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$PONS
The trend basically confirms my previous judgment.
It often rises slightly, then falls back more sharply.
The recent positive news on major mainstream exchanges has already been fully priced in by the market.
Moreover, with protocol revenue showing no improvement, the community having concerns about the manual buyback model, and on-chain liquidity continuing to tighten,
I remain cautious about its future trend and am not optimistic about the sustainability of the rebound.
Currently, my unrealized profit has reached 247U,
My view remains unchanged, continuing to be bearish.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 The rich broth of this pot of $KSM has almost dried up, leaving only a layer clinging to the sides, the bottom of the pot starting to scorch and bubble, and my skimmer is already aimed at that layer of foam.
It rose 3.02% in 24 hours, looking like a good seasoning was just sprinkled in, but if you lift the lid and smell it, you know: this isn’t fresh, it’s overcooked. The short-term RSI is stuck at 65.7, just a breath away from the overbought red line; the long-term RSI, however, is stuck at a neutral 44.5—short-term high heat, long-term low simmer not connecting. This is burnt on the outside, raw inside, and when served, it’s going to be sent back.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands plating: the short-term price is already at 92% of the entire band, only +0.1% away from the upper band, and +1.5% from the lower band—squeezed from both ends, the band width is less than 1.6%, the broth is sealed tight. The mid-term is also positioned high at 78%, with a +3.6% gap left at the lower band. This extreme compression looks like the sauce is simmering to a critical point in the pot; the next second it will either burst with aroma or burn at the bottom.
Don’t forget the basic recipe in my line of work: mainstream coins are the slow-cooked beef ribs, the main dish; altcoins are just the sprinkle of spices on top; leveraged contracts are the bottle labeled "extra spicy" chili oil—two drops to perk you up, half a bottle and you’re rushed to the ER. $KSM now, in my eyes, isn’t even a seasoning; it’s a tasting sample—you take a bite and have to spit it out.
So my move is decisive: I won’t chase this hot oil, I’ll wait for it to spike to $3.25 before shorting. That price is 3.8% above the current price, exactly the moment when the aroma is strongest and most likely to choke you. Unfortunately, the risk-reward ratio isn’t pretty—stopping loss at $3.57 eats up 9.8% of the cost, taking profit 1 at $2.98 only recovers 8.3%, not even 1:1. This is a dish where the cost exceeds the selling price; I’ll only make it once, no second time.
📉 Short:
Entry: 3.25 (current price +3.8%)
Take Profit 1: 2.98 (-5.0%)
Take Profit 2: 3.03 (-3.4%)
Stop Loss: 3.57 (+13.9%)
Both take profit targets are below the current price, one at -5.0%, the other at -3.4%, indicating from the first step of seasoning, this pot is aimed at "pullback." The stop loss is set at +13.9%, not out of leniency, but to give the chili room to burst with aroma.
A true five-star kitchen never serves over-fermented sauce—it will pour the whole pot out while it’s still bubbling.1️⃣ 发生了什么 今晨一句话：BTC 报 81,841 美元，24h 跌约 3%，盘中一度跌破 81,000，最低摸到 80,000 附近；ETH 报 2,479 美元，24h 跌约 3.5%。 全网 24h 爆仓 9.74 亿美元，其中多单 8.96 亿、占比 92%，空单只有 7,800 万——这是一场多头单方面的屠杀。爆仓人数 16.7 万，ETH 以 3.11 亿美元爆仓额居首，BTC 2.38 亿美元紧随其后。 资金面也在撤：周三 BTC 现货 ETF 净流出 4.87 亿美元，ETH 现货 ETF 净流出 1.61 亿美元、连续第 7 天净流出。 2️⃣ 为什么 今天星球热榜第一问就是"#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？"（587 万浏览）——答案分三层。 第一层是纪要。10 月 7 日（北京时间 10 月 8 日凌晨）公布的 9 月 FOMC 纪要其实是双面的：一方面，官员们对 10 月再度加息"缺乏紧迫感"，市场把 10 月加息概率定价在只有 19–22%；另一方面，纪要也显示多数官员不排除年内再加息，社区讨论把 12 月加息概率定价到 60% 以上。所以纪要不算利好#ETF is still flowing in, so why is BTC still falling?
Recently, many people have been asking: clearly BTC spot ETFs are still seeing continuous net inflows, so why is the price not rising but falling instead?
Here’s my personal view: this situation has actually been quite common in previous market cycles. Many people think that ETF inflows will immediately push the price up, but there is a process from capital inflow to price transmission. Also, a significant portion of ETF inflows are market makers doing hedging and arbitrage, so not all the money directly buys in the spot market.
Additionally, with long-term interest rates staying high on the macro side, the valuations of all risk assets are being suppressed. Relying solely on the buying power from ETFs, it’s difficult to directly push the price up in the short term.
That said, I’m not necessarily certain; I basically no longer judge direction based on single-day inflows and take it step by step. Don’t blindly chase just because you see inflows—stay cautious. What relationship between ETF funds and price have you observed recently? Let’s discuss in the comments.$BTC $ZEC 1. Why did it suddenly plunge last night?
1. FOMC minutes were hawkish
Rate cut expectations delayed, US Treasury yields rose, interest-free assets collectively pressured, which is the core source of this decline.
2. Inflation concerns re-emerge
Geopolitical disturbances pushed up oil prices, the market worries about inflation rebound, the Fed maintaining high interest rates longer, directly pressuring the crypto space.
3. Altcoin funds continue to flow out
BTC ETF can still hold steady, but ETH, privacy coins, and small-cap altcoin funds are clearly withdrawing.
ZEC ETF continues redemptions, heavy selling pressure, the decline far exceeds that of Bitcoin.
4. Leveraged long positions cascade liquidations
After key support was lost, it triggered a chain reaction of liquidations, oversold with high volume selling, directly driving the market into a deep pit.
2. Current market characterization
The plunge is a real sell-off, now it is just an oversold recovery rebound, not a reversal!
The large-scale bearish structure has not been repaired, macro pressure still exists.
