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#贝森特: The rise in US Treasury yields aligns with the global trend. Why can't Bitcoin rally despite weaker non-farm payroll data?
The US Treasury Secretary came out to reassure the market,
stating that the rise in US Treasury yields is a common feature in global bond markets,
not a crisis unique to the US, so there's no need to panic for now.
But here's the key point.
Even if the non-farm payrolls disappoint and US Treasury yields briefly fall,
they quickly rebound to high levels.
The market worries that inflation remains sticky, significantly reducing rate cut expectations.
US Treasuries are the pricing anchor for capital.
With yields staying high, money prefers to earn risk-free interest.
Risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum naturally remain under pressure.
In the short term, it's hard to see a strong directional move,
most likely maintaining a choppy tug-of-war.
Don't blindly chase rallies; position sizes must be controlled.
Wait for clear signals from US Treasuries before seeking definite opportunities. $HOME When looking up at the moon, you also need to look down to pick up pennies.
This is the logic behind my simultaneous allocation to SPCX and Kweichow Moutai.
SPCX is the moon: ideals, growth, and a more distant future.
Kweichow Moutai is the sixpence at your feet: cash flow, dividends, and life itself. It frees you from worrying about your next meal, giving you the confidence and peace of mind to keep looking up at that bright moon.
Ideals stretch your vision far ahead, reality ensures your life is secure. Having both means you can walk steadily and see far.Just sold, and BTC immediately went up.
I really have to admit this market.
During the day, $SAND confused me in just over ten minutes, BTC held on for a whole day and night, but in the end, I just couldn’t hold on and cut my losses.
And what happened? As soon as I got off, $BTC slowly climbed back to 84,950.
What is this called?
Waiting specifically for me to cut losses before rising?
I was watching the 15-minute candlestick, seeing it push up step by step, neither fast nor slow, as if mocking me.
The negative news from Bitdeer selling coins couldn’t push it down, and the market returned to a bullish rhythm.
The worst part isn’t losing money, but:
I just admitted defeat, and it started to rise.
I know I can’t short now.
I know this is a bullish setup.
I also know I’m already emotional.
But the more I see it rise, the more I want to rush in and short it.
This is the most dangerous time in trading.
Losing money isn’t scary; what’s really easy to get carried away with is trying to win the money back with one trade after losing.
Hold back.
No chasing, no shorting, no revenge trading.
The market doesn’t owe me a rebound just because I lost money.
$BTC
#TradingVoice #BTC #TradeReview #Cryptocurrency #TradingMindset GLMR current price is 0.013353, daily chart stands firmly above the EMA moving average group, the trend structure still leans bullish, but the active sell volume has clearly surpassed the active buy volume, showing a divergence in buying and selling momentum. This pattern is not a healthy accumulation, but more like a high-level distribution.
The short-term liquidity dense zone is between 0.01365 and 0.01385. If the price quickly spikes into this area, it is very likely to trigger short stop losses and long chasing, completing a hunt on the long positions above. The short liquidation zone below is farther away, meaning there is actually more room for downward stop loss sweeps.
Just pulled over for half a minute, the urgent order calls made my pocket vibrate numb, but the market logic is already very clear. Do not chase longs; scale into short positions in batches when the rebound reaches the 0.01365 to 0.01385 range, set a defensive stop loss at 0.01410, first take profit target at 0.01280, and if broken, directly target 0.01240.
Keep position size within 20%. If the hourly candle closes back above 0.01405, the short logic fails, stop loss and exit without hesitation.
$GLMR
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在
@OKX星球 [Old Leek Observation] #SEC pauses crypto ETF reviews due to funding interruption
The project teams don’t understand, right? Have they paid their respects to the silver?
October just started, and the market-anticipated “ETF Cryptober” has already been hit with a brake. After the US government funding was interrupted, the SEC has currently suspended new crypto ETF reviews.
Simply put: no one is pushing forward new ETF applications for now. There are over 90 crypto ETF applications currently waiting.
But here’s a very key distinction: already listed ETFs are unaffected.
Products like IBIT, FBTC, and existing Grayscale products can still be traded as usual.
So this is not the SEC suddenly rejecting crypto ETFs.
Rather: government lacks funds to operate normally → SEC partially suspends work → new ETF approvals are overall delayed.
For the market, the real trouble is time. A batch of crypto ETFs that might have appeared concentrated in October will likely be postponed. But as long as the government resumes funding, these applications will continue to move forward.
So I actually think: this is more like a “delay,” not a “negative.”
If the government resumes operations later and the backlog of over 90 applications starts moving again, the ETF narrative might actually reconcentrate. $BTC $ETH $ZEC ZEC leads every rebound round, always emerging earlier than BTC and ETH.
In the past 12 hours, ZEC's trend has shown similar signs.
For example: on the 4H timeframe, it broke through the recent downtrend line and has consistently closed above the previous high support level.
The white line represents the downtrend line, and the red line is the previous high support level.
Therefore, following yesterday's post: I strongly favor a rebound in ZEC. (Whether it will reverse is uncertain, but I believe a rebound is highly likely after this decline).#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 The Fed and ECB are about to release the September meeting minutes, and the volatility of BTC and ETH probably won't stay this calm.
Many think the minutes just review old content, but the members' views inside can directly change market expectations for rate cuts. If the wording is hawkish, implying rate cuts will be delayed, funds will quickly exit high-risk assets, putting pressure on BTC and ETH to dip; if dovish, mentioning economic pressure and rising rate cut expectations, the market might rally.
