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My first encounter with virtual currency was while waiting for the bus.
Two people next to me were chatting excitedly,
saying that buying some $BTC casually could make a profit.
I felt an itch in my heart listening to them.
When I got home, I downloaded the app,
registered and verified until midnight.
After buying, my palms were sweaty.
Then I stared at the screen,
smiling foolishly when it rose a bit,
cursing myself for being reckless when it dropped a bit.
Later, $ETH seemed more stable,
so I moved some money into it.
But it just stayed flat,
flat enough to make me want to uninstall every day.
Then $SOL surged strongly,
I couldn't resist chasing it.
It pulled back right after I entered,
trapping me so badly I even muted the group chat.
Some in the group shouted "take off",
while others shouted "run fast".
I was sometimes confident, sometimes panicked.
I also tried contracts.
Once I opened leverage,
my heart pounded like a drum.
The night I got liquidated, I sat on the balcony blowing wind.
Later, I gradually came to understand.
This thing can't be a way of life.
Now I only use spare money.
Losing it doesn't affect paying rent.
If I make a little profit, I withdraw it.
Buy some barbecue,
or add something for the family.
If I feel itchy, I go downstairs to walk around.
When tired of walking, I don't want to buy anymore.
When others show off profits, I just swipe away.
When others shout about hundredfold gains, I treat it like listening to a comedy show.
There’s too much noisy news.
Good news today, bad news tomorrow.
Anyway, I've been beaten by the market.
Now I don't watch the market every day.
I set a reminder and leave it there.
Being able to sleep soundly is better than anything.
Everyone dreams of getting rich quick,
but you have to survive first.
Don't borrow money.
Don't get carried away.
Don't believe in guaranteed profits.
These words sound corny,
but they come from losses.
Now when I watch the market,
I just treat it as entertainment.
No longer fantasizing about turning it all around in one shot.
Take it slow.
Be steady. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 #The US-Iran situation remains tense, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves Bros, the G7 finally can't sit still and is digging into their reserves.
The G7 held a video conference and decided to coordinate through the IEA to release up to 100 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil reserves over the next 4 months. Priority will be given to accelerating diesel release in the first 20 days, and if the pressure persists, more will be released later. Why the urgency? Because the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, the US-Iran situation remains tense, and oil prices are driving the global economy crazy.
Is this move effective in the short term? Definitely. Pouring cold water on oil prices can suppress inflation expectations, and US Treasury yields can also ease. But you have to understand the essence: this is digging into inventory to relieve the emergency, not adding new production capacity. The IEA has already depleted most of its reserves, and with this 100 million barrels released, the inventory buffer is getting thinner. As long as the US and Iran keep clashing and the strait remains closed, when the reserves run out, oil prices will rebound.
For our BTC, this is a short-term breather. If oil prices stabilize a bit, the pressure on risk assets will ease a little. But don't celebrate too early; last night's nonfarm payroll surprise couldn't push down long-term yields, indicating the market is trading not just short-term data but also long-term inflation and debt concerns. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 📊 Short-term Market Analysis (15 minutes - 1 hour): Low volume consolidation, facing directional choice
· Price Performance: After a rapid drop from 87,239 to 83,826, market sentiment has become cautious. Currently, the price is oscillating narrowly around 84,600 (-0.81%).
· Technical Patterns:
· 15-minute level: Moving averages (MA5/10/20/30) are tightly clustered near 84,560, Bollinger Bands are severely contracted (upper band 84,619, lower band 84,512). MACD is flattening near the zero line (DIF -0.7, DEA -4.6). Such extreme low-volume convergence usually signals an upcoming new round of volatility (major movement).
· 1-hour level: After bottoming at 83,826, price has slightly rebounded but is currently constrained by MA5/MA10 (84,564/84,574) resistance, with MA30 (85,088) forming strong overhead resistance. Although MACD is below zero, the green bars are very short (7.7), indicating short-term bearish momentum is temporarily exhausted and the market is in a consolidation phase.
· Short-term Key Levels: Support lies between 83,800 - 84,000; resistance is between 85,000 - 85,100.
📉 Mid-term Trend (4 hours - 1 day): High-level pullback, testing critical support
· 4-hour level: After surging to 87,239, price met resistance confirming heavy selling pressure near the previous high of 87,374, forming a potential "double top" pattern. MACD has formed a bearish crossover at a high level (green bars -66.7), and price is testing the support zone of MA20 (84,434) and MA30 (84,121).
· Daily level:
· The daily candle closed with a long upper shadow bearish candle, indicating strong selling pressure above.
· Daily MACD shows a bearish crossover and is diverging downward (DIF 1925.5, DEA 2051.9, green bars -252.8), signaling an ongoing correction at the daily level.
· The core defense of the major trend lies around the daily MA20 (82,404) and the Bollinger middle band (82,404). As long as the 82,000-82,500 zone is not decisively broken, the bullish macro structure remains intact.
📰 Mixed News Sentiment
· Bullish (long-term): Figure 4 indicates "SEC approval of 3x leveraged ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, etc.", providing traditional capital with more tools to enter; Figure 1 states "VanEck says Bitcoin is in the early stage of a bull market."
· Bearish (short-term): Figure 2 shows "Stablecoin market cap has shrunk by $14 billion since May, liquidity weakening," and Figure 3 notes "Bitdeer sold 292.3 BTC this week," indicating some short-term capital pressure, explaining recent weak rallies.
💡 Comprehensive Trading Suggestions
· Overall Direction: Bullish in the mid-to-long term (a consolidation phase early in a bull market), but short-term is entering a wide-range consolidation and pullback period. Do not hastily conclude the bull market is over, but also avoid blindly chasing highs.
· Trading Strategy:
· Wait for a breakout: The 15-minute Bollinger Bands are extremely narrow; do not rush to open positions blindly around the 84,600 midpoint. Patiently wait for a volume breakout above 85,100 (go long on the right side, target 86,000) or a decisive break below 83,800 (go short on the right side, target 82,500-83,000).
