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On @Base, on-chain lending is taking off vertically.
The on-chain active collateral in the vaults of @Morpho and @Coinbase has increased from $1.5 billion to $3.5 billion year-to-date, a growth of about 133%.
Both borrowing and lending volumes are expanding simultaneously, indicating that real capital is starting to earn deposit and loan yields on Base, not just speculating on memes.
This is the most direct evidence that "on-chain finance is replacing part of TradFi deposits and loans"—@Base is capturing not just traffic, but the underlying financial infrastructure.Data released last night showed that the preliminary US September PMI rose to 58.4, the highest since July 2021. After the data was released, the 10-year US Treasury yield jumped to 5.058%, breaking its highest level since 2007. Bitcoin immediately fell from $87,000 to below $84,000, leading to the liquidation of $280 million long positions in the market. $BTC Additionally, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week, marking its first rate hike since July 2023. When 10-year US Treasuries can deliver annualized returns above 5%, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin becomes 5%, a figure that directly weakens Bitcoin's appeal to allocation funds. This round of Bitcoin's rebound itself is based on liquidity tightening. Although earlier this week Bitcoin broke above $86,000, triggering concentrated short covering and causing the price to quickly approach $87,000. However, it now appears that this momentum has been temporarily worn down by last night's yield surge. When the forced buying rebound depends on exhaustion and new spot demand has yet to catch up, prices may lose brief support, which is the general reason for last night's sudden pullback. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently facing considerable delivery pressure. On Friday, Deribit will have about $15.9 billion in Bitcoin options expiring, accounting for 37% of the platform's total $43.5 billion in Bitcoin options open interest. Of these, call options account for about 60%, with a put/call ratio of only 0.69, indicating that the market previously mainly bet on the upside. Among the approximately $9.4 billion call options,$SOL I was feeling pretty bad today, but opening my account made me feel a bit better, at least it wasn't all for nothing.
Before the market fully kicked off, SOL was hovering around 108.59, quietly attracting funds, volume gradually picking up, so I casually dropped a bullish signal. Now at 115.29, +616.99%, this gain feels good.✨
Hold as long as the trend holds, run if it breaks, don’t fall in love with stocks.
Take 70% off the table first, keep the remaining 30% at cost as protection, let profits run if it keeps going. Even if you only make one point, as long as you can take it away, it’s yours; any floating profit beyond that belongs to the market.
There are still opportunities, don’t rush, wait for a new structure to emerge, don’t chase hard at this position.
$ADA $XRP
CME just confirmed BCH and UNI futures go live Oct. 19, pending regulatory review.
The market didn't wait for launch day.
BCH: +28%
Spot volume: +285.6%
Open interest: +38.7%
Here's the strange part 👀
Zero futures contracts have traded yet. So what is the market actually pricing in?
CME's setup: standard BCH futures at 250 BCH/contract, plus Micro contracts at 25 BCH.
Meaning — this move is about future institutional access, not current institutional flow.
Also worth noting: BCH and UNI aren'tSpot Bitcoin ETFs have reversed to a net inflow of about +$349 million year-to-date, which is more important than calling 87K.
Galaxy's monthly net inflow chart clearly shows: since April, the cumulative year-to-date net inflow of US spot Bitcoin ETFs has finally returned to positive territory.
The chart is marked up to September 23, 2026, with a YTD of about +$349M.
Simply put: institutions have already made up for the net redemptions in the first half of the year, but the price has pulled back somewhat from the 87K level.
My view: don't rush to chase the rally or sell off now; watch if the funds continue to flow in before talking about new highs.
My approach: position size only follows whether ETF net inflows remain continuously positive; if YTD turns negative or the price breaks below recent pullback lows, this judgment fails.
Trust the reversal to positive more, or trust the price pullback more?
$BTC $IBIT $FBTC
#BTC surges to $87000, crypto total market cap returns to 3 trillion #US-Iran 3-hour talks release positive signals?$APT Long-term review.
This trade had a clear entry zone from the start: 0.7712-0.7746; the price did not accept below this range but held it. Holding this range was the first confirmation that buyers still controlled the situation. The bullish side was "cleaner" than the bearish side because the price held the range and expanded upward, rather than breaking down and forcing a reversal. The RSI near the entry was around 50.0, indicating room for further development in this trend. As the price continued to rise, the RSI near the target increased to about 75.85, confirming strong momentum in the final sprint phase. TP1 at 0.7854 confirmed the first reaction; TP2 at 0.7937 showed continuation; and TP3 at 0.8061 completed the full target sequence. Before reaching TP3, the stop loss at 0.7563 was not triggered. A "clean" result executed according to the original plan. It's only been a week since the interest rate hike landed, and the Federal Reserve has already shifted the topic to the next round.
Barkin: Over 60% of PCE components remain above 3%, inflation is more stubborn than it appears. Collins: The risk of inflation exceeding 2% is still rising. Musalem is more direct: further tightening may still be needed.
CME shows a 54.2% probability of another 25 basis points hike in October. The market pricing is no longer for the "last time," but for a new phase of tightening expectations.
Previously, Walsh resisted pressure and pressed the rate hike button. Now the suspense is: how many more times? Officials' tone is more hawkish than before the hike.
The 10-year US Treasury yield remains near 5%, and the 30-year mortgage rate is 6.95%. If there is another move in October, rates will only go higher; risk assets face not whether they will rise, but how long valuations can hold.
Bitcoin is around 86,000, rising rather than falling after the rate hike. Funds are betting on "limited rate hikes," betting there won't be consecutive moves.
If there really is a hike in October, the current rebound is overextending optimism; if not, those out of the market will chase at higher levels.
The biggest fear is not a single hike, but rate hikes becoming the norm.
In October, are you betting on a hike or a pause?
