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K-shaped divergence between AI chain and consumer chain: storage supercycle meets supply response, Tesla rises while Nike collapses.
Fact: Storage side: According to reports from Korean media and KB Securities on October 1, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's Q3 operating profit expectations hit record highs, with the share of standard DRAM capacity dropping from 73% in 2025 to 59% in 2027. However, on October 2, Nikkei reported that Toshiba plans to invest about 60 billion yen to double HDD capacity in the Philippines, targeting a 30% market share. Seagate and Western Digital both fell about 10% that day, with Micron following down about 2%. Consumer side: Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in Q3, exceeding the company's consensus estimate of about 462,000 vehicles. Its stock rose 4.65% on October 2, closing at $370.59, but deliveries still declined 2.1% year-over-year, non-mainstream model deliveries nearly halved, and energy storage installations of 13.7 GWh fell short of the expected 15.9 GWh; Nike's revenue dropped 4% year-over-year, with a 22% decline in the Chinese market, lowered full-year guidance, and expanded layoffs. Its stock plunged about 12% that day, marking one of the largest single-day declines in history.
Transmission chain: AI capital expenditure pushes storage into a supercycle → price increases begin to genuinely erode downstream (whole machine price hikes) → supply side shows the first clear expansion response (Toshiba) → market discounts the "perpetual shortage" narrative for the first time → storage stocks switch from "demand pricing" to "supply discipline pricing"; similarly on the consumer side: high-end and essential demand diverge, electric vehicles rely on product cycles to hold up, while traditional sports consumption is hit by both emerging brands and weakness in the Chinese market.$CT Still the same sentence, why do those new coins that go directly to exchanges now, even if they are legitimate projects, have so few participants? Because they still follow the old pattern: after fundraising, institutions, project teams, and even some exchanges divide the tokens. Once the tokens are distributed, they just wait to cash out on the exchange. This approach is no longer popular. For example, the raised funds are used to develop a niche, low-tech, unpopular sector; some projects are even half-finished products. Many tokens have a long list of supposed uses, but zero real-world application; the actual utility of the tokens is zero. Some projects succeed, but their tokens have no real use or consumption. About 99% basically fall into this category. The key is that these worthless projects still claim to be legitimate and maintain high market caps. If these are truly projects funded by legitimate institutions, at least the tokens should have some real utility and consumption scenarios. If they have nothing, they are no different from these worthless tokens.$ETH Ethereum's converging triangle is about to close and break out today📊
The upper resistance line is steadily dropping, with lower highs; the lower support line keeps rising, with higher lows each time. The two lines will intersect tomorrow, and the direction will be revealed today, no need to wait until next week.
This week's market is clear: 2630 to 2650 has been repeatedly hammered, but each time it bounces back, showing support below. 2780 was tested three times but couldn't break through, with heavy selling pressure above, and the range is narrowing.
Coincidentally, the US stock market opens tomorrow, right at the triangle's apex. Such timing overlaps often hide signals.
No guessing on price direction, just remember the confirmation conditions:
To go up, it must firmly hold above 2780; just touching it doesn't count as a breakout;
To go down, breaking below 2626 will invalidate the lower support line.
Looking at $BTC, 85000 is the boundary between bulls and bears. If $BTC holds steady, Ethereum's rise will have a solid foundation. In terms of funds, this week $BTC ETF inflows returned, while Ethereum continues to see outflows. If a rally happens, $BTC will most likely lead, with Ethereum following.
Don't preemptively bet on the market before the triangle breaks out; wait for a confirmed breakout before trading.
⚠️ Market observations are not trading advice; contract trading carries high risk!
👉 Tomorrow at ETH's triangle apex, do you think it will choose to go up or down?
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Why are some people still shorting $BTC when it rises to 86426? Because they see resistance at 86963 and think it will fall. But in a real trend, resistance levels are meant to be broken through, not to guess the top. I lost 200,000 U because I used to short at resistance levels and got stopped out. Now I've learned: when the trend is up, only go long; enter on a pullback to support at 86000, stop loss at 85800, target 86963, and if broken, look to 87500. Open a position with 5000 U, never hold without a stop loss. Remember this: don't guess the top in a trend, don't chase trades in a range. $BTC #$BNB wants to go higher
$BNB is back around $800, holding near the top of its recent range while the broader market is still finding direction
The interesting part: buyers keep defending the $780–$790 area
If BNB breaks and holds above $810, I think the next leg higher could start getting interesting
For now, I’m watching the breakout — not chasing itLet's talk about the most common mistake retail investors make: locking themselves into one direction. Some are always long and feel uncomfortable seeing red; others treat being "short gods" as a belief, stubbornly holding short positions even when prices skyrocket.
This week, many people have been watching me closely, sometimes short, sometimes long. To be clear, going long or short is just two tools for me—whichever has better odds at the moment, I use it, no emotions, no baggage. The ones who really lose big are those who commit to one direction and then use all their subsequent positions to prove they were right initially.
It's the same with poker; no hand is "destined" to be played. Fold when you should, raise when you should. Whether it's $BTC or $ETH, they don't owe you a direction. Which type are you: a die-hard bull or a die-hard bear? 🚨 Why does $CORE struggle to pull off a 100x? The answer might already be sitting in the supply.
There’s one problem the market shouldn’t ignore: 69 million “ghost” CORE tokens.
After the August 31 reward loophole, malicious nodes were able to mine rewards years ahead of schedule. The team later hard-forked the network and removed the abnormal tokens still sitting in the reward pool.