· Build spot positions gradually: For spot traders, the current position is in the late stage of a pullback. Watch for excellent re-entry opportunities near the daily MA20 (~82,400) and adopt a staggered order placement strategy.
· Strict risk control: Recent market action has frequent "fakeouts" and spikes (e.g., last night’s sharp drop to 83,826), making contract trading prone to liquidation on both sides. It is recommended to keep leverage under 5x and always set hard stop losses (e.g., stop loss for long positions below 83,000). $BTC $RESOLV surged 27.44% to 0.02588 on strong volume after consolidating near 0.01959. Price is holding above MA5/10/20 with bullish alignment.
The move is supported by the volume breakout, heavily negative funding (-0.02839%), and expectations around its RWA/Delta-neutral stablecoin infrastructure. With 3x isolated leverage, watch 0.022 (MA10) as key support and 0.02588 as the breakout level. A break above could intensify short-covering momentum.
$ETH $ZEC
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows ZEC really got me this time. Thought I'd exit at 1450, didn't exit at 1470 either, stubbornly held with stop at 1350, and the longer I held the worse it got. Looking back now, biggest issue wasn't how much ZEC fell, but that I didn't follow my own discipline. Look at BTC, it even bounced to around 86000 yesterday, now ∼84500, pullback not as brutal as ZEC. As long as BTC's key support holds, I still treat it as consolidation not trend breakdown. ETH actually feels more comfortable, oscillating bIf BTC continues to hold above 85K, market risk appetite may gradually recover, with funds potentially rotating from mainstream coins to quality small caps. Candidates for catch-up rallies to watch:
$OKB — Platform buybacks and stablecoin ecosystem expansion may provide price support, but volume continuation needs to be observed.
$WLD — The AI identity narrative still holds imaginative potential; only a valid breakout above $0.42 could accelerate the rally.
$RE — Combining DeFi and RWA directions, small market cap brings high elasticity but also higher volatility.
$BICO — Short-term performance is relatively strong; $0.022 is a key defense level, and caution is needed if it breaks down.
BTC stabilization helps improve risk appetite, but small caps remain highly volatile. Pay attention to key levels, respond in batches, and avoid emotional chasing.
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 🔥🔥🔥$BTC is oscillating in a high-level range, with intense battles between bulls and bears between $83,500 and $87,300, and the short-term direction is unclear.
$87,000-$87,300 is a strong resistance zone; multiple attempts to break through have failed. Only a volume-backed close above this range offers an upward opportunity. $83,500 is a key support level; if broken, the target is $77,200.
Market supply and demand are tending toward balance: ETF institutional funds continue to flow in, but whales have sold 30,000 coins in the past week. Short-term profits of 33% have triggered significant take-profit selling pressure, which is hedging the buying side. Daily turnover is $6.4 billion, with insufficient volume to sustain a trending market.
Macro and geopolitical bullish and bearish factors offset each other: Soft U.S. employment data is positive for the market, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz bring risk-off pressure. These two forces are pulling in opposite directions, causing the market to continue oscillating. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #SEC new crypto asset custody regulations propose easing restrictions on institutional self-custody
This time, the SEC has reached far, directly regulating the custody stage.
On October 1st, they released a 760-page proposal focusing on one core issue: previously, institutions managing crypto for clients faced many restrictions and high thresholds. Now, registered investment advisors may be allowed to self-custody clients' crypto assets if they meet certain conditions. What conditions? Implement proper security measures, purchase insurance, and undergo independent auditor inspections. At the same time, third-party custody requirements are also relaxed; qualified state-chartered trust companies can serve as custodians. The proposal is still in the public comment phase for 60 days.
So what impact does this have on our crypto community?
First, the entry barrier for institutions is lowered again. Previously, custody was the biggest headache for large funds wanting to enter. Trusting exchanges risked collapse, self-custody risked compliance issues. Now that the SEC has clarified the rules, it’s like giving institutions a reassurance pill. The channel for big money to enter is wider, which is a solid long-term positive.
Second, the industry infrastructure is gradually being completed. Look at the SEC’s recent moves: fundraising frameworks, tokenized securities, and now custody. They’re not blocking the road; they’re building it. Compliance may cut some people short-term, but in the long run, it’s a moat. Projects relying on gray areas and misusing user assets will find it increasingly difficult to survive.
Don’t expect this news to immediately pump the market. It’s foundational work, not a short-term catalyst. But the stronger the foundation, the higher the building can rise.
What do you think? $BTC #BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
A sudden change in the wind? 😱 Institutions were previously chasing Bitcoin purchases, but now their pace has clearly slowed. After nearly $3.1 billion in net inflows over 9 consecutive days, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a combined net outflow of about $173 million over two days starting September 30; the Ethereum ETF also experienced net outflows for 3 consecutive days, with about $55.4 million outflow on October 1 alone.
Coinbase stated that Bitcoin profit-taking has risen to a yearly high, cooling spot buying.
$BTC is consolidating between 85,000 and 86,000; only a firm break above 86,000 will open the trend, with 82,000 as short-term support.
$ETH just probed the 2,600 range, currently around 2,700–2,750, with resistance near 2,770; only after breaking through can we look toward 2,800.
$SOL is currently around 120, with strong support at 118; last week the spot ETF set a weekly inflow record of about $188 million, but recently turned to outflows, with $5.9 million outflow on October 1.
The main reason behind this remains high interest rate pressure, causing institutions to temporarily withdraw from risk assets. If rate hike expectations continue to cool, capital may flow back into the crypto market.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 Brothers, after the non-farm payrolls "surprise," BTC and ETH surged then pulled back, with bulls and bears clashing again around 84,000.
$BTC $84,600 | $ETH $2,682
Bitcoin surged above $86,000 but fully retraced, while Ethereum slid from $2,750 down to $2,682. In the past 24 hours, shorts liquidated about $122 million, with total market liquidations at $210 million. This is a typical "good news priced in turns bad news" scenario — non-farm payrolls were far below expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in October dropped sharply from nearly 70% to around 10%, yet BTC faced profit-taking after the rally.
Whales are selling BTC and buying ETH, a divergence signal worth noting.
