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Yesterday, after I said I opened a short position on $ZEC, several fans asked why:
In short, it boils down to one sentence: success and failure both come from regulation. I think $ZEC is facing a double blow from regulation and valuation.
Regulation is because of the BG hack where 3.9 million ZEC dirty funds entered the privacy pool, but no one can be directly traced on-chain.
Previously, everyone said ZEC found a balance between regulation and privacy, being both private and compliant with regulatory requirements. Now it's getting serious. If it fails this big test, the previously hyped compliance will just be empty promises.
As for valuation, the data speaks for itself: in recent days, $ZEC has seen $60 million outflow from ZCSH, and AUM dropped from a peak of $1 billion to $818 million. This shows institutions are using real money to hedge risks.
Regarding technical analysis, under the big picture of fundamentals, it becomes relatively less important.Putting the ETF data of the three coins together this week is more interesting than looking at the candlestick charts.
Bitcoin, the spot ETF has returned to inflows. The arbitrage funds left a few days ago; one day of leaving is just leaving, but three consecutive days is a retreat. However, it came back in one day, and the spread business continues. Institutions' attitude towards Bitcoin is very clear: this is business, not faith.
Ethereum is still seeing outflows, not stopping for a day. The same batch of money does business with Bitcoin and comes back, but with Ethereum, they don't even want to do business. The biggest bearish factor for Ethereum now is not the price, but that no one is willing to tell its story anymore.
The most unclear is ZEC. The ETF has had outflows for three consecutive days, and the price has dropped from 1695 to 1301. Short-term hot money is indeed withdrawing. But the day after tomorrow, October 6, the NU7 testnet launches, and on November 5, the mainnet upgrade. Money is flowing out, but the story is not finished yet; the two sides are fighting.
I've been following the ZEC line for more than a month, and today is the first time I can't clearly take a side. If I say I'm worried, the upgrade dates are set in black and white. If I say I'm not worried, the three consecutive days of outflows are real money.
Three kinds of money, three attitudes. Bitcoin's money is doing business, Ethereum's money is leaving, and ZEC's money is hesitating. You say the market is weak, but Bitcoin is attracting capital. You say the market is strong, but the other two are being sold off.
So don't look at the price on this market, look at where the money flows. Prices can lie, money cannot.
#DailyOrbit 600u challenge to 1 million U!
Day 201
Starting principal 600U, target 1 million U
Currently: 1800u
Living cost: 1600u
Available funds: 200u+
Today is the 201st day of the challenge, and the available funds have not yet broken through 10,000 USD. I think it will be close to 10,000 U by the end of the year!
The overall strategy remains unchanged: earn more principal through content creation and contracts. The strategy uses a barbell approach, investing in mainstream top assets on one side, and pure silver and $BTC $ETH $ZEC on the other.
Currently holding silver spot, not too worried; contract long positions in Bitcoin and $ETH, recently protocol income has dropped sharply, continuing to observe. Need to control position size well and keep enough ammo for bottom fishing.$BTC $ETH $ZEC Gold and silver are under pressure and falling, with wide fluctuations in the market. The main reason is still the high US Treasury yields; the 10-year US Treasury yield once broke through 5.3%, and the 30-year US Treasury yield broke through 5.6%.
With US Treasury yields so high, funds are rushing to buy bonds for risk-free investment. Who would still be in the high-risk stock market and gold and silver markets?
But the US has $40 trillion in debt outstanding, and high interest expenses are there. The high yields on US Treasuries cannot be sustained and will eventually pull back. That will be the time for gold and silver to reverse. This weekend, I only made one trade. Last week's non-farm payroll market, Bitcoin still hasn't broken the high point, so it's still a difficult mode market.
Meanwhile, ETF funds are still overall in a net inflow state, so I no longer dare to short Bitcoin.
Therefore, I shorted other targets whose patterns better fit a bearish structure, one is SHIB, and the others are ASTER and DOGE.
The main reasons for not shorting Bitcoin are as follows: 1. Bitcoin's ETF funds show net inflow, and last week there was only one day of net outflow. No news is more important than funds. News only affects temporarily; funds affect the underlying logic. 2. Shorting the above two altcoins mainly because recently altcoins have been performing poorly, while Bitcoin is relatively strong. If Bitcoin really breaks through later, it will most likely be a bloodsucking market for Bitcoin, and altcoins will still find it hard to rise. 3. Technically, Bitcoin is still in a strong bullish structure. Unless there is a big bearish candle that changes the current 4-hour bullish structure. #DailyOrbit Besent, that old fox, really knows how to flatter himself. He even says, "The rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with global trends, no need to worry excessively."
Translated, this means: The U.S. is now crushed under a mountain of debt, inflation stubbornly refuses to go down, and high interest rates can only be endured.
The 10-year yield broke 5.34%, the 30-year is at a twenty-plus-year high, and even the latest cooling in non-farm payrolls can't bring it down. This is not a global trend; the U.S. is playing with fire.
All I can say is, "It's a cycle; when the economy is strong, a recession follows," which hits the nail on the head.
The current macro situation is a typical late-cycle: high interest rates are draining the real economy, and recession is inevitable.
Once recession is confirmed, the Fed has no choice but to restart the money printing machine. This is the fundamental confidence behind my steadfast holding of BTC and ETH spot.
But in the short term, the elevated U.S. Treasury yields are like a knife hanging over the crypto space, continuously draining liquidity. So the market can only grind repeatedly between 85000 and around 2700.
