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BTC Analysis for the Last Hour (October 12, 2026)
BTC is currently trading around 83,744 USDT, down slightly by 0.14% in 24 hours, with an intraday high of 83,999.9 and a low of 82,752.
Market Features: This morning, BTC quickly surged near 84,000 before triggering profit-taking by bulls. The 1-hour chart shows a pattern of a high-level consolidation after a spike and pullback. The last full hour candle had a return of only -0.01% with a volatility of 0.02%. The buy-sell depth ratio dropped to 0.08, with sell orders far outweighing buy orders, indicating extremely thin liquidity. The upper Bollinger Band at 83,944 acts as short-term resistance, while the middle band at 83,818 serves as the first support.
Capital Flow: The 8-hour average funding rate for contracts has fallen to -0.0044%, a nine-month low, meaning shorts pay longs, and leveraged traders are overall betting on a downside. However, the Fear and Greed Index remains in the "Greed" zone between 55-63, showing a clear divergence between derivatives and spot market sentiment. If the price stabilizes, short covering could trigger a short squeeze rebound.
Key Levels: Resistance above at 84,200-84,700, support below at 82,200-82,700. The core variable this week is the US CPI on October 14. Before that, the market is likely to remain range-bound between 82,000-84,200, with possible spikes but no trend break. Trading strategy: avoid blindly chasing longs; wait for candle confirmation of breakout or breakdown signals. $BTC Three things to watch this week:
1. 10/14 20:30 US September CPI (Beijing time) — Market expects headline YoY to rise from 3.4% to 3.6%–3.7%, core around 2.5%.
This is the last inflation data before the 10/28 FOMC. Core CPI exceeding 0.2% → raises rate hike probability, USD and yields rise, BTC under pressure; significantly below expectations → could become a catalyst for a rebound.
2. 10/15 PPI + retail sales, and IMF/World Bank annual meetings (10/12–18, Bangkok).
3. Intensive token unlocks: Aptos unlocks 11.31 million APT on 10/12 (also ending a four-year vesting period, with subsequent monthly releases dropping sharply);
Arbitrum midweek about 92.65 million ARB; Filecoin ends six-year vesting on 10/15, new supply expected to decrease by about 75%; also Starknet 127 million STRK, Cronos 1.17 billion CRO #CPI and PPI releases imminent, rate hike expectations face a test 1. BTC Trading Strategy:
• For those holding no positions and watching: firmly avoid chasing highs. It is recommended to patiently wait above 83,500. If the price rebounds to the 84,300-84,800 range and shows stagnation or a long upper shadow, consider light short positions with a stop loss set above 85,100.
• For long position holders: patiently wait for the price to pull back to the 82,500 - 82,800 range. If a stop-fall signal appears here, consider light long entries with a target of 84,000. If it breaks below 82,000, exit decisively and wait for a secondary stabilization near 81,300.
2. ETH Trading Strategy:
• Overall weak: ETH is weaker than BTC, and the liquidation wall above 2,580-2,620 is extremely heavy, making a breakout very difficult.
• High sell and low buy: The current price at 2,546 is in the middle range, so it is not advisable to act. It is recommended to reduce positions or short near the rebound at 2,580 - 2,600, with a stop loss set above 2,620.
• Long position ambush: Focus on the strong support zone below 2,480 - 2,500. This is the strongest defense point indicated by the liquidation chart. You can place orders to go long in this range, with a stop loss set below 2,450. $SOL This isn't a rebound; it's like CPR for my empty account, right?
During the intraday plunge, everyone was still watching. I saw the SOL buy orders strengthen, the pullback didn't break support, so I judged there was capital backing it and signaled to go long. Around 110.02, the position wasn't perfect but good enough.
Just switched the software to the background, and it suddenly surged up. Current price 112.07, floating profit +186.32%. Nailed the timing, everyone on board must be waking up smiling, really awesome.
Hold as long as the trend isn't broken; if it breaks, get out. Don't fall in love with stocks.
Take profit on 70% of the long position first, keep 30% for cost price protection, move stop loss to cost price. Pocket the big gains first, don't let profits turn uncomfortable.
The money you make is the realization of your understanding; the money you lose is a flaw in your understanding.
Chasing highs easily gets you stuck at the peak; if you miss it, don't chase. Wait for the next shot, look for a new structure to go long again.
$LAB $BNB Had fun checking the chain this morning.
A huge whale sold 410 BTC and swapped it for 14,000 ETH on a DEX. Around the same time, an old wallet from the Ethereum Foundation sent over 4,000 ETH to Kraken.
Honestly, you don’t need to worry much about that Foundation wallet; it’s coins from ten years ago, and they’ve been moving them to exchanges since ETH was $658, so they don’t care about the price at all.
The whale swapping BTC for ETH is much more interesting—it's a sizable amount and was done directly on-chain. I’ll be keeping a close eye on ETH/BTC these days.Seeing “institutional positioning,” and assuming it’s a group of big funds holding on with you to the end, can easily lead to losses.
CME has previously introduced Bitcoin cash arbitrage: trading based on the price difference between spot and futures. Holding spot or spot ETFs while shorting on the futures side is a common combination. The purchase records are real, but the entire set of trades may not be purely bullish.
This doesn’t prove that all recent ETF funds are doing arbitrage, nor does it explain every price drop. It’s just a reminder that when you see the buying half, don’t automatically add the other half of “firmly bullish” for institutions—there isn’t enough evidence.
Long-term allocation, arbitrage, and liquidity provision have different purposes and completely different exit conditions. Some can wait for years, others close positions as soon as the spread narrows. They’re all called “institutions,” which sounds like a big lineup but doesn’t reveal how long the money will stay.
I remain interested in BTC’s long-term logic, but to explain the pressure, we still need to look at real spot demand, hedging, and adjustments in existing holdings—not just rely on a single buying leaderboard as the answer.
The most frustrating part is, you think you’ve found a long-term partner, but they’ve already written their exit conditions, and when the price falls, they might even have another position hedging for them.
#Institutional positioning continues, so why is BTC still under pressure 10.12 Erbing Public Silk Road
$ETH Long Position Silk Road
Entry Range: Light long position near 2530 on pullback
Stop Loss Defense: Around 2510 (execute plan B if Bollinger lower band breaks down ⬇️)
Target Levels
First Target: Near 2560 (touching Bollinger upper band)
Second Target: Below 2590 (below moving average)
Third Target: Near 2600
Long-term Target: Near 2630
Operational Factors: Price rebounds and stands above Bollinger upper band at 2551, Bollinger bands opening upward, recent rebound accompanied by moderate volume increase, capital inflow support is decent, but volume and price have not shown explosive growth, indicating the long position has not formed absolute strength yet. Resistance near 2590 may cause selling pressure; execute plan B at this level.
