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Open interest remains unchanged, funding rate starts to turn negative, long positions are fleeing, this should be the beginning of a crash, you can start shorting now, brothers Being bullish on ETH doesn't mean defending every piece of bad news
If a viewpoint only accepts positive news, it’s hard to rely on it long-term. I am optimistic about $ETH, but I don’t expect every malfunction, delay, or capital outflow to be explained as an even bigger positive. Reliable long-term judgments should allow for some local facts to be unpleasant and for some expectations not to be met as originally planned.
What truly affects judgment is whether the problem changes key conditions. A brief price pullback is different from sustained demand shrinkage; a single application failure is different from a systemic protocol-level failure; adjusting target dates is different from a decline in long-term delivery capability. First determine the level at which the problem exists, then decide whether to adjust your view to avoid switching positions based on emotions.
For ETH holders, I think the most valuable thing to keep is the ability to review. The clearer the reasons for optimism are written, the easier it is to know which data needs updating and which assumptions have weakened. Position sizing should also leave room for the unknown, rather than forcing yourself to always be bullish with all your funds.
Ethereum’s long-term competitiveness requires ongoing maintenance of engineering, user base, and capital relationships together. Supporting it does not mean endorsing every project, nor does it mean erasing every risk. If future evidence supports it, continue to increase confidence; if evidence changes, seriously revise your judgment. A bullish stance that can accept scrutiny is more powerful than slogans that never admit mistakes. The market doesn’t reward the loudest attitude; it makes everyone bear the consequences of their own judgments.Vitalik said that next year's upgrade might be the last "understandable" upgrade for Ethereum.
All subsequent upgrades will be about cryptography and quantum resistance.
Old developers won't recognize it anymore. Exciting, right? If you're an old developer, are you angry? He's so cocky.
Why change it this way?
Right now, every node has to recalculate the entire ledger.
In the future, no need to calculate it anymore,
just glance at the "I calculated correctly" proof submitted by the other party.
The result is one word: fast.
A block takes 4 to 8 seconds, eventually settling at 8 to 32 seconds.
Back in 2015, you had to wait 200 seconds, and now it still probably takes a few minutes.
Why is it still called blockchain after the change?
Vitalik said: mainly out of habit, haha, want to punch him.
Let me sound professional first:
Hegota is likely the last normal fork of Ethereum.
The testnet will launch on October 6, the mainnet is scheduled for Q4 this year but the date isn't set yet. Then comes Hegota, definitely next year.
I wrote an article this morning and will rant again tonight.
When everyone praises that last normal upgrade,
shouldn't we try to understand it differently?
A network telling you "you don't need to understand what I change in the future" is not progress, it's handing over power, it's a compromise to capital.
Speaking of speed, you've already got instant transactions on L2, who benefits from the mainnet producing blocks every few seconds?
Also, after the change, it won't be called blockchain anymore, so the competitor isn't other chains,
it's Amazon's cloud services. The faster it gets, the more computing power and storage it requires. $PONS is currently priced around $0.53–0.54, with a 24-hour decline of about 13% and a 7-day drop of about 12%; however, it still shows significant gains over the past month, indicating that this is more like a rapid pullback from a high level rather than a normal sideways consolidation.
Key Market Points
Short-term weakness: The 24-hour range is about $0.51–0.60, currently near the lower end of the range, indicating obvious selling pressure.
Around $0.51 is the first support: If there is a clear volume increase to absorb selling here, a short-term bottom may form; if it breaks down effectively, the next phase is likely to seek lower support.
$0.60–0.64 is the main resistance zone: Today it has clearly fallen back from this area, and until it can reclaim above $0.60, it is difficult to confirm a short-term rebound.
Contract leverage is relatively heavy: Currently, PONS futures trading volume is about $282 million, with open interest around $143 million, while spot trading volume is significantly lower than futures, indicating that current price fluctuations are largely influenced by contract funds.
coinglass
Previously, the average funding rate was positive, meaning longs paid shorts; during the price decline, if the funding rate continues to stay at a high positive level, caution is needed for crowded longs → further liquidation.$ZEC $BTC $SOL Previously, Bitcoin surged sharply, and most people missed out, so they opened short positions, but ended up shorting halfway up, or above 83,000. Last Friday it dropped, reaching the cost price for some people. Some thought they finally broke even, but they didn't dare to chase the long. Watching Bitcoin pull up to 85,000. Today it dropped again, everyone felt the correction was in place, suddenly feeling the correction was in place and it was time to get on board and go long. This is the retail investor mentality. The first drop indicates heavy selling pressure above; the second drop here is actually not a good place to buy more. The positions retail investors see as bullish are often just a downtrend continuation!!!#Ondo launches tokenized portfolios based on BlackRock strategies Ondo has launched Ondo Intelligent Portfolios, introducing three tokenized portfolios with underlying strategies provided by BlackRock, targeting qualified investors outside the United States. A single on-chain token can hold a basket of diversified assets, covering three allocation schemes: high yield, balanced growth, and high growth.
