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Just now: The Zcash NU7 testnet has been activated at block 4,465,026. The upgrade plan shortens the block time to 25 seconds and introduces a new sustainability mechanism. There was a weekly net outflow of nodes on the $ZEC ETF for the first time last week, which is quite worth noting. Additionally, PGPZ, as the advocacy group for Zcash, has been lobbying in Washington since October 1. When a coin simultaneously has access to capital markets, protocol upgrades, and policy actions, it’s hard not to be revalued Supply in Loss is increasing, indicating rising market stress. But if historical patterns repeat, the current level may represent the early phase of a bear market rather than the final bottom.BTC whale activity is frequent, is the price about to break through again?
Recently, the $BTC market has been very interesting in terms of news.
On one side, institutions have expressed intentions to increase their holdings, while on the other, ancient whales are gradually waking up and transferring out their chips.
Strive CEO directly signaled that the company plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings, aiming to hold more BTC.
This is a typical institutional bullish signal, providing medium- to long-term expected support for the market.
At the same time, there have been consecutive whale anomalies on-chain.
An old address dormant for over 13 years just woke up, holding 801 BTC with unrealized gains as high as $67.82 million.
It first transferred a small amount to test addresses; once these ancient chips start moving, it can easily trigger market selling pressure concerns.
There was also a large transfer of 800 BTC, valued at about $68 million.
This whale's holding cost spans a wide range, from $100 to $85,000, making the chip structure very complex.
However, there is no need to panic; there is strong hardcore buying support below.
The market has observed strong buy support in the $83,000 to $84,000 range.
Previously, large sell orders appeared multiple times at this level to push the price down, but they were directly pulled back by buyers.
This range coincides with a dense on-chain chip area, showing strong capital absorption.
Currently, the market is in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Institutions want to continue increasing their positions, but early whales hold huge unrealized gains and may cash out at any time.
There is strong support below to hold the bottom line, while above there is potential selling pressure from old chips.
In the short term, it is highly likely to remain range-bound; only a breakthrough of key levels will lead to a one-sided market move The retreat of sentiment indicators often does not mark the end of a market trend but rather serves as the entry ticket for the next round of upward movement.
The Fear and Greed Index dropped from a greed peak of 78 points on September 22 to a neutral zone in early October. On the surface, this looks like a cooling of enthusiasm, but in essence, the market is digesting the previous round of emotional overextension. When the index is above 80 in the extreme greed zone, it means chasing funds are crowded and leverage is piled up, making prices more sensitive to negative news; any slight disturbance can trigger a chain of forced liquidations. Returning to the neutral zone between 50 and 60 indicates that short-term speculative bubbles have been squeezed out, the position structure has completed a round of turnover, and floating chips have decreased.
Historically, after the index repairs to the neutral zone, the market faces two paths: if there is a lack of new catalysts, sentiment will consolidate sideways in the neutral zone; but once incremental funds enter, macro policies shift, or ecological benefits emerge, the index can surge from the 50s back into the greed zone. There is a 20 to 30 point emotional space to be released in between, which is enough to support a round of upward movement without triggering severe overbought conditions. Compared to a hard rally from the extreme greed zone, a market starting from the neutral zone has a more solid foundation and better sustainability.
It is important to note that the neutral zone itself does not indicate direction; it is merely a low-burden starting position. The subsequent focus for $DOGE is whether the index can hold above 50 and whether trading volume can expand in sync with the sentiment recovery. The emotional space has already been freed up; what remains is to see when catalysts will appear.DOGE's price movement in the first week of October gave a clear signal: the support around 0.092 held firm. Over the first four trading days, the price gradually fell from 0.094 to 0.092, with bears continuously testing the bottom line; on October 5th, the price rebounded to 0.096, closing the weekly candle with a pattern of initial suppression followed by a rise. The significance of this structure is that the dip did not trigger panic selling; instead, it attracted buying interest at the low level.
From the order book logic perspective, the 0.092 to 0.093 range withstood multiple days of pressure without breaking, indicating that the orders clustered there are genuine buy orders rather than momentary liquidity. After bottoming out and rising back to 0.096, it shows that buyers are not content with just defending but are willing to reclaim lost ground. The confirmation of support at the weekly level is a medium-term signal, carrying more weight than a rebound on a single daily candle.
Looking ahead for $DOGE, there are two key observation points: first, whether 0.092 can transform from support into a bottom platform—if it holds, the rebound structure will continue; second, the previous high resistance around 0.096 to 0.098, which requires volume support to break through. Current holders are better off using the support level as a risk control reference rather than chasing higher and adding positions. Support confirmation does not equal a one-sided rally; short-term fluctuations remain normal, and keeping some position flexibility is safer.Bitcoin quietly pulled up over the weekend. This rally is quite interesting; the first half was driven by a short squeeze, rising from 85.4k to 86.6k. Binance BTC+ETH liquidations reached 33 million, accounting for 52%, OKEx BTC+ETH liquidations totaled 21.3 million, with most liquidations being shorts. These two exchanges contributed over 80% of the liquidations.
In the second half, contract positions continued to increase, with whales adding longs and retail traders adding shorts. The liquidation peak at 87.4k might be tested again, but there isn’t much fuel to push higher beyond that. Overall, it looks like a range-bound battle with back-and-forth harvesting, gradually lifting the bottom to accumulate strength for a continued upward move. The outlook for Q4 is generally optimistic, with October marking the start.
Tonight at 10 PM, there is an ISM service sector data release. If it continues to weaken, it will further reinforce the expectation of no rate hike in October, which is a mild positive. Conversely, it would be negative but with limited impact. It’s quite possible this will be used to complete the short squeeze around 87.4k.NVIDIA is heavily backing the "American version of DeepSeek," and the AI open-source model is about to face another wave of cost reduction impact.
According to reports, the AI team strongly supported by NVIDIA is about to release an open-source model, and the market has already started comparing it to DeepSeek.
