Orbit Post Sitemap
Every time it rises because of the non-farm payrolls, it falls back to the original place the next day.
Yesterday I originally planned to short Ethereum at 2740, but I got liquidated too many times. Plus, I'm stuck with SK Hynix. I had a short on SanDisk at 1800, but I sold it off at 1744 and missed the opportunity. So I lost interest and gave up. Damn SK Hynix.Yesterday it was still surging upwards, but after waking up, the market took a big pullback. BTC fell back to around $84K, and ETH returned to the $2,660 level. It feels like almost all the gains from the past few days have been wiped out. What really scared me wasn’t just how much the price dropped, but that my position almost hit the liquidation line. My hands were shaking at that moment... Fortunately, the position size wasn’t large this time, otherwise such volatility would be really hard to bear. The background for this drop is also quite clear. The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below the market’s previous expectation of about 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Moreover, the employment data for July and August was revised down by a total of 60,000 jobs. After the data was released, the market readjusted its expectations for the Fed’s future interest rate path. BTC quickly fell from above $86K, and ETH also came under pressure simultaneously. Looking back now, I’m becoming more and more certain of one thing: I might really not be suited for long-term holding. It’s not the market’s problem, but my trading personality. When I first opened the position, I was actually very clear-headed. If the direction was wrong, I cut losses; if I saw an opportunity, I went long or short; if it wasn’t right, I withdrew immediately without hesitation. But once I held the position for a few days, my mindset started to change. I began thinking: “Wait a bit longer, maybe it will still rise.” “This level should just be a normal pullback.” “It might break through in a few days.” Then slowly, trading turned into finding reasons to justify my position. I was reluctant to take profits when prices rose, and unwilling to cut losses when prices fell, even starting toNIGHT current price is around 0.05129, with moving averages still maintaining a bullish alignment; the market has not given any effective weakening signals. The liquidation chart shows an abnormal accumulation of long positions around 0.050; a pullback is not a bad thing, as cleaning out floating positions makes it easier to move up lightly. The area above 0.0527 is an overlap zone of profit-taking and short liquidations, which must be absorbed with volume, otherwise a false breakout is likely to form.
Just put the meal into the community locker, and the order reminder call came in again; a quick glance shows the order is still unfilled.
Entry range is 0.0498 to 0.0505, with a defensive stop loss at 0.0486. The first take profit target is 0.0527; after a breakout, the second take profit target is pushed to 0.0542. If 0.049 is lost and not quickly recovered, the bullish structure is broken, so abandon immediately without waiting for a rebound.
$NIGHT
#美伊升级风险再升，布油重回100美元
@OKX星球 The question "Are you ready?" is not about judgment, but about position size. If fully invested, a drop will hurt. If out of the market, a rise will be missed.
#BTC The current structure has no clear direction. After being rejected at 87K, both bulls and bears are waiting for the next signal. Instead of guessing a crash, it's better to think clearly about how much position to hold at this point.Blast's announcement today set an example for more public chains without actual use cases and scenario support, which is: it's better to shut down than to stubbornly hold on.
Looking back, the Blast team first created Blur, making some micro-innovations around points mining and liquidity, posing an effective threat to OpenSea;
Then Tieshun tried to replicate this path by building a public chain with an application mindset, heavily promoting a points system that allowed ETH and stablecoins to serve dual purposes—earning yield and collecting points. They quickly amassed 2 billion TVL, enjoying a moment of glory and being hailed by the industry as genius devs.
Later, the points kept inflating, annoying whales; mini-game dApps flooded the market but lacked sustained demand. Ultimately, Blast failed to overcome the hurdle of "Day 1 only starts after TGE."
With L2s and L1s everywhere, users and developers need a compelling "why you" reason; the rise of ecosystems and applications is not a given.$SAND SAND has experienced a strong surge, with a 24-hour increase of over 10%, showing strong short-term explosive power.
Looking at the whale sample data: 126 long positions with an average entry price of 0.06135, a profit ratio as high as 99.20%, and obvious unrealized gains; 137 short positions with an average entry price of 0.06437, the vast majority are at a loss, and the negative funding rate also indirectly reflects the heavy pressure on the shorts.
After the rapid short-term rally, many profit-taking positions have accumulated, so be cautious of the risk of a pullback caused by phased capital realization.
Offensive level: 0.0712, Defensive level: 0.0630. Tonight, watch $BTC, no need to monitor a bunch of indicators, just two numbers are enough.
First, $87,000. If it breaks through and holds here, it means the bulls have regained short-term control. Next, watch $88,500—$90,000.
Second, $84,000. If it can't hold here, the short-term structure will continue to be under pressure. Below, watch $83,000—$82,500.
Currently, $BTC is tugging back and forth around $84,500, and the real direction still needs confirmation.
So don't rush, the key position has been reached, and the market will naturally provide the answer.$BTC is most likely to get people hyped when it experiences this kind of surge and pullback.