But here’s the catch 👇
#DailyOrbit $BTC $ETH
ETH bulls are now obsessed to a crazy degree. Even with the Nasdaq crashing, they keep singing bullish.
They call a small bullish candle a reversal, a bearish candle a shakeout, always making excuses for themselves. The market is crystal clear: under pressure, shrinking volume, false breakouts, the weak bear market pattern remains unchanged.
I'm holding my short positions steadily, waiting for the bull trap to end before starting the downtrend.
If you think I'm losing, keep being stubborn; the market is the best at disciplining the disobedient.
Congrats in advance to those chasing highs and getting deeply trapped.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $BTC Patience in waiting for definitive signals is the foundation of trading.
Looking back at the four-hour chart, Bitcoin started a rebound wave from a low position, tested the upper resistance after a rally, and closed with an upper shadow under pressure, current price 865
On the four-hour timeframe, the price tested the upper Bollinger Band resistance twice, with the previous high at 872 forming a strong resistance platform. Multiple attempts to break above failed to produce an effective breakout. The Bollinger Bands remain open upward, maintaining a solid mid-term bullish structure, but after continuous rises, bullish momentum is weakening and selling pressure above continues to release. The lower Bollinger middle band at 852 serves as the core support zone for this rebound. If this support holds, the market will maintain a main trend of oscillating upward, with the possibility of a second rally to test the previous high; if the support zone is effectively broken, it signals bullish exhaustion and the market will enter a phase of correction, completing the repair of the upward wave.
Switching to the one-hour timeframe, short-term candlesticks enter sideways consolidation, with a clear weakening of short-term upward momentum. The price repeatedly oscillates within a small range, with intensified long-short battles, leaning towards short-term consolidation and digestion. The hourly resistance aligns with the 872 area, and short-term support is at 860. If unable to break above the upper boundary, a downward retracement to test support is highly likely.
Short near Bitcoin 872, target 852
Short near Ethereum 274, target 270$ZEC has been uncertain about its bottom since its peak at $1,300, but if this rally is considered to have sustained momentum, this is not the starting point for dollar-cost averaging purchases.
A simple condition: if the daily close falls below $800, the price is expected to be well above this; $1,625-1,630 is the line below the price, every long who chased last night is sitting behind that, then $1,600-1,615, and then $1,540, yesterday's bottom.
$BTC continues to operate between the resistance area at the 87,300 level and the marked uptrend, as mentioned yesterday, the most critical level is breaking through the resistance at 87,300; as long as this resistance is not broken, the risk of the trend attempting again and breaking downwards will not be completely eliminated.
In the short term, this will be observed for a while longer. Today is the weekly close, so in the remaining time of the day, sharp fluctuations may be seen, considering these mentioned levels, regardless of direction. #ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BTC has reclaimed the $86.4K area and successfully recovered $85K, with short-term bulls still showing no clear signs of retreat. The next key focus is the $87.3K → $88K zone. If there is a volume breakout and the price holds above, the next step is likely to test liquidity and stop-loss zones near $90K.🔥 However, the closer it gets to $90K, the more cautious I become. If BTC experiences a spike and pullback between $87K–$90K, the short term may retest $84.5K, and if it breaks further, attention should turn to $81K–$80K. As for the much-discussed $61K level, I am not betting on it prematurely.📉 Only when the price structure clearly weakens and key supports are consecutively broken will I reconsider deeper correction targets. 📌 Current core logic: $87K–$90K = final decision zone for bulls and bears Breakout and hold → $90K+ Spike failure → $84.5K → $81K–$80K The most important thing now is not to predict but to wait for price confirmation. #BTC #Bitcoin #BTCUSDT #CryptoMarket #BitcoinAnalysis #BTCUpdate #DailyOrbitApplied Digital will release its earnings report after the market closes this Wednesday. I think the focus this time is not on how much loss there is, but whether the rent has increased. I won’t chase before the earnings.
Background: It used to provide hosting for Bitcoin mining farms and has now transformed into an AI data center.
Last Friday it closed at 25.38, up 5%, with 26.4 million shares traded, nearly 70% more than the 20-day average volume.
But it has already halved from the high of 50.7 at the end of May.
What I see: On October 2, the North Dakota campus powered up another 75 megawatts, bringing the online capacity to 250 megawatts.
However, this quarter’s earnings report ends in August, when only 175 megawatts were running; the new capacity will only be counted in the January report next year.
Last quarter, 100 megawatts generated $44.1 million in base rent, which is about $440,000 per megawatt per quarter.
My view: The signed lease of 1,410 megawatts, about $36 billion, is real, but currently less than 20% is operational.
The market expects a loss of $0.3 per share this quarter, and the stock price is still below the 20-day moving average of 26.1 and the 50-day moving average of 27.2.
What to do: Observe and don’t chase before the earnings; wait for volume to push above 27.2 before considering; if it falls below the October 1 low of 23.6, avoid for now.
Do you think the AI data center transformation stock is a bet on the earnings or better to wait until after the earnings to get in?
$APLD $NVDA $CORZ
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 I am the mid-term intelligence guy!
Latest news: The SEC has approved Cboe BZX rule changes allowing Volatility Shares to issue 3x Bitcoin futures ETFs and 5 other leveraged commodity products, including 3x ETH, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas.
Key points on $BTC /$ETH: The products track the daily performance of CME futures, aiming to rise 3% if the price rises 1%, and fall 3% if the price falls 1%. They rely on futures exposure without directly holding coins, reset daily, and daily compounding causes long-term returns to deviate from the benchmark.