BlackRock only provides the model strategies and is not responsible for token custody or operations. Asset rebalancing is automatically executed by smart contracts, and holdings can be verified on-chain. After the news broke, ONDO surged significantly, becoming a landmark event in the RWA sector, representing the traditional asset management giant officially bringing mature asset allocation models on-chain, bridging traditional finance and on-chain assets.
On the risk side, the product has access restrictions, and ordinary investors cannot participate; tokenized assets are still subject to local regulatory constraints, and policy changes may affect the product's existence. Meanwhile, ONDO's short-term surge is huge, driven by sentiment, with extreme volatility.
This event is positive for the long-term narrative of the RWA sector, but do not chase the high in the short term. Focus on continuously monitoring product capital inflows and regulatory developments.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Let's summarize what we can do in terms of operations. Let's start with the key points of this round: there hasn't been any major price changes, and basically there aren't much volatility. We'll follow the trading methods I mentioned before, and make sure to take profits and stop losses properly. Current prices are: Bitcoin 83,300, Ethereum 2,675, Solana 118.7, Dogecoin 0.0926, Ripple 1.499. Looking at the 24-hour trend, Bitcoin fell about 1.3%, Ethereum 0.5%, Solana 2.6%, Dogecoin 4.3%, and Ripple 1.1%. Ethereum was the most resilient today, while Dogecoin was the weakest, but overall everything remained within the previous range without any new direction. All price levels remain unchanged, so I'll consolidate again. Bitcoin: Bullish. Add positions around 80,000, very short-term stop loss 78,000, medium- to long-term stop loss 75,000. Target 90,000 or even 100,000, subjective opinion. Ethereum: Bullish, slowly bottoming out. Adding positions near 2,500, stop loss around 2,300. Solana: Short position, 140 is resistance and stop loss. Add points as previously mentioned. Dogecoin: short near 0.1, add at 0.1, stop loss at 0.12. Ripple: Between the current price and 1.7, you can buy short positions in batches, stop loss at 1.7. Why do we just follow the plan? Because at the current price, both positions are still in the plan. Long position: BitcoinHeavy positions are more fierce Wife leaves and children scatter
Floating profits add positions One trade loses everything
Frequent trading Completely meaningless
Technical analysis Eating chaff and having diarrhea
Leveraging again Direct bankruptcyThe Fear and Greed Index is at 75, but my stop loss remains at the same price.
Today the Fear and Greed Index rose to 75, up 6 points from yesterday, indicating a "greedy" state. Market sentiment is heating up quickly.
But my position hasn't changed, my stop loss hasn't moved, and I'm still holding what I should.
The index went from 70 to 75 in just a few days. Sentiment can double in a few days, but the stop loss line won't move up just because sentiment changes. The biggest mistake during greed is not buying too much, but widening the stop loss more and more—"giving it a little more room."
Giving room is fine, but it must be done before placing the order. Giving room after placing the order isn't room; it's just luck.
The index manages others' emotions; the stop loss manages my own.A Yuan's fourth day of effort: from 300u to 3000u.
Today, September 28, BTC and ETH each made 2 short trades, earning 50u.
On the fourth day of opening positions, total profit is 130u.
I mainly short. I only know a little about indicator analysis, so I basically go by feeling. Every time BTC rises about 1%, I short it. The position size is small since the principal is only 300u. The initial position is basically 30u-40u, 100x leverage, with additional positions of 20u-30u. I close positions as soon as I have profits, usually around 20u each time, to lock in gains. Don't talk about long-term strategies; with this little money, I just want to make some profit.
I hope $BTC $ETH will rise tomorrow so I can short again. There has been new progress in reflecting and reviewing during this period
Regarding position management and technical application
For small funds, the biggest thing is to go all in on the right thing
jjking lost more than ten million in less than a month but has bounced back
Really impressive. I originally thought he was just one of those KOLs who rose by taking dividends, but it turns out he’s the real deal haha
When a big market comes, having the courage to go heavy with high leverage to seize the opportunity
Just this one thing, many people think it’s very risky gambling
But actually, it’s not
This is the true essence of trading.
What is “trading” after all
It’s exchanging your viewpoint with the market
Buying the direction others don’t favor
Taking on risks others dare not bear
That’s all
It can also be one-sidedly understood as “speculation” BTC October Puzzle: The Feast of the Carvers, the Scythe of the Market Makers
The market never lacks those who carve the boat to seek the sword.
A group of BTC bulls who missed the boat are holding onto the K-line charts from the last bull market, trying to replicate the wealth formula in this cycle. They are eyeing a four-day window ahead, planning to stop-loss and short at the previous high, targeting 67000, with an extreme stop-loss set at 95000, holding the short position until September 30.
Their logic is simple: history will repeat. But they forget that the market’s greatest skill is to drown the carvers.
The real turning point is hidden in mid-October. That’s exactly 54 weeks from the start of the decline. Spot traders will timely "carve the boat" to enter, treating technical charts as the bible, collectively switching to long positions. Those who missed out won’t endure the shorts and will surrender to go long at the same time.
