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I’m not worried at all about this round of Dogecoin correction; my long-term bullish view remains unchanged.
It fell from 0.098 down to around 0.081, dropping over 11% in 7 days. It’s normal to feel uneasy when your account numbers shrink. But when analyzing the market, you can’t just look at red and green. Today, the 1-hour candlestick stopped falling at 0.08108, the price bounced back above 0.084, and turned green again intraday. Buyers have been steadily absorbing sell orders at the lows. This kind of volume-shrinking dip followed by stabilization often signals a completed shakeout rather than a trend reversal.
I’m optimistic about $DOGE and never base my view on a single candlestick. Its consensus, community, and payment use cases have been built up bit by bit over more than a decade; they won’t disappear just because of a week’s correction. The 90-day cycle is still showing positive returns, indicating the medium-term foundation remains intact. Market articles are already discussing the golden cross and the $0.10 mark; sentiment hasn’t dissipated, and capital hasn’t fled.
This brief pullback washes out the weak hands and leaves the true believers. I’ve experienced deeper drawdowns than this, and every time in hindsight, it was a window to buy in or add to positions. Hold on; don’t let momentary volatility make decisions for you. $0.10 is not the end, just the next stop.Morning.
$ETH bounced back from 2406 to 2479 this morning, up 1.8%, a breather after two days of decline.
But don’t get too happy yet, it’s already down 8% over 7 days, dropping from the high of 2778, with a max drop of nearly 370 bucks. MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above; one bullish candle doesn’t mean a reversal.
$BTC is similar, yesterday it touched a low of 82163, now hovering around 83000.
There’s a big event today—22,000 BTC options expiring, with a notional value of 2.16 billion dollars, and ETH has 123,000 contracts. Days like this are usually turbulent, either a dump then a pump to harvest, or a direct pump to blow out shorts.
A brother in the group had a 2600 ETH short, didn’t exit at 2406, now back at 2480 and floating at a loss.
He said he’ll wait until tomorrow, won’t close unless it drops below 2400.
What do you think, will today’s settlement dump first then pump, or just pump straight up???This wave of movement fully fulfilled the previous prediction, with the price dipping to the 80400 support before rebounding, currently at 81786. On the 4-hour chart, the MA5 has already flattened, indicating a brief release of short-term bearish pressure, but MA10 and MA20 still press from above, so the overall trend remains weak. The volume of this rebound is not particularly strong; it is a corrective rebound after a decline, not a reversal.
80400 is the current core support, and the first resistance above is the MA10 at 82485.
Here's a question for you: If the price rushes to 82485 but the volume can't keep up, what is most likely to happen? $BTC Right now, the market situation is that those who are long dare not be too long, and those who are short dare not be too short.
In just two days, the second largest coin dropped more than 10 points, and altcoins also plummeted simultaneously.
But my feeling is that this is a big shakeout before a rally. It looks fierce, but the volume hasn't dropped much.
In this market, most people use high leverage and trade frequently and quickly. At the same time, most are not high V. The high interest and funding rates brought by high leverage are enough to wipe out 90% of traders. During the process of frequent short-term trades, the volatility of chosen coins' swings causes stop losses and forced liquidations.
This market never lacks opportunities. Buying well is a skill, position control is the profit point, and holding on to sell well is the realization of gains.
I often make the above mistakes myself. Respect to myself, and encouragement to all. 80351 This low point is not the bottom
After $BTC dropped to 80351, there was a wave of concentrated position reductions.
New entrants tend to mistake the spike as a bottom signal.
Where did this money come from:
At the moment of the spike, leveraged positions were forcibly sold by the system.
Sell orders piled up, and the price was instantly hammered down.
How is this number calculated:
80351 is the lowest transaction price caused by the spike.
No one actively bottomed at this price level.
Who is connected:
After the forced liquidations exited, selling pressure decreased.
Stop-loss orders hanging in that range have already been swept away.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC Stop guessing blindly, the root cause of this $BTC $ETH drop is not the Federal Reserve at all.
From 87,000 down to 81,000, it looks like a macro bearish pullback, but in essence, it's a precise chopping of retail traders.
The market is flooded with four bearish factors: US Treasury yields breaking 5.25%, BTC ETF outflows for six consecutive weeks, crude oil surging to 107, and capital diversion in the AI sector.
Each factor alone makes sense, but these bearish factors have long been present in the market and are not new news. Why did the sharp drop only concentrate around the 87,000 level? Simply put, this price level was suitable for action.
Look at two very unusual sets of data:
First, in the three days before the crash at 87,000, long positions rapidly accumulated in the 85,000–87,000 range, with many retail traders opening 3 to 5 times leverage longs.
Second, in the 48 hours after the drop, whale wallets aggressively bought between 81,000 and 82,000, accumulating about 12,000 BTC, worth nearly 1 billion USD.
In short: the main players smashed the market near 87,000 to create panic, blew up leveraged positions around 82,000, forcing retail traders to cut losses, then quietly collected these sold chips at 81,000.
This is not a natural market downturn; it is a typical harvesting move.
As long as there are enough leveraged longs piled up at the top, the cost of smashing the market is far lower than the cost of accumulating at the bottom. Those holding spot and long positions are making profits and are reluctant to exit, believing it will behave like previous times by dipping into the red before rallying, thinking it won't fall further. How did the macro trio (crude oil, US-Iran, gold) transmit to last night's BTC?
Crude Oil (Oil) and US-Iran Talks: The "Master Switch" of Inflation Expectations
What happened: The US-Iran talks continue to negotiate over the Strait of Hormuz passage rights, enriched uranium, and ceasefire conditions. When the market fluctuated between "progress in talks" and "deadlock in talks," crude oil prices experienced violent swings.
Crude oil surged, raising inflation expectations, increasing the probability that the Fed will maintain high interest rates or even pause rate cuts. US Treasury yields/USD Index (DXY) soared. Risk assets (US stocks and BTC) were pressured and fell.
