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It's not just one person selling; several forces are moving simultaneously.
In the past week, Bitcoin whales collectively reduced their holdings by about 30,000 coins, valued at approximately $2.52 billion at the time.
But this is a statistical measure, not a specific individual dumping.
During the same period, another set of data shows that whale holdings were overall "basically flat," with significant differences among various tracking tools.$BTC In the next three months, my judgment is straightforward: October will be a time to consolidate and digest the trapped positions, and the main battlefield for this bull market rally will be in the fourth quarter and beyond. The current price is $86,800, just hitting the highest since September 23, but the real tough battle is still ahead.
First, let's look at the fundamentals. BTC surged 43% in Q3, the strongest quarter since Q4 2024, and this rally was driven by real institutional money — spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $6.3 billion in Q3, pulling this year's net flow back into positive territory, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for 80% of that. More importantly, leverage has been cleaned out: futures open interest dropped to 644,000 contracts, the lowest since January this year. Without a bunch of people adding leverage on top, the foundation of this rally is actually stable. Citi just raised their 12-month target from 82,000 to... no, actually up to 113,000, and their model's median year-end estimate is also around 98,000.
But don't get too excited yet, there's a lot of supply overhead. The $84,000–86,500 range holds about 1.39 million BTC, and $88,000–90,000 is another dense supply zone. So October will likely see repeated grinding or even a fake breakdown; only a strong volume-backed break and hold above $87,300 will truly open up space. The next target is $95,000–97,000, and beyond that is the 100,000 mark.
The key to the rhythm lies in macro factors: the Fed meeting on October 28 is the biggest quarterly variable, with the 10-year US Treasury yield above 5.2% and oil prices breaking $100, all weighing on risk appetite. The support at $82,000 is the lifeline. $BTC structure has turned bullish, with the price running close to the upper edge within a narrow range. The 1-hour buy side is dominant, whale movements align with the daily trend, and pullbacks are opportunities to go long with the trend. Enter by placing an order at the Bollinger middle band at 84525.2, which coincides with the recent consolidation pivot and is the most solid position for a pullback catch. The upper target is the resistance wall at 86081.5, and the stop loss is set just below the 20-period swing low at 84375. A break below here indicates the pullback has turned into a breakdown, invalidating the bullish logic. The main risk is that the overall 24-hour trend remains weak, and net active selling in the market is negative. If selling pressure intensifies, it may first sweep downward before rebounding.Soft employment ≠ automatic long positions: wages low for five years, interest rate hikes press down about 20%, growth panic is also lining up
Nonfarm soft, participation rate rises to 61.8%, wages year-on-year about 3% (public reports about the lowest since May 2021) — more like "soft but not collapsing," not an overnight crash. OKX BTC≈84600, ETH≈2680, ZEC≈1319 (ZEC retreated about 4% from the Asian open at around 1372), don't just look at the big coins for color.
My own stance (not a trade call): ① October maintains narrative dominance (publicly about 82%) ≠ immediate full risk appetite; ② weekend range about 83.9–87.2, break below 84,000 reduce risk first; ③ altcoins follow the rise but not the stability, ZEC category chases the color.
Public sources: CNBC / St. Louis Fed nonfarm interpretation, OKX spot.
Poll: A Liquidity narrative dominates first / B Growth panic more real, deleverage first / C Just defend the boundary over the weekend?Made money but feel more anxious than losing money, who understands this feeling?
Brothers, I opened my account and saw that $BCH and $SOL, these two old pals, really made me proud, but also pushed me to the edge of a cliff.
Position update:
BCH: MVP of the whole market! Full 10X leverage, entry at 261.02, mark price 313.40, unrealized profit +326.47U, ROI as high as +167.10%! Position value 1,953.68U, margin 195.37U. SOL: steady and solid! Full 20X leverage, entry at 115.63, mark price 119.03, unrealized profit +179.79U, ROI +57.12%.
$ETH: forever the drag. Full 5X leverage, entry at 2718.24, mark price 2677.44, slight loss -33.17U (-7.62%). $BCH $ETH $SOL
Clearly BCH earned 167%, SOL earned 57%, total unrealized profit over 470U, but I just can’t smile at all! Why? Because the overall margin ratio is stuck at 0.29%!
What does 0.29% mean? As long as the market makes a 0.3% spike, this 470U profit plus principal will instantly evaporate on the spot! No time to react. Having experienced big storms, from deep LTC and BCH traps, to ZEC’s resurrection, to BCH doubling now, I know too well the suffocating feeling of desperately testing the edge of liquidation.
My rational mind keeps pounding: close the position immediately! Take the profit! Pocket this 167% gain!
But the gambler’s mind is screaming: what if BCH surges to 320? What if the big bull market really comes? Wouldn’t it be a huge regret to run now?
I’m really tired of waking up in the middle of the night to check liquidation prices. This 0.29% number is like a knife hanging over my head; no matter how much I earn, it’s just a number on paper until I cash out—it’s all at the mercy of the market.
Brothers, do you think I dare to hold this position overnight tonight? Should I just clear it and sleep well? Please wake me up in the comments!
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#美债收益率频创新高，长期利率压力未缓解 There are indeed traders on Kalshi betting on reaching $92,000 in October, but this target appeared on October 1st, when #BTC was around 86,357, and the four-hour structure remained bullish.
Calling it a "market consensus" is not accurate.
Another contract from the same period shows that traders price the probability of reaching 90,000 this month at about 56%, reaching 87,500 at about 72%, and reaching 100,000 at only 9%.#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat #US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2% Just saw from mid-term intelligence brother: an old address dormant for 15.4 years since May 2011 moved, transferring 20.43 $BTC, about 1.7 million USD,
From early mining earnings of Slush Pool, fees less than 1 dollar, not entering exchanges. The market is shouting Mentougou, Silk Road old coins dumping? Don't get misled.
On-chain view: no deposits, no selling, just transferred into SegWit addresses, like old miners repositioning.