3. ZEC key price levels
🔹Support
1160–1170 short-term support
1111–1108 ultimate defense bottom
🔹Resistance
1220–1230 first resistance
1270–1280 strong resistance rebound endpoint
5. Practical strategy (most stable)
Positions:
Reduce positions in batches within 1220–1280 range to lower risk
Hold a small portion for speculative recovery if it does not break 1108
If broken, adopt a conservative risk-averse stance
6. Summary
At this stage: there is a rebound, no reversal
Recovery is an opportunity to reduce positions, not a chance to chase gains.
Overall still oscillating weakly, caution is advised! Using 100u fully automated running $ETH Day 50 (08:30)｜Just finished burying, another batch comes
Last night was really intense, the whole network was liquidated $1.125 billion overnight, 167,000 people got wiped out, Ethereum's 319 million surpassed Bitcoin's 287 million, over 90% were long positions—on the morning of the 7th that wave was only 370 million in an hour, last night was much fiercer
At 23:00 the leading candle smashed down 125 points, stopping only at 2405, with several repeated tests around 2410 along the way
Before the open, 70% of accounts were long, adding on the way down, last night's wave was fully buried in. Even more intense now, after wiping out a batch, the rebound still has 70% longs
Before the US market opened last night, there were three levels given, two were hit, the rebound missed by 1 point. I was thinking if after the drop it would test the repair point again, but the repair point never came, instead a big wave came, but I was already asleep then, so 🤖 was watching by itself
This morning the range is very narrow, bouncing around 2475, basically no movement. Judging by the Asian session open, it probably won't stay quiet
The two short ones are repairing, 15-minute and 1-hour MACD have converged; the 4-hour one is still going down, hasn't caught up. Money is also withdrawing—open interest dropped nearly 10% overnight
$BTC $ZEC
🤖 had a rollercoaster night too, the short squeeze fell near 2436, position was okay. The longs were a bit miserable, got buried around 2 AM, losing more than that short position. Switching between longs and shorts, it was quite a hectic night. Overall, it's okayThe ECG of myocardial ischemia never lies—$JITOSOL is currently lying on the examination table in the catheterization lab, with a faint 24H pulse of only 1.97% that cannot mask the conduction system abnormalities. The price is stuck at 87% of the short-term upper Bollinger Band, with only 0.2% compliance space left to the upper band. This is not the diastole of healthy myocardium, but a preload overload with end-diastolic volume fully stretched.
The short-term RSI is 66.4, close to the overbought threshold, while the long-term reading is only 50.4—two conduction systems are separated, with short-term tachycardia ahead of the long-term baseline, a typical precursor to atrial fibrillation. The entry point is set at 98.38, 1.4% higher than the current price, meaning intubation at peak systolic pressure, which is a risk-reward ratio that is not worthwhile.
My judgment: this is not an infarction requiring emergency bypass, but definitely a valvular regurgitation that must be intervened. The SELL signal has already lit up, with the first target at 94.55, a 2.5% retracement, equivalent to reducing preload to the compensation range; the second target at 94.03, a 3.1% depth, basically returning to the hemodynamic balance point near the middle band. What really needs caution is the stop loss at 108.25, 11.6% higher than the current price—this distance is too far, like loosening the tourniquet by two turns, and once breached, it is an event at the level of aortic dissection, requiring immediate termination of extracorporeal circulation.
📉 Short:
Entry: 98.38 (current price +1.4%)
Take Profit 1: 94.55 (-2.5%)
Take Profit 2: 94.03 (-3.1%)
Stop Loss: 108.25 (+11.6%)
Position control must be as precise as controlling the perfusion flow of a cardiopulmonary machine—the stop loss range is more than four times the take profit target. This is not trading; it is opening the chest without blood backup. If hemodynamic instability is found during surgery, do not hesitate; reducing position is like suturing to stop bleeding.The account just gave me a chilling shock! Brothers, this is not "living towards death," this is clearly "recklessly running towards death!"
The moment I opened the account, my hands were trembling, and my head was buzzing. I was already scared awake at midnight when it was 0.10%, and now it has directly dropped to 0.09%. This is like sleeping in a nuclear missile silo!
Position update:
ETH: The biggest bottomless pit! Full 5X leverage, entry price 2718.24, mark price plummeted to 2478.74. Floating loss directly hit -194.80U, ROI -48.33%! Yesterday I was still hesitating whether to add positions, now I'm sweating cold all over. Luckily, I didn't act recklessly then! If I had added, I wouldn't even be able to find my ashes now!
SOL: From feasting to getting beaten! Full 20X leverage, entry 115.63, mark price smashed to 109.1662. Floating loss -85.66U, ROI -118.72%! All the profits I made more than doubled before have been completely given back, and I even lost principal.
$ETH $SOL
$BCH: The last seedling in the whole village! Full 10X leverage, entry 261.02, mark 274.75, still painfully holding on to the last bit of dignity, floating profit +20.46U (+49.76%). But this little profit can't even cover a fraction of ETH's loss.
To be honest: The 20U profit from BCH is just a drop in the bucket compared to the nearly 280U huge losses from ETH and SOL combined. The overall margin ratio is stuck tightly at 0.09%! This means that even if the market dips another 0.09%, this account will instantly go to zero on the spot, without even a second to react!
I once vowed to survive, but the reality is holding long positions tightly while being ground down. Every day I jump back and forth on the line between life and death, unwilling to run when winning, stubbornly holding on when losing. The fate of a contract gambler is vividly playing out on me.
Brothers, this 0.09% gateway to hell, what should I do? Should I quickly cut losses to save myself, or keep holding on waiting for a miracle? Please wake me up in the comments, I really can't hold on much longer!
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 ✅ Closed $DOT long 20x
Entry: 1.0480 → Exit: 1.1019
Result: +101% ROE
I post every entry and exit, both profits and losses. Do you currently hold $DOT?
Not investment advice.$ETH has recently experienced consecutive declines, with the price falling back from above $2700 to a low near $2408, indicating a significant strengthening of bearish forces. After continuous drops, there is a short-term technical rebound demand, but no clear trend reversal signal has appeared yet, so attention should still be paid to the performance of key support levels.
