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A large outflow from ETFs, the simplest explanation is "Grayscale's high fees, funds just switching products." But this time, looking into the details, that explanation doesn't hold up well.
Farside data shows that on October 7, the total net outflow of US BTC spot ETFs was about $485 million. The outflow wasn't just from GBTC: IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB also saw redemptions, with IBIT having the largest outflow that day. Multiple products going negative together means you can't lightly attribute the total outflow to the same batch of money just switching accounts.
This is more alarming than just looking at the amount. However, the data doesn't tell us who each holder is, nor whether the redemptions were for hedging, taking profits, or other asset rebalancing. Simply shouting "institutions collectively fleeing" is also just inserting drama into the spreadsheet.
I am willing to acknowledge the value of long-term buying, but I don't like thinking of "institutional funds" as a faith-based position that will never regret. Legitimate accounts also have risk budgets and will retreat. What we need to watch next is whether inflows can cover these product redemptions again, not picking one fund still buying to boost our confidence. When inflows are continuous, everyone watches the total; once outflows start, suddenly only partial data is discussed. This selective optimism is more harmful than a day's red or green.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 In this minutes, there is a detail that made me pause and read it twice: some officials have already raised their estimates of the neutral interest rate. Several other officials believe that the current policy rate does not significantly restrict the economy, or the restriction is very mild.
This is a bit painful. The market thinks money is expensive, but the Federal Reserve might feel it’s still not expensive enough. The minutes also mention that rising stock prices, narrow corporate credit spreads, and active financing continue to support financial conditions for growth. Focusing only on interest rate numbers and saying "the economy can't hold up" may not explain why companies are still borrowing and investing.
There is no dashboard that can read the neutral interest rate in real time, and officials’ estimates are not the final answer. But if they keep raising the reference point for judging tightness, investors who still take the interest rate levels from the last cycle as a bottoming basis are likely to face wave after wave of disappointment.
For the crypto market, I want to see real changes in financing demand and credit environment, not just the absence of a hawkish adjective in a sentence. Every time I hear "we’ve raised so much already, it should be over," I want to ask: is this evidence from the economy, or a wish from positions? After reading the minutes, at least for now, I can’t comfortably answer that.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Everyone knows about the $FIL halving, with a market cap of tens of billions in front of it, but this halving logic is completely different from Bitcoin's halving. This one halves slowly over 6 years, so in the short term, it’s not really a positive and doesn’t change the supply-demand relationship for the next few years. So it’s more like a tool to deceive retail investors and dump. The 23-hour non-stop trading of US stocks and the tokenization of US stocks are huge negatives for altcoins like FIL (a big drop is inevitable around the 15th).I came across an on-chain report saying Dogecoin "is no longer used."
Bitquery released a fairly serious report that dug through Dogecoin's data from the first block in 2013 up to now, spanning over a decade. The report states that the average daily active addresses in 2026 are only 46,700, down 41% from last year, the lowest since 2017.
Seeing this number, my first reaction was, it's over, no one is playing anymore.
But I kept reading. The same report says Dogecoin's mining difficulty is about seven times higher than at the beginning of 2022. Hashrate reflects how many machines are guarding this chain. While the number of users is decreasing, the number of machines securing the chain has actually increased sevenfold.
It's like a convenience store where fewer customers come in during the day, but the backroom security staff increased from one to seven. Would you say this store is going out of business or gearing up for something big?
The report also mentions a detail: 87.5% of the $DOGE transferred on-chain is "change," meaning money automatically returned by the UTXO model. This doesn't mean frequent buying and selling by people; it's the system running accounts in the background. What might real people be doing? Like me, buying and holding, then going to work.
Miners willing to add machines to guard this chain indicate they believe this chain is still worth protecting. BTC daily chart shows a pullback signal; the support in this segment will determine the short-term direction #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
The BTC daily chart is right in front of us. After the high of 87399, it started to pull back, and now the price is oscillating around 82716.
First, let's look at the key levels:
The first resistance above is 84000, which is the upper edge of the recent consolidation platform. If it can hold above this level again, the bulls have a chance to test the previous high of 87399.
The first support below is 80000, an important psychological and structural support for this rally. If it breaks down effectively, the correction space will further open; below that is a strong support at 76500.
Regarding indicators, RSI has already fallen from a high level to 42.64, showing a clear weakening of bullish momentum. OBV has not yet shown large-scale capital outflows, but the upward strength is no longer keeping pace with the price.
On the fundamentals side, the spot ETF continues to see large net outflows, with institutional funds cashing out at high levels and no longer adding positions. The market currently lacks new strong positive catalysts to push prices higher, so even slight negative news can easily trigger selling pressure, and intraday stop-loss sweeps will increase.
We are now in a high-level pullback phase, and the direction has not fully emerged. Do not chase longs below resistance levels, and do not casually take heavy short positions if support is not broken. In a volatile market phase, control your actions first and only take opportunities you understand.Robinhood's chain is figuring out a gameplay where whoever pays more can have their order jump ahead. It's a bit like the fast lane at the airport. But this is on-chain, right? Isn't it always said to be fair and transparent? This kind of queue-jumping feels awkward to me. I wonder where the ordinary people's orders will end up being pushed to in the end $HYPE
Hyperliquid has built its identity around on-chain trading infrastructure rather than trying to be a general-purpose blockchain for every possible application. That specialization creates a clear value proposition, but also concentration risk: activity is closely tied to derivatives and trading demand. Sustaining liquidity, users and market depth through different market conditions will be crucial.$BNB I'll be straightforward, the 746 order book for BNB is quiet outside, but inside it's dog-eat-dog. Damn it! The manipulative traders have their scythes raised high, forcibly dragging the K-line along. If this isn't a shakeout, then what is it? 🤡
Looking at the market, buy orders around 740 are piled up like a fortress, and 750 above is heavily suppressed. This is a typical capital wash and accumulation. Don't ask about the news, there is none, it's purely capital pushing and dumping.
My idea is simple: lightly position around 746, if it gets lost, just consider it feeding the dogs; if you catch it, it could be a main upward wave. Don't chase the highs, wait for a pullback confirmation.
Whether to follow or not is at your own risk. If you want to get on board, click the card below to check the order book yourself 👇👇👇October 14, 20:30, US September CPI.
Barclays forecast: overall year-on-year 3.7% (previous 3.4%), core year-on-year 2.5%, core month-on-month 0.24%, lower than August's 0.29%.
