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In a bull market surge, the best move is often to reduce trading
Why do many people tend to lose more in a strong rally?
They sell their good positions after a small rise (or fall), then see the price move further and chase it again unwillingly, increasing leverage out of fear of missing out. When the market reverses, they can't handle the volatility, ending up getting hit from both sides.
Looking at this $BSB is quite frustrating too. Bought during the hype, now stuck in a loss, neither managing it nor daring to. Managing a position against the trend might drag down your entire account. In the short term, this is not a good spot to add more.
Recently, many altcoins have surged. $MUBARAK has nearly multiplied eight times since the low in August, which is truly enviable. Mid-Autumn Festival is coming soon; the real monsters should start showing up.
This is my personal live trading view and does not constitute investment advice
ദ്ദി◝ ⩊ ◜.ᐟ$XRP
Why can XRP still rise when the overall market is consolidating?
XRP is currently trading around $1.56, up about 1.9% in a single day, clearly stronger than ETH and SOL. Funds may be shifting from core assets with larger gains to high Beta targets.
If XRP holds the breakout zone after a pullback and spot trading remains steady, it indicates that the rotation has continuity.
If the rise mainly comes from increased contract positions without spot buying support, the strength may quickly reverse. Relative strength is worth monitoring, but the leverage structure determines whether this strength is reliable.Many people chase after a big bullish candlestick, only to buy at the point of maximum deviation from the moving average — this is the most common way to lose money in short-term trading. To judge whether a trend is healthy, don't look at the price increase; instead, look at whether the moving averages are aligned and if the momentum is synchronized.
Taking $TST as an example: current price is 0.01874, 24h increase is 14.48%, but MA5=0.018586 is still below MA20=0.0187, and the moving averages have not formed a golden cross yet, indicating this is a rebound rather than a confirmed trend; the MACD histogram is -0.0001267, momentum is still on the bearish side; RSI at 58.7 is neutral to slightly strong, not overheated. Bollinger Bands [0.0180511, 0.0193489], current price is close to the upper band, so a short-term pullback to the middle band is needed. Funding rate +0.0350% is slightly positive, bullish sentiment is somewhat crowded, combined with a Fear & Greed Index of 71 (greedy), the risk of chasing highs outweighs the opportunity.
Conclusion: This is a "rebound with uncorrected moving averages," the strategy should be to buy on pullbacks rather than chase highs. Entry reference is 0.01840–0.01860 (close to MA5 and the lower edge of the Bollinger middle band; if the pullback does not break this, the structure holds); Take profit 1 at 0.01930 (near the upper Bollinger band, pressure level realized); Take profit 2 at 0.01990 (extension target after breaking the upper band); Stop loss at 0.01795 (breaking below the Bollinger lower band 0.01805 means the rebound structure fails)."The Self-Cultivation of Chasing Highs"
$ZEC I really can't understand what people rushing in to go long are thinking right now.
At $80 you complained it wasn't hot enough, at $300 you thought it was rising too slowly, at $750 you hesitated a bit, and now at $1600 you actually feel the "trend is established."
The ones standing guard at the top of every bull market are always this group.
The current situation is very clear: above is emotional premium, below is value reversion. It could push up and double again, but downwards there's room for a halving and then another halving. With these odds, shorting is obviously more comfortable than going long.
I'm not saying ZEC has no future, I'm saying your cost determines your mindset. People entering at $1600 and those entering at $80 seem to be in the same market, but actually live in two different worlds.
The cruelest part of a bull market is that it always makes the last batch of people feel like they are "going with the trend."
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ This bull market is still ongoing. Yesterday, the Nasdaq $QQQ rose about 0.4%, driven not only by the hot Muse from $xMETA but also by the important AI topics involved in tomorrow's China-US summit. Ajian found that many people think the AI competition between China and the US will be a fierce fight to the death, but in fact, US banks have already participated in 19 IPOs of Chinese high-tech companies this year, totaling about $17.2 billion, accounting for nearly 30% of China's high-tech equity financing; meanwhile, mainland China and Hong Kong investors hold over $750 billion in US stocks.
This shows a reality: while decoupling can be discussed verbally, capital is honest, and Wall Street will not obediently exit just because of the so-called China-US AI competition. The US is promoting its own AI supply chain, and China is pushing for AI autonomy. Future technological competition will become increasingly intense, but capital and supply chains will still be partially intertwined.
This is also why China-US AI policies are becoming increasingly important, why this summit is so crucial, and why the market is already trading on the positive news in advance. If you are an ordinary trader, you should also pay attention to this summit and hope for favorable AI policies rather than being too extreme. #AMD市值突破1万亿美元，芯片股集体大涨 $DOGE $DOGE I just took a position around 0.1037. There's no news outside, but the order book is very lively, with orders being placed and canceled rapidly—a typical capital tug-of-war. At times like this, don't ask for narratives; it's just the dog whales shaking out weak hands. Before volume picks up, it's all probing. Reason to watch: unusual order book activity during quiet times carries more information than a flood of shout orders. Risks must be mentioned too—spikes can throw you off the trade instantly, so manage your position size carefully. How does the order book feel on your side? Are you bullish or do you think there's another round of dumping coming? 👇👇👇Nasdaq breaks new highs
$BTC touched 87000, yesterday's pullback did not break below 85000
Brent crude oil fell below 100
The trend is still very strong, short-term may fluctuate for a few days, a new breakout point is needed for further breakthroughs
Since both US stocks and BTC have risen, there must be macroeconomic positive factors
The US and Iran have started new negotiations, crude oil prices are falling
The current turning point should be the negotiation results
I think we need to consider one question, "the possibility of US-Iran reaching an agreement"
The possibility of a complete agreement is basically zero, the US will not back down, Iran now holds the "Hormuz" card and will not easily concede.
The best outcome is a temporary ceasefire and reaching a temporary agreement, but I think the possibility is also very low; if it could have been negotiated, it would have been done earlier, not dragged out like this.
The most likely scenario is the same as before, negotiating and then fighting again, fighting and then negotiating, negotiating while fighting.
Before the negotiation results come out, the market has expectations of an agreement, so it is positive
But once the negotiation results actually come out, it may start to be negative
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ ETH current price is $2777.42, and the momentum remains strong after continuous rallies. On September 21, the spot ETH ETF reportedly had a net inflow of about $270 million, combined with a short squeeze driven by BTC, ETH has climbed back above $2700. Next, the Glamsterdam upgrade is expected to enter the testnet by the end of September, which also brings new fundamental expectations to the market.
However, the short-term gains have been considerable, so I will not continue to heavily buy near 2777. I will first watch the $2750–$2700 support, with resistance at $2800 and $2900 above. If it breaks below $2700, it may enter a period of high-level consolidation.
Can ETF funds and upgrade expectations continue to support the rally? Do you think ETH's next stop is $3000, or will it first pull back?