On the support side, focus first on the $2400–$2420 range. If the price can stabilize here, a technical rebound is likely, with rebound targets around $2500–$2550; if $2400 is effectively broken, further declines toward $2300–$2350 should be watched for. On the resistance side, key levels to watch are $2500–$2550, followed by $2580–$2600. Only if the price firmly stands above $2600 can the short-term trend gradually recover.
On the news front, factors such as a stronger US dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and outflows from Ethereum spot ETFs have all suppressed market risk appetite.
Overall, ETH is currently in a weak consolidation phase after a sharp decline, with a short-term bearish bias. If a clear stop-loss signal appears near $2400, rebound opportunities can be considered; if the rebound continues to be pressured around $2500–$2550, a secondary bottom test should be guarded against. It is not advisable to blindly bottom-fish or chase shorts; focus on the strength of support levels and whether the rebound is accompanied by increased trading volume.Uncle's Morning Report｜10.9 (Friday) One-sentence summary Overnight US stocks diverged, Dow slightly up, Nasdaq down 1.25%, semiconductor sector down about 3.4%. Brent crude rose about 4.1% to $104.28, supply risks reigniting inflation concerns. BTC fell below 82K, back near 81K. A-shares dropped with volume on the first trading day after the holiday; today focus on support around 3800 points and whether tech stocks can stop falling. 🪙 Crypto BTC around $81,200, ETH around $2,470, both under pressure. BTC previously fell below 82K, no clear short-term stabilization signal yet. Uncle's observation: Whether it can stop falling near 81K is a short-term watch point; 80K is the next observation range. Before oil prices and interest rate pressures ease, do not judge trend reversal based on small rebounds alone. 🇺🇸 US Stock Review Dow up 0.10% to 51,231.64; S&P 500 down 0.47% to 7,765.36; Nasdaq down 1.25% to 27,193.34. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down about 3.4%. Intel down over 5%, Nvidia down nearly 3%, Micron, Broadcom and other chip stocks noticeably retreated. Uncle's observation: The three major indexes did not all fall; traditional blue chips relatively resisted, tech growth under pressure. Rising oil prices and yield fluctuations, plus valuation and financing concerns in the AI industry chain, jointly suppress the chip sector. 🇨🇳 A-shares pre-market On the first day after the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.79% to 3,811.90; Shenzhen Component Index$BTC really took a heavy hit this time. The daily MA5/10/20 triple defense lines have all been broken through, and the current price hovers around 81700, with the mid-term trend severely damaged.
📊 Market overview and strategy:
🔴 Full pressure: From 4-hour to 1-hour charts, all show bearish alignment. The strong resistance lies between 82000-82200; resistance here is a high shorting opportunity, with targets at 81000-80000.
🟢 Defensive bottom line: The intraday defense is at 80400, and any light position rebound bets must strictly set stop-loss at 79800.
⚠️ Strictly avoid bottom-fishing: The daily chart has consecutive bearish closes. In the early stage of the breakdown and under the backdrop of tightening regulation (Tornado case), any positive news may become a tool for a bull trap and distribution.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ News of easing in US-Iran negotiations, but oil prices and rate hike pressures remain.
This morning the market is hearing two different voices simultaneously. On one side, Trump said there will be no attack on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, and US-Iran negotiations are still progressing. On the other side, St. Louis Fed's Mouselim believes further rate hikes may be needed in the next 6 to 9 months.
This indicates that military risks have eased temporarily, but it does not mean inflation and interest rate pressures have disappeared. Brent crude remains around $104, and high oil prices make it harder to cool inflation. Looking at funds, on the US trading day of October 7, BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $484.9 million. Fund momentum is weak, and market confidence is poor.
$BTC: Today, first see if it can return to and hold above 82,000; below that I look at 80,400, and if that breaks, then 80,000.
$ETH: First see if 2,500 can be reclaimed; below that watch 2,406–2,400, and if not held, no rush to be bullish.
$SOL: Stay cautious before holding above 110; below that look at 105.7, and if broken, no rush to bottom-fish.
At 10 PM tonight, there will be the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and the preliminary one-year inflation expectations. If the latter continues to rise, market concerns about further rate hikes may increase.
Progress in negotiations is certainly good.
I hope to see oil prices come down and buying interest return. Today, a bit more patience, a bit less haste; I hope everyone can keep steady, and keep the profits earned in their accounts. $PONS repurchased 30% of the shares, but the coin price hit a new low, indicating that the coin market lacks logic pons
Still confirmed my thoughts
Up 5 points down 10 points
Currently has already been digested by major mainstream exchanges
This positive news
Plus the continuous sluggish income from the pons protocol
And the community's concerns about the buyback mechanism (currently manual)
As well as on-chain liquidity tightening
I still don't look favorably on the follow-up
One of my floating profits has also reached a position of 30,000u
Continue to be bearish
$ETH $ZEC $PONS
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 I’m not worried at all about this round of Dogecoin correction; my long-term bullish view remains unchanged.
It fell from 0.098 down to around 0.081, dropping over 11% in 7 days. It’s normal to feel uneasy when your account numbers shrink. But when analyzing the market, you can’t just look at red and green. Today, the 1-hour candlestick stopped falling at 0.08108, the price bounced back above 0.084, and turned green again intraday. Buyers have been steadily absorbing sell orders at the lows. This kind of volume-shrinking dip followed by stabilization often signals a completed shakeout rather than a trend reversal.
I’m optimistic about $DOGE and never base my view on a single candlestick. Its consensus, community, and payment use cases have been built up bit by bit over more than a decade; they won’t disappear just because of a week’s correction. The 90-day cycle is still showing positive returns, indicating the medium-term foundation remains intact. Market articles are already discussing the golden cross and the $0.10 mark; sentiment hasn’t dissipated, and capital hasn’t fled.
This brief pullback washes out the weak hands and leaves the true believers. I’ve experienced deeper drawdowns than this, and every time in hindsight, it was a window to buy in or add to positions. Hold on; don’t let momentary volatility make decisions for you. $0.10 is not the end, just the next stop.Morning.
