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Weekend trading volume directly shrank by more than 60%, and with this small rebound of $BTC, I’m actually not too optimistic.
This morning when I opened OKX to check the market, my first impression was: the market suddenly became quiet.
The first chart shows that the 24-hour crypto market trading volume is about $464.7 billion, down more than 60% from the previous day. Weekend liquidity is naturally thinner, and combined with the divergence after the non-farm payroll data release.Weekend liquidity is naturally low, so even a slight selling pressure can create a dip. Shorting at this time is basically like picking up money.
On the macro side, there's no need to say much: non-farm payroll just passed, the rate hike meeting is coming at the end of the month, and US tech stocks are pulling back daily.
High-level stocks like SanDisk will keep falling endlessly once the overall environment worsens.
The passive buying from being included in the S&P 100 has long been exhausted. What is driving the price up now? Purely retail investors' faith?
For those wanting to short, you can still lightly try around 1717, set stop loss above 1800, target first 1650, and if it breaks, head down to 1550. $SNDK $ZEC ETH has rebounded, but institutions are still withdrawing. Is this rebound driven by new funds coming in, or are old shorts exiting?
This is the most important aspect of ETH to watch today.
ETH has returned to around $2680, with a slight increase over 24 hours; however, the US spot ETH ETF still saw a net outflow of about $17.3 million on October 2, totaling approximately $118 million outflow over the past five trading days.
In other words, the price is recovering, but ETF funds have not returned in sync.
More interestingly, ETH futures open interest has actually decreased by about $1 billion to $33.67 billion, with ETH liquidation volume in the past 24 hours only around $1.14 million, about 61% of which were short positions.
This indicates that the recent rebound is more likely driven by short covering and spot buying together, rather than a frenzy of leveraged long positions entering.
So the real contradiction for ETH now is:
The price wants to go up, but institutional funds have not fully returned.
On the upside, watch the $2770–$2800 range, which is currently a clear resistance zone.
On the downside, focus on around $2650; if broken, then observe $2600.
If ETF outflows begin to narrow and ETH climbs back above $2800, market attention may shift back to fund inflows.
Conversely, if the price continues to rebound but ETF outflows persist, this divergence will become increasingly concerning.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $ETH "Waiting for the minutes, also waiting for a breakthrough"
On the macro side, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will release the September meeting minutes. Besent says the rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with the global trend, and risk appetite remains influenced. In the crypto space, BTC, ETH, and SOL continue to tug at each other, making chasing orders prone to reversals.
$BTC: After testing 85650, it lost ground and only found buyers near 83785. The rebound is capped below 84000. The 15-minute short moving average is turning up, and the MACD green bars are narrowing, which can only be considered a recovery. If 83850 holds, 84000 is possible; only a volume-driven attack can reach 84300/84500. If 83500 breaks, long positions should withdraw first, and 83350 is a level to watch for support.
$ETH: At 2697, it has reclaimed the three moving averages, with MA20 at 2689, showing a more proactive trend. 2700 is a key level; breaking it targets 2720 and 2740; if 2680 holds, the pullback is still considered a strong consolidation.
$SOL: Fluctuating around 118.5, with MA20 at 118.23, 119 is the switch. If 120 doesn't break, chasing longs is prone to pullbacks; losing 117.8 leads to testing 117 again.
Currently, ETH holds a slight advantage, but whether BTC can hold above 84000 still influences the entire market. The more it grinds, the more patience is needed—wait for confirmation, don't rush the run. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Hot Coin Data Ranking｜Last 15 Minutes
$RESOLV was biased towards selling in the first two segments, with buying and selling nearly balanced in the last segment: the entire segment had 25.4% active buying, the last segment was 49.8%, and the fifteen-minute price change was -0.67%. The seller's advantage did not continue until the end of the window, and the most recent segment showed no obvious one-sided transaction advantage.There are new developments in the US-Iran negotiations, but what the market should really focus on might not be the nuclear issue, but the Strait of Hormuz.
On October 4, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Iran has responded to the US proposal. Iran believes the US proposal is similar to previous ones, still focusing on the nuclear issue, while Iran hopes to shift the negotiation focus to the Strait of Hormuz.
What does this mean?
If the two sides cannot resolve the issues related to the Strait of Hormuz through negotiations, energy transportation and geopolitical risk premiums may continue to exist.
The transmission path to the global market remains very clear:
Hormuz risk → crude oil transportation costs → oil prices → inflation expectations → US Treasury yields → rate cut expectations → risk assets → BTC.
So now, we cannot just watch whether the US and Iran are negotiating, but more importantly, whether the negotiations truly improve the transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
If the two sides make substantial progress on issues like passage through the strait and energy transportation, oil prices and risk premiums may fall back, and BTC could instead gain liquidity support.
Conversely, if negotiations continue to stall, Hormuz risks will escalate, oil prices and US Treasury yields will rise simultaneously, and BTC must guard against risk assets coming under pressure again.
My judgment is that the key short-term variable for BTC is still not a single crypto positive, but whether oil prices and US Treasury yields can continue to decline.
Next, focus on three indicators: crude oil prices, US Treasury yields, and BTC capital flows.
Negotiation news can bring emotional fluctuations, but what truly determines the sustainability of the market trend is whether energy risks can decrease.Address 0xde8..d9524 has become the address with the highest unrealized profit on ETH positions on Hyperliquid, with an unrealized profit of $16.52 million. This address has gradually established long ETH positions since mid-August, currently holding about 30,300 ETH, valued at approximately $81.96 million, with an average entry price of $2134.45 and a return rate of 407.96%. Additionally, this address has placed a limit sell order at $4000, which is 49% higher than the current coin price.$PUMP Can you still chase this wave?
