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"Two groups, two directions: BTC is being scooped up, ETH is lining up to exit"
The on-chain scene is very divided today. On one side, large funds are frantically buying BTC, while on the other, ETH stakers are rushing to exit.
Santiment: In the past 10 days, wallets holding 10–10,000 BTC increased their holdings by 41,025 BTC, accounting for 67.93% of circulation, a six-week high. Strategy bought 1,665 BTC at an average price of 85,681, with total holdings of 847,666; Strive bought 1,107 BTC, holding 27,462. Small wallets barely moved. Big money is buying, retail is lying flat; such a split often appears before a market shift.
On the ETH side: On October 1, MetaMask urgently unstaked about $1.4 billion, involving 17,000 validators and 523,000 ETH. The reason: block rewards were directed to wallets related to Tornado Cash. Actually, only 0.36 ETH was lost, but panic was significant. The exit queue surged from 200,000 ETH to 700,000 ETH, and the waiting time extended from 3.5 days to nearly two weeks. Jiang Zhuoer said the queue is 850,000 ETH, 14.77 days, the highest this year.
Strategy:
BTC: Whales scooped up 40,000 BTC in 10 days, institutions added 85,000. Support at 83,000–84,000, holding this level means accumulation; breaking below 80,500 means short-lived accumulation. Resistance above at 87,000–88,000, a breakout requires volume.
ETH: MetaMask's exit is a security check, not a sell-off, but ETH will eventually flow back.#OKXNOW：The future is here, major content is being unveiled, this wave of heat is pushing CL back into the short-term spotlight. My judgment is cautious: although the theme is hot, the market has not yet given a reversal confirmation, chasing highs carries more risk than opportunity.
In 24 hours, it only dropped 0.1%, price stuck at 91.08, high at 91.34, low at 90.8, volatility is tightly suppressed; turnover of 869,000 indicates no incremental funds have entered, 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages still downward, respectively -2.55% and -6.65% from the high. The top 10 order book buy orders are 23,000 versus sell orders 30,000, buy-sell ratio 0.78, sellers dominate; funding rate 0.0000%, open interest 367,000, neither longs nor shorts willing to add positions, sentiment is cold.
In this volume-shrinking, slow decline, risk control is more important than direction. If it rebounds to 91.27, a light short position can be tried, stop loss at 91.63, target at 90.62, position no more than 5% of total funds; only if volume increases and it stabilizes above 91.71 should consider reversing to long, stop loss 91.34, target 92.15. Single trade loss must be controlled within 1%, do not hold losing positions.
——This is only a personal opinion, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading.——
$CL#OKXNOW：The future is here, major content is being unveiled
#OKXNOW：The future is here, major content is being unveiled $CL Institutional funds are diverting in the same week—BTC ETF is flowing back in, while ETH ETF is still bleeding out; don't treat them as identical twins.
Public sources (usethebitcoin/BMNR): ETH spot ETF net outflow is about $118M over three trading days counted until 10/1; during the same period, BTC ETF from 10/1 to 10/2 had a net inflow of about +$134.4M. One side is flowing back, the other is bleeding out. OKX ETH ≈ 2705 (+0.84%); additionally: Glamsterdam Sepolia testnet is expected around 10/6 (emphasizing it is not the mainnet), so don't treat it as a price catalyst for aggressive trading.
My own positioning (not a trade recommendation): ETH ① hold 2645–2660; ② if it breaks 2645, watch 2600; ③ recovery requires holding above 2775–2800. BTC comparison still watches 84.55 for support / 85.5 for continued attack. Direction of funds is more important than color.
Public sources: usethebitcoin, BMNR, OKX.
Poll: A Diversion will widen ETH's relative weakness / B If Monday's flow synchronizes back in, treat it as noise / C First see if ETH can hold 2645–2660? "After going full circle, I quit holding overnight positions"
BTC is back to 84,000, ETH back to 2,660, and after a week it feels like standing still. Yesterday I thought it would break through, but the data came out and everything changed. Woke up to a sharp drop, my position almost blew up, my mind went blank.
I used to think that as long as the direction was right, I could hold on, but later I realized that holding on just made me find excuses for myself: wait a bit longer, it will come back, add positions to average down. When opening a position, I clearly knew when I was wrong and would exit, but holding for a few days felt like I became a different person.
So I stopped fighting with my positions. If I can't hold long-term, then I won't. Switching to day trading, closing out the same day, not leaving orders to be affected by next day's emotions and surprises.
What is the hardest thing to change in trading, really? The technique or the personality?
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 The US-Iran situation is tense, and the G7 plans to release 100 million barrels of reserves, putting short-term pressure on risk assets. SNDK is sensitive to macro geopolitical factors, and I tend to lean bearish with fluctuations.
24h slightly down 0.1%, with highs and lows only at 1721.1 and 1715.7, turnover 14,000, liquidity relatively thin. 1-hour down 4.69% close to the low point, 4-hour down 9.5%, buyers 264 vs sellers 353, selling pressure dominant; funding rate 0.0000%, open interest 44,000, sentiment cautious.
Strategy: Light short position on rebound to 1723.6, stop loss at 1738.4, target 1697.2; if it falls to 1694.5 and stabilizes, consider short-term long, stop loss 1682.3, target 1712.8. Single position no more than 5%, exit immediately if broken.
——For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading.——
$SNDK#BTC spot ETF inflows resume, ETH funds continue outflows
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $SNDK The US-Iran situation remains tense, and the G7 will release up to 100 million barrels of reserves, putting pressure on risk assets. MMT is unlikely to remain unaffected. I lean towards a short-term bearish stance with risk control as a priority.