Trading must wait for the registration statement to take effect, with at least 100,000 shares issued at opening and daily NAV calculation.
From a mid-term perspective, the launch of 3x leveraged ETFs is a compliant capital accumulation channel, with sentiment leaning bullish.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 The number of signatures on a multisig address does not equal decentralized governance
A 4/7 multisig means that at least four out of seven authorized addresses must sign to execute, but this only indicates a key threshold and does not prove that the seven people are truly independent. If all keys are held by the same company, members answer to the same management, or multiple devices are located in the same place, apparent decentralization can still be controlled simultaneously by a single event.
Decentralized governance depends on the identities of the signers, legal and organizational relationships, geographic and device isolation, and the process for replacing members. It is also necessary to check what the multisig can do: the risks of upgrading contracts, transferring treasury funds, and pausing withdrawals are completely different. Publishing the admin address in $ETH applications is only the first step; users need to know how the power behind that address is actually constrained.
Better multisigs disclose member responsibilities, set operational limits and time locks, provide expiration mechanisms for emergency powers, and prevent unilateral control over member replacement processes. A higher signature threshold is not always safer; if members become unreachable, the system may become unresponsive. Multisigs reduce the risk of a single private key being stolen but do not automatically create good governance; the digital structure and real control relationships must be reviewed together.The market now believes the overall market is about to exit the bear market and return to a bull market. $ETH has broken through from 2530 to the 2700-2800 range, with all short positions forcibly liquidated, stop-losses triggered, and shorts bought back, but there hasn't been much upward momentum.
Even retail traders know to go long when the bull market returns, so why are you still shorting at the top? If $BTC is returning to a bull market, it will first drop to around 2450 to trigger a short squeeze before moving up in a consolidation.
Currently, $ZEC has a floating profit of $260,000, with funding fees costing over $6,000. Just hold on; it's been a tiring period.Overnight BTC peaked at 86798, hovering around 87,000 all night, finally closing near 86665, up 2.26% in 24 hours. ETH at 2729 (+1.37%), SOL at 121.34 (+1.05%), all slightly up but none showing strong momentum. The fee rates are interesting. BTC at 0.008%, ETH and SOL both at 0.01%, all positive but very low. Bulls are still willing to pay interest, but no one wants to pay a premium to grab chips. In short, bullish in words but cautious in action. This mildness is actually healthier than full-on excitement. Today, watch two things. First, whether 87,000 can hold; if it holds, the space above opens up, if not, it will be another upper shadow. Second, the SEC funding shutdown and crypto ETF review suspension shot to the top of trending last night, a short-term emotional disturbance; combined with Zcash ETF's net outflow of $93.6 million last week, institutional sentiment can only be described as average. Do you think 87,000 is a barrier or a threshold? Comment below.China and the US announce reciprocal tariff reduction lists: each worth $30 billion, but the tariff truce is extended for only two months, excluding soybeans and technology.
Fact: On September 28, China and the US released lists of trade negotiation outcomes: each side has about $30 billion worth of goods receiving more favorable tariff treatment. The US list includes 1,619 product categories (agricultural products, personal care, coal, etc.), while the Chinese list includes 77 categories (toys, home appliances, holiday goods, etc.). Over 90% of these products will be subject to the most-favored-nation tariff rates without additional country-specific tariffs. The tariff truce period is extended by only two months until January 10, 2027, shorter than the previously expected 6-12 months; soybeans are not included in the tariff reduction list and still carry an additional 10% tariff; strategic sectors such as semiconductors and electric vehicles remain untouched. The next summit between the two leaders is expected at the APEC meeting in Shenzhen in November. Sources: Al Jazeera, USA Today, Ministry of Commerce statement (reposted by China.com and Xinhua News Agency), Manila Times commentary.
Transmission chain: tariff reductions on non-sensitive goods → marginal improvement in costs for US importers and orders for Chinese exporters → slight easing of consumer goods inflation; but with only a two-month truce window → companies are reluctant to restart long-term procurement and capacity decisions → tariff uncertainty premium remains in valuations → the positive effect manifests as an "emotional pulse" rather than "earnings upgrades".$OKB's big good news is here!
On October 5th, according to Bloomberg, OKX has submitted documents to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposing to launch a tokenized U.S. stock trading platform, becoming one of the first major crypto exchanges to operate under the new U.S. regulations. The operating entity OKXICE LLC plans to initially offer tokenized stocks of 63 companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange, with issuers allowed to opt out within 30 days before the trading launch.
OKXICE was jointly established by OKX and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, combining OKX's blockchain infrastructure with ICE's market technology. ICE invested in OKX in March this year, valuing OKX at $25 billion at the time, and both parties agreed to collaborate on developing U.S.-regulated crypto futures business.
The SEC previously granted a temporary exemption allowing blockchain versions of securities to be traded in the U.S. According to relevant rules, tokenized securities must include full shareholder rights such as dividends and voting rights. The launch timing of OKXICE still depends on the completion of the 30-day opt-out period and other requirements. OKXICE co-chair Andrew Cuomo stated that this model can support global 24-hour stock trading. Telling you, $BTC is now at 86426, just over 500 points away from resistance at 86963. I opened a long position near 86000 and have gained over 400 points so far. My plan is to take half profits at 86800, set a trailing stop loss at 86500 for the rest. If it breaks 86963, I'll hold to see 87500; if not, I'll close all positions. Recovering from a 200,000 U loss, now taking some profit and running part of it, no greed. Opened position with 5000 U, no holding through losses, must set stop loss, securing profits is the hard truth. What do you think, should I exit or hold at this level? $BTC #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Brothers, don't just focus on the K-line; the 24-hour long and short liquidation pain points are already close to the current price.
