Orbit Post Sitemap
BTC ripped to $87K, then slammed back toward $83K. That’s not a clean trend — that’s volatility hunting leverage. Late longs got trapped, and the market may need more back-and-forth before choosing its next direction. $SOL also dropped to ~$113. Another $3 lower is nothing in this environment. ⚠️ When the structure is unclear, forcing a long is gambling. My move: stay liquid, let the volatility settle, then strike. #BTC冲高$87000 #CryptoBTC just surged past 87K and then plunged, now it's pretending nothing happened.
Yesterday it peaked at $87,283, then dropped all the way down to $83,546, nearly a $4,000 swing in one day. Today it's hovering around 84K again.
This situation is a bit like:
The boss just said, "Bonuses will double this year,"
The next day HR knocks on your door:
"Come to the office."
😂
But this drop can't be judged by candlesticks alone.
Yesterday, US economic data was clearly strong, causing the market to worry again about inflation and interest rate pressures. US Treasury yields rose, and BTC quickly fell back from above 87K.
Plus, there's a large BTC options expiry on Friday, about $14 billion in size, so short-term volatility might not be over yet.
So now I'm only watching:
84K: Can it hold?
87K: Can it be reclaimed?
83K: If it breaks, we need to reassess the pullback.
The funniest part is:
At 87K yesterday, the comment section was already planning to "renovate a 100K house."
At 84K today, the renovation crew has already run away.
😂
But the market doesn't need to follow emotions.
What BTC really needs to prove now is whether there is buying support after the drop.
If it stabilizes around 84K and then recovers back above 86K, the meaning of yesterday's plunge will be completely different.
Don't rush to write BTC's ending yet.
This drama isn't over.$BTC short-term holders realized profit is now at its highest level since the October 2025 top.
Not calling for a 50% crash, but there's a decent chance of correction in the coming weeks.Let me teach you how to read down from an inconspicuous piece of news. TSMC is about to raise its wafer foundry prices again, by about 3% to 6%—sounds like a semiconductor industry issue, right? But looking deeper: almost all AI chips worldwide come from them. When they raise prices, Nvidia's prices go up, server costs go up, and ultimately every AI bill bears the burden.
These days, the crypto world has been riding the AI tailwind upwards, but now this AI machine itself is becoming a new source of inflation. Chip prices rising, top-tier companies issuing bonds with interest rates nearing 10%, oil prices back to 90—the inflation problem is far from contained.
For those shorting, this isn't bad news. The stronger the logic of high interest rates, the more solid the ceiling over $BTC. To break through further, inflation must be overcome first. Do you believe AI is a perpetual motion machine, or that this bill will have to be paid sooner or later? Yesterday people were still shouting 90K, today even 85K is starting to feel difficult.
BTC yesterday peaked at $87,283, finally closing near 84K; today it dipped to 83.5K during the session, now continuing to fluctuate around 84K.
What’s really interesting about this wave isn’t how much it fell.
But rather:
After the surge, has the buying returned?
From the market view, BTC is clearly not as strong as yesterday.
So next I will watch two moves:
First, watch 85K.
If it can reclaim and sustain above this, it means the low-level support is still there.
Then watch 86K–87K.
Only if this range is reclaimed can yesterday’s surge and pullback be truly considered repaired.
Conversely, if 84K repeatedly fails to hold and 83.5K is broken again, the short term will need to look for new support.
The funniest thing now is market sentiment:
Yesterday:
“Is BTC about to take off?”
Today:
“Is BTC about to crash?”
😂
Actually, the price just went back from 87K to 84K.
What really changed the most,
is not BTC, but everyone’s sentiment.
So today I’m not guessing tops or bottoms.
Just watching if the market gives signals.
If 85K is reclaimed, watch for repair; if 86K breaks through, watch strength or weakness; if 83.5K fails, watch for lower support.
Before the market moves out, all scenarios are just drafts.If Costco's earnings report exceeds expectations, the risk appetite recovery may drive a correlated rebound in CL, but the current technical outlook remains bearish, and I tend to be cautiously bearish. The 24h volatility exceeds 4%, with the price surging to 92.99 before falling back. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are trending downward, and the price has retraced 9.42% from the 4-hour high, indicating that short-term downward momentum has not yet exhausted. The funding rate returning to zero indicates that bulls are no longer paying fees, and the open interest of 429,000 contracts has not shown a significant reduction. Combined with the order book's top 10 bid-ask ratio of 0.90, sellers have 54,000 orders suppressing buyers' 48,000, making the rebound more likely a bull trap. The trading volume of 11.922 million shows liquidity is decent, but the volume-price combination is bearish. Strategically, lightly short near 92.35 on a rebound, with a stop loss at 93.15 and a target of 89.05; if volume increases and price stabilizes above 93.45, switch to a short-term long with a target of 95.85. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total capital, and exit immediately if it falls below 88.75.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$CL#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#OKX预言家：好市多季度财报会超预期吗？ $CL The US Bitcoin ETF has once again pushed back the word "wait and see."
The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $999 million on Monday, marking the largest single-day capital inflow since October 2025; BlackRock IBIT, Ark 21Shares ARKB, and Fidelity FBTC were the main recipients. BTC also rose above the ETF average cost line of approximately $81,722, meaning the average ETF holder is in profit again for the first time since January this year.
This usually leads to two observations: first, if institutional buying through this channel continues, the trend feedback after the spot breakout will be smoother; second, if the funds are just a one-day pulse, the selling pressure after the previous trapped positions are released could make the pullback more severe.
Which side are you more focused on: maintaining stability above $82,000, or first seeing a round of pullback for digestion? 🎯 I don't need to sell at the peak; I just want to increase the amount of BTC I hold.
The most common mistake when trading Altcoins is always thinking:
"I'll sell after it rises a bit more."
"There should be one last wave."
"Is it too early to sell now?"
The result is often bigger profits → stronger greed → and eventually giving all the profits back.
My goal is actually very simple:
💰 Not to perfectly time the highest point of Altcoins
₿ But to have more BTC after exiting than at the start.
The market is still in a high volatility phase. BTC previously broke above $87K, then fell back to around $84K; meanwhile, the US stock spot BTC ETF recorded about $999M net inflow on September 21, showing that capital demand remains noteworthy.
So going forward, I focus more on:
BTC strength → Altcoin rotation → capital flow → trading volume
Rather than fantasizing about perfectly selling at the highest price.
I'd rather:
"Sell a bit early, but have more BTC."
Than:
"Hold out for the top, only to end with zero profit."