Current price is 0.1856, down 2.3% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 1.06 million. The funding rate is only 0.0050%, with open interest at 8.701 million. There is little divergence between bulls and bears but a lack of willingness to chase longs. The 1-hour decline is 4.48% from the high; although the 4-hour chart shows an increase, it is still 30.06% above the low. The order book buy/sell ratio is 0.95, with sellers slightly dominant. Resistance above is at 0.1927, support below at 0.1813.
Strategy: lightly short on a rebound to 0.1893, stop loss at 0.1946, target 0.1808; if it falls to 0.1802 and stabilizes, reverse to long, stop loss at 0.1769, target 0.1884. Position size should not exceed 20%. Exit immediately if stop loss is hit; do not hold losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$MMT #BTC spot ETF inflows resume, ETH funding continues to outflow
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $MMT The day the nine-day continuous inflow was broken, my heart skipped a beat — the next day saw a return flow, but Sunday had a liquidity vacuum, and the fake inflow was still betting on a Monday catch-up
Public flow (BMNR/The Block/CryptoTimes): 9/30 BTC spot ETF −$148.7M, sharply cutting off the previous nine consecutive inflows; 10/1 immediately reversed to +$102.7M (IBIT single day +$195.6M leading the charge); 10/2 another +$31.7M. No new data on Sunday, OKX BTC≈85123 (+0.59%), 24h low≈84550 — there is return flow, but also a vacuum.
My own stance (not a trade call): ① First hold 84.55–84.8, don’t treat the weekend bounce as a full reversal; ② If 84.55 breaks with volume → watch 83.9–84.2; ③ Only after stabilizing above 85.5 consider a second test of 87, otherwise continue sideways digestion. Position size: better small than full.
Public sources: BMNR/The Block/CryptoTimes, OKX spot.
Poll: A Return flow can hold through Monday open / B Vacuum + break of 84.55 means fake return flow / C Wait for Monday’s new flow data before deciding direction?The entry point for $ETH was poor and very passive; only the support of the major trend allowed it to escape danger.The 30-piece set of middle-class people falling back into poverty—I was involved in several of them. Although I haven't fallen back into poverty, I've suffered heavy losses. I will never make any of these mistakes again. It's impossible for a person to step into the same trap-filled grass twice.
The first was buying a house with high leverage: 30% down payment, 70% loan, followed by buying at a high price. I was only in a second-tier city but bought an expensive house at a very high price. As a result, the down payment and monthly mortgage payments have all been lost. Up to now, the loss is 2.4 million, and the monthly mortgage payments continue to cause losses.
The second was heavy investment in altcoins. From 2023 to 2025, I heavily invested in L2 new narratives like ARB, OP, STRK; Bitcoin inscription narratives like ORDI, RATS; blockchain gaming narratives like YGG, PORTAL, ACE, VOXEL; and AI meme narratives like ACT. The total loss reached over 1.5 million. The profits from Bitcoin were lost in altcoins.
The last was lending money to relatives and friends: 16,000 to relatives, 40,000 to classmates, 6,000 to friends. None have been repaid; either they ignore me or pretend not to know, responding with silence. I will never lend money to anyone again. I treated them as people, but they treated me as a sucker. Good intentions were taken advantage of.The $3.8 million stolen from the NEAR ecosystem protocol has been fully recovered, restoring confidence in cross-chain security. This is a positive sentiment factor for high Beta public chains like SOL. I tend to be slightly bullish in the short term but will avoid chasing prices excessively. Macro funds are still cautious, and SOL's independent strength requires volume support.
It rose 1.7% in 24 hours to 121.19, with an intraday high of 121.29 and a low around 119. Trading volume was relatively light at 3.031 million, and the funding rate of 0.01% indicates mild and non-crowded long positions. Open interest stands at 3.028 million coin-margined contracts, showing no signs of overheating. The top 10 order book shows 9,388 bids versus 9,175 asks, with buyers slightly dominant; both 1-hour and 4-hour charts are trending upward, and the 4-hour chart is 19.3% above its low. A short-term pullback that does not break 119.6 is still considered healthy.
In terms of trading, place long orders on a pullback to 120.35, with a stop loss at 118.65 and a target of 123.85. If volume breaks above 121.85, consider light long positions with a stop loss at 120.15 and a target of 124.6. Single position size should not exceed 20%, and exit immediately if the price breaks the position level without resistance.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SOL #NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回
#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回 $SOL On October 4, Ansem posted that the market has not yet priced in the possibility of Pump.fun becoming the underlying infrastructure for other launch platforms, and pointed out that the creator's share and platform revenue are close to a 1:1 ratio. Breaking it down, the logic of $PUMP is a dual-layer commission: charging both the connected launchpads and the tokens issued on them; the platform's cumulative revenue has exceeded $1 billion, with half of the designated income used for buyback and burn. The overlooked downside: as of September 29, the group's seven-day revenue was about $16.1 million, still dependent on meme issuance popularity; in early July, its launchpad revenue share once dropped to about 27%, only returning to 62% in the past two weeks, indicating the moat is not solid; competitors may also be unwilling to entrust their underlying infrastructure to rivals. If the share remains stable above 60% going forward, this narrative will have data support. The above is a personal opinion record and does not constitute any investment advice. #BTC现货ETF重回流入, ETH资金持续流出
$BTC This pullback, I see three signals ⬇️
1️⃣ The 4H level structure is intact, the retracement looks more like a shakeout of chips
2️⃣ Funding rates are not crazy, indicating leverage is not overheated
3️⃣ Altcoin rotation is speeding up, funds are looking for the next narrative
My approach:
No chasing the rebound
Add some spot at key support
Only trade contracts on confirmed pullbacks, not as a prophet
$ETH $ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 Three days of ETF outflows after a sharp retreat do not erase the larger picture: cumulative net inflows and asset base remained positive as of Oct 2.