Last night BTC dropped from 87,200 to 85,200, $ETH from 2,777 to 2,690, basically using data to sweep liquidity;
Plus Glassnode said the 85,000 sell wall has been absorbed by buy orders, selling pressure is decreasing, not increasing. Majhi still holds long positions of 33,950 ETH and 409 BTC.
Old coins waking up does not mean selling, hold core positions steady, bullish unchanged, waiting for upward acceleration.Nonfarm payrolls hit +29,000, crypto surged close to 87k then retraced back to 84.6k over the weekend — is the good news fully priced in or just normal digestion?
Confirmed: September nonfarm payrolls only +29,000 (consensus around 84,000–90,000), unemployment rose to 4.2%, monthly wage growth just +0.1%. Public reports show FedWatch holding around 82–83% probability, with rate hike odds down to about 18%. On OKX, BTC≈84600, 24h high about 87238, low about 83884 — bullish pulse pushed price up first, then half was given back over the weekend.
My own stance (not a trade call): ① Don’t treat "touching 87k" as a confirmed breakout, consider the weekend as digestion; ② Watch the range: whether it holds above low 84k, and if daily can reclaim 85.5k; ③ Soft employment is good for liquidity, but don’t forget growth fears — better to have less position than full.
Public sources: CNBC/BLS Nonfarm, CME FedWatch second report, OKX spot.
Poll: A Good news fully priced, wait and see / B Retracement to boundary swing / C Stay flat and avoid trading over weekend? Glassnode says BTC absorbed the major sell wall near USD 85,000, leaving thinner overhead liquidity. This may reduce short-term resistance, but I’ll watch whether BTC holds 85K before judging the breakout.
Please do your own research carefully before making any transactions (DYOR). $BTC
#USNFPDataCools
#USTreasuryYieldsSurge Setting a stop loss does not mean it will be executed
On the first day of October, a $BTC short position lost 6472.
The price rose from 83123 to 87239, up more than 4000 points.
What was the stop loss price:
The stop loss was set at 85400, it should have closed at that price.
But the hand didn’t move, wanting to wait for it to drop back.
Where did it blow up:
The short position bets on a drop, the higher the price rises, the more the loss.
It didn’t close at 85400, and every jump afterward added to the loss.
The 4000 points didn’t happen all at once, it was pushed up step by step.
Once it passed 85400, this position was already out of control.
The stop loss price is just a number you wrote down in advance.
The one who presses the close button is the hand, not that number.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% $BTC I admit, I was really wrong yesterday
Just pure luck.
Went all in with 100x isolated margin,
At night $ETH just shot up for me.
Marked price went up to 2777.7
My stop loss was stuck tightly at 2778.5.
A distance of just 0.8U!
The tip of a needle almost pierced my stop loss line!
At that moment, I really didn’t even dare to breathe hard.
I thought I was going to fall.
But what happened? Fake move! All fake moves!
The manipulator touched 2777.7 then immediately smashed it, crashing all the way down!
Closed my position with profit at 2673.88 in the morning, pocketing +145.88%.
Looking at this green profit, I can’t feel happy at all
Only fear afterward, 100x leverage, just 0.8U away from zero.
This time the manipulator spared my life, but next time?
I really can’t play like this anymore, respect the market, everyone take this as a warning.#BTC、ETH spot ETFs simultaneously see outflows, cooling capital heat
BTC and ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously experiencing outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm.
The market has already given a real signal: both BTC and ETH spot ETFs have shifted from inflows to net outflows.
This is also the key underlying logic behind the market rallying and then retreating after last night's strong non-farm payroll data.
Previously, the market was supported by macro expectations: a cold surprise in non-farm payrolls, easing rate hike expectations, and optimistic market sentiment.
However, institutional funds have already chosen to take profits and withdraw first. Once incremental funds dry up, lacking real money to support, the bullish sentiment cannot sustain prices, leading to a typical profit-taking decline.
Current market status:
1. Institutions are taking phased profits, overall capital enthusiasm is cooling, and long momentum is somewhat exhausted;
2. Macro conditions are currently just "no longer bearish," without easing rate cuts, lacking sustained upward momentum at high levels;
3. The market bids farewell to capital-driven moves and re-enters a technical consolidation and shakeout phase.
Key levels
Resistance:
85000‑85600 short-term pressure
87000‑87500 strong stage top
Support:
82000‑82500 bull lifeline
79500‑80000 deep pullback defense level
Outlook:
With ETFs starting to see outflows, the market tends toward consolidation and shakeout; avoid blindly chasing highs. Most rebounds are repairs, not a new round of reversal.
Watch two things going forward: whether ETF redemptions will continue, and wait for CPI data to ultimately set the direction.
Brothers, what do you think next? Let's discuss in the comments…🔷 Buyback $6B, yield 5.34%
• The US Treasury bought back government bonds worth $6 billion
• 10-year yield: 5.342% (highest since April 2002)
• Investors offered $46.4B, Treasury selected $6B
• Purchased bonds from 2041-2042
• Since August 19: minimum $4B per auction
• Program: September 9 - November 4
• Reasons for increase: deficit, inflation, AI borrowing
• Purchasing Managers' Index: 77.9, oil $91
🧠 Treasury buys back $6B, but yield rises to 5.34%. Pressures BTC. But Cathie Wood: 5%+ = market health
$BTC Hardware wallets can isolate private keys but cannot identify malicious transactions for you.
Hardware wallets isolate private keys and the signing process within a dedicated device, making it difficult for attackers to directly extract keys even if the computer is infected with malware. However, users can still confirm a malicious authorization, incorrect address, or high-risk contract call on the device. Once the signature is valid, the blockchain will execute according to the rules. If the device screen does not display the complete asset, amount, and authorized party, the user is effectively blind signing. Supply chain tampering, recovery processes, and mnemonic phrase management also affect security; purchasing hardware does not equate to zero risk. For holders of $ETH, hardware wallets are best suited to solve the problem of "keys not touching the online environment," while transaction semantics rely on clear signatures, address verification, and independent validation. Security is a multi-layered structure: the device protects the keys, the wallet interprets operations, and the user decides the intent. Any layer that shifts all responsibility to another may leave exploitable gaps.