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Reason for the decline — no sudden bad news
• From the peak of $87,374, adjusted down to ~$84k = -3.8% after 11 consecutive days of increase (+14%) → natural profit-taking, completely normal
• Expectation of Fed rate cut in November dropped from 81% → 72% → market cautious, withdrawing capital from altcoins, holding BTC
• ETF capital flow still positive but slowing down → institutions not selling, just pausing large purchases at the peak
• No ban, no exchange crash, no structural break → just "breathing" after a fast run
$BTC
#BTC87KCryptoCap3T ZEC whales couldn't hold on anymore; all 48,000 short positions were liquidated at market price, resulting in a loss of over 45 million USD.
Interestingly, this trader isn't purely speculative—they still hold a large amount of ZEC spot without moving it. These shorts are essentially spot hedges, not directional bets. Even the hedging positions couldn't withstand the stop loss, indicating how intense the previous short squeeze was.
During liquidation, buy orders pushed the price up, but after closing, the buying pressure instantly collapsed, and the price dropped sharply from 1680 to 1484, a 4.44% decline in one day. The SUPER TREND at 1537 was broken, signaling clear short-term weakness.
However, the medium to long term remains intact. The NU7 upgrade is underway, with the testnet launching on October 6 and the mainnet targeted for November 5. The price has risen 81% in 30 days, 262% in 90 days, and 577% in 180 days—the strong bull market structure is still in place, just undergoing a short-term correction.
Whale cut losses usually signify the end of a phase. Whether this is a reversal or a continuation depends on whether the 1478 support holds in the coming days.
$ZEC Bitcoin has slipped below $85,000, and this time, the positive headlines failed to provide any meaningful support. The US and Iran held three hours of talks. Oil prices fell below $100, and Bitcoin ETFs reportedly recorded nearly $1.6 billion in inflows over three consecutive days. Yet BTC moved in the opposite direction, falling from $87,000 to $84,000, with OKX recording a low of $83,856. So, why couldn't Bitcoin rally despite all these bullish catalysts? 1️⃣ Positive Headlines Don't NecessariLast night, $BTC finally brought my position back to breakeven. The moment I saw zero profit and zero loss, I immediately closed everything and walked away. But guess what? Just a few minutes later, the market moved higher. If I had held on a little longer, I could’ve walked away with some extra profit. That feeling really hurts. Before going to sleep, I was convinced another sharp correction was coming. So, I sold all my spot holdings in $UNI, $HYPE, and $OKB, thinking I was protecting my capit$DOGE: Rebound Shorting
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 0.096-0.0975 range (MA10/MA20 death cross resistance zone) and then enter a short position after resistance.
· The initial target is the previous low at 0.09103; if broken effectively, hold until 0.088; stop loss set above 0.100.
Core basis:
1. Rare double kill of chips: nominal long-short ratio is 186%! Long positions heavily held at 97.33 million U (average price 0.0991), short positions at 52.16 million U (average price 0.0899). Current price is 0.0929, meaning both longs and shorts are basically at a loss! The DOGE whales excel at this kind of "long-short double kill" shakeout. But combined with the 4-hour K-line, after the plunge from 0.1059, the major trend has completely turned bearish, and the whales are very likely to first target the high-position longs.
2. Bearish moving average alignment: On the 4-hour level, MA5, MA10, and MA20 all turn downward forming a death cross; the 0.096-0.0975 range has shifted from support to strong resistance. The slight volume contraction rebound near 0.0929 is a typical bearish continuation bull trap.
3. Resistance and risk-reward ratio: Funding rate is slightly negative (-0.0012%), long sentiment has collapsed but no panic selling has occurred. There is dense trapped long positions in the 0.096-0.10 range above, limiting rebound space. Chasing longs now has a very poor risk-reward ratio; following the trend to short is the best strategy.
#Apple、Google招聘稳定币相关人才，或进军加密支付？ People have no idea how ¨easy¨ or ¨not savage¨ crypto-markets have become
in the past:
- multiple -30% corrections were normal in bullmarkets on btc
- multiple -70% corrections on alts were normal in bullmarkets
- there were no stablecoins to go into, trading was against btc
- there were no perps/futures/all kind of products to hedge
- there were no massive market makers that provide liquidity and can back-stop the market
- many exchange hacks happened.
#DailyOrbit #BTC87KCryptoCap3T CORE (Core DAO): A New Layer1 Narrative Combining Bitcoin Hashrate and EVM
CORE is a Layer1 public chain positioned as "Bitcoin security + EVM compatibility," with its core innovation being the Satoshi Plus hybrid consensus mechanism. This mechanism attempts to link Bitcoin's hashrate security with an Ethereum-style smart contract ecosystem, allowing BTC holders to participate in staking through CLTV time locks and earn CORE token rewards, thereby building a BTCFi ecosystem closed loop.
However, its token economic model has obvious concerns. With a total supply of 2.1 billion tokens and a release cycle lasting up to 81 years, inflationary pressure persists. Early reward contract vulnerabilities once triggered fears of overissuance; although some tokens were destroyed via a hard fork, market trust has been impacted. The current price has retraced over 99% from its historical peak, and ecosystem applications like lstBTC and SatPay are still in early stages, with real revenue and buyback mechanisms yet to be fully validated.
Overall, CORE's narrative has certain innovation, but heavy token sell pressure and difficult trust repair remain challenges. In the short term, it is more advisable to focus on its BTC staking security logic rather than the speculative value of the CORE token.
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
#OKX星球话题来啦 The decline has arrived as expected.
Recently, everywhere people were shouting that the bull market is coming, gold is about to hit 5000, and Bitcoin will rise above 9000. I expressed a different opinion in the comments and got quite a bit of criticism.