#ETH #Ethereum #AI押注受挫，华尔街交易巨头月亏150亿美元 $ETH Many projects in the crypto space used to have no cash flow and no profits, and their tokens were even less profitable, with zero value being the norm. But now, the community's demands for project teams have increased. Protocols not only need to make money but also use profits to buy back and burn tokens or distribute profits to token holders.
For example, the most classic token is hyperliquid, which uses real profits to buy back and burn HYPE. HYPE has already increased 4 times and is about to hit $100 each. However, there are still some protocols that make money but either don't buy back tokens or do so weakly, causing their tokens to keep falling. Playing with such tokens requires the mindset that the protocol's profits are unrelated to the token, and it's best not to play at all.
In the future crypto space, except for memes which can be air coins purely for gambling and providing emotional value to the community, other tokens must have fundamentals. Projects must be profitable, and project teams must conduct buybacks. Otherwise, no one will play. It's harder to deceive people in the crypto space now, and the real strength of project teams is being tested.#UNI futures listing expectations heat up, first watch liquidity rather than target price
A current hot post on OKEx Planet mentions that CME plans to launch UNI and BCH futures on October 19, pending regulatory review; meanwhile, the page shows UNI's intraday increase of about 17.7%. The first-level impact of such news is to give institutions another hedging and shorting tool, which does not necessarily mean the spot price will continue to rise.
I will observe three things: whether trading volume continuously expands before listing, whether the price increase is supported by the spot market rather than driven by contract chasing, and whether the open interest rises along with volatility after the announcement is implemented. Futures expansion may improve liquidity but may also accelerate long-short battles, especially for coins that have just experienced a sharp rise. The biggest risk is mistaking "product listing expectations" for "fundamentals already realized."
So this news is worth tracking but not suitable for chasing highs. Waiting for confirmation from liquidity and price structure is more important than guessing target levels first.
$UNI $BCH I came across a CNBC clip featuring a guy from Neoclassic named Bucella. He only holds three things: francs, gold, and Bitcoin.
He has a viewpoint that made me suddenly slap my thigh, implying that this wave of price increase has little to do with Washington or the failed bill.
The reason is simple: U.S. debt has piled up to 40 trillion dollars, the dollar is depreciating, and smart money simply avoids dollar assets and goes for scarce assets instead.
The bill didn't pass, even though a few hundred million flowed out from ETFs those days.
The next day, BTC ETF saw an inflow of 1 billion in a single day, and then the money came back to buy again. This shows these people aren't really here for the congressional drama.
I never thought about it that way before.
Also, previously Bitcoin couldn't be used as collateral for loans, but now BTC can be directly pledged for loans in the U.S., and there are more and more onshore products, including self-custody.
Including what we talked about before: using BTC to pay mortgages, and borrowing against BTC ETF shares through private banks like Morgan Stanley, UBS, Goldman Sachs, etc., pledging 1BIT or GBTC shares to borrow money, so you don't have to sell your coins and can still get liquidity.
So if you're tight on cash, you don't have to sell Bitcoin, which reduces selling pressure in the market.
You see, this has nothing to do with the bill anymore; the price is being supported.
But Bucella also admits BTC is still a risky asset; if the market is bad, it will still fall. So whether it's digital gold or a speculative asset, both apply now.
I'm also pondering, trying to guess which indicators are reliable for BTC's price movements?$BTC current price 86933, range 85111 to 86960, basically hugging the daily high close. This move is strong, leaving little room for the bears. ETH is the same, ranging from 2716 to 2779, current price 2778, ETH is walking on the daily high, the 2800 round number resistance is just ahead.
I'm watching the OKX order book; BTC buy orders remain above 86500, 87000-87500 is clear resistance. If it breaks through without volume, it will likely pull back to catch a breath. ETH is more straightforward, 2800 is today's critical point; only if it holds above can we look at 2850-2900, otherwise it will be a rise and fall.
Key levels I marked:
$BTC: Support at 86000-86300, as long as it doesn't break on a pullback, it's still strong; resistance at 87300-88000, only with volume above can we target 90000.
ETH: Support at 2750-2770, breaking below means weakness; resistance at 2800-2850, failure to break means a rebound.
My strategy: For this kind of move hugging the daily high close, if BTC pulls back near 86300 with low volume and stops falling, I'll lightly buy in with a stop loss below 85500; if it directly breaks 87500 without volume, I'll reduce short-term positions. For ETH, if it holds above 2800, I'll hold; if it can't break through, I'll reduce.
A strong market is good, but the hotter it gets, the calmer you need to be. Don't mistake a rebound for a reversal. $ETH ETH is consolidating narrowly around 2750 USD today (September 23), currently trading at about 2755 USD, down slightly by 0.86% in 24 hours. It touched 2767 USD in the early morning but retreated slightly after failing to hold above that level.
Technical pressure: ETH encountered significant rejection after reaching the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level at 2818 USD. After a strong 37% rebound earlier, bullish momentum has weakened, signaling a temporary top technically. Meanwhile, ETH/BTC shows bearish divergence, with BTC's short-term relative strength diverting funds.
Fragile order book structure: The buy-sell depth ratio of the top 5 levels is only 0.43, with sellers clearly dominant. There is a highly concentrated large buy order at 2753.73 USD, accounting for 98.2% of the total buy volume in the top 5 levels. If this price level breaks, the support from buy orders below will be very weak.
Derivatives risk accumulation: The total open interest of ETH contracts across the network has risen to 16 billion USD, with 6.8 billion concentrated on Binance. Short positions account for nearly 50%, with a certain accumulation of shorts around 2800 USD. If the price continues to rise, increased liquidation size may amplify volatility.Yesterday, the crypto market continued to fluctuate at high levels, with BTC and ETH overall remaining strong without any significant deep drops. Meanwhile, market hotspots continued to rotate, with BCH and UNI showing sharp gains again, with BCH rising over 30% at one point; ZEC and HYPE also caught up in gains. $BTC As long as the market does not experience a sharp decline, the overall profit-making effect remains quite significant. Next, attention can continue to be on hotspot rotation and related hot coins, as speculative funds in the current market are expected to remain active. After the market hits new highs, some crypto products have already shown warning signals for 12H and daily highs. It should be noted that warning signals are left-sided signals, indicating the market is still in a left-side ascent phase. Usually, after stagnation occurs at high levels and then starts to pull back, it is more likely for further "high point formation" signals to appear. Currently, the probability of both cycles forming peaks simultaneously has exceeded 60%, which is a situation worth paying close attention to. #BTC冲高 $87,000, the total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion #CME Plans to Launch BCH and UNI Futures
A current hot post on OKEx Planet mentions that CME plans to launch UNI and BCH futures on October 19, pending regulatory review; meanwhile, the page shows UNI's intraday increase at about 17.7%. The primary impact of such news is to provide institutions with additional hedging and short-selling tools, which does not necessarily mean the spot price will continue to rise.
