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It turns out that Trump, Musk, and Justin Sun are all alumni of the University of Pennsylvania.
Trump graduated from Wharton in 1968.
Musk graduated from Penn in 1997, earning degrees in both Physics and Wharton.
Justin Sun later also became a Penn alumnus. (Wharton Magazine)
The three were not classmates but seem like wealth samples from three different eras:
🏙️ Trump: Real Estate → Capital → Politics
🚀 Musk: Internet → Technology → AI/Space
₿ Justin Sun: Internet → Blockchain → Digital Assets
The most interesting part is Justin Sun's early concept of the "Path to Wealth Freedom Revolution"
Trump hit the real estate and branding era;
Musk bet on the internet, energy, space, and AI;
Justin Sun entered blockchain and digital assets.
So you realize—
True wealth leaps often come not from working harder than others, but from entering new value networks earlier than others.
And today, these three paths have intersected in reality.
In 2025, Justin Sun became one of the key participants in the Trump family’s crypto project World Liberty Financial and attended Trump-related crypto events. (Reuters)
Three Penn alumni from different generations,
took three different paths but all chased the wealth opportunities brought by changing times.
Wealth does not always belong to the hardest workers,
but continuously flows to those who understand the changes of the times!Last night's trend, frankly, was a pump driven by the non-farm payrolls, followed by a quick sell-off. The data was indeed poor, with 29,000 compared to the expected 90,000, and the previous value was revised down. Logically, this should be positive for the crypto space, so BTC surged from 83,884 directly to 87,238. But the problem was the rise was too fast, and no one was there to follow through. There were a bunch of sell orders around 87,300; once it hit that level, it was pushed back down, then gradually slid back to around 84,600, basically giving back all the gains.
Looking at the 15-minute chart now, the price is stuck at 84,600, with the MA200 above at 84,939 and the MA120 at 85,156. Short-term moving averages are all pressing down, making the rebound difficult. The MACD is hugging the zero line, RSI has dropped from a high to 60, and volume has shrunk. This indicates the bulls are weak, the bears aren't aggressively selling either—it's just low-volume consolidation.
More importantly, there's no money. The news in the chart also mentioned that stablecoin market cap has shrunk by 14 billion since May, liquidity is poor. Existing funds are battling it out; macro positives can only cause brief spikes, unable to sustain a rally.
Next, watch two levels: above 85,150—if it can't hold there, it's still weak; below 83,884—if it breaks this level, the data-driven rally was in vain, and it may continue to seek support lower. 84,000 is the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears, so don't rush to chase.
In summary, the non-farm payrolls positive has already been priced in. Now it's back to reality: no money, no volume, no direction, with a weak consolidation bias. Manage your positions and wait for volume to pick up before choosing a direction. This is my personal view, not advice. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC Reviewing the operations over the past few days, the biggest problem was indecisive stop-losses, which turned small losses into big ones. Currently BTC is at 84590.7, resistance at 85000, support at 84000. I've replanned: light long position near 84100, open position with 5000U, stop-loss at 83900, target 84800, strictly follow the plan, no holding losing positions without stop-loss. Recovering from a 200,000U loss, this time I must control my actions and stick to the plan. $BTC #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $XAUT
Can a safe-haven tag replace supporting evidence?
The 24-hour price range observed this morning was 4132.1–4221.6, with a trading volume of approximately 19.03 million USDT.
The morning price was close to the lower end of the range. The asset narrative cannot guarantee an increase in every window; the current structure still requires observation to see if the price gains support.
I will watch to see if volume increases to break above 4221.6 and then retests and holds; if this structure appears, it will increase the judgment for continuation. The opposing risk is insufficient support and failed rebound; if it falls below 4132.1 and the pullback cannot recover, the judgment will be downgraded. The above boundaries come from the morning window; subsequent market changes need to be re-verified.🚨 The crypto world's "CRS" is here: CARF officially launched
Starting January 1, 2026, the first batch of countries and regions committed to CARF have begun collecting tax identities and transaction data of exchange users, with the first cross-border automatic exchange in 2027.
📌 Key facts:
· First batch of exchanges in 2027: UK, EU, Japan, Cayman Islands, and about 48 jurisdictions
· Second batch in 2028: Hong Kong, Singapore, UAE, etc.
· USA in 2029
⚠️ Attention Mainland China users:
Mainland China is currently not on the CARF commitment list, so the claim that "Binance directly reports your withdrawals to domestic tax authorities" is not accurate for now. But three things to be clear about:
1️⃣ Withdrawals to bank cards can already be traced through fund flows
2️⃣ Overseas financial accounts are already being exchanged through CRS
3️⃣ The commitment list is continuously expanding, and transparency will only increase
Don't blindly believe "exchanges overseas are safe"; compliance planning should be done early. The hemostatic clamp has been removed, but the problem on the operating table was never the $3.8 million blood loss; it was why the vessel wall ruptured precisely at that location.
NEAR Intents announced a full recovery of all funds and the conclusion of the investigation. From an emergency perspective, this is a standard "bleeding controlled, vital signs temporarily stable." The team identified and contacted the responsible party within 24 hours. That layer of intelligent security acted as an intraoperative rapid ultrasound—it found the breach before the blood had filled the chest cavity. But note the surgeon's wording: the problem lies in the way Omni's deposit and withdrawal infrastructure "interacts" with the smart contracts. This is not myocardial necrosis itself; it is the anastomosis—the junction between two pipelines that should be tightly aligned—where tissue misalignment occurred.
Clinically, what we fear most is never massive hemorrhage but rather seepage. Massive hemorrhage triggers alarms, seepage only slowly lowers blood pressure. The real lesion is that the interface between the deposit/withdrawal channel and the contract is a stress point under long-term pressure. Suturing it today does not mean it won't tear again at the same spot tomorrow. The main heart is unaffected—the underlying mainnet is not impacted, just like the left ventricle functions normally and the problem is only in a small branch of the peripheral vessels. But any experienced surgeon knows: repeated peripheral embolism will eventually cause thrombotic load reflux to the pulmonary artery, leading to systemic hypoperfusion.
Now look at another operating table. Targets like $xEWY behave more like a vein repeatedly punctured—the response to local infection is often delayed and excessive. The immune system may trigger a systemic inflammatory response from a small-scale debridement or mistakenly judge the infection source eradicated after successful hemostasis. The focus should be on blood gases and lactate, not the fluctuating curve on the monitor. What truly determines prognosis is whether perfusion pressure can be maintained, not how many milliliters drain out of the bottle on a given day.
The technical highlight of this case is worth noting: locking down the responsible party within 24 hours shows a clear reconnaissance path and a sufficiently high tourniquet; the intelligent protective layer functions like preoperative angiography, first mapping the malformed vessel's course before deciding where to cut. This is a beautiful surgical strategy. But case closure does not equal recovery; tissue remodeling takes time, and scars may be pulled again within three months. The medical record never writes the truth; the truth hides in the overlooked nighttime vital signs at the next shift handover.
