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BTC 85210, peaked at 85428, I've been watching OKX, finally poked out of the 84800 quagmire. The whole weekend was spent hovering around 84800, now it has finally pushed up a bit, not much, but at least it hasn't continued to stay dead.
I glanced at the order book, the buy orders above 85000 are thicker than a few days ago, 85500-85800 is the next hurdle, if it breaks through without volume, it will come back. The volume is slightly higher than yesterday, but not explosive, more like a tentative push at the end of the weekend, not a trend start.
$BTC key levels I marked:
Support: 84500-84800, as long as it doesn't break on the pullback, it's still strong; if broken, look at 84000.
Resistance: 85500-85800, only with volume breaking above can we look at 86500-87000.
My operation: I haven't re-entered after reducing position at 86800, holding bullets. If it pulls back near 84800 with shrinking volume and stops falling, I'll lightly buy in, stop loss below 84300; if it directly rushes to 85800 without volume, I'll continue to reduce. At this position, chasing longs risks a false breakout, let's wait and see. Brothers, the short position has taken off! Short it, this time we made a profit!
$USELESS perpetual, 10x short, opening average price 0.30254, latest transaction price 0.24041, unrealized profit on the short position directly +205.29%.
When these altcoins start to surge, I get a bit itchy.
The crazier it rises, the more I want to see when it will deflate.
This time USELESS crashed down from a high point, and the short position finally made a profit, really satisfying.
Brothers, remember, when you encounter such altcoin surges, don’t just think about chasing the rise.
When the rise is ridiculous, you have to mercilessly watch for shorting opportunities.
Of course, the premise is to control your position size, don’t send yourself into the meat grinder just to grab this bite of profit.
This time let me fully enjoy this bite of $USELESS profit. Haha!
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Data from early October shows that PumpSwap under Pump.fun led Solana DEX in September with a trading volume of $15 billion. However, strangely, the fundamental positive news did not drive the token price up; instead, $PUMP fell more than 3.8% within 24 hours. The market exhibited a classic "volume-price divergence" and "positive news fully priced in" scenario. Traders realized that platform revenue was not effectively converting into token buy pressure, and early lurking funds took advantage of the positive news to wildly take profits, triggering a long squeeze.
Seizing the divergence opportunity, I shorted the PUMPUSDT perpetual contract on OKX. Entered at an average price of 0.006353 with 50x leverage, marked price 0.006247, floating profit 83.42%.
The positive news fully priced in triggered selling. But after the sharp drop, the risk of chasing shorts increased significantly; 50x leverage is prone to liquidation, so maintain a calm mindset. $ZEC $SOL #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 90 hasn't been reached, why it's more important than reaching it
$HYPE returned from 87.85 to around 88.7 in the evening.
90 still hasn't been reclaimed.
How this number is calculated:
From 87.85 to 88.7, it rose less than 1%.
This range is called a recovery, not a reversal to strength.
At the moment of triggering:
When the price approaches 90, what matters is whether the buying pressure holds.
Rushing up and then retreating is different from standing above and not falling back.
$LINK is between 13.85 and 13.96.
$DOGE is still around 0.093.
None of the three have a clear direction, yet hands tend to get heavier at this time.
At the 90 level, there are people who bought at previous highs.
They want to exit once they break even, so selling pressure is waiting there.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 #美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $HYPE $LINK [Pharaoh's Market Watch]
My inbox exploded, everyone is asking Pharaoh whether Besent's statement that rising US Treasury yields align with global trends is the truth or just passing the buck?
Pharaoh says directly: half true, half false. Indeed, governments worldwide are borrowing like crazy; long-term yields in Japan and Europe are also soaring—this is the truth. But the US's own $40 trillion debt, $1.2 trillion annual interest, plus tech giants queuing up to issue bonds and raise money, this burden can't be shifted to the global stage. Besent's comment is like Pharaoh losing his water jug in the desert and then saying "the whole world is thirsty."
The market isn't stupid either. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still around 5.3%, and the 30-year stubbornly holds above 5.6%. With borrowing costs this high, risk assets are definitely being suppressed. Bitcoin is hovering near 85,000, pinned down by this blade.
But Pharaoh must say the other side: the more US Treasuries become a hot potato, the stronger the long-term narrative for Bitcoin as a "non-sovereign asset" becomes. Short-term bloodletting, long-term waiting for cracks.
Follow Pharaoh, and your wealth won't lose its way! $BTC $ETH $ZEC #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 In the past 24 hours, $BTC has risen slightly by about 0.7%, with the overall trend remaining stable. Meanwhile: 🔹 $SLX has underperformed BTC by about 1.2 percentage points 🔹 $GIGGLE has outperformed BTC by about 2.4 percentage points This indicates that some funds may be seeking higher volatility altcoin opportunities, but it is not yet confirmed that a full Altcoin Rotation has begun. 📊 Next, focus on whether BTC can hold around $84K, and whether ETH, SOL, and other high Beta assets can continue to outperform. If BTC continues to trade sideways while altcoins remain relatively strong, market rotation signals may further strengthen. Currently, BTC remains the core anchor for the overall market direction, and altcoin strength still requires more sustainability to be confirmed. $BTC $SLX $GIGGLE #MarketComparison #Crypto #AltcoinRotation #BTC ⚠️ NFA — DYOR, manage your position size and risk. One cent, how many times does it need to multiply to become one hundred million?