The macro panorama of last night's drop to $80,000+ and this morning's rebound to $81,800: The cause of last night's sharp drop (downward resonance):
US-Iran talks fell into deadlock/negotiation tug-of-war, crude oil prices rose triggering inflation concerns. US stocks opened sharply lower, US Treasury yields strengthened, risk-off sentiment suppressed BTC below $83,000, triggering a chain liquidation of crypto derivatives longs, instantly piercing down to $80,000. The cause of this morning's rebound (sentiment repair): Official statements from Trump and others and renewed market digestion of talk signals. Crude oil met resistance at short-term highs, panic sentiment eased. Gold's decline stabilized, funds began seeking oversold rebound targets from the sharp drop. After risk-off sentiment cooled, spot bottom-fishing led BTC to rise back to $81,800.
$$BTC Hello everyone, I'm back to report the battle situation. Today the account mainly shows a "lush green".
BTC 20x long position, -18% return hanging at the mountaintop in the wind, margin still has 276U, the liquidation price is far away, planning to play dead for now.
SOL 3x long position, about -8%, overall the account looks a bit uncomfortable, but as long as it hasn't liquidated, there's hope.
DOGE 20x long position is quite stable, -0.17% basically hovering near the cost line, neither painful nor itchy.
Summary: Long positions got beaten by the market, the only comfort is that the liquidation price is still far away. The survival rule in the crypto world: as long as I don't sell, I haven't lost (self-comforting). Continuing to watch the market tonight, hoping for a rebound!
#比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 From the $BTC 4-hour structure perspective, the current market shows a clear bearish trend, with highs continuously moving lower, overall presenting a stepped downward pattern. After a large bearish candle previously dropped to around 80300, there was a brief halt in the decline, but the subsequent rebound candles had very small bodies, indicating a serious lack of buying support, which is a typical bearish continuation pattern. The 83000 level above has turned from support into strong resistance. In terms of operation, it is recommended to short on rallies near 82100-82600, with targets looking down to 80000-795000. The main strategy is to follow the trend and short, with strict risk control to guard against oversold rebounds.
$ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 [Comeback Story 2] A Bloody Lesson!
At first, I planned to proceed steadily, but after just a few days, I was forcibly liquidated again. This might be a common issue in contract trading. I thought it over all night and reviewed my trading, summarizing it in a few sentences:
1. Set stop-losses! No matter how confident you are about the market trend, risk control is essential. Usually, what you think is confidence is actually the root and sign of failure. Don't be blindly arrogant; always set stop-losses.
2. Give up decisively! When the market trend has changed, you must follow the rules and cut losses decisively. This forced liquidation was on mainstream altcoins. When I opened the position, I analyzed the trend using Bollinger Bands, EMA, MACD, RDJ, etc., all predicting an upward trend, so I entered decisively. But within a few hours, the trend reversed and kept falling, with occasional pullbacks that were just illusions. Unfortunately, when the pullback reached near break-even, I failed to exit properly, and what awaited me was a steady decline.
3. No funds, no mainstream! I have been trading contracts for one or two years, experiencing 100x profits and instant liquidations. Looking back, the coins that actually made money were these altcoins. The so-called big and second coins are actually manipulated even more fiercely than altcoins. So personally, I think retail investors without substantial funds are better suited for altcoins. This doesn't mean mainstream coins are bad; historically, big and second coins have been strong coins that still rose through major bear markets, which is evident. But they require huge capital to withstand these bear markets, which is too difficult for ordinary people.
The above is purely my personal opinion, a reminder to myself of this lesson! Not investment advice. After the needle drop, the market fell silent.
Last night, $BTC plunged from above 86000 to 82300 within minutes, with trading volume exploding instantly. Just a few days ago, people were shouting about 100,000 and millions, but now they're staring blankly at the liquidation line. Leverage is like wings when prices rise, but a noose when they fall.
$ETH broke below 2560, dropping nearly 5% intraday, directly breaking through the consolidation zone that lasted half a month. If 2600 can't be reclaimed, it's all talk; if 2540 is lost, 2520 is in sight.
$ZEC is even more brutal. At a price of 1240, it has dropped more than 20% from the previous high of 1700. 1320 has turned into resistance; only by reclaiming 1400 can a reversal be discussed; below, 1280 is the last line of defense. My 1400 position is stuck in the middle, caught in a dilemma.
But don't rush to cheer.
The real battlefield isn't how much it fell today, but whether BTC can stand back above 84000 or 85000. If it can't recover, any rebound is just a gift to the shorts.
The market neither sympathizes with tears nor rewards fanaticism. After the needle drop, only those who survive have the right to talk about tomorrow.
Personal opinion, not investment advice
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC BTC 1-hour K, current price 81687, rebounding and recovering from the low of 80351.
Above the short-term moving average, MACD red bars expanding, KDJ's J at 89 approaching overbought, with risk of a pullback.
Resistance at 82055, strong resistance at 82439; support at 81453, bottom at 80351.
This is a rebound after a decline, the trend has not reversed.
For long positions near 82055, prioritize reducing holdings, with defense at 81453;
If no position, do not chase longs at the current price, wait for resistance to stall before looking for short opportunities.
- Moving averages: MA5=81741, MA10=81453, price is above short-term moving averages; MA20 and MA30 above at 82055 and 82413 forming resistance, Supertrend resistance at 82439.7, the key level for this rebound.
Indicator breakdown
1. KDJ: K65.4, D53.7, J89.0, J value rising rapidly, about to enter overbought zone, short-term pullback adjustment possible at any time.
2. RSI6: 46.6, in neutral zone, not yet at strong overbought 70, bulls have slight remaining strength but not strong.
3. MACD: DIFF and DEA still below zero line, red bars expanding, indicating a rebound repair within a downtrend, not a trend reversal to an uptrend.SUI
Current price 1.0447, slight rebound after a sharp drop.
Resistance levels: 1.0532, strong resistance above at 1.0895;
Support level: 0.9971, the low point of this round.
News: Hashi mainnet gradually launching this month
5 billion capital committed
Recovery rally after a large bearish candle
To strengthen, it needs to hold above 1.05
Breaking below 0.997 likely leads to further decline
High volatility, set stop-loss properly!
$ETH $ZEC $SUI
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 "The President Calls for a Cut, the Fed Raises, Whom to Listen To?"
