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$FIL $FIL is forming a descending wedge poised for a breakout.
Once the weekly chart confirms a break above the resistance line, it will no longer be just a short-term rebound but a mid-term trend reversal.
The history of surging from $20 to $240 in 2021 is right before us.
Currently, it is recovering from the bottom, with capital and attention flowing back.
Stepwise targets: 3 → 10.5 → 26 → 48, with an extreme bull market target of 240.
Targets are only resistance references, not guarantees.
Key observation: whether it can break the long-term downtrend.
If the AI+DePIN+decentralized storage narrative explodes, storage infrastructure FIL is worth continuous tracking.The three brothers are "squeezing into the subway" again 😂
BTC, ETH, and ZEC are all clustered near key positions, and the technical indicators are converging more and more. The biggest taboo now is to jump the gun; in the next 48 hours, the direction will most likely be given.
BTC current price is 85197, with 84433 as the short-term lifeline. Holding above that looks toward 85513; a breakthrough could push it to 88000; if it falls below 84433, watch for 82800, or even 80811.
ETH current price is 2696, with 2680 as key support. Holding above that looks toward 2754; a breakthrough then targets 2830; if it falls below 2628, watch for a pullback to 2576.
ZEC current price is 1323, showing short-term renewed strength, with focus on whether it can continue to rally with volume.
On the macro side, the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meeting minutes will be released; capital flow shows BTC ETF returning to inflows, while ETH remains relatively weak.
Don’t guess the direction; wait for the daily chart to give the answer.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Currently, regarding Bitcoin $BTC and Ethereum $ETH, I consider the medium-term outlook to be slightly bullish, but the short-term outlook is more sideways. In fact, the market currently shows that it still crashes wildly on good news. This indicates that the current economic data is not bad enough to trigger a recession, but not strong enough for the Federal Reserve to continue with aggressive hawkish policies. Looking at Bitcoin's condition, it is relatively healthy because the market has repe🐳 Whale Maji Is Buying Again — The Market Positioning May Be Changing Quietly! Whale Maji appears to be rebuilding his portfolio, with total holdings now back around $152M. The latest allocation is definitely worth watching. 👀 🐋 Current Portfolio 🟠 $BTC : ~$26.5M 🔵 $ETH : ~$103M 🟣 $HYPE : ~$16.8M 🟢 $PUMP: ~$6.1M 📉 Unrealized P&L: approximately -$1.25M ⚠️ Margin utilization: around 81.5% After previously reducing exposure, Maji now appears to be building his positions back up. One interes🔥 To be honest, with $BTC rising like this, I'm starting to get a bit anxious.
📈 I used to think BTC would definitely pull back after reaching a certain level, but not only did it not drop, it kept pushing higher.
🚀 ETH is also accelerating, ZEC is back in an uptrend, and SOL is gaining momentum as well.
At this point, the most tormenting thing isn't the losses, but rather—you clearly see the price getting stronger, yet you don't know whether you should change your original judgment.
🪙 If BTC really rockets to 100,000, many short positions will become increasingly painful.
😮💨 But if this is just an emotion-driven rebound, those chasing at the top will also suffer.
🍚 So for now, I won’t hype a bull market nor boldly call a top. What I can do is control my position size and avoid letting one wrong call wipe out all previous profits.
The market always has opportunities; there’s no need to catch every single move.
What’s your current position—long, short, or flat? #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 The direction of $SOL looks smooth, but the trading volume is casting doubt on this trend.
Currently, the 1-hour volume is only 0.64 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour volumes relatively strong. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candlestick to confirm.
The current price is 121.46, about 1.65% away from the 1-hour support at 119.46, and about 0.41% from the resistance at 121.96. There is no shortage of directional guesses here; what’s lacking is the sustainability after the price truly crosses the boundary.
My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 121.96 can the short-term initiative be regained; if it breaks below 119.46, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 116.73. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 123.76 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
To continuously track this segment, just remember 121.96 and 119.46. I will come back in the next round to check if the judgment has been overturned by the market.
When direction consistency and insufficient volume conflict, which do you trust more?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Crypto Bull speaking.Brothers, I’m going long on $MUBARAK this round, first riding the trend to take some profit at 0.9, then reversing to short!
MUBARAK current price is 0.075148, up 20.59% in 24 hours. I entered a long at 0.074664, currently floating a 2% profit.
The long-short ratio is 53% longs to 47% shorts, with longs slightly dominant. Buy orders accumulate between 0.075130 and 0.075148 below the market, with the largest single order at 10.70K. Although there are many sell orders above, they are mostly small retail orders that break easily on a surge.
On-chain data shows the top two addresses hold a combined 68.57% of the token supply, indicating high concentration of chips in large exchange wallets, so the upward momentum remains. This rally is part of a collective rebound in meme coins, coupled with increased open interest in contracts, meaning short-term momentum is not yet exhausted.
I’m holding my long entered at 0.074664, targeting profit-taking near 0.9. At the high point, I’ll wait for it to lose steam and then reverse to short. Focusing solely on this coin itself, going with the trend.
$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 i am the mid-term intelligence guy. This 100 million barrels is not to "rescue oil prices," but to anesthetize the market: the US and Iran are pushing the risk of the Strait of Hormuz to the forefront. When Brent surges, the G7 releases reserves to suppress inflation, stabilize election prospects, and prevent recession expectations. From a mid-term perspective, releasing reserves is a one-time supply and does not change the underlying geopolitical premium— as long as the Iranian route remains un🌙 Shorts Are Loaded — Now We Wait for Midnight! Brothers, the big players have been pushing hard today, but $SAND is starting to show signs of losing momentum. I’ve opened a 15x short with an average entry around $0.0781. Current price: ~$0.077 💰 Floating profit: 1,000U+ 📈 Return: ~23% Earlier, when SAND pushed above $0.08, it really made the bears uncomfortable. But looking at the structure now, the $0.08299 area has clearly been a strong ceiling. Today’s high only reached around $0.08035, a$ICP has closed above the high point; let's see if it can hold steady
In the short term, the trend is expected to continue upward, as the price has already closed above the reference range. The previous hours' high and low points were 3.4 / 3.332 USDT, and the just-closed 5-minute candlestick is at 3.426 USDT. Now we need to observe if it can hold steady, rather than rushing to chase.
