Orbit Post Sitemap
BTC four-hour close near the high point, old upper boundary awaiting pullback
The old upper boundary of BTC's range is entering a pullback observation phase. The 4H close from 08:00 to 12:00 is 82419.7 USDT, positioned at 98.6% of this window's amplitude, surpassing the previous window's high of 81944.9. Currently, only the upper close can be confirmed; whether the pullback can hold remains to be seen.
Volume increased from 429.61 BTC between 04:00 and 08:00 to 754.10 BTC, a 75.5% rebound, but still below the 3282.12 BTC from 00:00 to 04:00. Price is approaching this window's high, but volume recovery remains limited.
Next observation window fixed from 12:00 to 16:00: The 4H close at 16:00 must be above 82430.9 with volume exceeding 754.10 BTC to confirm continuation; if it closes below 81944.9, the upper support judgment fails. The continuation condition at 11:00 was already met; the standard not triggered at 09:00 remains unchanged.
If the 16:00 close falls below the old upper boundary, I will withdraw the support judgment; what closed evidence would you use to refute this?
Source: OKX spot BTC-USDT v5, confirm=1; as of October 9, 12:00 Beijing time. Price in USDT, volume in BTC bilateral transactions. Independent community, not investment advice.The big coin has crashed badly! It broke through the price channel and the 82,000 support level, just missing the 80,000 mark by a little bit. The pullback to around 80,333 activated buying near 80,000, so now there is a rebound. Why does a pullback near 80,000 cause a rebound? Because the 80,000 round number is a psychological support for retail investors, many of whom are trying to place long trades at this level, which is why the rebound occurs. However, this rebound is weak. Look at the volume circled in the red box below—there is almost no volume increase, and although there is a rebound, it has not broken through to return inside the price channel or above 82,000. So the current rebound is a low-volume rebound and not worth following. Is there a stop to the decline now? No, there is no stop to the decline. Until the price recovers and runs above 82,000, we cannot say the decline has stopped. Only when it recovers and runs above 82,000 can we consider the decline stopped and look for a rebound upward toward 83,523. If it cannot recover above 82,000, it will retest the previous low near 80,333 again. The hourly-level bullish trend circled in the big red box has already been broken. Because it broke below 82,000, it is now consolidating in the range circled in the small red box on the left, between 82,000 and 80,333. Before it recovers above 82,000, if the retest of the previous low at 80,333 holds, it will continue consolidating between 82,000 and 80,333. If it does not hold, it will head toward 78,778! You really want to bottom-fish and go long, right? Wait for it to break above 82,000 and retest without breaking below 82,000 before going long, or wait for it to break above 82,000 and retest withoutThe market has been sluggish these past few days, so I got up early this morning.
For what? To check the prospectus. On October 6th, a new SOL spot ETF started subscription in Hong Kong, code 2831, subscription ends on the 12th, and it is expected to be listed on October 13th. The issue price is between 7.8 and 8 Hong Kong dollars, with 100 shares per lot, and the entry fee is 800 HKD. This is the second SOL spot ETF in Hong Kong; the first one was only listed at the end of October last year, and now less than a year later, here comes another one.
What does this mean? It means that in a Hong Kong stock account, the process is the same as buying a stock: enter the code, click buy, and done. No wallet needed, no need to copy mnemonic phrases, even elderly people can learn it.
My second uncle is an example. He has been trading stocks for twenty years and has asked me eight times over the phone how to buy $SOL. Whenever I mention private keys, he hangs up. This time, I read the code to him, and he wrote it down on the calendar, saying he'll check it out on the 13th.
Of course, opening another door doesn't mean the price will necessarily go up. I was excited about this kind of news last year too, but the price still fell as expected.
But one more door is still one more door. My plan: hold the spot, keep dollar-cost averaging, and avoid leverage.🚨【October 8 ETH Review | Got slapped twice by the market and still didn’t dare to fight back】🔔
After a 5% drop on October 7, I thought there would finally be a technical rebound yesterday, right? 🤔 But yesterday it just crashed straight from 2587 down to 2406, without even a decent bounce in between—the market: "You say rebound, so rebound? I don’t care about saving face?" 😤
Honestly, after trading for so long, watching the candlesticks plunge one after another 📉, the "rational trader" in my head went offline, but my hands uncontrollably kept clicking buy—completely hooked, totally hooked 🤯
Looking back at yesterday’s moves, it boils down to four words: reckless and clueless 💀
Always thinking "It’s dropped so much, it should rebound now," always thinking "Buying more here is a sure win," but the market volume surged with a sell-off, all risky assets plunged together, even gold, silver, and oil fell, and US Treasury yields barely rose—this can’t be explained by technicals, it’s a macro risk appetite contraction overall, and I was catching flying knives with my own body 🔪
The only things to be grateful for:
✅ Thick enough safety cushion
✅ All low leverage, not wiped out by a single needle, saved my skin 🙏
✅ Didn’t stubbornly hold on to the end, survival is key 🌲
This time I got slapped hard by the market, and it woke me up. 👋
Trading is about always respecting the market. 🙇♂️
Going forward, I’ll stick to the rhythm: reduce on rebounds, exit on breakdowns, re-enter on pullbacks. Don’t try to make money beyond your control, keep positions light, and take small, slow steps 🐢 ⚔️ TIA 长线多单 · 作战计划 先给最关键的一个数字：现货 ATH 9.29（2024）→现价0.515，距高点 −94.5%。 这是一张"泡沫出清后重建"的底牌，不是追热点。 📊 周线结构（长线看这个） · 最近 8 周收线：0.359 → 0.355 → 0.381 → 0.342 → 0.460 → 0.442 → 0.472 → 0.515，四周连阳，台阶式抬升 · 周线 EMA7 0.4394>EMA140.4081，价格站上全部周均线；EMA30 $0.4512 正在被收复 · 周线 RSI 57 → 中性偏强，远没到过热，还有空间 · 周线 ATR 15.1% → 波动巨大，长线必须用现货/低杠杆 + 分批 ——买入理由（5 条，按权重排）—— 1️⃣ 估值重置：距 ATH −94%，筹码大清洗，上方套牢盘稀薄 2️⃣ 供应侧硬利好：10-30 核心贡献者解锁结束（占创世 17.64%）→ 每日解锁抛压下降，是实打实的边际改善，非悬崖式 3️⃣ 基本面兑现：Derive V3 接入 Celestia 做 DA（真集成）、V9 升级后日交易量 +102%、FibrZEC had a long bearish candle down to 1112 yesterday, and today’s rebound has no one daring to increase volume.
