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Looking at ETF capital flows, the date must always be considered together with the amount. On September 30, BTC and ETH spot ETFs did indeed experience simultaneous outflows, but Farside's complete records show that on October 1, BTC had already recovered with a net inflow of about $103 million, while ETH continued to see outflows. The table for October 2 still has products not updated, so partial totals cannot yet be taken as the final result.
What makes me cautious this time is how easily we turn a single capital snapshot into a story of ongoing events. Today we say institutions are retreating, tomorrow we say they are returning, but the actual capital may just be fluctuating back and forth, while the explanations remain very certain every day.
I prefer to treat ETF data as a record with a time range. It can answer how much net subscription occurred on a certain day; it cannot answer how long this money is intended to be held or whether it is the same group of people buying and selling. No matter how beautiful the chart, it cannot testify for missing information.
BTC's recovery of inflows and ETH's continued outflows also indicate that the two cannot be summarized by a single "institutional attitude." Fund clients buy different assets and may not be making the same kind of allocation.
It's fine to talk about capital cooling off now, but the duration must be clearly stated. Especially when data is not yet fully reported, prematurely announcing a direction often only leads to having to make supplementary explanations later. Rather than focusing on trending topics to label the market, I would rather wait for a more complete daily report.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. This report certainly puts a damper on further rate hikes, but to directly declare that the U.S. economy has collapsed seems too hasty.
There is a detail in the BLS report that is easy to overlook: the unemployment rate has been fluctuating within a relatively narrow range since March, and the labor force participation rate has not changed significantly. Weak job growth is still quite distant from a sudden surge in unemployment. It now seems more like companies lack the motivation to expand hiring, and the economy is not yet bad enough to force them into widespread layoffs.
This situation is actually quite awkward for the market. Everyone hopes for weaker data to reduce Fed rate hikes; but if the data is too weak, corporate income and consumption will suffer. The outcome we want—cooling employment without really hurting the economy—is not an easy balance to achieve.
My assessment of this data is that more solid reasons are needed to continue raising rates, but it’s too early to celebrate rate cuts. If inflation refuses to fall and employment remains weak, policy will become much more difficult than it is now.
Crypto prices can first trade on the expectation of fewer rate hikes, but don’t treat all bad economic news as good news for yourself. Behind the employment report are income and consumption, which will sooner or later affect risk assets. Skipping one rate hike for now is a relief; entering a loosening cycle immediately is not something we can say yet.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Short sellers ran first, the market followed later
The nonfarm payroll data hasn't appeared yet, but the shorts have already withdrawn. They fled faster than the data release, more decisively than stop-loss orders.
Market sentiment is shifting gears: previously, trading was dominated by rate hikes and high interest rates, leaving everyone disillusioned; now, with risk appetite warming up, short positions are as fragile as paper—either forcibly liquidated or scared into closing themselves.
When BTC lifts its head, ETH follows suit. High Beta altcoins like ZEC are even more extreme, outperforming the broader market during the short squeeze phase. BTC rises 5%, altcoins surge to a degree that makes you question reality. ETH’s elasticity is naturally greater than BTC’s; when BTC breaks key resistance, ETH is like a compressed spring, and ZEC is a spring fitted with a rocket.
The key now is not guessing how high ZEC can fly, but watching the transmission chain: BTC breaks out → ETH follows → sentiment warms → shorts stop out → leverage chases the rally. Once linked, it’s not just a rebound; it’s a short squeeze. Shorts? No, it’s fuel.
What shorts fear most isn’t the rise itself, but that the rise forces them to buy back their own short positions. Buy, and you add fuel to the market; don’t buy, and you keep getting lifted.
The market never follows the script. When a trend truly starts, the first thing to disappear isn’t opportunity, but the margin for error on contrarian positions.
Just venting, don’t get carried away.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 📉 Current Market Situation:
$USELESS's recent pullback is indeed fierce, with a 24-hour drop exceeding 10%, and the price falling from 0.259 down to around 0.222. Looking at the 5-minute candlestick chart, it is currently in a phase of sideways consolidation after a sharp decline. Although the moving average system is still in a bearish alignment, the short-term downward momentum seems to be weakening, forming a small platform.
📊 Hidden Risks Behind the Data:
But I glanced at the depth data (Figure 2) and found an interesting phenomenon: in the contract long-short position ratio, the short accounts proportion is as high as 64.95%, while the long accounts only make up 35.05%.
What does this mean? It means that retail sentiment in the market is extremely pessimistic now, with almost everyone bearish and shorting. In the contract market, when everyone is on one side of the boat, it is often the most dangerous time. The main force is very likely to use this "consensus expectation" to launch a short-term violent pump (short squeeze), wiping out these crowded short stop-loss orders before the real decline begins.
🧠 My Strategy: Stay Calm and Wait for the "Bull Trap"
Based on this judgment, I absolutely will not chase shorts now. Opening shorts directly at this level (0.222) is not cost-effective in terms of risk-reward and is more likely to become fuel for the main force's pump.
My plan is very clear:
Patiently wait for a rebound: I will watch the market closely and wait for a rebound. Ideally, this rebound can slightly break through the short-term resistance zone (for example, the 0.230-0.235 range), creating a false impression of "stopping the fall and recovering" #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%
Employment data was weaker than expected, and the market's first reaction was not to worry about the economy, but to breathe a sigh of relief.
Poor data means less pressure for continued monetary tightening, and money is more willing to flow into risk assets. Tech stocks led the charge, with the Nasdaq hitting a record high intraday, and the S&P and Dow rising for two consecutive days.
But on the other hand, it was not calm: US Treasuries were sold off again, yields formed a V-shape intraday, crude oil plunged due to the G7's planned reserve release, and gold and silver declined throughout the week.
The significance of this combination for $BTC is that its current rhythm is tightly linked to macro liquidity— as long as the market believes interest rates have peaked, funds are willing to allocate more to high-volatility assets.
Whether this asset can hold onto this wave of sentiment depends not on daily price changes, but on two things: whether US Treasury yields will push back up, and whether upcoming employment and inflation data will overturn the logic that "weak data is good news."
If yields continue to rise and funds flow back into bonds, risk asset sentiment will cool down first.
So right now, it feels more like expectations are driving the market rather than fundamentals actually improving. 947,000% This number is reasonable, based on the IPO price of $12 in January 1999.
After multiple stock splits, the adjusted price is about $0.04, rising to the current $233.95, the increase is indeed on this scale.