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 BTC climbed to 85,100 on low volume over the weekend; the worst is the slow grind, better to have a sharp move!
$BTC has been consolidating for two days, reaching 85,000. There are several data points that both bulls and bears need to watch!
First, this rally is not driven by leverage.
The total liquidations across the network in 24 hours were only $50.65 million, with long liquidations at $23.53 million and short liquidations at $27.11 million — this is a very low liquidation volume recently. The funding rate remains at a neutral to slightly negative -0.0013%, with shorts still paying to maintain positions, but leveraged longs are not aggressively accumulating. The price is slowly rising, supported by natural spot buying.
Second, BTC is still flowing out of exchanges.
In the past 7 days, there was a net outflow of 6,762 BTC from exchanges. Coinbase Pro decreased by 2,823 BTC, Binance by 1,922 BTC.
Third, the liquidation pool levels above have shifted.
Now, breaking above $88,458 triggers short liquidation intensity of $1.003 billion; breaking below $80,715 triggers long liquidation intensity of $1.045 billion. Both liquidation pools are at the billion-dollar level, but the price is stuck in the middle. Such low volatility compression historically does not last long.
My view: low-volume consolidation is not directionless; it is waiting for a catalyst. Next week’s FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and CPI (Thursday) are the real moments for directional choice. The SEC just approved the first batch of 3x leveraged crypto ETPs on Friday, slowly opening regulatory channels.
Bears are uncomfortable now, but the real test is yet to come.
$ETH $PUMP 📉 After all green: Which of the four coins holds up best, and which is getting hammered
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
$ZEC 1294, down 5.61%, dropped directly from 1390 to 1294. The 3.6% gain from the day before yesterday was fully given back and then some; privacy coins are not leading the market trend, and they fall fastest when the market dips. 1300 almost broke; if it breaks, look down to 1250. Don't bottom-fish at this level, wait for stabilization.
$BTC 84814, fell back from 86868 to 84800, the one-day gain from the non-farm payrolls was fully given back. ETF has been continuously flowing out; 85000 has turned from support back into resistance. This week watch if 84000 can hold; if it holds, it can push to 87000, if it breaks, back to 82000.
$OKB 120.04, retraced with the market but the drop is not large. High locked staking and continuous buybacks, overseas stablecoin plans are underway, 120 has held for a long time. Still some distance from the previous high of 142; platform coins are more resistant to drops than altcoins.
$RE 0.49315, fell from 0.506 to 0.493. 0.5 held for a month but almost broke today; DeFi insurance and small RWA logic remain unchanged but small coins are all being drained. 0.48 is the bottom line; if it breaks, it means funds are fleeing.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $FIL's surge over the weekend feels off. Around 1.08 looks like a makeshift platform; the more crowded it gets, the easier it is to collapse. I don't believe it can hold steady, so I tried shorting near 1.077 during the rebound, and the market indeed softened afterward. Now the key isn't whether it can reach higher, but how much confidence the bulls still have.
With halving just about ten days away, the story has been told to death and sentiment is already overdrawn. When it actually lands, it's often not fireworks but a payout. Miner sell pressure, profit-taking, and high-entry stop losses—any one of these alone is enough to cause a big shake.
The short-term lifeline below is 0.95. Once it breaks through with a wick, a slow decline mode will likely open up, and most rebounds will be desperate escape waves, not reversals. At that point, shorting with the trend is much easier than chasing shorts now.
My approach is simple: don't be greedy for the lowest point, wait for a rebound to short; follow the breakout with position sizing and stop-losses. This time with $FIL, don't be fooled by the halving filter; the market only recognizes chips and sentiment. When it really falls, those who run slow become the fuel. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 On-chain treasury makes exit rights independent of service providers
The most common risk of prepaid services is not a one-time quote, but the balance being trapped in the operator company's database. When the service stops, the account is frozen, or customer service is unreachable, the "quota" in the user's hands may become just a number that cannot be redeemed. zkAPI puts the balance into an Ethereum contract treasury, designed so that even if all service nodes disappear, users can still close the balance and retrieve assets according to contract terms.
Exit rights are the most significant part of this model. It changes "the platform promises a refund" into "the user holds an executable exit path," reducing ongoing credit dependence on a single company. $ETH here is not just a decorative payment icon but the public layer that carries asset ownership, rule enforcement, and final settlement. As long as the contract and chain remain available, the service frontend does not have the final decision authority.
However, the on-chain treasury also brings new responsibilities: contract vulnerabilities, key loss, upgrade permissions, and emergency pause mechanisms can all affect exit. Users cannot ignore management rights just because assets are recorded on-chain. When evaluating such applications, one should first ask who can modify the contract, who can pause in abnormal situations, how to recover after a pause, and then check if the interface is user-friendly. True self-custody is not a slogan but having a verifiable path even in the worst-case scenario. Don't rush to say "Bitcoin is virtual, just a string of numbers." First, take a look at your own life.
Central bank credit, Sesame Credit Score, WeChat Pay Score? Institutions that haven't signed contracts give you scores.
Mobile banking balance? A string of numbers on someone else's server.
Housing fund, pension? Account records in the system; when and how to withdraw is decided by others.
Mortgage? The legal ledger behind the house.
Airline miles, credit card points? The platform can shrink them by changing the rules.
QR code scanning, face recognition, salary arrival—aren't all of these numbers?
So the key isn't "whether it's numbers or not," but who controls the ledger.
Most ledgers can be frozen, altered, or reset by others.
Bitcoin is different: you hold the private key yourself, and the ledger doesn't belong to any platform.
