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Just saw that CME will launch BCH and UNI futures on October 19th
This is definitely institutional-level good news, clearly opening a compliant entry channel for traditional funds.
But look at this K-line, UNI surged to 10.94 then immediately dropped back to 9.1, BCH touched 366 then fell back to 347
So familiar, classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” again
Once the news came out, contract traders rushed in causing a double kill for longs and shorts, some got liquidated, some cut losses
If I were still like before, seeing good news and going 10x leverage to chase, I’d probably be out on the rooftop blowing wind now.
So my stance is very clear: you can lay in spot, but no need for contracts
This kind of regulated macro good news is for institutions to slowly build positions
I’m not worried if spot dips, just treat it as dollar-cost averaging
Trading time for space, never entrusting my life to manipulative spikes by pump-and-dump players
Now I just honestly accumulate spot in batches, close contracts, and wait for that wave of sentiment premium before the official launch in October
Survive longer, earn more.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 After Bitcoin surged past 87K, the really interesting part is: ETH and XRP have also started to accelerate.
This time, BTC isn't the only one pulling the market.
BTC: reached a high of about 87.3K
ETH: climbed back near 2,800
XRP: once surged above $1.57, clearly outperforming BTC in recent trading days.
Now, the three can be viewed like this:
BTC: watch if 87K can hold as support
ETH: watch if 2,800 can stay firm
XRP: watch if volume can continue to expand around 1.60
If BTC holds steady around 87K while ETH and XRP continue to catch up, it indicates that capital might be spreading from Bitcoin to mainstream altcoins.
Conversely, if BTC falls below 85K, ETH drops back under 2,700, and XRP falls near 1.50, then caution is needed as this rally may be cooling off.
So now, don’t just focus on Bitcoin.
What’s truly worth watching next is—
whether BTC remains stable, whether ETH follows, and whether XRP can keep running.Trapped me again
Long positions trapped me
Short positions trapped me too
What does this mean?
I'm really fed up
Opened 30 ETH long positions at 2724
Currently floating loss of 1785U
100x leverage really gets hit both ways
—
$ETH four-hour chart retraced from 2806 to around 2665
Short-term momentum is indeed weak
But around 2660 is also the previous bull flag breakout area
As long as 2560 to 2565 is not completely broken
This upward structure still holds
Reclaiming 2720, first target 2780 to 2807
After a valid breakout, still looking at 3050
—
$ZEC 24-hour trading volume close to 2 billion USD
From around 1620, 2000 is still about 23% away
ETF incremental funds plus privacy sector heating up
NU7 has again gained a large number of coin holders' support
Speeding up transactions while retaining the halving mechanism
This narrative is not over yet
So my target remains 2000
—
$OKB is really the only spot asset making me money
Although it pulled back in 24 hours
It still rose over 8% in seven days
The fixed supply logic of 21 million tokens remains
Holding spot is actually more comfortable than me trading back and forth
Wish there was a contract
But if there really was a contract
I guess I'd have to give back profits with 100x leverage again
—
But ETH liquidation price is at 2552
Just right below key support
The direction can be right
Don't let a single wick send people out directly
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ 💰 Increasingly, I feel that for a long time in the future, what I am truly willing to exchange my wealth for may still be Bitcoin + scarce physical assets.
Why?
🏠 Real Estate Housing prices and financing costs have already put housing affordability under pressure in many markets, while global demographic changes and birth rate shifts also introduce new variables to long-term housing demand.
💵 Cash Cash certainly has value, but it is more suitable for providing liquidity during high volatility, crises, or while waiting for opportunities. Holding it long-term faces issues of inflation and declining purchasing power.
📉 Bonds The decades-long cycle of falling interest rates once brought long-term tailwinds to bonds, but the interest rate environment has now changed. Recently, U.S. long-term Treasury yields remain high, and the traditional 60/40 portfolio is facing new challenges in returns and correlations.
📊 Stocks Stocks remain an important asset class, but market valuations, interest rates, and the concentration brought by the AI theme mean we cannot simply extrapolate the past decade-plus performance into the future.
Meanwhile, AI continues to reshape new capital expenditures and industry trends. Recently, AMD’s market cap surpassed $1 trillion, and AI-related chips and infrastructure sectors continue to be market focal points.
₿ And Bitcoin is becoming increasingly different. $CASHCAT I was just complaining to a friend about this week's market, but I have to take back my words now, a bit awkward.
Yesterday afternoon, CASHCAT kept testing the upper side repeatedly. Every time it surged, it fell just short, volume didn't keep up. I advised not to chase longs, and that shorts could wait for a weak rebound. Entry price was 0.1749, current price 0.1575, return +198.97%. The earlier hesitation turned out to be really rewarding.
Being out of position isn't a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
Hold as long as the trend is intact; if it breaks, exit. Don't fall in love with the market.
Take 80% profit first, move the remaining 20% stop-loss to the cost price. If it continues to drop, let the profits run. Now is not the time to rush; wait for a new structure to form. Opportunities remain, don't be anxious.
$ADA $ETH What’s most worth watching about ETH this time isn’t how much it has dropped, but whether it slowed down when BTC was dumping.
BTC fell from 87K down to 84K, and market sentiment clearly cooled.
But looking at ETH in real trading, I’m now focusing on three levels:
2,700: short-term strength/weakness level
If it holds, it means funds are still supporting.
2,800: rebound confirmation level
Only if it climbs back above this with increased volume can it be considered truly recovered.
2,600: next observation zone
If 2,700 breaks, this will become the next key level.
There’s another important detail:
If BTC continues to fluctuate but ETH rebounds first with volume, it may mean funds are starting to flow from BTC to ETH.
Conversely, if BTC rebounds but ETH can’t keep up, it shows that currently the willingness to chase ETH prices isn’t strong enough.
So for this ETH move, I’m not rushing to guess the top.
I’m just watching whether 2,700 can hold and whether 2,800 can be reclaimed.
These two levels might be more valuable references than simply watching price ups and downs. $ETH The alarm hasn't sounded yet, but the fire doors of the safety passage have already been completely blocked by these gamblers blindly chasing highs.