I think chasing above 0.0064 is just providing liquidity exit for those unlocking.
This recent rise is not because the fundamentals suddenly improved, but because of buybacks pushing it.
Pump.fun's fee revenue in the last 24 hours is about 2.4 million USD, with about half going into PUMP buybacks;
In the past two days, about 200 million tokens are burned daily, with single-day buyback amounts around 1.2 million USD.
So the buying pressure is real.
PUMP has also been pulled from 0.0037 to near 0.006 USD, with nearly a 30% increase in the last 7 days.
But the buybacks are real, and the unlocking is real too.
In mid-October, there will be another unlocking of about 40 million USD level, market tracking data shows about 9 billion PUMP tokens.
Moreover, the team's and early investors' first cliff has passed, and now continuous releases are happening.
Now some in the market are starting to question:
Why did KOLs suddenly turn collectively bullish, just as their own allocations begin to unlock?
Daily buybacks exceed 1 million USD, but monthly new supply is at tens of millions USD level.
This is not $HYPE
HYPE has a perpetual contract fee machine behind it; PUMP is more about sentiment + buybacks + Meme cycles.
My current strategy:
Do not chase above 0.0064, holders can reduce a bit first,
Wait to return near 0.0055, then try to open long positions in batches, stop loss at 0.0048;
Whether buybacks can continue to absorb the unlocking is the real lifeline for this PUMP wave.No way, is Elon Musk's group surging again tonight?
$TSLA is rising, and $SPCX is also going up.
At first glance, it looks like the market suddenly started collectively chasing Musk, but after a detailed breakdown by babala, although these two stocks share a common background for their rise, the real catalysts are not exactly the same.
Let's start with the common environment.
In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Market concerns about the Fed continuing to raise rates in the short term have clearly cooled, and the Nasdaq rose about 1.2% on Friday.
With easing interest rate pressure, high-valuation, high-volatility growth stocks like TSLA and SPCX naturally attract more capital attention.
For TSLA, the most direct catalyst is the better-than-expected Q3 delivery data.
In Q3, total deliveries were 486,532 vehicles, with production at 464,391 vehicles. Actual deliveries significantly exceeded previous market expectations. This data at least temporarily alleviates market worries about weakening demand, so TSLA closed up 4.65% on Friday, and the OKX contract price is still around 371.
However, deliveries exceeding production also mean some growth comes from inventory digestion. What will truly determine whether the trend can continue strengthening is the October 21 earnings report, especially the automotive gross margin, discount levels, and cash flow.
Price-wise, TSLA is looking at whether it can break through and hold 374–375 in the short term; only then will it have a chance to challenge 380–387 again. If it rallies but then falls back below 360, the gains from this delivery data are likely to turn into consolidation.
The logic behind SPCX's rise leans more toward "execution payoff."
SpaceX just completed three launches within 13 hours, including NASA's crewed mission, the Transporter rideshare mission, and a U.S. reconnaissance mission executed by the Falcon Heavy rocket.
The market isn't buying just one rocket launch but its increasingly stable high-frequency launches, rocket reusability, and commercial delivery capabilities. SPCX rose directly 7.35% on Friday, closing near 158.96, and tonight the contract is still trading around 159.
The most important level for SPCX now is 160.
If it can truly hold above 160, it indicates that capital is willing to continue assigning higher valuations to launch services, Starlink, and subsequent Starship progress; if it fails to break through for a long time, a short-term pullback to 154–155 is likely, with further support around 149–150.
So the reason both are rising together tonight is not just because they belong to Musk.
Macroscopically, it's the growth stock rebound brought by weak nonfarm payrolls; on the individual stock level, TSLA relies on delivery data, and SPCX on continuous launches and execution.
The sentiment is indeed strong, but both are now near short-term resistance. babala thinks that going forward, it's not just about "whether they will keep rising," but more about whether they can hold after breaking through.Midday Market Analysis🔥
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields hit new stage highs again, with the 10-year reaching a high of 5.34%. The policy side remains relatively calm, viewing this round of rate increases as a global common trend with no intention to intervene for now.
The weaker non-farm payrolls only caused a brief dip in yields, which quickly rebounded, indicating that the market currently focuses on long-term inflation and debt supply for pricing. Short-term data is unlikely to change the overall pattern. The high interest rate environment persists, directly raising the holding cost of non-interest-bearing assets, and BTC's short-term rebound continues to be suppressed.
Short-term market pressure exists, but the long-term logic is actually strengthened: the burden of U.S. debt interest continues to expand, debt risks accumulate, and fiat currency credit keeps weakening, which benefits BTC's hard asset narrative.
Personal suggestion: remain on the sidelines and avoid chasing the rally. BTC is oscillating repeatedly between 84,000 and 87,000. Wait for interest rates to cool down or stabilize before choosing an opportunity to participate. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 [Old Leek Observation] $PUMP Movement
$PUMP Today, a wallet that had been dormant for over a year repurchased 383 million PUMP tokens.