But in China, it must be made clear: virtual currency is not legal tender, trading and speculation are not protected by law, don't be fooled by get-rich-quick schemes.
It's okay to understand it, but don't go all in.
$BTC To be honest, I myself thought it was risky for this trade to survive until now; luck played a big part. But the short position on $ZEC gave the answer. Yesterday at dawn, the price was suppressed at a high level, every attempt to surge was just short of breath, volume didn't keep up. I shorted around 1,466.86, only indicating obvious resistance above, advising not to rush to buy.
Now at 1,330.80, floating profit +463.6%. This gain feels good.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection, so the rebound doesn't give back the profit. Panic comes from lack of planning, losses come from overthinking. The market is to be waited out, profits are to be held onto.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round. Move when the next signal comes.
$LAB $SOL During Singapore token2049
Currently, OKX and Binance have the most hype around their side events. In the past, going to the venue meant food and drinks.
Other exchanges that usually claim to be top three or top five are silent at this time.
It's like being very vocal when it's time to eat and drink, but getting drunk and falling asleep when it's time to pay the bill.
They scream when choked.
Once they let go, they are far ahead.$ZEC rises more aggressively than $BTC, not because the market cap is smaller.
A single bullish candle pulls it up, and short positions get liquidated again. Long-term holders might ask: what does this have to do with me?
What does this price level mean: when $BTC rises 5%, $ZEC can rise 20%. The multiple isn’t arbitrary; it’s built from short stop-losses. Every time the price moves up a notch, a batch of shorts is bought back by the system.
What will happen next: the bought-back orders push the price up another notch. The next batch of stop-losses is waiting there. The rapid rise happens because sellers get wiped out by their own stop-loss orders.
Long-term holders who don’t use leverage won’t get liquidated this round. Those getting liquidated are the ones who borrowed money and bet in the wrong direction. #DailyOrbit #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
This set of data is very interesting now because it is not "money rushing back into Crypto across the board," but funds are clearly picking what to buy — preferring to buy BTC first and unwilling to chase ETH. As of the latest completed trading day on October 2, the US spot BTC ETF has disclosed a net inflow of about $31.7 million, with a tentative net inflow of about $82.9 million over the past 5 trading days; however, it must be specially noted that BlackRock IBIT's Friday data is still pending, so the $82.9 million is currently a provisional figure and cannot be considered the final complete weekly data. Meanwhile, the US spot ETH ETF has had a net outflow of about $118 million in the past week, completely opposite to BTC. Currently, the real-time price of BTC is about $85,000, having once surged to $87,100 on October 2 before falling back, indicating that although the ETF has money flowing in again, it is not yet strong enough to directly absorb the sell orders above. Therefore, what is most worth watching next is not simply "whether the ETF has inflows," but after the ETF reopens on Monday, whether the money coming into BTC will actually push the price up: if the ETF continues to buy and BTC rises back above $86,000–$87,500, that would be a true support; if the ETF continues to buy but BTC still cannot rise, it instead indicates that someone is using institutional buying to continuously sell, which calls for caution.Woke up,
but the expected scene didn't happen.
However, $PONS has once again hit a new low, dropping to around 0.41.
This level isn't really surprising; I was just hoping it would break below 0.40.
If 0.40 can't be broken, it actually indicates that the support and holding strength at this level is relatively strong.
No worries, just keep grinding slowly.
I want to see how long it can hold at this level and when this strength will be completely worn down.
My current view remains unchanged: $PONS is still bearish.
As for how low it will eventually go, I can't say for sure now. I'll hold my position and patiently wait for the market to give the answer.
Don't exit early for a small profit; real trends often require patience.
Currently, the unrealized profit on $PONS has reached 27,000U.
$ETH $ZEC $PONS
#US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
#BTC and ETH spot ETFs see simultaneous outflows, market funds cooling down
#US-Iran tensions continue, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels from strategic reserves$ETH &. $ETH
$ETH Faces Pressure as ETF Outflows Continue
ETH’s bearish setup is still in play as spot Ethereum ETFs have recorded four straight days of net outflows, totaling around $118M for the week. FETH has also seen daily selling
$2,650 remains the key support. If outflows slow or stop, ETH could hold this level. But continued redemptions could push ETH below support and trigger further downside
For now, rebounds before $2,650 look weak—patience may be key
#NvidiaRecordHigh This set of data is really interesting, BTC and ETH's capital flows have completely diverged
But I still stick to my previous prediction: 88000 and 3000, no problem.
Looking closely at this news, BTC ended its continuous outflow, with net inflows resuming for two consecutive days on October 1st and 2nd
This indicates that institutions, after a pause, have come back to support the bottom
The support below BTC is extremely solid, the current price 85092 is steadily pushing upward, with ETFs buying, 88000 is just a matter of time.
But ETH is a bit rough, with a net outflow of 135 million over 4 consecutive days
If it were before, I would have panicked, but today I actually feel quite happy watching the market
Why? Because although ETH ETFs are bleeding, the price hasn't collapsed, instead it slightly rose 0.75% to stand above 2700! What does this mean? It means all the selling pressure has been absorbed by off-exchange funds and spot retail investors, this is a typical chip rotation
Big money dumping to shake out chips, as long as it can be held, after the shakeout the rally will be even stronger, the 3000 milestone is definitely not a dream.
