Since 2013, Bitcoin's October performance has risen 10 times out of 13. The average return is 18.52%, with a median of 12.73%. In October 2021, it rose 42.92%. In October 2013, it doubled directly by 60%.
In the crypto community, this has a special name: Uptober.
Every year around this time, the whole network starts hyping it. KOLs begin shouting "October must rise," the community starts painting big pictures, and you start wondering "maybe I should go all in."
But today I want to talk about: why Uptober will fail in 2025, and what exactly is being bet on this October.
🧊 First, let's pour some cold water: October 2025.
A textbook Uptober start. Bitcoin surged to a historic high of $126,080 at the beginning of October, and the record of 7 consecutive years of October gains seemed rock solid.
Then Trump threw out a 100% tariff threat on China.
On October 10, over $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in one day. The largest liquidation day in crypto history.
By the end of the month, Bitcoin closed down about 4%. Uptober turned into Rektober.
Seven years of consecutive gains ended overnight.
Patterns are always meant to be broken.
💊 September this year was indeed impressive.
Bitcoin closed September up 6.33%-7.33%, marking the best September performance since 2013. Ethereum rose 8.77% in September, also the second-best September on record.
Historically, September is Bitcoin's worst month—with an average return of -2.34%. Four consecutive Septembers of gains is the longest streak in existing data.
Bitcoin's cumulative Q3 gains approached 40%, poised to be the strongest Q3 since 2017.
Strong September, even stronger October? Historical patterns say: yes.
But the market never runs solely on historical patterns.
🎯 This October, there are three cards on the table.
Bullish cards:
September +6.33%, the second-best September historically, laying momentum for October
Citibank raised Bitcoin's 12-month target price from $82,000 to $113,000, citing increased ETF inflows and improved macro environment
30-year US Treasury yield fell back from a 5.6% peak, improving short-term risk appetite
Multiple Fed officials hinted no rate hike in October; the probability of an October hike dropped from 70% to about 25%
Bearish cards:
Fed raised rates by 25bps to 3.75%-4% on September 16, the first hike in 2023, passed unanimously
Although October hike probability cooled, another hike this year is still possible
ETF funds turned to a net outflow of $148.7 million on September 30, breaking a 9-day net inflow streak
10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.289% at the end of September, 30-year at 5.632%, both hitting 52-week highs
Wildcard card:
A liquidation map shows Bitcoin's 30-day leveraged long exposure at $4.35 billion, concentrated around $74,170
If price breaks key support, these positions could trigger a chain liquidation, causing a cascade
The lesson from October 10 last year’s $19 billion liquidation is still fresh
🤔 So the core question isn't "will it rise or not."
The core question is: between seasonal momentum and macro pressure, which is stronger this year?
Bullish logic: September delivered historic-level performance, ETF Q3 net inflows about $6.34 billion, Citibank raised target price, October hike probability cooled to 25%.
Bearish logic: Fed has already started hiking, unanimously approved. 10-year Treasury yield above 5.2%, no-yield assets naturally suffer. ETF fund flows turned negative at month-end. $4.35 billion leveraged longs hanging overhead.
Both sides have true arguments. This is what makes the market so torturous.
💡 My own judgment in one sentence:
Seasonality can support the trend but cannot offset macro shocks.
September's gains were due to "bad news priced in" after Fed hikes plus concentrated ETF inflows. But in October, this logic faces two hurdles:
First hurdle: October 2 Nonfarm Payroll data. Too strong → rate hike expectations return → Bitcoin under pressure. Too weak → recession fears → risk assets still pressured.
Second hurdle: October 14 CPI data. This is the last key inflation data before the Fed's late-October meeting. If inflation doesn't come down, rate hike expectations will be repriced.
Passing both hurdles means the late-October meeting might give the market a breather.
Failing means forget Uptober, Rektober awaits you.
/ To be honest.
Uptober is a statistical fact, not a destiny guarantee.
10 rises out of 13 times, a 77% probability. Sounds high. But in a casino game with a 77% win rate, you still have a 23% chance to lose.
And the 2025 lesson is clear—when macro storms hit, seasonality is just a paper tiger.
$19 billion liquidations won't not happen just because "October historically averages an 18% rise."
The market won't go easy on you just because you believe in patterns.
/ Final sentence
This October, it's not about "will it rise or not."
It's about "can it withstand rate hike pressure."
Seasonality gives you probability. Macro gives you reality.
Don't mistake probability for a promise.
$BTC$ETH$ZEC#9月非农今晚公布，加息预期成焦点
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