The impact of this on the crypto space may not be immediate or direct in the short term, but areas like AI computing power, AI Agents, and decentralized AI could be the first to feel the emotional momentum.
The transmission logic is simple:
Improvement in open-source model capabilities → Reduction in AI usage costs → Accelerated AI application deployment → Increased demand for computing power and Agents → AI+Crypto narrative regains funding attention.
However, it is important to note a contrast here: models becoming cheaper does not mean all AI projects will benefit. On the contrary, rapid iteration of model capabilities may further eliminate AI projects lacking real products and users.
My judgment is that this kind of news is a medium- to long-term positive for the AI sector, but in the crypto space, short-term trading is better suited for "capital rotation" rather than blindly chasing AI concepts.
Next, the focus should be on whether AI computing power, AI Agents, and decentralized AI sectors show simultaneous increases in trading volume and capital.
If the AI narrative becomes the market's main theme again, capital may gradually shift from BTC/ETH to high Beta AI assets.
What truly deserves attention is not "who is the next DeepSeek," but who can genuinely turn model capabilities into products, revenue, and users. $XAU 【Small target 1000, exit at 570$】
In the early session, the 4-hour and 1-hour midlines show resonance resistance, which is also the 4155-60 resistance zone.
Entered the market to short at 4160, currently all exited at 42, exiting at 570$.
For the second trade idea, focus on the 4130-33 support for a buying opportunity and the continued resistance around 4160 above. The $CORE CORE project team will most likely end with a "soft exit."
The project team has already paved their retreat through legal firewalls (registered in the Cayman Islands, anonymous team, excluding US users) and asset transfers (converting profits into BTC and other assets). They will not actively announce a "runaway" but will gradually stop maintenance, letting the project "naturally die" as liquidity dries up.
For holders, the most likely outcomes are:
Staked CORE: As nodes exit and frontends shut down, it will most likely be impossible to retrieve, turning into "digital fossils" that cannot be transferred on-chain.
Staked Bitcoin: The assets remain on the Bitcoin chain, but the redemption path has been cut off, requiring extremely high technical skills for any slim chance of recovery.
Exchange trading: As more exchanges delist, liquidity will be completely exhausted, eventually making buying and selling impossible. BTC Market Analysis
【Weekly Level】
Last week on the weekly chart, the previous high was tested and closed with a bullish candle, so the probability of the red line scenario is relatively low.
1) The current weekly price is 86500, with a key observation point at 83000; staying above this, the target is above 90000.
2) If the price goes above 90000, it is likely a wick; the weekly candle body is unlikely to close above 90000.
【Daily Level】
1) The rise from 74090 started from 57758 and is the last segment of the upward move; after this segment ends, a major correction will follow.
2) Daily resistance is between 86000-90600 with continuous suppression and multiple divergences; the bullish observation point is raised to 82500, and if broken, a correction will begin targeting 79000 and 73000.
【4-Hour Level】
1) The breakout above 85000 mentioned last Friday has been completed; a test above 86000 was also completed with a drop of 3000 dollars, landing exactly at the 84000 support level.
2) Last time it dropped without breaking the previous high; this time there is a very high probability it will test the previous high at 87385. 4-hour support: 84900-85600 $ZEC held for 19 hours, earned 4,690 dollars on a long ZEC position, with a 94% return!
In the early morning of September 30, a long ZEC position was opened at 1,392 with 20x isolated leverage, and closed at 1,459 at 8:35 PM that night—earning 4,690 USDT, a 94.48% return. Held for nearly 19 hours, closing volume was over 90,000 U.
After opening this position, ZEC started to slowly rise. Although there were some pullbacks in between, I wasn’t worried at all—I had set the stop loss and the direction hadn’t changed, so I just left it alone. Worked when I needed to, slept when I needed to, occasionally glanced at it, and seeing it still rising, I kept holding. That night, when the price reached around 1,459, I thought it was about right and closed the position, pocketing 4,690 dollars.
Honestly, this money was earned very solidly. Using 20x leverage for 19 hours really tested my mindset, but because I didn’t watch the market too closely, I was able to hold on.
Some insights:
· Big money is made by "sitting" on positions, not by "trading" them.
· 20x leverage + 19 hours holding tests your mindset completely.
· If the altcoin’s direction is right, you can make big profits.
Next steps:
· Withdraw 80% of the profits to secure gains.
· Continue with 20x leverage, look for low points to open long positions.
· Maintain a rhythm of "watch less, sleep more."
Earning 4,690 dollars in 19 hours was worth it.