🔥 Selling early is not failure.
What really matters is: after this cycle ends, you have more BTC than when you started.
#Bitcoin #BTC #Altcoins #Crypto #CryptoMarket #BTCAccumulation #Altseason If you play cards long enough, you'll understand a principle: when your opponent suddenly makes a move after losing several rounds in a row, that's precisely the time for you to raise, not to panic and leave the table.
$BTC was hammered down from 86,000 today, with the RSI on the 1-hour and 15-minute charts hitting extreme oversold levels, then bouncing back above 84,000. The comment section immediately split into two camps: one shouting "buy the dip on oversold," the other shouting "short on the breakdown." I don't side with either.
Chasing shorts naked in oversold conditions is like voluntarily putting your face out for the big players to jab needles into; what really comforts the bears is the first wave of rebound after a sharp drop that fails to hold and shows waning momentum. So I'd rather wait for the rebound, wait for it to show weakness before considering action, and never short $BTC naked when the RSI is flat on the floor.
The core of low-frequency, large bets is never speed, but patiently waiting for that one card. Are you hot-tempered, or can you sit tight? The big options test on Friday is approaching, and my ETH short position is hanging by a thread
This Friday, $18.1 billion worth of BTC and ETH options will expire, and the timing is really nerve-wracking. My ETH short is still down over 130%. I was hoping for a drop before the weekend, but BTC is stuck around 86000, and ETH is sluggish near 2760. The market seems to be deliberately working against me.
What’s more frustrating is that CME just announced BCH and UNI futures launching in October, clearly accelerating institutional adoption. That’s bullish in the long term, but for me shorting, the deeper institutions get involved, the harder it is for the market to drop sharply—they’re long-term holders, not short-term dumpers.
Now the whole market is watching Friday’s options expiration. Historical experience shows there’s usually volatility around big expirations—either a pump or a dump. The current put/call ratio is 0.61, indicating bullish sentiment is dominant. By this logic, there’s a high chance of a rally? That makes my short position even more dangerous.
With 100x leverage, even a small rise could liquidate me; a drop is the only way to catch a breather. Counting down the days every day, I don’t know if I’ll survive until options expiration or if the options will take me out first. Friday, please come quickly.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ In the autumn night of New York, the wind finally carried a hint of severity. Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi closed the door and talked for three hours. Trump casually called it "productive" on social media, and the crude oil market immediately plummeted like a deflated ball. Having traveled far and wide over the years, I've seen too many of these so-called "diplomatic breakthroughs"—politicians shaking hands over coffee while the table is full of glaring chips underneath. Lifting the maritime blockade, unfreezing restricted assets, the navigation rights of the Strait of Hormuz—none of these are bloodless bones. There isn't even a shadow of a ceasefire agreement, the Damocles sword of military action still hangs high, but in the eyes of the financial market, as long as there is a glimmer of breathing room, risk-averse funds will retreat like a tide. Watching crude oil decline, I can't help but think of the subtle split between traditional risk assets and new types of hedging targets. Once the flames in the Middle East are suppressed, the inflation expectation alarm is temporarily lifted, which seems like a tonic for U.S. tech stocks. Look at the unusual movement of the neighboring U.S. stock tokenized asset $xDELL, which, as the core hardware asset supporting enterprise-level AI server infrastructure, is seeking certainty in growth amid the cooling of geopolitical tensions. Unlike Nvidia's wild surge, Dell represents a more steady industrial implementation logic. But don't forget, when falling oil prices drive a market rebound, liquidity in the crypto market is being diverted. The current macro chessboard is too complex. Gold consolidates at a high level, and the linkage between BTC and Nasdaq is intermittentLet's talk about an account outside the crypto circle that directly determines the price ceiling of cryptocurrencies. SoftBank is issuing $10 billion in bonds tonight, with a 9.25% coupon rate maturing in 2032 and a 9.75% coupon rate maturing in 2034. What kind of company is SoftBank? Even it has to pay over 9% to borrow money, which reflects the real cost of "money" right now.
Many people watch $BTC's candlestick charts every day but forget the invisible hand behind it—the interest rate. When risk-free returns are approaching 5% and high-quality companies are issuing bonds with rates near 10%, why would anyone expect people to put money into non-yielding risky assets? This isn't bearish sentiment toward anyone; it's the clear cost of capital staring us in the face.
I've always said that shorting $BTC requires macro conditions to hand you the bullets, and tonight that box of bullets is called "money is expensive." Do you think this round of interest rates is about to peak, or is it just starting to bite?BTC dropped from 87000 to 83450 last night. Can we bottom-fish now?
Yesterday, it was said that chasing near 86000 wasn’t suitable; for a steady swing trade, it’s best to wait for a pullback.
But last night it really dropped, from above 87000 all the way down to 83450, then rebounded back to around 84500 this morning.
I guess many friends are now hesitating: didn’t chase yesterday, now it’s dropped, can we catch it?
My view is: we can observe the rebound here, but it’s too early to confirm the bottom.
Today, I’m focusing on three key levels.
First, 84000–84500.
This is the first observation zone currently. If the price can hold here and then climb back above 85000, I would consider testing the rebound with a small position, rather than going all in to bottom-fish now.
Second, 85000–85500.
This is the resistance the rebound must face today. If it can’t break through here soon, the current rise might just be a retracement after the drop, and we shouldn’t rush to conclude the correction is over.
Third, 83000–83500.
If it pulls back again today, I will closely watch if a second bottom can form here.
If 83450 is effectively broken down and the rebound fails to recover, don’t rush to catch it; instead, pay attention to around 82000 below.
$BTC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #AMD market cap surpasses $1 trillion, chip stocks rally collectively, risk appetite recovery drives high-beta stocks like SLX to strengthen in the short term, but I judge this more as an emotion-driven rebound, caution advised when chasing highs. From the capital perspective, the fee rate is only 0.0050%, bulls are not overheated, positions at 30,888,000 coin-based, shorts still competing. After a 24h rise of 5.5%, current price is 0.07265, down 3.13% from the 1h high, but up 15.32% from the low, short-term upward structure intact; 4h still in a descending channel, 3.20% below the high. The top 10 buy-sell ratio is 2.10, with 7,369 buy orders versus 3,508 sell orders, buyers clearly dominant, turnover of 17,323,000 indicates incremental funds entering. Light long positions can be taken on a pullback to 0.07085, stop loss at 0.06835, target 0.07795; if it rallies to around 0.07815 and stalls, reduce positions, keep holdings under 20%.