Note — the overall jump is driven by energy, core is cooling down.
The market has priced in an 82.3% chance of "no rate hike in October."
But the real bomb is not next week, it's in December.
Gasoline month-on-month +9.23%, heating oil year-on-year +38.8%. WTI is now about $89, Brent hovers around $100.
But core CPI month-on-month actually dropped from 0.29% to 0.24%.
Energy is noise in the headline number, not the trend.
And airline ticket prices have already risen 23%, Morgan Stanley says — the pass-through of fuel costs is nearing its end.
The transmission of energy to the core is almost over.
CME data shows an 82.3% probability of no change in October.
The September minutes said "no rush in October," and Waller clearly stated on October 8: rate hikes don't have to be consecutive and timing can be flexible.
An 82% probability betting on "no hike," this part has almost no expectation gap.
Want to make money betting on this direction? You're already late.
Currently, the probability of a rate hike in December is 67.6%. Next Wednesday's core month-on-month CPI number will decide whether to hike in December:
Core month-on-month ≤ 0.2% → December hike probability drops sharply → USD weakens → BTC rebounds above 85,000.
Core month-on-month ≥ 0.3% → December hike "set in stone" → BTC tests 80,000 or even lower.
One number, two directions. Don't guess, watch the number.
BTC is now oscillating between 82,000-83,000, just went through 1.19 billion in liquidations, fear and greed index dropped from 71 to 56. Spot funds are flowing back, but Hyperliquid whales are still adding shorts.
Deleveraging before CPI, direction set by 82,000 after CPI.
Hold 82,000, rebound continues. Break 82,000, look to 80,000.
Don't guess direction, wait for signals. Those who guessed direction were liquidated in the 400 million liquidation on October 6.
82% bet on "no hike in October," no more profit in this direction.
The real game is in December — and next Wednesday's core month-on-month CPI is the fuse.
$BTC $ETH $XAU Brothers, $MAGIC is still under the strong control of the main players, with a strong pull-up, you can follow the momentum to go long!
I entered a long position at 0.15176, the current price is 0.15243, with an unrealized profit of 1.32%. The 24-hour trading volume surged to $234 million, while the market cap is only $40 million. The daily trading volume is nearly 6 times the market cap, which is not a volume that retail investors can push; it's the main force driving it hard.
Why dare to go long? First, BingX just launched spot trading, and on October 10 at noon, MAGIC/USDT trading will open. Such a listing announcement is a reason for a price rally. Second, funds are overflowing from the blockchain gaming sector; BTC has pulled back from 87,000, and the main funds have nowhere to go, so they are moving into small-cap old altcoins. Third, MAGIC has been consolidating at a low level for a long time, the chips have been cleaned up, resistance to a rally is low, the main players have strong control, and it is still in the rising phase.
On the chart, the price has stabilized above the short-term moving average, MACD shows a bullish alignment, and volume is cooperating well. The short-term resistance above is 0.16; breaking it leads to 0.18 and 0.20.
I will continue to hold my long position entered at 0.15176, set a stop loss at 0.14, and the target is first 0.18.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $INTW Just switched the software to the background, and it crashed instantly. Is it playing hide and seek with me? 😂
In the early hours yesterday, INTW surged to a high level, but volume didn’t keep up. Every push up was just short of breath, with obvious resistance above. I saw INTW repeatedly testing the pressure level, judged the support was insufficient, and signaled bearish during the session—not chasing at highs, waiting for a pullback to short. 🔥
From 30.26 all the way down to 23.65, the short position gave a direct answer, with a floating profit of +546.1%. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly sweet; those on board must have woken up smiling.
The market is to be waited for, profits are to be held for.
First close 80%, keep 20% at cost price for protection. If it continues to drop, let profits run; if it rebounds, don’t give profits back. Take profits when it’s time.
For friends not yet on board, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. Wait for the next signal to move, I will notify immediately. Awaiting good news.
$LAB $BNB The pullback is intentional, this should be understood in reverse.
$BTC and $ETH may pull back once more in the next three days.
Only breaking the previous low counts; if it doesn't break, it doesn't count.
What is the opposing side waiting for:
The pullback is to test how many people are holding without selling.
Last time after the pullback it went up; this time the position is deeper.
Where will it pull back to:
$ETH looks around 2386, $BTC between 79,000 and 80,000.
These numbers are calculated, not guessed.
$ZEC has dropped 35% from the high, falling smoothly.
It may not pull back to the low point, possibly just lightly touching it.
Stop-loss orders placed in that range have already been swept away.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% $BTC $ETH Today the layer2 sector collectively rallied. Has sector rotation really begun?
OP showed the strongest performance, with price rising combined with positive funding rates and a relatively high long position ratio, indicating high leverage fund participation.
ARB was relatively weak, with limited gains and negative funding rates, showing significant market divergence; if prices strengthen later and short positions continue to accumulate, a short squeeze could drive a rebound.
ZK shows characteristics of “longs dominant, short-term deleveraging”: a high proportion of longs but declining open interest.
How much higher can this wave go? $OP $ARB $BTC There is indeed a significant divergence in the current market here.
The bears believe the price has broken below the daily neckline level and is weak on the pullback, continuing to fall, while the bulls think this is just the M zone (manipulation zone) of an AMD pattern.
Both views are reasonable, but I lean more towards the bullish side.
Structurally, we are in a Bitcoin bull market, which is beyond doubt. Additionally, there are a large number of unliquidated shorts at 87500, which clearly does not satisfy Bitcoin's previous inertia downtrend that swept stop losses at the highs. Also, as mentioned in the live broadcast, there is a weekly-level historical fractal for Bitcoin.
Currently, many shorts have positioned at the neckline to short, and market makers need to squeeze these shorts in the opposite direction to push the price up. The first target must be the highly liquid zone at 87500. Whether these shorts will be squeezed again here or market makers will close or sell their chips here requires waiting for the price action and order book data at that time to make a judgment. #美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 The slight rebound in the past two days is driven by short covering, not new money buying in, so don't mistake the rebound for a reversal.
First, let's talk about $BTC. It bounced back from around 80,000 to above 83,000, but in the past 24 hours, shorts liquidated over 50 million, accounting for 80% of total liquidations. This is a short squeeze, not a long attack. On the ETF side, there was a net outflow of 487 million on October 7, with BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARKB all exiting. Glassnode data is even clearer: in the past 30 days, realized market cap increased by 12.8 billion, but new money was only 4.9 billion, less than 40%, so the price rise is not driven by new funds.