Yesterday’s low was 1112, the high touched 1347 but didn’t break through, closing at 1115. Today opened at 1115, the high was 1225, the low 1115, current price around 1219. Volume has shrunk.
The range 1225–1347 above remains resistance. If 1115 below breaks again, it’s easy to see 1112 first.
In the short term, watch if 1115 can hold. If it can’t hold, treat it as a rebound after a sharp drop for digestion, don’t chase at this price now. For those already holding, watch if 1115 can support; if not, reduce your position a bit. $ZEC $ADA has entered the oversold zone; a rebound and a bottom are two different things
$ADA is down 6.91% in 24 hours, currently priced at 0.2358. The 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are 35 and 21 respectively. Oversold conditions can trigger rebound demand, but a rebound only indicates a sharp drop; a bottom requires the price to stop breaking the structure.
Set emotions aside first; the information given by the structure is very specific. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 0.23791219, currently weak; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 0.2483449, also currently weak. The short-term cycle exposes changes, while the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of crowding; when they conflict, beware of oscillations. You can't just pick the side that benefits you.
The stronger side has a clear task: first, firmly hold above the 1-hour resistance at 0.2557, then observe whether the 4-hour resistance near 0.2824 can still maintain support. If it only briefly breaks through during the session and quickly returns to the range, the so-called breakout lacks the crucial latter half.$DOGE IS UP 16.28% OVER 90 DAYS BUT SITS BELOW EVERY WMA. DOGE/USDT trades 0.08513 on the daily, below WMA5 0.08745, WMA10 0.09021, WMA20 0.09243. Today's +1.28% follows a -8.40% week.
I don't trust bounces below every average. Which matters first: reclaiming WMA5 or holding the 24h low 0.08108?Before the weekend, will BTC first drop to 79,000 or forcefully rally back to 86,000?
Today's trading strategy is very clear: mainly short on rebounds, do not chase longs without volume to reclaim key levels.
$BTC is hovering around 81,800 now. After yesterday's hawkish minutes, it was slammed from 83,300 straight down to 80,400. This rebound now, honestly, is too weak to get excited about.
The problem isn't the candlestick itself. The 86,000 line hasn't even been touched by the wick. Long positions at high levels have been shaken out repeatedly, funding rates are falling slowly, and if no one picks up the slack over the weekend, it’s very easy to test previous lows again.
$ETH is around 2,480, moving in sync with BTC. It dropped from 2,570 to 2,406, and the high at 2,778 is getting further away.
What exactly happened in the news?
The Fed's September minutes showed all 19 officials unanimously supporting a rate hike, with most thinking another hike before year-end is appropriate. The probability of a rate hike in October has dropped to 20%, but expectations for a rate cut? Zero. The chance of a December hike remains around 60%.
What does this mean? The high interest rate environment continues to pressure non-yielding assets, with BTC taking the brunt.
There’s also a more hidden pressure—geopolitics. The White House has asked the Pentagon to prepare military options against Iran, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to a two-month low, Brent crude is at $101, WTI at $89, and energy prices remain firm amid inflation expectations.
Finally, leverage. Over $1.14 billion in futures positions were liquidated within 24 hours, wiping out about 140,000 accounts. This isn’t investors changing their minds; it’s forced liquidations.
A somewhat unusual signal
Funding rates have collectively turned negative. $BTC’s 8-hour average rate is about -0.0044%, and a major exchange’s rate dropped to -0.00215%, the lowest in nine months.
Translation: Shorts are paying longs now. Usually, bullish traders pay to maintain longs, but now it’s reversed.
However, the Fear & Greed Index remains between 59-63. Although greed has cooled, it’s far from fear.
The derivatives market has already priced in selling pressure that the spot market hasn’t fully digested yet. Leveraged traders are paying to short, while retail sentiment swings between "greed" and "neutral." This divergence either means shorts are overcrowded and a short squeeze could happen anytime, or the downtrend isn’t over yet. It’s not a directional signal by itself but warrants caution.
Today’s real variable
The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Previous was 48.1, market expects 47.6, just under 3 points from the historical low of 44.8. More importantly, inflation expectations have surged to 4.6% in September.
If the confidence data isn’t bad and US Treasury yields rise again, BTC could retest 80,400 or even look toward 79,000. If the data disappoints, there might be a short-term rebound, but without volume reclaiming 86,000, rebounds are just shorting opportunities.
Trading plan
BTC: Short between 83,000-84,500, target near 80,400-79,000.
ETH: Short between 2,520-2,580, target near 2,400-2,320.
Stop-loss rule: If BTC rallies with volume to reclaim 86,000, cancel shorts immediately, do not hold through.
If 81,000 is effectively broken down, the downside opens up, and 78,000-75,000 becomes the next discussion range.
---
One last question: Do you think BTC will first drop to 79,000 before the weekend, or directly rally with volume to reclaim 86,000? Discuss in the comments.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 The two words "buyback"—don’t rush to translate them as "price increase" yet.
$INJ poses a different question today: Who pays money, who delivers the coins?
Community buybacks involve participants handing over INJ in exchange for a proportionally allocated share of ecosystem revenue, with the coins handed over subsequently burned. The Stockdrop launched in September added the opportunity to earn stock token rewards.
Rewards can attract people, but whether it can be sustained depends on whether the revenue pool remains attractive enough. I’m more concerned about how much is actually burned each round. The event’s popularity is one thing; the strength of supply reduction is another.
$LINK follows a different path in this accounting.
Chainlink reserves convert business revenue into LINK and accumulate it; the coins remain but enter the reserve.
So no matter how long the list of partnerships is, you have to look one step further: Is there actual charging, and has the charging been converted into real purchases? This path is slower but more worth tracking than relying solely on a partnership headline.
$OKB has a fixed supply of 21 million tokens; this quantity question has been clearly answered. It is also the Gas token for the X Layer.
Next up is the usage question. More transactions and lower fees are good for users; to determine how much OKB is needed, two things must be considered together. Simply remembering "low total supply" makes it easy to oversimplify the price.
#OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资 (Er Bing) $ETH My view:
In the short term, I still lean towards a rebound. The morning star pattern isn't too bad, but there's constant pressure above 2500. If it can't break through 2505, don't expect it to be comfortable. On the hourly chart, it needs to firmly hold above 2505 to consider the downtrend temporarily halted; only then is there a chance to test the 2540 to 2580 range. If it can't hold, the rebound is basically fake.