$ETH bounced back from 2406 to 2479 this morning, up 1.8%, a breather after two days of decline.
But don’t get too happy yet, it’s already down 8% over 7 days, dropping from the high of 2778, with a max drop of nearly 370 bucks. MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing down from above; one bullish candle doesn’t mean a reversal.
$BTC is similar, yesterday it touched a low of 82163, now hovering around 83000.
There’s a big event today—22,000 BTC options expiring, with a notional value of 2.16 billion dollars, and ETH has 123,000 contracts. Days like this are usually turbulent, either a dump then a pump to harvest, or a direct pump to blow out shorts.
A brother in the group had a 2600 ETH short, didn’t exit at 2406, now back at 2480 and floating at a loss.
He said he’ll wait until tomorrow, won’t close unless it drops below 2400.
What do you think, will today’s settlement dump first then pump, or just pump straight up???This wave of movement fully fulfilled the previous prediction, with the price dipping to the 80400 support before rebounding, currently at 81786. On the 4-hour chart, the MA5 has already flattened, indicating a brief release of short-term bearish pressure, but MA10 and MA20 still press from above, so the overall trend remains weak. The volume of this rebound is not particularly strong; it is a corrective rebound after a decline, not a reversal.
80400 is the current core support, and the first resistance above is the MA10 at 82485.
Here's a question for you: If the price rushes to 82485 but the volume can't keep up, what is most likely to happen? $BTC Right now, the market situation is that those who are long dare not be too long, and those who are short dare not be too short.
In just two days, the second largest coin dropped more than 10 points, and altcoins also plummeted simultaneously.
But my feeling is that this is a big shakeout before a rally. It looks fierce, but the volume hasn't dropped much.
In this market, most people use high leverage and trade frequently and quickly. At the same time, most are not high V. The high interest and funding rates brought by high leverage are enough to wipe out 90% of traders. During the process of frequent short-term trades, the volatility of chosen coins' swings causes stop losses and forced liquidations.
This market never lacks opportunities. Buying well is a skill, position control is the profit point, and holding on to sell well is the realization of gains.
I often make the above mistakes myself. Respect to myself, and encouragement to all. 80351 This low point is not the bottom
After $BTC dropped to 80351, there was a wave of concentrated position reductions.
New entrants tend to mistake the spike as a bottom signal.
Where did this money come from:
At the moment of the spike, leveraged positions were forcibly sold by the system.
Sell orders piled up, and the price was instantly hammered down.
How is this number calculated:
80351 is the lowest transaction price caused by the spike.
No one actively bottomed at this price level.
Who is connected:
After the forced liquidations exited, selling pressure decreased.
Stop-loss orders hanging in that range have already been swept away.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC Stop guessing blindly, the root cause of this $BTC $ETH drop is not the Federal Reserve at all.
From 87,000 down to 81,000, it looks like a macro bearish pullback, but in essence, it's a precise chopping of retail traders.
The market is flooded with four bearish factors: US Treasury yields breaking 5.25%, BTC ETF outflows for six consecutive weeks, crude oil surging to 107, and capital diversion in the AI sector.
Each factor alone makes sense, but these bearish factors have long been present in the market and are not new news. Why did the sharp drop only concentrate around the 87,000 level? Simply put, this price level was suitable for action.
Look at two very unusual sets of data:
First, in the three days before the crash at 87,000, long positions rapidly accumulated in the 85,000–87,000 range, with many retail traders opening 3 to 5 times leverage longs.
Second, in the 48 hours after the drop, whale wallets aggressively bought between 81,000 and 82,000, accumulating about 12,000 BTC, worth nearly 1 billion USD.
In short: the main players smashed the market near 87,000 to create panic, blew up leveraged positions around 82,000, forcing retail traders to cut losses, then quietly collected these sold chips at 81,000.
This is not a natural market downturn; it is a typical harvesting move.
As long as there are enough leveraged longs piled up at the top, the cost of smashing the market is far lower than the cost of accumulating at the bottom. Those holding spot and long positions are making profits and are reluctant to exit, believing it will behave like previous times by dipping into the red before rallying, thinking it won't fall further. How did the macro trio (crude oil, US-Iran, gold) transmit to last night's BTC?
Crude Oil (Oil) and US-Iran Talks: The "Master Switch" of Inflation Expectations
What happened: The US-Iran talks continue to negotiate over the Strait of Hormuz passage rights, enriched uranium, and ceasefire conditions. When the market fluctuated between "progress in talks" and "deadlock in talks," crude oil prices experienced violent swings.
Crude oil surged, raising inflation expectations, increasing the probability that the Fed will maintain high interest rates or even pause rate cuts. US Treasury yields/USD Index (DXY) soared. Risk assets (US stocks and BTC) were pressured and fell.
The macro panorama of last night's drop to $80,000+ and this morning's rebound to $81,800: The cause of last night's sharp drop (downward resonance):
US-Iran talks fell into deadlock/negotiation tug-of-war, crude oil prices rose triggering inflation concerns. US stocks opened sharply lower, US Treasury yields strengthened, risk-off sentiment suppressed BTC below $83,000, triggering a chain liquidation of crypto derivatives longs, instantly piercing down to $80,000. The cause of this morning's rebound (sentiment repair): Official statements from Trump and others and renewed market digestion of talk signals. Crude oil met resistance at short-term highs, panic sentiment eased. Gold's decline stabilized, funds began seeking oversold rebound targets from the sharp drop. After risk-off sentiment cooled, spot bottom-fishing led BTC to rise back to $81,800.
$$BTC Hello everyone, I'm back to report the battle situation. Today the account mainly shows a "lush green".
BTC 20x long position, -18% return hanging at the mountaintop in the wind, margin still has 276U, the liquidation price is far away, planning to play dead for now.
SOL 3x long position, about -8%, overall the account looks a bit uncomfortable, but as long as it hasn't liquidated, there's hope.
DOGE 20x long position is quite stable, -0.17% basically hovering near the cost line, neither painful nor itchy.
Summary: Long positions got beaten by the market, the only comfort is that the liquidation price is still far away. The survival rule in the crypto world: as long as I don't sell, I haven't lost (self-comforting). Continuing to watch the market tonight, hoping for a rebound!
