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A morning news push popped up: Bitwise's Dogecoin ETF is going to liquidate, with the last trading day on October 14. I stared at it for two seconds, almost dropping my baozi. Not scared, just amused.
Don't get me wrong, it's not schadenfreude. It reminded me of my first DOGE back in 2014, when I installed the official wallet on a broken laptop, syncing the blockchain for three days and nights, the fan spinning like a tractor, and my wife asking if the computer was infected. Back then, there was no ETF; buying it meant going through several hoops, and when it finally arrived, I felt like it was New Year's.
Now, institutions have come, put up a sign, and less than a year later, they pull out saying no one is buying. I glanced at the scale, and indeed, it's meager. But this made me realize one thing: $DOGE's roots have never been with the suited and booted. It was built on tips, fed by small gratuities, accumulated bit by bit by a bunch of bored yet fun people. Musk's X Pay is still pushing forward on that front; I've been watching this line for three years, and it hasn't stopped.
Feeling uneasy? A little. The word liquidation sounds bad on anyone. But the batch of coins in my cold wallet has been lying there for five years; I've seen all kinds of scenes. ETF openings and closings are institutional matters; I'll just walk my dog and accumulate my coins. ETH
Long near 2495-2500
Take profit at 2525
Stop loss at 2475
Currently, after a volume surge and a downward move, a five-minute level trend divergence appears. First, a one-minute rebound shows a characteristic sequence bottom fractal with valid first and second buy signals, and it closes the previous decline s2, ending the prior downtrend. The one-minute chart forms a running upward central pivot, with the third buy valid. After the downtrend divergence, a return to the original central pivot is inevitable, playing for a rebound. @scottmelker In the episode "How Not to Invest," a textbook case was discussed:
The $LAPTOP token related to Hunter Biden plummeted 98%, and a report stated that market makers earned about $2.8 million in the process. Hunter Biden himself said he hopes the market makers will buy back all these tokens.
What’s most worth noting about this isn’t just another celebrity token crash, but the structural issues it exposes.
Celebrity tokens often don’t sell products or cash flow, but rather the attention brought by "the name."
Attention comes quickly and leaves just as fast.
If a token lacks real cash flow and sustained demand support, then the price increase itself may become the biggest selling point. Once the buying pressure disappears, the support for the price vanishes as well.
As for "having market makers buy back," it actually reveals another problem: market makers provide liquidity but are not inherently obligated to repurchase. Without clear buyback rules, redemption commitments, or legal responsibilities, it’s difficult to establish an effective recourse mechanism after a crash when asking one party to take over.
People buy because of the name, but only look for someone to blame when they lose money.
This is the most dangerous aspect of celebrity tokens: traffic can create price, but traffic itself cannot create value.This tokenized stock is displaying a powerful bullish reversal signal. After bottoming out at 2.972 $xXIAOMI surged +8.02% to 3.259 forming a massive bullish engulfing candle. The price is currently challenging the MA20 at 3.271.
This is a critical inflection point. If the daily candle closes above the MA20 it confirms a trend reversal opening the door for a rally toward the 3.400–3.500 resistance zone. The MA5 (3.113) and MA10 (3.142) have already been reclaimed providing short-term support. Watching the market obsessively gets annoying; turning it off actually makes things clearer, and when your eyes aren't glued to it, your mind stays calm. During the bottoming process in the session, the $ZEC sell orders were strong, with low trading volume, heavy resistance above, and no buyers stepping in.
From 1,247.48 down to 1,225.02, a +90.18% big gain. The earlier period was really sluggish, but the outcome turned out great.
Don't lose patience in the choppy market and then try to regain dignity by betting on a one-sided move.
Being out of the market isn't a sin; opening positions recklessly is the real mistake.
Take profits on 80% first, protect the remaining 20% at cost price, and don't give back your gains if it bounces back. Wait for the next opportunity; there will be more chances, so don't rush.
$XRP $SNDK Amazing, King of Knowledge! Acting as both referee and player!
$SPACE $ETH
On August 18, Trump's investment account purchased SpaceX senior unsecured notes worth between $1 million and $5 million, with a coupon rate of 5.35%, maturing in July 2031.
Two days later, on August 20, Trump signed a new National Space Transportation Policy requiring the U.S. to significantly expand commercial space transportation capabilities.
The policy sets goals including enabling U.S. facilities to handle over 1,000 launches and reentry missions annually by 2030, requiring federal agencies to increase commercial use of government launch facilities, and encouraging private capital and public-private partnerships to participate in space infrastructure development.
SpaceX is both a key contractor for the U.S. Department of Defense and a major launch service provider for NASA, making it one of the companies likely to directly benefit from the expansion of the U.S. commercial space market.
Trump's account bought SpaceX debt on August 18 and signed the space policy on August 20. Existing public information does not prove that Trump personally made this transaction based on insider knowledge of the policy.
Trump had previously held SpaceX-related investments but at a significantly smaller scale. Disclosures show he bought SpaceX stock worth between $15,000 and $50,000 in June when SpaceX went public, and again in July, and sold stock worth between $1,000 and $15,000 in July.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The top 25 token deployers on Pump.fun have issued about 770,000 tokens in total, taking approximately $128 million from the market — but among these 770,000 tokens, only 6 have ever reached a market cap of $20 million. The hit rate is less than one in a thousand.
This ratio indicates one thing: 770,000 token issuances essentially contribute to the fee schedules of the platform and deployers; whether the projects succeed is secondary. Out of 770,000 attempts, 769,994 are most likely just running alongside, and the liquidity and attention consumed by these runners are the real parts being harvested.
Retail investors see a "low-threshold wealth creation" story, but in reality, they are participating in a nearly infinite supply filtering game — for every additional token issued on the supply side, the probability of finding those 6 "survivors" is further diluted, and this cost is never told to you in advance.
The above is purely subjective analysis and does not constitute investment advice.
#Robinhood链上交易激增，币股Meme成主角 TrumpToutsCPIWi#StarlinkSpectrumDeal
Just took off my labor gloves covered in mortar, wiped the sweat off my face, and saw my coworkers holding up their phones shouting that Trump was bragging about his inflation data achievement again.