Analyst Ali pointed out that in the past week, BTC whales reduced holdings by about 30,000 coins (worth $2.52 billion), while ETH whales increased holdings by about 60,000 coins (worth $162 million), showing a clear "sell BTC, buy ETH" pattern. The capital flow is also diverging: BTC ETFs saw a net inflow of $103 million on October 2, while Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows for three consecutive days, with $55.4 million flowing out in a single day.
Key levels: $84,000 is short-term support; if broken, look to $82,000. On the upside, $86,000-$87,400 is a dense selling zone. For Ethereum, $2,660 is the maximum pain point for options and also the short-term bull-bear dividing line.
Discuss in the comments: whales selling BTC and buying ETH, can this rotation succeed?👇
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% PONS ran up this morning, thinking to wait for a rebound to enter again, but it kept falling. It's frustrating. Now I can only wait for another opportunity to enter. Entered too early, what a pity. The long-short ratio is still scary.
The resistance above $0.45-$0.48 has become strong, and the short-term lifeline below is $0.40; if it breaks, look for $0.35.
Everyone is going long, the main force is retreating, and the long positions are liquidating brutally. This is a typical "long graveyard.Brothers, this wave of $ZEC is completely over!
Latest news, three heavy blows hit simultaneously. First, the Bitget hacker incident continues to ferment, with attackers transferring 2,746 ZEC (about $3.9 million) into the Ironwood privacy pool, completely cutting off on-chain tracking paths, dousing Zcash's compliance image with cold water. Second, Grayscale Zcash ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $26.93 million, with cumulative net inflows shrinking from $268 million to $213 million, institutions are running. Third, ZEC rose from 480 to 1,698, up 253%, profit-taking piled up like a mountain, longs near 1,333 were liquidated for $76.59 million, with long liquidations accounting for 86%.
Technically, RSI has fallen back to a neutral zone at 50.2, ADX is as high as 52 but the direction has weakened. Key support is at 1,233; breaking below means free fall.
I only do short-term trades, take a bite and run, never get attached. Will consider scaling out of shorts near 1,233. $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $SAND woke up after a long sleep and suddenly surged more than 20%! 🚀
I added to the position twice along the way, while the funding fees were also surprisingly good.
In just 4 hours, the trade generated around 32U in funding income. 💰🔥#BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously turn to outflows, cooling capital heat. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have shifted from net inflows to net outflows, which is a warning signal in this round of the market, indicating that the institutional incremental funds that previously drove the rise are beginning to stage a temporary exit, and market enthusiasm has clearly declined.
In the previous two rebound rallies, continuous ETF inflows were the core support, with funds entering through compliant products, directly driving the price upward. The simultaneous redemption of these two major varieties indicates that institutions are not just reallocating assets but are uniformly reducing their risk exposure to crypto assets. On one hand, some funds choose to take profits after a short-term rise; on the other hand, uncertainty about subsequent macro and market conditions has increased, leading funds to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Capital outflows tend to create negative feedback with the market, where weakening prices further trigger redemptions, adding selling pressure to the market. However, a single or short-term outflow does not equal a trend reversal and may just be a phase of consolidation after the rise.
Going forward, the focus is on two points: whether capital outflows can quickly stop and return to inflows, and whether key price support levels hold. If outflows continue to expand, the short-term market will likely enter a period of volatile adjustment. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The two buy-in prices of 97,000 and 89,000 are both currently stuck.
According to the latest data from Glassnode, those who entered at the high points 1 to 2 years ago, as well as those who entered half a year ago, are all at a loss.
Simply put, the people who chased in during the 2025 surge are now selling the most aggressively every day.
On the contrary, those who bottomed out during the previous drop are holding steady and haven't moved much.
I used to be like this myself: afraid of missing out during the rise and rushing in, then unwilling to cut losses when it dropped, finally holding on until my mindset broke before exiting.
The lesson is that chips bought at the high points are hard to hold.
Given the current situation, there is indeed short-term selling pressure, but the bottom-fishers are not running, which indicates the bottom chips are relatively stable.
My attitude is more on the wait-and-see side, not in a hurry to buy.
Once those stuck at the high points have sold off enough, the selling pressure will naturally ease.
Let's first see if this data shrinks in the next few days; if it does, then we'll talk.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $ETH The non-farm payroll data unexpectedly cooled down the rate cut expectations, and the SEC's new custody regulations are paving the way for institutions to enter. BTC surged straight above 87,000, with shorts being completely liquidated. But don't rush to chase; the 85K resistance on TV is right ahead, and the short-term structure is consolidating. The liquidation map is even clearer: above 85K, there is massive short stop-loss liquidity stacked. The main force will likely first lure longs up to sweep out these shorts, then pull back to shake out the market. September security incidents also exploded: Bitget lost 380 million, Liquid Network had a 320 million vulnerability, the AI sector rose 54% in a single month outperforming the market, Robinhood launched AI agents and perpetual contracts in the UK, and the EU is still considering revising MiCA. Plenty of hot topics, but the market only follows liquidity.
Just replaced a voice-controlled light in corridor 3, back to watching.
BTC current price 84,616, bias is bullish but don't chase the highs. Wait for the 85K to 86K range; when the main force pulls up to sweep short liquidity, join a long wave with targets between 87,300 and 88,000. Set stop loss below 83,500; if broken, exit and don't hold hard. False breakouts are quite possible, enter with stop loss, and after sweeping liquidity, a pullback can happen anytime. This position is the dividing line between bulls and bears; only stand firm above 85K to look higher.
$BTC
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
@OKX星球 Nonfarm payrolls are just an appetizer; CPI is the main course
Last night, the nonfarm payrolls were released, and the market shook first out of respect. BTC hovered around 85,000, ETH fluctuated around 2,700. Many people focus on employment data to find direction, but on the Federal Reserve's menu, inflation is the main dish, employment is at best a side dish.
Last month's nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, the market dropped but then rebounded; when PCE cooled down, the market immediately took off. This shows employment is not the key, inflation is.
