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"After Turning Off the Candlestick Chart" Closing the market software, the world becomes half as quiet. $BTC hangs at 82,569, down 0.31%. 83,499 feels like a door that was just pushed open and then closed again, and the throwing knife I caught a few days ago is still stuck in my account—cutting hurts, holding on hurts too. $ETH is even more frustrating, at 2,486, down 0.05%, hovering back and forth between 2,520 and 2,468. The position I added yesterday feels like throwing it into a deep well, with not even an echo. $ZEC isn’t doing any better, at 1,209, down 0.69%, surging to 1,247 then crashing back down; the ups and downs feel like a script written just for harvesting. I’m no longer playing along. I thought watching the market would bring satisfaction, but it only brought dull knives. The rise isn’t smooth, the fall isn’t sharp, emotions are repeatedly tugged by each candlestick. No money made, but my spirit is already exhausted. The biggest loss isn’t the unrealized loss, but letting it invade my life: watching while eating, before sleep, upon waking, and eventually too lazy even to curse. I’m done watching. Closing the software, going to work, going to sleep, giving my attention back to reality. The market will always have the next round; people can’t be worn down first. Trade rationally, don’t get carried away! #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $STRK $MAGIC $CAP 16:30 I probably misjudged the subsequent trends of these three coins today. 💬magic Originally, I had a 20x long position of 200u increased to 400, which I shouldn't have added to, otherwise I would have lost 400 less. At that time, it triggered my stop loss. 💬strk has been oscillating for a long time. Previously, I thought the chance of an upward trend was greater, but now I'm not so sure. 💬cap is generally bearish. ❣ For coins with large volatility, if the direction is wrong, only a light position can survive; heavy positions are likely to not hold up. ❣ Today, I tried going long for the first time, and the result was pretty good. ❣ Go with the trend. Just now with magic's trend, I should have gone short following the trend, not gone long against it again.US stock AMZN recovered Thursday's losses on Friday, and I am willing to be optimistic about a continued rebound in the first couple of trading days next week. The decline in consumer confidence is indeed worrying for retail, but about 60% of the company's operating profit comes from AWS. To judge the entire company negatively just based on whether people want to buy things seems a bit hasty to me. On Friday, AMZN rose 3.29% to close at $262.43, already higher than Wednesday's closing price of $259.92. This recovery of losses gives me a bit more confidence, but the trading volume was about 10% less than Thursday's, so we can't say the buying momentum has fully returned yet. Last night, the preliminary Michigan consumer confidence for October dropped from 48.1 to 46.3, with the survey mentioning that consumers are increasingly dissatisfied with the cost of living. People are more hesitant to buy things, which may put pressure on Amazon's retail, but this survey does not yet prove that the company's actual sales have declined. In Q2, AWS earned $16.6 billion in operating profit, with the company overall at $27.5 billion, AWS accounting for about 60%. This business segment's revenue is also 37% higher than the same period last year. Demand from enterprises for cloud and AI services will not entirely follow consumer shopping trends. The earnings report was released in July; this is the company's existing profit base, not a new positive from Friday. But AI is also costing money. Over the past twelve months ending in June, Amazon's free cash flow was negative $7.6 billion, with the company saying this was mainly due to increased investment in AI-related equipment. AWS profits look good, but how much cash remains after investment still needs to be observed. Profit growth alone can also make people uneasy. If next week it falls back to around $260 and continues to move... #BTCETFBiggestOutflow was trending on OKX Orbit this week, yet the October 6 ETF print came in at a $118.8M net inflow, with IBIT taking $122M of it. One day proves little, and sources disagree on the 2026 picture, with some reporting record outflows and others showing year-to-date inflows. I'd rather say that than pick the number that fits. Which matters more for $BTC : the loud daily headline or the slow cumulative flow? @OKX Orbit Daily #OKXOrbitTopics #BTCETFBiggestOutflow $ETH $SOL $ZEC short selling at a high price, $USELESS long position trapped: a practical review on leverage and asset selection Today's positions are one in profit and one in loss. 1. ZECUSDT perpetual short 50x full position Opening average price 1228.64, mark price 1226.31 Unrealized profit +3.39 USDT (+9.66%), maintenance margin ratio 491%, liquidation price 1286 ZEC is clearly pressured above 1200, with a bearish divergence signal on the 4H chart, choosing to short at the high to bet on a pullback. Although 50x leverage is high, the position is light, stop loss set above 1300, risk is controllable. Currently, short-term support is effective, continue to hold and observe. 2. USELESSUSDT perpetual long 10x full position Opening price 0.19176, mark price 0.17887 Unrealized loss -13.14 USDT (-67.21%), liquidation price 0.09206 This trade was an emotional chase on the long side, couldn't resist the volume surge. As expected, the coin named USELESS is indeed "useless" 😂 10x leverage amplified losses against the trend, although the liquidation price is still far away, the lesson is deep—junk coin + high leverage + against the trend = triple loss combo. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #跟着OKX打卡2049 #Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失 !Position management is the lifeline of contracts; even if the direction is correct, an overweight position can still lead to liquidation. 1. Single position limit: single trade ≤ 2% of total funds, single coin exposure ≤ 20%. 2. Total position divided into three tiers: ① Base position 40% (main trend direction) ② Flexible 30% (swing or hedge) ③ Reserve 30% (extreme opportunities/stop-loss replenishment) 3. Diversify across four coins: BTC/ETH as main positions, SOL as flexible, BNB as defensive; single coin never exceeds 30%. 4. Position adjustment rhythm: • With the trend: pyramid add in 3 batches • Against the trend: only reduce, no add • Sideways: flexible positions do narrow-range high sell and low buy 5. Five-step approach: 1. Calculate total available funds 2. Set base/flexible/reserve three tiers 3. Allocate proportions for four coins 4. Set single position 2% limit 5. Set retreat signal light (fee extreme/multi-short ratio >3/liquidation zone dense, choose one of three) 6. Five red lines: ❶ Single position >5% immediately halve ❷ Total position >80% stop adding ❸ Single coin >30% force split ❹ No adding on weekends, only reducing ❺ When retreat light is on, close positions first then observe $CORE “静默消耗战”，精准地概括了CORE项目当前的终局阶段。