The more useful signal is whether selling persists once NU7 reaches testnet. Faster target blocks could shift the network narrative, but mainnet timing is still unresolved.
#ZECETF3DayOutflows The new US federal fiscal year budget has not been passed, causing a halt in regulatory funding and pausing crypto ETF approvals: new spot ETFs no longer receive comment letters, and registration statements are temporarily ineffective, with both approval pathways stalled. As of October, there are over 90 pending applications. Note that this is a delay, not a rejection; licenses have not been revoked, only the timeline has become uncertain. Existing listed spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to trade and redeem without impact. Don't rush to fully open the floodgates yet; wait until funding is restored. $BTCEveryone asks:
“Where is Bitcoin going?”
I think there's a better question.
What would have to happen for your current view to become wrong?
That's how I prefer to approach markets.
Have a thesis.
But also have an invalidation point.Big money is a friend of time
True big opportunities are often not tenfold overnight. They are more like a slowly rising curve, gradually realizing compound interest amid doubt, volatility, and waiting.
Facebook took nine years to achieve tenfold growth, Google also nine years, Nvidia about seven years, Salesforce ten years. They didn’t hit daily limit-ups but let time amplify returns over long years.
Bitcoin may be replicating this path. In January 2024, the spot ETF was approved, which means not just another investment tool but formal acceptance by Wall Street, equivalent to completing an "institutional IPO." The price was about $40,000 to $45,000 then. If this moment is regarded as Bitcoin’s institutional listing price, then a tenfold space corresponds to $400,000 to $450,000. From that time until now, it’s only been a little over two years. According to historical pace, within seven years—or even sooner—this target is not out of reach.
Of course, no one can predict the exact end point. But the way big opportunities realize is always similar: they reward patience and punish impatience. Buying today and doubling tomorrow is a gambler’s illusion; choosing the right direction and holding time is the source of big money. The story of $BTC may still be in its early chapters.Weekly-level clean flag breakout — textbook continuation pattern.
After the breakout, $BTC holds $83,500 as support. This is your first confirmation. When the price reclaims the structure and solidifies it as a floor, the pattern is in play.
Next resistance: $95,000. Here you watch for either a clean breakout push or a pullback followed by a retest of support. If $83.5k holds during the pullback, the trade setup remains valid.
The invalidation rule is simple: a decisive break and loss of $83.5k means the breakout has failed. Until then, the structure implies an upward move.
Longer-term targets (using Fibonacci extensions):
• $102k (1.618)
• $155k (2.618)
These are measured targets from the base of the flag pattern. Not predictions — if momentum continues, the math only indicates possible target zones. $ETH
This is how you interpret breakouts: confirm key levels, mark the next resistance, and know where it will fail. No guessing. Just follow the structure. $SOL BITCOIN AT $157K? 👀
The Power Law model places BTC's +100 oscillator level at $157.8K.
That's 86% above $84.7K, based on October 3 data.Tesla's Q3 deliveries exceeded expectations, igniting risk appetite, but ETH only rose 0.9%, indicating that funds have not truly flowed back into the crypto space. I judge the short term to be more volatile, with bulls lacking incremental strength.
Market signals are bearish: the 24h high is only 2706.99, trading volume is 6.166 million, and the funding rate of 0.0019% shows weak willingness of bulls to pay; open interest of 597,000 coin-margined contracts shows no increase. The order book's top 10 levels show 301 buy orders versus 4137 sell orders, a buy-sell ratio of 0.07, with sell-side depth suppressing price. Although the 4-hour chart is rising, the 1-hour chart has turned down, indicating weakening rebound momentum.
Strategy-wise, lightly short near 2708.35 with stop loss at 2732.65 and target at 2672.4; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 2668.5, consider a short-term long with stop loss at 2645.2 and target at 2698.7. Keep position size within 20%, with strict stop loss.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$ETH#特斯拉Q3交付超预期，股价一度涨约5%
#特斯拉Q3交付超预期，股价一度涨约5% $ETH Tesla's Q3 deliveries exceeded expectations, boosting risk appetite, but SLX did not follow the rally; instead, it consolidated weakly around 0.06214. I judge that the short-term trend is still dominated by bears, with insufficient rebound momentum.
On the four-hour chart, the price has fallen 17.26% from the high of 0.07509, with only 2.9% room left to the low; it dropped 1.4% in 24 hours, reaching a low of 0.06176. The trading volume was only 1.612 million, indicating shrinking volume and easing selling pressure. The order book buy/sell ratio is 1.32, with buy orders slightly dominant at 11,000, but the funding rate of 0.0050% is relatively neutral. The open interest of 30.003 million coins has not significantly decreased, showing bulls and bears are still contesting at a key level.