Regarding volume, the last 15 minutes have been noticeably more active compared to the previous hours. Activity has increased, but the volume expansion itself does not change the fact that the high point has been surpassed. If the price later falls back into the previous range, this upward outlook will be withdrawn.$PONS Robinhood's capital outflow is too severe
pons earnings hit a new low again
only 140,000u left in one day
while the sol chain is still growing
pump steadily earns 2.5 million u every day
stonk's share is only 15% left with more than 500,000u earnings
including BSC's butterfly also has 400,000u earnings per day
Robinhood's boss is a rookie
knocked down by Binance couple of punches
still can't get up until now10.4 Chen Jie Weekly Market Outlook
Last Friday's non-farm payroll night showed an extreme bait-and-switch shakeout: intraday it once surged to 4226, then the market suddenly collapsed sharply, plunging vertically over a hundred points at the close, finally settling at a very low 4139. Although official reserves remained steady (+20.22 tons), gold ETF holdings turned back to net outflow of -0.85 tons after the spike, indicating the main force's clear intention to cash out at high levels under the cover of the non-farm payroll boost.
The weekly K-line failed to rebound to the weekly Bollinger middle band (4279), closing with a very long upper shadow hanging man bearish candle, showing the early formation of a medium- to long-term double top, fully opening the downside gap.
On Friday, the daily K-line surged to 4226 then closed with a large bearish body, engulfing the previous three days' rebound bullish candles, directly pressing down on the daily Bollinger lower band (4113). MACD green bars expanded for the second time.
The 4-hour Bollinger middle band (4167) was broken by the candle body, the 12-hour Bollinger lower band points to 4074, and any short-term technical rebound will face heavy resistance from the middle bands of various cycles.
Trading Strategy
Short near 4165-4195, target 4115-4065-3965, stop loss at 4238 #The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will release September meeting minutes $XAU After BTC fell below, it reclaimed 85,212, but the rebound lacks volume
The previously given $85,212 invalidation line was first closed below, then reclaimed. BTC has temporarily returned to the old range; judging direction based on a single breakout candle is prone to being interrupted by back-and-forth oscillations.
From 20:00 to 21:00, it closed at 85,124.5; from 21:00 to 22:00, it returned to $85,244.4. However, the volume in the latter hour was 47.02 BTC, only 52% of the previous hour. The reclaim has price evidence, but the continuation strength remains to be verified.
I will first view it as a range repair: if the subsequent 1H close surpasses 85,399.8 with volume exceeding 47.02 BTC, then the rebound continuation is confirmed; if it closes again below 85,105.7, the repair judgment fails.
With such a low-volume reclaim, would you require a pullback to hold 85,212 before recognizing the breakdown as a failure?
Source: OKX spot BTC-USDT 1H closed, confirm=1; as of October 4, 22:00 Beijing time, same caliber for adjacent hours.
Crypto assets are high risk and do not constitute investment advice.🔥 $SOL stands at 121 USD, blocked once by the 125 wall, will it get through next time?
⚡ Institutional buying was 188 million USD a week ago, now only about 800,000 USD this week, $BTC buying is also cooling down
⏰ A logical chain explaining SOL's next move, also worth a look for $ETH holders
🔍 Logical chain
1️⃣ Phenomenon: Up about 14.6% in September, surged to about 125 at the end of the month then pushed back, closing near 118, back to 121 at the start of October
2️⃣ Reason: Pushed up by institutional funds. Last week net inflow was 188 million USD, almost zero this week, with about 5.9 million USD outflow on Thursday. When buying slows, the rally stalls
3️⃣ Deduction: Without institutional buying returning, 125 is hard to break at once; if it returns, then 135 is possible
4️⃣ News: Alpenglow upgrade and Fiserv stablecoin platform launch are positives, but news can't replace funds, buying support is needed
🎯 Key levels: Above 125, 135 | Below 117, 114
Do you think SOL can get past 125 this time? Let's discuss in the comments 👇
$SOL $BTC $ETH #Solana主网提速，节点门槛会否上升？ #山寨永续未平仓量21个月来首次超过BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #imf allocates funds to El Salvador and exempts excess BTC purchases
[Old Leek Observation]
The IMF "opened a door" for El Salvador's $BTC, but did not allow it to continue using government money to buy.
This time, the IMF approved an immediate allocation of about $138 million to El Salvador, while granting an exemption for previously unmet Bitcoin accumulation conditions. The real interesting part is the reason behind the exemption.
El Salvador provided documents to the IMF explaining that the newly added BTC previously came from private donations, not public funds purchases. The IMF accepted this explanation. But this does not mean El Salvador can continue to buy BTC indefinitely in the future.
The latest IMF document clearly states: apart from the already recorded private donations, no new BTC accumulation is expected in the future. Meanwhile, the IMF also requires El Salvador to continue reducing government involvement in Bitcoin-related activities and to increase transparency of public sector crypto asset holdings.
So the real signal this time is not:
"The IMF allows El Salvador to continue buying BTC."
But rather:
The IMF is beginning to accept the fact of "sovereign states holding BTC" itself, but requires such holdings to gradually move away from direct government funding and operations. This is actually more noteworthy for other countries that want to put BTC on their national balance sheets.#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
The key point is not that BTC touched 87,000, but that institutional funds have truly returned.
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of 6.34 billion USD in Q3, compared to a net outflow of 5 billion USD in Q2, reversing the capital flow by over 10 billion. BTC rose nearly 43% this quarter.