这并非触底反弹前的平静，而是项目方放弃挣扎、流动性彻底枯竭后，一种缓慢死亡的典型状态。 📢 官方渠道的“静默” 已持续超过十天。项目方最后一次有实质内容的公告，还停留在10月1日宣布DAO“逐步退出区块生产”的声明上。 这种沉默并非“蛰伏”，而是官方已无话可说。社区评论一针见血地指出，“长久的沉默，不是蓄力，是躺平摆烂”。他们回避了所有核心问题，包括那6900万枚无法追回的“幽灵筹码”将如何处置，以及承诺的完整事故复盘报告为何迟迟不发布。 价格与流动性的“消耗战” 价格在0.02U上下反复消耗，正是流动性陷阱的直观体现。目前的稳定并非因为有新资金入场，而是套牢的持有者拒绝在亏损状态下卖出，形成了一种脆弱的平衡。 · 极低的成交量：根据最新数据，CORE的24小时全网交易量仅在200万至300万美元的极低水平。这个数字对于一个曾经市值几十亿的项目来说，意味着市场深度已几乎不复存在。 · 脆弱的支撑：这种仅靠“拒绝卖出”维持的价格，非常脆弱。一旦有任何集中的抛压出现，市场将因为缺乏买单承接而导致价格瞬间崩盘，滑点会急剧Don't focus on the narrative of the main storyline later, just look at three questions: 1. Does the project have real revenue — the kind left after deducting subsidies and incentive rebates, not GMV, not TVL. 2. Does this revenue buy back its own tokens — is the money going into the team's pocket, wasted on ineffective subsidies, or flowing back to token holders. 3. Was the buyback followed by a burn. This step is the real dividing line. Burn = supply permanently disappears, value is returned to every holder who hasn't sold according to their share, equivalent to stock cancellation. No burn, hoarding into the treasury = just moving tokens from circulation to another pocket, total supply unchanged, and one day governance can vote to take it out again to issue grants, incentives, or salaries. This is called "storing selling pressure," not "eliminating selling pressure." A harsher question is the fourth: Is the buyback money from current profits or leftover capital from treasury financing. Using leftover capital for buybacks is market cap management, once burned it's gone. And the fifth: Does the buyback outpace unlocking. Burning 1,000 tokens weekly but unlocking 100,000 monthly still results in net issuance. From January to August 2026, the entire industry spent $638 million on buybacks, with HYPE and Pump.fun accounting for nearly 90%. It's truly lively, but reviewing this $638 million, the actual supply reduction might be less than half. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $ZEC more than 50x! Floating profit 72%!! From 1207 to 1225, dipped and pulled back to hold! Those who understand 50x know, one needle pullback hits hard. Now 0.7x big profit, immediately lock in a large portion of gains, set stop loss at 1215 to protect the base position, then watch 1240. $ETH $BTC No giving back means winning, steady finish! No lingering at 50x, take the profit and leave the rest to fate, solid in the afternoon! #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Folks, has Bitcoin become "gentler"? Don't be fooled by appearances 😳 The annualized volatility dropped from 84% to 46%, so it is indeed much more stable usually. But the frequency of extreme events is actually higher: in 2026, there were 10 days of extreme volatility, more than the entire 2018 bear market (8 days). Institutional entry has indeed increased resilience, but it hasn't eliminated the risk of sudden crashes. Don't get overconfident with high leverage just because things seem stable—sudden spikes don't play fair! 💅 $BTC #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Some people think the drop is over, while others think it hasn't dropped enough. Actually, whether the correction is over or not isn't that important; even if it continues downward, there's no need to panic. $BTC $ETH were originally expected to have three rate hikes this year, but now the expectation has changed to just two, or even one. Even if there is a rate hike, it will be dovish. Right now, we're at most standing on the second floor, which is completely different from the cliff-like market in June this year. Back then, it was all foggy and you couldn't see the bottom at all, which scared everyone; at this second-floor height, even if it dips a bit more, the risk is still manageable. This correction was already anticipated, so it's not surprising at all. The current correction bottom is around 80k, and capital net inflow is still positive. It's not that simple to directly test the 74k-75k range. Of course, the market is never absolute. If it really reaches that level, don't be afraid; this is a rare opportunity to position yourself, one that doesn't come often. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $MAGIC is consolidating at a high level with short orders placed, then dumping to take profits before consolidating again, turning the tax rate negative. Is this whale preparing for a triple play?#PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6% $BTC The 10-year US Treasury yield has touched 6%, the last time it was at this level was in 2000. ▪️ PIMCO Chief Investment Officer Dan Ivascyn told the Financial Times: a sharp rise from the current 5.29% "is achievable" ▪️ The 10-year yield has risen nearly 120 basis points this year, hitting 5.34% last week, the highest since 2002 ▪️ He cites three drivers: high oil prices, expanding public debt, AI infrastructure bond issuance ▪️ The key is another point: in recent weeks, leveraged investors have been continuously losing in this $32 trillion market, forced to stop loss and liquidate positions ▪️ This is a technical sell-off — it’s not bearish sentiment, it’s forced liquidation ▪️ PIMCO itself is a bond fund; rising rates mean unrealized losses on existing holdings, so they are speaking against their own positions The disagreement is not whether 6% will be reached, but whether the push is driven by sentiment or positioning. Sentiment can change, positioning cannot wait. The stop-loss line for leveraged players is mechanical; if margin is insufficient, they sell regardless of valuation. In a $32 trillion market, as long as a group is forcibly liquidated, selling pressure is unrelated to bullish or bearish views. Direction to watch — before forced liquidations end, inflation data is just a supporting actor; the 10-year yield closing below 5.34% is what counts as the past.防备硬件钱包供应链攻击，白帽安全专家的三层防御建议 第一层，供应链安全，确保你拿到的设备是干净的 只从官方渠道购买，这是底线。Ledger官方明确建议用户仅通过官网或授权经销商网络购买设备，而非电商平台和中间商。收到设备后，仔细核对包装封条是否完好，检查设备外观是否与官方标准照片一致。 首次开机时必须确认设备要求你亲自设置PIN码，并在设备屏幕上自行生成助记词。任何预置助记词、说明书附带助记词卡片、或要求你从包装中导入助记词的情况，都是设备已被篡改的明确信号。 如果设备来自非官方渠道，尤其是东南亚经销商CryptoBilis这类已知问题渠道，即使包装完好也不要存入大额资产。Ledger官方建议过去90天内从该渠道购买设备的用户，尚未初始化的暂勿初始化，已初始化的应使用全新助记词创建新钱包并转移资产。 第二层，助记词管理，确保它从未被任何人看到过 助记词只在设备屏幕上生成，永远不要用手机拍照、不要截图、不要存入备忘录、不要存云端、不要通过任何即时通讯工具传输。恶意软件可以直接扫描设备中与BIP-39词库匹配的单词序列。 备份使用纸质或专用金属备份板，不要用普通便签，不要用打印机打印，打印Massive Capital Migration! ETF Blood Infusion for BTC, ETH Abandoned, Who Is Scheming in the Shadows? 