But the statement "Investing 10,000 in 2008 turned into 16 million" depends on the exact purchase date.
In June 2008, the adjusted price was about $0.47, turning 10,000 into 4.98 million.
In December 2008, it dropped to around $0.20, turning 10,000 into 11.7 million.10.3 BTC layout idea
$ETH
Entry range: around 2670–2690, buy in batches
Stop loss: 2640
Take profit: First target: 2710; Second target: 2750
BTC current price: 2679.92
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
BTC dipped to a low of 2650.88, with clear capital support below, price oscillated upward, MACD golden cross signal appeared, short-term bullish momentum is recovering, rebound momentum is better than ETH. This is a recovery phase after overselling, short-term moving averages are turning upward, we focus on observing the strength of support levels.I revised the original text to better reflect the style of professional crypto market news and changed the unconfirmed "data manipulation is a strategy" to a more cautious market interpretation. The September nonfarm payrolls indeed showed an increase of only 29,000 jobs, with a combined downward revision of 60,000 jobs for July and August; July was revised from +21,000 to -10,000.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Writing
$BTC nonfarm payrolls landed, first breaking the range, then quickly retreating, with short-term bulls and bears once again engaging in a "two-way harvest."
Last night, the US September nonfarm payroll data was released, showing an increase of only 29,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of about 84,000 to 90,000. More notably, July's data was revised from +21,000 to -10,000, and August's from 162,000 down to 133,000, a total downward revision of 60,000 jobs for the first two months. The cooling signal in the labor market is more evident than just looking at September's new job numbers alone.
After the announcement, $BTC once surged strongly past the consolidation range but then quickly pulled back, with the 24-hour total network liquidation volume exceeding $570 million at one point. The market first rallied and then reversed, making it easy for both long and short positions to be swept away by rapid fluctuations.
On the macro level, the weak employment data has renewed market discussions about a potential shift in future monetary policy. Employment growth is slowing, the unemployment rate has risen to 4.2%, while wage growth remains moderate. This means the market is now focusing not only on whether interest rates will be cut but also on how the Federal Reserve will rebalance between employment and inflation going forward.
Capital flows have also shown clear divergence:
🔹 BTC $BTC
$ETH
The day before yesterday I said, build your position slowly, don’t rush in.
Last night BTC tried to break through 87k but then fell back into the range. From the candlestick chart, even if BTC drops to 80k and then rebounds, the structure still shows an upward trend.
My previous view hasn’t changed: every pullback is a buying opportunity. Continue building positions in quality projects, but don’t trade excessively and lose money.
In the past few weeks, many people have lost half of the one million dollars they earned. I’m basically safe because I bottomed out early at 60k. When the price reached 80k, I didn’t add more risk, just took some profits and then continued holding the positions built at 60k $TRUMP Dinner Market Review: Event-Driven Pulse, Don't Mistake Good News for a Reversal
Last night on OKX, $TRUMP experienced a typical "news-driven pump, fundamentals contradict" market move. After the dinner announcement, the price surged from around 2.05 to 2.25, up about 10%, but failed to hold and quickly fell back below 2.10. It is currently struggling in the 2.12–2.25 resistance zone.
Pump Logic: Trump will hold the third holder dinner on November 22 at the Washington National Golf Club. The top 185 holders are invited, with the top 29 receiving VIP treatment. The news is topical, and short-term funds are leveraging this for an emotional pulse.
Why can't it sustain the rise? Three major drawbacks: 1) Dinner eligibility is locked as of November 12, so the real holding incentive window is only one month, with no new narrative afterward; 2) About 900,000 tokens unlock daily, creating structural selling pressure that a single dinner event cannot offset; 3) Technically, the MACD is bearish, and the 2.12–2.25 range has been repeatedly confirmed as strong resistance.
Trading Strategy: The 2.12–2.25 zone above is a clear supply area, making chasing the rally low in cost-effectiveness. If the surge volume shrinks, consider light short positions with a stop loss above 2.25; the 2.00 level below is short-term psychological support, with a break targeting 1.92–1.82. If volume increases and it stabilizes above 2.25, then consider following the trend with short-term longs. Core principle: Good news-driven pumps are exit windows, not entry windows. Manage position size and set stop losses properly. $TRUMP #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Here's the conclusion first: this market hasn't finished falling yet, don't rush to bottom-fish.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, July data revised down to negative growth, unemployment rate hit 4.2%. This is not just a simple cooling down; the job market is sounding an alarm. Many think bad data is good news, betting the Fed will ease, but today $BTC, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and SOL$SOL are all green, only gold slightly rose. The logic has changed: before, bad data meant bets on rate cuts; now with the employment cliff, the market's first reaction is a hard landing, recession fears outweigh rate cut expectations. Gold's slight rise shows funds are seeking safety.
Looking at ETFs, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs have had net outflows for several days, Coinbase data also shows Bitcoin profit-taking hitting a yearly high, both institutions and retail are exiting. Bitcoin broke below 85,000, next support to watch is 83,000; if that doesn't hold, then 80,000. $ETH Ethereum is weaker, no decent rebound after breaking below 2,700.
When to act? Wait for two signals. First, ETF funds show continuous net inflows again, indicating a shift in institutional sentiment. Second, the market shows volume-driven stabilization, not a low-volume gradual decline. Don't rush to bottom-fish before these two appear.
My strategy is simple: hold a deadweight spot position, unload all short-term leverage. Today, no guessing the bottom, no chasing shorts, wait for recession expectations to be fully priced in. Preserve capital and act only when signals are clear.The most expensive user education in cryptocurrency history is often not bought with money but given away for free. In 2014, a batch of DOGE faucet websites distributed 10 Dogecoins for free to every registered newcomer. This seemingly inconspicuous move became the largest user enlightenment campaign in crypto history.
In fact, the faucet model was not pioneered by DOGE. As early as 2010, Bitcoin core developer Gavin Andresen created the Bitcoin Faucet, where each visitor could claim 5 BTC. But BTC's high unit price and the community's high entry barrier caused the faucet to quickly dry up due to cost issues. DOGE perfectly filled this gap: a low unit price meant the psychological burden of one coin was almost zero, so giving away tens of millions of coins was not painful; the Shiba Inu meme community atmosphere made receiving coins an entertaining activity rather than a serious financial act. Combined, DOGE faucets distributed billions of coins, covering newcomers worldwide.
