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Woke up to the sky falling. ONE dropped nearly 12% during the day, from 0.00275 down to 0.00242. Thought it was about time to open a short position, but ended up closing it out impulsively; today it kept falling, and slapping my thigh won’t help. At this level, I wanted to bottom-fish but held back seeing how the overall market looks terrible. Old chains collapse suddenly with no sense of security. This market either scares the timid or supports the brave; Harmony’s liquidity drain is faster than anyone else’s this round. Good morning, genius traders $ONE #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $ETHFI is shifting beyond the old LRT narrative, with EtherFi increasingly focused on real cash flow.
Weekly revenue is around $700K–$900K, with EtherFi Cash driving nearly 60%. If this trend continues, the cash-flow + token buyback model could become the next catalyst.
#VanEckBitcoinOutlook #AnthropicEyesNovIPO Many friends have asked why the Base chain has been performing so well recently, so here’s a simple explanation. First, a basic fact: Aerodrome is the leading DEX on Base, having risen nine percent in the past 24 hours, with trading volume simultaneously expanding to 7 million USD. What’s the core reason? It’s that Base’s real users and capital are accumulating, not just empty pump-and-dump. With underlying traffic comes DEX transaction fees; with fees comes AERO buyback and burn; with burn comes price support. Each link depends on the previous one, progressing gradually. $AERO #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Is the $FIL filcoin project a pseudo-demand? Core conclusions
1. It is not purely a pseudo-demand, but there is a long-term structural problem where "incentive-driven motivation far exceeds real commercial demand." The value proposition is valid, but commercialization is seriously lagging.
2. Using a 5-year cycle and "achieving commercial self-sustainability without token subsidies" as the success criteria, the final success rate is about 25%~35%, with 30% being a relatively fair neutral judgment.
I. Why it is not a "pseudo-demand": Real value and actual implementation exist
The core definition of "pseudo-demand" is a false demand with no real usage value, maintained only by token speculation. Filecoin does not fit this definition:
1. There are clear real-world application scenarios
Public data archiving, AI training dataset notarization, and censorship-resistant storage are verified essential demand scenarios. Institutions like the Smithsonian Institution, MIT, Internet Archive, and Cornell University have stored PB-level data on-chain for long-term cultural and scientific data preservation. This demand is irreplaceable.
2. Paid demand is growing from zero
From January to August 2026, on-chain real paid storage annualized revenue grew from $663 to $59,300, an 88-fold increase year-over-year; active paying parties increased from 73 to 119; after the launch of Fil One (S3-compatible object storage) priced at $4.99/TB/month, it has been integrated into AWS Marketplace and secured $870 million in enterprise-level intent orders.
3. The technical value logic holds
Verifiable storage based on zero-knowledge proofs, distributed architecture providing resistance to single points of failure and censorship, offers differentiated advantages in cold data archiving and data ownership scenarios, not a mere fantasy.
II. Root causes of the "pseudo-demand" controversy: Incentive dependency and low demand quality
The market's skepticism about "pseudo-demand" mainly stems from the network's value being long supported by token rewards rather than real commercial payments:
1. Early capacity was mostly "invalid data"
In the first 3 years before launch, miners filled large amounts of meaningless junk data to maximize block rewards and boost computing power; real effective data accounted for less than 10%. Even by 2026, 36% utilization still includes a large amount of Fil+ (official subsidy) driven non-market demand, with pure spontaneous payment still very low.
2. Paid scale does not match network size
The entire network storage capacity is nearly 2 EiB (the world's largest decentralized storage network), with a market value of about $700 million, but annual real paid storage revenue is only about $60,000, completely insufficient to cover miner costs. Over 99% of miner income still comes from block rewards, essentially a "subsidy-driven supply surplus."
3. Severely insufficient enterprise commercial capability
Compared to mainstream cloud providers like AWS and Alibaba Cloud, Filecoin has huge gaps in retrieval latency, SLA service guarantees, permission management, compliance auditing, and technical support—core enterprise demands. Currently, it can only handle the lowest-value cold archiving business and cannot enter the high-value hot storage market.