Strategically, if the price pulls back to 0.06182 and stabilizes, a light long position can be tried with a stop loss at 0.06087 and a target of 0.06435. If it breaks the previous low with volume, reverse to short, enter at 0.06155, stop loss at 0.06268, target 0.05941. Position size should be controlled within 20%, and stop loss must be executed if the position breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SLX#特斯拉Q3交付超预期，股价一度涨约5%
#特斯拉Q3交付超预期，股价一度涨约5% $SLX [Russia Issues Digital Ruble, The Real Gateway Has Just Opened]
Some employees of the Russian Ministry of Finance have received their salaries in digital rubles for the first time. This may seem minor, but the signal is actually significant. When a country's finance department starts directly paying salaries with central bank digital currency, it means digital finance is moving from the testing phase into the real economy.
What’s even more noteworthy is that the digital ruble entered large-scale use in September. Salaries are just the first step; it can later extend to government procurement, fiscal allocations, corporate payments, and even cross-border settlements. Once national-level funds are fully digitized, efficiency, traceability, and programmable payments will be redefined.
This may not immediately create buying pressure for $BTC, $ETH, or any specific token, but it is a solid directional confirmation for the entire digital asset industry. Previously, discussions focused on whether "digital currencies can enter mainstream finance," but now it’s shifting to "how national financial systems will be digitized."
What Russia is truly trading on with this move may not be the digital ruble itself, but an increasingly clear trend: digital finance is moving from the periphery into national-level infrastructure."Geopolitical Black Swan Strikes, Bitcoin Surges Then Pulls Back"
US nonfarm payroll data fell significantly short of expectations, briefly boosting the crypto market. Bitcoin intraday once climbed to $87,219, marking the first time since September 23 that it surpassed the $87,000 level. However, the optimism did not last, as Iran's military action in the Strait of Hormuz quickly drove up safe-haven demand, causing BTC to plunge sharply from its high and retreat to the $84,000–$84,600 range. The 24-hour decline was about 1.5%–1.6%, with a pullback of approximately 3.4% from the daily high, and daily market cap volatility reached as high as $50 billion.
Market sentiment turned cautious accordingly, with macro easing expectations and geopolitical conflict risks fiercely hedging each other, significantly widening the divergence between bulls and bears. The leveraged market also came under pressure; in the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $328 million, including $254 million in short liquidations, indicating that shorts were passively exiting during the short-term rebound, but bulls have not yet gained sustained control.
Funding still provides support. Preliminary ETF data on Friday showed a net inflow of $29.28 million, covering $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC, indicating that some allocation funds are still buying on dips. However, before the geopolitical situation clarifies, the slight ETF inflows may not fully offset the safe-haven selling pressure. Overall, Bitcoin has entered a period of high short-term volatility sensitivity, with selling pressure above $87,000 and support near $84,000 becoming key observation points.
#美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #SEC new regulations on crypto asset custody, intending to relax institutional self-custody restrictions# This news directly lowers the compliance threshold for institutions holding BTC, moderately bullish in the mid-term, but short-term market shows divergence. Both the four-hour and one-hour charts are upward but still some distance from the highs, with the uptrend slowing. Current price 85077.9, 24h up only 0.6%, the high at 85087.3 is almost at the current price, low at 84504, turnover 1.893 million, volume is thin. Order book top ten levels: buy 859 vs sell 478, buy/sell ratio 1.80, buyers dominate; funding rate 0.0014% is neutral, open interest 29,000 coin-margined contracts, sentiment mild and not overheated. Short-term can place long at 84865, stop loss 84320, target 85640; if price surges to 85780 and is resisted, can lightly short, stop loss 86210, target 84930. Single position no more than 5%, exit immediately on break, do not hold losing positions.
——Personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading.——
$BTC#SEC new regulations on crypto asset custody, intending to relax institutional self-custody restrictions
#SEC new regulations on crypto asset custody, intending to relax institutional self-custody restrictions $BTC The SEC plans to relax restrictions on institutional self-custody, with expectations of increased compliant capital inflow, which is sentimentally positive for highly volatile assets like $WLD, but I do not chase highs and only follow discipline to wait for the right position. Both the four-hour and one-hour charts are trending upward; the current price of 0.591 has only retraced a little over two points from the high, with a trading volume of 349 million, a slightly positive funding rate, and open interest of 27 million coins, indicating a slightly crowded long position. The buy-sell ratio of the top ten levels is 0.96, with sellers slightly dominant. The resistance above is at 0.6188, and the key support below is at 0.5536. My approach: place a long order on a pullback to 0.5735, stop loss at 0.5585, target at 0.6125; if volume breaks above 0.6188, lightly chase with a stop loss at 0.5995. Single trade risk is controlled within 1% of total capital, no holding losing positions.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$WLD#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $WLD This market really is driving people crazy, it's so boring I’m almost falling asleep!
$BTC is currently stubbornly holding around 84,500, repeatedly fluctuating between 85,000 and 86,000. The resistance at 86,500 is impossible to break through, and the solid lifeline is at 81,800. $ETH is also playing dead around 2,680, with the resistance at 2,750 like an iron ceiling. Looking at $SOL, it’s hovering near 118; if the support at 116 breaks, the situation will be too grim to watch.
On the news front, although the US non-farm payroll data was a bit disappointing, the ETF side has surprisingly started profit-taking and capital outflows! The market manipulators are taking advantage of the macro sentiment vacuum to aggressively shake out positions, short-term pressure is huge, and both bulls and bears are holding back their big moves. Article analyzes Big Brother Maji's position, characterizing it as a gamble:
1. Position status: total position of 147 million, available margin is 0, all long positions, up to 40x leverage, total floating loss of 26.92 million, short-term slight recovery of 1.53 million; heavy positions in ETH, BTC, combined with trending coins, betting on a market rise.
