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$BTC
First, let's review yesterday's strategy: bottom-fishing around 83000, holding until taking profit in the 86500 to 87000 range, with 20x leverage. This round of cross-border National Day travel expenses for friends in the circle is all set, even the second half of the year is worry-free.
No more nonsense, let's look at today's daytime market analysis.
Honestly, if yesterday's non-farm payroll data hadn't been disappointing, it might have surged to 90000.
Today's entry: around 84000 plus or minus 400 points:
Take profit range: 85000–85300.
Stop loss: 83500
Resistance: 85600The tug-of-war at the $85,000 mark, are you on board?
BTC morning quote at $84,900, once again hovering around the $85,000 threshold. This feeling of "just missing the mark" is more frustrating than a crash. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped from 72 yesterday to 67, still in the greed zone, but market sentiment is clearly cooling down.
Yesterday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $102.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $195.6 million alone, but Fidelity's FBTC and Grayscale's GBTC had outflows of $60.7 million and $31.4 million respectively. The concentration of funds is too high, relying on BlackRock alone to support the market, which is not a sign of a full recovery.
On-chain data: The amount of stablecoins whales transferred to Binance within 30 days increased from $21.7 billion to $30.5 billion. Large funds are clearly "loading up," while retail wallets remain almost untouched. The 30-day change rate for small investors dropped directly from 17% to -3.5%. Whales are buying, retail investors are lying flat; historically, this kind of divergence often signals an upcoming market shift.
US employment data was weak, which should have been positive for risk assets, but Iran's military actions in the Strait of Hormuz quickly reversed market sentiment. BTC was pushed back from the $87,000 high, with a single-day market cap fluctuation as high as $50 billion.
Personal view: $85,000 is the current dividing line between bulls and bears. Whether ETF funds can continue to flow in and whether trading volume can keep up is much more useful to watch than just the candlesticks. Don't get carried away by the "Uptober" sentiment; managing your position size is more important than anything. $BTC $ETH $XAUT BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously turning to outflows. What the market truly needs to be wary of is not the daily capital fluctuations, but the marginal enthusiasm of institutional funds cooling down.
Spot ETFs have been a very important source of incremental funds in this round of crypto market rally. When BTC and ETH ETFs both show net outflows, it means that funds entering the crypto market through traditional financial channels have temporarily slowed down, and short-term risk appetite will also be somewhat suppressed.
However, ETF outflows themselves do not immediately mean the market will turn bearish. The more critical factor is how long the outflows last and how prices react to the capital changes.
If the outflows are only single-day or short-term, and BTC prices can still maintain high-level oscillation, it indicates that internal market support still exists, and some funds may just be rebalancing or taking profits.
What really requires caution is continuous ETF outflows, BTC breaking key support levels, ETH weakening further relative to BTC, while trading volume and contract leverage do not show obvious declines. This combination suggests that fund withdrawals and leverage clearing may resonate, significantly amplifying market volatility.
From the perspective of capital transmission, the current sequence worth paying attention to is: changes in ETF net inflows → US Treasury yields and the US dollar → BTC spot support → ETH/BTC strength → altcoin risk appetite.
If ETFs resume net inflows, and BTC stops falling and breaks out with volume, it indicates institutional funds are flowing back, and market sentiment has a chance to heat up again; if ETFs continue to outflow, BTC rebounds with low volume, and ETH continues to underperform BTC, then it is necessary to reduce chasing positions Oil tanker in Hormuz attacked again, $ETH only rises 0.33% after the event
The Middle East is heating up again, $ETH only rose 0.33% — I am still bullish, laying out the logic.
The oil tanker was hit by a projectile on the port side in the Strait of Hormuz, crew safe. According to the script, the Middle East heats up, oil prices rise, inflation expectations increase, risk assets get hit, but the market only moved from 2668.9 to 2677.65 (+0.33%), 24h down only -1.5%, the lower boundary at 2650 remains intact.
First, the daily RSI is 58.8, slightly strong but not overbought.
Second, 30d is still +6.79%, fear and greed index at 67, sentiment not collapsed.
Third, OI compared to archive is -0.01%, leverage unchanged, no crowded longs.
BTC 84605.32 still stands above the daily ma7 at 84180.38.
Resistance above: 2708 (1h SAR has flipped above)
Support below: 2581 (daily MA30, if broken I admit I'm wrong)
In an offensive phase but breadth only 33/61, light positions and stagger entries to avoid getting headstrong. Above 2650 I am bullish to 2708: enter directly at current price 2677.88, stop loss if it breaks 2581, hold if it doesn't break to reach 2708.
Like and follow, I will alert you immediately if it breaks.
$ETH $BTC#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The US September nonfarm payroll data is really outrageous, with an increase of only 29,000, far below market expectations. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%. The data for the previous two months was revised downward, wage growth slowed, and the labor market clearly cooled down.
Normally, with such data, the market would bet on a rate cut, and BTC surged to 87238. However, the market was very dramatic; after the spike, it couldn't hold, and within a few hours, all the gains were lost, eventually closing lower.
Many people's first reaction was positive, but the market did not continue to buy in.
The poor data is a fact, but some have started to worry about the risk of economic weakening and rising risk aversion, leading to the phenomenon of "good news being immediately priced in."
Next, the focus will be on the Federal Reserve's stance. With such disappointing data, the signals from future monetary policy will be especially critical. Market volatility is expected to be significant, so it's better to remain cautious with positions. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
In September, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of 85,000; the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Employment data for the previous two months were also significantly revised downward, and wage growth noticeably slowed. Looking at this data alone, the labor market cooling signals are fully evident, and the market instinctively bets on a rising expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The market's first reaction was also very direct: BTC surged sharply in the short term, once touching 87,238. But dramatically, the bullish momentum did not last; within just a few hours, all gains were given back, and the price actually closed lower.
Many people wonder: with such poor data, why didn't the coin continue to rally?
The core logic has two layers:
1. The dual nature of poor data: rapid weakening employment on one hand means the Fed has room to cut rates; on the other hand, the market begins to price in the "risk of a hard economic landing." Once recession expectations outweigh the benefits of rate cuts, risk assets will be sold off simultaneously.
2. Profit-taking on good news realization: before the nonfarm data release, the market had already positioned for weaker employment. The news release is a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" scenario, with short-term bulls exiting on the rally, and selling pressure pushing the price back to its original level.