But remember, this is just the beginning, the risks have not been resolved yet. Focus on two major events on the 24th and 25th: the China-US talks and the US-Iran negotiations.
Let's first consider the more likely scenario: negotiations fail. If talks break down, Brent crude oil could easily rise above $100. The 10-year US Treasury yield will stabilize above 5%, the 30-year yield will reach 5.3%, real interest rates will rise, and risk assets like gold and Bitcoin will come under pressure.
The less likely scenario is a smooth US-Iran reconciliation or China stepping in to promote the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. But many things this time cannot be decided unilaterally by Trump.
If negotiations fail, the September 30 PCE is estimated at 3.3%-3.4%, far above the Fed's 2% target. Oil and diesel prices remain high, and inflation is sticky. When the October CPI is released in November, if the data continues to exceed expectations and stays above 3.4%, the market will reignite rate hike expectations, pushing the probability of a rate hike to 80%, and gold and Bitcoin will continue to face downward pressure.
The real opportunity window is likely on the eve of the rate hike on October 25-26, or after the rate hike is implemented, when a phase low might be formed. Of course, this depends on how oil prices perform at that time. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Gold and silver如果这波反弹只是少数大票在撑场，那么接下来的回落可能比想象中更快。 你看到的，是风险偏好真的回来了，还是只是被逼空推着走？ BTC 从 81K 弹到 86K 附近，表面是价格修复，但更值得看的是资金愿意在什么位置接。83K 到 86K 这个区间像一块试金石，守住它，说明短线资金还愿意承担波动；一旦丢掉 83K，这轮上冲很容易被重新定义成一次情绪脉冲，而不是趋势反转。 ETH 在 2.75K 附近站稳，并且已经越过 2.66K，结构上比 BTC 更早给出确认信号。它现在扮演的是放大器：如果 ETH 能继续守住 2.56K 到 2.60K 的防守带，说明资金不只是在买龙头，还愿意往风险曲线更靠前的位置挪。这对山寨的情绪是加分项。 SOL 在 118 附近试 120 到 123，这个位置很关键。它不像 BTC 那样代表宏观情绪，也不像 ETH 那样代表结构确认，它更像风险偏好的体温计。冲过去并站稳，说明市场敢为高波动资产付更高溢价；冲不上去，就说明资金还是偏谨慎，只敢围着确定性更高的标的打转。 我自己的感觉是，现在市场交易的并不是"全面转牛"，而是"选择性冒险"。BTC 负责定方向，ETH 3 billion USD, 2 billion has already been received.
My first reaction wasn't about how impressive this fund is, but rather—when I first entered the circle, if someone told me "the son of a certain big shot is raising funds," I would most likely take it as huge positive news and jump in.
Now looking at this news, the only thought in my mind is: lots of money, what does it have to do with retail investors?
1789 Capital, Trump's son is a partner, the second growth fund, target 3 billion. Sounds impressive. But this money is invested in startups, not to buy up in the secondary market. Fundraising is still ongoing, and the final amount might be even more.
The biggest misunderstanding newcomers have is treating "big shot fundraising" as "the market rally is coming."
Actually, these two things are worlds apart.
I won't make a move yet. I'll wait until they really invest in something, then I'll take another look.
#特朗普提议AI更名“超级智能” $ZEC Brothers, this $BICO long position was entered at 0.02294 with 3x leverage. After the market surged, it has been falling all the way down. The mark price is now 0.02137, with an unrealized loss directly at -20.53%.
Watching the market keep dropping, my heart has been uneasy, afraid it will continue down and trigger a forced liquidation. I originally thought a rebound would let me take profit smoothly, but the market reversed and trapped me.
Now I'm just waiting for a rebound opportunity, not greedy, just planning to reduce my position and exit once a suitable level is reached. Trading futures really can't have illusions; enduring unrealized losses is so painful. If I can break even or take a small loss this time, I'll just consider it tuition paid to the market. The crazy coin market is unpredictable; next time I won't easily bottom-fish to go long.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 ✳️ About $15.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire tomorrow, primarily traded on the Deribit platform, involving approximately 182,000 BTC in open contracts.
$BTC $ETH
📊 【Core Data Breakdown】
▶ Bulls dominate: This includes 106,200 call options and 75,900 put options. The current put/call ratio is 0.71, indicating a strong overall market expectation for price increases.
⚠️ Maximum pain point: Friday's maximum pain price is $76,000! This figure is far below Bitcoin's current price of about $85,000. This means option sellers (usually institutional market makers) have a strong incentive to push prices down or fiercely defend the highs.
💡 【Disappearance of Hedging Liquidity】
Options traders need to hedge risks by buying or selling actual Bitcoin. As contracts expire, this hedging liquidity will inevitably vanish. Once the support from spot hedging disappears, market depth will instantly thin out, and even slight fluctuations can easily trigger sharp price spikes.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/24 08:09)
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $NEAR: Short on the rebound
Strategy:
· Wait for the price to rebound to the 4.35-4.45 range (MA20 and previous dense trading area) and then enter short.
· The initial target is the previous low at 4.02; if broken effectively, hold until 3.80; stop loss set above 4.55.
Core basis:
1. Imbalance in chip game: The nominal long-short ratio is as high as 391%! Bulls hold nearly 100 million U, shorts only 25 million U. The average long price is 3.70, with a floating profit of 13.26 million U, but failed to exit at the high of 4.81, and profits are being eroded continuously. Meanwhile, the short profit ratio is as high as 70.5%, indicating strong short activity at the high. This crowded long position is the fattest meat in the eyes of the market manipulators.
2. Comprehensive breakdown on the chart: On the 4-hour level, there was a cliff dive from 4.816, directly breaking through the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving average defenses, with the moving averages turning downward to form strong resistance. The current low-volume sideways consolidation near 4.27 is a typical bull trap after a big drop, not a stable reversal.