Trump is at odds with the Federal Reserve. He says except for Warsh, other governors hope the economy worsens and that rates should be cut. Treasury Secretary Becerra is even more amusing, saying once Iran finishes its energy conflict, inflation will come down and rates will naturally fall. It sounds positive, but the September minutes show all 19 members unanimously raised rates to 4%, with most believing another hike is needed before year-end.
The President calls for rate cuts, the Fed is raising rates—who has the final say? The market votes with its feet: BTC bottomed at 82,200 with no rise; gold broke 4,100, silver broke 60. The expectation of rate cuts is distant water, unable to extinguish the immediate fire. No one knows when Iran will finish its conflict, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains high.
I've held a short position at 79,388 for nearly a month; the direction seems wrong, so I hedged. It's not admitting defeat, just not wanting to stubbornly hold on. When the trend is unclear, locking positions is better than stubbornly holding. I'll unlock when the signal is clear.
$BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
Personal operation only, not investment advice.$BTC Today I estimate the trend as shown in the chart:
The 4-hour sell-off volume is getting larger and larger, with some buyers at 80400, temporarily stabilizing the market. Last night I placed an order at 79164 but it didn't get filled, however, I have already bought 100k in spot.
I estimate the market will range between 80400-81000 today, forming a box. The 4-hour MACD still shows a rebound trend, it depends on how the whales choose to act. The 3-day candlestick looks precarious, just one MACD step away from a death cross, so I will keep observing!
$ETH is dumping and weak like diarrhea, but interestingly some altcoins haven't dropped much and didn't follow the decline. Don't touch them in the near term. If the main coins break their range, none of them will escape!
$xSPCX I've talked about US stocks many times, analyzed it since around 120. Among the high positions, it has the least risk and a great narrative. I think anything below 130 is worth buying. Don't chase it recently; wait for the big unlock later to see if it will dump and pull back!Woke up to losses
Bitcoin and Ethereum led another sell-off. Bitcoin fell below 82,000,
$ETH Ethereum was even harsher, dropping directly to around 2,470. The market has been crashing terribly these days,
altcoins all plunged along, liquidations everywhere, market sentiment is just unbearable to watch, a typical bull market sharp correction, the shakeout is nerve-wracking.
Yesterday all altcoins were falling, especially $ZEC. It initially dropped 8%, then 10%, then 15%. Seeing this, I impulsively shorted. This morning I checked,
Damn, the market actually rebounded! Ethereum didn’t continue to fall as expected, ZEC instead rose 7%, and I immediately lost 6U cutting losses. But the more I thought about it, the angrier I got, so I opened another short at a high price, hoping this time it would be right.
Speaking of RAY, I held a long position in RAY, with unrealized profit dropping from 38U to 28U, but I kept holding. In the afternoon, Ethereum continued to fall, RAY’s profit rose to over 20U, so I sold 25%. By evening, Ethereum dropped 5% directly, I couldn’t hold on and closed all my RAY positions, really kicking myself.
Yesterday I also shorted $MET, luckily no big rebound happened, now with an unrealized profit of 3U, I plan to keep holding. I feel altcoins will always go to zero eventually, I just want to hold on and endure their gains.
Keep it up, genius traders, believe in the power of belief! Event: Encryption security experts have just issued a red alert, calling on Bitcoin holders to switch to "bunker mode" (shelter mode). The reason is the breakthrough progress of AI and quantum computing directly threatening more than 6 million BTC stored in wallets with exposed Public Keys. Detailed analysis notes: Technical nature (Elliptic Curve Cryptography): When you send BTC, the wallet's Public Key is permanently recorded on the chain. In theory, from the Public Key it is impossible to decode n$PUMP is really a chump's fate. I didn't hold the short at the 0.0066 high point yesterday, otherwise I would have profited. Later I got shaken out, didn't even get a bite, couldn't hold the short during the drop, and then went to bottom-fish with longs and lost money. From the current view, pump just broke the four-hour level, and there's still room to fall. Missed the meat yesterday, can I get some broth today? 😂😂早上看了一圈市场。 熟悉的画面还在继续： BTC约8.14万美元 ETH约2440美元 SOL约108美元 而且山寨整体明显比BTC跌得更狠。 不过今天早上我觉得不能只看K线。 一边是风险资产继续承压， 另一边是传统金融进入Crypto的动作还在继续。 简单整理几个值得看的消息。 1️⃣ BTC为什么还是弱？ 目前最大的压力，我觉得依然来自宏观。 昨天美股： 标普500跌约0.5% 纳斯达克跌约1.3% 美国10年期国债收益率一度冲到5.3%以上，后来回落到约5.23%。 同时布伦特原油仍在： 100美元以上。 这几个东西放在一起，对加密都不算友好。 简单理解： 油价高 → 通胀压力增加 通胀高 → 利率更难下来 美债收益率高 → 资金更愿意拿低风险收益 风险资产自然容易承压。 所以最近BTC跌，并不完全是Crypto内部出了什么问题。 2️⃣ ETF资金最近也确实在撤 目前最新完整数据里， 10月7日美国现货BTC ETF净流出： 4.849亿美元 其中BlackRock IBIT单日流出约： 2.077亿美元。 ETH ETF当天也净流出约： 1.609亿美元。 这个数据其实挺重要Brothers, last night's drop was not an ordinary correction, but a real round of leverage liquidation.
BTC dipped as low as 80344, ETH hit 2405, and SOL was crushed down to 105.6. After key supports were consecutively broken, stop-loss orders, liquidation orders, and quant sell orders all triggered together, causing the market to waterfall instantly.
Today's rebound does have some support, but don't rush to call a reversal yet.
BTC has returned above 81,000, ETH has bounced back near 2470, but the rebound volume hasn't yet surpassed last night's decline volume. This indicates that currently it's more of an oversold recovery and short covering, with no clear inflow of new funds yet.
My approach is simple:
Wait for BTC to firmly hold 82300–82500, ETH to hold above 2500 and not break on pullback, then consider going long with the trend.
For a more aggressive approach, wait for BTC to pull back near 81100 and ETH near 2450 with support, then try a light long position.
Don't chase shorts at low levels; wait for BTC to rebound to 82300–82600 and ETH to 2500–2520 with clear resistance before considering shorting.
If 80300 and 2400 are broken again, last night's lows might just be a downward continuation, not the bottom.