Worth approximately $2.4 million. At the same time, a newly created wallet withdrew 189 million PUMP tokens from an exchange, worth about $1.18 million.[Exchange Update | STG Merges into ZRO: Binance Halts Spot Trading the Day After Tomorrow, Bitget Follows on the 8th]
Cross-chain project Stargate (STG) merges into LayerZero (ZRO). Media cites Binance: swap rate 1 STG = 0.08634 ZRO; at 11:00 on October 6 Beijing time, STG/USDT spot trading will be suspended and delisted; from 11:30, deposits and withdrawals of old STG will be paused; small conversions will be removed at 10:00 tomorrow. Bitget: STG/USDT will be delisted and withdrawals suspended at 10:00 on October 8; Earn tokens will be delisted at 11:00 on October 7, with the same ratio.
Important: This marks the cutoff for holding and deposits/withdrawals, not a simple negative delisting. Those still holding STG should watch each platform’s schedule; imitation sites offering "exchange services" only recognize the official website.
On the same day: Binance futures will liquidate and delist PROMPTUSDT and two other pairs at 17:00 tomorrow; Bitget PoolX locks ETH with 200,000 USDT, opening at 15:00 on October 5.
Market: Coinbase spot BTC is about $85,100 (around 16:22 Beijing time). ZRO on OKX is about 2.00 USDT.
Opinion: Check your positions and deposits/withdrawals according to the official calendar. This does not constitute investment advice.Just now, 228 million CRO from the Cronos community pool were completely burned.
Cronos Network (ChainCatcher/Odaily/Shenchao): Two tokenomics proposals have been approved by community vote; 228 million CRO from the community pool have been burned, with a total of 428 million CRO burned; 100% of the revenue generated by Cronos Ult and Cronos Launch will be used for open market buybacks of CRO and monthly burns, with hashes publicly disclosed; staking rewards will still be funded by the strategic reserve. At the time of writing, OKX CRO is about 0.068. Burn ≠ price direction, buyback scale fluctuates with revenue. Not investment advice.🔥The faster the rise, the more you need to ask who is taking over
$HYPE , $SUI , and $WLD all collectively rebounded today. The market looks hot, but the fundamentals are weak.
WLD rose nearly 8% in a single day, just a rebound from overselling not breaking out of the weak range; SUI has risen over 60% in a month with heavy trapped positions above creating huge selling pressure on the way up.
Key levels:
HYPE faces strong resistance at 91.3 and 94; SUI needs to hold above 1.20.
#DailyOrbit $BTC It seems that everyone is placing a lot of importance on whether spot ETFs are flowing in or out right now. They get excited when they see net inflows and dare to bottom-fish, but get scared when they see net outflows and immediately sell! In fact, spot ETFs don't have that much impact on the market. Sometimes the ETF shows a net outflow for the day, but it flowed out in the morning and flowed in at night, just with less inflow than outflow. Although it's a net outflow, the impact on the next day's market is positive. So looking only at the ETF's daily fund flow doesn't show the full picture. Also, a few years ago when there were no spot ETFs, $BTC still had a long bull run, right? I think spot ETF fund inflows and outflows can only be used as a reference and shouldn't be treated as a universal key!Is $ZEC still considered the leader among privacy coins? We need to distinguish between two dimensions
Many people are confused about who leads the privacy sector. The core point is: by market capitalization and the current bull market narrative, ZEC is the market leader; by native privacy capability, XMR is the technical leader.
In this bull market, ZEC's market cap has significantly surpassed XMR's, with over 60% of the privacy sector's funds concentrated in ZEC. Expectations for Grayscale ETF approval and the conclusion of the SEC investigation have made institutional funds willing to enter. Its liquidity and market momentum overwhelmingly outperform other coins in the sector, making it the core target of this privacy narrative and the undisputed leader in terms of capital.
However, its shortcoming is clear: ZEC's privacy is optional and not enabled by default; transactions are transparent unless shielded. In contrast, XMR enforces privacy on every transaction by default, offering stronger pure anonymity, and the hardcore privacy community still recognizes XMR.
From a market perspective, after a surge, it is now consolidating at a high level with volatile short-term fluctuations. The biggest risk remains regulation; privacy coins have always been a regulatory focus, and any negative policy could cause a severe pullback.
In terms of trading, if you believe in the privacy narrative, you can hold a base position to speculate, but it is absolutely not suitable to heavily buy at high levels. Make sure to set stop-loss and take-profit points. 大空军伯里（Michael Burry） 9 月 28 号和10月1号两篇报告我看了 毕竟，做交易 是为挣钱的，不是单独为了看多看多的 兼听则明，偏暗则阴
我总结一下 他再赌2027年前有一次很深很快的下跌 股票空头全平了。$MU $NBIS $CAT $SOXX $CRWV $NVDA $PLTR，换成认沽。新开了 $MET 的多年期 put，行权价在 70 一带。CoreWeave 平了，put 还没买到他觉得便宜的价格。 多头那边，63 附近加了 Sprouts，12 出头加了 QXO。 他说时间表提前了。原先基准是 2028，现在觉得未来一年就会破。理由是周末研究，加上 Ares 那篇秋季信贷。VIX 低，put 相对不贵，所以用期权加杠杆。 这个动作本身我能理解。 股票空头在这种行情里是无限亏。美光他一边空一边看着冲向 1000。换成 put，亏法至少有底。税损收割他也自己说了， 但结构和时间表，是两回事。 结构这边，我觉得他借 Ares 说的那些，大方向是对的。而且不是他一个人在讲。 五大云厂商已经签、还没起租的数据中心租约，大概 6620 亿。未来承诺接近 1 万亿。Weekend liquidity is really poor
I originally thought ZEC1300 could hold steady, but the first order was placed too hastily
Then I placed a second order, pulled the average price down, and successfully made a profit!