So the current strategy is very simple, don't get misled by these news of capital outflows
One, ignore short-term data interference, firmly hold the spot base position
Two, never heavily position contracts, don't chase highs, wait for a pullback to the 2650 to 2700 range to continue buying more
Three, weld the defense line tight, consider stop loss only if BTC falls below 83500 or ETH falls below 2600.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Why was BTC's recent pullback "gentle"?
In the past, Bitcoin was more like a sandcastle built by retail investors, miners, and crypto funds. When the tide rose, everyone made money; when it receded, everyone rushed to exit: profit-taking surged, new funds failed to catch up, and prices easily collapsed in a chain reaction, often dropping more than 70%.
After the 2024 launch of spot ETFs, the coastline changed. ETFs, asset management institutions, corporate treasuries, and mature market makers became new dikes. They no longer treat Bitcoin as just a short-term chip but include it in long-term allocations; funds enter through ETFs and custody, no longer trapped on exchanges; during pullbacks, they tend to rebalance in batches rather than liquidate emotionally; futures, options, and basis tools also shift risk away from the spot market.
Thus, sellers have not disappeared, but the layers and depth of buyers have increased. Selling pressure no longer easily turns into a one-sided stampede, and the downward slope has flattened. This round saw a deep pullback of 40%–60% first, rather than a waterfall crash of over 70%.
In short, it's not that there is no bear market, but the market now has several buffers.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 🟠 Bitcoin's BIP-110 signaling sits at ~2.64% as block 961,632 approaches on or around August 9.
Support has climbed from below 1% but major pools like Foundry, Antpool and ViaBTC have not moved.
🗞️ Bitcoin.com News🔥Breaking｜U.S. stock market switches to 23-hour trading in December, aiming to match crypto's around-the-clock trading!
$BTC $ETH $SOL
In the past, people said the crypto world was a fringe, unconventional path.
Now Wall Street proactively changes trading hours to align with the crypto model.
After more than a decade of failing to break into Wall Street, the other side finally adjusts the rules on their own.
U.S. stock and crypto trading hours now highly overlap, fully connecting cross-market capital.
Benefits: easier capital inflow and outflow.
Drawbacks: fewer independent crypto market moves, U.S. stock volatility transmits instantly, no place to hedge.
Being copied by Wall Street itself is a form of recognition.
⚠️ Industry news sharing, not investment advice.
👉 After U.S. stocks open for 23 hours, do you think Bitcoin will follow the stock market more closely?
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 Weekend review of the Ethereum market: Ethereum $ETH overall experienced a rise followed by a pullback this week, oscillating within a range and moving in tandem with Bitcoin $BTC. At the start of the week, bulls tried to push from around 2700 to about 2750 USD but were resisted by overhead trapped positions selling pressure. The market then corrected down to 2640, where buying support prevented a deep breakdown. Overall, the price formed a large box range oscillation between 2640 and 2750 USD.
Last week, the market continued to speculate on the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations, causing ETF volatility. During the PCE and non-farm payroll data releases, prices surged then fell back, sweeping both longs and shorts, leaving neither side comfortable.
Resistance: 2740-2760. Several attempts to break this area last week were met with resistance and pullbacks, confirming significant pressure in this range.
Support: 2640-2650. The low points during last week's pullbacks were repeatedly tested with buying support, confirming many buyers willing to enter in this range.
If there is significant positive news next week, a volume breakout above 2770 will open a new upward space. Conversely, breaking below the 2640 support would indicate further downside retesting.
Going forward, closely watch Federal Reserve officials' speeches, as well as U.S. inflation, employment data, and Treasury yields, as these will further determine the direction of the crypto market. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Yesterday on $SAND, I originally wanted to play a high-leverage short-term trade. At first, I maxed out 75x leverage with a position capped at $5,000. Later, it was adjusted down to 50x, then 40x, then 30x. I was busy for over 20 hours without sleep. Before going to bed, I forgot to close the position. The settlement fee is charged hourly there. When I woke up, I saw an unrealized loss of over $8,000 and paid about $1,000–$2,000 in fees.小白进币圈的前三个月，剧本都是一样的 你可以对照一下，看看自己演到了第几幕。 第一幕，叫入场。朋友发来盈利截图，群里在讨论又涨了多少。你犹豫了一周，终于用一笔亏了也不心疼的钱开了第一单。巧的是，几乎都赚。 第二幕，叫自信。你开始觉得自己看懂了K线，看懂了庄家，甚至看懂了这个市场。于是加仓、上杠杆，止损越放越远，你说这叫格局。 第三幕，叫回吐。一根大阴线砸下来，利润没了，本金开始缩水。你不甘心，想起别人说过摊低成本，于是越跌越买。 第四幕，叫爆仓。通知弹出来的时候你反而很平静。翻回第一单，方向明明是对的，死的却是后面每一次自作聪明。 我跑了两年永续回测，看过上百种策略的生死，得出一个反常识的结论，市场收割的从来不是无知。 小白不知道自己不知道，所以仓位轻、跑得快，偶尔还能赚。真正让人亏大钱的，是赚过几笔之后，误以为自己知道了。 无知时你敬畏市场，自信时你对抗市场。而市场从不和任何人辩论，它只开单。 所以这个市场有个很残忍的规律，新手死于无知，老手死于自信。学费从不打折，也没有补考，交不起的人直接离场。 我能给小白的建议只有一句，先假设自己是错的，再用仓位给自己留活到下一集的资格。 $BTWhich chart should we focus on today?
🟠 $BTC: Watch the support around $85,000 and the breakout at $87,000.
🔵 $ETH: Pay close attention to whether $2,650 can hold and if it can retest $2,800.