I will observe three things: whether trading volume continuously expands before launch, whether the price increase is supported by the spot market rather than driven by contract chasing, and whether the open interest rises along with volatility after the announcement is finalized. Futures expansion may improve liquidity but could also accelerate the long-short battles, especially for coins that have just experienced a sharp rise. The biggest risk is mistaking the "product launch expectation" for "fundamentals already realized."
Therefore, this news is worth tracking but not suitable for chasing highs. Waiting for confirmation from liquidity and price structure is more important than guessing target levels first. $BCH $UNI Triple resonance: Dollar weakening + historic ETF inflows + 365-day moving average bull market confirmation, but the shortfall in spot demand must be addressed
#BTC surged to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
#Positive signals from the 3-hour US-Iran talks?
1️⃣ BTC closed above the 365-day moving average, a line that has signaled every bull market since 2019, recovered for the first time since March 2023. (Fig.1)
2️⃣ Institutional bullish positions on the dollar have declined for the 7th consecutive week, the longest streak since Q1 2025. Although the dollar index rebounded short-term due to rate hikes, institutions are genuinely withdrawing bets on the dollar — a medium-term tailwind for crypto assets. (Fig.2)
3️⃣ $BTC spot ETF net inflow on Monday was $999 million, the ninth largest single-day inflow in history; IBIT attracted $665 million over three days; BlackRock's ETH ETF bought $1.01 billion $ETH over 20 days; BTC futures net inflow was $2.91 billion in a single day. Total market cap returned to 3 trillion, altcoins collectively followed the rally. (Fig.3, Fig.4)
However ⚠️ short-term holders have already sent 47,600 BTC to exchanges to take profits as the price broke 87k, and spot demand remains negative currently, mainly supported by futures for the rebound, with spot not fully catching up.
88-90k is both the next resistance level indicated by moving averages and the densest profit-taking zone; spot demand needs to catch up to stabilize.Ethereum abandoning the traditional sharding chain is not a failure of the roadmap, but an acknowledgment of external changes
The early roadmap planned to split the blockchain into multiple shard chains, allowing different validators to process different transactions. Later, the development speed of L2 far exceeded expectations, and data Blobs provided a scaling method more suitable for Rollups, so the traditional sharding chain was removed from the roadmap.
Some interpret this change in the roadmap as wavering, but in fact, not updating the plan is more dangerous. The technical roadmap is not a religious commitment; when external solutions solve problems faster, continuing to invest in old designs just to save face is pointless. Ethereum retains the data partitioning concept from sharding but changes the specific implementation.
Adjusting the roadmap certainly has costs. Developers need to re-plan, and the community must accept that the previously emphasized solution is no longer the focus. Publicly explaining why the change was made is more credible than quietly maintaining a meaningless goal.
One reason I am optimistic about $ETH is that this system allows itself to overturn old assumptions. The most important thing for a long-term protocol is not to never change direction, but to be able to change direction when new evidence emerges without breaking the already running network. Admitting that old solutions are outdated requires governance capabilities no less than proposing new solutions.
Being able to abandon a plan that has been invested in for many years is also a way to avoid sunk cost fallacy hijacking the protocol. Changing direction does not mean retreating.Greed index at 71, funding rate turning positive, 24-hour surge of 18% — is this UNI rally the start of a trend or the last gasp of a crowded long position?
First, let's look at the funding position: $UNI current price 10.752, funding rate +0.0220%, the highest among the three candidate coins, indicating longs in the perpetual market are paying to hold positions, sentiment is hot. The moving averages show MA5=10.543 has crossed above MA20=9.536, signaling a mid-term bullish structure; however, RSI=77.0 is in the overbought zone, and the price 10.752 is close to the upper Bollinger band at 10.8797, so chasing the price higher in the short term is not cost-effective. MACD histogram +0.1574 remains bullish, momentum is not exhausted, combined with a 24h trading volume of 227.5M USDT expanding, indicating real capital is backing the longs, not just a pump.
My judgment: the direction is bullish, but do not chase the highs; wait for a pullback. Entry reference is 10.35–10.55, near MA5 and the pullback confirmation zone after the breakout, also a dense cost zone for longs; take profit 1 at 10.88, corresponding to the pressure test at the upper Bollinger band; take profit 2 at 11.30, an extension target after breaking the upper band; stop loss at 9.95, breaking below the previous high support above MA20 is considered a false breakout, and RSI overbought pullbacks often accompany long liquidations and stampedes, so defense is necessary.5U challenge 10,000 times, reaching the third day. The account kept moving forward. 5.6U → 6.7U。 On the third day, there was no particularly dramatic surge, nor did I go all-in on a single gamble to double my head. I caught MUBARAK during the day, and USELESS at night. Both trades had a clear commonality: a 4-hour level golden cross on the water. I made a small profit, and my account reached 6.7U. From the initial 5U, I've now increased by 1.7U. But more important than that 1.7U is what I'm increasingly convinced of the most important thing to stick to this challenge. Not prediction. Not leverage. Not even a guaranteed daily profit. But two basic trading principles: First, split positions. Second, stop losses. These two must always be followed. First, on the third day, start finding your trading rhythm. The first two days were actually quite chaotic. Especially the next day, after several trades, I made profits and losses, and my account kept fluctuating. It wasn't until $BTC rose in the evening and I grabbed $DOGE that my account reached 5.6U. On the third day, I clearly felt better. I started paying more attention to familiar trading signals, rather than jumping in just because I saw price movements. Today's $MUBARAK during the day and $USELESS at night both fell after a 4-hour golden cross above the water appeared, so I started paying attention and participating. I'm not saying that just because a golden cross above water appears, it will definitely rise. Technical indicators have never been magic for predicting the future. They really are1. What happened? This morning at 11 o'clock, the market directly tore open a gap, with $ZEC quoted at 1616.16 USD, a violent 24-hour surge of 11.56%. Such volatility is already considered extreme in the privacy sector. In contrast, the two Memecoin giants, $DOGE currently priced at 0.102720, only rose 3.65%; $SHIB quoted at 0.000006, up 3.36%, completely playing a supporting role. To put it more bluntly, among the top five on CoinGecko's hot search list lie $ZEC and NEAR, indicating that funds did not stay overnight in Memecoin today but collectively shifted to privacy narratives and public chain ecosystems. 2. What are the funds betting on? This big bullish candle of $ZEC is not something retail investors can pile up; around 1616 is exactly the area with the densest previous trapped positions. A volume breakout only indicates that funds are actively buying, and they are doing so urgently. However, the moderate gains of $DOGE and $SHIB reveal the truth: this is not a comprehensive Memecoin rally, just an emotional spillover. Structural rallies are the worst for those chasing highs; seeing familiar names on the hot search and rushing in only to find they have taken the weakest positions. NEAR appearing on the hot search is no coincidence either. Multiple trading competitions including BABY, BANK, PROVE, and NEAR are simultaneously underway, with rewards directly issued as BNB token vouchers. Some sensitive funds have long shifted to the track to complete tasks and earn rebates, so who would foolishly buy at high prices? This kind of fund rotation indicates a shortHow many people are stubbornly holding onto $CORE, not because they see the ecosystem about to explode, but because they are trapped in a psychological prison.