This old contractor shouted loudly about inflation cooling down, but on the flip side, he forcibly pushed up the plate of this veteran construction company, Microsoft, making it look lively and booming.
But I squatted at the construction site trailer door and saw that this scene was like the main structure of the building not yet topped out; the contractor, to cope with the owner's inspection, hurriedly set up a thin layer of scaffolding overnight for the painters to rush the exterior wall paint progress—purely superficial work.
Whether this Microsoft skyscraper can withstand the storm of interest rate hikes and cuts later has nothing to do with how bright the exterior paint is but depends on whether the load-bearing walls can hold the strength.
Its real load-bearing beams are the cloud business's continuous cash flow mixer, and the main steel frame standing at the core stress point is the AI server infrastructure currently being poured frantically.
If these two main beams can't bear the weight, and the foundation slab's steel reinforcement isn't dense enough, then this kind of rise driven by a few positive news is just a cantilever platform temporarily propped up with steel pipes and fasteners.
Once the hype dies down and the temporary scaffolding outside is removed with a crash, and if the cement mortar grade inside doesn't meet standards or the concrete curing period is forcibly ended before formwork removal, the whole building will instantly suffer a penetrating brittle fracture, directly smashing through the safety net below. 🏗️🧱500U Challenge to 1 Million [300x] | Day 27
Initial Capital: 500U
Current Net Value: 598.36U
Profit/Loss: 98.36U (Total) | -21.71U (Today)
Profit Rate: +19.67% (Total) | -3.5% (Today)
Phase One: 500 -> 1000U
After multiple failed attempts by BTC to break above 87000, I closed my SOL long position at 120.71 and my BTC long position at 85556.9. The anticipated downward break of BTC indeed happened; last night BTC dropped to a low of 80303, and SOL fell to 105.56. The speed of this drop was extremely fast. After liquidating, the funds were used for US stock trading, successfully avoiding a major loss this time. Although US stocks also experienced a pullback last night, they quickly recovered. Currently, the account balance has reached 638U, actually making a slight profit. There is only one most important principle in trading markets: preserve the principal. Therefore, this round's proactive adjustment strategy was successful. Due to unclear performance in US stocks last night, I took some profits by reducing positions while holding a small amount of GOOGL, SPCX, MU, and XAU long positions. I will observe the US market opening tonight to see if there are any buying opportunities at lower prices.
The above is my personal trading experience record and does not constitute investment advice! $BTC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 兄弟们，剧情反转了：大饼从昨天低点约80400弹回约82500。昨晚全网爆仓约11亿美元，九成是多单——洗盘还是反转？ 第一件事，宏观说人话：特朗普在Truth Social发文，11月3日中期选举前不对伊朗动武。消息一出，WTI原油从约93回落到91附近，大饼应声弹回82000上方。 第二件事，主力行情：大饼现约82500，二饼现约2500。81000是支撑、82000是阻力，现在正卡在阻力位上，能不能站稳很关键。 第三件事，爆仓和资金面：一边是，昨晚约11亿爆仓里二饼一家爆了约3.1亿，比比特币还多，按市值折算受伤强度是大饼的6倍；一边是，ETF的钱还在跑，10月8日BTC现货ETF净流出约2.44亿、ETH流出约7254万，只有XRP净流入（+817万）。 两个配菜：泰国SEC敲定BTC、ETH现货ETF规则，10月16日生效；美国政府把约10亿美元涉案BTC转到新地址，没进交易所——转钱包不等于卖。 今日关注：10月16日泰国ETF规则生效；11月3日美国中期选举；美联储纪要偏鹰，年内或再加息。 最后聊两句：昨天"油价飙涨吓崩盘"，今天"一句话V回来"，纯消息市。你们觉得820@adamscochran Throws out a chilling speculation for the market: there is a possibility that the U.S. Treasury is selling tens of billions of seized Bitcoin to ease pressure on the Treasury market.
But note, he said "non-zero chance," without providing evidence.
This speculation is provocative because it links two things: on one hand, the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields and increasing fiscal financing pressure, with the Treasury recently expanding long-term Treasury buybacks; on the other hand, the U.S. government indeed holds a large amount of Bitcoin obtained through confiscation.
From a financial logic perspective, "selling coins to buy bonds" is not hard to understand: BTC is an asset the government already owns, while Treasury bonds are liabilities that need to be continuously rolled over. If this were done, essentially it would be converting one asset into cash to alleviate the liability pressure on the other side.
But currently, there is no evidence proving the Treasury is operating this way. The policy direction of the U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve is actually to retain the BTC held by the government long-term.
So this is more like a market conjecture rather than a fact.
What is truly worth noting is: when BTC plunges, the market always looks for an explanation of "who is selling."
Such explanations do not even need to be confirmed; as long as someone believes them, they can further amplify the panic.Every time the market crashes hard, the second largest always gets hit the hardest.
In this round of decline, $ETH's liquidation volume directly exceeded BTC's, and I almost got liquidated too!
During the early morning drop, the entire market saw about $1.1 to $1.2 billion in 24-hour liquidations, with ETH contributing $320 to $360 million, surpassing BTC; adjusted for size, the leverage damage ETH took was several times that of BTC.
Yesterday, I placed a long order at 2525.
I originally thought 2500 was a key round number; after falling from 2700 a few days ago, I expected a rebound here.
But the price directly dropped to around 2406, leaving my position just a hair above the liquidation line. Fortunately, it has now bounced back near 2500.
Whether 2500 can be effectively broken through is critical.
In the last round, it was hammered down from 2725, and the rebound couldn't even hold 2560. Spot ETFs were continuously flowing out, the Fed remained hawkish, oil prices and US Treasury yields didn't ease, and risk assets lacked buying pressure. ETH, being high beta, shakes first when the market trembles.
So my judgment is:
If 2500 can't be effectively broken, longs that need to be cut will be cut.
Below that, 2400 to 2420 is last night's low, and around 2300 is a dense liquidation zone for large holders.
The lesson from the second largest is:
Under the same macro conditions, it always falls harder and liquidates louder. Surviving is more important than being right on direction. If 2500 can't be passed, I'll exit. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 🔥 October 9 $DOGE: It did rise today, turning positive +2.8%
But we need to separate the two accounts
Today: Up, oversold recovery, bounced back from 0.081
This week: Still terrible. 7 days -10%, dropped from 0.0954 on October 6 down to 0.081, a 15% drop
Why did it turn positive today?