Next, $ETH. The rebound was capped at 2,500 by moving averages, with shorts targeting 2,395. ETF funds continue to flow out, staking yields can't keep up with US Treasuries, and institutions are not stepping in below. When $BTC weakens, $ETH falls faster than anyone else and remains the weakest.
Finally, $XAUT gold. It pulled back to the 4,200 level, but record ETF inflows provide strong support, with Q3 net inflows hitting a historic high. Short term, it is pressured by the dollar and US Treasury yields, but under stagflation logic, as long as inflation isn't controlled, funds will eventually flow back into hard assets.
The current strategy is simple: hold spot positions in $BTC and $ETH firmly, unload all short-term leverage, watch for continued ETF inflows supporting gold, and wait for the October 14 CPI release to reassess direction. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Brothers, after playing in the crypto circle, I really feel like I'm getting Parkinson's.
Every time I see such a tempting order, my hands can't help but tremble, uncontrollably wanting to short.
This time, I couldn't resist either, so I shorted.
Look, $CAP went from 0.017 all the way up to 0.099, nearly doubling in thirty days and more than quadrupling in ninety days.
Today it surged 23% in a single day, reaching a high of 0.09976, just a tiny bit short of the 0.1 whole number threshold.
Then it pulled back from the high, now at 0.09056.
The long upper shadow hangs there, doesn't it look like the whale is shouting: "Brothers, I can't hold the longs anymore, you guys hold it up first."
I entered the short at 0.09031, why did I dare to short?
Because this kind of rise is a typical emotional pump; I searched the entire internet and found no fundamental positive support for it.
And the closer it gets to 0.1, the heavier the selling pressure will be. The whale dares to pump so blatantly, definitely stepping on one foot with the other, not using real money to break through.
Now retail investors see the surge and mostly chase in, so what result awaits them?
In terms of operation, hold the short position, add more shorts on rebounds to 0.095-0.10, set stop loss above 0.11, target first at 0.075, and if broken, look at 0.065.
The whale is already telling you to hold it up, and you really dare to hold? Don't let FOMO cloud your judgment, at this position, I'm definitely short.
$BTC
$ZEC
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ The most important thing in trading is not making money, but being able to keep the money you earn. If you can't hold onto the money you make, then making money is all for nothing.
Last night, Bitcoin fluctuated less than 1 point. This morning's data from CoinGlass shows that over 60,000 people were liquidated again. 60,000 people, brothers.BTC and ETH plunged sharply in the early morning, hitting lows of 80340 and 2405 respectively, then rebounded strongly from oversold conditions.
However, this recovery has reached the upper technical resistance zone, so you can try shorting in batches to establish a bottom.
BTC: Try shorting around 82700, add positions at 83550, target 81800
ETH: Try shorting around 2498, add positions at 2530, target 2450 $BTC $ETH $SOL #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 🍱 Saturday midday three major cryptos: BTC bounced to 82800, ETH back to 2485, SOL hovering at 109
$BTC 82886, up 2.28%, rebounded from 82383 to 82886. After holding 82000, it rebounded from oversold, but the ETF saw the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months, institutions are exiting, indicating big money doesn't recognize this rebound. 83000 is resistance; if surpassed, look to 84000, otherwise it will continue to hover. Midday liquidity is better than early morning, but don't chase highs on the weekend.
$ETH 2485, up 2.11%, has already broken the liquidation line of big brother Maji at 2473, his ETH longs should have been liquidated. 2500 is resistance now; if surpassed, look to 2550, otherwise it will continue to hover. ETH is weaker than BTC, with less rebound strength.
$SOL 109.51, up 0.87%, almost flat at 110. SOL is the weakest, with the least rebound. 110 is a psychological barrier; if held, look to 115, if broken, back to 105. The tokenized stock news for Solana can't support it; avoid trading at midday.
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Midday three majors: BTC eyes 83000, ETH targets 2500, SOL holds 110. Large ETF outflows, don't get overexcited, keep light positions over the weekend.#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
$BTC $ETH $SOL
Minutes sound hawkish, data spoils the plan—what is the crypto market afraid of?
Once the September FOMC minutes were released, the screen was full of "the hawks are coming." Most officials indeed said: if inflation doesn't drop, tightening will continue. Some worry the 2% target is stalled, and others feel financial conditions are "not tight enough."
But this minutes report has a fatal flaw—it’s a rearview mirror.
The meeting was held on September 16. At that time, September’s nonfarm payroll and PCE data were not yet available. Looking back now: nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, core PCE year-over-year was 3%, below expectations. CME interest rate futures have directly priced the probability of an October rate hike at less than 25%. JPMorgan and Bloomberg agree—the hurdle for a rate hike has been raised very high.
So the current situation is quite contradictory: the minutes are hawkish, the data is dovish, and the market is pricing dovish.
What crypto fears is not the hawkish minutes, but the hawkish reality. The reality is that employment is cooling, inflation is falling, and the necessity for rate hikes is decreasing. No matter how fierce the minutes are, they reflect the attitude from two weeks ago, not the actions two weeks later.
Short-term volatility will occur, but to call it a new round of "hammering," the data does not agree.
What truly determines the direction is the next set of data, not the previous minutes.Next Wednesday, the September CPI data will be released.
What is the current market consensus?
"Energy prices are soaring, overall CPI will definitely explode, the probability of a rate hike will rise, and BTC will fall."
Barclays predicts the overall CPI year-on-year will hit 3.7%, with gasoline prices surging 9.23% month-on-month. Morgan Stanley predicts even higher, at 3.69%.
Everyone is preparing for a "CPI surprise." But no one is asking one question—
What if the core CPI cools down?
The overall CPI will indeed be driven up by energy.
But the Fed is not focused on the overall CPI; it watches the core CPI.
Barclays and Morgan Stanley’s forecasts are highly consistent: September core CPI month-on-month at 0.24%, down 5 basis points from August’s 0.29%.
The reason is simple: in August, wireless communication service prices jumped abnormally, contributing about 0.1 percentage points to core CPI. This factor fades in September, so core inflation naturally falls.
Overall CPI explodes, core CPI cools down.
The market fears the former, but the Fed only looks at the latter.
