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SUI surged 35% in three days: short positions liquidated $820,000, long positions $0. This is not a “public chain revival,” it’s a calculated squeeze.
From September 21 to 25, SUI rose from $0.81 to $1.12, a 35% increase in three days. Market cap surged to $4.25 billion, returning to the top 30.
But what really kept me silent staring at the screen wasn’t this bullish candle, it was the liquidation data: on Binance, Bybit, and OKX—the three major exchanges—short positions on SUI liquidated $820,000, long positions liquidated $0.
For every dollar liquidated, 100 cents came from shorts.
What you see is “SUI is finally back.” What I see is a textbook-level hunt fueled by ecosystem positives as the fuse, short-sellers’ liquidations as the fuel, and a BTC rebound as cover. Today, I won’t waste time on the technical debate about “Move language being better than EVM.” Let’s just talk about one thing: how this 35% gain happened, and who will pay the price next. $SUI $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 Speculating on knockoffs is all about catching the scent 🔥 of the project team taking action. In a bull market, the hardest part isn't following the trend and shouting after the price rises, but sensing the signal: the project team is stirring things up. The start of a market always comes from two places: market fluctuations and rising public opinion. There are two kinds of rhythms: some prices start first, and the candlestick quietly moves; news and discussions only flood the market a few days later; others are triggered simultaneously by market and public opinion, with mutual resonance, making the rally even more violent. Reviewing this round of cases, the entire process is very clear. Back then, the $ZEC pump didn't initially dominate the trending searches. First, institutional investors and early holdings in the industry share their opinions sporadically and sporadically in tweets, gradually beginning to share narratives. The market first leaves the bottom consolidation range, small bullish candles slowly rise, and many people treat it as a normal rebound. Once the narrative is polished, a group of KOLs collectively speak out, the topic spreads, and by then, ordinary retail investors are everywhere discussing ZEC. By then, most of the main rally has ended. Looking at recent waves like NEAR, ENA, and Plasma, the script is almost identical. Step one: Project teams and capital behind them start to act. Some push product iterations, others connect with institutional resources to quietly lay the groundwork for public opinion. At this stage, retail investors barely hear their voices; only a small number of investors and industry accounts are talking. Step two: The market is the first to provide answers. It no longer follows the market and drifts with the current; when the market falls, it refuses to make a move#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
Bitwise's move, can NEAR's ETF really get approved?
Bitwise just submitted NEAR's 8-A filing, NYSE Arca code NRR. This institution manages over $9 billion and more than seventy products, considered a veteran player. Will it pass? The filing is already effective, the process is moving quickly, but the final listing date is not set.
How much incremental inflow can it bring? Referencing its European NEAR ETP, the scale just passed $100 million, mainly driven by price appreciation, not new money inflow. If approved in the US, there will definitely be short-term sentiment premium, but don't expect tens of billions.
The new narrative is strong: NEAR is now not just a public chain; it is building a cross-chain transaction gateway, with Intents weekly trading volume of $1.3 billion, also working on privacy perpetuals and tokenized US stocks. Institutions buying NEAR are buying into this.
Market view: current price around 4.8, RSI nearly 80, overbought. Resistance at 5.21 is a hard wall, support at 4.14 is a short-term pullback level. Early profit-taking is happening; if funding rates turn negative, that signals a correction.
Direction: expect volatility before the ETF news is finalized, do not chase highs. #Strategy proposal to distribute daily dividends for preferred shares
Strategy has made a move again, this time targeting dividends for preferred shares.
The board approved a proposal to change the dividend payment for the four preferred shares STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD from quarterly to daily recording and next-day payment. Weekends and holidays are included, with shareholder voting scheduled for October 28. The dividend rate remains unchanged, and the company is not spending extra money; it’s just speeding up the payment frequency.
The purpose is straightforward. Preferred shares are Strategy’s core tool for financing BTC purchases. Previously, they raised funds by issuing preferred shares and then used the proceeds to accumulate coins. Changing dividends to daily settlement shortens the reinvestment waiting time, improves liquidity and price stability—in other words, it makes preferred shares easier to sell and financing smoother.
For BTC, this has two sides. The positive side is that smoother financing channels mean Strategy has more ammunition to keep buying coins, maintaining long-term buying support.
Currently, Strategy holds over 840,000 BTC, a huge volume, and its every move affects market sentiment. Whether the daily dividend proposal passes will reflect its future financing and coin accumulation rhythm. Don’t rush in thinking it’s a short-term positive; wait for the shareholder vote results on October 28. This company is currently the biggest leverage player in BTC; if it’s stable, the market is a bit more stable; if it wobbles, everyone follows suit. $BTC $ETH $SOL When watching the market on Saturday, I had a subtle feeling: the market barely moved, but sentiment was already repricing. Have you noticed that this rebound is completely different from the previous "liquid-release-style broad rally"? BTC is holding sideways near 84K, and after a 25bp rate hike, it didn't fall down—this is information in itself. The above level between 84.5K and 85K is a clear resistance zone; whether volume surges over it determines whether this wave is a correction or a fake. What I care about more is that the price hasn't fallen, but the volume hasn't clearly followed, indicating bulls are testing the waters and bears aren't rushing to sell chips. ETH jumped from 2675 to above 2700; 2650 is a short-term survival line; looking upward is 2750 first. Its current role is more like a temperature gauge of sentiment, not an engine. SOL has returned to 120, up 3%, and is chewing on psychological barriers. Once it really breaks out, 125 will become the next magnetic level. OKB is also grinding down with BTC near 120, with the previous high of 142 still hanging there, like an unfinished story. RE is quiet around 0.469, but the high beta nature hasn't changed. Once BTC stabilizes, it often catches up. This week, two key points worth pondering are two tags: rising long-term US Treasury yields and BTC ETFs seeing consecutive inflows of 2.8 billion. The former is suppressing valuations, the latter is supporting prices. The market is not trading "easing" now, but "funds willing to keep buying BTC when interest rates are unfavorable." This expectation has already been recognizedStrategy's BTC holdings have already exceeded 4% of the total supply, a figure that excites me but also makes me uneasy.
