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US Treasury Yields and the Crypto Market
Long-term US Treasury rates remain high, with resistance above BTC still present
Besant states that the rise in US Treasury yields is a global trend and there is no need to panic excessively.
However, the market’s real focus is on: inflation stickiness + fiscal deficit + US Treasury supply, factors that continue to pressure long-term yields. The 10-year and 30-year rates remain elevated, which is still unfavorable for risk asset valuations.
For the crypto market, a high interest rate environment sets a valuation ceiling. ETF fund slowdown combined with profit-taking at highs means BTC needs to be cautious of short-term pullbacks after rallies.
📌 BTC focus: resistance near 86,500
📉 If it breaks below 85,000, it may further test 84,500–85,000
🛑 Short-term traders must control position size, strictly stop losses, and avoid stubbornly holding against the trend.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#BTC #USTreasuryYields #CryptoMarket #Macro
Strengthen macro logic and market transmission
Compress repetitive interest rate expressions
Make BTC key levels clearer Yesterday, BTC surged to 87,200, but today it was pushed back near 84,500; ETH dropped from a high of 2,778 to 2,660, and SOL also fell from 123.8 all the way back to 118. The most noteworthy point is not the drop itself, but that the funds chasing the breakout yesterday are immediately being tested today—whether this is a normal pullback or another false breakout?
#BTC pulls back after surge
#Major coins retest support
$BTC is currently around 84,500, with today's low already hitting near 83,900. The 83,800–84,000 range is the first support; if it holds and then reclaims 85,000, there will be a chance to retest 85,500. Only after firmly standing above 85,500 can we talk about yesterday's high of 87,200; if 83,800 breaks, watch out for a return to the previous consolidation zone.
$ETH is currently about 2,667, with today's low at 2,651. The 2,650–2,660 range has become the most immediate defense line; above, 2,700 turns into the first resistance, and only after firmly standing above that can we look at 2,730–2,750. After failing to break 2,778 yesterday, ETH is now clearly weaker than BTC.
$SOL is currently about 118.6, with 117–118 as the first support. On the upside, watch 120–120.5 first; only after firmly standing above that can we look at 123.
This lineup: BTC holds 83,800, ETH waits for 2,700, SOL waits for 120.5. Yesterday we watched for a breakout, today we watch for a pullback. A truly strong market won't give back all the breakout gains.$ETH Ethereum is really a strange coin.
When it was at 1600, the market was pessimistic, and everyone was certain it would drop to 1000; when it pulled up to 2000, the sentiment reversed completely, and the whole network started shouting targets straight to 5000.
The essence is not that the coin itself changed, but that market sentiment follows the price. Price determines opinion, not the other way around.
When it falls, everyone only sees the negatives and magnifies all risks; when it rises, all they see are positives, constantly raising expectations.
Many traders get trapped here, building positions based on market sentiment. They get washed out by panic at low points and attracted by optimistic narratives at high points. Just like my previous lesson with ZEC, making subjective predictions on levels and fighting the trend head-on can easily lead to heavy market losses.
As a major market benchmark, Ethereum's price is more a result of macro interest rates plus market capital consensus. Level predictions are mostly products of sentiment and should not be used as trading bases. Don't be led by the market's collective emotions; distinguish narrative from real trends, control leverage, and that is the most important.$SUI
SUI Price Trend Forecast for This Month (October)
SUI has already experienced a rebound of over 50% in September, rising steadily from the low to around 1.27. The key event this month is the Basecamp Developer Conference in Singapore on October 7-8, which is the biggest catalyst for the month.
The overall rhythm is most likely: pre-conference speculative surge → realization of positive outcomes from the conference, followed by a volatile pullback, with the monthly trend mainly oscillating within a range; a sustained one-sided rally is unlikely.
Key Price Levels
• First Resistance: $1.27–$1.30 (September's previous high, with a large amount of trapped positions; this is the most important threshold this month). Only if volume supports a stable break above this level is there a chance to challenge around $1.42; if volume is insufficient after breaking through, profit-taking is likely to cause a sharp drop.
• Core Support: $1.02–$1.07, this is the dense support zone of chips from this rally; if it falls below $1.02, the current rebound structure will be broken, potentially leading to a further retest near $0.9.
Two Scenarios
1. Optimistic Scenario (BTC market stabilizes, major updates released at the conference)
Funds will position ahead of the conference, pushing prices up to test $1.28–$1.3. If there are substantial technical or ecosystem benefits, prices could briefly surpass $1.4; however, after the conference, profit-taking will likely cause a pullback, making a sustained one-sided rally difficult.
2. Neutral/Cautious Scenario (more probable)
Market expectations for the conference are priced in early, following the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern. Prices will face resistance around $1.25 during a slight pre-conference surge, then oscillate between $1.07 and $1.28.【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜BTC October 4】
Tonight's focus is not "mindlessly chasing once it surpasses 85000," but rather whether 85000 can turn from a false breakout resistance into support.
Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) original view: After BTC failed to break through 85000, it returned to the range, squeezing out bulls chasing higher; he also marked liquidity above at 87500 and a base below at 82000.
Cheds / BigCheds (@BigCheds) original view: BTC still holds the main uptrend support, with the daily EMA8 still as a reference. Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) reminds that weekend rallies may retrace, only a rhythm risk.
Editorial analysis: Binance spot around 85234, perpetual around 85190, funding rate 0.003878%, OI about 98555 BTC. Main route: as long as it does not fall back below 84500, first watch for 85000 support conversion, then observe 87500; if it breaks below 84500 and fails to recover, the route fails, and downside risk at 82000 rises. Weekend liquidity is thin, prices easily sweep back and forth, avoid chasing with high leverage, waiting for confirmation is more important than guessing direction, do not chase orders.