1. Capital Flow Split: Institutions Favoring One Over the Other ① BTC ETF capital flow shows divergence, quickly turning from net outflow to net inflow after the latest period; IBIT attracted over $22 million in a single day, indicating marginal improvement in institutional allocation willingness. ② ETH ETF has experienced nine consecutive trading days of net outflow, with a single-day outflow exceeding $56 million, showing clear capital withdrawal. A tale of two extremes: ETH lacks incremental support, and selling pressure is emerging. 2. On-Chain Undercurrents: Exchange Balance Divergence ① ETH exchange balances have recently increased by over 100,000 coins, while BTC exchange balances decreased by about 15,000 coins in the same period. Capital is flowing from ETH to BTC, intensifying chip structure divergence. ② The hardware wallet supply chain theft incident has impacted self-custody trust, but its short-term direct price impact is limited, mostly causing emotional disturbance. 3. Market and Macro: Weak Oscillation, Heavy Suppression ① On the 1-hour timeframe, both BTC and ETH are constrained by medium-to-long-term moving averages, with weak rebounds. Funding rates are neutral, the long-short ratio favors longs, but trading volume is balanced, lacking one-sided driving force. ② Rising geopolitical risks combined with high US Treasury yields suppress risk appetite amid macro uncertainty, potentially amplifying short-term volatility. Core Summary: Capital is voting with its feet; BTC is supported by institutions, while ETH faces dual pressure from capital outflows and loosening chip structure. This is not a trending market but a structural divergence. $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 $SOL dropped 0.40% in 24 hours, with a volatility of less than 4 points, and the trading volume shrank directly to about 30% of the previous period. SOL, is this a market trend or an ECG? It neither rises nor falls, with MA5, MA10, and MA20 all squeezed within the narrow range of 109.6 to 109.9. RSI at 49.3 is flatter than me lying down. Dealer, give us a straightforward answer! Resistance is at 112.06 above, support at 108.45 below, and 105.71 was the bottom of the last spike. You just keep rubbing back and forth here, making retail investors itchy-handed and restless. To put it plainly, this is a typical grinding washout; unless you shake out the unsteady chips, you don't intend to rally, right? Let me ask: with volume shrinking like this, what tricks can you still pull? If you have the guts to break through 105.71, I'll admit I'm wrong on the spot; if not, just honestly break through 110.85 and stop playing dead here. $BTC Bitcoin current price 82800, a few heartfelt words Looking at the 2-hour chart, after dropping from 87385, this is the first decent rebound, MACD just formed a golden cross with expanding red bars, but EMA30 is pressing down at 82788, the major moving averages are still in a bearish alignment, conclusion: oversold recovery, not a reversal More clearly on the 15-minute chart, it pulled up from 80344 by over 2300 points, now sticking to the BOLL upper band at 82776, chasing highs has a poor risk-reward ratio Key levels set as: Long positions wait for a pullback to 82550-82600 to enter, stop loss below 82380, targets 83000/83300 Short positions wait for a retest at the resistance zone 83300-83450, stop loss above 83550 Don't chase highs, don't hold losing positions, single trade stop loss should not exceed 2% of principal In volatile markets, survival is more important than quick profits.Position size is the lifeline in the crypto world $BTC dropped from 87,000 to 80,400, then bounced back to 82,500. $ETH crashed from 2,777 to 2,405, then pulled back up. Prices circle back to the starting point; some recover with minor losses, others wipe out completely. The same market wave, completely different outcomes. ChainCatcher's data is cold and harsh: long liquidations account for 94%. Gate Square hits the nail on the head—your unrealized losses are the meat grinder harvesting leveraged longs. You think awareness decides everything? Wrong. Many who judged the direction correctly lie dead due to position sizing. Spot traders watch profits retract and sigh, holding on; futures traders see their margin wiped out and don’t even have the right to sigh. With 10x leverage, a 3% adverse move is catastrophic, and such swings are just daily breathing in crypto. This market never lacks opportunities; it lacks people alive to seize them. Direction is probability, position size is life or death. Awareness can be cultivated slowly, but if you mismanage position size once, there’s no next time. Don’t let leverage decide your fate. Staying alive is the biggest position. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 CNQ is one of Canada's largest independent crude oil and natural gas producers, primarily focused on oil sands extraction + upgrading (long-life, low-decline assets). It is a stable, dividend-paying upstream energy stock with solid fundamentals, suitable for investors looking to allocate long-term to Canadian oil sands. The dividend is not very high but is moderately stable. Current CNQ dividend situation (October 2026): Dividend yield: approximately 3.5% – 3.7% (most data shows 3.58%–3.63%) Annual dividend about US$1.78 – 1.80 Paid quarterly Has a long record of consecutive dividend increases (over 20 years) Payout ratio around 42–45%, which is a healthy level.Bai Gui said: "When others abandon, I take; when others take, I give." Looking at this week's sideways market, I feel deeply. During the harvest, many sell off, but he quietly collects the grain; when demand rises, he chooses the right time to distribute. Essentially, this is understanding the cycle under collective sentiment. The market for Bitcoin is the same. Most people wait for the market to heat up before thinking about entering. Chip turnover mostly happens during these quiet, dull consolidation periods. Many can't endure the loneliness and leave, and the foreshadowing of a reversal is often planted at this time. Tools and market conditions keep evolving, but human nature remains unchanged. There's no need to force catching every wave; keep your rhythm and patiently wait for the opportunity that suits you. $BTC $ETH Just saw a message, this web3vc guy probably can't hold on and is about to cut losses! This guy just withdrew 1,793,000 $UNI from Venus, worth over 13 million dollars, and then immediately transferred it all to Binance. Why do I say he's about to cut losses? Because he withdrew this batch of UNI from Binance last year at a high price of $9.12! Everyone knows how much UNI has dropped now. If he sells it directly on Binance this time, he'll definitely lose 3.17 million dollars! Over three million dollars, several luxury villas just gone like that, it hurts to watch. Usually, when coins are withdrawn from lending platforms and transferred to exchanges, nine times out of ten it's to sell. Either he really can't hold on and wants to stop the loss, or he's afraid the lending position will be liquidated if the price drops further, so he has to sell first to save himself. With such a large amount of UNI, if it really gets dumped, us small retail investors will definitely suffer again.