The real advantage of the device is making it harder for attackers to complete a signature without the user's knowledge; if the user actively confirms everything, the isolated chip can only faithfully execute the wrong decision. Purchase channels, firmware sources, and screen verification together determine whether this layer of isolation is ultimately trustworthy.A significant piece of news:
Tether's USDT, worth 184 billion USD, will "officially return to Bitcoin" this month — the Tether-supported project Utexo has obtained permission to issue USDT on the Bitcoin network.
The practical use is: users can privately transfer USDT, directly swap USDT with BTC, and use Bitcoin as collateral for loans, all without needing to "wrap" Bitcoin.
The key phrase here is "no wrapping."
In the past, to use stablecoins or DeFi on Bitcoin, you usually had to cross-chain wrap BTC into tokens like wBTC — and this "wrapping" step is exactly the part hackers love to attack (many theft incidents have occurred on cross-chain bridges and wrapped assets).
Utexo claims to achieve "direct use without wrapping," which, if true, means bypassing the most vulnerable link in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
An even bigger highlight is **the fact that "USDT is returning to Bitcoin" itself**.
Tether originally (in 2014) issued on Bitcoin's Omni layer, then gradually migrated to Ethereum, Tron, and other chains.
Now, after a full circle, it’s back to BTC, indicating that the Bitcoin ecosystem is regrowing the infrastructure capable of supporting stablecoins and DeFi.$BTC has not broken through the new high of 87300
The non-farm payroll data ultimately turned out to be a false alarm.
After the data was released
All the positive factors have basically been fully absorbed by the market.
The market decline is so smooth
How can one resist shorting in such a situation?
Short position floating profit is 4060.91 $USDT
The return rate has reached 137.31%
The market has already given the answer
Expectations are fulfilled, the rest is up to the trend.
Wishing everyone a happy National Day 🎉 $BTC Today's Crypto Market (October 3, 2026)
Saturday Crypto Circle: BTC holds steady, ETH is weak, AAVE quietly strong. Uptober doesn't rise every day; first shake out the chase buyers before talking.
Today's assessment:
"Uptober" starts without volume: BTC sideways, ETH one level weaker, funds hiding in AAVE/UNI/BNB, small caps start cutting yesterday's chasers.
Macro side: US 10Y ~5.24%, post-weak nonfarm rate cut expectations rebound, dollar rebounds, crypto market is not blindly bullish.
Dark lines:
BTC ETF net inflow at October start (Thursday +102 million), but ETH ETF net outflow for 3 consecutive days → institutions only recognize BTC
On-chain: dormant ETH abnormal movement on 9/30 (age consumed surged to highest since June), not immediate dumping, but old chips are moving
24h total liquidations ~150 million, longs and shorts half and half, not long squeeze, just weekend volume play
Next catalysts: 10/14 Core PCE, 10/9 BTC/ETH options expiry (~1.9 billion), 10/29 FOMC
Trading mantra:
BTC volume breakout above 85k → only then next leg; if can't break, reduce
Support at 83.9k–84k → hold
Break 83.9k / ETH 2.63k → turn weak, deleverage
$BTC $ETH #BTC dropped $2200 in 4 hours, returning to around 84,000, with over 60 million in liquidations.
The speed of this decline is faster than in the past few days, indicating leverage is being released in concentration.
84,000 is a short-term reference level, previously tested.
If it can hold here, it might just be a pullback.
If it continues downward, 80,000 to 82,000 is the next area with support.
The liquidation volume is not particularly large; 60 million is a moderate level in recent volatility.
But the direction is weak, and the decline after being rejected at 87K shows no signs of ending yet.🔻 SHORTS WORLD
🐋 Whales are heavily positioned LONG — but that doesn’t mean price must rise.
$ONE → Long/Short 142.6%
⚠️ Longs under pressure → downside risk if support breaks.
$AKE → Long/Short 318.7%
💰 Profitable longs dominate → profit-taking could trigger a pullback.
$USELESS → Long/Short 236.8%
🔥 Meme volatility is high → crowded longs can become a target for a flush.
🇺🇸 Weak U.S. jobs data is adding another macro variable to crypto volatility.
🎯 Watch support + volume +Let me see, a deep pullback has thrown so many people off the train, scared so many out of their wits.
$ETH smashed down from above 2800, now consolidating sideways around 2690. A slight 0.39% drop in 24 hours, doesn’t look like much? Behind it is a total liquidation of $339 million across the network in the past 24 hours, with $260 million in short positions liquidated, $78.93 million in long positions also liquidated, and Ethereum alone liquidated $91.89 million. This sharp plunge slapped both the bulls chasing highs and the shorts.
But what are institutions doing? Ethereum spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $3.11 billion in Q3, marking the third highest quarterly record ever, with 10 consecutive days of net inflows. BlackRock’s ETHA alone swallowed $83.79 million. In the past week, Ethereum whales increased their holdings by about 60,000 ETH against the trend, worth $162 million. While you were shaken off the train, smart money was down below with open mouths catching chips.
Key levels are crystal clear. Breaking below 2565 means $1.238 billion in long positions waiting to be liquidated below; breaking above 2832 means $1.132 billion in short positions will explode above. At this position, both long and short triggers are set, just waiting for one candlestick to decide who dies first.
Citibank just raised the ETH target price from $2240 to $3028, citing macro improvements and ETF demand recovery. Arthur Hayes is even more aggressive, saying ETH could see $10,000 to $20,000 in this cycle.
The structure isn’t broken, the trend isn’t interrupted. Are you the one washed out, or the one staying on the train waiting for the next stop? If you can’t hold on, get off early. Stablecoin giant Circle is publicly "resisting" Europe's crypto regulatory rules.
Their argument is strong: among the world's 25 largest stablecoins by market cap, only 3 are regulated under MiCA — meaning Europe's rules have a pitifully low "reach," and the biggest stablecoins are actually outside the EU's regulatory scope.
Circle wants to push the EU to amend some of the existing rigid requirements.