3. Resistance and risk-reward ratio: There is a dense trapped position in the 4.35-4.45 range above, and the bulls’ confidence has been shattered by a large bearish candle. The funding rate remains positive (0.0100%), retail investors are still stubbornly holding or blindly bottom-fishing. At this point, chasing longs has a very poor risk-reward ratio; following the trend to short is the best strategy.
Slowly boiling the frog is the deadliest; the bulls’ profits are just a temporary ATM for the manipulators. Shorts are already positioned, waiting for this wave of bullish sentiment to completely collapse.
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ Try this approach:
Don't chase every narrative; open DefiLlama or similar platforms and filter only two types of projects—those with high and growing revenue, and where the revenue is genuinely distributed to token holders.
Money flows toward assets with cash flow as a norm.
Narratives will rotate, but the ones that can continuously pass income to tokens are the ones worth holding.☯️ 9.24｜BTC returns near 84,000, ETH falls below 2700. After a rapid rise, a pullback comes; today, watch for support first, don't rush to guess the bottom.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
Today is the year of Bingwu, month of Dingyou, day of Xinchou. Xin metal sits on Chou earth, using this imagery to remind myself: after the rise, first stabilize the foundation.
BTC around $84,383, down about 2.2% in 24 hours, range 83,500–87,283. Support at 83,800–84,200, strong support at 82,800–83,200; resistance at 85,000–85,500, strong resistance at 86,500–87,000. If it recovers 85,500 and holds after a pullback, then watch 86,500–87,000; if 84,000 breaks and the rebound fails to recover, watch for support near 83,000.
ETH around $2,689, down about 2.3% in 24 hours, range 2,635–2,789. Support at 2,620–2,650, strong support at 2,550–2,580; resistance at 2,700–2,730, strong resistance at 2,780–2,800. If it holds 2,730, then watch 2,780–2,800; if it breaks 2,620, focus on 2,550–2,580, don't treat every drop as a shakeout.
Today, wait for support confirmation or pullback after a breakout, do not chase the first rebound. Key levels reached do not necessarily mean reversal; if broken, control risk as planned.
Do you think BTC will recover 85,000 first, or ETH will hold 2,700 first?
For personal observation only, not investment advice.The first thing I do when I wake up in the morning is check the market, and BTC doesn't look good again. As of this morning, Bitcoin is quoted at $84,273, down 2.23% in 24 hours, having briefly dipped to $83,785 during the session, with the 84,000 level briefly lost. About $440 million worth of liquidations occurred across the entire network in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin-related liquidations accounting for $172 million, the longs getting hit the hardest. This morning, US PMI data unexpectedly surged, marking the fastest expansion since 2021, reigniting expectations of rate hikes. The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 14 basis points in a single day, breaking through the 5.0% mark, and the interest rate swap market has even started betting on a fourth rate hike within the next year. The US dollar index simultaneously strengthened above 101, and gold also fell below $4,300. As a non-interest-bearing asset, Bitcoin is naturally under pressure.
Although the price is falling, the ETF side is active. Morgan Stanley's MSBT Bitcoin ETF just received 1,100 BTC around midnight, approximately $93.89 million, marking the largest single inflow since the fund's inception. On one hand, longs are being liquidated; on the other, institutions are accumulating. This divergence is worth noting.
Personally, I feel that in the short term, BTC will likely consolidate between $83,000 and $86,000. But in the medium term, the sustained inflow of ETF funds is a positive signal. The Fear & Greed Index is still in the "Greed" zone, indicating that market sentiment hasn't collapsed. These are my personal views and do not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH $XAUT #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $CNPY sitting around $0.418 after that dip. Volume still there, price holding above the short MAs.
Canopy is the “spin up an appchain without building a whole L1” thing restake CNPY for security, launch from the Terminal. Mainnet only just went live so this tape is still messy.
$28M mcap vs $234M FDV is the part I’m watching. Thin liquidity, ugly wicks.
Seen this movie before. Just observing.
DYOR.
#BTC87KCryptoCap3T #USIranTalksProgress #CostcoQ4EarningsWatch @OKX中文 DOGE really wore out the bulls this round.
Here's a painful stat: currently, 73.6% of retail accounts on contracts are long, with a long-short ratio of 2.79. Even among whales, 79% are on the long side, meaning everyone is crowded on the same side.
So what happened to the price? It dropped over 8% in 24 hours, falling from 0.104 straight down to 0.093, hitting a low of 0.091. The more people gathered in one place, the easier it is to get a long squeeze—this isn't said without reason.
Some might say the funding rate has turned negative, shorts are paying, so a rebound is coming? I think don't rush; a negative funding rate means shorts are entering too. When both sides are this extreme, usually there's more shaking to come.
Looking at the broader market bleeding as well, BTC dropped 2.5%. In times like this, altcoins are most vulnerable to sudden hits.
My approach: at this position, I won't chase longs or catch falling knives. I'll wait until it stops falling, volume shrinks, and it stabilizes sideways. If it really moves, I’ll consider a light position if the 0.091 low holds and volume contracts; if volume breaks below 0.090, I'll just watch this round.