The ECB side can't be ignored either; interest rate moves in Europe will influence global capital flows and indirectly affect risk appetite in crypto.
The market is currently oscillating within a range, and before the news lands, big money won't take a directional stance. When the minutes come out, sharp spikes triggering stop losses are common—false breakouts followed by reversals, a pattern seen often lately.
Don't heavily bet on direction ahead of time; with minutes like these, the worst is premature speculation. Wait for the content, see the real capital reaction before acting. For now, control position size, set stop losses, and don't let sudden volatility take your principal. $BTC $ETH $SOL The most dangerous thing on the ECG monitor is not ventricular fibrillation, but that flattened line still trembling slightly — $LRC is lying there right now.
24H down 2.21%, this is not the cause, it’s a symptom. Hypothermia, cold extremities. The real lesion lies deeper: short-term RSI 33.4, already slipped into the low perfusion zone, but not yet at the critical point requiring defibrillation; long-term RSI 46.7, sinus rhythm still present, indicating the myocardium itself is not necrotic, just underperfused.
Look at the Bollinger Bands image. In the short-term channel, the price is at 18%, only 0.3% from the lower band — equivalent to the aortic wall being stretched to just a single outer membrane, ready to tear at any moment. The mid-term channel is even more intriguing: the price is at an extremely low 11%, 0.9% from the lower band, but with 6.6% open space to the upper band. What does this mean? The chest cavity hasn’t been opened yet, the mediastinum still has some reserve. Systolic pressure is low, but there is no pericardial effusion causing compression.
So my judgment is: it’s not failure, it’s the compensatory phase before shock. The compensatory phase is actually the most dangerous — too many surgeons rush to open the chest while the patient still has a pulse, resulting in massive bleeding at the lowest blood pressure point.
My plan is to wait a bit. The ideal incision line is at -4.7% above the current price. Wait for the blood pressure to drop another level, the myocardium to cool a bit more, then block the circulation.
📈 Long:
Entry: $0.01 (current price -4.7%)
Take Profit 1: $0.01 (+6.0%)
Take Profit 2: $0.01 (+6.6%)
Stop Loss: $0.01 (-16.0%)
The -16.0% stop loss is not a recommendation, it’s the backup blood bag for the extracorporeal circulation machine. Once breached, it means it’s not just underperfusion, but an aortic dissection has ruptured into the pericardium — the only correct action then is to close the chest, stop, and record the time of death, not continue suturing.
The first target +6.0% is just enough to suture the bleeding point. The second target +6.6% barely reaches the expected line at the mid-term channel’s upper band. This small profit margin is a gain for laymen, but for surgeons it’s a barely successful operation.
What really alarms me is not the RSI 33.4, but the 6.6% upper space and the -16.0% downside risk ratio. This is an operation with compressed profit space but extended risk exposure — like performing triple bypass surgery on a seventy-year-old patient with an ejection fraction under 30%. Technically feasible, but extremely costly.
There is no second opinion on the operating table. Only the monitor’s numbers and your hand at the lowest blood pressure moment.To be honest, I myself think it's quite lucky this trade has lasted until now. Luck played a big part. Last night at dawn, I was watching MERL, and since the support didn't break, I said don't rush to cut the $MERL long position; there are buyers below.
It ground up from 0.03048 all the way to 0.03145, with a floating profit of +62.99%, giving the answer. The earlier part was really dragging, but the outcome is really sweet; those on board should be waking up smiling.
The market waits to be timed, and profits come from holding.
Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair over pullbacks.
Take profit on 70% first, move the stop loss for the remaining 30% near the cost price, and if it continues to rise, let the profits run; if it’s time to take profits, then take them. For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Wait for a more comfortable position in the next round; I will notify you immediately.
$ADA $SNDK 🚨 ETH is sitting right in the danger zone.
ETH is around $2,694. The key levels to watch:
🔻 $2,559 — long liquidations could accelerate
🔺 $2,801 — short liquidations could start piling up
Right now, the upside liquidation zone is closer, so a strong move higher could squeeze shorts first.
Next levels: $2,478 / $2,323 below and $2,815 / $2,983 above.
These are liquidation zones, not price predictions. Watch leverage, open interest, and BTC ETF flows before chasing
#DailyOrbit The crypto space has seemed calm these past couple of days, but meme coins like DOGE are quietly gathering strength. It’s stuck at 0.0927 without moving, but the story of DogeOS testnet is spreading in the groups, and a bunch of people are starting to shout about the ecosystem taking off. Damn, I’ve seen this script many times—the main players first lay out the story, the community sentiment heats up, retail investors rush in, then a big bullish candle tricks everyone, followed by a dump to harvest profits. DOGE has no real revenue support; it’s purely an emotional chip, and every positive news is just a window to sell. My warning is straightforward: don’t rush in when the story is hottest. If you really want to play, wait for it to break out with volume above 0.1 and hold that level—then you can tell the real from the fake. In this kind of grinding market, the main players love to wear you down until you lose patience, then suddenly pull a move. Discipline is more important than technique. $DOGE #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Wow, APT put on a show for me again today. 0.7998, up 1.4%, looks like it's in the green, right? But when I opened it, its movement was like an ECG, jumping up and down. I got greedy and tried to catch some, but within a minute it stabbed me with a spike that triggered my stop loss, damn, that was brutal. This token has average liquidity, and on weekends the order book is very thin, so a big player can easily wash you out with a single trade. In Sichuan-Chongqing dialect, it's called "shen cuo cuo" (super tricky). You think it's building a bottom, but it's actually digging a pit for you. My approach: for APT, just wait until it really holds above 0.82 before doing anything. Right now, hovering around the 0.8 mark, don't even touch it. If you get stopped out, just consider it tuition paid, no big deal, don't panic and start throwing in random buys. $APT #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 I thought that after sending off ZEC, the account could be lightened, but today I saw that NEAR quietly took over the "bleeding bag" baton again. This market always specializes in dealing with all kinds of disobedience.