So tonight's nonfarm payrolls, don't panic if it beats expectations and the market drops—it could be a golden pit; if it falls short and the market rises, don't chase it, wait for the CPI to set the tone.
In terms of operations: BTC could move around 85,000, don't change your beliefs based on one data point. ETH will oscillate around 2,700, keep holding short positions and wait for CPI. Also hold long positions in Tesla and Google, fundamentals haven't deteriorated.
Remember: nonfarm payrolls are the appetizer, don't eat too much, the main course is still coming.
#10月加息预期回落，今晚PCE成关键
The above is for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.An interesting phenomenon appeared in today's market: despite the nonfarm payroll data falling far short of expectations, gold and Bitcoin instead experienced a downward trend.
The market's pricing focus has long since shifted away from simply watching the employment data itself and has switched to a whole new trading logic.
September added 29,000 jobs, far below expectations. Initially, short-term US Treasury yields quickly declined upon the data release, which was originally a positive signal for interest-free assets.
After the US stock market opened, the trend reversed, oil prices rebounded, and the market repriced inflation resilience, fiscal deficits, and long-term bond supply pressures. Long-term bond yields rebounded and rose, directly suppressing gold and BTC.
The market first traded on economic weakness, then fiscal and inflation risks became the main themes. It's not that the nonfarm payroll data is ineffective, but the upward force of long-term interest rates outweighed the positive impact of weaker employment. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 That night when crude oil and gold both plunged, I stared blankly at my positions for three seconds. Why, despite all the good news, was my account shrinking? That day, crude oil plummeted sharply, and the non-farm payroll data was weak. According to the usual script, precious metals should have been celebrating. Instead, gold and silver were hammered hard, while Federal Reserve officials kept hawkishly speaking nearby. The market seemed to have suddenly changed its mood, ignoring logic and only reacting emotionally. The most frustrating part of my review wasn’t getting the direction wrong, but mistiming the rhythm. The good news was priced in early, so when the data was released, it became an excuse to sell off. The most vulnerable aspect during such volatile phases is never the judgment, but the position size. Even if the direction is right, heavy positions and early entries can still get shaken out. From another perspective, this round of sell-off is also sending signals. Weakness in crude oil lowers inflation expectations, theoretically leaving room for rate cuts, which is a moderately bullish mid-term clue for risk assets. But in the short term, hawkish statements have pulled speculative funds out, the dollar strengthened, BTC and ETH came under pressure, altcoins even more so, with rebounds showing low volume and declines high volume, indicating a clear shift of capital preference toward defense. My own adjustment is to reduce leverage, split entries into several parts, and leave room to absorb emotional shocks. The bullish path still holds, provided inflation data continues to cool and officials soften their tone; the bearish risk lies in oil prices rebounding again and employment data improving, which would push rate cut expectations further back, causing another round of pain for precious metals and crypto. What you really need to watch isn’t a single piece of news, but who is being forced to sell during the volatile phase. That’s the short-term price driver. In this sharp plunge, were you shaken out, or justRon Baron heavily invested in Musk: the company holds about 83/17 in SpaceX and Tesla, respectively, and personally about 77/23.
SpaceX is the main position, aiming to capture the explosive potential of Starlink;
$xTSLA serves as a safety cushion, providing profit buffering.
The $SPCX strategy, which is extremely concentrated, yields high returns but is highly dependent on Musk, with significant volatility risk.The awesome big brother Maji has new moves again. No wonder he's the big brother.
Whale signals overlap with the market grinding! Big brother Maji holds over 100 million in main BTC‑ETH positions, while opening a new observation position near $1.7.
Latest on-chain monitoring:
Currently, BTC is stuck at 84,608, ETH holds steady at 2,676, with both major coins tugging back and forth near critical high points. There's no volume increase on the upside and support on the downside, a typical pre-event consolidation pattern; meanwhile, big brother Maji hasn't moved his core base positions despite market volatility.
- BTC｜390 coins, 40X long positions still held; before breaking the 84,791 resistance level, he chooses not to reduce positions or flee, maintaining a sufficient safety buffer before forced liquidation;
- ETH｜37,000 coins, 25X base positions remain unchanged; although multiple attempts above 2,684 were rejected, mid-to-long-term trend positions stay intact;
- While maintaining this nearly $132 million mainstream main position unchanged, he separately allocates funds to open a new leveraged independent position near $1.7, representing an extra speculative track expectation, not a shift of the main battlefield.
The market logic is clear now:
His strategy is "mainstream for base positions, themes for flexibility" — first betting on whether BTC‑ETH can break upward after this high-level consolidation, then using a smaller position to speculate on individual narratives for excess returns. It's the weekend now, $ETH $BTC have little liquidity, better not to open orders recklessly
It's just grinding for a long time, with only a tiny profit
Either your direction is wrong, hanging on the tree waiting for a long time to get out of the position
Yesterday ethBtc broke through the 5-day high but didn't hold, breaking through the previous week's 2800 again
This indicates 2800 can be a resistance point within this week
Yesterday's bullish news didn't meet expectations, so the market was pulled up early then dropped, trapping some longs before rising again
For the high short and low long strategy, stop loss must be set strictly at the two needles of previous highs and lows, absolutely do not use high leverage to gamble, the market won't trend unilaterally during consolidation
This way you pick up sesame seeds but lose watermelons
Currently, eth's spot price is 2680, neither high nor low
If you went long in the morning, you can wait for 2690; if you didn't get in, don't rush. If you see eth can't hold, 2700 can be a short entry with stop loss at 2715
If it holds and doesn't break 2700, be cautious, it may retest the previous high #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Brothers, BTC failed to break through 87,000 and dropped back to 84,500, ETH touched 2,777 then fell to 2,680. This market is a typical high-level shakeout!
1. News: Institutions' "dangerous game"
Strategy increased BTC holdings at an average price of 85,000, BitMine is aggressively buying ETH. Looks exciting? But Er Gou reminds everyone: these institutions are currently relying entirely on a "financing-increase" model! When the coin price rises, all is well; once the price drops sharply, financing becomes difficult, and this model will backfire. This is high-level leverage; retail investors must not blindly rush in just because "institutions are buying."