When all the carvers point in the same direction, the market makers’ harvesting machine has already started. Mid-October may not be a second bull market launch but a slaughterhouse for both longs and shorts—first blasting the shorts, then quietly killing the spot traders chasing longs.
The market never hands over answers because of an old chart. When everyone thinks they understand the script, the ending has often already been rewritten. October’s BTC may be waiting to teach the carvers the most expensive lesson.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC - Hourly timeframe
The low point was broken ✅ The next magnet is the weekly open imo. Suitable for scalping long positions.
Supported by range concept, local mmd, local SFP, TPO (break of low), and the upper weekly open magnet.
I made a scalping long. I don't want to share too many management details, but the idea is similar: reduce position midway, close 60/70% at the target (weekly open), stop loss if local break occurs.
Given my overall bearish preference, expecting 75k, so I manage it quite tightly.
But between the 86k entry and 75k target, this setup has room to play counter-trend.Afternoon forecast to be realized in the evening
BTC: 83794 → 83048, down about 746 points
ETH: 2697 → 2658, down about 39 points
$BTC $ETH $SOL $BTC bank payment infrastructure provider Volante Technologies and Circle announced a strategic partnership to integrate USDC-related payment and settlement processes into Volante's bank payment platform, enabling financial institutions to evaluate stablecoins within existing payment infrastructures without the need to build separate digital asset systems.
Supported processes include USDC minting and redemption, collection wallet registration, fund transfers, and wallet-to-wallet payments. Volante's clients include 4 of the world's top 5 corporate banks and 7 of the top 10 banks in the United States. This cooperation aims to promote banks moving stablecoins from the trial phase to actual payment and settlement applications. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Institutions are scooping up, leverage is bleeding — the truth behind the slow decline shakeout
On the eve of the PCE data release, the market continued to decline on low volume. But beneath the calm surface, a brutal chip exchange is underway.
$BTC: reported at 82,900, down 1.82%. A key signal emerged — Strategy increased its BTC holdings by 1,666 last week. Giants are still buying during the decline. However, the price remains suppressed below the short-term moving averages, with RSI at 40.64 indicating weakness. Institutions are accumulating chips while leveraged longs are bleeding; this is a typical bottom chip exchange process.
$ETH: down 1%. More resilient than BTC. But the derivatives market hides danger — facing $50 million long liquidation pressure. Shorts are pushing hard before the data release, trying to sweep out the last floating chips. Holding 2,630 is the short-term key.
$SOL: down 3.11%, leading the mainstream decline. On-chain divergence appears: DeFi Development increased its SOL holdings by 47,706 last week, institutions are buying the dip. But selling pressure in the ecosystem remains heavy; institutional buying temporarily cannot withstand the retreating selling pressure.
Strategy and DeFi Development are increasing holdings, on-chain whales are accumulating; meanwhile, leveraged longs are being liquidated. This is the most torturous "shakeout period" before the market takes off.【On-Chain Trading Activity｜HYPE】
Monitored address 0xb7e0 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $87.25
▪ Transaction amount this time: $210,116.07
▪ Leverage: 10x
Note: This address has earned over $1,418,000 in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +28.04% The hottest topic in the community today: Someone officially proposed on GitHub to cut Dogecoin's block reward from 10,000 to 1,000, reducing inflation from 3.2% per year directly down to 0.3%. A community vote is expected later this year.
When I was on my way home tonight, pushing my bike across an overpass, I stopped and looked at my phone three times, my hands trembling a bit. It wasn’t fear, but the excitement of "after waiting so many years, someone is finally doing something serious." Cutting the newly issued coins to one-tenth of the original—doesn’t that mean scarcity? Scarcity is one of the most valuable words in the long run.
A net friend of mine was sarcastic in the group chat tonight, saying, "Dogecoin wants to imitate others and do deflation? Dream on." I stared at that sentence for a long time, typed a reply, deleted it, typed again, deleted again. Finally, I replied: Whether the vote passes or not, the community is moving forward. Haven’t you noticed this is no longer the joke Dogecoin it used to be?
Actually, I do have concerns—what if the proposal doesn’t pass? That would be disappointing. But then I thought, the fact that the proposal was even brought up shows there are people in the community with ideas and capabilities who have been working hard. These discussions didn’t even exist five years ago.
I’m holding steady, waiting quietly for the voting results. If it passes, I’ll hold with more confidence; if not, I’ll still hold. Because what I believe in isn’t just a proposal, it’s these people. Faith is watching them push forward again and again.BTC perpetual funding rate on OKX rises to 0.0063%, surpassing Ethereum; spot turnover at $83,465.3
Tonight, the BTC perpetual funding rate on OKX rose to 0.0063%, overtaking Ethereum. For those holding positions, tonight's focus is on the turnover at $83,465.3. The annualized cost of holding long positions has reached 6.9%. The short-side discount subsidy from a few days ago is gone, making the holding cost significantly higher than before.