Plan B
Break above 2580, break below long position stop loss at 2510, or if long position entry range is not reached, short positions can be operated.
Entry Range: Wait for breakthrough above 2580-2560
Stop Loss Defense: 2600
Target Levels
First Target: Near 2530
Second Target: Near 2510 (lower band support)
Third Target: Below 2480
Long-term Target: Below 2460
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 W surged from 0.017 to 0.0286, more than doubling in just over three days. Such a sharp upward move is intimidating to watch, but what's more worth pondering is what exactly the money is rushing for.
First, let's look at the market: OKEx spot current price is 0.02825, 24h up 28%, 24h low 0.01697, high 0.02862, nearly a 70% rise from the low; trading volume is 9.41 million USDT, market cap 184 million USD, mid-cap but relatively thin liquidity, this kind of move doesn't require a huge amount of capital to push up.
This surge isn't driven by new announcements today, but more by the resonance of capital and narrative: net spot inflows have been positive continuously, buying started entering since the evening of the 11th, hovering around 0.0148 for several hours before suddenly accelerating; narratively, Wormhole has been prominent lately, HYPE uses it for cross-chain transfers, SHIB also entered Solana via Sunrise, the cross-chain adoption story keeps giving the sector life.
But a cold splash of water is needed: RSI has hit 82, price has long left the upper Bollinger Band behind, 24h volume under 10 million USDT against a 180 million market cap means turnover isn't high, in this news vacuum this move is essentially an emotional gamble, the biggest risk is no positive news arriving and a profit-taking bearish candle coming first.
Watch two levels: holding above 0.0286 with volume can keep the rally going, a pullback to 0.0264 down to the MA5 at 0.0255 is a normal rest. High beta asset, don't chase at the peak of sentiment, DYOR, not investment advice.
$W #Wormhole #CrossChain$STRK relies on hyping quantum Bitcoin to boost sentiment, but it hasn't even touched quantum entanglement—it's just a big bluffSemiconductor equipment demand often signals the health of the broader technology cycle, and a major supplier's quarterly report can ripple through risk assets including digital tokens. The transmission to crypto liquidity and sentiment is indirect but persistent. Strong orders for advanced lithography tools can suggest robust capital expenditure in the tech sector, which historically supports investor appetite for growth-oriented assets. In a bull scenario, positive results could reinforce a na4-hour long-short ratio slightly favors longs, yet short positions are being annihilated? The truth behind the dual long-short liquidation of BTC/ETH/HYPE
HYPE, BTC, and ETH all slightly favor longs, but the gap between longs and shorts is minimal (3%-8%), indicating the market is in a typical "balanced game + high volatility shakeout" state.
Core long-short ratio breakdown (4-hour cycle)
HYPE: The most contested long-short ratio, with OKX showing a clear long bias
Overall: Long 51.5% / Short 48.5%; OKX: Long 53.4% / Short 46.6%. No extreme altcoin sentiment yet, OKX longs slightly dominant.
BTC: Evenly split, a tug-of-war between whales and retail traders
Overall: Long 51.3% / Short 48.7%; OKX: Long 51.6% / Short 48.4%. The difference is only 2.6%-3.2%, matching the scenario of "Big Brother Maji's 600 million short position floating loss" versus retail long positions.
ETH: Strongest long bias, shorts have been heavily liquidated
Overall: Long 52.4% / Short 47.6%; OKX: Long 54.2% / Short 45.8%. Coupled with the previous 12-hour short liquidation (ETH shorts liquidated 25.25 million), remaining longs also face volatility tests.
The underlying logic of "slightly favoring longs" yet "short positions being wiped out"
Long-short ratio ≠ profit-loss ratio. The proportion of long and short participants is balanced, but short positions (such as 10-50x high leverage) trigger cascading liquidations with slight upward moves; meanwhile, OKX longs are more aggressive (all three assets show higher long ratios than overall), and short-term (1-hour) longs also face instant liquidations.Don't rush to chase the rally; the easiest time to lose money in the crypto space is often when you think you finally understand the market.
What you really need to watch isn't how much Bitcoin has risen, but whether this surge is driven by real capital entering the market or shorts being forced to cover, artificially pushing the price up.
Watch the direction of big BTC, and watch whether ETH has the capital willingness to follow. If BTC moves up but ETH lags behind and altcoins show no profit effect, don't rush to call a bull market; conversely, if BTC holds steady and ETH rallies with volume, then market sentiment has a real chance to warm up.
One more very important point: the more everyone thinks the market will rise, the more you need to guard against a sudden reversal. Those chasing highs fear pullbacks, shorts fear a short squeeze, and the market loves to punish those who think the market is already decided.
The real test this week is the US CPI and PPI. Latest market reports show BTC oscillating around $83,000, ETH hovering near $2,500; in the previous week, BTC and ETH spot ETF funds saw significant outflows, with ETH ETFs experiencing net outflows for 9 consecutive trading days. The inflation data on Wednesday and Thursday could be the trigger for the next market move.
Next, watch three signals: whether BTC can hold $80,000, whether ETH can rally with volume, and whether ETF funds flow back in. Don't bottom-fish just because of a drop, and don't chase longs just because of a rebound. First see what evidence the market provides, then decide which side to take. The money long $BTC holders earn is exactly what short sellers lose.
Long positions in $BTC amount to 1.84 billion with unrealized profits of 38.9 million, while shorts have lost 20 million in the same period.
How to interpret this: these two figures are not independent gains; one side's profit is the other's loss. Longs have unrealized gains of 38.9 million, shorts lost 20 million, and the 18.9 million difference is fees and open positions.
Who is placing orders: recently, 11.69 million sold, 7.85 million bought, with sell orders exceeding buy orders by 3.84 million. The price has risen, but active selling has never stopped.
$ETH is the same, with 10.82 million sold and 7.83 million bought.
Holding long term shows unrealized profits, not realized gains. To cash out, someone must buy at the high price; if no one buys, the 38.9 million is just a number on the screen.
#InstitutionalBTCPressure #TradingVoice $BTC $ETH Is the rebound just a flash in the pan? CPI is about to provide the answer
Gold prices stabilized and rebounded from the low of 4066, reaching a high of 4207. This rally is a recovery after an oversell, not a trend reversal. This rebound benefited from weaker non-farm payroll data, the market lowering Fed rate hike expectations, and geopolitical risk aversion support.
