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NVIDIA's stock price hits a new all-time high, with market value approaching $6 trillion, risk appetite spills over but does not benefit crypto, BTC currently at 84827.6. I judge that funds are being withdrawn from the US stock market, with a short-term bias toward consolidation.
A slight 0.6% drop in 24 hours, high at 85477.5, low at 83826.4, trading volume only 4.353 million. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are upward, but a pullback of more than 2% from the high indicates real selling pressure above; the top 10 order book buy/sell ratio is 3.73, buyers dominate, funding rate at 0.0034% is neutral, and open interest at 29,000 shows longs are not overly crowded.
Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback to 83910, stop loss at 83240, target 85680; if it rises to around 85735 and faces resistance, short for a quick trade, stop loss at 86420, target 84280. Single position size should not exceed 5%, market moves quickly, always use stop loss.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$BTC#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 $BTC Nvidia's market value is approaching 6 trillion, and the computing power narrative is spilling over to AI sector tokens, with WLD as the leader directly benefiting. I lean slightly bullish in the short term but caution against chasing highs. On the capital side, the current price is 0.5974, up 3.9% in 24h, with a turnover of 476 million. Bullish sentiment remains, but the top ten order book buy-sell ratio is 0.71, indicating significantly heavier selling pressure. The funding rate is only 0.01%, with open interest at 76.834 million, showing that leveraged longs are not overheated, while shorts are tentatively adding positions. The four-hour chart is strong, only -0.96% from the high; the one-hour chart is 23.58% above the low, indicating a shallow pullback. Resistance above is at 0.6188, and key support below is at 0.5264. Strategy-wise, lightly buy on a pullback to 0.5825, stop loss at 0.5645, target 0.6285; if volume breaks through 0.6188, chase longs to 0.6475, stop loss at 0.6015. Keep position size within 5%, exit on break without holding losing positions.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading.——
$WLD#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 $WLD First slaughter the shorts, then grind the longs.
Fortunately, it didn't open every day with a big bearish candle, directly causing people to collapse.
Looking at it this way, $ZEC is quite considerate to the bulls. When it rises, it lets you enjoy it fully; when it falls, it takes its time, giving you plenty of time to escape. $ZEC $BTC $ETH Thought a spike in funding rates meant the market was about to explode? I almost believed that yesterday. But $SAND taught me a lesson. It went through a full squeeze yesterday, dragging on for most of the day, with funding rates pushed absurdly high to the point of settling every four hours. At that moment, I was watching the market, finger hovering over the open position button, but I didn’t press it. Not because I wasn’t tempted, but because I knew that if I chased in, I’d most likely just be carrying others’ gains. Now the funding rate has dropped a bit, but it’s still not comfortable. I choose to keep watching, waiting for an opportunity I recognize, not one I imagine. There’s a big difference between the two. Looking at it from another angle, what’s really worth remembering about this period isn’t how long a coin rallied, but how the funding’s temperament changed during the volatility phase. In a squeeze market, price going up doesn’t mean the buying is strong; often it’s just shorts being forced to cover pushing the price. Once that force runs out, the pullback is usually faster than anyone expects. So now I care more about the rhythm than the direction. $CAP is a typical example. It’s quite capable on its own, but unfortunately suppressed by the overall market sentiment, unable to rally. I tried to get in a bit yesterday and almost couldn’t get out, taking a hit. At times like this, I make a note: it’s not that the asset is bad, but that I entered at the peak of sentiment. If it rallies again later, I’ll consider shorting instead of continuing to fantasize about it strengthening independently. As for $ZEC, I’ve been worn down for a month. It’s not rallying now, and I don’t expect it to suddenly show goodwill. I only care about one thing: when it will break below 1,000 so I can clear this position. This thought SOL suddenly surged today, jumping from around $120 to $123 within an hour, rising about 2.6% in a short time, while approximately $7.7 million worth of SOL short positions were liquidated in the market. Pluang
① This surge is not just about shorts being squeezed
Circle minted about 750 million USDC on Solana in the past 24 hours, with a single transaction of 250 million USDC. Pluang
USDC minting does not mean all that money is immediately used to buy SOL, but it at least indicates that stablecoin liquidity on the Solana chain is continuing to expand.
For a blockchain, this kind of "available capital" is more tangible than just looking at TPS.
② What I want to see now is whether SOL can retain this liquidity
If later DEX trading, perpetual contracts, Meme, and on-chain lending all pick up, then the 750 million USDC won't just be a ledger increase but will turn into real trading demand.
If stablecoins come in but on-chain activity doesn't keep up, then this news won't support SOL's price for very long.
③ If I open a position, I won't chase longs
There was already a surge today, and some shorts were liquidated.
I prefer to wait for a pullback to see if the 120–121 range can hold.
If it holds and on-chain volume continues to grow, I will remain bullish.
If it quickly falls back below 118, then today's move looks more like a short-term short squeeze.
My current view on $SOL is simple:
Short-term focus on price, mid-term focus on whether USDC really turns into trading volume on Solana.
Money entering the chain is just the first step; money staying and being used is what makes the market more sustainable. Liquidity is returning, and narratives are beginning to stratify
Citigroup updated its crypto coordinates, raising the $BTC twelve-month target to $113,000 and ETH to $3,028, significantly up from the previous $82,000 and $2,240. The reasons are straightforward: increased trading activity, eased macro pressure, renewed net inflows into ETFs, and an expected return of about $5 billion in funds within a year.
However, if the funds truly return, it won't necessarily be a universal boom; more likely, the narrative will spread layer by layer. $BTC remains anchored to liquidity and risk appetite, while ETH carries the smart contract ecosystem. At the altcoin level, I am watching DOGE and FIL: DOGE relies on global community consensus, payment potential, and Meme-driven viral growth, showing strong explosive power but is highly sentiment-dependent; FIL bets on decentralized storage, AI data infrastructure, on-chain data, and long-term storage computing power, leaning towards infrastructure.