I checked the contract position distribution; the total OKX perpetual contract size tonight stands at $7.792 billion. BTC contract positions account for $2.964 billion, ETH for $1.748 billion, and altcoin contract positions stand at $3.079 billion. The altcoin-to-BTC position ratio has dropped from 1.066 last night to 1.039. The overall market fear and greed index is at 74 (greedy). The total crypto market cap has fallen 3.35% in 24 hours to $2.875 trillion, with Bitcoin's market dominance at 58.11%.
I looked at the contract funding rates of other major coins, and the differences are quite large. ETH's rate is only 0.0032%, SOL has dropped to -0.0001%, and XRP is even at a discount of -0.0047%. On the altcoin contracts side, shorts are paying interest to longs, while only BTC longs are actually paying funding fees each period. The defensive willingness on both sides during market pullbacks is completely different.
I personally kept my BTC spot position during Monday's night session and did not place overnight orders in the contract account #ThisWeekWelcomesNonFarmAndPCEKeyData #EarningsObserver
$BTC remains range-bound at $83K–$85K despite nearly $3B in ETF inflows over six days. Demand is strong, but the breakout is still missing.
$ETH is hovering near $2,680, with $2,742 resistance and $2,650 support. My $2,712 short is still partially open.
$SOL continues to lead, moving from $117 to $122, but chasing the move could expose traders to a pullback.
In this choppy market, patience may be better than constantly flipping positionDoes this count as bearish news for $ZEC and other privacy coins?
If anonymity itself is a false proposition,
then the current value of ZEC is too inflated.
In that case, shorting $ZEC is a surefire win.
I don't want to close my position now; I even feel like adding to my short.
Holding from $993 until now,
countless times I wanted to stop loss and close the position,
but now it seems none of that was necessary.
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Let's take a look at Dogecoin. Let's start with the key points of this round: there hasn't been major price changes, so basically there aren't much volatility. We'll follow the trading method I mentioned before, and make sure to set both take-profit and stop-loss strategies. The current price is about 0.0926, down about 4.3% in 24 hours, making it the weakest among today's five coins. For example, OKX saw a 24-hour high of around 0.0978 and a low of 0.0920. It was near 0.0931 in the evening and dipped a bit further in the evening. As for the trading advice, my view remains unchanged: short near 0.1, add at 0.1, stop loss at 0.12, and take profit depends on the individual. Although Dog Dog dropped the most today, our plan has only one key point: 0.1 hasn't been reached yet. The planned short position is near 0.1, but now 0.0926 is below to chase shorts, but the stop-loss still needs to be set at 0.12, which makes the risk-reward ratio of this order look very bad. So the correct approach is to pre-position the short position near 0.1 and wait for it to rebound and be executed; If there is no rebound, it means the order should not have been done, and that's okay. Also, Dogecoin is an emotional coin; it's common for a single needle to move up and down several levels. Therefore, the position must be smaller than the big pie, and the stop loss must be placed together with the order. The smaller the position, the more you can hold on; The more you set the stop-loss than the hanging down, so you can sleep. Don't get carried away. From a technical perspective, look at the 4-hour chart as well. Last week, the dog surged to around 0.106, marked as a weak high$ETH 💥 Don't blindly trust the timeline! The market only recognizes capital and liquidity; remember the key levels.
Remember one thing in trading: price is the truth, the timeline is just a reference.
The market ignores all bullish speculations; what truly determines direction is always the strength of the buy and sell orders and liquidity.
$BTC key defense level at 84000
$ETH core support at 2660
$SOL needs volume to hold above 120 to be considered strong
Only a valid retracement with volume can reverse the current pattern; if the price refuses to reclaim key positions, the risk will continue to increase.
Patience itself is a position; don't make premature judgments, wait for confirmation signals before taking action.
Another major news: BTC spot ETF weekly inflows hit a near one-year high.
Rumors say the Trump administration plans to launch an overseas stablecoin program, involving multiple departments and public-private cooperation to deploy stablecoins overseas. This narrative is worth continuous tracking.Under what circumstances do people most want to trade?
1. When seeing others making money, the fear of missing out
2. After a series of personal successes, feeling very confident
3. When suffering a big loss, desperately wanting to recover
Therefore, when encountering these three situations, you need to stay alert at all times. Missing out is always better than losing 💰 by ten thousand times. Opportunities come every day, and often the biggest enemy on the trading path is yourself…………
#discipline #tradingAccount Position Divergence Radar
$XAU Top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 3.753, top positions long-short ratio is 0.711; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 5.793; price down 0.49%, position value change -1.76%.
$DOGE Top accounts are more long-biased, but position distribution is short-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.619, top positions long-short ratio is 0.753; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 3.604; price down 0.29%, position value change +1.38%.
$USELESS Both top accounts and top positions are long-biased: top accounts long-short ratio is 1.163, top positions long-short ratio is 1.055; overall market accounts long-short ratio is 0.350; price up 0.032%, position value change +0.61%. The structure of account numbers and position distribution in the top group are aligned. The overall market account structure is short-biased, which also differs from the top position bias.