#BTC #ETH #OKBBorrowing money worldwide is becoming increasingly expensive.
The long-term government bond yields of major economies like the US, Germany, and Japan have surged to multi-year or even multi-decade highs.
This situation will eventually affect many everyday things:
mortgages, corporate financing, stock valuations, Crypto, VC...
Because when "almost risk-free money" starts to get expensive,
all risk assets must reconsider one question:
Why am I worth you taking this risk for?$SOL narrative is being reshaped: shifting from merely a “fast chain” to an institutional-grade financial infrastructure track.
Looking at contract data: SOL has $7.29 billion in open interest; as the price rises, leveraged funds continue to increase positions without cashing out.
The liquidation structure is distinctive, with 87% of recent liquidations being short positions. Many traders are shorting in the 113-118 range, collectively viewing 120 as strong resistance and the rise as a false breakout.
When the market collectively agrees that “120 is the top,” it is often the most dangerous time for shorts. The large accumulation of short positions below 120 can create potential short squeeze momentum. Coupled with continuous improvement in SOL on-chain network data, the bulls have fundamental support.$BTC daily MACD's top divergence from a few days ago has been digested! This is a critical signal.
Normally, after a top divergence appears, the market tends to undergo a correction, often with a considerable range.
However, this time after the top divergence appeared, the price slightly increased, and the high-level consolidation held without a retracement. The indicator has been almost fully digested.
This is a signal that requires serious attention.
The price hasn't dropped much, while time is helping to repair the indicator, and the pressure from the top divergence is gradually being absorbed.
So, my outlook is as follows.
There are roughly two directions: one is a pullback to around 82800 to retest the support at 82800, confirm safety below, and then look for an opportunity to break upward; the other possibility is no pullback, continuing the upward momentum directly to break through toward 87000.
Once the range breaks upward and holds, the next phase could target the 89000 to 90000 range.
Currently, I am not optimistic that the coin price can hold above 90000 in the short term, at least not within this year.
Because, according to on-chain data statistics from relevant institutions, the spot market cost over the past one to two years has been around 89000.
Breaking above 89000 means a large amount of trapped positions will be released, and the current market environment is not sufficient to attract such a huge absorbing force to take on the upper chips!
Therefore, although I am bullish, the upside space is limited. I expect only about a 5% rise, which makes entering long positions at this time somewhat unprofitable.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!"Once the ETF turned, the group chat exploded: Are institutions quitting? Don't translate the phrase "net outflow" as "bearish" just yet.
The previous wave of continuous inflows wasn't all from believers. A significant portion was neutral arbitrage: long on spot ETFs, short on futures, locking in the basis. The market's ups and downs didn't affect them; they only profited from the pricing difference.
Now that the basis has been erased and profit margins are gone, this batch of funds naturally settles and exits. How much of the ETF outflow is this kind of "work done, leaving" money? Not a small amount. Mistaking it for institutional retreat leads to misjudgment.
What really needs attention is the rhythm: a single day of outflow is just turnover; continuous outflows look like a retreat. Calling it bearish on day one is too hasty.
ETH weakening first is not surprising either; when funds contract, high-volatility assets are reduced first. This is an elasticity tax, not a bearish factor unique to ETH.
So the question isn't whether to run or not, but which segment of the profit you capture. Arbitrageurs earn from the basis, long-term holders earn from the cycle. Don't use others' exit signals to make decisions for your own positions.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $LIT
Can a rebound of more than 2% be considered a confirmed stop to the decline?
Today's observed 24-hour range is 3.416—3.7303, with a window change of about +2.81% and a trading volume of approximately 10.06 million USDT.
A recovery from the low point and a positive return provide a repair signal. Repair does not mean the previous selling pressure has completely disappeared; if the low point moves down again later, the rebound logic needs to be narrowed.
If the price later surpasses 3.7303, holds on a pullback, and trading volume cooperates, I will increase my judgment of continuation; if it breaks below 3.416 and the rebound cannot recover, I will lower my judgment. The above boundaries come from this observation window and need to be rechecked after market changes.Brothers, many people have been trapped short by $ZEC and are now overshadowed, with a lot of crazy bottom-fishing after the drop. Actually, think about it, the hype around ZEC has faded, and bottom-fishing now can easily get you trapped.
The core is still short selling. According to the latest news, Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF had a net outflow of $93.56 million in a single week, marking the first weekly net outflow since its listing at the end of August. The cumulative net inflow shrank from $268 million to $212 million. Institutions are withdrawing while retail investors are still taking the baton; this is the direct driver of this drop.
Looking at the market, ZEC is currently priced around 1305, down more than 20% from the high of 1698. The long-short ratio shows more short accounts, but the long positions are more concentrated in large holders—big players are quietly selling while retail investors are still foolishly buying. Price rises but positions don't increase; this is called a rebound, not a trend.
Technically, the 4-hour RSI is only 39, still in the bearish zone. The key support is at $1233; if the daily close falls below this level, the downside could be $1155 or even lower.
$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Tonight P73 CryptoMarket Monitor sent a new signal of a crypto market correction for the fall. Specifically, 23 assets from the TOP-200 show a potential high mark on the 3-day TF. Auto-forecast from the algorithm: "ATTENTION - high probability of a downward reversal and a noticeable medium-term market decline, starting in the next few days or week. During this time, the high may still be updated. Reason - potential HIGH marks on the 3-day TF for a large number of assets." Showing a third, 8 assets from today's 23, shown $BCH perpetual 50x long position, opened at 311.1, now at 317.5, floating profit +102.86%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 311 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was buying support. After confirming the bottom was valid, I decisively went long on the bullish candle. Using 50x leverage, the position size was pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +102.86%, and the trailing stop has been moved up to 315. Not greedy, locking in profits first.