Market sentiment recovery + 0.081 is a 14-month low, whales indeed showed signs of accumulation around here (increased holdings by about 200 million coins one week after breaking below 0.08). Plus, the DogecoinVM mainnet alpha launch (claimed to be 300x faster) gave some buzz.
But the quality of the rebound is questionable, the three spikes remain
Whales are also reducing: wallets holding 1 million–100 million coins combined reduced by 100 million coins since Tuesday—there’s both inflow and outflow, not a unanimous bullish view
Moving averages all overhead: 100-day 0.086, 50-day 0.088, 200-day 0.093, none reclaimed
RSI only 40, MACD still below zero line—this is a recovery, not a reversal
In short: this bullish candle is an oversold rebound, not a trend reversal. 0.0874 is the watershed; only above it counts as real recovery; if it can’t hold 0.084, it will continue to consolidate. Meme coins are highly volatile and fall harder, so only very small positions should be tried, not value investing. The real direction awaits the October 14 CPI.
$BTC $ETH So far, I've gained 3700R, and after waking up this morning, I withdrew another 1500R.
In total, I've withdrawn 12000R, and there are still 10000R left in the account.
I know where my comfort zone is.
If the principal is too low and the volatility is small, I try to speculate.
If the principal is too high, opening a 5% position makes me uneasy with even slight fluctuations, causing me to miss profits and stubbornly hold losses.
From a little over 1000U to 2000U, there's not much psychological burden, so I can place orders and sleep.
As I said yesterday, I'm bullish on BTC and ETH.
I bought at the previous high before the last volatility, and the current returns are okay for now.
I won't say much about altcoins; it all depends on the market makers' mentality, and candlestick charts are completely useless. $XAU perpetual contract's previous funding rate has deeply turned negative, with shorts excessively crowded, making it very easy to trigger extreme emotional reversals and short squeezes. The opening logic is precisely to capture this extreme imbalance, bottom-fishing accurately at 4130.9 to open a 100x long position.
The current mark price is 4195.6, with the long position floating profit at 156.62%. As the price rises, short covering further boosts the upward slope, and the funding rate gradually returns to normal.
Although the trend is strong, the profit-taking is substantial, and a technical pullback may occur at any time. It is recommended to use a trailing stop to take profits, setting the defense line at 4170 to let profits run while protecting gains. Contract trading carries extremely high risk. #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% $CL $ZEC A reminder to all friends, Coinbase will suspend trading of $BAL and $TNSR on November 9th. If you hold these two tokens, don't ignore it and don't panic. First, you have to acknowledge that liquidity will inevitably be affected. What you should do now is to confirm the withdrawal time and supported networks. Don't wait until the last day to transfer, don't send assets to unknown addresses, and don't wait until the official delisting to take action $PUMP has bought back and burned over $400M of its own tokens, yet it sits roughly 83% below its September high. $ENA promises 95% of net revenue for buybacks, but only after USDe supply hits $7.5B, and it's still under $5B, down from a $15B peak. $UB has just 2.5B of 10B tokens circulating, so 75% of it is still ahead. Three tokens, three supply stories, and none of them guarantee demand, which is the one thing a burn or buyback cannot create. Which of these three needs demand to show up first?I reflect on myself; I always profit during market fluctuations but lose during trends.
Continuous profits easily lead to blind confidence, coupled with loss aversion, making it hard to control position size.
Each time I profit for a week, then the drawdown returns to the starting point, or even results in liquidation.
Respect the market, control drawdowns, and only trade in markets you are familiar with.
If you don't die, you will rise.
The live trading has started, mutually supervising with all you genius traders.
Let's encourage each other. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
—Antenna Baby
October 9, 2026$ETH Ethereum current price around 2500 is the boundary between bulls and bears, standing on the edge
Previously, it dropped from 2800 to 2357, a 400-point fall, now climbing back to 2500, bulls are reluctant to give up, but the EMA15/30/60 above is getting higher and higher, pressing down hard
To turn things around, first climb over the wall
2-hour chart: MACD golden cross, red bars pulled to 8.5, bears retreating, bulls testing, the downtrend has indeed eased. But the Bollinger middle band at 2519 is not reclaimed, the rebound is just a false fire, don’t mistake it for a reversal
15-minute chart: price stands above EMA30/60, hugging the upper band at 2501.7, looks strong, but MACD red bars shrink to 0.45, TD Up9 short-term overbought, high-level stagnation, could flash back anytime. Support at 2490
Long position:
Enter on a pullback to 2490 without breaking, stop loss at 2460, target 2519/2546
Short position: Enter on a rebound at 2519 with stagnation, stop loss at 2540, target 2457/2421
Stop loss is life, breaking it means admitting a mistake
Don’t fall in love with your trades, control your hands, guard your lines
For reference only #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% Many people saw $BTC price bounce back from 80,350 all the way to 82,500 and thought last night's big wick wiped out the leverage on the vehicle, but after reviewing the data, I just feel a headache — this vehicle barely lightened at all.
Last night's two 4-hour big bearish candles slammed from 83,200 straight down to 80,350, generating over 5.5 billion USDT in trading volume, shaking the ground. So how much position was wiped out? OKX's contract OI only dropped from 31,400 BTC to 29,600 BTC, a net reduction of about 1,800 BTC, less than 6%!
Even more ridiculous is the long-short account ratio. During the dump wick, not only were the bottom-fishers not scared off, but a bunch of people caught the falling knife, pushing the account ratio from 1.64 stubbornly up to 1.75. Even now that the price has bounced back to 82,500, it still clings tightly at 1.65.
In the end, the big money that needed to exit has exited, but the retail investors on board haven't cut losses at all; they're all holding on halfway up or at low levels, biting the bullet and waiting to break even. No wonder it’s so hard to push up during the day today. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $ETH $DOGE Just now, SpaceX (under Musk) announced an agreement with Grain Management to acquire 800 MHz of low-frequency spectrum covering the entire United States (up to 14 MHz paired spectrum) to advance Starlink Mobile. Musk himself stated on X that this is "the last key piece of spectrum needed to provide complete mobile coverage in the US."