XAU, DOGE: The side dominating in account numbers is opposite to the side dominating in positions, indicating divergence between account structure and position distribution; the overall market account structure is long-biased, which also differs from the top position bias.The controversy over tokenized stocks is not about on-chain technology, but about voting rights.
Adam Aron of AMC has called out Robinhood again.
This time, he says that overseas tokenized stocks must also retain voting rights.
The original rule states:
Robinhood in the US supports the SEC's position.
Tokenized stocks must have voting rights, and companies can opt out.
Common misunderstanding:
The same stock has voting rights in the US version but not in the overseas version.
So the overseas purchase is just a price certificate.
When the company holds a shareholders' meeting, this certificate has no vote.
Market makers will quote based on two sets of assets.
Those with voting rights and those with pure price exposure carry different risks.
Naturally, the price spreads will differ.
With inconsistent rules on both sides, who will ultimately set the price?
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC
#Ondo推出基于贝莱德策略的代币化投资组合 #ARK将13亿美元风投基金代币化 $AMC $ETH I think Ethereum still has another wave of decline
Currently, the hourly chart shows a rebound near 2630, unable to break through 2700
This indicates the overall trend is still downward, going long is very risky
At this stage, you can follow the major trend
Overall, you can still see around 2550
$BTC Bitcoin is much weaker than Ethereum, only rebounded to 83500 before losing momentum, less than a thousand points of rebound space
This shows the buying power is very weak now, affected by the US-Iran situation, it may continue to decline, and today is only Monday. This week is a non-farm payroll week, which may be influenced by gold Support Below
Support Level Position Significance
Immediate Support 82,561 Today's low, quickly recovered after liquidity hunting
Core Support 81,194 Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud + 50% Fibonacci double resonance
Liquidation Danger Zone $80,516 If broken, cumulative long liquidation intensity reaches $1.047 billion
Analyst Axel Kibar holds a cautious attitude, believing that BTC's weekly trend near 84,000-85,000 lacks decisive breakout characteristics, and the current indecisive pattern suggests the price may return to this range again. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 To add more, just now I saw some friends saying that the proposed amendments to Iran's proposal might be fake news, but it's quite the opposite.
Multiple media reports indicate that the Iranian Foreign Minister, originally scheduled to return home on Tuesday, chose to stay in the US, while at the same time the Qatari mediator also stayed. These reports corroborate the authenticity of the intermediary mediation in the US-Iran dialogue.
At the same time, media reports again confirm that the discussion is about a modified version of Iran's "7-day plan."
According to the current development trend, nominally the US and Iran still have opportunities for dialogue, which is optimistic, but caution must be maintained. As mentioned earlier, if Middle East energy output really recovers, it could very well become a reason for Trump to continue a tough stance. Of course, this does not rule out the possibility that this data is "fake news" released by the US through special means.
Obviously, the short-term news environment has entered a noise phase, and the situation can still be considered optimistic. The outcome depends on the situation in the next couple of days! #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 Really annoyed, BTC is grinding around 83000 again! Current price 83195.6, support at 83000, resistance at 83949. It's been grinding all day, can we get a clear move? But I'm not impulsive, holding a small 5000U position, will short if it breaks 83000, go long if it holds above 83949. Those who lost 200,000U understand the cost of impulsiveness best. No holding losing positions without stop loss, whoever wants to hold can hold, but I won't. Market can grind as it pleases, I have patience. $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 This week's non-farm payrolls: does weak data necessarily benefit BTC?
First, note two Beijing times: September 29 at 22:00, US August JOLTS job openings; October 2 at 20:30, September non-farm payroll report. The schedule is from BLS, data not yet released.
I'm more concerned about which market logic will prevail: a mild cooling might strengthen easing expectations; if employment deteriorates significantly, it could initially trigger risk aversion. We can't simply translate "below expectations" as "BTC must rise."
Before the release, keep the same source's expectations; after the release, look simultaneously at employment, unemployment rate, wages, and revisions to previous values, then observe whether the 2-year US Treasury yield, the dollar, and BTC give a consistent reaction. This is an observation framework, not a confirmed market cause-effect.
Do you think BTC fears overheating employment more, or employment slowdown? What data would make you change your judgment? $BTC $ETH $SOL Latest script: First kill leverage, then pump the market
The market has reached this point, and many people can't help but want to enter. $ETH is oscillating around 2650, with 2630 already broken. There will be another short-term drop; the whale long positions are piled up too thick, the chip burden is heavy, making it difficult to directly push up.
Clearing positions lie in ambush below: 8.86 million long orders at 2628–2631, only 1% away from the current price; 3.05 million at 2622; 20.2 million whale long orders hidden at 2613.89. But this is just the appetizer; 2555 is the deep water zone, where Huang Licheng has 95 million USD long orders that need to be tested one by one for shakeout.
This is active deleveraging, not a trend reversal. ETH futures open interest has decreased by 500,000 contracts over four days, leverage has fallen to March lows, ETF continues net inflows, and spot chips have not fled. The script is to sweep all liquidations first, then pump.