2. Lessons to learn: only choose mainstream trending assets; stable trading direction, no frequent chasing of highs or panic selling; maintain mindset after losses, avoid emotional trading.
3. Major risks (not to imitate): high leverage full position, almost no buffer funds, very easy to be liquidated if the market falls; no stop loss set, losses continue to expand but still hold on stubbornly, which is gambling-style trading.Hyperliquid's way of making money has changed. On October 3rd, its AQAv2 treasury wallet completed the first payment of approximately $14.58 million in reserve income, sourced not from transaction fees but from interest generated by the platform's USDC reserves over 30 days. The initial period covered 30 reserve balance readings from August 26 to September 24, implying an average interest rate of about 3.14%.
According to the AQAv2 mechanism, reserve income is settled every 30 days and paid to the Assistance Fund for purchasing HYPE. The protocol has added a new revenue stream beyond transaction fees, connecting reserve scale on one end and token buybacks on the other: the larger the reserves, the more bullets flow to the buy side.
The fundamental base provides confidence. From January to September 2026, Hyperliquid's perpetual contract trading volume was about $2 trillion, with protocol fee income around $493.3 million. The addition of reserve interest transforms the income structure from a single engine to a dual engine. For $HYPE, the 30-day settlement acts like a metronome, converting the platform's accumulated funds into buy pressure for the token. This predictable buyback rhythm is exactly why the market is willing to give the protocol a second look when valuing it.Last night, the analysts collectively "opened their mouths".
The bullish calls were deafening:
Chasing longs? Go for it!
$ETH chased long at 2750, stop loss at 30 points, but the stop loss was as thin as paper, bulls directly blew up 300 million, crazy.
$BTC chased above 86000, then immediately pulled back by several thousand points.
Chasing highs turned into "mourning".
Closed ETH at 2679, bought ZEC at 1319, still floating at a loss.
Bull market?
The bulls might have been scared away by the analysts' mouths.
Fortunately, $ARB finally touched 0.2.
Opened a position at 0.1925, originally planned to exit at 0.2025, almost couldn't resist adding more.
Although not much profit, at least no liquidation—this round counts as a win.
Analysts: all bullish talk.
Market: the cuts are really fast.
Just venting, don't get too hyped.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $ARB
#US September nonfarm payrolls only increased by 29,000 #Unemployment rate rose to 4.2% #US-Iran situation #Crypto market What metadata does private API payment still expose?
After the payment identity is hidden, many people assume that usage behavior also disappears. In reality, this is not the case: API providers can still see the request content, gateways may see connection times, stable IPs form long-term markers, and the rhythm of consecutive requests can become a fingerprint. If users repeatedly submit the same project files, personal experiences, or unique writing styles, different sessions—even with different payment proofs—may be re-associated by content.
This is not a failure of zkAPI, but rather that privacy systems must be handled in layers. Zero-knowledge proofs on Ethereum solve payment qualification and balance double-spending; network anonymity requires separate handling of IPs and routing; content confidentiality depends on local models, trusted execution environments, or end-to-end design. Mixing these three layers into a single "privacy" label most easily causes a false sense of security and leads users to unknowingly leak more information.
Judgment of $ETH's value should also be restrained. A mainnet application proving that Ethereum can support private billing does not mean it has already generated huge fees or demand. What is more worth watching next are actual call volumes, whether treasury funds can be freely withdrawn, whether service providers are willing to integrate, and whether users understand the remaining leakage surface. Honestly showing boundaries is actually closer to sustainable adoption than claiming complete anonymity.According to Bloomberg, Anthropic may start its IPO marketing as early as the week of November 9, aiming to go public before Thanksgiving. The schedule may still change, but rather than focusing on the exact day of the bell ringing, I am more interested in the issuance structure.
In an IPO, the company issues new shares to raise funds, while existing shareholders sell their shares—these are two different capital flows. The former increases the company's funds, while the latter mainly allows selling shareholders to obtain cash. News reports often lump them into one huge transaction amount, which can easily mislead readers into thinking all the money can be used to purchase computing power.
This does not mean there is anything wrong with existing shareholders cashing out. After years of investment, going public provides an exit opportunity, which is normal. But if we are discussing whether Anthropic can continue to support R&D and operations, we need to know how much the company ultimately receives, rather than just focusing on the total valuation and issuance size.
I am quite looking forward to Claude entering the public market, and I understand users want to participate in products they like. But when buying stocks, the issuance price, dilution, and shareholder rights must all be considered together. The product's usability cannot answer these terms.
Once the full issuance documents and final plan are clear, I will first look at how much is new shares versus existing shares, then examine the use of the raised funds. The bell-ringing day is certainly lively, but after the excitement, the amount of available funds in the company's account will affect what it can do next.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
$BTC $ETH $DOGE
The core of Bassett's statement this time is "firefighting," attempting to characterize the surge in U.S. Treasury yields as a global phenomenon rather than a U.S. crisis, aiming to soothe market sentiment. The impact of this background on the crypto space is bidirectional and complex, with both short-term suppression and embedded medium- to long-term bullish logic.
In the short term, high yields directly act as a suppressor. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield once touched above 5.3%, the highest since 2002, which raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. When risk-free Treasuries can offer over 5% returns, some funds tend to withdraw from high-risk crypto assets. After Bitcoin surged to $85,500 recently and then retreated, analysts pointed out that the elevated Treasury yields limited the upside.