The most interesting part of this is that "compliant parties are criticizing the compliance rules."
Intuitively, Circle is the "well-behaved student" who should welcome regulation; but the reality is — when regulatory rules only constrain a few, while most competitors are unregulated, being compliant becomes a competitive disadvantage.
It's like a class where only 3 students submit homework to the strictest standards, while the other 22 casually write theirs and still get high scores; naturally, those 3 will protest.
Behind this is a recurring core contradiction in stablecoin regulation:
"Who is regulated" matters more to the competitive landscape than "how strict the regulation is."
If regulation only covers issuers with an entity in the EU, offshore-issued stablecoins can enjoy freedom while capturing market share.
Circle's demand essentially calls for "rules to be applied equally to everyone" — otherwise, a strange outcome will emerge in the European market: the most compliant products will ironically be the hardest to operate.This short position on SpaceX has finally been fully closed 😮💨 Shorted at 156, fully closed at 145.85, held for about 10 days, with a single contract yield of +491.71%. The floating profit was tossed around a few times earlier, but ending near 146 as planned this time feels really good.
Interestingly, right before and after closing the position, SpaceX actually accomplished something significant: on September 28, Starship's 14th test flight truly entered orbit for the first time and deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites. From a technical progress standpoint, this is definitely positive news.
However, my short position was not based on "the rocket can't fly," but rather on whether the price had already priced in too much of the good news ahead of time. Although this mission successfully reached orbit, there was still an engine failure during the process, and the mission ended earlier than planned; the reasons will need further investigation. Reuters reported that SpaceX's stock price actually dropped about 2% that day.
This actually confirms a point I've always cared about: company progress does not mean the stock price will rise every time. The market is really trading on "whether the results exceed original expectations." If everyone has already priced in the first successful orbit and smooth V3 deployment, then when the achievement is realized, as long as there is no bigger surprise or even a slight flaw, the stock price may not react or may even fall. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% ACE mid-term long position | 3-5x leverage
Position: 1000u divided into 3 batches (40%/35%/25%)
📍 Ambush zones
• First batch 40%: $0.175–0.185 (current price zone + daily EMA21 support)
• Add 35%: $0.155–0.168 (previous low platform + channel lower boundary)
• Deep water 25%: $0.135–0.150 (extreme panic zone + above historical low)
🛡️ Stop loss: $0.125 (daily close below previous low platform, -32%)
🎯 Targets
• TP1: $0.24 (+30%, reduce 40%)
• TP2: $0.32 (+73%, reduce another 35%)
• TP3: $0.45–0.60 (+143%~+224%, clear position)
Core: GameFi narrative warming up + Endurance ecosystem Game2 test progressing, but monthly 2.85 million ACE unlocking (about 1.94% supply) creates continuous selling pressure, need to wait for pullback below $0.17 before buying on dips. Binance Labs endorsement + biweekly burn mechanism provide long-term support, small market cap with high volatility, keep position small $SAND #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% HYPE October 6 unlock has flooded the screen
The calendar shows about 9.92 million tokens, roughly over 800 million USD, the largest single transaction in the entire market in October
But don't just look at the calendar
In the past few months, Labs has actually unstaked about 140,000 to 530,000 tokens per month. This is not even close to 9.92 million
This time it's a bit different
On September 30, Labs unlocked 3.75 million tokens at once, 7 times the monthly average. The co-founder said it was done OTC with institutions, not through the public market. Buyer, price, and lock-up period were not disclosed
——
First look at claims and transfers, not nominal values
"Claimable" far exceeds "actually claimed" has happened before.
OTC delayed the supply, it didn't disappear. The 6th to 7th is still a volatility window, but unlocking is not automatically bearish.
$HYPE The hotter altcoin prices get, the more vigilant you are to be aware of concentrated drawdowns after leveraged accumulation.
On October 1, trader Doctor Profit posted that considering the altcoin market's excessive leverage, spot trading volume reaching four times that of BTC, and clearly rising market sentiment, he chose to take profits on some altcoins. Among them, ONDO sold with a 73% profit, and HBAR and XRP also exited after small profits.
What is even more noteworthy is his short position in BTC. Previously, he had established short positions near $86,200 and set additional short positions in the $86,500 to $89,500 range, expecting BTC to pull back to $79,000. However, he has not fully turned bearish; positions in BTC as well as ETH, CRCL, and COIN remain intact.
I believe the real focus on this move is not his prediction of where BTC will fall, but rather that some traders have already begun actively reducing altcoin risk exposure in a highly leveraged environment.
When funds flow into highly volatile assets, price increases may be accompanied by rapid leverage accumulation. Once BTC weakens, altcoins are often more vulnerable to the dual shocks of declining risk appetite and leveraged liquidations. However, spot trading volume reaching four times that of BTC alone does not alone prove the market has peaked, and trader reductions do not necessarily mean a market reversal.
In the short term, three key signals need to be closely watched: First, whether BTC can hold key support; Second, whether altcoin spot trading volume continues to cool; Third, whether open interest and funding rates fall in tandem.
If BTC weakens and goes shortFloating profits just arrived and are about to fly away again, my mindset is directly tense!
Damn it!
I've been messing around with a small real account until now, currently holding a long position in $ETH, with floating profits of 8.58%.
I caught the chips at the low point in the early morning, and the highest floating profit pulled even higher early on. I was secretly happy thinking I nailed the dip buy during this pullback, planning to hold for a rebound.
Who knew the big coin $BTC rebound was weak, it couldn't push past 84688, just grinding in place. The volume to push up was totally insufficient, and the market's long-short ratio shows bears already occupy 70%.
It just keeps tugging back and forth slightly, slowly swallowing back the profits I made.
This kind of market is the most frustrating now: not enough funds to break upward, and no new lows smashed downward yet. Holding the pattern means profits can be given back anytime; pocketing gains and running risks missing a direct surge.
Many people like me have fallen in this kind of choppy market. The big picture is clear, but we die in the back-and-forth shakeouts.