This BTC surge and retreat is a very typical test of macro data. The short-term market is no longer simply "bad data = coin rise"; funds are starting to weigh the forces of recession and rate cuts. Going forward, the focus will be on Federal Reserve officials' speeches to see if policy tone shifts because of this nonfarm report.The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000.
After the data release, #BTC briefly surged to 87,250, then fell back to around 84,600.
This round of gains was mainly driven by spot trading, with the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts only at 5.4%, indicating low leverage participation.Last night's market rally was driven by the non-farm payroll data. The US added only 29,000 jobs in September, far below the expected 90,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.2%. The Fed's October rate hike bets plummeted to around 15%. The Nasdaq followed suit, hitting a new all-time high, BTC surged to 87,238, then pulled back by over 2,600, now resting around 84,663. 24-hour change +1.35%, low at 83,884. Interestingly, the funding rates turned negative for BTC, meaning longs are unwilling to pay interest, indicating no one dares to catch the knife on this rally. SOL's funding rate also turned negative, while ETH's is slightly positive. Today, we are watching two things: whether BTC can reclaim 85,000 and hold it before attempting 87,000; and on the macro side, the October CPI and December rate hike bets are the real behind-the-scenes factors. By the way, based on my previous sample statistics when funding rates turned negative, it tends to indicate weak consolidation rather than a bottoming signal. Do you think 85,000 can hold today? The ETH one-hour structure is already very clear: moving averages are in a bearish alignment, MACD has a bearish crossover downward, and the price is repeatedly grinding along the lower edge of the descending trendline. The current price around 2679 shows no decent rebound; active buying cannot withstand the selling pressure.
I waited for the red light for a few seconds to pull up the liquidation chart for a quick glance, putting the phone order prompt aside first. There is a large accumulation of short liquidation chips between 2700 and 2760 on the upper side of the market, but this is not a reason to go long because the active buying volume is too weak and the selling pressure below is even heavier. The market now looks more like it will first sweep liquidity downward, forcing shorts to cover at low levels or continue to probe lower for real support.
Therefore, only short on rebounds, do not chase shorts. Entry range is set between 2688 and 2715 for staggered shorts, with a stop loss at 2762, first take profit at 2645, and second take profit at 2608. If the one-hour candle closes back above 2760 with volume, the bearish structure is broken, exit immediately.
$ETH
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
@OKX星球 Bitcoin is now around 85,000-86,000. That voice in your head comes again: "It dropped from 87,200 to 85,000, is it time to buy the dip?"
First, answer four questions:
1. Whales sold 30,000 BTC in the past week. Have they finished unloading? A $2.52 billion reduction can't be done in one day. Pumping the price up is their best chance to sell. Standing at 85,000, you’re betting they won’t keep selling. But on-chain data tells you they are.
2. The inflow speed of ETFs is slowing down. Last week it was 3.2 billion, this week only 123 million. If ETF inflows continue to slow, who will absorb the whales’ selling pressure?
3. US Treasury yields fluctuate between 5.18% and 5.34%. As long as oil prices stay above $100, inflation pressure remains. The "pullback" in yields is only temporary, not a trend. Bitcoin’s rebound depends precisely on this window of yield pullback.
4. Which will come first, 88,442 or 80,616? On the upside, 1.242 billion shorts are waiting to be liquidated. On the downside, 200,700 longs are waiting to be liquidated. The liquidation intensity downward is 61% higher than upward. Shorts have already been liquidated once, so the fuel is decreasing. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 📊 October 2nd
The first wave of manual chasing orders has been completed, currently holding 1/8 of the total planned position.
There are 2 more waves of manual chasing orders left. The next 2 waves forecast:
If the market is equal to or better than now, the second wave of chasing orders may be executed from Sunday to Monday, doubling the position.
After the second wave of manual chasing orders is completed, if the market is stronger (equal to or better than a steady upward trend) for about a week, the third wave of manual chasing orders will be executed, doubling the position again.
At present, I think the recent adjustment shows a relatively strong performance in the crypto market.
Previously mentioned $BTC 90000-93650 range might not even be able to stop it.
The market is ever-changing. Specifically, follow the actual movement at that time.
Reminder: I still hold that the extreme low could possibly return to around 71600.
If you want to go long during this adjustment period or at any time later, make sure your liquidation price is definitely below 71600.
Note, I am not saying to bottom fish at 71600, but to prevent it from spiking down to 71600 and liquidating your position.
Don't open orders for this reason, but be prepared for it!
$ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Don't blindly believe in the October rally curse. When incremental funds exit, no historical pattern works! Many have heard the so-called October rally theory and naturally expect the crypto market to surge in this month. But never blindly trust such historical curses. Past gains don't guarantee a repeat this year. Ultimately, market rallies depend on real incremental capital inflows, not on the month or legends. Look at the current data: $BTC and $ETH ETFs have consecutively turned into outflows, and even the recently booming $ZEC ETF has seen large redemptions. Institutions are cashing out at highs, and incremental funds are slowly withdrawing. When funds are unwilling to rush in, relying on old stories and history alone can't sustain a prolonged bull market. History can only serve as a reference, not as a basis for trading decisions. If you stubbornly hold the idea that "October must rise" and heavily invest, you risk being harshly slapped by reality. Of course, this doesn't mean October will definitely crash; just don't comfort yourself with old patterns anymore. Focus on ETF fund flows and key price levels. When funds return, the market gains confidence; if funds keep flowing out, no matter how appealing the historical tales are, they won't work. Be even more cautious with altcoins; without incremental support, their pullbacks can be very rapid. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 The employment report was far below expectations, causing rate hike bets to be quickly withdrawn. US Treasury yields plunged, the dollar weakened, Bitcoin surged directly to 86565, and Ethereum to 2745. The stock market also benefited, with the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow all rising, the VIX fear index falling back to 15.55, and risk appetite increasing. However, on the other hand, oil and copper prices are telling a story of cooling demand: on the same trading day, stocks and bonds are trading as if easing is expected, while commodities are trading as if a recession is coming. Crypto is currently aligned with stocks and bonds, essentially reflecting a repricing of liquidity expectations rather than a real improvement in demand. Participation in the rebound is possible, but it should be clear that the gains come from easing; once the divergence between commodities and stocks/bonds converges, those chasing highs will be the first to exit. $BTC $ETHThe nonfarm payrolls released showed only 29,000 jobs added, far below the market expectation of 90,000. The August jobs figure was also revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, indicating that there will likely be no rate hike in the near term. $BTC also dipped below 87,000 and then returned to the 84,000 support level.
