Orbit Post Sitemap
$BTC $ETH $SOL Monday
Employment is weak. The rebound has returned. This is not a breakout.
$BTC around $85.4K–$86.4K
Surpassed $87K after the employment report but disappeared by the weekend.
$85.2K is back in view. Weekly high is still $87.4K. Failure points are $82.8K, next is $80K.
$ETH around $2,705–$2,728
Following along. The floor is $2.60K. The door is still $2.77K.
$SOL around $121
Maintained $117 throughout the week. Local high is $125. $123 comes first.
September employment: +29,000. Rate hike expectations have retreated. The dollar has softened.
Crude oil is still above $100. Interest rates remain heavy. That is the ceiling.
If Monday’s closing price exceeds $87.4K / $2.77K / $125, it will be confirmed.
The wick to $87K has already appeared. It did not remain.凌晨盯盘的时候，SOL那根线突然拉到121，我手里的杯子差点没拿稳。 这波拉升你追了吗，还是跟我一样在等回踩确认？ 先说感受。前几天115到117那个区间一直没被砸穿，我当时就觉得反弹结构在慢慢成形，今天算是给了个交代。但真正让我在意的不是价格本身，而是衍生品那边的动静。这轮从下跌里爬出来的修复行情，现在明显进入了大区间震荡的节奏，问题是，合约市场的持仓和资金费率有没有跟上这波情绪。 我自己的观察是，这种反弹初期，永续合约的未平仓量往往不会立刻暴增，因为大部分人还在怀疑。如果SOL在121附近开始出现量价背离，同时资金费率还是偏中性甚至微负，那反而说明空头没有大规模撤退，后面一旦突破，挤压行情的燃料是存在的。这是偏多的那条路径。 但脆弱点也很清楚。BTC同步修复到85300附近，刚好卡在这轮下跌的中间位置，也是前期的震荡顶。这个位置很微妙，因为它是空头愿意重新进场的地方。如果这里出现明显的卖压，合约市场可能会先走一波多杀多，把追高的人洗出去，再决定方向。换句话说，85300附近如果开空，逻辑上是在博弈震荡延续，往下看83000一带的调整空间。 山寨这边会更敏感。SOL如果只是独立拉，而BTC surged to $86K, but leverage faded faster than expected
Bitcoin has recently surged from over $83,000 to over $86,000. On the surface, the script looks standard: September's nonfarm payroll data was significantly worse than expected, market expectations for an October rate hike dropped sharply from 64% to 22%, capital flowed back into risk assets, and BTC followed the rise. But what’s truly noteworthy isn’t the price, but the speed at which leverage accumulated behind this rally.$SAND I don't understand, why is there no pullback at all, I'm going crazy $PONS, 20x short, entered at 0.4193, now at 0.3806, floating profit 184%.
The logic behind this trade isn't complicated. At 0.4193, there was clearly a resistance wall above; several attempts failed to break through, and volume was shrinking, so I shorted. Now it has dropped to 0.3806, the profit is decent, but with 20x leverage, you know, good numbers don't mean safety.
Currently, just watching the 0.3806 level; if it holds, keep holding, if not, exit. Don't be greedy, only realized profits count. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 🔥 $ETH Smart Money is heavily long, but something just changed
Longs hold $1.42B vs only $428M in shorts, sitting on more than +$60M profit. Shorts are down almost -$11M.
But fresh 30m flow tells a different story: $19.47M selling vs $14.15M buying.
👀 Longs are winning big, but sellers are suddenly stepping in. Profit-taking may be starting.Brothers, right at the market open on Monday, hit me with intensity!
$BTC is back near 86500, $ETH is now at 2630, and $ZEC has also pulled up to 1339. On the first day of the new week, all three coins are rising together—is this a bullish start?
That’s not so friendly for us bears, haha.
But don’t get too excited yet. Although prices are rising, the market is still the same—it hasn’t really broken out of the consolidation zone.
BTC continues to focus on the big range between 84000 and 87000. Below, watch 83800 first; if it really breaks 83500, I’ll cut losses and admit I was wrong.
ETH is also quite tricky, testing 2700 repeatedly. The resistance between 2775 and 2800 is still strong, with sell orders piled up; on the downside, 2650 has held several times in a row.
Yesterday, ZEC really made things clear for me—the more I tried to recover losses with short-term trades, the more I ended up hitting stop losses crazily.
Now I’m less inclined to trade frequently. ZEC’s low is around 1280, and often holding a bit might be much more comfortable than chasing every rise and fall.
The new week has just started, and neither bulls nor bears have gained an advantage yet.
Is this a bullish start, or a bull trap with a rise followed by a fall?
Monday’s a turning point, keep watching!
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 $DOGE is near $0.09536, down 0.58%, with $38.98M displayed volume. I’m watching $0.0945–0.095 as the nearby liquidity zone. If price sweeps below it, reclaims $0.096 and volume expands, I’d consider a long. Entry: $0.095–0.096. SL: $0.0928. TP1: $0.098, TP2: $0.100, TP3: $0.103, TP4: $0.107. R:R can reach roughly 1:5+. If $0.0928 breaks, the setup is invalid. I’m not trying to predict the bottom here. I want the sweep and reclaim to confirm buyers are absorbing the selling before entering.Coin Metrics is a data provider that recalculated Ethereum's historical ledger.