$SNDK This short position is based on a combination of fundamental bearish factors and technical breakdown resonance. $MAGIC The market and news show that the storage giant is withdrawing to preserve capital, causing the sector to pull back overall and sentiment to collapse directly. The price has dropped continuously from the high of 1806 with consecutive bearish candles; the 4-hour moving averages have all turned downward and are diverging (MA5:1588/MA10:1608/MA20:1637). The current price at 1590 is approaching the 24-hour low of 1577. I opened a short at 1646.4 (75x leverage), targeting the trend continuation after structural deterioration, with a return of over 2.5 times. $ZEC However, 75x leverage is extremely extreme. After probing the bottom at 1577, there is a small-scale stabilization, with volume shrinking to 315k. The 1608-1637 range has become a strong resistance for the rebound, with heavy trapped positions. New coins plus TradFi attributes cause large volatility; during market closure phases, beware of spikes. I have already set protections to lock in profits, and the base position will watch the 1577 breakdown situation; if it doesn't break, expect a rebound. High leverage only aims for quick in and out; preserving principal is the core. Feel free to discuss. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #PIMCO warns 10-year US Treasury yield could reach 6% 【US Treasury yields are almost hitting 6%, who does $BTC still want to borrow courage from?】 PIMCO has even put the possibility of the 10-year US Treasury yield hitting 6% on the table, which is no small matter. Currently, the 10-year yield has already surpassed 5.2%, and the 30-year yield once surged to 5.73%, showing significant pressure from long bond sell-offs. On October 8, the US auctioned $22 billion in 30-year Treasury bonds, with yields reaching 5.618%, the highest since 2000. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.54, indicating buyers have not disappeared, but such high interest rates are required to find takers. Bonds are not unsellable; it’s just that borrowing costs for the US government are rising. Meanwhile, the market is already voting with its feet: as of October 8, US stock funds saw a net outflow of $5.11 billion in one week, and Bitcoin spot ETFs have also experienced large-scale redemptions, with a net outflow of about $487 million on October 7 alone. A short-term rebound in BTC does not mean macro pressures have disappeared. For now, don’t treat 6% as an inevitable outcome; it’s not PIMCO’s baseline forecast. But as long as oil prices, inflation, and US Treasury supply continue to exert pressure, high yields will raise funding costs, making it difficult for BTC and altcoins to remain unaffected. Conversely, if yields continue to fall and ETFs stabilize inflows again, that would indicate this round of pressure is easing. At present, I’m more inclined to control positions and wait for the market to provide answers rather than rushing to bottom-fish.BTC has risen above 80,000, is it time to buy the dip or take profits? At 57,000, everyone was afraid of a drop; at 80,000, they start boldly chasing the rally. The market hasn't changed, what has changed is people's mindset. They don't dare to buy at the low, but fear missing out at the high, ultimately being driven by emotions. The biggest enemy in trading has never been the market itself, but greed and fear. Do you think BTC can continue to rise, or is it time to be cautious? $BTC $ETH #BTC #ETH #CryptoMarket #CheckInWithOKX2049$JUP I didn't make much judgment, just held on a bit longer, didn't expect it to really pay off. During the repeated fluctuations in the session, watching JUP, no one took it on the way up, strong sell orders, low trading volume, I signaled a high short wait for a breakout. Shorted at 0.3773, dropped to 0.3675, floating profit +131.19%, this gain feels good, the wait was worth it. First reduce at +131.19%, protect the remaining +131.19% to the cost price, don't give back profits if it rebounds, let profits run if it continues to drop. Better to miss a limit-up than to catch a falling knife and end up with a bloody hand. The money earned is the realization of your understanding; the money lost is the flaw in your understanding. Miss it and don't chase, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify immediately. $LAB $SOL BTC 已经反弹至昨日计划中的做空区域附近，但第一止盈目标仍未触及。 昨晚 BTC 最高反弹至 83,499.9 美元，进入此前关注的 83,000–83,500 压力区，随后回落至 82,241.5 美元，距离第一目标位 80,500 美元还有一段距离。 目前价格在 82,500 美元附近运行。未来 1–3 天，短线思路仍以等待反弹后的做空机会为主，但当前位置不适合盲目追空。 一、反弹不代表弱势结构已经扭转 从技术结构来看，日线 EMA21 和 4 小时 EMA21 均位于 83,100 美元附近，BTC 目前仍受到均线压制，尚未有效站回关键区域。 过去 24 小时，BTC 价格上涨约 1.1%，但以 BTC 计价的未平仓合约量（OI）反而下降约 0.5%。这种价格上涨、持仓量减少的组合，更像是部分空头回补带来的反弹，暂时还不足以证明多头已经掌握主动权。 此外，10 月 7 日至 8 日，BTC 现货 ETF 累计净流出约 7.29 亿美元，资金面仍需要进一步观察。 二、今日继续等待压力位，不在中间位置开仓 当前策略依旧是耐心等待，不急于在震荡区间中部进场。 - 关注压力区： 83,#PIMCO警告10年期美债收益率或达6% PIMCO warns: 10-year US Treasury yield may reach 6% Bond giant PIMCO's Chief Investment Officer Ivascyn warns that the 10-year US Treasury yield could rise from the current approximately 5.29% to 6% in the short term, marking the first time since 2000.‌ Triple pressure combined. The US-Iran war pushes up oil prices, increasing sensitivity to energy inflation; US public debt continues to expand, pushing up term premiums; the AI capital expenditure boom brings massive corporate financing demand, competing with the government for long-term capital. Additionally, hedge funds are stopping losses on leveraged US Treasury positions, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of "rising yields → forced liquidation → further rise."‌ 5.5% is the risk asset pressure line. Ivascyn clearly states that if yields rise to 5.5% or above, there will be "significant weakness" in the stock and credit markets.‌ BTC is currently priced around 82,600, down nearly 3% this week, fluctuating between 82,000-83,000. Historical data shows that Bitcoin's linear correlation with interest rates is generally weak, but a risk-free return above 5% does limit its upside. Resistance is at 84,500, support at 81,800. Some positions have stop-losses below 81,500; short positions wait for a pullback to 82,000-82,500 to stabilize before entering again. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Finally waited for $MAGIC to reverse and pick up, opening a long position. Directly following what I consider the opening logic: ① Large volume support During the sharp drop, there was an enormous trading volume, but a long lower shadow formed near 0.097, indicating active capital is buying in, and the bears can't push it down anymore. ② Fibonacci key level + long lower shadow candlestick support 0.1036 is the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level, and the price just closed near this level with a long lower shadow, doubly confirming the support is effective. ③ Follow the major trend, against the minor trend The major trend is upward (rising from 0.06 to 0.16, a 160% increase). The 15-minute chart shows a sharp pullback, which is a classic buy point of "following the major trend, against the minor trend." ④ Optimistic funding rate The long funding rate is relatively healthy, with no signs of overcrowded longs, indicating there is still room for the price to rise. ⑤ Attractive risk-reward ratio Stop loss at 0.095 (below previous low), take profit at 0.15 (near previous high), risk-reward ratio about 1:3.1. Such a ratio is worth a shot. ⑥ Additional logic: oversold + moving average support The 15-minute STOCHRSI dropped to 3.2, extremely oversold, indicating strong short-term rebound demand. Meanwhile, the price is close to the 4-hour EMA55 (0.09776), the lifeline of the mid-term trend, and the first touch likely provides support. Position plan: · Stop loss: 0.095 (hard stop loss) · First target: 0.120, close 30% · Second target: 0.131 (EMA9), close 30% · Ultimate target: 0.150, remaining 40% Risk warning: This is a counter-trend rebound trade. If the price breaks below 0.097 with volume, the long logic fails and stop loss must be unconditional. Position size controlled at 3x leverage, no heavy positions. What do you think about going long at this level? Is the risk-reward ratio worthwhile? If it were you, would you buy near 0.097 or wait for a second pullback confirmation? Feel free to discuss in the comments.Gold Weekend Analysis: The Position at 4195, Difficult Both Ways Spot gold at $4,195, up +1.2% this week. After a sharp drop of -6.6% in September, the market is finding balance in the $4,062-$4,404 range. Three macro bearish factors and one bullish factor: Bearish 1: The Fed raised rates to 3.75%-4% in September (first time in three years), with minutes more hawkish, likely to raise again before year-end. CME: 70% probability of a rate hike in December. Bearish 2: 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.3%, a multi-decade high, putting comprehensive pressure on zero-yield gold. Bearish 3: Dollar at an 18-month high, DXY around 102. Bullish: China has been buying for 23 consecutive months (77.47 million ounces); Q3 gold ETF net inflows hit a record $31 billion. But $18 billion bought in August at $4,300-$4,500 is fully trapped, creating heavy overhead resistance. Technical (4H): The full downtrend segment is from $4,690 to $4,090; now $4,195 is a secondary bottom rebound. MIX precisely bottomed at the green dot of $4,090 on September 28, then rose +$130. Resistance above at $4,220/$4,300/$4,450; support below at $4,100/$4,070/$4,000. Next week: October 14 CPI is the only major event, deciding between $4,100 or $4,220; before the October 27-28 FOMC, no major trend expected. High probability of box range oscillation between $4,100-$4,300. Small coins only surge strongly when there is capital pushing them; without anyone pushing, there's an 80% chance of getting stuck. Without a narrative, you get stuck for years, so never put faith in small coins. Go long or short for 10% gains and then immediately exit.After the World Cup, the development directions of leading prediction markets have gradually diverged. Kalshi consolidates its off-chain, compliance, and sports specialization advantages, while expanding into Perp DEX perpetuals. Polymarket focuses on the US market and Perp DEX perpetuals but has reduced feedback and attention from the Web3 community. Predict Fun specializes in short-term crypto price movement markets and supports CEX event contracts. The first two seem to be drifting further from Web3; Kalshi has always been centralized, and Polymarket operates with a Web2 mindset. Although both are working on Perp DEX, their goals remain to compete for valuation and broaden non-prediction business to maintain high valuations. Predict Fun’s approach is more native, using short-term price movements as the foundation, continuously deepening sports, esports, TradFi, and Asian markets. With Meme-driven crypto users holding positions for much shorter times, this new trading form of short-term price movement/event contracts has the potential to gain more trading volume in the future. To some extent, betting on Predict Fun’s valuation is also a bet on this time-sliced market.The market continues to slowly grind upwards, with altcoins showing significantly stronger rebounds. $AAVE has surged by four points, making me a bit stunned looking at my positions. Right now, I really want to just cash out and run. The $ETH 100x short still has some floating profit left, but the gains keep shrinking back and forth, while the floating loss on the AAVE short keeps expanding. The weekend's expected bull trap scenario I had in mind shows no signs of weakening; the price keeps rising slightly, making holding the position increasingly agonizing. With 100x leverage, I simply can't afford a sustained rebound; a single spike could wipe out all profits or even cause liquidation. I'm really conflicted now, unsure whether to just close the position to secure the remaining profit or grit my teeth and hold on, waiting for the waterfall drop expected on Monday. I'd like to ask everyone, what would you choose in this situation? #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 $CAP really is a wild coin, launching surprise attacks over the weekend. Looking at CAP's chart, I just exclaimed, wow. While the market was dead silent over the weekend, it went straight from 0.063 to 0.10, a surge of 23%. Volume reached 62.75 million U, MACD golden cross—clearly the whales took advantage of the weekend's low liquidity to launch a sudden pump with a small amount of funds. These small-cap new coins pump hard and crash even harder. Current price is 0.091, definitely not chasing the high to become a bag holder. If you hold it, reduce your position on rallies and lock in profits. If you don’t hold it, just let it play out and wait for a pullback and stabilization. Money is hard to make on wild coins; preserving your principal is more important than anything. Don’t get blinded by a single big bullish candle. This is just market analysis and does not constitute investment