#ZEC #LongPosition #SecureProfit$BTC treats the classic four-year BTC cycle as a script and "carves a mark on the boat to seek the sword": 2026/10/05 falls exactly within the time window of the current bear market low. Strictly speaking, this is a coincidence of the cycle model, not a price prediction. History may rhyme, but it never copies exactly. If the old script continues, this could be a turning point area; if the macro rhythm is rewritten, the low might just be part of the process. Don't treat the cycle as a decree, let alone as an all-in signal. Do you think it will replay this time? The bottom line for survival in the crypto circle is always to stay alive
If trends determine whether you can profit, then position sizing and risk control determine whether you can survive in the market. Every liquidation tragedy in the crypto circle, without exception, is caused by heavy positions, no stop-loss, and holding through losses
We have all seen countless people double their money quickly and get rich, but very few survive long-term by heavy positions. The harsh reality of the trading market is: one heavy position liquidation can wipe out the gains of a hundred small profits
1. Never be fully invested or go all-in. Build positions gradually in spot trading and roll them over, reserving enough funds to handle pullbacks; never take heavy positions in contracts to gamble, use small positions to seek large returns, and reject the mindset of gambling small to win big
2. Always set stop-loss for every trade; not taking profits or stop-loss is a major trading taboo. Set stop-loss points and loss thresholds before opening a position, decisively exit when the market breaks support, do not hold losses or add positions to average down, preventing small losses from becoming large losses. Stop-loss is not losing money, it is cutting risk and the core method to protect principal
3. Take profits timely to avoid floating gains turning into losses. Profits in crypto are just numbers on paper; only withdrawing to cash is real income. When contract profits reach expectations, reduce positions by half and withdraw profits, use profits to trade the market, never gamble profits back
4. Avoid frequent and emotional trading. Trying to recover losses hastily or greedily adding positions after profits are the deadliest trading mindsets. After a single trading mistake, stop immediately and review, do not revenge trade or blindly add positions
The market is always there; once your principal is lost, opportunities are no longer yours. Luck determines the upper limit of profits, discipline and risk control determine the lower limit of survival, protect your principal $BTC This is the longest position I've held so far, showing some improvement in patience. Keep it up, opportunities are always there. Don't buy in just because you missed out; losses are real losses.🔷 $BTC to $400-450K in 7 years
• Fred Krueger: BTC could reach $400-450K in 7 years
• Forecast based on the history of the largest US companies
• ETF launch in January 2024 = BTC's "institutional IPO"
• "Offering price" — $40-45K (price at ETF launch)
• Tenfold growth leads to $400-450K
• Facebook, Google — 9 years to x10; Nvidia — 7 years
• 2.6 years have passed since the ETF launch
🧠 The analogy with Nvidia/Facebook is appealing, but BTC is not a company
❓ Is the IPO analogy correct?👇BTC is the key to watch before deciding on altcoins. When BTC rises but dominance is too strong, capital may still be in BTC and altcoins have not benefited yet. When BTC moves sideways steadily, liquidity usually starts to flow to ETH, SOL, XRP, and high-beta tokens. SOL has an advantage in ecosystem speed but high volatility, so chasing after a strong bullish candle often leads to a sell-off. With TRUMP, the capital flow is narrative-driven and highly speculative, so it should not be equated with foundational assets. Prioritize volume, OI, and support structure.Time locks provide an escape window for upgrades but are not a cure-all
If an upgradeable contract executes immediately after a proposal passes, users have almost no time to understand the new code or withdraw their assets. A time lock delays execution by a clearly defined period, allowing researchers to review changes, frontends to issue warnings, and users to exit if they disagree. It does not prevent malicious proposals but changes invisible instant control into an observable countdown.
The length of the time lock needs to match the risk. Too short is insufficient for audits and exits; too long slows down real vulnerability fixes. Therefore, emergency pauses and regular upgrades often use different permissions. Governance security on $ETH is not a fixed number of hours but a combination of proposal transparency, exit liquidity, scope of permissions, and emergency procedures.
Time locks can also be nominal: users may not know the announcement channel, bridge exits may take longer, or admins might bypass the delay through another path. When evaluating contracts, all upgrade entry points should be checked for the same constraints and whether assets can actually be withdrawn during the countdown. Only if exit rights are enforceable is the time lock a protection; otherwise, it is just a waiting animation on the interface.Woke up to find the market stirring again.
🌍 International Oil Prices
🥇 Gold
🥈 Silver
₿ Bitcoin
📈 U.S. Stock Futures
Multiple global asset classes are strengthening simultaneously, and risk appetite is heating up again.
What’s even more noteworthy—
Starting this December, the U.S. stock trading system will move further toward an "all-weather market."
Nasdaq plans to adopt a 23-hour/5-day trading schedule from December 6, leaving only a 1-hour system maintenance window each day.
What does this mean?
In the past:
🌙 Europe and U.S. close → Market temporarily "quiet"
In the future:
🌏 Asia → Europe → U.S.
Capital, information, and price discovery will become more continuous.
Meanwhile, the crypto market has long been accustomed to 7×24-hour trading.
As trading hours for assets like U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin increasingly approach "all-weather" availability, the time boundaries between traditional financial markets and crypto markets are being further broken down.
The future financial market may no longer be about "open and close" but about continuous global liquidity.
$BTC $GOLD $SILVER $OIL $SPX
Trading in the new era is becoming more and more like the internet.
NFA.$ZEC liquidations are basically all small short positions, while smart money's 80M short remains firmly on top! 👁️ Within 24h, 871 people liquidated, averaging just over $3,000 each, largest single only $170,000. In contrast, smart money camp heavy short 80.53M hasn't been forced out, avg cost 1252 and overall floating loss only 7%. Main force pulled this move, wiping out all small trivial retail shorts. Fuel that needed to be burned already gone. To push higher from here, real money will have $NIGHT looked weak from the start—the rebound had almost no volume, and buyers simply couldn’t follow through.
Short from 0.04937 → 0.04545, now around +158%. 😏
Taking 70% profit and protecting the rest at breakeven. No need to squeeze every last drop.
Patience and risk control matter more than one big trade.
$LAB $BTC
#FedECBMeetingMinutes
#HormuzStillClosed
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge ETF outflows are picking up, but I’m not panicking yet.
$BTC and $ETH are seeing withdrawals, but ETF flows are backward-looking and don’t automatically signal a trend reversal.
I’m watching the key levels:
BTC: 84.2K / 83.5K / 82.8K
ETH: 2,640 / 2,580
OKB: 119.6 / 117
For now, let price action confirm the direction instead of reacting emotionally.
#BTC #ETH #OKB #DYOR
#FedECBMeetingMinutes
#HormuzStillClosed
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #Hormuz Still Closed, OPEC+ Maintains November Production Quotas Unchanged
Hormuz is still closed, and OPEC+ remains "inactive"—this combo is ruthless
No change in November quotas sounds neutral, but don’t be fooled by the headline:
Actual production has long been below quotas, with Gulf oil exporters only operating at a normal 60%–80% capacity.
OPEC+ isn’t unwilling to release oil; it simply can’t; G7 releasing reserves is just a lifeline, not changing the low inventory backdrop.
What does this mean for crypto?