The business logic behind this is worth a close look. The customer acquisition cost of traditional internet products rises year by year, while DOGE faucets compressed acquisition costs to nearly zero—the gifted coins were almost worthless, but the experience of "owning cryptocurrency for the first time" was priceless. After receiving coins, users naturally learned how to use wallets, how to send transfers, and what addresses are. A whole set of crypto knowledge was internalized through play. Many veteran players recall their entry into the field starting from a certain $DOGE faucet page. The actual data of the SolarCity merger is: Tesla acquired it in an all-stock deal worth about $2.6 billion.
On the day the merger was announced, Tesla's stock price dropped more than 10%, and S&P placed its credit rating on negative watch.
The 5300% figure is most likely a misattribution of Tesla's subsequent long-term gains to the SolarCity acquisition.Weak employment did not directly lead to a one-sided rally. BTC briefly surged to $87,000 after the non-farm payrolls release, then retreated back to around $84,600. The market is no longer trading simply on the premise of “poor employment = easing is good,” but has started to consider another question: Is the U.S. economy cooling faster than expected? Meanwhile, ETF funds continue to clearly favor BTC, ETH funds are still flowing out, and stablecoin supply continues to increase. The current market looks more like: high-level oscillation + BTC dominance + localized capital rotation, rather than a full-on risk-on. 📊 BTC holds $84,000, ETH remains weak As of 09:47 HKT: BTC: $84,626, 24h +0.08% ETH: $2,680.81, 24h -0.70% SOL: $119.35, 24h +0.60% Total crypto market cap: $2.893 trillion, 24h -3.14% BTC dominance: 58.69% Fear and Greed Index: 67 — Greed Previous value was 72. The most obvious change today is not BTC price, but that market sentiment is cooling. BTC is near flat, SOL slightly up, but ETH down, with total market cap performing weaker, while BTC dominance remains high. This means funds have not fully left crypto but are clearly more concentrated in the more liquid top assets. Market structure remains: BTC >10.3 Big BTC
Short position: Rebound touches the 85700-86000 range, short directly
Last night, it dropped straight down from the high of 87200, hitting a low of 83840, a drop of over three thousand points, with shorting pressure fully unleashed. This small rebound now is just a breather after a heavy drop, it hasn't changed the weak trend at all. The rebound up is just giving short sellers an entry point. The 85700-86000 above is a previous consolidation platform and also the resistance zone of this drop. The selling pressure will be heavy here, making it hard to break through effectively. Place a stop loss above 86500 for defense. On the downside, first watch 84200-84000; if it breaks the previous low, expect further decline.
Long position: Buy lightly on pullback to 83900-83700
For those wanting to catch the rebound, don't chase highs. Wait for the price to pull back to the 83900-83700 range and show signs of stopping the fall before lightly trying. Place a stop loss below 83000; if it breaks the previous low effectively, exit decisively, no holding on stubbornly. The upward target is first 84800-85000; take profits at that level, don't get attached. This is just an oversold rebound, not a trend reversal. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Just got off the emergency night shift, and the $INJ curve on the monitor looks like a collapsing ECG—24-hour drop of 5.93%. This is not sinus tachycardia; this is perfusion pressure collapsing.
First diagnose, no resuscitation. The short-term RSI has dropped to 32.2, approaching the critical zone of cardiogenic shock; but the long-term RSI still holds at 49.7, sinus rhythm hasn't collapsed, indicating this is localized myocardial ischemia, not total heart failure. What really makes me frown is the imaging: the short-term Bollinger Bands press the price at the 13% position, with only 0.8% space left to the lower band; the mid-term Bollinger Bands are even more severe—at 2%, only 0.2% away from the lower band. This is not a pullback; this is a stenosis area where a vessel is almost completely occluded.
Reading the ECG further, the lesion is at the 4.76 line. That is the valve opening of supply-demand imbalance and also where I plan to establish extracorporeal circulation. All fluctuations before this point are just preoperative sedation.
My intraoperative plan:
📈 Long:
Entry: 4.76 (current price -3.3%)
Take Profit 1: 5.31 (+8.0%)
Take Profit 2: 5.42 (+10.2%)
Stop Loss: 4.19 (-14.8%)
The first target at 5.31 is the first beat after suturing to restore autonomous circulation; the second target at 5.42 is my expected ejection fraction recovery. As for the stop loss at 4.19—that is the maximum blood loss I allow. Once broken, it means the myocardium has entered irreversible necrosis, and I must immediately close the chest, withdraw, and stop extracorporeal circulation, never lingering on the table.
Anyone who does cardiac surgery knows one thing: the most dangerous thing on the table is hesitation, not bleeding. The 5.93% drop is just a symptom; the vessel occlusion location is the cause. I have already cut open, located, and clamped the proximal end.
The lesion is at this layer, the hemostat is in my hand. As for whether this heart can beat again—the monitor never lies.Good morning, the $GRASS I shorted two days ago has turned green again, currently floating at a 2% loss.
This coin has been really volatile lately, up nearly 40% in 7 days, doubled in 14 days, and up 114% in 30 days. Such a trend is really exhausting to short, with sharp jumps up and down, long and short positions stabbing back and forth.
But I still want to see it drop. $GRASS has surged a bit too aggressively this time, and there’s a token unlock at the end of October. Historically, there tends to be selling pressure before and after unlocks. It’s now moving sideways at a high level, and a big bearish candle could come down at any time.
I’ve set a 20% stop loss, not holding the position stubbornly. If it really falls this time, doubling the money isn’t a dream; if it keeps going up, I’ll just take the loss and leave.
Are there any big players also watching $GRASS? Let’s chat in the comments. Do you think this wave will continue to drop, or have you already exited? #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 BTC spot ETFs are finally seeing renewed inflows, signaling a warming of capital interest.
According to data from Farside and others, the US spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of about $102.7 million on Thursday, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing approximately $195.6 million in a single day, directly reversing the previous day's net outflow of about $148.7 million.
What is even more noteworthy is the overall data for the third quarter.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a cumulative net inflow of about $6.34 billion in Q3, while BTC rose about 40% to 43% during the same period, making it one of the strongest quarters since Q4 2024.
This highlights an important point: this round of BTC price increase is not driven solely by contract leverage; real capital inflows from traditional financial channels remain a key support.
However, we cannot conclude that the market has re-entered a one-sided uptrend just based on a single day of inflows.
What needs to be confirmed is whether ETF net inflows can be sustained and whether BTC prices can form positive feedback from the capital return.