When I first entered the market with $BCH, I clearly made a pact with myself for a "quick reconnaissance in the fire zone" strategy, agreeing to a fast in-and-out strike and then retreat. But as the flames surged, not only did I fail to retreat, the safety rope was also firmly pinned down by heavy objects. When facing a 20% unrealized loss, I told myself to tactically lie low on the spot; at a 50% unrealized loss, I comforted myself that I was establishing a permanent firebreak; now trapped on the 347.8 high-temperature rooftop, the air respirator's pressure gauge has long hit zero, and I actually started to believe I am a "long-term value rescue operator."
With only two breaths of residual pressure left in the oxygen tank, everyone knows jumping down would result in a near-fatal fall, but as long as I don't cut the safety rope, I haven't failed the rescue. The upper Bollinger Band is capped at 360.03, resembling a ceiling that could ignite at any moment, while the RSI hovers at 58.1, neither up nor down, and in the thick smoke, it's impossible to see which window offers a way out.
I really want to ask those still desperately throwing dry powder into the fire: are you trying to put out the fire, or just adding fuel for yourselves?
- Target: $BCH 🟢
- Entry: 344.0 - 348.0
- TP1: 360.0
- TP2: 375.0
- SL: 333.0
The firebreak has no room to retreat; 333.24 is the last bottom line before the load-bearing beam breaks.
#StrategyPlaybook #FireEscapeNotes Bitcoin dropped straight from 87,000 to 84,000, and the market sentiment switched faster than the price. 😂
At 87,000, the comment section was still discussing how to break through 90,000;
Then a big bearish candle came down, and immediately the discussion started:
"Is the bull market over?"
But at times like this, the easiest mistake to make is to see one big bearish candle and immediately declare the trend dead. $BTC $ETH Just after surging to 87K, it dropped sharply to 84K. This big move in BTC likely forced out not spot holders, but leveraged positions.
Don’t rush to call a top or bottom just yet.
For the real market, I’m only watching three signals:
BTC: Can it quickly reclaim 85K from 84K?
Reclaim = support after the drop
Fail to reclaim = keep an eye on 82K-83K
ETH: Can it hold 2,700?
If BTC falls but ETH resists, it means funds haven’t fully withdrawn.
XRP: Is there buying around 1.50?
If XRP stops falling first, market risk appetite might be recovering.
The key point:
If BTC rebounds from 84K and ETH and XRP follow suit, this sharp drop might just be a leverage washout;
But if BTC’s rebounds keep getting pushed below 85K and all three major coins weaken together, be cautious of further downside seeking support.
Watch 87K for a breakout,
84K for support,
85K for reversal.
Tonight’s real highlight isn’t how much BTC fell.
It’s who’s stepping in to buy after the drop below 84K. $ETH $BTC $BTC $ETH $ZEC Bitcoin Early Morning Market Overview (September 24)
Bitcoin broke through the $84,000 mark at 1:19 AM today, reaching $84,286, down 0.37% from one hour earlier. However, intraday volatility was intense. Influenced by an unexpected surge in US business activity data and rising Treasury yields, BTC fell below $84,000 about an hour after the data release, reversing the earlier intraday rally that had briefly pushed it up to $87,000.
Liquidity continues to improve. On September 24 Eastern Time, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net inflow of $241 million, with BlackRock's IBIT leading with a single-day net inflow of $129 million, followed by ARKB with a net inflow of $37.72 million. The total net asset value of ETFs has reached $149.7 billion.
Market divergence widens. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warned that Bitcoin stabilizing around $60,000 does not mean the current down cycle has bottomed out; the true bottom range may still be near $10,000. The current rebound looks more like a "final warning" before further declines. His reasoning is that liquidity in the crypto market remains tight, US Treasury yields stay high, continuously diverting funds, and institutions lack the motivation to hold highly volatile Bitcoin. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ $ONE A zombie chain has actually been hopping around for so long, and today it crashed as expected. Fortunately, not many brothers touched it.
Attitude remains same as few days ago: don't touch it! Touching it means becoming a bag holder:
1. Mainnet is shut down, so fundamentals are gone.
Moreover, chain was hacked by North Korean hackers for 100M in 2022, and in Aug this year, 23M was sold due to contract vulnerability. No sign of coming back to life.
2. No whales taking over on-chain: no acShort squeeze is not a bull reversal; chasing longs above 86,000 is easy to get stuck
The three major mainstream coins have shifted from weak recovery to short covering + ETF capital inflow. What to guard against now is not an immediate major pullback, but the market misreading the short squeeze as a new trend, chasing and adding longs near 86,000, 2,760, and 119.
BTC: Recovered above the long-term moving average, the strongest structure repair in nearly 300 days. Supports at 85,200/84,000/83,000; resistances at 86,800/87,400/88,000-90,000. The original short concentration zone between 83,000-86,000 has turned into short-term support. Medium-term bias is bullish; current price is better suited to wait for a pullback rather than chase highs.
ETH: On-chain and institutional accumulation continues. Supports at 2,700, 2,640-2,560; resistances at 2,800, 2,890, 3,000. 2,700 is a key dividing line: holding it could test 2,800-3,000; breaking it points to support at 2,640.
SOL: ETF inflows present, contract positions proportionally high. Supports at 114, 110-107; resistances at 120, 123-125. Above 114 is relatively strong; breaking it warns of a pullback. Leverage heating up faster than spot demand.
Crypto total market cap returns to 3 trillion. Today's focus: US PMI, Trump and Xi Jinping meeting window. Personal opinion, not investment advice.
💡Reminder: Short squeeze is a repair, not confirmation. Waiting for a pullback is more comfortable than chasing highs.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 Today the biggest conflict with high Beta is here: ARB surged directly from around 0.212 to above 0.25 in one day, SUI is hovering near $1, and LINK is slowly reclaiming 13. One is a violent breakout, one is a high-level rotation, and one is a steady recovery; the trends are completely on different levels.
#HighBeta continues to sprint ahead
#Small coins enter a new round of selection
$ARB is currently about 0.252, with a high today of 0.2557. The 0.24–0.245 range has become the first support zone; if it holds, watch for 0.256, and only after firmly standing above that look toward 0.27. The single-day rise speed is already very fast; this position is more suitable for waiting for a pullback rather than chasing the last leg.