➊ Oil prices hover around $100, inflation trades recycle, and risk asset valuations are suppressed
➋ BTC isn’t a pure safe haven; when macro liquidity tightens, leverage is cut first before narratives are discussed
➌ Energy/RWA/payments/mining coins will be used by funds to speculate on the "geopolitical theme," but don’t chase euphoric peaks
➍ The real turning point isn’t OPEC meetings, but whether Hormuz reopens and if the US and Iran can reach an agreement
Current market keywords:
Crude oil sets inflation, Hormuz sets sentiment, BTC sets liquidity.
Don’t blindly rush into "war coins" just because oil prices rise, nor call the bull dead just because they fall.
In this environment, survival depends on position sizing, not loud voices.
Short term: BTC watches the range, ETH follows risk appetite, altcoins only trade on event-driven moves.The two that haven't risen haven't failed to rise; it's just that no one is buying.
Chain games have also moved, with most altcoins doubling from the bottom.
Some still hold two that haven't moved: $TRUMP and $WLFI.
What others think: No rise means cheap, waiting for a catch-up rise.
The doubling is calculated from the bottom.
Those who bought at the bottom have long left; those hanging on now are waiting for the next wave.
What I think: No rise means no one is willing to pay a higher price.
$TRUMP surged once but was pushed back; $WLFI has been sideways all along.
Whether it pumps depends on if someone is willing to pay first.
Watch the volume; if there's no volume increase, don't move.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $TRUMP $WLFI $CAP $CAP /USDT This chart is quite interesting. Outside, it's completely quiet with no news at all, but inside the order book, it's a fierce dog-eat-dog battle. At the 0.0644 level, funds are aggressively pushing and dumping, clearly the dog whales are shaking out the market. It's hard to say if the scythe has been raised, but short-term selling pressure is definitely heavy. Why is it worth watching? Without any news interference, pure technical play is cleaner, and the intentions of the funds are easier to reveal. The risk is also straightforward: the dog whales could suddenly trigger a short squeeze anytime, so don't get carried away. What do you think—is this a shakeout or a real sell-off? 👇👇👇【On-Chain Trading Activity｜BTC】
Monitored address 0xc30c opened a short position:
▪ Execution price: 86,626.26 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 170,059.48 USD
▪ Leverage: 19x10.5BTC Layout Strategy
Currently, Bitcoin has risen from the low of 83381 with progressively higher highs and higher lows, surging to the previous high of 87249 before experiencing a pullback. Essentially, this is a normal profit-taking digestion after a wave of gains. The Bollinger Bands are overall opening upward, supporting the price, with the middle band acting as the "safety line" for the short-term bulls. Meanwhile, the 85400-86200 range is the previous breakout platform's top-to-bottom conversion zone, the area where effort was spent to push the price up. The larger bullish structure remains intact, so the operation is to follow the trend and rely on support to scale in gradually.
First Entry: Around 86200 for a light long position (top-to-bottom conversion zone and Bollinger middle band support; if the pullback deepens, add near 855)
Stop Loss Defense: 84800 (if it breaks below the lower Bollinger Band, the short-term bullish structure is destroyed, exit unconditionally)
First Target: 87200 (previous high + upper Bollinger Band resistance, reduce position by half)
Second Target: 88500 (price breaks previous high with volume and holds, remaining position aims for new highs)
Third Target: 90000 round number (ultimate target if intraday bullish momentum continues strongly) $BTC $ETH 10.5 earned 33 today 🔪 A couple days ago, ETH surged, many said it would break 2800 and take off, which made me emotionally chase high and open position, but it dropped back to low of 2646 overnight. I started rolling position to lower avg price. Quite tough during period, after all, first time using full margin to open position, and if liquidated, everything would be lost 😥 Fortunately yesterday it kept rising slowly and steadily. Before bed, I set take profit at 2735. Last night even sa#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变
The OPEC+ meeting concluded with the decision to keep the crude oil production target unchanged for November, with no new plans to increase output. However, the core issue is not the quota numbers: the Strait of Hormuz has still not resumed normal navigation, and the actual export volume from Gulf oil-producing countries remains constrained. Even if quotas remain unchanged, real supply is still tight.
Many people think OPEC+ is actively controlling the market by not increasing production, but the essence is that geopolitical factors are blocking crude oil export routes. Even if producing countries have capacity, tankers cannot pass smoothly, so crude oil cannot be shipped out. The G7's release of strategic reserves can only provide a temporary buffer and is unlikely to completely reverse the supply gap. The risk of high oil price volatility remains.
From the perspective of the crypto market, high oil prices will push up inflation expectations, indirectly suppressing rate cut expectations, and exert macro-level pressure on assets like BTC. Geopolitical news is a sudden variable, causing the market to surge and plunge easily. Leverage in contracts must be strictly controlled, and trading based on news should be avoided.
Going forward, focus on two signals: progress in the Strait's navigation and whether Brent crude can hold above the $100 mark. If the situation escalates again, market volatility will quickly amplify.
What do you think? Will this round of high oil prices continue to transmit and drag down the crypto market? The boss has something to say 👇: The Strait of Hormuz has yet to resume traffic, and OPEC+ has once again decided to keep November production unchanged. Now, the supply side can be described as "stuck at both ends," and the 100 million barrels of strategic oil reserves announced by the G7 have temporarily become the market's main buffer. But these 100 million barrels do not truly solve the oil price problem; it acts more like a "tranquilizer." The supply risks brought by the US-Iran situation still exist. When oil prices rise, the G7 can ease supply pressure and suppress inflation by releasing reserves. The problem is: the effect of the sedative will pass,Today's biggest supply event in the entire market is not on the trading board, but in ENA.
BTC is currently at 86,572, up 2.09% in 24h. But breaking it down: 24h total liquidations across the network reached $140 million, with shorts accounting for $115 million, over 81%. The largest single liquidation was Binance's ETHUSDT, $5.63 million. This rally is shorts being squeezed out, not real money buying.