$BTC (the backbone, stabilizing the overall situation)
Average holding price 84044, latest price 84827.
Unrealized profit 464.43U, return rate 18.45%.
BTC is still the most reliable big brother. The defense line has been firmly pushed to 77826. As long as it doesn't break, all fluctuations are just shakeouts. With this big piece of meat from BTC, the overall account is still safe.
$SOL (MVP of the field, isolated margin miracle)
Average holding price 117.41, latest price 120.62.
Unrealized profit 116.67U, return rate 53.06%. Margin rate 13.44%.
This position must be praised repeatedly! Entering with isolated margin not only secured 53% profit, but more importantly, it completely isolated the risk of other positions.
$NEAR (the new drag)
Average holding price 4.909, latest price 4.8064.
Unrealized loss 95.86U, return rate -43.69%.
This is a very typical negative example. It was profitable before, now it's deep underwater. Why is it losing so much? Because it is a cross margin position. It is indiscriminately devouring the profits earned from BTC and SOL.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 🔥 Opened my account and saw +400U sitting there… not a bad surprise!
ETH short is now up 303U 💰
BTC short is up another 96U
And $BEAT is basically flat.
All three trades are currently green — today’s short positions definitely delivered.
📉 $ETH: Entry 1926.4 → Now 1885.85
20X short, floating profit +303U, ROI 44%
If ETH breaks below 1900, I’ll keep watching the 1800 area.
#DailyOrbit Crypto Market Overview | Funds Are Moving, So Why Aren't Prices?
Today's market can be summed up in one word: stagnant.
Funds haven't clearly withdrawn, on-chain data isn't bad, yet prices remain directionless. The real warning isn't the sideways movement itself, but this divergence where "fundamentals are improving, but prices are being suppressed." Once this balance breaks, volatility could suddenly spike.
$SOL: $120 Becomes the Short-Term Bull-Bear Divide
$SOL today basically oscillated narrowly around $119–$120, with the $120 level repeatedly pressured and no significant volume increase.
But fundamentally, Solana isn't weak. Recently, spot Solana ETF funds have continued to attract attention, and on-chain transaction activity remains high. In other words, funds and network usage data are improving, but prices haven't broken through accordingly.
Key short-term levels to watch:
Around 119.9: critical pivot for bulls and bears
Around 116: important support below
122–125: resistance zone above
If $120 can hold with volume, the short-term structure may strengthen significantly; if it fails to break through for a while, watch out for profit-taking.
$XRP: The Longer the Sideways, the More Worth Watching the Breakout
$XRP is grinding repeatedly near $1.49, with shrinking volatility, clearly entering a compression phase.
Recently, institutional interest in XRP-related products continues to rise, but fund flows haven't fully cooperated, with spot XRP ETFs still seeing net outflows. The load-bearing structure of this building is already signaling an alarm—$KSM current price $3.14, daily climbed 3.02%, but this is not reinforcement, it's an illegal top-floor extension.
I've done structural inspections for twenty years, and the most worrisome form is this: within the short-term Bollinger Bands, the price has already reached 92% of the range, with only 0.1% clearance to the upper band, and a 1.5% gap below. What does this mean? The column has already hit the ceiling; above it, there is no reinforced concrete, only air. The mid-term Bollinger Bands are also unhealthy, at 78% position, with only 1.0% margin at the upper edge but 3.6% settlement space at the lower edge—this is a typical center of gravity shift, the building is leaning to one side.
Looking at the reinforcement: RSI short-term cycle is 65.7, not yet at the 70 overload red line, but already in the fatigue zone; long-term cycle is 44.5, neutral to weak. Strong short-term tension and weak long-term load-bearing—this stress combination is called "locally over-rigid, overall under-stable" in engineering. Once wind load comes, the first cracks will appear on the short side.
So my judgment is straightforward: this is not a place to add positions and enter, but to dismantle formwork and exit. A rebound to around $3.25—that is, about 3.8% above the current price—is the best short-selling window because it coincides with the anchor point of the upper resistance band.
📉 Short:
Entry: $3.25 (current price +3.8%)
Take Profit 1: $2.98 (-5.0%)
Take Profit 2: $3.03 (-3.4%)
Stop Loss: $3.57 (+13.9%)
Note this stop loss height: +13.9%, which looks wide but actually leaves enough seismic joint space. If the price really breaks through $3.57, it means my stress analysis is wrong, and the whole building needs to be re-planned. At that time, take the loss and exit, leaving no rusty rebar inside.
From the project foundation perspective, $KSM's blueprint has always been there, but a blueprint does not equal load-bearing capacity. Scalability, actual developer entry speed, real throughput of parallel chains—these are the load-bearing walls, not just renderings. Currently, its short-term price has been pushed to 92% of the Bollinger Band, which is like adding too thick a decoration layer without reinforcing the base. Decorations can be demolished and redone, but insufficient reinforcement can be fatal.
On the construction site, I only trust one thing: the structure speaks. Now the structure says—top clearance 0.1%, bottom settlement starting at 1.5%. This is a building with the top sealed off but the bottom still searching for a bearing layer.$ONE short-term reversal, why hasn't the 4-hour given up yet
$ONE +14.17% in 24 hours, current price 0.002474. On the surface, it's just a fluctuation, but the real conflict lies in the timeframes: 1-hour is bearish, 4-hour is bullish. When two charts give opposite answers, the least useful approach is to pick the one you like and believe it completely.