III. Basis for the 30% success rate: Hedging between positives and risks
Using "within 5 years, break away from token subsidies, maintain network operation through real commercial revenue, and become a leading player in decentralized storage" as the success standard, the 25%~35% probability range comes from the following hedges:
Core positives raising success rate
1. Economic model reform direction is correct: Solstice (FIP-0118), landing in 2027, cancels Fil+ subsidies and ties block rewards to real paid transaction volume, forcing the network to shift from "mining and selling" to "providing services and earning revenue," a critical and correct pivot.
2. AI brings incremental demand window: The explosive demand for traceable and verifiable storage of large model training datasets naturally fits Filecoin's technical characteristics, representing the largest current growth curve.
3. Productization accelerates filling gaps: Products like Filecoin Onchain Cloud and Fil One are improving API, S3 compatibility, and enterprise access capabilities, moving from a "blockchain protocol" toward a "commercial cloud service."
4. Supply-side clearing reduces selling pressure: In October 2026, the founding team's six-year lockup expires, combined with continuous block reward decay, greatly narrowing FIL supply growth and giving demand-side growth a time window.
Core risks lowering success rate
1. Demand ramp-up is extremely slow: After 6 years online, paid revenue only reaches tens of thousands of dollars annually. To support miner revenue scale, exponential growth is needed, which is very difficult; traditional cloud providers have high ecosystem barriers, making it hard to capture mature markets.
2. Scenario ceiling is low: Currently, it can only enter the cold archiving niche market; hot storage, CDN, and other high-value scenarios have almost no competitiveness, limiting total addressable market space.
3. Miner ecosystem death spiral risk: If after Solstice's launch real paid demand does not rise and block rewards continue to decline, many miners will exit, network capacity will shrink, further reducing attractiveness to enterprise clients, forming a negative cycle.
4. Competition and governance burdens: Competitors like Arweave differentiate in permanent storage; traditional cloud providers are also deploying distributed storage; early project governance disputes and conflicts between miners and officials will drag commercialization progress.The operational approach remains unchanged: mainstream top assets on one side, pure meme on the other, the barbell strategy is the most stable. Spot: Hold HYPE, Hyperliquid's perpetual DEX TVL is still hitting new highs, and fee income is visibly growing; Futures: Long HYPE, target is the $95 resistance level, stop loss set below $85. Previously tried a small SOL-related altcoin trade, data was poor so didn't add more, but the result was unexpected—didn't expect it to be so strong, making a small profit but no loss is a win. The strategy is laid out, everyone judge for yourselves. $HYPE #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 To start with the conclusion: on days like today, an unrealized loss in your account usually doesn't mean the direction was wrong, but that the position selection was incorrect.
Looking across the entire market breadth: among USDT perpetual contracts, 154 are up, 39 are down, median +1.23%, $BTC +0.80%, $ETH +0.68%, $SOL +1.71%. If you're still losing money in this kind of market, there's basically only one explanation—you’re holding coins that underperformed the overall market.
A rule I set for myself: when the breadth is this green, first check your position logic, then look at price movements. Is the reason you bought it still valid? If yes, hold on; if not, take advantage of this high liquidity day to exit, don’t wait until it turns fully green before you run.
The most costly mistake is "The market goes up but I don’t = I’m wrong." Panic selling leads to cutting losses and chasing the hottest coins among the 154 gainers. The result? The ones you sold didn’t drop, and the ones you chased turned red the next day—getting hit from both sides.
Look at today’s losers: $AT -8.09%, $UP -7.41%, but 24h volume is only $7M and $2M. Small coins drifting down have no support; a pullback is just a pullback. What’s really worth catching is a pullback with heavy volume in big trades. This is the simplest difference in money management.
Is your position green or red today? $BTCThose who missed out haven't lost a penny on paper, but their minds are filled with days of losing money.
It's most obvious in the few days after the market moves out; when busy during the day, they can forget, but once idle, it creeps back. At night, when they open the app, it has risen again, and the more they watch, the more they feel they've lost. This loss is fake, but the pain is real. When people are in pain, they want to find a way to make up for it. Chasing orders is that act of making up, treating the profits they didn't earn as lost profits, as if chasing in can recover them. Those trapped move recklessly, at least knowing they're gambling; those who missed out chase orders, truly believing they're correcting mistakes.