After the hype of the Hong Kong Bitcoin Conference, a series of vulnerability incidents followed, with the script more coherent than the whitepaper. Liquidity continues to dry up, old commercial nodes gradually exit, new official nodes come online, controversy over token issuance arises immediately, the whereabouts of the chips are not clearly explained, and the coin price has dropped by hundreds of times.
Clearly, the market continues to weaken, so why are holders unwilling to leave? Five layers of psychological shackles trap holders:
Sunk cost: Having invested years and hundreds of thousands of capital, leaving means admitting a total loss, unwilling to admit defeat.
Loss aversion: Not selling means losses are just on paper; once sold, losses are finalized, instinctively avoided.
Cognitive dissonance: Unwilling to admit judgment errors, constantly collecting positive news to convince themselves the project will eventually take off.
Social validation: The community rallies together, creating the illusion that with so many holding, they can’t all be wrong.
Authority bias: Assuming reliability just because the exchange lists it, deliberately ignoring token sell pressure and landing difficulties.
The smarter the person, the easier it is to fall in, constantly finding reasons to beautify their faith.
Many are still bitterly waiting for 0.5U, but returning to this price level is extremely difficult. Promotion continues to update, narratives are repeatedly recycled, but actual landing products are few, slogans always ahead of products.
The scariest thing about investing is not the price drop, but being blinded by obsession, watching the principal shrink, unwilling to face the risk.
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice. Virtual currencies are highly volatile and carry high risk.秋分刚过，夜里开始有了凉意。在屏幕前盯盘久了，有时候会觉得那些红绿交织的K线特别虚幻，反倒是菜市场和超市里的烟火气更让人踏实。 下周市场的目光全都聚焦在两个看似毫无关联的庞然大物身上：一个是卖便宜烤鸡和家庭大包装的Costco（开市客），另一个是喂饱AI服务器算力胃口的存储巨头美光（Micron）。前者在9月24日盘后亮剑，后者紧随其后在9月30日出牌。这两份财报，就像一面照妖镜，一边映出底层普通消费者的钱袋子到底还剩多少韧性，另一边则直接拷问那场狂热的AI基建叙事究竟还能烧多久。 很多人只盯着Costco之前披露的高达939亿美元的季度净销售额，看那同比11.3%的增长欢呼雀跃。但我在这行泡了这么多年，更在乎的是脱掉燃油和汇率外衣后那6.7%的同店真实增速，以及最重要的——续费率与利润率。当通胀的钝刀子割肉割了整整两年，美国家庭是不是还在咬牙给会员卡充值？如果连Costco的会员增长都开始显露疲态，所谓的“软着陆”不过是华尔街编织的遮羞布。 转头看美光，财报指引凶悍得吓人：500亿美元营收、约86%的毛利率预期，赤裸裸地展现了AI高带宽内存（HBM）的溢价狂欢。这让我想起SK海力士此On September 22, six major Canadian banks announced a joint exploration of a Canadian dollar digital currency solution, with the first phase testing tokenized deposit transfers between participating banks. Participants include BMO, CIBC, National Bank, RBC, Scotiabank, and TD. The announcement stated that future connections to other digital asset projects are possible, but there is no commitment to issue a new public-facing token at this time. The most common misunderstanding here is to directly equate "tokenized deposits" with stablecoins. Both can represent value on a distributed ledger, but their liability relationships differ. Tokenized deposits represent deposit obligations already assumed by the banks, with the banks remaining the debtors. Fiat stablecoins are usually issued by independent issuers, and holders face the issuer's reserves, redemption, and compliance arrangements. Canada's OSFI stated more directly in its September 10 announcement: the technological form of a financial product does not determine its legal nature; tokenized deposits are legally no different from traditional deposits. In other words, placing deposits into a DLT recording system does not automatically change whose liability it is, nor does it automatically grant it the nature of free transferability. The first phase only involves interbank transfers, which is also an important scope. It is not a payment network accessible by individual wallets, does not mean ordinary users can transfer bank balances to any address, and certainly does not mean tokenized deposits are interchangeable with stablecoins or public chain assets. If such assets enter wallets or settlement interfaces in the future, the balance field must at least be separated: who issues, who The market has returned to a long-lost rhythm: Bitcoin $BTC is consolidating sideways, while mainstream altcoins are catching up.
$UNI Uniswap has become the beneficiary of this round of Robinhood stock token deposits, capturing 99% of the share, with its price continuously hitting new highs, multiplying 5 times in just 3 months.
During Bitcoin's sideways consolidation, low-position mainstream altcoins are catching up, prioritizing those in the top 100 by market cap. Typically, before a holiday, the market has a time lag of about 3-5 days; today counts as the first day.
As long as BTC does not fall below 83,000, the basic market condition remains intact. But judging by the current market performance, the mainstream altcoins in the later ranks are successively moving and catching up, even BCH and LTC are rising.
One phenomenon I have observed is that $OKB often acts as the last to catch up. So if you see $OKB starting to rally, then don't recklessly add positions in the following days; just focus on holding $OKB.Bitcoin has just shown a signal that has led to a bull market 4 times before but was also a trap 2 times!
BTC has closed the week above the 50-week MA after a long period below it. History records 6 similar instances:
4 times → continued bull market
2 times → false signal
Long-term holders are still accumulating
BTC just closed the week above $78,788
But the signal is not yet confirmed. It requires 2 more consecutive weekly closes above the 50-week MA.
Will this time $BTC join the group of 4 bullish signals or the 2 previous “traps”? 👀
#Bitcoin #BTCTreasuryFundingRise ORLA MARKET NOTE｜MIDDAY EDITION
09.23｜11:32｜午间盘
饼子现价｜大饼86626｜二饼2767 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 这两天的行情特别像一群人抬着现金冲进商场,结果走到87000门口,保安把手一伸：“钱可以进去,价格先在外面排队”,ETF资金是真的在买,上方卖盘也是真的在砸。 有人看到资金流入就闭眼追多,有人看见一根回落马上喊见顶,一个只看新闻标题,一个只看眼前这根K线,两个人凑在一起,刚好拼出一套完整的亏钱流程。 大家中午好,我是你们的Orla。 Farside数据显示,美国现货比特币ETF在9月21日净流入约9.99亿,9月22日已披露净流入约3.64亿,以太坊ETF同期分别净流入约2.70亿和7130万。 连续资金回流给上涨提供了燃料,但燃料加满不代表汽车可以直接飞上天,87000附近的获利盘和套牢盘,正在排队下车。 今晚北京时间22:05和22:20还有两场美联储官员讲话,虽然不是利率决议,但市场现在就像一只耳朵贴在美联储门上,里面咳嗽一声,外面的杠杆资金都可能先抖三下。 如果讲话没有新的紧缩信号,资金面仍然有利于多头,若利率External KOLs speak out collectively! What exactly is CORE's core advantage?