Why did they do this?
Because they later identified more wallets belonging to exchanges and had to add these wallets back from the very first block to reconcile the old accounts.
Whenever a new batch of wallets is identified, they have to go back and complete the history; otherwise, the previous records are incorrect.
This announcement was released on October 1st, with the event report dated September 28th.
Based on my understanding, I turned it into a story.
Let me tell you about a company that loves to tinker with backtesting.
They dug through on-chain data and discovered a pattern:
When the coins in exchanges decrease because people withdraw them, the price often rises after a while.
Doesn't this overturn your previous understanding?
They coded this pattern into a program,
ran data going back several years, and the curve looked unbelievably good.
It kept going up with very small drawdowns.
They were ecstatic.
Then they discovered something that made them unable to laugh.
The historical data they used was provided by the data vendor "today."
And within that data, some wallets were only identified in recent years as belonging to exchanges.
In other words, at the moment of the actual transactions back then,
no one knew those wallets belonged to exchanges.
Their program was like having a divine eye.
It "knew in advance" which wallets were exchanges,
and then used this knowledge, which didn’t exist at the time,
to "predict" the past.
Of course, it won. # Latest Updates
- September nonfarm payrolls increased by 29,000, far below the expected 90,000; July was revised down to -10,000, August revised down to 133,000, with a combined two-month revision down of 60,000; the private sector still added 46,000 jobs, while the government sector dragged down by 17,000.
- September ISM Manufacturing PMI was 54.5, below the expected 55; Markit's final value was sharply revised down from 57.0 to 55.9; Q2 GDP final value was revised up to 2.2%, with consumer spending at 3.8%.
- August PCE year-on-year was 3.4%, below the expected 3.7%; core PCE was 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%, mainly due to BEA's change in statistical methodology: the portfolio management subcategory (weight 1.9%) now uses employment data extrapolation, not a true signal of inflation easing.
- Federal Reserve's Jefferson and Williams signaled no rush to raise rates; October rate hike expectations dropped to 20%; Dallas Fed's Logan still advocates at least a 50bp hike. The CPI on October 14 and PPI on October 15 are the most important data windows before the policy meeting.
- The Yemeni government, supported by Saudi Arabia, has restarted a large-scale offensive against the Houthi forces; the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drones at Saudi Aramco facilities, raising Red Sea shipping risks; Brent crude remains at $102.61; G7 released 100 million barrels of emergency oil reserves to address Middle East supply disruptions.
- After rate hike expectations declined, crypto rebounded: BTC at 86,400, ETH at 2,726; on October 1, BTC ETF net inflow was $103 million; Anthropic plans to start IPO marketing in mid-November, with a potential valuation of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion; Broadcom leads $60 billion debt financing to support AI chips and data centers.
# Trading Analysis
- Conclusion remains unchanged: this round of rally is a marginal adjustment of rate hike expectations, not a fundamental turning point.
- Weakness in ISM and nonfarm payrolls reduced October rate hike probability to 20%, 2-year US Treasury yields declined, and US stocks broadly rose. However, nonfarm payrolls were mainly dragged down by the government sector; the private sector still added 46,000 jobs; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% due to increased participation; PCE below expectations was caused by the change in statistical methodology. GDP was revised up to 2.2%, consumer spending at 3.8%, fundamentals remain strong; October 14 CPI is a key verification window.
- Anthropic plans to start IPO marketing in November, with a potential valuation of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion; Broadcom leads $60 billion financing, confidence has somewhat recovered; but the core contradiction has shifted to ROI validation, and a period of divergence and expected volatility is anticipated.ETH liquidation pressure: Watch $2,559.16 below and $2,798.02 above
Data: ETH current price is about $2,729.78. If the price drops about 6.25% to around $2,559.16,
some high-leverage long positions may face concentrated liquidation; if the price rises about 2.5% to around $2,798.02,
some high-leverage short positions may face concentrated liquidatioStill couldn't hold on, last night the $ETH short position was liquidated!
Watching the position instantly go to zero, I actually felt a bit of calm like a boot dropping. Reviewing the situation, the overall trend is indeed bearish: lack of new narratives, continuous capital outflow, plus the security risks caused by the attack on Aave's third-party tool yesterday, resulting in heavy selling pressure.
Watching the direction is useless; survival is the key. Having paid such an expensive tuition, quitting the game now is impossible. Adjusting my mindset, continuing to work hard today! Strictly managing stop losses and position sizes to recover the lost profits.
See you all at the peak! Wishing everyone steady profits! #ETH强势拉升，空头清算超11亿美元 JUST IN: OKX and NYSE parent ICE file to launch a tokenized US stock platform, offering shares in more than 60 US-listed companies under the SEC's new innovation exemption.The order book funds leave no room for noise, $MUBARAK continuously shows active buy orders lifting the price around 0.0775, with EMA moving averages holding above on pullbacks, and MACD golden cross followed by expanding bars, pushing the long positions' cost higher.