Intraday, it once touched above $87,000, then retreated to around $84,500. Right now, you can't simply treat a single surge as a breakout; the price needs further confirmation.
On the upside, focus on $87,000; after breaking and holding above it, look towards $88,500—$90,000.
On the downside, watch $84,000; if it breaks below, the short term might continue testing $83,000—$82,500.
Before the market gives an answer, don't make decisions on its behalf.BTC market analysis: The high point at 87239 has formed a very clear short-term resistance zone.
After a rapid drop, support was found around 83800‑84000, and now it has rebounded to near 84500.
The pattern shows a failed rally → deep pullback → weak recovery, not an immediate reversal to strength, indicating a breather after a major drop.
Support level at 83800‑84000 — this was last night's low; if it holds, there is still a chance for short-term consolidation and grinding; if it breaks down effectively, the downside space will reopen.
The non-farm payroll data itself showed stronger-than-expected employment, and the market immediately reacted with a "hawkish" expectation. After the initial rally to the high of 87239 last night, it was directly pushed down, a typical case of good news being priced in plus selling pressure from the strong data.
103 coins rose, 296 fell, clearly showing a stronger losing effect, with most coins following the downtrend and weak rebounds.#BTC was rejected at 87K, so the short-term direction is indeed downward. But drawing the path down to 52K assumes there won't be any decent rebounds in the market in between.
Every round of decline has its rhythm. 70K is the first key level, near the short-term holders' cost basis. If it breaks, 58K is next. If it doesn't break, the direction might change.
Let's wait until the price gets there; no premature anchoring of the endpoint.The most critical thing for $BTC right now is not how much it has risen, but whether it can hold steady!
After surging above $87,000, the price has returned to around $84,500, indicating there is still significant contention above.
In the short term, focus on $87,000 first. If it breaks through and holds, the next targets are $88,500 and then watch $90,000.
Conversely, if $84,000 is lost, watch for a pullback to $83,000–$82,500.
Before the range breaks, less emotion and more patience will actually make it easier to grasp the rhythm.A loss of 12.3% in a year might not feel like much to outsiders.
But when converted to $2.44 million, it stings a bit.
A big holder withdrew 6,500 $ETH from the exchange a year ago at an average price of $3,040. At one point, the unrealized loss peaked at $9.55 million. They held on until today and have now moved everything into Coinbase.
To put it bluntly, they couldn’t hold on anymore.
The interesting part isn’t how much they lost, but the timing they chose.
They didn’t exit on the day of the crash; they endured for a year, saw a slight rebound, and then left.
This kind of exit hurts morale more than panic selling.
Because it shows even veteran players don’t believe in a short-term recovery.
Impact on the market? 6,500 $ETH isn’t a large amount, so it won’t create a deep pit.
But the signal isn’t good—someone is starting to give up rather than wait.
I’m cautious now, not rushing to buy.
If I were to act, I’d wait until this batch of cut-loss sellers is done.
Honestly, if I were in their shoes, I probably wouldn’t have held on until today either.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化 $ETH $BTC $ZEC Why did the non-farm payroll good news lead to a big drop in the crypto market?
Many friends are confused today. The non-farm employment data was unexpectedly weak, which theoretically should be positive for the crypto market, yet Bitcoin instead experienced a decline.
Remember this phrase: buy the rumor, sell the fact.
Before the official release of the non-farm data, funds had already started to speculate in advance on the expectation of weaker employment and a lower probability of interest rate hikes. The market had already priced in this good news.
When the data was officially announced and the shoe dropped, with no additional incremental funds pushing prices higher, the bulls who entered earlier chose to take profits and exit. The concentrated profit-taking caused the good news to turn into bad news immediately.
Also, note that a non-farm report should not be judged solely by the number of new jobs added.
If wage growth remains high, it means inflation risks have not been eliminated. Even if employment weakens, it does not mean the Federal Reserve will quickly shift to easing. The probability of a rate hike in October has decreased, but that does not mean rate cuts and liquidity easing will start immediately.
Interest rates remain high; we have only lost one negative factor, not directly entered a phase of significant liquidity easing.
Additionally, the non-farm night contract saw intense speculation. After many bulls rushed in short-term, they were easily trapped in a bull trap and stop-loss liquidation, which further amplified the decline.
Improved expectations ≠ market reversal. News is only a catalyst; do not rely solely on one piece of data to make directional judgments.
👉 Did you fall into any traps with your non-farm trades tonight?
I was the one who didn’t run. Let’s chat in the comments; I still need to learn from everyone!$BTC $AAVE Regarding where Bitcoin can go, I really don't know, just hold on. Originally, I was playing both long and short, but yesterday I closed the long position early and held the short. I'm sure 84500 is not a point to catch people on board; at least look around 82800 to gauge market sentiment. I feel this wave might not reach 76000; it will probably hit just above 80000 first because I think Bitcoin at 87000 isn't enough to make retail investors go crazy. The big players can't unload all their holdings; they have to wait for the next wave to push higher. Maybe then everyone will believe the bull market has arrived, going above 90000 and then dropping below 75000—that's the harshest scenario. Now, crashing below 75000 doesn't seem to scare the bulls away. This is just my personal feeling. Yesterday I took a short position, but I don't expect a direct sharp drop from here!!!Here's a harsh truth: most people lose money not because they chose the wrong direction, but because their position size was wrong.