For those holding longs, set stop losses and don't stubbornly hold on. What do you think—is this a shakeout or a trend change for DOGE? Let's discuss in the comments.☀️ Uncle's Morning Report｜9.24 (Thursday) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌍 Summary in One Sentence Overnight US stocks retreated across the board, tech stocks came under pressure, BTC fell from around 87K to 84K. After continuous gains, profit-taking combined with changes in interest rate expectations has led the market into a short-term wait-and-see mode. 🪙 Crypto BTC and ETH both retreated, with BTC dipping to around 83.5K intraday. Uncle's observation: 82–83K is an important short-term support level; first watch if there is buying interest here. 🇺🇸 US Stocks The three major US indices all closed lower, with the Nasdaq showing a relatively larger decline and tech stocks undergoing a broad adjustment. Uncle's observation: The tech sector, which had significant gains earlier, is entering a digestion phase; today the focus is on whether funds will flow back. 🇨🇳 A-shares / 🇭🇰 Hong Kong Stocks Overnight US stocks weakened, coupled with cautious pre-holiday funds, the sentiment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks in the morning session may be somewhat affected. A-shares look for support near 3,900, Hong Kong stocks look for buying interest near 24,800, with tech growth still the main focus. 📅 Biggest Event Today The China-US leaders meet officially today. Xi Jinping has arrived in Washington; the market is paying attention to the meeting and subsequent public information. For the market, what is more worth watching is how funds reprice after the news is released. 💎 Uncle's View Today is not a day to chase highs but to observe support. After continuous rises, both US stocks and BTC are adjusting simultaneously, which is better understood as high-level digestion. As long as key levels hold, watch for a rebound.ETH is a bit awkward right now.
BTC has already surged past 87K, but ETH is still hovering around 2660.
Latest live prices approximately:
ETH: $2,665
Key resistance: $2,775–2,825
Support to watch: $2,560–2,600
I actually find this interesting.
If ETH can reclaim 2775 with volume, I’ll be looking toward around 3000.
If it can’t even hold 2560, then don’t rush to call it an “ETH catch-up rally.”
Because the market is already telling you:
It can rise.
But it needs to show trading volume first.
It’s like a job interview:
Saying “I’m strong” with words is useless,
You have to show your resume.
Next, I’m mainly watching 2775.
If it breaks through, I’ll keep watching how far the bulls can go;
If it falls below 2560, I’ll lower my excitement level for now.
Will keep updating if there are changes in live trading.The market is selling off, sentiment is turning defensive, and I’m choosing to watch the long side instead of chasing the panic. But the interesting part isn't the red candles. Look at the positioning. A large wallet reportedly accumulated around 1M UNI near the $9 area, while another fresh address withdrew roughly 1M UNI from Coinbase. At the same time, short positioning has become heavily crowded. That doesn't guarantee a short squeeze—but when positioning becomes this one-sided, even a relatiThe most dangerous thing about this BTC wave is not the drop.
It's that it just surged to 87K, then turned around and scared people back to 84K.
Current live market view:
BTC: about 84.2K
Previous high: about 87.36K
Short-term support: 83K–84K
Resistance above: 87K–90K
My judgment is simple:
If 84K holds, there's still a chance to retest 87K today.
If 87K breaks out with volume, I'll be looking at 90K next.
But if it breaks below 83K directly, don't be stubborn; the probability of retesting around 81K will significantly increase.
The current market looks a lot like this:
Bulls say "90K soon."
Bears say "70K soon."
And BTC:
"You guys argue first, I'll take a couple more steps."
I'll keep watching the live market and update immediately if there's a real breakout later.Ethereum pushed up toward $2,790 yesterday but once again failed to hold the move. The $2,780–$2,800 region has now rejected price several times, turning it into an important supply zone. Three attempts, three failures. That tells me there is still significant selling pressure around this area. Traders who bought higher may also be using every rebound to reduce their positions. Right now ETH is back around $2,660. Here are the levels I'm watching: 🔴 Resistance $2,780–$2,800 → first major hurdle9.24 Thursday $XAU
Not trading today
1
Not sure if oil will keep rising or fall. Recently, interactions between Iran and Trump have been frequent. I'm confident that my long position yesterday was correct, but it was dragged down by oil. Because I trusted myself, I didn't exit after more than ten points and got stopped out. It's a pity. Iran keeps denying Trump; it's like two families drawing K-lines against each other. I can't trade in such a complicated market.
2
Recently, the technical side has been a bit difficult. It seems like the funds that should be trading based on technicals are taking a break. The previously effective stop losses now have very little strength; stop losses can be easily triggered, and after being triggered, the price rises again.
It's too casual, like the support levels and stop losses everyone used to guard together are now resting. Otherwise, it wouldn't be possible to trigger stops so casually.
I'll just observe for now
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ Sometimes you survive the bearish phase by constantly trying to catch reversals, only to watch the biggest opportunities arrive when the market finally turns bullish. Then another problem appears: you know the broader trend is up, but you keep opening shorts because you don't want to miss a move in either direction. Long → short → long → short. Eventually, instead of capturing the trend, you simply pay the market through fees, bad entries, and unnecessary losses. Right now, $BTC, $ETH and $ZEC a#BTC surges to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion #BTC/ETH consolidates at high levels, bullish foundation remains
The current market core is high-level oscillation digesting profit-taking.
$BTC is tugging between 85500–86300, $ETH fluctuates between 2720–2760. This week, the two major mainstream coins have gained over 10% cumulatively, currently in a consolidation phase after a rally. The market greed index is 71, overall in a relatively hot zone, but short-term bullish enthusiasm has declined compared to previous peaks.
The capital support logic remains intact; yesterday spot ETFs continued net inflows, BTC net inflow of $700 million, ETH about $160 million, institutional funds are still continuously absorbing. On-chain whales keep withdrawing coins from exchanges, the sentiment of spot accumulation continues.
Technical structure remains sound, BTC and ETH prices still hold key moving averages. However, RSI has entered a high zone; a direct short-term strong attack will accumulate significant pullback selling pressure, making a technical correction likely.
My positioning strategy is to wait for a pullback to buy the dip:
BTC falls to 84800–85200 range, light long position with stop loss at 84200;
ETH pulls back to 2680–2700 before going long, stop loss at 2640.
Do not short prematurely; wait for BTC to break below 84500 and ETH below 2650 before following the trend. Early shorting risks a short squeeze caused by a bear trap.