Total network trading volume is 111.2 billion (+32.8%), open interest is 154.6 billion (+3.45%), yet BTC ETFs have seen a net outflow of 258 million in the past 30 days. Price rose, but spot funds haven't returned—the increase is leverage.
What really matters is ENA. Ethena compressed the originally scheduled monthly vesting until March 2028 into one day: unlocking about 1.41 billion tokens, accounting for 14% of the circulating supply, roughly $340 million. Another batch of 3.03 billion tokens (20% of total supply) was also unlocked but requires written approval from the foundation and a 5-business-day prior notice before selling. Clickbait only mentions 3 billion, ignoring this layer.
More critically: the "buyback switch" expected to support the price requires USDe supply to reach 7.5 billion to activate, but currently it's only 4.9 billion, 53% short. There was no buyback today, not a single cent.
The judgment is straightforward: ENA with this kind of "good story + real supply arrival" is a no-go in the short term. It even rose 0.8% today, which is the most dangerous sign—the negative news is not priced in.
The same applies to BTC; chasing longs above 86,000 is just covering shorts from yesterday. The three variables—10/14 CPI, 10/28 rate decision, 11/3 midterm elections—are all still ahead.
I remain out of position for the 4th day.
Would you step in to catch this kind of ENA unlock?
#BTC #ETH #SOL #ZEC #ENA #MarketAnalysis
$BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC $ENA
This is not investment advice.It's become really hard to make money by farming small profits in the crypto space nowadays. I did manage to catch a little bit of that farming bonus, but by the time I got in, it was basically the tail end. Still, I didn't seize the opportunity well; if I had farmed more accounts, I could have made more money.
In the second half of 2023, I only used arb once occasionally, and it paid me over $2,000, with just some gas costs invested. The risk-reward ratio was insanely high. So in the second half of the year, I farmed on zksync and starknet, as everyone in the crypto space was farming these L2s. The results were decent: I farmed 300,000 STRK and over 400,000 ZK.
But I didn't sell my STRK; I even bought $10,000 more at 1.8. After it dropped 90%, I cut my losses on STRK. I probably didn't make money on STRK, maybe even lost some. I learned my lesson with ZK and sold over 400,000 as soon as it launched, though it has also dropped over 90% now.
If I had farmed more accounts back then, I might have caught the last wave of farming bonuses and made more money. In the future, when I encounter such high risk-reward and odds, I must go all in because the worst loss is just some gas fees. It's way better than chasing meme coins or buying VC tokens.
Now in the crypto space, farming is mostly just occasional Binance alpha drops. Also, there was the recent Poly new token launch, but I couldn't participate because I didn't have the An Xiaojiang badge. There's also farming on perpdex by doing contract trades to earn points and contribute fees, plus prediction markets. I haven't done any of these; I don't want to play contracts on perpdex because I'm afraid I'll get tempted and lose control and actually gamble.SpaceX rose 7.35% in one day on Friday, closing at 158.96. I think this rally is driven by the story, not performance, so I’m not chasing it.
What I saw: Last Thursday, within 13 hours, SpaceX launched 3 rockets.
One sent 4 astronauts to the space station, another carried 130 payloads, and the third was a Falcon Heavy launch for a classified mission by the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office.
Among those 130 payloads was Google's orbital AI experimental satellite, carrying 4 TPUs into space. Google said they have already made contact and it’s operating normally.
Musk has also been talking about space computing power this week and is collaborating with NVIDIA on custom chips.
On Friday, 120 million shares traded, about 30% more than the 20-day average, closing at the highest since July 6.
My view: Launch capability is real skill, but space data centers are still far from profitable.
On Kalshi, the bet on a 1-megawatt data center running in orbit before 2035 is only 36%.
It’s still 30% below the post-IPO high of 225.64 in June, with many trapped positions above.
What to do: Watch and don’t chase. Wait for volume to hold above 160 before looking at 170. If it falls below the 20-day moving average around 150, this rally is invalid.
Do you think space computing power is the next big AI narrative, or just pure hype?
$SPCX $GOOGL $NVDA
#TheFedAndECBToReleaseSeptemberMeetingMinutes #NVIDIASharesHitNewAllTimeHighMarketCapNear6Trillion$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
This week marks an important risk window as the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will successively release the minutes of their September meetings.
The minutes, released early Wednesday, record the officials' thoughts at the time of the September meeting and do not include the just-released surprising nonfarm payroll data.
In September, employment was still strong, so the minutes are very likely to be hawkish; however, after the nonfarm data came out, the market has significantly lowered its expectations for a rate hike in October.
This creates a contradiction: hawkish wording VS weaker latest economic data.
Focus on two things
1. Federal Reserve minutes: watch how much disagreement there is among officials about whether to raise rates again by the end of the year.
- If the minutes are very hawkish: U.S. Treasury yields will rebound in the short term, the dollar will strengthen, suppressing gold and BTC;
- If there is significant disagreement and some officials lean toward pausing rate hikes: this is positive for risk assets and gold.
2. European Central Bank minutes: watch the ECB's attitude toward future rate hikes, mainly affecting the euro and indirectly transmitting volatility to the dollar.
Impact
✅ Gold: currently in a phase of oscillation and bottoming. Hawkish minutes will continue to pressure and test lower support; moderate wording will give gold a chance to rebound. During oscillations, news can easily cause spikes, so avoid chasing news trades.
✅ Bitcoin: has just broken upward, sentiment is bullish. If the minutes release hawkish remarks, a pullback shakeout is likely; if dovish, it will continue to boost bullish sentiment.