If the direction is right but the position is too heavy, a normal pullback can break your mindset and make you fall before dawn;
If the direction is right but the position is too light, the profit you make won't even cover the fees.
My simple approach has two rules:
First, ask yourself if you can sleep peacefully if this money is completely lost—if not, cut the position in half first;
Second, enter in three batches, the first batch is always a test position, losing a small amount if wrong, and only adding more confidently if right.
The market never rewards the one who predicts the most accurately, but the one who survives the longest. Position size is your lifespan.$PONS has been doing T trading to reduce positions. Many losses were taken away by reducing positions, but in reality, the losses were even greater$ETH In the next three months, my judgment can be summed up in eight characters: range-bound grind, late-stage breakout. Currently at $2,668, don't expect it to surge in one go, but also don't dump your chips at this level.
First, let's talk about hard forks. On October 6, Glamsterdam will launch on the Sepolia testnet, marking the biggest upgrade since the Merge. The core is ePBS joining the consensus layer + the single-block Gas limit increasing from 60 million to 200 million, tripling capacity directly. The mainnet rollout is scheduled for Q4. This kind of upgrade is not a short-term pump for ETH but a solid answer to the long-term doubts about "whether L1 can still scale and if DeFi has room to grow."
The capital flow is also shifting. The spot ETF saw a net inflow of about $690 million during the week of September 21–25. Citi just raised its 12-month target from $2,240 to $3,028, and the median of institutional 90-day models is also around $3,100. In a bull market scenario, $4,300 is possible. But be clear: there was a net outflow from ETFs in early October, and ETH remains relatively weak compared to BTC. Money is warming up slowly, not rushing in wildly.
In terms of rhythm, October will likely continue to grind between $2,500 and $2,800. $2,800 is a strong resistance level that has held for three years; the real opportunity comes after the mainnet upgrade rollout and capital confirms its return—breaking and holding above $2,800 with volume, $3,000 will naturally follow, and then look further up to $3,500. On the downside, $2,400 is critical; if broken, the logic needs to be reconsidered.
For operations, just one sentence: buy the dip in batches, don't chase highs, and save your bullets for the late Q4.$BTC 110.3 Bitcoin Trend Analysis
The first major rise in Bitcoin is the 5th wave, expected to form a terminating wedge pattern, causing a back-and-forth battle between bulls and bears.
Currently, it is still in the 5-2 wave correction structure, with the 5-2 wave composed of a wxy structure.
The y wave decline has not ended yet; it must drop at least in 3 waves, with Bitcoin expected to fall below 82.
Pay attention to not breaking below 80100; if broken, the structure will change.
Risk Warning: This is only a market structure analysis and does not constitute any trading advice #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
US Treasury yields continue to hit new stage highs, with market expectations for long-term rates showing a clear shift. The high interest rate environment raises the global cost of holding capital, causing funds to continuously flow back from risk assets to risk-free assets like US Treasuries.
Equities and commodities are all restrained, and the valuation logic of risk assets remains under pressure. The market rebound generally lacks incremental capital support, mostly reflecting short-term capital sentiment recovery, with a large amount of trapped sell orders piled up above.
As long as the pressure on long-term US Treasury yields is not substantially relieved, it will be difficult for various risk assets to sustain an upward trend. It is currently not suitable to chase highs for long positions; every rebound to key resistance levels is an opportunity to bet on shorts. Strictly control positions, set stop losses, and guard against sudden news-driven volatility.On Friday, the US stock market acted counterintuitively.
The Nasdaq rose 1.66% to a record high, the S&P +1.02%, and the Dow +0.60%. Nonfarm payrolls were only 29,000, and the probability of a rate hike in October dropped from 64% to 24%, with the stock market buying into the expectation of a rate cut according to the script.
But the bond market did not follow suit: the 10-year US Treasury yield actually rose 5 basis points that day, returning to 5.28%.
Everyone says employment is cooling and the long end will ease, but the data says otherwise.
The real chain is: the stock market is trading on 'no rate hike,' while the bond market is trading on 'things that won’t come down whether rates hike or not' — oil prices, deficits, and sticky inflation.
Fed’s Cook just admitted on Thursday that supply shocks are more persistent than expected, implying that the long end’s pricing power is not in the rate-setting meeting room.
So don’t just focus on October 28th’s pause as a bullish trigger: with the long end holding at 5.28% and not coming down, the valuation ceiling hasn’t been lifted.The market was just "twisted" by macro data.