The key variable ahead is the September CPI. If inflation is lower than expected, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar will weaken, and the bulls' counterattack is likely to continue; if inflation exceeds expectations, rate hike expectations will heat up, and this rebound could easily face resistance and fall back.
In the long term, global central banks' continued gold purchases form a bottom support, but it is difficult to hedge against short-term rate disturbances caused by CPI.
Focus on the 4210-4220 resistance level and 4148 as the short-term bull-bear dividing line. Volatility will increase before the data release, so avoid blindly chasing the rally and prioritize risk control.🚨 The crypto market is experiencing a split trend! What truly matters is not just the price swings, but who is attracting the capital.
On the surface, BTC, ETH, and SOL show little volatility, but the internal capital logic of the market has changed. Some are betting on long-term value, while others just want to seize short-term opportunities. Who can outperform the market next may hinge on the rhythm of capital rotation.
🔥 $BTC: The long-term story is becoming more complete, but short-term challenges remain
The integration of traditional finance and crypto markets is still progressing, and the development of compliant trading infrastructure offers new possibilities for BTC's long-term market positioning. However, note that positive news does not equal immediate price increases. When incremental capital is insufficient, even the best long-term narratives may take time to reflect in the price.
⚡ $ETH: Technology continues to evolve, but the market is still waiting for a catalyst
ETH currently faces a key issue—not just price stagnation, but a lack of a strong independent narrative to attract new capital. Without ecosystem growth, capital inflows, or major events working together, short-term trends may still be influenced by overall market sentiment.
🎯 $SOL: High elasticity means opportunity, but also greater volatility
Compared to simply waiting for trends, SOL is more likely to attract short-term capital attention. But the faster the capital rotation, the higher the risk of chasing rallies. What truly matters is not catching every rise, but having a trading plan in advance, managing position sizes, and knowing when to exit.
📊 Next, what the market really needs to watch is wha The peak of the last bull market was $69,000, and this round reached as high as $126,000, an increase of about 80%. Judging by this trend, even if the next round can still rise by 70%, it would already be quite good. After all, the gains in each bull market are gradually narrowing. Calculating by this ratio, 126,000 × 1.7 = $214,200, which can basically be regarded as the theoretical upper limit for the next round. Of course, personally, I even think BTC may not break through $200,000 in the next round. So, it's not that I am not optimistic about Bitcoin, but from the current price, the future upside and the risks to bear do not seem to match that well. Unless you can buy in at a low of $40,000–$50,000, entering now at $80,000 and holding for four years until selling at $200,000 would yield only about a 150% return. Considering the volatility and uncertainty over such a long period, this investment is not as attractive as one might imagine. On the other hand, if you hold 80 shares of CRCL, do you think it has more potential to rise to $200? Even a future surge to $2,000 is not entirely impossible. So, from another perspective: can you still easily imagine BTC rising to $2 million each now? This is my current view on BTC. At this stage, Bitcoin may be more suitable for traders using more than 20x leverage, betting on short-term long or short directions. But asAccount Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$MAGIC divergence narrowing mainly comes from the decline in the proportion of short positions in accounts. The proportion of short positions held rose slightly to 47.8%; accounts are still bearish, positions are still bullish.#Ledger Investigation Update: Thefts Temporarily Concentrated in a Single Channel
Message from the leader
The latest Ledger investigation shows that theft cases are mainly concentrated at the Southeast Asian distributor CryptoBilis, with no breaches found in the official direct sales channels so far. However, some European users have reported suspicious components found in devices purchased from local authorized dealers.
The biggest risk for hardware wallets is not the device itself, but the channel. Where you buy it from is more important than the brand. A tampered Ledger device may leak the mnemonic phrase during initialization. Third-party estimates put losses at over $86 million, and that’s only the known cases.
Therefore, always buy hardware wallets through official channels. Upon receipt, check if the packaging is intact, and the mnemonic phrase must be generated by the device itself—never use a pre-set one. If the source is questionable, transfer your assets to a new wallet as soon as possible.
I still hold $BTC long at 83000 and short at 86500, hedging with light positions. No one-sided bets before CPI. Long stop loss at 81500, target 86000; short stop loss at 87500, target 84500-85000. Reduce whichever side hits first.
On-chain security ultimately depends on yourself; keeping your private keys secret is paramount. Remember to use stop losses on your trades; don’t hold losing positions.
$BTC $ETH $STRKAfter a rapid decline, ETH has seen a strong short-term rebound and is now trying to reclaim some of the previously lost space. However, the rebound has not continued to expand. After rebounding from $2473 to $2554, it encountered resistance and has now fallen back to around $2536, with bulls and bears still vying for control. 🔍 **Short-term Market Analysis** Currently, the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages are concentrated in the $2510–$2520 range and are gradually diverging upward, with prices regaining the short-term moving average, indicating signs of short-term stabilization. 📌 **Key price levels to watch:** - **First support: $2512** — The 1-hour Supertrend trendline is an important reference for judging whether the short-term rebound can continue. - **Key Support: $2504** — If this level holds, there is still a chance for further short-term oscillation and recovery. - **Resistance Above: $2541** — Short-term resistance near the current price; effective breakout is needed to open further upside. - **Strong Breakout Level: $2554** — Previous rebound high; if it breaks through with increased volume and holds firm, it will be more favorable for the market to continue moving upward. 🎯 **Trading Strategy** Currently, ETH is trading near $2536; blindly chasing high prices just because of a short-term rebound is not recommended. Existing positions can focus on the support areas of $2512 and $2504. Under the premise that support is effective,Real trading day 182, today I traded the altcoin $RVN. This was a short position, a trend-following short.
This $RVN altcoin position had a maximum floating profit of about 15 points, but I planned to hold it longer, so I set a stop loss and then left it alone.
My entry price was 0.001846. This level had already been declining for a long time, with short-term oscillations, so I shorted.
The stop loss I set was also at a resistance level, but unfortunately it was triggered. Now $RVN has dropped again after hitting the stop loss. Just bad luck.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认 Bitcoin and Ethereum do not necessarily follow the same market logic every time.
If BTC continues to rise while ETH shows weakness, it indicates that market funds may still be more inclined toward Bitcoin.
However, if both BTC and ETH rise simultaneously, and ETH's gains start to surpass BTC's, the signal released is different. This may mean that the market's risk appetite is expanding, and funds are no longer focused solely on Bitcoin but are beginning to spread to Ethereum and other mainstream assets.
Of course, the performance of just one trading session is not enough to confirm that a trend has formed. But this change is worth continuous observation and should not be easily ignored.