🟣 $SOL: Keep an eye on the $115 support and $123 resistance.
🔥 Nonfarm payroll data came in below expectations, but BTC and ETH surged then pulled back, combined with outflows from spot ETFs, the market remains uncertain.
If you could only watch one chart today, which would you choose?$BNB Damn it! BNB's sell-off this round is really fierce, fluctuating around 788.5, clearly the big players are shaking out weak hands to dump their positions. 🔥
Looking at the chart, the buy support below is holding tight, volume has shrunk to almost nothing, even the main force throwing money at it can't trigger panic selling. This kind of grinding market really tests patience; those who can't hold on have already handed over their chips.
I'm planning to lightly buy around 788.5, with a stop loss at 775; if it breaks, I'll admit my mistake and exit. Don't go heavy, don't hold stubbornly, this level is just a game of strategy.
If you want to follow, check the lower market card for entry points, control your position size, and don't get emotional. After this shakeout, will it rally? What do you think? 💡
👇👇👇
This content is only my personal review and does not constitute investment advice. Control your position size and always use stop loss.In the next 3 to 7 days, I am bearish on $2Z. October marks the first-year unlock window originally disclosed, with potentially more sellable chips increasing, yet the price remains at the low level after the sharp drop. I am more worried that the rebound will encounter selling pressure and be pushed back down. I am more concerned about how much the supply will actually increase this time. According to the project's end-of-month circulation plan published on Upbit, there were about 3.47 billion tokens at the end of September and about 5.11 billion at the end of October, planning an increase of about 47%. This is the originally disclosed end-of-month arrangement, which may be adjusted and cannot be used to prove how many chips have flowed into exchanges or been sold today. But as restrictions are lifted, holders who originally could not sell can now choose to sell, requiring more buying support going forward. The price also does not give me confidence to bottom-fish. According to Binance UTC daily chart, on October 2, the price dropped about 18.8% from open to close; as of today at 16:05 Beijing time, 2Z/USDT is about 0.04585, still near the low of that down day. The drop is significant, but how cheap it is and how much selling pressure has been absorbed are two different things. The bullish side has a reason worth serious consideration: the unlock schedule was already public, so this round of decline may have already priced in the concerns, and it may not necessarily drop another round. I agree with this; you cannot assume it will keep falling just because of the unlock. However, the current rebound has not yet recovered the lost range, and I tend to think the selling pressure is still being digested, so short-term rebounds are easily pushed back down again. I will watch around 0.055 to 0.057 USDT, close to the low and closing price on October 1. If the price returns to this range and closes two consecutive UTC daily candles at 0.0 Weekend trading volume directly shrank by more than 60%, and with this small rebound of $BTC, I’m actually not too optimistic.
This morning when I opened OKX to check the market, my first impression was: the market suddenly became quiet.
The first chart shows that the 24-hour crypto market trading volume is about $464.7 billion, down more than 60% from the previous day. Weekend liquidity is naturally thinner, and combined with the divergence after the non-farm payroll data release.Weekend liquidity is naturally low, so even a slight selling pressure can create a dip. Shorting at this time is basically like picking up money.
On the macro side, there's no need to say much: non-farm payroll just passed, the rate hike meeting is coming at the end of the month, and US tech stocks are pulling back daily.
High-level stocks like SanDisk will keep falling endlessly once the overall environment worsens.
The passive buying from being included in the S&P 100 has long been exhausted. What is driving the price up now? Purely retail investors' faith?
For those wanting to short, you can still lightly try around 1717, set stop loss above 1800, target first 1650, and if it breaks, head down to 1550. $SNDK $ZEC ETH has rebounded, but institutions are still withdrawing. Is this rebound driven by new funds coming in, or are old shorts exiting?
This is the most important aspect of ETH to watch today.
ETH has returned to around $2680, with a slight increase over 24 hours; however, the US spot ETH ETF still saw a net outflow of about $17.3 million on October 2, totaling approximately $118 million outflow over the past five trading days.
In other words, the price is recovering, but ETF funds have not returned in sync.
More interestingly, ETH futures open interest has actually decreased by about $1 billion to $33.67 billion, with ETH liquidation volume in the past 24 hours only around $1.14 million, about 61% of which were short positions.
This indicates that the recent rebound is more likely driven by short covering and spot buying together, rather than a frenzy of leveraged long positions entering.
So the real contradiction for ETH now is:
The price wants to go up, but institutional funds have not fully returned.
On the upside, watch the $2770–$2800 range, which is currently a clear resistance zone.
On the downside, focus on around $2650; if broken, then observe $2600.
If ETF outflows begin to narrow and ETH climbs back above $2800, market attention may shift back to fund inflows.
Conversely, if the price continues to rebound but ETF outflows persist, this divergence will become increasingly concerning.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $ETH "Waiting for the minutes, also waiting for a breakthrough"
On the macro side, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will release the September meeting minutes. Besent says the rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with the global trend, and risk appetite remains influenced. In the crypto space, BTC, ETH, and SOL continue to tug at each other, making chasing orders prone to reversals.
$BTC: After testing 85650, it lost ground and only found buyers near 83785. The rebound is capped below 84000. The 15-minute short moving average is turning up, and the MACD green bars are narrowing, which can only be considered a recovery. If 83850 holds, 84000 is possible; only a volume-driven attack can reach 84300/84500. If 83500 breaks, long positions should withdraw first, and 83350 is a level to watch for support.