Just took a quick glance at the liquidation hot zone while wiping sweat at the roadside; above 0.078 to 0.082 lies a dense cluster of short stop-losses and liquidation orders. This area is only 2.44% away from the current price, requiring only a small increase in buy volume to push the price in and trigger a chain of short liquidations.
Trading strategy is to only play the strong side. Entry range is set between 0.0772 and 0.0778, with pullbacks holding above 0.0768 considered structurally valid. First take profit target is 0.0810, second take profit at the liquidity-dense zone above 0.0820. Defensive stop loss is placed at 0.0748; breaking below indicates a failed short squeeze, exit immediately without waiting for a rebound.
This bet is on short squeeze and breakout momentum, not on noise.
$MUBARAK
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
@OKX星球 [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
Tokenized stocks on Solana hit $4.4 billion in trading volume in September. Is this going to disrupt Wall Street?
Pharaoh says, don’t rush to call it a revolution—first, see who’s actually playing. $4.4 billion sounds huge, but breaking it down makes it clear—most of it is Meme play pairing crypto with stocks, using tokenized stocks as the pool on the other side, with retail investors betting on volatility on-chain. Real institutional allocation is still a small portion. In short, this isn’t Wall Street relocating; it’s Degens switching to a different casino.
But Pharaoh has to say another side: this sector is indeed accelerating. Solana is fast and low-cost; combining tokenized stocks with Meme instantly boosts liquidity. While the total crypto market cap fell from 4 trillion to 3.87 trillion in September, RWA on Solana rose against the trend, showing funds are moving toward on-chain assets that "generate yield and offer play."
What does this mean for Bitcoin? Short term, it’s a diversion—hot money goes to play on-chain stocks on Solana, draining liquidity from Bitcoin. But long term, it’s positive: the richer the on-chain asset ecosystem, the stronger the foundation of crypto overall, and Bitcoin’s role as a "non-sovereign store of value" becomes even clearer.
Remember, Solana is competing for transactions, Bitcoin is defending value. Good trades come from waiting, not chasing. Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won’t lose its way!
So looking ahead, Solana hitting the 200-250 range is just a matter of time $BTC $ETH $ZEC #Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 US current price 0.0133320, the market is already completely rotten. Multiple moving averages have formed a death cross, pressing down hard, MACD is continuously declining, active sell volume far exceeds buy volume, a typical bearish continuation pattern with no reversal structure. The liquidation map is even clearer, with long positions piled up like a mountain around 0.013 below, will the main force let this fat meat go? Most likely it will stab down again to harvest the long liquidity clean before considering anything else. The news is all noise, no need to look, just watch the market.
Just finished shift, thermos cup on the table, water still hot, first focus on the market.
In terms of operation, strictly forbid bottom fishing, don’t think it’s cheap just because it’s dropped a lot. Short directly in the rebound range of 0.01350 to 0.01370, stop loss set above 0.01400, don’t hold the position stubbornly. First take profit target at 0.01300, if broken continue holding, second target around 0.01260. Defense point strictly set at 0.01420, if broken admit mistake and exit without hesitation. Weak consolidation does not mean it will hold sideways, once the support below breaks it accelerates. This position now is not the bottom, it’s mid-mountain, the high short logic remains unchanged, wait for it to play out on its own.
$USELESS
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
@OKX星球 I just casually clicked refresh, and it dropped on its own, making me feel very passive. $GRASS This trend doesn't even require me to think; the account is just dancing on its own.
During the intraday plunge, around 0.7352, I kept watching the market repeatedly to confirm; the rebound was weak, heavy with a bull trap vibe, and volume didn't keep up—no one was there to catch it going up. With this kind of structure, not shorting would be a disservice to this plunge.
Now at 0.6948, +110.17% is already in the bag. Those on board should be waking up laughing; the rhythm is just right, feeling good, brothers.
In terms of operation, first close 70%, securing the main profit. Move the stop loss of the remaining 30% closer to the cost price, letting the profit fly on its own. Take profits when you should, don't be greedy for the last bit, brothers, watch your profits.
Panic comes from no plan, losses come from overthinking. Being out of position isn't a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake. Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next move, see the new structure before acting.
$ZEC $LAB 🚨 OKX JUST MADE ANOTHER BIG MOVE
OKX and ICE have filed with the SEC for a platform targeting 24/7 trading of tokenized U.S. stocks.
Stocks + blockchain + 24/7 markets. 👀
Is this where traditional finance meets crypto?
#OKX #Crypto #Tokenization #Web3 #BTC #RWA$SUI This ID's view:
Mainly oscillating, daily-level positions need to endure consolidation; time will test patience, those lacking patience can continue to observe.
Chan theory structure: Currently building the second 30-minute upward trend center; combined with BTC's trend, SUI's movement is highly consistent with BTC.
Wyckoff perspective: No signs of distribution, end of accumulation, no volume surge rally, nor volume surge distribution.🚨 BTC MARKET WATCH
Bitcoin open interest has jumped by around $2.3B as traders increase bullish exposure. 📈₿
More leverage means more opportunity — but also more liquidation risk.
Bullish setup or danger zone? 👀
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoTrading #Futures #OKX #Trading$ETH at its current position has three mid-to-long-term scenario analyses:
First, a pullback that holds above 2660. This is a reference point for mid-to-long-term long positions. As long as it holds, it indicates solid buying pressure below, with a chance to retake above 2820 later, which is a bullish scenario.