Because the leverage was a bit high, I exited all positions. Wishing everyone wealth 🫡 $BTC BTC this month (October), don't be blinded by the slogan "Uptober (October rally)". It now looks more like a buildup before a breakout—there's a selling wall at $85K overhead and a lifeline at $82K below. October will most likely see a tug-of-war within this range, with the real turning point depending on the Fed at the end of the month. The current price is $84,800, which has retraced somewhat from the September high. The Q3 surge of +43% was too rapid and needs to be digested.
First, let's talk about the pressure overhead. There are many sell orders around $85,000, and above that, between $84K–86.5K lies a dense trapped position area of 1.39 million BTC, which can't be broken through with just one bullish candle. Recently, ETF buying power has cooled down; on 10/2, net inflows were only $31.7 million, and on 9/30, there was even a net outflow of 1,780 BTC. More subtly, leverage signals are conflicting: retail perpetual contract funding rates have surged from 3% to 10%, showing strong long sentiment, but institutional CME futures positions are actually decreasing—this divergence often means a short-term shakeout is still needed.
But the mid-term foundation remains intact. Spot ETF cumulative net inflows have reached $58.1 billion, with total assets of $111 billion; core PCE dropped to 3.0% in August (below expectations), and the market is pricing a 74% chance of a pause in rate hikes at the October FOMC; Citibank just raised its 12-month target from $82,000 to $113,000.I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
This week's highlight: The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will successively release the minutes of their September meetings.
Federal Reserve side: The market has priced in rate cuts; the key focus of the minutes is on the "subsequent pace"—whether it will be continuous easing or a wait-and-see approach. A dovish tilt → risk assets continue to live, $BTC /$ETH catch up; a hawkish tilt → expectations pull back, crypto follows US stocks AI is no longer the undisputed "AI symbol" in the crypto space; its ceiling has been discounted.
As long as companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, and the public continue to use "AI," this impact will gradually fade;
If the giants also start calling it SI, the consensus will truly be shaken.
Currently, Musk still calls AI "AI" on X, but calls it SI when meeting Trump offline.
Next, watch the earnings reports of giants like Nvidia to see how they refer to AI.
Then there is the SI 60-day legislative periA 50x $BTC long shows +265K USDT (~110% ROI), but with liquidation at 77,697, one sharp drop could wipe out the gains fast. ⚠️
Realized P&L is still -18K USDT. A small 7x SKHY long remains a cautious test.
Leverage can boost returns, but risk management and survival come first.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge$PUMP short opened at 0.00639 after the token surged from 0.0037. 📉
Price is struggling near 0.0064, with 0.00648 acting as the key level. Break above it and I’m out; rejection could trigger a deeper pullback.
$SAND short from 0.0749 is still open.
No chasing. Just waiting for weakness. 🐻
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #BessentTreasuryYieldsTherefore, Robinhood expanding stock token issuance is the core driver of AI.
Secondly, there is the leading effect and the Long platform.
Funds concentrate on the leaders, and the Long platform's fee recycling and burning are bonuses, not fundamentals.
Will Trump's renaming to SI have a lasting impact?
It will have an impact, but it targets the "symbol premium of the word AI," not the essence of AI. The $STRK direction seems consistent, but the volume contraction shows no clear stance
$STRK is up 27.98% in the last 24 hours, currently priced at 0.05493. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour structures are relatively strong, yet the current trading volume is only 0.49 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. The direction is consistent, but participation hasn't kept up, which is exactly the most debatable point right now.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 22.01% above the 1-hour support at 0.04284 and about 3.19% below the resistance at 0.05668. Putting these two distances together helps to see which side requires more evidence. Looking only at the price change can easily mistake the space already traveled as if it hasn't started yet.
Volume does not endorse the trend: the current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.49 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars. Low volume can also move prices quickly, but sustainability must be proven by the next phase of the market. A single touch or a long candlestick is not enough to draw conclusions.
It’s easier to understand this phase of the market as an equipment acceptance test: running without load doesn’t count as completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to conclusions. Let the key levels provide results first, then discussing direction will be more honest. Do you think consistent direction is more important, or that the volume contraction will cause this move to quickly lose momentum? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle Bull.$PONS I was feeling so-so today, but opening my account made me feel better. While everyone else was still watching, I noticed clear resistance above; every time it surged up, it fell short, signaling a short position strategy. Don't rush to switch to long.
PONS entry at 0.5583, current price 0.4213, +491.13% gives the answer, this profit feels good.
First take off 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection. Don't panic on the rebound; the cost price is the support level. Pocket the big portion first, don't be greedy for the last bit.
Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking. Don't let profits inflate your ego, don't despair over pullbacks.
If you miss this wave, don't chase it; wait for the next signal to act, there will be more opportunities.
$ADA $ETH First, let's present the opposing view: Even if $QNT's direction is correct, the current position may cause followers to incur higher costs.
The current price is 260.97, about 5.48% away from the 1-hour support at 246.68, and about 6.66% away from the resistance at 278.34. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
Don't rush to define the direction for $QNT yet. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts are still conflicting, making it easiest at this time to mistake a rebound for a reversal.