One is a community asset, the other a data asset. After major capital inflows, the focus is not on "what to buy" but on observing how funds switch between these two narrative types. Target prices are institutional forecasts, not promises; altcoin volatility far exceeds BTC, so position sizing and risk control always come before returns.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 This market is wildly volatile, really frustrating. It's usual for the small non-farm payrolls to open a small door and the big non-farm payrolls to open a big door, but this time the door opened way too exaggeratedly. Last night I stayed up until 2 AM building models with my cat, was upset until 5 AM, scrolled through Red Fruit until 8 AM, and woke up directly after 5 PM. This weekend's lousy market, whether you get up early or late, it's the same. Just waiting to see how things go after 10.4. The 2024 wave retraced from 9.27 to 10.4, let's see if history repeats itself. $BTC $ETH As for the good side, the highs and lows are indeed rising. But the reality is, with liquidity being swept back and forth like this, there's less and less money left in the market. For the market to improve, there needs to be a "dumb money effect," meaning even blind operations can make money, which can attract outside funds. That's how the US stock market was before—mindless buying could make money, and money poured in. Now the crypto market is like raising a poisonous insect; only smart people and veterans can pick the chestnuts from the fire. Newbies coming in are just giving their heads away, with no wealth-building ability and no dumb money effect, so it's inevitably tough to play. The drier the liquidity, the more extreme the market, and making money only gets harder. Essentially, this is a selection process, and in the end, only the poisonous insect kings remain. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 This is also why BTC still declined steadily last night despite the apparent positive "weak non-farm payrolls" data.
The market is no longer satisfied with "possibly fewer rate hikes in the future."
What everyone really wants to see is: when money will actually become cheaper.
As long as the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yields remain high, the valuations of BTC and US stocks will continue to be weighed down.
The most critical issue now is not whether the Fed will hike rates one more time, but when long-term interest rates will truly turn around.It's only early October, and this so-called "National Day red envelope rally" lasted just one day. From 82,800 it surged straight to 87,300. I originally planned to go long at 82,000 and short near 88,000, but neither price point was reached, so I could only watch helplessly.
All the price points were operated half a step ahead; the direction was right, but the numbers were all wrong, with errors ranging from 800 to 1,000 points. You can imagine how frustrating that is.
What’s even more alarming is the structure: as time passes, this nearly three-month-long rally is basically nearing its end. Even the leading assets in the market have started to collapse, which are typical signs of a market top. Historically, every sustained rally ends with a decisive crash.
So what I’m more curious about is: in what form and when will a daily drop of tens of thousands occur? At this stage, I’m not chasing longs; risk management comes first. $BTC$ZEC is currently hovering around $1333.
Reading this, that voice in your head might have started again:
"It dropped from 1698 to 1333, a 21% retracement already, is it time to buy the dip?"
Hold on, answer these 4 questions before deciding.
First, when will ETF funds flow back in?
On September 30, ZCSH saw a net outflow of about $30.25 million, and on October 2, another outflow of about $26.93 million. With continuous fund withdrawals, the short-term buying strength naturally comes into question.
If ETFs keep flowing out, what will the market rely on to absorb the selling pressure above?
Second, will the hacker funds issue continue to ferment?
Currently, about $3.9 million of stolen funds have been transferred through ZEC's privacy pool. The bigger question is whether the remaining funds will continue to enter the privacy pool.
Once these funds keep associating with ZEC's privacy ecosystem, market attention on its compliance narrative may further increase.
Third, what do 1233 and 1410 mean respectively?
Two key levels currently watched by the market:
📉 $1233: Key structural support
If the daily chart breaks below and closes under this level effectively, downward pressure may increase further.
📈 Around $1410: Rebound confirmation zone What I'm more concerned about for next week is whether Micron can take over the baton, and how Google's new model really performs. I can't understand why Google's release of the best model hasn't caused a price increase. After thinking it over, maybe it's because ordinary people can't use it, or perhaps it's controversial $GOOGL $MU $NVDA SAND has surged more than 30% in the past 24 hours, printing a strong bullish candle while trading volume expands sharply. Short-term momentum and market sentiment have shifted quickly.
Looking at the whale positioning:
🐋 Longs: 139 positions, average entry around $0.06565, with 83.45% currently profitable. That means many positions are sitting on significant unrealized gains, which could create some profit-taking pressure.
#DailyOrbit Why do retail investors always lose money?
In short, it's four words: holding the wrong way.
They panic and quickly take profits when a trade is slightly in the green;
But for losing trades, they keep adding more, always thinking they can break even.
This is not high sell low buy at all; it's clearly cutting off the profitable shoots and digging the losing pits even deeper.
The root cause is not in the technique, but in the mindset.
Can you let profits run a little longer? Can you cut losses decisively?
Most people can't get past this, so their accounts keep spinning in place. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC $ETH #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
The G7 says it will release 100 million barrels, but the previous round of 75 million barrels has not yet been delivered to the market.
▪️ The International Energy Agency promised 400 million barrels in March, with about 325 million barrels delivered to the market by October 1, leaving a balance of about 75 million barrels.
▪️ The official wording for this 100 million barrels is "considering the commitments already fulfilled," without distinguishing between new releases and old commitments.
▪️ Delivery progress is uneven: Germany has about 77% yet to release, while Spain has only released about one-third.
▪️ On the day of the announcement, European diesel futures once dropped more than 8%, while Brent crude closed almost unchanged.
The disagreement is not about whether 100 million barrels is enough, but how much of this 100 million barrels is newly released this time.
The statement first says it will supervise the full fulfillment of the March commitments, then announces the release of 100 million barrels — the first part is urging action, the second part may be new measures.
The market reads it this way too: diesel fell the most sharply, not crude oil. The European diesel premium over crude dropped from 76.77 to 69.
Oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz have nearly returned to pre-war levels; the bottleneck is refined products. This time, the G7 even adjusted the maintenance schedules of member countries' refineries, requesting to avoid concentrated shutdowns.
Is this 100 million barrels new inventory, or just a re-announcement of old commitments?Conclusion first: $SAND is up 74% in 24h, but I won't chase this 4H candle at noon today — volume shrank by 46% compared to the morning, falling about 3.7% from the 0.08228 high, short-term correction is not over yet.
Data speaks:
• Today's open (UTC+8) was 0.062, the 4H candle at 08:00 exploded to 72.8 million tokens traded (≈$470M), price moved from 0.068 to 0.08228, 4-8 times the average volume of previous candles. A typical volume surge rally.$BTC $ETH $ZEC are still adjusting,
market sentiment is weakening.
A few altcoins are pulling hard,
short-selling thoughts are starting to appear,
but positions are already held,
not wanting to operate on multiple fronts.
First wait for the positions in hand to take profit,
then consider shorting those altcoins that have surged at the right time.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #NvidiaRecordHigh $PUMP and all launchpads like PONS, as well as Mo Yin Coin compared to the September peak, are all plummeting. The vast majority that were launched have no trading activity. The coin price is likely to go down, Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 84,000, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and wage growth also slowed down.
Logically, this should be positive for risk assets—expectations for rate hikes cooled, and market liquidity expectations improved. But the result was a large liquidation of long positions.
Why?
First, buy the rumor, sell the fact.
Before the data release, the market had already priced in weaker nonfarm payrolls and a decline in October rate hike expectations, with BTC having already risen from around 84,000 to 87,000. When the positive news actually arrived, it became an opportunity for bulls to take profits.
Second, the data was too poor, triggering concerns about a recession.
New job additions were significantly below expectations, previous figures were revised down, and the unemployment rate continued to rise. The market’s focus shifted from just "no rate hike" to worrying whether the economy is clearly cooling. With risk appetite declining, both stocks and crypto assets may come under pressure.
Third, long leverage was too crowded.
The market first spiked up, wiping out some shorts, then quickly reversed downward, triggering long stop losses and forced liquidations, creating a chain reaction of liquidations.
Therefore, even though the nonfarm data was somewhat positive, it doesn’t necessarily mean bulls made money.
What the market is really trading is the difference in expectations, capital flows, and position structure, not simply whether the data is good or bad.
Currently, BTC has returned to around 85,000, with the 87,000 area still an important resistance, and the 84,000 area needing close observation for support.
No rush to bottom-fish in the short term; first watch if liquidation pressure eases and if the price can stabilize in key support zones. Control position size and wait for confirmation signals.
$BTC $ETHHonestly, after $PONS dropped to just above 0.4, I’ve kind of gone numb.
At 0.6, I thought it had fallen too much; at 0.5, I thought it was about right, but it kept crashing further.
But today I suddenly realized, what I’m most worried about now isn’t it dropping another 10%.
It’s that everyone stops playing.
Why was PONS so explosive before?
It’s actually easy to understand.
When Robinhood Chain first took off, a bunch of people rushed over to launch tokens and issue coins; Pons was basically the busiest place during that time.
At its peak in early September, nearly 25,000 new tokens were issued from Pons in a single day, with daily fees close to 6 million USD.
Money, people, and attention all crowded in there, so naturally, PONS was in demand.
In the past 7 days, Pons’ fees have dropped to about 10.5 million USD total, averaging roughly 1.5 million per day. Compared to the peak of nearly 6 million per day, the hype has definitely cooled off a lot.
So now, I actually don’t want to keep guessing whether 0.4 is the bottom every day.
For something like a Meme Launchpad, price drops aren’t that scary.
As long as there are still people making money, losing money, issuing new tokens, and rushing in at midnight to catch the dip, there’s still another story to tell.
What’s truly scary is opening Robinhood Chain one day and finding that everyone’s too lazy to even talk about Pons anymore. The narrative around banks now seems less appealing.
At today's $XRP-related conference in Seoul, the four major financial institutions in South Korea all attended to discuss using RLUSD for cross-border payments and tokenized government bond settlements, but the market price barely reacted.
$SOL is in a similar situation. The bank stablecoin Roughrider Coin has launched on Solana, with over 90 banks and credit unions in North Dakota connected for interbank settlements, yet the SOL price still hovers around $120.
The key point is that these two projects' integration with traditional financial institutions is not just a concept.
Here in South Korea, Kbank is already exploring blockchain cross-border payments and researching the use of Ripple infrastructure to advance tokenized government bond settlements; Solana is also gradually entering the traditional banking payment system.
So now, the bank narrative looks more like a "slow variable."
It can enhance the market's expectations for the project's long-term fundamentals and may provide some bottom support, but relying on bank cooperation to directly drive a short-term price surge is still quite difficult.
What really determines short-term spikes are market sentiment, capital flows, and the overall market environment.
Having fundamentals ≠ immediate price pump.
This might be the most realistic aspect of the bank narrative right now.The facade is still having glass installed upward, and the pile foundation settlement monitor is already alarming — this is my only judgment on $YGG at this moment.
First, look at this "construction record": a 24-hour increase of 6.31%. In architectural design, adding a floor to a building in a single day is not called growth; it’s called an uncalculated structural addition. It doesn’t add new load-bearing walls nor recalculates reinforcement ratios; it just stacks load on the existing frame. The first reaction to this stacking is stress concentration at the top.
Where is the stress concentrated? The short-term RSI has already given the answer: 74.3. This is not "high"; it means the parapet wall has been pushed beyond its design limit. Anyone who has worked on high-rises knows that overbuying is like concrete strength reaching a critical point—imperceptible to the naked eye, but cracks are already spreading internally. Meanwhile, the long-term RSI is only 38.6, in the neutral zone — meaning the foundation is not yet damaged but hasn’t reached design strength either; the whole building is in a "top overloaded, bottom unconsolidated" misaligned state.