advice.6.26 million bitcoins are "naked running," is your coin among them? Here's a number you need to sync with today: According to Glassnode statistics, there are currently 6.26 million bitcoins lying in addresses with exposed public keys, accounting for 31.2% of the circulating supply. At the current price, that's over 500 billion USD. Don't panic yet, this doesn't mean Bitcoin has been hacked. The principle is simple: Bitcoin addresses usually hide the public key behind a hash; once you spend, the public key is permanently left on the chain. Reusing an address is like undressing once — among these 6.26 million, 4.33 million are due to address reuse. Exchanges are even more extreme: about 83% of Binance's coins are in exposed addresses, while Coinbase has only about 10%. The threat comes from the future: if quantum computers can really run Shor's algorithm, these exposed public keys could theoretically be reverse-engineered to private keys. Europol just said quantum computing won't break cryptocurrencies, but wallets are the main exposure point. So this issue is unrelated to short-term price (Bitcoin is currently around 82,800, sideways), it's a long-term security matter. There are only two things you can do: don't reuse addresses, and keep your wallet software updated. Is your coin usually used at one address until death? Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, control your position size. For reference only, not investment advice. #Bitcoin #EthereumI don't think volume will save the market over the weekend. Binance BTC trading volume during the Asian session was about $241 million, roughly half of the previous day. Spot price is about $82,757 (Beijing 16:22, Coinbase).I didn't expect $MET to break even, but it directly brought me profits. This service is really on point. While everyone was still hesitating, $MET was around 0.2957. After a pullback and stabilization, buying pressure strengthened, so I casually went long. The logic was simple—I just felt this position was worth trying. Watching the repeated fluctuations during the session was really torturous; I almost doubted myself. But $MET gave me some face, hitting 0.4151, +804.19%. Time for a nice meal. I took profits on 75% first, keeping 25% at cost price as protection. If it keeps rising, let the profits run; if it falls back, it won't turn gains into pain. Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair over pullbacks. Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. There will be more opportunities later; wait for a new structure to emerge before deciding. $SNDK $ETH Weekend consolidation, playing dead waiting for the wind, BTC 82841 slight drop, ETH 2495 slight rise Trading volume extremely shrunk, BTC only 288 million. Typical weekend dead time. US stock market closed, institutional funds stagnant. FOMC hawkish bias, CPI on October 14th looming overhead, no one dares to make a move. This kind of low-volume consolidation is specifically for pinning and stop-loss hunting, don't chase either up or down. My strategy is just two words: play dead. Hold spot positions tightly, absolutely no leverage, and definitely no reckless orders. Wait for next week's CPI release, the direction will naturally become clear, control your hands, and endure the dead time. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $ZEC [ID Perspective] The market is bottoming out, so why is ZEC's rebound weak? In the past few days, Bitcoin has fallen and entered a sideways phase, with ETH and ADA somewhat recovering. In contrast, ZEC's rebound strength is noticeably weaker, lacking the previous counter-trend momentum. Many remember that during market panic, privacy narratives play a role, and ZEC often resists declines. But after a big drop, when funds want to bet on a rebound, people prefer to rush into more elastic altcoins, leaving privacy themes aside. The story logic remains, but in the short term, the market depends on fund sentiment. Currently, ZEC passively follows Bitcoin, with no active buying seen. Don't blindly go long based on past counter-trend impressions. ZEC futures positions are heavy; if the market dips again, it will also drop sharply without mercy. Key points to watch next: whether it catches up with a late rally or continues to underperform altcoins, which will reveal fund attitudes toward this narrative.Those still waiting for confirmation are watching; I've already gained +189. $SUI 50x long, from 1.0726 to 1.1131. 1.0726 is the previous wave's 0.618 retracement plus the previous high overlap, a triple support resonance. Don't chase the breakout at the inflection point; this is the optimal odds solution. 50x leverage amplifies 189.25%. Move the stop loss up, keep holding. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $SOL short position with 100x leverage, opened at 120.63 and closed at 109.87, floating profit of 891.98%. This trade captured the main downtrend cleanly, but don't be dazzled by nearly 9 times the profit. What does 100x leverage mean? If the asset rebounds about 1.1% (to around 111), this nearly 9x profit would be halved or even wiped out. 109.87 is right near the 110 whole number key level, with 108-110 below being a dense area of previous buy orders and weekly low support. The RSI indicator has long been oversold. Around 4 PM, the main players like to use the key level to defend the price with sudden spikes to shake out positions. I’m not betting on this 0.25% buffer; I’m directly closing 95% of the position to lock in profits at the current price, leaving 5% as a base position with a hard stop loss at 111. If it breaks 108, I’ll watch 105 and take it as it comes; if it doesn’t hit, no worries. Conditional orders are set, and I’ll turn off the device to take profits. The numbers on the screen are illusions; only the balance credited to the account is real money. $BTC $ETH #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Ledger lost 86 million USD: The mnemonic phrase was read the moment you wrote it down 🔐 On-chain analyst Specter tracked down 10 suspicious addresses, collecting over 86 million USD from hundreds of victim wallets across BTC, ETH, and TRON chains. Ledger officials have not yet confirmed the total loss; current clues all point to the same source: Malaysian distributor CryptoBilis. 