KBW Korea Blockchain Week is underway, with the CORE team exhibiting offline. Overseas X platform influencers are engaging in collective discussions, with many considering CORE a unique player in the BTC-Fi sector.
Key differentiators:
1. Satoshi Plus consensus: integrates Bitcoin hash power + DPOS, with underlying security guaranteed by Bitcoin miners' hash power. Unlike other BTC-Fi layer-2 solutions, it does not rely on other public chain infrastructures.
2. Native L1 Bitcoin staking: users can directly stake BTC on the CORE chain, unlocking Bitcoin DeFi value. This is the foundational narrative of the community.
3. Accelerated global offline expansion: continuous offline salons in Southeast Asia and Korea, consistently connecting with overseas capital and developers to expand the global community.
However, these advantages are theoretical and require time to materialize.
The biggest current shortcoming: relatively few ecosystem applications, slow growth in on-chain activity, and token circulation selling pressure remain ongoing points of contention within the community.
From a market perspective, CORE is currently priced at 0.02276, showing a short-term rebound of +28.36% over 7 days, but with significant long-term decline. The $0.5 price mentioned by overseas influencers is a very optimistic long-term assumption, requiring both a major bull market and ecosystem explosion; it should not be used as a short-term trading target.
Market contention point: whether KBW can bring ecosystem growth will determine how far this rebound can go.
#OKX星球话题来啦 After playing poker for so many years and then trading, I've concluded one thing: the real opportunities to make big money only come a few times a year; the rest of the time is just waiting. $ETH and $SOL have rebounded with the market these past couple of days, and the comment section is lively again—"Is the bull market back?" My answer is: maybe, but this isn't the kind of opportunity worth risking your entire stake on. There are two types of opportunities: one that makes your hands itch, and one that you are certain about. The former happens every day; the latter is very rare. Save your big bets for the latter if you want to survive long in this market. Was the last real big opportunity you had one you seized or missed?Brothers and sisters, today's market has something going on — the total market cap once again surged back to $3 trillion intraday. Although the Fear and Greed Index cooled down from yesterday's 78 "Extreme Greed" to 71 "Greed," honestly, 71 still counts as "Greed," indicating that the bullish sentiment hasn't retreated at all; it has just shifted from frenzy to a "rational excitement" mode. Let's break it down one by one below. ₿ BTC: Bears were bloodied for $1 billion, $90,000 is the next critical lifeline. Bitcoin has risen about 15% over the past 7 days, reaching an intraday high of $87,363, the highest since January this year. The core logic behind this rally is very clear: the price broke through the previously long-suppressed $82,000 to $86,000 range, where a large number of short positions were concentrated. After the breakout, shorts were forced to cover, with liquidations exceeding $1 billion, which significantly amplified the upward momentum. What’s more noteworthy are the on-chain signals. Glassnode points out that Bitcoin has climbed back above the main long-term moving average that it had been running below for about 300 days. Meanwhile, the price is also above the "True Market Mean" and the average buy cost of short-term holders, which is regarded as an important dividing line indicating the market has entered a strong upward phase. Over the past week, more than 1 million BTC were transferred on-chain, corresponding to over $92 billion, marking a new high in nearly four years. How to view the key level? The $90,000 mark is a tough nut to crack — Deribit data shows that near-term options with strike prices between $90,000 and $100,000 have open interest totaling about $7.7 billion, among which $9Why did DOGE suddenly start to surge?
I believe this rise is not caused by a single factor but by several factors occurring simultaneously.
First, there is a clear rebound in risk appetite across the entire crypto market.
Recently, after BTC reclaimed a key level, capital began to flow from Bitcoin to ETH and high-volatility altcoins. DOGE itself is a token very sensitive to market liquidity and sentiment, so once the market enters a risk-on phase, its gains often significantly exceed those of BTC.
The second reason is short squeeze.
During this rally, a large number of DOGE short positions were forced to close, creating a cycle of "rising—short squeeze—continued rise."
Data shows that around September 21, over $1 billion in short positions were liquidated across the crypto derivatives market, with DOGE short liquidations amounting to about $12.66 million.
This explains why DOGE suddenly accelerated in a short time.
Because once the price breaks through a key level, those who were short have to buy back to close their positions, and these buy orders further push the price up.
Is there real capital participation in this rise?
This is also worth noting.
Recently, DOGE has seen a noticeable increase in whale addresses accumulating it. Data shows that before and after the rise, large addresses bought a total of about 240 million to 360 million DOGE.
At the same time, spot DOGE ETF inflows have also recovered, with about $900,000 flowing in on September 21 alone. Personally, I tend to take short positions for quick profits and exit.OKX will launch the 2x MicroStrategy MSTU perpetual contract this afternoon, which can be traded with USDT and allows leverage on leverage.
OKX just announced that at 17:00 today, the MSTU/USDT perpetual contract will go live. Using USDT, you can directly trade a 2x long MicroStrategy ETF contract.
MSTU tracks the 2x MicroStrategy MSTR. Previously, it could only be traded during U.S. stock market hours. This time, OKX settles in USDT, allowing 24/7 trading. The funding fee is deducted every 8 hours. In the same batch, there are also the STAR 50 ETF KSTR, mining company CYPH, and GitLab, scheduled to open successively between 17:15 and 17:45.
I glanced at the bottom of the announcement where the official notice in bold states that MSTU itself has daily 2x leverage. If the contract adds more leverage, the liquidation price will be very close to the cost. MicroStrategy holds all Bitcoin. Currently, OKX's BTC spot price is quoted at 86,490 USDT. During the U.S. stock market closure, without a spot benchmark period, price gaps are most likely to occur.