#比特币BIP-110分叉停滞，矿工支持不足 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 From the $BTC 4-hour structure perspective, the current market shows a clear bearish trend, with highs continuously moving lower, overall presenting a stepped downward pattern. After a large bearish candle previously dropped to around 80300, there was a brief halt in the decline, but the subsequent rebound candles had very small bodies, indicating a serious lack of buying support, which is a typical bearish continuation pattern. The 83000 level above has turned from support into strong resistance. In terms of operation, it is recommended to short on rallies near 82100-82600, with targets looking down to 80000-795000. The main strategy is to follow the trend and short, with strict risk control to guard against oversold rebounds.
$ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 [Comeback Story 2] A Bloody Lesson!
At first, I planned to proceed steadily, but after just a few days, I was forcibly liquidated again. This might be a common issue in contract trading. I thought it over all night and reviewed my trading, summarizing it in a few sentences:
1. Set stop-losses! No matter how confident you are about the market trend, risk control is essential. Usually, what you think is confidence is actually the root and sign of failure. Don't be blindly arrogant; always set stop-losses.
2. Give up decisively! When the market trend has changed, you must follow the rules and cut losses decisively. This forced liquidation was on mainstream altcoins. When I opened the position, I analyzed the trend using Bollinger Bands, EMA, MACD, RDJ, etc., all predicting an upward trend, so I entered decisively. But within a few hours, the trend reversed and kept falling, with occasional pullbacks that were just illusions. Unfortunately, when the pullback reached near break-even, I failed to exit properly, and what awaited me was a steady decline.
3. No funds, no mainstream! I have been trading contracts for one or two years, experiencing 100x profits and instant liquidations. Looking back, the coins that actually made money were these altcoins. The so-called big and second coins are actually manipulated even more fiercely than altcoins. So personally, I think retail investors without substantial funds are better suited for altcoins. This doesn't mean mainstream coins are bad; historically, big and second coins have been strong coins that still rose through major bear markets, which is evident. But they require huge capital to withstand these bear markets, which is too difficult for ordinary people.
The above is purely my personal opinion, a reminder to myself of this lesson! Not investment advice. After the needle drop, the market fell silent.
Last night, $BTC plunged from above 86000 to 82300 within minutes, with trading volume exploding instantly. Just a few days ago, people were shouting about 100,000 and millions, but now they're staring blankly at the liquidation line. Leverage is like wings when prices rise, but a noose when they fall.
$ETH broke below 2560, dropping nearly 5% intraday, directly breaking through the consolidation zone that lasted half a month. If 2600 can't be reclaimed, it's all talk; if 2540 is lost, 2520 is in sight.
$ZEC is even more brutal. At a price of 1240, it has dropped more than 20% from the previous high of 1700. 1320 has turned into resistance; only by reclaiming 1400 can a reversal be discussed; below, 1280 is the last line of defense. My 1400 position is stuck in the middle, caught in a dilemma.
But don't rush to cheer.
The real battlefield isn't how much it fell today, but whether BTC can stand back above 84000 or 85000. If it can't recover, any rebound is just a gift to the shorts.
The market neither sympathizes with tears nor rewards fanaticism. After the needle drop, only those who survive have the right to talk about tomorrow.
Personal opinion, not investment advice
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC BTC 1-hour K, current price 81687, rebounding and recovering from the low of 80351.
Above the short-term moving average, MACD red bars expanding, KDJ's J at 89 approaching overbought, with risk of a pullback.
Resistance at 82055, strong resistance at 82439; support at 81453, bottom at 80351.
This is a rebound after a decline, the trend has not reversed.
For long positions near 82055, prioritize reducing holdings, with defense at 81453;
If no position, do not chase longs at the current price, wait for resistance to stall before looking for short opportunities.
- Moving averages: MA5=81741, MA10=81453, price is above short-term moving averages; MA20 and MA30 above at 82055 and 82413 forming resistance, Supertrend resistance at 82439.7, the key level for this rebound.
Indicator breakdown
1. KDJ: K65.4, D53.7, J89.0, J value rising rapidly, about to enter overbought zone, short-term pullback adjustment possible at any time.
2. RSI6: 46.6, in neutral zone, not yet at strong overbought 70, bulls have slight remaining strength but not strong.
3. MACD: DIFF and DEA still below zero line, red bars expanding, indicating a rebound repair within a downtrend, not a trend reversal to an uptrend.SUI
Current price 1.0447, slight rebound after a sharp drop.
Resistance levels: 1.0532, strong resistance above at 1.0895;
Support level: 0.9971, the low point of this round.
News: Hashi mainnet gradually launching this month
5 billion capital committed
Recovery rally after a large bearish candle
To strengthen, it needs to hold above 1.05
Breaking below 0.997 likely leads to further decline
High volatility, set stop-loss properly!
$ETH $ZEC $SUI
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049 "The President Calls for a Cut, the Fed Raises, Whom to Listen To?"
Trump is at odds with the Federal Reserve. He says except for Warsh, other governors hope the economy worsens and that rates should be cut. Treasury Secretary Becerra is even more amusing, saying once Iran finishes its energy conflict, inflation will come down and rates will naturally fall. It sounds positive, but the September minutes show all 19 members unanimously raised rates to 4%, with most believing another hike is needed before year-end.
The President calls for rate cuts, the Fed is raising rates—who has the final say? The market votes with its feet: BTC bottomed at 82,200 with no rise; gold broke 4,100, silver broke 60. The expectation of rate cuts is distant water, unable to extinguish the immediate fire. No one knows when Iran will finish its conflict, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains high.
I've held a short position at 79,388 for nearly a month; the direction seems wrong, so I hedged. It's not admitting defeat, just not wanting to stubbornly hold on. When the trend is unclear, locking positions is better than stubbornly holding. I'll unlock when the signal is clear.
$BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
Personal operation only, not investment advice.$BTC Today I estimate the trend as shown in the chart:
The 4-hour sell-off volume is getting larger and larger, with some buyers at 80400, temporarily stabilizing the market. Last night I placed an order at 79164 but it didn't get filled, however, I have already bought 100k in spot.