However, the medium- to long-term logic may reverse. The key lies in the "reason" for the yield increase: if it stems from the Fed's active tightening, it is bearish for crypto; if it arises from market concerns about U.S. fiscal deficits and debt sustainability (i.e., rising "term premium"), it could turn bullish. Because fiscal deterioration strengthens the "currency debasement trade" narrative, prompting funds to seek Bitcoin as a hedge. Fundstrat analysts even believe that bond market pressure may force policymakers to intervene, and such intervention is essentially a form of "financial repression," which will ultimately drive Bitcoin past $100,000.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Currently, PONS is clearly in a weak downward structure overall. The price has continuously fallen from above $0.60 in the earlier period and is now around $0.40–$0.42. It has retraced more than 50% from the historical high of approximately $0.968 at the beginning of September. Short-term bearish forces still dominate. From a technical perspective, $0.40 is the most critical psychological support level at present, and the price has tested this level multiple times recently. If $0.40 can hold effectively and there is an increase in trading volume with a rapid price rebound to $0.43–$0.45, there is a chance for an oversold rebound. Further attention should be paid to the resistance area of $0.48–$0.50; only by stabilizing above $0.50 can the short-term structure be considered to have clearly recovered. Conversely, if $0.40 is broken with high volume, it means market support is further lost, and the price may continue to seek a new bottom. It is not advisable to assume a bottom has been reached simply because of the large previous decline.
The capital side also deserves attention. Currently, the open interest of PONS perpetual contracts remains at a relatively high level, and while the price continues to fall, the open interest is increasing, forming a "price decline + open interest increase" structure. This indicates that bearish funds are still entering the market, but it also means that once a rapid rebound occurs in the future, a short squeeze may happen. $PONS First look at the support, then talk about the reversal
$BICO is the most positive among the three. The price rose from about 0.0212 in the early morning to 0.0223 in the afternoon, an increase of about 5%, indicating that the low position is not without buyers. In the short term, 0.022 can be used as an observation line: if the price does not break below this support, the recovery may continue; if it only bounces briefly and then falls below, it is too early to talk about a reversal. The trend has been weak in the past week, so expectations should not be raised too quickly. First, see how much of this rebound can hold.
$SUI still requires patience. The midday low of 1.146 is below last night’s 1.185, indicating that the previous rebound did not hold. If the price moves up later, the first test is whether it can recover last night’s level; if it approaches but then falls back, it is not advisable to expect a new upward move immediately. A large monthly increase does not mean the short-term correction will end quickly.
$LINK returned to around 14, down about 3.5% in 24 hours, with cautious sentiment. 14 is a round number, and a few points above or below are not enough to determine direction. More importantly, whether the rebound can return to around 14.2 last night and continue upward; if even this recovery is difficult, it is better to wait and see. Before the market confirms, there is no need to prematurely anticipate an increase.
Overall, all three are in the stage of "first verifying support, then judging recovery." BICO is slightly stronger but not reversed; SUI and LINK still need to observe key levels. Avoid guessing direction; focus more on whether the price can hold the positions it should.最脆弱的一环不是价格，是ETF资金的分歧已经开始说话了。 你看到的是轮动，还是风险偏好正在悄悄换轨？ 这两天翻ETF数据的时候，有一种很微妙的感觉。BTC的ETF还在净流入，ETH那边却连续出现流出，SOL相关产品的动能也明显降温。价格表面看起来还算稳，但资金内部已经不太同步了。 先说事实。现货BTC ETF依旧保持吸金状态，这说明大资金对BTC的配置需求没有断。ETH ETF则面对赎回压力，SOL ETF的势头也在放缓。三个主流标的，三种温度。 为什么这件事重要。ETF流向不是价格本身，但它反映的是传统资金在选谁、弃谁。当BTC持续被买、ETH被减、SOL降温，市场交易的其实不是"加密要不要买"，而是"买哪个加密"。这是一种内部优先级重排。 偏多的路径在于：只要BTC ETF不转负，大盘的情绪底就还在。资金从ETH和SOL撤出，未必离开加密，可能只是回到BTC这个更稳的锚。山寨季会推迟，但不会凭空消失。 风险在于：如果ETH的流出继续扩大，它作为第二大资产的信心会被削弱。ETH走弱往往拖累整个山寨板块的风险偏好，因为很多叙事都挂在ETH生态上。SOL动能冷却也意味着高beta标的的追$BTC NOW STANDS ABOVE MOST COUNTRIES BY GDP SIZE
Only 15 countries have a GDP higher than the current market capitalization of Bitcoin ₿
The market value of Bitcoin is currently larger than the GDP of most countries worldwide Long vs Short Debate: $BTC at 84936, bulls say the trend is slightly bullish + support at 84737 is solid, breaking through 85000 targets 86000; bears say 85000 is heavy resistance, multiple failures to break will lead to a pullback. I've lost 200,000 U trying to recover, both sides make sense. My choice: no preset stance, let the market tell me. If it holds above 85000, go long with 5000 U, stop loss at 84737; if it breaks below 84737, go short. Never hold a position without a stop loss. Debates are useless, executing the plan is what matters. Are you on the bulls or bears? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Rather than asking "how many more times can this bull market rise," I prefer to look at this kind of real cash buying. Benson mentioned that Binance's spot market once saw consecutive market buy orders, supporting BTC above $84,000.
But having buyers between $83,000 and $84,000 doesn't mean this is an unbreakable bottom.
What I care more about is: after the buying support, can it actually push the price up?
If a drop is quickly bought back and the subsequent rebounds get stronger, I would be more confident. Conversely, if every time there are buyers but each rebound is lower than the last, then we need to be cautious: is the buying only enough to temporarily hold the price, but insufficient to absorb ongoing selling pressure?