This afternoon, I first added it to my favorites on the app's contract market page. After the 17:00 opening, I will observe the bid-ask spread and funding rate of the first two 15-minute candlesticks. Before the order book depth fills several hundred lots, I will avoid placing large market orders outside of market hours.I’m getting close to my limit. I’m planning to give the trade one more day, but if the market still refuses to pull back, I’ll have to accept the loss and close the position. Honestly, this entire move has been stressful. My biggest fear is BTC suddenly ripping toward $90,000 and taking out my position. After going through this, I’ve learned an important lesson: I don’t want to stubbornly hold onto a losing position anymore. There’s no need to fight one trade to the bitter end. The market is fulHere's a contradictory signal for you: the $BTC price has basically been flat at a high level these past two days, but the market's fear and greed index has surged to "extreme greed." The price isn't rising, but the sentiment is already high—this is what I call a bearish divergence. A short squeeze can push the price up, but who ends up holding the bag afterward? It's those who rush in, seeing the screen full of profit opportunities and fearing missing out. The most dangerous moment in a market isn't usually a crash, but when everyone thinks they're guaranteed to make money without risk. Don't hold their bags when everyone else is greed to the extreme. Do you think this is greed, or a real bull run?The driving forces behind the three major mainstream coins $BTC $ETH $SOL have shifted from weak recovery to short-covering combined with ETF capital inflows. At this time, what should be more cautious about is not an immediate large pullback, but the market mistaking a short squeeze for a new trend, leading to chasing and adding positions near 86,000, 2,760, and 119.
BTC: Has reclaimed the long-term moving average, marking the strongest structural recovery in nearly 300 days. Supports at 85,200, 84,000, 83,000; resistances at 86,800, 87,400, 88,000-90,000. The 83,000-86,000 former short concentration zone has turned into short-term support. Medium-term bias is bullish, but the current price is better suited for waiting for a pullback rather than chasing highs.
ETH: On-chain and institutional funds continue to accumulate. Supports at 2,700, 2,640-2,560; resistances at 2,800, 2,890, 3,000. 2,700 is a key dividing line: holding above it means 2,800-3,000 can still be tested; breaking below points to support near 2,640.
SOL: ETF inflows are present, with contract positions relatively high. Supports at 114, 110-107; resistances at 120, 123-125. Maintaining strength above 114; a break below requires caution for a pullback. Leverage is heating up faster than spot demand.
The total crypto market cap has returned to 3 trillion. Today's focus: US PMI data and the meeting window between Trump and General Secretary Xi.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 Before this market move occurred, the area around 84,000 to 85,000 USD was already recognized by the market as a dense short liquidation zone. Derivatives analysis shows that when BTC was still trading around 78,300 USD, there was a clear short liquidation zone between 84,000 and 85,000 USD, while 82,300 USD was the important upper boundary of the previous 30-day consolidation range. Therefore, when BTC broke through 82,000 USD, a typical shortsqueeze began: price rises → shorts approach liquidation line → forced buy to close positions → BTC continues to rise → more shorts get liquidated. This explains why the price did not slowly rise from 82,000 USD to 84,000 USD but accelerated rapidly after the breakout. Initially, when BTC broke through 84,000 USD, TECHi estimated about 252 million USD in short positions were liquidated in a short time. But looking back now, 84,000 USD clearly was not the end point of this squeeze. As BTC continued to break through 85,000 USD, the liquidation scale further expanded. In the past 24 hours, more than 750 million USD worth of positions have been liquidated across the market, of which 648.3 million USD were short positions. Subsequently, BTC continued to surge past 87,000 USD #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 🔥 From the program logic perspective on this big bullish candle of DORA: it is a one-time sudden request, not a stable long connection. $BTC $DORA
Short-term volume breakout above the moving average, but after the surge, it clearly pulled back, indicating a pulse market.
It's like a temporarily triggered interface, prone to timeout and callbacks.
👉 Operation advice:
Do not chase the high. If you want to participate, wait for a pullback near 0.0028, while observing if the volume can stabilize.
For holders, 0.0045 above is strong resistance; if the surge lacks volume, reduce positions in batches.
Writing code and trading are the same: prioritize avoiding unpredictable abnormal fluctuations.
⚠️ This is only market observation and does not constitute trading advice. Virtual assets are highly volatile, and virtual currency trading speculation is strictly prohibited domestically. Please view rationally and stay away from trading.
💬: Would you try to game this sudden spike and pullback?$HYPE rushes toward $100, with ecosystem expansion beginning to extend from perpetual trading to "collateral demand + compliance entry" driven
According to OKX market data, $HYPE is currently priced at $97.04, up 4.03% in 24 hours, reaching an intraday high of $97.84.
The first source of demand growth comes from on-chain lending.
Hyperliquid allows users to collateralize HYPE to borrow USDC or USDT, with the underlying loan assets reaching $269 million on the first day, enabling holders to gain liquidity without selling their coins.
However, the maximum loan-to-value ratio of 65% also increases liquidation flexibility during price drops.
The second source comes from distribution channels.
Payward plans to bring HIP-3 perpetual contracts to approved U.S. customers through Bitnomial and NinjaTrader; if regulatory approval is granted, the deployer must stake 500,000 HYPE.
However, there is currently no approval result or launch date.
Additionally, the first L2 testnet of the Hyperliquid ecosystem has gone live.
Elysium uses HYPE as native gas, aiming to connect more spot and DeFi applications to the Hyperliquid ecosystem, with future development depending on on-chain activity and ecosystem growth.
If lending scale, HIP-3 staking, and Elysium usage continue to grow, $HYPE's demand sources will be broader than just trading fees.
Price often leads expectations; if it cannot translate into real revenue growth soon, $100 will become a strong sell pressure point. BCH and UNI have both been included in CME's futures program this time. On the surface, it looks like the same news, but in fact, the logic behind the two is completely different.
Let's first look at $BCH.
The core logic of BCH is mainstream payment asset + institutional trading entry.
After CME launches BCH futures, institutions can participate in BCH price exposure through compliant derivatives, as well as hedge and manage risks.
So the most direct change for BCH this time is the further improvement of trading infrastructure and institutional participation channels.
Now let's look at $UNI.
UNI's logic is not about payments, but about DeFi infrastructure and tokenized exposure to the leading DEX.
Uniswap itself is an important infrastructure for decentralized trading, and UNI's market narrative revolves more around DeFi, on-chain trading volume, protocol governance, and future value capture.
So don't mix the two:
BCH focuses on institutional trading, liquidity, and payment narratives.
UNI focuses on DeFi fundamentals, on-chain trading, and protocol value capture.
The simultaneous launch of futures for both by CME also has different significance.
For BCH, it adds an institutional trading entry for a well-established mainstream asset;
for UNI, it means traditional financial markets further incorporate the DeFi leader into the compliant derivatives system.
One leans towards payments and institutional trading,
one leans towards DeFi and on-chain finance.
Both directions are worth continuing to watch. A single short position of 38,000 $ZEC is carrying more than $35 million in unrealized losses, and the entire market can watch it bleed in real time. That is the strange new condition of on-chain transparency: a whale's pain is no longer private. It is a public coordinate, and coordinates attract price. The mechanics sit on Hyperliquid, where the largest $ZEC liquidation wall clusters near $1,550, holding roughly $20.4 million of short liquidity. Neighboring walls are less than a quarter of thatSeptember 23 $SNDK Market Analysis: Daily chart further breaks through, the 2000 level may be challenged again!