Price increases are not scary; with incremental funds continuously entering, shorts find it hard to gain momentum.
87,000 is an important threshold; once it holds firmly, the discussion will no longer be about rebound heights but about recalculating the bull market potential. Maintain a short-term bullish bias. 🔥After experiencing a liquidation of over $90,000 once, I now have only two words for the market: survive.
📉This market loves to create illusions.
Non-farm payrolls are good, but BTC doesn't rise; gold spikes then falls back; US Treasury yields V-reverse; BTC breaks out then pulls back.
📊4-hour chart is still volatile, daily chart shows a spike with a long upper shadow, and obvious resistance appears near the previous high.
🪤There are still many long positions above 86000–86500, and on Friday spot funds saw a net outflow of 268 million.
Structurally, a false breakout plus a double top is worth being cautious about.
But I also dare not say it will definitely fall.
🚀Because I know too well what the crypto world is like: when everyone thinks it will fall, it can suddenly pull out a big bullish candle; when everyone expects a breakout, it can instantly crash down.
😮💨So now, for me, whether the prediction is right or not is no longer that important.
Survive first, then there’s a chance to turn things around next time.
Brothers, what do you want to do most now, wait for a breakout or wait for a pullback? #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 A: During the mid-phase of the bear market's gradual decline, what will the market look like for $BTC, $BNB, and $LINK?
B: BTC's base is slowly moving downwards, with each rebound weakening; BNB shows slight resistance to the decline; LINK continues to weaken along its sector, with each rebound lower than the last.
A: After such a long drop, is it close to the bottom so we can start buying in batches heavily?
B: There is no clear bottom signal in a gradual decline market; bottom-fishing risks ongoing declines that erode capital. It's better to keep cash and wait for stabilization signals.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
Minutes Night = The global asset heartbeat monitor: The Fed and ECB simultaneously revisit their September records, the market trembles in respect
On the night of October 9, traders won't watch Twitter but will focus on the simultaneous release of the Fed and ECB September meeting minutes. The policies are already in place, but "how heated the debates were back then" is the real insight: who wanted to be more hawkish, who feared employment collapse, who mentioned "one more hike," who tacitly allowed for a "rate cut in December"—between the lines are hints for the December market.
From the Fed side, the market wants to scrutinize three points:
Who gave in first on "weakening employment vs. sticky inflation";
Whether anyone opposed "holding steady in October and moving in December";
Whether the committee members are worried about the surge in long-term US Treasury yields and the strengthening dollar.
The ECB is even more conflicted: Eurozone growth is quickly cooling off, possibly with inflation pushed back by the source and exchange rate. If the minutes reveal "pause is not a pivot" and "wages are still hot," the euro and Eurozone bonds will move first, followed by jumps in the dollar/gold.
Don't believe "minutes are old news":
Decisions are conclusions; minutes are recordings of arguments. One sentence like "several members see risks skewed to the upside" can cause the Nasdaq to pull back 1%, gold to drop 2%, and US Treasury yields to rise another 5 basis points.
Retail investors beware: don't place market orders before the minutes, don't trust "interpretation alerts" headlines, wait 30 minutes for the original text to see the names of the "dissenters."
Central banks don't give direct signals, but the minutes are their beds where they accidentally talk in their sleep. The stratigraphic shards long ago recorded: what humans trample and discard in panic often becomes the hard currency of the next civilization era.
Holding a shovel to scrape away this heavy layer of sediment, the current trend of $BCH is nothing more than a precise replay on the intraday chart of the debt run after the hyperinflation of ancient Rome and the 19th-century tulip crash. There is nothing new under the sun; retail investors are frantically cutting losses in the bloody collapse layer, while I see traces of whales burying gold coins in the carbon-14 dated silence coordinates.
The lower Bollinger Band is peeling away fragile sedimentary rock, and the 1-hour oversold probe is deeply embedded in the bedrock fault. Every panic sell-off corresponds to a cheap transfer of ownership in ancient texts. When the entire city of Pompeii was covered by volcanic ash, the silver coins abandoned by the fleeing were the artifacts I packed one by one into sealed bags from the ashes.
The whole world is wailing over the collapse, but this is just an ordinary crustal subsidence in the bull-bear cycle.
- Target: $BCH 🟢
- Entry: 315.0 - 318.5
- TP1: 328.0
- TP2: 342.0
- SL: 305.0
The capitals of ancient Rome have fractured countless times, but the hardness of the stone has never changed.
#CoinMoveAlertWatching Big Bro Maji's portfolio adjustment, my biggest impression isn't "how much he earned," but how precarious his ETH position is.
First, let's talk about where he's truly skilled: selling when prices rise, buying back when they fall, never locking his positions rigidly. He cut BTC from 536 to 369, added back to 546 during recovery, reduced again to 405 at the peak, and now holds 390 — average price 84,700, liquidation price 71,600. This move was well executed, with a 15% buffer before liquidation, so no worries about volatility.
HYPE follows the same pattern: topped up from 200,000 to 226,000, sold high down to 179,000 to cut losses, now at 169,000 with a floating loss of 230,000, liquidation price 57, with an even thicker safety margin.
The problem lies entirely with ETH. The position fluctuates between 32,000 and 38,000. At the peak, there was an unrealized profit of 2.18 million USD that wasn't fully taken. Now, adding back to 37,000, not only has the unrealized profit been wiped out, but there's also a 380,000 loss.
But that's not the worst part. The worst is: **this position incurs a daily funding fee of 1.18 million USD — the money burned each day is three times the current unrealized loss.** Its liquidation price is 2,540, just over 5% away from the current price.
So don't just focus on the phrase "subtle timing." Whether the profits realized from reducing BTC positions are enough to cover the daily 1.18 million USD hole from ETH is the real calculation that matters for this account. $BTC $ETH $HYPE 🔥What does BTC look like now? Like an actor who specializes in tricking you into chasing the price.
📈Every breakout gives you hope, but just as you jump in, the price slowly pulls back.