$ETH: At 2697, it has reclaimed the three moving averages, with MA20 at 2689, showing a more proactive trend. 2700 is a key level; breaking it targets 2720 and 2740; if 2680 holds, the pullback is still considered a strong consolidation.
$SOL: Fluctuating around 118.5, with MA20 at 118.23, 119 is the switch. If 120 doesn't break, chasing longs is prone to pullbacks; losing 117.8 leads to testing 117 again.
Currently, ETH holds a slight advantage, but whether BTC can hold above 84000 still influences the entire market. The more it grinds, the more patience is needed—wait for confirmation, don't rush the run. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Hot Coin Data Ranking｜Last 15 Minutes
$RESOLV was biased towards selling in the first two segments, with buying and selling nearly balanced in the last segment: the entire segment had 25.4% active buying, the last segment was 49.8%, and the fifteen-minute price change was -0.67%. The seller's advantage did not continue until the end of the window, and the most recent segment showed no obvious one-sided transaction advantage.There are new developments in the US-Iran negotiations, but what the market should really focus on might not be the nuclear issue, but the Strait of Hormuz.
On October 4, the Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Iran has responded to the US proposal. Iran believes the US proposal is similar to previous ones, still focusing on the nuclear issue, while Iran hopes to shift the negotiation focus to the Strait of Hormuz.
What does this mean?
If the two sides cannot resolve the issues related to the Strait of Hormuz through negotiations, energy transportation and geopolitical risk premiums may continue to exist.
The transmission path to the global market remains very clear:
Hormuz risk → crude oil transportation costs → oil prices → inflation expectations → US Treasury yields → rate cut expectations → risk assets → BTC.
So now, we cannot just watch whether the US and Iran are negotiating, but more importantly, whether the negotiations truly improve the transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz.
If the two sides make substantial progress on issues like passage through the strait and energy transportation, oil prices and risk premiums may fall back, and BTC could instead gain liquidity support.
Conversely, if negotiations continue to stall, Hormuz risks will escalate, oil prices and US Treasury yields will rise simultaneously, and BTC must guard against risk assets coming under pressure again.
My judgment is that the key short-term variable for BTC is still not a single crypto positive, but whether oil prices and US Treasury yields can continue to decline.
Next, focus on three indicators: crude oil prices, US Treasury yields, and BTC capital flows.
Negotiation news can bring emotional fluctuations, but what truly determines the sustainability of the market trend is whether energy risks can decrease.Address 0xde8..d9524 has become the address with the highest unrealized profit on ETH positions on Hyperliquid, with an unrealized profit of $16.52 million. This address has gradually established long ETH positions since mid-August, currently holding about 30,300 ETH, valued at approximately $81.96 million, with an average entry price of $2134.45 and a return rate of 407.96%. Additionally, this address has placed a limit sell order at $4000, which is 49% higher than the current coin price.$PUMP Can you still chase this wave?
I think chasing above 0.0064 is just providing liquidity exit for those unlocking.
This recent rise is not because the fundamentals suddenly improved, but because of buybacks pushing it.
Pump.fun's fee revenue in the last 24 hours is about 2.4 million USD, with about half going into PUMP buybacks;
In the past two days, about 200 million tokens are burned daily, with single-day buyback amounts around 1.2 million USD.
So the buying pressure is real.
PUMP has also been pulled from 0.0037 to near 0.006 USD, with nearly a 30% increase in the last 7 days.
But the buybacks are real, and the unlocking is real too.
In mid-October, there will be another unlocking of about 40 million USD level, market tracking data shows about 9 billion PUMP tokens.
Moreover, the team's and early investors' first cliff has passed, and now continuous releases are happening.
Now some in the market are starting to question:
Why did KOLs suddenly turn collectively bullish, just as their own allocations begin to unlock?
Daily buybacks exceed 1 million USD, but monthly new supply is at tens of millions USD level.
This is not $HYPE
HYPE has a perpetual contract fee machine behind it; PUMP is more about sentiment + buybacks + Meme cycles.
My current strategy:
Do not chase above 0.0064, holders can reduce a bit first,
Wait to return near 0.0055, then try to open long positions in batches, stop loss at 0.0048;
Whether buybacks can continue to absorb the unlocking is the real lifeline for this PUMP wave.No way, is Elon Musk's group surging again tonight?
$TSLA is rising, and $SPCX is also going up.
At first glance, it looks like the market suddenly started collectively chasing Musk, but after a detailed breakdown by babala, although these two stocks share a common background for their rise, the real catalysts are not exactly the same.
Let's start with the common environment.
In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Market concerns about the Fed continuing to raise rates in the short term have clearly cooled, and the Nasdaq rose about 1.2% on Friday.
With easing interest rate pressure, high-valuation, high-volatility growth stocks like TSLA and SPCX naturally attract more capital attention.
For TSLA, the most direct catalyst is the better-than-expected Q3 delivery data.
In Q3, total deliveries were 486,532 vehicles, with production at 464,391 vehicles. Actual deliveries significantly exceeded previous market expectations. This data at least temporarily alleviates market worries about weakening demand, so TSLA closed up 4.65% on Friday, and the OKX contract price is still around 371.
However, deliveries exceeding production also mean some growth comes from inventory digestion. What will truly determine whether the trend can continue strengthening is the October 21 earnings report, especially the automotive gross margin, discount levels, and cash flow.
Price-wise, TSLA is looking at whether it can break through and hold 374–375 in the short term; only then will it have a chance to challenge 380–387 again. If it rallies but then falls back below 360, the gains from this delivery data are likely to turn into consolidation.