Personal view: The upward channel has not been broken yet. If 84,000 holds on Monday, the outlook remains bullish After breaking below the rainbow chart in 2022, #BTC stayed in the bottom area for quite a long time, only showing a clear rebound at the beginning of 2023.
The rebound in 2020 came faster.
"Breaking below" is a signal of a deep value area, not an exact bottom signal.
It tells you that the price has entered a historical sell-off range but does not guarantee that a rebound will come quickly.$XPL has dropped to the current level, and the most common misconception is: the more it falls, the cheaper it must be.
I first look at the position, not guessing the direction. The current price is 0.09361, about 4.68% away from the 1-hour support at 0.08923, and about 10.63% away from the resistance at 0.10356. Looking at the distances on both sides together is closer to the real risk than just focusing on a single rising or falling candlestick.
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are weak, with RSI at 26 and 54 respectively. Oversold conditions can explain the demand for a rebound but cannot alone prove a trend reversal; price first stopping making new lows is more convincing than any statement like "it can't fall further."
There are only two conditions that would make me change my judgment. My observation line is very clear: only if it stands back above and holds 0.10356 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 0.08923, then attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.08923. If the upper side continues to be pressured, the 4-hour resistance at 0.10356 is temporarily just a distant reference, not a preset target.
This is not looking for reasons after the fact: in the next round, I will continue to verify 0.10356 and 0.08923, recording when conditions are met and reviewing when they fail.
Will you treat oversold as a rebound signal, or wait to acknowledge a turning point only after the structure stops falling?
The market is volatile; the above is only a market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle Bull.The fifth truth: The long-short liquidation map tells you that going down is much easier than going up
Look at the liquidation data, this is the most brutal part.
Coinglass's liquidation map shows: if BTC falls below 80,616 USD, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach 2.007 billion USD. If BTC breaks above 88,442 USD, the cumulative short liquidation intensity will be 1.242 billion USD.
The bulls' death line (80,616) is closer to the current price than the bears' trigger point (88,442).
What does this mean?
To push up, it requires eating through 1.242 billion USD of short liquidations to reach 88,442. To push down, it only needs to push the price below 80,616, and 2 billion USD of longs will be automatically liquidated.
In the logic of the leveraged market, hunters always choose the direction with the lower cost. This time, the cost of going down is nearly 40% lower than going up.
More importantly: after this 120 million USD short liquidation, the fuel for shorts is decreasing. From 85,000 to 87,200, shorts have already been cleared once. To rise further to 88,442, what is needed is real spot buying, not shorts being forced to buy back. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 This time, Aave is not simply establishing a foundation, but is "laying the groundwork" for the protocol's intellectual property and long-term governance structure.
On October 3rd, Aave Labs submitted the ARFC proposal to establish a memberless Aave Foundation in the Cayman Islands, primarily responsible for holding, protecting, and licensing the Aave trademark, main domain names, protocol code, and related intellectual property.
The first phase is not about transferring all these assets directly, but only completing the foundation registration and appointing independent directors, supervisors, and a secretary. Subsequent transfers involving trademarks, domains, and code IP will require separate DAO governance reviews.
What is most noteworthy here is that Aave clearly emphasizes that the "foundation is independent of the DAO service system." Aave Labs and DAO service providers cannot serve as or appoint directors or supervisors, and the foundation will not take over the protocol's core governance rights. Matters such as token listing, parameter adjustments, budget, and service provider selection will still be decided by the DAO.
In other words, this adjustment is more like a "separation of asset and governance layers."
Why do this?
My understanding is that as the Aave protocol grows larger, relying on a single entity to manage core IP such as trademarks, domains, and code long-term poses certain risks in legal, compliance, intellectual property, and governance continuity aspects. Establishing a relatively independent legal entity can provide a clearer holder and protector for these core assets.
Moreover, no ongoing budget has been set this time, DAO Ethereum box reference, 2600-2800.
You can start gradually going long at 2620-2660, and gradually short at 2740-2780. Be cautious with light positions, prioritize stability. Today heading to Sanya for vacation, all orders are pending to be filled, you can refer to the recent operation records, fully transparent throughout.A regulatory clearance: The U.S. SEC has approved 3x leveraged Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas ETPs under the Securities Act of 1933. The related documents show that the approval is for the rule change application to list and trade these six products on the Cboe BZX Exchange, which is a significant positive for the issuer Volatility Shares.
The real weight of this lies in the details of "3x leverage" and "crude oil, natural gas."
Crypto assets obtaining 3x leveraged products means they are increasingly seen by regulators as "normal tradable assets"—because leveraged ETPs are a product category that requires serious risk assessment, and approval itself is a form of "categorical recognition."
And the fact that crude oil, natural gas, and crypto are included in the same batch of approvals feels like a meaningful parallel: on this regulatory path, BTC is now standing alongside traditional commodities in the same tier.
But for ordinary investors, a risk reminder must be attached here:
"3x leverage" means that for every 1% move in the underlying, the product’s net asset value fluctuates about 3%; moreover, leveraged products suffer from "daily rebalancing" losses—holding long term will erode value due to volatility itself.
Therefore, these products are tools for short-term traders, not "Bitcoin substitutes for long-term allocation."
Compliance is now open, and the tools are more usable, but the sharper the tool, the higher the cost of misuse.$ZEC ZEC's recent heat is starting to cool down, with its spot ETF seeing large withdrawals, a single-day net outflow of $26.93 million.
Previously, the privacy coin rally was largely driven by ETF funds entering the market, with institutions pouring real money in, forcibly pushing ZEC's price up. Now, with large-scale redemptions occurring, it means some institutions have made profits and chosen to cash out and exit.
It should be noted that although the single-day outflow is significant, the historical cumulative net inflow is still $213 million, so not all funds have fled, just short-term capital realizing profits.
This round of privacy coin activity was essentially speculative hype; the rise was fierce, and the retreat is equally rapid. Now that ETF funds are starting to flow out, the driving force behind this rally is weakening.