And right now, I only care about one thing: whether that anastomosis was reinforced a second time. #nearfundsrecovered 2746 ZEC were transferred into the privacy pool, can't we just find the hacker's address and freeze it?The initial pawn sacrifice is meant to make the opponent think you miscalculated. The moment the September non-farm payrolls were released, the 10-year yield slid to 5.15, and the whole market thought the bears had cashed in their first move. But the closing game record tells a different story: the 2-year yield stopped at a little 4.82, the 10-year yield pinned at 5.28, the 30-year yield pressed at 5.63, several key squares reversed the previous day's pawn line.
This is not a piece exchange; it is a lure before the decisive kill.
The short end obeys employment—that is just a local tactical exchange; the long end watches energy, inflation, fiscal policy, and debt—that is the entire pawn chain structure. Tactics can be repeated, but once the structure is pinned, the next dozens of moves must revolve around it. I've sat before the board for thirty years; what I fear most is never the opponent sacrificing the queen for an attack, but that he pins the position into a weak square I cannot escape. Today's long end is that weak square—the rate cut expectation is at most a first move, the deficit is the permanent lone pawn. A lone pawn does not disappear by itself; it only drags all your rooks, knights, and bishops into defensive positions.
$xTSM and similar US stock token targets hang on the edge of the board, seemingly independent, but in fact tightly restrained by the big diagonal line of US Treasury bonds. When the midline moves, the edge line trembles. The so-called linkage is not price synchronization but sharing the same king.
Most people only count the gains and losses of each immediate move—that is just watching chess. A true grandmaster sees the decisive square in the endgame from the opening. The short end is conceding; the long end is declaring war.
The winning move in this game has never been about how many rate cuts occur, but about who first cannot hold that lone pawn no one is willing to sacrifice. #treasuryyieldsrebound A load-bearing wall was chiseled open and patched within 24 hours — this is not repair, this is structural self-healing.
NEAR Intents recovered the full $3.8 million; the crack at the Omni deposit-withdrawal channel and smart contract interface is a typical case of node instability. Anyone in our field knows: a building never collapses because the facade looks bad, but because a beam was missed in the blueprint handover. The problem is not with the main structure; the framework of the NEAR mainnet building remains intact. What moved was the weld joint of the corridor connecting the podium and the main building. This kind of localized failure is the most dangerous but also the easiest to fix — provided you know where the crack is.
Let me break it down like reviewing blueprints. First, the attack surface is concentrated on the interaction logic between the deposit-withdrawal channel and the contract, which is a typical secondary structure, not the foundation. Second, locking down the responsible party within 24 hours shows their structural monitoring system is active, not just checking surveillance after the building cracks. Third, the SHIELD AI security layer was called out, which is like adding a seismic joint on the blueprint — not decoration, but an energy-dissipating component. When a real earthquake hits, the ones that fall are rigid bodies without flexible connections.
But I have to say something that might make many uncomfortable. Recovering funds is damage control, not reinforcement. A project's risk resistance is never judged by how fast it patches a hole, but by why the hole was made in the first place. If you miss drawing a shear wall in the blueprint stage, you have to risk your life to fill it during construction. The fact that Omni's interaction layer had this vulnerability shows that the module joints are still in the "experience-based construction" phase, not "calculation-based construction." The difference between these two is like that between a suburban villa and a super high-rise.
Now look at the target stuck on my desk, XIBM. Imagine it as a commercial building relying on someone else's land — tokenized assets of US stocks are essentially an addition built on the foundation of traditional finance. What is the biggest fear in additions? The main structure settling. When on-chain security incidents happen frequently, the trust anchor of tokenized stocks starts to loosen because their only load-bearing walls are "custodian credit" and "bridge stability," and their own concrete grade is not high. NEAR patched quickly this time, but it exposed an industry-wide issue: everyone is making beautiful curtain walls, but very few put real effort into the pile foundation.
I respect Illia Polosukhin. Finding the responsible party within 24 hours means he has a complete construction log and accountability chain, which is rare in the crypto world. Most projects, when problems occur, can't even produce as-built drawings and can only draw renderings over ruins. But respect aside, architectural issues won't disappear just because one person is reliable. The stronger the composability of smart contracts, the greater the implicit load. Today you can recover $3.8 million because the pool is small, the path is short, and the counterparty can't escape. When the scale reaches tens of billions, the recovery window will be measured in minutes, and then it depends on preemptive defenses, not post-incident recovery.
My assessment of this building is: the diseased part has been completely removed, the main structure is intact, but the corridor's construction method must be redrawn. The SHIELD AI security layer is a bonus, but it’s more like a safety helmet, not a substitute for rebar. What truly determines whether this building can stand for fifty years is the connection node standards at the Omni layer, the depth of audit penetration, and the team's respect for the basic construction discipline of "least privilege."
The biggest problem in the crypto industry now is that everyone wants to be at the tower's peak, but no one wants to squat down and drive piles. The deeper the piles, the taller the building can be. NEAR patched the hole, but across the entire site, how many corridors are still hanging by the same careless welding? No one knows.
Structures don't lie. Blueprints don't lie. The only liars are those unwilling to build foundations. #nearfundsrecoveredYesterday's non-farm payroll data came out showing positive signals for the crypto market, but I have been watching a choppy market. The later market makers did not disappoint me, causing me to lose 1000 points. News always serves the market trend and is just a tool to hunt retail traders.
After liquidating the short positions above, $BTC formed a small double top. A short-term correction is likely to continue. Focus on the support between 80,000 and 82,000; this situation may require several more weeks to adjust. For $ETH, watch the area around 2560 to 2610. If it holds support, there could be further gains. The market will become more complex from here, and it will come down to skill and temperament—who can outthink the other.
So, what positions are you guys holding now? $FIL Why do funds prioritize AR over FIL in this round?
1. Tokenomics gap: AR has a hard cap of 66 million, with one-time payment for permanent storage, resulting in token lock-up; FIL has a total supply of 2 billion, with continuous miner rewards released, causing persistent long-term selling pressure and massive historical trapped positions to face in every rally.
2. Narrative difference: AR focuses on permanent storage + AO computing, perfectly fitting the AI Agent permanent memory narrative, a simple story that funds are willing to buy into; FIL is a leased decentralized cloud storage with complex staking, proof-of-spacetime, and storage contract logic, making it costly for ordinary investors to understand.
3. Chip flexibility: AR has a small circulating supply, making it easier to pump; FIL has heavy historical trapped positions, with layered selling pressure during price increases.
It's not that FIL lacks fundamental benefits, but bull market funds prefer simple, scarce, and flexible targets. FIL is more suitable for long-term base holdings with slow growth, making it hard to take off quickly like AR.The first time I bought crypto was while waiting in line at a barbershop.
The guy next to me said he exchanged $BTC for an electric bike.