$BTC $SOL #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $SAND perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.0758, currently at 0.07469, floating profit +73.21%.
After a failed rally near 0.0758, a large bearish candle smashed through support directly. I followed the short accordingly, setting stop loss above 0.078. The 50x leverage position is very small, the trend is much weaker than expected, the percentage rose by more than 70%!
Moved the stop loss up to 0.075, now watching if 0.074 can be broken.
$ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特: The rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with the global trend. Folks, what Besent is basically saying is, U.S. Treasury yields are high, so no need to panic.
The 10-year yield has hit 5.34%, the highest since 2002, and the 30-year yield is also at a 20-plus-year high. Despite poor nonfarm payrolls, yields only dipped slightly before bouncing back. What does this mean? It means the mountain weighing on risk assets can't be moved in the short term.
Besent says this is a global trend, not just a U.S. issue. The subtext is that the Treasury Department doesn't plan to intervene aggressively; high interest rates will persist for a while. As long as the rise isn't uniquely abnormal in the U.S., they see no problem.
This directly impacts our big coin. With risk-free yields above 5%, institutions can comfortably earn interest without taking big risks in crypto. The main reason the big coin has been stuck around 86,000 for so long is this. Unless long-term rates truly turn downward, risk assets will struggle to launch sustained, independent rallies. $BTC $ETH $SOL During these National Day days, the market fluctuations haven't been very large, a rare chance to relax a bit.
I previously took on a challenge, planning to trade from May until the end of December, turning 25u into 3200u. So far, I've completed one-third, and my account just surpassed 1000u.
To be honest, this result is a bit disappointing; I overestimated myself at the start. But there's still a chance, so I'll do my best and leave the rest to fate.
I remember when I first started trading contracts, I was so eager that I felt uncomfortable if I didn't open a position for a day. Every morning after waking up, I'd first find some coins to invest in before doing any research.
Lately, I've reached the age where I no longer chase pumps or panic sell. After all, the lessons were painful, so now I don't force trades. If it doesn't fit my strategy, I simply don't open positions. I'm used to staying out of the market for many days.
Let's talk about coins. My strategy is to short coins that have surged, so when there are no altcoins with big fluctuations, I get quite idle.
I actually quite like meme coins, but unfortunately, there haven't been any these days. Today I observed a few, $AXS $STRK $PUMP, and they all seem not very promising—either they pump a bit then dump, or just move sideways, which is boring.
I'll play some games for a while first, and open positions again when there's an opportunity. Hope everyone can have gains. In the previous round, I set 85.1K as the long-short decision line for $BTC. The public market temporarily gave a "stand back" result, but no trend confirmation has been given yet. Kraken quotes around 85.25K, with a 24-hour range of about 84.71K–85.41K; the price has returned above the key level, but the close and volume still need further confirmation.
Big Shot Andy's judgment has also adjusted: after multiple attempts at short positions, he views holding above 85K and returning to 85.1K as short-term bullish, recommending cautious handling of short positions. Here, I only record the change in the original judgment without packaging it as a reversal fact; currently, only the price position has been verified, not the subsequent continuation.
My adjustment is to wait for the 4-hour close to hold above 85.1K, then see if the pullback holds; if it falls back below 84.7K, the previous breakout judgment becomes invalid. I will not chase longs because of a single bullish candle, nor repeatedly test shorts in the middle. Will you wait for close confirmation or first observe the pullback support? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.$ETH perpetual 100x long position, opened at 2679.01, now at 2700.45, floating profit +80.02%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 2680 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was buying support. After confirming the bottom was valid, I decisively went long on the bullish candle. Using 100x leverage, position size pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +80.02%, and the trailing stop has been moved up to 2700. Not greedy, locking in profits first.
$BTC $SOL #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Sandwich attacks truly exploit public intent
When a user submits a large swap to the public mempool, the transaction details, slippage limit, and gas willing to pay are all exposed in advance. An attacker can first buy to push up the price, causing the user to still trade within their tolerance but at a worse price, then immediately sell to profit. The two attack transactions sandwich the user in the middle, hence the name sandwich attack. The core exploited is not a contract breach but the predictable public intent.
Setting slippage extremely high expands the extractable space, but setting slippage almost to zero is not necessarily safer either, as normal volatility may cause repeated transaction failures and gas consumption. More effective protections include limit orders, order splitting, batch bidding, intent transactions, and avoiding broadcasting replicable paths too early. If a wallet only shows "estimated received" without explaining the worst execution conditions, it hides key risks beneath the interface.
For $ETH, public execution brings verifiability but also ordering competition. Long-term solutions should not rely on requiring every user to understand bot strategies but should reduce the chances of default transaction paths being exploited. To measure whether a trading system has improved, besides fees and speed, one should also look at the deviation between actual user execution and quoted prices, especially during volatility and large trades.The head of NEAR Intents announced that approximately $3.8 million stolen has been fully returned. For affected users, this is certainly a relief and much more reassuring than just a compensation promise.
However, there was one sentence in the report that made me pause: the team said they will stop the investigation and reminded the other party to use the bug bounty channel in the future. Here, it is important to distinguish that stopping the pursuit of the attacker is not the same as stopping the technical review.