Answer: 30 times.
1 yuan → 27 times
10 yuan → 24 times
2000 yuan → 16 times
10,000 yuan → 14 times
100,000 yuan → 10 times
1,000,000 yuan → 7 times
This is compound interest.
The scariest part is not the first doubling, but when the principal grows larger, each doubling generates more money than the last.
Of course, in reality, it's hard to double 30 times in a row.
But this number tells you one thing:
What truly changes wealth is never a sudden fortune, but continuous growth.
Starting low is not scary.
Stopping growth is scary.CT's intraday volatility is about 12.7%, with a trading volume exceeding $118 million, yet it only dropped about 2.4% in 24 hours.
As of 20:12 Beijing time, OKEx spot price is approximately $0.49417, with a 24-hour high of $0.52071 and a low of $0.462; the current price is slightly above the Beijing time daily opening price of $0.49294, indicating that after significant fluctuations, the direction remains undecided.
OKEx data shows the nominal value of perpetual open interest is about $4.47 million, the current funding rate is approximately 0.005%, and the perpetual contract is trading at a discount of about 0.14% compared to spot. The price is near flat while the position size is considerable; no obvious one-sided funding is observed on the contract side, indicating that longs and shorts are still competing after high turnover.
My judgment is that today looks more like high turnover digestion rather than a one-sided continuation. The easiest misjudgment is to take a billion-yuan trading volume directly as a breakout confirmation; if the high and low points repeatedly change hands without a directional close, even large volume may just be chip transfer.
Next, watch $0.52071 and $0.462. If the previous high is broken with active volume and no sharp increase in open interest, the structure may strengthen; if the low is broken while open interest increases, bears regain dominance and the current judgment fails.
$CT 📰 【The New York Times: Binance Valued at $75 Billion When MGX Invests in Early 2025】
BlockBeats reports that on October 4, according to The New York Times, an insider revealed that Abu Dhabi investment group MGX agreed to invest $2 billion in Binance in early 2025, valuing Binance at $75 billion. MGX believes Binance is the ideal bridge connecting cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence—a high-tech fund transfer service that could enable automated AI "agents" to make payments on behalf of real users in the future.
Middle Eastern capital values the leading platform at $75 billion, essentially betting on the long-term payment channel. For ordinary players, with compliant entry points opening and more capital flowing, the interaction and airdrop narratives of the old ecosystem may be repriced. Which track will you bet on early? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 📊 $BTC Long-Term Holders are showing a major structural difference this cycle.
Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV stayed above 1 throughout the entire cycle, meaning this cohort never fell into an overall unrealized-loss position.
In previous bear markets since at least 2015, LTH-MVRV dropped below 1 at the cycle lows, putting long-term holders underwater. This time, it bottomed above 1 and is now climbing again. 📈[Old Leek Observation]
BlackRock has put three investment portfolios on-chain, but $ONDO has already fallen back from its peak.
Entry: $0.480–$0.500
Take Profit: $0.525 / $0.550 / $0.580 / $0.620 / $0.680
Stop Loss: $0.455
Ondo recently launched three on-chain investment portfolios, with strategies provided by BlackRock, covering high yield, diversified growth, and high growth respectively.
Users can now hold a single on-chain token to gain exposure to an entire portfolio, which can also be transferred on-chain and integrated into DeFi.
This approach actually goes beyond simply putting RWA government bonds on-chain:
Previously, it was about putting a single asset on-chain; now it’s about putting the "investment portfolio" itself on-chain.
ONDO surged close to $0.59 after September 24 but has now returned to about $0.49.
If RWA continues to be the market’s main theme, what’s more worth watching for ONDO here is the capital support after the pullback, rather than chasing the initial wave.
Watch for $0.50 to hold again before considering further upside.Just opened and saw the market pulling up, the AI sector is really fierce today. NEAR was so tempting that I immediately went long; the stop loss was originally set at $4.7, but within a minute the wick hit 4.68 and stopped out, which is good to lose less and avoid being deeply trapped. The dip was too harsh, who knew it would surge nearly five points the next day, catching the main upward wave, I barely had time to regret it. This kind of stock is just made to punish impulsiveness. What happened to cause the rise? I only saw some news snippets about the AI sector warming up, didn’t look closely, probably funds came in too. The market is really tough, only I am suffering. #AI板块回暖？ $NEAR #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $BTC has been consolidating for a week, here’s the distribution on the liquidation map!
The bears are really aggressive; as soon as the price rises a bit, they rush in! Are they really that bearish on Bitcoin?