It rises, and the more you watch, the more you lose; it pulls back, and you're afraid the opportunity is gone—both sides urge you to act. $SOL's slow climb nurtures this feeling the most; it neither crashes nor moves fast, shifting a little each day, raising that tension higher and higher. The discomfort itself doesn't lose money; chasing that one order is what loses money, trying to fill a hole that doesn't exist.
This fake loss must be settled first. Move the unrealized profits out of the loss column and back to where they originally belonged—where they never really were. After moving them, look at the market again; the urge to chase will drop by more than half, and the remaining urge that stands is a truly intended order.
The heavy discomfort of missing out means this round hasn't reached the stage where everyone has a share yet. I don't look bearish on SOL here. First, settle the accounts, and with the remaining urge, treat it as a new order to handle.The weekend was generally weak, with BTC 84.8K still the dividing line, and the whole market shrinking volume waiting for next week. AXS is around $1.37, and GameFi veterans were actually lifted by funds today, rising more than 10%, which is a rare bright spot over the weekend; $ONE was rejected above 0.0027 and then lost ground, falling nearly 12% for the day, becoming the worst performer. Hold $1.3, otherwise AXS will return to $1.2; if the volume continues to shrink over the weekend, $1.2 will become a magnet, and the rebound will depend more on the overall market mood. Wait for the reaction when the market opens next week. $AXS #Liquid发布紧急修复，网络进入分阶段恢复 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $FIL Filecoin is currently at a critical stage of transitioning from "pseudo-demand controversy" to "real demand validation." Its probability of success is far from 30%, but it is not without hope. The core contradiction lies in the fact that it has a vast decentralized storage infrastructure but has long lacked matching real paid demand.
📉 Why is it questioned as "pseudo-demand"?
The "pseudo-demand" controversy around Filecoin mainly stems from a serious disconnect between its economic model and real use cases.
· Miner-driven rather than customer-driven: Early network growth was driven by token incentives, with miners filling the network with junk data to earn block rewards without bearing data retrieval responsibilities. Community discussions have clearly pointed out that many transactions involve storing "fake or low-utility data" just to obtain rewards.
· Structural supply-demand imbalance: Tokens continue to be produced, but demand has not kept pace, leading to huge selling pressure. FIL price dropped from a high of $238 to around $1.5, with market capitalization sharply shrinking, reflecting loss of market confidence.
· Utilization rate rose but base remains low: Although network utilization rose to 36% in Q3 2025, total network storage capacity declined by 10% in the same period, and active storage slightly decreased by 1%. This indicates some storage providers are exiting, and real demand has not significantly filled the gap.
📈 Signs of "real demand" in transformation
Filecoin is striving to shed the label of a "mining financial system" and transition to a programmable on-chain cloud service.
· Strategic focus clearly shifts to demand: The official 2026 strategy core is to increase paid on-chain storage transactions, focusing on verticals like AI agents, DePIN, and enterprise infrastructure.
· Real datasets are growing: As of Q3 2025, the number of real datasets online increased by 3% quarter-over-quarter to 2,491, with 925 datasets exceeding 1,000 TiB, showing large-scale adoption by enterprises and research institutions.
· New products target real scenarios: Filecoin Onchain Cloud (FOC), launching in 2026, offers programmable, verifiable storage and payment layers aimed at serving real needs such as persistent memory for AI agents. At mainnet launch, 49 TiB of data was already stored.
📊 Why is the success probability hard to reach 30%?
Here, "success" is defined as FIL token price returning to historical highs or the protocol becoming a mainstream commercial storage standard, which is extremely unlikely. Major obstacles include:
· Continuous token selling pressure: Miner reward issuance will continue until 2036, with new tokens entering circulation over the next decade, exerting long-term downward pressure on price.
· Fierce market competition: Filecoin faces competition not only from centralized giants like Amazon S3 but also from differentiated decentralized rivals such as Arweave (permanent storage) and Storj (erasure coding).
· Transformation execution risk: Shifting from a "miner economy" to a "customer economy" involves cutting storage provider rewards and other core interest adjustments, causing huge controversy within the community. The success of this transformation is highly uncertain.
· Extremely low network fees: In Q3 2025, total network fees were only about $793,000, with 99.5% driven by penalties rather than real service revenue. This indicates very weak commercial monetization capability currently.
