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Brothers, the on-chain data is out. Investors who bought BTC in 2025 have an average cost of 88000, now at 82000, so they are also at a floating loss. 😅😅😅😅😅
Damn, even those who bottomed out in 2025 are trapped. BTC fell from the high of 126000, trapping batch after batch.
I think 88000 is a major resistance level. When BTC rebounds to around 88000, this batch of trapped holders will be freed and flee, causing heavy selling pressure.
Don’t expect a return to 88000 in the short term. First, let’s see if 83500 can be surpassed.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC $ETH $ZEC ETH holder, I’m not worried at all about this round of pullback; my long-term bullish view remains unchanged.
From above 2700, it dropped all the way down to around 2400, a decline of over 11% in 7 days. Sister Three’s account has shrunk with an unrealized loss of over 40%, so feeling uneasy is normal. But you can’t just look at red and green candles. Today, the 1-hour K-line stopped falling at 2405, the price bounced back above 2480, and turned green again intraday. Buyers are steadily absorbing sell orders at the lows. This kind of volume-shrinking dip followed by stabilization often signals a completed shakeout rather than a trend reversal.
I’m optimistic about $ETH, never basing my view on a single candle. Its ecosystem, L2 solutions, staking lockups, and institutional adoption have been built up over years and won’t disappear because of a week’s correction. The 90-day cycle is still positive, and the medium-term foundation remains intact. Discussions about upgrades and ETFs continue, sentiment hasn’t dissipated, and capital hasn’t left.
This brief pullback shakes out weak hands and leaves those who truly understand it. I’ve experienced deeper drawdowns than this, and every time in hindsight, it was a window to buy or add positions. Hold on, don’t let short-term volatility decide for you. 3000 is not the end, just the next stop.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位
#OKX以250亿美元估值完成战略融资 No amount of Robinhood “support” is going to save this chain.
The problem runs deeper than a lack of attention. It’s a blockchain with no clear reason to exist. Listing more speculative meme coins and Robinhood ecosystem tokens won’t change that reality.
Competing with Solana as a general-purpose blockchain is an uphill battle. That’s the same challenge facing Base, Sui, Aptos, Abstract, and MegaETH. Without a compelling reason for users and developers to choose them.
#DailyOrbit #Bitcoin Reused Addresses Hold 4.33 Million BTC
⚠️ 4.33 million $BTC face public key exposure issues, bringing quantum computing risks back into focus
Glassnode data shows that BTC held in reused Bitcoin addresses has increased to about 4.33 million coins, accounting for 21.5% of the circulating supply. Over the past year, this figure has grown by approximately 14.2%.
More notably, when combining reused addresses with some legacy address structures, the total BTC with exposed public keys reaches about 6.26 million coins, representing 31.2% of the total supply.
Why does this matter?
Bitcoin addresses may expose their corresponding public keys during spending transactions. Reusing addresses keeps the public key continuously visible, so if quantum computing achieves sufficient cracking power in the future, these assets could face higher risks.
But don’t misinterpret this: public key visibility does not equal private key compromise, nor does it currently mean these BTC can be directly stolen.
What truly deserves attention is how the Bitcoin ecosystem will advance quantum-resistant cryptographic solutions and whether migrating assets from old addresses will become a long-term issue. $BTC, according to the normal correction range in a bull market, generally after the first wave of the rally peaks in the short term, the correction amplitude is between 10% and 15%. This wave's short-term top is around 87,000, so our correction range is roughly between 76,000 and 80,000. Why does everyone start looking at 40,000 just because of a slight pullback? When it rises, they look at 100,000; when it falls, they look at 40,000?
I have emphasized this point to everyone before: Institutions are collectively retreating! BTC outflow of 487 million in a single day, can 83,000 still hold?
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
We really can't be careless this time! On the 7th, the US BTC spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $487 million, the largest in nearly three and a half months. BlackRock iShares saw an outflow of 208 million, Fidelity 105 million, ARKB 102 million, with all 12 products experiencing outflows, not a single net inflow.
What’s even more painful is that the day before, there was an inflow of 119 million, which was immediately reversed. Since October, the cumulative net outflow has reached 163 million, and BTC has also dropped to around 83,000.
I think this can't be seen as an ordinary correction. The Fed’s stance is hawkish, US Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil prices are all high, the market is already under pressure, and with institutional funds withdrawing again, it will be even harder for bulls to turn things around.
Of course, a single-day outflow doesn’t mean the bull market is over, but continuous outflows are definitely not a good sign. Being bullish on the crypto market long-term doesn’t mean institutions won’t reduce positions in the short term. Don’t just listen to the good news stories; you have to see where the real money is going.
Key focus going forward: will ETFs continue large outflows, and can funds turn positive again? If withdrawals persist, BTC may need to find support lower; if outflows narrow quickly, this might just be a phase of risk aversion.
I definitely won’t rush to bottom-fish or follow the crowd to cut losses. The scarier the market, the more you have to control your hands. If institutions keep running, 83,000 might not hold! What do you think, is this a shakeout or the start of a bigger correction?The decline has lessened, so for now, don't follow the rebound to green.
$SUI has still risen about 38% in the past month, but it has already dropped about 6.1% in the past week, currently around 1.095 tonight.
The previous gains remain, but right now we can't continue to set expectations based on a strong market.
I'm more concerned about where the price will stop when the next rebound meets a pullback.
If it falls lower each time, it means the recovery hasn't caught up yet.