Look! If the price reaches 86500, 1.6 billion worth of short positions will be liquidated.
That means the price only needs to rise another 1000! This provides such huge liquidity, and as usual, the chance of an upward move is very high.
I have already placed a take-profit order for my long position at 86543 in advance.
I’m not expecting it to go much higher because I’ve analyzed it for a long time.
I reviewed history, analyzed current indicators, the open interest of profit-taking positions, and the cost basis of the trapped positions above.
I believe it won’t break 89000 in the short term.
So there’s no need for me to gamble on it going much higher for less than a 3% gain! What’s in the pocket is what’s yours.
Even if my analysis is wrong, I accept it!
The above is my personal opinion for reference only! 最脆弱的一环其实是情绪，不是价格。 ETH 真跌破 2500 会先洗掉谁？ 昨天以太从 2750 滑落一百点，看着不夸张，但那种来回拉扯最磨人。我盯盘时最大的感受是，这次不像单纯回调，更像杠杆在悄悄换手。衍生品视角下，价格只是结果，持仓和资金费率才是情绪的温度计。每次这种反复僵持，多头不愿认输、空头也不敢重仓，最后往往不是被方向打败，而是被时间耗到被迫平仓。 偏多的逻辑也还在。非农只增 2.9 万、失业率升到 4.2%，理论上压住加息预期，对风险资产是缓一口气的；只要 BTC 稳住，ETH 在 2500 上方重新凝聚买盘，山寨的情绪就有机会跟着修复。问题是，ETF 现货同步转为流出，说明边际买盘在退，热度降温时，反弹更容易被卖盘接走。 我自己的判断偏谨慎。明天开盘到下周，大概率还是震荡偏弱，2500 是个情绪分水岭，跌破会触发一轮挤压，守住则可能只是震荡降风险的过程。真正要防的，是大家只盯着点位，却忽略持仓还在高位、费率一旦转向，脆弱点会先炸在情绪上。美伊局势和 G7 储备释放这类消息，也会放大短线波动。 结论：情绪没修复前，反弹都先当减压，不当反转。 以上仅为个人盘面观察，不构成任何Checked BTC perpetual contracts at 2:30: spot around 84955, contracts at 84914, funding rate slightly positive at 0.003%, nominal open interest still at 2.42 billion. Long-short account ratio is 1.31, leaning bullish; compared to the 0:00 open at 84864, slightly closed in the green, daily high at 85078, low at 84550.
Funding rate just turned slightly positive, open interest has not dissipated, liquidation volume in recent hours is very low. Short-term watch to see if it can break the daily high of 85078 to gain buying support; if it falls below 84550, do not chase the rise.
$ETH is oscillating near 2693, with a similar rhythm.
$BTC $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
This does not constitute investment advice, the market has risks, please be cautious when entering.847,666 BTC, held by one person.
Outsiders might not get it, so let me put it this way: this number is more than the treasury of many countries.
Saylor posted again, "More orange than ever," with a purchase record image. The usual routine, the market immediately understands, he's buying again.
But what really caught my eye was the cost, averaging 75,400. The current total value is 72.29 billion.
Before, when he bought coins, people laughed and said he was crazy. Now, when he posts, a bunch of people start guessing how much he bought this time.
From being mocked to being closely watched, that change is quite interesting.
But honestly, whether he buys or not, and whether the short-term price rises, are actually two different things.
Do you think the market will buy into this this time?
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $BTC This week's highlight: The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will successively release the minutes of their October meetings.
Federal Reserve side: The market has priced in rate cuts; the key focus of the minutes is on the "subsequent pace"—whether it will be continuous easing or a wait-and-see approach. A dovish tilt → risk assets continue to live, catching up; a hawkish tilt → expectations retract, crypto follows US stocks in pulling back.
ECB side: Eurozone growth is weak, inflation is falling; if the minutes signal "further easing," the dollar will come under pressure, liquidity expectations will ease, which is indirectly positive for crypto.
Conclusion: The two sets of minutes are "liquidity weather vanes," not single-day explosive events
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 AVAX 10.98｜LINK 14.08｜NEAR 4.88｜SUI 1.18｜HBAR 0.10
All five mid-caps are fluctuating together, with NEAR rising the most sharply, nearly 5% in one day; AVAX is still grinding below water, and LINK is holding strong. The overall trend in the past few days has been weak, more like profit-taking rather than a crash. AVAX holds at 10.5, targeting 11.5; LINK at 14, if not broken, targets 15; NEAR 4.7 is the watershed; if SUI can't hold 1.15, it will return to 1.1; HBAR 0.098 is the lifeline. Roles: AVAX defines strength, LINK defines oracle, NEAR defines resilience, SUI watches Move, HBAR watches enterprise chains. If BTC rebounds to 85K tonight, the mid-caps will all breathe a sigh of relief. $AVAX $LINK #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 The most feared thing in the emergency room at 3 a.m. is not a heart attack, but postoperative patients pulling out their own drainage tubes—$VINE is currently in this state.