📉From the daily chart structure, after a continuous pattern, a clear upper shadow appears. Combined with previous high-level resistance, the double top plus false breakout scenario is starting to look familiar.
💰Looking at the funds, on Friday BTC spot had a net outflow of 268 million, and there are still many trapped and chasing long positions around 86000–86500.
🥇Gold couldn’t stay safe either; after a quick rally triggered by positive news, it ultimately returned to the original consolidation zone.
🪤So the most annoying thing now isn’t the drop, but this kind of "about to break out" bull trap.
😮💨Having experienced massive liquidations, I’m already numb to the market. Short positions now feel like eating the margin of long positions—recovering some but always worried about suddenly being counterattacked.
What do you see in BTC now? Is it a buildup before a breakout, or just another fakeout? #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 🔥All the good news hit hard, but BTC still disappoints; this market really knows how to play.
📉Friday's non-farm payroll data was clearly positive, yet Wall Street didn't seem to provide sustained buying, and US Treasury yields quickly rebounded in a V-shape.
🥇Gold was the same—short-term surge on the news stimulus, then back to oscillating near support.
🪤The most frustrating is still BTC: breakouts look like breakouts, rallies look like rallies, but in the end, it doesn't let you truly break the trend.
📊Spot funds saw a net outflow of 268 million on Friday, with a batch of long-chasing chips stacked again around 86000–86500 above.
🧠The 4-hour chart still shows consolidation; the daily chart has consecutive patterns with long upper shadows, the flavor of a false breakout plus double top is getting stronger.
But here’s the problem—what if the indicators are bearish? Once sentiment ignites, it can still violently rally.
The hardest thing in crypto has never been understanding the charts, but after understanding them, whether you can still withstand the market repeatedly slapping you in the face. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Today, the high Beta divergence is even more exciting than BTC: WLD surged to 0.588 yesterday and still holds around 0.54 today; SUI dropped back from 1.18 to 1.12; LINK also retreated continuously from 14.65 to 13.9. The three previously strong directions are now competing to see who can hold onto profits the best.
#HighBeta enters secondary screening
#Strong coins start verification
$WLD is currently around 0.54, with a high of 0.583 and a low of 0.528 today. The 0.528–0.53 range has become the first support; once held, it will retake 0.55 and then look toward 0.58. The past few days have seen extreme volatility; the biggest risk now is repeated profit-taking at high levels. No chasing before it stands back above 0.55.
$SUI is currently about 1.125, with a low of 1.105 today. The 1.10–1.11 range is the first defense; only after reclaiming 1.16 upward will 1.18–1.20 be targeted. It has clearly cooled down over the past week; without retaking 1.18, it can only be considered a recovery.
$LINK is currently about 13.88, with 13.7–13.8 as the first support, and 14.1–14.3 above turning back into resistance; only after firmly standing above 14.3 will 14.6–15 be targeted.
This lineup: WLD holds 0.528, SUI waits for 1.16, LINK waits for 14.3. The coins that surged the most earlier are now undergoing verification; for a true second leg, they must first stop continuously lowering their highs. Bitcoin quickly rebounded from the 75,000 level, reaching a high of 86,900 before entering a high-level consolidation phase, currently oscillating repeatedly between 83,500 and 85,000. Inflation data below expectations briefly pushed the price to 85,600, but it retreated immediately after the surge, with selling pressure above still evident.
The funding situation is also cooling down: mainstream coin spot funds have recently seen a net outflow of about $148 million, ending the previous nine consecutive days of net inflows. Coupled with still high U.S. Treasury yields, the bulls' momentum to continue pushing upward is suppressed.
So the strategy remains the same: do not chase longs at high levels; prioritize bearish positions on rebounds. Watch the resistance above, wait for the rebound to be in place before following the trend to position, and if there is no effective breakthrough, there is still room for a pullback afterward. $BTC $ETHAfter $SNDK surged 40 times, the better-than-expected earnings report turned into a negative factor
When it first independently listed in February 2025, it was under $40; now at 1,720, it has risen more than 40 times in less than two years; year-to-date +624%, past 52 weeks +1285%. The red supply zone marked at 1,908.8 at the top of the chart is this round's high point, then it has fallen all the way back to the current support zone.
The latest non-GAAP earnings per share are $39.25, beating expectations by 13.47%; revenue is 8.97 billion, beating expectations by 6.53%; data center revenue surged 103% quarter-over-quarter, gross margin 84.6%. The performance is so good, yet the stock price fell 12.1% after hours.
This is the most typical "good news already priced in": the market has long valued it based on higher expectations, so no matter how good the numbers are, it's just "expected."
On the other hand, insiders are selling. On October 1, the Chief Legal Officer sold 600 shares at around $1,734.94, cashing out about 1.04 million. The amount is not large, but the price level is very high.
NAND is globally in short supply, AI storage demand is exploding, FY27Q1 guidance gives revenue of 10.3–10.8 billion, EPS 44–46. The problem has never been whether the company is good, but that the price already factors all this in.
Having risen 40 times, even better-than-expected results can't move it, indicating there are few marginal buyers left.
$BTC Today is the 43rd day of shorting ZEC, with 47 days left in the three-month plan. The cs coin has risen again; can we still short it??? $ZEC 1334 Current price 1334, supported by privacy narrative, rebound strength stronger than mainstream coins. RSI6=64.95 close to overbought, MACD red bars expanding, short-term bulls dominate. Resistance: 1345‑1360, previous high 1412; Support: 1300, strong support 1283. BTC: ETF funds are flowing back to support the market, but short-term indicators are o#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 The current market pricing probability for a Fed rate hike in October is about 55%. If the hike occurs, it will be the second consecutive tightening. The main risk points include:
· U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise: If the 10-year yield breaks above 5.3%, the relative appeal of the non-yield asset Bitcoin will continue to be pressured;
· ETF fund flows fluctuate: On September 30, the Bitcoin spot ETF turned to a net outflow of $148.69 million. It remains to be seen whether this is a short-term fluctuation or a signal of slowing buying;
· Regulatory alternative path: After the failure of the CLARITY Act, the SEC issued an "innovation exemption" order, providing a five-year conditional exemption for tokenized securities trading venues. This regulatory detour could become a new structural variable.