If the pullback becomes shallower, then pushing higher has a better foundation.
Relying solely on monthly gains to stay bullish is a bit too easy.
Short term, wait for it to finish retreating; don't look for reasons for the next rally prematurely.
$HYPE is back near 85.8, with a monthly gain of only about 1%, and a weekly drop of about 4.6%.
This means those who bought in the past month and held on
may not have much profit left, depending on their entry point.
For now, I’m lowering expectations for a quick surge.
We need to see the price rise again,
not just occasional spikes followed by immediately resetting targets to previous highs.
$BICO has basically been flat over 24 hours but still dropped about 8.7% over the week and about 10% over the month.
It didn’t fall much today, so we can catch our breath, but this doesn’t prove the prior weakness is over.
I will watch if it can move from "no longer falling" to "starting to rise."
Then from one rise to continuous recovery, every step needs to show progress.
Skipping a step in judgment often helps avoid impulsive decisions.#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 Hello brothers and sisters, I am Coin Brother.
Brothers, although BTC has rebounded, the ETF data looks bad. Fidelity's FBTC had a single-day net outflow of $197 million.
I think institutions are still withdrawing. Previously, BlackRock's IBIT had an outflow of $208 million, and now Fidelity has also pulled out. Both giants withdrawing simultaneously indicates institutions are taking profits at the high.
I believe BTC is rebounding but institutions are not buying, so this rebound lacks momentum. Without incremental funds, the price will drop again after reaching 83,500.
Keep an eye on ETF data; if there are continuous outflows, don't chase the long.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $BTC $ETH $ZEC There’s one thing I’ve never quite figured out: why do whales keep buying repeatedly at the same spot?
According to Santiment’s data, over the past 96 hours, those wallets holding more than 100 million DOGE have collectively added 1.14 billion DOGE, worth about 112 million USD.
1.14 billion DOGE. 96 hours.
I checked the records and found a pattern. In May 2026, there was a similar 96-hour window when whales bought 525 million DOGE, with the price also stuck near the 200-day moving average. Then from September 9 to 14, those big wallets added about 240 million DOGE, while the price slid from 0.091 to 0.081.
Buying in May, buying in September, and now buying again. Every time the price stalls near the moving average, whales are scooping up.
After this round of buying, 149 wallets holding at least 100 million DOGE now collectively hold about 108.5 billion DOGE, the highest level in history.
I don’t know what they see. And I don’t need to know. I only know one thing—a person who spends hundreds of millions of dollars buying something isn’t doing it just to make ten percent profit. Their goal is much bigger than mine.
$DOGE is still hovering around 0.085. Whales are still buying. I’m following. $BTC This sharp drop is not simply due to the US government selling off Bitcoin.
The core root cause is the tightening of liquidity domestically in the US, with reserves experiencing the largest decline of the year.
October is always a month of fiscal tightness in the US, and this year the pressure is especially pronounced.
With no new liquidity entering the market, naturally there is a lack of buying support.
A secondary factor is that the market has already priced in the positive expectations ahead of the midterm elections. Everyone originally expected policy benefits to boost the market before the elections, and this expectation has already been reflected in the price.
The 80,000 level is the bulls' last psychological defense line. Once this level is breached, the downside will open up further, and opportunities for low-priced chips will gradually emerge.BTC around 82,000, down 1.54% in 24h; ETH around 2,475-2,500, down 3.73%.
Macro has eased: US Treasury yields fell, 10-year dropped from 5.35% to 5.23%, oil prices declined. But funding conditions worsened: ETH ETF outflows for 8 consecutive days, with 72.54 million outflow on October 8, BlackRock accounting for 71.12 million; BTC ETF net outflow of 485 million on October 7.
Liquidations exceeded 1.1 billion, longs accounted for 89%. ETH long liquidations 294 million, BTC long liquidations 273 million.
ETH continues to be abandoned: ETH/BTC weakens, BitMine positions peaked, Tom Lee confirmed no more buying.
Key levels: BTC resistance above 82,500, buy wall at 81,000-81,250; ETH resistance above 2,492, support at 2,418-2,425.
Strategy: Do not chase shorts or bottom-fish. Wait for BTC to stabilize above 82,500 or ETH to reclaim 2,492 before lightly trying longs. If no signal, just wait.
In short: Macro easing but ETFs are still running, leverage not cleared yet, defend first.ZEC is bearish, with the latest price at 1220.8 still below all EMAs, and the local rise is still suppressed by the moving averages.
The simultaneous rise in highs and lows provides a basis for the continuation of the local uptrend, and the support may not necessarily break. The previous complete 4-hour cycle OBV is declining, weakening the volume support for this rise.
Only when it continuously holds above EMA21 at 1265.0237, and the subsequent complete 4-hour cycle OBV turns upward, will the bias shift to bullish; the current bearish judgment is invalid.
Only when it continuously breaks below support at 1,218.1, and the 4-hour close afterward still does not recover, will the breakdown be confirmed and the bearish bias strengthened; intraday touches do not count. $ZEC The current rise is not driven by active buying but by short liquidations and passive stop-loss triggers; caution is needed for a rebound after the liquidation $BTC $ETH SOL is currently on hold. The latest price is 110.64, still below all EMAs, and the local rise has not yet broken free from the moving average resistance.
Higher highs and higher lows provide a basis for the continuation of the rebound. However, the OBV of the last complete 4-hour cycle is declining, weakening the volume support for this rise, and the short-term structure improvement is not enough to confirm a trend strengthening.