2. Technicals: Stuck in the middle, weakening momentum
Look at chart one and two, the 4-hour moving averages are all pressing overhead (BTC 84,500-85,000, ETH 2,675-2,698), SAR is also in a bearish arrangement. The only good news is RSI is in the neutral zone of 45-50, MACD green bars are shortening, indicating that bearish selling pressure has eased a lot, and bulls currently lack strength to counterattack.
3. Er Gou's view: Hold your hands, wait for direction
This pullback is a typical shakeout; now is neither a good time to bottom-fish nor a good point to short. The macro situation with the Middle East is still uncertain, and the main players won't easily push the market up.
Trading advice:
· Spot: Hold your base positions firmly, play dead and don't cut recklessly.
· Futures: Hold your hands! Until a clear stop-fall signal appears on the 4-hour chart, don't catch falling knives, beware of a double kill on longs and shorts.
$BTC $ETH Hello brothers and sisters.
BTC touched 87239 last night but was pushed back, not even brushing the previous high of 87374. This indicates a pile of sell orders above 87000, and the main force has no intention to push it up now.
Why? Above 87000 is all previous high trapped positions; the main force won't kindly push it up to help others get out. It must grind repeatedly between 84000-87000 to wash out the undecided chips before it can be pushed up later.
In the next few days, it will most likely be volatile. Don't chase above 87000; you can buy below 84000. Wait for a real volume breakout above the previous high of 87300 before chasing longs.
In a volatile range, the worst thing is to chase highs and sell lows. Control your hands and wait for signals.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $UNI
Leading BTC, is it enough to support an independent trend?
The 24-hour price range observed this morning was 8.58—9.311, with a trading volume of about 22.28 million USDT.
The morning window was positive while BTC was negative, indicating relative strength. However, if the lead quickly disappears, it may just be a short-term rotation.
I will watch whether the volume increases to break through 9.311 and then hold on a pullback; if this structure appears, it will increase the judgment for continuation. The downside risk is insufficient support and failed recovery; if it falls below 8.58 and the rebound cannot reclaim it, the judgment will be downgraded. The above boundaries come from the morning window, and subsequent market changes need to be rechecked.I really have to give it to myself… How on earth did I manage to hold this $ZEC short until now? Short entry: 822 Just now, I saw the chart hit 1,270 after falling all the way from 1,695. Others are making big profits. Me? I stubbornly held through nearly 500 points of counter-trend losses. 😭 Every night before sleeping, I keep asking myself: “What if it suddenly explodes upward tomorrow?” So many times I stared at the screen with my finger hovering over the close button. But I just couldn’t prA dormant ENA whale, inactive for over a year, transferred 30 million ENA (about $6.98 million) to Binance, still holding 157.55 million ENA untouched.😇
In my opinion, this move is like "cashing out first as a courtesy" — after lying dormant for over a year, the first action is to move tokens to the exchange, leaving the remaining holdings as spectators.
$BTC $ETH $ENAFor airdrops, first pick the confirmed ones; claim Pharos and Backpack if available. RateX has 42,000 addresses receiving tokens for free, which is currently the only Alpha not relying on faith.
Blast going to zero already indicates the problem; unissued token points are only worth touching if they have zero cost. SimpleChain testnet and D3 S0 mainnet tasks are low priority and pending. Kaito ambassador has a bit more weight; Bullpen, StandX, and xStocks should not occupy principal funds.
ETH current price is around 2685. The liquidation chart shows a massive accumulation of long liquidations between 2680 and 2700, which is a forced liquidation zone, not effective support. Price rebounds into this range easily trigger chain liquidations. MACD green bars are shortening, RSI is falling back from overbought, and the short-term upward structure is broken. My phone stand vibrated again; I ignored order reminders for now. Short positions are directly placed in the 2718 to 2730 range, with a defensive stop loss at 2765. If it breaks below 2630, the first take profit is at 2580, the second at 2520. If the 4-hour candle closes above 2765, short positions are unconditionally closed, and I will reverse to look near 2800.
$ETH
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
@OKX星球 🔥"Today I took three major coins to the gym, but after the workout, my body fat didn't change, and my mindset got injured first."
I got a "spot annual pass," took the three to train today, but the coach just shook his head after watching.
🟠 $BTC core training: $84,000 plank position, held for two hours without sagging. The coach said, "This guy's stability is amazing," I said, "Stable yes, but the circumference didn't increase after training." Then the coach added, "Getting rich isn't something you train for, it's something you wait for." I felt like pouring protein powder on its face.
🔵 $ETH chest press: $2,670, press once and it comes halfway back, press twice and the hands shake. The promised "full pump after upgrade" now feels like only the fingertips are engorged after training. The coach asked what happened, it said, "Strength was diverted to L2 to train legs, so the chest is left to rot first." After training, I took a mirror selfie, still the same body fat percentage, not even the shadow changed angle.
🟣 $SOL on the treadmill: level 119, running with a whoosh, odometer stuck firmly at 119. You might think it ran five kilometers, but looking down: 0.0 km, a player running wildly in place. Heart rate soared to 150, all calories burned dissipated on the chain, wallet didn't gain a gram. The most diligent and performance art-like gym member.
After training, the three sat in the rest area, I checked the training record: total displacement today ≈ 0, total heartbeat ≈ mine. Turns out sideways trading is the crypto world's cardio day, and all the sweat is from the watchers.The first time I bought crypto was last winter.
That day I worked late.
Came home and lay in bed scrolling on my phone.
Saw someone say $BTC can hedge against inflation.
I got impulsive and bought it.
After buying, I kept staring at the screen.
When it went up a bit, I smiled foolishly.
When it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless.
Later, I heard people say $ETH has a good ecosystem.
I moved some money into it.
But it just stayed flat.
So flat that I wanted to uninstall the app every day.
Then I saw $SOL rising sharply.
I couldn’t resist and chased it.
Right after I got in, it started to pull back.
I got stuck and even left the group chat.
Some in the group were shouting "take off."