Macro is bearish. The Taiwan Strait situation pushes up oil prices, US and Japanese bond yields are at multi-year highs, and the market is still gambling on an October rate hike. QCP assessment: This is large-scale deleveraging, not simple risk hedging or portfolio adjustment.
$BTC broke below 84000, targets 81689 and 78590. ETH broke below the 7-day moving average, support at 2583; if broken, look for 2450-2500.
Place small test orders, do not go all in. Wait for 2613 and 2555 to be tested, and for macro signals to warm up before acting.
Whale positions not released, market can't be pushed; macro not easing, pressure remains. Opportunities come from waiting out #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高
Bitcoin rose 43.5% in Q3, reaching $84,626. On the same day, the spot ETF weekly net inflow was 2.386 billion, the highest in nearly a year. Putting these two numbers together, it looks like "ETF bought it up." Let's calculate, it doesn't hold up.
▪️ Bitcoin's market cap rose from 1.16 trillion to 1.68 trillion in Q3, an increase of 519.9 billion. That 2.386 billion only accounts for 0.46%.
▪️ Every 1% increase this quarter corresponds to about 11.95 billion USD market cap growth. The 2.386 billion translates to a 0.2 percentage point increase.
▪️ The ETF's net inflow for the entire quarter is only in the tens of billions range, with the strongest in August at 3.52 billion. This accounts for about 1% of the over 500 billion.
▪️ Others surged even more: Ethereum +71% had the best Q3 ever, XRP +48.1% the strongest in four years. These two are unrelated to the ETF.
The disagreement isn't whether the inflow is the highest in nearly a year, but that the ETF only accounts for a small fraction of the money behind the quarterly rise. It is counted in the denominator but is not the hand pushing the price up.
Over 500 billion, the tens of billions on the exchange can't explain it—whose money is pushing the price up?In trading, the most important thing is not technical analysis, such as Wyckoff or Chan theory.
The most important thing is to cut losses when wrong and hold on when right. These 10 words are the holy grail of trading. But ordinary people stubbornly hold on when wrong and run away after making a small profit when right, ending up losing more than they gain overall.
I now mostly do long-term cycle trading, which is basically investing, and I don't do much short-term trading. But if you really trade, you must hold on to the winning trades, which means you correctly bet on the trend, and holding on yields especially rich profits. Losing trades mean the direction is wrong, so you should cut losses.
It's okay to cut losses multiple times; as long as you bet correctly on a trend once and hold on, you will ultimately make money overall. But this requires extremely high psychological and emotional control from traders, and very few can achieve it.$ETH $DOGE $SUI
Current price: around $2686, slight 24H decline of -0.18%
24H range: $2637–$2715, narrow intraday fluctuations, following BTC correlation, volatility converging.
🔢 Contracts & Funding Data
- Overall network long-short ratio: longs 56.02%, shorts 43.97%, longs dominant but not strongly, sentiment neutral to slightly bullish
- Funding rate: +0.0004%, slightly positive, leveraged longs cost low, no extreme crowding
- 24H total ETH liquidations about $64.12 million, mainly long liquidations ($53.76 million), short-term long washout, no large-scale chain liquidation risk
- Total open interest $34.2 billion, recent slight increase in positions, funds are range trading
📰 News
1. Spot ETH ETF inflows have slowed, institutional funds no longer continuously adding unilaterally, short-term lacks strong incremental bullish catalysts
2. Staking volume remains high, exchange ETH inventory continues to decline, mid-to-long-term supply tight, but short-term unable to drive rapid surge
3. Market core variables still focus on BTC correlation + US stock risk asset volatility, ETH independent rally remains weak
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#财报观察员：美光财报临近，AI存储需求成焦点
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 【On-Chain Trading Update｜XRP】
Short position detected at address 0xc30c:
▪ Execution price: $1.5
▪ Transaction amount: $1,268,075.7
▪ Leverage: 20x$XDP longs can't be closed no matter how you try, watching the liquidation happen helplesslyBTC takes a breather, altcoins sprint ahead: Today, focus on three pullback levels
BTC hovers around $83,000, while hot money flows into strong altcoins. Today, watch SUI, NEAR, and PUMP, but chasing highs is less advisable than waiting for pullbacks.
SUI is at $1.26, up 8.4% daily. Volume and price are most aligned; $1.20–$1.23 is a support observation zone—if it holds, keep an eye on it; if it breaks above $1.28 again, the next target is $1.35.
NEAR is at $5.37, up 6.7% daily. AI narratives are warming up combined with rotation, with nearly $900 million in volume, outperforming the broader market. $5.15–$5.25 can be used as a pullback zone; only breaking $5.50 will open short-term upside.
PUMP is at $0.00508, up 15.7% daily. The platform uses about half of its daily revenue for buyback and burn, totaling approximately $463 million, a straightforward logic. But with the biggest gains, only small positions are recommended; wait for pullbacks; if it falls below $0.0047, don’t hold on stubbornly.