The 1-hour chart is slightly weak with an RSI of 56, while the 4-hour chart is slightly strong with an RSI of 54. Short-term sentiment and the larger cycle structure are not aligned. Positions like this are most prone to mistaking a rebound for a reversal or confusing a gear shift for a peak.
My observation line is clear: Only by standing back above and holding 278.34 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 246.68, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 223.51. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 320.94 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
I don't only share when my judgments are correct. How the price chooses between 278.34 and 246.68 next will be publicly reviewed in the next round.
If you could only choose one timeframe to make a judgment, would you choose 1 hour or 4 hours?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bull.My bottom-fishing advice for $AI:
First, look at the fundamentals. The most fundamental aspect of this project is the dividend from tokenizing stocks on the blockchain.
AI is tied to Nvidia, with the main pool being NVDA. The more Nvidia on-chain, the deeper the AI pool, and the larger the market cap it can support.~$100,660,000 value of $ETH left spot ETFs this week.
> Monday: +$17.10M
> Tuesday: -$2.81M
> Wednesday: -$59.58M
> Thursday: -$55.37M
Last week, ETFs were green every day and attracted $690M. This week has completely reversed.
Total assets currently reach $17.71B.Big BTC and second BTC~ have started "playing dead" and accumulating momentum again.
$BTC 84600, $ETH 2678, the 15-minute chart looks like a desert, the market is on pause.
Lack of volume is the biggest embarrassment right now. The buy and sell orders are sparse, even small orders can cause long wicks. BTC ETF funds have just started flowing back in, but the strength is far from explosive; ETH, on the other hand, has seen continuous outflows, and the forced support feeling is becoming more obvious.
$SOL is still the follower, it rises when the big brother rises, but falls even harder when the big brother falls, grinding sideways until it’s too lazy to even fluctuate.
The hardest thing now is not the drop, but the grind.
Only I am still silently holding positions. A word of advice: when the market lacks volume, don’t force guessing the direction. Staying out of the market is not admitting defeat; being able to hold steady without making rash moves is a trading skill itself.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $PUMP short position opened directly! Many people might be wondering, with shorts currently showing a paper loss of over 6 million, how do they still dare to keep shorting? Many only focus on the shorts' unrealized losses, ignoring the hidden risks behind. Over 80% of longs in the market have already made profits, with total unrealized gains of 11.92 million, and the long positions are twice the size of the shorts. The incremental buying power that can enter the market is basically exhausted, a large number of profit-taking positions are waiting to be realized, and selling pressure hangs overhead. Will there be funds to push the price up later? Afraid of further rallies? Honestly, yes. But even more unwilling to rush in at the high point where the vast majority are profiting and become the bag holder. This short position has already been entered; whether it is right or wrong will be tested by the market in the coming days.$FIL: Halving countdown, don't mistake a bull trap for a reversal
Over the weekend, $FIL suddenly surged, pushing the price close to 1.08, peaking at 1.077, but then failed to hold and the market weakened again. Many are shouting "the big move is coming," but the closer the halving gets, the more cautious you should be about emotions being prematurely exhausted.
With just about ten days left until the halving, if expectations have already been priced in, the actual event could become a starting point for selling pressure. The key support level now is 0.95: if it holds, there is still room for consolidation; if it gets pierced, a slow downtrend will likely begin, making it much tougher for bulls than now.
At this point, shorting with the trend seems like a money-making opportunity, but beware of sudden sharp rebounds. The real danger is not that the price hasn't risen, but that everyone assumes it will continue to rise. The market must break to establish a new direction. The selling pressure after the halving might be heavier than expected.
This is just my personal review and does not constitute investment advice. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 The fastest rising often has the emptiest base.
Today $HYPE, $SUI, and $WLD all surged together, the market is very hot, but looking closer, the support is not solid. WLD rose nearly 8% intraday, more like a rebound after a deep drop, not like new funds are continuously buying. SUI has surged over 60% in a month, with all the chips above waiting to break even; the higher it goes, the heavier the selling pressure. HYPE is active around 91.3, but since it hasn't broken 94, it is still testing under previous high resistance.
Watch three key levels:
HYPE must break through 94, which was the starting point of the previous plunge; if it can't get past, it remains a ceiling.
SUI needs to hold above 1.20, otherwise the rally is likely a false breakout.
WLD must hold 0.51 as a floor and not easily fall back below it.
None of the three have crossed these lines, so this can only be called a recovery, not a trend. The difference between a rebound and a reversal is whether the breakout can be maintained.
The capital side is also uncooperative. BTC and ETH spot ETFs are both seeing net outflows, and market heat is cooling. In this environment, expecting altcoins to strengthen independently has a low success rate.
On the news front, the SEC plans to relax institutional self-custody and the ADAPT tax bill, but these are long-term preparations and won't save short-term sentiment. Don't take long-term narratives as reasons to chase highs today. The real signal is breaking resistance with volume, not momentary excitement on the intraday chart. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 15 days left until CME launches $BCH futures.
On the announcement day, BCH surged over 25% to $338; now at 317.9, about 6% lower than then. It was hit down to 296.3 in the early morning, then climbed back up steadily.
The money bought in advance on expectations has already gone through a round; next, it depends on whether there will be real institutional transactions to take over after the launch on the 19th. The launch itself is still awaiting regulatory review. The range these two days Do you know how far the US government shutdown has gone? The SEC has directly entered a funding interruption, employees aren't getting paid, so who is going to review your ETF applications?