I felt intrigued.
Went home and downloaded the app.
Registered and linked my card until midnight.
My fingers were stiff placing my first order.
After buying, I stared at the screen.
When it went up a bit, I smiled foolishly.
When it dropped a bit, I cursed myself for being reckless.
Later, $ETH seemed more stable.
I moved some money into it.
But it just stayed flat.
So flat that I wanted to uninstall every day.
Then $SOL surged hard.
I couldn’t resist chasing it.
It pulled back right after I got in.
I was stuck and even muted the group chat.
Some in the group shouted "take off."
Others shouted "run fast."
I was sometimes hopeful, sometimes panicked.
I also tried contracts.
Leverage made my heart race like a drum.
The night I got liquidated, I sat on the balcony to cool off.
Later, I slowly understood.
This thing can’t be how you live your life.
Now I only use spare money.
Losing it doesn’t affect paying rent.
If I make a little, I withdraw it.
Buy some barbecue.
Or add something for the family.
If I feel itchy, I walk around downstairs.
When tired of walking, I don’t want to buy anymore.
Others show off profits, I just swipe away.
Others shout for hundredfold gains, I treat it like listening to a comedy show.
Too much noisy news.
Good news today, bad news tomorrow.
Anyway, the market has taken its toll on me.
Now I don’t watch the market every day.
Set a reminder and leave it there.
Being able to sleep soundly is better than anything.
Everyone dreams of getting rich quick.
But you have to survive first.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t get carried away.
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
These words sound corny.
But they come from losses.
I still watch the market now.
Just for fun.
No longer fantasizing about a big turnaround.
Take it slow.
Be steady. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 VanEck: Bitcoin Is in the Early Stage of a Bull Market, Long-Term Target Aligns with Gold Market Cap
Veteran asset manager VanEck's latest view: Bitcoin is currently in the early phase of a bull market, with a mid-to-long-term target of matching gold's market capitalization. Institutional estimates suggest that if BTC's market cap reaches half that of gold, the corresponding price would be around $500,000; under more distant assumptions, the price could even challenge $3 million. The core logic is that Bitcoin's scarcity attribute is gradually being recognized by global capital, spot ETFs continue to bring institutional inflows, and the correlation between BTC and gold has reached multi-year highs.
Personal View
As the pioneer of gold ETFs, VanEck's valuation logic of benchmarking against gold essentially defines BTC as the new generation of digital value reserve asset. This long-term narrative is persuasive; as institutional allocation channels open up, Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative asset but is gradually gaining entry as a major asset class.
However, it is crucial to distinguish between the long-term vision and short-term market conditions. Benchmarking gold's market cap is a projection over decades, not a goal achievable in one or two years. The most challenging aspect of the early bull market is repeated volatile shakeouts; it will not rise in a straight line. U.S. Treasury yields, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies remain the biggest macro constraints. In a high interest rate environment, the market can experience deep corrections at any time.
In terms of strategy, this view is suitable as a long-term reference for spot holdings and should never be used as a basis for leveraged contract longs. Do not increase leverage or heavy positions just because of institutional long-term targets. Contracts must strictly control leverage and set stop losses. Going forward, key observations should focus on ETF capital flows and changes in long-term U.S. Treasury yields.LangLang｜October 2 Trading Review
Today I only did one thing:
$LTC contract, +51U
I originally thought about holding a bit longer, but the market moved faster than I expected—just as I took profit, it surged afterward.
It’s not false to say I regret it.
But after calming down and thinking:
Taking profit early is better than holding through.
The biggest taboo in short-term trading is:
Being dissatisfied with a small gain;
Missing out and chasing;
Getting trapped after chasing;
Then hoping for a rebound after being stuck.
A small profit at the end can turn into a big loss.
So I chose to take this 51U today.
---
What’s more worth noting is today’s market situation.
BTC and ETH continue to fluctuate under the influence of macro data and capital flow changes, with clear swings between bullish and bearish sentiment.
Non-farm payroll data, ETF capital movements, combined with geopolitical situations, make the short-term market prone to sudden spikes and quick pullbacks.
In this environment, I actually don’t want to guess tops and bottoms every day.
Trade less when you don’t understand, act when you do.
Trading doesn’t have to make money every day.
What really matters is:
Capital remains intact;
Position size is controllable;
Plans are not disrupted;
Emotions are under control.
As for $SOL, I will continue to observe the long-term logic.
Short-term you can miss out on gains,
but truly worthy opportunities won’t disappear because of one missed trade.
Today +51U, done for the day.
Continuing tomorrow.
$BTC $SOL $LTC $BTC holders who bought the top are selling.
The 1–2 year cohort around $97K and 6–12 month cohort around $89K are underwater.
Those who bought the 2025 rally are selling the most, while buyers of the decline are holding.#G7OilReserveRelease #USNFPDataCools I #BTCETHETFOutflows $BTC &$ETH $ETH
ETH/BTC Breaks Long-Term Downtrend: Altseason Awaits BTC Confirmation
ETH/BTC has broken above a nearly five-year downtrend, marking a major technical signal for this cycle.
But altcoins usually need BTC to lead first. If BTC holds above $87K and breaks higher, capital could increasingly flow into altcoins.
If BTC remains stuck between $83K–$85K, the altcoin market may stay limited.
#USNFPDataCools #BTCETHETFOutflows $ZEC is around $1,315, up 1%, with $43.67M displayed volume. I’m watching $1,300–1,310 as the key support zone after the recent weakness. If price holds there and reclaims $1,325 with stronger volume, I’d consider a long. Entry: $1,305–1,325. SL: $1,275. TP1: $1,350, TP2: $1,390, TP3: $1,440, TP4: $1,500. R:R can reach around 1:5+. If $1,275 breaks and price accepts below it, I’m out. I don’t want to chase the bounce; the reclaim needs to show that buyers are taking back control first.ETH Liquidation Pressure:
Focus on $2,554.97 below and $2,816.5 above
Coin World data: ETH current price is approximately $2,682.38.
If the price drops about 4.75% to around $2,554.97,
some high-leverage longs may
face concentrated liquidation; if the price rises about 5% to
around $2,816.5, some high-leverage shorts may face concentrated liquidation.
Currently, the liquidation zone below is closer to the current price, meaning if the price moves downward, long liquidation pressure may appear earlier.
Other areas to watch: below $2,481.2, $2,326.96; above $2,910.38, $2,977.44.
The above levels are estimated based on public market prices and changes in open interest contracts, and do not represent guaranteed price targets or predictions of rise or fall.
Down 2.17% compared to the snapshot with the same criteria 24 hours ago.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Free RPC does not charge you a subscription fee, but it may still collect your on-chain intentions.