Additionally, note that current funding rates remain positive, longs continue paying holding costs, and market leverage congestion is rising. Opportunities remain, but it is absolutely unsuitable to use high leverage to gamble on short-term spikes.
The overall direction remains bullish, core idea: do not chase highs, wait for pullbacks.最脆弱的一环，从来不是价格，而是所有人都站在同一边。 你见过多空比离谱到像玩笑的盘面吗？ ZEC 现在的合约结构让我停下手里的事多看了两眼。多头持仓 4.85 亿 U，空头只有 4192 万 U，买卖比 1158%。这不是普通的看多，这是一艘船上挤满了人，而且大部分人已经坐在浮盈上。 我第一反应不是兴奋，是警觉。因为市场最怕的从来不是分歧，是共识太整齐。当盈利盘高度集中、方向高度一致，盘面就变成一块熟透的果子，谁都知道摘下来的成本有多低。 从趋势阶段看，这更像分歧前夜，而不是启动初期。启动阶段的多空比通常还带着犹豫，空头没被彻底清干净；而现在空头几乎被挤到角落，说明看涨预期已经被大量提前计价。换句话说，价格里装的不只是现货需求，还有一层很厚的杠杆情绪。 偏多的逻辑也不是没有：如果现货买盘真的接得住，空头回补会变成燃料，逼空可以走得很急，ZEC 作为隐私赛道的老面孔，叙事一旦被重新点燃，弹性和关注度都在。但这条路径有个前提，现货要持续流入，而不是只靠合约撑场面。 风险在于，一旦价格停滞或小幅回落，高杠杆多头会先自己慌。多头拥挤意味着止盈单密集、强平线接近，第一波下跌不需要多大的量就能触发Trying to predict Bitcoin’s next move from a single candle or headline can be misleading. A better way to frame the market is to track valuation, exchange behavior, and available stablecoin liquidity together. Here are 3 indicators worth watching right now: ① MVRV — VALUATION TEMPERATURE 🌡️ MVRV compares Bitcoin’s market value with its realized value. Glassnode’s latest data shows aggregate BTC MVRV around 1.50, meaning the market remains meaningfully above its realized-cost base but is not at Received eight margin call notifications in one day, with my position hanging just above the liquidation line. I made it through that night. Now this $ETH long position has yielded twenty times profit; the market has answered that old question with results: the logic hasn't changed, time is your ally.
Ethereum started amid controversy and survived through rounds of upgrades by developers. ETFs opened the floodgates for it, institutions built positions, and it followed the cycles up and down, being doubted countless times. Every deep drop saw declarations of the narrative's end; every bottom saw bulls return to pick up the chips. After several cycles, those who held on have been rewarded.
The difficulty in holding a position isn't about being right, but about enduring. Warning messages aren't urging you to cut losses; they're asking if you still believe. Believers focus on value, skeptics on candlesticks, and candlesticks do only one thing: transfer chips from the wavering to the resolute.
Of course, being bullish doesn't mean holding on blindly. Leave room in your position, keep leverage at a level where you won't be jolted awake by calls in the middle of the night, and first give yourself space to make mistakes before talking about results.
The opponent of $ETH bulls has never been the bears, but themselves who exit halfway. No matter how bumpy the road, if the direction is right, the destination remains unchanged.After leaving the top of the five-minute segment, a stronger downward movement on the five-minute chart appears. The five-minute downward movement is not yet complete. Currently, this downward movement has not broken the four-hour level pivot below; the structure of the five-minute downward movement has not yet formed and remains incomplete. At the top positions 1 and 2, 1 is higher than 2, and 2 does not make a new high, but it is higher than the five-minute pivot. Therefore, breaking down 2 as the endpoint of the previous five-minute upward movement more clearly reflects the actual changes in the trend. Thus, 2 is taken as the endpoint of the previous five-minute upward movement. I believe this decomposition better reflects the true state of the trend. Generally, most people consider 1 as the endpoint of the previous five-minute segment, and 2, without making a new high, as the end, which usually makes it difficult to catch the high point and exit.$AAOI $AAOI /USDT Around this position 100.76, the order book cancels orders very quickly, and the K-line's upper and lower shadows are pulled like a manipulator shaking out the market, with a strong feeling of pure capital mutual cutting. My own view is bearish, selling part first, not chasing highs, and not stubbornly going full position. Why this view: volatility has obviously increased, short-term capital is highly divided, making it easy to have sudden crashes or false breakouts. Also stating the risk clearly: this kind of wild market rebound is fierce, stop loss must be set, don't hold the position stubbornly. Will you short here, or wait for the rebound to act?
👇👇👇From the 15-minute chart perspective, after a sharp drop hitting the low of 83500.2, Bitcoin has entered a phase of low-level oscillation and recovery, with the current price around 84298. Short-term moving averages are intertwined, indicating a temporary stalemate between bulls and bears. The 24-hour high is 87283, and the rebound after the drop is relatively weak.
News of large-scale chip sell-offs continues to disturb market sentiment, and the resistance above remains heavy. After a sharp decline, the market no longer continues to fall, but the slight rebound lacks sufficient volume support, representing a brief consolidation after the drop.
Many people mistake oscillation and stop of decline as a reversal signal and rush to bottom-fish, which can easily lead to being shaken out by back-and-forth fluctuations. Sideways movement during a downtrend is not necessarily a bottom formation; it could also be a continuation of the downtrend.
At present, do not rush to act; patiently observe whether there is an effective breakthrough of the resistance above. The biggest taboo in trading is impatience. Hold your position, control risk well, and wait for the market to give a clear directional signal before making plans. $ETH behaving abnormally means something strange is going on. Shorting ETH in a bull market is risky—not because of the wrong direction, but because the market is so abnormal that funding rates remain positive, and shorts keep getting squeezed.