Right now, the hard part isn’t picking coins, it’s controlling your hands. Buy on pullbacks if given, otherwise just watch. The market won’t lack a tomorrow. The above is for observation only and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $SUI $NEAR
#本周迎非农与PCE关键数据
#美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
#BTC现货ETF周流入创近一年新高 Watching BTC hover around 83195.6, getting closer to the 83000 support, honestly a bit nervous. In the past, at times like this, I would heavily buy the dip, then hold the position, and end up losing 200,000 U. Now it's different, a small 5000 U position, stop loss set properly, if it breaks then I exit. Resistance at 83949, support at 83000, if broken then look at 82561. Never hold a position without a stop loss, these six words saved my life. The road to recovery is long, take it steady. $BTC #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 WSJ just wrote: Citibank wants to bring stablecoins into its merchant acquiring channels, so large enterprise clients can directly receive stablecoins at checkout; Coinbase will handle the payment track and on-chain infrastructure, automatically converting coins into fiat currency, with Citibank acting as the settlement bank for transactions. Conversely, Coinbase payment clients can also use Citibank's account tools to receive and deposit funds; Incoming cash can also be automatically converted into USD-pegged stablecoins and placed on Coinbase, with an official annualized reward of 3.75%. This wave of bank channels aligns with exchange tracks—hilarious, not like another empty slogan presentation. It's just that the official launch date and the list of the first batch of merchants haven't been released yet—if the channel is open, who goes first?The Clarity Act failed to enter the voting procedure, causing short-term regulatory expectations to cool down directly, and compliance-driven buying is temporarily absent. Monochrome's IEO and the shutdown of several services have no direct capital pull on BTC and do not constitute market drivers. BTC will only fluctuate between 82000 and 84000 in the short term.
On the chart, short-term moving averages are converging, the MACD green bars are shortening and showing signs of a death cross, indicating a clear weakening of rebound momentum. The liquidation chart shows a large accumulation of high-leverage liquidity near 86184. Once this level is swept upwards, it is very easy to see a spike followed by a rapid fall, making it unsuitable for chasing longs.
Just delivered food to the office building, and a collection call came in again, too lazy to answer. Back at the 83426 price, I won’t easily add longs before breaking above 84500.
Entry strategy: On a pullback to 82000 to 82400 with a stop-fall structure, you can lightly try going long, with a stop loss below 81500. The first target is 84000, and after breaking through, take profit near 86000. If the market directly breaks above 84600 with volume and the pullback does not break down, chase the second leg with a target of 86000 to 86500.
Short positions wait for stagnation between 86000 and 86500 before reversing, with a stop loss above 87000 and a target back to 84000. Currently, the long and short forces are balanced but downward pressure is slightly increasing, so positions must be controlled.
$BTC
#ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元
@OKX星球 BTC spot ETF weekly inflows hit a nearly one-year high
The boss has something to say
The Trump administration is planning to launch an overseas stablecoin initiative. The Treasury Department, State Department, and DFC may all be involved, aiming to promote the use of dollar stablecoins overseas through government and private sector cooperation. The plan is still under discussion, with cooperating companies and target markets yet to be determined.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve is soliciting feedback on the payment stablecoin regulatory framework under the GENIUS Act, and bank stablecoins are beginning to enter actual payment and settlement scenarios.
I believe the core of this matter is not about issuing coins, but an extension of dollar hegemony. The more widespread stablecoins become, the greater the global demand for dollars and short-term U.S. Treasury bonds. Tether alone holds $114.96 billion in U.S. Treasuries, and as the scale expands, issuers' appetite for short-term U.S. Treasuries will only grow.
This is a long-term positive for the crypto market. The use cases for USDT and USDC are expanding from trading settlements to cross-border payments and overseas dollar circulation, solidifying the underlying demand for stablecoins. However, there is no direct short-term boost to coin prices. #PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus Big Brother Maji is calling for ETH 3000, now at 2700 still 12% short, can this be trusted?
1. Phenomenon Data
1. $ETH pulled from 2635 to 2698 tonight, once again pushing 2700.
2. $BTC rebounded from 82606 to 83767, the market stabilized simultaneously.
3. $ETH rose 72% in 90 days, already at a high level.
2. Capital Signals
1. Big Brother Maji shouts "ETH love you 3000," sentiment is fully boosted.
2. But Wintermute opened 126 million ETH short positions on Hyperliquid, market makers are shorting.
3. ETF funds dropped from 999 million to 191 million, institutional buying slowed down.
3. Risk Warning
1. 2700 has failed to break three times, short-term pressure is obvious.
2. This week’s CPI plus meeting minutes, macro uncertainty is high. #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #BTC财库优先股融资升温 #ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 APP gapped up to about 322 in early trading, then dropped back to about 312 after more than an hour, halving its value for the year—don’t mistake the gap for a reversal.
Closed around 310.75 on Friday, opened about 322.7 this morning, intraday low hit about 308.3, current price about 312.6; this bullish candle has almost completely given back its gains.
It has halved from about 618 to about 312 this year, dropping nearly half; the current price is still below the 50-day moving average at about 341, and far from the 52-week high of about 745.