A publicly listed company continuously increasing its holdings can certainly provide stable buying pressure to the market and bring BTC onto more institutional balance sheets. However, when a single company owns about 846,000 BTC, it is no longer just a “steadfast holder” but a systemic participant that the market must seriously study. Financing pace, debt maturities, stock price premiums, and corporate governance will all indirectly affect BTC supply and demand expectations.
I do not agree with simply viewing Strategy as an unlimited ATM. The larger its scale, the more new purchases can support sentiment, but once the capital market is no longer willing to pay a high premium, adjustments will be more severe. This company is turning its corporate treasury into a quasi-sovereign BTC reserve; the story is grand enough, and the concentration risk is equally real. Faith can be strong, but risk control must not be weakened because of it.
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $BTC $XAU ） Saturday Market!!!
Around 8 AM Beijing time, there was a sudden surge in crude oil prices. The core reason is not ordinary supply and demand, but the geopolitical risk in the Middle East + the re-pricing of supply risk in the Strait of Hormuz.
In recent days, oil prices have been fluctuating violently around a core variable:
US/Iran negotiations → Whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens → Whether Middle Eastern crude oil can be transported normally.
Yesterday, the market once lowered oil prices due to the possibility of US-Iran negotiations and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; but then new military/geopolitical risks emerged, and the market again worried about disruptions to Middle Eastern supply. Previously, when the Houthi forces attacked targets related to Saudi Arabia, Brent crude briefly surged above $106.
Today, the latest news shows an important change: Iran proposed a 7-day plan hoping to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but no definite agreement has been reached yet, and reports indicate the US side does not accept Iran's proposal.
So currently, the crude oil market is actually trading:
"Peace/Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz" vs "Conflict escalation/Supply disruption"
rather than simply looking at inventories.
2. Impact on BTC: slightly bearish,
Oil ↑ → Inflation expectations ↑ → US Treasury yields ↑ → Rate cut expectations ↓ / Rate hike expectations ↑ → BTC ↓
So if oil prices continue to surge today, along with:
US 10Y Treasury yield ↑
DXY ↑
Fed rate cut expectations ↓
then BTC and gold will face obvious pressure Evening Review
Market Smart Money Data
HYPEUSDT
Current price 91.708, down -1.96%
Total trader positions 223.02M, nominal long-short ratio 215.50%. 880 traders long, 378 traders short.
Long average entry price 83.281, still overall profitable, profit ratio 54.43%; short average entry price 82.148, currently at a loss, but short profit ratio has risen to 62.43%, indicating some shorts are making short-term defensive moves.
Price has pulled back, profits on paper have been given back, funding rate remains negative, shorts pay funding fees.
BICOUSDT
Current price 0.02251, slightly down -0.31%
Total trader positions 1.65M, nominal long-short ratio 144.02%. 240 longs, 150 shorts.
Still a long-short double kill pattern, long cost 0.02431, short cost 0.02248, both sides have unrealized losses, profit ratios are low, market is choppy and grinding, no clear one-sided direction in the short term.
Personal Positions
✅ $HYPE full position 20x long
Holding 150 units, entry price 73.897, current price 91.677, unrealized profit +2667.00 USDT, return +387.88%, margin ratio 4.04%.
Intraday pullback has eaten some profits, although unrealized gains remain substantial, full position with high leverage has very low error tolerance, if the market continues to dip, profits will shrink quickly. Continue to execute phased take-profit strategy to secure most profits.
❌ $BICO full position 8x long
Holding 100,925 units, entry price 0.03495, current price 0.0224887, unrealized loss -1254.37 USDT, return -442.13%, margin ratio 4.04%.
Still a choppy downward trend, most longs are deeply trapped, rebound strength is weak. Margin space is tight, need to plan exit properly, do not hold positions indefinitely.
Summary and Trading Strategy
$HYPE long base capital remains, but price has started to pull back, high leverage should not be greedy, prioritize locking in profits.
$BICO continues to fluctuate, both longs and shorts find it hard to profit, this is a consumption-type market, holding positions will only keep tying up capital.
Both positions have low margin ratios, overall risk is high, next priority is risk control, then look for market opportunities.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 $BTC and $ETH have both been oscillating at high levels recently, with short-term momentum cooling down
📊 【Key Observation Zones and Level Projections】
🟠 BTC: $83,000-$84,000 is the key observation zone.
🔵 ETH: If $2,650-$2,680 is broken, it may test $2,580-$2,620.
💡 【Capital Flow Has Not Fully Turned Bearish】
Although prices are under pressure, capital flow has not fully turned bearish yet:
The US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $190.7M in a single day, marking the 6th consecutive trading day of net inflows; the ETH ETF had about $66.1M net inflow on the same day, marking the 5th consecutive day of inflows.
This indicates that institutional funds are still continuously accumulating through ETFs and treasury strategies, and the underlying spot chips remain tight. The current pullback is more of an internal cleansing in the high-leverage market.
🎯 Amid the tug-of-war between institutional support and macro interest rate suppression, the market is brewing a sharp directional choice. The longer the consolidation, the stronger the explosive power after volatility expands.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/26 )
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 This week's market action is textbook level. On Monday, it surged to 87,300, an 8-month high. The bears got crushed—$648 million worth of short positions liquidated in 24 hours, 86% of which were shorts. Global trading volume surged 39%. Then what? It slid down for three consecutive days to 83,000. The chat was full of "it's peaked," "time to run." But ETFs didn't run. They kept buying for 6 consecutive days, totaling $2.84 billion. Big players didn't run either. During the 96 hours from 87,400 down to 82,800, whales bought 32,069 BTC against the trend, worth $2.57 billion. Binance saw a single-day outflow of 13,800 BTC, the largest since 2023. Who's panicking? Leveraged traders. Who's buying? Long-term funds. Short-term view: 83,000–83,500 is support, 85,200–85,500 is resistance. Mid-term view: MVRV points to 96,700 as the next resistance. The key is the inflation data on September 30. Four words for operation: don't chase, don't short, wait for data. Position discipline: spare money, small amounts, no leverage.