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 84,000-90,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The market immediately cooled, lowering the October rate hike expectation to about 14%, US Treasury yields fell back, and risk assets surged then retreated. BTC once surged near 87,200, then long positions were heavily liquidated, falling back to oscillate between 84,500-84,600; ETH surged to 2,750-2,780 then fell back to around 2,670. Citi raised the 12-month target for BTC to 113,000 and ETH to about 3,000, ETFs still had net inflows, but short-term sentiment clearly cooled.
BTC: Resistance at 86,500-87,350, support at 84,000-84,200, break below looks at 83,200-82,500. If it pulls back to 84,200-84,500 and stabilizes, light long positions can be tried with stop loss below 83,800, target 86,200-86,800; if volume breaks through 87,350, then look at 89,000. If 86,500-87,000 is resisted, light short positions can be tried with stop loss above 87,500, target 84,500-84,000.
ETH: Resistance at 2,750-2,780, support at 2,650-2,660. If it stabilizes at 2,660-2,680, light long positions can be tried with stop loss below 2,620, target 2,750-2,800; if resisted at 2,750-2,780, consider short with stop loss above 2,800, target 2,650.
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, so volatility is likely to amplify. Macro is slightly bullish, but don’t rush to go all in before key levels are broken~~~$BTC is currently lacking not volatility, but a clear breakout.
The price is oscillating around $84,500, having previously surged above $87,000 but then being pushed back down.
So don’t overcomplicate short-term thinking:
Break above $87,000, watch $88,500—$90,000;
Break below $84,000, watch $83,000—$82,500.
The space in between is where bulls and bears tug back and forth. The real opportunities usually become clearer only after a breakout is confirmed.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率逼近5%，回购难缓长期压力
After seven consecutive days of net inflows totaling about $2.6 billion, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has experienced three consecutive days of net outflows since October 2, totaling $215 million. The Ethereum spot ETF has weakened in sync, with four consecutive days of net outflows, including a single-day outflow of $48.9 million on October 3. Previously, funds rotated repeatedly between BTC and ETH, but now both are facing simultaneous redemptions as institutions are comprehensively reducing risk exposure.
Glassnode data also confirms this trend. Long-term BTC holders are loosening their positions, and short-term speculative activity has clearly declined. The weakening buying power is not an isolated phenomenon but reflects an overall contraction in market risk appetite.
This poses a substantial constraint on short-term rebounds. ETH is currently up 1.82%, but ETF funds continue to withdraw, showing a clear divergence between price and capital flow. The dense lock-up zone is between 2650 and 2720; if outflows do not stop, a successful breakout will be difficult. The short-term support is at 2480, and a break below could lead to a test of 2380.
ADP data will be released tonight, and before the data is out, large funds tend to remain cautious. If ADP misses expectations and rate cut expectations rise, ETF funds may flow back in, and ETH still has rebound momentum $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储副主席：AI建设正带来新的通胀压力
South Korea officially announced rules for transferring stocks, bonds, and funds onto the blockchain.
Its financial regulatory agency has proposed detailed rules, with tokenized securities set to launch on February 4, 2027.
Retail investors can purchase up to 100 million ₩ (approximately $70,000) per year on each approved trading platform.
The first phase covers funds, bonds, and unlisted stocks, with later plans including listed stocks and stablecoin settlements.
South Korean brokerage Hanwha has already established a tokenized securities platform supporting Avalanche.
$BTC Rally followed by a pullback. These four words describe what happened after 87200.
The fourth truth: ETF money flows in and out in "pulses," not "continuous buying."
Looking at ETF data, this is the easiest part to misinterpret.
From September 21 to 25, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted a net inflow of $2.39 billion. On October 1, the total ETF net inflow was $102.7 million, with BlackRock IBIT contributing $196 million and Grayscale Mini Trust contributing $14.59 million.
But just the day before, ETFs had a net outflow of $148.7 million, ending the previous streak of 9 consecutive days and a cumulative inflow of $3.1 billion.
First, an outflow of $149 million, then an inflow of $103 million. This is "pulsed," not "continuous."
JPMorgan estimates that so far this week, only $123 million has flowed into crypto ETPs, compared to over $3.2 billion last week. The inflow pace is sharply slowing. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 September payrolls came in below expectations, while July and August data were revised lower.$BTC spiked toward $87.3K before pulling back to around $83.9K, with $ETH weakening alongside it. Softer labor data may reduce near-term rate-hike pressure, keeping the broader bullish structure intact. Still, chasing pumps is risky. $BTC: $82K–83K support | $86K–87K resistance → $88K–90K if broken. $ETH: $2.60K–2.65K support | $2.75K–2.90K upside. Watch the reaction, not the emotion. #USNFPDataCools The most misleading term in the crypto world is 'impermanent loss'.
In short: it's not losing money, it's 'earning less'.
You deposit $ETH and $USDT into a liquidity pool, and ETH rises by 50%.
But if you just hold without moving, you earn more than by being an LP — the difference is the impermanent loss.
Why? The AMM's constant product formula automatically sells some ETH in the pool for USDT when the price rises.