Considering the current overall environment, $BTC and $ETH ETFs are also experiencing simultaneous outflows, reducing the overall incremental market funds. Under such circumstances, speculative altcoins tend to experience sharper corrections than the major coins.
Don't assume that after a surge, the rally will continue indefinitely. The inflow and outflow of ETF funds is a very direct signal to observe institutional sentiment. When playing altcoins, stay clear-headed; speculative rallies come fast and exit mercilessly.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Here’s a cleaner, more natural version:
Writing
$SNDK
SanDisk, the king of storage. 👑
The recent performance hasn’t been particularly strong, but good things take time.
On the daily chart, 1878 has acted as a clear resistance level multiple times, while 1693 has repeatedly provided support and triggered rebounds. That creates a roughly 10% range between the key levels, making the current structure worth watching.
#DailyOrbit The truly valuable assets to hold long-term are those things that, ten years from now, people who are richer, smarter, and more knowledgeable than you will still want to buy from you. $BTC Here’s a cleaner, sharper version for posting:
ZEC Short Plan
$ZEC Short at 1387 — Bulls Are Celebrating, I’m Waiting for the Wind at the Summit.
Family, I’m shorting ZEC at 1387. This is not a call—just my personal trading plan.
Bearish thesis:
Overheated sentiment: The privacy narrative is already heavily priced in. Funding has turned positive, bulls are crowded, and FOMO is pushing more buyers in.
#DailyOrbit Ethereum is currently around $2700, having rebounded about 57% in Q3, making it one of the strongest performers among major crypto assets. The subsequent trend can be observed as "short to mid-term looking at range breakout, year-end focusing on upgrades and ETF funds."
Short term: First, see if it can hold steady between $2700–$2807
Key resistance above: Around $2807. If it breaks out with volume, the next target will be $3000–$3200.
Short-term pressure zone: The 200-day moving average near $2140 has recently been broken, indicating strengthening short-term momentum.
Support zone below: $2560–$2600 is the first support; if broken, then look at $2400–$2450.
Mid term: Mainstream expectations by year-end focus on $3000–$4200
Three things to watch going forward:
Glamsterdam upgrade rollout pace
This is an important technical catalyst affecting ETH valuation in 2026, but there have been prior expectations of delays; need to see if it truly advances in Q4.
Spot ETH ETF fund flows
If weekly net inflows resume and continue, price is more likely to break upward; if net outflows occur again, the rebound may be limited.
Macro liquidity
A weaker dollar and cooling rate hike expectations are generally positive for crypto assets; if inflation or rate expectations rebound, ETH may come under pressure again."Uptober officially started" was already said on October 1st.
At that time, #BTC was around 86,357, and traders on Kalshi priced the probability of reaching 90,000 this month at 56%, and about 72% for reaching 87,500.
But whether the breakout holds depends on what level it can maintain.
Currently, the price is fluctuating between 83,000 and 85,000, and the resistance at 87,000 was rejected once at the end of September.It has been said many times: holding onto long positions is wrong, and holding onto short positions is even more wrong. With this level of intelligence, if you can make money in this market, it would truly be a miracle.
Why is "holding onto a position right or wrong" wrong? Because the essence of holding a position is risking unlimited losses for extremely limited profits.
First, holding onto a position is a form of self-deception driven by wishful thinking. If you stubbornly refuse to cut losses, even if the market kindly turns in your favor this time and you even make a small profit, so what? This only injects poison into your brain. It reinforces your bad habit of "not setting stop losses and ignoring discipline," making you mistakenly believe that "as long as you hold on, the market will always turn back." This is a toxic reward. The next time, or the time after that, if you encounter a one-sided extreme market move, you will lose both principal and profit.
Second, the core of trading is the risk-reward ratio. People who hold positions tend to "take small profits quickly but stubbornly hold onto losses." You might recover once and make a few dozen dollars, but for this one lucky break, you are risking liquidation and total loss. Holding against the trend is even more foolish, as it risks unlimited upside losses for at most 100% downside gain—this is an extremely stupid losing trade.
The scariest thing in trading is handing over control to the market. Holding onto a position means you give up the only lifeline—stop loss—and your account’s fate depends entirely on the whims of market manipulators. True trading experts admit mistakes decisively and exit to seek the next opportunity; when right, they hold firmly to let profits run.
Stubbornly holding on is a slow form of suicide. It will lead you further down the wrong path until there is no return. If you don’t quit this bad habit of holding onto positions, you will never become a force to be reckoned with. Near 85K is not a crash; it's entering a phase of game theory. You're also watching that 85,000 line, wondering if it will hold or not? This drop from 87K, I prefer to define it as consolidation plus shakeout, not the end of the trend. The price is now hovering around 85,500; what really matters is not how much it has fallen, but whether there is continuous selling pressure following the drop. The derivatives market is the key here. If open interest keeps rising during the decline and funding rates remain high, it means the bulls haven't left and are still holding on. This structure is most vulnerable to another quick dip that clears out leverage before any rebound can be discussed. Conversely, if open interest gradually decreases and funding rates return to neutral, it looks more like a rotation rather than a collapse. Cross-market linkage also needs to be considered. When the US dollar strengthens and US Treasury yields rise, risk appetite is suppressed. BTC usually reacts first, ETH follows down, and altcoins fall later and harder. So whether 85,000 can hold depends not only on the crypto market itself but also on whether external capital is willing to buy at this level. The bullish scenario is: repeated tests near 85,000 without breaking, selling pressure easing wave by wave, and both open interest and funding rates cooling down. Then there is a chance to retest 87,000 or even turn this pullback into a healthy shakeout. The risk is: once 84,000 is effectively broken, the short-term structure weakens, the squeeze may start from the bulls, and altcoins' declines are usually amplified, with the rhythm shifting from game theory to defense. At this time, the worst thing is to fight the price itself with the thought "it will rise back." So the most important thing now is not to predict but to observe 80u challenge to 1000u
Day thirty-two
Seeing today's unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data unexpectedly weak, added to Micron at a high position. Sigh, Toshiba is such a dog, one expansion in the West directly crashed the storage sector. The account is back to 444u. The expansion invested 400 million USD, several storage giants lost nearly 100 billion in market value. Buy the dip, hold long termFocusing only on the SOL price might cause you to miss the real turning point. After the FTX crash, SOL once dropped 94%, and the common narrative was that developers were leaving, but it took the opposite path: during the same period, the price fell another 95%, yet GitHub repositories and daily unique programs increased 2.5 times year-over-year, active development teams grew over 1000% year-over-year, and API calls increased by more than 500%. Even when the price was low, people were still coding, debugging APIs, and launching applications. When sentiment improved, on-chain products absorbed the capital. Later, pump.fun lowered the issuance threshold, and Meme brought new volume, with SOL returning to $294.85 in January 2025. Of course, active development does not necessarily mean the price will rise; the key is whether the data can be converted into real usage. $SOLAn American state bank with over a hundred years of operation has just chosen Solana. Meanwhile, Ethereum is quietly restructuring its underlying layer.