When a wallet sends balance queries, contract calls, and pending broadcast transactions to an RPC, the service provider can see the IP, access time, address combinations, and usage habits. Even though most of this data is already publicly available on-chain, linking network identities with multiple addresses still expands privacy exposure. Free RPCs may also impose rate limits, delays, or deny service to certain regions, and users only realize their dependency on these entry points at critical moments. Improvement methods include running your own node, switching between multiple providers, using privacy networks, or having wallets reduce unnecessary queries, but each solution comes with speed and maintenance costs. For $ETH users, privacy issues occur not only after transactions are on-chain but also during the process of querying the network. If the wallet interface only shows "Connected" without specifying who the requests are sent to, users cannot assess where their data flows. Free infrastructure does not mean there is no cost; the cost may be availability and behavioral profiling.
Privacy protection cannot rely solely on service providers' promises not to log data; it also requires reducing the information they can technically correlate. Request aggregation, address isolation, and local verification can all reduce exposure. Switching providers should also avoid querying all addresses at once.Andrew Tate recently transferred about 21,000 HYPE tokens to Cex, which corresponded to approximately 1.87 million USD at the market price at that time. On-chain records show that these tokens originated from a position established about 22 months ago: he bought around 123,000 tokens at an average price of about 4.48 USD, with a cost roughly 550,000 USD. Currently, the address still holds about 64,000 tokens, valued at approximately 5.62 million USD; according to Lookonchain statistics, the related position has accumulated unrealized gains of about 7.24 million USD, with a return rate of about 1317%.
It should be noted that transferring to an exchange only represents moving assets from an on-chain wallet to a centralized platform and does not mean they have been sold. HYPE is the native Layer 1 token of Hyperliquid, a chain focused on on-chain perpetual and spot trading, with uses including staking, governance, and paying network fees. Public information shows that Tate has experienced multiple liquidations when trading leveraged contracts on Hyperliquid in the past, but this spot holding is recorded separately from contract losses.$BTC – H4 | Personal perspective
After sweeping the liquidity at the sideways bottom and creating a bullish MSS, BTC continued to push up, sweeping the 87,400 peak with a wick before being pushed back to 84,500, making the next trend not yet very clear.
Scenario to follow:
• Only look for BUY orders on smaller timeframes when the H4 candle closes with a body clearly above 87,400 (confirming continuation of bullish BMS).
• If the peak is not broken, continue to stay out and observe, avoid guessing tops and bottoms.
⚠️ Note: Liquidity is thin at the weekend, prices can easily have strong wick sweeps. Risk management should be strict.$OKB is around $120.12 and down 0.62%, with $6.31M shown volume. I’m watching $119–120 as the key decision area. If price sweeps below $119, reclaims $121 and volume improves, I’d consider a reversal long. Entry: $119.50–121.00. SL: $117.50. TP1: $123, TP2: $125, TP3: $128, TP4: $132. R:R can reach roughly 1:5. If $117.50 breaks and price accepts below it, I’m out. I’m not trying to catch weakness blindly. The reclaim and volume response need to show that sellers are losing control first.Recently, the money flowing into ETFs has clearly cooled off compared to a few days ago. BTC hasn't really fled yet; on September 30th, there was a net outflow of $148.7 million, but fortunately, the following two days saw inflows of $102.7 million and $31.7 million respectively, which helped recover some of the funds. The problem is, compared to the previous week when billions, even close to $1 billion, were rushing in daily, things are obviously much calmer now.
ETH is worse off, with net outflows for three consecutive days: $59.6 million, $55.4 million, and $17.3 million, totaling $132.3 million. Earlier, ETH ETFs were continuously attracting funds, but suddenly these days there’s been a steady withdrawal, so short-term caution is definitely warranted.
So BTC is now hovering around 84,000–85,000. I won’t be rushing to buy at the slightest dip. Previously, whales reduced their BTC holdings by 30,000 coins in a week, and now ETF funds are starting to hesitate; pushing straight past 87,000 isn’t feeling so comfortable.
I still want to wait around 82,500–83,000. If it really drops to that level, and whales start buying again and ETF funds ramp up inflows, I’d be very happy to step in.
The feeling I get from the current market is: the money hasn’t completely fled, but everyone has damn well started to hold back a bit. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Hyperliquid address starting with 0x936c remains the main holder on the short side of the $PONS perpetual contract.
According to on-chain monitoring, this address currently holds about 14.85 million PONS short positions, with 2x leverage, and a nominal position value of approximately 6.26 million USD; based on the current price, the cumulative unrealized profit is about 2.12 million USD, with a position return rate of about 50.6%.
Today, this address continued to increase its short position, adding about 1.09 million PONS short contracts. During the same period, the PONS perpetual contract mark price was about 0.42 USD, with a 24-hour decline of about 21.3%. Position and profit/loss data come from on-chain monitoring snapshots and will change in real time with price and position adjustments.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Made 78,000 U in 30 days, but in just a few days, I painfully gave back 54,000.
It's not that ZEC is that scary.
What really upset me was that I started to lose control myself.
Looking back at my operations these past few days, it was like a "reverse lesson":
When I was bullish and just opened a long, ZEC immediately plunged;
I painfully cut my long to prepare for a short, but the price started to range and grind;
Couldn't hold the short, just closed it, and the market suddenly surged;
🚀 Seeing the surge, I chased longs again, only to buy at the highest emotional point.
The whole sequence:
Longs got hit, shorts got ground down, closed shorts missed the move, chasing longs got trapped.
In the end, it wasn't the market that took away the 78,000 U.
It was myself repeatedly not following the plan, handing the profits back.
The biggest lesson these days is just one sentence:
When making money, it's easiest to overestimate your own level.
After consecutive wins, it's easy to develop an illusion—
"This time I must be right."
So positions that should have waited were entered early;
Stop-loss points that should have been respected were fantasized about rebounds;
No trading opportunities were forced into trades.
This is the most dangerous place.
ZEC just magnified my problems.
So this time I won't review "whether to go long or short next";
I'll only review one thing:
When did I stop following my own rules.
78,000 U can be earned back,
But once trading discipline breaks, no amount of profit can be kept.
Time to pause. AAVE at $180, are you chasing it?
The governance proposal aims to transfer all trademarks and IP to the DAO, and Aavenomics 3.0 is still evaluating a permanent burn mechanism—once the news broke, AAVE surged from 159 to 187 in two days, an 18% spike. But just now, it dropped back to 180, with contract volume approaching $1.1 billion. Is this a real narrative upgrade or just a sell-off after a squeeze?
Let's look at the surface: good news landed, but the price retraced.
On October 2, it peaked at 187.5, today it dropped to a low of 176, now hovering around 180 with repeated friction. The daily RSI is 72, overbought; ADX is 41, trend still intact; after the 4-hour peak, it formed a flag pattern and pulled back. The candlesticks tell you: 175-176 is the first daily support, 170 is the starting zone, all technical indicators say one thing: the trend is unbroken, but don’t chase recklessly in the middle.
First thing: what rose this time wasn’t the price, but "ownership."