Right now, it looks more like it's consolidating. It can't get above 2505, and the pullback hasn't broken 2450, so it keeps oscillating between these two levels. Once 2450 breaks, it will likely retest the previous low at 2405, which is hard to avoid.
If you want to go long, wait for a volume breakout above 2505 before considering entering on the right side. Set your stop loss at the pullback level after the breakout; if it can't hold, exit. If it pulls back near 2440 with a clear reaction, you can try a small position long, but if 2400 breaks, don't stubbornly hold on.
On the short side, if 2470 breaks down with volume and the rebound can't recover above it, you can short on the right side, but manage your stop carefully. You can also try shorting near 2540; if 2580 breaks, admit the mistake and exit.
A bit further left, if 2388 shows a wick, consider going long; if 2360 breaks, stop loss—don't get your hopes up.
A reminder on timeframes: only if the hourly chart holds above 2505 should you look at 2540-2580; if it doesn't hold, treat it as a fake move. If the 4-hour chart breaks 2470, then look down to 2440-2400.
Resistance: 2505, 2540, 2580
Support: 2470, 2440, 2400.After $BTC briefly broke below $82K and then pulled back, my bullish view from last night started to waver. As a bear, the break below $82K was not smooth; the bottom was repeatedly tested, and the position feels a bit weak now. This morning, I have already closed my short put options. I lean towards a liquidity hunt scenario, possibly with a pullback settling at this support level. The outlook is unclear; in a bull market, the priority is to avoid missing out, with avoiding a drop as a secondary concern.虽然 $BTC 持续走强，但推动本轮行情的主力，似乎仍然是现有持币者，而不是大规模新增资金。 🔍 三个关键市场信号： 🔹 已实现市值持续攀升：表明链上持币成本基础仍在变化，反映市场内部的资本活动。 🔹 新增资金流入放缓：来自比特币现货 ETF、稳定币市场以及企业财库的新增资金支持有所减弱，市场增量需求面临考验。 🔹 历史行情值得参考：2024 年和 2025 年的上涨阶段也曾出现类似现象，但当时新增资金流入规模明显更大。 🚀 接下来，真正值得关注的是什么？ 如果 ETF 资金重新转为持续净流入、稳定币流动性改善，同时企业财库继续增加 BTC 配置，那么本轮上涨将获得更扎实的需求支撑。 ⚠️ 反之，如果价格继续上涨，但新增资金迟迟没有跟进，行情可能更容易受到获利了结和市场波动的影响。 📌 核心观点： 现有持币者可以推动行情，但持续的新增资本才有机会为下一轮上涨提供更强动力。 你认为，接下来推动 $BTC 突破的关键会是 ETF 资金回流，还是市场内部的持币信心？ #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoMarket #BitcoinETF #资金流向 #加密市场 #链上数据Good afternoon brothers, I am a college student who dreams of becoming a genius trader.
ETH current price is 2492, at this stage it is just an oversold rebound after a big drop, 2498 is short-term resistance. Volume is insufficient, MACD red bars are weak, not a trend reversal, the market basically follows BTC.
In a volatile market, I love to get stopped out by sudden spikes, I have fallen into big traps before. When the market rallies, I chase orders impulsively, only thinking about breaking even, frequent operations get stopped out continuously, losing more and more.
Only after paying the tuition fee did I understand, no longer taking heavy positions to gamble, not chasing the rise or blindly bottom fishing, waiting quietly for clear signals before acting.
Contract risk is extremely high, controlling your hands is most important, reduce ineffective operations. #跟着OKX打卡2049 #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4%
Oil prices don't fall, so expectations for rate cuts are hard to ease; macro pressure remains, making BTC rebounds even harder.
If BTC wants to rise, it first has to watch oil prices.
Both the US and Iran say the Strait is still navigable,
but tanker attacks and reduced shipping volumes have forcibly pushed oil prices back above $100.
On October 8, Brent crude closed at $104.28, up about 4.1% in a single day.
Tanker attacks increased, visible shipping dropped to a temporary low,
combined with preventive production cuts caused by hurricanes in the US Gulf of Mexico, reigniting supply concerns.
This is not good news for the crypto market.
The higher the oil price, the harder it is for inflationary pressure to ease; if inflation doesn't come down, the Federal Reserve will find it harder to signal easing.
With rate expectations suppressed, capital naturally prefers caution, and high-volatility assets like BTC are easily reduced.
So now,
how much BTC falls in the short term is not the most important; whether oil prices prolong macro pressure is what really matters.
My judgment is that $BZ will mainly oscillate between 98-108 at a high level, and I don't recommend chasing the current price.
Next to watch:
Whether Brent can fall back below $100, and whether $BTC can stabilize amid selling pressure.
If oil prices remain high, BTC rebounds will be difficult; if oil prices fall and inflation pressure eases, risky assets will have a better chance to catch a breath.
Right now, BTC's opponent is not just the bears, but also a barrel of $100 oil.First, note the position of $STRK, then discuss the view: current price is 0.06864, about 29.65% away from the 1-hour support at 0.04829, and about 0.38% away from the resistance at 0.0689.
The higher $STRK rises, the more people fear missing out, but what is truly lacking at high levels is not hype, but support during pullbacks. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts are both relatively strong, with RSI at 66 and 76 respectively.
I only keep one confirmation for the upward trend — a breakout above 0.0689; and only one condition to negate the upward trend — a drop below 0.04829. Other fluctuations are considered noise for now.
If you had to pick one validation point first, would you watch for resistance confirmation or support breakdown?
The above is a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Crypto Bulls Talk.$SOL SLIPS BELOW ALL THREE DAILY EMAS AFTER A 124.96 HIGH. Price sits at 110.60 versus EMA5 at 114.12. The 7D move is -6.77%, yet 90D still reads +44.04%
I'd rather read multiple timeframes than react to one red candle. Can SOL reclaim EMA5 on the daily close?Smart money major shift: BTC and ETH bulls severely hit, is the buying side starting to fight back?
Derivatives positions have seen drastic changes.
· BTC: Long positions dropped from $2.92 billion to $1.59 billion. Previously, there was over $100 million unrealized profit, now turned into an $11.8 million loss.
· ETH: Long positions fell to $950 million with an unrealized loss of $39 million; shorts are profiting $32.6 million.
Bulls have clearly been flushed out, and leveraged funds are retreating. But there is a subtle signal amid the sell-off: in the last 30 minutes, buy volume has exceeded sell volume, with tentative buying at the lows.