Let's first look at Solana.
The only state bank in North Dakota—Bank of North Dakota, established in 1919 and operating for over a century—has launched Roughrider Coin on Solana. This is not a pilot; it is a formal deployment connecting more than 90 financial institutions through the Fiserv platform.
A century-old bank did not choose Held on for a year, even the whales couldn't bear the losses and cut their losses.
From June to August last year, someone bought 6,500 ETH at $3,040. Then, ETH kept falling.
At the worst point, they had an unrealized loss exceeding $9.55 million. They held on and didn't sell.
A year later, ETH returned to around $2,664. They chose to deposit into Coinbase and sell everything. They lost $2.443 million, a 12.3% asset shrinkage.
They endured a $9.5 million unrealized loss but finally cut losses at $2.44 million.
It’s not that they didn’t want to wait for a break-even, but they had waited enough. Over a year, ETH dropped from 3,000 to below 2,000, then rebounded to 2,700, never reaching their cost basis. Every rebound gave hope, then it fell back again.
When they bought at 3,040, the market was probably shouting "ETH will hit 4,000." They believed it and bought. A year later, they didn’t see 4,000 but hit their stop-loss.
This is the most realistic retail investor story. Buying at the peak, enduring all the pain, and finally giving up just short of breaking even.
Can you endure a $9.5 million unrealized loss? I can't.
The above is compiled from on-chain data and does not constitute any trading advice.
$ETH $BTC Last night I said: Data saved the market, but funds did not.
A night has passed, and the market gave me half a slap and half an answer.
Let's start with the slap in the face. BTC retreated from 86,609 to 84,593.6, down 0.85%, basically giving back the gains from the non-farm payroll surge. ETH at 2,676.2, down 0.77%. SOL at 119.06, down 0.74%. The worst was ZEC, at 1,320.7, down 3.76%—I said yesterday it was lagging, and today it directly caught down. The total market cap of the entire network is 2.89 trillion, shrinking by 0.42%.
Regarding "not funds entering the market," I admit this with the price drop.
But there is a change I have to honestly mention.
The daily net value of BTC ETFs turned positive. Yesterday it was a net outflow of 9.8 million USD, today it became a net inflow of 2.4 million. Don't be fooled by just 2.4 million; this means the direction has changed. Looking at the longer term, the entire month of September saw Bitcoin ETFs net inflows of 2.65 billion USD, the second highest since October 2025. This institutional line has not broken.
What’s more worth pondering is the trading volume. The 24-hour volume expanded to 121 billion, up 23.92%. Price is falling, volume is surging.
This is called a volume-increasing decline. But I don't think it's panic selling.
Look at the other side: the discussion heat on the planet is only 3,150, down 36.37% in one day. Sentiment is retreating, retail investors are cooling off. Yet ETFs are buying.
This looks more like emotional traders are cutting losses while institutions are accumulating. It's turnover, not escape.
The macro needle is also very critical. September non-farm payrolls were only 29,000, expected 90,000; July turned from positive to negative, August was revised down from 162,000 to 133,000, a combined revision down of about 60,000 over two months. The probability of no change in October has soared to 85%. The 2-year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.71%, the 10-year returned to 5.16%. The short end finally breathed a sigh of relief.
But don’t celebrate too early. Before the October 28th rate decision, only CPI remains as a key data point. If inflation again exceeds expectations, last night’s script can be torn up overnight. This is the thunder hanging overhead.
Here’s my judgment:
BTC 84,600 is the short-term watershed. Holding above 83,858 (today’s low) counts as a shakeout, with the first target above at 86,000; breaking below means good news is exhausted, next target directly at 82,000.
ETH follows BTC, no independence. SOL is elastic and rebounds quickly but is most sentiment-driven. ZEC’s privacy sector funds are withdrawing; a 3.76% drop is not a bargain but a signal, don’t rush to buy.
In one sentence: Price is retreating, funds are entering. This is the most counterintuitive time and also the most opportunity-prone.
So here’s a sharp question for you: ETF turning positive, price falling, which do you believe? Are institutions quietly accumulating, or are retail investors carrying institutions? Share your judgment and position in the comments.
#BitcoinETF #NonFarmSurprise #RateHikeExpectationsCooling $BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC
Disclaimer: The above is a personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; please manage your risks accordingly.#BTC's bottom is sometimes really simple.
The price hits a new low, but the RSI doesn't follow with a new low; instead, it rises.
This divergence indicates that the downward momentum is weakening and the selling pressure is exhausting.
You don't need ten indicators stacked up; just looking at the relationship between price and RSI can reveal this signal.
Divergence is an early signal, not a confirmation signal.
What you really need to wait for is the price to start reclaiming lost ground, such as rising back above the short-term moving average or breaking through the previous rebound high.Conclusion first: The metaverse sector collectively ignited today, with SAND up 47% in 24h, and ENJ is an overlooked follower, up 15% in 24h.
Data laid out:
SAND 0.044→0.0655, volume $380 million
MANA 0.089→0.0975
GALA 0.0023→0.0026
ENJ 0.030→0.0346
ENJ's 4H structure is very clean: last week it ranged 0.029-0.031 for the whole week, with daily average volume under 2 million tokens. Yesterday suddenly a 4H candle shot up to 0.0405, volume surged to 32 million tokens, 15 times the previous candles. It pulled back to close at 0.0328, then three candles consolidated with shrinking volume between 0.032-0.036, no further drop.
Currently at 0.0346, 0.036 is the immediate resistance. If broken, it will revisit the upper shadow at 0.040. SAND's 47% surge is fierce; how long the follower coins can keep up depends on the next 48 hours.
Do you think ENJ is purely following SAND, or can it really test 0.04 on its own? $ENJ$ZEC BOUNCES, BUT THE STRUCTURE STILL NEEDS PROOF.