On October 2, Aave Labs dropped a bombshell: establishing a Cayman memberless foundation to transfer trademarks, domains, and protocol IP all under the DAO’s name.
Don’t get it? Let me translate:
Previously, AAVE token holders were just "users," now they become "shareholders." Who owns the trademark, who holds the IP, and whether it can be sold will be decided by token holders. The foundation has no voting or veto rights; board appointments and charter amendments remain with the DAO.
What level of event is this?
This is the first time in DeFi history that a leading protocol truly returns legal ownership of core assets to its token holders. Plus, Stani simultaneously mentioned the Aavenomics 3.0 permanent burn mechanism—if implemented, it would be a nuclear-level upgrade to the supply narrative.
But remember one thing:
The current burn is only an "expectation," not a "fact." Expectations can pump or dump the price.
Second thing: the protocol itself is stronger than you think.
Don’t just focus on the governance proposal; AAVE’s fundamentals are the real trump card:
V4 deposits surpassed $1 billion for the first time, active loans at $310 million
Newly launched on Arc, Base live, Coinbase tokenized stocks can be used as collateral via Equities Hub
Officially released MCP service, AI agents can directly read the protocol
Ongoing buybacks: DAO annual budget $50 million, weekly buys between $250k and $1.75 million
Circulating supply 15.4 million, total supply 16 million, market cap $2.5-2.8 billion. Still far from the all-time high of 660, a huge gap remains.
In plain terms:
AAVE is not a meme; it’s the "central bank" of DeFi. You can’t avoid it when depositing, borrowing, or liquidating. Such a protocol, when it dips, someone buys; when it rises, no one wants to sell.
Third thing: there’s a technical warning signal to watch.
From October 1-2, it rose from 159 to 187, an 18% gain, but contract volume and short liquidations were high, futures volume once near $1.1 billion.
The good news is real, but part of the rise was squeezed out.
That’s why it’s normal to fail above 187 and fall back to 180. Daily RSI 72 is overbought, 15-minute RSI back to 52, short-term bulls are resting. Structurally, this is the first decent pullback after the main rise; 180 is right in the middle of the retracement—risk/reward is average, not the best entry point.
Key levels to note:
Resistance: 183-185 → 187.5-188 → 196 → 200 (sentiment threshold)
Support: 176-175 → 170 (starting zone) → 162
A daily close below 175 is just weakening; a confirmed break below 170 means a "deeper correction."
Bull vs. bear, judge for yourself:
On one side:
IP ownership to DAO proposal, DeFi’s first ownership revolution
Aavenomics 3.0 burn mechanism on the way
V4 deposits over $1 billion, Base/Arc/Coinbase collateral fully rolled out
$50 million annual buyback supporting the floor
Clearly stronger than BTC, event-driven independent rally
On the other side:
Daily RSI 72 overbought, 18% rise in two days needs digestion
Squeeze above 187 has inflated gains
BTC stuck in 83,000-87,200 range, October 14 inflation data is a hard test
If governance vote fails or terms change drastically, narrative will be revalued immediately
Trading strategy (no nonsense):
Focus on structure, not calls. Single trade risk within 1% of account; AAVE daily volatility $8-10 is normal.
Buy on pullback (more aligned with daily):
Don’t chase at 180. Prefer to wait for a long lower shadow or 4-hour recovery at 176-175, then scale in, stop loss below 172. First target 185, if it holds, look at 187.5/196. Only consider breakout if volume surges and closes above 188, stop loss below 183, target 196-200.
Short-term short (only on resistance):
If rebound to 185-188 shows volume upper wick and 4-hour fails to recover, light short, stop loss above 190, target 176/175. Don’t guess tops around 180; RSI overbought can dull further.
Invalidation:
Daily close below 175 without recovery, exit longs, watch 170/162. If BTC breaks below 83,100 effectively, AAVE’s relative strength will be suppressed, reduce leverage.
AAVE now is like UNI in 2020—
Everyone thought "governance tokens are useless," then DeFi Summer came and it took off.
AAVE at 180, you think it’s risen too much.
When it returns to 660, will you regret not even daring to buy the 175 pullback?
What you lack is not opportunity, but the patience to hold the opportunity. $BTC $ETH $AAVE #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% I also tried this scroll. When they distributed the airdrop, it was really lacking vision, just a tiny bit. Far inferior to arb, zksync, StarkNet, of course related to the Chinese team.
Projects by Chinese teams generally speak with facts, tend to be stingy, and also like to PUA. The price of scroll's token has also plummeted, but of course, all L2 tokens have done the same, with prices continuously falling.
The once so popular L2 narrative has now returned to dust and soil. In the crypto world, there is no eternal narrative except for Bitcoin and Ethereum.The strength of $WLD is undeniable, but mistaking overheating for safety is often when emotions are at their most expensive.
Breaking down this market move into a conditional test:
Directional evidence: Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are biased strong, with RSI reaching 79 and 61 respectively. The strength hasn't disappeared, but the sentiment is already crowded; at this point, what's truly important is not guessing the peak, but seeing if the high-level support can quickly recover any pullback.
Position evidence: Current price is 0.596, about 11.54% away from the 1-hour support at 0.5272, and about 2.05% from resistance at 0.6082. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
The next step is not about guessing. My observation line is clear: standing back above and holding 0.6082 means regaining short-term initiative; breaking below 0.5272 means shifting focus to the 4-hour support at 0.4771. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.6082 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
I don’t only share when my judgments are correct. How the price chooses between 0.6082 and 0.5272 next, I will continue to publicly review in the next round.
Do you see a high RSI as proof of strength or a risk warning?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.$ETH is around $2,682, up 0.52%, with $382.94M displayed volume. I’m watching $2,650–2,680 as the support area. If price sweeps that zone, reclaims $2,700 and volume expands, I’d consider a long. Entry: $2,670–2,705. SL: $2,625. TP1: $2,750, TP2: $2,800, TP3: $2,860, TP4: $2,940. R:R can reach roughly 1:5+. If $2,625 breaks, the setup is invalid. The current green move isn’t enough for me; I want the pullback to hold and buyers to prove they’re defending the level.The first time I bought crypto was the winter before last.
On my way home from work, a colleague told me $BTC had risen.
I went home and downloaded an app.
I struggled with registration and verification until midnight.
After buying, my palms were sweaty.
Later, $ETH was quite lively.
I also invested a bit.
But it stayed sideways so long I wanted to delete the app.
Then $SOL surged fiercely.
I couldn’t resist chasing in.
Right after entering, it corrected.
I got stuck and even left the group chat.
During that time, I checked the market while eating.
I also sneaked peeks at work.
When I lost, I added positions.
The more I added, the more I lost.
I cut losses.
Right after cutting, it went up.
I was so mad I slammed the table.
I also tried contracts.
Leverage made my heart race ridiculously fast.
The night I got liquidated, I sat on the balcony and blew the wind.
Later, I slowly figured it out.