After the announcement, the three major carriers' stock prices dropped sharply in after-hours trading:
AT&T: down about 6.5%–7.7%
Verizon: down about 5.8%–7%
T-Mobile: down about 6.6%–7.6%
Meanwhile, SpaceX's own stock price rose about 2–3% in after-hours trading.
This marks a critical step for Starlink to officially transition from "satellite internet" to a full-featured mobile communication operator, triggering concentrated market concerns over traditional telecom stocks.🤑$BNB short trend continues, opened short at 770.6 down to 743.7, +174.53%. It's not just a single bearish candle; the high point has been moving down from 770, the low point has been broken, and the rebound is weak—a typical bearish structure. When large market caps retreat, even support can't hold, and chasing high turns into selling pressure above. Don't rush to guess the bottom; 743.7 is just the current marker price; before the structure reverses, any rebound looks more like a short-selling opportunity. If you have a 50x position, secure profits first, move your stop loss accordingly, don't let big gains turn into a pullback. If you don't have a position, don't catch the fall; wait until it stands back in the key zone. $BTC $ETH 📉 Is the BTC pullback not over yet? JackYi is eyeing $79,000 and doesn't rule out further declines!
On October 9, Liquid Capital founder JackYi stated that after Bitcoin lost the $82,000 level, the next focus should be on $79,000; if it continues to weaken, support around $75,000 should be watched. It should be noted that this is his personal judgment and does not mean the market will definitely fall to these levels.
What’s more noteworthy is that although he expects a pullback, he does not choose to short but insists on waiting patiently for opportunities during the bull market pullback. Simply put, a bearish outlook does not necessarily mean opening short positions; truly mature trading is not about forcing trades just to make money.
**The bottom is not guessed but waited for the market to reveal.** The more chaotic the market, the more you need to control your impulses and not let one rash move wipe out previous profits.🔥$BTC The short position from the Air Force directly pierced the main artery.
Within 24 hours globally, $1.09 billion was liquidated, with long positions liquidated at $940 million and short positions at $160 million. This time, a large batch of longs was mainly liquidated, causing a slight suppression.
$ETH had the largest liquidation amount, totaling $345 million, accounting for 31.53%, with longs liquidated at $280 million and shorts at $61.33 million. The price fluctuated upward from a low of 2405 to a high of 2501. Although the price rose, volume remained low, and it couldn't break through the resistance at 2500, making it easy to fall back. I am still holding my short position; currently, a small portion of profit has been given back, which is acceptable.
$BTC had a total liquidation of $263 million, accounting for 24.06%, with longs liquidated at $220 million and shorts at $42.5 million. The price dropped to the 80,000 level, then after a day of consolidation, it approached 83,000 again. The price is now fluctuating around 82,500, with clear resistance that it cannot break through. I believe the rebound is a good opportunity to short.
$ZEC's liquidation amount is not very large, but its price volatility is the most intense. It dropped from a high of 1350 to a low of 1111, then started to rebound today, rising to 1226, a 10% increase. Both longs and shorts are now openly competing.
The above are just my personal market insights and do not constitute any trading advice.Anthropic released Claude Haiku 5.5, and the most noteworthy aspect is not just the addition of another model, but that it has directly reduced the price for small models to $0.1 per million input tokens and $0.5 per million output tokens, representing about a 90% price drop within 100K tokens compared to the previous generation.
At the same time, OSWorld 2.1 official tests reached 72.4%, higher than GPT-6 Luna's 48.9%, and it also added adjustable reasoning strength, a 1 million token context window, and up to 128K token output.
In the era of Agents, this change is more important than "just another model."
In the future, a complex Agent cannot call the most expensive model at every step. Complex judgments are handled by large models, while classification, extraction, summarization, browser operations, and many subtasks are assigned to cheaper models to reduce overall costs.
Therefore, model competition is shifting from "who is smarter" to "how much does it cost to complete a task."
However, don't simply interpret this as a 90% reduction in actual costs. Haiku 5.5 uses a new tokenizer, which may consume more tokens for the same text; beyond 100K tokens, it also enters a higher price tier. Anthropic itself estimates the average actual cost reduction to be about 75%.🚨 Strategy Buys BTC — But Are Shareholders Getting More?
₿ Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases grab headlines, but two metrics deserve attention:Bitcoin per shareandBTC Yield.
📊 Hypothetical example:
BTC holdings +10%
Diluted shares +20%
Bitcoin per share falls about 8.3%.
More BTC on the balance sheet doesn’t automatically mean more BTC exposure per share. Debt and preferred-stock claims also matter to common shareholders.
Don’t just count the coins. Watch the denominator, dilution, and capital Since September, 13 intense battles with $ZEC, the queen shorted again 2 hours ago!
Currently holding 3,356 3x short positions, valued at $4.11 million, entry price 1221; just took profit 14 hours ago earning $545,000.
13 trades with a 61.5% win rate (8 wins, 5 losses), total profit $216,000, shorts account for as much as 84.6%.$CT perpetual contract's previous funding rate was high, causing heavy costs for longs and easy liquidation. Opened a 20x short at 0.3512 on the reverse side, current mark price is 0.3072, floating profit 250.56%.
Sentiment turns to panic, funding rate returns to normal. Trend is bearish, recommend moving stop loss up to 0.32 to protect gains. Contract risk is extremely high, pay attention to position control. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC $ZEC The new public chain narrative cools down, and the $BZ short position has steadily secured over 40% profit.
As an emerging public chain sector token, it initially rebounded driven by expectations of ecosystem launches and mining enthusiasm. However, subsequent on-chain data growth fell short of market expectations, ecosystem progress was slow, and after the positive expectations were gradually realized, funds began to take profits. Coupled with the recent overall market weakness, the new public chain sector collectively saw valuation corrections, with smaller market cap tokens showing greater volatility and more significant declines. Technically, multiple attempts to break the 106 resistance level on the four-hour chart failed, volume continued to shrink, a bearish divergence was confirmed, and after breaking the neckline, the bearish trend was officially established.