#BitcoinTrading #BTCStrategy #MarketAnalysisNo operation, no analysis, just relying on luck, this performance is embarrassing to even say out loud. When the screen was full of green lights, $ZHIPU was still holding on hard. I glanced at the volume; the trading volume was low, and the resistance above was obvious. I just kept holding the short position. Panic comes from having no plan, losses come from overthinking.
This round of ZHIPU, I didn’t hype it up much, only said one sentence in the short position chat: bearish, don’t rush to catch the rebound. Looking back now, that sentence was quite valuable; the position and patience gave the answer.
From 117.96 to 81.43, +619.36% in hand, feeling good brothers, the wait wasn’t in vain.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% to protect the cost price. If it continues to drop, let the profit run; if it rebounds, don’t give back the profit. There’s still a chance, don’t be greedy for the last bite.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
Wait for the next signal before moving. The market is not short of opportunities, it’s patience that’s lacking. Opportunities remain, don’t rush.
$SOL $ETH It’s what happened to leverage. BTC is holding around the $84K area while a large amount of derivatives exposure has been removed from the market. That raises an interesting question: Is this weakness — or a healthier reset? Less leverage can mean fewer forced liquidations. But it can also mean traders are becoming more cautious. So I’m watching what happens next between: → Spot demand → Open interest → Liquidity → Price structure The chart tells us where BTC is. Market positioning may tell us wBTC 84000, slight rise, holding steady.
ETH 2690, no movement, playing dead.
ZEC 1500, turned green, still pretending strong.😅
ZEC is the craziest.
Almost doubled in a month,
more than doubled this year.
Privacy, ETF, BTC repositioning,
rushed to 1680 then pulled back.
1500 shaking out floating chips?
I acknowledge its heat,
but definitely won’t chase highs.
Watching 1440-1550,
1700 is still far.
Regulation can pour cold water anytime,
its swings are fiercer than BTC.
In a word:
Watch if BTC holds,
put ETH aside for now,
short ZEC directly
Don’t get itchy when it’s green.
Weekend order book is thin,
watch the structure,
don’t make life harder for yourself.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC ##BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 HYPE has a whale traffic jam near record highs.
One side: Hyperliquid Strategies bought another 494,200 HYPE ($45.8M), taking its month’s accumulation to $476M. The other: five whales started unstaking roughly $90.4M, while another $12.15M moved to institutional custody.
$HYPE is now $92.39 on OKX, just 5.8% below its ATH. Big money is moving in both directions at once.What is the real purpose of Strategy's proposal to distribute daily dividends on preferred stock? Strategy proposed a new plan for four types of preferred stock—STRF, STRC, STRK, and STRD—to generate daily dividends, including weekends and holidays, with payments made on the following business day. The plan will not increase the dividend yield or the company's overall dividend payout, and the vote will be made by ordinary shareholders on October 28.
[Core Logic]
On the surface, this is "daily dividends," but in essence, Strategy is optimizing its financing tools.
Dividends are received more frequently→ reducing reinvestment waiting times→ improving liquidity and demand for preferred stock→ helping stabilize preferred stock prices→ making it easier to continue issuing preferred shares for financing in the future→ and supporting BTC Treasury once funds are raised.
So this is not just a simple dividend benefit, but Strategy's efforts to improve the capital cycle of "preferred stock financing → buying BTC."
[Potential Risks]
The biggest issue is that increasing dividend frequency does not change the risk of preferred stocks themselves. Strategy remains highly exposed to BTC prices, and if BTC pulls back sharply, preferred stock prices and market demand may also come under pressure.
Additionally, the plan has not yet been officially implemented and requires approval by ordinary shareholders on October 28.
[Trade Conclusion]
If the vote passes, and the trading volume and price of STRC, STRF, STRK, and STRD improve significantly, it can be understood as a strengthening of Strategy's financing system, and the ability to continue issuing preferred shares to raise funds to buy BTC will improve🔥 Over the weekend, BTC hovered around 【83,800—84,100】, which easily creates an illusion: since it’s not moving much, it must be trading back and forth within the range.
📈 From a trading logic perspective, this is indeed a typical range strategy—looking for resistance at the upper boundary, support at the lower boundary, and avoiding chasing in the middle. But weekend volume is usually lower than on weekdays; the market isn’t "without volatility," it’s just thinner liquidity, so after a breakout, the move could actually accelerate.
🧩 So the real question isn’t "can you make a few trades," but whether your position can withstand a sudden one-sided move after three or four consecutive correct trades.
🚨 Especially with 【100x】 leverage. In theory, even a very small adverse price movement can quickly deplete margin, and actual liquidation is also affected by maintenance margin, fees, funding rates, and mark price.
🎯 If I want to test this strategy next week, I’ll focus on three areas: 【range edges】【breakout confirmation】【strict stop loss】. Don’t use "made a few wins before" as a reason to hold through the next trade.
💬 You can trade in a choppy market, but "choppy = low risk" is a completely different matter. How much longer do you think the 【83,800—84,100】 range can keep grinding? #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 🔥 Brothers, I suddenly thought of a strategy: BTC doesn't like to move on weekends, so can't we turn the consolidation into an opportunity?
📊 Right now BTC is grinding back and forth around [83,800—84,100]. Assuming resistance at the upper boundary and support at the lower boundary, theoretically, you can do "range high sell and low buy": watch for shorts near [84,100], watch for longs near [83,800].
⚠️ But there's a pitfall that must be made clear: the biggest risk in range arbitrage is a sudden breakout. Once BTC breaks out of the range or falls below [83,800], the original "high sell low buy" strategy can quickly turn into a one-sided holding position.
💥 Not to mention [100x] leverage. This kind of leverage is not low risk but has extremely low tolerance for errors. Weekend liquidity drops, making quick spikes more likely. Making several small profits in a row doesn't mean you can cover one big loss.