My view: this is not a simple crash but more like a position reset. Shorts currently have the upper hand, but buyers have begun to counterattack. If buying volume continues, it could trigger short covering; if it’s just a pulse, the rebound will still be swallowed by selling pressure.
The key now is not sentiment but whether the volume can sustain.
$BTC $ETH
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049 $UNI
UNI fell nearly 10%, why hasn't high trading volume supported the price floor?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 6.995—8.024 USDT, change -9.83%, trading volume about 35.95 million USDT.
Active trading and price pullback coexist, meaning turnover does not guarantee buyers will prevail. Protocol fees, token staking, and price support belong to different evidence chains and trading volume cannot replace value capture by token holders.
If the low continues to move down and the rebound fails to recover, first lower repair expectations; if the low stabilizes and the upper half of the range is held again, then observe whether supply is being absorbed.Congratulations to me, I bought at the peak once again
At 93.5, precision guided, and the day after I bought, $HYPE started to pull back. A friend called to comfort me, saying this is called recharging for faith. I said faith can't be recharged with USDT, bro.
Everyone knows what happened next: 91 broke, 89 broke, 87 couldn't hold either. On the night of October 8th, at 82.634, my unrealized loss reached 11%. That night I cooked a bowl of instant noodles with two eggs—loss or not, I can't skimp on meals.
This morning at nine, a push notification popped up: 84.389, up 1.26%. I held the noodle soup and did the math, a 7-day drop of 6.15%, my account did slim down a bit. But looking at the big picture, 90 days +25.56%, 180 days +106.86%, wow, I was just shouting cold halfway up the mountain, while those who climbed from the foot of the mountain are still laughing.
By the way, that Papertrade on OK is opening pre-deposits and will officially start on October 10th. I plan to practice with the demo account first—the tuition paid with real money is enough once.OpenAI's annualized revenue is reported to be only about $50 billion, which is $20 billion less than the widely rumored $70 billion. Nvidia dropped nearly 3%, Oracle fell over 5%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 3.39%.
Bitcoin crashed from $83,299 to $80,397, with over 140,000 accounts liquidated within 24 hours, wiping out $647 million in long positions.
The market is in panic. Panic that the AI bubble is about to burst, panic that crypto will collapse along with it.
But Arthur Hayes posted a tweet yesterday that you need to remember: "Money will be printed, positions will rise."
Hayes said that before every super bull market starts, the market must climb over a "wall of worry."
In 2017, the wall was the block size debate—can Bitcoin really be used? In 2020, the wall was the COVID-19 pandemic—the global economy was doomed. In 2023, the wall was the FTX collapse plus aggressive rate hikes by central banks—cryptocurrencies are all scams.
Every time, behind the wall is a wave of money printing. Every time, those who get over it make a fortune.
What is the wall in 2026? Hayes gives a very specific answer: the panic caused by AI and crypto technology.
OpenAI disclosed to investors that as of the end of September, its annualized revenue was close to $50 billion. Previously, the widely reported figure was $70 billion.
A $20 billion difference. A 29% gap.
The market immediately started calculating: what if the "circular financing" chain that AI bears fear breaks? Investors fund OpenAI, OpenAI rents cloud services, cloud providers buy chips, chip giants reinvest in OpenAI. In this chain, OpenAI is the only link charging the end user. Its revenue falling short of expectations means end-user demand cannot cover the massive infrastructure investment.
Nvidia fell, Oracle crashed, CoreWeave plunged 8%.
Most people see OpenAI's revenue missing expectations and their first reaction is "the AI bubble is about to burst, run now."
Hayes sees it differently: the faster AI revenue grows, the sooner the bubble bursts; the sooner the bubble bursts, the stronger the Fed's justification to print money.
This is not just motivational talk. This is a judgment on the structural behavior of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is still around 5.25%, the 30-year at 5.69%, decades-high levels. The Treasury has more and more debt to repay, and the higher the rates, the greater the pressure. The midterm elections are just weeks away, and gasoline prices remain high due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—Brent crude is still above $101.
War is burning money, the AI bubble needs a backstop, and the elections are forcing politicians to act.
Three forces point to the same exit: liquidity.
A recent report from CICC bluntly states: the Fed's eventual rate cuts may exceed market expectations, and dollar easing trades may return in the short term.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a rate hike in October has plummeted from 70% a week ago to 18%.
The market is still debating "to hike or not," but the real old OGs are already betting on "when the printing starts."
Bitcoin is now stuck at $82,000. Support is between $80,500 and $81,500, resistance at $86,700.
Short-term volatility is indeed present. But Hayes' framework tells you: every macro negative release is fuel for money printing expectations.
The "ghost stories" of AI scared tech stocks, but the panic it caused will ultimately become an excuse for Fed easing.
$BTC $ETH $NVDA Midday Review
In half a day, the data has given a very painful answer again.
$HYPE
Whale long positions continue to rise to 101.83M, with a profit ratio reaching 47.56%; short losses have further expanded, unrealized floating losses exceed 10.89M, and the profit ratio has dropped to 54.08%.
The overall confidence of the longs is getting stronger. My 20x long position has a floating profit of +270.58%, floating profit of 1734U, and the profitable whales are still in the market, with no obvious weakening of the trend.
$BICO
Just a few hours later, the situation looks worse:
Whale long positions of 166 people total 680.52K, many people with heavy positions, the profit ratio directly falls to 25.30%, over 70% of the long whales are trapped;
In contrast, the short profit ratio has surged to 65.54%, steadily making gains.
My 8x full-position long has an unrealized floating loss expanded to -608.21%, floating loss of 1523U.
This is a typical crowded trapped position— the more people, the deeper the trap, and even a slight dip easily causes a stampede of position reductions.
Review insights:
Don’t just focus on "how many whales are long"; the profit ratio is the trump card.
Longs who are making money dare to hold and add positions; longs who are collectively deeply trapped see every rebound as an opportunity to run.
Both are bullish, but one side is the profitable main force, the other is trapped retail-like whales, with vastly different outcomes.
Future strategy:
Continue to prioritize following the side with the superior profit ratio; firmly avoid crowded tracks where the long profit ratio is extremely low and positions are collectively held; tighten risk control at high leverage moments, BICO is a vivid lesson.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049 BTC fell below 81,000, how to account for this drop
The lowest touched around 80,800, a 2-3% drop in 24 hours, basically erasing September's gains. Breaking it down: oil prices surged to $104, US Treasury yields reached 5.3%, risk assets were repriced; spot ETF saw a single-day net outflow of $485 million; over $1 billion liquidated across the network, with over 90% longs, breaking the 81,700 to 83,300 liquidation zone triggered a chain of forced liquidations amplifying the drop; spot plus ETF daily volume dropped to only $6.8 billion, the market is too thin.
Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term, wait for signals from the funding side. $BTC $ETH $SOLBitcoin dropped from 83,000 to 80,393 USD. Within 24 hours, forced liquidations across the entire network exceeded 1 billion USD, with about 930 million USD coming from long positions, and 166,769 investors were wiped out. Ethereum fell even harder, dropping below 2,500 USD, with liquidation amounts of 324 million USD, surpassing Bitcoin's 240 million USD.
Adding insult to injury, AI also crashed. OpenAI disclosed to investors an annualized revenue of about 50 billion USD, which is 20 billion less than the widely reported 70 billion USD. Nvidia fell nearly 3%, Oracle dropped over 5%, and the Nasdaq closed down 1.25%.
Three US aircraft carriers are gathering in the Middle East. US Treasury yields are at 5.3%, Brent crude oil at 105 USD. Only two days remain until the "10·10" crash anniversary.
At this moment, any rational person would ask the same question: Should we run?
But Hayes chooses to speak at such a time.
He says: At the start of every super bull market, the market must cross a high wall made up of various worries.
In 2017, that wall was the block size debate. Everyone thought BTC would split. What happened? New highs.
In 2020, that wall was the COVID-19 pandemic. Everyone thought the world was ending. What happened? New highs.
In 2023, that wall was the FTX collapse plus central bank rate hikes. Everyone thought crypto was dead. What happened? New highs.
Every wall seemed unsolvable at the time. Behind every wall, there were new highs.
So what will the wall be in 2026?
Hayes says: AI crypto panic.
Listen carefully — it’s "AI panic," not "crypto panic." The peculiarity of this wall is that its epicenter is not in the crypto market, but in the US stock market.
AI is the core narrative of this US stock bull market. OpenAI’s revenue data challenges the question: After spending hundreds of billions building AI infrastructure, can we actually recoup it? If the answer is no, tech stocks will crash, and all risk assets will suffer.
But thinking the other way — a tech stock crash precisely means the Fed must pivot.
With rate hikes facing 5.3% US Treasury yields and 105 USD oil prices, they are already on shaky ground. If the AI narrative is further disproven and economic data weakens, the Fed has no choice but to ease.
And crypto is the "ultimate expression" of risk assets. Once liquidity expectations turn, it will always be the first to rebound.
Hayes says "the money printing wave will eventually come," which you may not believe. But his "wall" framework is worth serious consideration.
Every time the market is most panicked, looking back, those things that kept you up at night — block splits, pandemics, FTX, AI horror stories — were all crushed by time. But what was crushed was not only fear, but also the positions of those who cut losses out of fear.
On-chain data shows: short-term holders have transferred over 50,000 BTC to exchanges, with 59% of those transfers in loss positions. Panic selling is already happening.
77,000 USD — the 50-week moving average.
If Hayes is right, if this AI panic wall will eventually be climbed over, what does around 77,000 USD mean?
It means a market cleaned out by leverage, a range where panic selling has been exhausted, a position you might regret not taking a closer look at.
$BTC $ETH $NVDA $BTC SLIPS UNDER ALL THREE DAILY EMAS AFTER 87,399.0 PEAK.
BTC/USDT trades at 82,509.6, below EMA20 at 83,262.3. Yet 90D still shows +29.29% while 7D reads -2.37%. Strong 90D, softer 7D.
I'd rather respect both than force a view. Does 83,262.3 get reclaimed before 24h low 80,400.0 breaks?ETH 100x full position long
Opening average price 2479.23, current floating profit 60.89%
Target at 2750, reaching the target would multiply the principal by about 11.92 times, equity reaching 446.17U
Liquidation price 2408.88, high leverage gamble, if the market reverses downward it will trigger liquidation.
High leverage yields strong explosive power, but liquidation risk is always present, respect the market.
Personal live trading record only, not investment advice.
$ETH
#OKXNOW #LiveTradingReview$NEAR: Counter-trend dark horse, surging 138% in 30 days
NEAR is the brightest star today, trading around $4.70, with a cumulative 30-day increase of 138%, pushing its market cap back into the top 20. The driving force behind this is NEAR Intent's cumulative transaction volume surpassing $31 billion, coupled with the launch of the first US NEAR spot ETF on September 29. There may be short-term correction pressure; Wintermute also warns that NEAR might enter a consolidation phase and advises against chasing the highs.
$FIL: Biggest turning point on October 15
FIL is trading around $1.08, up over 6% in 24 hours, showing resilience. The core positive factor is that on October 15, the six-year linear release by Protocol Labs and Filecoin Foundation will end. FIL's annual new supply is expected to drop sharply from about 88.4 million to about 22 million, a 75% reduction. The significant supply cut is a medium- to long-term positive, but short-term volatility after the positive is expected. It is recommended to watch the $1.05 support level. $BTC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 I just finished watching a public speech by the famous investor Li Lu. He shared a very interesting perspective: What is wealth? Essentially, wealth is the proportion of an individual's share of the world's purchasing power.
How to maintain or increase the purchasing power of wealth? It is by buying the best and most creative companies at favorable prices in the most dynamic countries and markets, then holding them long-term, allowing these companies to continuously create value over time, thereby maintaining and increasing our share of global purchasing power.
However, he is not very optimistic about Bitcoin. He values the system and power behind the currency, emphasizing the sovereign nation's right to issue currency. I have some reservations; sovereign nations cannot control excessive money printing. Bitcoin is a better currency, capable of resisting inflation and serving as a better store of value. I do not worship authority or institutions. I believe that decentralized currency like Bitcoin will have an increasing audience in the future.Core DAO 在伦敦证券交易所（LSE）业务真相 $CORE代币本身并没有在伦敦交易所上市。上市的是第三方发行商 Valour（DeFi Technologies旗下）的BTC质押ETP产品（1VBS），底层质押技术由Core提供支持。很多社区宣传会简化说成“Core登陆伦交所”，这是宣传口径，并不是CORE币挂牌交易。 产品：1Valour Bitcoin Physical Staking（1VBS） 1. 是什么：ETP（交易所交易产品，类似ETF），在伦敦证券交易所公开交易，受英国FCA监管，实物比特币做底层资产，比特币进入Core网络做非托管质押产生收益 。 2. 业务逻辑 - Valour公司持有真实BTC，机构冷存储保管； - 将BTC委托到Core网络验证者进行质押，产生质押奖励（标称年化约1.4%）； - 质押收益归入产品净值，投资者买这个伦交所证券，间接拿到“BTC价格涨幅+质押收益”； - 2025‑09专业投资者开放；2026‑01拿到FCA许可，对英国普通散户开放交易 。 3. Core在这里扮演角色：底层技术服务商 - 提供Satoshi‑PI wanted to make a rebound in the morning, but when I was writing the trading cold immersion book, the resistance above was 83633, and the risk-reward ratio was not favorable, so I temporarily waited and did not enter the market.