This thing can’t be a way of life.
Now I only use spare money.
Losing it doesn’t affect paying rent.
If I make some profit, I withdraw it.
Buy a barbecue.
Or add something for the family.
If I get itchy hands, I just walk around downstairs.
When tired of walking, I don’t want to buy anymore.
When others show off profits, I just swipe away.
When others shout about hundredfold gains, I treat it like listening to a comedy show.
There’s too much noisy news.
Good news today, bad news tomorrow.
Anyway, the market has beaten me up.
Now I don’t watch the market every day.
I set a reminder and leave it there.
Being able to sleep soundly is better than anything.
Everyone dreams of getting rich quick.
But you have to survive first.
Don’t borrow money.
Don’t get carried away.
Don’t believe in guaranteed profits.
These words sound corny.
But they come from losses.
I still watch the market now.
Just for fun.
No longer fantasizing about turning it all around in one shot.
Take it slow.
Be steady. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 The market pulled back, but the two altcoin long positions still held their profits. Here's the latest account status for everyone.
PEPE 20x full position long, holding 1 billion tokens, average entry price 0.0000040921, current unrealized profit 18,831U, return rate 87.32%. MEME coin is known for extreme volatility; with 20x leverage and a maintenance margin rate of only 2.00%, a quick plunge can easily wipe out profits instantly.
NEAR also has a 20x full position long, holding 100,000 tokens, average price 4.5690, now unrealized profit 19,391U, return 80.81%. Compared to the previous cycle, the unrealized profit has shrunk, with a maintenance margin of 2.25%, leaving a thin safety buffer.
Many people envy these nearly doubled returns but overlook the cost behind them. With 20x full position, the explosive gains come when the market moves favorably, but once it reverses, the speed of drawdown can catch you off guard.
Altcoin markets are inherently highly volatile; unrealized profits on paper are not realized gains. The more profitable you are, the more cautious you must be, always ready to reduce positions and hedge risks. The market never favors one position forever.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
#BTC, ETH spot ETFs simultaneously saw outflows, cooling capital heat
#US-Iran tensions continue, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves $BTC fell back to the 84,000 to 85,000 range after a false breakout, showing a weak rebound with shrinking trading volume. This small range still needs to consolidate with some more oscillation.
The rebound at the green line is relatively strong, the mid-term average cost support remains, and the overall outlook is still bullish. Attention should be paid to the breakout situation at the upper and lower bounds of the oscillation range. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 What's going on today??? Damn, what the hell is this? Damn it!
Have you noticed $ETH is stuck grinding back and forth in a range? The bulls are still there, but it just can't break through the 2700 barrier!
Small position real trading rolling strategy
Currently holding a long position in $ETH, floating profit around 14.76%, held for quite a while, riding the roller coaster repeatedly.
On the daily chart, it doesn't look weak yet, support below is solid, but selling pressure keeps coming nonstop. Every attempt to push up gets knocked back. 2768.55 is a short-term strong resistance level; if it can't break through, it will continue to consolidate sideways, wearing down patience.
The overall market BTC hasn't given a clear direction either, mainstream coins are all tied up, ETH can't break out into an independent trend.
At this position, both bulls and bears are uncomfortable; chasing longs risks getting crushed, shorting risks a sudden explosive rally.
My thinking is to only get bullish if it holds above 2710; if it repeatedly fails and breaks below 2640, then reduce positions to hedge, no stubborn holding. Don't get greedy with higher leverage during high-level sideways consolidation; the frequent spikes can easily wash you out.
#ETH high-level range consolidation #Mainstream coins waiting for the market to choose direction
$BTC $ETH"A Century-Old Bank Chooses SOL, Ethereum is Upgrading Its Underlying Layer"
A century-old state bank did not choose a private chain or a consortium chain; it directly adopted Solana. The North Dakota bank, established in 1919, connects over 90 financial institutions through Fiserv and launched Roughrider Coin. This is not a pilot but an official deployment.
Institutions are voting with real money. SOL spot ETF net inflow reached $188 million in a single week, setting a record; Forward Industries increased its holdings by nearly 950,000 SOL in Q4, totaling 8.5 million SOL. SOL is currently trading around 122.
Meanwhile, Ethereum is quietly reconstructing its underlying layer. The Glamsterdam upgrade is scheduled to activate on October 6 at 13:53:36 UTC on the Sepolia testnet, introducing ePBS, block-level access lists, and gas repricing. In plain terms: block building and validation are separated, making transaction costs more reasonable. Note, this is on the testnet, not the mainnet; Hoodi and mainnet dates are yet to be determined.
Strategy:
SOL around 122. State bank adoption + record ETF inflows strengthen institutional narrative. A pullback to 115–118 without breaking indicates buying interest remains; breaking below 110 signals profit-taking after good news.
ETH around 2700. Testnet activation is a definite catalyst, but avoid chasing the price spike at the news release. Support lies at 2600–2650; holding this range keeps expectations intact; breaking below 2550 means upgrade pricing is already priced in.
$BTC $ETH At the moment of the LINK pullback, let's talk about the fundamental reasons why I hold it long-term.
Many people ask me why I can hold LINK for so long during this round of the market without being shaken out by the volatility.
Putting aside short-term K-line fluctuations, its fundamental core lies in the irreplaceability of the oracle sector. A large amount of on-chain smart contract data retrieval depends on Chainlink's external data sources. It is a solid infrastructure in the decentralized world, and ecosystem implementation continues to advance.
This round of rise benefits on one hand from the overall market liquidity recovery, with capital beginning to allocate to underlying infrastructure tokens; on the other hand, the market is revaluing projects with real-world implementation, no longer merely speculating on short-term hype narratives.
Currently, the price has pulled back from the high point, with short-term resistance near 14.5 and primary support at 13.5. My ability to hold long-term is not blind stubbornness but based on understanding the sector's value in advance and setting my own trading framework, not changing my mindset arbitrarily due to daily price swings. Short-term trading captures volatility, long-term holding earns industry growth dividends. With a clear mindset, holding positions naturally becomes calm.$ETH
The largest floating profit long position on Hyperliquid is held by a smart money, valued at 81.96 million USD, with an opening price of 2134.
ETH current price is 2683, down 2 points intraday, but the big funds are still holding the floating profit.
Bias is bullish; you can follow if it holds the 2600 support on pullback, but exit if it breaks 2550.
$ETH This market pullback has directly amplified the pressure on small-cap coins. Let me show you the latest unrealized losses on these two long positions.
SNDK 4x full position long, holding 30 coins, average price 1773.08, currently an unrealized loss of 1674U, a drawdown of 12.98%, maintaining a margin rate of 2.50%. The position is not heavy, considered a small trial position.
HYPE is clearly under increased pressure, 7000 coins 4x full position long, average holding price 94.084, now unrealized loss has expanded to 43159U, a drawdown of 28.02%. The previous paper loss has deepened further. Although 4x leverage is not high, under full position mode, continuous slow decline still keeps squeezing the safety cushion.