Next, look at the Bollinger Bands baseline. The short-term price is at 102% of the upper band, only -0.1% from the upper band, but +7.3% from the lower band. Translated into engineering terms: the building is already pressed against the top cover, and the buffer zone below has been depleted by more than 70%. True structural safety never relies on "just standing" but on "having margin." The mid-term Bollinger Band position is 71%, +3.1% from the upper band and +8.5% from the lower band, indicating some elasticity in the middle layer, but the short term is already at the top.
A misaligned structure like this has only one way to handle it: wait for it to rebound to the reserved elevation, then remove the overloaded parts.
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.02 (current price +3.8%)
Take Profit 1: $0.02 (-10.4%)
Take Profit 2: $0.02 (-7.8%)
Stop Loss: $0.02 (+16.2%)
Why place the entry point 3.8% above the current price? Because entering directly in an overbought state is like cutting into a structure before the formwork is removed; the structure is still under stress, and you can’t accurately measure the real deflection. Waiting for the price to expand another 3.8% upward to the preset construction level is the point of highest load concentration and the most solid short position pivot. Take Profit 1 is set at -10.4%, Take Profit 2 at -7.8%, because the short-term only has +7.3% margin from the lower band; once the price pulls back, it will first seek that lower band rather than falling deeper — the logic for the first target is "return to the lower band," not "collapse." The second target is shallower, reserved as a buffer for structural repetition, first realizing the main load-bearing section, then deciding whether to continue downward.
As for the +16.2% stop loss line, it corresponds not to price but to the red line of the overload test. If the short-term RSI continues upward from 74.3, volume must increase simultaneously — that would be equivalent to continuing to transport bricks to the top without changing the original reinforcement; at that moment, I admit I’m wrong and exit.
I have been designing for thirty years; the most expensive lesson is never drawing the wrong plan but celebrating topping out prematurely on a site without final acceptance.
The current problem with $YGG is not whether it’s worth building, but that this round has only completed the curtain wall skeleton; the main structure hasn’t been closed yet, but someone has already started selling model units.
Drawings can be beautiful, but the engineering must hold up.I took a quick look at the market before bed; besides the positions I still hold, I don't plan to make any other moves tonight.
The biggest change in $BTC these past two days isn't how much it has risen, but that after falling, it can slowly recover.
A few days ago, the market was quite pessimistic around 83,000; now that it's moving back up, sentiment quickly returns. I think the easiest mistake here is to start fearing missing out as soon as it rises.
As long as BTC holds the key levels, the bias remains bullish. If it really accelerates the breakout, then I'll look at $ETH and $SOL to see if there's a chance for a catch-up rally. As for the small coins that suddenly surged a lot, I basically won't chase them tonight.
Most people think the bull market is over when prices fall,
and after two green candles, they start planning when to retire.
Tonight, my move might be the hardest:
Turn off the market, go to sleep.
After all, checking the K-line less once at midnight might mean avoiding opening a random contract trade.$BTC is currently fluctuating around 84,000, with the previous high near 87,000 facing resistance after a surge, and short-term bullish momentum has clearly weakened. Although yesterday's non-farm payroll data was weak, BTC still pulled back after the surge, indicating that selling pressure above remains significant.
During the National Day holiday, market liquidity was relatively weak, making short-term swings more likely. The key focus remains on support around 82,000; if this support breaks, the adjustment space may further open up. My current view is still bearish, but I will not blindly chase shorts.
$ETH's movement basically follows BTC, currently fluctuating near 2,680. Compared to BTC, its short-term performance is slightly stronger, but the overall structure has not completely escaped the consolidation phase.
As for whether this rally can retest 120,000, I am not overly optimistic for now. Market funds are being diverted to new investment directions such as stocks and tokenized assets, and it remains to be seen whether incremental liquidity will return to the crypto market.
$HYPE is relatively stronger, with short-term fundamentals still supported. However, its core issues remain the circulating supply and subsequent unlocking pressure. If new supply continues to be released and buyback and burn cannot fully offset it, valuation pressure may gradually emerge.
Additionally, in September, the US non-farm payroll added only 29,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, significantly weaker than previous expectations; this will affect market judgments on the Fed's future policy path, but weak employment data does not necessarily mean BTC will continue to rise. A month, a few things I learned 1. The market never lacks opportunities, it lacks capital. One liquidation might take months to recover from. 2. Leverage is not an amplifier, it's a meat grinder. Even if the direction is right under high leverage, a single spike can knock you out. 3. Stop loss is not admitting defeat, it's survival. Trading without stop loss is no different from gambling. 4. Knowledge does not equal ability. Understanding candlesticks doesn't mean you can control your impulses; the biggest enemy in trading is never the market, but your own greed and fear. 5. In crypto, there is no "sure profit," only "survival." Those who survive a year in this market are far fewer than those who have made hundredfold gains. In conclusion My account went to zero, and it's false to say it doesn't hurt. But compared to the loss of money, the biggest gain this month is seeing myself clearly. I once thought I was here to "invest," but actually I was "speculating"; I once thought I was "learning to trade," but actually I was just "repeating mistakes." The crypto world will not disappear, opportunities are always there. But before that, I need to learn one thing first—respect the market, respect risk, learn not to lose before talking about making money. This 100% loss is the most expensive tuition I have ever paid. I hope my future self can remember today's pain.  If you, like me, paid tuition as soon as you entered the crypto world, don't be discouraged. Resetting to zero is not scary; what's scary is not learning from it after resetting to zero. BTC data watch: $BTC options expiration at 30,500 contracts, Put Call Ratio 1.07, max pain point 82000,
notional value 2.63 billion;
$ETH expiration at 116,000 contracts, PCR 1.17, max pain point 2660, notional 320 million. In the first week after quarterly settlement, BTC fluctuated around 85000 for over a week, rebounded on settlement day, bullish large volume activity.