I estimate the market will range between 80400-81000 today, forming a box. The 4-hour MACD still shows a rebound trend, it depends on how the whales choose to act. The 3-day candlestick looks precarious, just one MACD step away from a death cross, so I will keep observing!
$ETH is dumping and weak like diarrhea, but interestingly some altcoins haven't dropped much and didn't follow the decline. Don't touch them in the near term. If the main coins break their range, none of them will escape!
$xSPCX I've talked about US stocks many times, analyzed it since around 120. Among the high positions, it has the least risk and a great narrative. I think anything below 130 is worth buying. Don't chase it recently; wait for the big unlock later to see if it will dump and pull back!Woke up to losses
Bitcoin and Ethereum led another sell-off. Bitcoin fell below 82,000,
$ETH Ethereum was even harsher, dropping directly to around 2,470. The market has been crashing terribly these days,
altcoins all plunged along, liquidations everywhere, market sentiment is just unbearable to watch, a typical bull market sharp correction, the shakeout is nerve-wracking.
Yesterday all altcoins were falling, especially $ZEC. It initially dropped 8%, then 10%, then 15%. Seeing this, I impulsively shorted. This morning I checked,
Damn, the market actually rebounded! Ethereum didn’t continue to fall as expected, ZEC instead rose 7%, and I immediately lost 6U cutting losses. But the more I thought about it, the angrier I got, so I opened another short at a high price, hoping this time it would be right.
Speaking of RAY, I held a long position in RAY, with unrealized profit dropping from 38U to 28U, but I kept holding. In the afternoon, Ethereum continued to fall, RAY’s profit rose to over 20U, so I sold 25%. By evening, Ethereum dropped 5% directly, I couldn’t hold on and closed all my RAY positions, really kicking myself.
Yesterday I also shorted $MET, luckily no big rebound happened, now with an unrealized profit of 3U, I plan to keep holding. I feel altcoins will always go to zero eventually, I just want to hold on and endure their gains.
Keep it up, genius traders, believe in the power of belief! Event: Encryption security experts have just issued a red alert, calling on Bitcoin holders to switch to "bunker mode" (shelter mode). The reason is the breakthrough progress of AI and quantum computing directly threatening more than 6 million BTC stored in wallets with exposed Public Keys. Detailed analysis notes: Technical nature (Elliptic Curve Cryptography): When you send BTC, the wallet's Public Key is permanently recorded on the chain. In theory, from the Public Key it is impossible to decode n$PUMP is really a chump's fate. I didn't hold the short at the 0.0066 high point yesterday, otherwise I would have profited. Later I got shaken out, didn't even get a bite, couldn't hold the short during the drop, and then went to bottom-fish with longs and lost money. From the current view, pump just broke the four-hour level, and there's still room to fall. Missed the meat yesterday, can I get some broth today? 😂😂早上看了一圈市场。 熟悉的画面还在继续： BTC约8.14万美元 ETH约2440美元 SOL约108美元 而且山寨整体明显比BTC跌得更狠。 不过今天早上我觉得不能只看K线。 一边是风险资产继续承压， 另一边是传统金融进入Crypto的动作还在继续。 简单整理几个值得看的消息。 1️⃣ BTC为什么还是弱？ 目前最大的压力，我觉得依然来自宏观。 昨天美股： 标普500跌约0.5% 纳斯达克跌约1.3% 美国10年期国债收益率一度冲到5.3%以上，后来回落到约5.23%。 同时布伦特原油仍在： 100美元以上。 这几个东西放在一起，对加密都不算友好。 简单理解： 油价高 → 通胀压力增加 通胀高 → 利率更难下来 美债收益率高 → 资金更愿意拿低风险收益 风险资产自然容易承压。 所以最近BTC跌，并不完全是Crypto内部出了什么问题。 2️⃣ ETF资金最近也确实在撤 目前最新完整数据里， 10月7日美国现货BTC ETF净流出： 4.849亿美元 其中BlackRock IBIT单日流出约： 2.077亿美元。 ETH ETF当天也净流出约： 1.609亿美元。 这个数据其实挺重要Brothers, last night's drop was not an ordinary correction, but a real round of leverage liquidation.
BTC dipped as low as 80344, ETH hit 2405, and SOL was crushed down to 105.6. After key supports were consecutively broken, stop-loss orders, liquidation orders, and quant sell orders all triggered together, causing the market to waterfall instantly.
Today's rebound does have some support, but don't rush to call a reversal yet.
BTC has returned above 81,000, ETH has bounced back near 2470, but the rebound volume hasn't yet surpassed last night's decline volume. This indicates that currently it's more of an oversold recovery and short covering, with no clear inflow of new funds yet.
My approach is simple:
Wait for BTC to firmly hold 82300–82500, ETH to hold above 2500 and not break on pullback, then consider going long with the trend.
For a more aggressive approach, wait for BTC to pull back near 81100 and ETH near 2450 with support, then try a light long position.
Don't chase shorts at low levels; wait for BTC to rebound to 82300–82600 and ETH to 2500–2520 with clear resistance before considering shorting.
If 80300 and 2400 are broken again, last night's lows might just be a downward continuation, not the bottom.
Right now, the most valuable thing is not direction, but patience.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 Long positions set up at 00:33 last night, now exited
The 2500 take profit order is no longer fixed, short-term longs lack a clear pattern
Before the market stabilizes, still following the original plan (take some profit at key points and then exit) $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Today's market is interesting. After $BTC plunged from a high, it pulled back a bit. All three positions in the account are green, both shorts and longs are making money.
$BTC: [Long position turns positive, testing patience]
Entry price 81139.955, current price 81861.76, isolated 20X, margin 731.88U, unrealized profit 130.54U, ROI 17.83%.
The newly opened long position finally turned positive today, entering basically near the cost line, now slowly moving up.
$DOGE: [Short position main force, the happiest in the market]
Entry price 0.0881177, current price 0.0845836, isolated 20X, margin 170.98U, unrealized profit 137.1U, ROI 80.20%.