CME data shows: an 82.3% probability of holding rates steady in October, and a 67.6% probability of a 25 basis point hike in December.
October is basically locked in with no change.
But whether to hike in December is highly disputed. A 67.6% hike probability means the market thinks "a hike is very likely."
What if core CPI is only 0.24%?
How much would the December hike probability collapse from 67.6%? To 50%? 40%?
This is the real "expectation gap."
Why is this an asymmetric opportunity?
Looking down: the market has priced in "CPI surprise → higher rate hike probability." If CPI really explodes, how much more can BTC fall? From 90,000 to 81,000, $1.3 billion in longs have already been liquidated. Leverage that should blow up has blown up; those who should cut losses have cut.
Looking up: the market has almost no pricing for the scenario "CPI cools → no rate hike in December." If core CPI is really only 0.24%, December hike expectations collapse, the dollar weakens, and US Treasury yields fall—
BTC’s upside elasticity from 82,000 is much greater than the downside.
You might say: energy prices have risen so much, how can CPI cool down?
Right, overall CPI won’t cool down.
But the Fed’s decision basis has never been overall CPI.
They watch the trend of core inflation. Core CPI month-on-month fell from 0.29% to 0.24%, slowing for the second consecutive month. Housing inflation remains stable at 0.24-0.25%, and auto insurance still drags core inflation down.
The direction of core inflation is downward.
But the market is only focused on the headline gasoline price number.
What you fear, the market has already priced in.
What you haven’t thought of, the market hasn’t priced in yet.
Everyone is anxious about "CPI explosion," and this anxiety is already reflected in BTC’s drop from 90,000 to 81,000.
But how much has the market priced in the possibility of "CPI cooling → no rate hike in December"?
Almost zero.
What does Waller think?
He said at Jackson Hole: inflation needs to "fall at a sufficiently fast pace." The September minutes show "most" officials expect one more hike this year but suggest no rush in October.
Waller put it more bluntly: rate hikes don’t need to happen at consecutive meetings; timing can be flexible.
In other words: the Fed has given itself room to "wait for data before deciding."
If core CPI cools, what reason do they have to force a hike in December?
What about trading strategy?
This is a left-side game; control your position size, don’t go all in.
If next Wednesday core CPI month-on-month ≤ 0.2%, December hike expectations will drop sharply. BTC at 82,000 has already digested a round of leverage liquidation; the upward resistance is smaller than most think.
If core CPI ≥ 0.3%, then you have to accept it. But at that time, your position control will determine everything.
Everyone fears a CPI explosion. But the real question is—
If core CPI is only 0.24% and December hike expectations collapse, how far can BTC at $82,000 go up?
The market hasn’t answered this question yet.
Because the market isn’t even asking.
Next Wednesday, October 14.
Overall CPI will look bad. Core CPI might look good.
The market is pricing the former. The opportunity might be in the latter.
$BTC $ETH $XAU BTC is now on the trial bench.
$82,000 — this number is not chosen at random. It stands on the ETF average cost line and is also pressed below the 50-period EMA on the 4-hour chart.
That Thursday drop, from $83,000 down to $80,400, triggered $1.19 billion in liquidations. It has now bounced back, but what about the quality of the rebound? No volume, no breakout, no confirmation.
This is a "corpse repair" after deleveraging, not a "trend reversal."
Market sentiment is cooling down in sync. The Fear & Greed Index fell from 71 (Greed) on October 2 to 56 (Neutral). ETFs are more direct — $484.9 million outflow on Wednesday, another $244 million on Thursday, totaling $729 million in two days; institutions are voting with their feet.
Three lines of defense, one map.
First line of defense: $83,000. Bitwise analyst Luke Deans made it clear: this area is the intersection of the ETF average cost base and technical highs, "tested repeatedly in recent weeks." If the price repeatedly fails to break through, it means this support has changed its nature — support turning into resistance is the most dangerous signal.
Second line of defense: $80,000. Myriad's market prediction data is sobering: BTC has a 67% probability of touching or falling below $80,000 in October, and a 40% probability of reaching $77,500. This is not panic-mongering; it's a bet made with real money.
Upper resistance: $87,400. The September high; bulls must close above this daily to confirm a true reversal. Until then, every rebound can only be considered a "dead cat bounce."
Before CPI, three strategies, pick your seat.
Spot holders — hold steady. Is BTC at $82,000 expensive from a cycle perspective? Not expensive. But you don’t need to make any decisions the day before CPI. Barclays expects the overall September CPI year-over-year to rise to 3.7%, with energy up 5% month-over-month and gasoline up 9.2%. The headline data is likely to look bad. Wait for the actual release.
Contract traders — strictly avoid heavy directional bets. This is the most important. The market has fully priced in no rate hike in October, but has underpriced the risk of "CPI exceeding expectations." What is asymmetric risk? The good news is priced in, the bad news hasn’t come yet. What are you betting on?
DCA investors — continue as usual. The volatility brought by CPI is your best friend. Buy more on dips, buy less on spikes, it’s that simple.
$82,000 is the trial bench. Hold it, the rebound continues; break it, $80,000 is next. Don’t get carried away before CPI, watch the signals after CPI.
$BTC $ETH $BZ $ETH
Ethereum is cutting down
The next support is around 2540
If it breaks down further, it may correct to 2350
With a large-scale correction plus liquidation of long positions
There is a chance it will move near 2300
A 0.382 retracement can cut off all long positions
At this level
If the candle closes upwards, it looks bullish
But if the candle closes and then falls again, it will go to hell
If the rebound is "blocked" at the upper box, I will consider shorting SpaceX plans to purchase spectrum to expand mobile communications, bringing renewed attention to on-chain infrastructure narratives. UNI, as a core decentralized trading asset, indirectly benefits, but in the short term, I judge that the market is still dominated by capital flows, limiting the rebound strength.
Price is 7.387, slightly up 0.4%. The funding rate of -0.0104% indicates shorts are paying, with open interest at 5.747 million coin-margined contracts, showing intense long-short competition. The order book buy/sell ratio is 0.97, with sellers slightly dominant. The 4-hour chart shows a decline of -26.67% from the high and 3.79% above the low, with the downtrend unchanged. 7.227 is the recent key support, and 7.453 is resistance.