——This is only a personal opinion, not investment advice, wishing smooth trading.——
$SLX#BTC rallies to $87,000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion
#AMD market cap surpasses $1 trillion, chip stocks rally collectively $SLX Costco's earnings report is out tonight, Micron's is the finale at the end of the month, this week's earnings season looks promising 💪
First, Costco $COST will release its Q4 earnings after the US market closes tonight, with a conference call at 5 PM.
The expected EPS is between $6.55 and $6.66. But the focus isn't on that; it's on the sales data already announced on September 2: Q4 net sales rose 11.3% to $93.9 billion. This growth rate is quite strong in retail.
Also, the effect of the membership fee increase is still unfolding, and the number of members is key. UBS still has a buy rating with a target price of $1275. For a stock like Costco, the market never focuses on single-quarter numbers but on membership renewal rates and same-store sales growth.
Next, Micron $MU, the semiconductor heavyweight, reports after the market closes on September 30.
The market expects Q4 revenue of $51.1 billion and EPS of $31.47. Last quarter (Q3) was already a record, with revenue of $41.46 billion, a gross margin of 84.9%, and HBM4 shipments exceeding $1 billion.
This time, there are two key things to watch:
First, the ramp-up of HBM4 production capacity. Micron plans to increase monthly HBM capacity by 60,000 units by year-end, reaching about 100,000 units. But Samsung and SK Hynix each have 150,000 to 200,000 units. The gap remains, and whether it can be narrowed is critical.
Second, whether memory prices can hold. Currently, the entire industry has DRAM inventory below target levels, NAND is continuously declining, and prices have been rising. But Nvidia's Rubin generation is already reducing HBM usage, indicating prices are too high and downstream demand is starting to falter.
So, Micron's earnings will likely look good, but what really determines the stock price is management's guidance for 2027—how long the price increase cycle can continue.
Costco reflects consumer resilience, Micron reflects AI computing demand—two directions. If you hold these two stocks, think carefully about what you're betting on before earnings.
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Another big player has fallen, with Ethereum liquidations reaching $10 million
Just checked the latest data, in the past 24 hours, the entire network saw $545 million liquidated, with 126,870 people liquidated.
Long position liquidations: $444 million
Short position liquidations: $101 million
Longs are 4.4 times the shorts; last night’s rapid drop cleared high-leverage positions in the market. The largest single Ethereum $ETH liquidation was $10 million.
The main reason for last night’s drop, according to news, is the uncertainty in the Persian Gulf and the resurgence of rate hike expectations.
Another important observation: when social media is flooded with various profit-taking posts, danger may already be here. That was the case yesterday, and I already felt the short-term risk.
But seeing how far we are from the goal, the gap is as high as Mount Everest; next time remember to trust yourself and retreat immediately if something feels off.
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
On September 23, representatives from the US and Iran held about a 3-hour meeting at the United Nations headquarters in New York. Trump subsequently said the talks were "very good" and "very productive," and indicated that talks would continue soon. After the news broke, Brent crude briefly fell below $100/barrel, with the market clearly starting to trade on expectations of easing geopolitical risks.
But I think this cannot yet be directly taken as a "peace landing."
Because although Iran confirmed this contact, it also emphasized that its negotiation conditions have not disappeared, including ending the war, lifting the blockade, and releasing related assets. In other words, they are willing to sit down and talk, but it is still early to reach a real agreement.
For the market, the transmission logic is actually very clear:
US-Iran easing → geopolitical risk premium declines → oil prices fall → inflation pressure expectations ease → risk asset pressure lessens.
So this in itself is a relatively positive signal for risk assets like Bitcoin and the Nasdaq.
But in trading, I am more focused on one detail:
If the good news is out, oil prices have fallen, but Bitcoin still can't break through, then it indicates the real problem in the market might not be the news, but selling pressure.
So I will watch this meeting, but won't blindly chase it.
News is responsible for ignition, price is responsible for verification.
In the end, it still depends on whether Bitcoin can firmly reclaim key levels.BTC fell 2.59% in 24 hours, DOGE dropped over 8%, ETH declined about 3%. U.S. Treasury yields broke 5.1%, oil prices rose above $100, and rate hike expectations intensified, with over $440 million liquidated in 24 hours, 75% of which were long positions. Most long holders today couldn't hold on, and you are no exception.
It's not your "hard" fault with DOGE; the leverage was just too fragile: after surging to 0.1059, the longs were trampled, falling even harder than BTC. ETH isn't any better than BTC; don't expect it to perform well in the short term.
Now, don't look for the next coin; stop first: turn off the candlestick charts, reduce your position to a level you can sleep with, and treat "not holding on" as a discipline issue, not a character flaw.
This wave for BTC is a shakeout.
$BTC
$ETH
$ZEC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $AIXBT This AIXBT order book is a bit strange, fluctuating around 0.0217 with heavy selling pressure. The volume feels off, like pure capital is arm-wrestling, with a strong vibe of a manipulative whale shaking out weak hands. I choose to sell first and not fight it head-on. Such unusual moves either shake people off or are real dumps. If it breaks below 0.021, I'll pull out; don't hold heavy positions. What do you think—is this a shakeout or a real dump? Anyone on the same page?
👇👇👇🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H Capital Rotation Observation
The market is testing a key question: Can BTC's strength spread to ETH and high Beta assets?
🟠 $BTC ≈ $84.5K
BTC remains the core of the structure, with short-term focus on the $83K–$86K range.
🔵 $ETH ≈ $2.67K
ETH needs to hold the $2.60K–$2.66K range to prove that capital breadth has not significantly cooled.
🟢 $ZEC ≈ $1.5K
ZEC continues to serve as a high Beta observation target; its strength or weakness can help judge whether market risk appetite is still expanding.
📊 The latest capital flow is also worth noting: The US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $714.8M on Tuesday, marking the 4th consecutive trading day of capital inflow, totaling about $2.3B; products like ETH, SOL, XRP, and ZEC also saw capital inflows.
So now I am more focused on this set of signals:
BTC stabilizes + ETH follows + ZEC volume expands → 🚀 Market breadth continues to expand
BTC rebounds but ETH/ZEC weaken → ⚠️ Possibly just a BTC single-line market
BTC breaks key support + OI continues to rise → 🔻 Leverage risk needs caution
BTC is responsible for setting direction, ETH verifies market breadth, ZEC observes risk appetite.