$SUI is currently about 1.009, with 0.995–1.00 as the first defense today. Look for a breakout above 1.015 first, and only after truly reclaiming 1.05 can it be considered a recovery of the strong momentum from the past two days.
$LINK is currently about 13.15, with 12.83–12.9 as support. Watch for a breakout above 13.16 first, then up to 13.30.
This lineup: ARB holds 0.24, SUI waits for 1.05, LINK waits for 13.3. A sharp surge easily attracts chasing, but the real value is if the breakout level can be held the next day.【Demon Slayer 007】Same name, I found two different contracts
This time, not talking about tactics, but a more upfront trap.
Among 41 profiles, one name appeared twice: AAE.
Not a memory error. These are two completely different contracts:
Contract One 0x15351604e617…
Deployer 0x0d5716f7…33c09d
Holders 356,904
Contract Two 0x7d9c3bd1eb0b…
Deployer 0xa617bbae…6cd15e
Holders 446,231
Exactly the same name, but none of the addresses match.
Combined, 800,000 addresses, both fully loaded, liquidity is $0.00.
The tactic is the same old one: unlimited minting to dump + owner can change any address balance.
So when you hear someone say "AAE went up," and you search for AAE —
Which one did you actually buy?
This is why I never judge a coin by its name.
Names can be duplicated, icons can be copied, candlesticks can be faked, holder counts can be manipulated.
Only one thing can’t be copied: the contract address.
30-second self-check: when you get a coin, first check the address, not the name.
The name is given by others, the address is etched on the chain.
Both profiles are listed on the site, verify the addresses yourself.
If unsure, drop a comment, I’ll verify publicly.The previous level theory has already been organized and published. Today's segment is all new insights; the more I sort out the logic, the clearer it becomes.
Today's round of operations, although agonizing, had the benefit of exposing all the long-hidden problems within the system.
Looking back at today's 1-second intraday chart, the root cause of the problem becomes clear:
At the very beginning, the order was placed incorrectly. After the mistake occurred, instead of stopping to calmly review and wait for a new qualified opportunity, I rushed into the market, repeatedly bottom-fishing. In the morning, I first opened a long position and got liquidated, then consecutively bottom-fished twice more. When the market briefly dropped and slightly rebounded, I immediately entered without waiting for the trend to fully stabilize or form a consolidation structure.
When the market returned close to the original price, I entered again and ultimately suffered the full brunt of a downward move, which was very painful.
The core issues are twofold:
1. Confused long-short logic: The trend judgment was unclear. During the downtrend cycle, I still habitually thought about bottom-fishing and going long, without switching to a short-selling mindset.
2. Loss of control over trading rhythm: After making a mistake, I did not pause but hurried to recover losses, continuously buying and selling back and forth, abandoning patience and forcibly seeking opportunities.
New trading discipline: Once a position is wrong and incurs a loss, immediately stop opening new positions, pause to review the mistake, patiently wait for the market to form a complete structure, confirm level resonance signals, and then consider taking action. Do not repeatedly enter near the same price to avoid stepping into consecutive traps and suffering the full downward move.This drop to 84K has hit the truly critical level.
Now, if I were to monitor the live market, I wouldn't guess "whether it will rise or fall tonight," but rather watch how the price unfolds.
BTC has three scenarios ahead:
① Hold at 84K → reclaim 85K
This is the most important recovery signal to watch.
If volume expands simultaneously, then look towards 86K and 87K.
② Repeatedly test 84K → support appears at 82K-83K
This indicates the market is still digesting previous profits, but it doesn't mean the trend is ending immediately.
③ Continuously lose 84K → rebound can't even reclaim 85K
This pattern calls for clear caution, indicating selling pressure remains above.
Now looking at ETH and XRP:
Who resists the fall when BTC drops,
Who moves first when BTC rebounds.
These two details are more valuable than just looking at a single candlestick.
The biggest fear in live trading isn't making one wrong call.
It's having no plan and following emotions whenever the price moves. After BTC dropped to 84K, I am actually not in a hurry to judge the bottom now.
In live trading, the most valuable is often the first rebound.
If BTC rebounds from around 84K next, I will watch three moves:
First, watch 85K.
Can it recover with volume?
Second, watch 86K.
When it reaches here, should we continue to chase, or will selling pressure appear immediately?
Third, watch 87K.
If the volume significantly increases when retesting 87K, then it is necessary to reconsider the breakout.
At the same time, keep an eye on ETH and XRP:
BTC rebounds + ETH retakes 2,700
BTC rebounds + XRP retakes 1.50
If these two signals appear simultaneously, it indicates that market risk appetite is recovering.
But if BTC rebounds to around 85K and then gets hammered down, and ETH and XRP cannot keep up, then it is not a strong rebound but more like a technical pullback during a downtrend.
So tonight I will not predict where the bottom is.
I will wait for the market to tell me whether there is anyone to catch at 84K.On September 22, the U.S. and Iranian representatives held nearly three hours of communication near New York, with Qatar participating in the message transmission. Both sides said the talks were "good," but so far, a truly meaningful agreement has yet to materialize. 🇮🇷 The core conditions Iran is concerned about include: • partial easing of maritime restrictions • handling frozen funds • reducing regional conflict pressure • discussing further opening of the Strait of Hormuz 🇺🇸 after progress is made so far, the U.S. has not responded significantly to these conditions. 📉 However, the market has already begun trading expectations of "easing the situation." After the news broke, crude oil prices fell rapidly, and the market began betting that energy pressures might ease and inflation expectations could ease. Meanwhile, $BTC rebounded from around $80K to around $85K, with risk asset sentiment improving in tandem. ⚠️ However, it should be noted that the U.S. and Iran leaders have not yet met directly, and the Strait of Hormuz issue has not been truly resolved. As long as shipping and energy supply risks are not fully resolved, crude oil may still experience significant volatility again. 📊 My market interpretation: This meeting feels more like setting the negotiating table back rather than having already reached a final agreement. In the short term, the market may continue to switch between expectations of "easing the situation" and "escalating risks," so volatility may remain high. ₿ As for whether $BTC can continue to strengthen, the market deserves two key points to watch nextWhen prices rise, everyone studies when BTC will break new highs and when the altcoin season will fully start.