Strategy-wise, if it pulls back to 7.235, place a long order with a stop loss at 7.128 and a target of 7.442; if it rebounds to 7.448, lightly short with a stop loss at 7.531 and a target of 7.268. Position size should not exceed 20%, and be cautious of short squeezes under negative funding rates.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$UNI#SpaceX拟购频谱拓展移动通信
#SpaceX拟购频谱拓展移动通信 $UNI #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
The ECB minutes turn hawkish, but why don't risk assets need to panic?
The October ECB meeting minutes show that most members believe maintaining restrictive rates remains necessary if core inflation stickiness continues. Some members even worry that the path for wage growth to fall back to the 2% target range has deviated and question whether the natural rate midpoint is systemically underestimated. The minutes also mention that current financing conditions are "not yet sufficiently restrictive," implying pressure must be maintained.
However, these minutes are essentially an "old map." The meeting was held on October 2, before the release of September Eurozone CPI and PMI data. The latest data shows September CPI year-on-year at only 1.7%, the first time below the 2% target since 2021, core CPI down to 2.7%, and German manufacturing PMI contracting for the fourth consecutive month. Interest rate futures indicate the probability of a rate cut in December has risen above 70%. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank both point out that the threshold for further tightening has significantly increased.
In other words, the minutes are hawkish, but market pricing has already anticipated easing. Risk assets like Ethereum may experience short-term volatility but are unlikely to face a new "cold wave." The real drivers of the trend are the upcoming employment and inflation data, not the already outdated meeting stance.
Good positions are waited out, not chased.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC Just glanced at the market, BTC is still hovering above 82,000, ETH current price is 2492, basically unchanged. Right now, BTC's volatility is narrowing, and volume hasn't picked up. The sentiment is cautious, but not panicked. Resistance is around 83k to 84k above, only if it truly breaks above will there be play; support is near 81k below, if it breaks, it might test 80k. Chasing highs at this level isn't worthwhile, better to wait for a pullback or a breakout with volume.
There are two things to watch today. One is that if US credit unions get involved with stablecoins, they might have to fill out 26 additional federal reporting fields, including custody, issuer exposure, and their own holdings. Regulation is getting more detailed; in the long run, this is good for compliance, but in the short term, sentiment around USDT and USDC might get stirred up. The other is a ZeroHedge article about AI authoritarianism, saying governments lack constitutional brakes. It looks like a macro tech topic, but risk appetite could be affected, and AI combined with crypto might get dragged along.
Anyway, now it's just waiting for direction. BTC hasn't broken key levels, altcoins aren't strong, ETH is sideways. Don't leverage too aggressively, keep some ammo. $ETH $SOL $BTC
#AI与量子威胁下，区块链安全如何升级？ #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Brothers, the hands-on learning class is starting again!
This time, I’m not just grabbing a seat; I’ve been lying in the trenches waiting for this!
Look at this screenshot: I entered a short position on $SNDK at 1887.5, and now the unrealized profit has already hit 156%. I’ve even figured out how to count my money if this drop continues.
I’m not bragging, just look at this chart—the bears have perfect timing, conditions, and support.
$SNDK rolled down from a high of 1908 all the way to 1591 without a decent rebound. The EMA5, EMA10, and EMA20 lines are like three guillotines pressing down on the price, MACD is lying below zero, and the green bars have never shrunk.
The most brutal part is the moves by the big players. South Korean regulators tightened leverage on ETFs, forcing leveraged funds in the storage sector to liquidate, causing $SNDK to plunge 10% intraday.
Then, institutions exited long positions in Nvidia and storage, totaling over $63.7 million.
Even worse, OpenAI’s annualized revenue fell far short of expectations, slapping down the AI demand narrative.
Big players are running and panicking, while I, a retail investor, am waiting below to pick up bargains. Just thinking about this scene is thrilling!
This is the legendary "hands-on learning," brothers—paying tuition while learning how to squeeze money from the market makers.
I’ve paid my tuition this time; it’s my turn to feast, right?
$BTC $ETH $SNDK
#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% Saturday noon.
The weekend is great because you don't have to watch the A-shares. BTC is hovering around 82600 with almost no fluctuation, the 24-hour high is 83499 and the low is 82173, just grinding within this range.
After bouncing up from 80351 yesterday, it hasn't dropped further these two days, nor does it have the strength to surge upwards. MA5 and MA10 have already stuck together, just waiting to pick a direction. Weekend trading volume has also shrunk, retail investors have all gone through the weekend, leaving institutions grinding it out.
An interesting piece of news: Genius Group previously sold all their BTC holdings to repay debts, but then turned around and bought back 10 coins. Selling at a low point and then buying back, this operation isn't much different from retail investors.
The brothers in the group who bottomed out at 83000 are not panicking now, saying let's just leave it like this over the weekend and lie flat waiting for next week's opening.
What do you think, will next week first push up to 83500 to trample MA20 underfoot, or will it retest 80000 again???OpenAI revenue measurement sparks controversy, AI investment returns draw attention, and risk appetite cooling also affects high-volatility assets like BSB. My judgment: there is short-term rebound momentum, but selling pressure above is heavy, so be cautious about chasing highs.
BSB current price 0.10435, up 5.9% in 24 hours, volume 1.93 million, funding rate 0.0050% slightly neutral, open interest 13.263 million. 1-hour trend is upward but only -0.77% from the high, 4-hour trend still downward at -8.42% from the high. Order book top 10 buy/sell ratio is 0.21, sell orders 3155 far exceed buy orders 660, sellers clearly dominant, rebound sustainability is questionable.
Strategy: lightly buy on pullback near 0.09985, stop loss at 0.09655, target 0.10635; if it rises to 0.10695 and is resisted, short for a quick trade, stop loss at 0.10925, target 0.10115. Keep position under 20%, strictly observe stop loss.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you successful trading. —
$BSB#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注
#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注 $BSB Buying a cold wallet was supposed to let me sleep peacefully, but someone woke up to find their coins gone.
On October 9, Ledger announced it is investigating: some users who purchased devices through Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis reported asset losses. Ledger has requested the distributor to suspend sales and shipments; those who bought devices in the past 90 days but haven't activated them should hold off on setting them up, and those who have activated should consider replacing their devices and generating new mnemonic phrases.
On-chain data agency Bitquery estimates that across 5 chains and 311 wallets, losses amount to about $92.9 million. This is Bitquery's statistic, not Ledger's confirmed loss amount; how the mnemonic phrases were leaked remains undetermined.