This is not to deny the support, but we cannot directly translate "temporarily not falling" into "about to surge."
Also, don't rush to open high leverage just because you see others buying spot. Just because others are willing to buy doesn't mean they agree to hold your liquidation line for you. 😂
Do you think this range is slowly forming a bottom, or are buyers and sellers temporarily deadlocked? #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 🔥 $PUMP rose 20%, I originally wanted to short, but one piece of data made me hold back.
$PUMP's surge this time is indeed fierce, the short-term has clearly entered a high-level range, and technical indicators are also leaning towards overbought.
Honestly, my first reaction was: with such a rally, why not short?
But after reviewing several key data points, I still didn't act.
🟠 First, buybacks are still ongoing.
Pump.fun currently uses about 50% of protocol revenue for buybacks and burning of $PUMP, with continuous daily buyback and burn actions recently. Although the price has risen quickly at this level, there is still some capital support.
🟠 Second, the bulls have already gone through a round of cleansing.
After the non-farm payrolls, the rapid drop wiped out a large number of leveraged longs, releasing some short-term bullish fuel.
🟠 Third, the most critical: shorts are becoming crowded.
When market sentiment quickly shifts from "chasing longs" to "everyone wants to short," you need to be cautious of a short squeeze.
So my choice is simple:
No shorting now.
I’m only waiting for two signals:
1️⃣ $PUMP breaks below 0.0060, confirming support failure;
2️⃣ Funding rates turn positive again, longs become crowded again, then consider looking for shorting opportunities.
Shorting directly at this level is essentially betting on a second wave of decline.
I’d rather miss out than short just for the sake of shorting.
$ETH $PUMP $BTCWhy doesn't Dogecoin always follow the overall market? The answer lies in its DNA.
The prices of most crypto assets are jointly determined by capital, computing power, and institutional holdings, causing their trends to converge. Dogecoin is different; its pricing anchor is "people." A single tweet from Musk, a spontaneous tipping event in the community, or a collective meme trend on social platforms can rewrite its candlestick chart within hours. While mainstream capital calculates macro interest rates and liquidity, Dogecoin holders are refreshing their phones for news—two sets of logic naturally often produce two different curves.
Its chip structure is also unique. A large amount of coins are concentrated in the hands of early players and a few whales, with a small daily circulating supply. When the market rises, institutional capital prioritizes assets with good liquidity, and Dogecoin, due to limited depth, may not receive much incremental inflow; but once community sentiment is ignited, this small circulating supply cannot support the concentrated buying, and its gains often surpass the overall market. Following declines but not rises, long sideways movement suddenly breaking out—these are all shadows of this mechanism.
Another easily overlooked point: Dogecoin has no total supply cap, with a fixed annual issuance of about five billion coins. In the long term, inflationary pressure suppresses its valuation baseline, making it naturally insensitive to rallies driven by "scarcity narratives." When the market rises on halving and tightening expectations, it often remains stagnant.
So when watching $DOGE, focusing on the overall market index is not very meaningful. What really matters is its community activity, celebrities' offhand remarks, and large on-chain transfers. This is a coin priced by sentiment; its market chart doesn't show numbers, it shows human hearts.$CT Watching the market obsessively gets annoying; turning it off actually makes things clearer, and my mind stays calm without staring at the screen.
During the bottom consolidation, CT support didn't break, and buying pressure strengthened. I'll just say this: there's someone buying below, so don't rush to go up.
Bought at 0.3767 and sold at 0.4879, a floating profit of +590.39%. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly rewarding.
First, take profits on 70%, keep 30% at cost price as protection, let the profits run if it continues to rise, and don't panic on a pullback.
Being out of the market isn't a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake. Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up bleeding. For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, and watch for a new structure.
$BNB $ADA Order Book Strength Ranking
5-minute median slippage, estimated based on order book, excluding fees
$RESOLV buy slippage increases significantly with order size: slippage for buy orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT is 0.18% and 4.67%, respectively. Large order slippage is about 4.49 percentage points higher.
$ATH buy slippage increases significantly with order size: slippage for buy orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT is 0.23% and 0.65%, respectively. Large order slippage is about 0.42 percentage points higher.
$ZRO buy slippage increases significantly with order size: slippage for buy orders equivalent to 10,000 and 100,000 USDT is 0.08% and 0.53%, respectively. Large order slippage is about 0.45 percentage points higher.$ETH ETH this month (October) don't expect it to surge straight up; most likely it will be a frustrating oscillation of "repeatedly testing against a hard ceiling, surging when good news comes, then falling back if it can't break through," with the real directional choice coming at the end of the month. Currently around $2,690, it has quietly risen 12% over the past month but is stuck at the most uncomfortable position.
First, let's talk about the wall overhead. The $2,750–2,800 range is a heavy resistance zone that has repeatedly pushed it back, with retail profit-taking and trapped positions all piled up here. Recent on-chain data is also cautious: the amount of ETH on exchanges increased by 125,000 coins (holders are lining up to sell), $220 million in profits were realized in a single day last Friday, and ETF daily net inflows have dropped sharply from $270 million a week ago to $17 million. This indicates short-term buying power is resting, and the probability of breaking through $2,800 forcefully is low.