When prices fall, positions suddenly become "long-term investments," stop losses suddenly become "value beliefs," and being stuck suddenly is called "growing together with the project."
Before the market falls, everyone is a trend trader; once it falls, all accounts are ten-year shareholders.
So the market never lacks analysis; what it lacks is thinking clearly before placing orders: what if you're wrong.
After all, you can talk about long-termism, but contracts have no long-term shareholders.
$BTC #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ #交易纪律Let's smash it down again
Almost got out of the trap
If it can't pull up this time, I will hold this short position to the death
$ETH has finally been smashed down this round, the lowest has reached around 2633, and my 2640 short position has hope again.
Now it has rebounded to around 2660, but the 1-hour MA5, MA10, and MA20 are all pressing from above, the strong momentum after the 2806 high has been interrupted.
Next, I mainly watch 2680–2700
If this area can't be reclaimed, I will continue to hold the short position. If it breaks below 2630 again and the rebound can't hold, the retracement space will truly open, and around 2600 can be watched further.
The stop loss at 2800 is still set, and this time I don't plan to keep flipping positions back and forth.
$SNDK is also weakening simultaneously
After the 1908 high, it has fallen back to around 1824, and the short moving averages are all pressing down. If 1830 is lost again, the space left by the previous sharp rise is likely to be given back.
$AEON is relatively more resistant to decline
Currently around 0.062, with support near 0.058, but the range 0.0625–0.064 has not truly broken through yet. It is more of a consolidation repair now, and chasing in is not very cost-effective.
Now it depends on whether ETH can truly break through 2630. After enduring for so long, I just want to wait for a straightforward retracement next.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ People watching the live market now won’t rush to guess the direction.
Because it only took a few hours to drop from 87K to 84K.
This kind of movement is often not about watching the news, but about seeing how the funds react.
Right now, I’m focusing on 4 details:
① Whether there are repeated buy orders supporting at 84K
If it falls near 84K and always gets pulled back, it means someone is absorbing the sell-off.
If each rebound gets weaker, it means the buying power is retreating.
② Whether ETH is stronger than BTC
In a normal decline, ETH will fall along with BTC.
But if BTC falls and ETH’s decline starts to narrow or even rebounds first, it means funds haven’t exited but are rotating positions.
③ Whether XRP will continue to resist the drop
Recently, XRP has clearly been stronger than many mainstream coins.
If BTC pulls back and XRP can still maintain strength, market sentiment may not have completely cooled down.
④ Whether 85K can be reclaimed
87K is the previous high, 84K is the sentiment level.
And 85K, I think, is the most important level tonight.
If it can reclaim 85K, there’s still a chance to test 87K again.
If it stays below 85K, the market may continue to look for support around 82K-83K.
In live trading, the most important thing is not prediction.
It’s:
Watching who chases on the way up,
Watching who absorbs on the way down.
Because the real big money often comes out of the dip.$ONE A zombie chain has actually been hopping around for so long, and today it crashed as expected. Fortunately, not many brothers touched it.
Attitude remains same as few days ago: don't touch it! Touching it means becoming a bag holder:
1. Mainnet is shut down, so fundamentals are gone.
Moreover, chain was hacked by North Korean hackers for 100M in 2022, and in Aug this year, 23M was sold due to contract vulnerability. No sign of it coming back to life.
2. No whales taking over on-chain: A magical scene: The Fed raised interest rates last week, and institutions were still saying "maybe four to six more hikes are needed" to suppress inflation, yet the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high tonight, and $BTC kept pushing upward.
According to the old script, risk assets should shrink during a rate hike cycle. But with oil prices crashing and inflation expectations easing, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back from above 5%, and the market immediately switched to risk-on mode, with riskAfter Bitcoin dropped from 87K to 84K, the real question now isn't how much further it will fall.
Instead, it's whether it can recover the lost ground during the rebound.
I will divide the upcoming trend into three observations:
Rebound and retake 85K: indicates that support after the drop still holds.
Challenge 87K again: suggests the recent sharp drop might have just been a leverage cleanup.
Fail to even retake 85K during the rebound: short-term caution towards 82K-83K should continue.
Looking at ETH and XRP:
If BTC rebounds and ETH first recovers 2,700 while XRP retakes 1.50, it shows risk appetite is recovering.
If BTC rebounds but these two coins lag completely, caution is warranted.
A truly strong market isn't one that can't fall, but one that can quickly recover after falling.
Tonight, this is what to watch.This big drop in Bitcoin has directly revealed the market's most genuine side.
At 87K, everyone was discussing a breakout, but after falling to 84K, the topic suddenly shifted to "Is it going to keep falling?"
But I want to observe one detail instead:
When BTC falls, do ETH and XRP show an excessive drop?
If BTC continues to fluctuate around 84K while ETH and XRP start to stop falling, it indicates that panic might mainly be concentrated on BTC profit-taking.
If all three drop sharply with volume, then it’s not just a simple BTC correction, but a decline in overall risk appetite.
In the short term, I will watch:
BTC: 84K → 82K
ETH: 2,700 → 2,600
XRP: 1.50 → 1.45
No need to guess the bottom.
First, see where real support appears.
Because falling is not scary; the scariest thing is when no one supports every rebound.BCH surged 30% in one day, rising 50% for the week, hitting 358.
CME announced it will launch its futures on October 19.
Wait, I've seen this script before.
In the last round, BCH also rallied on news like "institutions are entering," and then? Nothing happened.
Right now, $BTC is still hovering around 84000, but BCH has already pumped 50% on its own.
Is the money genuinely bullish on BCH, or is it just an excuse to hype a short-term pump?
Grayscale is still applying to convert its trust to an ETF, which is a concrete move.
But the gap between futures going live and ETF approval is huge.
Short-term traders are most easily fooled by the word "bullish" at times like this.
For now, I'm watching to see if it can hold above 340.
Do you think this rally can last until October 19?
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $BTC $BCH 98.7% win rate, net loss of 27042 U.
Over three hundred trades with only 4 losses — sounds like a chosen one.
The reality: 311 wins, averaging 663 per trade; 4 losses, averaging 58383 per trade.
This is not skill, it's arithmetic. Without stop-loss, a random walk can achieve a 98.43% win rate (theoretical and actual differ by only 0.3 percentage points).