Overall, Filecoin has a real technological vision and some genuine use cases, but it has yet to prove it can convert these into sustainable, scalable commercial success. A 30% success probability may still be optimistic — it is more likely to become infrastructure serving specific niche markets (such as AI data requiring verifiable storage) rather than replicating past market glory.#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
The most important information currently is that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will release the minutes of their September meetings.
The market has already started pricing in no rate hikes in October due to weaker non-farm payrolls, and this gap itself will trigger volatility. The dollar may strengthen first and then weaken, causing risk assets to fluctuate sharply.
Of course, if the minutes show concerns about the labor market or begin discussing when to stop tightening, that would be a solid positive for BTC.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BTC $ETH $ZEC $UNI
Yesterday's leading indicator turned to a pullback; how to verify the continuity of rotation?
Today's observed 24-hour range is 8.947—9.326, with a window change of about -0.72% and a trading volume of approximately 12.65 million USDT.
Yesterday's similar snapshot was positive, but today it turned negative, indicating that relative strength will change. Yesterday's leading indicator cannot be directly copied as today's judgment; the current buying pressure still needs to be tested.
If the price subsequently breaks above 9.326, holds on a pullback, and trading volume supports it, I will raise my judgment on continuation; if it falls below 8.947 and the rebound cannot recover, I will lower my judgment. The above boundaries come from this observation window and need to be rechecked after market changes.Iran's latest response announced — refuses to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz before seven conditions are met, a gamble before the midterm elections? #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 The Iranian Speaker publicly stated rejection of the conditions for opening the strait proposed by the US through intermediaries; to open the strait, the seven conditions of the previous Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding must first be met. I believe this basically breaks the recent optimistic possibility of US-Iran returning to the negotiating table. Next, it depends on the US response. It should be noted that this statement comes from the Iranian Speaker, who is relatively moderate in negotiations and trusted by the Supreme Leader. This statement basically rules out the possibility of Iran adopting a softer stance. A hard confrontation, I think Iran is gambling. On Friday, US Vice President Pence held a secret meeting at Camp David to discuss security issues related to Iran and the Houthi forces, which has been seen as a signal before US military action. At this time, Iran still chooses to be tough, which is a gamble that Trump will not launch a large-scale attack on Iran before the midterm elections. It should be understood that Iran's rejection of the US proposal does not mean withdrawal from negotiations or closing the dialogue window. Obviously, Iran wants to negotiate conditions with the US as much as possible before military attacks after the midterm elections, betting that Trump cannot use force against Iran while dealing with the midterms, and also betting on Trump's failure in the midterm elections. Clearly, Iran has chosen a relatively difficult gamble path again. At present, I do not think the US is likely to meet all of Iran's conditions in exchange for opening the strait, so the two sides before the November midterm elections will endBEAMX is a small-cap coin, I went long directly, and the current price is 0.00293 with nearly a 40% gain in one day. The market cap is small and there is no liquidity, so a little capital can push it up. The gaming sector is currently seeing some capital testing the waters. But a surge is always accompanied by a crash, so prepare to set up short positions at the high point. No rush to short yet; wait until it can no longer push higher. The waterfall drop comes faster than the rise, so be careful, everyone. Take profits first before thinking about reversing positions; don’t get carried away. Once liquidity in small-cap coins withdraws, you can’t even run away. Keep it up, everyone! $BEAMX #CLARITY法案剩72小时，动议仍未提交 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 [Old Leek Observation] $NXPC
Entry: $0.225–$0.238
Take Profit: $0.250 / $0.260 / $0.277 / $0.295 / $0.320
Stop Loss: $0.214
GameFi has already seen many coins move in this round, but $NXPC hasn't truly caught up yet. Currently around $0.237, it has basically been trading sideways recently. The MapleStory Universe behind it is not just a concept: the H1 protocol revenue reached 30.98 million NXPC, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.4% in Q2, and it continuously reduces supply through protocol revenue buyback/burn mechanisms.
There is also an expected new round of NXPC burn in October.