The transmission path is straightforward:
ETF renewed inflows → marginal warming of institutional capital → strengthened BTC spot support → improved market risk appetite → rotation into ETH and high Beta assets.
It is especially important to watch the next few trading days. If BTC ETFs continue to have net inflows and BTC prices remain strong, it indicates that the previous cooling of capital may have been just a short-term adjustment.
Conversely, if the ETF inflow is only a single-day event followed by a return to net outflows, and BTC prices fail to continue rising, then this looks more like a temporary capital replenishment, and$ETH total liquidation across the network is 574 million USD
Long positions liquidated about 330 million USD in 24 hours
Short positions liquidated about 250 million USD in 24 hours
The largest single liquidation was a $BTC position worth 11.7274 million USD
Many people got hit on both long and short sides. Yesterday morning, some positive news was priced in early, then after the non-farm payrolls were announced at night, there was a slight rally. Everyone thought there would be another strong surge after the non-farm announcement
But actually, that wasn’t the case. Last night I checked the profit leaderboard and over 80% of these big players’ positions were long, maybe the momentum was too heavy to push further
There’s still no clear big trend yet. Could it be that we have to wait until the midterm elections in the US to see a direction?ZEC dropped from 1,698 at the end of September to 1,333, down 21% from its peak. People call it a pullback, but everyone is watching the K-line.
▪️ On 9/30, Grayscale Zcash ETF had a single-day net outflow of $30.25 million, the first time since its listing ▪️ During the same period, out of the stolen 387.5 million, about 2,746 ZEC worth approximately $3.9 million were put into its own shielded pool
▪️ This $3.9 million accounts for 1% of the stolen funds and 0.016% of ZEC's market cap
▪️ On 10/1, the overall market rose, but only ZEC fell 6.6% (BTC +1.3%, ETH +0.7%)
The shielded pool is Zcash's only selling point—opponents, amounts, and addresses are all hidden. In September, this pool was still an asset: the Orchard pool had a vulnerability, so developers disabled it and created Ironwood to migrate the entire network, pushing the price from 407 to 1,600.
Two weeks later, it changed identity and became the untraceable segment on-chain. Being untraceable doesn't mean strong technology; it's by design that it can't be traced.
The Grayscale outflow and this issue share the same source. Institutions buy this coin not for the technology but for who they can sell it to. Once shares enter the stolen funds path, their nature changes—from an asset with a story to an asset that needs explanation.
The 21% drop includes sentiment and partly a discount—the discount is for that un-auditable feature.
Would you reconsider this coin because of a $3.9 million stolen fund? $ZEC September's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, but what's more worth dissecting is the revision of the previous two months.
On October 2, the BLS announced: July was revised from an increase of 21,000 to a decrease of 10,000, and August was revised from an increase of 162,000 to an increase of 133,000, a combined downward revision of 60,000 for the two months. September's hourly wages rose by only 0.1% month-over-month. The weakness is not just in one headline number.
However, the unemployment rate is 4.2%, and the BLS still describes it as "little changed." Based on this report alone, turning the cooling employment into a recession, and then into a must-rise for BTC, involves two leaps.
The divergence lies in whether the market will focus more on easing interest rate pressures or weakening demand. If inflation remains sticky going forward, the former explanation will be challenged; if employment continues to be revised downward, the latter risk will have more evidence.
Which do you think has a greater impact on expectations this time: the 29,000 new jobs added or the 60,000 downward revision of the previous two months? It's the weekend, meow, wishing everyone a happy weekend!
$BTC is around 86,000, non-farm payrolls increased by only 29,000, significantly below expectations, and the market has pushed down the October rate hike expectations again. ETF funds are also flowing back, and the sentiment before the weekend is clearly stronger than in the past few days. The key now is still around 87,000; if it can't break through, wait for a pullback to confirm.
$ETH is rebounding along with the market; weak non-farm data and improved ETF funds are both supportive. The previously suppressing rate hike expectations have temporarily eased. The short-term has already pulled up from the low; if 2800 can hold, there is room for further recovery; if it falls back to around 2750, it indicates this wave is still more of a rebound.
#BTC、ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling down capital enthusiasm
$SOL is strengthening to 120; recently, institutional funds and ETF narratives remain the main theme, and on-chain activity is also supporting the fundamentals. SOL has high elasticity; around 125 is a short-term level to watch. If volume increases and it holds steady, there is a chance to continue rising; liquidity is thin over the weekend, so waiting for a pullback is more comfortable.
$OKB's ecosystem and supply-side logic remain unchanged, and the chip structure is relatively stable. After the previous rally, it is now mostly digesting profit-taking. As long as key platforms don't break, the trend hasn't clearly worsened. This position is suitable for waiting for a pullback to support, not for chasing gains after sentiment rises.
$RE is oscillating around 0.5; recently, RWA and reinsurance narratives have regained some capital attention, and the protocol's cumulative revenue growth adds to the fundamentals. However, the current circulation is only about 16%, and there is a new round of unlocking on the 18th, so supply pressure cannot be ignored. If it can hold around 0.5, further recovery can be expected.Big Brother Maji's moves these days have been legendary!
He always manages to precisely escape the peak at high points and boldly enters decisively at low points.
His position size fluctuates repeatedly between 141 million and 165 million.
This wave rhythm is really quite valuable for reference, let's review it.
$BTC: Initially slightly down with 536 coins, then decisively reduced to 369 coins to successfully escape the peak.
After the market rose, he aggressively added back to 546 coins, then reduced again to 405 coins to lock in profits.
Latest position is 390 coins, average price 84,700, liquidation price 71,600, the timing is very precise.
$ETH: Position size fluctuates repeatedly between 32,000 and 38,000 coins.
Previously, he precisely reduced positions at a high point with a huge profit of 2.18 million, but recently added back 37,000 coins.
Resulting in floating profit turning into a loss of 380,000, burning 1.18 million in funding fees daily, liquidation price 2,540.
$HYPE: Increased from 200,000 coins to 226,000, reduced at high points to 179,000 to successfully turn losses into gains.
Latest reduced to 169,000 coins, floating loss of 230,000, liquidation price 57.
PUMP: Currently a small loss of 230,000, just a blood bag in mainstream positions, directly skip.
Watching the whales, the core is to perceive the real market sentiment through their position changes.
When they lock in profits at high points, it indicates big money is guarding against risks; when they counter-trend to catch the knife,
it means some funds are probing the bottom, don't blindly copy trades, watch clearly where the money flows.