Over ninety crypto ETF applications are lined up and all frozen. Litecoin, SOL, XRP are all waiting in line. It's not a rejection, nor an approval, just four words: nobody is processing them.
My first reaction when I saw this was not panic, but laughter. The coin issuers are anxious, the market makers are anxious, but the SEC is not—they've stopped working and are on holiday. What are the holders hoping for? Hoping for a confirmation in October, but the SEC isn't even in the office.
Ethereum is at 2704 today, moving only a few tenths of a percent all day, and no one is willing to make a move. This market is like this: the news is loud, but the price couldn't care less. $ETH What a mess, getting stuck even though there's no market action on the weekend!
On weekends, the market has little liquidity and basically no price movement.
I originally planned to open a small position, take a quick profit, and leave, but who knew I’d get stuck right after opening it.
Although I’m not worried about liquidation, it’s still very frustrating!
Right now, there’s no strong new catalyst in the market.
There’s no continuous institutional buying relay; instead, retail traders, leverage, and stop-loss orders are battling it out.
At times like this, once the price moves down, stop-losses, liquidations, and active selling can easily cause self-inflicted damage.
So, I think taking a short position for a quick trade is reasonable.
Overall,
I believe $BTC will still oscillate between 83,000 and 87,000, so short on rallies and long on dips works fine. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 "The Three Travelers of the Grinding Valley"
In the night, $BTC is like a drunk tightrope walker: it touched 85650, then fell back to 83785, and just as it looked up, someone sold. On the 15-minute chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 quietly turn upward, MACD catches its breath. It stands before the 83850 threshold; only when stable will it dare to knock on the 84000 door; with volume surge, it aims for 84300, 84500. If it slips below 83500, the bulls retreat first, watching if hands catch at 83350.
$ETH is like a youth, stepping back onto the three moving averages at 2697, with MA20 at 2689. 2700 is the door crack; pushing through reveals 2720, 2740. If 2680 doesn't break, it won't retreat.
$SOL is most like a knife sharpener, rubbing back and forth around 118.5, with MA20 at 118.23. 119 is the blade edge; only after passing 120 will it chase; breaking below 117.8, it returns to 117 to test the cold light.
Those chasing the rise suffer the most. In the short term, ETH shines brightest; but whether BTC can take 84000 still holds the heartbeat of the whole market. In Grinding Valley, patience breaks the deadlock before impulse.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 The moment the chest was opened, I saw a heart hypertrophied by a valuation of 1.4 trillion USD, but the coronary arteries were not yet connected, relying on a 30 billion unit extracorporeal circulation blood pump to maintain perfusion.
This is not a market illness; it’s like going into surgery before the preoperative diagnosis is complete. The 3 billion financing is just arterial cannulation; once the blood pump runs, the monitor looks good, but no one knows if the myocardium itself has contractile force. The formal terms are unsigned, equivalent to an incomplete preoperative discussion; the IPO delay is like postponing the heart’s resuscitation window. Annual revenue approaching 70 billion, growth rate of 70%, and doubling corporate income represent improved cardiac output and collateral circulation opening—but no matter how rich the collateral circulation, it cannot replace the native coronary arteries.
Trump proposed a government equity participation model similar to Intel’s, which sounds like installing a mechanical assist device in the heart. Assist devices can support blood pressure but do not solve myocardial pathology; moreover, if anticoagulation management is unbalanced, thrombosis and bleeding will simultaneously threaten the same surgical field. Valuation is preload, financing is volume perfusion, regulation is the pacing wire, revenue is myocardial contraction, and credit spread is coronary perfusion pressure. Once perfusion pressure drops, distal myocardium becomes ischemic first; the price crash on the monitor is just pain, not the lesion.
The linkage of XMU on-chain targets is like intraoperative transesophageal ultrasound: you can see spontaneous cloud-like echoes but may not clearly see abnormal wall motion. Insufficient volume and depth are like pericardial tamponade, restricting diastolic filling; no matter how much arterial transfusion, blood can’t enter the left ventricle. Derivative leverage crowding is a sign of impending ventricular fibrillation; the later the defibrillation, the more severe the myocardial stunning. The market treating rumors as pathology is like mistaking premature beats for myocardial infarction; treating valuation as cardiac output is like taking monitor numbers as real perfusion.
I’m now only watching a few vital signs: whether the formal terms are signed, the rhythm of fund arrival, whether corporate client renewals are genuine, whether the government equity structure is implemented, and whether the IPO window is restored. Without these, any position increase is like suturing an unclear rupture—the bleeding stops in the surgical field but may cause pericardial tamponade. This heart is currently in a high-output state with coronary reserve exhaustion; extracorporeal circulation can temporarily support blood pressure, but myocardial protection solution is being diluted. XMU’s pulse is just a transient cloud on ultrasound; true abnormal wall motion has not fully manifested. I don’t care if it beats today; I care about the first hour after resuscitation—whether lactate continues to rise, mixed venous oxygen saturation drops, and whether coronary blood flow truly returns to the distal myocardium. #openai$1.4tfundingETF Funds Rapidly Cool Down: Last Week Was More Like a Pulse, Not a New Baseline
This week, crypto ETF funds have clearly downgraded. BTC funds only attracted $259 million to $280 million, a sharp drop from the $2.4 billion surge last week; on October 1 alone, there was an outflow of $150 million. ETH was relatively steadier, with a net inflow of $110 million, but also saw a $14 million withdrawal on the same day.