📌 $BTC
Current price: 86,486
Short pain point: 87,501, distance +1.17%, about 9.6808 million U
Long pain point: 85,714, distance -0.89%, about 6.7071 million U
👉 87,500 is a key level to prevent short squeezes.
📌 $ETH
Current price: 2,729
Short pain point: 2,759, distance +1.07%, about 4.3917 million U
Long pain point: 2,707, distance -0.83%, about 5.0023 million U
👉 Once 2,759 is broken, shorts are easily harvested continuously.
📌 $ZEC
Current price: 121.06
Short pain point: 122.51, distance +1.19%
Long pain point: 120.46, distance -0.50%, about 9.8796 million U
👉 Here, I am more cautious about a downside kill; longs are too close to the pain point.
📌 $XRP
Current price: 1,339
Short pain point: 1,378.75, distance +2.96%
Long pain point: 1,302.85, distance -2.71%
👉 Liquidation distances are relatively far, so it's not the most dangerous for now.
My judgment is straightforward: $BTC and $ETH defend against short squeezes above, $ZEC defends against long kills below.
In the 24-hour data, what’s really worth watching is not "who will rise," but rather—who is closest to the liquidation trigger.On-site observation:
Pop Mart in Singapore is also packed with people
The queue for payment is very long
It is estimated that this year's financial report will be very impressive again
$POPMART $xPOPMART Surging strongly, keep it up, Oligei
🔥 The $CORE supply reduction is accelerating.
From Q1 to Q3 of 2026, over 72,700 CORE have been permanently burned:
• Q1: 15,516 CORE
• Q2: 27,264 CORE
• Q3: 29,933 CORE
In Q4, more than 5,883 CORE are pending burn, and the amount continues to grow.
The key mechanism is simple:
Stake → Activity → Fees → Burn → Supply Reduction
Don't just focus on price and hype. The real signal is whether network activity continuously generates fees and permanently reduces the $CORE supply.📊🔥$CORE $PONS has dropped even more than I expected! If it can't pull out two medium bullish candlesticks in the next couple of days, it might start the main downtrend. We're only in the second wave, but it's already been halved twice; after the third wave, it might drop to 0.1! There are two main reasons for this decline: first, after the honeymoon period, the income has shown its true form and is being crushed by $PUMP; second, there was a problem with the buyback mechanism, which the founder has already come out to explain. I believe this should be resolved in the next few days. But no matter what, the income has dropped too fast recently, and even with buybacks, not many circulating coins can be bought. This is the biggest concern externally. The only advantage now is the low market cap and potential, since the market cap is only about one-tenth of $PUMP. It's still worth betting on PONS. I will keep my position unchanged until it truly stabilizes. Once the two concerns above are resolved, it won't be too late to add more!$ETH is back around $2.73K
The $1,700 “dead zone” call is history now — ETH has already climbed more than 60% from the September lows
But the next part matters more
$2,750–$2,800 is the key resistance zone. Reclaim it cleanly and $3K becomes the next major checkpoint
The bigger roadmap can still point toward $5,679, but first ETH has to prove it can break the current ceiling
One level at a timeHaven't eaten lunch yet, so let's chat about an old familiar friend. $ADA actually woke up today. Spot price is around 0.269, 24 hours ago it was still at 0.243, up just over 10%, with a high touching 0.271, and a trading volume of over 14 million U. It's one of the few with substantial volume on the gainers list, not a small cap pumped with just a few million in trades.
Contract open interest is about 42 million dollars, with a fee rate of 0.01%, which is normal, and the bulls haven't been squeezed into a cluster. At 6 AM, the hourly candle surged to 0.2687 on volume then pulled back, afterward gradually climbing higher. This kind of movement is much more comfortable than a sharp spike. BTC is at 86,500, ETH at 2729; the market is steady enough for it to rise. I'm watching two levels: if it stabilizes above the previous high of 0.271, then we can consider the next step; if it falls back below 0.26, then consider this heatwave over. Old coins rising easily trap people halfway up the mountain, so don't rush to chase.
$BTC $ETH $ADA #ADA #Cardano #GainersList #Altcoins
#TheFedAndECBToReleaseSeptemberMeetingMinutes #HormuzStillClosedOPEC+MaintainsNovemberProduction #OKXNOWTheFutureIsHereMajorAnnouncementsUnveiling
#RiskWarning
The above does not constitute investment advice; control your position size, the market carries risks.A 2% rebound is not strong; it's 2% after a 400-point drop.
$ZEC fell from 1660 to 1270, now back to 1332.
Up 2.28% in 24 hours, it looks like buying is coming back.
How this number is calculated:
Dropped 390 points, rebounded 62 points, only recovering one-sixth.
It didn't even touch the previous day's high.
Where does the money come from:
Grayscale's spot ETF had a net outflow of $93.56 million this week.
When it rises, it's buying pressure; when it falls, it's selling pressure.
Buying accounts for 66% but the price can't be pushed up, indicating someone is selling at the top.
1270 to 1300 is support, 1350 to 1400 is resistance.
Rebounding into the resistance zone is where the bears re-enter.
If support breaks, look down to 1155.
Whether positions can hold depends on how far the liquidation price is from the current price.
From 1332 to 2653, there is still a doubling space in between.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 $ZEC The current market can be summed up in one word: conflicted. It can't fall, but it's also hard to rise.