Don't chase candlesticks, first watch price +9.24｜Day 20 of the 220,000 challenge to 10 million
Terrible! The full position in DOGE today has 243,000 in funds, which is 23,000 more than the principal. Position remains unchanged. Yesterday's update still had me thinking about adding to the position. Seeing the big surge gave me the urge to add, but in just one day, DOGE's movement knocked that idea down. Just one day later, my position's profit dropped from 20% to 8%. You tell me, isn't the market ruthless? The logic of trend trading is that although it broke through the previous resistance level, it currently looks like a false breakout. I'll continue to hold and observe. No adding or reducing positions.
Three MEME cycles
$DOGE → Liquidity and brand recognition.
$WIF → Speed of retail capital flow.
$BONK → The power of the Solana community.
Meme coins don't need the same technology to create waves together.
The deciding factors are usually liquidity, attention, and the ability to maintain trading volume.
When retail returns, meme coins usually don't ask which project is better—they ask where the attention is.
Full real-time operation records, every mistake and pitfall fully exposed~ Growing together
All notes only record personal growth daily and do not constitute any advice!
(September 24, 2026, 7:51 AM, Changchun)
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ [BTC Intraday Analysis]
After surging to 87200 yesterday but failing to hold, the price subsequently dropped sharply below 85000, hitting a low of 83450. This is not a normal low-volume pullback but a concentrated stop-loss release by bulls at a high level; however, the open interest declined simultaneously and the funding rate returned to neutral, indicating that the main factor is leverage clearing, and a new sustained short-side accumulation has not yet formed.
Currently, there is support around 83450, allowing for a rebound that remains capped below 84600. The hourly timeframe has not yet reversed. Bajie mainly expects a recovery to 84800–85300 to digest selling pressure; if it fails to hold, it will retest around 83300. Today's high range is expected between 84900–85400, and the low range between 83000–83500. Only a four-hour volume close above 85700 will mark the end of this downward pressure; if the price falls back below 82300 in real terms, the previous daily breakout structure will be officially invalidated.Jiang Zhuoer has spoken again! Is he about to trigger a long squeeze this time?
This is not a bull-bear verdict, but a "liquidation risk map."
BTC surged quickly from 78,000 to 87,000, with short positions above thinning out, while long positions below are more crowded. According to Binance perpetual data: a $10,000 move up would liquidate about 440 million in short positions; a $10,000 move down would liquidate about 1.663 billion in long positions, nearly 4 times the difference.
My two scenarios:
Plan 1: Breakout with volume. Hold above 87,500 on the 4-hour chart, then try going long with 20%-30% of the position, targeting 89,000-90,000; if it breaks 90,000 with continued volume increase, add more. If it spikes to 87,500 but then falls back below 86,000, do not chase.
Plan 2: Rejection at highs. If 87,000-87,500 repeatedly fails with shrinking volume and increasing open interest, reduce longs first. If it breaks below 85,000, try shorting lightly aiming for 82,000; if 82,000 breaks with volume, prepare for a potential long liquidation cascade.
Key point: 82,000 is not a guaranteed target but a level to observe long sentiment. The short-term remains strong; shorts have just been swept out. It's equally dangerous to short heavily just because there are many long positions below.
Discipline: Bias long above 87,500; if 87,000 fails, do not chase; reduce longs if 85,000 breaks; defend against acceleration if 82,000 fails. Try lightly to test; add on breakout; retreat on breakdown.
This round may not be a slow decline but a sweep of shorts first, then a counterattack by longs. Don't guess the top; write your plan first; the market can be chaotic, but position sizing should follow the plan. The fundamental reason for contract liquidation lies in using money that doesn't belong to you, which means high leverage.
Suppose you have 1000u, but you use 100u with 100x leverage, that means the actual capital you are using is 10,000u, you borrowed 9000u. And this 9000u doesn't belong to you; if there's a 10% fluctuation, your principal of 1000u is gone.
As everyone knows, in this circle, a 10% fluctuation is like a breeze.
A contract is just a tool; after all, when you are bearish, you can only short by using contracts. Spot trading only allows buying. You've seen 10x, 20x, 100x longs, now let me show you a 1x.
But I've already closed 60% of this position; the other 40% has been set with breakeven stop loss.
The tool itself is not wrong; it depends on how you use it. A knife can be used to kill enemies, but it can also hurt yourself.
#Trader'sSelfCultivation#Good morning friends, the first thing after waking up is to open the exchange and take a quick look at Bitcoin.
$BTC is stuck around 84474, slightly up 0.56%, with a volume of 682 million, typical early session low volume stabilization. After breaking through the 86,000 level a couple of days ago, it has pulled back. Now bulls and bears are tugging near 84,000, with no obvious volume surge to dump or rush upward. For the short term, treat it as consolidation. The resistance above is still near yesterday's high, and support to watch below is the 84000 round number. $ETH is performing a bit cleaner than BTC, at 2682, up 0.98%, with a volume of 444 million. The upward momentum is decent, no dragging behind. ETH has been a bit more resilient than BTC these past two days. If BTC doesn't break down at this early session level, ETH will likely continue to track closely. Let's first see if it can test 2700.
$ZEC is the most eye-catching today, at 1493, down 3.84%, with a volume of only 87.57 million, showing a clear drop in volume. The privacy narrative plus the European ETP surge a few days ago pushed it too hard, reaching a high near 1680, with a lot of long leverage piled up. Last night to this morning saw a wave of long liquidations, and the price slid directly from the high. Such a pullback after a sharp rally is normal. Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term; first see if it can hold between 1480-1500. If it can't hold, it may test lower again.
Overall, BTC is sideways, ETH is following, and ZEC is pulling back. Don't chase the highs or sell the lows; wait for the European and American sessions to see the direction. Manage your position size well, avoid full leverage Last night BTC dropped from $87K down to around $84K. I think the key point is not that some "super negative" event suddenly appeared, but that three factors collided:
Rising US Treasury yields + insufficient spot support + overly crowded long leverage.
BTC tried twice to break through $87K but couldn't hold, then the macro market went Risk-off, and after the price broke below $85K–$84K, a large number of longs were liquidated, further amplifying the decline.
The most interesting thing about this round is:
ETF had capital inflows, yet BTC still fell.
This shows the market is not "nobody is buying," but that the selling pressure above temporarily outweighs the new demand.
So last night looked more like:
$87K breakout failure → spot selling pressure → break key support → long liquidation → accelerated sell-off.
What I’m more focused on next is not "why it fell last night," but:
After leverage is flushed out, can $84K be quickly reclaimed.