🧠 So if you really want to test it, I'd rather treat it as a "small position strategy validation" instead of going all in with [100U]. Prove the strategy works first, then talk about scaling profits.
👀 Brothers, do you think BTC is more suitable for range trading on weekends, or is this kind of market more prone to sudden breakouts? #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $SNDK 1905的空单挂好了，结果差了0.4没成交，真的有点难受。 之前1800附近到1900附近做了一笔小仓位空单，虽然一直拿着，但始终没有继续加仓。今天早上价格到1827附近的时候，直接被市场强平，最后连这波回撤都没吃到。 现在是真的有点烦，空也难受，多也难受。 最危险的是，交易上头的感觉又回来了。脑子里开始冒出“要不要直接梭哈10万人民币”的想法。 但理性会提醒我：万一亏光怎么办？ 贪心又会说：万一真的做到100万呢？ 两边都在拉扯。 还是先冷静下来吧。行情天天都有，没必要因为一笔没做好的单子，把自己重新带进情绪里。$BTC
BTC 1H is currently still in a descending channel, so I’m not guessing the bottom for now.
My trading plan:
① 82.8K–83K support
Observe first, no bottom fishing directly.
If 1H stops falling, forms a higher low, and breaks through the descending trendline, consider going long after a pullback confirmation.
② Long conditions
Enter after breakout + pullback confirmation.
Stop loss placed below the pullback structure.
First target is 88.9K–89K.
③ Breaking support
If 1H breaks 82.8K with volume and the rebound fails to recover, do not catch the falling knife.
Wait for a pullback confirmation before considering short.
I focus more on waiting for the 1H structure to give the answer rather than guessing the direction.
Trade when there’s a signal, wait when there isn’t.
What do you think?#SOL can be calculated in many ways, including a scenario where the decline has completed at the June low
This chart presents a more bearish alternative: an extended flat correction, with wave C either completed or nearing completion in the shaded resistance zone
A five-wave reversal from that area would strengthen the case for a sharp decline to a potential Q4 low. Until then, it remains just a scenario
#SolanaCutsSlotsTo350ms At first, I thought I was investing
then I realized I was gambling
later I found it seemed like a scam
and today I confirmed, it’s a donationDoing swing quant trading for so long, every 30-day review feels like reconciling with myself.
First, a report on the assets: end-of-period assets at $1049.95, a final 30-day profit of $13.37, a return rate of 1.29%, a win rate of 68.08%, a maximum drawdown of 5.01%. Now almost fully invested in USDT, just lying low—a typical swing trader’s empty position standby state.
The net value curve for this month perfectly reflects my recent mindset:
At the start of the month, there was a pullback, with unrealized losses peaking at $51.77. I was watching signals daily, fearing the drawdown would break the line; fortunately, the strategy’s win rate held up, and bit by bit the swing trades slowly filled the gap, pushing net value up to a profit peak of $45. Those two days I was a bit overconfident, feeling like I had the market fully under control.
Then came the familiar scenario: the market reversed, I didn’t take profits in time, and the gains retreated with the market, finally settling at a $13 profit.
Actually, a 68% win rate isn’t bad for a swing strategy, and controlling drawdown at 5% is considered steady. But the biggest problem is still myself—the entry logic is smooth, but the exit logic can never keep up. When I make money, I want to wait for more; when it falls, I’m lucky if it can recover, and in the end, most of the profits are given back to the market.
Next, no more messing with new entry signals, just focusing hard on taking profits: adding a trailing stop line to the strategy, scaling out in batches, and never being greedy.
Quant trading, after all, is about fighting against your own human weaknesses.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Don't be blindly optimistic about the Wave B rebound! Real trading pitfall insights: how torturous it is to hold on without stop-loss
$BTC $ETH
Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a balanced tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the market waiting for new catalysts.
My judgment: This is a short-term top followed by a Wave B rebound. After 1-2 days of consolidation, there will be another pullback to test the previous high.
But don't fantasize about an immediate new high or a bull market restart just because of a rise; the probability is low. Most likely, there will be a deep Wave C correction afterward to fully release risk, which will then attract incremental funds to push the market.
Practical approach: For long positions, wait to take profit or break even before exiting; for short positions, don't be anxious—when the rebound weakens, you can continue to add to shorts.
Let me share a frightening moment from my real trading—this $ONE move really scared me.
Yesterday morning, my account funds dropped from nearly 500 to about 100. It's not true that I wasn't scared; I even doubted my judgment. I knew clearly that if I couldn't get through this hurdle, it would be hard to continue trading; getting through it meant overcoming a major barrier.
Fortunately, I added funds to average down, bringing the account back to 200+, and the panic gradually eased.
Reviewing this big loss, the biggest problem was not cutting losses in time during the downtrend but instead continuously adding positions. I was forced to cut my previously profitable US stock positions to fill this bottomless pit.
The lesson learned: when the market feels off, decisively cut positions; never add against the trend. Cut losses decisively when needed—one cut to solve it, or several if necessary.
I want to ask everyone, I see ONE targeting 0.01—is that just a pipe dream?Altcoin market shows severe divergence! DOGE's short squeeze momentum is exhausted, FIL hides a big supply-side opportunity
🔥 Altcoins are now showing completely different trends. Let's analyze the current status of two tokens:
$DOGE current price is $0.0989. A few days ago, it briefly broke above $0.10 driven by a $12.7 million short squeeze. But a key signal: trading volume dropped 63% within two days, indicating this short squeeze buying pressure is basically exhausted.
Long-term holders are still at an average unrealized loss of about 19%, with a large amount of selling pressure from those looking to break even above, making further upward movement difficult.
$FIL current price is $1.047, stuck at the key resistance level of $1.05.
The real highlight is in October: the vesting period for Protocol Labs and the Foundation ends, causing FIL's total circulating supply to sharply decrease by 75%. Supply tightening is a clear logic, so the time window is worth waiting for.