$BTC: Three steps back, two steps forward, the center of gravity is slowly moving up. 85000 is support, 86000-87000 is resistance. The 4-hour volume is shrinking, building momentum, a direction will be chosen soon, but until then it's just grinding. The greed index is 70, sentiment is hot, but greed doesn't mean an immediate rise; it could also wash out first.
$ETH: Not following the rise because capital preference has changed. ETH/BTC continues to weaken; the same amount of money put into BTC has smaller pullbacks and stronger elasticity. Institutional core holdings are still BTC; ETH is more like a follow-up or hedge. 2700 is a hurdle; if it can't pass, it will fluctuate between 2650-2710.
Altcoins: Those that rose sharply earlier have stabilized after a pullback, but that doesn't mean they can rally immediately. The altcoin season index hit 74, just short of 75. Currently, incremental funds are lacking, leverage is heavy, and larger pullbacks are normal. Those that can hold steady either have real value or have fallen so low that no one is left to sell.
Junk coin explosive rallies: This is actually a signal indicating short-term funds have nowhere else to go and must look for opportunities at the fringes. Without a main theme, each sector is a one-day tour; today's top gainers may plunge tomorrow. Essentially, it's rotating bull traps.
So, BTC is holding to prevent a drop, ETH can't keep up, altcoins are diverging, and junk coins are erratic. At times like this, either wait for BTC to choose a direction or watch lightly with small positions; don't get repeatedly worn down in the middle.$SNDK perpetual 75x long position, opened at 1,718.6, now at 1,732.3, floating profit +59.78%.
The idea is very simple: the bottom consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that the chips have settled. A single volume-increasing bullish candle directly pulls the price up from 1,720, a typical start signal, go long, not short. 75x leverage, stop loss at 1,680. The trend goes straight up, giving no comfortable entry point.
At this position, I plan to take profit on half the position first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half to 1,725 to let the profit run. If 1,750 can be broken with volume, continue holding; if not, exit all. $BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $ETH Market Analysis
Currently, the price of ETH is around $2720, overall still in a high-level consolidation phase after a rebound. From a technical perspective, the daily price stands above multiple moving averages, RSI is about 64, and the 4-hour and daily trends remain bullish, indicating that the medium-term bullish structure is not yet broken; however, the price has repeatedly faced resistance in the $2700–$2800 range, making short-term chasing funds cautious. The first support to watch is $2680–$2700, with further support at $2635–$2650. As long as it can stabilize above $2635, the overall upward structure remains valid.
On the upside, key resistance is at $2750–$2800, with $2800 being the true dividing line between bulls and bears. If volume increases and breaks through $2800 with a stable hold, technically it could open up further upside potential, with the next target near $3000; if multiple attempts to break $2800 fail, a retest of $2650 or even $2600 cannot be ruled out.
On the capital side, recently the US spot ETH ETF has seen continuous net outflows, totaling about $132 million from September 30 to October 2, indicating some short-term profit-taking pressure from institutional funds. However, the overall technical structure of ETH remains strong, and the Sepolia testnet will undergo the Glamsterdam upgrade on October 6, which also provides potential catalysts for the market. 2732, today we focus on this level
Yesterday was flat all day, but this morning finally made a push upward.
A big bullish candle directly pulled up to 2739, with volume larger than the past few days, showing real money is buying.
But don’t get too excited yet.
The bulls are scrambling to pay funding fees, while big players are reducing longs and adding shorts on the other side; the buying side is not dominant—the price is pulled up, but few follow into the market.
The 2732 line has been touched but not yet held.
Indicators support this push: MACD just formed a golden cross, and the big bullish candle with volume pushed the price to the upper boundary.
However, the short-term has already entered the overbought zone, and after the peak, it’s starting to pull back—the momentum is a bit lagging behind the price.
Don’t rush to trust it before a pullback comes.
If it goes up, the target is 2778; if it can’t, watch 2703 and 2680.
🤖 Took partial longs last night, sold them off in batches during this morning’s rise, the position was decent, then placed a series of shorts from 2712 up to 2737. The position is fine, just holding for now.
2732 has been touched, can it hold? $ETH
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓
⚠️The above content is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice.
Be flexible with key levels, control position size, take profits and stop losses timely, and pay attention to data timeliness. 10.5｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: mainly short on Monday's rally, never chase longs without volume breakout.
$BTC is currently around 86400. It consolidated around 84800 all day over the weekend, then Asian session directly pulled up to 86800, just shy of Friday's nonfarm high at 87200. The issue isn't the candlestick itself, but the 87300 level still hasn't held with volume. The nonfarm positive news only caused a wick spike once; funding rates remain slightly positive, and longs are still chasing. In this situation, if no one picks up in the US session, a pullback is very likely.
$ETH is now around 2730, moving in sync with BTC. Friday's high at 2778 also didn't hold, and today it just followed the bounce.
The real variable tonight is the ISM Services index, expected around 55.7. If the price subcomponent heats up again, US Treasury yields might rise anew, and BTC could retest 84800 or even drop to 83900.
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 86800-87300, target around 84800-83900.
ETH: Short between 2760-2780, target around 2680-2620.
If BTC breaks out above 87300 with volume, invalidate shorts immediately; never stubbornly hold against the trend.
Trading is never about guessing the outcome but about thinking through three scenarios in advance: what if it rises, what if it falls, and where to admit being wrong.