Yesterday, Sandisk's analysis was that after the evening opening, it might hit 1865-1880 before pulling back. We also opened short positions and took profits. Fortunately, we closed at the previous high of 1840; it rebounded after hitting the previous high. This time, the trader Di Zi really acted like a pro 🤡
Back to the current daily chart, yesterday's close has already surpassed the previous equal highs, which is the primary factor for a breakout. However, last night it was still suppressed by orders on the left side and pulled back. If this level is broken through later, the daily resistance at 2070-2120 will be in sight, so Di Zi's next move is worth looking forward to.
On the 4-hour chart, pay attention to whether the noon 12 o'clock close forms a bearish top pattern, which could cause a slight pullback during the day. After tonight's opening, watch for a possible rebound within the 1780-1790 range, so the 4-hour chart will retest the midline and rise again. This could also frustrate those who chased longs last night.
Therefore, today it might be necessary to change the strategy to going long, because the daily rhythm has already changed. The 2000 level is worth playing with small stop losses at key positions!Strive CEO: As the US dollar debt crisis erupts, Bitcoin could "rise to infinity"
Strive CEO Matt Cole recently said in an interview: Bitcoin against the US dollar can theoretically rise to "infinity."
Sounds ridiculous, right? But his logic is not that Bitcoin will infinitely appreciate, but that the US dollar may keep depreciating.
US debt keeps growing, and the fiscal deficit persists long-term. If in the end debt is still absorbed by issuing bonds, expanding the balance sheet, and currency devaluation, then the US dollar as a "ruler" itself is constantly shrinking.
On the other hand, the total supply of Bitcoin is only 21 million.
So the question arises:
If the US dollar can keep increasing but Bitcoin cannot be infinitely issued, then is Bitcoin getting more expensive or is the US dollar becoming worthless?
This is also the most controversial part of this statement.
Bitcoin rising to 1 million, 5 million, or even higher does not necessarily mean holders are insanely rich; it may just indicate that fiat purchasing power has been severely diluted.
$BTC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Many people can't distinguish between spot and futures until the day of liquidation. $BTC surges and consolidates, and futures traders suffer the most—the direction doesn't emerge, and leverage wears down your mindset first; a single spike leads to forced liquidation. Spot is different; it can withstand volatility. As long as what you hold has logic, no matter how long it consolidates, there's no fear. That's why I can keep my perpetual futures empty-handed, but always hold the spot I should. Tools aren't right or wrong; the mistake is using leveraged positions that get liquidated to bet on a direction you can't even clearly define. Are you holding a position now, or just a gamble?$BTC volume contraction topping at 87K meets supply, will there be a pullback before the 9/25 options? BTC 86,570 (+1.24%), ETH 2,766 (+1.28%), total market cap 2.95T. ETF single-day inflow 999 million, shorts liquidations account for 80%. Conclusion first: short-term pullback probability is higher than a direct surge to 90K, mid-to-long term bullish structure remains unchanged. Holding above 87,400 targets 90K; breaking below 85,100 means demand exhaustion, expect a pullback first. Volume contraction breakout meets supply, main players are setting short positions at 87K. Will 87,400 hold? Brothers, which side are you on? #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
Behind the positive signals, the negotiation framework is highly asymmetrical.
The core objective is to convey the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz:
The U.S. must immediately lift the maritime blockade, unfreeze all Iranian assets, and end wars on all regional fronts.
A senior Iranian official stated that if the U.S. lifts the blockade, Iran can reopen the strait within 7 days.
The U.S. stance is equally complex. On the day of the UN General Assembly opening, Trump first claimed he could quickly "destroy" Iran, then later said he did not rule out reaching an agreement after the midterm elections in November, directly linking Iran's negotiation willingness to the domestic political schedule.Federal Reserve officials are making intensive statements: How much longer will rate hikes last? Combined with the central bank's statement yesterday, there is an interesting contradiction in this round of market trends.
On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, while also stating that inflation remains elevated; Recently, officials like Moussalem have continued to signal that further tightening may be necessary. Moussalem even believes that if tightening is not done further, the risk of inflation significantly exceeding the 2% target in the next 18 months is greater.
So now, what the market is really trading is no longer about "whether to raise rates in September," but where the end of this round of rate hikes will end and how long high rates will last.
If inflation continues to exceed target and the Fed continues to raise rates or extend the period of high interest rates, the dollar and Treasury yields may continue to put pressure on BTC, gold, and overvalued tech stocks; Conversely, if economic data starts to cool significantly and inflation falls in tandem, the market may trade for an early "end of rate hikes," easing liquidity pressure on risk assets.
Interestingly, BTC has not weakened directly due to the Fed's hawkish stance; instead, it has rebounded to previous highs. This indicates that other forces are currently supporting the BTC market, including global risk appetite, institutional funds, and short covering.
Let's look at the People's Bank of China's statement yesterday.
On September 22, the People's Bank of China reiterated that conducting virtual currency-related business domestically constitutes illegal financial activities, and clearly stated that without legal and regulatory approval, RMB-linked stablecoins cannot be issued abroad.
At the same time, the People's Bank of China made this clear at the symposium with foreign financial institutionsI'm impressed, ZEC.
It first surged to 1598, then suddenly dropped to 1442. I almost thought the bears were about to turn the tide and was ready to place orders at 1300. But it just brushed 1442 and bounced straight back to 1550, reclaiming over a hundred dollars on the spot. This isn't a drop, it's pure baiting; with a slight shake of the line, all the shorts got caught.
Recently, those shorting it have been scared off, from 1130–1150 up to around 1500, more than thirty points. Every time it retraced, someone bought in, then it kept pushing up, like there's a magnet at the bottom. BTC is back above 86000, and the major altcoins are taking turns to rally.
ZEC is now at 1600; if it can hold steady, 1800 is worth a look, but don't get overexcited. Shorts are temporarily scared off; short if you want.
$ZEC $ETH $BTC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 $UNI current price 10.75, 24h surge of 18.38%, trading volume 225.5M USDT, funding rate +0.0226%, fear and greed index at 71, in the greed zone. MA5=10.5422 crosses above MA20=9.53585, MACD histogram +0.1571 maintaining bullish momentum, but RSI has soared to 77.0, price 10.75 closely hugging the upper Bollinger band at 10.8787, 30 K-line amplitude about 21%, clear short-term overheating signal.
From the funding perspective, a positive rate of 0.0226% means longs must continuously pay to hold positions; if the price stagnates, long costs will accumulate quickly, easily triggering long position reductions or even cascading liquidations, with spike risk concentrated near the 10.88 upper band. However, the trend structure remains intact, MA5 is still short-term support, and bears pressing against the trend here is not cost-effective; more likely is a high-level turnover before setting direction. Currently, funds still lean bullish, but the cost-effectiveness of chasing highs is decreasing.