A 7.02% increase over 24 hours, short-term RSI surged to 70.6. This is not a strong cardiac output; it is compensatory tachycardia caused by sympathetic nervous system overexcitation. The true myocardial contractility is reflected by the long-term RSI—47.7, neutral, showing no improvement. In other words, this rise is blood pressure supported by peripheral vasoconstriction; the heart itself has not strengthened.
The Bollinger Bands are even more straightforward: the short-term price position is 112%, with the price piercing the upper band by 0.8%, indicating a valvular regurgitation-type overflow; while the mid-term position is only 62%, still 4.8% below the upper band. The conflicting readings from these two monitors indicate localized electrical activity disorder, not sinus rhythm. The 1-hour RSI standing at 64 triggers a sell signal, equivalent to a premature ventricular contraction appearing on the ECG—single occurrences can be observed, but continuous appearances are a precursor to ventricular tachycardia.
My judgment: this is not an emergency requiring open-chest surgery, but it definitely requires immediate position reduction and load decrease, preparing for extracorporeal circulation. The price still has an 8.1% buffer before the lower Bollinger Band, indicating the real bleeding points are at the 9.2% and 7.6% levels below, which correspond to two clear hemostatic clamp positions.
📉 Short:
Entry: $0.01 (current price +1.0%)
Take Profit 1: $0.01 (-9.2%)
Take Profit 2: $0.01 (-7.6%)
Stop Loss: $0.01 (+11.5%)
This stop loss at +11.5% is equivalent to leaving a safety margin for an aortic dissection—exceeding this means I misjudged; it’s not arrhythmia but structural rupture, and surgery must be immediately terminated. The two take profit points correspond to the 9.2% and 7.6% downward paths, representing the sequence of closing the chest first, then withdrawing extracorporeal circulation, which must not be reversed.
The core conclusion is simple: a short-term position at 112% combined with a long-term RSI of only 47.7 is a typical hemodynamic illusion; the heart has not strengthened, it is just being supported by vasoactive drugs. What needs to be done now is volume reduction, not blood transfusion. Only 3 days into the month, the ETH unlocking queue has surged 392%, that's intense.
The amount waiting to be unlocked has nearly quintupled, small retail investors can't match this scale, it's obvious that whales are liquidating in bulk. There's a queue period for unlocking, these coins haven't been received yet, so the selling pressure is like holding back a big move.
The real test will be the day they start flowing into exchanges one after another, short-term longs should be cautious.
$ETH Known whale "Corus" has spent $200K accumulating 7.14M $EDEL.
The trader has made an incredible profit of $34.95M on #Hyperliquid and still holds 137,096 $HYPE ($12.27M).
And $EDEL has surged 750% over the past 2 months.On October 2, 2026, South Korea's three major exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone) officially lifted the trading warning label on $SAND, fully restoring deposits and withdrawals. This directly cleared the regulatory haze since the cross-chain bridge incident in August. Repressed Korean funds poured in wildly, combined with a technical breakout above the key resistance at $0.065, SAND surged over 60% in a single day. The market shorts were caught off guard, triggering a severe short squeeze.
Following the trend, I went long on the SANDUSDT perpetual contract on OKX. Opened a position at an average price of 0.07389 with 50x leverage, currently holding, with the mark price rising to 0.07579, floating profit at 128.56%.
The lifting of the warning ignited the bulls. But 50x leverage has an extremely low tolerance for error; even a slight reverse spike can lead to liquidation. Avoid blindly chasing highs and pay attention to risk control. $XRP $NEAR #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 In the endgame of close combat, the most dangerous piece is never the opponent's queen, but the false belief that you still have the initiative.
In the current $UMA game, White has just made a seemingly strong pawn push — a 1.96% increase in 24 hours, as slight as an inconsequential flank advance in the opening phase. But the real threat lies in the piece structure: the short-term RSI has climbed to 68.0, approaching the overbought threshold, while the long-term RSI remains stuck at a neutral 45.8. This divergence between short and long cycles is like a lone elephant deep in enemy territory—looking imposing but actually cut off from reinforcements.
More critically, the Bollinger Bands coordinates reveal the risk. In the short-term channel, the price has reached 118% of the range, 0.3% above the upper band — this is not strength, but reckless overextension. Any grandmaster seeing their pawn chain stretched like this would first think to adjust, not to press forward. The mid-term channel is only at 80%, but the space between upper and lower bands is compressed to just 3.9%, like a closed elephant's eye, leaving very limited room for maneuver.
So the current signal is clear: SELL. This is not defense, but a proactive sacrifice to lure the opponent. The market tempts you with a small bullish candle close to 2%, but the real short position should be set at a higher level — $0.38, about 3.2% above the current price. That is precisely the exhaustion point after repeated tests of the short-term upper band.