Others were yelling "run fast."
I believed sometimes and panicked other times.
I also tried contracts.
Once I used leverage, my heart was pounding like a drum.
The night I got liquidated, I sat on the balcony to cool off.
Later, I slowly came to understand.
This thing can’t be how you live your life.
Now I only play with spare money.
Losing it won’t affect paying rent.
If I make a little, I withdraw it.
Buy some barbecue.
Or add something for the family.
If I get itchy hands, I just walk around downstairs.
When I get tired of walking, I don’t want to buy anymore.
When others show off profits, I just swipe away.
When others shout about 100x gains, I treat it like listening to a comedy show.
There’s too much noisy news.
Good news today, bad news tomorrow.
Anyway, the market has beaten me up.
Now I don’t watch the market every day.
Set a reminder and leave it there.
Being able to sleep peacefully is better than anything.
Everyone dreams of getting rich quick.
But you have to survive first.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t get carried away.
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
These words sound corny.
But they come from losses.
I still watch the market now.
Just for fun.
No longer fantasizing about turning it all around in one shot.
Take it slow.
Be steady. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 The GameFi sector is quite active today, and $SAND's rise looks very pleasing to the eye. We have to understand that when a hot topic drives the market, it comes on strong and fades fast. Many people can't help but rush in when they see a big surge, which often leads to catching the subsequent pullback after the spike.
$CT is a newly launched coin, so we can't be careless with it. New coins haven't settled their chips well, so volatility is common, and both profits and losses can be significant.
$ONE is just undergoing a minor recovery; there are many trapped chips piled up ahead, so it won't easily break free.
Offensive positions: SAND 0.0782, CT 0.5720, ONE 0.002410
Defensive positions: SAND 0.0615, CT 0.4560, ONE 0.001840
No matter how tempting the market looks, don't get overheated and go all in. Play with small positions to be safe. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Strength and Weakness Division in the Rebound Window
Market sentiment is warming up, but the pace of each asset is inconsistent.
$BEAT is a typical oversold recovery. After unlocking and landing in early October, supply pressure has not completely dissipated, but continuous burning provides support for the chip side. The key now is whether the rebound can bring volume: if volume increases and holds steady, the recovery is likely to continue; if volume shrinks while prices rise, it is not advisable to chase.
$BICO follows the market warming, liquidity improves after adding new trading support, but lacks strong catalysts, mostly capital returning. The previous drop was deep, so the rebound speed is naturally fast. The focus is whether the platform can be maintained after volume increases. If the platform holds, there is still room.
$HYPE has a more solid expectation side: European regulatory framework discussions, cross-chain expansion, AQAv2 yields used for buybacks all strengthen the narrative. But the previous gains were large, and the team's token OTC arrangements also need to be digested. Strong is strong, wait for a pullback to support, or follow after a volume breakout, do not chase the high positions aggressively.
$XRP's strong support comes from ETF capital inflows and institutional demand, and regulatory expectations are more stable than before. After a surge, it enters consolidation. As long as the platform is not broken by volume-driven declines, the structure remains; if capital continues to flow in, it can try the previous high again; if it breaks down, first watch for a pullback.
$SLX mainly depends on the progress of the Solstice ecosystem, which is flexible but chips are also easily loosened. The narrative of stablecoins and yield products remains, but it relies more on new funds. After consolidation, if volume increases again, recovery can be considered; if volume cannot keep up, do not chase, wait for a more stable pullback. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% A scenario to watch is the rotation of funds from $BTC to $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP. When BTC maintains an uptrend but with slowing momentum, investors may seek higher yields in altcoins. The 30-day ETF data shows net inflows of about $764.2M for $ETH, $248.3M for $SOL, and $111.1M for $XRP. Trading hypothesis: consider rotation valid only when altcoins rise with volume and BTC maintains its structure. If BTC breaks support, reduce altcoins first due to higher volatility risk. If the scenario fails, reduce positions, don't hold on.Capital flow does not always simultaneously move into $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP. A BTC session attracting funds while ETH and altcoins weaken indicates traders are prioritizing large assets. Conversely, when BTC moves sideways, ETH volume increases, and SOL and XRP break out together, the market may enter a risk rotation phase. Buy orders should wait for structural confirmation; sell orders should be based on broken support accompanied by volume. The Trump factor can cause volatility swings to change rapidly. Genuine capital flow needs to be verified over multiple sessions, Brothers, $BTC has been sideways for almost ten hours!
Bitcoin is currently around 84642, down 0.8%. The volatility looks small, but the moving averages on the 1-hour chart have completely converged.
Looking at the chart, MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA60 are all squeezed tightly between 84600 and 84750, with the price moving sideways along this cluster of moving averages. The upper boundary is formed by MA30 (85174) and the lower boundary by MA120 (84190).
This extremely convergent pattern indicates that bulls and bears have reached a temporary balance at this level, and the market is gearing up for a big move.
Focus on volume: recent candlesticks show a clear decline in trading volume, with no panic selling and no large capital entering to accumulate. This is a typical low-volume sideways consolidation.
This state usually means the market is building momentum for the next directional move.
Next, watch two key levels: to break the current stalemate, volume must increase and hold above 85000.
If it falls below the psychological support at 84000, there may be a need for a second bottom test.
In this low-volume, converged state, chasing breakouts or breakdowns is likely to backfire. It's safer to patiently wait for the market to choose its direction on its own. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The U.S. Department of Labor released the September nonfarm payroll data: only 29,000 new nonfarm jobs were added, significantly below market expectations (most forecasts were around 90,000), and the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% in August to 4.2%. At the same time, the Department of Labor revised down the nonfarm employment data for July and August by a total of 60,000 jobs. Coupled with a simultaneous slowdown in wage growth, the overall indication is that the U.S. labor market is cooling faster than previously anticipated by the market.
- The weaker employment data reduces market bets on further Federal Reserve rate hikes. U.S. Treasury prices rose and yields fell. As U.S. Treasuries serve as the global risk-free asset pricing benchmark, this indirectly lowers the interest rate pricing center for other sovereign debts worldwide, marginally easing the external debt interest payment pressure expectations for some high-risk countries.
