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Stop just focusing on the candlestick charts!!! Do you clearly understand the basic logic behind this surge in BTC?#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
This phase of Bitcoin's strong upward movement is not simply driven by speculative funds and emotional hype, but is a synchronous resonance of three fundamental factors: macro liquidity, chip structure, and supply-demand cycle.
On the macro side, the market has priced in an anticipated marginal easing of global liquidity, continuously lifting the valuation pressure on interest-free scarce assets, opening up valuation space for a trending upward market.
On the chip side, institutional spot net inflows continue, long-term holdings and lock-ups intensify, circulating chips in the market keep shrinking, selling pressure on the market is exhausted, and even a very small incremental fund can drive a level-up rally.
On the cycle side, the halving deflation logic continues to be realized, the market supply-demand pattern is long-term imbalanced, fundamentally supporting the early-stage bull market trend in this round.There are 2 hours left, remember to deposit in Okx to quickly earn 2z
$BTC $OKB $SOL can all be deposited
The earned $2z can continue to be invested
But after several tests, to maximize profits
continuing to invest can't catch up with the returns from selling directly #9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
Tonight's nonfarm payrolls are released, with the market expecting an increase of 90,000 jobs. I expect the announced figure to focus on 80,000–100,000.
Reuters survey expects 90,000, Dow Jones survey 84,000, and this week's ADP also 90,000. Compared to last month's 162,000, I lean towards a cooling in employment, but not to the point of a sharp slowdown.
However, a decline does not equal a positive signal; the market was already anticipating a decline.
To add fuel to the rebound of BTC and ETH, if expectations are met, we still need to watch wages: if hourly wages month-over-month drop to 0.2% and the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%, I would take a bullish view on this combination.
Therefore, if the employment numbers meet expectations, wages might be the key to tonight's surprise.$ETH
Suddenly realized that only China is observing the National Day holiday
So altcoins won't have any special surge
Because other stock markets are still trading normally
Liquidity is all on the chain stock sideMany people have heard the term "liquidation" and always think it's someone else's story, an extreme market accident, or just bad luck. It wasn't until the moment the message "Insufficient account funds, position forcibly closed" popped up on my screen that I realized all liquidations are never sudden crashes but the inevitable result of countless instances of luck, greed, and luck stacked together.
Before that, I always thought I was an exception. Watching the market rise and fall, listening to others' profit stories, my heart was full of restlessness and unwillingness. I thought trading relied on insight, prediction, and luck, but I completely ignored the most basic respect and restraint. At first, I just tried small positions and made a little money. That small profit was like a narcotic, completely numbing my rationality. After several consecutive profits, I became blindly confident, thinking I had figured out the market's rules and understood the logic of ups and downs.
Human greed always quietly grows in favorable conditions. After tasting sweetness, I was no longer satisfied with small plays. I started increasing my positions, trading frequently, and no longer strictly setting stop losses. Every small pullback, I held onto hope: just hold on a bit longer, the market will definitely reverse. Every time the floating loss expanded, I was unwilling to admit defeat or accept that my judgment was wrong, always thinking that as long as I could hold on, I could turn losses into profits and recover my gains. "Records of the Grand Historian · Biography of Merchants": "Without capital, one works with effort; with little, one competes with intelligence; when abundant, one competes with timing."
When I had no capital, I relied on time and labor to earn money by working. In 2017 and 2018, I was still in debt with over 50,000 yuan in online loans, but I chose not to work for others because I felt there was no future in that. I created content on self-media platforms like Jinri Toutiao, won some awards, and earned some money. Later, I built communities and sold resources, earning more money, which allowed me to pay off the online loans and have my first pot of investment capital.
Once I had some principal, I had to choose the right time to bet. For example, in the crypto world, you wait for moments like March 12, May 19, or when Bitcoin drops by half, then start buying—the more it falls, the more you buy. Such opportunities require patience and will definitely come. Many people can't wait because they don't have much money to begin with; living expenses have already consumed their capital.
When the principal is large enough, you must embrace the trends of the times. In my view, the world's trend is: those who follow prosper, those who resist perish. Crypto and AI are the two fields that most realize asset sovereignty for the people and most drive productivity and asset appreciation. All my money will only be invested in these two; I have no understanding or interest in traditional industries.Long-term bullish on $ETH, the most important thing is not to look for positive news every day, but to know what would overturn your judgment.
Being bullish on $ETH can be based on settlement demand, developer ecosystem, asset issuance, and decentralized security, but these advantages are not privileges permanently written into the price. If Layer 2 gradually reduces real dependence on the base layer, validation power continues to concentrate, and the threshold for ordinary nodes keeps rising, value capture may fall short of expectations.
Conversely, short-term price drops do not automatically overturn the long-term logic. Judgments should be updated based on verifiable conditions: whether block space is needed, whether settlement is hard to replace, whether ecosystem activity can return to the base layer, and whether governance remains open. Using only price movements to prove a point turns any analysis into chasing the market.
It is also necessary to set observation periods for positive judgments. If a direction for upgrades has not materialized for a long time, or a narrative adopted for years has not converted into real demand, it cannot be indefinitely postponed for verification. Long-termism does not eliminate time costs but allows complex systems to prove themselves within a reasonable timeframe.
True conviction is not refusing to change but clearly stating in advance under what facts you must change.