On the macro level, high interest rates suppress the overall market, intensifying sector divergence:
$SOL, supported by ecosystem heat and institutional funds, is showing an independent trend;
DOGE surged then fell back, with the core risk being insufficient volume;
FIL's opportunity depends on the significant token supply contraction landing in October.
$BTC$BTC is up 45% since July, but mining difficulty is still below late-June levels, so competition to mine it stays low.
Miners now earn around 25% more per unit of computing power, which means less need to sell BTC to pay bills, easing sell pressure.📈 A BTC trendline drawn 13 years ago is still worth watching today
In 2013, when Bitcoin was only about $25, Bitcointalk user dacoinminster put all the BTC price data available at the time into Excel and fitted a power-law trendline.
The original model was roughly:
Price ≈ 4.42 × 10⁻¹⁷ × (days since January 3, 2009)⁵·⁶
Interestingly, this line has not been adjusted since, yet it has gone through the bull and bear cycles of 2013, 2017, 2021, and later.
The core point back then was not to predict exactly how high BTC would rise, but to suggest that the 2011 surge might have been more of a bubble, while the 2013 price movement began to show a different structure.
🔥 And now?
In September 2026, BTC again rose above $80K, recently breaking $87K before retreating to around $84K. Meanwhile, the US spot BTC ETF recorded net inflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling over $2.8B, with net inflows since September around $2.6B.
This means the market is facing two signals simultaneously:
🟢 The long-term trend is still continuing
🟢 Institutional funds are flowing back
🟡 But BTC is between $84K–$87K BTC surged then pulled back! Can the 83000 support hold?
🔥 After $BTC broke through 83000, it surged to around 87000, then entered a range-bound oscillation between 83000-87000.
After hitting the 87200 high point in the past two days, the market turned down, and yesterday the market weakened, with the price once dipping near 83000.
This range is exactly the previous breakout level and is the key support I am closely monitoring.
Recently, the US stock market and crypto market have simultaneously entered short-term oscillation. Overall, risk asset volatility has increased, but the trend has not yet deteriorated. BTC has retraced from 87000 and has not yet broken the 82000 defense line.
Fundamental news:
$BTC spot ETF has attracted funds for 6 consecutive days, with a cumulative inflow of over $2.8 billion;
Long-term US Treasury yields continue to rise, increasing market financing pressure;
Geopolitical uncertainties re-emerge, with fluctuating expectations for the Strait of Hormuz navigation.
$ETH $SOL📐 A 13-year-old Excel trendline is still following BTC today?
In February 2013, BTC was only about $25. Bitcointalk user dacoinminster input the historical prices available at the time into Excel, letting the program fit a power-law trendline.
The model obtained back then was roughly:
BTC ≈ 4.42 × 10⁻¹⁷ × (days since January 3, 2009)⁵·⁶
Interestingly, this line has never been refitted or adjusted since. Even today, many market participants still use it to observe BTC's long-term price trajectory. Historical records show that this model line gives a reference value of about $93K around September 2026, while BTC is currently around $84K.
🔥 Latest market background: • BTC briefly broke above $86K this Monday, then retreated to around $84K.
• From September 21–25, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw a total net inflow of about $2.39B, marking five consecutive trading days of inflows.
• The cumulative net inflow for September ETFs is about $2.6B, with about $999M on September 21 alone.
📊 So what’s really worth watching now is not just "whether this line is accurate," but:
Can BTC firmly reclaim $86K–$87K → challenge $90K+
If it breaks below 📌Costco vs. Micron: Two Very Different Growth Stories
Watching Costco and Micron in the same week is more interesting than focusing on a single earnings report.
Costco: Quarterly sales grew 11.2%, while adjusted comparable sales and e-commerce continued to expand. EPS reached $6.75.
The interesting part of Costco’s model is membership: consumers may complain about prices, but renewal behavior shows the value they place on trust and consistency. The product isn’t simply cheap goods—Seeing this news, I just want to say they really dare to boast. Moving the "entire stock market" onto Solana, the core pain point of tokenized stocks is not technology, but market makers and liquidity depth.
To support tens of thousands of stocks, the underlying layer needs massive liquidity pools to maintain a 1:1 peg. Without top-tier market makers providing millisecond-level arbitrage support, prices would instantly lose their peg. Does Backpack have that much capital to maintain it?
The so-called 1:1 physical redemption is definitely not a "zero-delay" connection. The flow between on-chain and brokerage accounts is still stuck in traditional settlement cycles, APIs, and regulations. Once the US stock market is closed or extreme market conditions occur, tokens lacking market maker quotes can instantly become "offline coins."
Even top liquidity giants like OKX and Binance only cautiously select a few highly liquid tokenized stocks. You, as a wallet app, shouting about 10,000 stocks is purely laughable.
Currently, there are only about 200 tokenized stocks across all chains. This is nothing more than a PPT hype catering to the RWA narrative. Without real market-making depth backed by actual capital, this is just pie in the sky. Before substantial implementation, I absolutely will not follow blindly.Today's $2Z is the standard answer to "how to identify a true breakout."
First, look at the 4H chart: from 09-21 to 09-25, it traded sideways within the 0.051–0.056 range for a full 5 days, with volume gradually shrinking; most 4H candles had base coin volumes under 1 million. This is the accumulation phase—no one wants it, and it can't move.
Then on the 26th at 12:00 (Beijing time), a 4H candle opened at 0.0576 and closed at 0.0698, breaking through the upper boundary of the range in one go. Volume jumped directly from the usual million-level to 20.5 million, about 20 times the previous day. The next 4H candle hasn't closed yet, but volume is already 24.7 million, price continues to push higher, current price 0.0761, up about 38% in 24 hours, with OKX 24h trading volume around $36 million.
True breakouts generally share three common points: ① the range has been sideways long enough with volume contracted properly; ② the breakout candle's volume is several times the previous; ③ after the breakout, price doesn't retrace but continues upward. Missing any one of these calls for caution; having all three means it's at least worth watching closely.
Another detail: the funding rate is currently -0.29%, meaning shorts pay longs. The price rose 38% but leverage isn't crowded, indicating this wave hasn't been inflated by leverage yet. Next, it's more likely shorts will cover rather than longs pushing further.