For me, the risk-reward ratio is the primary entry condition because it is the most important factor in determining how much you can earn.
When you focus on the risk-reward ratio, it reduces many unnecessary trades, thereby lowering trading frequency, minimizing mistakes, and achieving truly targeted and decisive strikes.On October 8, the US spot $BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about $238.6M, while the $ETH ETF had a net outflow of about $1.6M. On the surface, the capital flow for BTC appears significantly worse. However, considering that BTC had already experienced a substantial price drop in the previous two days, yesterday's outflow may include rebalancing and risk reduction, and not necessarily all long-term funds exiting. Meanwhile, with short-term market pressure mainly concentrated on BTC, ETH's price still fell over 3%, indicating that the pressure in both spot and derivatives markets might be even greater TIA has recently indeed been driven by both "events + narratives," but it's important to distinguish what is truly implemented versus what is expected:
✅ Implemented / Hard Events
· 10-01 Derive V3 (on-chain options exchange) integrated with Celestia for DA — real integration
· 10-02 Fibre test reached 3.07 Tb/s — throughput validation (but test ≠ mainnet)
· 10-30 Core contributor unlock ended (accounting for 17.64% of genesis) — daily unlock pressure decreased, a solid supply-side positive (not a cliff unlock)
· Earlier V9 upgrade → daily trading volume +102%
⏳ Expected / Not yet implemented (biggest catalyst still pending)
· Fibre mainnet launch — target ~1 Tb/s block space, but schedule not set
· "Sustainable Blob Economy" governance proposal — proposal stage, not yet on mainnet $TIA Existing holders have been carrying this $BTC rally.
The realized cap keeps climbing while new money from ETFs, stablecoins and treasuries is dropping.
The 2024 and 2025 rallies showed the same gap, but on far larger inflows. A pickup in new money would put real demand behind BTC.The first time I encountered this thing was when a friend shared a link in the group.
He said you could make money just by buying a little, and I believed him.
Downloaded the app, registered, verified identity, fussed until midnight.
The first thing I bought was $BTC, only dared to buy a few hundred yuan.
After buying, it dropped, and I stared at the screen cursing myself for acting too fast.
The next day it rose back a bit, and I felt like a stock market genius.
That feeling was like riding a roller coaster.
Later I heard $ETH could be used on-chain, so I tried it too.
The fees were ridiculously high, and I lost it all by transferring to the wrong address once.
I was so heartbroken I didn’t eat well for two days.
Then I saw others talking about $SOL, saying it was fast and cheap.
I took a little to test the waters, didn’t dare to go all in.
Looking back now, being cautious saved me.
I set rules for myself: only play with spare money, never borrow to invest.
If I make money, I take some out first and have a barbecue.
If I lose, I don’t add more, just close the app and go to sleep.
People in the group shout trade signals every day, I basically don’t watch.
Even if I watch, I don’t act, knowing my limits.
This thing’s ups and downs are scary; if you have a weak heart, don’t touch it.
Some people turn their lives around with it, others lose sleep because of it.
I don’t have great skills, just want to keep my life from falling apart.
Making a little pocket money is enough; if not, consider it tuition.
Work well, eat well, that’s better than anything.
Don’t let K-lines control your emotions.
Don’t let greed make decisions for you.
No trading after 11 PM.
Decisions made at midnight are mostly regretted the next day.
Those who say they’ll make you rich mostly want to earn your fees.
I’ve seen people quit their jobs to trade crypto, then worry about rent.
I’ve also seen people make money but not cash out, then end up returning it.
The market cures all kinds of arrogance.
My goal now is simple: don’t let it affect my sleep.
No matter how lively the market is, it’s not as real as a bowl of hot noodles.
That’s it, all learned from losses.
My memory isn’t good, so I have to write it down to remind myself. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049
#霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% $BTC bulls face a second strong resistance at $80K, quickly rebounding when approaching it and attempting to hold above $82K. I personally plan to close most of my protective put options today; after a clear resistance appears, the difficulty of further decline increases, so it's not worth wasting time value. I expect around $75K to be a good point for full position entry, as the downside is limited. I will continue holding spot and selling options to earn coins.Setting aside BCH, just for the ETH and SOL positions, a major adjustment could come at any time, and you might get liquidated before the "major adjustment" even happens. The core issue is the 0.29% margin rate. If $ETH and $SOL drop just 0.3%, the account goes straight to zero. ETH's current ATR is about $83, and SOL's intraday volatility often exceeds $2-3; a 0.3% fluctuation happens almost daily, so there's no need for a "major adjustment." $ETH $SOL $BCH ETH: Stuck at resistance, facing a shakeout risk ETH is currently around $2753, approaching the key Fibonacci 0.382 resistance at $2784. But the MACD histogram is completely zeroed out, the bullish momentum driving the rebound is exhausted, volume is very low, and selling pressure clearly dominates. More importantly, the global retail long-to-short ratio is as high as 2.28, with about 69.5% of retail traders long — historically, this is one of the clearest contrarian signals, and the market often liquidates overcrowded longs first. With an ATR of $83, a single day’s volatility can push ETH down to the strong support at $2640; retail longs will be squeezed and liquidated before the main trend resumes. SOL: Dense resistance, technical warnings of a pullback SOL is currently around $120, with resistance zones between $122.65 and $124.95, where a breakout requires volume confirmation. Although ETF inflows are strong, the MACD is at zero, and momentum is fading. SOL long positions are also crowded, with top Binance traders绝对不是投资建议。 Core 的核心叙事：BTCFi（比特币DeFi）赛道，独特的 Satoshi Plus 共识，把比特币算力+PoS一起用来保护网络，主打让闲置BTC做质押生息，代币CORE上限21亿枚（对标BTC的2100万） 。 ✅ 看多的逻辑（优势） 1. 赛道叙事稀缺 BTCFi是这几年币圈主线之一，很多比特币矿工、BTC大户对这个方向有兴趣；它的双质押机制：质押CORE可以拿到更高的BTC质押收益，理论上会持续产生对CORE的需求。官方2026路线图重点是生态收益回购CORE，不再单纯靠通胀燃烧，试图打造收入支撑的代币模型 。 2. EVM兼容，上手门槛低 以太坊开发者可以直接部署合约，生态方向集中在BTC借贷、BTC流动质押、RWA、支付（SatPay），定位就是比特币的智能合约链。 3. 矿工社区基础 早期吸引了不少BTC矿工参与共识，这是别的BTCFi项目（Babylon、Stacks）没有的差异化；有不少托管、机构服务商接入做BTC质押方案 。 ⚠️ 非常硬的风险（也是制约前景最大的地方，你之前关心的点） 1. 验证节点去中心化争议 + 官方节ETH returned to 2495, with a low hit at 2406. I've been watching the OKX order book and finally managed to climb out of the pit a bit.