My endgame calculation is as follows:
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.38 (current price +3.2%)
Take Profit 1: 0.35 (-3.0%)
Take Profit 2: 0.34 (-5.4%)
Stop Loss: 0.42 (+15.2%)
Note the risk-reward structure of this game: the first target is only 7.9% downward from entry, the second target 10.5%, while the stop loss at 0.42 means that if breached, you must endure a counterattack exceeding 15% from entry — this defensive line is as wide as an intentionally abandoned open file. Why? Because grandmasters never place stop losses at tactical points, but at strategic failure points. Above 0.42, the entire short structure is truly broken.
Now, $UMA holders face the same situation: do you continue to push forward, or recognize that this flank has no reinforcements? The short-term RSI reading of 68.0 does not lie, nor does the -0.3% negative premium at the upper band. The decisive move in this game lies within this 3.2% bull trap zone. Make your move. #strategyplaybookA whale withdrew 14,000 ZEC, is this wave going to crush the shorts?
The whole network is bearish, but I opened a long at 1280. The reasons are solid, come argue if you disagree.
First, whales are frantically accumulating. On-chain data shows that a certain whale has withdrawn over 14,000 ZEC from Binance and Gate in one month, worth about $20 million, at an average price of $1140. Even more aggressive, another whale's main wallet holds over $66 million, and during the pullback, not only did it not flee, it added positions. Smart money didn't leave above 1400, but is buying at 1280—are you following or not?
Second, Grayscale's valuation framework is far from the ceiling. ZEC's market cap as a percentage of BTC rose from 0.1% a year ago to 1.5%, and Grayscale research head Zach Pandl clearly stated this "reflects a low starting point and a huge addressable market, not a valuation bubble." In the last cycle, XRP, LTC, and DASH all exceeded 3% of BTC's market cap, so ZEC still has a lot of room to grow.
Third, the ecosystem is rapidly landing. THORChain's ZEC liquidity pool just went live, and native cross-chain trading is about to open. The NU7 upgrade will shorten block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, while keeping the halving mechanism unchanged. Fundamentals are improving, this is not just a pure sentiment-driven pump.
Technical aspect: The 1280-1300 range and the 4-hour EMA200 support at 1228 form a strong resonance zone, with multiple retests without breaking. $ZEC $ZEC $SOL Family, I really woke up to the sky falling. ETC slipped nearly two points during the day, grinding down from 8.82 to just under 8.8. I thought it was about time and opened a short position, but ended up closing it out impulsively; today it dropped further, and slapping my thigh won’t help. At this level, I wanted to bottom-fish but held back seeing how the overall market looks terrible. Old chains collapse suddenly and feel unsafe, liquidity is far worse than new coins, and the order book is so thin it breaks with a touch. This market either kills the timid or supports the bold; ETC’s trading volume this round is sluggish compared to anyone else, no one is really playing. Good morning, genius traders, today is another day of being schooled by the market. $ETC #Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BAND Damn it! BAND's pump-and-dump manipulators really know how to play, hovering around 0.22 for three days, then just now a sharp drop straight down to 0.218, the group chat was full of wails. Experienced traders immediately recognized this as a blatant shakeout. 🔥
On-chain data doesn't lie; the big players are dumping real money down and quickly buying back, scheming something. I tentatively entered a position at 0.2273, set my stop loss at 0.215—if it breaks, I accept the loss; if not, I hold on.
This market can explode irrationally, so don't wait until it rockets to chase. Know your limits and manage your position size well.
👇👇👇The operational approach remains unchanged: on one side, mainstream leading assets; on the other, low-position established public chains. The barbell strategy is the most stable—don't put all your eggs in one basket. Spot: Hold HBAR. The on-chain real transaction count of Hedera's enterprise-grade public chain is still climbing, and institutional cooperation is visibly increasing. The backing by that tech giant is not empty; Contracts: Long HBAR, targeting the $0.11 level, with a stop loss set below $0.095. If it breaks, just exit—don't stubbornly hold. Previously tried a trade on SUI series, but data was poor so didn't add; the result was unexpected—it dragged on so long, minimizing losses is winning. The strategy is laid out here; everyone judge for themselves. $HBAR #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 AVAX is slightly under pressure today, retreating after an intraday rally, indicating there is still some selling pressure above. Avalanche's long-term narrative remains strong, with subnets, institutional chains, RWA, and gaming ecosystems all being key market focus areas in the past. However, current capital is more selective, and only ecosystem data and actual business growth can support a sustained market trend. Recently, the market has been repeatedly pricing around stablecoins, institutional products, and regulatory news, and AVAX has not yet formed a particularly strong independent driver. If the overall L1 sector warms up later, AVAX has high elasticity; but with insufficient volume, the trend will most likely continue to be characterized by repeated fluctuations. $AVAXWhales: stocking up.
Retail investors: playing dead.
ETF: stalling.
In 10 days, whales swallowed 41,025 BTC.
Total holdings 13.64 million BTC, accounting for 67.93% of circulation.
Six-week high.
Small wallets? Flat.
Translation:
Not buying.
Not watching.
Not my business.