Volatility-wise, implied volatility for main terms dropped compared to last week and two weeks ago, at a low level in this bull market;
monthly realized volatility is similar, risk premium decreased. Gex peak is above 90000, with downward Gex dispersed. After 10 months of bearishness, a small bull has lasted over a month, now sideways adjustment, sentiment improving.
#US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% $ZAMA relies entirely on short-term funds, the leaders are all falling, what are you thinking about a rebound wave?Who never loses money trading? Who can guarantee making a profit forever? Anyone who boldly claims they always profit is basically a scammer.
Recently, some people caught a big gain, but after a normal pullback, they were criticized harshly. They act all righteous, but in the end, they just want to leverage the traffic to sell their off-exchange copy trading tools.
To be honest: on-exchange copy trading has both profits and losses, at least you still control your own positions; off-exchange copy trading is truly a death trap, harming both others and yourself. I've personally seen off-exchange copy trading bots smash through stop losses on the charts.
In this market, what you really need to be wary of is never the market ups and downs, but those who keep their eyes on your principal. $DOGEOh heavens! 30 times in 30 days, a maximum crazy profit of 78,000, but in just a few days, $ZEC brutally knocked me back to reality! Waking up from a big dream, it really hurts deeply 😭
Reviewing the ZEC trades these days, it feels like the market maker isn’t watching the K-line but has installed surveillance in my brain:
🔴 As soon as I go long, it plunges waterfall-style;
🔵 When I cut the long and go short, it immediately moves sideways, slowly grinding me down;
🔴 When I finally can’t hold the short and close it, it shoots up like a spring onion from dry ground!
I get emotional and chase longs again, only to get stuck at the peak...
In the end, there’s no such thing as “the market maker targeting me,” it’s purely my own trading mindset collapsing.
I forced entries at wrong points, tried to trade without signals, tried to recover losses, and got greedy after profits. In the end, going back and forth between longs and shorts, I gave back the money I originally earned bit by bit.
Longs lose, shorts grind, closing shorts leads to a rise, chasing longs gets trapped again.
The highest profit of 78,000 was brutally given back to about 24,000, meaning I gave back 54,000.
This time really taught me a lesson.
The worst thing in trading isn’t making one wrong call, but continuing to make mistakes without stopping.
Brothers, the bloody lesson is right here.
I’ll rest for a few days, calm down, and then look at the market again.
Staying alive in the market is more important than anything. 🥲$SNDK SanDisk's trend is really confusing!
After the release of yesterday's non-farm payroll data, most US stocks saw a slight rally, but SanDisk kept drifting down during and after trading hours. Why is that?
1. It has risen too much, with high valuation and expectations. The market has already priced in a lot of optimistic forecasts for NAND price increases and AI storage demand, so even a slight disturbance easily triggers profit-taking.
2. The entire storage sector is weakening simultaneously, coupled with the recent rise in US Treasury yields, which is gradually increasing market risk.I spent quite a bit of time today looking at SAND because it rose 92% in two days, and I happen to have a short grid position on it.
Let me clarify the reason first, because it's quite counterintuitive: someone exploited a cross-chain bridge vulnerability to mint 500 million SAND out of thin air on Base and BSC. The three Korean exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone) put SAND on trading alert and suspended deposits and withdrawals. Today, the alert was lifted, and the price rose 24% on the same day.
In other words, the rise is not due to "improved fundamentals" but because the "risk was removed."
Then I looked at three derivatives indicators and was a bit surprised: the funding rate is −0.3250%, shorts have to pay nearly 0.98% per day; perpetuals are 1% cheaper than spot; and open interest is actually decreasing. The only explanation combining these three is that this rally is not driven by new longs buying but by old shorts covering.
I'm on the side that's being run off. The upper bound of my grid is 0.08313, and today's high was 0.082990, stuck tight.
My mistake was actually very simple: I tried to catch a short squeeze driven by an event with the reasoning "it rose 92% in two days, it should pull back." But the fuel for a short squeeze is not how high the price is but "how many shorts remain unliquidated." These two things are completely different.
When you encounter a rally "caused by risk removal," do you see it as an opportunity or a trap?
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Today, while reviewing on-chain data, I found something quite divisive.
In the past week, BTC whales reduced their holdings by 30,000 coins, worth $2.52 billion. This isn't small retail selling off; it's large holders actively reducing exposure near the 87,000 resistance level.
But at the same time, ETH whales increased their holdings by 60,000 coins.
One is selling, the other is buying. The same group of smart money, but completely opposite directions.
Analyst Ali provided a very specific judgment framework: 87,000 is the upper boundary of the price channel that has suppressed BTC over the past two weeks, and 82,500 is the lower boundary. If BTC falls near 82,500 and whales start accumulating again, that is a confirmed buy signal.
In plain language: big holders think 84,000 is not cheap now, but they are willing to buy at 82,500.
My judgment is straightforward: BTC is stuck in a middle ground here, and chasing longs has very poor cost-effectiveness. Whales have already exited near 87,000, so retail rushing in to catch the falling knife? 82,500 is the next position worth acting on.
The logic for ETH is different. Whales are adding positions against the trend, indicating that in their eyes, ETH has better value than BTC. 2,670-2,680 is support, 2,695-2,710 is short-term resistance. If ETH retests support without breaking it, its rebound potential will be greater than BTC.
Buy BTC below 82,500, watch ETH around 2,650. Don't chase in the middle.
Do you have ammo in hand? At what price level are you planning to act? Let's discuss in the comments 👇
$BTC $ETH The market is currently betting on whether it's a "one-time or multiple starting points," but I think this question itself is wrong. What really matters is whether the liquidity withdrawn after the rate hike will be converted into risk assets.