Second, a rebound that fails to break through 2765. This level is a reference for mid-to-long-term short positions. Multiple failed attempts to break above will continue to release selling pressure, making rebounds a window for selling, and the price will test lower levels again.
Third, oscillating back and forth between 2660 and 2765. With Bitcoin consolidating at high levels and ETH lacking incremental funds, it will keep grinding within this range, making it difficult for either bulls or bears to make significant profits.
Considering the current market, funds continue to favor BTC, and ETH is passively following the rally. A major move will likely wait for the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes to choose a direction. Personally, I lean towards the third oscillation scenario, but preparations for the first two scenarios should also be made in advance.
#ETHMidLongTermScenario #CryptoMarketWaitingForMacroCatalyst
$ETH $BTCAncient whales collectively take action, signaling large-scale sell pressure for ETH!
Recently, old whales on the chain have started mass selling, and this time it's $ETH's turn.
Two whale transfer messages have consecutively emerged, both from OG big holders with early low-position stakes.
The first is an ancient whale who participated in the Ethereum ICO in 2015.
They transferred 13,330 ETH to Coinbase, and this batch of coins is very likely prepared for sale.
Originally, they received a total of 170,000 ETH and have now basically cleared out, leaving only a small amount of chips.
The ICO cost was only $0.311, with cumulative profits of $193 million, yielding a return of up to 3,655 times.
There is also another whale who entered in 2016, who after being silent for half a year, transferred chips again.
Similarly, they deposited 13,330 ETH to Coinbase, worth about $36.37 million.
The holding cost was as low as $11.61, and if sold all, the profit would be $36.21 million.
The return rate directly reaches 23,402%, belonging to early players holding nearly zero-cost chips.
Transferring coins to exchanges is the most typical pre-liquidation move.
These ancient whales have extremely low holding costs, so no matter the current price, selling will yield big profits.
A large release of low-position chips will bring considerable sell pressure to the ETH market.
However, it should be distinguished that transferring to exchanges does not mean immediate dumping.
Some big holders also store first and cash out in batches at the right time The Drift hack incident has entered the claims phase, but the real issue is not "whether claims can be made," but how much can ultimately be recovered.
Victims have already initiated the claims process, but initiating a claim ≠ funds being received, nor does it mean the loss has been resolved.
Next, focus on three variables:
First, where the compensation funds will come from and what the final compensation ratio will be;
Second, whether the claims review and distribution timeline is clear;
Third, how much of the hacker's funds can be recovered and whether the project team can continue to disclose progress.
If a clear compensation mechanism can be established later, even if it cannot cover 100% of the losses, it will help restore user confidence.
But if the claims process has no progress for a long time, or the final compensation ratio is significantly lower than expected, market concerns about the security of Drift and the Solana DeFi ecosystem may further increase.
This incident also raises a very practical question for DeFi:
After a protocol is attacked, users truly care not only about yield and TVL, but about who will bear the losses and whether the money can be recovered.
My judgment is that initiating claims is only the first step; what truly determines market sentiment is the subsequent fund recovery, compensation plan, and actual disbursement.
The higher the compensation ratio and the more transparent the progress, the faster confidence will be restored; conversely, if there is no result for a long time, the trust cost may far exceed the hacker loss itself.This BTC surge is not just a "price increase"; it feels more like a "major chip reshuffle."
ETF funds are "squeezing out" spot selling pressure, and 86,000 has become a solid floor.
Don't just focus on the price 86,681; look at two key data points:
1. Volume anomaly: The 24-hour trading volume soared to 3.472 billion USDT, but price volatility is narrowing (amplitude only 2.6%). One Ethereum Layer-2 is shutting down.
Blast announced that its network will be sunset, with standard-interface withdrawals ending October 26.
This is bigger than one project disappearing.
L2 competition is getting real: networks need users, liquidity and sustainable activity — not just TVL and incentives.
The next phase may be about survival, not launches.#HormuzStillClosed Hormuz is still shut, but the market now has a temporary shock absorber 👀
The G7 plans to release up to 100M barrels while OPEC+ holds November output steady. That may ease near-term pressure, but reserve releases replace disrupted barrels, not the shipping route itself.
What caught my attention is the clock. If US-Iran talks drag on, emergency supply gets used while the core problem remains. The real test isn't whether oil falls now. It's whether Hormuz reopens.$FIL is 10 days away from the official FIL halving, which will take place on October 15th. It's uncertain whether this halving will boost FIL's price and trigger a rally similar to the one on November 7th last year. As of now, it seems very difficult to see a rally before October 15th unless after the holiday, Ethereum and Bitcoin continue to surge upward, driving FIL to leverage the halving benefits for a strong upward push. Otherwise, this month likely won't see much action, and we'll have to wait until after the halving to see how the market reacts. At present, it looks like we'll have to wait until November; this month probably holds no hope. What do you think the price of FIL might reach after the halving?$SOL is around $120.44, down 0.95%, with $52.83M displayed volume. I’m watching $119–120 as the decision zone. If price sweeps below $119, reclaims $121 and volume returns, I’d consider a reversal long. Entry: $119.50–121. SL: $117.20. TP1: $123, TP2: $126, TP3: $130, TP4: $135. R:R can reach roughly 1:5+. If $117.20 breaks, I’m out. I’m not assuming $120 will hold just because it’s a round number. The liquidity sweep, reclaim and volume response need to show sellers are losing control first.The Battle Between Bulls and Bears: Feasibility Analysis of a SOL Short Position Targeting $60
In the volatile cryptocurrency market, holding a contrary position often tests a trader's psychological resilience to the limit. Currently, SOL is trading around $121, with a take-profit target set at $60, implying the market expects the price to be halved again. Facing this huge price gap, we need to strip away emotions and objectively assess the probability of this bearish thesis from both technical and fundamental perspectives.