Overall, the central bank decisions in September confirmed an important trend: the crypto market's sensitivity to rate hikes is decreasing, while sensitivity to regulatory clarity and institutional capital structure is increasing. The high interest rate environment is no longer a one-way negative; the market is learning to reprice risk assets during tightening cycles. $ETH Drained the base treasury, update at 13:44 UTC: the address holding the wstETH amount drained has proven the withdrawal of 1,000 wstETH on Ethereum through Lido's official Base bridge.
The 7-day clock has now started, with the earliest request time at 13:44 UTC on October 11. There are still 782,067 wstETH remaining on Base. We continue to monitor. Ah May does foreign trade and doesn't dare to keep the US dollars she receives at home.
She converted them into stablecoins for the convenience of transferring anytime.
She doesn't know that her money was used to buy US Treasury bonds.
Yesterday, I wrote an article explaining that your USDT is essentially a disguised purchase of US debt.
When interest rates rise, the issuing company earns more.
But Ah May doesn't get a penny extra.
Her share of the profit becomes someone else's financial report.
On the same day, Old Zhou was worried in another city.
He borrowed money to buy coins, and the interest rate is floating.
When the interest rate rises a bit, he has to pay more each month.
The coin price hasn't moved, but his costs moved first.
Old Zhou didn't bet on the wrong direction.
He bet correctly, but just didn't have enough money to sustain it.
Ah May and Old Zhou have never met.
One is saving money, the other is borrowing money.
Interest rates moved both sides at once.
But note, the directions moved are opposite.
On the saving side, quietly earning more.
On the borrowing side, quietly paying more.
Whose money is the extra earned?
Where does the extra paid go?
The issuing company in the middle didn't produce anything.
It doesn't farm, doesn't run factories, doesn't move goods.
It just stands in the middle of the money.
Collects with the left hand, pays with the right, keeps a cut for itself.
The issuer profits from the spread.
So what role does the Federal Reserve play here? It is the one who changes the interest rate.
So is a rate hike good or bad for the crypto world?
This question itself is problematic.
It depends on who you are.
If you are Ah May, you hope it rises. IOTA rose about 12%, with 24-hour trading volume expanding to approximately 3.5 times the recent daily median volume, yet the perpetual contract still shows a discount of about 0.22%.
As of 21:41 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is around $0.06044, with a 24-hour high of $0.06195 and a low of $0.05374, intraday volatility about 15.3%; spot trading volume is approximately $1.99 million, with the best bid-ask spread around 0.15%.
OKEx data shows the nominal value of open interest in perpetual contracts is about $1.08 million, with the current funding rate around 0.01%. The price is about 2.4% below the intraday high, but no premium has formed on the contract side, indicating the rise is accompanied by volume expansion, yet the long-buying sentiment is not overly crowded.
My judgment is that this strong momentum is more like a turnover continuation driven by spot trading. The most common misjudgment is to treat the discount directly as a safety cushion; the volume expansion may also be just a short-term pulse and does not prove that buying pressure will persist.
Next, watch $0.06195 and $0.058. If the previous high is broken and trading remains active with a moderate funding rate, the structure may continue; if it falls below $0.058 and the discount widens, the current judgment fails.
$IOTA #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负
For this wave of Bitcoin, what I think is most worth watching is not that it touched 87,000 again.
It's that the money really came back.
In Q3, the net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs was about $6.34 billion, while in Q2 it was still a net outflow of about $5 billion.
One in, one out, a difference of over $10 billion. 😂
What's even more interesting is that BTC itself rose about 43% in Q3.
So for now, I’m not too eager to be bearish on this round.
Price increases aren’t scary; what’s really hard to short is when new money keeps flowing in as the price rises.
87,000 is still that barrier.
If it really holds here, I feel the question won’t be "how far can the rebound go" anymore.
Instead, it will be whether the market should start recalculating the bull market. $BTC Big Brother Maji continues to add to his $BTC long position
Latest data today
Added about 90 BTC, total holdings reached 380 BTC
Position value rose to 32.3221 million USD
Current unrealized profit about 120,000 USD
$ETH total holdings unchanged at about 36,000
Position value unchanged at 97.5942 million USD
Current unrealized profit about 389,500 USD
HYPE position unchanged at about 173,000
Position value about 15.66 million USD
Unrealized profit 141,500 USD
$PUMP fully liquidated, big profit of 800,000 USD! Storm clouds are gathering, brothers, $ZEC is now a typical bull trap. Be very careful when bottom fishing now, don't rush to become the bag holder.
ZEC is currently priced around 1,300, with a slight 24-hour increase, but this rebound lacks volume support and no increase in positions. Price rises without position increases indicate a rebound, not a trend. The 4-hour RSI is only 39, still in the bearish zone.
The news is all bad: Grayscale Zcash ETF saw a weekly net outflow of $93.56 million, the first since its listing; Bitget hacker transferred 2,746 ZEC into privacy pools, raising compliance risks. Institutions are withdrawing, retail investors are taking over.
Technically, key support is at $1,233; a daily break below means $1,155 or even lower. Resistance above is strong at $1,370; failure to break through is a shorting opportunity.
$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 🚨 ETH bulls, don’t celebrate too early. This rebound could be the trap.
ETH keeps getting rejected around $2,780, and every push higher gets sold back down. That’s not strong bullish momentum—it’s hesitation.
A 2% bounce doesn’t magically mean a reversal or $3,000 next. In a weak macro environment, small rebounds can easily become exit liquidity.