Here are some on-chain facts: BTC has been sideways around 84,800 for over a month, the 83,500 to 85,500 range hasn't been broken, and volume has been shrinking. This low-volume sideways state means limited downside because no one is selling hard; but don't rush to call a bull run either, because no one is leveraging up.
On the day the rate hike lands, it will most likely drop first—not the coin, but the leverage. What you really should do is avoid opening new positions that day and wait for the third candlestick to see if there's volume.
My approach is simple: no leverage before the rate hike, no bottom fishing, no betting on data. Data is a gambler's self-comfort; discipline is my alpha.
Did you add positions before the rate hike? Comment below, let me see how many people got buried.The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond has reached its highest level since 2002, presenting a dual-signal dilemma for Bitcoin
The yield on the US 30-year Treasury bond has risen to its highest level since 2002,
The net wealth of affluent households, at $6.03 trillion, is 14.3 times that of the bottom 50% of households,
The purchasing power of the US dollar has declined by 23% since 2020.
The rise in the 30-year US Treasury yield exerts discount rate pressure on Bitcoin,
At the same time, persistent inflation and the decline in the dollar's purchasing power reinforce Bitcoin's logic as an inflation hedge, $BTC
The market faces two conflicting signals $ETH.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 A Month in the Crypto Circle: From High Hopes to Account Wiped Out
Unknowingly, it has been exactly one month since I entered the crypto circle.
A month ago, I stepped into this world with curiosity and a bit of a "try my luck" mindset. Watching others share screenshots of their profits, hearing stories of "100x coins" and "overnight riches," I couldn't help but feel restless. I thought I was rational enough, believing that as long as I learned from top influencers about K-lines and checked funding rates, I could get a piece of the pie in this market.
However, reality gave me the harshest lesson — a 100% loss rate on my account, with my entire principal wiped out.
What did I go through in this month?
At first, I just tested the waters with small positions, making a few hundred yuan and feeling "gifted." Then I started increasing leverage, from 3x to 10x to 50x. After each liquidation, I told myself "next time I'll definitely set a stop loss," but when opening the next position, greed made me throw stop losses out the window again.
I chased the rallies, FOMO-ing in after sharp spikes, only to buy at the peak; I also tried bottom fishing, thinking "it must rebound after such a big drop," but ended up sinking deeper. I looked at countless K-line charts, studied moving averages, MACD, Fibonacci retracements, but all that knowledge was swallowed by emotions the moment I placed an order.
The most ironic part is, I clearly knew that contracts are a zero-sum game, that "the money you make is the money someone else loses," yet I always thought I would be the one "making money off others."
$BTC $ETH $SOL My $BTC 10x long position's floating loss has narrowed to 19%.
The average entry price is $86,460, and the position hasn't changed. BTC is currently at $84,836, with the loss shrinking from 22% to 19%, but it's still far from the entry price.
According to the current market conditions, the 1-hour EMA20 is around $84,750, and the RSI is about 50. The price has returned above the moving average, and the recent hourly candles have pushed from $84,500 to $84,800, though it was blocked once near $84,950. First, it needs to close above that, then we look at $85,700.
Perpetual positions have decreased by about 3.1% compared to roughly 23 hours ago. This rebound mainly happened during position reductions, more like short covering. For the rebound to go further, I need to see price and positions increase together; the funding rate is close to zero, and the longs haven't crowded yet.
Among OKX smart money, 21 are long and 11 are short, with longs accounting for 52.0% of the amount, indicating a bullish bias, but total positions have decreased by about $24.72 million in the past 24 hours. They don't say it out loud, but their actions are honest: bullish in words, but shrinking their bets.
High-level buyers are still selling, and long-term US Treasury yields are also weighing on risk assets, so the external environment isn't easy. If BTC can reclaim the average long cost of smart money at $85,704, then my position can truly breathe.
I'm watching $84,950 and $85,700 first. If the 1-hour breaks below $84,400 again, the rebound is basically in vain; if it breaks $83,900, the chicken leg meal will have to be postponed further.Cathie Wood has spoken up again.
This time she said that US Treasury yields are actually at a historical median, and the real outliers were in the 70s to 90s.
My first reaction was: who is this meant for?
Then she added a data point: AI inference costs have dropped 99.99% in one year.
Now that's interesting.
She’s basically saying, don’t keep fixating on inflation; what’s really changing is the cost structure.
But here’s the problem: costs have dropped so drastically, where did the money go?
90% of data center financing flows to the US, and that answer is right there.
My guess is she’s trying to keep the AI narrative alive while also calming fears around US Treasuries.
From the opposing side’s perspective, those who believe this story are already on board, and those who don’t won’t budge no matter what.
As for me, an old retail investor, I’m happy to listen to the big players’ stories, but when it comes to real money, I watch the market.
She’s talking a lot, but my account is pretty quiet.
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在
#美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力 #OpenAI拟1.4万亿美元估值融资300亿美元 $ETH #英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元
NVIDIA's stock price has hit a new all-time high, with a market value approaching $6 trillion.
NVIDIA has fallen for two months, and the market fears no buyers. Morgan Stanley says the bottleneck isn't demand.
▪️ On 10/2, intraday price hit 237.88, a record high, with a market cap of 5.7 trillion; Q2 revenue was 96.2 billion, up 106% year-over-year
▪️ Two months ago, it lost 1 trillion in market value, but since late July it has rebounded nearly 25%
▪️ Morgan Stanley listed it as a top pick in March, removed it after 6 months, and reinstated it this week with a $300 price target
▪️ Reason for reinstatement: The bottleneck for AI isn't chips, but power and money for data centers
▪️ It projects FY2028 growth at 70%, while stating real demand is close to 100%
The disagreement isn't whether it can keep rising, but that the bottleneck for AI has shifted. In the past two years, the fear was no buyers; now the shortage is power, land, and money — these three can't be solved just by making more chips.