I entered a short position around 104.79, currently yielding 142.66%. I have already taken partial profits in batches, securing most of the gains, while keeping the remaining base position with a trailing stop loss to continue holding, aiming to play the support area around the previous low below. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 MET at $0.45, are you going to catch it?
Yesterday it surged from 0.33 to 0.55, you chased in at 0.48, and today you wake up to 0.45 — down 2% in 24 hours. You think it’s just a small pullback? That spike at 0.55 might be the peak of this pulse.
First glance: it skyrocketed, but now it’s starting to give back.
MET is up +36% in the last 7 days, doubled in 30 days, with a market cap of $250 million, $34.2 million protocol fees in 30 days, and $7 billion trading volume — the data looks so good you want to go all in. But look at the candlesticks: October 5 at 0.30 → October 7 at 0.33 → spike at 0.55 on October 8 → today’s low at 0.423, what you see is 0.45. This is a pullback after a big bullish candle, not a new platform stabilization. The daily MACD momentum is still there, but volume is much smaller than the huge volume on the 8th — all technical signals are shouting one thing: don’t catch the knife halfway up the mountain.
First thing: DLMM Pro is good news, but you’re late to buy.
Around October 6, Meteora announced DLMM Pro, volume expanded on the 8th, price surged from 0.33 to 0.55. This is a typical "news-driven pulse."
But today? No second product announcement.
Now 0.45 is stuck between 0.42 and 0.50, neither up nor down. This is the most uncomfortable position — those who chased high are trapped, those who are out don’t dare to enter.
Second thing: fees increased, but it doesn’t concern you.
$34.2 million protocol fees in 30 days, double the previous 30 days, with $7 billion volume. Sounds like MET is about to take off?
Let me translate into plain language: these fees don’t go into MET holders’ pockets.
You’re not buying cash flow, you’re buying "a little share of staking rewards" and "airdrop expectations." In other words, you’re buying the narrative, not the yield.
Third thing: airdrop window closes on October 21, selling pressure is on the way.
LP Stimulus Season 2 is about 20 million tokens, 2% of total supply, with a claim deadline of October 21. As the deadline approaches, concentrated selling pressure is likely.
Yesterday contract positions increased by 142% in one day, with rates once at -0.44% — the short squeeze has already run a good distance, it’s not accelerating, it’s retreating.
Bull vs. bear, you decide:
On one side:
DLMM Pro narrative is still fermenting, Solana ecosystem heat hasn’t cooled
30-day protocol fees doubled, fundamentals supported by real volume
7-day +36%, 30-day doubled, short-term trend upward
On the other side:
0.55 spike pulled back, volume shrank, pulse may be over
Fees don’t go directly to holders, valuation relies on expectations
October 21 airdrop window approaching, selling pressure imminent
BTC at 83,000 lower bound, Brent at 102, minutes hawkish — market unstable
Key level 0.45, only 3 cents above the death line at 0.42.
Above: 0.48 (price you saw yesterday, now supply) → 0.50 (round number) → 0.55 (spike on the 8th)
Below: 0.423 (today’s low) → 0.40 (psychological level) → 0.33 (launch platform)
Trading strategy
Aggressive:
At around 0.45, very light position max, stop loss at 0.418. First target 0.48, second target 0.50. Exit at 0.475 first. Don’t be greedy, this is not a trend trade.
Conservative:
Wait for 0.38-0.40 to consider, stop loss at 0.35. If it doesn’t reach, stay out. Staying out is not missing out, it’s discipline.
Breakout:
Only consider chasing if volume supports a stable break above 0.50 and pullback doesn’t break 0.45, target 0.55. 0.63 is not a target. No volume break above 0.50, don’t talk about 0.55.
Bearish:
At 0.48-0.50 weak rebound, very light short position, stop loss 0.515, targets 0.42, 0.40. Don’t short blindly near 0.42.
Positioning iron rules:
Single trade risk no more than 1% of total capital, leverage recommended no more than 2x. This thing can go from 0.33 to 0.55 in one day, and also smash back from 0.55 to 0.33.
MET now is like you chasing high yesterday —
Looking at the 0.55 spike, feeling you missed out on getting rich fast. Now at 0.45, afraid of getting cut at the bottom. You want both ends, but can’t catch either.
It’s not that MET is bad, it’s that you always FOMO at the spike and panic during the pullback.
$BTC $ETH $MET AI revenue is growing. So is the bill to power it.
OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate reportedly approached $50B at the end of September, per the Financial Times. That is below a previously reported ~$68B, but the higher number included gross revenue from partners.
Different reporting bases do not mean revenue suddenly fell. A run rate annualizes recent sales, not revenue already earned over a full year.
Can demand keep up with the infrastructure behind it?
· OpenAI’s investor update reportedly showed 77% growth in its overall run rate during Q3
· Its enterprise run rate reportedly grew 107%, indicating revenue momentum, not necessarily profitability
· OpenAI and Broadcom target a 10GW deployment of custom AI accelerators, beginning in H2 2026 and finishing by the end of 2029
· That is planned capacity, not compute already online
· OpenAI published early results for Jalapeño, its chip developed with Broadcom, citing better throughput per watt and lower latency in selected tests
· Broadcom is reportedly in early talks to arrange more than $50B in financing tied to OpenAI’s custom chip purchases
This is where the AI trade gets harder.
Revenue growth is strong. But the cost side is moving fast: chips, power, data centers, custom silicon and financing.
Nvidia and Broadcom shares fell on October 8 as investors weighed the revenue report against broader pressure.
The next phase is about whether compute capacity stays utilized enough to justify the capital behind it. Early chip benchmarks can help the story, but they do not prove returns at full scale.
For crypto markets, the relevance is broader risk sentiment. Investors may reassess exposure across asset classes as they weigh AI revenue against infrastructure spending, but AI stocks and crypto do not move in lockstep. That makes revenue quality, compute utilization and financing terms worth watching without treating them as a prediction for digital asset prices.
Which signal would you watch first: revenue quality, compute utilization or financing risk?