To say something bittersweet: although we don't earn much and have fewer worries, so we don't have to figure out how to split tens of millions of dollars across wallets for now. But if you really want to buy a cold wallet, you still have to keep a close eye on where the device comes from and who generates the mnemonic phrase.#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注, market divergences on tech narratives are spilling over into crypto sentiment, CL faces short-term pressure but hasn't broken down, I lean towards a bullish consolidation. Funding rates at zero indicate neither longs nor shorts are willing to pay a premium, the game has reached a stalemate; open interest at 372,000 coin-based contracts reflects existing funds in wait-and-see mode. Although the 1-hour chart is rising, it remains 1.96% below the high; the 4-hour downtrend is 5.98% below the high, short-term rebounds can't mask the pressure of a longer-term correction; buy/sell ratio is 1.04, top 10 levels show 39,000 bids vs 38,000 asks, buyers slightly dominant. Turnover is 8.948 million, 24-hour increase of 0.7%, volatility narrowed between 89.74 and 91.69, volume insufficient to drive a breakout. You can place longs at 90.35, stop loss at 89.15, target 91.85; if price rallies to 91.55 and meets resistance, try light shorts with stop loss at 92.35, target 90.05. Keep position under 10%, exit on break.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wishing you smooth trading. —
$CL#TSMC Q3 revenue hits record high, what other highlights are in the October 15 earnings report?
#OpenAI营收口径引争议，AI投资回报受关注 $CL $AR has recently underperformed $FIL. Once FIL experiences a strong rally, AR cannot remain completely stagnant, as these two coins have a strong correlation. However, for a significant increase, it still depends on the progress of their own fundamentals. Brothers, this $NMR short position is absolutely thrilling! The current price dropped straight to 13.106, I opened my position at an average price of 16.302, floating profit of 58.81%,
Look at this market: above, 13.112 is holding down 24.9 sell orders, 13.111 has 0.6 orders, 13.110 has 1.3 orders, the selling pressure is layered. Below, the buy orders are just a few scattered ones, 13.106 has 4.4 orders, 13.105 has 7.3 orders, the price simply can't be pushed up. The long-short ratio is 32% to 68%, shorts clearly dominate, retail investors are stubbornly holding long positions.
Why is this short position so profitable? The core reason is profit-taking after the positive news is realized. On October 6, NMR surged 41.73% in 15 minutes due to Upbit listing Korean won and USDT trading pairs, reaching 17.58. But this kind of news-driven rally comes fast and goes fast; after the positive news is realized, those who chased the high are trapped at the peak. The funding rate flipped from an extreme negative -1.2% to positive, indicating shorts are retreating and longs are starting to take over, ending the short squeeze. Plus, from 16 to 17 above is a dense area of trapped positions, so any rebound just hands money to the shorts.
Technically, 13.1 is short-term support; if it doesn't hold, the next target is 12.5, and breaking that leads to the 12 whole number level. Above, 14 is strong resistance; if it can't break through, the price will continue to drop.
Brothers, keep holding your short positions, this downtrend isn't over yet.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Challenge to break even before the end of October
Recording the current loss of 4200u, total profit -46%
Performance reinforcement methods:
1. Short PONS at low leverage for the long term, hold the floating profit.
2. Continue holding the losing short position on BTC.
3. Short RIVER at 5x leverage, LAB at 10x leverage.
Review compared to yesterday: loss increased by 150u, LAB's profitable short position surged, profit retraced by 450u. Continue holding, altcoin pumps and dumps are uncontrollable, so use low leverage. Continue to be bearish on LAB.
Strictly follow trading discipline, set stop-loss lines, altcoins within 10x leverage, mainstream coins within 20x. Protect the principal, opportunities are always there. $ENA
ENA/USDT Perpetual 30-Minute Review
Opinion from this ID: After an initial surge to 0.26250, the price faced resistance and fell sharply, hitting a low of 0.19400. The current upward move is a corrective rebound following the big drop, so don’t rush to conclude a trend reversal. If the price approaches the resistance zone and the upward momentum weakens, it’s an opportunity to try short positions, betting on a second downturn.
Entry: Enter short when the rebound nears the upper resistance zone, and the chart shows weakening upward momentum with candlesticks indicating resistance.
Stop Loss: Place above the high point of this rebound.
Chan Theory Structure: On the 30-minute timeframe, after the initial peak at 0.26250, the price broke down through the previous consolidation zone and formed a clear downtrend, bottoming at 0.19400. The current rise is a pullback after the breakdown; the price has not reclaimed the previous consolidation zone, so the downtrend structure remains intact. After the rebound, there is still a possibility of retesting the lows.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation: During the initial breakdown, volume significantly increased, fully releasing selling pressure from the bears. In contrast, the current rebound lacks volume expansion, driven by existing funds after overselling, without substantial new capital entering to support the rally, so the upward momentum is insufficient.
Key Observation: Focus closely on the old consolidation resistance above. If the rebound fails to break through or hold above this area, this corrective rally will likely end; only a strong breakout with volume confirming a hold above resistance warrants reevaluating the market direction.Stop blindly believing that "cold wallets = absolute security."
According to BlockBeats, Ledger users are suspected to have suffered a large-scale coin theft attack, with on-chain analysts monitoring losses exceeding $86 million. The incident is still under investigation, and the final amount may continue to increase. Ledger users should immediately check device authorizations and suspicious transactions, and suspend blind signing operations.
Two observations: First, if the root cause points to firmware or supply chain vulnerabilities, the impact will be far greater than user operational errors; second, if the incident is confirmed, some funds may flow back to exchanges in the short term or shift to multi-signature solutions. Do you think this issue is more like a supply chain/firmware vulnerability or a user operation risk? "Has the capital flow direction changed? The long-short divergence between $CAP and $TRUMP"
Smart money seems to be switching sides. The $CAP market is controlled by bulls: $5.47 million long versus $1.77 million short, a clear advantage; bulls have an unrealized profit of +$585,000, with new buying intensity 3.4 times that of selling. Buying continues to flow in, with short-term sentiment clearly aggressive.
In contrast, $TRUMP remains firmly dominated by shorts: $15.24 million short versus $7.59 million long. Shorts have an unrealized profit of +$2.35 million, while longs are at a loss of -$745,000. Although since the last update, the losses of TRUMP longs have significantly narrowed, selling pressure has not eased. Even with a price rebound of +4%, the structure remains fragile; the recovery looks more like a repair rather than a reversal.