What do you think after tonight's ISM release? Will BTC first drop to 83900 or break through 87300 directly? The new week starts off a bit warm, meow 😼
$BTC I'm still somewhat optimistic about the start of this week.
This week, I want to see a pattern of alternating rises and consolidations, gradually pushing the price higher. Sudden accelerations followed by quick retreats back to the starting point tend to drain the confidence just built.
First, acknowledge the upward movement that has already happened, then watch the space ahead step by step.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
$ETH rose about 2.3% over the week, which is not particularly strong.
It now needs to give holders a reason to keep waiting. Just not falling much over time can also wear down patience.
If it can actively move up next and the pullbacks don’t erase all the gains, then expectations can reasonably rise. Worth watching for now.
$SOL rose about 15% over the past month, and the previous gains haven’t fully retreated.
My judgment is not pessimistic; if the market continues to warm this week, it needs to show more proactive performance. Following the fluctuations, it might still move upward.
$OKB I pay more attention to actual usage demand. It is the native fuel token of the X Layer, with a total supply of 21 million.
Limited quantity is a feature; going forward, it depends on whether on-chain usage can bring more demand. You can’t just keep talking about total supply without looking at how many people are using it.
$RE has about 16% of its total supply in circulation. When evaluating valuation, don’t just focus on circulating market cap, but with future supply increases, new demand is needed to absorb it.
Separate short-term performance from long-term supply. The rise can be acknowledged, but don’t ignore all future pressure because of it. Participation should still be with controlled position sizing.$PONS perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.4094, currently 0.3929, floating profit +80.60%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating insufficient willingness for chip follow-up. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 0.41, a typical breakdown signal, shorting is favored over longing. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.42. The trend is continuously downward, giving no comfortable exit points.
At this position, I plan to take profit on half of the position first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half to 0.40 to let profits run. If 0.38 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it doesn't break, exit fully. $ZEC $SOL #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 10.5 two coins $ETH
Trading idea: Pull back to 2700-2690, lightly buy on dips
For long positions, wait for a pullback to support before buying again. When the price drops to the 2700-2690 range and shows a stop-falling signal, enter in batches. The stop-loss is set below 2660; if it breaks down effectively, exit immediately without hesitation.
The upward target is first at 2730-2740. Take profits when reaching the target, focusing on quick in and out trades, don't be greedy. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 BTC stands above 86,000, I'm first watching these 3 altcoins for catch-up gains.
BTC is moving up, but the altcoins in my hand are still pretending to sleep.
I will wait for $HYPE, $WLD, and $NEAR next, but they need to strengthen on their own first.
HYPE: Targeting $92.
This morning OKX quotes about $90.7, up about 1.6% in 24 hours. I set $92 as the observation threshold; if it breaks through with volume and holds on a pullback, then look near $95. Ideally, it can continue to rise even when BTC is sideways.
WLD: Targeting $0.60.
Currently about $0.58, basically no increase in 24 hours, the most obvious laggard among the three today. But it has risen about 17% in the past week, so it’s not cheap just because it didn’t move today. I will wait for a volume-backed recovery above $0.60, then observe if there is capital relay.
NEAR: Targeting $5.
Currently about $4.98, up only about 0.27% in the past week. I’m more focused on whether it can end this week’s stagnation: after breaking $5 and holding, then look near $5.2. If it shoots up and immediately falls back, I’ll keep waiting.
These are my observation points, assuming BTC continues to hold above 86,000.
Catch-up gains require buying pressure. BTC can’t be already at the table while my coins are still looking for parking spots at the door. $ONE perpetual 10x short position, opened at 0.0021725, currently at 0.0020166, floating profit +71.76%.
The logic is simple: around 0.00217, repeated spikes followed by pullbacks, each rebound quickly suppressed, upper shadows getting longer, clearly weakening buying pressure. Once volume-driven break below 0.0021 occurs, confirm on the right side and enter short. 10x leverage, stop loss at 0.00225. The drop is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Now moving the stop loss to 0.00205 to lock in profit. If volume-driven break below 0.0018 happens, can hold a bit longer. $BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Currently, with the midterm elections approaching and combined with valuation suppression, the contract is a large position, and I am currently choosing to stay out of the market. Why? Facing uncertainty, my approach is the principle of trade-offs: to avoid potential losses, I choose to forgo potential profits. If there is indeed a breakout, I can choose to chase after the key breakout point. Trade your plan, plan your trade.$ATOM, a "inflation monster" criticized for five years, is quietly turning into a "buyback deflation asset"
Most people are still criticizing ATOM inflation, but the smart ones are already watching the burn address.
What was ATOM's biggest complaint in the past? A 10% annual increase, continuously diluting holders' equity. But in 2026, this is being completely rewritten.
Osmosis has updated the Cosmos Hub proposal to cancel new ATOM minting and instead use Osmosis DEX protocol revenue to gradually buy back ATOM on the open market, with a total scale limit within 2.5% of the total supply. Following closely, Cosmos Hub officially shifts to protocol revenue-funded ATOM buybacks and programmed burns.
How large is the burn scale? At the current 52.5% non-native token burn rate, about $575,000 worth of ATOM is permanently removed annually; including native fee burns, the annual burn scale can exceed $5 million.
What does this mean? The supply-side logic of ATOM is being rewritten from "inflation-driven" to "revenue-driven." Previously, stakers earned from inflation diluting non-stakers, but in the future, they will earn from real network-generated fees. Gauntlet's delegated tokenomics research has clearly pointed out: ATOM's problem is not inflation itself, but the distribution and usage of new tokens. The reform direction is to shift value capture from "air" to "revenue."