Watching ZEC/USDT at 1,319.97 after dropping to 1,271.40 from the 1,412.45 high. On the 1h, price sits above EMA5 and EMA10 but below EMA20 at 1,331.94. I'm staying patient until resistance flips. What would confirm strength for you?
#OKXTraderVoices Employment data was weaker than expected, but the market's first reaction was not to worry about the economy, rather a sigh of relief.
Poor data means less pressure for continued monetary tightening, so money is more willing to flow into risk assets. Tech stocks led the charge, with the Nasdaq hitting a record intraday high, and the S&P and Dow rising for two consecutive days.
But on the other side, it was not calm: U.S. Treasuries were sold off again, yields formed a V-shaped intraday move, crude oil plunged due to the G7's plan to release reserves, and gold and silver declined throughout the week.
The significance of this combination for $BTC is that its current rhythm is tightly linked to macro liquidity— as long as the market believes interest rates have peaked, funds are willing to allocate more to high-volatility assets.
Whether this asset can hold onto this wave of sentiment depends not on daily price swings but on two things: whether U.S. Treasury yields will push back up, and whether upcoming employment and inflation data will overturn the logic that "weak data is good news."
If yields continue to rise and funds flow back into bonds, risk asset sentiment will cool down first.
So right now, it feels more like expectations are driving the market rather than fundamentals genuinely improving. $BTC $ETH #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Anthropic is targeting an IPO in mid-November, with a potential valuation reaching up to $2 trillion — the formal roadshow is expected to start as early as the week of November 9, with trading anticipated to begin before Thanksgiving (November 26).
The May 2026 funding round was completed at a valuation of $965 billion, raising $65 billion.
The most astonishing figure here is, of course, the "$2 trillion" valuation — this means that Anthropic as a single company would be approaching the annual GDP of many countries.
But beyond the numbers, what’s noteworthy is the timing it represents: AI leading companies moving from "private funding" to "public listing" signifies that this sector is officially entering the "public market pricing" phase.
The AI narrative is shifting from "bets by a few funds" to "stocks available for everyone to buy."
Previously, we discussed how AI consumes massive amounts of computing power and electricity, with energy becoming a bottleneck, and related infrastructure stocks (like optical interconnects) benefiting — the real fuel behind this is such massive capital expenditure.
The IPO is a key answer to the question of "where the money comes from" in this chain:
The primary market funds are no longer sufficient, so money must be raised from the secondary market.
And every additional penny poured into AI increases the demand for computing power, electricity, and the infrastructure to "measure and settle computing power."After 10 days of trading, today felt like the most exhausting session.
$BTC survived a $2.5K drop and is still down around $700. If $85.2K fails as support, the next consolidation zone could be $83K–$85K.
$ETH is around $2,702. I opened a short on 20 ETH with a max loss of $1,500. Thankfully, ETH weakened enough for me to exit safely and enjoy a pork knuckle meal. 😅
If $2,700 breaks, the next range to watch is $2,650–$2,695.
$BTC
#BTCETHETFOutflows
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge There won't be much news before the 14th, but from PCE to non-farm payrolls, the expectations for rate hikes have been continuously weakening. The market momentum has mostly been consumed during this period, especially last night's US stock market, which felt a bit breathless. My personal expectation is to look for a pullback and bearish trend before October 12, roughly back to around 81000. It's the weekend now, so there's not much liquidity, but market makers tend to use liquidity to sweep stops back and forth, especially with $ETH. I suggest not trading during the weekend. However, I think $HYPE is worth watching; I plan to short one position around 89.4 over the weekend 8 million ZRO tokens, 14.98 million USD, have entered Coinbase Prime.
This wallet received 40.57 million tokens from a LayerZero strategic partner a year ago, and now less than one-fifth has moved.
Honestly, my first reaction to this kind of news is not panic, but fatigue.
Tokens from a strategic partner, unlocked and held for a year, are now moving to exchanges—if you say this is preparation to dump, the evidence is insufficient; if you say it’s completely fine, that doesn’t seem right either.
But the direction is clear: this batch of chips has started moving.
The biggest mistake retail investors make is seeing the words "transferred to exchange" and immediately imagining a crash, then nervously selling at a loss.
My attitude: don’t panic, but take note.
If these two addresses continue moving tokens to exchanges later, then it’s worth paying serious attention. For now, treat these 8 million as a signal, not a conclusion.
#SEC主席Atkins称将推进链上募资规则明确化
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT $ZRO BTC briefly surged to 87,000 last night, then was sharply pushed back to 84,600.
This is already the third failed attempt to break 87,000.
The first was in late September. The second was on September 24, triggering $280 million long liquidations within 4 hours. The third was last night—despite poor employment data, a significant cooling of rate hike expectations, a broad rally in US stocks, and Nvidia hitting a new high.
All the positive factors were given to you, yet you still can’t hold above 87,000.
This is the real question that needs to be clearly understood today.
📊 Let’s first clarify the current market status
Price position: BTC is oscillating around 84,000, having experienced a rollercoaster this week from “82,000 → 87,000 → 84,000.” On the 4-hour chart, the price is just being suppressed by the EMA50 (83,986 USD).
Key levels: Resistance above lies between 85,500 and 87,300 USD, where Glassnode data shows a dense wall of sell orders. Support below is at 77,200 USD, which is the average holding cost line of active investors (True Market Mean); breaking below this could weaken the current upward momentum.
Capital flow: The good news is ETF net inflows have returned, with $102.7 million net inflow on October 1, of which BlackRock’s IBIT alone took $195 million. Q3 ETF net inflows reached $6.34 billion, a quarterly high for the year. The bad news is—after nearly $1 billion single-day inflow on September 21, the inflow pace has clearly slowed, dropping to $24 million on September 28.
Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 72 to 67, indicating cooling greed.
Macro: September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with the previous two months revised down by 60,000, and unemployment rising to 4.2%. Market pricing for October rate hikes plunged from 70% a week ago to less than 20%.
🔍 But here’s an overlooked detail
Everyone is focused on the cooling rate hike expectations, thinking it’s bullish.
But look at the 10-year US Treasury yield—after the nonfarm data release, it briefly fell from 5.34% to 5.15%, then quickly rebounded above 5.27%.
What fell has all risen back.