My judgment: CAP's chips and capital flow are healthier, showing stronger rebound resilience; TRUMP needs to first digest short pressure before a true strengthening can be discussed. At present, the choice of smart money is already written in the data.
For observation only, not investment advice.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 【STRK suddenly surges 20%, is Starknet no longer willing to work for Ethereum?】
$STRK has surged aggressively with a 24-hour increase of about 20%, pushing the price close to $0.073. The trigger is that Starknet is starting to consider shifting from Ethereum Layer 2 to an independent Layer 1, aiming to accelerate quantum resistance deployment with a target for 2027.
The market is speculating not only on the technical upgrade but also on whether Starknet can break free from reliance on Ethereum's roadmap and control its own development pace. This is currently just a consideration, not a completed migration.
Perpetual contract trading volume is about $34.94 million, while spot volume is only $8.65 million, with the former more than four times the latter; open interest has also increased by about $17.27 million. This indicates active participation from leveraged funds but does not prove there is an equally large spot buying follow-through.
For now, consider STRK as a short-term strong coin catalyzed by narrative, though there is no rush to chase the new story. If spot trading volume picks up and the price stabilizes above $0.07, the rally will be more sustainable; if only contracts continue to accumulate positions, the stronger the rise, the harsher the potential short squeeze could be.Santiment released a set of data showing that the Solana network has increased by 124% since early September, with about 1.71 million new wallets added daily, and daily active addresses reaching 4.27 million, up 58%.
My first reaction when I saw these numbers was disbelief. 1.71 million new addresses every day, what kind of scale is that? But Santiment defines "network size" as the number of wallets interacting with the chain for the first time, which is a solid statistical dimension that can't be faked.
Another thing that reassures me is that active addresses are rising along with it. Having many new addresses doesn't necessarily mean much, but if both new and active addresses rise simultaneously, it means these people are staying and really using it.
The user base of $SOL is visibly thickening at a noticeable speed. It's normal for funds to flow in and out on the ETF side, but what truly determines the long-term value of a chain is how many people are doing things on it every day.
It's not about looking at the price for a day or two, but whether people keep coming to this chain continuously. 1.71 million new wallets, people are coming every day. Damn, I really misjudged this newly launched coin.
I didn't expect it to be so strong, today it directly surged 20%.
It almost caused me to liquidate, just barely missed it.
Brothers, especially those short sellers, are you holding up? Can you still endure?
The newly launched $CAP skyrocketed straight from 0.07219 to 0.09976, this rally is brutal, it’s literally stepping on the corpses of the shorts.
Currently, the price has pulled back to 0.08935, MA5 is starting to cross below MA10, indicating that after this sharp surge, the bulls’ momentum is weakening, leaving a long upper shadow above.
My current short position has an average entry price of 0.08251, with an unrealized loss of -28.14%.
This time I was definitely bitten by a manipulative whale, but I won’t blindly cut losses here, nor will I add to my position and stubbornly hold.
As long as it doesn’t break above the previous high of 0.10, a pullback is highly likely.
My stop loss remains above 0.10; if it really breaks through, I’ll admit my mistake and exit.
Take profit is first set at 0.08, if it breaks below that then look at 0.075.
$BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 Last night's sell-off was brutal.
The entire network saw liquidations exceeding 1 billion, and the bulls' blood hasn't even dried yet. This morning's slight rebound is basically just a breather—not a reversal, so don't get ahead of yourself.
Let's talk about the news first. There are three mountains looming overhead.
The first is U.S. Treasury yields. The 10-year yield has surged to 5.25%, the highest since 2002. What does that mean? You can get a risk-free 5%+ return just by sitting tight. Who would still want to risk it in crypto? Capital naturally flows to safer places. This is like the Sword of Damocles hanging over risky assets and won’t disappear anytime soon.
The second mountain is ETF funds. From Wednesday to Thursday, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows exceeding $700 million, with Fidelity's FBTC losing nearly $200 million in a single day. Ethereum ETFs are even worse, with outflows for eight consecutive trading days. Institutions are pulling out, and this signal can't be ignored.
The third mountain is sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index dropped from 71 (greed) at the start of October to 56 (neutral) in just one week. The market mood shifted from "charge ahead" to "wait and see." The 10/10 anniversary just passed, and there's still some psychological shadow lingering.
Altcoins are showing serious divergence—some bounced a bit, others are still catching downtrends, with no unified momentum. This kind of market is typical of "recovering from a major illness," the body is still weak.
Looking at the charts, $BTC is now around 82,500.
Yesterday’s low dipped to 80,427, and that spike knocked many out of their positions.
· First support below: 81,600. Further down, 81,000 is a key defensive line. If that breaks, the psychological 80,000 level is at risk.
· First resistance above: 83,500. This level is critical—previously a support platform, now turned into a selling pressure zone.
· Above that, 84,300-84,500 is near the average cost zone of ETF holders, so resistance will only get heavier.
$ETH is around 2,485 now.
· Support below at 2,470; if broken, look toward 2,400. ETH did hit around 2,400 yesterday.
· Resistance above at 2,520; the 2,490-2,510 range is a short-term resonance suppression zone.
$OKB is near 125-126, relatively stable, with support at 123.8 and resistance at 127. Volume is average, no special story here, just following the broader market.
In short, this morning’s message is: a breather after a big drop, not yet time to confirm a reversal.
At this point, I prefer to watch two things first—whether $BTC can hold above 83,000 and whether ETH can reclaim 2,500. Once these two conditions are confirmed, then it’s not too late to consider taking action.
If you have positions, control your leverage and don’t let yesterday’s situation repeat. If you’re out of the market, don’t rush in just because of a small green candle; this kind of market is the easiest to get trapped by "bull traps."
Stay steady. Wait for the signal, don’t jump the gun.