If it can’t be reclaimed, the market may continue to look for the next liquidity level;
If it is quickly reclaimed, then last night’s spike might just be a very standard Leverage Flush.$BTC stopped falling near 84,417.2, with 33 short liquidations and only 2 long liquidations in the past hour. This is a short squeeze rebound, not driven by new buying. More importantly, the position structure shows: the retail long-short ratio rose from 0.9037 to 1.1538, while the large trader position ratio dropped from 2.1040 to 1.9126. During the 1.94% price drop, retail traders were accumulating longs, while large traders were reducing longs. Macro events are piling up as directional catalysts, but the funding rate is only 0.0013%, DVOL is 36.2, and leverage and options have not priced in much premium for the events. If the data turns hawkish, volatility is likely to be amplified. My bias is bearish: after the data release, $BTC is more likely to retest the 83,450.1 level. Conditions for a bullish reversal: reclaim above 87,247.3, and the large trader position ratio returns above 2.1040, indicating large traders are adding longs again, invalidating the bearish bias. $ETH 🔥 ETH 2,685: Yesterday they were still shouting 3,000, today it was pushed back to 2,670 friction
On the morning of 9.24, ETH failed to hold above 2,800 and directly slid to 2,685.
This is not a crash, but a "normal pullback after a failed breakout":
2,775–2,825 = upper shadow zone on 9/23, tested but did not hold
2,670 = intraday critical point, only weak if 4H closes below
2,640 = golden pit for pullback, can still fight if it stabilizes
2,600 = strong bottom line, only talk about false breakout if broken
2,390 = bottom on 9/16, if daily close does not return, weekly line still strong rebound
There is divergence in capital flow:
9/22 ETF +162 million, 9/23 some sources +162 million, but another measure shows net outflow of 141 million in US Eastern time
Institutions are buying and selling, not unanimously bullish—so price dares to push up but not hold
Yesterday "deputy commander stole the spotlight", today "retreating to wipe sweat".
Do not chase 2,685, look for support at 2,640; only when it reclaims 2,780+ can we talk about 3,000 again.
(Not investment advice · For reference only!) $ETH #美伊谈了三小时，油市先押注通航？
On September 22, during a break at the UN General Assembly in New York, the US special envoy and the Iranian foreign minister held a closed-door meeting for about three hours. This was their first encounter since the ceasefire broke down in June. After the meeting, Trump said it was "very good" and hinted at possible further talks; Iran, however, made its conditions clear: lifting the maritime blockade, unfreezing assets, with normal navigation through the Strait of Hormuz as the core.
But Washington has not ruled out military options, and no new ceasefire agreement was signed. The market, however, first traded on the "resumption of navigation through the strait": WTI fell 4.51% in a single day, dropping below 95.78; Brent crude fell from 110 to 99. The volume of Brent put options surged to 764,000 contracts, setting a new record.
In my view, the resumption of contact just kicked the ball back. The diplomatic window opened, but conditions have not been settled. As long as there is no substantive arrangement on the blockade, assets, and navigation, this drop in oil prices could be reversed at any time. Contact is a signal, not an agreement; expectations run ahead, but reality may not follow.
$BTC $ETH $CL #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #中东能源风险推高油价 • US September composite PMI preliminary at 58.4, highest since July 2021 → US 10-year Treasury yield breaks 5%, highest since 2007; market raises October rate hike probability from about 55% to about 70%.
• US stocks Dow/Nasdaq both drop over 300 points, tech, chips, gold, and silver all fall; dollar index breaks 101, non-yielding assets collectively under pressure.
• Crypto follows the decline: BTC briefly breaks 85,000, lowest about 83,785, Tencent quotes about 84,273 (-2.23%); ETH/SOL about -3%, XRP about -5%; over 120,000 liquidations across the market the previous night, sentiment clearly turns cold when BTC breaks 85,000.
• Additional variable: oil prices rise (Brent about 97.5, WTI about 92), inflation and rate hike expectations reinforce each other, a double blow to risk assets.BTCUSDT
Current Quote: 84421.7
This rally is driven by macro expectations and capital inflows; its sustainability depends on whether incremental funds continue to enter. According to the cycle:
1. Short-term (1-5 trading days): Bulls dominate, but upward pressure gradually appears
Current price 84421.7, the first strong resistance above is at 85500-86200 (previous trapped positions + short-term concentrated shorts). As long as the 83000 support holds, BTC has a chance to challenge the 86200 level, with an extreme target of 87000. After continuous rallies, bullish momentum gradually depletes, and a 3%-5% pullback may occur at any time; chasing highs is not recommended.
2. Medium-term (2-4 weeks): Mainly high-level consolidation, direction awaits news release
The core catalysts for this rally (Trump policy expectations, ETF capital inflows) have been partially priced in. Historically, BTC's pulse rebound rallies tend to enter a consolidation phase to digest profits after 2-3 weeks. Once positive expectations cool down, a phased deep pullback may occur. The probability of a sustained unilateral surge decreases, and range-bound oscillation will become the main theme.
3. Long-term (3-6 months): Large-scale bullish logic remains unchanged but highly dependent on the macro environment
Institutional ETF continuous allocation and scarcity brought by the halving cycle support the long-term fundamental logic. The premise is that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy does not shift to aggressive rate hikes; if a rate hike cycle begins, BTC will enter a deep correction.
Operational reference (swing trading approach)
1. Holders should take profits in batches within the 85500-86200 range; avoid stubbornly chasing extreme highs;
2. On pullbacks to 83000-83500 support and stabilization, light long positions can be tried;
3. Avoid full or heavy long-term positions; this rally is expectation-driven, so manage position sizes carefully.
$BTC
#霍尔木兹风险升温，能源通胀受关注
ETHUSDT
Current Quote: 2681
The rise is driven by both the overall market and improved regulatory expectations, showing better elasticity than BTC. Market rhythm reference:
1. Short-term (1-5 trading days): Strength linked to the overall market, approaching resistance zone
Current price 2681, first resistance above at 2740-2780. As long as BTC holds steady, ETH is expected to test 2780; however, after continuous rebounds, selling pressure accumulates, and a 4% pullback may occur at any time. Avoid chasing highs.
2. Medium-term (2-4 weeks): High-level box consolidation, awaiting regulatory news catalyst
A large part of ETH's recent rise comes from expectations around the CLARITY Act, which has been partially priced in. When positive news is realized, it may turn from bullish to bearish, and the market will likely oscillate between 2600 and 2780 to digest profits.
3. Long-term (3-6 months): Rich narrative but heavily influenced by SEC regulatory outcomes
Ethereum ecosystem, staking narratives, and ETH ETF expectations support valuation long-term, but regulatory classification is the biggest uncertainty. Once negative regulatory news hits, ETH's correction will be much larger than BTC's.