Brothers, do you think this round of minutes will be hawkish or dovish? 昨晚非农数据明显低于预期，仅新增 2.9万个就业岗位，远低于市场预期的9万，前值也被进一步下修，同时失业率升至 4.2%。 单看数据本身，对降息预期显然偏利好，但市场的表现却完全不是一路上涨，而是先拉升、后跳水——典型的“利好兑现，冲高收割”。 📉 BTC方面 非农公布后，BTC快速从 86,000美元附近拉升至87,200美元，短线多头情绪瞬间被点燃。 但高位并没有持续多久，随后卖盘迅速涌出，价格一路回落至 85,500美元附近。短周期均线也开始转弱，说明短线多头动能明显降温。 接下来重点关注 84,200美元附近的支撑，一旦这里失守，短线调整空间可能进一步打开。 📊 美股方面 纳指ETF QQQ一度突破 746，并冲上 754 创出新高，但随后没能站稳高位，价格回落测试 740。 740是短线比较关键的位置，如果跌破，当前强势上涨结构就需要重新评估；如果能够守住，则仍有机会再次向上挑战前高。 ⚡ ETH同样出现冲高回落 ETH白天缓慢走强，一度触及 2,777美元，但利好被市场消化后，随后一根大阴线直接吞掉此前涨幅，价格重新回到 2,700美元附近。 目前空头压力明显增强，2,G7宣布释放最多1亿桶石油储备，但油价没有大跌，BTC也没有明显上涨。 这件事需要拆开来看。 释放储备更像是缓冲措施，而不是解决方案。 1亿桶听起来很多，但霍尔木兹海峡的风险并没有消失，供应端的不确定性也没有真正解除。G7现在做的，本质上是在给市场争取时间，而不是彻底解决供应问题。 对 BTC 来说，影响是双面的： 短期来看，释放储备可能压低油价，缓解通胀预期，从而降低市场对加息的担忧，对风险资产形成边际利好。 但不要过度乐观。 释放储备意味着消耗库存。一旦地缘局势再次升级，油价可能快速反弹，通胀预期重新升温，BTC 仍然会面临压力。 中期来看，储备释放反而会让市场更加关注供应端的脆弱性。各国手中的“安全垫”减少后，未来应对供应冲击的空间也会变小，这种风险可能逐渐反映到资产定价中。 📊 BTC关键位置 BTC目前在 85,000 美元附近震荡： 🔺 上方阻力：87,000 🔻 下方支撑：84,000 释放石油储备可以短期压制油价，但暂时不足以改变 BTC 的整体方向。 如果想看多，我更愿意等待两个信号同时出现： ① 油价继续走弱 ② BTC 放量突破 87,000 只有这两个信号BTC is currently consolidating with reduced volume in the $84,000–$85,000 range, with the price suppressed below two resistance levels, but the structure leans more towards "accumulation before breakout" rather than distribution.
On-chain signals are mostly bullish. Selling pressure is dissipating, whales have accumulated about 75,000 BTC over the past 30 days, and long-term holders continue to accumulate. Bitwise points out that the average cost for ETF investors is around $83,000, which is the first key defense line bulls need to hold.
A macro window has appeared. September's nonfarm payrolls added only 29,000 jobs, far below expectations, and the probability of a rate hike in October has sharply dropped below 20%, improving short-term risk appetite.
Resistance above to watch: $86,500 is the first key level after ETF buying returns; breaking through it, $90,000 becomes the next psychological barrier. If the $83,000–$84,000 support zone fails, attention shifts to around $80,000 below. Bitcoin has risen back to 86,000😎😎
But I think the biggest danger now is not a drop, but everyone starting to feel "stable"
Currently BTC is around $86,160, with a slight increase in 24 hours, and the market greed index has reached 75.
Sentiment is warming up, but not strong enough yet to blindly chase longs.
Look first at 86,900—87,800 above; if it can break through with volume and hold steady here, there’s a chance to open up more space;
If it can’t break through, pull back to 84,500—83,800, hold there before considering buying again.
Do you think this wave will break through, or will it rise and then fall again? #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 BTC #摩根大通称比特币或跑赢黄金 Bitcoin #加密财库分化：买币还是回购？ As of October 2, 2026
$ZEC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $93.56 million within one week
This is the first "weekly net outflow" since its listing
It is also the first net outflow since late August this year
Outflow on September 30: -$30.25 million
Outflow on October 2: -$26.93 million
Causing its assets to drop from a peak of nearly $979 million in September to about $751 million
Before this, the fund had been attracting capital
And in September alone this year, there was a net inflow of about $246 million
Since the fund's listing on August 25 this year, the cumulative net inflow remains positive, about $213 million
$ZEC closed at about $1304 on October 3, down about 21% from the closing price of $1650 on September 26
But this does not mean the team is dumping the asset themselves
Rather, investors are redeeming shares, so the fund has to sell the corresponding ZEC back to the market, which puts some pressure on the spot price
Overall, from listing until now, it is still net profitable, with cumulative capital inflow remaining positive $ZEC is holding strong at the 1300 level
But don't try to bottom-fish anymore, don't pay for faith
You can recharge your faith for btc and eth, no problem
ZEC is a heavily controlled coin with no faith at all!
If it breaks 1300, look down to 1100
Don't listen to stories about privacy leaders already being listed
Look at whether the chips are concentrated behind it; once they sell off
The surge will be more violent than a waterfall!ETH hit 2730 this morning, while BTC hovered around 86700. This rally looks decent, but if you look closely, ETH climbed stepwise from 2690, touched 2739 in the early morning, and has now pulled back to around 2725. The 2730 level was tested last week but didn't hold and fell back. Whether it can hold this time depends on volume.