$BTC $ETH $OKB
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $ETH's 2540 order placed yesterday was not canceled, waiting to see if it can be executedBut let's be clear: successful shorts aren't simply about luck. They come from recognizing the trend, managing risk, and waiting for confirmation. Look at ETH's daily structure. After reaching a recent high near $2,765, the price started forming lower highs and lower lows. The important $2,400 psychological support is now under pressure, with ETH hovering around $2,385. The moving averages continue to favor sellers, while rebound attempts lack convincing volume. So far, buyers haven't demonstrat【ETHUSDT Market Analysis: Key Support Defense Battle, the Bull-Bear Watershed at This Critical Point】
📌 Summary in One Sentence:
Ethereum has recently pulled back with the broader market (7-day decline of -7%), currently struggling to hold near the daily MA60. MACD has formed a bearish crossover downward, facing severe short-term pressure. The 2,460 level is the crucial defense line determining the bull or bear trend.
📊 Core Support and Resistance Levels:
🔴 Resistance Levels Above (Heavy Resistance):
· First Resistance: 2,520 - 2,550. The recent rebound high and 24-hour high zone, the first short-term hurdle. Without a volume breakout, it is highly likely to fall back to test the bottom support.
· Second Resistance: 2,600 - 2,650. A dense chip area and round number during the previous downtrend, with heavy selling pressure.
· Strong Resistance (Trend Reversal Point): 2,806 (previous high). Only with a volume-backed recovery above this level can the pullback be confirmed as ended and the bullish trend restarted.
🟢 Support Levels Below (Step-by-Step Tension):
· First Support (Lifeline): 2,460 - 2,475. This area includes the daily MA60 (2,460.20) and the recent low at 2,473. This is the most critical short-term lifeline; if it holds steady, a bottoming and rebound are expected; if broken effectively, it will trigger panic selling.
· Second Support: 2,300 - 2,350. The strong support zone of the previous consolidation platform before the rise. If MA60 fails, bears will likely test this level.#PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%. If this comes true, risk asset valuations will be systemically suppressed, with high beta assets like SOL taking the brunt. In the short term, I lean towards a defensive stance.
Current price is 109.83, down 0.6% in 24 hours, with volatility confined between 108.37 and 112.04; the 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages are both trending downward, having retraced 11.48% from the 4-hour high, and the trend has yet to bottom out. Trading volume is 6.389 million, slightly reduced, and the funding rate of 0.0059% indicates longs are still paying to hold positions, so sentiment hasn't cleared; the top 10 bid-ask ratio of 1.39 shows buyers dominate the order book but cannot overcome the downward trend pressure.
Risk control priority: lightly short near 111.35 on a rebound, stop loss at 113.15, target 107.65, with a break below that looking towards 105.85; if volume expands and price recovers above 112.45, switch to a short-term long, stop loss at 110.95, target 114.35. Single position size should not exceed 5% of total capital, and stop losses must be executed mechanically.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$SOL#PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6%
#PIMCO warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6% $SOL In the earlier crypto space, only stablecoins and exchanges had stable and profitable business models. Stablecoin projects earned interest by buying U.S. Treasury bonds, and exchanges made money from spot and futures trading fees.
Today, the crypto space has added several more stable and reliable business models, such as DeFi on public blockchains, PerpDex, and prediction markets.
DeFi offers a completely open, decentralized, censorship-free, KYC-free, 24/7 trading venue. PerpDex provides an on-chain high-leverage casino where you can bet on everything, including stocks, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, and commodities. Prediction markets offer a place to bet on all kinds of events.
These three business models represent objectively existing activities, not just empty promises or narratives. Indeed, there are customers with these needs, huge trading volumes, project teams making profits, able to buy back tokens, and the entire token ecosystem has value capture capability.
The crypto space is gradually transitioning from purely telling narratives, idealism, and market dreams to focusing on demand, customers, and value capture. It seems to be entering a phase of value investing rather than speculation.Hold off on selling short for now!
Weekend $BTC Morning Report｜Sideways at 82.5K, beware of false breakouts!
The early session closed with a long upper shadow bullish candle, ending a 4-day losing streak. After dipping to 80.3, it quickly rebounded and is now consolidating around 82.5.
Key levels:
• 82.8 (previous support turned resistance): Only after breaking and stabilizing above this can we return to the familiar long zone; prioritize following the trend for longs
• 84.4 (0.618 Fibonacci retracement from high to low): Reduce position + key dividing line between bulls and bears
Volume-price divergence + MACD bullish crossover from bottom divergence (all below zero line). Weekend liquidity is thin, so false breakouts and bull traps are likely.
Spot ETF has continuous net outflows.
Trading advice: Wait for a clear breakout signal, do not chase highs! What’s your take? "AI might crack Bitcoin within months," and as soon as this news broke, $STRK surged 40% against the trend that day.
On October 8-9, the industry was in an uproar over whether AI could break the ECDSA signatures protecting BTC/ETH wallets: Vitalik issued an additional warning that cryptography might be impacted within two years but advised against rushing to move coins;
Coinbase's cryptography lead Lindell bluntly called it "baseless" FUD; Ledger's CTO said if it really breaks, "Bitcoin would be our smallest problem." Drake gave the worst-case window as "months, not years."
Panic immediately translated into price action. On October 9, Starknet was rumored to be seeking to transform into an "anti-quantum" L1, and STRK bucked the overall market plunge by rising over 40%, though the project team has yet to present a concrete plan. A purely theoretical risk became a hype fuel that day.
In my view, this is baseless; even if that day comes, it won't happen overnight, and the migration window is measured in years; so this is just a temporary hype, and once the heat dies down, this coin will fall harder than anyone else.$ZEC
After $ZEC rebounds, how to distinguish between a recovery and a renewed resistance?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 1196.12—1247.33 USDT, change +1.72%, trading volume about 38.8 million USDT.
A one-day rise indicates some recovery of buyers at low levels, but it cannot erase the previous larger pullback. Resistance is a relative state that needs to be tested when the overall market faces pressure again; privacy narratives cannot replace real capital support.
Next time BTC falls, if $ZEC breaks below 1196.12 first, it should no longer be considered defensive; if it maintains a higher low and recovers 1247.33 first, then its advantage can be re-evaluated.$BTC
There is a clear difference now compared to 2023: back then, after sweeping the swing highs, we faced strong rejection and then rallied all the way up. This time? We cleanly made a higher high and closed above the previous high for two consecutive weeks — this is not a false breakout, but a strong performance.
As long as we hold above the previous high, I am optimistic about another upward move. Yes, there will be pullbacks even in a bull market, but before I turn bearish in the short term, I need to see this level break.
If a weekly close does indeed fall below this level, then $77k–$75k will become an obvious retest zone. Until then, the trend still favors the upside. $BTC $ETH $SOL