After the Iranian Foreign Minister signaled a de-escalation in dialogue, mediators stepped in to handle communication between the US and Iran. In fact, for both the US and Iran, as long as the official channels have not completely closed the dialogue window, there will be some chance for a turnaround in the situation.
However, the actual flow data of the Strait of Hormuz may become one of the main reasons for Trump's tough stance.
According to Reuters, based on the assessment by the vessel tracking agency Kpler, Middle Eastern energy output in September has already recovered to 12.8 million barrels per day. Although this is still below the pre-war daily output of 18 million barrels, it is a significant improvement from the previous low point of 6 million barrels per day.
This data is doubly verified by Reuters and Kpler, making it highly credible. If this is indeed the case, then Trump's tough attitude may be backed by this data.
With US-Iran negotiations currently tense, if Middle Eastern energy output recovers, it would indeed harden Trump's stance, which is unfavorable to the current US-Iran dialogue.
However, it should be noted that the news of improved energy output came at noon, but Brent crude did not show a significant decline at that time. It was only after news emerged that intermediaries were conveying messages between the US and Iran that energy prices noticeably fell.
Clearly, regarding the current US-Iran situation, the market's reliance on and pricing based on actual data is not obvious; the focus remains more on the state of US-Iran negotiations! #美伊继续磋商霍尔木兹开放条件
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