Right now, the most valuable thing is not direction, but patience.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 Long positions set up at 00:33 last night, now exited
The 2500 take profit order is no longer fixed, short-term longs lack a clear pattern
Before the market stabilizes, still following the original plan (take some profit at key points and then exit) $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Today's market is interesting. After $BTC plunged from a high, it pulled back a bit. All three positions in the account are green, both shorts and longs are making money.
$BTC: [Long position turns positive, testing patience]
Entry price 81139.955, current price 81861.76, isolated 20X, margin 731.88U, unrealized profit 130.54U, ROI 17.83%.
The newly opened long position finally turned positive today, entering basically near the cost line, now slowly moving up.
$DOGE: [Short position main force, the happiest in the market]
Entry price 0.0881177, current price 0.0845836, isolated 20X, margin 170.98U, unrealized profit 137.1U, ROI 80.20%.
This position has been pushing down all the way, with 20X leverage the profit is already quite considerable. Keep holding the short.
$XRP: [Profit retracement, take-profit dilemma]
Entry price 1.4107, current price 1.3857, isolated 20X, margin 412.65U, unrealized profit 146.22U, ROI 35.44%.
This position once surged to an 87% return. Today, the $BTC rebound drove altcoins to recover, cutting the profit directly in half to 35%. The meat that was about to be eaten flew away; saying it’s not a pity would be a lie. But looking back, not taking profit at the high point is my own fault, can’t blame the market.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 #三星钱包将上线USDC跨境转账 ETH long-short ratio soars above 70%, this market looks a bit bloody 📉🩸
ETH crashed from 2724 down to 2567, a big bearish candle on the daily chart, breaking through MA5, MA10, and MA20, with the MACD death cross widening. The market can be summed up in two words: weak. 💥
What about the contract long-short ratio? Bulls at 70.47%, bears at 29.53%, long-short ratio 2.39. It just dropped a bit, and bottom-fishers have already crowded in. 🐻
At times like this, will the main force kindly pull it back? Without washing out the bulls, the market won’t easily turn around. 🪤
So some ask: why not take profits yet?
I’m really not in a hurry at this level. If it dares to rebound, I’d consider adding short positions; if it struggles to rally, I’ll lightly try shorting, targeting 2500 first, and if it breaks that, then 2400. 🎯
Remember: don’t overleverage, always use stop-loss. Same goes for BTC and ZEC, first watch the sentiment, then talk about direction. ⚠️
Personal review, not investment advice.Altcoins haven't finished falling in this round yet. The total market cap dropped 5.12% in one day, down to 2.77 trillion USD, with $BTC only down 1.92% at 81,724, accounting for 59.07%. The extra drop is all on altcoins, with $ETH down 3.82%, $SOL down 6.25% at 109.18.
The heaviest drop is $NEAR, down 16.73%, with a trading volume of 1.54 billion USD and a turnover rate of 26.43%, indicating a volume-driven decline. DeFi tokens are all falling: $CRV down 13.74%, LDO down 12.6%.
WatcherGuru reports that the US government transferred over 1 billion USD worth of Bitcoin seized from the Bitfinex case to an unknown wallet. BTC itself hasn't moved much; the first to be cut were altcoins.
On contracts, CTSI has a fee rate of -0.39%, and after the negative fee rate, the price tends to continue falling.
In the next 48 hours, altcoins will continue to underperform BTC. Conditions for a bullish reversal: BTC's dominance drops from 59.07% and turns downward, while ETH holds above 2475.64. Last night Bitcoin reached the second support level at 80,000, with a low wick down to 80,330. Will it continue to rise or fall next? My view is that Bitcoin's previous increase was over 40%, so a normal correction of about 15% to 20% is also very normal. Therefore, when Bitcoin drops to around 75,000, don't be surprised; it could even go lower. Let's wait and see.Five years ago, Elon Musk proposed an upgrade prescription for Dogecoin, and now someone has actually turned it into a product. In 2021, he suggested: increase speed by ten times, expand block size by ten times, and reduce fees by a hundred times, making DOGE suitable for global payments. This week, Metallicus CEO and Dogecoin Foundation board member Marshall Hayner announced the launch of the DogecoinVM Alpha version on the Metal Blockchain mainnet, with transaction confirmation times reduced to 0.15 to 0.25 seconds, 300 times faster than the main chain. His exact words were: "We achieved 300 times faster."
The cleverness of this approach lies in not altering the original chain. The team did not change the Dogecoin core protocol nor issue new coins, but instead built a parallel proof-of-stake layer: DOGE is locked on the mainnet and mapped 1:1 into the new layer, with old wallets and private keys still usable, and the UTXO model fully preserved. The upgrade happens underneath, so holders don’t need to move their coins.
However, this is just the first half. The Alpha version has a single deposit limit of 100 $DOGE, the code is open source but has not yet undergone independent auditing, and the team is pushing for bank-grade security certification, targeting fintech and institutional payment scenarios. The vision has taken its first step; its quality depends on auditing, capacity, and the pace of real-world application deployment.The rebar inside this load-bearing wall is about to snap. Who gave you the nerve to catch the falling precast slabs with bare hands now? 🏗️
Just got down from the scaffolding, wiped the cement dust off my face, and took a look at the $SOL chart. The price dropped to around 109.05, the 1-hour RSI fell to 34.9, and the lower Bollinger Band is at 105.86. The whole building is shaking like it just hit a magnitude 5 aftershock. Honestly, the foundation is too weak; you can't tell if the main force is trying to cap it off or planning to demolish and rebuild.
The direction is completely unclear, but the wages in my hand can't go to waste. Betting one-sided at this time is like standing on a suspended basket without a safety rope, so I choose to build scaffolding on both sides—locking long and short positions at the same leverage to hedge. The longs catch the oversold rebound of the foundation, and the shorts guard against the beams and columns breaking and crashing through the basement. Both sides are secured tightly; no one can blow my position.
Let's see which side holds first. If it can firmly hold 106 and re-grout to build a bottom, I'll release the short position lock and let the longs be pulled up by the crane; if the foundation collapses along with the settlement cracks, I'll cut the longs and let the shorts smash through by gravity.