From a technical standpoint, the current market structure is clearly unfavorable to bears. The moving average system is the most intuitive tool for judging trends. Currently, SOL's 7-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all below the price and show a bullish alignment with upward divergence. This indicates that whether short-term or medium-to-long-term, the average market holding cost is rising, the bullish structure is solid, and there is no signal of a trend reversal.
For the price to reach $60, it must go through a "clearance game." First, SOL needs to effectively break below the key support zone of $116-$117; then it must break through the strong support line at $113. Continuously breaking through four technical support levels and triggering an avalanche-like decline usually requires extreme macro negative factors or a major "black swan" event related to the project itself. Additionally, although the MACD indicator shows that upward momentum has somewhat exhausted, it has not formed a death cross or bearish signal. The current pattern looks more like high-level consolidation brewing rather than a pre-crash warning.$SOON This one also couldn't hold, missed out on a lot, and later didn't give me a chance to catch up, no rebound either
The overall trend is bearish
Key resistance level: $0.3700 Key support level: $0.3450
Long-short ratio: Big players secretly shorting
Binance retail long-short ratio 1.0991, OKX retail long-short ratio 0.99. Retail investors are overall bullish, still bottom-fishing.
Big players: Number of big players long-short ratio 1.165 (bullish), but big players' position long-short ratio fell below 1, only 0.9229.
Large funds are operating bearish or hedging, no longer holding long positions with retail investors.
$BTC $ETH #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $MUBARAK A spot trading volume of 210,000 dollars can boost the price by 18 points, keep the show going Altcoin season erupts! $ADA long positions have more than quadrupled in unrealized gains, capturing the main upward wave.
Opened position at 0.245, current price 0.2688. Recently, the hourly chart shows a nearly 5% surge in a single day, accompanied by heavy short covering, with bulls fully in control.
From a fundamental perspective, the RealFi mainnet has launched, and Cardano has partnered with Brazilian oil company Petrobras to explore fuel data.
Combined with expectations for network upgrades, I decisively went long at the 0.245 support level. Currently approaching the 0.27 resistance zone, there is a short-term risk of overbought pullback; it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies. $BTC $ETH
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Brothers, there's an interesting divergence on-chain: $BTC old players are starting to move, while $ETH whales are actually increasing their positions.
Let's look at $BTC first.
In the past week, $BTC whales reduced their holdings by about 30,000 BTC, worth approximately $2.5 billion. During the market consolidation, large funds did not continue to aggressively add positions but some chose to reduce risk.
What's more exciting is that an ancient address from 13 years ago suddenly woke up.
One address holds 1,346 $BTC, now worth about $115 million. These coins were bought around 2013, at a cost of about $178 each, now yielding nearly 478 times the return.
After sleeping for 13 years, it only made a test transfer of 0.001 BTC.
Note:
Woke up ≠ dumping.
But ancient chips starting to move will definitely catch the market's attention.
Now let's look at $ETH.
The story is completely reversed.
In the past week, $ETH whales have cumulatively increased their holdings by about 60,000 ETH, worth approximately $162 million.
This indicates a divergence in large funds' attitudes toward the two assets:
$BTC: old chips start to realize profits.
$ETH: some funds continue to accumulate. In the morning, I reminded not to chase the rise. BTC's recent strong resistance at the previous high of 87000 has not been broken, so first look for a short at the top and expect a pullback. The market also provided an opportunity to get in. Unfortunately, ETH's rebound peaked at 2738, so our short entry point was a bit off. The pullback bottomed just now near 85448, and those who followed the short position made profits. Congratulations, remember to reduce your position and switch to protection! #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC $ETH $BTC has a level worth watching closely.
On-chain data shows heavy accumulation around $83K–$84K.
Recent order flow also showed aggressive buying appearing whenever BTC entered this zone.
That’s interesting because the support isn’t coming from one indicator.
On-chain positioning + real spot demand are pointing to the same area.
If $83K–$84K breaks, the reaction could be very different.The Strait of Hormuz hasn't even seen any positive news yet, and OPEC+ has already held oil production steady.
First, a quick primer.
What is OPEC+? It's not a company but a cooperative mechanism formed by major oil-producing countries, with the core purpose of coordinating oil production. (Most people won't tell you this)
So this statement "no production increase in November" directly impacts the CL, BZ, and USO lines. (This could significantly push oil prices higher)
1 Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz hasn't recovered yet.