ETF net inflow 82.9 million.
Previous week 2.39 billion.
Shrunk by 97%.
Stalling faster than my ex.
Whales are scooping up.
ETF is down.
Retail investors are lying flat.
Chips are moving from weak hands to strong hands.
March 2020.
November 2022.
January 2023.
After that? Check yourself.
Anyway, it’s not about giving out red envelopes.
BTC touched 87,000 three times and got smashed.
But the lows are rising.
83,000 is the bottom line.
Whale cost zone.
Retail investors not buying, ETF slowing down.
Shows no FOMO yet.
The real top is when security guards ask how to buy coins.
Now? Security guards are binge-watching short dramas.
Below 85,000, hold spot.
No leverage.
No chasing highs.
Just venting, don’t follow trades.
$BTC $ETH
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 At the end of September, on-chain monitoring detected that a long-dormant wallet (0x48E9) associated with the $QUANT founder suddenly transferred 25,776 QNT (worth approximately $6.97 million) after 7 years of silence, and the address still holds 600,000 QNT. This massive whale movement completely triggered market panic in early October. Coupled with QNT's sharp surge in September, the RSI indicator was severely overbought (once exceeding 81), signaling an urgent need for a deep technical correction. Spot selling pressure intensified, and long stop-loss orders in the futures market were densely triggered.
Seizing the opportunity of the whale's sell-off, I shorted the QUANTUSDT perpetual contract on OKX. Entered at an average price of 262.8 with 50x leverage, marked price at 254.9, floating profit of 150.30%.
Chip loosening triggered panic. However, chasing shorts after a crash carries high risk; 50x leverage is prone to liquidation, so maintain a stable mindset. $HYPE $XRP #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 A common cross-coin signal: AI and decentralized computing narratives are quietly flowing back. Today, these types of assets are clearly outperforming the broader market, with capital selecting public chains that have real computing power. On the ICP side, the Internet Computer concept surged over two points to $3.339, but overall volume has not fully caught up yet; the price is still in the recovery zone. The unpriced catalyst is the developer return driven by on-chain smart contracts and edge computing implementation. AVAX similarly is expanding subnets, but the distribution of chips raises doubts about sustainability. SUI relies on the Move ecosystem, with sentiment outweighing fundamentals. Before the direction becomes clear, remain patient. $ICP $AVAX $SUI #标普领投Kaiko，布局链上数据标准 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 SUI showed a slight strengthening today, with little intraday volatility but closing near the high, indicating that funds are gradually accumulating at lower levels. The highlights of Sui remain its high-performance public chain, blockchain gaming, DeFi, and consumer-grade application ecosystem, making it an L1 asset that is easily rediscovered when market risk appetite improves. Currently, the broader market has not experienced a widespread rally, and SUI's ability to maintain relative stability itself indicates that selling pressure is not heavy. However, this type of new public chain asset is quite sensitive to market sentiment. If on-chain activity, ecosystem projects, and liquidity do not improve in sync later, it will be difficult for it to sustain an independent trend solely based on market rebounds. $SUIFor those teachers who still want to bottom-fish or go long during this wave of volatility, pay attention. On the DOT side, Polkadot 2.0 and agile core narratives are still ongoing, and the underlying cross-chain interoperability is quietly iterating. Developers have never truly left. The current price is $1.193. Whether the funds recognize it depends on what happens next. If the daily chart holds above 1.22, then a pullback is a buying opportunity, and you can follow the trend with a target of 1.3; if it breaks below 1.15, then it will most likely pull back to 1.1 before stabilizing, which will be the real opportunity—don’t get ahead of yourself. How to choose is up to you, teachers; don’t rush blindly. No hurry, just watch. $DOT #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 Rumors of OpenPayd IPO, $ENA price only down -0.42%
$ENA currently at 0.238, 24h +1.8%. The increase looks mild, but I'm directly bullish — rumors not yet priced in by the market mean room to grow.
OpenPayd rumored to IPO by year-end with a valuation of $1.1 billion, after the $ENA event price only moved from 0.239 to 0.238, down -0.42%. The new story of stablecoin payment infrastructure, but the market just isn't buying it.Recently, there's an interesting phenomenon: everyone is talking about who is leading the trend between BTC and SOL, but no one mentions TRX, this silent stablecoin channel. The mainstream view is that it has no story and can't rise, but in reality, the on-chain stablecoin settlement volume it supports has been steadily increasing, and the real use of payments and transfers has never stopped. The ecosystem's ability to generate value is seriously underestimated. Funds are just temporarily not focusing on it, but once the sector rotates and ignites, this low-volatility base will actually be more resilient. The assets that don't fall are what retail investors should really pay attention to. Use your own judgment and think it through yourself; don't get carried away by emotions. This round, TRX is the one to really watch. $TRX #美日确认联合购汇 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 POL's trend is slightly oscillating upward, with overall strength not particularly aggressive, but support at low levels remains. Polygon's advantage lies in Ethereum scaling, enterprise cooperation, and a solid foundation in multi-chain layout. However, the market currently places more emphasis on actual on-chain data and the implementation efficiency of the ZK route. Recently, the market has not formed a one-sided trend; assets like POL, which have a more infrastructure-oriented nature, usually do not explode first. But when funds flow back from pure meme to mainstream ecosystem themes, they tend to regain attention. Going forward, the focus will be on observing ecosystem activity, progress related to stablecoins and RWA, and whether volume can support price strength. $POLThe listing date for A÷ is basically set.