Where is the loss? Averaging down against the trend. The median number of contracts lost per losing trade is 10 times that of winning trades; two huge losses total −232986, exceeding all profits.
Counterfactual calculation: limiting each trade to 2000 contracts results in +116941.
I am publicly sharing my quantitative test records, with more failures than successes. If you want to follow, hit the follow button.
$ETH BTC dropped from 87K to 84K, and market sentiment is shifting even faster than the price.
But the easiest mistake to make right now is to immediately conclude the trend is over just because of one big bearish candle.
I'm currently focusing more on three signals:
① Whether 84K can be reclaimed
If it recovers quickly, it indicates there is support after the sell-off.
② Whether 82K-83K can hold
If there is obvious buying here, the short-term structure is not completely broken.
③ Whether ETH/XRP will also drop in sync
If BTC falls but ETH and XRP's declines start to narrow, it means funds have not fully withdrawn.
Conversely, if BTC rebounds but can't hold above 84K, and ETH and XRP continue to weaken, then be cautious of the market searching for lower support levels.
At 87K, we watch for a breakout; at 84K, we watch for support.
The real answer of the market often doesn't come from the highest point, but from what it tells you after the pullback.Fundamental Research Report $LPT / Livepeer (DePIN) $3.20
To put it simply: Livepeer ($LPT) has a composite score of 49/100, rated as an early-stage project with insufficient validation. Breaking it down into three layers: the company team has cash reserves, the protocol network shows signs of paid usage, and token value capture has been realized.
First, the project: Livepeer (token $LPT), in the DePIN sector. It focuses on decentralized video transcoding. Competitors include RNDR and AR. Traditional computing power rental giants like AWS and CoreWeave charge by GPU hours, with A100 monthly rents ranging from $12,000 to $25,000, which is expensive and has a high entry barrier. On-chain solutions fragment computing power for bidding, allowing suppliers to avoid centralized audits, turning idle GPUs into available supply. The average customer price is $50–$500/month, requiring settlement in USDC or fiat. This is a narrative-driven sector, with usage dropping 60-80% in bear markets. Positioned as an end-to-end vertical platform. Product implementation: the protocol layer is officially operational, on-chain dashboards show protocol fees accumulating, with evidence of paid usage. The latest version was not found; there were 60 valid commits in the past 90 days.
On the user side, MAU and DAU are undisclosed, 24h trading volume is $80.00M, TVL not found. Wallet addresses do not equal monthly active users; concentration of large addresses can overestimate real user numbers. On the revenue side, user fees are undisclosed; supplier income is about 80-90% of user fees (allocated to LPs and nodes), protocol treasury income is $2.00M, token holder buyback and burn is annualized with no burn mechanism. The 24h trading volume is business turnover, not revenue. Company profit does not equal protocol profit, protocol profit does not equal token holder profit. On the code side, 60 valid commits in 90 days, 25 active contributors, latest version not found. GitHub is grade A evidence and can be directly verified. Investment background: company equity financing can be checked on PitchBook/Crunchbase (grade A), token private and public sales can be checked via whitepaper, release schedule, and on-chain unlock contracts (grade A), market makers and ecosystem funding are grade B and do not represent long-term holdings by technical VCs, technical integration can be checked via API/SDK evidence (grade B), strategic partnerships and logo walls are grade D. NVIDIA GPU usage does not equal NVIDIA investment; exchange listings do not equal strategic exchange investment.
On the token side, total supply is 1,300,000,000, circulating supply 950,000,000 (73.1%), FDV $4.20B, next unlock in 2026-Q4 (adding +3.50% to circulation), annualized burn/buyback has no clear mechanism. Is buying tokens required to use the product? Partially yes, with moderate value capture (staking/discount/governance). Compared with peers (using uniform criteria, no cross-sector comparisons): Circulating market cap: Livepeer $3.00B, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. FDV: Livepeer $4.20B, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Annual revenue: Livepeer $2.00M, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Monthly active addresses or users: Livepeer undisclosed, RNDR undisclosed, AR undisclosed. Figures are based on public data snapshots; missing data supplemented by official reports or industry standards. Valuation: circulating market cap $3.00B, FDV $4.20B, P/S 1500.0x, FDV divided by revenue 2100.0x. Pessimistic view discounts $3.00B by 50-70%, neutral range oscillates, optimistic view expects revenue doubling, burn implementation, enterprise clients entering, FDV P/S aligns with top players. Overall: evidence insufficient, narrative-driven (score 49/100). Token value capture realized (buyback/burn/gas). Circulating market cap is relatively expensive compared to fundamentals, overleveraging expectations, FDV is moderate. Main risks: short-term large unlocks dumping, protocol revenue long-term zeroing, token demand relying solely on incentives (usage collapses if incentives stop). Tracking metrics: weekly protocol fees, burn amount, active address retention, TVL/loan balance, GitHub version releases. Information sources are public, logic self-developed, not investment advice. Data deviations over 30% require reassessment.
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#FundamentalResearchReport #Crypto #Research #OKXOrbitJust now it was still at 87K, now it has dropped below 84K.
This decline is not just a simple gradual fall. Data shows that after BTC broke below 84K, about $237 million long positions were liquidated in a short time.
What’s more noteworthy is that about $16 billion worth of BTC options expire this Friday, so short-term volatility may continue to increase.
Right now, I’m only watching three levels:
84K: Whether it can be reclaimed
82K: The next key support
87K: Strong resistance after rebound
Also watching ETH together:
If ETH can still hold around 2,700 when BTC breaks below 84K, it means the capital support hasn’t completely disappeared.
For XRP, watch if it can reclaim around 1.60.
So don’t be scared by a big bearish candle now, and don’t rush to bottom-fish.
Whether 84K can be reclaimed is more important than the earlier surge to 87K.
Whether this wave is just washing out leverage or the trend is really starting to weaken will become clearer in the next few hours.Bitcoin dropped directly from 87K to 84K. Those who were just shouting about a breakout are probably quiet now.
But I think the most important thing to watch now is not how much it has fallen.
It's whether there is buying support at 84K.
87K: Resistance on the rally
85K: Short-term strength/weakness boundary
84K: The key area currently being tested
82K-83K: The next observation zone
At the same time, watch three coins:
BTC: Can 84K hold steady?