TTD in the same sector fell about 2% today, MGNI about 1.5%, neither keeping up with this gap up, more like an emotional rebound rather than sector-wide resonance.
I think: a gap up after selling pressure exhaustion is easily mistaken for a bottom-fishing gift, but with the shadows of AI delays and class-action lawsuits still hanging, short-term chasing the rally is not in your favor.
I’ll keep only an observation position for now, not chasing this move; invalidation would be a volume-backed break above the 50-day line at about 341, or a further drop below the yearly low near 297.5.
Do you think this is a bottom-building rebound, or a dead-cat bounce after a halving? #本周迎非农与PCE关键数据 #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件 $TTD $MGNI $APP $BTC is repeating a pattern we've seen before.
Losing the weekly 200 EMA, building a base, and now reclaiming it.
The same type of structure we saw when breaking out from the 2022 bottom.
If $69K continues to hold as support, I will consider this another major cycle transition phase.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek
#BTCETFInflowsHit1YHigh The demand from those willing to pay Gas and those willing to buy ETH are two different needs.
An on-chain operation requires resource costs, but users preparing a small amount of $ETH to complete a task is not the same scale or cycle of demand as investors holding ETH long-term. Mixing the two can lead to overestimating the immediate impact of application growth on spot prices and ignoring other uses of the asset.
Transaction demand can be paid by the application or reduced through fund management to avoid repeated coin purchases. Long-term holdings focus more on security, liquidity, supply mechanisms, and holding costs. There are also staking, collateral, and other demands that place ETH into different economic relationships. Analyzing price requires understanding these different channels.
This makes me more willing to look for evidence of multiple demands improving together. Growth in one use case may only bring a small marginal coin purchase; if settlement activity, collateral use, and long-term holdings all strengthen together, the supply-demand structure is more likely to undergo lasting change. Even so, one must face profit-taking, issuance, and changes in market risk appetite.
My optimism for ETH has never required framing every transfer as investor entry. The network’s job is to provide useful services, and asset pricing is completed by various buyers and sellers together. Clarifying these two layers allows for more patient observation of real growth. A long-term view is not afraid of complex transmission processes but fears reducing complexity to a simple "must rise" statement, then lacking verifiable evidence when the market moves the other way.$BTC is showing that institutional money remains the pillar as the spot ETF attracted about 2.39 billion USD during the week of 9/21–9/25. However, the price has retreated from the 87K range to around 83K, indicating short-term profit-taking pressure. For $SOL, the ETF attracted about 188 million USD, setting a weekly record, showing that capital is expanding into high-beta assets. The scenario to watch: if $BTC holds the base, money may continue to rotate into $SOL; if BTC loses support, altcoins are likely to face strong selling pressure. Priority is to observe price, volume, and ETF before taking action Dull knife cutting flesh! Retail investors catch flying knives, why does the main force delay the rally?
1. Market Status: Trend Break, Volume-less Decline
① Both the 4-hour BTC and ETH charts have broken key trend lines, showing a technical breakdown and downward trend, with the market extremely weak.
② Active buy and sell volumes have shrunk drastically, trading volume is like dead water with slight ripples, volume-less decline is most tormenting, a typical dull knife cutting flesh.
2. Capital Game: Leverage Retreat, Retail Investors Catch Flying Knives Against the Trend
① Open interest has been continuously falling from highs, funding rates are close to zero, previous long leverage has basically cleared out, the market is entering the final stage of deflation.
② Danger signals emerge: the long-short ratio rises instead of falling during the decline, retail long positions continue to increase. This means retail investors are bottom-fishing against the trend, catching flying knives, and the main force will not give up easily, most likely using a final drop to break retail investors' psychological defenses.
3. Macro Concerns: Liquidity Crisis and Delayed Rate Cuts
① US Treasury yields remain high, macro liquidity is extremely scarce, risk-free rates suppress risk asset valuations.
② Without incremental funds, the market can only rely on brutal stock competition to clear floating chips, any rebound is easily stifled.
Core Summary:
The market is undergoing the darkest and most brutal washout. Institutions are watching, whales are selling, retail investors are blindly bottom-fishing. Under volume-less decline, do not try to guess the exact bottom. Be sure to put away greedy bottom-fishing, keep light positions, and respect the market. Endure this period of liquidity drought and emotional freezing point; when the main force completes the final chip cleansing, that will be the true breakout moment.
$BTC $ETH $XAU
The overall trend favors bears, don't be fooled by small rebounds! Short at 4150, stop at 4139, 11 points! Luodai 3200 dollars! $SOL /USDT 1H bearish retest
SOL is trading under MA5, MA10 and MA20 after losing the 120 area. Immediate support sits at 118.74, so the better risk comes from waiting for price to retest broken structure.
Entry: 119.20–119.80 short
SL: 120.70
TP1: 118.74
TP2: 118.14
TP3: 117.30
The bearish view fails if SOL firmly reclaims 120.64.
Educational only, not financial advice.
#PCEAndPayrollsWeek #MicronEarningsAhead #HormuzTermsInFocus