If a coin has been sideways for 5 days, would you sell on the breakout day or hold to see if it can continue moving? $2Z Long-term U.S. Treasury yields surge past 5.5%, liquidity tightening, risk assets in distress
The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has broken through 5.5%, and the 10-year yield has reached 5.14%, both hitting multi-year highs.
Federal Reserve's Harker bluntly stated that the yield surge is not due to runaway inflation but rather rising real interest rates, an unsustainable fiscal path, and competition for funds between AI and other tech investments and the bond market. Another set of data confirms tight liquidity: the Treasury's 20-30 year bond repurchase auction cooled off, with $10.468 billion in bids but only $4.078 billion accepted, indicating institutions demand very high risk premiums and are reluctant to trade.
For risk assets, the continuous rise in risk-free rates means ongoing liquidity withdrawal, putting valuation pressure on BTC and tech stocks.
So far, BTC has fallen from a high of 87,000 to around 84,000, and ETH has dropped from 2,800 to about 2,680.
The key variables going forward are when long-term yields will peak and whether the Fed will increase intervention. The strategy is mainly defensive: hold steady and avoid chasing highs.
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 9.26
BTC really had a brutal shakeout this week!!!
In the 4-hour timeframe, it oscillated between 83000 and 85000, similar to the digestion after the previous two-wave bullish impulse. Short-term bulls are starting to weaken, while bearish pressure is building up.
In a choppy market, it's easiest to get trapped. Simply put, neither bulls nor bears are certain. The 83000 level may very well be a false breakdown, then combined with news-driven reversal to push up to 85000, sweeping out the big short positions. The risk is high, which is why I took profit on my short positions.
Rather than getting worn down by being trapped in a choppy market, it's better to stay flat and wait for a market turning point. Don't try to bet on every move or the intentions of the main players, but seize opportunities when they are as certain as possible. This is the experience I've gained along the way.
Only walk the path you can see
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 🔥 A global asset market value ranking chart might be more worth seeing than a bunch of BTC news.
📈 What’s most worth paying attention to about BTC now is no longer "how much it has risen again," but its scale. According to the data in the chart, the market value is about 【$1.72 trillion】, already entering the core comparison range of large global listed companies and assets.
🧩 Over the past few decades, Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia have continuously expanded their market value through revenue, profits, and supply chains; BTC has no traditional revenue but relies on global liquidity, scarcity, and market consensus to push itself to the same level.
⚠️ Of course, a similar market value does not mean the business models are the same, nor does it mean BTC’s risks are now the same as those of tech giants. BTC’s volatility remains far higher than most traditional assets, which is precisely one reason it can quickly change rankings.
🌍 What’s truly worth thinking about is: when an asset born over a decade ago, with no headquarters or traditional cash flow, begins to reach the trillion-dollar level and consistently appears among the top global assets, the market’s definition of "what can become a core asset" is also changing.
🎯 So this ranking isn’t about who’s number one today, but about the financial world gaining an increasingly significant variable.
👀 Do you think BTC will continue to approach traditional tech giants, or is $1.72 trillion already close to its current ceiling? #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 JTO: FROM 0.6767 TO 0.3920 AND BACK
I watched $JTO crash over 40% then recover to 0.5782, up 0.81% today, now above all three VWMAs (5: 0.5215, 10: 0.4983, 20: 0.4702). Recoveries test patience more than crashes test conviction. Do you trust a bounce once price reclaims every short-term average? The recent gains of Bitcoin have been limited, making it hard to take big profits quickly.
Choosing the right entry timing is crucial: flexible price points allow for continuous short-term gains; if the price points are too strict, it's only suitable for long-term waiting.
This morning, I predicted entry at 83600 and take profit at 84400, but looking back, the conditions were too strict. The market continues to oscillate and grind, not allowing a smooth one-sided trend.
In a choppy market, learn to lower expectations, avoid rigidly waiting for high-standard price points, and adjust your pace flexibly.
$BTC #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 $BTC $ETH #CME plans to launch BCH and UNI futures
The leader has something to say
When the news that CME would launch BCH and UNI futures first came out, BCH surged over 31%, and UNI rose nearly 20%. Now that the hype has cooled down, BCH has dropped 1.75%, and UNI has fallen 0.30%. This is the usual script of rushing in before the positive news lands and profit-taking after it lands.
I believe this wave is event-driven, not a trend reversal. The basis is that the price has already fully reflected the expectation of the listing; BCH surged then pulled back, UNI went from up 20% to down 0.30%. The key going forward is whether sustained trading volume and open interest can form after the official launch on October 19. If it’s just news-driven, the rise will end quickly. If there is real capital continuously participating, that will be the actual demand.
BTC surged to 87,000 then pulled back; I missed this wave and won’t chase the highs. I will wait for a pullback to see if 84,000 to 85,000 can hold before considering light entry. The Fed just raised rates, the 5-year US Treasury yield broke 5%, and the high interest rate environment remains unchanged, so I won’t heavily bet on direction. $BTC $ETH $SOL
The above analysis is time-sensitive; stop losses must be set on positions. Good luck.Aave V4 已在 Base 上推出 Equities Hub，首批支持 AAPLc、AMZNc、GOOGLc、METAc、MSFTc、NVDAc 和 TSLAc 七种 Coinbase 代币化美股。符合条件的美国以外用户，可以将这些资产作为抵押品借出 USDC。 📊 初始参数： • 股票抵押上限：约 2,930万美元 • USDC供应上限：约 3,200万美元 • USDC借款上限：约 2,100万美元 • 不同股票抵押率约 65%–79% • 股票本身暂时不能被借出，USDC是当前唯一可借资产。 这次升级的重点，不只是“把股票搬上区块链”，而是测试一个更重要的场景：传统资产能否像加密资产一样成为链上生产性抵押品。 不过目前规模仍然有限，更像是一场风险可控的压力测试。未来能否扩大，关键还是要看 流动性、预言机价格、清算效率以及真实借贷需求，而不是单纯依靠“代币化股票”这个概念。 如果市场需求持续增长，后续可能进一步扩大资产范围，并引入更多借贷资产。 #TokenizedStocksOnAave #AAVE #DeFi #RWA #TokenizedEquities🔥"Crypto Customer Service Hotline Late Night Calls: $BTC Pretending to Sleep, $ETH Writing Manuals, $SOL Throwing Parties"
The hotline rings. The first caller is $BTC: "I'm stuck around 83,990, why no meetings?" Customer service checks the file: a slight drop in 24 hours, up over 3% in 7 days, volatility under 3%, RSI about 63 not overbought, technically "neutral to slightly strong but lazy." It continues asking, "Is the 5.18% US Treasury my boss?" Customer service says yes, macro is tight, ETFs sometimes near 1 billion in a day, sometimes drop to just over 100 million, you just need to be the steady anchor, don’t jump like others.