If the second wave of GameFi continues, coins like NXPC that have risen before and recently stabilized sideways are actually worth watching to see if funds start to catch up.Recently, there's an interesting phenomenon: the Polkadot ecosystem has been cold for almost two years, but today Moonbeam surged over 30% in one move, currently priced at 0.0122. Everyone thought the old parachains had no stories left to tell, but in reality, the underlying elements like cross-chain interoperability and parachain slots have been quietly iterating, and developers have never truly left. Funds just temporarily forgot about it, but once the sector rotates and ignites, its resilience is stronger than those overhyped new concepts. Trust your own judgment and think it through yourself; don't get carried away by emotions. This round, GLMR is the one to really watch. $GLMR #美日确认联合购汇 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 It's not about "blindly bottom-fishing" now, but rather "building positions in tiers + keeping ammo for the last dip."
BTC current price is about 84,700, consolidating with low volume between the 82,000 support and 86,000–88,000 resistance. Funding rates are near zero, not crowded longs, but the 10-year US Treasury yield at 5.3% and real interest rate at 2.88% are pressuring non-yielding assets. The macro environment hasn't signaled comprehensive easing.
BTC/ETH: Already in the value zone, suitable for a base position of 30–40%+ with tiered additions at 82,000 / 78,000 / 74,000; avoid going all in at once. A typical true bottom scenario is "breaking key levels again to clear liquidations → then recovering." Below, 76,000 and 66,000 serve as liquidation/structure references.
Mainstream high beta like SOL: bottoms later than BTC, wait for BTC to hold above 88,000 before considering; it rebounds fast but also pulls back sharply.
Altcoins/MEME/low market cap: liquidity is dried up + trust collapsed, don't buy just because "there used to be an alt season in previous cycles." Most only have rebounds without reversals; small positions for speculation only.
Time window: multiple sources (Fidelity, Brandt, Jiang Zhuoer, 4chan consensus posts) point to around October 2026 as the cycle bottom area, but not a precise day bottom—more like a few weeks of consolidation around October.🙀 The market opens tomorrow meow
$NEAR's rebound has some strength, around 4.63 last night, returning to about 4.80 at midday, recovering approximately 3.6% compared to those two time points. At least we can't keep viewing it as weak as last night; the price has already taken a step up. But it has more than doubled in the past month, so continued rise requires buying support. What’s more worth watching next is the pullback range. If the recently recovered part quickly falls back, it means the rebound is not solid; if the pullback is limited and it can rise again surpassing this high point, then the outlook can be more optimistic.
#NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回
$ARB I’m more concerned about how ecosystem development translates to the token. The official position is that ARB is a governance token, and holders can participate in protocol governance. So when we see more projects added to the ecosystem and more on-chain transactions, we need to ask: through what mechanism do these changes increase token demand? If only network users increase without corresponding buying demand, business growth cannot be directly converted into price upside. The projects are worth attention, but whether the token is worth buying requires careful consideration of this intermediate step.
$XRP Around 1.49 today, basically the same as last night, no obvious short-term progress for now. My attitude is to observe first, not rush to find reasons for a catch-up rally. If the market continues to warm up later, whether it can actively move up is more important than just holding steady. If the rebound is always a step slow, we have to accept that it is temporarily not the standout performer.Don't be afraid, brothers, absolutely don't be afraid, short on any pullback rally.
Just short it, that's it. Any pullback rally now is a bull trap, think about it yourselves.
$ZEC dropped from 1412 to 1271, rebounded to 1325 but couldn't go higher.
Every rally is firmly suppressed by the moving averages, each high is lower than the last, and volume is shrinking day by day.
Is this a reversal?
This is the dog whales digging a pit.
Would a real uptrend fail to reach previous highs?
Would it be precisely knocked down at the same spot every time?
I entered a short at 1405.55, now floating profit is 57.21%, the numbers in my account are the best proof.
I'm not in a hurry to exit because until the trend reverses, every rebound is an opportunity to add to the position.
In terms of operation, add more shorts on rebounds in the 1350-1380 range, set stop loss above 1450, target first at 1200, if broken, keep holding.
At this position, anyone chasing longs is just a chump.
$BTC
$SOL
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 This Sunday at 5:30, I casually checked tokenized US stocks — currently the strongest is $xMSTR (MicroStrategy) spot around 163.6, up about 1.7 points compared to the 24-hour open at 160.9, with a daily high of 164.6 and a daily low of 160.8, trading volume about 820,000 U.