The big coin is stuck jumping sideways around 84500, and the second coin ETH completely follows the big coin's rhythm, unable to form an independent trend, showing no temper at all.
#BTCHighLevelPullbackChop #ETHFollowsMarketFluctuation $BTC $ETH2026.10.3 Market continues intense dual-sided volatility with BTC/ETH/XAU analysis. Tonight, 580 million dollars vanished into thin air, 110,452 people went bankrupt to zero, with both the amount and number of volatile trades increasing. Especially, the number of people tripled, increasing by 65%, showing many impulsive traders in the market. One piece of news, one indicator anomaly, and a swarm rushes in, then the manipulative whales turn the tables and plunder, it’s basically free money; Are you the impulsive one? Haven't you learned position management yet? BTC support/resistance levels: 87550/85150/78425/75475. After two consecutive days of slight bullish strength, the market surged to 87250 last night. Although it has fallen back below 85150 now, the 1h/2h/4h charts still maintain a slightly bullish trend; ETH support/resistance levels: 2750/2525/2400, following BTC’s trend; XAU surged to around 4220 last night, with an immediate recommendation to reduce positions again. You can hold a small remaining position; wait for Monday’s opportunity to see if it breaks below 4100 to test 4065 or even spike to 4015; if it doesn’t break, then above 4100 is basically stable, give the main force some time to decide; no trading over the weekend; Operation suggestions do not constitute any investment advice: BNB last night’s orders executed strategy, either loss or profit. For other orders in hand that hit breakeven, do not enter new positions, wait quietly for new low-level opportunities. It is recommended to keep no more than 2 contract orders in hand (orders without breakeven stop-loss set are counted; those with breakeven stop-loss set are not). No rush to place spot orders, set good replenishment levels.Just in September, Coinbase launched an IPO new share subscription entrance, reached a stablecoin partnership with Citi, provided access capabilities to over 1,000 community banks, and even started AI agent stock trading.
This list only makes sense when read together—it does not describe four isolated functions, but four touchpoints of the same strategy.
IPO new share subscription = bringing securities business in;
Citi stablecoin = connecting traditional bank settlements;
1,000 community banks = providing an "encrypted backend" for the offline banking system;
AI agent stock trading = making machines the main trading entity.
These four things point to the same goal: transforming Coinbase from a "cryptocurrency exchange" into a "new generation comprehensive financial infrastructure."
North Dakota banks issuing stablecoins choose Solana, tokenized stocks aim to conquer long-term holders, and traditional institutions become the main force of on-chain adoption—all talk about the same thing:
The boundary between crypto and traditional finance is being actively dismantled, and the parties tearing down the walls are large institutions, not retail investors.
But we must stay clear-headed: behind this are compliance costs, licensing battles, and lengthy regulatory communications—pushing securities, banking, stablecoins, and AI simultaneously relies not on technological superiority, but on the trust accumulated within the regulatory system. This is the hardest part of Coinbase to replicate.#US troops stationed in Iraq#
#US Treasury yields frequently hit new highs, long-term interest rate pressure remains unresolved The more realistic tails are threefold:
First, pro-Iran militias are not disarming; the "non-state weapons" roadmap is delayed until June 30, 2027, and groups like the Hezbollah Brigades do not recognize the government's timetable at all;
Second, the Kurdish region is panicking; originally, the US military was an air defense shield, but now the skies over Erbil are open;
Third, the US has not truly left—training, intelligence, petrodollars in the New York Fed, the new consulate in Erbil, all remain. US officials themselves say "re-deployment is not ruled out."
So this withdrawal is not an imperial exit but a shift from "soldier garrison" to "leveraged garrison":
Iraq gains nominal sovereignty with the flag, the US retains the reins in energy and finance, Iran happily accepts strategic space, and ISIS remnants await the next chaos to sprout.
The oldest script in the Middle East has never been "end of war," but rather—
Foreigners leave, leaving a mess for you to handle; when chaos erupts, they come back to negotiate terms. Nonfarm payroll data unexpectedly released 📊
US nonfarm payrolls for September increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, employment clearly weakened, and expectations for an October rate hike have significantly cooled.
However, US Treasury yields and the dollar remain relatively strong; weak employment ≠ immediate rate cuts, CPI is the key.
Market: BTC stands near 87,000, ETH and SOL follow with rebounds, SOL showing the best elasticity.
The market is only mildly recovering, no big splash. High interest rate pressure remains, and based on this single nonfarm report, a full bull market cannot yet be confirmed. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Don't argue about which public blockchain is the strongest. Look at the hackers' choice: various stolen tokens are ultimately all converted into Ethereum. The ability to cross-chain handle large assets and maximize liquidity—that's ETH's hard power. $ETH The 500u challenge to 10,000u, the pullback from yesterday has already been earned back, currently over 900u! The crazy surge of BTC and ETH yesterday and the positive non-farm payroll data were all scripted! But why were BTC and ETH suppressed without breaking the previous highs? I personally believe it was profit-taking after the positive news was realized. Also, the most important and noteworthy point is that after the non-farm payroll data was released, US Treasury yields first fell, then rose again. Plus, the Middle East conflict escalated again. So I took a short position. I want to say that besides paying attention to the non-farm payroll data, we also need to watch whether US Treasury yields rise. This is the key factor affecting the bulls and bears of BTC and ETH. I closed my short position on ZEC yesterday. Holding short positions on BTC and ETH, waiting for Monday's situation to decide whether to close them!Woke up and immediately saw that Blast, which once made the points gameplay very popular, announced it is ceasing operations.
For a moment, it brought back so many memories. It used to be a top project, but because it often delayed things, it became both annoying and dragged on.
I once hoped to make big money from this project.
Because when I participated, ETH was only 2200, and by the time I could withdraw, it had surged past 4000.
It's really a pity that it all ended in a mess.Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 alongside a rising unemployment rate, causing the macro balance to tilt instantly. The most direct market split lies in the fact that the rate cut bets, which should have boosted valuations, instead saw risk assets collectively face resistance after initial gains. $BTC hit 87,220 before quickly encountering selling pressure and falling back to around 84,388, engaging in fierce contention near the EMA200; the safe-haven $XAU also slid from a high of 4228 down to 4145, while crude oil $BZ bucked the trend, rallying past 104.