But Morgan Stanley frames this as good news: the tighter the power, the more valuable the side that can generate more computing power per watt. The metric shifts from "how many chips sold" to "how much computing power per watt" — its fully utilized Vera Rubin product sells exactly this.
This bottleneck: is it a new growth point or a ceiling for NVIDIA — which side are you on?📉 The post-NFP rebound is losing momentum — BTC slips back as ZEC and TRUMP take a bigger hit. #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 🟠 $BTC — $84,814 BTC fell from $86,868 back toward $84.8K, giving back much of the post-NFP move. The 29K jobs figure initially boosted sentiment, but continued ETF outflows are keeping pressure on the market. $85K is now the key resistance; if $84K fails, $82K could come back into focus. With weekend liquidity thin, confirmation may come after the market opens next week. ⚫ $Brothers, this October start is really brutal!
Last night I was still thinking that the low-volume rebound might stabilize, but in the blink of an eye, a bearish candle shattered that illusion. $BTC and $SOL both dropped simultaneously; the bulls had just caught a breath, only to be pushed back down by the market again.
Especially $SOL, this thing acts like it has an amplifier when the market weakens. When BTC drops a little, it amplifies the move; if the bulls start to get trampled collectively, BTC breaks support, ETH faces pressure, contracts liquidate, panic spreads, and finally, high-volatility coins accelerate their decline—that’s what we really need to guard against.
Honestly, I used to think buying meant hope, but now I realize that hope is like wild grass on the ground—blow by the wind, and it withers away.
Since we’re already in this game, we can only endure silently. Oh well, oh well, the money lost was probably taken by the market for some other use 😂.
But the most tormenting thing about the market is never just the drop itself; it’s giving you a little rebound, making you feel it’s about to rise, then smashing your confidence again with another bearish candle.
Many long positions finally can’t hold, not because of the first bearish candle, but because of the thought “just wait a bit more.” Holding once feels okay, holding twice starts to panic, and after continuous drops, both position and faith can’t hold.
So don’t rush to prove you’re right now; control your position and guard your risk line. Whether this is a new round of short squeezes still needs further observation.
A market drop isn’t scary; what’s scary is losing your rhythm in panic. Stay in the game first, and when the opportunity comes, you’ll have the right to act again. #Strategy再购BTC, multiple treasury funds increase holdings simultaneously. Strategy raised funds through equity issuance this round, spending about $142.7 million to purchase 1,665 BTC, bringing total holdings to 847,000 BTC, remaining the largest publicly listed company Bitcoin holder worldwide. Not just it alone, similar treasury companies like Strive and BitMine are also increasing assets simultaneously; the latter continues dollar-cost averaging Ethereum. The consensus of listed companies collectively hoarding coins has formed again.
A key background for this round of collective accumulation is the prior price recovery, with many companies' holdings moving out of unrealized losses, balance sheets repaired, and financing windows reopened. The funds for these companies' coin purchases mostly come from equity financing, not idle cash, essentially leveraging the US stock capital market to continuously provide incremental buying pressure for crypto assets.
For the market, corporate treasuries represent long-term capital; after buying, they generally do not sell in the short term, which can lock up some circulating supply, reduce market selling pressure, and support market sentiment. But objectively, it is not a guarantee of steady price increase. This model heavily depends on the financing environment; if coin prices plunge deeply, companies face large unrealized losses, subsequent equity financing will be hindered, purchase plans will stall, or even forced sell-offs may occur.
This is a structural positive, indicating more and more listed companies are incorporating crypto assets into their asset reserves. However, treasury accumulation is a lagging signal, generally occurring during market recovery phases, and should not be directly used as a basis for short-term bullish trades.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 💥【Contract Data】Long positions got buried again
🔥 24h total liquidations $434 million, 74% are long positions
📊 OI (Open Interest) as high as $67.9 billion, leverage still heavy
⚠️ This is the second time 87,000 has been rejected at the door
📍Latest data
BTC: Around 84,600, consolidating in the 84,000-85,000 range
24h total liquidations: $433.57M, longs account for 74%
Interest rate hike expectations cooling: October hike probability dropped from 66% to 22%
📊Analysis
① Long liquidations dominate, indicating longs chasing 87,000 were hit back hard
② OI remains high, leverage not truly cleared, future volatility likely to be amplified
③ Cooling rate hike expectations are bullish but failed to offset profit-taking pressure at highs
🎯Key levels
Hold 83,898 → maintain range consolidation
Break below 83,898 → may accelerate towards 80,000
💬 This wave of "longs buried," do you think it's a shakeout or a real drop?
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 When looking up at the moon, you also need to look down to pick up pennies.
This is the logic behind my simultaneous allocation to SPCX and Kweichow Moutai.
SPCX is the moon: ideals, growth, and a more distant future.
Kweichow Moutai is the sixpence at your feet: cash flow, dividends, and life itself. It frees you from worrying about your next meal, giving you the confidence and peace of mind to keep looking up at that bright moon.
Ideals stretch your vision far ahead, reality ensures your life is secure. Having both means you can walk steadily and see far.I am the mid-term intelligence guy. Data focus: $BTC options expiration at 30,500 contracts, Put Call Ratio 1.07, max pain point 82,000, notional value 2.63 billion; $ETH expiration at 116,000 contracts, PCR 1.17, max pain point 2,660, notional 320 million. In the first week after quarterly settlement, BTC oscillated around 85,000 for over a week, rebounded on settlement day, with bullish large volume activity. Volatility-wise, the main term implied volatility has dropped compared to last week a$SAND
The blockchain gaming sector suddenly lit up today.
SAND current price 0.0752, up 19.6% in 24 hours, contract funding rate turned negative, shorts are still piling in.
Directionally, I'm bullish; if it holds above 0.07 on the pullback, I'll keep holding, if it drops below 0.065, then we'll reconsider.