What truly matters is not just whether BTC and ETH are rising, but who is rising stronger and what changes are happening in fund preferences. 10.12｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's plan is very clear: mainly short on Monday's rally, no chasing longs without volume recovery.
$BTC is currently around 83,800, having hovered around 83,000 for two days over the weekend, then pulled up to 84,200 in the Asian session. But it didn't even touch the 86,000 upper wick; funding rates are slowly falling, longs are still chasing, and if no one picks up in the US session, the price tends to give back gains.
$ETH is around 2,540, following the same rhythm as BTC, rebounding from 2,490 over the weekend to 2,555, but 2,580 also didn't hold.
This week's variable is Wednesday's CPI; the minutes already indicated another rate hike this year is appropriate, and Michigan inflation expectations are still rising. If CPI is hot, US Treasury yields will rise again, and BTC could retest 80,400 or even 79,000 at any time.
Strategy:
BTC: Short in the 84,500-86,000 range, target 80,400-79,000
ETH: Short in the 2,560-2,620 range, target 2,450-2,400
If BTC recovers 86,000 with volume, cancel shorts immediately, don't stubbornly hold.
Trading isn't about guessing ups or downs, it's about planning what to do if it rises, what to do if it falls, and admitting mistakes when wrong. Think clearly before acting.
What do you think will happen after CPI is released? Will BTC first drop to 79,000 or directly recover 86,000? Institutions are buying aggressively, but the price just won't rise.
Last week, Strive spent $169 million to buy 2,000 $BTC at an average price of $84,422, bringing their total holdings to 29,462 coins. Morgan Stanley's total holdings rose to 10,600 coins. Whales increased their holdings by about 15,000 $BTC within 72 hours, all holding onto their chips.
But the price just didn't go up.
⭕️ The 10-year US Treasury yield remains around 5.3%, which naturally disadvantages cash-flow-free assets like BTC.
⭕️ ETFs are withdrawing. This week, Bitcoin spot ETFs had a cumulative net outflow of $678.9 million.
⭕️ Hedging is offsetting buying pressure. While institutions buy spot, the futures side is hedging. Spot selling pressure and futures hedging are simultaneously consuming buying power.
So BTC is stuck in a tug-of-war around 83,000.
Institutions are indeed buying, and selling pressure is also real.
Next, we will watch the CPI on October 14 and see if ETF fund flows can turn positive again.
#机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 I'm serious about writing posts. Setting off again today.
Still starting with BTC. BTC is like a box of chocolates; before opening, you don't know its shape. When opened, the wonderful patterns and overflowing aroma instantly intoxicate you, but initially, it tastes bitter and sour. Only by slowly savoring it does that rich sweetness truly become mine.
BTC's price yesterday started around 82900, first hovering around 83000 for 20 hours, then in the last 4 hours before the day ended, it directly surged to around 83900. Up to now, it remains at this golden price. It sweetened my whole night. Looking ahead, I expect it to fluctuate around 83500, preferably without rising too much. The reason will be explained later.
The biggest news catalyst for last night's rise was probably Trump announcing the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement. This directly determines energy prices and makes the subsequent CPI data look better. Would you say that's important?
I entered my BTC long position at 82900, with the initial target set near the resistance level at 82850 for profit-taking. I executed this and repeatedly emphasized it in the post. I've attached the chart for everyone to reference the thought process.
From BTC entry to exit, I believe the real importance is not how much we earned on this trade, but whether we made a logical plan and had the internal discipline to execute it accordingly. 7 AM, and the outside is already completely bright. The footsteps of morning runners come from downstairs, and the smell of cooking oil from breakfast stalls drifts into the room. This is a new day full of hope for others, but I have already stayed up several nights in a row. The room is dead silent; I curl up in front of the computer, staring at the string of red and green flashing numbers, like watching fireworks that have nothing to do with me. #俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
$GRASS: [Bloody frenzy, remnants of life]
Opening price 0.08423, current price 0.087000.
Main position, unrealized profit 1,507.77U, ROI 58.55%.
Grass earned over 1500U, enough to get a comprehensive critical illness screening at a top private hospital. But looking at this 1500+ U, I can’t even shed a tear. It rose nearly 30% in 24 hours, on-chain whales are still rushing in, and 8 hours ago someone spent 1.7 million U to buy 780,000 tokens. But what about my position? I don’t even have the courage to add more. It’s called "Grass," and I’m like a blade of grass. Wherever the wind blows, I fall. I dare not spend the money I earned, dare not admit the losses, stay up late until my heart races, and still pretend I’m "investing," "changing my fate."
$BTC: [Cold trump card, full of scars]
Opening price 81,743.6, current price 83,852.67.
Main position, unrealized profit 662.84U, ROI 46.78%.
Bitcoin is as steady as Mount Tai, with a defense line far below at 63,538; it’s the strongest fortress in my account. But no matter how steady it is, it can’t steady my insomnia at 4 AM. The person locked inside the fortress is already full of scars.
$ETH: [Faith buried, devastated]
Opening price 2,474.81, current price 2,552.22.
Main position, unrealized profit 310.57U, ROI 48.66%.
Ethereum earned over 300U. It used to be my faith in this market; I thought it could take me away from mediocrity and achieve freedom. But the young person who once believed "Ethereum would change the world" has been worn down bit by bit through countless sleepless nights.
#台积电Q3营收创新高，10月15日财报还有哪些看点？
The account is in the red, but the person is gray.
I calculated that these three positions together have unrealized profits of over 2,000U. But when I stare at GRASS’s straight line shooting up, my hands tremble and my heart is empty. I know these numbers can disappear at any moment. Just one needle, one injection, one sudden plunge, and they will vanish as if they never existed. And I will, like countless nights before, continue sitting in front of the screen, waiting for it to come back.
I pushed my chair back and stood up. My legs are numb, my eyes sore, and my stomach empty and uneasy. Those morning runners outside will finish running, go to work, meet friends, and have a warm breakfast. But I don’t even have the strength to open the curtains.
I stared at the screen for a long time, then clicked the mouse. I didn’t close any positions, nor did I add any. I just closed the laptop. Then I picked up my phone and sent a message to a friend I hadn’t contacted in a long time: "How have you been lately?" After sending it, I stood up, walked to the window, and pulled open the curtains.
The sunlight was blinding. I squinted and stood there for a long time.
Unrealized profits of 2,000U can’t buy back the life I’ve burned away. No matter how steady Bitcoin is, it can’t steady my broken life. The frenzy of Grass can’t buy back my roots. No trades today. Today, I’ll sleep first. Today, I’ll just be a person.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #Last week, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net outflow of $681.1 million, and Solana ETFs also experienced an outflow of $24.8 million.