- Target: $SOL 🟢
- Entry: 107.50 - 109.50
- TP1: 114.00
- TP2: 117.10
- SL: 104.50
Now it's just a matter of whether this load-bearing column can withstand the falling weight. Two trowels are already set up; whichever side collapses, we'll patch it up there. 🧱
#CoinMoveAlertHas $BTC made a bullish reversal?
Big BTC, ETH, ZEC
This wave of decline has released huge profit pressure from the bulls.
If it can rebound and stabilize now,
there might be a chance for a new rally.
If it can't hold, then it's trouble, just admit the mistake and stop loss.
Although it's a big loss, it's a small step forward in the pattern,
loss means no adding positions,
if positions were added, it would have already blown up.
In the future, if there's a loss and the thought of adding positions arises,
immediately clear the position, this move should be correct.#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Midnight waterfall! BTC breaks below 83,000, bulls suffer heavy losses, defense points here! Brothers, this late-night sharp drop is quite brutal. BTC directly fell below 83,000, with a low wick near 81,200; over $550 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated within 24 hours, mainly hitting longs. The core reasons for this plunge are three words: oil, bonds, hawks. Middle East tensions pushed oil prices back above $102, US Treasury yields surged to a 24-year high, and the Fed minutes leaned hawkish, putting risk assets under broad pressure. Key levels: resistance above at 83,400-83,900; failure to reclaim this on a rebound signals weakness. Defensive support first looks at 82,150-82,300, the last short-term line of defense; a decisive break likely leads to the 80,000 psychological level. Spot order books show thick buy orders in the 79,000-83,000 range, with no obvious signs of panic selling; a sharp drop to this range might actually find support. #BitcoinCrash #BTCsupport #FedRateHike #MiddleEastTensions #CryptoLiquidationScumbag observation on SPCX update 10.9
Big Rocket US stock closed at 160.57, down 4.19%, intraday high 167.60, low 16.00
Continuing from last time, after Big Rocket failed to hold the 5-day moving average, it went down to seek support at the 10-day moving average. From the candlestick chart in Figure 3, it is clear that it hit the 10-day moving average and is currently slightly rebounding.
Since US stocks and others are now on-chain, Scumbag will combine on-chain data to analyze stocks going forward.
There was news after the market that
SpaceX has reached an agreement to obtain nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, which will enable Starlink Mobile to provide better indoor coverage, including signals that can penetrate walls and other obstacles.
Currently, it appears to be within the US, but global deployment including Europe, South America, Africa, Asia, Antarctica, the Arctic, and the major oceans cannot be ruled out. The signal arrives before people do—amazing. Just imagine when the days of going abroad and changing SIM cards will finally end.
Of course, Scumbag is optimistic about Big Rocket in the short term until before the Q3 earnings report. If the stock price breaks 200 before the Q3 report, Scumbag will reduce the position in this stock to below 50%.Don't rush to say, "If stablecoin trading volume increases, it's the bull market back." This time it feels more like a quiet repricing 🌙. Have you noticed? The path of money turnover on-chain is actually quite different from last month? Looking at the 24-hour increase in stablecoin trading volume on DEXs, my first reaction wasn't excitement, but a bit of surprise. Uniswap's two versions combined increased by $910.9 million, with V4 alone adding +555.8 million and V3 adding 355.1 million, accounting for over 60%. This number itself isn't surprising; what's strange is its location—the most "honest" stablecoin pair on-chain—suddenly becoming the busiest place. Don't simply interpret it as a deposit signal. Stablecoin trading volume may be due to position swapping, or possibly swapping positions into U before exiting. The key point is that this increase is concentrated on Uniswap, not fully blooming. Fluid DEX surged to third place with +94.5 million, indicating it has its own loyal customer base in stablecoin pairs. PancakeSwap's two versions combined +90.7 million, showing the effects of the multi-chain strategy. Hyperliquid's stablecoin transactions also increased by +49.6 million. A perpetual contract platform reaching into spot settlement is more worth watching than the numbers themselves. So what exactly is the market trading? My understanding is that everyone is preemptively repricing the "on-chain dollar channel." As a governance token, UNI may not directly benefit from trading volume in the short term, but fee switching is expected to be repeatedly discussed. HYPE, as wellCore DAO proactively withdrawing its validator nodes can be interpreted in two completely different ways: whether it voluntarily delinks and exits the validator set or is just a temporary shutdown. 1. The ideal interpretation: Decentralization (positive narrative) The Core network has only 31 active validator nodes in total. - The foundation proactively exits its its official validator nodes, no longer monopolizing validator seats, and hands over block production rights to third-party community validators. - This means the project team no longer controls the network, weakening the foundation's control over the chain, aligning with the goal of decentralization of public chains. - This is a routine practice for many public chains in the later stages and does not mean the chain is about to run away. But here's a key point: although official nodes exit, if a large number of staking orders remain concentrated in the hands of a few top validators, the network remains highly centralized, with control simply transferred from the project team to a few large players. 2. Negative Signals to Watch Out For (Market Concern) If the core official validator node suddenly withdraws without prior announcement, the market generally interprets it as the following issues. 1. Project team operations and maintenance contraction and budget cuts Running validator nodes requires ongoing server and operational labor costs. - Token prices remain sluggish, ecosystem revenue falls short of expectations, teams cut expenses and no longer bear validator costs. - This indicates that project teams are unwilling to continue investing in maintaining this chain, signaling weakening fundamentals. 2. Lack of team confidence Every time I open a position, as long as I'm not analyzing rationally at that moment, sometimes it’s very accurate, sometimes it’s not. One mistake can lead to irreversible disaster. Sometimes being too rational makes me timid, causing me to miss many opportunities. The market is like a mirror that always reveals my character flaws, leading to repeated mistakes, profits turning into losses, and losses turning into profits. In the end, it all ends in failure. For example, the highest short position on ZEC during that period—I even added to the position during the rebound. Later, it was inexplicably closed out. It's hard to maintain constant calm and rational market analysis. Maybe this is due to my personality, lacking patience in handling things. Since I stopped using high leverage, my control over greed and fear has improved a lot compared to before. I can also keep a stable mindset during volatility. It seems the road ahead is still long. I will keep working hard 💪 and maintain respect for the market. I approach life with the same mindset as the market. I believe that one day I will succeed.ZEC
Current price 1183.56, a strong rebound after a sharp drop.