This position has been pushing down all the way, with 20X leverage the profit is already quite considerable. Keep holding the short.
$XRP: [Profit retracement, take-profit dilemma]
Entry price 1.4107, current price 1.3857, isolated 20X, margin 412.65U, unrealized profit 146.22U, ROI 35.44%.
This position once surged to an 87% return. Today, the $BTC rebound drove altcoins to recover, cutting the profit directly in half to 35%. The meat that was about to be eaten flew away; saying it’s not a pity would be a lie. But looking back, not taking profit at the high point is my own fault, can’t blame the market.
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ #跟着OKX打卡2049 #三星钱包将上线USDC跨境转账 ETH long-short ratio soars above 70%, this market looks a bit bloody 📉🩸
ETH crashed from 2724 down to 2567, a big bearish candle on the daily chart, breaking through MA5, MA10, and MA20, with the MACD death cross widening. The market can be summed up in two words: weak. 💥
What about the contract long-short ratio? Bulls at 70.47%, bears at 29.53%, long-short ratio 2.39. It just dropped a bit, and bottom-fishers have already crowded in. 🐻
At times like this, will the main force kindly pull it back? Without washing out the bulls, the market won’t easily turn around. 🪤
So some ask: why not take profits yet?
I’m really not in a hurry at this level. If it dares to rebound, I’d consider adding short positions; if it struggles to rally, I’ll lightly try shorting, targeting 2500 first, and if it breaks that, then 2400. 🎯
Remember: don’t overleverage, always use stop-loss. Same goes for BTC and ZEC, first watch the sentiment, then talk about direction. ⚠️
Personal review, not investment advice.Altcoins haven't finished falling in this round yet. The total market cap dropped 5.12% in one day, down to 2.77 trillion USD, with $BTC only down 1.92% at 81,724, accounting for 59.07%. The extra drop is all on altcoins, with $ETH down 3.82%, $SOL down 6.25% at 109.18.
The heaviest drop is $NEAR, down 16.73%, with a trading volume of 1.54 billion USD and a turnover rate of 26.43%, indicating a volume-driven decline. DeFi tokens are all falling: $CRV down 13.74%, LDO down 12.6%.
WatcherGuru reports that the US government transferred over 1 billion USD worth of Bitcoin seized from the Bitfinex case to an unknown wallet. BTC itself hasn't moved much; the first to be cut were altcoins.
On contracts, CTSI has a fee rate of -0.39%, and after the negative fee rate, the price tends to continue falling.
In the next 48 hours, altcoins will continue to underperform BTC. Conditions for a bullish reversal: BTC's dominance drops from 59.07% and turns downward, while ETH holds above 2475.64. Last night Bitcoin reached the second support level at 80,000, with a low wick down to 80,330. Will it continue to rise or fall next? My view is that Bitcoin's previous increase was over 40%, so a normal correction of about 15% to 20% is also very normal. Therefore, when Bitcoin drops to around 75,000, don't be surprised; it could even go lower. Let's wait and see.Five years ago, Elon Musk proposed an upgrade prescription for Dogecoin, and now someone has actually turned it into a product. In 2021, he suggested: increase speed by ten times, expand block size by ten times, and reduce fees by a hundred times, making DOGE suitable for global payments. This week, Metallicus CEO and Dogecoin Foundation board member Marshall Hayner announced the launch of the DogecoinVM Alpha version on the Metal Blockchain mainnet, with transaction confirmation times reduced to 0.15 to 0.25 seconds, 300 times faster than the main chain. His exact words were: "We achieved 300 times faster."
The cleverness of this approach lies in not altering the original chain. The team did not change the Dogecoin core protocol nor issue new coins, but instead built a parallel proof-of-stake layer: DOGE is locked on the mainnet and mapped 1:1 into the new layer, with old wallets and private keys still usable, and the UTXO model fully preserved. The upgrade happens underneath, so holders don’t need to move their coins.
However, this is just the first half. The Alpha version has a single deposit limit of 100 $DOGE, the code is open source but has not yet undergone independent auditing, and the team is pushing for bank-grade security certification, targeting fintech and institutional payment scenarios. The vision has taken its first step; its quality depends on auditing, capacity, and the pace of real-world application deployment.The rebar inside this load-bearing wall is about to snap. Who gave you the nerve to catch the falling precast slabs with bare hands now? 🏗️
Just got down from the scaffolding, wiped the cement dust off my face, and took a look at the $SOL chart. The price dropped to around 109.05, the 1-hour RSI fell to 34.9, and the lower Bollinger Band is at 105.86. The whole building is shaking like it just hit a magnitude 5 aftershock. Honestly, the foundation is too weak; you can't tell if the main force is trying to cap it off or planning to demolish and rebuild.
The direction is completely unclear, but the wages in my hand can't go to waste. Betting one-sided at this time is like standing on a suspended basket without a safety rope, so I choose to build scaffolding on both sides—locking long and short positions at the same leverage to hedge. The longs catch the oversold rebound of the foundation, and the shorts guard against the beams and columns breaking and crashing through the basement. Both sides are secured tightly; no one can blow my position.
Let's see which side holds first. If it can firmly hold 106 and re-grout to build a bottom, I'll release the short position lock and let the longs be pulled up by the crane; if the foundation collapses along with the settlement cracks, I'll cut the longs and let the shorts smash through by gravity.
- Target: $SOL 🟢
- Entry: 107.50 - 109.50
- TP1: 114.00
- TP2: 117.10
- SL: 104.50
Now it's just a matter of whether this load-bearing column can withstand the falling weight. Two trowels are already set up; whichever side collapses, we'll patch it up there. 🧱
#CoinMoveAlertHas $BTC made a bullish reversal?
Big BTC, ETH, ZEC
This wave of decline has released huge profit pressure from the bulls.
If it can rebound and stabilize now,
there might be a chance for a new rally.
If it can't hold, then it's trouble, just admit the mistake and stop loss.
Although it's a big loss, it's a small step forward in the pattern,
loss means no adding positions,
if positions were added, it would have already blown up.