Follow the trend, capital safety is the most important.
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 278 yuan challenge to 100k｜Live trading record sharing
Full battle record publicly available on homepage
Day 3, doubled
Initial capital: 278 yuan
Current account: 566 yuan, correction: initial capital is 278, $BTC current price 84576
Non-farm data crashed the market, quickly dropping from the high of 87239 to the low of 83826, currently starting a weak recovery. 15-minute RSI back near 57, bearish momentum is somewhat exhausted.
Resistance: 86200‑87200; Support: 83800, strong support at 83000, the rebound is a repair after a big drop and has not completely reversed the weak trend.
$ETH current price 2678
The trend is completely linked to BTC, high point 2777 fell back, lowest hit 2646, following the market rebound.
Resistance: 2730‑2777; strong support near 2600, elasticity follows BTC, no independent trend yet.$MINA is still okay for trading, it pulled down, with unrealized losses plus stop loss, it's still fine for now, holding a light position waiting to go down, this manipulation is really dirty, once the funding fee passes it turns positive, just before paying the funding fee it turns negative, 666In the crypto world of 2026, hackers can no longer be described as "awesome." They are like a well-trained special forces unit—precise and calm.
The most brutal month so far in 2026. Bitget alone contributed about $388 million. The numbers are so huge they numb people, but the lesson behind them is extremely simple: trust no one.
September 25 (2:31 AM UTC+8)
Bitget: $387.5 million
Attackers exploited a zero-day vulnerability in a third-party security product to obtain high-level internal credentials, forged withdrawal instructions, and moved assets worth about $387.5 million from multiple chain hot wallets and warm wallets.
September 15 to 20
D‘CENT Wallet: about $18 million (12.4 million XRP)
Hackers used leaked recovery phrases to steal 12.4 million XRP from over 7,000 wallets, with the impact extending to Bitcoin, Ethereum, TRON, and Stellar networks.
September 6
Liquid Network: about $320 million (4,000 BTC)
Attackers exploited a flaw in the Elements software range proof verification cache to mint about 4,000 L-BTC without asset backing and withdrew them to the Bitcoin network. The attacker claimed to be a "white hat"#, returned 3,400 BTC on September 8, and about 602 BTC are still being recovered. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The US nonfarm payrolls for September came out as a major cold data point.
New jobs added were only 29,000, with an expectation of 85,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. Even worse, the employment data for July and August were both revised downward by a total of 60,000, indicating that the cooling of the US labor market is happening faster than it appears on the surface.
Hourly wages rose 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, showing that wage pressure is also easing. Theoretically, this combination should strengthen market expectations for rate cuts.
But looking at BTC's chart is very interesting: the data caused a rapid spike immediately, briefly touching a high, then within a few hours, all gains were completely given back.
Here we see a clear expectation game:
✅ On one hand, the sharp weakening in employment supports rate cuts, which is positive for risk assets;
❌ On the other hand, the market worries that the economy is cooling too fast, which could turn into recession concerns, suppressing risk appetite.
This is no longer a simple one-way script of "bad data = good for crypto." Going forward, the focus will be on inflation data, which will determine whether the Fed will cut rates moderately or respond passively to economic weakness. The market divergence is already reflected in the spike and subsequent pullback in prices.
What do you think? Is this a false breakout, or will it continue upward after a shakeout? Let's take a look at the Ripple part. After the rise, there was a drop, which shows the importance of taking profits. The view on Ripple remains unchanged, and the price levels are the same. Ripple price levels: ♦ Buy zone: around 1.5. ♦ First take profit: 1.57, second take profit: 1.63. ♦ Add more: 1.45, or a bit lower at 1.4. ♦ Exit: below 1.3. The intraday movement (Taiwan time, OKX perpetual): Last night at the non-farm payroll release, the highest reached 1.556, slightly below the first take profit point at 1.57; after 10 o'clock, it fell with the broader market, hitting a low of 1.4439 during the 2 a.m. hour, dipping below the 1.45 zone but not reaching 1.4. Afterwards, it gradually recovered, at the time of the screenshot around 1.491, then bounced back just below 1.5. Comparing to the price levels: it did not reach the upper 1.57, touched the 1.45 zone below, but did not reach 1.4 or 1.3. The view remains unchanged, price levels the same: buy around 1.5, first take profit at 1.57, second at 1.63, add more at 1.45/1.4, exit below 1.3. Technically, focus on the 1-hour chart. There are three red zones above: the top one from 1.605 to 1.635; the middle from 1.565 to 1.58, marked Strong High; the lowest zone roughly from 1.53 to 1.555, with a red mark at 1.5501, which was last night's high.MAGMA current price is 0.3570, consolidating at a high level, the bullish trend is still intact, but the momentum is clearly lagging. The range from 0.3700 to 0.3800 above is densely packed with short positions on the liquidation map; the main force has the motivation to push up sharply to trigger shorts and then retreat. MACD bearish divergence is becoming more obvious, chasing highs carries great risk. The strong support for this pullback is at 0.3360; breaking it will signal a trend change.
Just finished registering an outsider vehicle at the door, haven't even put the pen back in my pocket.
In terms of operation, take light long positions at the current price, with a position size not exceeding 20%. Enter gradually between 0.3520 and 0.3580, do not chase. The first take-profit target is 0.3700, the second target is 0.3780; reduce positions when reached. Set the stop-loss at 0.3360; exit immediately if broken, do not hold the position. If there is volume stagnation near 0.3800, reverse to short with a stop-loss at 0.3860 and a target of 0.3450.
The core advice is: only take light short-term long positions at this level, strictly avoid heavy chasing of the rally.
$MAGMA
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
@OKX星球 Official websites can also be hijacked; the frontend is not the smart contract itself.
Users typically interact with Ethereum contracts through web pages, but the web domain, hosting servers, script dependencies, and analytics tools can all be attacked. Even if the underlying contract remains unchanged, a replaced frontend can mislead wallets into connecting to incorrect addresses or issuing malicious authorizations. Therefore, "I opened a familiar interface" is not sufficient to prove transaction security. Important operations should verify the domain name, contract address, wallet simulation results, and the signature content on the device; high-value accounts can also use bookmarks, independent RPCs, or multisig processes to reduce single points of failure. Decentralized contracts do not automatically decentralize all entry points. $ETH users truly rely on a complete chain from the interface to the wallet, RPC, contract, and oracle; any replaced link can alter the outcome. When assessing application security, one must consider not only the on-chain code but also the actual gateway the user passes through.