Operational reference (swing trading approach)
1. Holders should take profits in batches within the 2740-2780 range;
2. On pullbacks to 2600-2630 and stabilization, light positions can be taken to speculate on rebounds;
3. Avoid heavy long-term holdings; regulatory news uncertainty is high.
$ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ ePBS reduces relay trust but does not eliminate block builders
In the current Ethereum block production, builders and validators often rely on off-protocol relays to transmit bids and blocks. The Glamsterdam plan introduces ePBS, embedding this division of labor into the protocol to reduce trust in third-party relays. Many mistakenly believe this upgrade will eliminate builders or the MEV market, but the actual change is more like formalizing the existing relationships into transparent, verifiable rules.
Builders will still compete on transaction ordering and block value, and validators will still choose attractive bids. The difference is that payments, commitments, and data delivery no longer fully depend on external coordinators. The single points of failure caused by relay outages, censorship, or opaque rules will decrease, but builder concentration, order flow advantages, and complex strategies still require ongoing observation.
For $ETH, protocolization does not instantly solve all problems but shifts risks from hard-to-audit intermediaries to more transparent consensus rules. This approach helps expand capacity and makes it easier for nodes to verify what happened. What is truly worth bullish attention is not slogans like “the middleman disappears,” but Ethereum’s willingness to acknowledge the real market structure and use the protocol to make key constraints public. Verifiable division of labor is more reliable than pretending there is no division of labor.$BTC broke through $82,400, and the bullish pattern is indeed reestablishing a bottom.
But be aware: if it really retraces to $68K–$70K, that means a drop of more than 15% from the current position.
Such a retracement is often accompanied by a shift to bearish sentiment, and not everyone can hold through it.
The path to $100K might not be a straight climb but could first cause some doubt.
Whether your position can withstand this retracement is the key.A Wall Street institution has shifted its focus to Japan and Europe.
Morgan Stanley's Managing Director Slimmon believes there are opportunities in the Japanese and European markets, with European defense being one of the directions he highlighted. He mentioned that these markets, often lagging behind the U.S. due to earnings frequently falling short of expectations, are beginning to change.
The key to this judgment lies in earnings. Capital has long given a premium to U.S. stocks based on the certainty of corporate earnings growth. If earnings realization in other markets begins to stabilize, valuation discounts will turn into arbitrage opportunities. He is talking about relative opportunities, not a directional bullish stance. Many people still think of RWA as simply "putting stocks on-chain and issuing a token."
Aave V4 takes a step further this time: it aims to do securities finance — from bonds to tokenized stocks, directly collateralizing, borrowing, and lending on-chain.
In other words, what’s on-chain is not just "asset certificates," but the entire infrastructure of the credit market.
When stocks and bonds can be used as collateral for lending on-chain, the traditional brokers’ spread and custody layers get reshaped.
For crypto, this means DeFi lending is officially moving from "native coin collateral" into TradFi’s deposit and loan market — Aave wants to be the new foundational layer for this.
The risks are obvious: regulation, counterparty risk, and off-chain asset verification remain unresolved.
But the direction is already set.2026年的买币唯一心法。 你的币有收入吗？30 天烧了多少？没有回购销毁的代币，你还拿着图什么？ 说过很多次了，一个应用代币如果没有回购销毁机制，说明两件事里至少占一件：要么项目没有真实收入，要么有收入但跟你没关系。不管哪种，你持币就是在给别人当退出通道。 有真实收入，而且持续拿收入回购销毁的代币，才是真正意义上的「资产」。你持币能吃到协议赚钱的红利，你是币东。 这道理不复杂，但市场花了好几年才开始当回事。EtherFi 的 CEO 年初说了一句话，收入和基本面会是 2026 年的主线叙事。现在看他说对了。 拉了张表，五个有回购机制的代币放一起比：$UNI、$HYPE、$SKY、 $PONS 、$CAKE 。（数据见图） 用 PE 来给 DeFi 代币估值，听着很 TradFi，但逻辑很通。能算 PE，前提是你有收入。有收入才有资格被当资产看，而不是被当 Meme 看。 几个聊聊： $HYPE，30 天回购了 6060 万美金，协议收入的 97% 直接拿去买烧，今年还上了美股 ETF（Bitwise、21Shares、Grayscale 三家同时发），机构都进场了。PE 给到 108The two Texas data centers of bankrupt mining company Poolin were included in the auction results: Hut 8 won Pyote and Tarbush for about $140 million, reportedly nearly three times the initial fake horse combined of about $52 million, but still await a final sale hearing in New Jersey bankruptcy court. In the same infrastructure narrative, some interpret this as a sample of mining sites transitioning to AI/managed capacity; others warn that winning the bid does not mean the deal is complete, and the approval pace and the unsecured debt structure for wallet users could both change the outcome. Buzz will first revolve around "triple premium, two data centers," but headlines are not the path to transactions. Price increases are common in bidding and may just be a single buyer positioning at specific nodes. It's still uncertain whether this will spur industry follow-up. First, record "Hut 8, 140 million, Pyote/Tarbush, pending court approval." If the document size changes in the next window, comparing with the numbers in this window will be more reliable.$XRP The most unusual detail today is not the drop, but the funding rate turning negative to -0.0046%, while the price only retraced 4.60%, clearly showing more resilience compared to the same sector. In contrast, $PEPE has -13.11% and RSI has dropped to 23.4; $XRP's RSI at 36.2 is weak but not oversold, and the current price of 1.498 still stands above the Bollinger lower band at 1.44595. MA5=1.49528 has basically flattened, indicating that selling pressure is waning, while shorts are still paying to hold positions.
Structurally, MA5<MA20 and the MACD histogram at -0.007246 still indicate a bearish setup, so this is not a time to chase longs but to wait for a pullback to buy. Reference range is 1.470–1.492, reason being support above the Bollinger lower band at 1.44595 and the short-term bull-bear dividing line near MA5 at 1.49528. Take profit 1 target is 1.550, which is the MA20 resistance; take profit 2 target is 1.610, near the mid-range of the Bollinger upper band at 1.65433. Stop loss is 1.438; breaking below the Bollinger lower band invalidates the structure. The Fear & Greed Index at 71 is in the greed zone; the combination of negative funding rate and resilience often corresponds to a short squeeze rebound, which is why it is more worth watching than others in the same sector. Also watch: $LSK with RSI at 72.7 showing strength, and $PEPE oversold and weak; relatively, $XRP is in the middle but slightly better on relative strength.Last night $BTC finally broke even, and as soon as I got back to breakeven, I quickly closed my position and exited.