For now, I’m staying cautious and keeping my short bias. If ETH finally breaks and holds above resistance, I’ll reassess.
#DailyOrbit It now feels more like a probing period after a shakeout, not a rally-chasing phase, nor a comfortable consolidation phase. Have you noticed that the spike that should have triggered the biggest sell-off never came down? I watched the 15-minute chart all night; BTC slowly climbed back to around 85,000 from the lows and then moved sideways. This sideways movement isn’t boring; it’s digesting. New crypto custody regulations are about to be released in the US, potentially loosening restrictions on compliant funds and advisors holding client assets. Banks are teaming up to apply for crypto trust licenses, and New York and Wyoming have even agreed on joint regulation. These aren’t minor news items; they change the friction for institutional entry. Coupled with geopolitical shocks like Iran attacking oil tankers, according to previous patterns, BTC should have crashed first, but this time it held up. More subtly, bearish news like Bitdeer selling tokens also failed to push the price down. SAND surged rapidly within minutes during the day, indicating there is still idle money willing to make localized attacks. Capital preference hasn’t fully retreated; it’s just become more selective. The bullish path is clear: regulatory friction decreases, compliance channels widen, resistance to institutional allocation lessens, and BTC has developed resilience to bad news. Once sentiment improves, ETH and altcoins may follow with recovery. But risks remain. Hester Peirce will leave office on October 2; she has been a crypto-friendly voice, and her departure means policy rhythm may not be as smooth going forward. Also, BTC moving sideways at 85,000 doesn’t mean the shakeout is over. If geopolitical tensions escalate again or ETF inflows can’t be sustained, this recovery could turn into a bull trap at any time. My own On one side, a small position in $ARX with 20x leverage gained over 50% profit. Although it’s only 30U, it feels great inside, and adding a chicken leg tonight is no problem 🍗.
On the other side, $SAND really confused me. With 600U margin, I ended up losing nearly 700U, a return rate of -120%! Is this the "charm" of full position mode? If it weren’t for the profits from ARX and some leftover funds in the account, this short position on SAND would probably have wiped me out already. Now it’s purely "using profits to cover losses," and I even have to put in extra money to hold the position. 📉
Honestly, this full position 20x leverage feeling really messes with your mindset. When you’re winning, you feel like a genius; when losing, you just want to slap yourself. At this point with SAND, should I cut losses to save myself or stubbornly hold on until a pullback? Any experienced bros with advice? Waiting online!$ZEC
Around $ETH 2680, the weekly gains and losses basically evened out, and there is currently no clear directional advantage.
I think the most unnecessary thing here is to shout "start" at every rebound and then expect a big drop at every pullback.
If the subsequent rise can surpass the previous rebound high and the pullback no longer returns to the original low, I will gradually turn optimistic.
Before that, treating it as a market without confirmed direction makes expectations easier to manage.
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously turning to outflows, cooling down capital enthusiasm
$AAVE still retains about 17% gains over the week, showing short-term strength, but this does not mean every pullback is worth buying.
I will focus on the recovery speed after the pullback. If it falls and quickly recovers, and each rebound is lower than the last, a different judgment should be made.
If it performed well before, it can remain on the watchlist; if it starts to weaken significantly later, changes must be acknowledged in time, and one should not keep convincing oneself with past strength.#贝森特：The rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with global trends Three aircraft carriers press toward the Middle East: The U.S. military is not "showing off muscles," but turning the Persian Gulf into a "powder keg ready to ignite at any moment"
This round of U.S. military deployment has turned "deterrence" into a battle formation map:
The USS Ford guards the eastern Mediterranean/Northern Red Sea, the USS Carl Vinson monitors the Arabian Sea, and the USS Nimitz/Roosevelt rotate along the outer edge of the Persian Gulf—three carrier strike groups simultaneously overlapping in the surrounding waters of the Middle East, combined with amphibious readiness groups, destroyer air defense circles, and forward-deployed strategic bombers, the Gulf has never been this densely militarized since the Cold War.
Why three carriers?
One watches the Strait of Hormuz: protecting oil tankers, deterring Revolutionary Guard fast boats/mines;
One watches the Red Sea/Yemen: suppressing Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles, protecting Israeli-Saudi shipping;
One serves as strategic reserve: monitoring Iranian enriched uranium activity, Levant escalation, U.S. bases being targeted by drones, ready to step in at any time.
What’s more intense is the "simultaneity"—normally carriers operate in relay, now they appear together in three shifts, effectively telling Tehran: you can harass in the gray zone, but don’t let "closing the strait" turn from Twitter threats into action. Iran is not backing down either: underground missile cities, saturated anti-ship attacks, proxy networks fully activated.
But the real ones paying the price are not the two governments, but Asian refineries, European diesel traders, and Gulf port insurance premiums—Brent crude first dropped 2%, and the Cape of Good Hope route is congested again.
The three carriers are not there to start a war, but to make the opponent "blink before firing the first shot."
Yet the old historical script is: when deterrence piles up too much, a spark can ignite a firefight.Unlocks in the next 14 days are not sorted by amount, but by whether there is something to hedge selling pressure. A large amount does not equal negative news; it’s only dangerous if it unlocks after a price increase.
Only a few can be hedged. CRO (10-17) is strategic reserve, about $80 million, accounting for 2.4% of circulation, not VC coins; on 10-04, 228 million tokens were just burned, along with some income used for buyback and burn. The buyback contract is not yet completed. SEI (10-15) is about $8.6 million, less than 30% of daily trading volume, with staked ETF effective 10-23, but it has risen 56% in 30 days, let’s see if it can hold 0.0667. CC (10-05) is less than 0.4% of circulation, with Canton tokenization plus a burn proposal. HYPE (10-06) about $340 million sold OTC to institutions, locked but not disclosed, only considered conditional positive.