Logically, supply concerns remain, but with G7 releasing reserves and increased Middle East exports, the upward momentum for CL, BZ, and USO has been somewhat capped. (Oil isn't so easy to push higher)
2 Now look at BTC and ETH over the past 10 hours.
BTC was around 87,000 at about 1 PM yesterday, then pulled back and has now bounced back above 86,000, but not by much; ETH also first fell and then slowly climbed back. (There is still some correlation between BTC and BZ, CL)
This shows the market hasn't yet treated the Strait of Hormuz situation as a direct risk asset downturn.
3 So the main focus remains on CL, BZ, and USO.
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, OPEC+ hasn't increased production, and the G7 is releasing reserves. These three forces are still counterbalancing each other. BTC and ETH are currently just swaying with sentiment and haven't found their own direction yet.
#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 $CL $BZ $BTC Friends of OKX Planet, today let's talk about something painful. ETH's current price hovers between $2700 and $2800, and bulls in the community are still shouting "$8000 is just the starting point" and "The ETF bullish news hasn't been fully priced in yet." But when I look at the on-chain data, I smell a familiar scent — the eve of the 2021 bull market peak, the same scene. 1. ETF? That's just Wall Street's "exit channel" The bulls' favorite narrative is "spot ETFs bring incremental funds." But the truth is: the selling pressure from Grayscale ETHE hasn't been fully absorbed, and BlackRock's clients are quietly reducing their positions. Look at the ETF fund flows in the past two weeks; net inflows are almost zero, even showing net outflows on some days. Wall Street isn't here to carry retail investors; their cost basis is below $2000. If they don't sell now, are they waiting for you to crash the market? "You don't understand? ETFs are a long-term positive!" — Yeah, in the long run, we're all dead, but can your position hold until that day? 2. On-chain data doesn't lie: whales are "openly" selling Glassnode data shows that the number of addresses holding 100,000+ ETH has decreased by 7 in the past 30 days. Meanwhile, ETH balances on exchanges have risen for three consecutive weeks — a typical signal of "chips moving from cold wallets to hot wallets" distribution. Even more ironically, TVL on L2 is rising, but ETH mainnet gas fees have dropped to single digits. After the Cancun upgrade, ETH burn volume plummeted, and the deflation narrative has already collapsed. Now ETH is in a net inflation state, with several hundred new coins issued daily. Bulls still Two Bitcoin OG wallets just woke up after 13 years.
They originally bought 1,346 $BTC for just ~$240K.
Today those coins are worth roughly $115M.
Only ~$43 of BTC was moved so far — apparently as a test transaction.
No sell yet.
But 479x returns + 13 years of dormancy makes this wallet activity impossible to ignore.Global Borrowing Cost Resonance: When "Nowhere to Escape" Becomes the New Normal
Sente's assertion that "the rise in US Treasury yields aligns with a global trend" attempts to shift focus away from the US as a single economy, implying a global asset repricing. This explanation holds true on a macro level—recently, long-term government bond yields in the UK, Japan, and even core European countries have hit multi-year or even multi-decade highs, clearly indicating that global capital pricing is undergoing a synchronized and intense revaluation.
However, this "race to the bottom" logic does not bring substantive relief to the market. For companies and investors urgently needing long-term financing, the synchronized surge in global interest rates means a comprehensive tightening of the financing environment. In the past, when US rates were high, capital could still flow to Europe or Asia in search of cheaper funds; now, with long-term rates rising collectively across major economies, affordable alternative funding is nearly extinct. This "everyone is expensive" situation effectively closes off arbitrage opportunities, pushing borrowing costs to an inescapably high level.
For fiscal officials, a deeper anxiety may be: although prices are rising globally, is the market secretly punishing the US alone? As global capital faces structural shifts, moving from sovereign debt to corporate bonds in search of returns, is US Treasury demand facing a permanent structural deterioration? This is no longer just a cyclical fluctuation but a stress test of the global debt system under the highest interest rate environment in decades.#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC is currently priced at 86009 USD, up 1.66% in 24 hours, with over 1 billion USD worth of shorts liquidated during the breakout process.
The market is not pricing in a “Monday massacre” at all; it’s just digesting a normal wave of short covering.
The so-called “feedback loop” logic chain is long and flawed, and every link has been hyped up by you all.
The chart clearly shows: every small rally in BTC is a fake pump, it falls back under pressure, repeatedly testing resistance levels and failing every time.
No breakout volume, no upward structure, purely weak sideways movement to trick retail investors into buying the dip.
A bunch of bulls are wildly fantasizing about reversals and new highs just from a slight rebound.
Honestly, it’s not that the market isn’t giving opportunities, it’s your obsession painting illusions for yourselves.
The bearish weak pattern hasn’t changed at all, and macro data can slam the market down at any time.
No verbal debates accepted, the market always punishes all kinds of disbelief. #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $MUBARAK perpetual, 20x long, entry at 0.066247, mark price 0.076809, floating profit +318.86%, position open.
Previously, when the price reached the 0.066 area, an hourly-level stop-fall signal appeared, MACD momentum gradually recovered, the Bollinger Bands middle band support was effective, and after the rebound momentum was released, bulls entered accordingly. The entry point is close to the support resonance zone, and the current profit margin is significant.