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $BNB perpetual 50x long position, opened at 785.6, now at 798.5, floating profit +82.10%.
Didn't overthink it: the consolidation period was long enough, the 785 level was repeatedly confirmed as valid, and the bottom characteristics were very clear. Entered as soon as a volume-increasing bullish candle appeared, following the trend, not emotions. 50x leverage, stop loss at 770. The rise was fast and steady, giving no chance for a second entry.
Locked in a safety cushion at 790 first. My personal judgment is that there will be selling pressure around 820; at that time, I'll decide whether to exit or hold based on volume, without guessing the top in advance. $BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Let's talk about the current low-volume upward trend of $BTC. Many bears are betting that this rally is a fake one. Here are my observations.
The market has already risen above 86,000, approaching 87,000, showing a pattern of rising price with shrinking volume, which inherently has two sides. Traditionally, low-volume rallies indicate weak buying power, but in a compressed consolidation market, shrinking volume often means selling pressure is exhausted, and the market is waiting for new capital to break the balance.
From technical indicators: the K-line amplitude is compressed to 1.62%, and the Bollinger Bands are extremely narrow, indicating a major move is brewing. On the futures side, open interest continues to decline, funding rates are neutral, and there is no clustering of leveraged funds, so there is no basis for a rapid crash caused by mass liquidations.
On-chain funds show clear differentiation: whale groups continue accumulating, increasing holdings by 41,025 BTC over 10 days, accounting for 67.93% of circulating supply, a six-week high; retail holders have almost no change in holdings, remaining in a wait-and-see mode. Regarding external incremental funds, ETFs have had net inflows for three consecutive weeks, with 82.9 million inflow last week, and institutional funds continue to increase their positions.
Trading-wise, the 85,600 support level needs close attention: if the price retests this level and holds with increased volume pushing upward, the resistance zone between 86,500 and 86,900 will likely be invalidated; conversely, if the support breaks with volume, the buildup will turn into a downward breakout.
Shrinking volume is just an intermediate state and cannot directly determine the direction of rise or fall; ultimately, we still wait for the market to choose a direction.
Which breakout do you favor more? #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 What kind of certain investment opportunities are there?
Especially in a bear market that has lasted a year, a highly PVP volatile game, every buy could be stuck at the peak, and every sell could be at the bottom.
There are only a few certain factors:
1) The bull market has arrived, liquidity will gradually become abundant, opportunities are everywhere, losses in one project will be made up by gains in others;
2) MEME paired tokens and MEME-bundled Agents will be the two main narratives of the major upward waves, with opportunities and information asymmetry coming from here;
3) Be brave to "pay" for innovative, fun, and forward-looking excellent projects, and avoid internal conflicts.In the current upward trend, three same-level rising consolidation zones have been formed sequentially, with the duration of consolidation cycles gradually converging and the oscillation time continuously shortening; subsequently, a secondary-level acceleration departure phase will occur. After this phase ends, there is a high probability of a short-term top divergence at this level, forming a stage high. The dense short positions at 88000 have been eliminated.
After the stage top is reached, the market will enter a higher-level consolidation construction process, with the expected oscillation cycle of this larger-level consolidation lasting about two months; once this higher-level consolidation structure is completed, a new round of primary bull market will officially begin.BTC is about to hit 90,000, but CORE is still stuck at $0.022, it's really infuriating! When the market rises, it plays dead; when the market falls, it dives. The hard-earned money of the grassroots workers is all drained by it.
Why is it so trash? Here's a straightforward breakdown of its three major problems:
1️⃣ 69 million “ghost tokens” hanging overhead: The free tokens leaked in August were neither burned nor locked, ready to crash the market anytime, so the main players dare not pump it.
2️⃣ The token model is extremely deceptive: Staking BTC earns BTC, but CORE is just a certificate to increase APY and keeps inflating, making it worth less the more you mine.
3️⃣ Intense competition in the sector, no recognition from funds: Big money is all chasing BTC, CORE’s ecosystem lacks hot money and has become completely abandoned.
If you missed the BTC rally and are stubbornly holding CORE, wake up, brothers. Don’t leverage up to bet on a surge. Coins with fundamental flaws like this will only go to zero if you hold through losses.
Just keep some spot for observation, protect your principal, work hard, and staying alive is better than anything! $BTC $CORE #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $TRUMP perpetual 50x long position, opened at 2.043, currently at 2.079, unrealized profit +88.10%.
Just betting on a bottom reversal: 2.04 tested three times without breaking, volume increasing stepwise, very standard bottom characteristics. Enter the market at the moment the bullish candle pulls up, never guess the bottom prematurely. 50x leverage, stop loss at 2.00. This wave has been very clean, almost no pullbacks.