#OpenAIRevenueVsSpend $TIA completed bottoming and turnover around 0.4843, with on-chain data detecting large chips flowing out from exchanges, showing clear signs of whale accumulation. After entering a 50x long position accordingly, the mark price quickly surged to 0.5097, with an unrealized profit of 262.23%. $CT
Ecosystem bullish expectations continue to ferment, and spot buying remains strong. The large short-term gains may easily trigger profit-taking pressure. $ZEC
It is recommended to move the stop-loss line up to the 0.50 whole number level to lock in most profits, while holding the base position to contest resistance ahead at 0.53. #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% Just saw a heartbreaking data point: BTC spot ETF had a single-day net outflow of $487 million, the largest outflow in nearly three and a half months.
Brothers, this sell-off isn't without reason.
On October 7, the US BTC spot ETF net outflow was $487 million, with BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC, and ARK's ARKB pulling out $208 million, $105 million, and $102 million respectively; all 12 products experienced net outflows. What's more troubling is that the Federal Reserve minutes showed most officials believe there may be more rate hikes this year, with US Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil prices all hovering at high levels.
The double whammy of funding and macro factors pushed BTC down from 87,000 to around 80,000.
But today the market showed a signal—BTC has rebounded to around 83,000, up 1.92%. This indicates that after the panic selling, some funds have started to enter and buy.
Honestly, the ETF outflow needs to be viewed separately. In the short term, institutions are indeed reducing positions, but JPMorgan estimates that the overall inflow into the crypto market this year is still $50 billion. This outflow looks more like a phase of portfolio adjustment under macro pressure, not a trend of withdrawal.
The key is, after every big drop, the real opportunity emerges. Panic selling at the bottom and chasing highs during rebounds is always the most costly rhythm for retail investors.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $ETH hourly chart shows a rebound that looks fierce, but when you check the hourly trading volume, it's clear that it's all retail investors bottom-fishing. There's not even a slightly large volume on the hourly chart—it's a volume-less rise 📈 What is this?
This is a bull trap, making retail investors buy more at the bottom, then a sharp drop follows, hanging retail investors out to dry 🌲
This is not a bull market, it's not a situation where a crash today means a surge tomorrow. Bottom-fishing now, I can only say, is truly miraculous #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% $BTC 🔥 Double negative factors strike together! FOMC hawkish stance combined with a surge in oil prices, is the crypto market under pressure or can it rebound?
Two pieces of news form a compounded bearish pressure, which is the core suppressive force in the current market. First, the September FOMC minutes show that most officials support continued rate hikes, directly shattering market hopes for rate cuts. Tightening liquidity expectations push up U.S. Treasury yields and strengthen the dollar. As high-risk assets, crypto valuations will continue to be suppressed; second, the decline in Strait of Hormuz navigation and a 4% surge in oil prices will raise inflation expectations, providing the Fed with reasons to continue raising rates, effectively solidifying hawkish expectations. These two bearish factors reinforce each other. There is only a slight hedging logic here: geopolitical tensions in the Middle East bring a small amount of safe-haven buying, causing a brief pulse rebound, but this safe-haven capital is very limited and lacks sustainability, making it difficult to reverse the overall weak trend. In terms of coin differentiation, BTC has a large market cap and relatively mild volatility; ETH is more elastic and tends to outperform Bitcoin in a bearish environment; ZEC, a sentiment-driven small coin, experiences the sharpest sell-offs during panic selling. Short-term market forecast: today leans toward weak consolidation, rebounds are emotional repairs, with priority on rising then falling, the overall trend under pressure downward; only if Strait navigation quickly recovers, oil prices quickly fall back, or Fed officials collectively turn dovish, will there be a sustained rebound. Currently, the probability of such positive conditions is low.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $BCH stagnates near 296.5, with large whale addresses on-chain continuously transferring significant chips to exchanges, causing a sharp increase in selling pressure expectations. Following the trend, opened a 50x short position; current mark price is 281.1, with an unrealized profit of 259.69%.
Buy-side support is weak, and volume increase without price rise reveals the main force's intention to offload. There may be a short-term oversold rebound, but the height is limited.
It is recommended to move the stop-loss line up to 290 to lock in most profits, while holding the base position to play the 275 support. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $BTC $SOL Don't even think about bottom-fishing $ETH now! Can 2400 hold?
The bulls have been liquidated continuously; describing this wave as a bloodbath is no exaggeration.
Why still bearish in the short term?
Because ETH's support has turned into resistance, the pattern has shifted bearish.
ETH has broken below the key 2500 level, with short-term momentum controlled by sellers.
The macro environment is suppressive: rising oil prices, high US Treasury yields, ongoing rate hike expectations, and risk assets overall under pressure. High-volatility assets like ETH are the first to be hit.
Plus, with the weekend approaching, liquidity is relatively weak, and without big money entering, ETH will weaken further!
Key levels to watch: first look at 2400 below; if it doesn't hold, further downside is possible. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC Defense Line Under Macro Bloodletting: Deleveraging Game After Daily Breakdown
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
The Fed's rate hike cycle continues, and global liquidity tightening remains unchanged. Funds keep withdrawing from high-risk assets, with BTC plunging from a high of 87,374 to 80,351, fully showing the macro "bloodletting effect."
On-chain and Market Analysis:
1. Daily Breakdown: Has fallen below MA10 (84,136) and MA20 (84,074), moving averages diverging downward, trend weakening.
2. Deleveraging Repair: On the 1-hour level, volume shrinks near 82,488, a sharp drop clearing many high-leverage long positions.
3. Liquidity Dilemma: The rebound relies on short covering rather than spot buying. On-chain data shows whales only slightly absorbing between 80,000-82,000, with no sign of trend reversal.
Macro Judgment and Strategy:
Liquidity has not turned; the market struggles to rally alone. Short-term focus on 80,000 support: if broken, further decline; if stabilized, maintain 80,000-84,000 range.
Strategy-wise, cash flow is king. Avoid blindly heavy bottom-fishing; dollar-cost average spot purchases in batches, keep contract leverage under 5x. Patiently wait for the macro turning point.