How the money was taken, why the vulnerability was not discovered earlier, and which interaction paths have been covered by the fix still need to be explained to users. This issue involved the interaction between Omni deposit and withdrawal infrastructure and the Intents contract. Recovering the stolen funds does not automatically prove that all similar issues have been eliminated.
I also dislike framing this outcome as "the hacker was ultimately kind." User funds should not rely on the attacker’s willingness to return them for protection. Taking the money and then returning it is very different from reporting the vulnerability according to the rules; such lighthearted promotion easily glosses over the risks involved in the process.
The best follow-up now is for the team to publish a verifiable incident report and fix explanation so users understand why they can trust the service again. The full recovery of funds is commendable, but security work still needs to be accounted for. I hope the next message clarifies what was fixed, rather than just announcing service restoration.
#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回 🔷 $ETH +73%, but futures are 12.5 times more active
• ETH rose from $1,560 to $2,700 (+73%) since the end of June
• Spot/futures ratio: only 8%
• Spot volume = 8% of futures volume
• Growth was not supported by spot trading
• June 27: 6.5%, October 1: 8% (minimal growth)
• Historical peaks: 45% (April), 114% (November) — then declined
• Only 3.49% of ETH on exchanges (1.16% left since June)
• Coins in staking, DeFi, treasuries
🧠 +73% with spot at 8% of futures. Price is on derivatives, not on real demandAccount Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$AXS top accounts are more bullish, but position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio is 1.51, position ratio is 0.87; the difference in the proportion of the two types of long positions has expanded by 1.35 percentage points. There are more bullish accounts, but a long position size advantage has not yet formed.$BTC perpetual 100x long position, opened at 84545.9, now at 85253.7, floating profit +83.71%.
The logic is very simple: the 84,500 integer level was tested three times without breaking, volume increased, and the bottom characteristics are obvious. Finally waited for a bullish candle to rise, going long. 100x leverage, stop loss at 84,000. The trend is very smooth, no chance for a pullback.
Trailing stop moved up to 85,000 to lock in profits. If the volume breaks above 86,000, can hold a bit longer.
$ETH $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Tom Lee: This round of crypto bull market has started, tokenization and AI applications may drive the market far beyond previous cycles
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee's latest assessment: This round of the crypto bull market has officially begun. Unlike past cycles driven by ICOs, NFT, and MEME, tokenization + AI agents will become the core engines, and the market level is expected to surpass all previous cycles.
He believes that the leading strength of crypto concept stocks in Q3 is an early signal of the bull market's start. Asset tokenization moves traditional bonds, stocks, and real estate onto the blockchain, bringing massive institutional inflows; AI intelligent agents will automatically complete payments and settlements on-chain, creating entirely new on-chain demand. This is an incremental story not seen in previous bull markets, and Ethereum will clearly benefit from this narrative in this round.
My view: This logic represents a medium- to long-term structural opportunity, but should not be taken directly as a short-term surge signal.
The biggest external constraint on this bull market remains the high yield on U.S. Treasury bonds. Even if the long-term narrative is strong enough, when macro interest rates remain high, the market will still fluctuate repeatedly, with multiple deep corrections along the way. Tokenization and AI are slow variables with uncertain implementation progress, and the narrative realization cycle is very long.
On the trading side, even if you agree with the long-term logic, do not blindly leverage. Corrections in a bull market can also be very damaging; contracts must control position sizes and avoid chasing highs; spot can be accumulated in batches on dips, while continuously monitoring two key indicators: U.S. Treasury yields and ETF fund flows. 🧑🧒 Big Brother Maji is loading up again.
Total exposure is back around $145M:
$BTC → ~$24.5M
$ETH → ~$99.4M
$HYPE → ~$15.5M
$PUMP → ~$5.65M
Current unrealized loss: ~$1.03M
Margin utilization: 83.76%
After cutting positions earlier, Maji has started rebuilding—adding 53 BTC alone. 👀
BTC + ETH remain the main positions, while HYPE + PUMP add more aggressive upside exposure.
Whale moves can offer useful clues, but they’re never a guaranteed signal for what comes next. 📊🐳
#DailyOrbit Nonfarm payrolls report done, the 29,000 increase is far below expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, causing bets on a rate hike in October to immediately recede. However, prices did not soar due to the positive news, which instead indicates the market is more concerned about the capacity to absorb.
$BTC There are still heavy sell orders above the market, making rebounds prone to becoming distribution windows. The cost-effectiveness of chasing longs at this position is low; it's better to wait for confirmation after a pullback than to catch a falling knife. News can change expectations but cannot alter the distribution of chips.
$ETH Boosted by the lowered probability of rate hikes, the mid-term dip-buying strategy remains unchanged, but similarly, one should wait for a low entry point after sentiment cools down. From a capital perspective, spot ETF flows have turned negative, heat is decreasing, and both position sizes and pace should be tightened.
On the geopolitical front, US-Iran tensions remain unresolved, and the G7 plans to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves, so risk premiums persist. The report only changed probabilities; the trend still needs to be confirmed independently. Take it slow and wait for the market to provide answers.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $BTC 84K, $ETH 2.6K, $SOL 120. The US stock market is closed for the weekend, and crypto is mostly moving sideways around these price levels. After several days of strong volatility, prices are no longer attractive for large entries. Going all in right now, even a single red candle could reverse sentiment. With institutional money taking a break, candles narrowing, and MA/EMA intertwining, placing orders now is basically paying fees to the exchange. If you want to trade seriously, wait for the US stock market to open next week and then decide. $BTC hasn't dropped to 82K yet, $ETH hasn't dropped to 2.55K yet, so just be patient and observe. Thi$UNI perpetual 50x short position, opened at 9.268, now at 9.058, floating profit +113.29%.