Put emotions aside first; the structure provides very specific information. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 0.00251427, currently bearish; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 0.00238777, currently bullish. The short timeframe exposes changes, the longer timeframe limits imagination. When both agree, watch out for crowding; when they conflict, watch out for reversals. You can't just pick the side that favors you.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 11.44% away from the 1-hour support at 0.002191, and about 19.00% away from resistance at 0.002944. Putting these two distances together lets you see which side needs more evidence. Looking only at price changes, it's easy to mistake the space already traveled as if it hasn't started yet. $ZAMA is retesting the major resistance zone at $0.090 after a strong rally from $0.0739. Expecting short-term profit-taking at this level.
📊 Short Setup
– Entry: $0.0898 – $0.0905
– Stop Loss: $0.0920
– Targets: $0.0874 | $0.0860
⚠️️ This is a counter-trend scalp setup on lower timeframes. Keep position size small and stick to tight risk management.Keep a close watch on SOL in real time. Current price is 120.5. Just now it moved from 119.8 up to 120.8, but the volume is still sparse. Weekend trading is like this; a small bullish candle already has people calling a reversal, but I don't believe it. The 115-120 support zone hasn't broken yet, but the trapped positions between 122-125 are like a wall. At this point, neither bulls nor bears are making a move; they're just waiting. My approach: hold what you have; no worries if it doesn't break 115; if you want to enter, don't rush—wait for either a volume breakout above 125 or a pullback to 115 without breaking it before acting. This middle consolidation phase is the most frustrating and the easiest to lose money on due to frequent trading. The SOL ecosystem is solid, but timing is more important than direction. Keep a close eye on the numbers 115 and 125; breaking either will indicate the chosen direction. $SOL #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #SOL延续涨势，资金与链上需求共振 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 🔥 Whales are buying BTC. ETH stakers are heading for the exit.
In just 10 days, large BTC wallets added 41K+ BTC, while institutions kept accumulating around $85K.
At the same time, Ethereum’s validator exit queue has exploded, with 800K+ ETH waiting to unstake.
Big money is positioning. ETH stakers are reducing exposure.
That divergence is worth watching closely.
BTC: $83K–$84K support, $87K–$88K resistance.
ETH: $2,600 is key support; below $2,550 could bring more pressure.
#DailyOrbit BTC ETF inflows returning after a brief break, while ETH funds continue to see redemptions, point to selective institutional positioning rather than a broad risk-on rotation. The divergence matters because correlated assets can still compete for marginal allocation when conviction narrows.
NFA — do your own work.
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge The direction of $SAND looks smooth, but the trading volume is casting doubt on this trend.
I first look at the position, not guessing the direction. The current price is 0.07768, about 8.86% away from the 1-hour support at 0.0708, and about 3.72% away from the resistance at 0.08057. Here, what’s lacking is not direction speculation, but the sustainability after the price truly breaks through the boundary.
The current 1-hour trading volume is only 0.40 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars; both the 1-hour and 4-hour volumes are relatively strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candlestick to confirm.
There are only two conditions that would make me change my judgment. My observation line is very clear: only by standing back above and holding 0.08057 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it falls below 0.0708, then attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.04238. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.08396 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
To continuously track this segment, just remember 0.08057 and 0.0708. I will come back in the next round to check if my judgment has been overturned by the market.
When direction consistency and insufficient volume conflict, which do you trust more?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.This weekend, $BTC was the only price setter in the market
With oil, bonds, and US stocks all closed, BTC traded sideways narrowly around 84,700 USD (within ±0.3%). On Friday, the nonfarm payrolls report was a surprise (only 29,000 new jobs), and BTC surged to 87,200 before falling back — now this price is not pricing the nonfarm data, but pricing the weekend.
On Friday, two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz were hit by "unidentified projectiles," confirmed by UKMTO. These geopolitical news mean oil and bond markets can only price on Monday, leaving BTC forced to digest it now.
So don’t mistake the sideways trading for calm: this is the only real-time proxy pricing for the Middle East in the entire market. Staying within ±1% means pricing in "no worsening of the situation"; if something major happens over the weekend, BTC, with the thinnest liquidity, will fall first.
The direction of Brent crude’s gap open on Monday will be the referee to test this pricing.Hyperliquid has just received its first USDC reserve share of approximately $14.58 million.
Hyperdash co-founder Hans (quoted by ChainCatcher): The AQAv2 treasury wallet completed the first payment, covering about 30 days of USDC reserves from August 26 to September 24. Approximately $14.58 million will enter the aid fund to buy HYPE; the implied average fee rate is about 3.14%, which annualizes to about $193 million at the current scale. Previous income mainly came from trading fees; this is new income generated from margin deposits themselves. Receipt ≠ all repurchased yet, and the annualized figure fluctuates with scale and fee rate. At the time of writing, OKX HYPE is about 89.71. Not investment advice. ① The real competition for stablecoins may not be about "who issues them."
It's about: who controls the users, who controls the distribution channels.
Circle has licenses and USDC, but still needs to pay large shares to channels like Coinbase.
This indicates one thing: issuance capability ≠ bargaining power.
② Many people think of stablecoins as a "passive interest-earning" business.
But IOSG's view is crucial:
Issuance is just production; distribution is sales.
Whether you can get stablecoins into users' hands and keep balances on your platform long-term determines how much value you can capture.