At this point, either you see a monster that others haven't noticed, or you are the meat the monster wants to eat.
But before the monster reveals itself, first make sure you are still in the battlefield.The Nasdaq is pushing upward despite the rate hike, while BTC is still waiting downstairs for the elevator.
After waiting for two days with no elevator, the price actually went down first.
The Federal Reserve just raised rates by 25 basis points, the first hike in three years. Originally, everyone worried that high interest rates would suppress tech stocks, but the Nasdaq hit new highs for two consecutive days, closing at 27,244 points on September 22. AMD's market cap surpassed $1 trillion, and AI and chip stocks like Nvidia and Micron continue to rise.
Honestly, this trend looks strong, but money isn't flowing everywhere.
Funds are very selective now, only chasing companies that can clearly explain where their profits come from. AI investments are still increasing, and chip demand is visible, so no matter how high interest rates go, the market is willing to give them a bit more patience.
BTC is in a very awkward position right now. When the Nasdaq rises, BTC should have followed, but it’s hovering around $85,000. When the Nasdaq just pulled back from its high, BTC dropped first back to around $84,000. It hasn’t benefited much from the US stock rally, but the pressure from rate hikes and rising US Treasury yields hasn’t eased at all.
I won’t assume the crypto market will catch up just because the Nasdaq hit a new high. The two markets are trading fundamentally different things right now. US stocks are buying AI performance, while BTC is still waiting for new capital to come in.
Next, keep an eye on $85,000.
If it can quickly reclaim that level, the previous drop can still be seen as a pullback. If it can’t hold it, then it’s not just slow capital rotation; the buying demand is genuinely insufficient at the moment. An OTC whale/institution that just added 15,000 ETH yesterday took profits and reduced most of its ETH holdings after the dip early this morning: 7 hours ago, it transferred 42,000 ETH ($112 million) to Galaxy Digital, realizing a profit of $21.12 million. This address accumulated 52,000 ETH at an average price of $2,161 over the past two months; early this morning, it reduced 42,000 ETH at a price of $2,664. #NewbiesMustSee: Everything you need is here #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $ETH Notes as my own warning book📖,
1. No trading after 9 PM, try not to hold overnight positions.
I always think I can see my account grow when I wake up, but this has seriously affected my sleep, and trading at night is no longer a rational choice. It's like my subconscious gives me the idea: buy before sleep and see profits when waking up, which seriously impacts my judgment and mindset the next day.
2. No trading immediately after making or losing money, stop placing orders right away.
In recent days, after gaining profits, I become blindly confident; after losing money, my mindset worsens and I get impatient. Yesterday, after noticing a 40% loss in my account, I thought about quickly recovering the loss by using 20x leverage, which completely distorted my operations. One hour later, I was liquidated. After placing orders, the trading conditions were no longer what I wanted.
3. Only trade the trend! Only trade the trend! Don’t trade unless you see the K-line you want! I beg myself.
I hope everyone can comment more to remind me to check my posts more often. Thank you🙏 Today all my positions are in the red, but I'm optimistic and think this is a pullback, not a decline:
1. In my positions, mainstream coins like BTC have pulled back 3%, and $UNI, PUMP, ARB, which have been signaling risk for the past few days, have pulled back 10%.
This is normal; profits and losses share the same source, the strongest earlier are the worst last night.
2. The market pullback is due to multiple negative factors combined: interest rate hike expectations, renewed US-Iran conflict causing oil prices to rise, US Treasury yields hitting a 20-year high...
But I'm confident because despite so many negatives, the bears all pushed hard last night, yet $BTC only fell 3%, indicating the buying support is holding.
3. Instead, $ZEC deserves special mention: privacy tightening takes effect at midnight tonight, and on-chain data shows smart money is exiting early. This is not just a pullback following the market but also its own ecosystem negative.
A pullback is like reversing to pick up people; for those who missed out, let's encourage each other with the words in the attached image! $1.283 billion short positions "hovering at the top," yet ETH falls first as a sign of respect—whales precisely exit at the peak, while retail investors are still holding positions.
As of the morning of September 24, ETH is priced at about $2,676, down 2.64% in 24 hours. In the past 24 hours, the total network leverage liquidations reached $440 million, with ETH liquidations at $119 million, 80% of which were long positions—leveraged longs were almost completely wiped out.
Whales exited precisely at the peak. An OTC whale transferred 42,000 ETH (about $112 million) to Galaxy Digital for profit-taking and sale when ETH dropped to $2,664 in the early morning. They had accumulated at an average price of $2,161 two months ago, netting a profit of $21.12 million upon exit.
Key liquidation price points are worth monitoring. According to Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $2,536, long position liquidation intensity will reach $469 million; conversely, if it breaks above $2,794, short position liquidation intensity will reach $1.283 billion—a short squeeze trigger has already been set.
Longs are not without backup. BlackRock’s two ETH ETFs have collectively bought $1.01 billion worth of Ethereum over nearly 20 trading days, with ETHB seeing net inflows on 13 of the past 14 days, indicating institutional bottom-fishing continues unabated.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 This window at the White House is being written into a new narrative: reports say the Trump administration is considering promoting the use of dollar-denominated stablecoins overseas, aiming to consolidate the dollar's status as a global reserve asset and thereby increase demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. In the same narrative, insiders also mention the possibility of forming joint ventures with private companies, with institutions like the Treasury, State Department, and even development finance companies participating in supporting stablecoin projects. Some interpret it as spillover promotion after the stablecoin regulatory framework is implemented; Others remind that this is still an option under consideration, with no country list or confirmed joint venture partners, and the buzz will first hype up the term "overseas dollar stablecoins." The headline leans toward policy imagination and is not a path to close deals. It may just be a probing point during the policy window, and it's still uncertain whether it will become an enforceable document. First, note that "overseas advancement, public-private partnerships are still under consideration." If the next window has an official document or a named institution to express their position, it will be more reassuring to compare it with this window.$STRK Last night I was still calculating if this month's instant noodle money would be enough, and this morning I was already thinking about whether to add sausage. Thanks to the market for the meal with this short position.