Wait to see after unlock, no early entry. ENA (10-05) event log says it accounts for 1.7% of circulation, external sources say possibly about 14%, project team not confirmed; underperformed BTC by 14 percentage points in 7 days, OKX holdings down 23%, watch 0.2279. ARB (10-15) routine about $18.6 million, fees already negative, only looks like a rebound if it holds 0.1884 and fees turn positive. JTO, POWER, PIEVERSE, LAYER are small scale, but the last two have a larger batch in November. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
$BTC
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will release the minutes of their September meetings next week, and how this will impact the crypto space.
Current context (2026-10-04):
The Fed raised rates by 25bp in September to 3.75%–4.00%, but subsequent weak nonfarm payrolls and downward revisions to PCE have lowered the probability of another hike in October.
The ECB was also hawkish/hiked in September; minutes will be released on 10/8, with the market watching for the pace of future hikes.
The crypto market is currently trading on the question: "Will global liquidity continue to be withdrawn?"
1. Three scenarios from the minutes and their impact on BTC/ETH
1️⃣ Hawkish minutes: Officials remain concerned about inflation, hinting at another hike by year-end
→ US Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen
→ Risk assets come under pressure
→ BTC tests support, ETH underperforms BTC, altcoins see valuation cuts
Logic: Higher risk-free rates increase the opportunity cost of non-cash-flow-generating crypto assets.
Typical performance:
BTC oscillates with a bearish bias
High Beta altcoins (like SOL, LINK, PEPE) fall more
Stablecoin inflows slow down
Futures funding rates cool off
2️⃣ Dovish/pragmatic minutes: Acknowledge weakening employment, say "wait for data"
→ Market lowers expectations for further hikes
→ Long-term US Treasury yields fall, dollar weakens
→ BTC rebounds, ETH and altcoins show greater elasticity
Logic: Improved liquidity expectations restore risk appetite.
Typical performance:
BTC initially rebounds, testing 4H/daily resistance
ETH/BTC have repair opportunities
Rotation accelerates among AI, L2, SOL ecosystem, and meme coins
ETF outflows slow or even reverse
3️⃣ "Split" minutes: Some want hikes, others fear recession
→ Market lacks clear direction, trades volatility
→ BTC ranges with more spikes
→ Crypto follows US stocks/treasuries without its own trend
This is the most common scenario. Minutes won’t rewrite trends but amplify existing macro pricing.
2. ECB minutes as a "secondary variable"
If ECB is hawkish:
Euro weakens, dollar strengthens → bearish for crypto
Global central banks withdrawing liquidity simultaneously → risk asset valuations adjust downward
If ECB hints "France/Eurozone growth is weak, no more hikes ahead":
Dollar’s upside is limited
Global liquidity expectations marginally improve
Indirectly positive for BTC
3. Practical implications for crypto traders
Don’t treat minutes as insider info: prices move in advance; minutes only confirm or refute.
Focus on three things:
Is there consensus on "one more hike before year-end"?
Which is more feared: employment or inflation?
Will the 10Y US Treasury continue pushing toward 5%?
10Y Treasury ↑ + DXY ↑ = avoid leverage in crypto
10Y Treasury ↓ + DXY ↓ = altcoins/ETH regain elasticity
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Interpretation of WLD
I haven't mentioned WLD all day because I don't hold any positions, so I haven't written many posts about it. I've talked more about ZEC because I have positions and have been closely following it.
The issue with WLD is not whether the upward structure still exists—it does. Nor is it whether the upward momentum remains—it does.
The current challenge is just beginning. It just broke below the previous high without effective support. The 1H downward momentum has not been fully released. For now, do not bottom-fish or participate. Wait until it pulls back to 0.53 before observing again; it's not too late. Continue to wait for about 36 hours of adjustment.$XCH fully utilizes the increased disk bandwidth of PCIe4.0
Streaming performance to maximize CPU efficiency
Can also be installed as a standalone build
CLI documentation
Example commands
The following command will create an uncompressed plot (plot compression is disabled in Chia version 2.0.0). If the farmer is on a different machine, it will use the specified key and contract address. It will allocate 32 GB of DRAM cache and use the specified temporary drive (usually an SSD) and target drive. It will use default values for the remaining parameters:
chia plotter bladebit plot -t -d -f -p / c --cache 32G -n 1 --compress 0 Those playing with the dog token are still waiting to break even, while those selling the shovels have already made some moves 😂
PUMP this time is not just a single-day surge; it rose 14.67% in 24 hours, hitting a new high since "1011".
It has increased about 39% in the past 7 days and about 48% in the past 30 days.
The business is also expanding: daily transaction volume on the Pump.fun App on Solana has grown from about $5 million three months ago to over $40 million recently, roughly 8 times the previous scale.
Of course, transaction volume does not equal revenue.
More importantly, there is buyback.
Currently, the official team uses 50% of revenue for buyback and burn; from September 27 to October 3, the announced buyback amount totaled about $8.08 million.
Third-party tracking shows that as of October 4, buybacks in the past 30 days totaled about $24.7 million.
Issuing tokens, trading, collecting fees, then buying back their own tokens—the "selling shovels" story now has real money backing it.
My judgment: the trend remains strong, but having risen nearly 50% in the past month, it is more likely to consolidate first before choosing a direction.
Next, watch if around 0.006 can hold as support; upward, see if it can break through and hold above 0.00659, then test 0.007; if it falls below 0.006 and fails to recover promptly, the strength of the uptrend needs to be reassessed.
Buybacks provide buying pressure but do not guarantee a rise. Market observation only, not investment advice.At 10 o'clock, I checked the top gainers list again, and $AXS surged sharply—spot price is about 1.37, up roughly thirteen and a half points from the 24-hour open at 1.21, with a daily high touching 1.45 and a daily low of 1.19, and trading volume close to 2.7 million U.
On the perpetual side, the nominal position is about 5 million dollars, with a slightly negative funding rate, meaning shorts are paying. BTC is hovering around 85,200, and $ETH is about 2700. In the short term, watch if anyone steps in above the daily high of 1.45; if it falls back to around 1.20, don't chase aggressively.