③ This is actually the classic logic of internet business:
The product itself may not be the most profitable; the entry point might be the most profitable.
Stablecoins themselves are increasingly like infrastructure; the truly scarce assets are user entry points and balance retention.
Exchanges, wallets, and payment networks may have more bargaining power than pure issuers.
④ Therefore, after the stablecoin market cap returns to $270 billion, what really matters is not just "who issued how much."
But:
Who owns the users?
Who controls the payment scenarios?
Who can keep funds continuously within their own ecosystem?
Market cap is just scale; channels are the moat.
⑤ If this logic holds, the ultimate winner in the stablecoin space may not be the earliest issuer.
It could be the one best at distribution.
When looking at stablecoins, consider a different question:
Don't just ask "who is issuing the coins"
But also ask "who controls the entry points" 🚨 Last night, every analyst suddenly became a bull… and the market said: “Watch this.” 😂
The bullish calls were absolutely deafening.
“Go long!”
“Keep chasing!”
“Bulls are taking over!”
So I went long on $ETH at 2750, with a 30-point stop loss.
Well… that stop loss turned out to be thinner than paper. 💀
The bulls got absolutely wrecked, with around $300M blown out.
Then came $BTC.
#DailyOrbit BITCOIN REJECTED 87,238.3 AND WENT QUIET.
On the 4h, that long upper wick was followed by tight candles around 84,841.9. The 24h range is just 84,549.8–85,027.8.
I respect compression after rejection. It shows hesitation, not direction.
Does this tight range resolve toward 87,238.3 or 82,556.6 first?
$BTC
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge My $BTC 10x long position is floating at a loss of 19.12%, and the price is stuck again at the $85,000 threshold.
The average entry price is $86,460, and the position hasn't changed. BTC is currently quoted at $84,830, similar to last time, with no significant change in loss. This sideways consolidation is still testing patience.
According to the current market conditions, the 1-hour EMA20 is about $84,779, and the RSI is around 49. The price barely returned above the moving average, but the highest complete hourly candle recently only reached $84,864, still some distance from the intraday high of $85,028. If it can close above $85,030, I will then look at $85,650-$86,000.
Perpetual positions have decreased by about 0.8% compared to roughly 23 hours ago. The price has slightly risen, but positions continue to decline, so the rebound mainly relies on old positions exiting. The funding rate is slightly positive, with longs paying a low fee; if price and positions both increase later, the rebound will be considered supported by continued buying.
Among OKX smart money, 20 people are long and 13 are short, with more people on the long side, but shorts hold 62.0% of the amount. Total positions have decreased by about $3.61 million compared to 24 hours ago. More people but less money on one side means this long advantage is only a sentiment factor for now.
This week, the US spot BTC ETF net inflow is $82.9 million, indicating spot still has support; selling pressure from high-level buyers hasn't disappeared, so the upside won't be easy.
I’m watching $85,030 and $85,650 first. If the 1-hour drops back below $84,500, the recovery will have to start over; if it breaks $83,900 again, this chicken leg meal will still have to be owed.Here's a basic introduction to cryptocurrency knowledge for everyone:
1)
If you want to avoid getting cut too badly in the crypto world and stop dreaming of getting rich overnight,
just focus on the top few by market cap:
btc, eth, sol, okb, and the like.
Don't chase after "miracle coins" or "meme coins" every day; they tend to go to zero easily.
2)
After choosing these big coins like BTC, ETH, and SOL,
don't operate recklessly next,
first look at the long-term cycle.
For example, this market cycle might last 2 to 3 years.
Just hold and don't move,
you might not make explosive gains,
but you can probably earn about 3 to 5 times,
which is already better than most people.
3)
If you think 3 to 5 times isn't exciting enough
and want to earn more,
then either follow a reliable, experienced influencer,
or learn some basic K-line charts, support, resistance, and such yourself.
Do "medium-term swing trading" within the big cycle:
sell a bit when it rises a lot, buy back when it falls a lot.
Originally, holding tight can earn 3 to 5 times,
but with this kind of trading,
you might achieve 5 to 10 times.
4)
After confirming the big trend is a bull market/uptrend,
you can use a small amount of money
to bet on sector leaders or coins with stories.
Note, it's a small position,
not putting your house on the line.
These coins are for chasing "ten-bagger coins,"
but they might not rise or even go to zero,
so treat it like buying a lottery ticket.
5)
Finally, the most important:
don't give back all your profits.
When the big cycle is about to end,
lock in your profits.
No matter how crazy the coin price gets, don't be greedy,
cashing out is real money 💰.
In a nutshell:
Big coins for survival, swing trading for extra income, small positions for big gains, and protect profits at the end of the cycle. The SEC has paused new crypto ETF reviews; don't interpret this as negative news. It's more like a "delay" rather than a "rejection."
On October 3, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission suspended new crypto ETF reviews due to a federal government funding lapse. Registration statements are temporarily ineffective, and related comment letters are also on hold. Existing ETFs like BTC and ETH are unaffected and continue to trade normally.
What really deserves attention is that over 90 crypto ETF applications were pending at the beginning of October, with some regulatory deadlines approaching soon. This pause may push back the anticipated "intensive ETF launches".
However, I believe there's no need to overinterpret this in the short term.
Because a review pause ≠ application rejection; the core issue is just a forced delay in the regulatory process. Once funding resumes, the backlog of applications may re-enter review.
The market transmission path is simple:
Government funding lapse → SEC review pause → ETF launch expectations delayed → short-term capital sentiment cools → BTC and related altcoins come under pressure.