However, due to the significant difference in the overall scale of the two types of ETFs, simply comparing the outflow amounts does not directly indicate which side is under greater financial pressure.
What truly deserves attention next is when the funds will flow back and whether the pace of the return is consistent.
If BTC and SOL both see a capital rebound simultaneously, it suggests that market demand may be recovering overall; but if Bitcoin recovers inflows first while Solana continues to experience outflows, it may reflect that funds still prefer to allocate to BTC.
The data on fund outflows is just the past; the subsequent direction of funds is the key. Whether Bitcoin can stabilize first and whether Solana can catch up are changes worth continuous observation. Last night, after 11 o'clock, I came across two pieces of news. After reading them, I turned off my computer and went to sleep peacefully. First: Trump announced that the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire agreement was effective immediately, and neither side could damage each other's energy infrastructure. Second: U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent said it would take "absolute isolation action" against Iran. Iran has lost 85% to 90% of its missile and drone manufacturing capacity, and gasoline queues take 3 to 4 hours. Trump expects no military conflict before the midterm elections. Many people's first reaction upon seeing these two pieces of news is, "Oh, geopolitical easing is good, good for risk assets." But I think most people don't realize the true weight of these two pieces of news—they're not just simple "positive news," but rather dismantling the root cause of this BTC crash. Let me break down how this crash started. Let's rewind to a week ago. The situation in Iran suddenly became tense, with the US military increasing its troops in the Middle East, and the market began pricing in "the US is going to attack Iran." If Iran is attacked, the Strait of Hormuz could be blocked, and 20% of the world's oil shipments pass through there. Brent crude soared from 95% to 105, hitting a new high. As oil prices rose, inflation expectations rose. The Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points in September, and the new chairman, Warsh, made his hawkish debut, and the market was already worried about rate hikes. After oil prices broke 105, the probability of a rate hike in October once surged above 60%. US Treasury yields began to soar, with the 10-year yield rising from 5.3% all the way to 5.73%, the highest since 2007. The 30-year yield fell below 5.5%. US Treasury yields soaredSomeone sold 410 BTC and converted it all into ETH
He sold 410 BTC on Hyp, worth $34.16 million. Then he immediately bought 14,341 ETH on DEX, worth $36.14 million.
The money from selling BTC was almost entirely poured into ETH.
This is not an ordinary portfolio shift; it’s a directional bet.
By selling BTC to buy ETH, he is essentially betting that ETH will outperform BTC going forward. Currently, the ETH/BTC rate is around 0.03, at a historical low range, and he is betting this rate will rebound.
Recently, BTC dropped from 86,000, and ETH also fell, but ETH’s decline was relatively smaller. Some are betting ETH will stabilize before BTC, while others think this is just a normal rotation after BTC’s heavy drop.
Whether he bet correctly or not, only time will tell. But the portfolio shift of 410 BTC at least shows he believes ETH offers better value than BTC right now.
What do you think? Can ETH outperform BTC this time? Let’s discuss in the comments.
The above is based on on-chain data compilation and does not constitute any trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $GRASS This position feels suitable for a light short entry, current price 0.85, +25% in 24 hours. Just broke through the previous high of 0.819, with resistance only left at 0.90 above. Some are pushing it in the short term, waiting for a pullback to 0.84~0.85. If it breaks below 0.83, this phase will be over.10:30 AM, the sun is shining brightly outside the window, and the plaza in the neighborhood carries the sunny scent of the neighbor auntie's sun-dried quilts. From downstairs, the faint sound of office workers making business calls can be heard. This is the most vibrant moment in the entire world. Meanwhile, I have drawn the heavy blackout curtains in my room, and the air is so stale it turns sour
$DOGE: [Gorgeous numbers, remnants of life]
Opening price 0.08423, current price 0.086994.
Main position, unrealized profit 1,632.43U, ROI 63.22%.
The dog really went crazy, earning over 1600U. I could have used this money to buy my favorite sneakers or enjoy the finest buffet
$BTC: [Cold armor, imprisoning cage]
Opening price 81,743.6, current price 83,919.6.
Main position, unrealized profit 736.79U, ROI 51.86%
The big coin's defense line is far at 62,894, perfectly safe. It is the armor of my account but the cage of my real life
$ETH: [Martyrdom faith, scarred and battered]
Opening price 2,474.81, current price 2,553.35.
Main position, unrealized profit 395.16U, ROI 61.51%
Ether earned nearly 400U. It was once my faith, the light I thought could lead me out of mediocrity
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 小心拉盘后砸盘！Sonic币现在0.06就是高位！ $S Sonic代币从0.037美元拉升至0.06以上，涨幅超过60%，但这个价格完全没有基本面支撑。 看看链上真实数据。Sonic的全链日手续费收入仅约75美元，年化收入约2.7万美元，而代币市值却高达1.6亿美元。要支撑当前估值，链上收入需要增长200到350倍。这不是估值偏高，这是估值荒谬。 TVL更能说明问题。Sonic的锁仓总值从2025年5月峰值的11.4亿美元，暴跌至目前的约3385万美元，蒸发幅度超过97%。一条链的锁仓资本几乎归零，意味着用户和资金正在用脚投票。 团队层面同样在瓦解。2026年6月，包括Andre Cronje在内的三位创始董事同时辞去Sonic Labs董事会职务。Cronje在离职声明中明确切割，称自己从未参与代币经济、迁移和空投决策，其战略重心已转移至新项目Flying Tulip。 最值得警惕的是资金流向。在近期这波拉盘过程中，实时数据显示仍有约936万枚S代币被卖出，表明阻力位附近存在明确的抛压。谁在拉，谁在卖，答案不言自明。 做市商Wintermute此前在结束合作后，24小时内抛售了约$TRX TRX: TRON at 0.33, the most uneventful yet the most stable?
TRX today at $0.3305, 24h -0.08%, 7 days -1.55% — almost no drop in the entire market. This is TRX's temperament: not flashy, no big hits, but small drawdowns.
TRON's logic is very straightforward: USDT transfers, Southeast Asia/Latin America payments, low-fee transfers, stablecoin settlement network. Today USDT still has a $184B market cap and $36B daily volume; TRON is one of the old pipelines for stablecoin liquidity.
Price zones:
0.32–0.33: long-term sideways range
0.35–0.38: previous highs
Break below 0.30: stablecoin demand retreat
TRX is not for getting rich quick, but to ensure your "clone positions don't all die."