Resistance levels: 1237.98, strong resistance above at 1289;
Support levels: 1111.30, the lifeline low of this round.
Grayscale ETF continues to see capital outflows, negative news persists
This is a rebound after overselling, don’t take it directly as a reversal
Focus on whether 1238 can be broken through, only if 1111 holds below is there a chance for continued rebound; if broken, it will test lower again.
$ZEC $ETH $CT
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC $ETH The major coins Bitcoin and Ethereum have already entered a downward trend. After dropping to the low point of 80351, there was concentrated position reduction. Following a deep wick, a large number of liquidations and forced closures occurred, releasing short-term selling pressure in one round. After a wave of sharp decline, many were washed out. Now it is a post-wash recovery observation period.
The probability of continuous violent wicks in the short term has decreased. For those holding positions, it is recommended to firmly set stop-loss and take-profit at key price levels, and not to hold positions based on feelings.ETH
Current price 2475.21, slight rebound after a sharp drop.
Resistance levels: 2522.48, strong resistance above at 2597;
Support levels: 2405.03, defense line at this round's low.
On-chain protocol migration completed, limited impact from the news. Overall trend remains weak, currently just a corrective rebound after the decline, not a reversal. First, see if it can break through the 2522 resistance; holding 2405 provides breathing room, breaking below will continue to test lower levels.
The major trend follows BTC.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 $SUI has entered the oversold zone; a rebound and a bottom are two different things.
$SUI 24h -8.64%, current price 1.0419. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 29 and 16 respectively. Oversold conditions can trigger rebound demand, but a rebound only indicates a sharp drop; a bottom requires the price to stop breaking the structure.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 4.21% away from the 1-hour support at 0.998 and about 10.07% away from resistance at 1.1468. Only by comparing these two distances can we see which side requires more evidence. Looking only at the rise or fall makes it easy to mistake the space already traveled as space yet to begin.
The opposing side also has a clear invalidation line. Breaking below the 1-hour support at 0.998 means short-term support has failed the test; if it continues to break the 4-hour support at 0.998, the previous strong or recovery judgment must be rewritten. You can hold your view, but you cannot pretend not to see when the evidence changes.
It’s easier to understand this market move as equipment acceptance: running unloaded doesn’t mean completion; stability under boundary conditions gives weight to conclusions. Write your views as conditions so you know where you were wrong if you are. Which signal would you rather wait for to judge: oversold enough to change the rhythm, or must you wait for the structure to stop making new lows? The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle Bull.After the needle drop, the market fell silent.
Last night, $BTC plunged from above 86000 to 82300 within minutes, with trading volume exploding instantly. Just a few days ago, people were shouting about 100,000 and millions, but now they're staring blankly at the liquidation line. Leverage is like wings when prices rise, but a noose when they fall.
$ETH broke below 2560, dropping nearly 5% intraday, directly breaking through the consolidation zone that lasted half a month. If 2600 can't be reclaimed, it's all talk; if 2540 is lost, 2520 is in sight.
$ZEC is even more brutal. At a price of 1240, it has dropped more than 20% from the previous high of 1700. 1320 has turned into resistance; only by reclaiming 1400 can a reversal be discussed; below, 1280 is the last line of defense. My 1400 position is stuck in the middle, caught in a dilemma.
But don't rush to cheer.
The real battlefield isn't how much it fell today, but whether BTC can stand back above 84000 or 85000. If it can't recover, any rebound is just a gift to the shorts.
The market neither sympathizes with tears nor rewards fanaticism. After the needle drop, only those who survive have the right to talk about tomorrow.
Personal opinion, not investment advice
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 October 15 is approaching, and what crypto traders need to catch up on is not their positions but their records
The extended filing deadline for the US 2025 tax year is October 15, 2026. For taxpayers who have already applied for an extension as required, the most important thing to pay attention to is not the coin price, but whether the transaction records are complete. The new Form 1099-DA introduced by the IRS this year also makes the reporting of digital asset transactions more specific.
One easily overlooked point is that receiving reports from trading platforms does not mean your cost basis has been fully recorded. The IRS clearly reminds that some 1099-DA forms for 2025 may not include cost basis, and taxpayers still need to calculate gains or losses themselves. Those who have done transfers across multiple platforms, coin swaps, and frequent trading especially cannot just look at how much $BTC or $ETH remains in their accounts.
Another detail: the extension applies to the submission deadline of the tax return, not the tax payment deadline. Generally, taxes owed are still due by the original April deadline, and delaying payment until October may involve interest or penalties; special extension cases such as disaster areas need to be verified separately.
I have always felt that traders most easily overestimate their memory and most easily underestimate the cost of record-keeping. When the market is good, they think transaction records are unimportant, but when it comes time to verify every trade, fee, and cost basis, they realize the hardest thing to make up for is not the profit, but the evidence. Those who survive long-term in the market must keep their accounts clear.
#美2025年度延期报税10月15日截止，涉及加密申报 Whale "Sets 10 Big Goals First": Under Multiple Macro Headwinds, $BTC Only Retraces About 5%, Will Continue Holding If It Doesn't Break Below $79,000
Famous whale "sets 10 big goals first" latest view: Currently, multiple macro headwinds such as rising long-term bond yields and escalating geopolitical risks are hitting simultaneously, but BTC has only retraced 5%, showing very strong resilience. His holding strategy is very clear: as long as the $79,000 level holds, he will continue to hold long positions; if it breaks down effectively, he will exit to avoid risk.
Here are my thoughts.
This round of decline is not very friendly; rising long-term US Treasury yields suppress risk assets, and market panic is spreading, but BTC's drop is limited, indicating strong support below and that long-term holders are unwilling to give up easily. The underlying structure of the bull market has not been destroyed for now.
But it is important to distinguish: resilience ≠ immediate rebound. The whale's approach essentially uses $79,000 as a defensive lifeline to hold trend positions. This price level is an important support for bulls; holding it means consolidation and accumulation; a volume-driven break below means the bull defense line collapses and opens the door for a deeper correction.