Applications should list key contract addresses in a publicly verifiable list, and users should be wary of counterfeit pages with nearly identical domain names. Familiarity is not a cryptographic proof. Browser bookmarks can only reduce the chance of input errors; they cannot prevent the original site's supply chain from being compromised.What is most noteworthy about NEAR this time is not that the "stolen funds were recovered," but that the AI security system has, for the first time, truly completed the entire chain from attack detection to fund tracking, identifying the responsible party, and asset recovery.
On October 3rd, NEAR co-founder revealed that after NEAR Intents was attacked, the team identified the responsible party and established communication in less than 24 hours, ultimately recovering the stolen funds in full today at 14:30 UTC.
One key role was played by the AI security layer SHIELD deployed on Intents, along with the team's ongoing on-chain investigation and tracking.
My clear impression from this event is that AI is now becoming a "double-edged sword."
Previously, people were more concerned that AI would help hackers automatically find vulnerabilities and improve attack efficiency, but this time NEAR provided a different answer: AI can also be used to monitor abnormal behavior, analyze fund flows, track attack paths, and even help the team quickly identify attackers.
The logic is actually very clear:
AI capability improvement → enhanced security monitoring and fund tracking efficiency → shortened attack response time → improved user asset security → increased trustworthiness of cross-chain infrastructure like Intents.
For NEAR, the significance of this event may be greater than that of an ordinary security incident.
Because NEAR Intents itself involves cross-chain transactions and liquidity coordination, the larger the fund scale, the higher the requirements for security, response speed, and risk control capabilities.
This time, the attack was able to be stopped in the middle of its occurrence... #BTC started from around 83,000, breaking through the previous consolidation range.
The short-term structure is indeed strengthening. After the resistance between 84,000 and 85,000 is absorbed, the upside space opens up.
90K is the next round number level and also one of the targets with higher pricing probability among traders on Kalshi.
However, there are still sell orders stacked between 87,000 and 88,000, so this level needs to be cleared first.
If the breakout is effective, 90K is a reasonable target. If the breakout fails, it will return to the range to continue consolidating.
Let's see if the price can hold above 85,000. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 In my trading rules, the absolute red line that must never be crossed: never casually add to losing positions or hold through losses, strictly control the risk per trade, and stop all trading for the day immediately if the account hits the maximum daily loss.
Usually trading coins like BTC, ETH, and ZEC, which have very different volatilities, ZEC is extremely volatile, with sharp spikes and drops often occurring within minutes, easily causing emotional reactions to short-term market moves. When seeing others post profit screenshots, be clear about the hidden drawdown risks behind them and avoid blindly chasing highs or mimicking high-leverage trades.
Before opening any position, set the stop-loss level in advance, and think through the worst-case loss for that trade and whether you can bear that loss. Keep the overall crypto asset position within a reasonable portion of total capital, never putting all chips on a single coin. Even if BTC and ETH trends look very clear, do not increase leverage or expand positions arbitrarily.
Market opportunities are endless, but once the principal is significantly depleted, even the best market conditions are irrelevant to you. Profit is a byproduct; preserving principal is the primary rule of trading. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $BTC $ETH $ZEC Crypto Circle: Bitcoin Battles at 85,000, ZEC Faces "Hacker Nightmare" Sharp Drop
$BTC is fiercely contesting the key psychological level of $85,000. On-chain data shows that after breaking through this resistance, liquidity above has significantly decreased, and market attention has shifted to the round numbers of $90,000 and even $100,000. However, around $88,000 is the average cost line for buyers from 18 months to 2 years ago, and some break-even positions may create selling pressure. Whether the bulls can absorb this returning supply will determine if the rebound can continue.
$ETH is currently maintaining range-bound fluctuations near $2,680, with the market awaiting a clear breakout signal. The retail long-to-short ratio is as high as 2.28, with nearly 70% of retail traders betting on the long side. Historically, such an extremely crowded long position is often a strong contrarian signal. In contrast, the whale accounts’ long-to-short ratio is only 1.2, remaining cautious. The market may first clear out over-leveraged retail traders through consolidation before starting a new trend.
$ZEC has sharply retraced 21% from the high of $1,698 to around $1,320. Behind this decline is a triple pressure: Grayscale ETF outflows exceeding $30 million in a single day; although the RSI indicator has fallen back to the neutral zone at 50, the ADX trend strength remains high at 52, indicating that the previously formed strong trend structure has not yet completely collapsed.
$SOL price is fluctuating around $119, with the most notable signal being the MACD indicator fully returning to zero, meaning the bulls and bears have reached a balance point after sustained gains.$AAVE short positions are trapped; the market is not targeting anyone
$AAVE rose from 168 to 187, gaining 9 points in one day.
Some shorted during this period and are floating a 5-point loss.
What does this number mean:
168 to 187 is 19 dollars.
19 divided by 168 is about 11%.
The short position loses the gain percentage, not the price difference.
What actually happened:
In the morning, $BTC rose from 84000 to 86800.
$ETH only recovered from 2700 to 2777, clearly weaker.
$AAVE, however, rose 9 points continuously, exactly opposite to the short direction.
With leverage, a 5-point floating loss will be magnified.
Without stop loss, the loss is more than just the principal ratio.
The more smoothly a coin rises, the easier it is for those shorting it to be forced out first.
Holding the position waiting for a pullback means waiting for the price, not the reason.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 $AAVE $BTC $BP 4-hour chart, I am currently focusing on two supports:
$1.28–1.32: short-term support
$1.20–1.21: core support
Both levels have recently shown clear buying interest.
The resistance near $1.75 above remains the previous high,
Only a true breakout and stabilization above it would reopen the space.
Right now, it looks more like oscillation within a large range.
As long as support holds, the structure remains intact.
$BP ⛰️
This does not constitute investment or trading advice. Real trading record for the 5th month, restarted in May. During May, June, and July, I opened a few positions but barely managed them, with holdings never exceeding 1/50. The real start was at the end of July, deciding that since I chose this path, I must persist, follow my own discipline, trade on the right side, always maintain reverence for the unknown, protect the principal, and learn to stay out of the market.The monthly opening market trend has appeared again this time.
It was caught the previous two times as well. This time #BTC pulled up near the opening, swept the high point, with a range of about 4%.
But sweeping the high does not mean it has stabilized.