One background worth noting: On-chain data shows about 13.3 million ETH stacked between 2722 and 2822, all bought previously at these levels, now at break-even and ready to sell anytime. So ETH faces selling pressure near 2750. It's not that it doesn't want to rise, but the trapped positions above are too heavy. $ETH
BTC is relatively steadier. In the first two days of October, spot ETF net inflows were 134 million, with BlackRock's IBIT alone contributing 196 million. But ETH ETFs saw outflows in the same period, with Fidelity's FETH withdrawing 23.5 million. Institutions clearly have different attitudes toward the two assets: BTC is being bought, ETH is still being sold. $BTC
My view: Don't chase ETH above 2730; wait for a pullback near 2690 to see if it can hold. If it firmly holds 2730 with volume, then watch 2760. BTC at 86700 is stuck in a range; the 85000 to 87000 box hasn't broken yet. This morning's rally looks lively, but don't get carried away. Control your trades.Yesterday, $ETH briefly dropped rapidly by about $120 and is currently still in a weak consolidation phase. If it continues to decline next week, I will keep an eye on short opportunities but will not blindly add positions. 🎯 ETH key zones: • $2,620–$2,650: short-term rebound observation zone • $2,500: important support and the level where I would consider actively reducing positions • If $2,500 is broken, next focus is $2,420–$2,450 For BTC, the market is still waiting for confirmation of a new direction. ETF fund flows, macro interest rate expectations, and risk asset sentiment remain key variables affecting the next phase of BTC/ETH movements. ⚠️ If ETH finds support near $2,500 and climbs back above $2,680, the bearish view above needs to be reassessed. This looks more like a correction and re-accumulation rather than the end of the trend. Be patient for confirmation, do not chase the rally, and avoid emotionally adding positions during the decline. #FedECBMeetingMinutes #HormuzStillClosed #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #BTC #ETH$CT 🪙 Concrete (CT) Project Level: Token Not Launched, Controversies Persist
Core Issues: Token "All Name, No Substance," Hype Severely Detached from Reality
• Token is untradeable, suspected of being a "pie in the sky": Although Coinbase has included CT in its listing roadmap, it clearly cannot be traded, deposited, or withdrawn, and there is no launch date. Its circulating supply is zero, with contradictory supply data (official 100 million vs on-chain 6.25 million), causing market confusion and proliferation of fake tokens.
• Token value completely decoupled from business: CT is a governance token without economic rights to platform assets or fee income. Although the protocol manages $1.2 billion in deposits, token holders receive no direct financial returns, resulting in severe value mismatch.
• Strategy losses and massive slippage controversy: The community revealed that when the treasury swapped millions of USDT for USDC, slippage reached 0.49% (nearly $5,000 loss), 50 times the normal rate. Some users reported that interest was wiped out or even negative after a week of deposit, questioning flaws in the Delta-neutral strategy.
• Smart contract has critical vulnerabilities: Security analysis reports indicate upgradeable contract misconfigurations (CVSS 9.1), governance reentrancy attacks (CVSS 8.8), and cross-chain bridge vulnerabilities, with an overall risk score of 7/10, theoretically risking complete TVL drain.
💬 Crypto Twitter (CT) Ecosystem Level: Trust Collapse, Turned into a "Ghost Town"
• Moral hazard corrodes the ecosystem: KOLs aggressively monetize, packaging worthless tokens as sky-high valuations. Mutual "Fud" (fear, uncertainty, doubt) is routine, with lack of effective regulation.
• Massive user exodus, becoming a "ghost town": Retail investors permanently exited after events like LUNA and FTX, resulting in a "bull market with almost no retail investors." KOL trade calls often signal "dumping," severely draining traffic and trust.
• KOLs accused of "harvesting" followers: Many so-called "successful" accounts essentially exploit influence to make followers the exit liquidity. Newcomers are misled by survivor bias; 99.9% cannot accumulate lasting wealth trading meme coins.
💎 Summary
Concrete's CT token is currently in an awkward position of "having narrative but no market," with the token unlaunched and facing substantive issues like strategy losses and security vulnerabilities; meanwhile, Crypto Twitter as a public opinion arena is undergoing severe ecological decline due to moral hazard and trust collapse. The combination forms the main negative sentiment surrounding "CT" today.
If you want to dive deeper into any specific incident (such as smart contract vulnerabilities or slippage controversy details), just let me know. Latest on October 5: ETH spot quoted at $2730
September rebounded nearly 17% from the $2340 bottom, just one step away from the key resistance at $2800. 📊 Market Status:
✅Golden Cross is forming, with a bullish mid-term trend
✅ Continuous volume increase, holding the $2650 support level
⚔️ It is currently facing strong resistance at $2775–$2800, a position that has been knocked back several times since July
🎯 Citi's target price is $3028, analysts expect a push to $3050 in October
🔥 Tomorrow (10/6), the Glamsterdam testnet will be activated:
▫️ Protocol-level PBS is being implemented for the first time, with L1 directly scaling capacity
▫️ 200M gas block tested with expected throughput doubling
▫️ The staking exit queue has expanded, making institutional funds more fluid in and out
▫️ Testnet stable→ Q4 mainnet launched, narrative shifting from "high-fee slow chain" to "scalable settlement layer" ⚠️ — don't get carried away, risks are also rising: ETH saw a net outflow of $118 million for three consecutive days last Friday, $690 million last week. After inflows, institutions took profits. Middle East exploded over the weekend: David held secret talks on Iran, Houthi missiles hit Saudi Aramco, oil tanker attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices jumped at Monday's open, possibly reshaping inflation expectations. 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.33%, sealing the high, T-bill returns outperforming crypto carry for 157 consecutive days. Fed September meeting minutes released Wednesday, December increase$BNB promotion lifeline only pulls +0.65%: volume shrinks hitting 807.5, I am bearish down to 766.5
Binance promotion extended, fees halved. One hour passed, $BNB moved from 799.73 to 804.95.
I am directly bearish—promotion can move the headline but not the momentum.
Volume reveals first—24h volume ratio to 30-day average is only 0.739, price rises with shrinking volume, no one is taking over.
Old structural issues—daily MACD has been a death cross above zero line for 8 days, RSI 64.7 just grinding at the upper edge.
Position squeeze—long-short account ratio 2.1162, bulls piled on one side, funding rate 0.0001052 neutral, no one willing to pay premium.
BTC 86627.46 still above short-term moving average, in attack phase (breadth 52/11, fear-greed 70), be cautious of volume shrinking in a hot market hitting resistance.
Resistance above: 807.49, with the 24h high at 809.99 right overhead.
Support below: first at 793.13, break targets 766.5.