ETH: Can it hold around 2,700?
XRP: Is there support near 1.50?
If BTC quickly recovers to 85K near 84K, and ETH and XRP also stop falling simultaneously, this looks more like a normal consolidation after a rise.
But if 84K continues to fail, and 85K cannot be reclaimed on a rebound, then we need to start guarding against further support testing around 82K-83K.
We were just discussing whether 87K could be broken, but now the market is starting to test 84K.
That's how the market works.
Don't focus on sentiment; watch how the price moves. $FIL has broken 1, the wall has turned into a floor
After grinding through the integer barrier for so long, today it finally stepped on it.
1. Change of control at the threshold: 1.045, 1.00 is the first to stabilize in sight. The next two days will reveal the outcome; if it holds, a new map lies ahead.
2. Correlation returns: On Tuesday, it moved along with the storage sector, SanDisk +6.8%, Micron +5%, Western Digital +3.7%, and FIL's 5.97% is finally not alone.Going long 📈
Now is the best position
Buy on dips
My 78 ETH long positions are still open
I won't exit even if profit retraces 10,000U
This wave is just a pullback after a breakout
I continue to treat it as a bear trap
—
$ETH fell from 2786 to around 2650
24-hour trading volume is still $18.6 billion
Up 11.3% over the past seven days
Volume hasn't disappeared
Just more intense high-level turnover
More importantly, whales have increased holdings by 15,000 ETH through Galaxy Digital
The average add-on price is $2751
Currently holding a total of 52,000 ETH
Average cost is $2161
Unrealized profit exceeds $31.1 million
Technically just completed a bullish flag breakout at 2661
2560 to 2565 is the bulls' defense line
If this holds, continue to watch 2775 to 2825
After breakout, 3000 to 3050 remains the target
—
$ZEC is currently trading around $1568
24-hour trading volume exceeds $2.4 billion
Market cap has reached $26.4 billion
Capital activity has not decreased at all
1650 is the immediate resistance
A volume breakout first targets 1800
Then up to 2000
I won't change the 2000 target
But intermediate consolidation and shakeout are inevitable
—
$SNDK today pulled back from 1896 to around 1830
This phase is more suitable for waiting for a pullback to go long
Institutions recently gave a buy rating
Target price directly at $2400
Around 1820 can observe support
Reclaiming 1900 is a signal for a second start
If it breaks below 1800, control positions first
—
The direction can be firm
If broken, admit the mistake
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ $ETH — How will the dog whales cut next?
Short term (48 hours): Most likely to oscillate between 2,600-2,786. 2,724 is the short-term watershed — a volume breakout targets 2,786-2,800; if it can't break through, it will retest 2,633-2,600. If it falls below 2,633 (24h low), it may accelerate the retest to 2,550-2,544.
Medium term: ETH ETF inflows of 413.8 million over two days + CME open interest up 8% + BitMine increasing holdings by 12,500 ETH, with these three core drivers, ETH still has room to grow. If the weekly candle closes above the 100-week moving average, it could open the 3,300 to 3,400 USD range. But RSI near 71 + stochastic indicator over 90 + whales cashing out 52.07 million USD — a pullback could happen at any time.
The biggest risk: RSI6 at 13.21 extreme oversold rebound + SAR and SUPERTREND all pressing overhead + whales cashing out 52.07 million USD above 2,600. This rally is driven by short covering + ETF buying, not spot buying. Once the fuel for short covering runs out, real buying is needed to push it — if buying doesn't keep up, a pullback could happen at any time.
A heartfelt last word
ETH is at 2,659 today, with ETH ETF inflows of 413.8 million over two days, CME open interest up 8%, BitMine increasing holdings by 12,500 — a mountain of positive factors. But RSI6 at 13.21 extreme oversold rebound, SAR and SUPERTREND all pressing overhead, whales cashing out 52.07 million USD above 2,600 — all three risk signals are red. An analysis said it clearly: "Market sentiment has entered an extreme greed zone, which historically is often a precursor signal for a short-term reversal." At 2,659, chasing highs is like giving the dog whales New Year's gifts. Control your hands, wait for confirmation of a breakout at 2,786 or a retest at 2,600 before acting. Remember, surviving long in crypto is ten thousand times more important than making a lot of money! Meeting adjourned!In the past couple of days, I saw the news that Binance invested 100 million USD in Circle, and I think there is a question more worth discussing than the amount.
Why are more and more platforms nowadays no longer obsessed with creating their own stablecoins, but instead choose to invest or cooperate?
I think the reason is simple.
The competition of stablecoins is no longer about "who issues the coin first."
It's about who can build a larger payment network, broader use cases, and more real capital flow.
So recently, when I look at a project, I pay less attention to just the price.
I focus more on:
• Whether on-chain transactions are growing;
• Whether stablecoin circulation is expanding;
• Whether capital is continuously flowing in;
• Whether the number of real users is increasing.
For these recent data, I usually check Ave.ai first.
Many times, the news is just the result.
The real changes have long happened on-chain.
What do you think will be the core of stablecoin competition in the future: issuance or ecosystem? BTC has started moving sideways, which is actually the chart I want to watch the most right now.
After BTC surged to 87K, it didn’t continue to rally crazily, and capital began to diverge:
BTC: high-level consolidation
ETH: starting to test around 2,800
XRP: still watching the key level at 1.60
At times like this, what’s really worth observing is who can keep strengthening while BTC is resting.
If BTC holds above 85K and consolidates, while ETH and XRP continue to outperform BTC, it indicates that capital might be searching for new momentum.
Conversely, if BTC drops and ETH and XRP immediately dive as well, it means the market is still solely supported by BTC.
So tonight, don’t just watch BTC’s rise and fall.
Watch who can make their own move when BTC is stagnant.
That’s the signal worth focusing on for the next phase.After Bitcoin surged to 87K, the real market change is that bulls and bears are starting to place new bets.
Previously, BTC rallied from around 75K to 87K, with a short-term gain exceeding 15%.
At this level, two scenarios are most likely:
Some start chasing longs,
Some begin to take profits.
So now, don’t just watch the price; watch how the market holds up after increased volatility.