The second caller $ETH submits a ticket: "I'm at 2690, why does the market think I’m doing nothing?" Customer service reviews updates: Besu 26.9.0 released a security patch last night, RPC stricter, memory overflow causes direct exit, operations are more nervous than reading a health report; Glamsterdam is preparing to push to Sepolia, aiming to tighten block production/MEV/scaling. ETH replies: "I do smart contracts, staking, RWA, Layer2 all." Customer service interrupts: doing all means taking all the blame, funds come in today and leave tomorrow, don’t treat testnets as proof of salary increase.
The third caller $SOL plays DJ music out loud: 121—122, Alpenglow wants to push finality to 150 milliseconds level, on-chain DEX weekly volume is even compared to "surpassing NYSE," memes change ten times a day. Looking at this data, Circle's Arc mainnet has only been online for 10 days, and the TVL is close to $500 million, ranking first in growth speed.
Just looking at the surface, it seems impressive.
But: this is purely a false boom right after launch, without even a native token with a market cap over $50 million, the hype is about to peak.
Let's break down the data to see how hollow it really is. The TVL is as high as $494 million, but the 24-hour DEX trading volume is only $55 million.
TVL is nearly 9 times the DEX trading volume. What does this mean? It means the funds are just sitting there earning interest and farming airdrops; no one is actually trading on-chain. The funds are "dead," with no liquidity depth.
For a public chain to thrive, it must have its own "wealth creation myth."
Without a large token with a high market cap, there is no profit incentive, and outside capital won't come in to take over.
Right now, it's just a bunch of scripts and scientists competing with each other inside. Once the airdrop expectations fade or the incentive mechanism stops, this $494 million TVL will instantly drain.
For a chain that just launched and relies entirely on incentives, I definitely won't jump on the bandwagon.
I'll take a look again when its real native assets emerge or after the market's shakeout if the TVL can hold steady.
For now, this is just a half-finished product artificially inflating data.Small position trading, focusing on quick in and quick out.
This $XPL trade really made me laugh out loud. With 50x leverage and a small 200U position, shorted from 0.11719 to 0.11525 in 28 minutes, directly grabbing +78% return, earning 3.1U and running.
This is a completely different world compared to that $BTC long position that tormented me for two months recently.
Use money you can afford to lose, quick in and quick out, no love affairs with the market. Spot those few minutes of spikes, take a bite and run, never greedy. This is how trading should be! Even if this trade goes the wrong way, with 4U principal and 50x leverage, a tiny reverse move wipes it out, but it’s just a 4U loss, never waking me up in the middle of the night.
After surviving the darkest nights, my mindset has really changed a lot. No longer chasing doubling every trade, just aiming to steadily scrape some small silver from the market every day. Holding a big pile of U to earn interest, occasionally itching to play a small position, winning adds a chicken leg, losing doesn’t affect the big picture.
This trade was done beautifully, wrapping up, time to sleep! $CL
Oil prices are fluctuating at high levels. Can crude oil continue to trade amid supply risks?
Geopolitical disturbances and inventory changes are raising risk premiums. If both spot tightness and near-month spreads strengthen simultaneously, it indicates that the rise is not just sentiment-driven.
If negotiations ease, inventories increase, and prices fall below the recent range, I would revise my view to a weak consolidation.🔥 The hardest part about BTC right now is not that it's hard to understand, but that it's too easy to be tricked by fake moves.
📉 During the session, it once surged near 【85,200】, and we thought it would break through, but it was quickly pushed back to around 【84,000】. This shows that the selling pressure above hasn't disappeared, and the bulls haven't regained control yet.
🧱 But the bears haven't won either. The price repeatedly tested around 【83,000】 but never formed a valid breakdown; there are still buyers below.
🧠 So don't rush to label the market as bullish or bearish now. The only two moves worth watching are: whether it can continue to increase volume after standing above 【85,000】; and whether it can quickly recover after breaking below 【83,000】.
⚠️ Every spike and drop within this range could just be a shakeout. The riskiest move here is to change your judgment immediately based on a single candlestick.
🎯 My approach is simple: don't chase a breakout unless it goes above 【85,000】, and don't chase shorts unless it breaks below 【83,000】. Wait for the range to be truly broken before following the price.
👀 Brothers, do you think BTC will break 【85,000】 first next time, or will it test 【83,000】 first? #BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 85000 was just a slight touch by the pulse and did not effectively hold steady, so there is no need to be emotionally swayed by short-term fluctuations. The core focus next week is whether the bears will continue to ferment. Currently, the market is being harvested back and forth by bulls and bears, with high risk, so it is essential to control the pace well. 🔥 The signals BTC has given in the past two days are very clear: the large-scale structure is still intact, but the short-term has clearly entered a "digestion phase."
📊 This week, BTC's highest point reached about 【87,363】, then fell back to around 【84,000】. The real pressure now is not that there is no support below, but that every time it rebounds above 【85,000】, selling pressure tends to appear.
🧠 The capital structure is actually not as pessimistic as imagined. Recently, the US spot BTC ETF still maintains capital inflows, which means long-term allocation demand has not significantly reversed; however, the single-day ETF inflow has clearly cooled compared to previous peaks, indicating that the driving force of new buying is weakening.