It's like taking profits early, missing out on the latter part of the price increase.
Remember three points:
1. The greater the price deviation, the greater the loss.
2. If the price returns to the original point, the loss disappears automatically — hence 'impermanent'.
3. Only when the fees earned exceed the impermanent loss does being an LP truly make a profit.
In one sentence: Impermanent loss = the difference in returns between holding and being an LP.Post-Nonfarm "One-Day Trip": BTC Peaks at 87.2K Then Pulls Back, Short-Term Momentum Fizzles
Conclusion first: Yesterday's nonfarm surprise + ETF funds pushed BTC up to 87.2K, but it fell back the same day, currently at 84.6K. All who chased the high got trapped, short-term momentum has fizzled out. The strategy is simple: don't chase, defend both ends — short zone at 86.5–87.2K above, long zone at 82–83K below, no trades between 84–86.5K.
What happened (OKX data, retrieved 10-03 08:00):
- September nonfarm added 29K (expected 90K), unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, August revised down to 133K; Fed Vice Chair Jefferson stated "more time needed to observe," cooling rate hike expectations
- US spot BTC ETF net inflows for 9 consecutive days, totaling $3.1 billion, about $2.39 billion this week alone
- On October 2, BTC peaked at 87,239, with over $120 million liquidations in 24 hours
- But the rally didn't hold: US 10Y Treasury yield surged to 5.3% (highest since 2002), dollar index broke 102 (18-month high)
- Current price 84,608; 1H MA20 flattened then turned down near 85.4K, price tangled between MA20 and MA50, direction unclear
Positions:
- Above 86.5–87.2K: last defense line for shorts (Thursday's long upper shadow + 89K psychological level, space opens only above 87.5K)
- Below 82–83K: last defense line for longs (this week's box top + liquidation trigger, break means looking at 80K)
- Between 84–86.5K: frustrating middle ground, no trades
Trading plan:
- Short: Enter near 86.5K on signs of exhaustion (1H stagnation / false breakout); stop loss above 88K; targets 84K → 82K
- Long: Enter if 82–83K support holds (4H recovery, no further drop); stop loss below 81.5K; targets 86.5K → 87.2K
- No trades: Between 84–86.5K, weekend liquidity thin, chasing orders is just giving away money
- Risk control: Light positions over weekend, guard against spikes; US Treasury + dollar pressure persists; next week Singapore Token2049 industry conference, sentiment slightly bullish, exit shorts at target, no greedSEC opens the door for leveraged ETFs, with fundamentals and capital fiercely competing. After a rally, the market has fallen into a correction, and capital differentiation after the positive news is intensifying.
$BTC: The SEC approved 3x leveraged Bitcoin ETFs, fully integrating crypto assets into traditional speculative tools. This is a major step toward long-term compliance, but after the market surged and then fell back, capital chose to "buy the rumor, sell the fact." Short-term profit-taking is occurring, and BTC has entered a consolidation and digestion phase.
$ETH: The ecosystem is stirred by wallet-related noise, with Joseph Lubin urgently stepping in to calm things down. ETH currently lacks an independent breakthrough narrative and can only passively follow the broader market rhythm. Although the underlying infrastructure is advancing, new catalysts are needed to attract incremental capital.
$SOL: On-chain tokenized stock holders have surpassed 1.2 million, a historic high, with RWA fundamentals extremely solid. However, after a price surge, there was a sharp pullback, and capital is flowing out in the short term. The divergence between improving fundamentals and falling prices indicates that the short-term market values macro sentiment and profit-taking more.
After the positive news, the market has entered a shakeout period. BTC is supported by compliance expectations, ETH and others are breaking narratives, and SOL has strong fundamentals but capital is retreating. At this time, avoid blindly chasing highs; wait for capital to settle and the shakeout to end before seeking structural opportunities. After yesterday's non-farm payrolls, three coins showed three different market trends.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC — the biggest news yesterday was the US non-farm payrolls. After the data was released, market expectations for the Fed to continue raising rates in October cooled down, US Treasury yields fell, and risk assets should have directly benefited. However, the market was disappointing, rising first then starting to plunge wildly.
BTC: After the non-farm data came out yesterday, BTC once surged from around 84,000 directly to $87,238. The problem was here: it surged up but couldn't hold. It finally returned to around 85,000, and today it even dropped back to the 84,000 range. I think the most important thing for BTC now is whether it can reclaim and hold above 85,000.
ETH: Yesterday it once reached around $2,750. Compared to BTC, it was clearly still in a rising state. My key level remains 2,700; as long as 2,700 is not lost again, there is still a chance for further catch-up gains.
ZEC: While BTC and ETH were benefiting from the non-farm news, ZEC continued to pull back. On October 2, it once dropped from above $1,400 to around $1,280, a daily decline of about 4%. Moreover, it has clearly retraced over the past week.
BTC is responsible for deciding the direction, ETH confirms whether funds have spread, and ZEC tells me whether the group that made crazy profits earlier has finished exiting. Morning roundup
Early this morning, I dug into the smart money data and compared it with my own positions. Honestly, it’s quite thought-provoking.