Bloomberg reports that Anthropic @AnthropicAI will hold an investor day on October 14, a roadshow during the week of November 9, aiming to list before Thanksgiving, with a valuation range of $1.8 trillion to $2 trillion.
Despite the complaints, the first IPO in history still needs to be participated in; it shouldn't open below the issue price.
Let's see if there are channels in the crypto circle/Australia, hopefully not like last time with $SPCX, where the whole network got stood up.🤣NIGHT is experiencing relatively large fluctuations today, first dipping then recovering during the session. The market pricing for this new theme has not yet fully stabilized. Midnight focuses on privacy and compliance compatibility, backed by the Cardano ecosystem, with a distinctive narrative. However, new tokens are usually most affected by circulation structure, airdrop expectations, and short-term holdings. Current trading remains active, indicating ongoing attention, but the divergence between bulls and bears is also quite evident. If ecosystem progress, developer participation, and practical application news continue to be released, market discussion may persist; if only sentiment-driven tug-of-war remains, the price is more likely to experience back-and-forth consolidation. $NIGHTOn Friday's BTC ETF data, before IBIT was announced, the overall preliminary statistics recorded a net inflow of about $31.7 million. After the IBIT data was released, the final net inflow was revised up to about $103 million, which is a decent performance.
On the market, frequent turnover occurred around 87,000, with selling pressure mainly coming from trapped positions from last November to this January, indicating that current confidence remains weak and there is a clear divergence between bulls and bears. However, many funds exiting the market may not be a long-term bearish stance but rather a conventional response to macro headwinds by reducing positions first and then replenishing later.
In the short term, if BTC can oscillate repeatedly between 84,000 and 87,000, gradually digesting the overhead supply, and 84,000 holds, after short-term positions are cleared and the macro environment warms up, the probability of an upward breakout will increase. For now, patience is still needed to observe whether it will directly hit new highs or first pull back to gather momentum. $ETH $ZEC $BTC
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 PUMP's performance today is clearly stronger than many altcoins, with increased intraday volatility and relatively active trading, indicating that short-term funds are still active in the meme and token issuance platform sectors. The logic behind PUMP is straightforward: when market risk appetite rises, on-chain speculative enthusiasm, the number of token issuances, and expected transaction fees all get amplified; but when sentiment weakens, the speed of fund withdrawal is often the fastest. Currently, it looks more like a rebound driven by hype rather than a trend gradually emerging purely based on fundamentals. Going forward, the focus will be on whether trading volume and on-chain activity can synchronize; otherwise, high volatility may recur. $PUMPThis wave of XLM seems more like a mild recovery following the overall market, with little intraday volatility, but trading volume is not quiet, indicating that funds are still watching at the low level. The core highlights of Stellar have always been cross-border payments, stablecoin settlement, and real-world financial integration, making it a well-established public chain with practical applications, though its narrative is not the hottest. The current market is more sensitive to news about regulation and institutional products. If mainstream coin sentiment warms up, XLM has a chance to gain catch-up attention; however, in the short term, watch whether the volume can continue to expand, otherwise it may easily turn into a sideways consolidation after a spike. $XLMEthereum Glamsterdam is entering a critical testing phase, with the Sepolia public test expected on October 6, while the mainnet upgrade is still anticipated in Q4 2026, with the exact date yet to be determined. This upgrade focuses on ePBS (proposer-builder separation) and Block-Level Access Lists, aiming to pave the way for parallel processing, higher throughput, and future block size expansion. Some tests have already progressed toward the 200 million Gas capacity target. If subsequent tests go smoothly and developers continue to advance, the fundamental narrative for ETH in Q4 could be further strengthened. Technical upgrades + scaling expectations + ecosystem demand might be more worth watching than short-term price fluctuations. ⚙️🔥 $ETH #Ethereum #Glamsterdam #ETHUpgrade #EthereumQ4 NFA, be aware of risks, do not blindly chase gains. Clocks can return to zero, but it will never be yesterday again
The clock hands can turn back to the original mark, but the time that has passed cannot be repeated
The trading market is the same, K-lines cycle repeatedly, and prices may return to previous points, with tempting green candles appearing again
But the same price level is no longer the same wave of the market. Market funds and overall sentiment have changed, even if the coin price replicates the past
Your position, profit and loss situation, and mindset after experience cannot return to the past
Some always hope the market will come back so they can turn things around, just thinking the chart will return to the old position, but the original opportunity and mindset will not reappear
We can review historical K-lines, but we cannot redo yesterday's trade
Current positions of Xiaoma:
ZEC long: opened at 1425.76, currently 1331.42, unrealized loss -143.39 USDT.