Today fear and greed index at 57, TRX barely moves. When Bitcoin falls, it falls slightly; when Bitcoin rises, it rises slightly. Many find it boring, but assets that survive from 2022 to 2026 are rare; many "high-performance new chains" didn't make it. #CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验 #机构持续布局，BTC为何仍承压？ $TRX BTC is leaning towards a rebound this week, focusing on the dual catalysts of US-Russia energy deals and CPI.
Currently, BTC's trend this week is optimistic, with a target near $87,000. If it breaks through, then attention shifts to $90,000.
One notable change to watch is the US-Russia energy transactions and news related to the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire. If energy supply expectations improve and oil price pressure eases, market concerns about inflation rebound may cool down. This is favorable for the sentiment recovery of risk assets.
Looking at BTC itself.
After the last round of decline, the price has climbed back above $82,000 and rebounded to around $83,000. I tend to interpret the current trend as a correction after the drop, rather than directly judging that a new round of decline has begun.
The US CPI released this Wednesday could become a catalyst for the market to further choose its direction. If BTC can hold above $82,000 and there is no significant reversal in energy news, then the probability of continued upward correction this week is more worth watching.
This week's outlook: short-term bullish, first target $87,000, then $90,000; if $82,000 is effectively broken down, this judgment needs to be reassessed.
#CPI与PPI公布在即，加息预期迎考验
#俄乌或达成“能源停火”协议，进展待确认
#俄罗斯放宽柴油出口，霍尔木兹风险仍支撑油价 During the dot-com bubble, Amazon's stock price shrank by 95%, just one step away from bankruptcy.
Now, its market value has surpassed $2.7 trillion.When the coin price drops, the most common phrase that pops up is: buy a little more to lower the cost.
Old Wang thinks that before placing an order, you should first ask yourself: if I don't own any right now, would I still want to buy it?
If the answer is just "I've already lost money and I'm unwilling to give up," then the reason for averaging down needs to be reconsidered.
Before averaging down, look at three things:
① Does the original reason for buying still hold?
② After adding more, will this coin's proportion of the total funds be too high?
③ If it keeps falling, will the allocation of future funds be affected?
Lowering the cost means more money invested, but the risk doesn't necessarily decrease.
Averaging down requires a new judgment; you can't rely solely on old reluctance.#CPI and PPI announcements are imminent, interest rate hike expectations face a test $BTC $ETH $SOL
Q: Has the market actually reversed now?
A: Not yet. More precisely, this is a corrective rally after a sharp drop entering a consolidation and confirmation phase. Market sentiment is better than before, with willingness to test, but trend reversal requires more evidence. For now, it can only be defined as a "rebound," not a "gear shift."
Q: What is the key level for BTC?
A: 90,000. It’s not easy to break above this round number. People trapped earlier and those chasing the rebound will consider taking profits there. Therefore, the price may not pass smoothly the first time it approaches. The real signal is a volume breakout followed by consecutive closes above 90,000; if that doesn’t happen, it’s still considered an oversold correction, and attention should be paid to whether there is support around 85,000.
Q: What about ETH and SOL?
A: ETH has moved from 2600 back to 2780, so the short-term focus has indeed shifted up, but the important range previously broken has not been fully recovered, so reversal conditions are insufficient. Use 2880 and 2680 as short-term benchmarks: failure to break 2880 indicates weak consolidation; if 2680 is lost, 2600 may be tested again.
Q: What about trading strategy?
A: Don’t rush BTC; consider after it stabilizes above 90,000; for ETH, don’t preset direction, watch reactions at 2880 and 2680; for SOL, wait and see for now. As long as the mid-term structure is intact, a bullish bias can be maintained, but being bullish doesn’t mean chasing every green candle.
In summary: Confirm first, then follow; don’t rush to treat the rebound as a reversal if key levels aren’t broken. Current Status of Colend (Core Chain Lending Protocol) 1. The contract has not been shut down; the on-chain contract still exists, and the frontend website is still accessible, but the business is basically "effectively frozen," with activity almost at zero. - In March 2026, a massive chain liquidation was triggered by a sharp drop in the CORE token price, severely damaging the entire protocol. Although the official statement says the protocol code itself was not hacked and the issue was caused by market leverage liquidations with no bad debt, liquidity was severely destroyed. - The current TVL is only a few million USD, with the vast majority of collateral assets being CORE/stCORE; liquidity for stablecoins and BTC-type assets is almost depleted. - Almost no assets can be borrowed: even if collateral is deposited, the lending pool has no available liquidity; ordinary users can mainly only make deposits, and the lending function is basically unusable. 2. Status of the CLND Token - The CLND token is still listed on exchanges, but trading volume is extremely low, depth is poor, and the price has dropped drastically compared to its peak. - Colend's official social updates have significantly decreased in frequency, and large-scale incentive activities have ceased. 3. Key Reminders for Existing Users - The contract is not frozen; you can withdraw your deposited collateral assets by manually redeeming and withdrawing through the app; do not continue to deposit new funds. - The protocol has experienced extreme liquidation events, and the collateral is the highly volatile CORE token, carrying very high leverage risk. Simple Summary ✅ The contract has not been abandoned or closed on the technical level; it is still accessible and assets can be withdrawn ❌The "$S Sonic (S)" "blank trap" operation has left clear on-chain traces.
A public chain with a daily fee income of only $75 had its token market value once pushed up to $1.03, with a market cap exceeding $1 billion. This valuation itself was a carefully designed trap—pulling the price to a high level through narrative and incentives without any real revenue support.
What followed played out according to the standard script. TVL plummeted from $1.14 billion to $20 million, evaporating 98%. Three founding directors, including the most well-known Andre Cronje, resigned simultaneously on June 19, 2026. In his resignation statement, Cronje deliberately distanced himself, stating he "never" participated in token economics, migration, or airdrop decisions. After the cooperation ended, market maker Wintermute sold about $857,000 worth of S tokens within 24 hours.
The most ironic part is that Sonic locked 75% of the airdropped tokens in NFTs for 270 days, with early redemption requiring a burn penalty of up to 66%. This is not an airdrop; it locks users’ assets in a downward channel, ensuring the project team has enough time to complete the sell-off.
When a chain’s core builders collectively leave, market makers withdraw, TVL drops to zero, and daily income is only $75, its only "use" left is to complete the final sell-off before going to zero.$STRK
STRK is still surging, but does the cooling off in gains mean the trend is over?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 0.10183—0.12687 USDT, change +16.25%, trading volume about 74.35 million USDT.
The window's return has slowed compared to yesterday, but the observation range has shifted upward. Momentum cooling and price range increase can happen simultaneously. Strength should not be judged solely by percentage, nor should rising prices be taken as proof that application revenue has been realized.