Personal opinion, not investment advice. 法老直接说，这玩意儿比之前那些“代币化股票”靠谱多了，不是给你一张价格体验卡，是给你一张真正的股东入场券。 Securitize这次在Solana上首发了12只美股代币，包括苹果、微软、英伟达、谷歌、特斯拉、Meta、亚马逊、奈飞、Circle、Strategy和Palantir。核心卖点就一个——每枚代币由一股真实的底层股票1:1全额支持，你不是买了个“价格追踪器”，你是持有了证券权益，分红、投票权该有的都有。 这跟之前OKX那种代币化股票最大的区别在哪？ 之前很多离岸产品，你买的只是个“价格包装”，背后是一堆衍生品拼出来的价格敞口。Securitize这套是走《统一商法典》第8条的证券权益结构，底层股票托管在它自己的持牌券商那里，而且不借出，不搞再抵押。用CEO的话说：“代币化股票不该只给投资者一个追踪股价的包装，而应该把真正的所有权体验带上链”。 交易怎么玩？ 初期在Solana上通过Securitize自己的持牌券商平台交易，用USDC结算，Jump Trading提供流动性，先跑美股延长交易时段，后续计划推24/7。而且这12只代币预计When evaluating public chain projects, you can't just look at what the whitepaper says.
Take ACO as an example. The whitepaper's planned direction includes not only the underlying public chain but also modules like DEX, DApp, social content, cross-chain, and community governance.
For these modules to form a complete ecosystem, it involves not only technical development but also product experience, user adoption, and synergy among applications.
Therefore, when researching such projects, you can separate a few questions:
1. How is the development progress of the underlying infrastructure?
2. Are the planned applications actually implemented?
3. Are there real users and genuine usage demands?
4. Is the subsequent roadmap advancing according to the public plan?
The whitepaper can help us understand the project's design concept, but ultimately it needs to be verified by actual progress.
The above content is for project research communication only and does not constitute investment advice. #霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4%
Oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz say one thing but their actions speak louder.
According to Kpler data, crude oil transit through the strait dropped 27% from the previous week's high, at least 10.1 million barrels per day. On October 6, only 7 commercial vessels passed through, the lowest since July 23. Trump said the US and Iran are having productive talks and that there will be no attack on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, but the blockade on Iran will remain. Iran continues to threaten to restrict certain shipping lanes.
This is a typical case of negotiating while fighting. No matter how diplomatic the words sound, tankers dare not pass, so supply remains tight. On top of that, US Gulf of Mexico oil fields have shut down preventively due to a hurricane, worsening the situation. On October 8, Brent crude closed up 4.1% at $104.28.
For BTC, this is clear suppression. High oil prices push up inflation expectations, keeping the urgency for Fed rate hikes high. US Treasury yields remain above 5%, keeping the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets high. BTC has now dropped to around 82,000, with resistance between 83,500 and 84,500 above, and key support at 80,000 below.
But from another perspective, the more fragile energy supply is, the harder it is to root out global inflation. In the end, either inflation dilutes debt, or implicit easing provides a backstop. Whichever path, US dollar credit is being consumed. BTC, as a non-sovereign hard asset, benefits from this. Short-term pain, long-term gain.
$ZEC $BZ $CL $XRP family, I'm back again. Yes, the man who held the position to the lowest point, but this time I'm not here to show off. I'm here to reflect! I don't understand technology or K-lines; I make buy orders based on my own feelings. Family, there is too much and too mixed information in the market. How do we distinguish it? When the market started to fall, most people were shouting to short, but I didn't listen and chose to hold because I thought it was just a pullback. When it actually rebounded last night, I exited halfway because I posted my order in the group and a short-term active trader said, "Short now, it's about to waterfall!" I actually wavered! This caused my wallet to be locked with half the funds, or even more! I'm not angry about the loss now; I just want to ask myself, if I have my own ideas, why can't I stick to them, even if it means paying a price without fear! If I like to listen to others, then why not listen from the start? Why listen when I'm about to break even? Is this human nature, or just lack of experience? I think this is the biggest stumbling block on the trader's path!$SOL is now holding its breath, with volume dropping to the lowest level in this wave.
On the daily chart, it has fallen for two consecutive days with increasing volume. On the 7th, it dropped 3.7%, and on the 8th, it dropped 5.8%, with trading volumes of 596M and 696M respectively, growing day by day—this pattern of "narrowing decline but expanding volume" usually signals the final phase of the main force pulling and withdrawing, gradually offloading floating chips. The 4-hour candle was the most aggressive, dropping 4% at 12 o'clock with a volume of 239M, the largest volume in the entire wave that day, smashing the downtrend all at once.
What’s really worth watching is today’s action. The price didn’t fall, hovering around 110 all day, but the trading volume plummeted sharply to 112M, less than 20% of yesterday’s volume, with 30-minute candles only showing 5-10M each. After a volume-driven sell-off, followed by a volume drought sideways consolidation, there are two completely opposite interpretations: the drying up of selling pressure could indicate a bottom, but if it’s just that no one dares to buy or sell, then the low volume could also be a mid-break before a new round of decline.
No conclusions yet, because SOL is still stuck mid-mountain—the resistance at 115.7 is a wall from the past day, and above 123 is a dense area of trapped positions from September. It hasn’t even reclaimed 116 yet, so it’s a bit early to talk about a bottom.
So rather than betting that the low volume is a bottom, it’s better to watch how it stands next. If it rallies back above 116 with volume, the low volume sideways consolidation is a buildup; but if it stays sideways here and suddenly breaks down with volume, then exiting is the only option. Low volume itself doesn’t lie; what lies is when you mistake it for a bottom.After taking profits, I rebuilt positions; today is mainly about "dragging things out"! 😴
Main text:
Brothers, after taking profits on previous trades, the new positions opened today are a bit frustrating.
The market is neither up nor down, and the account overall is fluctuating repeatedly between break-even and slight losses.
$DOGE DOGE: 20x isolated margin, opened at 0.08529, currently just breaking even. The dog coin is playing dead here, waiting for it to pick a direction; if it breaks upward, I'll add to the position.
$ETH ETH: 20x isolated margin, opened at 2500, slight loss of 0.3%. The 2500 level for Ethereum is very critical; as long as it holds, a rebound is possible.
$BTC $BTC: 20x full margin long, opened at 82510, slight loss of 0.7%. Bitcoin is consolidating around 82500, testing patience.
To sum up: the current state is "if the enemy doesn't move, I don't move." A market that neither gains nor loses tests the mindset the most; as long as the liquidation price is far away, I won't panic. As long as the green hills remain, there's no fear of running out of firewood. I'll wait for the US market tonight to see if it can provide some strength!