📍 Disclosed attack route (analysis by SlowMist 23pds) 1️⃣ Modified devices sold through normal channels, with intact shrink wrap packaging 2️⃣ A board hidden under the screen buffer pad: microcontroller + LTE module + eSIM + antenna 3️⃣ You initialize the device, the mnemonic phrase displays on the screen, and the module reads it from the SPI screen line 4️⃣ After setup, data is sent back to the attacker via 4G The secure chip can prevent private keys from being directly exported but cannot control what is displayed on the screen. SlowMist also noted that this path and hardware implantation still require independent verification. Whether Ledger can provide the root cause and affected batches will directly impact the reputation of the entire cold wallet sector. Where did you buy your cold wallet? The above is personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. #三星钱包将上线USDC跨境转账 #Ledger调查东南亚经销商渠道资金损失 "Small Wealth Brings Peace" Weekly Review (10/3 – 10/10): How I "Held On" This Time 1. The Result First I made money this week. All 7 contract trades won, with a 100% win rate, earning a total of 273 yuan; the entire account ended with a net gain of +118.67. On the surface, it looks pretty good, but I know deep down—this win was a bit shaky. 2. What I Went Through The market started the week with a sharp drop. On the 3rd, I lost a small 63, recovered 166 on the 4th, thought it was okay, but then lost consecutively on the 5th and 7th. On the 8th, I lost directly -2.3K in one day, with the account’s maximum cumulative loss reaching 3.28K. Honestly, those two days were quite tough. I didn’t run away; I chose the "bullet strategy"—adding a layer after each drop, averaging down the cost, betting that after a full drop it would rebound. On the 9th, the market indeed made a V-shaped recovery, and I earned 3K in one trade, filling the entire hole and making a small profit. 3. What I Did Right First, my mindset held up. At the deepest drawdown, I didn’t panic and cut losses—that’s the truth. Many people lose big money not because of bad judgment but because of panic; I got through that. Second, I was very tight with contracts, using small positions for quick in-and-out trades, not clinging to any single trade. All 7 trades were closed with profits, avoiding being swept up by big market moves. Third, I was decisive in cashing out the rebound on the 9th, without "waiting to see more." 4. But I Have to Be Honest With Myself 1. The essence this time was "holding and averaging down," not trading. I won because the market gave me a V-shaped reversal. If the 9th hadn’t rebounded and continued to drift down? My -3.28K loss would have turned into -6K, -10K, averaging down until I ran out of resources. This approach naturally has a high win rate but terrible payout—earning small profits eight times, then losing it all once, possibly even losing principal. 2. The risk-reward ratio is completely unbalanced. I earned only 273 yuan from all contract wins, while the single-day maximum loss on the asset side was 2300 yuan. The system’s "risk-reward ratio" shows `--`, meaning: I have no real stop-loss to calculate; all losses were borne hard, not cut off by stop-loss. This is a major hidden risk. 3. A 100% win rate sounds impressive but is actually scary. Someone who never stops losses will naturally have a near 100% win rate—until one day it goes straight to zero. My current curve is propped up by this. 5. Rules I Set for Myself Next Week 1. Limit averaging down to three layers, with fixed intervals between layers, and set a total position cap. If it still drops after reaching the cap, accept the loss and exit—no more "waiting to see." 2. Before entering each trade, write down the maximum loss allowed (e.g., 2% of principal), place stop-loss orders to let the system calculate the real risk-reward ratio. 3. When the market drops sharply, pause and think: should I average down or stay out and wait for a right-side signal? If I had done nothing on the 8th and entered all at once after confirming the rebound on the 9th, the drawdown would have been much smaller, and profits might not have been less. 4. Find time to break down the 3K profit on the 9th: how much was market-given rebound bonus, and how much was my correct judgment. The former is not replicable; the latter is my real skill. 6. Summary in One Sentence I won this week by holding on and by mindset, but holding trades is not a strategy—it’s luck hitching a ride. Since I made money this time and my mind is clear, I’ll quickly set the rules—because when I face the first big one-way drop that doesn’t bounce back, there might not be a next time.$MAGIC - Pressure range: 0.124~0.128 (first strong resistance), extreme test 0.133~0.138 The gaming sector's funds are concentrated and rallying together, with short-term shorts continuously being stopped out. As long as the sector's heat does not quickly fade, there is still room for inertia-driven rallies; however, after a single-day surge, a large amount of leveraged long positions accumulate, risking a rapid 10%+ pullback at any time. Absolutely avoid chasing highs or adding positions. - Support range: 0.106~0.109 (short-term lifeline), 0.097~0.101 (strong support zone) A volume breakout below 0.106 signals the end of this round of capital-driven rally, with profit-taking concentrated and a rapid correction following.$ETH has rebounded from the low point this round, looking like it’s stabilizing, but active selling pressure in the order book is still suppressing the price, and institutions are still withdrawing funds through ETFs. This is definitely not a bottoming-out scenario with volume expansion. First, look at volume and price. The drop to the low point was a liquidity sweep, where stop losses and leveraged long positions were forcefully liquidated, then the price bounced back to the mid-level. But the volume on the rebound is off—the open interest is decreasing, indicating old positions are being closed rather than new money coming in; active sell volume in the order book still far exceeds active buy volume, so the rebound lacks solid capital confirmation. Next, look at the resistance above. The 2500 to 2600 resistance zone has been tested three times this month and each time the price fell back, a typical dense trading and trapped position area. Every rebound to this level is suppressed, and the selling pressure above hasn’t been fully absorbed. ETFs continue to see net outflows, institutional demand has temporarily cooled off, and without this support, retail investors alone can’t hold it up. Characterizing the current position: the price is stuck between the resistance zone below and the long-term demand zone above. Although the CVD shows marginal improvement, it remains negative, meaning selling pressure has only weakened, not reversed. The ETH/BTC ratio is still at multi-month lows, clearly weaker relative to Bitcoin. On the right side, focus on one thing: a volume-backed close above the 2500-2600 resistance zone, along with ETF outflows turning into net inflows. Until then, every rebound looks more like a pause in a downtrend. Don’t guess the bottom; wait for volume and flow to speak.