If the 0.12687 peak fails and subsequent lows continue to decline, be cautious of increased supply; if the pullback holds the new range and real demand follows, then the upward continuation is reinforced. Cooling off itself is not evidence of a reversal.#BTC Highlights:
Pullback realized, judgment correct. Enter at 60,000, exit at 88,000, short at 86,200, cover and add short at 80,600.
Next target 94,000.
The key is whether 86K can turn into support.Sei is a high-performance L1 public chain focused on the trading track, positioned specifically for order book DEXs, contract trading, and high-frequency on-chain trading, directly competing with Sui, Aptos, and Solana. ✅ Highlights (Bullish Logic) 1. Differentiated Positioning: Not an all-purpose public chain, but focused on on-chain trading. Native parallel execution and fast finality; originally with Twin-Turbo consensus, now fully pushing the Sei Giga major upgrade aiming for 200,000 TPS and finality within 250ms. It also adds the Sedna privacy trading layer, focusing on MEV resistance to attract institutional-grade on-chain trading demand. 2. Architecture Transformation (SIP-3): Shifting from Cosmos SDK route to a pure EVM chain, abandoning CosmWasm and shutting down IBC cross-chain. Benefits: Ethereum developers can migrate directly, Solidity contracts deploy with one click, lowering development barriers; downsides: completely detaching from the Cosmos ecosystem, losing original IBC assets and Cosmos community foundation. 3. Clear Ecosystem Direction: Ecosystem focus on order book DEXs, perpetual contracts, RWA, prediction markets (previously partnered with Kalshi), Chainlink, Pyth and other oracles already integrated, suitable for latency-sensitive trading DeFi. 4. Strong Institutional Financing Background: Early financing lineup was good; the trading track narrative is easily hyped by capital during bull markets, showing strong elasticity when crypto markets are favorable. ⚠️ Core Risks (also the biggest constraints on prospects)🚨 Contract funds are simultaneously flowing back and retreating, who is secretly positioning?
Let me tell you, the capital flow of the four major mainstream coins has already shown obvious divergence!
🔴 $BTC: 24-hour net inflow +$604 million, but net outflow of -$109 million in the last hour, and a net outflow of -$4.731 billion in the last 30 days. Short-term funds fluctuate repeatedly, with considerable medium- to long-term pressure.
🔴 $ETH: 24-hour net inflow +$71.8095 million, inflow of +$62.144 million in the last 2 hours, but net outflow of -$5.367 billion in the last 30 days. Some short-term replenishment, but this does not mean the trend has reversed.
🟠 $SOL: 24-hour net inflow +$48.216 million, net outflow of -$1.994 billion in the last 30 days, short-term warming, long-term still under pressure.
🟢 $ZEC: 24-hour net inflow +$29.5757 million, net inflow of +$94.1248 million in the last 30 days, the only one among the four coins to maintain net inflow in the last 30 days, showing relatively strong capital performance.
My view is clear: short-term inflow does not equal the return of a bull market. Medium- to long-term capital pressure remains for $BTC, $ETH, and $SOL; $ZEC is relatively resistant to decline, but don’t blindly chase highs.
A reminder: contract net inflow does not equal real buying pressure; direction still needs to be judged in combination with price and open interest.
Do you think this is a main force shakeout, or the last bull trap before a rebound? See you in the comments!10.12｜BTC and ETH Early Session Thoughts
Today's trading idea is very clear: mainly short on Monday's rally, no chasing longs unless there's a volume-backed recovery.
$BTC is currently around 83,800. It consolidated near 83,000 over the weekend for two days, then Asian session directly pulled up to 84,200. The issue isn't the candlestick itself, but the 86,000 level wasn't even touched by the wick, funding rates are falling slowly, and longs are still chasing. If no one picks up during the US session, a pullback is very likely.
$ETH is around 2,540 now, moving in sync with BTC. It bounced from 2,490 to 2,555 over the weekend, but 2,580 also didn't hold.
The real variable this week is Wednesday's CPI. The minutes already indicated another rate hike this year is appropriate, and Michigan inflation expectations are still rising. If CPI comes in hot again, US Treasury yields may rise again, and BTC could retest 80,400 or even see 79,000.
Current trading plan:
BTC: Short between 84,500-86,000, target near 80,400-79,000.
ETH: Short between 2,560-2,620, target near 2,450-2,400.
If BTC recovers 86,000 with volume, the short position is invalidated immediately; never stubbornly hold against the trend.
Trading is never about guessing the outcome, but about thinking through three scenarios in advance: what to do if it rises, what to do if it falls, and where to admit being wrong.
What do you think after Wednesday's CPI release? Will BTC first drop to 79,000 or directly recover 86,000? Core narrative: BTCFi (Bitcoin DeFi) track, unique Satoshi Plus consensus, combining Bitcoin hash power + PoS to secure the network, focusing on staking idle BTC for interest, with a token CORE cap of 2.1 billion tokens (equivalent to BTC's 21 million). ✅ Bullish logic (advantages) 1. Scarce track narrative BTCFi has been one of the main themes in the crypto world in recent years, attracting many Bitcoin miners and BTC whales interested; Its dual staking mechanism: staking CORE yields higher BTC staking yields, theoretically generating sustained demand for CORE. The official 2026 roadmap focuses on ecosystem yield buybacks of CORE, no longer relying solely on inflation burning, aiming to build a revenue-supported token model. 2. EVM compatibility with low entry barrier: Ethereum developers can directly deploy contracts, with ecosystem directions focused on BTC lending, BTC liquid staking, RWA, and payments (SatPay), positioned as Bitcoin's smart contract chain. 3. Miner community foundation: Early on, many BTC miners participated in consensus, which is a differentiation other BTCFi projects (Babylon, Stacks) do not have; Many custodians and institutional service providers have joined to offer BTC staking solutions. ⚠️ Very tough risks (also the biggest constraint on prospects, the point you previously cared about) 1. Validator node decentralization controversy + official node exit incident There have been official cases beforeNonfarm payroll storm approaching, rate cut expectations face a "life-or-death trial"
🔥The global market holds its breath tonight: The US September nonfarm payroll data is about to be released, followed closely by the unemployment rate, both highly nerve-wracking. This heavyweight report will directly "judge" the market's bets on the Fed's rate cut path within the year.
📊Current expectations: about 150,000 new nonfarm jobs, unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. The market is more focused on the stickiness of average hourly earnings; whether the cooling of the labor force is real and sustained is tonight's biggest suspense.