But another path should also be considered:
Review delay → does not change the ETF applications themselves → demand for funds remains → after regulatory resumption, concentrated launch expectations may appear.
So for short-term trading, I would not short BTC directly based on this news.
What deserves closer monitoring is ETF capital flows and BTC price structure. If spot ETFs continue to see net inflows, it indicates institutional demand hasn't disappeared due to the review pause; if ETF funds simultaneously turn negative, combined with BTC breaking key support, then it would be necessary to... $ETH: Buy on pullback
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to pull back to the 2680-2686 range (near the Bollinger middle band) and stabilize before entering long.
· The initial target is 2695; if effectively broken, look at resistance levels at 2723 and even the previous high at 2777. Set stop loss below 2660.
Core basis:
1. Positioning squeeze expectation: Whale long-short ratio reaches 228%, longs have 65% unrealized profits, shorts with an average cost of 2636 are deeply in loss. Once the price rises, it easily triggers short covering and a squeeze push.
2. Technical volume contraction and consolidation: 1-hour Bollinger Bands are extremely tight, price stands firm above the middle band at 2686. Strong support at previous lows 2667 and 2646 below, typical healthy sideways consolidation before a breakout.
3. Resistance and risk-reward ratio: Clear selling pressure at 2695 and 2723 above, net selling slightly exceeds net buying in the last 30 minutes, making a direct breakout less likely. Buying on pullback to middle band support with clear stop loss, better risk-reward ratio.
$BTC $SOL
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Woke up and still see this crazy coin hovering around 1300. After swinging in dozens of directions in a day, it finally settled here. Looks like the dog whales are doing quantitative trading to accumulate during the sideways movement. My short position opened at 800 probably won't break even until who knows when. I've been stuck for over a month and haven't dared to make any moves. Sideways trading is just torture; those who aren't firm have already cut losses and left. But I insist on being the one who neither breaks even nor runs away.I came across a post where a big player named A10 lost 40 million back from September 23rd to today.
I stared at that number for ten seconds. What does 40 million mean to us? It's a house you wouldn't dare to dream of in your lifetime, but for him, it's just a slight shake on leverage.
The post included a $UNI chart, and I guess that part of his position isn't doing well either—down nearly ten points in seven days, hovering around nine dollars, with trading volume halved—it's that kind of dead water where no one is buying or daring to sell.
You can't envy these people, nor should you feel sorry for them. Leveraged games are inherently volatile; you win some, you lose some.
But when I saw someone in the comments asking "How to copy the big player," I really wanted to wake them up. A 1% fluctuation in their position might be your entire monthly salary. In situations like this, just watch, like, and swipe away. Don't get emotionally involved. $UNI At the 84,822 USD level, it's actually more worth watching than the price fluctuations themselves. Have you noticed that BTC is now just a breath away from its previous high, yet the sentiment feels as cold as late night? Last night while watching the market, I was a bit surprised. After the price rebounded from 74,955 to 87,399, it didn't quickly fall back but steadily stayed above MA5 84,518, MA10 84,276, and MA20 82,800. Today it only rose 0.07%, 0.40% over seven days, 6.47% over thirty days, with a volume of 2.56K BTC. The numbers are quiet, but the structure is not. - Moving averages are in a bullish alignment, short-term buyers are still controlling the market - Supports at 84,518 and 84,276 act as two soft cushions - Above, 85,027 is the first gate, 87,399 is the real threshold - Only by breaking above 87,399 is there a chance to reach 88,500 What I really care about is not these price points, but the temperature of market sentiment. A 6.47% rise over thirty days, but almost no movement intraday, what does that indicate? It means fewer people are chasing highs, and more are willing to wait for a pullback. This is not a bad thing; it feels like restraint. People no longer rush in just because of a bullish candle, nor panic exit due to sideways movement. But here is a detail easily overlooked: the volume is only 2.56K BTC. This volume can support the moving averages, but pushing directly past 87,399 is a bit tough. If sentiment continues to be cold, the price is very likely to stay around 84,5 Sister Bao's move has leaked out this time, BTC and ETH suddenly reversed at high levels, and many people simply didn't keep up.
Just a couple of days ago, they were heavily long, but after two days of continuous position adjustments, this wasn't a spur-of-the-moment decision, but a typical high-level "taking profits + switching".
On October 2nd, first got in:
$BTC two long orders, totaling over 12.9 million U, 50X leverage, entry prices 86568.3 and 86369.4;
$ETH two long orders, entry prices 2739.47 and 2707.64, 30X leverage betting on a breakout.
In the early morning of October 3rd, closed out the ETH longs at 2664.39, fully exiting, pocketing nearly 3 million U directly.
By evening, the strategy completely changed:
Opened short $ETH at 2677.82, 30X leverage, redeploying nearly 1.91 million U.
From fully long to directly short, the switch was indeed very fast.
With the non-farm payroll data surprising to the downside and rising expectations of rate cuts, what really changed wasn't the sentiment, but the trading logic. 15 days left until CME launches $BCH futures.
On the announcement day, BCH surged over 25% to $338; now at 317.9, about 6% lower than then. It was hit down to 296.3 in the early morning, then climbed back up steadily.