BTC is around 85160, ETH near 2700. Corresponding MSTR perpetual contract nominal position is about 24 million dollars, with the rate close to zero. US stock market is closed on the weekend, token market fluctuates on its own. Short term, watch if anyone takes over above the daily high of 164.6; if it falls back to around 160.8, don't chase aggressively.
$BTC $ETH $xMSTR #XMSTR #MSTR #MicroStrategy #USStocks #TokenizedUSStocks
#TheFedAndECBToReleaseSeptemberMeetingMinutes #BTCSpotETFFlowsBackIn,ETHFundsContinueOutflow #Bessent:USBondYieldsRiseInLineWithGlobalTrend
#RiskWarning
The above does not constitute investment advice, control your position size, the market has risks. Nonfarm Payrolls Surprise but Fail to Suppress Long-Term Yields: Crypto Market Faces a Critical Week Amid Macro Divergence
The US September nonfarm payrolls data fell significantly short of expectations, quickly cooling Fed rate hike expectations for October. However, the 10-year US Treasury yield and the US dollar index rose against the trend, showing a typical market divergence. Short-term interest rate pricing eased, while long-term yields remained high due to fiscal supply and energy inflation constraints. This contradictory macro environment is becoming the new pricing backdrop for crypto assets. Next week’s Fed meeting minutes, long-term Treasury auctions, G7 oil reserve releases, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI will be key variables determining the short-term direction of risk assets. The crypto market no longer focuses solely on single employment data; changes in long-term US Treasury yields will become the most important market indicator.
The September nonfarm payrolls surprise brought marginal improvement in expectations, but the Treasury market’s feedback clearly signals that mere employment weakness is insufficient to immediately reverse the high long-term yield environment. The coming week will be a concentrated window for macro data validation, with the Fed minutes, Treasury repo auctions, and energy prices jointly defining the tone for global risk assets in the near term.
The crypto market has entered a new pricing phase: no longer simply following short-term policy rate expectations, the weight of long-term variables such as US fiscal debt supply and energy inflation risk is rising. For traders, rather than chasing daily moves, it is more important to confirm whether long-term yields have truly reached a turning point—this is the fundamental core that will determine how far this rebound can go. $BTC $ETH $ZEC Intel PC processors to rise about 10% again, closed at 119.33 on Friday but dropped about 0.56%, I will observe first and not chase.
Seen: Supply chain news (DIGITIMES source), planned to rise about 10% again starting October 5, the third time in less than a year.
CEO Chen Liwu said memory prices have risen about 5 to 7 times, now even half of the processor orders cannot be filled.
Simply put: it's not that chips can't sell, but memory has pushed up the total machine cost, so Intel raises prices first to maintain gross margin.
On Friday opened about 124.01, high touched 126, low about 118.96, closed 119.33, volume about 95.4 million; previous close 120, surged high but was hammered back.
There were reports that intraday it surged very high, but it didn't hold at the close, indicating the price hike expectation has already been traded ahead.
I think: the price hike story is partially priced in, don't take the intraday high of 126 as Monday's trend over the weekend.
Channel news ≠ official price list, treat it as observation before it takes effect on October 5.
What I will do: observe and not chase.
Watch for a firm hold above about 126, consider the price hike trade failed if it falls below about 118.96.
Do you trust the price hike can support gross margin, or fear PC will be crushed by memory + CPU price increases together?
$INTC $MU $AMD
#FederalReserve and #ECB to release September meeting minutes #BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH funds continue outflowsSome friends don't understand why I don't pay as much attention to the non-farm payrolls anymore. I just think that in the AI era, GDP and employment no longer have to be tied together. If a company uses AI to enable 100 people to do the work that used to require 300 people, then while the company's revenue, profits, and capital expenditures grow, employment may not necessarily increase in sync. In fact, this is the current state in the US: employment keeps falling while AI capital keeps rising. Essentially, companies are buying future productivity, so I choose to focus more on productivity as the main theme beyond just watching the non-farm payrolls.Evening Review
After a day’s trading, the difference between two positions is the most straightforward trading lesson.
$HYPE remains the smart money’s stronghold:
The whale long position profit ratio surged to 77.47%, the nominal long-short ratio continues to rise, and the large holders’ profitable positions are increasingly stacked, with the trend strength clearly visible to the naked eye.