Last night's drop was really brutal; the 2400 whole number support almost didn't hold. BTC slipped all the way down from 2740, losing over 330 points, like going down stairs, without even a decent rebound. Today it bounced back to 2495, which is a breather, but don't get too happy yet. There's resistance between 2500-2520, and if it can't break through, it's all for nothing.
I scanned the order book; there's support between 2420-2450. The rebound to 2495 shows there's buying interest below, but the buying pressure isn't strong, volume hasn't expanded, more like an oversold rebound rather than a trend reversal.
Key levels for $ETH that I marked:
Support: 2450-2470, as long as it doesn't break on a pullback, it's relatively stable; if broken, look at 2400-2420.
Resistance: 2500-2520, only with volume and a break above can we look at 2550-2580; if it can't break through, it's just a rebound.$ETH has repeatedly tested the pressure range of 2711-2758 without breaking through, so in the video on October 4th, we said that ETH is still in the correction starting from 2807. This is also one of the reasons we took the short position as shown in Figures 2-3.
What’s next? Does ETH still have a chance?
The decline from 2807 is temporarily considered a correction rather than a new downtrend. The key support level is between 2478-2500. Before breaking below this range, the drop from 2807 is seen as a correction against the red upward segment shown in the chart. After the correction ends, the next wave of daily-level rise will follow;
If it breaks below 2478-2500 and fails to recover, the drop from 2807 may develop into a correction against the entire black upward segment. This correction is at the weekly level, and after finding its end point, the next wave of weekly-level rise will begin.
As early as June 5th, we proposed that ETH would most likely fall to around 1500.
Subsequently, ETH dropped to a low of 1505V reversal, and we indicated that 1505 was most likely a phase low.
In these 107 days, during which most people shifted from "waiting for a lower point" to "doubting if there is a lower point," ETH has accumulated a gain of over 86%. Since we clearly identified a bullish trend at the beginning of June, our trades have gone smoothly, which shows the importance of following the trend.
Every trend cycle originates from a 4-hour K-line, or even a 1-hour K-line, so continuously tracking the market is crucial for us to grasp the rhythm of the market. $PURR $HYPE Damn it! HYPE's shakeout this round almost made me smash my phone. Around 85.4, the big players kept stabbing back and forth, shaking out all the retail chips. It's clearly a capital game; whoever chases will die. Don't rush, let the bullets fly for a while. I've set a long position ambush at 85.412, stop loss at 83.8, target first at 89, then 93 if it breaks through. Pure technical rebound, no news support actually makes it more stable. Follow or not, up to you, profits and losses on your own. 👇👇👇On the 7th, Vitalik posted that AI accelerating mathematical research has a considerable probability of severely impacting the practical security of lattice cryptography within two years. He specifically named ML-DSA and fully homomorphic encryption, which are the industry's main solutions prepared for post-quantum resistance, meaning the fallback options are now questionable. Ethereum's Lean route has already shifted to hash signatures like SPHINCS+. Two points are often overlooked. SPHINCS+ signatures are at least close to 8KB, while ECDSA is about 64 bytes, so block space needs to be recalculated. Also, there are currently no public attack results, and he himself said there is no need to rush to change wallets. $ETH is currently priced at 2490 USD, down 2.8% in 24 hours, $BTC at 82372 USD down 0.35%; this difference cannot be attributed to this article. I judge that the market will not price this in the short term. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. 【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜ETH October 9】
【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜ETH October 9】
Midday conclusion: ETH is expected to first look for a recovery, no rush to short; the key is whether the 2405–2420 support holds and if 2520 can be retaken. This bottom-line review is from public sources, verifying only 3 traceable viewpoints, not reaching ten.
1) Josh Olszewicz / @CarpeNoctom: Original view on October 8 was an unconfirmed hidden bullish divergence on ETH daily chart, followed by a 10% drop in two days. Editor's view combined with Binance spot price around 2491: only after holding 2405 is there a basis for recovery; surpassing 2520 targets 2580.
2) Daan Crypto Trades / @DaanCrypto: Original view on October 9 was BTC's drop causing long liquidations, ETH similar, market needs time to recover. Editor's inference: whether 2491 can become support is critical.
3) Cheds / @BigCheds: Original view on October 9 was BTC needs to reclaim 83000. Editor's inference: without BTC confirmation, ETH rebound can only be seen as a weak recovery.
Main route: recovery above 2405, confirmation at 2520 then target 2580; break below 2405 invalidates. Only follow confirmed conditions, no chasing orders. High leverage, slippage, and liquidation risks, not a signal to follow trades.
#BTC #ETH #OKB$ETH — 2,500, underperforming Bitcoin . ETH led the market in liquidations with 294.6 million in longs . Spot ETH ETFs recorded a seventh consecutive day of outflows, totaling approximately 2,355 (100-day EMA); resistance is $2,548 .先说重点：行业通用标准 主流链上分析（Santiment）把 ≥1000 BTC 的地址定义为BTC巨鲸（鲸鱼） - 最新统计：2044个地址 ≥1000 BTC，合计持有约717万枚BTC，占流通量接近36% 但是！地址 ≠ 真实独立的人/机构，这个是最容易踩坑的地方： 里面包含：交易所冷钱包、ETF托管地址、平台储备钱包，不是全部个人大户。比如一个交易所可能有好几个这种巨鲸地址，其实属于同一家机构。 更细的分层（另一种细分口径） - 鲨鱼：1000–5000 BTC - 鲸鱼：5000–10000 BTC（狭义whale）≈100多个地址 - 座头鲸（超级巨鲸）：＞10000 BTC，不到100个地址，这里面就是MicroStrategy、美国政府、早期巨富、大托管方这一档 两个关键误区 1. 没法精确知道真实“鲸鱼人数”：一个人可以控制几十个钱包；一个钱包也可能是很多用户的钱（交易所），链上只能数地址，分不清背后实体。 2. 不同平台门槛不一样：有些媒体宽松一点，把≥100 BTC就叫大户，这个口径数量会涨到接近2万个地址，不能混为一谈。 简单一句Rebound facing resistance? Is the 1-hour resistance level a breakout or forming a W bottom?