Global asset allocation will readjust based on interest rate expectations: the market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates for a shorter period, and some funds allocated to U.S. Treasuries and dollar assets will reassess the attractiveness of emerging market assets; however, large-scale cross-border capital migration is a slow-moving variable. The monthly nonfarm payroll data mainly triggers short-term portfolio adjustments and is unlikely to cause sustained large-scale cross-border capital flows. Looking at account today, mixed feelings. BTC and SOL are working hard to help me recover, but the huge hole from ZEC is still eating up all the profits. This lesson is deep. $BTC (backbone) Avg entry 84044, latest 84550. Floating PnL 300.09U, return 11.96%. BTC still hope of whole village, steady. Defense line still around 78490, as long as it doesn't hit my trailing stop, I treat all fluctuations in between as shakeouts. Holding is key. $SOL (risk control highlight) Avg entry 117.41, latest 11$ETH continues to short! The smart money bulls are gradually withdrawing day by day!
Three days ago, there were 1,999 smart money bulls going long; today, only 1,732 remain, a decrease of 267. On average, nearly 90 exit each day. The long position size also dropped from 1.44 billion to 1.18 billion, with over 80 million U liquidity withdrawn daily on average.
The bulls who remain are also having a tough time. Three days ago, 77% were profitable; today, only 62% remain profitable.
The withdrawal is so rhythmic, indicating it’s not retail investors leaving emotionally, but large funds systematically reducing positions at high levels. The bulls are safely retreating step by step. I continue to be bearish and hold my short positions firmly!$ZEC is the wildest dark horse in this round of Uptober that I caught.
ZEC is now around $1400, with a market cap reaching $23 billion, squeezing into the top 15. It surged 186% in 90 days, climbing from the $120 bottom at the start of the year to a 52-week high of $1698, now slightly pulling back.
In the privacy coin sector, ZEC is the leader. Shielded transactions increased 15.5% month-over-month, showing real user activity rather than pure speculation. Grayscale's Zcash Trust opened a private placement to qualified investors; once the institutional channel opened, confidence rose, and the market cap soared from $700 million in early September to $2.3 billion. Monero in the same sector rose 13.6% weekly, Dash rose 61% weekly; the two privacy giants are driving the whole sector.
The zk-SNARK zero-knowledge proof technology suddenly became highly sought after in the era of CBDCs and increased surveillance. Naval's phrase "BTC is fiat insurance, ZEC is BTC insurance" went viral, and darknet-level privacy demand has been repriced. The Zcash Foundation also released an 18-month roadmap, with the NU7 upgrade plus ZSA assets, fundamentally catching up.
The EU's AMLR anti-money laundering new regulation will directly ban privacy coins by 2027; banks and service providers cannot touch ZEC or XMR, which is a sword hanging overhead. Now pulling back from $1698, $1200 is support, and $1100 is the bottom line.
ZEC is the wildest dark horse among the dark lines, driven by the privacy narrative and Grayscale Trust dual engines, but the EU ban is a ticking time bomb. At 7 o'clock, looking at the volume and capital flow of ETH separately — the US stock spot Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of about $17.3 million on 10/2 (mainly Fidelity FETH), totaling about $118 million outflow this week; on 10/1, there was also an outflow of over $55 million, continuing for several days.
Spot price is about 2682, still a bit weak compared to Shanghai's opening at 2697.5; intraday high touched 2704, low dropped to 2651. OKX 24-hour spot trading volume is about $380 million, with around 142,000 coins traded; weekend volume is generally low. Price is consolidating, capital is still flowing out, short-term focus is on whether 2680–2700 can be reclaimed; if it falls back to the daily low of 2651, don't try to hold hard. $BTC is hovering around 84,600.
$BTC $ETH #ETH #Ethereum #ETF #CapitalFlow #TradingVolume #DataAnalysis #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice, the market has risks, please be cautious when entering.🚩Hello, friends, I am Chao Ge🤝
Guys, the core reason for the overall drop in the crypto market is the collision of three forces: macro, geopolitical, and capital flows.
📉 On the macro side, the 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.29%, making risk-free returns too high and draining market liquidity. Coupled with Iran causing trouble in the Strait of Hormuz, risk aversion sentiment has intensified, causing Bitcoin's market cap to fluctuate wildly by 50 billion in one day.
🏦 On the capital side, ETF buying has cooled off. BTC ETF ended a streak of 9 consecutive days of net inflows and turned to an outflow of 148 million; ETH ETF also saw an outflow of 59.6 million. Early big buyers have retreated, naturally putting price under pressure.
🧨 On leverage, the rapid decline triggered a chain of liquidations, with 563 million USD liquidated across the network in 24 hours, and over 109,000 people forced out. ZEC led the decline with a 21% drop due to capital flight and hacker rumors, dragging down overall sentiment.
💎 In summary, until US Treasury yields fall back and ETF funds resume steady inflows, the overall market pressure pattern is hard to change. Hold your hands, wait for the wind.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
$BTC $ETH $ZEC "One trade doubled, two trades cut losses: A night of 100x leverage"
Green毛 pulled the account back that night by going long on $BTC. Entered at 84679.5, exited at 86349.8, about 1670 points of space; 100x leverage, 3.89 BTC, finally credited 6287.13 USDT, a return of +190.83%. But the other two trades were bleeding: $ETH long average price 2702.85, but liquidated at 2687.77, 80 contracts, 100x, lost 1327.69 USDT, -61.40%, held from 01:37 to 05:43; BTC short opened at 84491.7, closed at 84666.1, from 05:53 to 06:02, 5 contracts lost 1085.29 USDT, -25.69%.
Total account earned 6287, lost about 2412, seemingly "big wins, small losses." But with 100x leverage throughout, exposure was huge, one wrong judgment could backfire.