If the price just touched it and then fell back, it remains in the original range.
True confirmation requires seeing a close above the high point and holding it.
Right now, it’s still unclear whether this is a breakout or another fake move.
My bias is toward the bullish side, but the possibility of range-bound oscillation exists.
Be cautious and don’t be greedy for this 4%.#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
US Treasury yields are once again stirring global risk assets. The 10-year Treasury yield surged to 5.34%, hitting the highest point since 2002. Even though it later retreated to around 5.2%, the reality of persistently high long-term financing costs remains unchanged, which is the core constraint suppressing the crypto market's rebound potential.
Many traders focus on the PCE inflation data, believing that cooling inflation could signal the start of a bull market. But the reality is harsh; the positive impact from the PCE data only lasts a few hours before fading. The market has finally realized that short-term easing of inflation cannot reverse the broader environment of sustained high interest rates.
The US Treasury has conducted $6 billion in medium- and long-term bond buybacks, and the Federal Reserve has optimized bank leverage rules to improve Treasury liquidity. These actions are liquidity patches, not signals of easing. Such stopgap adjustments are unlikely to quickly lower long-term yields.
For BTC, long-term US Treasury yields are like the Sword of Damocles hanging overhead. When risk-free returns remain high, capital naturally avoids high-risk assets like crypto. Short-term rebound pulses are mostly oversold recoveries.
Don't be fooled by single-day price swings. As long as long-term interest rate pressure does not substantially ease, the market will struggle to sustain a smooth, one-sided rally. The key focus going forward is the sustained trend of US Treasuries, which will determine whether this rebound marks the start of a reversal or just another bull trap. #美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解
The 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.34%, hitting a new high since 2002, while the 30-year yield reached 5.68%. Even the 30-year US mortgage rate climbed above 7.28%.
Many believe that positive PCE data would directly drive BTC upward, but in reality, the positive effect lasts only a few hours. The core factor truly suppressing risk asset pricing remains the high long-term US Treasury yields.
Although market expectations for further Fed rate hikes have cooled and Treasury yields have retreated from their peaks, with the 10-year yield around 5.2%, the pattern of persistently high long-term financing costs has not fundamentally changed.
The US Treasury implemented a $6 billion buyback of 10–20 year bonds as part of an established liquidity support plan; Bowman also mentioned adjustments to bank leverage capital rules and increased dealer holdings of US Treasuries, aiming to improve Treasury market liquidity.
These measures are primarily to prevent a collapse in Treasury market liquidity, not to directly lower long-term rates. In a high interest rate environment, valuations of risk assets like Bitcoin will continue to be under pressure. As long as long-term yields do not show a sustained downward trend, it will be difficult for the market to experience a sustained large-scale rally. Capital will continue to weigh the returns of holding risk-free US Treasuries against the risk premium of crypto assets.The SEC has approved 3x leveraged BTC and ETH ETPs, which looks like a short-term positive but is actually more about adding new leverage tools to the market. These products aim to provide 3 times the daily returns of BTC and ETH. If the underlying asset rises 1% in a day, theoretically the product rises 3%; if the underlying asset falls 1%, the product may also fall 3%. However, it is important to note that the 3x ETP tracks daily performance, not a simple amplification of long-term returns. In a high volatility environment, compounding and path dependency can significantly amplify deviations, and it is even possible for BTC to rise while the 3x product underperforms expectations over the long term. Therefore, the core significance this time is not directly bringing spot buying pressure to BTC, but making it easier for traditional securities accounts to participate in high-leverage crypto trading. The transmission path is clear: 3x ETP approval → lower trading threshold for traditional funds → increased BTC and ETH leveraged capital → amplified volatility → strengthened trend market. When prices rise, leveraged products may further amplify chasing momentum; but if BTC turns down, the inverse volatility will also be amplified. Especially given that spot ETF funds for BTC and ETH have already been flowing out simultaneously, this news needs to be viewed with distinction. It adds trading tools but does not mean institutional spot funds will immediately flow back. The short-term focus is on three indicators: ETF fund flows, 3x ETP trading volume, and BTC spot price. If the 3x ETP launches with active trading and BTC spot continues to receive capital support, it indicates new risk appetite entering the market; if only the leverage product's popularity rises, spot BTC 84648, ETH 2679, currently stabilizing around 84600 catching a breath. ETH is still weak, stuck at 2679, 2700 is unreachable, the problem of ETH following the rise but not the fall hasn't changed.
I glanced at the order book, BTC has support at 84300-84500, but buying pressure isn't strong; selling pressure piles up at 85000-85500. Volume has shrunk significantly compared to the surge, indicating last night's sharp drop washed out most panic sellers, leaving mostly those holding on and bottom-fishers. ETH is even clearer, supported at 2650-2670, pressured at 2700-2720, stuck in a dilemma between the two.
Key levels I marked:
BTC: Support 83800-84000, break below targets 83000-83200; resistance 85000-85500, failure to rebound means weakness.
$ETH: Support 2650-2670, break below targets 2620; resistance 2700-2720, failure to break means rebound.
My operation: I haven't re-entered after reducing position at 86800 last night. If BTC pulls back near 84000 with reduced volume and stops falling, I'll lightly buy in with stop loss below 83500; if it directly surges to 85500 without volume, I'll continue reducing. If ETH holds above 2700, I'll hold; if it can't break through, I'll reduce.$CAP surged then pulled back, with a 24-hour retracement exceeding 12.40%, and the daily chart showing a long upper shadow candlestick. After the previous surge, selling pressure was concentratedly released, with trading volume expanding simultaneously.
Looking at the whale sample data: 105 long positions with an average entry price of 0.0558348, a profit ratio of 42.85%, early entry accounts still have floating profits, indicating possible profit-taking; 100 short positions with an average entry price of 0.0690842, a profit ratio of 37.00%, showing clear divergence between bulls and bears.
As a newly listed asset, it inherently has very high volatility. The long upper shadow indicates strong resistance above, so do not rush to enter and speculate on a rebound just because of the pullback.
Offensive position: 0.0810, Defensive position: 0.0662.