What does this mean? The market verbally says "rate hike expectations are cooling," but the bond market votes with its feet saying "long-term rates won’t come down."
BTC’s current rebound has never followed FedWatch; it follows US Treasury yields. If Treasury yields don’t fall, BTC can’t rise. It’s that simple.
🎯 Three scenario simulations
Scenario A: Hold above 85,000, break out above 87,000 with volume
Probability: Medium
Trigger: ETF net inflows exceed $100 million daily for more than 3 consecutive days, or new institutional allocation announcements (e.g., pension funds, sovereign wealth funds) appear.
Direction: Target 90,000–92,000.
How to act: Don’t chase at 86,000. Wait for price to break above 87,000, then retest 85,000 without breaking it, and volume to significantly increase before entering on the right side. Only a breakout with volume counts; a low-volume fake breakout will just cause you losses again.
Warning signal: If price stands above 87,000 but ETF inflows shrink, it’s likely another fake breakout.
Scenario B: Range-bound between 82,000 and 87,000
Probability: Relatively high
Trigger: ETF inflows and outflows alternate, no new macro variables. Market enters a "waiting for the next catalyst" mode.
Direction: Continue bottoming. Don’t expect direction; wait for the next variable.
How to act: Buy low, sell high within the range. Buy near 82,000, reduce near 86,000. But honestly, most people aren’t suited for frequent trading in a choppy market—the small spreads you earn won’t cover fees and emotional costs.
More pragmatic approach: If your position is heavy, reduce some above 85,000; if light, consider buying near 82,000. Don’t do anything in the middle.
Scenario C: Break below 82,000 support
Probability: Low but must be guarded against
Trigger: 10-year Treasury yield surges back above 5.4%, or geopolitical conflicts escalate, pushing oil prices up and triggering new inflation concerns.
Direction: Retest 78,000–80,000, extreme case down to 77,200 (True Market Mean support).
How to act: Cut losses decisively if it breaks below 82,000; don’t fantasize. Wait for price to stabilize and climb back above 82,000 before considering entry. 77,200 is the bottom line; breaking it means a new story.
Have you noticed—each of the three attempts had stronger bullish factors than the last.
The first relied on sentiment, the second on technicals, the third on employment data collapse + halved rate hike expectations + Nvidia new highs.
The result? Each high was lower than the previous one.
In technical analysis, this is called a "lower high"—usually a sign of trend exhaustion, not accumulation.
Of course, on-chain data offers some comfort: about 50,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges in the past two weeks, exchange balances dropped to a six-year low, and supply is tightening. This means selling pressure is decreasing.
But supply tightening is just a condition; demand explosion is the catalyst. Without new funds coming in, tighter supply just means "no one is selling," not "many are buying."
Don’t mistake "no sellers" for "buyers present."
Stop focusing on FedWatch. Focus on the 10-year Treasury yield.
If Treasury yields don’t fall below 5%, BTC hitting 87,000 is a dream. If Treasury yields surge back above 5.4%, 82,000 won’t hold.
The real scenario isn’t in the Fed’s words, but in bond market prices.
$BTC $SPCX $NVDA #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Employment data only increased by 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, which should have been positive for gold.
But after a brief surge, gold prices turned down, closing down 0.95% at $4162, while silver fell 1.24% to $60.4.
The issue is not with the data, but with the bond market.
The 10-year US Treasury yield earlier this week hit the highest level since 2002, with the 30-year around 5.57%.
Gold does not yield interest, and with risk-free yields at a more than twenty-year high, the holding cost is too high.US September Nonfarm Payrolls: 29,000. Expected 90,000. A full threefold difference.
July and August data were also revised down by a total of 60,000 jobs. Unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%.
Once the data was released, CME FedWatch showed the probability of keeping rates unchanged in October jumped directly from 78% to 86.2%. Traders no longer fully price in at least one more rate hike this year.
What about the US stock market? The Dow rose 0.49%, the S&P 0.74%, and the Nasdaq 1.19%.
NVIDIA hit an intraday all-time high, with a market cap approaching $5.7 trillion, less than $300 billion away from $6 trillion.
And Bitcoin?
At the moment the data came out, BTC briefly surged to $87,000, then — pulled back. Currently at $84,643, down 0.7% in 24 hours.
Employment data is positive, US stocks went crazy, but Bitcoin got stuck.
This is no coincidence. Looking at these three sets of data together, you’ll find a very clear pattern.
📊 Data ① — Employment: The positive impact has landed, but was eaten up by AI stocks
Don’t rush to celebrate.
September nonfarm payrolls of 29,000 looks like a “positive for risk assets,” right? Poor employment → Fed won’t dare to hike → loose liquidity → positive for Bitcoin.
But the market didn’t react that way.
Nasdaq rose 1.19%, NVIDIA hit an all-time high. The liquidity expectations brought by employment data were all intercepted by AI stocks.
Funds didn’t flow into Bitcoin, but into NVIDIA, Tesla, SpaceX, Broadcom, ASML. All gains are AI narratives.
What’s more painful: The Fed just hiked 25 basis points last month to 3.75%-4.00%, the first hike in three years, still hawkish. Even if no hike in October, the probability of at least one more hike this year remains 86.8%.
Employment data is positive. But Bitcoin didn’t benefit from this positive.
📊 Data ② — Fund flows: Inflowing, but not enough to break $87,000
Look at ETF funds.
Bitcoin spot ETFs had net inflows of $3.1 billion over 9 consecutive days, the strongest wave this year. On Wednesday, there was a net outflow of $148.7 million, ending the streak.
But on Thursday it immediately recovered: single-day net inflow of $103 million, BlackRock IBIT led with $196 million net inflow, total net asset value $109.3 billion.
Funds are not systematically withdrawing. But the willingness to chase above $85,000 is clearly insufficient.
IBIT alone carried $196 million, other ETFs either zero inflow or net outflow. Fidelity FBTC had a single-day net outflow of $60.73 million.
This is not a broad-based inflow, it’s BlackRock alone holding the line.
📊 Data ③ — Price: $87,000 is an iron ceiling, three attempts all failed
Technicals are more straightforward.
BTC tried three times to break $87,000, three failures. Formed a small double top structure. $85,000 became resistance, $82,000-$83,000 became support.
Glassnode data is even harsher: the amount of long-term holder coins clustered in the $84,000 to $85,000 range is higher than any other price range. Price must break and hold above this range for the rally to continue.