Many traders only focus on profitable trades but rarely face the torment of expanding unrealized losses. The market will not always follow your predictions. Once the trend reverses, the losses on trapped positions will only grow larger.
Holding a position is not about stubbornly gambling; you must set a mental bottom line. The market’s decline has no clear bottom. Even with low leverage, the risk of full position is not to be underestimated. A fundamental lesson in trading is learning to accept losses and knowing when to exit.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 On the surface, everything is rising, but derivatives are not so easy. This weekend's move— is it a correction or the prelude to the next squeeze? I watched the market for a while on Saturday night; BTC hovered around 86,868, and the NFP shock pushed it to the doorstep of 87K. Spot looks stable, but contracts tell a different story: weekend liquidity is thin, so even a small buy order can lift the price nicely, but as long as 87K doesn't hold, leveraged longs' stop losses will fall like dominoes. If the funding rate continues to be positive, it means more people are chasing longs; this structure fears a sudden spike after a prolonged sideways move. OKB is at 122.66, moving slower than BTC but not falling behind. Its problem is not direction but rhythm— as long as 122 holds, the path to 142 remains, but if it breaks, the previously positioned funds are likely to withdraw first. ZEC bounced back from 1,388 but is still capped below 1,400. 1,500 is the real threshold; before passing it, this move looks more like short covering rather than new money entering. RE is at 0.5066, dropping 1.31% while the market rises. This divergence deserves attention; 0.50 is its psychological defense line, and if it doesn't hold, the probability of weak coins being drained when risk appetite recovers will increase. My current feeling is: the underlying structure of this rebound is not strong. The bullish path is clear— BTC holds above 87K, weekend thin liquidity pushes the price toward 90K, and once sentiment warms, altcoins will follow The money from $BTC ETF has almost stopped coming this week.
From September 28 to October 2, the US spot BTC ETF only had a net inflow of $82.9 million; the previous week was $2.39 billion, a 97% drop in one week. $ETH is even worse, with a net outflow of $118 million. $SOL also shrank from $188 million to only $800,000.
But BTC was still around 84,600 on the weekend, and intraday on Friday it surged past 87,200.
Money is retreating, but the price hasn't fallen — this means the selling pressure has also withdrawn. Institutional holdings that can withstand this year's major pullback won't leave without making enough profit.
Don't take this as good news: last week's $2.39 billion was a one-time buy from portfolio rebalancing. Whether it can continue depends on the daily net inflows. Friday's IBIT data is not fully out yet; the real judge will be the daily flows in the first three trading days of next week — if positive inflows can't hold, above 86,000 is a buying vacuum.Nonfarm payroll data exploded. Only 29,000 jobs were added in September, while the market expected 85,000, nearly three times the difference. Even worse, the previous two months were revised down by a total of 60,000, with July directly turning into a decrease of 10,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, hourly wages increased by only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, all signaling a cooling down.
The market reaction was very direct: the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 24% before the data to below 18%, and the 2-year US Treasury yield once plunged 10 basis points. Jefferson and Williams hinted a few days ago that there was no rush, and this data essentially confirmed their stance. But the bond market then made a V-shaped reversal, with the 10-year yield pulling back above 5.30% by midday—the short end is trading "no rate hike," while the long end is still worried about inflation and fiscal deficits.
$BTC leveraged this momentum to surge above 87,000, rising about 2% in 24 hours, with shorts getting liquidated again. The logic is simple: rate hike pressure is temporarily eased, so liquidity-sensitive assets can breathe a sigh of relief. But don’t celebrate too early; the long-end US Treasuries are still hanging above 5%, and the October CPI is the real hurdle. Nonfarm payrolls saved the short term but not the long end.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC is around $84,633, barely green, with $548.94M displayed volume. I’m watching $84,300–84,500 as the first decision zone. If price holds there and reclaims $84,900 with stronger volume, I’d consider a long. Entry: $84,400–84,900. SL: $83,900. TP1: $85,400, TP2: $86,000, TP3: $86,700, TP4: $87,500. R:R can reach around 1:5. If $83,900 breaks and holds below, I’m out. I don’t want to chase a flat move; I need the reclaim to confirm buyers.The market experienced a round of pullback, and account profits shrank accordingly. Here's a look at the real-time position changes.
BTC 50x full position long, holding 140 coins, average price 82869.3. Current floating profit is 241095U, return rate 99.90%. Compared to the previous market cycle, some profit has already been given back. Key to note is the maintenance margin rate is only 1%, with a liquidation price of 77815.6. With 50x full position, profits look substantial, but the margin for error is extremely small. If the market continues to drop rapidly, liquidation is very likely.
Small position SKHY 7x full position long, holding 600 coins, slight floating profit of 1422U, return 8.53%. As a small altcoin test position, volatility is relatively mild.
Many only see the floating profit numbers but overlook the high risk hanging overhead. Under high leverage, profits are just temporarily stored numbers on paper; a market correction can wipe out most of the gains.
Do not blindly expand positions when the trend is favorable; always watch the liquidation line and prepare to reduce positions. In the leveraged market, protecting your position is far more important than short-term floating profits.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 After the non-farm payrolls release, the market was first impulsive, then calm. Expectations for the Fed to continue tightening in October cooled down, U.S. Treasury yields fell, which should have been positive for risk assets, but instead they surged then retreated.
$BTC: Immediately pulled up to 87,238 after the data, but there was no follow-through at the high level, then it fell back near 85,000, and today it is testing 84,000 again. The core issue now is not how fast the rebound is, but whether 85,000 can be reclaimed and held. If it can't hold, the strength is just an illusion.
$ETH: Touched around 2,750 intraday, overall still following the upward trend. 2,700 is the short-term lifeline; if it holds, capital diffusion still has potential and catch-up gains are still expected; if it breaks, weakness will spread.
$ZEC: While BTC and ETH stirred by the non-farm volatility, ZEC continues to retreat. On October 2, it fell from above 1,400 to around 1,280, about -4% intraday, with a clear weekly pullback. This indicates that the previously high-profit chips are still exiting.
BTC sets the direction, ETH tests diffusion, ZEC shows whether profit-taking is clearing. Without resonance among the three, the rebound will struggle to go far.【ETH Intraday Analysis｜October 3】
ETH is currently trading around $2,682, down about 1.6% in 24 hours, with an intraday volatility of 4.5%. The highest reached 2,769 and the lowest dipped to 2,651, showing an overall pattern of rising then falling, with weak oscillation.
Technical aspect: Intraday consolidation around 2,685, MACD histogram turning from red to green, fast and slow lines forming a death cross, indicating weak short-term momentum; the 5/10-day moving averages are flat around 2,684–2,687 and suppressing the price, with volume shrinking compared to the previous day, showing insufficient bullish support.