I've actually been watching this trade for quite a while. The 9.26 level was repeatedly tested but never broken; every time it approached this area, there was selling pressure. After confirming the top was valid, I decisively shorted on the bearish candle. Using 50x leverage, position size pushed to the extreme.
Currently floating profit is +113.29%, and the trailing stop loss has been moved up to 9.2. Not greedy, locking in profits first.
$ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $TRUMP perpetual 50x short position, opened at 2.07, currently at 2.022, floating profit +115.94%.
After a failed rally near 2.07, a large bearish candle smashed through support directly. I followed the trend to short, with a stop loss set above 2.1. The 50x leverage position is very small, the movement is much weaker than expected, and the percentage has directly flipped 1.1 times!
Moved the stop loss up to 2.05, now watching if 2.0 can be broken.
$ETH $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 First, let's review the macro schedule — next week the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will release their September meeting minutes. The media is still talking about inflation concerns, but after the softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls, the odds of a rate hike in October have dropped to around 20%. $ETH spot is roughly 2703, slightly up from the Shanghai open at 2682; the daily high touched 2708, and the daily low was 2679.
Even if the minutes sound hawkish, a rate hike may not happen immediately in the short term; don't mistake the small weekend rise as a policy implementation. First, see if it can hold above 2708; if it falls back to around 2679, don't try to hold on stubbornly. $BTC is hovering around 85,300.
$BTC $ETH #ETH #Ethereum #BTC #FederalReserve #Macro #MeetingMinutes #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice; the market carries risks, please invest cautiously. Yi Lihua: Currently still bearish but not shorting, if BTC breaks below $82,000 it may test $71,000
Latest view from Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua: We are currently in a correction phase within a bull market, bearish but not shorting. The key defense level is $82,000; if this support is effectively broken, BTC is very likely to further test $71,000.
His logic is interesting: the underlying structure of the long-term bull market is intact, but there is a short-term bull trap. The market is pressured by high US Treasury yields, putting risk assets under stress. The choice not to short is because the margin for error when shorting in a bull market is very low, and it’s easy to get stopped out by a quick rebound, so there’s no need to gamble on profiting from this downward move.
My view: “Bearish but not shorting” is a mature defensive strategy. Being bearish means not chasing highs and reducing positions to avoid correction risks; not shorting shows respect for the overall bull market trend and avoids heavy counter-trend positions. $82,000 is the current dividing line between bulls and bears; holding it means the correction is over, breaking it would trigger a leveraged sell-off and open downside space.
It’s important to distinguish: $71,000 is a target in a downside scenario, not a certainty. Going forward, focus on two signals: whether the $82,000 support holds and whether US Treasury yields continue to rise. Futures traders should not pre-place short orders but wait for a confirmed break to respond; spot traders can reduce positions to hedge and wait for the correction to stabilize before considering new entries.
Do you think BTC can hold this critical $82,000 defense line? Brothers, the longer it stays sideways, the harder it falls
Everyone can take a look at the daily chart, CAP peaked at 0.08888, and the trend has completely turned bad.
Today I did something very important: I withdrew part of my margin.
Look at the latest position chart, my margin has dropped from 6.75U to 2.75U, and the liquidation price changed from 0.147 to the current 0.10771.
Because I already have a 57% profit, I must take some off the table first to minimize principal risk. The remaining position lets the profit keep running.
Currently holding 100 CAP, floating profit +57.10% (earned 1.56U).
My stop loss is still set at 0.087. As long as it doesn't strongly break above the previous high of 0.08888, the short logic remains valid. I set my take profit at 0.06 for now; if it breaks below, then look at 0.05. The risk-reward ratio is very favorable.
This time I just want to trade with discipline: no heavy positions, no all-in, no blind trades, restarting with 30U.
Progress: 31.38U / 300U.
$BTC $ETH $CAP
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $PUMP
This new coin surged again today, hitting a recent high.
A huge whale is going long inside, with a position return of about 504%. Two whales earlier together scooped up 572 million tokens.
The contract positions rose 30% in a single day. With such aggressive big players, retail investors haven't caught up yet.
I'm bullish but didn't chase the high; I'll wait for a pullback to 0.0058 before watching again, and will exit if it rallies then falls.
$PUMP $XRP perpetual 100x long position, opened at 1.4821, now at 1.5012, floating profit +128.87%.
After stabilizing around 1.48, a big bullish candle directly pushed up breaking resistance, I followed the trend to go long, with stop loss set below 1.47. The 100x leverage position is very small, the movement is much stronger than expected, the percentage has directly increased by 1.2 times!
Moved the stop loss up to 1.49, the rest depends on whether 1.52 can be broken.
$ETH $SOL #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #NVIDIA stock hits a new all-time high, market value nears $6 trillion
NVIDIA's stock price has reached a new all-time high, with its market value once touching $5.7 trillion. This scale already surpasses the annual GDP of many countries.
Why is it so strong? Three factors stand out. First, solid performance. The latest quarter's revenue was 96.2 billion, a 106% year-over-year increase, with next quarter guidance between 105.8 and 110.1 billion. Second, aggressive shareholder returns. The board just approved a $150 billion buyback authorization, with $235 billion remaining to be executed, to be completed by fiscal year 2028. Third, continued institutional endorsement. After discussions with management, Morgan Stanley reclassified it as the semiconductor industry's top pick, citing expanding AI infrastructure demand and customer base.