My 20x long position steadily moves upward, with unrealized profit reaching +2526U. Truly comfortable profits are never gambled on; they come from holding in the direction of the main capital flow.
Looking at $BICO, it’s another typical “crowd trap”:
The nominal long-short ratio is as high as 641.35%, with the market seemingly full of longs, but the long position profit ratio is only 39.47%, and even shorts mostly suffer losses; both sides are struggling. Without concentrated main capital force, no matter how many retail investors enter, it’s just a tug of war that can’t support the market.
My 8x full-position long is still deeply underwater at -1319U, with no substantial improvement in unrealized loss and no signs of active buying.
The deepest insight today:
Trends don’t rely on votes, but on real money.
Many look at how many people are long but forget to see if those longs are actually making money; more people ≠ more strength. Only smart money’s sustained profits give the market sustainability.
Trading approach:
- $HYPE: Hold the trend bottom line, don’t exit early, don’t blindly add to positions chasing highs, and hold the profits that should be taken;
- $BICO: No longer hold onto hope by adding positions to bet on a reversal, continue to observe capital signals, and be ready to cut losses and exit if no clear improvement.
The market always rewards following the trend and punishes wishful thinking.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Three lines, one signal: the market is waiting for confirmation
Macro: Rate cut expectations are heating up, but oil prices are causing disruption
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, cooling in employment is a fact. Logically, rate cut trades should follow suit, but the US-Iran situation remains unresolved, and the G7 may release up to 100 million barrels of reserves, making oil prices and inflation expectations harder to tame. High interest rates continue to suppress valuations, and funds are reluctant to shift aggressively.
Funds: ETFs switch from accumulation to tentative withdrawal
$BTC ETFs had net inflows of about $3.1 billion over the previous 9 trading days, but from September 30th over two days, net outflows totaled about $173 million; ETH had net outflows for three consecutive days, with about $55.4 million withdrawn on October 1st alone; SOL spot ETFs still had net inflows of about $188 million last week, but turned to net outflows of about $5.9 million on October 1st. The amounts are not large, but the trend has changed — willingness to chase highs is declining.
Technical: Key levels determine directional ownership
BTC is stuck between 85,000 and 86,000, with 86,000 as the short-term decisive point; if surpassed, it will be treated as consolidation, and 82,000 serves as a lower buffer. ETH is operating between 2,700 and 2,750, with 2,770 as the upper threshold; only after breaking through can 2,800 be observed. SOL is tugging around 120, with 118 as a strong support that must be held.
In summary: Macro signals are not greenlit, ETFs are starting to pull back, and the market is handing direction over to several key levels. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Has $BTC stopped falling? Market signals after the 85,000 battle
After the non-farm payrolls night surge and pullback, BTC did not continue to decline but consolidated with reduced volume above 84,000, closing with a small bullish candle on the daily chart. The price rebounded from around 83,884, touched 85,027.8 intraday, and held steady near 84,900 at the close. This action indicates that support at the 84,000 whole number level remains intact, the previous breakout platform has not been lost, and the current movement looks more like a shakeout and consolidation after a big rise rather than a trend reversal.
On the indicators, SKDJ still maintains a bullish structure after the golden cross, with K at 48.5 and D at 46.7, both lines flattening around the midpoint. The previous pullback appears more like an overbought correction, with no death cross or breakdown signals, so the mid-term upward framework remains intact.
Next, let's look at two directions:
On the upside, 85,500–86,000 is a short-term resistance zone; only a breakout with volume can reopen upward momentum; stronger resistance lies at 87,283, which is the non-farm high and the previous peak of this cycle.
On the downside, 84,000 is the core short-term support; a pullback without breaking this level means the recovery pattern continues; if broken, 82,556 is the low point of this correction and also the mid-term bull lifeline.
Overall, BTC shows short-term signs of stopping the decline but has not yet confirmed a new round of rally. It is more likely to consolidate first before choosing a direction. The mid-term structure is unbroken, and after consolidation, there is still momentum to challenge previous highs again. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 LOL! What happened to the diamond hands? Even big institutions couldn't hold on, chasing high at 110,000 and cutting losses at 78,000! 😂
Oh man, even big institutions can't hold! The publicly listed companies that once preached "crypto faith" are now running faster than rabbits!