Operational reference: Do not blindly follow the whale to heavily position. The whale's capital size and cost basis are completely different from ordinary traders. Participate lightly in contracts; $79,000 is the key observation point. If it holds, you can play for a rebound; if it breaks effectively, do not hold the position stubbornly, prioritize reducing positions and stop losses.
Key points to watch going forward: US Treasury yields, ETF fund flows, and whether the $79,000 support level can hold.ORCA current price 2.348, RSI 58 neutral to slightly bullish, MACD green bars shortening, momentum weakening. Consolidating at a high level, liquidation is dense in the 2.19 to 2.25 range, short-term pullback pressure is real. There is liquidation support from 2.37 to 2.43 above, but if volume can't keep up, it's just paper support. The overall market cap dropped 1.04% to 2.70 trillion, trading volume shrank simultaneously, funds are withdrawing, don't hold on stubbornly.
Just finished patrolling the building, the delivery vehicle downstairs is parked in the fire lane again, I’ll have to put a ticket on it later.
ORCA is stuck in a middle position, chasing longs is just catching a knife. My strategy: lightly short on a rebound to 2.36 to 2.38, stop loss at 2.44, take profit first target at 2.26, second target at 2.20. If it directly drops near 2.19 with volume picking up, you can flip to a short-term long, stop loss at 2.14, target 2.32. Don’t be greedy, take a bite and run. High-level consolidation is the most frustrating, better to miss out than to make a mistake. In this market, staying alive is more important than making quick money.
$ORCA
#三星Q3初步利润首破100万亿韩元
@OKX星球 The Nasdaq gave back the new high it reached on Tuesday.
The trigger was not weaker employment but a rebound in oil prices and chips being sold off first.
Dow at 51232, up 52 points, +0.1%, fluctuating around the zero line all day;
S&P at 7765, down 36 points, -0.5%, closing lower for the second consecutive day;
Nasdaq at 27193, down 345 points, -1.3%; Russell 2000 basically flat.
So far this week, the S&P still has a 0.6% gain, the Nasdaq has almost wiped out this week's gains, leaving just a small floating profit, and small caps are still down 1.4%.
Year-to-date, the S&P is up about 13%, Nasdaq about 17%.
Most S&P components are actually up, but the tech sector's decline has overshadowed the overall market gains.
Initial jobless claims at 197,000, down 2,000, below 200,000 for the fourth consecutive week, and below market expectations;
Continuing claims rose to 1.716 million.
Monthly nonfarm payrolls may soften, but weekly claims data remain at post-pandemic lows, which does not support rate cuts.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimates Q3 growth at 3.6%.
Employment hasn't worsened significantly, growth remains relatively strong, and the minutes' mention of "possibly one more rate hike by year-end" still holds weight; rising oil prices have pushed this expectation higher.
Brent crude surged to 104 intraday, touched near 106 in early trading, then retreated somewhat by the close, but the upward trend hasn't broken.
The catalyst was attacks on Persian Gulf oil tankers, US production forecast cuts, plus Trump's statement of no intention to reach an agreement with Iran.
Market structure: energy leads gains, tech lags.
The 10-year US Treasury yield approached 5.36% in early trading, hitting the highest level since 2002, then fell back in the afternoon but remained above 5.2%.
Yields surged and then retreated, but chips did not rebound; the semiconductor index plunged 3.4%.
Nvidia fell nearly 3%, the worst performer in the Dow; Arm, Intel, and Micron also had significant declines.
The trigger came from a Financial Times report: OpenAI's annual revenue is $20 billion less than previously expected by the market.
It's not that orders disappeared out of thin air, but the market is starting to doubt whether the revenue expectations corresponding to a $6 trillion market cap are overblown.
Pepsi's earnings beat expectations but couldn't lift the index;
Chipotle rose about 4% on Starbucks acquisition rumors, while Starbucks itself fell over 3%.
Tomorrow we will watch the Michigan consumer sentiment; Delta Air Lines' earnings can be used to observe whether oil prices above $100 have passed through to ticket prices.
But more noteworthy than these is: chips down 3.4%, Brent crude still holding above 104.
The new high stopped on Tuesday.
If oil prices don't pull back, this 1.3% drop in the Nasdaq may not be a simple shakeout.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 Arthur Hayes is speaking out again.
He said that every major bull market cycle starts with a hurdle. In 2017, it was the block size debate; in 2020, the pandemic; in 2023, the FTX collapse plus interest rate hikes; and by 2026, it will be AI and the panic around crypto.
Outsiders reading this might first think: Who is this guy, and why is he saying there will be a surge next year again?
I get that feeling. Hearing it too much can be exhausting.
But his logic boils down to one sentence: As long as money keeps being printed, assets will eventually rise. Those previous hurdles, in hindsight, were just noise.
To be fair, I don’t disagree with the direction. When there’s too much money, it has to go somewhere.
The problem is the timing. He says 2026, but no one tells you how to get through the next two years.
Statements like this are best saved as screenshots, not used as trading signals. The blunt truth is: those calling the bull market never take responsibility for whether you can hold on until that day.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $ETH When the green rocket meets the word "short selling," you truly understand what it means to "fall into a starry sea."
$JTO USDT is currently showing a clear one-sided downward trend, from an opening average price of 0.5667 to a mark price of 0.5071. The bears continue to dominate the market, and 50x leverage has amplified the damage of this drop.
My strategy is very clear: place short positions above 0.56, relying on 50x leverage to fully capitalize on the decline. The current +525.85% floating profit is the best proof. If it hits previous lows or the rebound is weak, I will continue to hold and take profits in batches to secure gains. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Brothers, BTC and ETH are both hit hard by "geopolitics + rate hikes," with ETH directly crashing below 2,500.
$BTC $84,800 | $ETH $2,478
Bitcoin slid from above 86,000 to around 84,800, while Ethereum broke below the 2,500 mark, dropping over 4% in 24 hours, clearly underperforming BTC. In the past 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations totaling $919 million, with long positions accounting for 91.25%, and Ethereum liquidations leading at $327 million.
Geopolitical risks + ETF outflows add another layer of bearishness for ETH
The trigger is the escalation in the Middle East. The US reportedly asked the military to prepare options for action against Iran, Brent crude surged above $105, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rose above 5.3%. The simultaneous rise in oil prices and interest rates is putting pressure on risk assets.