More worrisome: BTC’s Bull Score remains at 90/100 but shows signs of fatigue. Profit-taking activity is increasing, derivatives trading volume hit one of the largest single-day records in 2026.
Translation: Someone is selling.
🔗 Putting the three data sets together, the conclusion is one sentence:
Employment positive → eaten by AI stocks
Fund inflows → just enough to support, not enough to break through
Price → $87,000 iron ceiling, break means $90,000+, no break means continued consolidation
💡 So what are we waiting for now?
Waiting for a catalyst. Either continuous large ETF inflows (not $100 million level, but over $500 million), or macro unexpectedly positive (e.g., Fed clearly signaling pause in hikes).
Before that, $82,000 to $87,000 is the current battleground.
Bitcoin isn’t not rising, it just can’t rise.
It’s not that no one is buying, it’s that buyers aren’t aggressive enough.
🎯 To be honest.
Last night’s data combination, in any normal market environment, Bitcoin should have broken $87,000.
But it didn’t.
What does this mean? It means the market is waiting for a stronger signal. Not the “poor employment” old positive that’s been digested repeatedly, but the moment the Fed truly turns.
AI stocks are absorbing all liquidity, Bitcoin is waiting in the cracks.
This is the real current pattern.
$87,000, break means $90,000+. No break, continue grinding.
$BTC $ETH $NVDA #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% After the weak data release, $BTC dropped sharply from a high of $86,700 to around $84,000, and $ETH weakened in sync, with prices falling from the intraday high of $2,779 to around $2,648.
The market logic is that although the weak nonfarm data reduces the probability of a Fed rate hike in October (from 29% down to 17%), traders are more concerned about the economic outlook weakening, which suppresses corporate profits and risk appetite.$MSTU Damn it! It's quiet outside, the market is dog-eat-dog, this kind of scene old pros have seen many times.
MSTU was strongly pulled up to 43.958, but the volume can't keep up, clearly a manipulative dealer fishing with a sickle. Don't get carried away, chasing longs at this level is just feeding bullets to the dealer. Pure capital-driven pull, no news support, basically a bull trap before a shakeout.
I'm placing a SELL order, shorting near 43.95, stop loss must be set at 45.2; if it breaks 45, I'll admit defeat. Downside targets are first 41, then more aggressively 39.5.
If you want to follow, set up an ambush on the lower market card, don't ask me why, just market intuition. Do you dare to catch this knife? 👇👇👇
(This is only a personal review, not investment advice, control your position size and always set stop loss)Good morning! After making trades, I actually feel that waking up early every day is very fulfilling. The first thing I do when I open my eyes in the morning is definitely to check the market. For me, trading is also a form of inner growth. I am a fire sign and a bit impatient, but in the trading market, I simply can't be impatient at all, so it really tests my overall emotional stability. Recently, I made a few trades. I was holding positions, but actually, this is unhealthy. If you do short-term trading, you need a short-term approach; if you do long-term trading, you need a long-term mindset. I happened to be stuck in the middle, doing short-term trades while thinking about long-term profits, which led to me enduring these trades with difficulty. I'm very grateful that I didn't fall victim to this wrong approach. Buffett once said, "If I knew where I was going to die, I would never go there." So before trading, you must calmly analyze and avoid big pitfalls first. Then think about how to earn your share. Doing the right key things, with a broad vision combined with imaginative and proactive thinking beyond conventional frameworks, is ten thousand times better than shooting blindly. Because the market is always there, don't rush; what is yours will eventually be yours. Maintaining a good mindset and trying to be at ease in the market is always better than just holding positions stubbornly. Wishing everyone all the best and continued success!Nonfarm payrolls shocked, the October rate hike is basically killed, but don't rush to celebrate a fully dovish outcome. Bitcoin once surged past 87,000 and closed near 86,600, up about 3% for the day; Ethereum falsely broke through 2,770 but then dropped back to 2,660, closing down on the daily chart. Macro gave some sweetness, but liquidity didn't catch it, which is the biggest divergence between the two. The stock market ate it all up, with the Nasdaq hitting another intraday all-time high, and the Dow and S&P following suit. Gold couldn't hold at the 4,220 level and fell back to around 4,140. US Treasury yields rose instead of falling, which is the most worrisome signal in this rebound. Weak nonfarm payrolls changed expectations for October but not for December. $BTC $ETHOn Saturday morning, I checked the BTC perpetual contracts thoroughly — spot price around 84635, contracts close at 84591, funding rate slightly negative at about -0.0013%, with open interest nominally still at 2.42 billion. Slightly lower compared to Shanghai's opening at 85330 at midnight, daily high touched 85510, daily low 83884.
The funding rate hasn't turned positive, and OI hasn't clearly dropped; short-term focus is whether it can hold above the daily high of 85510; if it falls back to around 84100, don't try to hold hard. $ETH is hovering near 2681, rhythm not yet aligned.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #ContractMarket #FundingRate #SaturdayMorning #RiskWarning
This is not investment advice, the market carries risks, please trade cautiously. The $387 million theft on Bitget is not just about "another exchange hack," but about the fact that cross-chain money laundering and on-chain tracking of crypto assets are entering the AI-to-AI phase.
Chainalysis disclosed that after the attack on September 24, within just three hours, about $387 million was quickly distributed across four chains through 23 transfers: Ethereum at 49.7%, XRP at 40.8%, Zcash at 7.6%, and TRON at 1.8%. The attacker then used cross-chain liquidity protocols to convert XRP into BTC, with tens of millions of dollars flowing over about a day and a half, eventually reaching the attacker's BTC address, which is still under surveillance.
This path is typical: first quickly diversify assets, then switch to cross-chain conversion, and finally enter addresses that are harder to link directly with. In the past, manual tracking for this operation could take a lot of time, but Chainalysis said that this time, using internal AI and automation tools, the cross-chain reconciliation, which originally took over 20 hours, was compressed into under 10 minutes.
Here, an interesting contrast emerges: attackers use automation and cross-chain tools to speed up fund transfers, while investigators are using AI to speed up fund tracking. Transparency in the crypto world is entering a new phase; on-chain funds are not disappearing, but are constantly changing form across different networks and protocols.
More concerning, Chainalysis said this incident attributed to North Korea-related attackers will make its 2026 North Korea-related statistics count