Only if it continuously holds above 112.50 and the OBV of the subsequent complete 4-hour cycle turns upward will the outlook shift to bullish.
If it continuously breaks below 110.62 and the close still fails to recover, the bias turns bearish; intraday touches do not count as confirmation. $SOL #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
Many people are still watching ETF inflow data to comfort themselves, thinking institutions are buying every day, so BTC definitely won't fall. What happened? They got slapped in the face.
The reality is straightforward: there is indeed buying pressure, but it can't withstand the selling pressure flooding like a dam break. In the past 24 hours, long position liquidations have soared past 85%, and that's the real main event. Leveraged longs are being forcefully liquidated wave after wave, passive sell orders are crashing down like an avalanche, and the ETF's "trickling" net inflow can't fill the hole created by concentrated liquidations.
The problem lies in the rhythm. ETF funds are slow variables, biased towards allocation and long-term; leveraged funds are fast variables, running at the slightest emotional spike and triggering chain liquidations at the first sign of clearing. Short-term pricing power is not in the hands of ETFs but in the hands of leverage.
Looking at the macro side, US Treasury yields are pushing up, oil prices are restless, and risk assets are generally under pressure. Even if institutions want to buy BTC, they have to calculate funding costs and weigh the cost-effectiveness of other assets. It's not that they won't buy, but they are not in a hurry.
Options expiration adds fuel to the fire. With 22,000 contracts nearing delivery, longs and shorts adjust positions early, volatility is amplified, prices jump up and down, and retail investors simply can't keep up with the pace.
So stop crudely equating "ETF inflows" with "BTC will rise." Today's ETFs are more like catching flying knives for the market, not yet qualified to be the main player.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #The US government transferred 264 BTC What should LEO holders pay attention to?
On October 6, the US government transferred about 264.86 $BTC to Coinbase, worth approximately $22.87 million. This batch of Bitcoin is related to the 2016 Bitfinex hack incident.
Here’s the key point: this does not mean the US government is selling Bitcoin.
According to related reports, these assets are involved in a court-ordered return arrangement, ultimately used to repay Bitfinex. The exchange previously also promised that at least 80% of the net proceeds remaining after returning the related assets would be used to repurchase and burn LEO.
But don’t rush to see this as positive news:
The Recovery Right Tokens (RRT) of the affected users need to be processed first.
After deducting related fees, the actual amount available for repurchase is still unclear.
The repurchase amount, specific start time, and actual burn quantity still require follow-up announcements for confirmation.
So what’s really worth tracking here is not whether the 264 BTC will be dumped, but how much Bitfinex can ultimately raise to repurchase LEO.
A repurchase commitment does not mean the repurchase has already happened. We need to watch the actual execution data later.Last night I was still calculating if I had enough money for instant noodles this month, and this morning I was already thinking about whether to add sausage. One last look before sleep, $WLD showed weak rebound, strong selling pressure, low trading volume, so I directly signaled a short near 0.5994, placed the short order, and went to sleep.
During the intraday repeated fluctuations, I didn't rush to act, waiting for it to drop on its own. Now from 0.4972 to 0.4972, the short position's floating profit is +852.51%, this wave was worth the wait.
First close 80%, keep 20% at cost price for protection. Take profits when you should, and don't give back profits if it rebounds.
The premise of compounding is staying alive; the shortcut to getting rich quickly often leads to zero. Being out of position is not a sin; opening random positions is the mistake.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing shorts can easily get stopped out by rebounds. Wait for the next signal before acting, there are still opportunities, don't be anxious.
$SNDK $ADA Now it feels more like the end of a margin wash, not a chasing phase. Have you recently felt that kind of fatigue of "chasing after a little rise, wanting to exit after a dip"? My position diary this week was very honest: I missed a segment and was left behind again during the volatility. Looking back, what really matters is not the candlestick charts, but where money prefers to stay. Oil prices are rising, US Treasury yields near multi-decade highs, and risk appetite is being suppressed; The Fed's minutes still hold the possibility of a rate hike in December. These two factors mean short-term funds are reluctant to leverage too much. But on the other hand, spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed 57.8B. What's interesting about this number is not "long," but "stable"—it means money that doesn't pay much attention to intraday fluctuations is slowly entering the market. On Ethereum's side, the Glamsterdam upgrade was already running on the Sepolia testnet on October 6, packaging enshrined PBS and parallel processing, with mainnet targets set for Q4 2026. - Momentum signals: Continued ETF absorption + Ethereum technical roadmap advancement, indicating allocation preference is still in place. - Risk signals: Macro interest rates and oil prices remain unchanged, so the margin for error for chasing highs is very low. The second layer of transmission I care about more is: when risk-free returns remain this high, money will first pick the most certain assets. BTC will take advantage of this preference, ETH will gradually follow through narrative, and altcoins will wait for real sentiment to recover. So the current pace is suitable for small positions to try and reduce when mistaken, not to fully invest in the direction. The bullish path is ETF buying to support the bottom and upgrade expectations to ferment; Bearish$BTC spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $484.9 million on October 7 and another $244.1 million on October 8.
Nearly $730 million outflow in two days explains why every BTC rebound seems so weak.
Retail investors are still discussing "October will definitely rise," but ETFs are continuously withdrawing funds.
The so-called Uptober is worthless; what truly determines short-term strength or weakness is whether new funds come in to take over.