But there are three solid catalysts this month. On October 6, the Glamsterdam upgrade will launch on the Sepolia testnet, aiming to test a 200 million Gas limit (equivalent to increasing mainnet throughput several times); on October 7, the issue of 520,000 ETH exiting validators from MetaMask-Lido needs to be resolved, which will mark the end of negative news; plus Citibank just raised its 12-month target from $2,240 to $3,028, and ETF cumulative net inflows have nearly reached $14 billion. $ZEC continues to short! The price has already fallen back, but the big money hasn't stopped and is still continuously adding to short positions.
Looking at smart money data, the number of short sellers decreased by 75, but the amount of short positions actually increased by more than 22 million U against the trend. The original short positions' floating profits should have shrunk with the price drop, but the data instead rose, indicating real money is increasing short positions.
The average short price has reached 1299, almost close to the current price. Although 77% of the shorts are in profit, the overall ledger shows a slight loss of 410,000, indicating that the newly added heavy short positions were opened at the current price level.
Retail investors often hesitate to short after a big drop, but big money continues to bet heavily with the trend. The main force dares to increase short positions at this level, so follow the idea and keep holding the short positions.
⚠️This is only a personal market observation and does not constitute investment advice #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Chili 🌶️ rice noodles, getting more and more exciting $ZEC you're at it again
Just shorting, some shorted at 900, held on until 1380 then fell
Some also shorted at 1650, held through volatility until 1700
Actually, it's not about choosing long or short direction
But about position management
A gambler's mindset, even if right 10 times, one mistake can be disastrous
I was wiped out and back to zero
Suddenly realized I lost all my u
Shorted $ETH for two months, still huge losses
Is this really a bull market? I can't convince myself
😭😭
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
The Fed has raised rates more than once
Why doesn't the market cool down, I don't get it
Rate hikes every few years are bad news for crypto
Shorts, are you still holding on $BTC weekend pump and monday pivot is currently playing out… if we can clear $85,000 then $87,000 becomes extremely likely.
pump towards monday / tuesday latest and then reverse and retest support which i dont think it will hold and go to $79,000.
time shall tell, position accordingly.#FedECBMeetingMinutes $AXS Damn it! The K-line of AXS looks like a ghost drawing, hovering around 1.4165 for a long time, with volume quietly building up. Purely technical, no news at all. The sneakier it is, the more it shows that the big players are making moves behind the scenes. The shakeout is making retail investors scream, but smart money is quietly accumulating. I'm planning to lay an ambush around 1.4165; if it breaks below 1.38, I'll admit defeat and leave. On the upside, I'll first see if it can break through 1.55. Don't chase the highs, follow the rhythm. For those wanting to get in, check the market card below for details, control your position size, and always set stop-losses. This is my personal review and not investment advice.
👇👇👇📈 Bitcoin’s relative strength is back.
In June, $BTC outperformed the S&P 500 on just 1 in 5 trading days — its weakest stretch in six years. Now, Bitcoin’s win rate has climbed back above 50% while stocks remain relatively flat.
👉 This suggests a renewed, more Bitcoin-specific demand rather than simply broader risk-on momentum.This weekend, I only made one trade. Last week's non-farm payroll market, Bitcoin still hasn't broken the high point, so it's still a difficult mode market.
Meanwhile, ETF funds are still overall in a net inflow state, so I no longer dare to short Bitcoin.
Therefore, I shorted other targets whose patterns better fit a bearish structure, one is SHIB, and the others are ASTER and DOGE.
The main reasons for not shorting Bitcoin are as follows: 1. Bitcoin's ETF funds show net inflow, and last week there was only one day of net outflow. No news is more important than funds. News only affects temporarily; funds affect the underlying logic. 2. Shorting the above two altcoins mainly because recently altcoins have been performing poorly, while Bitcoin is relatively strong. If Bitcoin really breaks through later, it will most likely be a bloodsucking market for Bitcoin, and altcoins will still find it hard to rise. 3. Technically, Bitcoin is still in a strong bullish structure. Unless there is a big bearish candle that changes the current 4-hour bullish structure. #DailyOrbit $BTC If we were to narrate today's crypto market, it would probably be: The wind hasn't stopped, but the umbrella is already folded. It's not that the outlook is negative, but short-term funds are choosing to take profits first.
Scene 1: A "lukewarm" macro update
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, with unemployment rising to 4.2%, showing a clear weakening in employment momentum. Logically, this should heat up rate cut expectations; however, the Middle East situation remains tense, and the G7 is considering releasing up to 100 million barrels from strategic reserves.
Scene 2: ETF reverses and slows down
BTC spot ETFs saw about $3.1 billion net inflow over 9 consecutive days, but from September 30, there was a net outflow of about $173 million over two days. ETH had net outflows for 3 consecutive days, with about $55.4 million withdrawn on October 1 alone. SOL spot ETFs had about $188 million weekly inflow last week, but on October 1, it turned to an outflow of about $5.9 million. Coinbase also indicated: BTC profit-taking levels have risen to a yearly high, and spot buying momentum is slowing.
Scene 3: Candlestick map
$BTC: oscillating between 85,000–86,000, with 86,000 as the short-term strength/weakness dividing line; only a breakout will indicate a trend, and 82,000 is short-term support.
$ETH: after breaking above 2,600, current price is about 2,700–2,750, with resistance near 2,770; only a break above that targets 2,800. Fell for altcoins again 😭
Went all-in on $SAND and $CT yesterday and gave back two days of gains. $SAND dumped after a huge pump, while $CT pulled back right after my entry. Lost patience, cut losses, and learned the same lesson again 😂
Still holding $ETH—hoping for a quick pump Monday 🤞
#BTC现货ETF重回流入 #ETH资金持续流出
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge #BessentTreasuryYields