$BTC $ETH $AXS #AXS #Axie #TopGainers #WeekendMarket
#TheFedAndECBToReleaseSeptemberMeetingMinutes #BTCSpotETFFlowsBackIn,ETHFundsContinueOutflow #Bessent:USBondYieldsRiseInLineWithGlobalTrends
#RiskWarning
The above does not constitute investment advice; manage your positions, the market carries risks. $XCH Bladebit Disk
Disk-based (HDD or SSD) CPU plotter, included with Chia 2.0
Plotting capabilities
Type: Uncompressed only in Chia 2.0, compressed starting from 2.1
Size: k32 only
Requirements
Operating System: Windows, Mac, or Linux OS (64-bit required); supports both Intel and ARM (Apple chips).
Memory: At least 2 GB available RAM, fewer buckets require up to 12 GB
Temporary Disk: 480 GB in default mode, 390 GB in default mode with alternate mode enabled; can be HDD or SSD:
SSD: Fast (NVMe supported), but consumer-grade SSDs wear out over time; enterprise-grade SSDs recommended
HDD: Slower but no wear; can plot directly to final disk
GPU: Not used
More Information
Designed for embedded or entry-level systems
Can only create uncompressed plots (C0, 101.4 GiB) in Chia 2.0 version
Uses temporary HDD or SSD storage, making it accessible to most farmers
Sequential writes better utilize SSD burst performance and reduce SSD wear by lowering write amplification
DRAM write cache can significantly reduce SSD writes and can use any additional increments (no minimum required) My words are just a kind of bias, but whose aren't? Volume One: Scrap Iron and Blind Following (2015-2019) I am purely a technical analyst; I don't listen to news or look at fundamentals. In my seven years of market trading, I often recall my initial self. In the epic A-share bull market of 2015, I knew nothing about stocks. But amid the frenzy of all investors, I joined in. I entered the market with 30,000 yuan, randomly bought a stock, and gained 20% profit. Just a few months later, the stock market crash hit. At that time, people around me were analyzing what the company did and how much profit it made; I was clueless and found it very profound. Later, working at a company, I learned some fundamental concepts. You need to see if revenue and profit are growing, this year better than last year, last year better than the year before. Stocks bought following this logic still lost money. I still didn't understand. At the end of 2017, with the Web 3.0 boom, Bitcoin's price surged to 20,000 USD. Some friends made money buying mining machines early on, so I wanted to invest too. I bought six machines at 25,000 yuan each. A year later, I mined one Bitcoin. But the price dropped from 20,000 USD to 3,000 USD, and the value of that Bitcoin only covered the monthly electricity cost of the mining machines. The mining machines basically became scrap iron then, so I sold both the Bitcoin and machines at the lowest point. The 150,000 yuan investment was left with only 1,100 yuan. In 2019, as Bitcoin's price started to rise steadily, those friends began trading contracts, and I also deposited a few thousand yuan. Due to the built-in 10x leverage, I doubled my money in a confused way, and again confusedly... October could be the month with the most significant volatility in the US stock market this year, with employment, CPI, the Federal Reserve, and major tech earnings all clustered together. Here are the key dates organized: October 2, September non-farm payrolls. The 10-year US Treasury yield is already near 5%. If non-farm payrolls significantly exceed expectations, the market will reprice "higher rates for longer"; if it cools noticeably, tech stocks might rally first. October 7, September FOMC meeting minutes. The focus is on how large the internal disagreements on inflation are. The last meeting had two dissenting votes; the minutes will reveal the depth of the rift. Starting October 13, Q3 earnings season kicks off. JPM, Goldman, and Citi lead the way. Banks are the best economic thermometer: credit card delinquencies, corporate loans, and investment banking will tell you if the economy is truly cooling. October 14 and 15, CPI and PPI on consecutive days. The most important 48 hours in the first half of the month—if inflation rises, yields will continue to push higher, putting further pressure on tech valuations; if inflation falls, the market will have room to breathe. Late October, major tech earnings week. $TSLA leads, followed by $GOOGL, $META, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon. This time, my focus isn't on how many points they beat estimates by, but rather: whether Google's Cloud and AI capital expenditures can continue to deliver, how much Meta's AI investment translates into advertising and user growth, whether Azure and AWS are still accelerating, and for Tesla, directly looking at deliveries, profit margins, and RobI’m not looking at PONS’s K-line today; the more I look, the more frustrated I get 😭
I went to check out Pons Launchpad and found something pretty ridiculous: PONS itself has dropped about 30% in the last 7 days, but the meme-posting bots below haven’t stopped at all.
There are now over 167,000 tokens climbing the graduation curve on the platform, with more than 2,300 actually having graduated. An earlier on-chain statistic from Bitquery is also shocking: from August 3 to September 3, in just one month, Pons created 207,000 tokens, with nearly 20,000 tokens launched per day in the last week.
The most heartbreaking part is, despite all the hype, making money is a completely different story.
Bitquery counted over 310,000 participating wallets at the time, and 66.8% ended up with less money than they put in. The project creators collectively took about $9.7 million in fees, while the median creator only earned $15.73.
This data really woke me up.
Pons now feels like a casino packed at 3 a.m.: the price of PONS at the door has already crashed, but inside, new Memes keep popping out every minute.
So next time I see someone in the group say "$PONS new coin, should I rush in?", I might first ask:
Which number are you talking about? The ones just launched today might already be too many to count 😭Many people keep flipping through my positions this week, but this is actually a negative example. The net exposure switched back and forth several times within a week. You might think this is flexibility, but most of the time it's just being led by the market. The ones who truly make money are never the quickest hands; it's those few times when you confidently bet and hold after correctly identifying the direction. The sense of direction in $BTC is always more valuable than precise entry points. Frequent in-and-out trades only grind your profits down to fees. How many times have you changed your mind this week?