#FedViceChairAIInflation
About FedViceChairAIInflation
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the US AI infrastructure buildout is creating new inflation pressure, as fast-growing AI demand raises production costs for some goods and services and contributes to core goods inflation. Market rates across maturities have risen further since the September meeting, he said, and the Fed may need more time and data to assess whether another rate adjustment is needed. October rate-hike bets eased following his remarks.
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BREAKING: US data center construction spending surged +73% YoY in August, to a record annualized rate of $85 billion.
This follows a +65% YoY increase in June and marks the largest YoY increase since April 2025.
Since the start of 2021, data center construction spending has soared +$76 billion, or +823%.
Meanwhile, general office construction spending fell -10% YoY in August, to $46 billion, the 5th-lowest reading since December 2015.
Since the start of 2023, construction spending on general offices has declined -$25 billion, or -35%.
As a result, the gap between data center and general office construction spending has surged to a record $39 billion.
The AI investment surge is gaining momentum.
🏛️ Is Inflation Still Too Hot for the Fed?
Dr. Ed Yardeni examines core PCED vs. core CPI, and why the US economy can handle tighter policy. Despite elevated underlying inflation, growth remains remarkably resilient thanks to the AI capital-spending boom.
☑️ Core PCED estimated at 3.4–3.5% y/y
☑️ AI software inflation surging 25%+
☑️ Hyperscalers’ capex heading toward $800B–$1T
☑️ Q3 GDP tracking 5.0%
☑️ Economy far less interest-rate sensitive than in past cycles
Could the AI buildout and a higher neutral rate keep the expansion alive even as the Fed tightens further?
👉 Dive into the full analysis and see the data behind this resilience:
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Jefferson’s point is less about AI as a headline and more about transmission: infrastructure demand can reach core goods prices before any broad productivity payoff arrives. With rates higher across maturities, the policy hurdle is whether that pressure proves durable enough to change the Fed’s patience. The next data set matters more than the next narrative.
#FedViceChairAIInflation
So much for the Fed and its policy of no forward guidance. So far this week, the Fed’s Williams and Jefferson have both said they're in no rush to raise rates. For a central bank that is supposed to be in the business of providing no forward guidance, their comments this week sure sound a lot like forward guidance.
Tomorrow’s jobs report will say a lot about that. While the jobs report has become almost as unpredictable as the JOLTS report these days, data from Revelio Labs, along with ADP, suggest that job growth has been improving. That could point to a stronger number tomorrow, and with estimates calling for just 90,000 jobs to have been created, the bar for a beat is fairly low.