Green毛's style is aggressive enough, and the outcome lucky enough. Watching is fine, copying is not—this is not a strategy, it's walking a tightrope.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Nonfarm payrolls missed expectations, yet gold and BTC fell? The market is trading the second layer of logic
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, and the previous value was revised down. Logically, weak employment → lower rate hike expectations → US Treasury yields fall → gold and BTC should rise. When the data first came out, it indeed moved that way, with yields quickly dropping.
But once the US stock market opened, the tone changed. Yields reversed and went up, putting pressure on gold and BTC.
Why? The market shifted from "interest rate expectation trading" to "inflation/term premium trading."
First layer: Poor nonfarm payrolls lead to lower short-term rate expectations and falling yields. This is the intuitive reaction.
Second layer: Poor employment ≠ long-term yields necessarily falling. Crude oil strengthened again, fiscal deficit concerns rose, the market worries that inflation won't come down in the long term, demanding a higher term premium. So long-term US Treasuries were sold off, and yields rose. Interest-free assets naturally came under pressure.
So tonight's market action doesn't mean nonfarm payrolls are useless; it means the market is looking further ahead. The short end trades rate cuts, the long end trades inflation and fiscal issues. With these two forces opposing, prices get twisted.
Next, watch crude oil, long-term yields, and the US dollar. BTC holding 85000 and ETH holding 2650 means this layer of logic is digested. Don't be fooled by the first layer, and don't be scared by the second layer.
$BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% "Nonfarm Payrolls Didn't Surge to 90,000, The Problem Lies in the Unemployment Rate"
Last night, nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000. Once the data was released, many people shouted that BTC would surge to 90,000. But it didn't. Why? Because the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
The poor job additions initially made the market think that rate hike expectations would cool down, which is positive. But what does a rising unemployment rate mean? Ordinary people lose jobs, incomes drop, and consumption power falls. The economy cools down too quickly, and recession worries outweigh the benefits of rate cuts. So BTC hit 87,200 and then braked, not daring to continue.
Now we just wait to see which way BTC breaks. If it goes up, with volume holding above 87,000, altcoins will follow, and the bull market will start; if it goes down, breaking below 84,000, a correction begins, with a 10% bottom.
The data already gives a dovish bias direction, but the market hasn't chosen a side yet. Don't rush to bet; wait for a breakout signal. Follow up if it goes up, withdraw if it goes down, and watch if it oscillates in the middle. The unemployment rate is a number worth watching more than new job additions.
$BTC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% The early stage of a bull market is like a spring flood: the water is loud, the current is fast, and the river looks chaotic. But $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $ZEC, and $UNI are more like stones beneath the riverbed than waves on the surface. Waves can break. The stones remain. Step 1: Keep the ballast.
Don’t recklessly move your core holdings. One of the most painful things in an early bull market isn’t the pullback—it’s selling during the pullback and watching the market recover without you. Step 2: Cast$SOL /USDT SITS 4.0% BELOW ITS 124.96 HIGH AFTER A 30D GAIN OF +15.09%. Yet 7D reads -1.46%. I notice strength on the longer window and hesitation on the shorter one. I keep that gap in view before reading anything into one candle.
Which window deserves more weight here?
#SOLRallyGainsSupport 🚨 ZEC Market Update | ZEC MARKET UPDATE
ZEC has recently pulled back from the $1,698 peak, entering a short-term high volatility correction phase.
ZEC has pulled back sharply from the $1.7K area, while leverage is being flushed from the market.
Meanwhile, THORChain’s ZEC liquidity pool is now live, adding a new liquidity venue — although early liquidity remains shallow.
📌 $1.30K = key area to watch
📌 $1.40K = reclaim level for momentum
Correction or accumulation? 👀
#ZEC #Zcash #Crypto #AltcoinsRevisiting Dongguan, I found old photos from Yufeng Hairdressing School.
In 2011, I left the factory with 8,000 yuan to learn a skill and build a future. From factories and construction sites to trading, I’ve been through it all—including several liquidations.
Those grassroots struggles shaped my left-side trading style. No shortcuts—just patience, discipline, and respect for market cycles.
$BTC $ETH
@大皇子小号
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows #G7OilReserveRelease $ETH $BTC Yesterday on October 2nd at 20:30, the non-farm payrolls were released with no clear positive or negative impact, yet the price plummeted drastically. The drop didn't break the major support below. This scene feels familiar; the staked ETH is being redeemed. I saw this post somewhere and it feels like a smokescreen. My inner thoughts are more certain now: this is a classic dump to buy the dip, more like a spot market double shakeout. According to the usual pattern, $ETH's price will surge to 3500-4000 following this adjustment. The current panic seems more like a carefully crafted smokescreen. The price of $ETH $BTC shouldn't be just this low; with doubled liquidity, the price should rally again.Nvidia surged to a market cap of 5.7 trillion, while Bitcoin is stuck at 85,000; one is skyrocketing, the other consolidating. They seem like two parallel lines, but at the core, they are accelerating toward convergence.
Key figures: Nvidia touched $237.88 intraday, just a step away from a 6 trillion market cap. Bitcoin rose slightly by 0.64% in 24 hours, reaching a high of 87,000 intraday before pulling back. On the surface, they diverge, but beneath, currents are stirring.
The real link is the migration of computing power. After the halving, mining profits have been continuously squeezed, prompting mining companies to shift their electricity and data center resources toward AI. HIVE Digital signed a $350 million five-year AI cloud agreement in one go, deploying 2,016 Blackwell Ultra GPUs, with an annual recurring revenue of about $70 million. IREN is more direct, reaching a strategic cooperation on 5GW-level AI infrastructure with Nvidia, which obtained a five-year subscription right to buy up to 30 million shares at $70 each, a potential investment of $2.1 billion.
On-chain signals are also worth pondering: in the past two weeks, exchanges have seen a net outflow of about 50,000 $BTC, accounting for about 2% of total balances, indicating chips are continuously leaving the market. However, the Fear and Greed Index fell from 72 to 67; the market remains in the "greed" zone, but sentiment has begun to loosen.
In summary: Nvidia is selling AI computing power expectations, while Bitcoin is about miners pivoting and chip locking. The true overlap lies in electricity, data centers, and GPU utilization. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%