Until the funds return, consider the rebound as a repair phase. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Closed the BTC market, profit 1682u, fees 287u.
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049 I'll start with the conclusion. ZEC is currently neither at a bottom rebound nor clearly peaked; it is in a high-level turnover phase after a year of explosive growth. The latest price of OKX ZEC-USDT is about $1,221.9, opening 24h at $1,248.5, with a high of $1,256.05 and a low of $1,112.27, down about -1.85% in 24h. According to CoinGecko: circulating market cap is about $20.74 billion, FDV about $20.74 billion, and the total 24h market volume is about $1.57 billion. What really matters is not how much it fell today, but this line: $1,150-$1,200 is the current short-term strength/weakness line. Holding above means high-level turnover and trend continuation; failing to hold means entering a deeper pullback, looking down to $1,000-$1,050, and further down to the $880-$900 trend support line. The first resistance above is $1,250-$1,280 (close to the 7-day moving average), with strong resistance at $1,360-$1,400 (a dense area of the 14/30-day moving averages). In short: it is strong, but this is not a low-level buying point; it is more like a position to wait for confirmation or a pullback. 1/ What is ZEC? ZEC is the native coin of Zcash, launched in 2016, one of the oldest and most technically advanced privacy coins. Its core is zero-knowledge proofs (zk-SNARKs): transactions can be made through transparent addresses or canGold has really been strong lately.
Just saw spot gold hit $4200, up 1.61% in one day.
Honestly, I’m a bit impressed.
In crypto, they keep calling it digital gold, but when it comes to real safe haven, money still flows into gold.
That’s interesting.
You say it’s a safe haven, but the US stock market hasn’t crashed.
You say it’s inflation resistance, but inflation data hasn’t exploded.
So who exactly is buying?
My guess is—big money is hiding from something in advance.
Might not be right, but this gold price move doesn’t look like something retail investors could pull off.
Looking at it together, $BTC actually seems a bit sluggish this round.
Not bearish, just feels like money trusts that old guy more right now.
Gold is already at 4200, while crypto is still talking about the halving story.
Who’s the real safe haven? The market votes with its feet.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $BTC $FIL GAINED 30.98% IN 30 DAYS, YET TODAY CRAWLS AT +0.50%. On the daily chart, the 1.2286 high got rejected, and the second push peaked lower. Price sits at 1.0743. Big monthly gains don't promise follow-through. I stay patient. Can FIL reclaim 1.2286, or does the lower high stand?In this round of decline, the entire market liquidated over $1.1 billion, mostly long positions.
The problem isn't that the market suddenly turned bad, but that after the rise a few days ago, too many people thought a pullback was a buying opportunity, piling on heavier positions while setting stop losses closer and closer.
When the price slightly accelerated downward, stop losses, forced liquidations, and chasing shorts all clustered together, naturally causing a waterfall effect.
Don't rush to blame the whales. When leverage is maxed out, the market will sooner or later find a reason to clear the field. $BTC ETF is still buying, but the price has dropped
$BTC is now around 82000.
It dropped 2 points in 24 hours.
Where is the money coming from:
ETF funds have been flowing in continuously.
The buying is real and hasn't stopped.
How is this number calculated:
The 10-year US Treasury yield is 5.36%.
The highest since 2002.
Money placed in bonds yields returns, so there's no rush to buy other assets.
$ETH dropped from 2700 to 2420.
Now around 2480.
Its volatility is naturally greater than $BTC.
$SOL and similar public chain coins rely on new money entering.
If new money doesn't come, the hype dies down.
ETF buying is slow money.
When rate hike expectations tighten, fast money runs first.
They are not the same group.
Macro pressure won't dissipate in the short term.
The next rebound will most likely wait until rate hike expectations ease first.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC $ETH Mainstream coins 12h liquidation pain points: The current prices of mainstream coins are all close to dense short positions.
BNB is only +0.05% away from the short pain point, BCH +0.16%, ETH +0.29%, XRP +0.44%, SOL +0.77%, BTC +0.84%. The system marks short positions as high risk/extreme risk.
ETH and BTC have larger long liquidation pools below, but they are farther away. If the short term moves up again, shorts are more likely to be liquidated; this is not a directional signal, pay attention to leverage. The deadline for the US 2025 tax filing extension is approaching, and crypto asset reporting is increasingly becoming part of the traditional tax system.
This has limited short-term impact on BTC prices.
But from the perspective of long-term industry development, this is a very clear signal:
Crypto is being integrated into traditional financial regulations.
Trading, ETFs, custody, taxation, asset disclosure—these processes are becoming more standardized.
Many people think regulation means restrictions.
But from the perspective of institutional capital, the real fear is:
Regulatory uncertainty.
As rules become clearer, the institutional cost for traditional funds entering Crypto may actually gradually decrease. #美2025年度延期报税10月15日截止，涉及加密申报 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ $BTC $ETH $ZEC NEAR dropped nearly 12%, but has already rebounded nearly 12% from the intraday low, with the funding rate still at -0.0133%.
As of 13:22 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is about $4.815, with a 24-hour high of 5.598 and a low of 4.301, a volatility of about 30.2%; trading volume is about $64.76 million.
OKEx hourly statistics show an open interest nominal value of about $58.19 million, an increase of about 12.9% compared to about 12 hours ago, but a decrease of about 2.2% in the last hour. My judgment is that there is support at the low level, but short sellers are paying fees and short-term deleveraging coexist, so the rebound cannot yet be considered as pressure being relieved.