Capital aspect: The contract long-short account ratio is about 2.9, retail longs still appear crowded; perpetual funding rate is only 0.000185%, leverage sentiment tends to be neutral. The liquidation map shows a dense liquidation zone between 2,533–2,555 below, and a resistance zone between 2,815–2,819 above.
Key levels: Support below at 2,651 and 2,600; a decisive break below will open downside space; resistance above at 2,700 and 2,769, a rebound requires volume and a stable break above.
Operation tips: It is recommended to observe with a light position, strictly stop loss if support breaks, consider following on the right side after stabilizing above 2,700, and avoid holding positions with high leverage. Crypto assets are highly volatile, pay attention to position management. Not bragging today, just showing everyone some fun, and by the way, checking out my "Cyber Emergency Room." The account is currently in an extremely magical "fire and ice duality": two are crazily buying, one is crazily selling.
$ZEC (the biggest fun in the whole scene)
Average holding price 1403, latest price 1315.
Unrealized loss 64.41U, return rate -132.30%! Liquidation price "--".
Yes, you read that right, the loss rate has hit -132%. This position has long fallen below the margin, now like a bottomless pit, crazily sucking the blood of BTC and SOL.
$SOL (the lifesaver of the whole scene)
Average holding price 117.41, latest price 119.35.
Unrealized profit 70.73U, return rate 32.51%.
When the full position was struggling underwater, I used isolated margin to open this SOL to test the waters. Now it's good, it not only earned 32% itself, but the profit just fills the hole left by ZEC.
$BTC (the honest backbone)
Average holding price 84044, latest price 84527.
Unrealized profit 286.91U, return rate 11.44%.
BTC is always the most reliable honest one. No matter how ZEC acts up, BTC is still silently stabilizing the market, defense line at 78239. As long as it doesn't break, I have the confidence to watch the show.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 From "Blockbuster ETF" to "Source of Selling Pressure": ZCSH Weekly Outflow of $93.56 Million, Small-Cap ETFs Begin to Test Supply and Demand Resilience
Grayscale's ZCSH, as the first U.S. spot ETF for Zcash, experienced a brief blockbuster run after listing, but saw a weekly net outflow of $93.56 million, with assets under management falling from a peak of about $979 million down to approximately $751 million. For ZEC, the real focus is not the ETF's "star status" itself, but that it has become an unavoidable supply and demand variable. Analyzing capital flows, share splits, fee structures, circulating supply, and price mechanisms explains why small-cap coin ETFs can act as amplifiers of price increases but also become sources of rapid selling pressure during redemptions.
ZCSH's transition from a blockbuster launch to a large weekly redemption reflects not just fund capital changes but the typical risks of small-cap coin ETFs: in markets with limited supply and insufficient depth, ETFs can amplify upward moves but also become sources of rapid selling pressure during redemptions.
What truly matters is not whether ZCSH was once popular, but whether it can regain stable capital inflows and whether ZEC's price can form a bottom under redemption pressure. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
On the dollar side, the signals of strength and weakness have actually already been given. After the dollar index has risen for four consecutive days, it is now around 101.8, and U.S. Treasury yields are also at a five-year high. If the nonfarm payrolls really come in above 90,000, the dollar and Treasury yields will most likely push higher, and liquidity in crypto will take a hit first.
Once rate hike expectations ease, the dollar will give back gains, and crypto will see a short-term rebound, but how far this rebound can go depends on whether the market treats it as a "breather" or a "turning point." Bank of America has already warned that the 162,000 figure in August likely had seasonal inflation, and September may see a reverse correction.
$BTC is still in the 82,000 to 85,000 range in the short term, with the upper side from 85,000 to 87,000 being the area repeatedly pushed back in this round, and the lower side from 81,000 to 83,000 being the area recently repeatedly supported. Until volume picks up, direction won't emerge.
$ETH continues to follow the big market, with 2,650 to 2,750 as its activity range; independent moves basically have no room ahead of the nonfarm data.
$SOL has gone the farthest in this recent wave, moving from around 116 up to above 123, but after the surge it failed to hold, now back around 119. Below, 116 to 120 is the area repeatedly tested and defended these days; above, 123 to 126 is the next threshold.
Before the data comes out, just hold light positions and wait. Direction is given by the data, not guessed.Brothers, daily mainstream altcoin quick report
$XRP $1.482 | $SOL $119.2 | $DOGE $0.0927
The three major altcoins collectively pulled back today, XRP down about 3%, SOL lost 120, DOGE fell below the key level of 0.093.
XRP bulls were liquidated, SOL momentum dropped to zero, DOGE broke the lifeline
XRP fell 4.24% within 4 hours, triggering about $11.07 million in long liquidations. Currently near the $1.48 pivot point, selling pressure surged above $1.55. ETF funds are also retreating, with a net outflow of $3.28 million from XRP spot ETFs on October 2, with only Bitwise products seeing outflows.
SOL retreated from the high of 123, MACD histogram dropped to zero, bullish momentum exhausted. The active buy-sell ratio is 0.6519, sellers crushing buyers 3:2, open contracts decreased by 3%. 65% of retail investors and 66.5% of top traders are long, but no one is truly buying.
DOGE fell below $0.093, monthly RSI dropped to a 13-year low. 78.1% of top traders are long, 72.8% of retail investors are long, but the active buy-sell ratio is only 0.80, with sell orders crushing buy orders at 31.5 million vs. 25.3 million. Bulls are crowded, spot distribution ongoing, $0.10 is a strong resistance, $0.08 is the lower Bollinger band.
Discuss in the comments, which of these three do you least favor?👇
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Brothers, shorting $ZEC this round was the right call, ZEC is completely done for!
Looking at the chart, ZEC is currently at 1,421.73, I opened a short at 1,643.78, floating profit 40.53%. Also shorted SOL at 120.94, current price 118.26, floating profit 6.64%, both positions are profiting.
Why do I say $ZEC is completely done? Just look at the long-short ratio — 93% longs vs 7% shorts, retail investors are crazily chasing longs, if the whales don’t dump on you, who else will? The previous rise to 1,660 was all built on leverage, contract trading volume is more than ten times the spot volume, without new funds entering, prices pushed up by leverage will eventually have to come down. That’s how these pump-and-dump coins work: they make you doubt your life when pumping, and when dumping, you won’t have time to escape.
Looking at the broader market, BTC is stuck around 83,000, ETH tried three times to break 2,750 but failed, funds are withdrawing, no one is catching the top, so it can only fall. Technically, ZEC’s MACD shows a high-level death cross, RSI is dropping from the overbought zone, volume keeps shrinking, a classic crash pattern.
I only do short-term trades, take a wave and run, will consider scaling out of shorts near 1,350.
$BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Looking at the rhythm during this period, it's very simple,
$BTC and $ETH continue to hold their base positions without moving,
$ZEC added a watch position,
waiting for the daily candle close to see if the 1233 level can hold.
Seize the opportunity to make a move.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备