#美俄达成柴油供应安排，霍尔木兹风险仍未解 The US and Russia have reached a diesel supply agreement, with the US issuing a temporary license and Russia set to release millions of tons of diesel globally. Following the news, diesel and crude oil prices briefly declined. However, it is important to note that this only alleviates the diesel supply gap; the geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. My view: The market is prone to misinterpret this energy agreement as a complete resolution of the Middle East crisis. The agreement addresses diesel export restrictions, but the core conflict over Strait navigation and US-Iran confrontation remains unsettled. If shipping through the Strait is disrupted again, oil prices will quickly rebound, and inflation expectations will resurge. From a macro perspective, repeated oil price increases will delay Federal Reserve rate cuts, push up US Treasury yields, and suppress risk assets like BTC. The short-term oil price drop will temporarily relieve market pressure, but geopolitical black swan events could occur at any time, so this should not be seen as a trend-driven positive. Trading strategy: Do not blindly chase risk assets with contracts. This positive development is a short-term sentiment recovery, not a macro turning point. Continue to closely monitor Strait navigation, Brent crude prices, and long-term US Treasury yields. If tensions escalate again, prepare risk controls and reduce positions in advance. Everyone says that October 10th last year was the worst day for coin drops But the truth is, even if you caught the exact bottom wick of top coins like ETH, BNB, SOL, we are still far from the peak now. ETH at 3.4k back then was a disaster, but the upcoming 3k mark is a luxury $BTC $ETH $SOL The overall market has also been falling these past few days, and SOL has been dropping even harder. On 10-08, the market fell less than four points from its high to low, while $SOL SOL dropped nine and a half points. Looking only at its own chart, it just seems like a bad market, but placing it next to the overall market reveals those extra points of decline. The difference is shown in the SOL to $BTC price ratio. On 10-06, it was still at 0.00141, but slid more than 5% in four days to 0.00132. The money selling SOL has been more urgent than the money selling the overall market; funds are moving away from it to elsewhere. On 10-10, this price ratio stopped falling for the first time during the session and even recovered a bit. SOL dropped a bit over one point, the market dropped half a point, and the gap between the two narrowed to the smallest in this period. The continuously declining price ratio finally paused. To judge whether a fallen coin is being managed, just watching its own rise and fall isn’t enough. Pulling out its price ratio against the overall market and reading them together is necessary. If the price ratio keeps falling daily, the weaker side hasn’t finished selling, and money is moving out. When the price ratio stops falling and levels off, the relative selling pressure has mostly been released, and the remaining task is to repair alongside the overall market. That said, leveling off in the price ratio is still far from turning strong. It will take several days of holding up against the fall to exchange for strength. For now, it’s at most not dragging behind anymore—the first step of recovery has just been taken. Going forward, don’t just count how many points SOL has risen. Pull out its price ratio against the overall market and take a look. If the price ratio is rising daily, the money that moved out is returning.$BTC stabilized around the 82,000 level, currently trading near 82,500. On Thursday, it dipped to 80,427, the lowest since early September, then slightly rebounded about 1.38% in 24 hours. ETH simultaneously bounced back to around 2,475, with the total market capitalization rising 2.1% to 2.89 trillion USD. Sentiment shows divergence. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 63, up 5 points from yesterday, with a 7-day average of 66, still in the greed zone but noticeably down from 71 on October 2. Liquidations in the past 24 hours totaled 147.53 million USD, with shorts accounting for 72%, about 106 million USD. BTC short liquidations were 47.24 million USD, 2.6 times that of longs. Shorts are being squeezed, but the index is falling, indicating mixed bullish and bearish expectations. On the funding side, signs of stabilization appear: Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 21.12 million USD yesterday, with BlackRock's IBIT leading at 22.38 million USD net inflow, while Fidelity's FBTC had a net outflow of 3.58 million USD, marking a preliminary recovery from previous large outflows. From the chart perspective, the 83,000 to 83,500 range has shifted from support to resistance, 82,300 is short-term support at the Bollinger Bands middle line, and 80,800 at the lower band is strong support. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve's September minutes show most officials support one more rate hike before year-end, with about a 68% chance of a hike in December. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 "$ALGO I've been watching this coin for quite a while. Honestly, apart from occasional pumps, no one really uses it for an ecosystem. Opening a short at 0.138 was just because I thought it should drop." It dropped from 0.13892 to 0.11548, the main token fell nearly 17%, and with 50x leverage, I got 843%. There's not much to analyze on the chart; it's just an old coin with no buyers. Every time it pumps, it's just to lure people in. It can't even hold 0.12 now, let's see if it can reach 0.11 below. My mindset on this trade is pretty steady; I don't plan to bottom-fish or add positions. The base position is break-even, the rest is just hanging to watch 0.11. I'll wait until there's volume breaking below 0.11 to act; if it doesn't break, I won't move. Anyway, I've already made several times profit, no rush. $BTC $ETH #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 The founder leaving doesn't mean the coin is dead. The BTC founder has been missing for 15 years, the DOGE founder sold to buy a car, yet both remain among the largest coins. But you have to know. For some coins, the founder sold and ran away long ago, and if you're still holding on, it's you. Even if the founder stays, it can't save everything. Some coins on the "still at the helm" list have dropped more than 90% from their all-time highs. I know, when buying coins no one looks at the founder, only the charts. Actually, the first question to ask is this: Is the person who started this thing still around? Is their money still in it? Save this. Before buying a new coin, open this and check where the founder is today. Final chapter.
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