The easiest misjudgment is to directly take the negative funding rate as a guarantee of continued short squeeze; it only indicates that shorts are paying longs. If the position does not surge sharply and the rate gradually returns to neutral when it retakes about $4.95, the rebound structure may be healthier; if it falls back below 4.60 while positions increase again and the rate continues to decline, the remaining leverage may amplify the decline again.
$NEAR The bulls really got crushed this round
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.16 billion, with bulls accounting for $1 billion and bears only $108 million. 190,000 people were liquidated, over 90% of whom were long positions
This is the largest scale long liquidation in nearly 90 days, with $600 million liquidated in just one hour‼️‼️
But $BTC did not break 80,000⭕️⭕️⭕️
A spike reached 80,400, and since October 3rd, a large number of buy orders have accumulated, forming the largest buy cluster below currently
The Fed minutes show most officials believe another rate hike is needed this year
US Treasury yields remain around 5.3%, Brent crude oil is at $105
ETF funds saw a single-day outflow of $487 million, the largest since the end of June. The triple pressure combined has made leveraged longs the sacrificial lambs
The 80,000 level has held in the short term. Below that, there is a thicker support zone at 77,000–77,664, which coincides with the 50-week moving average and the long liquidation trigger zone. Above, 85,812 is the densest area of short liquidations, with a cumulative short position strength of $2.449 billion. This will become the fuel for a new round of upward movement
Next, all eyes are on the October 14 CPI. If the data cools down, 80,000 will be the bottom; if the data remains sticky, 80,000 will have to be defended again
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $DOGE BOUNCES AFTER TWO HEAVY RED DAILY CANDLES. Price sits at 0.08544, up 1.65% today, yet 7D still reads -8.06%. I'm treating this as a pause, not a reversal. One green candle proves little. Would a push through the 24h high of 0.08843 change your read?Bitcoin falls below $81,000, 6.4 million BTC in unrealized losses
$BTC accelerated its decline on Thursday, once touching the $80,000 mark, hitting a one-month low. It has dropped over 8% from the $87,000 high four days ago. $ETH and XRP fell about 6% in the past 24 hours, while SOL dropped 9%.
After falling below $81,000, approximately 6.4 million bitcoins are in unrealized losses. About $1.02 billion worth of liquidations occurred across the network in the past 24 hours, with 165,000 people liquidated; shorts were almost unharmed.
Coincidentally, tomorrow marks the one-year anniversary of the flash crash on October 10 last year—when Bitcoin fell from $122,000 to $105,000 in just a few minutes.
On the institutional side, the story is different: State Street surveyed 300 asset management institutions, with 51% expecting digital assets to become mainstream within five years, compared to 11% in 2024. Institutions have on average allocated 11% already. Price is the wrong place to start a $BTC vs $SOL comparison, because flows say more. Bitcoin's cumulative ETF inflows are above $120B, while Solana's are smaller, which makes it a second-tier allocation. That makes Bitcoin the default holding, while Solana's case rests on its roadmap, since the Alpenglow consensus overhaul reached a test cluster on May 11, 2026. $ETH sits between the two, so the real question is simple: in a slow market.
Would you rather hold certainty or a roadmap? The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $140.6 million yesterday, with Franklin and ARK suffering the heaviest losses. Demand for regulated crypto assets is clearly waning. On the other hand, Russia's digital ruble opened 220,000 accounts in its first month, far exceeding the expected 60,000. The expansion speed of central bank digital currencies is indeed fast, and it will likely compete directly with stablecoins and decentralized payments going forward. I sat in the security booth, unscrewed my thermos, took a sip of hot water, and then continued watching ETH.
ETH current price is 2495.38, MACD shows a death cross below the zero line, RSI is weak, and short-term momentum is declining. The CoinGlass liquidation chart shows a cluster of long liquidations around 2473, with heavier short liquidations near 2527. The price is stuck oscillating between 2490 and 2520. In this structure, chasing longs is likely to backfire, while chasing shorts risks a rebound.
Operationally, I lean bearish. Enter short positions in batches between 2510 and 2520, with a stop loss above 2535. The first take profit target is 2475, the second near the support at 2440. If the price breaks below 2440 with volume, then follow the trend and look lower. The defense point is 2535; if broken, admit the mistake and exit without holding the position.
Right now, the market is a tug of war between bulls and bears. Wait for the chips in the liquidation chart to be cleared before deciding the direction. I keep watching the entrance; everyone who comes in must register first.
$ETH
#跟着OKX打卡2049
@OKX星球 $ZEC actually didn't drop much today, hovering around 1220 all day, but if you look at its recent long lower shadow, you know it didn't just not drop—it dug a pit and then filled it back up.
What's interesting is who caused this lower shadow. Yesterday's sharp drop was on high volume, crashing from 1297 down to 1112, dropping fiercely and quickly. But at the bottom of that pit, the trading volume actually surged to 76M, the highest in the entire wave—where it dropped the hardest, buyers were the most aggressive. This kind of "buying on the day of the crash" scene is completely different from a slow, knife-like downtrend.
There are usually only two possibilities: either the bottom-fishing funds are really strong, or the main force is washing out floating chips and then using a lower shadow to recover the cost basis. I can't distinguish which on the spot, but they share one thing in common—someone near 1112 clearly showed up, and it wasn't the intuition of retail spot traders, but organized volume.