The holding phase tests the mindset more; 0.0768 as the current mark price area will see a tug of war between bulls and bears. If the price later retests but does not break the key moving averages, the position can be held; otherwise, if it quickly falls back to the entry range, caution is needed.
This is only a trading record; 20x leverage carries extremely high risk, avoid blindly following trends. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $PONS Let's pull it up a bit, rebound a little so I can catch it. It's been falling continuously, give it a chance. The overall trend is still bearish, looking for opportunities.
Currently, this long-short ratio is very likely to trigger a "dead cat bounce" or a short squeeze rebound. Let's wait and see first.
Key resistance level: $0.4200 Key support level: $0.3700
Long-short ratio: Retail and big holders are all holding on desperately.
OKX retail long-short ratio is as high as 2.73, Binance retail is 1.68. Retail investors are frantically bottom-fishing.
Big holders' position long-short ratio is as high as 2.1399. Big holders' funds are also heavily holding long positions.
$BTC $ETH #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC completed a low-key breakout over the past week.
As of October 5th, BTC was priced at $85,751, with a 24-hour fluctuation of only two thousand dollars. On the daily chart, it has risen above MA5, MA10, and MA20, showing an initial short-term bullish alignment. The most critical signal is that the $85,000 selling pressure wall has been completely absorbed, triggering $122 million in short liquidations. On the institutional side, Citi raised its 12-month target price to $113,000, and BlackRock's ETF continues to see net inflows. On-chain data shows that whales have increased their holdings by over 40,000 BTC in the past 10 days, but retail investors have not followed suit.
There are two hidden concerns behind the breakout that need to be addressed. First is insufficient volume; the daily average trading volume of spot and ETFs is only $6.4 billion, which is low and lacks broad capital participation, so beware of a false breakout. Second is the pressure from trapped positions above; there are many holders who bought 1 to 2 years ago waiting to break even in the $87,000 to $90,000 range, and $90,000 to $100,000 is a structural resistance zone. On the macro front, weak non-farm payrolls have cooled rate hike expectations, which is a short-term positive for risk assets, but the long-term direction of monetary policy remains uncertain.
From a spot perspective, the current stage is "broken out but not yet stable." Support levels at $83,000 and $77,200 need to hold below, and a volume breakout above the dense supply zone at $90,000 is required to open up more space. I insist on 100% spot holdings and do not open contracts. Before volume confirmation, patience is more important than directional judgment.
The above is only personal market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Can be revised to better match the style of “Market Flash + Logical Analysis,” avoiding simple repetition of the original text:
Writing
🐶 If the whales continue their strong push, the price could potentially challenge around 0.0065 again.
But what really needs caution is the upcoming chip release. According to the current unlocking schedule, a batch of newly circulating chips will be released in 7 days. If the market fails to absorb them, selling pressure could significantly increase.
Therefore, I focus more on the timing window rather than blindly chasing the rally:
📌 6 days later: Monitor capital flows in advance to find low-risk entry opportunities
📌 7 days later: Pay close attention to whether the unlocked chips are being sold off in concentration
📌 Around 0.0065: Watch the strength of the breakout; if volume expands and holds, the trend may continue; if it spikes on low volume, beware of a pullback
What’s truly worth doing in the market is not chasing every rise, but anticipating capital, chips, and timing in advance.
Of course, unlocking doesn’t necessarily mean a drop; it ultimately depends on actual circulating volume, market sentiment, and absorbing capital. Position management and stop-loss are always more important than guessing tops or bottoms.
If you want, I can also rewrite it to sound more like a crypto influencer, with a more provocative and eye-catching tone.Looking at the daily chart, $PONS hasn't bottomed out yet. BTC has been rising for four months straight; it can't keep avoiding a correction forever, right? Once it corrects, PONS might get halved again down to 2, with a market cap of just over 100 million, which could be somewhat cost-effective. When BTC rises again, it could multiply a few times to an 800 million FDV. What do you all think of this scenario?
Yesterday's income hit a new low, and the token issuance was also at a new low. There's really no sign of a bottom. How are the diamond hands holding up? Once again, altcoins turn out to be scams; after a couple of years, new scams will lure people back. Two years ago it was $TRUMP, this year it's PONS—just storytelling. Crypto is extremely risky, with frequent drops of 80% or even 99%.OKXICE — the joint venture between OKX and ICE (NYSE's parent company) —
just filed for 24/7 tokenized U.S. stock trading.
Under the SEC's new innovation exemption.
This isn't a rumor or a roadmap slide.
It's a formal filing to let US stocks trade around the clock,
built jointly with the company that owns the New York Stock Exchange. 🇨🇳 China bans Bitcoin not because it fears citizens "will speculate."
The main issue is capital control. And this is a much broader story.
First — preventing capital outflow.
Theoretically, a person can convert yuan into USDT, transfer stablecoins to an overseas platform, and then exchange them for dollars.
Such a mechanism creates an alternative channel for moving funds out of the country, which is harder to control with traditional banking tools.
This is critically important for China, as the state maintains strict control over capital movement.
Second — monetary sovereignty.
Stablecoins attract special attention. If a digital asset tied to a certain currency begins to be widely used as a means of payment and store of value, it partially performs the functions of money.