On the $BTC side, whale traders are overwhelmingly bullish, with 2,643 longs versus 1,016 shorts, a long-to-short ratio close to 5 times. The average long position opened at 82,437, and most are still profitable now;
$HYPE is also stronger on the long side, with 805 longs and 477 shorts. Smart money longs have already taken a significant profit.
Looking at myself:
✅ $HYPE long: followed the trend, 20x leverage floating profit +2290, a return rate of 342%. When riding the trend, the market really rewards you;
❌ $BICO long: stubbornly holding against the trend, 8x leverage floating loss -1311, a return rate of -473%. Clearly on the wrong side, yet still clinging to hope and refusing to admit defeat.
Another very real lesson:
Smart money isn’t right every time, but most of the time, they know how to follow the big trend; and when we lose money, it’s often not because we don’t understand the market, but because we’re unwilling to admit we’re on the opposing side.
Profits are the reward for following the trend; losses are the price of luck.
Today, keep a steady mindset, don’t impulsively add positions, don’t blindly chase highs, and first protect the profits already in hand.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
$BTC
Nonfarm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
The nonfarm data fell far short of expectations, employment weakened, and the market's bets on a Fed rate cut intensified.
In the short term, BTC quickly surged, driven by sentiment from the news.
However, be aware that such positive news is easily used by funds to cash in profits, causing long positions to exit and the market to likely spike and then fall back.
Current trading strategy: do not chase the highs, wait for rebound resistance signals, and short on rallies.
Poor employment data ≠ the market will keep rising; positive news landing is a risk, so manage position sizes and stop losses well. A certain whale deposited 6595.2 ETH to Coinbase 3 hours ago, worth approximately $17.57 million. Among them, 6500 ETH were withdrawn from the exchange between June and August 2025 at an average price of $3040.4, during which there was an unrealized loss exceeding $9.557 million. After holding ETH for about a year, the whale apparently cut losses and exited, with an estimated loss of $2.443 million, a 12.3% asset shrinkage. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH The load-bearing beam of this skyscraper has long had penetrating cracks, but I'm still up on the tower crane, holding tight to the safety rope and not letting go!
When I first entered the site to get this batch of $SOL, the foreman said this was called short and fast, finishing one foundation layer and then pulling out. When it was down 20%, I thought the foundation was undergoing settlement testing; when it was down half, I comforted myself that this super high-rise must be poured with high-grade cement as the midline; now welded tight on the top-level scaffolding at 118.88, with my hard hat weathered, I've become the most steadfast century-long value investor in construction.
The Bollinger lower band is at 116.91, the 4-hour RSI has directly dropped to the mid-40s, the whole frame is shaking violently—this is not a simple pullback, it's clearly the basement leaking and collapsing! But not only am I not cutting losses, I want to borrow high-interest loans to bring in two more loads of rebar to add to my position. As long as the concrete in my hands doesn't set hard, it will never be considered a failed building.
- Target: $SOL 🟢
- Entry: 117.50 - 119.50
- TP1: 123.40
- TP2: 125.80
- SL: 114.20
If the foundation breaks through 114, both people and mixers will have to be buried in the pit.
#CoinMoveAlertThe third truth: Whales sold 30,000 BTC worth $2.52 billion in the past week
Now for the harshest part.
On-chain analyst Ali Charts shows that in the past week, Bitcoin whales reduced their holdings by about 30,000 BTC, valued at approximately $2.52 billion. Meanwhile, Ethereum whales increased their holdings by about 60,000 ETH against the trend.
Do you understand this signal?
Big money is "selling BTC and buying ETH."
This is not a "normal correction in a Bitcoin bull market." This is a divergence in holding structures. Whales are decreasing their exposure to BTC while increasing their exposure to ETH. Ali Charts clearly points out that this divergence reflects differing market sentiments for these assets, with ETH potentially outperforming BTC in the short term.
And during this rally from 85,000 to 87,200, whales have not stopped reducing their holdings. The rally gave them a better selling price. The "breakthrough of 87,200" you see is a more comfortable selling window for whales.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 #现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ #美债短端供给或增万亿美元 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
After nearly 9 consecutive days of net inflows totaling about $3.1 billion, Bitcoin spot ETFs turned to net outflows for two consecutive days starting September 30, totaling $173 million. Ethereum spot ETFs shifted earlier, with net outflows for three consecutive days, including a single-day outflow of $55.4 million on October 1. Previously, the market showed structural divergence between BTC and ETH, with funds rotating from ETH to BTC; now both asset types are bleeding simultaneously, with institutions reducing positions in sync.
The Coinbase report also points to the same trend. BTC's recent profit-taking has reached a yearly high, and spot demand has clearly slowed. The shift from strong to weak buying is not isolated but reflects an overall cooling of fund enthusiasm.