What is the market pricing in? Not a single product, but the long-term dominance of the compute power economy. NVIDIA is both selling the shovels and building the stage, and it is currently using real cash to buy back shares, effectively telling everyone it has absolute confidence in the sustainability of future orders.
For BTC, this connection is indirect, but the underlying logic is linked. The more aggressive AI capital expenditure is, the more solid the compute power economy becomes, and the more fiat currency credit is burned globally. Each expansion of compute infrastructure adds bricks to the long-term narrative of non-sovereign assets. In the short term, don't expect NVIDIA's new highs to pull up BTC; the market is currently focused on interest rates and inflation, not chips.
Operationally, don't chase the highs. The compute power narrative is long-term; interest rates are short-term. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
I am Cige.$HYPE perpetual 50x long position, opened at 87.893, now at 90.575, floating profit +152.57%.
Honestly, this trade was opened quite comfortably. It clearly couldn't fall below 88, a double bottom rebound scenario. When the bullish candle pulled up, I went long immediately, setting stop loss at 86. With 50x leverage and a very small position, it never looked back and took off directly.
+152.57%, trailing stop at 89. In this market, bulls are the way to go.
$ETH $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $ETH ETH is much clearer compared to BTC. The chart shows a relatively standard triangular convergence and is at the end of the convergence.
Waiting for the convergence result to appear before entering is a safer approach.
I personally lean towards a higher probability of an upward breakout.
If it closes and holds above 2720, I will try to enter this trend on a smaller time frame.
The recent market has indeed been exhausting. Hopefully, after the consolidation ends, there will be a long trend segment that satisfies everyone 🥲A few green candles can change the mood
A few more can change a life.
This is especially fitting for the current $BTC chart. Bitcoin surged to 87,000 before pulling back to oscillate near the high of 85,000.
The continuous green Ks previously drove floating profits in accounts, boosting many people's confidence dramatically, breeding greed, leading them to add positions and increase leverage.
Subsequently, trading volume shrank, upward momentum weakened, and the chart oscillated back and forth to shake out positions, repeatedly eroding the previously high confidence.
ETF funds are still flowing in to support the bottom, but it is difficult to see a sustained large rally again.
Many mistakenly attribute the market gains to their own skill, hoping for a wave of profits to rewrite their returns. In a choppy market, the mindset shifts from excitement to anxiety.
Hope is ignited when the market is favorable, but when it turns, the emotions driven by the rise become a burden to trading.
Currently, Xiao Ma's position:
Long BTC, floating profit +300 USDT, return rate 152%.
But high leverage is extremely sensitive; even a slight large reverse pullback can cause drastic profit and loss changes, making it a high-risk position.
Note: The above is only market insight and does not constitute investment advice.🚩HELLO, buddies, I am Chao Ge
👉BTC surged to 87000 then faced resistance and pulled back, currently fluctuating between 84000-85000, now around 85000.
👉Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $82.9 million this week, with BlackRock's IBIT alone taking in $292 million, indicating continued capital support.
👉A large number of high-leverage longs have been cleared in the previous market phase, but spot holdings show no signs of panic selling, suggesting selling pressure mainly comes from the leverage side rather than real positions.
👉ETH is weak, hovering around 2692, with continuous capital outflow and heavy selling pressure above. The market is in a high-level oscillation and shakeout, with significant divergence between bulls and bears.
👉For BTC, 87000 is the key resistance, and 83900 is important support.
👆🏻On the macro level, the Federal Reserve and ECB are about to release the September meeting minutes, and policy expectations will bring liquidity disturbances. If the minutes signal a hawkish stance, risk assets will face further pressure. The current market seems to be supported by spot holdings but actually hides risks of deep pullbacks and spikes, with leveraged positions easily caught in a two-way squeeze.
【Key Point】This phase is a high-risk game; strictly control positions and respect market uncertainty.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
$BTC
$ETH The most dangerous position on the chessboard is never the moment of being checked, but the square where the opponent thinks they have the initiative, while you have already set a sacrificial trap. $STORJ is right on that square now.
A 24-hour amplitude of only 3.08% suggests a seemingly stagnant closed position, but this calm is precisely the silence before the midgame unfolds. The price has already touched the upper Bollinger Band: short-term at 105%, just -0.1% shy of the upper band; mid-term even at 108%, -0.3% from the upper band. What does this mean in chess terms? It means the pawn formation has reached its limit with no room to advance, leaving only exchange or retreat.
Looking further at the killing move — the short-term stochastic RSI is at 67.5, the long-term at 53.3. Strong short-term but weak long-term is a classic "false initiative": locally I am attacking fiercely, but globally my pieces are not keeping up. The red side’s three pawns press forward, while the black side’s rear wing is already fortified. When short-term momentum hits the threshold above 64, this is the system’s checkmate warning — not to add more troops, but to pull back.
My tactical choice is very clear: now is not the entry point, but a reverse ambush set at a high position. The current price is 0.07; the real entry point waits for a fake upward move to 0.08, which is a 3.3% rise from the current price. That is the baited square I have set, letting the chasing bulls carry me up.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.08 (current price +3.3%)
Take Profit 1: 0.07 (-6.2%)
Take Profit 2: 0.07 (-3.4%)
Stop Loss: 0.08 (+13.4%)
Note this stop loss structure: within an amplitude space of over 30%, I only leave 13.4% as a defense line, indicating this is a fast, close-quarters battle, not a long endgame. The target retraces 3.4% to 6.2% below the current price, profiting from elasticity and rhythm, not greed. In the endgame, the most expensive thing is not the pieces, but time.