SOXL short: average open price 153.19, current price 163.94, -290.03 USDT, loss 70.11%, short position under continuous pressure
For these two positions, Xiaoma is heartbroken and has only one thought now: let me get out of the loss quickly, haven't made money for a long time, originally just wanted to open a small position to take a small bite and run, but one kept falling and the other kept rising. Wow
The above is just a reflection and does not constitute investment advice
$BTC $ZEC $SOXL
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 Bro, I had the chance to buy $PUMP at 0.0018, but I didn’t. Instead, I opened a short around 0.0025. That “little pill” $PUMP ’s independent rally gave me a serious lesson. Here’s why this token has been so strong: 1. Fundamentals are stronger than I expected — real revenue + deflation While many Memecoins still depend almost entirely on hype, PUMP is generating real revenue and using part of it for buybacks and burns. Daily revenue has reportedly exceeded $2M, with around 50% of net income alloAfter the non-farm payroll shock, ETH is stuck at the critical 2700 level! 73% of retail investors are chasing longs, but smart money is quietly hedging?
Why can't the positive news drive the price up?
On-chain data reveals the painful truth: the retail long-short ratio is as high as 2.76, with 73.4% of retail investors chasing longs; however, smart money's long ratio is only 60.8%, and they are performing hedging operations. Chips are shifting from retail hands to institutions; the more retail chases, the less the main players push up.
Capital flows are also diverging:
Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling about $118 million, interrupting the inflow trend in September. But don't panic, September still had a net inflow of $832 million, staking ratio has exceeded 35%, and the circulating supply is increasingly locked up.
Key levels:
Resistance above: 2706-2711 → 2750-2778 → 2825. Support below: 2684 → 2645-2660 → 2600. Only if the daily close stands above 2711 and holds can we look to 2750; if it breaks below 2684, this rally fails, and the focus shifts to 2645.$ETH $BTC In October 2026, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, amplifying uncertainties in crude oil supply. "Mubarak," as an Arabic blessing, naturally aligns with Middle Eastern cultural narratives, making it an excellent vehicle for speculative capital. Coupled with $BTC reaching an eight-month high, market risk appetite has spread to highly volatile Meme assets. The BNB Chain ecosystem shows a significant capital siphoning effect, with $MUBARAK surging over 70% in a single day and trading volume soaring to several times its market cap, bringing attention fully back.
Following the trend, going long on MUBARAKUSDT perpetual contracts on OKX. Opened position at an average price of 0.063765 with 20x leverage, currently holding as the mark price rises to 0.068899, floating profit at 161.02%.
Geopolitical narratives provide bottom-line support. However, the 20x leverage has very low tolerance for errors; even a slight adverse spike risks liquidation. Avoid blindly chasing highs and pay close attention to risk control. $BNB Citi raised BTC's 12-month target price to 113,000. Do you still think $BTC is expensive now?
The Clear Act didn't advance, yet Citi sees BTC at 113,000. Normally, with regulatory bills stalled, institutions should be more cautious. But Citi raised BTC's 12-month target price from 82,000 to 113,000 USD, and $ETH from 2240 to 3028 USD.
One path is blocked, but another is starting to move:Data shows that the group of people who rushed to buy Bitcoin near the peak of the 2025 bull market are now quietly "selling off".
Because the current price of Bitcoin has fallen below their cost basis.
The group holding Bitcoin for 6 - 12 months has an average cost basis around $89,000, currently at an unrealized loss.
The group holding Bitcoin for 1 - 2 years has an average cost basis around $97,000, also currently at an unrealized loss.10.4 Sunday $XAU
Several scenarios for Monday
1.
If the market starts to drop in the morning
Drops to 4117~4110, if it holds, consider going long
I think this is a good price to go long
If the market breaks down, I will wait for the lower levels at 4016, 3955
2.
After the market oscillates around 4140 and breaks out of the range
Consider going long once at 4140
If the market pulls back and holds at 4153
I will consider going long
3.
If the market reaches 4182~4197
I will consider going short
I have plans no matter how it moves, I will wait until Monday, 8 to 9 am
Wait to digest the fundamentals before making a move
There are no decisive fundamental news next week
Just watch what Trump and Iran say
If there is sudden news that talks are done and oil prices crash
4225, 4228 are currently strong resistances
If broken, definitely go long
After breaking, watch 4316, 4406
Fundamentally, you don’t need to put in too much effort
Trying hard to figure out some logic or another
All need to be combined with technical price judgment
Gold is a very good asset
Studying for a year basically lets you understand fundamentals combined with price
You basically understand this asset
As long as you don’t do anything stupid later, you can really make money
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $AXS unrealized profit adding to position is awesome, previously I reduced position on unrealized profit and added to losing positions which blew up many times, this time I want to go against human nature