This creates clear short-term downward pressure. BTC is currently up 2.35%, but ETF funds are withdrawing, causing a divergence between price and capital flow. The strong resistance zone is between 85,000 and 86,000; if outflows continue, breaking through will only become harder. The short-term support is at 82,000; if broken, the next target is 81,000.
Non-farm payroll data will be released tonight, and large funds are unlikely to enter the market before the data is out. If the non-farm data is weak and rate hike expectations cool, ETF funds may flow back, and BTC still has a chance to test higher levels; if the data exceeds expectations, combined with interest rate pressure and capital outflows, the probability of a pullback will significantly increase $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔥PUMP｜Short Test
✅Long position successfully secured with a 33% gain, current price 0.00569 approaching resonance resistance
🎯Waiting for signal to short: touch 0.0057~0.00575, enter again after a 15-minute candle closes with a long upper shadow
Entry range: 0.00570~0.00575
SL: 0.00586
TP1: 0.0055 (close 50%)
TP2: 0.0053 (close 30%)
TP3: 0.0051 (remaining 20%)
🛡Risk control: leverage ≤10x, position size no more than 20% of principal, abandon plan immediately if volume breaks above 0.00586
💬Interaction: Ready to short at resistance level, or take profits and rest first?👇$ARB ARB has experienced a significant pullback, with a 3% decline in 24 hours.
Looking at the whale position data: there are 169 short whales with an average entry price of 0.1852; 175 long whales with an average entry price of 0.2147. Both sides are currently at a loss, with longs and shorts both trapped. On the news front, the Arbitrum Security Council has urgently suspended the activation of the new Stylus contract, which has also brought some emotional pressure to the market.
Offensive level: 0.2070, defensive level: 0.1890.
Currently, it is a consolidation phase after a double hit from news and technical factors, so do not rush to bottom-fish or gamble on a rebound. Dropped back down again… A major holder who built a position in $ETH a year ago seems to have cut losses, with an estimated loss of 2.443 million USD 🥹
Address 0x102…2e383 recharged 6595.2 ETH (about 17.57 million USD) 3 hours ago, of which 6500 coins were withdrawn from the exchange at an average price of $3040.4 during 2025.06-08. At one point, the unrealized loss exceeded 9.557 million USD, and the final asset value shrank by 12.3% before exiting.
Wallet address 0x102B555161062ffddaBDab1e4fE8D1E36482e383The current cash flow should be interpreted with the structure of BTC leading, ETH confirming liquidity, SOL reflecting risk appetite, and XRP indicating the rotation level into the altcoin group. When placing orders, do not buy just because the candle is rising. Prioritize waiting for BTC to hold the support zone, volume to improve, and OI to increase in a controlled manner. If BTC weakens, reduce altcoin positions first. Statements and policies from Trump may cause strong volatility, so set clear stop-losses and avoid FOMO. The goal is to react based on data, not to try to predict every move.Unlimited authorization saves one Gas fee and also authorizes future risks at once.
Many applications request users to grant unlimited token allowances to a certain contract to reduce repeated confirmations. The first use is very convenient, and subsequent transactions do not require authorization again. However, if the contract, upgrade administrator, or front-end process is compromised, attackers may use the same type of assets newly added to the wallet in the future. Authorization does not automatically disappear when the user closes the webpage, nor does it necessarily lose risk when the current balance is zero. A more prudent approach is to set allowances as needed, check and revoke unnecessary permissions after use, and confirm the authorized address. Revocation itself also requires Gas and cannot recover assets already transferred, so permission management should happen before incidents occur. When holding $ETH and using on-chain applications, the true asset boundary is not just the wallet balance but also the historical delegated call rights. Convenience once and exposure for years cannot be treated as the same cost.
Permission checks should become a regular habit, especially after contract security incidents, administrator changes, or when users no longer use a certain application. Old authorizations do not expire just because they are forgotten. Revoking authorization also requires verifying the chain and tokens to avoid only clearing interface records.#BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously turned to outflows, cooling down capital heat. Yesterday's disappointing non-farm payroll data should have been positive, but today ETFs reversed to net outflows, which precisely confirms the classic script of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." After nine consecutive days of inflows totaling about $3.1 billion, profit-taking has become extremely abundant. The release of non-farm data has instead become an excellent window to realize profits. Coinbase data shows that the scale of profit-taking has surged to a yearly high.
As spot players, this rings a warning bell for us: the day macro benefits are realized is often the short-term peak. At this time, funds chasing highs are retreating, and the selling pressure on BTC/ETH is real. If you are still in the market, now is definitely not the time to add positions; instead, consider reducing positions on rallies to lock in previous profits. If you are out of the market, please be patient and wait for this wave of "chasing funds" to fully withdraw.
In terms of operations, keep enough cash on hand and focus on the strength of price support at key levels (such as around BTC 80,000 USD) for absorption, then invest in batches. Capital outflows are not scary; after enduring this shifting period and waiting for long-term US Treasury yields to confirm a downward trend, a truly stable market will arrive.Non-farm payroll data released, with only 29,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. The data clearly weakened, but the market did not enter a one-sided rally.