$SAND 【Crypto Circle Script】
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在
Before last night's nonfarm payrolls release, many brothers thought that with such poor employment, the Federal Reserve would finally ease up.
But U.S. Treasuries first fell then rose, and long-term yields were pulled back.
This shows that nonfarm payrolls can only affect short-term rate hike expectations, but cannot suppress long-term interest rates.
Because long-term U.S. Treasuries consider not only employment but also inflation, energy prices, fiscal deficits, and how much more debt the U.S. will issue.
Simply put, the short end listens to the Fed's speeches, while the long end calculates America's own accounts.
Employment is cooling down, which should theoretically be good for easing.
But long-term interest rates refuse to come down, and risk assets still can't catch a break.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $SAND rose 92% in two days: a vulnerability, a lifting of restrictions, and a short squeeze. SAND rose from 0.043180 to 0.082990 in two days, +92.2%. I arranged the reasons in chronological order, and the conclusion is somewhat counterintuitive: it was not driven by positive news but by "risk being removed." How this wave unfolded: October 2 close at 0.062200 (+41.30%): after a 4-hour rise of +17.14%, it retraced −9.62%. October 3 touched 0.082990, closed at 0.077320 (+24.33%), with the rhythm: 04:00 +10.82% → 08:00 +14.72% → 12:00 peak → 16:00 −6.39% → 20:00 +6.78%. Current price 0.0758. Two days +92.2%, no day was flat in between: this is not a slow bull market, it is an event. Cause: 500 million $SAND "unbacked issuance" | Time | What happened | |---|---| | Event occurrence | Someone minted 500 million unbacked SAND using a cross-chain bridge vulnerability on Base and BSC | | Project response | The Sandbox stated the vulnerability was controlled; actual loss about 700,000 USD | | Exchange reaction | Upbit, Bithumb, CFollow-up Attention
Date Event Potential Impact
Ongoing Attention Iran Strait of Hormuz Situation Geopolitical risk escalation will suppress risk appetite, rising oil prices strengthen inflation expectations
October 14 US CPI Data If inflation exceeds expectations, December rate hike expectations may intensify
October 27-28 FOMC Meeting October rate hike probability only 15%-17%, but "wait and see in December" becomes the mainstream logic $BTC $ETH $ZEC #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 【5000 U Challenge 10000 U｜Dual-Coin Profit Real Trading Diary】
Day 18
Starting Capital: 5000U
Current Capital: 4976.76U
Cumulative Profit: -23.24U (-0.46%)
Today's Profit: -66.84U (-1.32%)
Market Review 📝
The probing during data week continues, with the non-farm payroll and PCE expectations repeatedly tugging the market. ZEC has started to pull back, with neither bulls nor bears establishing a clear direction, and macro bearish sentiment continues to ferment.
Tokenized assets are under simultaneous pressure; ZEC and XSOXS are the main sources of today's account drawdown. Both coins experienced significant declines, directly causing the account net value to fall below the initial starting capital for the first time.
Today's Operations & Thoughts 💡
No aggressive position increases or panic selling today.
Objectively, the overall position size is not heavy, but the drawdown still exceeded my previous expectations.
Seeing the net value curve turn downward inevitably brings some disappointment, which is an unavoidable lesson in real trading. Reviewing the situation, the core pressure of this drawdown comes from the simultaneous weakening of $ZEC and $xSOXS, with the largest current spot holding being ZEC, 900U at a cost of 1480, currently priced at 1300. The pullback of this coin directly drags down the overall account value.
Although I mainly trade spot, honestly, how far can this $ZEC correction go? At worst, it drops to 500, allowing me to slowly accumulate at low prices and sell high to earn interest back. Although following Warren Buffett's principle of not selling means no real loss, the time cost does exist.
This also reminds me that even if the total position is not high, the correlation risk within sectors must be taken seriously.
The market will never fully follow your predictions.
Here, I also want to remind fellow real traders: investing is a marathon; temporary unrealized losses are feedback from the market, not a denial of personal ability. Always manage risk well, keep a steady mindset, and avoid rushing to recover losses quickly, as haste leads to impulsive decisions.
I still hold sufficient stablecoin ammunition, no panic, no frustration, continuing to patiently observe according to the original plan, waiting for more certain signals before taking action.
⚠️ Risk Warning: This is only a personal real trading record and does not constitute any investment advice.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Finally, let's wrap up with the news and what to watch next. Here are some updates released after 6 PM (Taiwan time). ▌Market Data Coinglass: 24-hour net liquidation across the network totaled $349 million, with long positions accounting for $307 million. Coinglass: BTC contract holdings decreased by 6.05% in 24 hours, about $54.091 billion. Panic and Greed Index (alternative.me) was 67, compared to 72 the previous day. OKX 10 PM account long-short ratio: BTC dropped from 1.34 PM to 1.26 PM. ▌ETF Farside at 22:57, BlackRock IBIT and ETHA on Friday were still at "-"." The portion of BTC spot ETFs announced this week saw a total net inflow of about $82.9 million (excluding Friday's IBIT). Ethereum spot ETFs saw net outflows for three consecutive days from Tuesday to Thursday, totaling about $118 million. ▌Industry Glassnode: Short-term holders entering at high levels are selling, with two groups of buyers at costs of 97,000 and 89,000 currently holding on. Ethereum L2 Blast announced closure; it can be withdrawn back to mainnet via the official interface before 10/26. Fiserv's digital asset platform is now live, with Bank of North Dakota's Roughrider Coin on SolanaI’m the mid-term intelligence guy!
Latest news: the SEC approved 3x leveraged ETPs tied to Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas.
This expands the leverage toolkit and could amplify short-term volatility in $BTC and $ETH. But leverage cuts both ways—pullbacks can also accelerate.
Mid: this is less about a pure bullish signal and more about traditional capital markets expanding their leveraged exposure to crypto and commodities.
#DailyOrbit