The key point is not a "bear turn," but a "cooling off." Neither BTC nor ETH crashed; both remain in the green, indicating that funds have not collectively fled, but the willingness to chase highs has rapidly declined. Last week's $2.4 billion looked more like an event-driven abnormal peak rather than a sustainable new baseline. With #USNFPDataCools, the market is more sensitive to macro data, and risk appetite is beginning to contract.
Next, we need to watch three points: whether BTC can maintain net inflows, whether ETH can continue its relative strength, and whether data like non-farm payrolls will provide new direction. Currently, it looks more like a cooling period rather than a trend reversal. Don't treat a single week's surge as the norm, nor a single week's cooldown as the end.Brother Maji's operations these days are simply legendary!
He precisely escaped the top at high positions and dared to decisively enter at low positions, with the total exposure fluctuating between 141 million and 165 million, making this wave's rhythm very worthy of review 📊
$BTC
Initially holding 536 coins, with a slight loss, then decisively reducing to 369 coins, perfectly escaping the top.
After the market warmed up, he made a big move to increase holdings back to 546 coins, then reduced again to 405 coins to realize profits.
Latest holding is 378 coins, average holding price 84,700, liquidation price 66,000, the long-short rhythm is very well timed.
$ETH
Latest holding is 36,500 coins, average holding price 2688, liquidation price 2500, but the funding fee is a bit risky, reaching 1.23 million USD.
Hopefully one day he can come to $CORE and do some shorting too 😅😅😅
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Green does not mean strength. It only indicates that the close is higher than the open. Treating color as a conclusion is equivalent to discarding the path, position, and capital.
Ask three questions before deciding whether this candlestick is worth watching.
Where is the close? Not relative to the open, but relative to the previous high, the midpoint of the range, and the volume concentration area. Closing at the upper edge of the contest zone is not the same as barely closing green or leaving a long upper shadow.
How much volume is there? The same green body, with volume pushing above a key level, versus shrinking volume drifting green, can have opposite meanings. Without volume, color is just decoration.
What happens next? A single candlestick is a result, not a signal. If the next candlestick engulfs it, the previous "bullish" indication is invalidated. The background confirms the trend, then the candle carries information.
Engulfing, hammer, and three white soldiers are just retrospective labels. Reading a single green candlestick in isolation is substituting color for the market.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Drawing the stop-loss line on the load-bearing wall—that's the blueprint mistake most traders make.
In any super high-rise building, if the positioning error of fire escapes, shear walls, or the core tube exceeds three centimeters, the entire building's seismic rating immediately drops a level. Position management is the same: it's not a beautification plan during the decoration phase; it's the structural calculation report. Stop-loss is a preset settlement joint, not crack grouting patched after a collapse. None of those liquidation accounts you see are due to "bad strategies"; all of them had their main structure skimp on rebar during the pouring phase.
Perpetual contracts mapped from US stock targets present even subtler issues. Products like $xSKHY essentially build additions on someone else's foundation. The underlying spot liquidity of the target, index component weights, and cross-market settlement time differences—these are existing pile foundations you cannot survey. What you can calculate is only the upper structure, but what determines whether this building can stand is precisely the soil layer beyond your blueprint. Once the confined aquifer shifts, no matter how beautiful your steel structure is, it’s left hanging.
Look at those experience-sharing topics, from stop-loss strategies to position sizing, from maximum loss to optimal trades. When I do design reviews, the type of person I fear most is one who talks endlessly about the facade but goes silent when asked about load transfer paths. A true veteran won't just show you renderings; they'll spread out detailed node drawings and tell you which beam was deliberately thickened for seismic redundancy and which part was reserved to handle uneven settlement. Failed trade records have more exploration value than successful ones because they are geological reports, not brochures.
The biggest structural risk in the industry now is leverage. Everyone wants to add floors; no one wants to recalculate the foundation. Funding rates are wind loads, sentiment indices are thermal stresses; in a bull market, these are offset by thermal expansion and invisible; once it cools down, contraction cracks fully expose themselves on the gable wall. True scalability is not about how tall you can build but how much safety reserve remains after encountering extreme conditions.
A good design blueprint must withstand construction errors, material deviations, and thirty years of load. The standard for a good trading structure blueprint is the same. #okxtradervoices$SNDK The most glaring issue right now is not volatility, but the "should rise but doesn't" situation. External risk appetite is warming up, risk assets are performing one after another, yet it seems forgotten by capital. The old market saying proves true again: when positive news can't push the stock price, the positive news itself turns into negative.
The reason is simple: chips are loosening, and new money is cautious. David Tepper had no shares left by Q2, Renaissance Technologies cut its position by 99.4%, smart money exited early. Morningstar's fair value is about 1000, current price is over 70% premium, both valuation and capital conditions are flashing red. Institutions are withdrawing, valuation is expensive, and positive news is dulled; these three combined naturally bias the direction bearish.
Without new money entering, no matter how hot the sector is, it's just someone else's market. Once sentiment falls, high valuations will be cleared first, and valuation reversion may be faster than expected. Bottom-fishing now is not contrarian investing, but taking over from those exiting. It's not too late to reconsider when chips settle, prices return to reasonable range, and new capital reappears.
$BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 The narrative of SOL is shifting from "fast chain" to "institutional-grade financial infrastructure".
The fourth truth: $7.3 billion in open interest contracts, shorts have piled up a grave below 120
Back to the liquidation data.