When the market was just smashed in the early session, STRK rebounded near 0.04700, but the volume didn't keep up, and the resistance above was obvious, with a strong bull trap vibe. I judged it was just a breather, not a reversal, and at that time I advised to short in batches.
Then it continued downward, the price hit 0.03823, the short position yield was +931.91%, the wait was worth it. When the rhythm is right, profits speak for themselves. It was really dragging before, but the outcome is really sweet.
Take profit on 80% of the main position first, move the protection to the cost price for the remaining 20%, let the profits run if it continues to drop, and don't give back gains on the rebound.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
Have a strategy before the market, discipline during the market, and reflection after the market.
For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing shorts easily gets caught by rebounds. Wait for the next signal before moving, I will notify immediately.
$XRP $SOL Good Thursday morning!
BTC has been pushed down twice after attempting to break through $87,300. This is no longer just an ordinary resistance level; it has become a real battleground for short-term bulls and bears.
The most interesting thing now is: the bulls haven't weakened yet, but $87.3K still can't be broken.
My thinking is simple:
If $87.3K breaks out with volume and holds → target $88,000, then $90,000;
If $85K holds → continue to consolidate and digest, waiting for the next breakout;
If $85K fails → target $83,500-$84,000;
If $83,000 breaks down again, this rebound structure needs to be reassessed.
So the biggest taboo now is chasing the rally or panic selling. Chasing after breaking $87.3K is logical as it confirms the trend; defending after breaking below $85K is logical as support fails.
Will BTC attempt a third attack on $87.3K, or will it first retest $85K? I am more focused on this key next move.
$BTC Strong PMI reignites rate hike trades: 10-year US Treasury yield breaks 5.00%, with 5-year and 30-year yields reaching peaks not seen since 2007 and 2004 respectively; interest rate swaps have priced in three rate hikes over the next year, with some betting on a fourth. The Nasdaq ended its four-day winning streak, BTC briefly dipped below 84,000, currently at 84417.10. ArkStream's August report states that “Fed turning hawkish + US-Iran supply-driven inflation + AI siphoning liquidity” remains the main theme, while Hayes' prediction that “BTC is unlikely to return to 100,000 this year” is becoming more realistic. Sector gaps are more critical: amid broad declines, Securitize bucked the trend, rising 10.46% due to SEC stock token exemption; MSTR, BMNR, and BNC fell 3.07%, 4.52%, and 3.63% respectively. Funds may not be fully exiting crypto; tokenized stocks/RWA backed by regulatory exemptions are becoming safe havens; if a fourth rate hike becomes consensus, the valuation gap between treasury leverage and compliant tokenization will widen #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC $BTC has been rising for almost four weeks straight, and everyone's sharing their gains in their social circles.
From a liquidity perspective, it's indeed a bit crazy. The Fear and Greed Index hit 78 a few days ago, indicating "Extreme Greed," the highest in nearly a year. Honestly, the bulls are really overcrowded; although the funding rate on perpetual contracts hasn't reached overheated bubble levels yet, leverage is slowly rebuilding. What does the market hate the most? It hates when everyone thinks "this time is different."
Market situation: A 13% rise over four days, a pullback is a normal breath
$BTC surged 13% over four days, reaching around 87,300, then pulled back to about 85,500. Such a move in any asset is called a "dizzying rise," and a pullback is perfectly normal.
The RSI shot above 85, clearly showing technical overbought conditions. The 84,000 level is critical—it was the previous breakout point and now serves as the dividing line between bulls and bears. As long as it holds, the short-term bullish structure remains intact.
News perspective: Negative factors digested faster than expected
Last week actually had two big shocks: the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, and the "Clear Act" failed to get enough votes in the Senate. Half a year ago, this combo would have crashed BTC by at least 10%. What happened? The bill's failure only upset the market for one trading day; the SEC and CFTC came out the next day saying they would continue to improve regulatory rules within their existing authority. ETF funds were more direct: 746 million outflow in the first two days, then 433 million inflow on the third day, leaving a net outflow of only 6 million over five days.
Honestly, this kind of "bad news can't push it down" movement is more convincing than a one-sided rally.
Back to sentiment: Greed is the biggest enemy
What worries me now? The market is too comfortable. The Fear and Greed Index dropped from 78 to 71, from "Extreme Greed" to "Greed," indicating some people are starting to calm down. But it's not enough yet.
Let's review this cycle's script: It surged to 126,000 last October, then tariff shocks triggered 19 billion in liquidations within 24 hours, and in February this year, it was cut in half to around 60,000. The post-halving bull market has never been a straight line up; the mid-cycle shakeouts are meant to throw off the uncommitted.
The long-term logic hasn't changed, but entry points require patience
The main uptrend after halving lasts 12 to 18 months, and this rule hasn't been broken yet. The 50-week moving average has been reclaimed for the first time since November 2025, and the June low is likely confirmed.
So what should you really do? Not chase longs at 87,300, nor panic at 85,500. Wait.
Wait for a decent pullback, wait for the RSI to drop from the overbought zone, wait for sentiment to return from "Greed" to "Neutral." That will be the window to add positions, not now.
Holding above 85,000 does open the upside. 90,000, 100,000, even previous highs are not dreams in the medium term. But the road there will definitely be bumpy. Only those holding spot and sleeping well at night will be qualified to see that day.
The above is personal market commentary and does not constitute investment advice.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布