If I had held on for a minute or a few minutes longer, I could have made some pocket money. It's so sad 😞
At that time, I was convinced a sharp drop was coming soon, so I cleared out all my spot holdings of $UNI, $HYPE, and $OKB. But when I woke up and checked the market, all those coins had surged again.
Looks like I'm really not cut out for swing trading.
I can't hold positions, always thinking about locking in profits; as soon as I sell, the market takes off, repeatedly missing out.
Now I'm calming down to reflect seriously; I must adjust my mindset. If I keep trading this frequently, I won't even wait for the bull market to end—my principal will just be slowly worn down by chasing highs and selling lows.
Frequent back-and-forth trading seems like seizing opportunities, but in reality, I'm just letting the market control my emotions. I panic at every fluctuation, want to run at the slightest profit, and cut losses completely when scared. Busy all over the place, but in the end, I miss out on every market move.
It's really frustrating.
The hardest part of trading isn't predicting the market correctly, but controlling your hands and holding onto your chips. From now on, I plan to reduce my trades, watch the market less, stabilize my mindset, and no longer be swayed by short-term ups and downs.
This bull market has completely changed my mindset on contracts; in the last bull market, I only sold after doubling my position.
Why do I keep trying to swing trade this round? I don't get it 😢
Are there any friends who feel the same, falling into deep self-doubt after selling too early?
⚠️ The above is just my personal market insight and does not constitute investment advice. Profit and loss are your own responsibility.
#新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 The wing pawn has already been sacrificed, while the other side of the board is still counting squares.
Nine hundred and fifty bitcoins, the first move after two weeks of silence. Strategy's total pieces pile up to 846,000 — this is not a buy-in, it's welding the entire rear wing pawn chain onto the board. Strive added 1,355 pieces, with a total holding of 26,355, quietly jumping to the e5 outpost like an underestimated knight. BitMine is even more ruthless, with 27,562 Ethereum credited, bringing the total pot close to 5,980,000 pieces, of which 5,070,000 have already been locked into staking contracts — equivalent to locking the rook on the baseline while still letting it capture pieces on the field.
Look closely: a single player's capturing move cannot change the course of the game; this is opening theory. But when three armies of different colors advance in the same direction in the same week, the question is not "who is buying," but "how many empty squares remain in the circulating supply."
ETF capital flows are the visible line; corporate reserves are the hidden line. The visible line gives you sentiment, the hidden line gives you structure. When the hidden line continuously withdraws tradable supply, the market's elasticity becomes like an endgame of a lone king versus a lone pawn — every step becomes heavier and irreversible. Continuing to buy during an uptrend is the real test. Anyone can accumulate at low prices; that is the cheap courage of pushing pawns to the eighth rank; adding positions at high prices is the dividing line between grandmasters and amateurs.
The $XAUT line is a pawn between gold and crypto. When the fiat system's credit loosens, this pawn can promote. Don't focus on its price today; focus on its correlation rhythm with Bitcoin — moving in the same direction means risk appetite resonance, divergence means safe-haven funds are repositioning.
I've seen too many people count themselves out in the midgame because they only look at the opponent's last move. True strategists have already rehearsed the pawn structure twenty moves ahead before the first piece is revealed.
The question now is: when prices rise, do these reserve holders continue to increase their positions, or start considering realizing profits? This move determines who holds the initiative in the midgame.
When the enemy is at the gates, the quietest side often holds the biggest killing move. #cryptotreasuriesbuyThe moment the rebar is pulled out, even the tallest tower is just a pile of concrete suspended in the air.
The load-bearing wall of gold is being simultaneously cut by three external shear forces: the continuous rise of the federal funds rate, the surge in real yields, and the rigid expansion of the US dollar index. This is a typical foundation failure scenario—gold itself is a "zero-coupon structure" without interest payments, and when the carrying capacity of risk-free assets is strong enough, capital naturally withdraws from it. Technically, the $4,339 closing price is a transitional platform after a historical high pullback; it is neither a load-bearing point nor a fracture point, just a construction joint for load redistribution.
But those who truly understand structures won't just look at surface stress. Digging deeper: gold ETF holdings hit a historical peak in August, and China's imports exceeded 1,000 tons in the first eight months. This is not speculative scaffolding; it is long-term holders pouring the basement—central banks and wealthy family offices' funds belong to the raft foundation, buried deep, slow, and not involved in intraday fluctuations. Bernstein's $5,700 target price essentially recalibrates the wind load limit for this tower; UBS views interest rates as a short-term headwind, acknowledging that the current oscillation is temporary support; Citibank mentions strengthening family office demand, indicating the owners are increasing their share of the main structure.
The real contradiction lies in who can support the next floor slab between structural buying and interest rate suppression. High real yields are a continuously applied vertical load, while central bank and ETF absorption act as pile foundation reaction forces resisting settlement. When these two forces contend, the price oscillates repeatedly on this floor slab until one side's stiffness is exhausted.
At times like this, focusing on tokenized stock targets is like watching construction progress beyond the blueprint—their linkage is not planar displacement but the stress transmission of the entire ecosystem. What truly determines whether this building can continue to be poured upward is never the price points in news headlines but whether someone is pouring concrete into the basement. #goldvshighrates$BTC In the last 12 hours, long positions on the entire BTC network liquidated $120 million, and short positions liquidated $9.981 million
Since BTC only dropped from 87000 yesterday, long orders were placed at 85000, unexpectedly it rebounded this much, today BTC's lowest point dipped to 83434.3
Current price is 84457.1, the most important thing now is to first hold above 84000, then consider other targetsThis cycle has attracted the most off-chain celebrities to the Chain, surprisingly to Robinhood Chain.
After checking, at least four or five big names outside the circle got involved.
Mark Zuckerberg followed the X account of Agrippa, a Meme coin on the RH Chain, and the coin price exploded that day.
Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale followed the Meme coin MONITOR in the PLTR liquidity pool on-chain, pushing its market cap to $13 million.
Hims CEO Andrew Dudum described the HOOD token as "Very cool," and HIMS remains one of the top stock tokens held on-chain.
AMC CEO Adam Aron publicly criticized the tokenized AMC as "despicable and unforgivable," but Robinhood CEO Vlad then followed AMC's paired $MEME; one acknowledged, the other confronted, and the coin price surged again.
Tokenized SpaceX, NVDA, and GME also brought Elon Musk and Jensen Huang's narratives into the spotlight. Although they didn't interact directly, the traffic effect was real.