The logic behind SPCX's rise leans more toward "execution payoff."
SpaceX just completed three launches within 13 hours, including NASA's crewed mission, the Transporter rideshare mission, and a U.S. reconnaissance mission executed by the Falcon Heavy rocket.
The market isn't buying just one rocket launch but its increasingly stable high-frequency launches, rocket reusability, and commercial delivery capabilities. SPCX rose directly 7.35% on Friday, closing near 158.96, and tonight the contract is still trading around 159.
The most important level for SPCX now is 160.
If it can truly hold above 160, it indicates that capital is willing to continue assigning higher valuations to launch services, Starlink, and subsequent Starship progress; if it fails to break through for a long time, a short-term pullback to 154–155 is likely, with further support around 149–150.
So the reason both are rising together tonight is not just because they belong to Musk.
Macroscopically, it's the growth stock rebound brought by weak nonfarm payrolls; on the individual stock level, TSLA relies on delivery data, and SPCX on continuous launches and execution.
The sentiment is indeed strong, but both are now near short-term resistance. babala thinks that going forward, it's not just about "whether they will keep rising," but more about whether they can hold after breaking through.Midday Market Analysis🔥
Long-term U.S. Treasury yields hit new stage highs again, with the 10-year reaching a high of 5.34%. The policy side remains relatively calm, viewing this round of rate increases as a global common trend with no intention to intervene for now.
The weaker non-farm payrolls only caused a brief dip in yields, which quickly rebounded, indicating that the market currently focuses on long-term inflation and debt supply for pricing. Short-term data is unlikely to change the overall pattern. The high interest rate environment persists, directly raising the holding cost of non-interest-bearing assets, and BTC's short-term rebound continues to be suppressed.
Short-term market pressure exists, but the long-term logic is actually strengthened: the burden of U.S. debt interest continues to expand, debt risks accumulate, and fiat currency credit keeps weakening, which benefits BTC's hard asset narrative.
Personal suggestion: remain on the sidelines and avoid chasing the rally. BTC is oscillating repeatedly between 84,000 and 87,000. Wait for interest rates to cool down or stabilize before choosing an opportunity to participate. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 [Old Leek Observation] $PUMP Movement
$PUMP Today, a wallet that had been dormant for over a year repurchased 383 million PUMP tokens.
Worth approximately $2.4 million. At the same time, a newly created wallet withdrew 189 million PUMP tokens from an exchange, worth about $1.18 million.[Exchange Update | STG Merges into ZRO: Binance Halts Spot Trading the Day After Tomorrow, Bitget Follows on the 8th]
Cross-chain project Stargate (STG) merges into LayerZero (ZRO). Media cites Binance: swap rate 1 STG = 0.08634 ZRO; at 11:00 on October 6 Beijing time, STG/USDT spot trading will be suspended and delisted; from 11:30, deposits and withdrawals of old STG will be paused; small conversions will be removed at 10:00 tomorrow. Bitget: STG/USDT will be delisted and withdrawals suspended at 10:00 on October 8; Earn tokens will be delisted at 11:00 on October 7, with the same ratio.
Important: This marks the cutoff for holding and deposits/withdrawals, not a simple negative delisting. Those still holding STG should watch each platform’s schedule; imitation sites offering "exchange services" only recognize the official website.
On the same day: Binance futures will liquidate and delist PROMPTUSDT and two other pairs at 17:00 tomorrow; Bitget PoolX locks ETH with 200,000 USDT, opening at 15:00 on October 5.
Market: Coinbase spot BTC is about $85,100 (around 16:22 Beijing time). ZRO on OKX is about 2.00 USDT.
Opinion: Check your positions and deposits/withdrawals according to the official calendar. This does not constitute investment advice.Just now, 228 million CRO from the Cronos community pool were completely burned.
Cronos Network (ChainCatcher/Odaily/Shenchao): Two tokenomics proposals have been approved by community vote; 228 million CRO from the community pool have been burned, with a total of 428 million CRO burned; 100% of the revenue generated by Cronos Ult and Cronos Launch will be used for open market buybacks of CRO and monthly burns, with hashes publicly disclosed; staking rewards will still be funded by the strategic reserve. At the time of writing, OKX CRO is about 0.068. Burn ≠ price direction, buyback scale fluctuates with revenue. Not investment advice.🔥The faster the rise, the more you need to ask who is taking over
$HYPE , $SUI , and $WLD all collectively rebounded today. The market looks hot, but the fundamentals are weak.
WLD rose nearly 8% in a single day, just a rebound from overselling not breaking out of the weak range; SUI has risen over 60% in a month with heavy trapped positions above creating huge selling pressure on the way up.
Key levels:
HYPE faces strong resistance at 91.3 and 94; SUI needs to hold above 1.20.
#DailyOrbit $BTC It seems that everyone is placing a lot of importance on whether spot ETFs are flowing in or out right now. They get excited when they see net inflows and dare to bottom-fish, but get scared when they see net outflows and immediately sell! In fact, spot ETFs don't have that much impact on the market. Sometimes the ETF shows a net outflow for the day, but it flowed out in the morning and flowed in at night, just with less inflow than outflow. Although it's a net outflow, the impact on the next day's market is positive. So looking only at the ETF's daily fund flow doesn't show the full picture. Also, a few years ago when there were no spot ETFs, $BTC still had a long bull run, right? I think spot ETF fund inflows and outflows can only be used as a reference and shouldn't be treated as a universal key!Is $ZEC still considered the leader among privacy coins? We need to distinguish between two dimensions
Many people are confused about who leads the privacy sector. The core point is: by market capitalization and the current bull market narrative, ZEC is the market leader; by native privacy capability, XMR is the technical leader.