The money bought in advance on expectations has already gone through a round; next, it depends on whether there will be real institutional transactions to take over after the launch on the 19th. The launch itself is still awaiting regulatory review.Let's talk about the real holding status. LTC has been quite stable this week, at 70.27, with a +2.52% increase over the weekend, making it relatively resilient among the major coins. It doesn't have any flashy narratives; it's an established digital silver payment coin, with volatility a bit higher than BTC but more stable than altcoins. My approach is to treat it as the ballast in my portfolio, not expecting to get rich quick, but aiming for it to fall less during market crashes and to follow rebounds. Currently at the 70 level, with 75 above as the resistance from the start of the year and 65 below as strong support, it's in a range-bound pattern. No leverage, no all-in, just holding and waiting for the second half of the halving cycle story. The other end of the barbell strategy is high beta; LTC quietly stays in the middle. The more restless the market, the more value this old coin shows. $LTC #贝莱德推两只基金，专供稳定币储备 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 Leading private credit players are being squeezed by their own clients.
Blue Owl disclosed on Friday: In Q3, two funds received redemption requests totaling $4.2 billion, with the flagship OCIC redemption rate at 16.8%, but only repurchasing 5% as usual, with the rest queued again.
The inconsistency is: redemptions declined consecutively from $5.4 billion in Q1, $4.7 billion in Q2, to $4.2 billion in Q3, yet Blue Owl's stock price has dropped 45% over the past year.
The market is pricing not the redemptions, but the borrowers: the largest client base for private credit is software companies, and AI is shaking their cash flow expectations. Investors fear not fund losses, but that the loans won't be repaid.
A decline in redemptions does not mean the alarm is off: the real judge is the credit of the software industry. The erosion of software profits by AI has not been fully re-evaluated, so the discount is justified.Americans say they spend more on AI than on sports betting, but credit card data tells a different story.
In surveys, Americans claim their spending on AI products exceeds that on sports betting.
But real credit card data shows:
Sports betting accounts for about 5%;
AI products about 2%.
Why this discrepancy?
Because "I spend money on AI" sounds more respectable.
It represents efficiency, learning, productivity, and embracing new technology.
Whereas "I spend money on sports betting" doesn't sound as good.
So surveys easily capture a person's self-perception, but credit card statements record their actual behavior.
This is actually a very practical market judgment principle:
Don't just listen to what people say; look at where their money goes.
The same applies in Crypto.
When a project says "we will buy back," check if there are real buybacks on-chain.
When someone says "whales are bottom-fishing," see if whale addresses are actually buying or selling.
A person can tell you they are very bullish on an asset.
But the truly meaningful question is:
How much money are they willing to put behind their view?
Words can be packaged.
Narratives can be created.
But capital flows are often more honest.
So when judging trends, rather than studying "what everyone is saying," it's better to first see:
Where is everyone's money actually flowing? BTC spot ETF returns to inflows, ETH funds continue to outflow
On the latest trading day in the US Eastern time zone, BTC spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $102.7 million, with BlackRock IBIT as the main contributor; ETH spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $55.4 million, with redemptions in FETH and ETHE, showing a clear rotation of funds from ETH to BTC. On a monthly basis for September, total BTC ETF inflows reached $2.65 billion, while ETH only $832 million, There is a common signal worth analyzing in this round: NEAR, Solana, and Base, which are in the intent layer and execution layer tracks, are all going through cycles of incidents, repairs, and narrative recovery. NEAR Intents was hacked for 3.8 million, but the full amount was recovered, showing the community's strong coordination ability; Solana's treasury is still increasing its holdings, with DFDV holding 2.53 million SOL; Base's Aave is launching Monad V4 for tokenized stocks. The common signal is that the credibility of the infrastructure layer is becoming a premium—whoever can quickly contain black swan events can retain funds. But there is also a contradiction: these ecosystems rely on narratives when rising and on faith when falling. NEAR rebounded +3.33% today, but the large bearish candle caused by the hack has not yet been fully repaired. Catalyst list: NEAR security review, Solana treasury movements, Base ecosystem TVL. $NEAR #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回 [Old Leek Observation]
$BNB is now at a relatively critical position again. The price has climbed back above $780, reaching a high of $791.
The market is already trading ahead on one thing: the 37th BNB quarterly burn is coming soon.
The last burn in July, the 36th, burned about 1.62 million BNB at once, which was nearly $932 million based on the price at that time. There is no official figure yet on how much will be burned this time.
But one thing is clear:
The total supply of BNB continues to decline. The problem is, burning itself does not immediately mean a price increase.
The real resistance now is around $800.
If funds can push BNB directly past $800, the market will likely start trading the next range.
But if it repeatedly fails to break through, the so-called "burn expectation" can easily turn into a realized positive.
Entry: $770–$785
Take profit: $800 / $825 / $850 / $880 / $920
Stop loss: $752
Everyone knows the positive news, but the price has not truly broken through yet. Jobs Data Fallout
NFP: 29K vs 90K expected. Fed hike odds collapsed to 25% for October.
But the 10-year yield stayed near 5.28% — that's the wall.
Weak jobs = less Fed pressure. High yields = no clean breakout yet.
#FedECBMeetingMinutes The CPI night once again proves that the market does not reward consensus, only punishes impulsiveness.
This time, the CPI year-on-year is 2.6%, below the expected 2.8%; core CPI is 2.9%, also below the expected 3.0%. The bet on rate cuts quickly heats up. Looking at the numbers alone, risk assets seem ready to pop champagne. But the market first gives some sweetness then strikes, the rally turns into a selling window, and chasing funds are wiped ouNarrative Rotation: DeFi + AI
Altcoin Season Index at 64 (up from 48 last week). Still below 75 threshold.
30-day movers: $UNI +110%, $ARB +150%, $NEAR +180%, $PONS +350%.