The deepest involvement is still Robinhood's own CEO Vlad Tenev, who followed CASHCAT and $MEME, publicly stating this Chain "does RWA but is also suitable for Meme."
Other chains trying to leverage celebrities mostly rely on photoshopped images and imagination.The difference between trading and gambling is: gambling often involves irreversible moves, while trading is repeatedly tormented by the fluctuating candlesticks; gambling usually has expected returns, but the expected returns of trading exist only in your mind. Trading is like throwing money into the market, fighting against the tides of time grain by grain.On Wednesday, I reconciled the rebounds from the first two days of the week on the spot. The reconciliation wasn't earnings, but bonds. Dow 51512, down 352 points, down 0.7%. S&P 7706, down 59 points, down 0.8%. Nasdaq 26936, down 308 points, down 1.1%, giving up its recently hit closing high. Russell 2000 dropped 1.8%. So far this week, the Nasdaq is still up 1.6%, the S&P is up 0.7%, and the Dow has turned down. Year-to-date, the S&P is about +13%, and the Nasdaq is about +16%. The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped from 4.96% to 5.10%–5.11%, returning to around 2007 levels. This was the real pricing for the day. The preliminary PMI said September business activity hit the fastest in over five years, and corporate costs rose the sharpest in four years, mainly fuel. The economy was hot, oil prices stopped falling and rebounded, and the market immediately priced another rate hike in October more accurately. Treasury auctions were weak, adding fuel to the fire. The 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.12%, the highest in two years. The real estate chain didn't even have to wait for new home sales to soften first. Oil prices returned. Brent stopped its losing streak and climbed back above 100. Energy was one of the few sectors to close higher. Pezeshiziyan said at the UN that Iran would not surrender to US pressure, which clashed with Trump's harsh words the day before, stripping away a layer of the peace talks premium. Chips also retreated: Nvidia fell 1.5%, Philadelphia Semiconductor dropped about 1.2%. Alphabet fell nearly 4%, Amazon dropped 2%. Nine to ten out of 11 sectors closed lower. Weekly$BTC lost 85,000, and this time the positive news didn't help
The US and Iran talked for three hours, oil prices fell below 100, and ETFs saw nearly 1.6 billion inflows for three consecutive days. BTC didn't rise but fell, dropping from 87,000 to 84,000, with OKX hitting a low of 83,856.
The problem lies in the quality of the positive news. The US and Iran are "willing to talk," not "reached an agreement"—the Hormuz shipping route hasn't resumed, so oil price pressure remains. The Fed just raised rates in September, and the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly broke 5%, causing non-interest assets to naturally suffer under high interest rates.
The ETF money isn't as stable as it seems. The net inflow for the entire third week of September was only 6.21 million USD, the closest to zero since listing. Moreover, it's highly concentrated: BlackRock and Fidelity took almost all of it, with zero inflows in other products. This is not "institutions buying," but "institutions only buying BlackRock."
The options market is even more worth pondering. There is 15.9 billion nominal open interest, 9.4 billion in Calls, with 55% in the money. The dense Call area is between 90,000 and 100,000, while the current price is 84,000. The paper profits of these Calls require the price to continue rising to be realized. If it doesn't rise, closing positions itself creates selling pressure. The biggest pain point is 75,000, nearly 11% below the current price.
The supply ceiling for long-term holders is still between 83k and 86k—those who bought here can exit near breakeven. If 82,000 is touched, it won't just be short-term profit-taking but the unlocking of the entire range's trapped chips.
Placing orders waiting for a pullback is disciplined, and the discipline itself is not wrong. But discipline governs execution, not direction. Whether 82,000 can hold depends not on your orders but on whether those moving the sofas upstairs have finished leaving.
After options expire on Friday, market makers will withdraw hedges, and the market will rely on spot buying to support it. Where this buying comes from is more worth watching than 82,000 itself.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $ETH $ZEC Originally, I just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up giving me half a year's worth of dumplings. Last night at dawn, I was watching $CNPY, the chart was grinding and making me sleepy, but the lower shadow of CNPY was never eaten away, the support just didn’t break.
At that moment, I said one thing: someone is catching below, don’t scare yourself. Go long, leave the rest to the market.
From 0.1855 all the way up to 0.4101, +2420.48% gave the answer. This profit feels good, the wait was worth it.
The market is something you wait for, profits are something you hold for. Better to miss one limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding.
The approach is simple: take profit on 70%, protect the remaining 30% at cost price, if it keeps rising let the profits run, if it falls back don’t let the gains turn into pain.
For friends who haven’t gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in, chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak, wait for the next signal before moving.
$SOL $LAB Sharing a bullish logic on $EDGE, welcome to prove me wrong.
Everyone in the perpetual DEX sector is focused on HYPE and Lighter, but looking at the data, edgeX might currently be the most ridiculously priced.
Monthly protocol revenue: edgeX about $3.65 million, Lighter about $4.5 million. The difference is only 20%.
Circulating market cap: edgeX $214 million, Lighter $1.28 billion.
A 6x difference.
edgeX circulating supply is 35%, about half of which is airdropped tokens. The real circulating market cap is just over $100 million. Revenue difference is 20%, real market cap difference is 12x.
It has already repurchased 29 million U, which is 4.86% of the circulating supply. Currently repurchasing about 20,000 U daily, annualized to 7.2 million. For a real market cap of $100 million, this repurchase ratio is already quite high.
Some may ask, with monthly revenue of $3.65 million, why is repurchase only $600,000?
Because edgeX's revenue is net profit after deducting marketing and operating costs, not gross fees. Conversely, if future revenue increases or costs decrease, repurchase flexibility is large.
Currently, repurchase strength is much lower than the peak of over 100,000 per day; whether it can recover depends on the overall environment.
The current pricing also does not reflect edgeX's revenue capability. Reviewed the retracement of the last bull market cycle. BTC's previous high saw a maximum retracement of 22%, and after breaking the previous high, the maximum retracement was 33%.
If the overall increase this round is less than the last round — from 15,476 to 126,000, roughly 8x, and this round about 4x, following the logic that each cycle's gain halves —
then the maximum retracement before breaking the previous high this round should also halve,
around 11%.
Under this premise, after each 10% retracement in the bull market, long positions can aggressively go for 5x leverage with no pressure. After experiencing the largest single drawdown in nearly a year, it's not that Martingale is bad, but rather the unwillingness to cut losses promptly after Martingale's position holding. Improving technique is not as important as improving mindset $ZEC #