⚡Policy background: The Fed has already started the rate cut cycle in September. The market currently bets on a high probability of further cuts in November, but under the "soft landing" narrative, if the data is abnormally strong, rate cut expectations may be reassessed, causing the dollar and US Treasury yields to rebound strongly.
📉Clear impact on risk assets: Data beats expectations → rate cut expectations cool down → liquidity tightens → risk assets come under pressure; the opposite boosts the market. BTC is currently oscillating at a high level; volatility will inevitably increase around the data release, beware of "buy the rumor, sell the fact."
👀Key observation points: Not only watch the number of new jobs but also closely monitor the month-on-month hourly earnings and unemployment rate. This week's data will decide whether the macro "ceiling" will open further or remain temporarily sealed. Fasten your seatbelts! $S Sonic (S) On-Chain Evidence of Internal Emptiness
A public chain with a market cap of about $160 million has a daily fee income of only $75. This is not a joke; these are the real data of Sonic on DefiLlama. The annualized income is about $27,375. To support the current valuation, on-chain revenue needs to grow 200 to 350 times.
Looking at the total value locked (TVL), Sonic's TVL plummeted from a peak of $1.14 billion in May 2025 to about $20 million, a 98% evaporation. A network’s locked capital is almost zero, meaning users are voting with their feet and no longer trust putting funds on this chain.
The team is also disintegrating. On June 19, 2026, three founding directors—Andre Cronje, Michael Kong, and David Richardson—simultaneously resigned from the Sonic Labs board. In his resignation statement, Cronje explicitly distanced himself, stating he was never responsible for tokenomics, migration, or airdrop decisions. Before this, his focus had already shifted to a new project, Flying Tulip, which raised $200 million with a valuation of $1 billion.
Market makers are also withdrawing. Sonic ended its exclusive five-year partnership with Wintermute, which subsequently sold about $857,000 worth of S tokens.
A new CEO canceled all manual token minting and commissioned a third party to audit the token supply. This action itself indicates the transparency of the supply is... Conclusion first: $W rose 48% in 24 hours, but the real story today is the 4H candle at 8 AM — $W surged 19% in a single candle, with volume 12 times the average of the past 8 candles.
From 0.022 to 0.026, a single candle pushed it straight up.
This is not an emotional peak; it's a structural breakout driven by large capital entering intensively in a short time.
Do you think 0.026 can hold? $W ETH does not have a unified “whale standard”; thresholds vary across different platforms, and it is distinguished from BTC (≥1000 BTC) criteria: The two most commonly used classifications in the community (Santiment / Glassnode) 1. Super Whales: ≥100,000 ETH Very few addresses, ranging from several dozen to over sixty. ⚠️ The majority here are: Beacon Chain staking contracts, exchange custody wallets, ETF custody addresses; genuine individual whales are very rare. 2. Standard Whales: ≥10,000 ETH (the tier most closely watched) Approximately 800 to 1100 addresses; this tier represents the whales commonly referred to who actively trade and influence the market, including funds, large holders, and institutional self-custody wallets. 3. Large Holders/Sharks: ≥1,000 ETH This tier has many more addresses, numbering in the thousands, including many mid-sized funds, staking service providers, and DeFi treasuries. The most important misconception (same as BTC) Address ≠ real independent person - Beacon Chain deposit contracts, Lido, Coinbase staking pools, and major exchange cold wallets are all counted as whale addresses; - One whale can split assets into dozens of wallets; one wallet can hold tens of thousands of retail investors’ funds (custody). Therefore, on-chain data can only count wallet addresses and cannot accurately determine how many real independent “people” are whales. A simple comparison with the BTC you just asked about - BTC whale standard: ≥1000 BTC,#Minimalist Chan Theory $BTC $ETH
Although the price points arrive late, they do arrive. As I mentioned earlier, BTC reached around 8.4, and ETH reached around 2570. The initial rebound of ETH was relatively weak and did not move as fast as BTC. From the perspective of Chan Theory, when BTC's rebound was strong before, the 4-hour MACD had a golden cross below zero, but ETH had not yet formed a golden cross at that time.
The reason I changed my name to "Unity of Knowledge and Action" is because I often fail to achieve it myself. This time is no different. Although the market was weak and the trend slow over the weekend, the 5-minute consolidation zone upgraded. Even though I clearly knew the previous high of 8.35 would be broken, I still did not close my previous laddered short positions. After adding positions, the previous short positions cost BTC 8.3×2 and ETH 2502×40. After adding positions at the high point early this morning, my current cost is BTC 8.33×3 and ETH 2516×60. I am holding the full short position without moving it. Regardless of whether the price will rise further, it will eventually pull back. I will observe the strength of the pullback and then close the short positions.
For conservative operation to avoid missing out, yesterday, knowing a new high would be made, I should have closed half of the laddered short positions—that is, closed one BTC and 20 ETH—and then added back later. This would have resulted in a much better cost basis. At the same time, I am working hard to transition from a short-term trader to a trend trader and cannot be overly concerned with price points, or I will miss big moves, just like a few days ago when I kept waiting for a break of 8.74 and did not add short positions.
Trading is a practice of cultivation; the difficulty lies not in the technique but in the human heart.#CPI and PPI Announcements Imminent, Interest Rate Hike Expectations Face Test
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
Q: ETFs are still being subscribed to, so why isn't the candlestick chart responding?
A: Because ETFs act more like "allocation vehicles" rather than "price-pumping vehicles." They can absorb some spot holdings but cannot reclaim marginal pricing power. When rate hike expectations turn hawkish, institutions first reduce high-volatility positions, so net inflows can only buffer the impact.
Q: Then who is actually selling off?
A: It's not a single major player but more like a combined force of three factors. First, the latest FOMC minutes are hawkish, the door to further tightening rates remains open; second, long-term US Treasury yields have surged, with the 10-year hitting 5.36%, the highest since 2002, making risk-free returns attractive.
Q: What is the current status of BTC and ETH?
A: BTC is around 82,000, retreating about 2% in 24 hours, with the price center continuing to shift downward. ETH is more volatile; during bearish waves, it falls harder, dropping from 2700 to 2420, and a rebound to around 2480 is just a slight breather.
Q: Why are tokens like SOL more hurt?
A: They rely on new capital inflows and hot narratives. After liquidity is drained by the bond market, public chain tokens driven by sentiment and incremental buying are the first to run out of fuel; once the narrative cools, prices lose support.
Q: Is it time to bottom-fish now?
A: Don't rush. ETF inflows can't support the whole market, indicating selling pressure comes from broader macro cross-asset reallocations. Wait for volatility to subside and sentiment to stop panicking before considering phased entries. Holding positions and cash now is more important than trying to guess the bottom.
$BTC