For the state, this is no longer just a cryptocurrency market. It is a question of who controls the money circulation.
Third — the influence of the dollar.
Today, the largest stablecoins are mostly pegged to the dollar. USDT and USDC hold dominant positions in the market, and the reserves of their issuers include significant amounts of U.S. government bonds.
As a result, the global spread of dollar stablecoins can effectively create a new digital channel for the international use of the dollar.
And here lies a fundamental difference between China and the USA.
🇺🇸 The USA is the center of global capital inflow and the issuer of the main world reserve currency.
🇨🇳 China, on the contrary, has a system of capital movement control and currency restrictions.
Therefore, for Beijing, $BTC and stablecoins are not just a matter of price, speculation, or financial risks.
They are a potential tool that can be used to bypass currency control, move capital, and gradually weaken control over money circulation.
Bitcoin may be worth $100,000, $1 million, or drop by 90% — this is a secondary issue.
For the Chinese authorities, the more important question is whether there is a digital "backdoor" to bypass the capital control system.
That is why expecting China to fully open its domestic cryptocurrency market anytime soon is most likely an overly optimistic scenario. Rising Logic: Resonance Between Liquidity Hunting and Retracement in the Discount Zone
The overall structure of the current market presents a wide-range oscillation pattern, with price movements consistently revolving around the core liquidity area. In the previous probe, after the price reached resistance near 872, it retraced accordingly. This process is not the end of the trend but a typical "liquidity hunting" behavior at the resistance level. From the perspective of trading psychology and market structure, key resistance levels are often difficult to break through in one go; the market needs repeated testing to exhaust selling pressure above and accumulate sufficient momentum.
The depth of this retracement precisely falls at the 70% Fibonacci retracement level, which highly coincides with the POC (Point of Control) and accurately retraces the bullish order block on the 12-hour timeframe. This is a technically significant signal, indicating that the market found solid buyer support during the retracement. It is worth noting that during this process, the price briefly broke below the 850 support level. However, in mature trading logic, the interchange of support and resistance is not the core driving force of the rise, because support levels often exist to be broken—"no break, no build" is the norm for the market to cleanse floating positions and reshape structure.
The true rising logic lies in the retracement within an uptrend precisely seeking internal liquidity and retracing to the bullish order block in the discount zone, then continuing the upward momentum driven by buying pressure. The current price action perfectly fits this logic: after retracing to the key demand zone and gaining support, the market is now set for another upward attack. I helped you rewrite it into a Chinese style more like crypto market news + personal experience + risk education, keeping the original drama while adding some market insights:
Writing
I hadn’t opened my wife’s OK account for half a year. Today when I checked it, my feelings can only be described in four words: both laughable and tearful.
I originally opened this account for her, intending for her to slowly learn investing. Back then, I seriously explained to her about $BTC, $ETH position management, stop-loss discipline, and risk control.
But when she listened, she nodded vigorously; when it came to actually placing orders—she completely followed her own ideas.
After a round of messing around, the account kept shrinking, leaving only about 20,000.
What’s even more ridiculous is that there’s a $OL inside, which has dropped nearly 96%.
What does 96% mean? Assuming the principal was 100,000, now only 4,000 remains. If it drops a bit more, it’s no longer a “long-term investment” but more like a “digital memorabilia collection.”
I asked her why she didn’t stop the loss, and her answer was surprisingly calm:
"Anyway, I haven’t looked at it for a long time."
At that moment, I suddenly realized that in crypto there might really be a kind of "alternative risk control"—not checking the market, not trading, not logging in, at least you won’t keep chasing highs and lows. 😂
Of course, this doesn’t mean that ignoring your positions long-term is the right investment approach. The real problem isn’t how much a certain coin has dropped, but that many beginners have no clear investment logic when buying:
Why buy?
How long are you prepared to hold?
What’s the maximum loss you can bear? Bitcoin has a real macro shift — nonfarm payrolls at 29,000, and the rate hike probability dropped from 70% to 25%. There is real buying power — Binance net bought 618 million in 1 hour, and the 85,000 sell wall was eaten up. There is real accumulation by whales — addresses holding 10 to 10,000 coins increased by 41,025 coins over 10 days, and the accumulation trend chart shows a contraction pattern similar to before the two big rallies in 2025. There is a real regulatory ace up the sleeve — the SEC’s 760-page proposal opened the door itself during the legislative vacuum.
But Bitcoin also has real issues: ETF inflows dropped from 2.4 billion to 82.9 million, liquidity above 87,000 is "no longer obvious," meaning the sell pressure above is thin but so is the buying, the distribution zone from 90,000 to 95,000 has historically been touched very rarely, and the market makers’ hedging adjustments after options settlement are uncertain in direction.
87,000 is not a "breakout." 87,000 is the level where, after the sell wall was eaten, buyers are probing how much resistance remains above. If volume pushes above 88,400, 90,000 is the next gate. If 88,400 is rejected, 84,500–84,600 is the next defense line.
Don’t talk about "chasing highs" on a night when 648 million shorts are being buried alive. First see if 88,400 can be eaten. If it is, 90,000 is waiting. If not, 84,500 is supporting the bottom.
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出