As for the underlying fundamentals, once rumors about restructuring and debt pressure materialize, it’s like the opponent suddenly gains a promoted pawn, and the 0.07 price platform will be directly breached. My current strategy is not to rush to the first square that breaks out, but to hold the diagonal the opponent must pass through.
Chess players never predict the storm; they only stand on the high ground on the leeward side before the storm arrives. The next square for $STORJ belongs to the patient sacrificial pawn. #storjchapter11 $ENA
The project team's wallet has been moving coins out from exchanges these past few days.
They have withdrawn about 68.26 million USD in total, through two major exchanges, and no one on-chain is rushing to dump.
The project team posted a series of transaction hashes 8 hours ago without explanation; the market is treating it as positive news for now.
I'm bullish but not chasing the highs; I'll wait for a pullback near 0.22 with lower volume before entering again, and will give up if it falls below 0.21.
$ENA BTC, ETH, and SOL each have their own concerns—who's holding back a big move?
Summarizing the market from early morning until now in one sentence: BTC is sticky, ETH is steady, SOL is sluggish; the impatient get hit from both sides.
BTC surged to 85720 before quickly falling back to 83680, just showing signs of recovery before being pressed down by selling pressure. On the 15-minute chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are gradually flattening and turning up, MACD green bars are shortening, indicating a short-term need for repair. Key to watch is whether the 83750 support holds firmly; above, 83900 is the first hurdle. A volume-backed break above could target 84200 and 84450; if it falls below 83450, reduce long positions and watch if 83200 can hold.
ETH's movement is relatively stable. Price at 2703, firmly above all three moving averages, with MA20 at 2685. Just one step away from 2710; after breaking through, watch 2730 and 2750. As long as 2675 holds, the short-term structure remains bullish.
SOL remains sticky and indecisive, fluctuating around 118.8. MA20 is at 118.1, with 119.2 as the short-term dividing line. Only consider following if it breaks above 120; if it falls below 117.5, it may retest around 117.
Among the three, ETH shows the strongest short-term resilience, but whether BTC can reclaim 83900 remains the emotional barometer. The market tests patience; waiting for signals is more rewarding than rushing in.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Good evening, $GRASS This wave really wore down my short position, with unrealized losses directly hitting 11%, about to reach the stop-loss point.
Clearly, I thought it should have dropped from the high level, but the market is still stubbornly holding, even showing some momentum to push higher. This kind of high-level oscillation is the most frustrating, neither good to short nor to close the position.
But I still decided to hold on for another night, not rushing to cut losses. I won’t make a move tonight, will check again tomorrow morning. If luck is on my side, this pullback might really bring me a surprise.
Is anyone else watching $GRASS? Are you short, long, or have you already exited? Let’s chat in the comments. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 🔥 Sunday's rally, don't rush to see it as a trend reversal.
An interesting phenomenon appeared in the weekend market:
BTC, ETH, and XRP rebounded simultaneously, it looks like bullish sentiment is back.
But the problem is — weekend liquidity is low, the order book is thin, price movements are more like probing, which doesn't necessarily mean real capital is entering.
🟠 $BTC is currently around 84,700, the key is whether it can hold above 85,200. After breaking through, look at 87,000, then 90,000; if it falls below 82,800, the 80K defense line comes back into view.
🔵 $ETH is about 2,680, to open up space, it needs to get back above 2,760-2,770; only then is there a chance to challenge 3,000.
Capital flow also shows divergence:
BTC ETF is flowing back, but ETH funds are still under pressure.
So the sequence is simple:
BTC confirms first, ETH follows, altcoins spread last.
Don't chase the weekend's false breakout, wait for Monday's volume and close to give you the answer.
Look for support on pullbacks, and follow through on breakouts.
The above is just my personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice. DYOR!
$BTC $ETH $XRP Brothers, $ZEC has rebounded to 1332 again, but in my view, this rebound is just giving shorts an opportunity!
Look at the market: current price 1332.13, up 2.28% in 24 hours. On the surface, the long-short ratio is B 66% to S 34%, the buying seems strong. But think carefully, it fell from 1660 to 1270, a drop of nearly 400 points, so what's special about a 2% rebound now? The key is it hasn't even touched yesterday's high; the rebound strength is obviously weak.
Why do I say this is a shorting opportunity?
First, ETF funds are still running out. Grayscale ZCSH spot ETF had a net outflow of as much as 93.56 million USD this week, with no net inflow for several consecutive days. When it was rising, it was buying; now that it's falling, it is the biggest selling pressure.
Second, retail bulls are still rushing in. The buying looks dominant, but the price just can't be pushed up — this means someone is placing support orders to cover selling, and retail investors are taking the losses. Do the big players really want retail investors to profit?
Third, the technical structure hasn't changed. 1270-1300 is key support, 1350-1400 above is strong resistance. When the price rebounds to the resistance zone, that's a short point.
Trading advice: lightly short in the 1330-1360 pullback range, stop loss above 1400, target first at 1270, if broken then 1155. I'm still holding my short at 868.79, floating loss -159.98%, margin 48.84U, liquidation price 2653, can hold on.
Brothers, for a coin like ZEC, whether going long or short, you have to find the right position, enter and exit quickly, don't get attached to the fight.
$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Structural Exploration Report: The load-bearing walls of $SSV are being hollowed out.