⚠️ Traders must control their position sizes carefully, be cautious! Let's take a look at the Bitcoin section. After the rise, there was a drop, which is what I've been emphasizing all along—the importance of taking profits. Missing the opportunity to take profits now makes things a bit awkward. In summary, my view remains unchanged, and the price levels are the same. Bitcoin price levels (same as before, for reference): » Original planned long position zone: 83,000 to 83,500. » Original planned target: 86,000. » Original planned add-on: 81,000. » Original planned stop loss: 78,000. » The previous article said to take profits and exit when possible; this article also has no new entry suggestions. Reviewing the price movement over the past day (Taiwan time, OKX perpetual): Yesterday at noon, it surged past 86,000; at 8:30 PM when the non-farm payrolls were released, the high reached 87,239; then it started to decline, around 10:30 PM it lost the 86,000 level, after 1 AM it fell below 85,000, and during the 2 AM hour the low hit 83,826.4, which was the low point of this pullback. Afterwards, it gradually stabilized, mostly between 84,400 and 84,700 in the morning, around 84,617 at the time of the screenshot. From the high to the low, it dropped about 3,400 points. Those who took profits above 86,000 and those who didn't are now in very different situations; this is why taking profits is important. In summary, my view remains unchanged, and the price levels are the same. Technically, looking at the 1-hour chart. The red zone above is around $ZEC surged then pulled back, with 1355 becoming a key resistance level
On October 2, $ZEC experienced a typical surge and pullback pattern, with the 1355 USD area quickly shifting from intraday support to overhead resistance, becoming a dividing line for bulls and bears.
Market data shows that on the day, ZEC opened at 1335.58 USD, reached a high of 1412.45 USD, dropped to a low of 1271.40 USD, and closed down at 1301.47 USD, a decline of 2.57%, but with a volatility as high as 10.56%. The long upper shadow with increased volume clearly indicates heavy selling pressure above 1355.
From a technical perspective, 1355 is exactly at the intersection of a previous dense trading zone and a descending trendline. Price attempts to break above this level were repeatedly rejected, failing to hold, leaving long upper shadows. This officially turned 1355 from a support level into a resistance level. In the short term, as long as bulls cannot reclaim 1355 with volume, the upside rebound space will be significantly suppressed, and the market is likely to remain weak and volatile.
From a trading standpoint, 1355 can be seen as the bull-bear dividing line: if it can hold above and stabilize, the market may retest 1412 and even 1450; if the rebound falters and it falls below again, focus should shift to the support at 1271. Currently, with increased volatility and moderate volume, chasing highs in the short term should be approached cautiously. #ZEC再创本轮新高，逼近1700美元 Capital Mass Exodus! Institutions Abandon Ethereum to Support Bitcoin, Who Can Escape the Leverage Liquidation Storm?
1. Capital Flow Split: Institutions Favor One Over the Other
① Bitcoin ETF sees a single-day net inflow exceeding $100 million, reversing the previous day's outflow trend, showing strong institutional support and clear capital return.
② Ethereum ETF suffers abandonment with nearly $120 million net outflow over three consecutive trading days, severely lacking incremental buying, greatly weakening support.
2. Liquidations and Leverage: Ethereum Takes a Heavy Beating
① Ethereum long liquidations in 24 hours reach $329 million, with forced deleveraging extremely brutal. Long positions remain crowded but powerless to mount a counterattack.
② Bitcoin leverage funds are moderate, but if it continues to stagnate below key resistance levels, squeeze risks could ignite anytime, amplifying short-term volatility.
3. Macro and Ecosystem: Bitter Cold Wind
① Middle East clouds gather, high oil prices intensify stagflation concerns. US Treasury yields remain elevated, firmly suppressing risk asset valuations.
② Ethereum ecosystem suffers heavy blows: validator exits hit a yearly high, L2 projects shut down, staking security incidents shake confidence. Bitcoin dominance soars to 59%, funds cluster for safety.
Core Summary:
Institutions vote with their feet, capital concentrates on Bitcoin. Ethereum faces triple blows of capital outflow, ecosystem pain, and leverage liquidations. Under geopolitical and stagflation shadows, the market is extremely fragile. Abandon one-sided fantasies, strictly control positions, endure the liquidity drought, wait for Bitcoin to stabilize and lead the market, then strike hard again!
$BTC $ETH $HYPE has been showing energy divergence for quite a while, and it can still keep rising? The overall market is probably about to drop. If it's in a downtrend channel, it has already rebounded to the upper edge of the downtrend channel, so the rebound is a shorting opportunity. HYPE's total market cap is 88.9 billion, with a circulating market cap of 22%, nearly 20 billion. The tokens that haven't been unlocked yet currently look like a landmine. I'm not very optimistic about sustained growth going forward. The remaining locked tokens are a landmine. The team unlocks tokens on the 6th of each month, close to 10 million tokens. Early investors + foundation + community pool unlock about 15 million tokens around the 29th of each month.The order book's transaction depth has shrunk ugly, the buy orders are withdrawing faster than anyone else, and all the large pending orders are being pulled away. Although multiple time-frame indicators are heavily oversold now, this is completely disconnected from the price movement; there's not even basic turnover action. This means the main force is playing a low-volume consolidation. Brothers who want to bet on a rebound should think twice. In this kind of exhaustion market, liquidity is the biggest trap. Whoever can't resist reaching out first becomes the fuel for that spike. The system advises everyone to stay on the sidelines, so tie your hands tight. In this market without opposing orders, even glancing more is a loss.
$TAO $RENDER $NEAR 1. The hardest fact: This is real delivery, not like 90% of crypto circle roadmaps that end up as "delays + rephrasing". Studio is one of the few that delivers on time every month: 6/9 release → July alpha (asynchronous multiplayer + 10 templates + Soulslike/Collectathon suite) → 8/12 Beta + Engine v14 (unified SceneNode system, prefab upgraded to first-class object, Agent Nova debuts) → September synchronous multiplayer (4-player competition, lobby, matchmaking, per-match server) → October public release And there is real stuff to play. The official website has launched a Studio game exclusive showcase area, playable directly in the browser: Ricochet Rascals (6-player 3D arena brawl), Arrrpoon, PATCH, Kindred Planet, My Little Marina, Basketball Frenzy, Snowball Battle, Pocket Skatepark. These are not just renderings, but complete playable works. 2. $100 million market cap vs 8 million user base This is the most asymmetric part. The official stock assets are: 8 million users, 25,000 LAND holders, 400 One more thing about $AVGO. If Anthropic really succeeds in IPO in November, $AVGO might be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
$AVGO has provided Anthropic with a 42 billion infrastructure loan, which in turn means Anthropic is the largest customer of $AVGO's core chip design business.
I will continue to dollar-cost average into $AVGO, waiting for Anthropic's successful IPO~