Capital is concentrating, not spreading. $BNB Damn it! This market is absolutely crazy, BTC is sideways, but BNB is getting restless first. Yesterday it dropped to 770, clearly a shakeout by the dog whales to flush out all the floating chips. Now above 785, volume is slowly picking up, the main players' money moves can't be hidden.
At 786.2, I’m entering the first position, stop loss set below 775. Don’t ask, discipline is discipline. Don’t expect to get rich overnight, scaling in batches is how seasoned traders operate.
If you want to follow, don’t chase the highs, wait for a pullback to buy. The market depth card is below, click in to check the depth before making a move.
👇👇👇#贝森特：US Treasury yields rising aligns with global trends
Besent: The rise in US Treasury yields aligns with global trends, no need to panic
On October 3rd, US Treasury Secretary Besent clearly stated in an Axios interview that the recent rise in US Treasury yields is a global phenomenon, not unique to the US. "If we saw a rise unique to the US, I would be concerned. But we have not seen people selling US Treasuries to switch to German or Japanese bonds."
The background is not easy. This week, the 10-year US Treasury yield once hit 5.34%, the highest since 2002; the 30-year broke through 5.65%, also a 24-year high. The Iran war has pushed up energy costs, AI infrastructure has brought massive financing demand, and the fiscal deficit continues to widen—these three pressures together have driven up borrowing costs.
Besent's subtext is: this is not a US Treasury credit crisis, but a global upward shift in interest rate levels. He also dismissed the AI bubble theory, stating that capital expenditures by Microsoft, Google, and Meta are supported by real revenue.
For BTC, high long-term interest rates remain a valuation ceiling. BTC is currently around 84,800, with resistance at 87,000 and support at 84,000. Positions should set stop-loss below 83,500; empty positions should wait for a pullback to 84,000-84,500 to stabilize before entering, do not chase highs.
What do you think of Besent's statement? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC: Buy on the dip
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to dip and stabilize in the 84,600-84,700 range (Bollinger lower band and short-term support zone) before entering a long position.
· The initial target is 85,000 (24-hour high); if this level is effectively broken, the next resistance is at 86,144. Set stop loss below 84,300.
Core basis:
1. Bollinger Bands extremely tight: On the 1-hour chart, Bollinger Bands have severely contracted, and the price is above the middle band (84,778), a typical sign before a breakout. The lower band at 84,607 and chart support at 84,348 form a double support, indicating a short-term structure biased toward an upward breakout.
2. Whale position dominance: The nominal long-short ratio is as high as 436%. Whale long average cost is only 82,179, with substantial unrealized profits; short average cost is 81,795, deeply in loss. This easily triggers short squeeze liquidations, pushing the price upward.
3. Capital flow support: In the last 30 minutes, net buying (1.63M) exceeds net selling (1.33M), showing active accumulation by bulls at low levels. There is selling pressure at 85,000 and 86,144, making a direct breakout less likely. Buying on dips at support offers a better risk-reward ratio.
$ETH $SOL
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Saylor said the 30-day historical volatility of $STRC has dropped to 9%, even lower than $SPY.
What’s truly worth paying attention to here is not just the "9%" figure.
It’s about addressing a long-standing contradiction in the BTC market:
Wanting Bitcoin’s upside potential, but unable to tolerate its volatility.
For many institutions and yield-focused funds, this is precisely the biggest barrier to allocating BTC.
What Saylor aims to do, essentially, is to use financial engineering to separate two things:
Retain the underlying exposure to BTC’s upside;
While simultaneously reducing price volatility through structural design.
If this model holds in the long term, it solves more than just "how to invest in BTC."
It provides a new entry point for funds that originally could not accept BTC’s volatility.
But it’s crucial to stay clear-headed here:
Low volatility is never free.
In financial markets, volatility doesn’t just disappear.
It is more often redistributed.
So the real question worth studying is not:
"Why is $STRC so stable?"
But rather:
"To whom has it transferred the risk?"
In stable markets, structured products may look very attractive.
The real stress test comes in extreme market conditions.
So when evaluating these products, you can’t just look at returns and historical volatility.
Financial engineering can change the shape of risk, but it does not eliminate risk.The Strait of Hormuz is not completely blocked, but crude oil is being rerouted in more expensive and complex ways, which is actually more worth paying attention to for BTC than a simple "strait closure."
On October 4th, the Iraqi state-owned tanker company confirmed that it had transported 2 million barrels of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz via a large tanker and then handed it over to buyers waiting outside the strait. This is the first time in decades that the company has used this method.
Simply put, previously buyers picked up goods directly at the southern Iraqi oil port; now Iraq first transports crude oil through the high-risk area, then delivers it via ship-to-ship transfer.
Moreover, Iraq is not the only one doing this. Gulf oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE have recently been extensively using ship-to-ship transfers, causing congestion in the Oman Bay related transfer capacity, with VLCC freight rates rising to as high as $1.27 million per day.
More importantly, Iraq is willing to offer discounts of more than $20 per barrel to attract buyers to "pick up goods in person." Previously, when Indian refineries purchased Iraqi Basrah Medium, the discount even reached $32 per barrel.
So now the real market transaction is not about "whether there is crude oil," but "whether crude oil can be delivered to buyers stably and at low cost."
My judgment is that the short-term transmission path remains:
Hormuz risk → rising transportation costs → oil prices remain high → inflation expectations rise → US Treasury yields rise → pressure on rate cut expectations → increased volatility in risk assets → pressure on BTC.
But on the other hand, it should also be noted that Gulf oil-producing countries are actively seeking alternative transportation solutions, and currently Middle East crude oil exports have clearly recovered.