$BTC fell back to 84608, and $ETH followed with fluctuations around 2675. Observing on-chain whale behavior, large funds have not significantly increased positions, mostly engaging in short-term trading.
$ZEC leads the decline, with selling pressure continuing to release, sentiment is bearish.
BTC resistance at 85300, support at 83800; ETH resistance at 2730, support at 2620; ZEC resistance at 1375, support at 1285.
The market is now in the "buy the rumor, sell the fact" phase after the news has settled; positive news realization does not equal an immediate surge.
⚠️ Traders must control their positions carefully, beware of #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 ！The second truth: The PCE boost only lasted a few hours; the real pressure on prices is the 5.34% US Treasury yield
Many people say, "PCE data was below expectations, so Bitcoin rose."
That's true, but not entirely.
The PCE data released on September 30 showed core PCE year-over-year at 3.0%, below the expected 3.3%. This indeed eased rate hike concerns, and Bitcoin did bounce from 83,000 to above 85,000.
But at the same time, the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.342% intraday, the highest since April 2002.
Do you understand this contradiction?
PCE says "inflation is falling," but US Treasury yields say "the cost of borrowing is still rising." The former is positive for risk assets, the latter negative. These two forces collide head-on at the 85,000 level.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 I reduced my position just yesterday, and today the entire crypto and stock sectors, including pons, collectively plunged. It's not that I predicted the crash, just acknowledging that having too heavy a position affects sleep, which is the biggest risk itself.
After reducing my position, I woke up this morning to check the market and felt quite calm. Yesterday I also said, watch the market no more than 2 hours a day, and act when emotions explode. I will carefully observe and look for such opportunities.👀
$AI $PONS $HYPE
Like zec, it has volume, but the level changes are not significant, belonging to the chip distribution phase.
Currently, 86.203 has rebounded multiple times, with resistance at 91.438 above, amplitude range about 5%, suitable for oscillating short-term trading $85K SELL WALL GONE! 🚀
Glassnode Report:
The big sell wall above $85,000 for BTC ended after a week!
Before: ~22,400 BTC sell orders
Now: Only ~4,050 BTC left (-82% down)
This means the resistance above is thin, price can quickly go to $88K-$90K!
Bullish breakout loading...
#BTC #Glassnode #BreakoutNon-farm payrolls good news turns bad?
$BTC $ETH
Bitcoin plunged $3400 overnight, Ethereum followed with a dive, which unlucky guy told you to chase the highs?
When the data came out, a bunch of people shouted good news, and what happened?
Pure deception
At 10 o'clock sharp, Bitcoin and Ethereum both sharply dropped, cutting losses cleanly and decisively
$ARB last night was like a battle between bulls and bears in the brain, mainly playing low-price longs and high-level shorts
The ARB short at 0.2067 flipped to long at 0.2047, but just as it made a profit, it gave it back, losing all three longs, dropping to 0.2
At 0.2006 long, took 30 points then flipped to short and kept losing
Just set a take profit at 0.2136 before sleeping, but then came a crash to 0.188
Sometimes you shouldn't set take profit too early, mainly because you need to sleep
Why did the non-farm good news cause a drop? Bitcoin first surged above 87000
But the problem was it couldn't hold above 87000, heavy selling pressure around 87000, and long leverage piled too high, once someone runs, it's over
As the old saying goes? Good news fully priced is bad news, last night was a live example
Ethereum was similar. Couldn't break 2780, then dropped back, repeatedly testing 2665
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% DATA 24h -0.7%, bears paying to short: 0.2185 is my buy-the-dip level
$DATA currently at 0.217, 24h -0.7%, daily range 0.21–0.221. The drop is gentle, so I’m outright bullish at this level.
Fear & Greed 67, BTC 84614 holding above ma7, breadth 50 vs 46, sentiment neutral.
First, the daily short-term moving averages are bullish, MA7 above MA30, this crossover has lasted 11 days with no structural damage.
Second, funding rate -0.00148, negative means shorts are crowded and paying funding fees, a short squeeze fuel is building.
Third, daily RSI 52.3 neutral, upward room not exhausted. Risks to watch: daily MACD dead cross above zero line, growing green bars, a pullback is real.
Resistance above: 0.2185 (15m SAR flipped above price)
Support below: 0.2035 (daily MA30)
Bollinger Band width 32.6%, close hugging middle band, a turning window is in these days.
Current price 0.217 is a buy-the-dip entry, cut losses if below 0.2035, take partial profits up to 0.2185. The 11-day bullish alignment means a pullback without break is a gift of chips.
Like and follow, I’ll alert you first when the market moves.
$DATA $BTC$ZEC
I wonder if anyone has noticed that while there is trading volume, the price volatility is getting smaller. Could it be that the main players are already distributing, meaning there is volume but the price changes little? The hype hasn't shifted; both ZEC and hype have gradually calmed down.