BTC: Can it break through 87K a second time?
ETH: Can it hold above 2,800?
XRP: Can it continue to increase volume above 1.60?
If BTC quickly recovers above 86K after a pullback, and ETH and XRP strengthen simultaneously, it indicates that risk appetite is still present.
But if BTC spikes then falls back, and ETH and XRP slow down together, short-term caution is needed against concentrated profit-taking by bulls.
A truly strong market isn’t one that just keeps rising.
It’s one where, after a drop, there are still buyers willing to step in.
In the next few hours, I’ll be paying more attention to the "reaction after the pullback."Alright, Brother Maji is really in trouble this time. Just a couple of days ago, he was happily watching a $4 million floating profit, but this short-term pullback wiped out all the profits, and now he's down $100,000. His trading moves are fierce, but looking at the results, it's tough on him!
Looking at his current positions, I can only say that the gambler's mentality is a no-go. On the $BTC side, he wisely reduced his position to lock in profits: a 40x long position with a liquidation price at 47,000, currently still up $45,000. But then he turns around and goes all in on $ETH and $HYPE. He’s all-in with 25x leverage on 37,500 ETH, floating profit over $40,000; the most outrageous is HYPE, holding over 210,000 tokens at 10x leverage, average price 94, now floating a loss close to $200,000, liquidation price at 70.6—he’s really pushing the limits on the liquidation line.
When the overall market pulls back even a bit, the destructive power of high leverage fully shows. Maji’s high-frequency adding to long positions this round—is it extreme confidence in bottom-fishing, or desperation to recover losses in one shot? Anyway, if it were me, I wouldn’t even be able to sleep with that position size. After Bitcoin surged to 87K, it didn't immediately crash; there's a data point worth watching behind this.
On September 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of nearly $999 million in a single day, and on September 22, there was still about $715 million flowing in. These large inflows over two consecutive days are more interesting than just looking at the candlesticks.
Now let's look at three major coins:
BTC: oscillating around 86K, 87K is a short-term key level
ETH: maintaining strength above 2,700
XRP: has been strengthening continuously and even broke through 1.60 at one point
A very clear change is happening in the market now:
BTC is responsible for attracting funds, ETH is starting to follow the rise, and XRP is beginning to capture sentiment.
If BTC holds steady, and ETH and XRP can continue to increase volume, it means funds haven't left the market but are looking for new directions to attack.
Conversely, if BTC falls below 85K, ETH loses 2,700, and XRP drops back near 1.50, this logic needs to be re-examined.
So what I most want to see next is not:
"Can BTC still rise?"
But rather:
After BTC stabilizes, who will become the next coin to take over the relay?After Bitcoin surged past 87K, what’s really worth watching might not be how much BTC can still rise, but where the funds are starting to flow.
Now, looking at BTC, ETH, and XRP together:
BTC: After breaking 87K, the key is whether 85K can hold
ETH: Whether it can stabilize again around 2,800
XRP: Whether it can break out with volume near 1.60
If BTC consolidates sideways but ETH and XRP continue to strengthen, this market pattern is actually worth noting — funds might be spreading from BTC to mainstream altcoins.
If BTC breaks out again with volume above 87K, and ETH and XRP rise in sync, market risk appetite could further heat up.
Conversely, if BTC falls below 85K and ETH and XRP weaken together, be cautious that this rally might enter a phase of consolidation and digestion.
Don’t just watch whether Bitcoin is rising.
What’s really worth observing next is:
BTC sets the direction, ETH shows the spread, XRP reflects the sentiment.
Which one are you paying more attention to now? No more moves tonight, Brent crude oil is targeting me, the lowest drop price is 96.75, which is also my stop-loss line. After hitting it, it rebounded all the way up $
$$
At 10:30 tonight, the Iranian president threatened not to yield to US military pressure. Along with the raised expectations of a second rate hike, I took a 50x Brent crude oil contract position, setting the stop-loss at $96.75. Before 10:50, the contract was up 12% profit.
At 10:52, Reuters reported: A senior Iranian official said Tehran is reviewing the US response to Iran's proposal to end hostilities. In indirect talks with the US on Tuesday, both sides discussed reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade. The key priority is a long-term end to hostilities and lifting the US naval blockade. Brent crude experienced a sharp 15-minute plunge to $96.75.
Subsequently, Iran explained that the contact between the Iranian foreign minister and Trump's negotiation representative was unauthorized and not empowered to negotiate decisions related to the war's direction with the US. Brent crude then rose all the way to $98.35.
I really have no moves left. After hitting my stop-loss line, it rebounded all the way? How can it be so coincidental? Using my stop-loss line as a turning point???$ONE is bearish, with a high probability of dropping below 0.0020 within 72 hours. The public chain stopped producing blocks starting September 10, with the height stuck at 93624315 for about 13 days, confirmed by 3 independent nodes. After the chain stopped, the price actually took off, closing at 0.000632 on September 15 and reaching a high of 0.00607 on September 21, a roughly 9.6x increase in 6 days, with fundamentals at zero, leaving only sentiment and chips. The 24-hour perpetual contract fell from around 0.00565 to 0.00286, a drop of about 48%. Spot prices on various platforms range from about 0.0021 to 0.0030, with a price gap of about 45%, deposits and withdrawals are blocked, and there is no arbitrage to anchor the price. Perpetual contract open interest is about 4.2 million USD, with a rate of -0.025% paid by shorts; negative rates often lead to continued declines, not a short squeeze fuel. Returning to the pre-pump range of 0.0006-0.0013 is just a matter of time. Conditions for a bullish reversal: the public chain resumes block production and the price gap across platforms narrows to within 5%. The biggest abnormal market this week was fully revealed today: #BTC成交萎缩, can ETF buying rebound? Geopolitical risks eased, and the market should have celebrated, but BTC proactively broke down and declined. The three-hour US-Iran talks went more smoothly than expected, Trump directly described the conversation as "very good," risk sentiment sharply rebounded, and oil prices simultaneously fell below the 100 mark. Logically, with the biggest uncertainty suppressing global risk assets released, Bitcoin should have surged with the trend and continued its breakout rally. But the market was completely off the script. BTC fell all the way from the intraday high of 87,251, dipping to a low of 83,856, directly breaking the key support of 85,000. Yesterday, the market was still enthusiastically discussing breaking through 90,000 and challenging new highs; today, a pullback and shakeout began early. Even my small positions started showing floating losses, and the market felt extremely abnormal. Even stranger: there was no negative fundamentals, and funds kept flowing in. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $1.59 billion for three consecutive days. Money was clearly entering continuously to support the bottom, but the price couldn't hold up at the high level. This shows the problem isn't with off-exchange funds, but with selling pressure inside the market that can't be contained. Strong willingness to cash out at high levels: profit-taking positions at low levels and exiting, previously trapped positions breaking out and fleeing, short buying momentum exhausted. Multiple factors combined, concentrated selling pressure from above, and buying couldn't withstand the surging selling pressure. #BTC冲高 $87,000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion — simpleThree-hour talks?