Anyone who has worked on super high-rise buildings knows that before a building collapses, it’s never the curtain wall that cracks first, but the core tube’s reinforcement that fails to hold up first. Now, the blueprint of $SSV is exactly such a dangerous construction plan—rising 5.09% in 24 hours, it looks like a newly poured layer, but when placed within the Bollinger Bands structural grid, the price has already reached 95% of the short-term channel, with only 0.4% clearance left to the upper band. The mid-term channel is pushed up to 116%, and the upper band is directly breached by 1.1%. This is not load-bearing; it’s cantilevered, and without any diagonal bracing.
What makes me even more cautious is the RSI. The short-term reading is 68.1, the long-term 61.8, both clinging to the upper edge of the neutral zone, with the short-term signal already flashing red. In my industry, this is like a stress monitor’s continuously rising curve—not yet at the yield point, but everyone knows that further loading will cause brittle failure. A 95% Bollinger Band position combined with a 68 short-term strength indicator is like putting the entire live load of the floor on two columns without seismic joints.
Blueprints never tell stories, only nodes. The current price is 2.19, while the entry point is set at 2.26, 3.4% higher than the current price—this means I’m not chasing this cantilever that has already extended 3.4%, but waiting for a pullback confirmation to see if this position can form a new support. If it can’t hold, the first target is 1.98, down 9.5% from the current price, and the second target is 2.00, down 8.5%. This is the normal path of structural unloading, not collapse, but a return to load balance.
Stop loss is set at 2.51, 14.6% above the current price. Many think stop loss is admitting defeat; to me, it’s an expansion joint—a preset allowance for the structure to release displacement here, preventing the entire building from collapsing consecutively.
📉 Short:
Entry: 2.26 (current price +3.4%)
Take Profit 1: 1.98 (-9.5%)
Take Profit 2: 2.00 (-8.5%)
Stop Loss: 2.51 (+14.6%)
No matter how bright the curtain wall is, it can’t hide the truth of the reinforcement ratio.$CORE is hilarious. Some people flaunt $CORE burn data everywhere, claiming the supply is rapidly decreasing. It looks like they're trying to fool children; at least when you fool kids, you give them a candy, but here they only tell a one-sided story with selective data.
They show a cumulative burn of 72,700 tokens from Q1 to Q3 and mention tokens yet to be burned, explaining the mechanism of staking → activity → fees → burn very smoothly. But this presentation only picks favorable data and deliberately omits the token unlocks and releases during the same period.
The burn numbers are increasing, but the tokens unlocked and released each quarter far exceed the burn amount. On one hand, chips are continuously unlocked and released; on the other hand, only a small amount is burned. The overall circulating supply is still expanding, so there is no accelerated reduction in supply.
Using burn data alone to create an illusion of deflation ignores the real issues of node loss and ecosystem implementation. The localized positive packaging of data cannot hide the selling pressure caused by continuous unlocking. $BTC daily current price 85292, a standard sideways to downward trend.
Various negative news outside bombarding continuously, but BTC's volatility is tightly locked, with very limited fluctuation space, refusing a deep correction. The daily Bollinger upper band is 89141, lower band 76439, currently steadily running in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, short-term moving averages all pointing upward, the strong bull market upward structure intact.
After a surge, no sharp drop, choosing to consolidate profits sideways, exchanging time for space, this is a very strong signal of a bull market. It does not quickly crash to shake out traders but grinds down short-term floating positions through oscillation, wearing out impatient traders.
However, it should be viewed objectively: sideways does not equal a direct continuation of a sharp rise. Currently lacking volume for an attack, the previous high at 87374 remains the core resistance. Only a volume breakout above the previous high can open a new round of upward space; if sideways lasts too long without breaking upward, there is still the possibility of a pullback to the MA20 moving average for support.
Avoid frequent contract trades during the sideways phase, as it is easy to be stopped out repeatedly. Spot main positions can be held calmly, waiting for directional choice; altcoins will still have much greater volatility than BTC. #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BZ crude oil has been stuck at $102 for two days. This is not a market trend; it's a political game.
Trump holds 100 million barrels of G7 reserves and 40 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, tweeting daily "I have oil, don't let prices rise";
Iran holds the Strait of Hormuz and missiles from the Houthi forces, coldly watching and saying "If you dare touch me, I'll cut off your diesel."
$102 is Trump's "vote safety line" for the midterm elections Tesla delivered 486,500 vehicles in Q3, exceeding Wall Street expectations by about 25,000 — I choose to observe, not chase.
Here's what I see: Official figures show third-quarter deliveries at 486,532 vehicles, with the company's compiled consensus expectation around 461,974, about 25,000 more delivered.
Compared to last year's record of 497,099 for the same period, it's still about 2.1% lower, but up about 1.3% from Q2's 480,126.
Cumulative deliveries for the first three quarters reached 1.3247 million, an increase of about 8.8% year-over-year; demand in Europe is recovering, offsetting the decline in US subsidies and price competition in China.
Production was about 464,400 vehicles, still below deliveries, indicating inventory is being drawn down.
On Friday, the stock closed at 370.59, up about 4.65%, opening at 360.08, reaching a high of 374.60 and a low of about 359.41, with a trading volume of approximately 55.33 million.
Simply put: The delivery numbers beat the market, but Friday's big bullish candle had already priced in the surprise.
My view: The market is thin over the weekend, so don't chase Friday's high; energy storage installations at 13.7 GWh also fell short of the market's hoped-for 15.9 GWh, so don't just cheer the delivery numbers.
What I will do: Observe, not chase.
Wait to see if it holds above about 374.60; if it falls below about 359.41, consider this delivery rally invalid.
Do you believe that deliveries beating expectations can support the stock price, or do you think it will give back gains after subsidy reductions?
$TSLA $NVDA $AMD
#Fed and ECB to release September meeting minutes #BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH funds continue outflow