The funding situation is also deteriorating. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for several consecutive days, losing another $219 million in a single day. More importantly, BitMine chairman Tom Lee clearly stated that the company’s holdings are close to the 5% cap of ETH’s total supply and will stop weekly regular purchases. The largest marginal buyer in recent months is about to exit, and the market is pricing in this gap in advance.
Technically, there is a whale liquidation line near ETH 2,445; breaking below it could trigger a chain liquidation. For BTC, watch the support zone between 82,000-82,600.
Discuss in the comments, did you escape this bull slaughter? 👇
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Hongmei Capital | Trading Diary | Bearish Trend $ETH
NO.017 | 2026.10.09
Market Status: The daily and 4-hour moving averages remain in a downward alignment, Bollinger Bands are widening, currently in a clear downtrend. In a downtrend, short-term corrective rebounds often occur, but most rebounds are just pauses in the decline. After correction ends, there is still a possibility of making new lows in the phase. Subjective bottom guessing should be avoided as much as possible.
Key Levels
- Short-term support: 2380-2400; deeper psychological level 2300
- Short-term resistance: 2450; then 2480-2500
Only if the price can firmly stand above 2500 again will this short-term bearish momentum have a chance to be interrupted.
Whale Liquidation Risk
Two large long positions that the market is watching have liquidation zones concentrated between 2400-2440. Last night’s price repeatedly approached this liquidation area.
Technical analysis of the market, not trading advice!
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 Dropped below the cost price
I know it will rebound
And rebound faster than other assets
So I won't cut losses
But all the profits of more than ten percent are given back
So when there is a rapid price surge
Much higher than the new high
You must sell some
To prevent all profits from being given back#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
Lately, many people in the community have been puzzled. Clearly, BTC spot ETFs are still seeing continuous net inflows, so why isn't the price rising and is instead going down? I've seen several friends asking about this.
From my personal experience, I've seen this phenomenon several times in previous major market cycles; it's really not unusual. Many think that ETF inflows should immediately push prices up, but actually, there's a transmission process from funds entering the market to truly driving the price. Also, a significant portion of ETF inflows comes from off-exchange market makers hedging and arbitraging, so not all the incoming money directly buys in the spot market. Plus, with long-term interest rates staying high on the macro level, valuations of all risk assets are suppressed. Relying solely on ETF buying pressure, the price may not necessarily be pushed up immediately in the short term.
That said, I might not be entirely right either. After years in this field, I no longer judge direction solely based on daily fund inflows. I take it step by step. Everyone should be cautious and not blindly chase inflows. Feel free to share in the comments your recent observations on the relationship between ETF funds and prices. $ETH #ETF Still Flowing In, Why Is BTC Falling?
ETF is buying, BTC is falling
There is a rare divergence between Bitcoin spot ETF capital inflows and the price trend. On October 6, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $119 million, with BlackRock IBIT leading single-day net inflows at $122 million; as of the week ending October 2, ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks, totaling about $241 million, with cumulative net inflows rebounding to approximately $57.8 billion. However, on the same day, Bitcoin briefly surged above $86,600 before sharply plunging, dropping nearly $2,000 within about 20 minutes to below $84,000, with a 24-hour decline of about 2.7%.
The ETF buying pressure is simultaneously hedged by three forces.
First, tightening macro liquidity. The escalation of Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude oil above $102, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.36%, and the 30-year yield hit 5.73%, both reaching 24-year highs. The Fed's September FOMC minutes released a hawkish signal, with most officials favoring another rate hike this year; the market pricing for a December hike remains around 70%. For Bitcoin, which generates no fixed income, every step up in the risk-free rate raises the opportunity cost of holding it, maintaining pressure for funds to migrate from high-risk assets to high-yield U.S. Treasuries.
Second, concentrated liquidation of leveraged longs. During this sharp drop, about $400 million of leveraged long positions were forcibly liquidated within 20 minutes; extending to a 24-hour window, total market liquidations reached about $550 million, with longs accounting for over 87%. The perpetual contract liquidation mechanism creates a negative feedback loop: "price drop → triggers liquidation → intensified selling → further decline." LVRG Research analysts characterize the current movement as a "leveraged washout" rather than a trend reversal, but the liquidations themselves generated selling pressure far exceeding ETF inflows in a short time.
Third, whale behavior divergence, selling pressure has not truly disappeared. Glassnode data shows the trend of whales net depositing Bitcoin to exchanges ended in late August; Binance's BTC reserves decreased by about 40,000 coins after September 20, marking the end of over three months of whale dumping. However, not all large holders are waiting. After Bitcoin failed to break $87,200, whales sold over 30,000 BTC, directly crushing rebound attempts; mid-to-large whales' selling was especially prominent in the recent decline. Whales shifted from "actively dumping" to "selling on rebounds," creating latent supply pressure above.
Technical factors also amplify the pressure. Since September 21, Bitcoin has attempted to break the annual opening price of $87,570 four times without success, with selling pressure above never fully absorbed. After breaking below the 21-day simple moving average (around $83,850), technical selling intensified. CryptoQuant data shows open interest contracts dropped from about $28.8 billion to $26 billion since September 22, a decline of about 10%, indicating investors' willingness to take on further risk is weakening. Short-term holders' average buy-in cost is about $69,500, and the current price still holds roughly 20% unrealized gains, fueling ongoing profit-taking selling pressure.
The structural contradiction is: ETF inflows are "allocation-driven," while the market decline is "trade-driven." BlackRock IBIT has cumulatively net bought about $1.57 billion in Bitcoin over the past month; such funds hold on a quarterly or even annual basis and will not exit due to a single-day 5% fluctuation. But leveraged traders and short-term holders act instantly and reactively; when macro headwinds appear, their selling speed and scale can overwhelm the marginal ETF buying in a very short time.
Looking ahead, if U.S. Treasury yields and oil prices remain high, the leveraged washout may not be over—the current open interest still stands at about $150 billion, meaning there is room for another wave of forced selling. ETF inflows are building a mid-term bottom, but in the short term, they act more like a "shock absorber" than a "driver." The real turning point depends on two conditions occurring simultaneously: macro interest rate pressure peaking and retreating, and leveraged positions being fully cleared. $BTC