1. Market Status: Overbought and facing resistance, walking on thin ice
① After a sharp drop in BTC and ETH on the 1-hour chart, a V-shaped rebound is underway, currently precisely hitting the 1-hour resistance level where the upper moving average and trendline converge.
② Extreme overbought warning triggered! KDJ's J values both exceed 100, but volume has failed to continue expanding. A volume-less rise that cannot break through in one go is prone to failure, and technical correction pressure increases sharply.
2. Capital Battle: Leverage liquidation, retail frenzy
① The crash caused open interest to plummet, and leverage has been forcibly cleared. However, funding rates remain flat, lacking the combined force to sustain the rally.
② Danger signal: The long-short ratio for ETH surged to 2.33, BTC reached 1.76, and retail bottom-fishing sentiment is extremely frenzied. The main players will never support such an overcrowded long position; beware of a secondary dip.
3. Trading Strategy: Patiently wait for signals, avoid blind following
① The 1-hour resistance level here is the dividing line between bulls and bears! If a strong breakout occurs, the next resistance level will be targeted; if the breakout fails, a further dip to form a W bottom is highly likely.
② For those wanting to enter, avoid blindly chasing highs at this moment! Patiently wait for right-side confirmation after the breakout or wait for a pullback to stabilize for a low-risk buy. Bullets loaded, but do not fire recklessly.
Core Summary:
Trading is the art of patience, and small positions show respect for the market. Let the market choose its direction; don’t shoot until you see the rabbit. Endure the volatility and wait quietly for truly certain signals!
$BTC $ETH Brothers, can we consider this a stabilization? Is it safe to go long?
Brothers, I'm really completely confused now! The market has been falling sharply for days, I couldn't sleep last night, my mindset completely collapsed. I thought it had bottomed out and could stabilize, but every small rebound is followed by a new round of dumping. Now the market has somewhat recovered, but I'm afraid to go long, worried it's a bull trap. This kind of volatile market is the hardest to trade.
$BTC current price is 82437, with a short-term rebound, strong support at 80000 below; if it breaks, there is room to fall further.
$ETH current price is 2493, recovering in sync with BTC, support at 2370 below; overall still weak until volume increases and strength shows.
$ZEC current price is 1222, more volatile than mainstream coins, rebound strength is good, key support at 1100 below; if this level doesn't hold, it may fall again.
Currently, this is only a short-term rebound after a big drop, not a true stabilization; market confidence hasn't fully returned, and buying power isn't solid.
This is a corrective consolidation after a decline; reversal signals are not confirmed yet, so it's not recommended to rush into heavy long positions.
Having just experienced a big drop, the risk of entering now is still high. Be patient, wait for support to hold firmly and for sustained rebound signals before considering entry. When the market is unclear, controlling your actions is the best choice.
⚠️Personal market review, not investment advice $CL trading viewpoint sharing,
Previously, I mentioned that if the daily chart closed with a low fractal breaking the left one, it might start an upward 30-minute trend type rally. Unexpectedly, it dropped last night, and a 5-minute trend type divergence also appeared, along with a strong 4-hour top fractal. Therefore, I believe it will at least form a 5-minute trend type downtrend. The ideal entry point is not good for a long position, so for now, I am only taking short positions on the 1-minute trend type, hoping to meet expectations!! #缠论
Trading viewpoint sharing, not investment advice!#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
US Stock Market Analysis: Middle East Oil Fire + AI "Shrinkage", Nasdaq Crashed 1.25%, But These Two Signals Are Supporting the Bottom
Nasdaq was hammered again on Thursday, down 1.25% to close at 27,193 points, S&P fell 0.47%, and Dow Jones was slightly up 0.10% supported by energy stocks. The market split is very obvious: the energy sector rose nearly 3%, while the tech sector lagged, down 1.78%.
Two things are weighing on the market. First, multiple escalations in the Middle East situation: Houthi forces attacked a Saudi airport, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to the lowest since July, with WTI crude oil briefly surging over 4%. Second, OpenAI told investors that its annualized revenue by the end of September was close to 50 billion, which is 20 billion less than the previously hyped 70 billion by the media, directly triggering a sell-off in AI stocks.
The transmission chain is very clear. Oil price rise → inflation expectations heat up → US Treasury yields surged in early trading. But once OpenAI's "revenue inflation" was revealed, market logic immediately shifted: AI capital expenditure might not be as aggressive, reducing the marginal pressure on Treasury bonds, and the long-end Treasuries actually attracted safe-haven buying, with the 10-year yield dropping 5 basis points to 5.227%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 3.39%.
Bitcoin fell 1.9% to around $81,800, following the weakness in risk assets.
To be frank: the core of this decline is not the Middle East, but the AI narrative being torn apart. However, demand for the 30-year Treasury auction was booming, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54 times far exceeding the average, indicating that there are buyers at the long end.Challenge to break even before the end of October
Recording the current loss of 4060u, total profit -45%
Performance enhancement methods:
1. Short PONS at low leverage for long-term holding, hold onto floating profits.
2. Short RIVER and LAB at 5x leverage for long-term holding.
3. Short BTC loss positions are currently held.
4. I am bearish on the current market trend, waiting for the right timing and market confirmation.
Hold onto floating profits, partially take profits. Maintain a good mindset, do not try to grab profits that don't belong to you, give the market some space. $BTC ultimately reached the $80k–$82k liquidity sweep I've been tracking. Most of that cluster has already been cleared, and now the remaining main liquidity is mostly stacked above us.
We've broken below the range low, so yes—there is indeed a possibility of further downside to sweep the remaining liquidity below. But my real target hasn't changed: $87k–$90k.
I'm waiting for a reclaim of $83k. Give me a daily close above it—preferably a weekly close—and then I'll start looking for long setups targeting the liquidity near the upper highs. Until then, manage positions within the range and wait for a structural reversal. $BTC $ETH $SOL