It’s just like a blind date:
Qatar is the matchmaker,
Iran demands the bride price,
The US says, "Let me think it over." 😄
Conditions slammed on the table:
Lift the blockade, unfreeze funds, stop regional conflicts,
Only then will the Strait of Hormuz open.
US: Mm-hmm, next time for sure.
Not a single promise made.
The so-called "positive signal"
is just that neither side flipped the table.
A tough standoff, continuing the stalemate.
The market cheers first.
Oil prices plunge,
Inflation just catching a breather,
$BTC climbs from 80,000 to 85,000.
But no meeting with the president, the strait remains closed,
Oil prices could strike back anytime.
Trump is still focused on the midterm elections:
Iran is watching, and he’s stalling too.
Real deal?
Let’s talk after November. 😞
These three hours,
weren’t peace talks,
just handing over a list of conditions.
There are positives and negatives.
Don’t just watch the candlestick charts dance,
The big picture still depends on:
US Treasury yields + ETF fund flows.
$ETH $BTC $ZEC
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 以为山寨没跟上就是没行情，其实这轮更像是事件在重新定价，强弱顺序被悄悄改写了。 你有没有发现，最近拿BTC和拿小币的心情完全不像在同一个市场？ 我自己盯盘最明显的感受是，BTC冲高到87000附近、加密总市值回到3万亿，这种级别的数字会先改变预期，再改变仓位。很多人第一反应是"山寨怎么还没疯"，但市场交易的往往不是普涨，而是确定性溢价先回到BTC，再考虑要不要分给ETH，最后才轮到高波动标的。Strategy继续增持、财库同步加仓这类动作，被定价的不是一笔买入本身，而是"还有没有下一笔"的预期。 数据快照 - BTC：冲高87000，总市值重返3万亿，情绪修复的第一落点 - ETH：相对BTC偏弱，但它是风险偏好扩散的中间站 - 山寨：分化明显，只有叙事+资金同时到位的才跟得上 - 情绪：从恐慌转向试探，但还没到全面贪婪 - 节奏：事件驱动型反弹，不是无差别普涨 动能信号 - 大市值先动，说明资金愿意承担方向风险，但还不愿意承担个体风险 - 财库类买入持续出现，给BTC提供了叙事底，不一定是价格底 - 总市值回升比单币拉升更重要，它代表整体风险预算在恢复 风险信号 - 如果BTC冲高后In this wave of Bitcoin, the biggest thing to be wary of is actually not the decline.
It surged from around 75K to 87K, rising more than 15% in a short time.
Now the market sentiment is clearly heating up again, but the more it is like this, the more you need to pay attention to one detail:
Whether there was volume expansion during the rise, and whether there was support during the pullback.
If it can hold steadily above 87K, the market space may further open up.
But if it quickly falls back below 85K after the surge, short-term funds are very likely to start taking profits.
So next, I won’t guess the top.
I only focus on one sentence:
Above 87K, who is still buying? US and Iran officials talked for three hours in New York.
Trump said "very good, constructive," and scheduled the next meeting.
The hot topic is sending positive signals, and oil prices have also eased somewhat.
But don't just listen to slogans — on the same day, he also made tough remarks at the UN General Assembly. Easing is expected, not a finalized agreement.
If the Strait of Hormuz really eases, risk appetite will heat up first; if talks break down, there will still be a short-term crash. Just surged past 87K, the most important thing to watch for BTC now isn’t "whether it can keep rising," but whether the 87K breakout can hold on the pullback.
On September 21, BTC once surged to $87,371, then retreated; on September 23, it closed around $84,495. From the low of about $74,995 on September 16 to 87K, the increase was nearly 16% in just one week.
Now I’m watching three levels:
87K: previous high resistance
85K: short-term bull-bear dividing line
82K–83K: key pullback zone for this rally
If BTC can quickly recover to 87K after pulling back near 85K, it means bulls haven’t clearly retreated despite the surge.
But if 85K breaks → and 83K can’t hold either, then be cautious that this 87K might just be a profit-taking spike after the rally.
What’s even more interesting is that the total crypto market cap recently climbed back above $3 trillion, and this rally has been accompanied by nearly $1 billion-level inflows into US spot BTC ETFs.
So don’t just focus on whether "87K is the top."
What’s truly worth observing is:
After BTC drops, is there still capital willing to buy in?
If yes, 87K might just be a resistance level;
If no, then it’s time to reassess the strength of this rally.Evening strategy realization second consecutive:
Short BTC at 85873, exit at 83990, securing 9.4k
We are not fortune-tellers predicting the market, only disciplined hunters executing trades.
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $BTC selling pressure is limited, but high leverage is a hidden risk!
First, aSOPR remains around 1.01, indicating limited on-chain profit-taking pressure. Compared to the breakout phase in August when aSOPR once rose to about 1.04, this round of rally has not brought a similar increase in profit-taking. Bitfinex believes the market currently does not need to digest significant selling pressure.
Second, Bitcoin contract open interest has rebounded above $61 billion. Once funds weaken, high leverage will amplify the pullback. The current funding rate is about 0.01%, in a neutral range, but market sentiment has entered an extreme greed zone, which historically is often a leading signal for short-term trend reversals.
Third, approximately $250 million in short positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, amplifying the short-term rally. Wintermute believes this rebound cannot be simply attributed to a short squeeze; the more critical reason is that the related negative factors had already been priced in by the market in advance.