For now, do nothing, let the bullet fly a bit. Keep 2.07 as the defensive line to protect the principal, wait for a clear signal around 2.15 before deciding to add or not, no rush. $ZEC $SNDK #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Hyperliquid bought and permanently burned 112.58K $HYPE at a VWAP of $90.20 in the past 24 hours, worth approximately $10.15 million. The funds mainly came from trading fees and AQAv2 revenue, while the protocol generated about $9.89 million in fees during the same period. A total of about 49.25 million HYPE (approximately 4.45% of the max supply) has been burned so far. 👉🏻Short-term impact This burn directly removed over ten million dollars worth of buy orders from the market, effectively providing solid buying support. HYPE's current price is hovering around $90, with the burn price and current price almost the same, indicating the buyback did not chase a higher price and was quite efficient. In the short term, this can ease selling pressure and boost sentiment, especially while trading volume remains, making it easy to form a "buying + deflation" small cycle. However, note that tomorrow (October 6) about $339 million worth of HYPE will be unlocked, which may bring short-term selling pressure, so the positive effect of the burn may not immediately fully offset it. 👉🏻Long-term impact Hyperliquid's mechanism is very clear: most fees plus stablecoin reserve income go into the Assistance Fund, which continuously buys HYPE on the secondary market and burns it. Nearly $5 billion in market value has been burned cumulatively, and the deflationary logic is genuinely in operation. As long as platform trading volume and TVL do not collapse, this "the more active, the more burn" flywheel will keep turning. In the long run, continuous supply contraction is a structural positive for holders, especially if protocol revenue remains stable.OKB Dollar-Cost Averaging Log: Daily 100U, Day 344
#
$OKB Price: $121.96
This market is so boring. I just saw OKX announce the upcoming launch of OKXICE, a tokenized securities venue (TSV) in cooperation with the NYSE. The last time they announced a partnership, it directly boosted OKB's price. This big move is finally coming. Not sure if it's built on Xlayer, but that would be truly compliant.
Funds Injected Today:
100 USDT | Tokens Acquired: 0.81 OKB
Total Funds Injected:
34525.13 USDT (Daily DCA: 34400U + Others: 125.13) | Tokens Acquired: 368.82 OKB | Average Cost: 93.53 USDT | Profit: +10427.81 USDT (+30.30%)
BTC approached $87K again over the weekend, but there were few new industry-level events; on the capital side, BTC ETF inflows continued, ETH ETF outflows persisted, and SOL ETF enthusiasm noticeably cooled.
Overall: BTC retesting highs, institutional funds favor BTC, ETH/SOL ETFs relatively weak, and the weekend industry news was generally quiet.
#DollarCostAveraging#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 After $BTC surged to 86963, it started to stagnate and pull back, and the market suddenly became lively, with a very obvious polarization in the community.
Some people have already begun fantasizing about 90,000, 100,000, crazily showing off screenshots of their long position profits; another group who missed out before are hoping every day for a big correction to get a chance to enter. Human nature is always more direct than candlestick charts; when prices rise, bullish voices are overwhelming.
Behind this rally, ETF funds have been continuously flowing in solidly, institutional funds keep entering, and risk-hedging buying keeps pushing the market higher. But on the 15-minute level, weakness is already evident, RSI is dropping quickly from the overbought zone, and short-term bullish momentum is showing signs of exhaustion.
Don’t get carried away by the continuous rise; macro data hangs overhead, and if inflation data falls short of expectations, it could trigger a rapid sell-off at any time. Many retail investors have rushed in at high levels to take the baton, and risks are gradually accumulating.
Don’t blindly chase highs; even if the big trend is upward, a decent short-term pullback is needed to clear floating positions. Don’t mistake a phase rebound for a one-sided perpetual bull market; heavy bets at high levels on new highs can easily lead to big losses. We are now in a high-level game phase—better to miss out than to stubbornly charge in.
#BTC short-term bullish momentum weakening #ETF funds continuously flowing in #Inflation data approaching, beware of volatility
$BTC$SAND perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.07388, currently 0.07241, floating profit +99.48%.
The idea is very simple: the top consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating insufficient willingness of holders to follow the trend. A single high-volume bearish candle smashed the price down from 0.074, a typical breakdown signal, short but don't chase longs. 50x leverage, stop loss at 0.076. The trend is continuously downward, giving no comfortable exit point.
At this position, I plan to take profit on half the position first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half to 0.0725 to let profits run. If 0.07 breaks down with volume, continue holding; if it doesn't break, close all positions. $XRP $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $ATOM whales are quietly accumulating while retail investors are frantically cutting losses—ATOM is playing out a textbook-level reverse squeeze
When you are panic selling, there is a group doing the exact opposite.
ATOM is currently around $1.75, with Binance spot trading volume only about $3.2 million—liquidity is extremely thin. On the surface, sellers are fully in control, with the price breaking below the 7-day, 20-day, and 200-day moving averages; the technical pattern "provides no positive signals."
But looking at the derivatives market, the story is completely different: Binance top traders (institutions and high-volume smart money accounts) have a long-short ratio as high as 1.4462, with 59.1% of positions long on ATOM. Meanwhile, the retail buy/sell ratio is only 0.6990, meaning for every unit of buyer volume, there are about 1.43 times as many active sell orders.
Whales are going long, retail is going short. When such a significant divergence occurs, one side is bound to be "educated."
At the same time, the stochastic %K has dropped to 17.35, deep in the oversold zone. If bears continue to add positions at this reading, historical data shows it is "often too late." The SMA 50 at $1.60-$1.62 perfectly coincides with immediate support and is the current decisive defense line. If $1.60 holds successfully, the first target is resistance at $1.75, followed by strong resistance at $1.83—about a 10% increase from the current level.
#OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
#OKX百万规划师 $ZEC perpetual 50x long position, opened at 1312.91, now at 1340.27, floating profit +104.19%.
The logic is simple: repeatedly testing the bottom around 1310, each dip is quickly recovered, the wicks get shorter and shorter, and selling pressure clearly weakens. Once volume pushes above 1325, confirmed on the right side, enter more longs. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1280. The rally is very smooth, no chance for a pullback.
Now moving the stop loss to 1330 to lock in profits. If volume breaks above 1400, can hold for more. $BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要