In the future, if there's a loss and the thought of adding positions arises,
immediately clear the position, this move should be correct.#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Midnight waterfall! BTC breaks below 83,000, bulls suffer heavy losses, defense points here! Brothers, this late-night sharp drop is quite brutal. BTC directly fell below 83,000, with a low wick near 81,200; over $550 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated within 24 hours, mainly hitting longs. The core reasons for this plunge are three words: oil, bonds, hawks. Middle East tensions pushed oil prices back above $102, US Treasury yields surged to a 24-year high, and the Fed minutes leaned hawkish, putting risk assets under broad pressure. Key levels: resistance above at 83,400-83,900; failure to reclaim this on a rebound signals weakness. Defensive support first looks at 82,150-82,300, the last short-term line of defense; a decisive break likely leads to the 80,000 psychological level. Spot order books show thick buy orders in the 79,000-83,000 range, with no obvious signs of panic selling; a sharp drop to this range might actually find support. #BitcoinCrash #BTCsupport #FedRateHike #MiddleEastTensions #CryptoLiquidationScumbag observation on SPCX update 10.9
Big Rocket US stock closed at 160.57, down 4.19%, intraday high 167.60, low 16.00
Continuing from last time, after Big Rocket failed to hold the 5-day moving average, it went down to seek support at the 10-day moving average. From the candlestick chart in Figure 3, it is clear that it hit the 10-day moving average and is currently slightly rebounding.
Since US stocks and others are now on-chain, Scumbag will combine on-chain data to analyze stocks going forward.
There was news after the market that
SpaceX has reached an agreement to obtain nationwide 800 MHz spectrum, which will enable Starlink Mobile to provide better indoor coverage, including signals that can penetrate walls and other obstacles.
Currently, it appears to be within the US, but global deployment including Europe, South America, Africa, Asia, Antarctica, the Arctic, and the major oceans cannot be ruled out. The signal arrives before people do—amazing. Just imagine when the days of going abroad and changing SIM cards will finally end.
Of course, Scumbag is optimistic about Big Rocket in the short term until before the Q3 earnings report. If the stock price breaks 200 before the Q3 report, Scumbag will reduce the position in this stock to below 50%.Don't rush to say, "If stablecoin trading volume increases, it's the bull market back." This time it feels more like a quiet repricing 🌙. Have you noticed? The path of money turnover on-chain is actually quite different from last month? Looking at the 24-hour increase in stablecoin trading volume on DEXs, my first reaction wasn't excitement, but a bit of surprise. Uniswap's two versions combined increased by $910.9 million, with V4 alone adding +555.8 million and V3 adding 355.1 million, accounting for over 60%. This number itself isn't surprising; what's strange is its location—the most "honest" stablecoin pair on-chain—suddenly becoming the busiest place. Don't simply interpret it as a deposit signal. Stablecoin trading volume may be due to position swapping, or possibly swapping positions into U before exiting. The key point is that this increase is concentrated on Uniswap, not fully blooming. Fluid DEX surged to third place with +94.5 million, indicating it has its own loyal customer base in stablecoin pairs. PancakeSwap's two versions combined +90.7 million, showing the effects of the multi-chain strategy. Hyperliquid's stablecoin transactions also increased by +49.6 million. A perpetual contract platform reaching into spot settlement is more worth watching than the numbers themselves. So what exactly is the market trading? My understanding is that everyone is preemptively repricing the "on-chain dollar channel." As a governance token, UNI may not directly benefit from trading volume in the short term, but fee switching is expected to be repeatedly discussed. HYPE, as wellCore DAO proactively withdrawing its validator nodes can be interpreted in two completely different ways: whether it voluntarily delinks and exits the validator set or is just a temporary shutdown. 1. The ideal interpretation: Decentralization (positive narrative) The Core network has only 31 active validator nodes in total. - The foundation proactively exits its its official validator nodes, no longer monopolizing validator seats, and hands over block production rights to third-party community validators. - This means the project team no longer controls the network, weakening the foundation's control over the chain, aligning with the goal of decentralization of public chains. - This is a routine practice for many public chains in the later stages and does not mean the chain is about to run away. But here's a key point: although official nodes exit, if a large number of staking orders remain concentrated in the hands of a few top validators, the network remains highly centralized, with control simply transferred from the project team to a few large players. 2. Negative Signals to Watch Out For (Market Concern) If the core official validator node suddenly withdraws without prior announcement, the market generally interprets it as the following issues. 1. Project team operations and maintenance contraction and budget cuts Running validator nodes requires ongoing server and operational labor costs. - Token prices remain sluggish, ecosystem revenue falls short of expectations, teams cut expenses and no longer bear validator costs. - This indicates that project teams are unwilling to continue investing in maintaining this chain, signaling weakening fundamentals. 2. Lack of team confidence Every time I open a position, as long as I'm not analyzing rationally at that moment, sometimes it’s very accurate, sometimes it’s not. One mistake can lead to irreversible disaster. Sometimes being too rational makes me timid, causing me to miss many opportunities. The market is like a mirror that always reveals my character flaws, leading to repeated mistakes, profits turning into losses, and losses turning into profits. In the end, it all ends in failure. For example, the highest short position on ZEC during that period—I even added to the position during the rebound. Later, it was inexplicably closed out. It's hard to maintain constant calm and rational market analysis. Maybe this is due to my personality, lacking patience in handling things. Since I stopped using high leverage, my control over greed and fear has improved a lot compared to before. I can also keep a stable mindset during volatility. It seems the road ahead is still long. I will keep working hard 💪 and maintain respect for the market. I approach life with the same mindset as the market. I believe that one day I will succeed.ZEC
Current price 1183.56, a strong rebound after a sharp drop.
Resistance levels: 1237.98, strong resistance above at 1289;
Support levels: 1111.30, the lifeline low of this round.
Grayscale ETF continues to see capital outflows, negative news persists
This is a rebound after overselling, don’t take it directly as a reversal
Focus on whether 1238 can be broken through, only if 1111 holds below is there a chance for continued rebound; if broken, it will test lower again.
$ZEC $ETH $CT
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？
#跟着OKX打卡2049