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #以太坊草案EIP-8363引争议 $BTC
4.33 million BTC are lying in bare-naked addresses
V God just warned
These people don't even change wallets?
Damn
Brothers
Some people just don't fear death
4.33 million BTC
Accounts for 20.6% of total supply
Lying in reused addresses
At 86000 each
Worth about 370 billion USD
These addresses have initiated at least one transaction
ECDSA public keys have long been exposed on the chain
What is address reuse?
Normal wallets recommend changing to a new address
Every time you receive money
To protect privacy
Address reuse means using the same address repeatedly to receive and send coins
Once a transaction occurs
The public key is directly revealed
Although coins won't be lost immediately
It plants a long-term hidden risk
V God just warned yesterday
AI may significantly weaken cryptography within two years
ECDSA might be broken faster than expected
Today's data just slapped us in the face
Once your wallet address is used once
The public key is permanently soldered on the chain
Hackers can't do anything to you now
Doesn't mean they can't in two years
Right now, privacy is basically bare naked
Repeated transfers from the same address
Everyone on the chain can link all your funds and transaction records
It's easy to pinpoint your fund size and transaction behavior
If elliptic curve cracking becomes possible in the future
Then BTC with exposed public keys
Will be the first to be sacrificed
So brothers
We small retail investors
Though we don't have much money
Still try to develop the habit
Change to a new address every time you receive funds
Don't repeatedly use the same address to receive coins
Protect on-chain privacy
If you hold large amounts in old addresses
You can also migrate them in batches to new addresses
To mitigate risks Different rises, different fates: A capital profile of three coins 📊
A bullish candle is just the surface; the direction of money is the real script.
BTC: ETF outflow of about $91.72 million in a single day, but still net inflow on the weekly chart. Some are taking profits, but institutional base holdings remain untouched; selling pressure comes from floating profits, support comes from allocation, and pricing power is still in the hands of institutions. 🏦
ETH: ETF outflow of about $58.29 million in a single day, with continuous bleeding recently. The problem is not the story, but the absence of incremental funds. Without new money, rebounds easily turn into follow-ups, making it hard to lead the rise. 💧
ZEC: No spot ETF support, relying on sentiment, contracts, and short-term speculation. Explosions happen fast, pullbacks happen fast too; elasticity and risk are two sides of the same coin. 🎢
So the sequence can be simplified: BTC watches subscriptions/redemptions, ETH waits for inflows, ZEC observes hot and cold signals. Price is the effect, capital is the cause. Instead of guessing rises or falls, better to watch money flow. ⚠️ Personal observation, not investment advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#9月FOMC会议纪要公布在即，是否继续加息？ #ETH现货ETF连续三周净流入 Nearly 200,000 people liquidated, with total liquidations across the network approaching 1.4 billion!
Is this rebound a reversal or just a desperate escape wave?
$BTC dipped to a low of 80351 last night,
currently recovering and rebounding to 82500, with only a slight 1.8% increase in 24 hours.
Key core data shows institutional trends.
On October 8, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net outflow of 484.9 million,
marking the largest single-day exodus since June.
BlackRock's IBIT alone had a single-day outflow as high as 207.7 million.
The main driving force behind the rise from 57750 to 87239 in this round was the incremental ETF funds.
Now, the main funds are not only not returning but are accelerating their withdrawal.
Industry consensus is clear:
Only when ETFs have continuous single-day net inflows exceeding 300 million for multiple days
can institutional sentiment be considered truly warming up.
Looking at the market, the bears remain strong.
Nearly 200,000 liquidations in 24 hours, with amounts nearing 1.4 billion.
Long liquidations account for over 90%, with high-position longs continuously being wiped out.
Daily moving averages are all diverging bearish,
with a maximum drop of over 8% from the high of 87239,
this round's correction is very weak, leaving huge room for upward movement
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
$ETH $ZEC $STRK This long position finally paid off. From 0.06159 pushed to 0.06952, +643.77% fully maxed out. It stayed sideways at a low level for so long, many people exited early, but I kept watching—support around 0.0615 was very obvious, every time it dropped there were buyers, volume wasn’t large but the base was rising. What really confirmed it for me was the small-scale platform breakout with volume; once short stop-losses triggered, the trend extended nonstop. Now with profits in hand, don’t get carried away with 50x, first secure your stop-loss to protect capital and let the trend run. Don’t chase sudden spikes without volume, consider adding only if the key support zone holds on pullbacks. $BTC $ETH Whale strikes again❗XXAntiWar opens another $4.11 million ZEC short position, what signal is behind the 61.5% win rate?
On-chain big players are targeting ZEC again!
According to monitoring, well-known trader @XXAntiWar opened a short position 2 hours ago, currently holding a 3x leveraged short of 3356.65 ZEC, valued at about $4.11 million, with an entry price of $1221.43.
Previously, she just took profit on a short trade earning $545,000. Since September, she has made 13 trades with 8 wins and 5 losses, accumulating a profit of $216,000, with 84.6% of trades being shorts—can you keep up with this trading rhythm?
📉 Key levels analysis:
● Resistance above: Short-term rebound resistance is at 1220 - 1230 (right around her current entry price). If broken, strong resistance lies at 1280 - 1300 (previous high concentration area).
● Support below: On pullback, watch the 1200 - 1205 buying concentration zone. If broken, the next test is the 1180 round number. In extreme cases, it may dip to 1150 liquidation risk zone.
💡 Trading idea:
Whale continuously shorting with high win rate backing, short-term bearish sentiment is strong. But ZEC has been volatile recently due to ETF expectations and network upgrades. It is recommended to short lightly with strict stop loss above 1230. Do not heavily bet on direction!Wow……
$LITE CEO publicly stated on Bloomberg today:
Lumentum is "almost sold out until 2029."
From their perspective, it is "completely sold out, with no end in sight."
The demand visibility from hyperscale cloud service providers has already extended to 2030 and 2031.
This has a huge impact on the entire photonics sector,
especially for laser suppliers about to release capacity—
such as $SIVE, Sumitomo Electric, and $AAOI.
A crazy supply bottleneck is truly unfolding.