🏦 Adding US Treasury yields into the picture, the logic becomes clear: yields are at a high level, suppressing risk asset valuations; BTC has just experienced a rapid rise, so short-term profit-taking naturally needs to be digested. Therefore, it looks more like a re-pricing after the rise rather than a trend reversal.
⚡ Technically, I only watch two areas: 【82,800—83,000】 is important support below, and 【85,000—85,800】 is resistance above. Holding the lower support allows for continued consolidation and recovery; a volume breakout above the upper resistance is needed to challenge previous highs again.
🛡️ Therefore, it is not suitable to frequently chase ups and downs in the middle of the range now. If there is no direction, wait; follow after a breakout; adjust after a breakdown; and don't suddenly increase your position size because of a few candlesticks.
👀 If you can only focus on one level, are you more concerned about the 【83,000 support】 or the 【85,800 breakout】 now? 9/26｜84K has been sideways for three days, only one boot of the rate hike has dropped
$BTC 84,000: No drop after the rate hike = resilience, ≠ all bad news priced in (there may be another one this year). Downside targets 83,000 / 81,000, upside target 85,200
$ETH 2,700: Only talk about 2,750 if 2,650 holds. Weak funds but strong price, direction not chosen
$SOL 119.8: ETF inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, but 80% go into interest-bearing product BSOL → can hold, not necessarily able to push up. Psychological level at 120, only look at 125 if broken
OKB 120.3: Near-term high at 126.5, above is a trapped zone, not space
RE 0.469: Market cap of 70 million, most elastic but also most fragile, only small positions
Four out of five are at the upper range of their intervals. No chasing on Saturday.
#BTC现货ETF连续6日吸金超28亿美元
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#特朗普据悉拒绝7天方案，霍尔木兹重开再生变 Sincerely advise those wanting to get into ZEC to be cautious.
If you touch it, you're likely to have bad luck. In the past half month, ZEC has been fluctuating between 1500, 1600, and 1700, stubbornly unable to break below the strong support at 1450. Short-term long or short trades are possible, but you must find the right position; absolutely do not hold long-term — the market maker's support is too strong. Despite clear bearish trends, it just can't break the support line.
Looking at the order book: current price 1532.70, 24-hour drop 0.78%, buy orders 52%, sell orders 48%, longs and shorts basically balanced. My short position at 868.79 is floating at a loss of -229.20%, margin 56.19U, liquidation at 2689. It dropped from 1601 to 1532, nearly 70 points, yet still can't break 1500.
Why is the market maker so strong?
1. Grayscale ETF is locking up coins. The ZCSH spot ETF scale is nearly 900 million USD, holding nearly 600,000 ZEC, accounting for 3.52% of circulation. Locked coins reduce circulating supply and selling pressure.
2. Shorts are too squeezed; the short squeeze is ongoing. Funding rates are deeply negative, shorts have to pay to hold, so the market maker repeatedly pushes the price up, burning shorts as fuel.
3. 14:00-15:00 is the market maker's cost zone. Every time the price drops here, huge buy orders support the bottom; if it falls below, they lose money themselves. $ZEC Aave integrates tokenized US stocks: RWA qualitative change, deep interconnection of liquidity pools
Aave V4 launches tokenized US stock collateral lending, marking the official deep binding of crypto and traditional financial liquidity pools, bringing a qualitative change to the RWA sector.
The core breakthrough is that tokenized US stocks have officially moved from "tradable" to "collateralizable."
Non-US users can collateralize US stocks to borrow USDC, which not only injects real and compliant underlying assets into DeFi but also transforms traditional stocks into native on-chain lending assets, directly bringing incremental liquidity to the crypto market.
The SEC's temporary exemption is a key catalyst; this is not only a $29 million initial pilot but also paves the way for trillions of traditional assets to go on-chain.
The conclusion is clear: RWA has entered deep waters. Going forward, just closely monitor utilization rates and the scale of more stock integrations. This is the key signal to judge whether traditional capital is truly overflowing.
#Aave支持代币化美股抵押借USDC #Trump reportedly rejects the 7-day plan, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces new changes
Trump rejected Iran's 7-day plan, and the expectation of reopening the Strait of Hormuz was pushed back again.
Iran previously said that as long as the US lifts the maritime blockade and relaxes oil sanctions, the strait would reopen within 7 days. When the news came out, Brent crude oil briefly dropped more than 4%, and the market really thought tensions would ease. But Trump immediately rejected it and is still considering resuming military operations after the midterm elections in November. Oil prices immediately rebounded, WTI rose 1.38%, Brent rose 0.93%.
The impact of this on BTC is still the same old chain. When oil prices rebound, inflation expectations won't come down, and the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases again. The probability of a rate hike in October was already above 70%, and now there is even less reason to ease. US Treasury yields remain above 5%, keeping the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing assets too high. BTC is fluctuating around 85,000, with strong resistance between 87,000 and 88,000 above, and key support at 84,000 below. As long as oil prices do not fall back, macro pressure cannot be relieved.
In terms of operations, don't bet on the negotiation results. Trump changes his mind faster than flipping a page; he rejected it today, but might negotiate again tomorrow. Wait until the situation becomes clear or oil prices establish a trend before considering action. At this point, watching more and acting less is better than acting recklessly. $BTC $ETH $SOL Yesterday I came across what seems to be Magic Eden being hacked, with 3,832 NFTs moved from hundreds of addresses.
Although the person moving them claims to be a white hat trying to rescue, I don't know what the current progress is.
But the truly scary part is this: the authorizations you granted years ago are still valid today.
I just remembered to go revoke them, took a look at the list of authorized accounts, and slowly the memories came back.
They were all projects at their peak back then, from ZORA to BTC domains, and then to Monkey Land and the like,
though now they should all be worthless.
Friendly reminder: revoking in bulk now requires a fee, so if you don't want to pay, you can slowly revoke them one by one.