Watershed at 807.49: volume breakout above 809.99 invalidates bearish view immediately.
Clear direction, enter short near 805, stop loss at 810, target take profit at 782.87. Like and follow, will alert if breaks 766.5 or surpasses 809.99.
$BNB $BTC63 companies listed on the NYSE are going to be tokenized and traded on OKX.
Is this a big deal?
Don't get excited just yet.
OKX partnered with ICE, the parent company of the NYSE, which only in March invested with a valuation of $25 billion.
To put it plainly, this is not a small-scale experiment; it's a legitimate channel.
So what does this mean for retail investors?
Previously, if you wanted to buy US stocks, you had to open an overseas brokerage account and exchange currency, which was a huge hassle.
In the future, it might be possible to handle everything with just one account, and settlements will be on-chain.
Sounds great.
But the problem lies here.
There is a 30-day opt-out period, meaning the issuer can still back out.
Actual trading still has to wait.
What concerns me more is another issue.
The SEC's exemption this time is temporary, not formal legislation.
Policies can open a door but can also close it at any time.
Veteran investors fear these "looks like it's going to happen" moments the most.
Let's first see if the initial batch of 63 companies can run smoothly.
If it works, then we can talk about disrupting brokerages.
For now, this is just an observation window.
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 #Solana代币化股票9月交易量突破44亿美元 $ETH Bitcoin's upward logic:
Overall wide-range oscillation, after liquidity hunting near resistance at 872, it follows with a pullback.
Generally, resistance levels are not passed in one go.
The pullback falls to the Fibonacci 70%, exactly at the POC position, landing above the 12H bullish OB. Of course, it also breaks the support at 850, because support and resistance swapping is not an upward logic (usually support is meant to be broken; if not broken, it doesn't establish).
The real upward logic is that during the rise, the pullback seeks internal liquidity to retest the discounted bullish order block, then continues to rise.
When it breaks through the 872-873 resistance zone again, it is very likely to accelerate upward to 900-930. Don't short on the left side, because this time it is very likely to sweep out those short orders!This Ethereum triangle is about to close tomorrow. ⚠️ Upper boundary pressing down from 2807 → 2788 → 2778, each high lower than last. Lower boundary rising from 2626 → 2634 → 2647, each low higher than previous. These two lines will meet tomorrow, and direction will be decided not next week, but TOMORROW. Details I've been watching: Between 2630-2650, price hammered down 4-5 times this week, but each time recovered, showing support below. Around 2780, tested 3 times this week but never broke, iIt is currently "a good time to buy, but don't try to catch the bottom," more like a rebound continuation rather than a despair bottom.
BTC is currently priced around 86,500, down 31% from the 126,000 high, with Q3 just recording +43% (the best quarter since 2024). However, the Fear and Greed Index is at 63–70, stuck in the greed zone — true cycle bottoms usually occur during extreme fear (single digits). The current sentiment is overheated, not at a "bloodbath" level, indicating this wave is more of a corrective rebound after a decline, not the ultimate bottom.
Structurally, 82,900 / 80,000 / 78,000 (50-week EMA) are three support levels; breaking below 78,000 opens the 74,500 space; resistance walls are at 87,400 and 90,000 above. CryptoQuant signals shrinking spot demand and stagnating futures growth, "without new demand, the rebound is hard to sustain." The FOMC meeting on October 28 is the biggest variable.
Institutions also lack consensus: 21Shares believes we have entered a historical bottom range and advocates DCA; other research points to the true bottom around the end of 2026 at 50,000–55,000.
Conclusion: For the long term, you can use DCA to build positions in BTC/ETH gradually, don't all-in; for the short term, don't chase in the greed zone, add on dips at 82,000/80,000, reduce positions if it breaks below 78,000. Altcoin liquidity is drying up, avoid them.
This does not constitute investment advice. $BTC pulled back to 86,500, and I added another short position 👊
$BTC climbed from 84,789 to 86,994 in 24 hours, up 1.47%, with consecutive bullish candles pushing upward on the 15-minute chart—looking pretty strong. But the 86,994 level was tested twice and failed to break through, with volume shrinking each time, a classic sign of exhaustion.
On the news front, some traders are calling for a breakout above the previous high between April and August next year, but such long-term projections don’t help much for short-term trading. Right now, there’s a lot of trapped positions above 86,500; yesterday’s spike at 86,914 is still hanging there, so a rebound to this level just gives shorts a good entry.
My short from yesterday is still open, and I added another short at 86,500 today, raising my average price a bit. Stop loss is set uniformly above 87,200. I’m betting it can’t push through and will retreat to 85,000.
Are you guys daring to follow this? Or just watching me eat noodles? 🙈
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Regarding $DOGE, I want to first ask a somewhat uncomfortable question: Are we seeing a trend now, or a trend that has already been priced in prematurely?
Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts are strong, with RSI reaching 80 and 84 respectively. The strength hasn't disappeared, but the sentiment is already crowded; at this point, the real focus isn't guessing the peak, but whether the high-level support can quickly recover any pullback.
Current price is 0.0965, about 4.12% away from the 1-hour support at 0.09252, and about 1.14% from resistance at 0.0976. Looking at both distances together gives a more realistic risk picture than just focusing on a single bullish or bearish candle.
The biggest danger with $DOGE right now is equating "strong trend" directly with "safe to keep chasing."
My conclusion is currently only conditional. My observation line is clear: only by reclaiming and holding 0.0976 can the short-term initiative be considered regained; breaking below 0.09252 shifts attention to the 4-hour support at 0.09031. If pressure continues above, the 4-hour resistance at 0.09796 is just a distant reference for now, not a preset target.
This is not hindsight justification: in the next round, I will continue to verify 0.0976 and 0.09252, recording when conditions are met and reviewing when they fail.
Do you think this is normal overheating within a strong trend, or is the risk already greater than the remaining upside?
The market is volatile; the above is only market observation and does not constitute investment advice. This is from Coin Circle Bull.