So my view is reversed: for other coins, I watch resistance; for ZEC, I watch whether the pit at 1112 holds. As long as the volume doesn't pick up near this level and the pit remains, this pit digging is more of a "washout" than a "crash"; if one day the volume surges and breaks through it, then it's really bad. If it can hold above 1255 on volume, then it's not a rebound but a recovery.
$BTC $ETH Showing off $TIA holdings, 50x long position with a floating profit of 355%!
Clear logic: After the early shakeout released emotions, TIA formed a bottom around 0.48, and capital preference shifted towards a rebound. I entered at 0.484, followed the uptrend, and the current price of 0.5184 has already yielded substantial profits.
The power of 50x leverage is great, but the core is timing the bottom rebound rhythm correctly and going long with the trend effortlessly.
Currently approaching the previous high, I recommend taking profits in batches. For friends who haven't entered yet, don't rush; the market has plenty of opportunities, and avoid chasing orders impulsively. $ZEC $BTC Just now: The Aptos Foundation has committed to permanently lock and stake 210M $APT, accounting for about 37% of its holdings. Ajian reminds everyone that this is not a burn, it is just locked and staked, as the foundation still needs to support operations through the income from this portion. This kind of supply management operation can reduce short-term circulation pressure but cannot automatically create demand. Remember to distinguish clearly among locking, staking, and burning, which are three different things Completely out of positions, just watching! Empty empty empty positions, just watch the show
Morning market overview on 10.9: $BTC long positions were shaken out, daily candle not closed yet, no announcement on who takes over for now
BTC probed near 80400 last night, bounced back to 81500–82300 this morning. For now, treat it as a long lower shadow weak bearish candle, no victory declared on half a candle.
I'm out of positions today. No entries, no T1/T2, no stop loss. Being out is to review win rate first, not a lack of opinion.
In the past 12 hours on the 8th, about 684 million liquidated across the network, longs 639 million, shorts 45 million, mainly long liquidations. Another data point in 24 hours is about 769 million, 140,043 people, different time windows, not mixed.
From 85500 down to 83800, about 400 million long positions liquidated in a single hour, that was on the 6th, not last night.
Positions haven't dropped much, funding rate still slightly positive, leverage not fully cleared, not surrendering.
About 12,267 BTC transferred out from US government-related addresses, causing panic, whether they sell remains to be seen.
Back to the chart: first watch 80400–84000. 80400 is last night's low, 82000 is previous support, 84000 is first resistance, watch for a break above to consider 85000.
No confirmation, so out of positions, no chasing in the middle of the range. Will write breakeven stop loss after entry.
Longs have been taught a lesson, whether shorts take over, wait for daily candle close.
Friends passing by, please follow and like. Analysis only, not trading advice.AI companies are still competing to raise funds, but the capital market has started to settle accounts. The most cash-burning sector has finally faced the most realistic problems. On October 9, Reuters revealed that the demand for AI infrastructure financing is still expanding, with companies like SpaceX, Broadcom, and Oracle planning large-scale financing. Meanwhile, Australian AI data center company Firmus canceled its planned IPO. Last night, the US stock chip sector came under pressure, and funds began to reassess the cost and return of AI investments. What does this have to do with Web3? Traditional AI requires chips, electricity, data centers, and continuous financing. Decentralized computing power networks attempt to provide an alternative way to organize resources, but whether they are cheaper, more stable, and can truly gain paying customers depends on project operational data. 🔮 Three tokens worth tracking RENDER | GPU rendering and computing power network Direction: Waiting for bull confirmation. Observe network demand, actual usage, and whether the token price can break through the 4-hour resistance level. Only a volume breakout with simultaneous increase in open interest raises the weight of trend continuation judgment. AKT | Decentralized cloud computing Direction: Neutral observation. Focus on computing power rental demand, network revenue, and transaction volume changes. Without real business growth, relying solely on the AI concept to rise is difficult to form a long-term basis. TAO | Decentralized AI network Direction: Observe relative strength. Compare TAO and BTC 4-hour trends, contract open interest, and funding rates. Only when TAO strengthens relative to BTC and increases positions should one consider whether funds are shifting back to AI.$SOL SOL's short-term trend has clearly weakened, having fallen from around $120 in early October. On October 9, the intraday low reached $105.71, then rebounded to about $110.43, with a daily decline of approximately 5%. The $116–$117 range is a recent key support zone; if broken, downward pressure may extend to $112.50 or even $105–$110. For a rebound, it must first recover the $117–$120 range and then retake the $122–$126 resistance zone to have a chance to repair the structure. Slowing inflows into spot ETFs and the uncertain date for the Alpenglow upgrade make the short term more influenced by BTC and macro risk appetite, with volatility remaining relatively high. It is more suitable to assess support and rebound quality based on key levels.$DOGE DOGE short-term trend is weak, having fallen back from around $0.097 in early October to about $0.082–0.085 on October 9, with a decline of approximately 7%–10% over the past 7 days. The $0.081–0.082 range is a recent low zone; if broken, downward pressure may extend toward around $0.078. A rebound requires first reclaiming $0.087–0.089 and then regaining $0.090–0.093 to have a chance to repair the structure. After a short squeeze near $0.10, volume declined, and the short-term trend is more influenced by BTC and macro risk appetite, showing high volatility but sustainability still needs to be observed.The $ETH position is ready to be closed, the rebound is still ongoing, but the position is shifted to $ZEC. The pullback in the uptrend is significant, and there isn't much trapped volume ahead. Since we want to attack, let's go with the leader.