Operationally, the preference is to buy on dips rather than chase highs: entry reference 10.30–10.55, corresponding to MA5 support and breakout retest zone; take profit 1 at 10.88 (upper Bollinger band, first touch likely resistance), take profit 2 at 11.50 (measured extension after breaking upper band); stop loss at 9.95 (breaking below MA5 and losing the 10 whole number level, weakening the bullish logic).On September 23, UNI hit $10.85, reaching a new high since "1011." It rose 18% in 24 hours, climbing from 2.31 to 10.8 in three months, an increase of over 360%.
The comment section has already split.
Some are shouting "to 20," while others quietly placed sell orders. An address withdrew 1 million UNI from Coinbase two hours ago at an average price of 10.07—not selling, but taking it away.
On the same day, whale sell pressure data surged to 71%, with buy pressure only 20%.
Big funds are accumulating, large holders are exiting, and retail investors are chasing.
This is not a contradiction. These are three types of people with three completely different strategies.
Short-term traders (1-7 days): Don’t chase. Entering now means you’re handing your position to the whales.
RSI has already surged to 84.36. The textbook says 70 is overbought; what does 84 mean? When UNI surged to $45 in 2021, the daily RSI was at a similar level.
Funding rate is -1%, long-short ratio 0.56x, long squeeze probability 25%. Translation: too many longs, too few shorts; perpetual contracts are using longs’ money to subsidize shorts. If the price consolidates for more than two days, longs will start a stampede themselves.
Strategy:
Do not enter at the current price. Those who FOMO in will likely cut losses at the first pullback 90% of the time.
Wait for a pullback to the 8.80-9.00 range (near EMA7). Look for two signals: volume contraction + a lower shadow candle. Only consider a light position if both conditions are met.
Stop loss: 8.20. If broken, exit immediately, no explanation.
Target: sell half at 10.50, set take profit for the rest at 11.80.
Short sellers shouldn’t celebrate too early either. Open interest is increasing but without new buying support; this divergence can go either way, so shorting is also a gamble before direction emerges.
Swing traders (2-6 weeks): Keep a close eye on September 29. This day will decide if UNI falls back to 8 or pushes to 15.
Robinhood Wallet has provided 90 days of Gas subsidies since mainnet launch, enabling "zero-cost" free trading to boost volume. The subsidy is expected to expire around September 29.
This is not trivial.
Uniswap accounts for 77%-98% of trading volume on Robinhood Chain, with half of protocol revenue coming from this chain. The free Gas created a false sense of prosperity.
How much will volume drop once subsidies end? No one knows.
If volume drops less than 30% → it indicates real demand, and UNI is likely to hold above 10. Enter after daily close above 10.00, target 12-14.
If volume crashes → UNI will return to the 5.8-6.5 range, which is the real value buy zone.
Key verification data: daily burn volume on Robinhood Chain from Dune. August peak single-day burn was 178,000 UNI, worth over $1.11 million, with Robinhood Chain contributing over 80%. If after September 29 this number falls below 50,000, it means the flywheel has stalled.
The essence of swing trading is not prediction but waiting for signals. Better to miss the first wave than to bet during maximum uncertainty.
Long-term holders (6 months+): You’re not buying a coin, you’re buying a money-printing machine in motion.
Let’s clarify this.
UNI had zero cash flow from 2020 to 2025. Uniswap processes trillions in volume annually; all fees go to LPs, and UNI holders get nothing. This is why it fell from 45 to 2.31.
In December 2025, the fee switch will pass, and on July 27, 2026, it will officially activate on v4. Protocol daily revenue will jump from $118,000 to $318,000, a 2.7x increase. Robinhood Chain alone contributes $168,000 daily, half of the entire network.
This money doesn’t go to Labs’ accounts. It goes to TokenJar. To take it out, UNI must be burned first.
On September 4, 184,000 UNI were burned in a single day, worth over $1.15 million—the protocol’s first million-dollar-level burn day. Robinhood Chain contributed 150,000 UNI.
This is not a buyback. Buybacks are paid by the project. This is arbitrageurs competing to burn.
Long-term logic doesn’t require daily monitoring. You only need to answer one question: can RWA (Real World Assets) trading volume take over from Meme?
If tokenized stock trading volume on Robinhood Chain continues to grow in Q4, UNI burn volume will rise, accelerating the deflationary flywheel. A $100 price target is not a fantasy. If RWA fails to take off and Meme declines, burn volume will shrink, requiring reassessment.
Dollar-cost averaging range: below 5.50, in batches. No target price, only validation points.
What everyone must know:
The September FOMC 25bp rate hike has been implemented, raising the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4%. The dot plot shows one more hike this year, with market expectations for another hike before year-end rising from 80% to 86.5%.
Macro is tightening. UNI is a high Beta asset; if BTC falls 5%, UNI falling 15% is normal.
Don’t use high leverage to bet on direction, no matter how confident you think you are.
$BTC $UNI $HOOD #AI stocks continue to rise, what other investment opportunities are there?
MET, MUBARAK, and BCH all appear on the gainers list, but their capital patterns are completely different:
MUBARAK is a short-term pulse, with strong explosive power but quickly declining volume, carrying extremely high risk;
MET and BCH steadily rise along the moving averages, with a more stable structure and more sustained capital inflow. Slow and steady wins the race, don’t rush
Just like development, temporary scripts going live are prone to bugs; only programs with stable architecture have long-term reliability.
Short-term speculative coins are only suitable for observation; certainty is always more important than windfall profits.
💬: Do you prefer to catch pulse opportunities or stick to stable trends? $NVDAB $META $BTC CME is going to launch futures for BCH and UNI
On October 19, standard contracts plus Micro contracts will be available once regulatory approval is completed
As soon as the news came out, BCH rose 31%, and UNI rose nearly 20%. The market voted with its feet
Previously, only BTC and ETH had futures; now BCH and UNI do too. What does this mean?
It means institutions are starting to treat altcoins as "legitimate assets." Previously, altcoins could only be traded spot; now with regulated futures trading tools, big money can finally come in
UNI is even more special. It just received SEC tokenized stock exemption last week, rising 21%. This week it also got CME futures; regulators and institutions are both opening doors for it. An AMM protocol first cleared by policy, then integrated by exchanges, and now even CME is launching futures for it. This is not just a coin rising, but a protocol gaining recognition from the mainstream financial system
But I have to pour cold water: BCH rose 31%, UNI nearly 20%, these are "event-driven" gains. When it really goes live on October 19, if volume and open interest don't keep up, these gains will have to be given back. Realizing the positive is not the end, but the start of the test
CME launching futures for altcoins is more important than any price breakout. Because what it changes is not the price, but the rules
Do you think CME launching futures is the springtime for altcoins, or the start of the good news being fully priced in?
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $UNI $BCH $BTC