In this bull market, ZEC's market cap has significantly surpassed XMR's, with over 60% of the privacy sector's funds concentrated in ZEC. Expectations for Grayscale ETF approval and the conclusion of the SEC investigation have made institutional funds willing to enter. Its liquidity and market momentum overwhelmingly outperform other coins in the sector, making it the core target of this privacy narrative and the undisputed leader in terms of capital.
However, its shortcoming is clear: ZEC's privacy is optional and not enabled by default; transactions are transparent unless shielded. In contrast, XMR enforces privacy on every transaction by default, offering stronger pure anonymity, and the hardcore privacy community still recognizes XMR.
From a market perspective, after a surge, it is now consolidating at a high level with volatile short-term fluctuations. The biggest risk remains regulation; privacy coins have always been a regulatory focus, and any negative policy could cause a severe pullback.
In terms of trading, if you believe in the privacy narrative, you can hold a base position to speculate, but it is absolutely not suitable to heavily buy at high levels. Make sure to set stop-loss and take-profit points. 大空军伯里（Michael Burry） 9 月 28 号和10月1号两篇报告我看了 毕竟，做交易 是为挣钱的，不是单独为了看多看多的 兼听则明，偏暗则阴
我总结一下 他再赌2027年前有一次很深很快的下跌 股票空头全平了。$MU $NBIS $CAT $SOXX $CRWV $NVDA $PLTR，换成认沽。新开了 $MET 的多年期 put，行权价在 70 一带。CoreWeave 平了，put 还没买到他觉得便宜的价格。 多头那边，63 附近加了 Sprouts，12 出头加了 QXO。 他说时间表提前了。原先基准是 2028，现在觉得未来一年就会破。理由是周末研究，加上 Ares 那篇秋季信贷。VIX 低，put 相对不贵，所以用期权加杠杆。 这个动作本身我能理解。 股票空头在这种行情里是无限亏。美光他一边空一边看着冲向 1000。换成 put，亏法至少有底。税损收割他也自己说了， 但结构和时间表，是两回事。 结构这边，我觉得他借 Ares 说的那些，大方向是对的。而且不是他一个人在讲。 五大云厂商已经签、还没起租的数据中心租约，大概 6620 亿。未来承诺接近 1 万亿。Weekend liquidity is really poor
I originally thought ZEC1300 could hold steady, but the first order was placed too hastily
Then I placed a second order, pulled the average price down, and successfully made a profit!
Because the leverage was a bit high, I exited all positions. Wishing everyone wealth 🫡 $BTC BTC this month (October), don't be blinded by the slogan "Uptober (October rally)". It now looks more like a buildup before a breakout—there's a selling wall at $85K overhead and a lifeline at $82K below. October will most likely see a tug-of-war within this range, with the real turning point depending on the Fed at the end of the month. The current price is $84,800, which has retraced somewhat from the September high. The Q3 surge of +43% was too rapid and needs to be digested.
First, let's talk about the pressure overhead. There are many sell orders around $85,000, and above that, between $84K–86.5K lies a dense trapped position area of 1.39 million BTC, which can't be broken through with just one bullish candle. Recently, ETF buying power has cooled down; on 10/2, net inflows were only $31.7 million, and on 9/30, there was even a net outflow of 1,780 BTC. More subtly, leverage signals are conflicting: retail perpetual contract funding rates have surged from 3% to 10%, showing strong long sentiment, but institutional CME futures positions are actually decreasing—this divergence often means a short-term shakeout is still needed.
But the mid-term foundation remains intact. Spot ETF cumulative net inflows have reached $58.1 billion, with total assets of $111 billion; core PCE dropped to 3.0% in August (below expectations), and the market is pricing a 74% chance of a pause in rate hikes at the October FOMC; Citibank just raised its 12-month target from $82,000 to $113,000.I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
This week's highlight: The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will successively release the minutes of their September meetings.
Federal Reserve side: The market has priced in rate cuts; the key focus of the minutes is on the "subsequent pace"—whether it will be continuous easing or a wait-and-see approach. A dovish tilt → risk assets continue to live, $BTC /$ETH catch up; a hawkish tilt → expectations pull back, crypto follows US stocks AI is no longer the undisputed "AI symbol" in the crypto space; its ceiling has been discounted.
As long as companies like Nvidia, OpenAI, and the public continue to use "AI," this impact will gradually fade;
If the giants also start calling it SI, the consensus will truly be shaken.
Currently, Musk still calls AI "AI" on X, but calls it SI when meeting Trump offline.
Next, watch the earnings reports of giants like Nvidia to see how they refer to AI.
Then there is the SI 60-day legislative periA 50x $BTC long shows +265K USDT (~110% ROI), but with liquidation at 77,697, one sharp drop could wipe out the gains fast. ⚠️
Realized P&L is still -18K USDT. A small 7x SKHY long remains a cautious test.
Leverage can boost returns, but risk management and survival come first.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge$PUMP short opened at 0.00639 after the token surged from 0.0037. 📉
Price is struggling near 0.0064, with 0.00648 acting as the key level. Break above it and I’m out; rejection could trigger a deeper pullback.
$SAND short from 0.0749 is still open.
No chasing. Just waiting for weakness. 🐻
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #BessentTreasuryYields