US stocks showed relative restraint, with the Dow slightly pulling back and the Nasdaq barely holding its ground. This cross-market divergence sends a clear signal: capital is shifting rapidly from purely speculating on liquidity easing to defensively pricing in an economic growth slowdown.
When the cooling of employment data exceeds the buffer zone, macro funds’ expectations for lower risk-free rates are overshadowed by substantive demand concerns. Traders rushing to exit risk appetite amid liquidity stampede fears have imposed the first round of repricing pressure on crypto assets’ high beta characteristics.
In the short term, the market’s battle focus remains on $BTC’s ability to hold support at 83,186. If risk-off sentiment in US stocks and commodity markets spreads further, the crypto market may need more time to digest the valuation reappraisal brought by the macro slowdown.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
The US nonfarm payrolls for September were a huge surprise, with only 29,000 new jobs added, far below the market expectation of 90,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. At the same time, employment data for the previous two months were revised downward, clearly signaling a cooling labor market.
Personal view
This data directly crushed the market's bet on the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates. US Treasury yields quickly fell, bringing short-term benefits to risk assets like BTC and gold. The market logic is simple: weaker employment reduces the necessity for rate hikes, easing fears about high interest rates.
But there is a trap here: weak employment does not mean an immediate rate cut. Inflation data has not fully declined yet, and the Fed will remain cautious, not shifting to easing based on just one nonfarm report. The short-term rebound is driven by sentiment, not a trend reversal.
In terms of operations, do not chase the highs directly. The nonfarm market is highly volatile, and short-term gains are easily followed by rapid declines. Contracts must strictly control leverage and set stop losses. Next, focus on the PCE inflation data, which is the indicator the Fed truly cares about.Brothers, my account crashed badly today, hands shaking.
$CAP: The unlucky one caught chasing highs. 20X long position, opened at 0.08210, now 0.07352, down 21%. Doubled down yesterday, today dropped 12 points, set stop loss at 0.068, will accept loss if it breaks below.
$PONS: Tried to bottom-fish halfway down the slope. 20X long position, opened at 0.5530, now 0.4461, down 38%. It has been steadily falling from 0.988, insiders are still selling, if it drops further, liquidation is coming, panicking.
$2Z: The manipulator who fell back to the starting point in three days. 20X long position, opened at 0.06180, now 0.04515, down 54%, about to liquidate. Rose for a week, fell for three days, can’t even look at the account anymore.
All three lost over 700 U, chasing new coins at highs is a death sentence. CAP stopped out, PONS hoping for a rebound, 2Z leaving it to fate. Lights off, eating noodles, brothers don’t get carried away.
#NewCoinCrash #CAP #PONS #2Z #LiveTradingDiary #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2%
US nonfarm payrolls in September increased by only 29,000, below the expected 90,000; unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, wages also weakened, and August data was revised down — the labor market clearly cooling down.
How does the market interpret this?
👉 The probability of the Fed raising rates in October collapsed, traders shifted to "pause in October, reassess in December."
👉 US Treasury yields fell, US stock futures rallied, the dollar weakened, and risk assets breathed a sigh of relief.
👉 BTC briefly surged to 87,000, gold strengthened simultaneously, and the "digital gold" narrative is back.
But don’t get carried away:
Weak nonfarm payrolls ≠ automatic start of a bull market.
The current logic is "recession expectations + slowing rate hikes," not "liquidity flooding the market."
CPI hasn’t passed yet, December rate hike is still uncertain, and macro reversals can happen anytime.
The biggest traps for retail investors:
When data is bad, they think "all in on BTC/ETH is safe";
When data is good, they get scared and sell at a loss.
True experts focus on:
• Whether rate hike expectations continue to decline
• Whether US stock risk appetite can be sustained
• Whether BTC can hold key levels and if ETH will follow
• Whether exchange balances/stablecoin inflows are backed by real money
In short:
The nonfarm surprise is a "macro tailwind" for crypto, not a "blind buy pass."The SUI 1H chart on confirms price action respecting a horizontal consolidation rectangle around the dynamic MA100. An aggressive upward push into the $1.19–$1.20 ceiling on massive anomalous volume failed to produce a breakout, confirming seller absorption of demand. The preferred strategy is to enter a Short position near $1.182–$1.185 with a stop-loss parameter above $1.2093, targeting the lower range support shelf at $1.0979 for an asymmetric risk-to-reward setup. $SUI #USIranOilTensions The macro news is somewhat positive, and the technical side is showing short-term volatility. Last night was mainly about deleveraging; after high-level profit-taking was released, funds were reabsorbed. The non-farm payroll data was clearly weak, which in turn reduced the pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. In the medium term, this is still somewhat positive for BTC. Holding steady means a consolidation phase, with opportunities ahead to retest previous highs; if both these levels are broken, then be wary of a deeper technical correction. Now is not the time to panic sell on a big drop, nor to chase heavily on a rebound. $BTC $ETH #BTCETHETFOutflows
I'm watching $ETH around $2,680 after a strong move from the $2,358 low toward $2,807. Price is now consolidating near $2,700, while the MA20 sits around $2,638, giving the structure some support. I'd like to see ETH reclaim $2,700–$2,750 with momentum for another push higher. If support fails, $2,638 becomes an important level to watch. For now, I'm waiting for confirmation. The clamp bites the ascending aorta, the heart is still beating—but the real killer is never the incision, it's the silent plaque in the coronary artery. Nvidia added $150 billion to its buyback authorization, raising the remaining quota to $235 billion. This is not a shot in the arm; it's like pressing an ice pack directly on the heart's apex.