SOL's open interest contracts have reached $7.29 billion, continuing to grow during the price rally. This means leveraged funds are continuously entering, not exiting.
The short position structure is extremely fragile. 87% of liquidations come from shorts, while longs remain unscathed. Those who shorted at 113, 115, and 118 believed that "SOL rose 25% from 96 to 120, so a pullback is due. 120 is strong resistance; breaking above it would be a false breakout."
When "120 is the top" becomes a consensus, it is the most dangerous trade.
Meanwhile, SOL's network data is providing fundamental support for the bulls:
$BTC $SOL $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Institutions are not "just buying a little SOL on the side," they are "placing a heavier bet on SOL than on XRP."
The third truth: 90 banks in North Dakota have integrated SOL into the US interbank payment system.
This is the most underestimated piece of news in this rally.
On October 1st, banking technology provider Fiserv announced that its digital asset platform officially entered the production phase. The first practical use case is Roughrider Coin—a bank-supervised interbank payment token in North Dakota, running on Solana. More than 90 banks and credit unions in North Dakota are involved.
Do you understand what this means?
SOL is no longer just a "public chain." It has become the infrastructure of the US interbank payment system.
The specific mechanism is: participating institutions access Roughrider Coin through Fiserv’s existing "Commercial Center" online banking system. Initiation, approval, and settlement all go through the ACH and wire transfer channels already used by banks, so bank employees don’t need to learn a new system. Minting only occurs after the transfer confirmation from the institution’s operational account to the designated account is completed, and the token is automatically burned once it reaches the recipient’s wallet—the design goal is to keep token balances low. $SOL $SAND $SAND
There are a total of 255 whales. 110 are bulls, with an average entry price of 0.06101 and unrealized profits of over 730,000; 145 are bears, with an average entry price of 0.07334, currently in an unrealized loss state. The short positions are larger in volume but are underwater. After a spike in the candlestick, it has pulled back and entered a short-term consolidation.
Offensive level: 0.0795
Defensive level: 0.0720Originally cleared ZEC, thinking the account could breathe a sigh of relief, but NEAR weakened and became the new loss item. Market trends never follow people's expectations.
$BTC｜Account ballast
Cost 84044, current price 84827, unrealized profit 464.43U, return 18.45%. Defense level raised to 77826; if not broken, it is considered a shakeout. This profit supports the account safety cushion.
$SOL｜Strong target, isolated margin demonstration
Cost 117.41, current price 120.62, unrealized profit 116.67U, return 53.06%, margin rate 13.44%. Entered with isolated margin, achieving high returns while isolating risk from other positions.
$NEAR｜Dragging down the position
Cost 4.909, current price 4.8064, unrealized loss 95.86U, return rate -43.69%. Previously profitable, now deeply trapped. Full margin mode amplifies losses, continuously consuming profits brought by BTC and SOL.
⚠️ Personal position review only, not trading advice #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Nike's Q1 revenue is about $11.2 billion but it guides for a high single-digit decline for the full year. On Friday, it closed at 33.87, down about 3.6%. I'll observe first and not bottom-fish.
What I see: Q1 revenue about $11.2 billion, down 4%, down 5% excluding currency effects, diluted EPS $0.48, gross margin 42.8% (+60bps).
Greater China reported a 22% decline, 26% decline excluding currency effects, the most obvious drag.
The company’s FY27 outlook: revenue down high single digits, adjusted diluted EPS about $1.15–1.35 (excluding Pace about $0.15).
The Pace plan aims to save about $2.5 billion cumulatively by FY2031, with pre-tax expenses about $1 billion, including about $300 million in FY27.
On Friday, opened at 32.553, high 33.97, low 31.97, closed 33.87, previous close 35.15, down about $1.28, volume about 143 million.
My view: gross margin can still be raised a bit, but China and the overall guidance indicate demand is not yet stable.
Don’t mistake intraday rebounds from lows as confirmation of a bottom, and don’t fantasize about bottom-fishing over the weekend.
Simply put: the numbers are solid, but the reasons to chase the dip are not strong enough.
What I will do: observe, neither bottom-fish nor chase.
Wait to see if it holds around 33.97 before considering a rebound; if it breaks below about 31.97, admit defeat and watch.
Do you trust gross margin plus Pace to hold it up more, or fear China and the overall guidance will continue to drag?
$NKE $ADD $DECK
#Fed and ECB to release September meeting minutes #BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH funds continue outflowsLong and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 minutes
$SAND short positions have a relatively high unit holding cost: current 4-hour rate -0.1041%, price -0.92%, open interest +0.97%. Decline and increased positions occur simultaneously; holding shorts past settlement at the current rate will cause funding fees to lower the breakeven price.Today is the 43rd day of shorting ZEC, with 47 days left in the three-month plan. The cs coin has risen again; can we still short it???
$ZEC 1334
Current price 1334, supported by privacy narrative, rebound strength stronger than mainstream coins. RSI6=64.95 close to overbought, MACD red bars expanding, short-term bulls dominate.
Resistance: 1345‑1360, previous high 1412; Support: 1300, strong support 1283.
BTC: ETF funds are flowing back to support the market, but short-term indicators are overbought, requiring a pullback for digestion.
ETH: Still lacks independent incremental funds, price movement passively follows BTC, making it difficult to have an independent trend.
Summary
ZEC is short-term dominant but highly dependent on the overall market, approaching resistance levels, with high linkage risk; position control is essential.
Market review, not investment advice #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BTC $ETH $ZEC