Then opened a position in $ZHONGJI. Recently, there have been too many short derivatives in A-shares, the drop is chaotic, today there was a big lower shadow, probably some news will come out over the weekend. Planning a rebound trade, not a reversal, take profits after being trapped and then exit. Can't hold for long. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 After a big drop, everyone is guessing how much further it will fall, but there is one number in the account that matters more than that—the liquidation price. It doesn’t move with the market; when the price drops one step, the gap between it and the current price narrows by one step.
This figure is usually overlooked. With 10x leverage, a 10% price drop wipes out the principal, while with 5x leverage, the liquidation price is more than 20% away. $SOL was still above 120 just a moment ago, but in two days it dropped to 105.7, a 12-point drop in one go. With 10x leverage, there’s no time to discuss market direction; even the 5x liquidation gap has been mostly eaten up.
At this point, the unrealized loss on the account is visible, but the bigger loss is that the position got liquidated directly at the liquidation price. After the drop, when the market recovers and the price returns to 110, the liquidated position cannot be recovered at that price.
Most who don’t dare to open their accounts are probably afraid to see the liquidation price column. Unrealized losses are just numbers on paper; you can hold on and wait, but once the liquidation price is touched, everything is cleared out, and there’s no chance to wait anymore.
After this drop, the first thing to do is to bring up the liquidation price and see how many points it is from the current price. Compare it with the drop over the past two days: if the liquidation price is further than the drop, the position can still hold; if it’s closer, reduce the leverage first before considering the market trend. Guessing the bottom comes later.
This number is more reliable than support levels, which everyone draws differently. The liquidation price is calculated by the exchange for you. Open your account and check it; that little uncertainty in your mind will be resolved.🔥 $ETH plummeted 2.99%, breaking below the $2,500 mark ⚡ $311 million liquidated in 24h, leading the pack with clear capital outflow ⏰ ETH/BTC exchange rate hits a new low, is Ethereum's narrative failing?
📌 Core Market · ETH 2,497.90 (-2.99%) fell below the $2,500 psychological level · Contract liquidations $311 million, accounting for 26% of total network liquidations · Trading volume shrinks 12%, bulls trapped between 2,450-2,550
📊 Geek Logic 1️⃣ Relative weakness: BTC only down 0.54%, ETH's drop is 5.5 times that of BTC 2️⃣ Ecosystem anomaly: DeFi TVL continues outflow, Layer 2 capital inflow slows
🎯 Key Support and Resistance · Support: 2,420 - 2,450 (breakdown target 2,300) · Resistance: 2,550 - 2,620 (must hold to consider rebound)
🎤 Risk Control Mindset ETH weaker than BTC, don’t catch a falling knife
👇 What will ETH do today? A. Continue to test below 2,400 B. Consolidate and recover between 2,450-2,550 C. Rebound and reclaim 2,600
$BTC $ENSO #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $BTC Market Analysis (4-hour + 1-hour K-line) 4-hour level: Recovery rebound after a sharp drop, price stands above the short-term moving average, but the medium and long-term moving averages still exert downward pressure. MACD remains in the negative zone, indicating a rebound repair after a decline, not a reversal trend. Strong resistance above at 83248, key support below at 80351. 1-hour level: Continuous oscillating rise, SKDJ enters the high-level zone, short-term bullish momentum is somewhat exhausted, with the possibility of encountering resistance and falling at any time. Capital data 1. Long-short account ratio: The proportion of long accounts is higher; many retail investors are chasing the rebound, making them prone to being shaken out at resistance levels. 2. Open interest: Open interest has significantly decreased after the previous sharp drop, indicating a large number of leveraged liquidations exiting the market. Currently, open interest is slowly recovering, showing cautious capital sentiment. 3. Active buy-sell volume: Buying power has weakened, with no incremental funds continuously entering to push prices higher. Two scenario scripts 🔻Scenario One (high probability): Price hits the 83200~83248 resistance zone and shows signs of stagnation, which is a short-term shorting opportunity. The target is first 81500, and if broken, look down to the 80350 low. 🔺Scenario Two (low probability): Volume increases and price stabilizes above 83248, opening further rebound space. Do not blindly chase longs before a breakout! Practical trading ideas ✅Do not chase the rally! Minimize operations in the 81800-82800 oscillation range to avoid frequent stop losses. ✅Short positions: Wait for a rebound near 83200, enter when stagnation signals appear, strictly use stop loss. ✅Long positions: Only wait for a pullback to 804 Pimco Warning: Could the 10-Year US Treasury Yield Hit 6%, Can $BTC Still Hold Up?
Global bond giant Pimco has issued a warning that the 10-year US Treasury yield could rise to 6% in the short term, a level not seen since 2000.
High oil prices, inflationary pressures, fiscal deficits, and AI financing demand are all piling pressure on the US Treasury market. What’s more concerning is that if leveraged funds are forced to cut losses, it could trigger a chain sell-off, further pushing yields higher.
For $BTC, this is definitely not a small matter.
A continued rise in US Treasury yields means increased appeal of risk-free assets, potentially causing capital outflows from risk assets. If yields spike rapidly, Bitcoin may also struggle to remain unaffected in the short term.
However, note that 6% is currently just a risk scenario, not a guaranteed outcome. $ETH
Next, focus on the US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and BTC key support levels. If bond market pressure escalates, don’t blindly bottom-fish; if yields retreat, it might actually give risk assets a chance to breathe.