From a hemodynamic perspective, these numbers look great. Free cash flow was 70 billion in the first half of the year, buyback spending about 40 billion, cardiac output abundant, ejection fraction so good that the family signed off. But surgeons don’t step down without looking at the ejection fraction; we need to look at the coronary angiography. Buybacks are positive inotropes—they make the myocardium contract more forcefully but won’t open a narrowed vessel by even a millimeter. The real lesion lies on the demand side: computing power capital expenditure keeps climbing, like afterload tightening inch by inch. The left ventricle can hypertrophy during compensation, but once oxygen supply can’t keep up with demand, myocardial stunning can occur without warning.
The remaining $235 billion quota is equivalent to installing an extracorporeal circulation backup pump in the heart. The problem is, the backup pump’s power source comes from free cash flow, and the perfusion pressure of free cash flow depends on whether terminal demand continues. If computing power orders are a stable sinus rhythm, buybacks are reasonable postoperative anticoagulation; if orders are just a brief sinus rhythm after electrical cardioversion, then this huge authorization is like placing a defibrillator on already ischemic myocardium—each shock expands the infarct area.
Look at the linkage with the memory token target. Storage chips are the His bundle in the heart’s conduction system. No matter how strong the computing power, if the His bundle is blocked by supply-demand imbalance, the ventricles can only rely on their own escape rhythm, with irregular rhythm, and price mapping naturally becomes unstable. The more aggressive the upstream capital expenditure, the heavier the load on the conduction bundle. What looks like a regular waveform may just be a disguise for premature ventricular contractions.
Extending the time window to fiscal 2028, this is a long-term monitoring curve. Buyback authorization is not a cure; it’s postoperative pain relief. Pain relief can mask pain but cannot hide the continuous rise in myocardial enzyme levels. What really needs monitoring are the three bridge vessels: free cash flow, capital expenditure return rate, and terminal demand. If any one of these shows turbulence, the distal myocardium starts to cool.
When the spotlight shines on the $235 billion quota, what I see is not a hemostatic clamp but a guidewire pointing to the coronary artery. Whether the myocardium will infarct again does not depend on the moment the buyback is signed but on whether the blood flow can get there on its own. #nvidia150bbuyback$LITE LITE (Lumentum): Leading AI Optical Device Manufacturer, Main Uptrend Window Opens
Lumentum (LITE), as a leader in high-end optical chips, deeply benefits from the AI computing power interconnection and the major upgrade cycle of submarine optical cables, forming an industry chain synergy with Ciena (CIEN). The demand for 800G/1.6T high-speed optical devices continues to be released.
From a wave perspective, the daily-level Wave 2 correction has ended, and it has now entered the Wave 3-1 main uptrend. Operational advice: Buy on a pullback to stabilize around $1002 to establish a base position; if support holds, you can add to your position; the first target is $1236. If the closing price effectively breaks below $1002, it indicates the wave count is invalid, and a decisive stop loss should be executed.
Compared to the storage industry’s overcapacity, the optical module sector shows stronger demand resilience. However, the target’s valuation is relatively high, the US AI stock sector is highly volatile, and potential risks include cloud providers’ capital expenditure contraction and industry price competition. Wave theory is only a probabilistic technical projection, and wave patterns may deform.
⚠️ Special Reminder: The US stock market is highly volatile, with daily price swings possibly exceeding expectations. This article is only an objective analysis of fundamentals and technicals and does not constitute any investment advice.At that time, many bloggers were farming the blast developed by Lutie, depositing to earn points, and exchanging points for airdrops. I didn't participate then; it seemed like you had to recruit others, and I hate recruiting. I was farming zksync and starknet, both L2s. Except for recently when arb used rh to pay its profits and pumped the price, other L2s have been declining steadily to zero.
I received airdrops from arb, zks, and strk, but overall only made a little profit because I not only didn't sell, I also heavily bought into arb, op, and strk, only selling zks. In the end, under the L2 narrative, the so-called leveraged Ethereum beta, I lost a lot of money. From now on, I will never heavily invest in altcoins again, no matter how wildly someone hypes them. Position management and risk control must always come first.
Blast is also going to shut down; the fees earned are not enough to cover the chain's maintenance costs. I think besides it, a bunch of L2s that followed the trend will also inevitably face this shutdown outcome. There are too many new concepts and narratives in the crypto world, but the vast majority cannot withstand the test of time. Sigh, let's proceed with caution.$DOGE DOGE is currently around $0.091 to $0.093, after reaching a 24-hour high of $0.0979 and then clearly pulling back, showing a short-term pattern of rising and falling. In the mid-term, since the rebound in late September, it has been consolidating in the $0.090 to $0.098 range, with resistance clearly at $0.097 to $0.098, and volume has not yet confirmed a breakout. The key resistance above is $0.0979 to $0.0997; only a volume-backed recovery can challenge the $0.10 to $0.105 range. On the downside, support is first seen at $0.090 to $0.0903; if broken, it may retest $0.085 to $0.087. The current trend is biased toward range-bound oscillation and recovery. In the short term, it is better to observe whether $0.090 can hold and avoid chasing highs.A comparative data point: Bitcoin officially "outperformed" gold this year — rising 66% relative to gold since March.
What’s worth pondering here is that it challenges a popular narrative from the past half year:
Against the backdrop of inflation concerns, geopolitical conflicts, and "debt monetization," gold has continuously hit record highs and has been widely regarded as "the best safe-haven asset of this cycle," while Bitcoin’s performance has often been compared to gold and labeled as having "lost its safe-haven attribute."
But if we pull the time window back to since March, the conclusion reverses: BTC has risen 66% relative to gold.
This reminds us of one thing — the judgment of "who performed better" is extremely sensitive to "which day you start counting from."
The same asset, viewed from different starting points, can tell completely opposite stories.
Gold’s strength is a fact, BTC outperforming gold is also a fact; the contradiction lies only in the day you start counting from.
What’s even more worth remembering is a caution in thinking:
The narrative "gold completely beats Bitcoin" has a market because it fits many people’s existing expectations.
And the way to test it is simple — change the time windows and see if the conclusion still holds.
A conclusion that only holds true from a specific starting point is not a rule, but selective storytelling.Oil tanker hit, $ETH doesn't fall but supports: holding firm at 2581 aiming for 2708
Even with the oil tanker hit, $ETH's resistance impresses me! An oil tanker on the port side in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by a projectile; UKMTO reported crew safety.
$ETH currently at 2681.46, 24h -0.735%, I'm directly bullish—after the incident it moved from 2668.9 to 2681.46, +0.47%, no drop despite the negative news.
No drop on bad news is a signal, with three reasons.
First, daily RSI at 58.8 is strong but not overbought, 24h volume ratio 1.493, real buyers on the dip.
Second, funding rate 4.07e-06 is neutral, open interest to record 0.0%, long-short account ratio 3.0339, leverage not overheated.
Third, the market isn't dragging down, BTC at 84630.0 stands above ma7 84183.90, 30-day range position 0.777, fear-greed 67, attack structure intact.
Resistance above: 2708
Support below: 2581
Geopolitical conflicts push energy prices up; inflation hedge narrative actually benefits crypto. As long as 2650.88 holds, enter long at current price; cut losses if it breaks 2581, hold to 2708 if it doesn't. Follow me, no confusion in the next wave.
$ETH $BTCThe core pricing logic of the market this week is simple — the sudden cooling of US employment has shattered the "more rate hikes" trade, with US stocks soaring to record highs on expectations of rate cuts; meanwhile, oil prices breaking $100 and the inflationary tail caused by increased Middle East troop deployments, along with the Hong Kong stock market's catch-up decline during the holiday liquidity vacuum, remind the market that this is not a one-sided risk appetite, but a fragile balance of "growth downgrade in exchange for easing."Last night's market was a macro positive instantly crushed by a geopolitical “black swan,” compounded by concentrated liquidations of high-leverage long positions on $BTC $ETH $ZEC
📉 Why did the “rate hike cooling” positive effect fail?
The US September nonfarm payroll data was weak, and market expectations for a Fed rate hike in October dropped sharply from over 60% a week ago to about 22%. But the key turning point was: after the data release, Bitcoin quickly faced selling pressure from 87,200.
The reason is that the market quickly realized inflation risks were not resolved. Fed official Goolsbee clearly stated “inflation remains a concern, leaving room for rate hikes”; meanwhile, serious internal Fed divisions emerged—Dallas Fed President Logan even hawkishly advocated for another rate hike of over 50bp. The positive effect of rate hike cooling was offset by worries about “persistent inflation + internal divisions.”
🚨 The real trigger: geopolitical black swan
The direct catalyst for the crash was the attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The UK maritime agency reported a large tanker was hit by a projectile, marking the sixth similar attack in the strait this week.
Bitcoin’s safe-haven properties are much weaker than gold; when geopolitical risks rise, funds actually exit the crypto market. Bitcoin quickly gave back all gains after the news, with a single-day market cap evaporation of $50 billion.
⛓️ Leverage longs suffered a “bloodbath,” amplifying the decline
In a low liquidity environment, high-leverage long positions were forcibly liquidated en masse, creating a vicious cycle of “price drop → liquidation → further drop.”
· Nearly $600 million liquidated across the network within 24 hours, with longs accounting for 99% of liquidations in the last hour alone.
· BTC’s top 5 bid-ask depth ratio was only 0.17, with sell orders nearly 6 times the buy orders; such a thin order book means small selling pressure can trigger violent swings.
🔍 Why did ZEC fall especially hard?
Besides being dragged down by the overall market, ZEC faced triple individual pressures:
1. Excessive prior gains: ZEC peaked at 1,698, creating huge profit-taking pressure.
2. ETF fund outflows: Grayscale Zcash ETF saw net outflows exceeding $30 million in a single day.
3. Hacker rumors: Blockchain investigators flagged about $3.9 million ZEC flowing from addresses linked to the Bitget hacker into ZEC privacy pools, sparking market concerns about privacy coins being used for money laundering.
In short: macro positives were just a “bull trap,” the geopolitical black swan was the real market crusher for $ZEC Regarding $SAND, I’d rather first ask a somewhat uncomfortable question: Are we seeing a trend now, or a trend that has already been priced in prematurely?
Currently, the 1-hour trading volume is only 0.46 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, with both 1-hour and 4-hour charts showing strength. The direction seems consistent, but participation is low; a breakout without volume support often requires the next candle to confirm.
The current price is 0.06743, about 34.05% away from the 1-hour support at 0.04447, and about 9.00% away from resistance at 0.0735. The space is not determined by sentiment; ultimately, it depends on which of these two boundaries is effectively broken first.
What is most worrisome about $SAND is not the rise or fall, but that the price has moved while participation has not kept up.
For now, my conclusion is only conditional. My observation line is clear: only by standing back above and holding 0.0735 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; if it breaks below 0.04447, attention should shift to the 4-hour support at 0.04202. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.0735 is only a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
I don’t only share when my judgments are correct. How the price chooses between 0.0735 and 0.04447 next will be publicly reviewed in the next round.
Is this volume contraction a sign of stable chips, or a lack of market relay?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is Coin Circle Bull speaking.This time, his account holds a position worth about 160 million USD, still concentrating the vast majority of funds in $BTC and $ETH, with only a small portion left in $HYPE, more like an emotional position: gains are extra profits, losses won't affect the overall position structure. What’s really worth watching is not how much leverage he used, but where he placed his main chips and how much volatility space he left for himself. First, look at $BTC. Maji’s $BTC is a 40x long position, about 546 BTC, with an average entry price around $84,549 and a liquidation price around $75,542. But now the macro market background has changed. On October 2, the US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the market expectation of about 90,000; the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.1% month-over-month. Meanwhile, August nonfarm payrolls were revised down to 133,000. After this data was released, market expectations for a rate hike in October clearly cooled, with some pricing even shifting to "no change in October." The normal logic should be: Nonfarm surprise → rate hike expectations decline → US Treasury yields fall → risk assets get support. But $BTC’s actual movement is not that simple. After the data release, BTC once again surged above $87,000, then experienced significant volatility. More importantly, US Treasury yields did not continue to fall, 10