What do you think? If the 10-year US Treasury yield really hits 6%, will BTC directly break below $80,000, or will the negative news be priced in early and then reverse to rally? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #全球长期国债收益率升至多年高位 Just saw Big Bro Maji's latest battle record, and I can only say he's really stubborn, extremely stubborn!
Last night $ETH plummeted, and Big Bro cut losses on 20,500 ETH, losing a total of $3.413 million! Over three million dollars, that amount could crush me if turned into steel coins, right? I thought Big Bro would be hurt by this cut and take a break, but he refused to give up and doubled down twice during the rebound at dawn!
Now his latest holding is 9,825 ETH (about $24.33 million), but the reality is harsh, currently floating a loss of $845,000.
The most critical thing is his liquidation price is 2430.27, only about 2% away from the current price! Just 2%, folks, basically the prick of a needle; if it dips just a bit more, tens of millions in positions will vanish into thin air, not even leaving a bone behind.
Honestly, this is pure gambler's psychology—losing and immediately wanting to add positions to break even, but the deeper you go, the worse it gets. Now he's directly being roasted on the fire.$ZEC is the most stubborn bull in this market.
Even after such a drop, the funding rate is still at the far right; I'm sweating for them.
The funding rate is still the most positive. While the entire market is deleveraging, its perpetual funding rate remains the most positive among the mainstream, indicating that longs are still adding in. This isn't courage; it's a lack of proper education.
The story is running ahead of liquidity. Its market cap has been pushed to the $20 billion level, with daily trading volume in the billions. The privacy coin narrative has indeed been repriced, but sustaining this scale relies on sentiment, not cash flow.
The ones that fall the hardest are the ones most crowded. Single-day drops exceed 10%, and seven-day drops range from 12% to 15%. The hardest falling coins are never those unwanted by anyone, but those where everyone is crowded in the same direction.
At this position, I won't touch it at all, nor will I short. Until the funding rate returns to zero, it can't be said to have fully washed out. Hello everyone, I am your old friend.
Previously, I quietly placed orders, reviewed, and digested~ From now on, I will document my life in the crypto world. When I turn 80, I will look back to see how I achieved financial freedom along the way 🤑😛.
Last night’s ETH trade taught me a lesson.
The initial short position was correct, with floating profits steadily increasing. Watching the profit curve, I started to get arrogant and thought about adding to the position to amplify gains.
But in the futures market, the biggest enemy is always your own greed. After adding to the position, the market quickly reversed, profits were given back, and the account went from profit to loss.
With 20x leverage, while amplifying profits, it also magnifies human weaknesses. When making money, it’s easy to mistakenly think it’s due to your own skill and ignore the market’s inherent uncertainty.
The market will never move according to our wishes. A single winning trade does not mean continuous correctness.
Review and reflection: After making a profit, prioritize protecting it rather than blindly adding to the position to increase size. A profitable trade is a reward from the market; the drawdown after adding to the position is a reminder from the market. The market never lacks opportunities; what’s lacking is the discipline to hold onto profits.
I feel like a fool for this move, crying now~
This afternoon, let ETH give me a wave so I can say 666 to myself $ETH short-term bearish for 1–2 weeks, with a 55–60% probability of downside, but limited room, considered a "pullback" rather than a "reversal." Current price $2,477–2,492, 24h −3%~−5.8%, 7-day −7.3%~−8.5%, 90-day +37.9%. The watershed is the 50-day EMA at $2,445–2,492, and the current price is exactly stuck here.
On 10/2, it surged to $2,777 but failed to hold, forming a double top with the 9/21 high of $2,775. It has fallen below the 20-day EMA (2,616–2,650), MACD shows a death cross, and KDJ J value is 2.42, extremely oversold. However, the price remains above the 50/100/200-day EMAs, with the 100-day above the 200-day — the mid-term structure remains intact, marking the boundary between a "correction vs reversal."
ETF net outflows have continued for 8 consecutive days, with nearly $506 million outflow in the last 5 days (the longest since January this year). Total net assets dropped from 17.78 billion to 15.64 billion (−12%). ETHA accounts for about 96% of the industry's cumulative net inflow, with 72%–100% of the outflow in the last three days coming from it. But cumulative net inflow is still +13.32 billion, and the 21-day measure is still +220 million — indicating a slowdown, not an exit. 📊 North Korean hackers stole over $1 billion in 2026, Q3 losses increased 54% quarter-on-quarter
▸ Over $1 billion: Chainalysis reported on October 1 that the $387.5 million stolen from Bitget on September 24 was attributed to North Korean-linked groups, with total North Korea-related crypto thefts surpassing $1 billion in 2026
▸ 54%: CertiK data shows Web3 losses reached $126 million in Q3 2026, a 53.9% increase quarter-on-quarter, with September alone recording $76.64 million in losses, a yearly record
▸ 95%: 95.5% of September's losses came from exploitations, with attack targets shifting from code vulnerabilities to exchange backends and cross-chain infrastructure
💡 The attackers' level of organization is surpassing the security investments of most projects. Individual users cannot change the big picture but can reduce their own exposure: cold-hot separation, least privilege, withdrawal whitelists. Cat Wallet's AI risk alerts and similar tools are valuable because they turn "invisible risks" into actionable steps.
#Web3Security #Hackers #IndustryTrends