Recently, three listed companies quietly liquidated all their BTC holdings, their balances dropping straight to zero.
The funniest has to be Satsuma Technology:
They charged in at a high average price of $115,000, even added more positions in between, but ultimately couldn't hold on and painfully cut losses on 668 BTC at 78,000! This textbook case of chasing highs and selling lows really played out the script of crypto retail investors perfectly. 😭
The other two, KULR and Sequans, also cut 723 and 314 BTC respectively, basically each fending for themselves in a crisis.
The fact proves: in the face of a crash, institutions are just ordinary people too, they can't hold, absolutely can't hold! When it comes to cutting losses, they're even faster than us retail traders! 🤣 Buying API quota with stablecoins still results in value settling back to Ethereum
The zkAPI vault can accept stablecoin quotas, which raises a question: since users are not paying with $ETH, why is it still related to Ethereum's value? The answer lies not in the currency name but in where the settlement occurs. Deposits, closures, and escape routes are executed by Ethereum contracts; asset ownership and double-spend prevention rely on mainnet security; transactions still require Gas, and services depend on Ethereum's state to confirm balances.
However, stablecoin usage cannot be directly converted into $ETH price appreciation. Factors such as fee levels, whether transactions move to L2, contract call frequency, staking security requirements, and whether users maintain on-chain balances long-term all affect value capture. Application growth can increase Ethereum's credibility as a settlement infrastructure, but market pricing is also influenced by liquidity, interest rates, and risk preferences.
A better approach is to separate "business adoption" from "asset demand." First, observe whether services truly have paying users, whether balances persist, and whether exits are smooth; then assess how these activities contribute incremental demand for block space, Gas payments, and security budgets. $ETH's long-term value requires real usage support and a clear transmission path; it cannot rely solely on interpreting any stablecoin news as an immediate positive.🚨 ETHEREUM NEARS A KEY BREAKOUT LEVEL
$ETH is gradually forming an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, with the neckline near $3,000.
Key scenarios:
- 📈 Break above $3,000 → confirms the bullish breakout.
- 🔥 Hold above the breakout zone → could trigger stronger upside momentum.
The $3,000 level remains the key resistance that could determine Ethereum’s next major move.
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge Let's take a look at the Dogecoin section. The idea hasn't changed, and the price levels remain the same. The volume is low during the holiday, so this afternoon's post is just to supplement the data. 【Trading Suggestion】 Direction: Short Entry: 0.1 Add-on: 0.11 Stop loss: 0.12 Around 5 PM, the price was about 0.0932, slightly up from noon's 0.0926, but still about 7% away from 0.1. The small weekend rebound volume is minimal, so no need to pay much attention; no action is needed unless it reaches 0.1. 【Technical Analysis｜1H】 Binance perpetual 1-hour chart, around 17:16. This candlestick opened at 0.09311, high 0.09327, low 0.09300, current price 0.09323. The price is just below the red EQH label, around 0.0934; the green price tag at 0.09357 is still pressing from above. The first layer of red above ranges from 0.0963 to 0.0980, with a mark at 0.09773 labeled "Strong High" at the top; a higher layer lies between 0.1043 and 0.1024. Looking down, "Weak Low" is roughly at 0.0900; then there's a blue zone from 0.0861 to 0.0884, and near the bottom close to 0.0812 there's another line. At OKX, at 4 PM the price reached 0.09349, the highest point in nearly 24 hours, then retreated back just above 0.093. 【Chip Analysis$POL has been in the crypto space for over 6 years. Actually, many traders don't really understand cryptocurrencies, so the popularity of a coin largely determines its market value. Back then, Matipay was very well-known and ranked in the top 7. After the name change, many veteran players thought this coin had disappeared! I strongly suggest everyone vote together in the community to change the name back.BTC 50x long is showing +265K USDT (~110% ROI), but the 1% maintenance margin and 77,697 liquidation price mean a sharp drop could wipe it out instantly. Past realized P&L remains -18K USDT.
A small 7x SKHY long is slightly profitable as a light trial. High-leverage gains are only floating profits—risk management and survival matter more than chasing returns.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
#FedECBMeetingMinutes #BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge $ETH leverage trading, what you really need to understand is not chasing every market hotspot, but thoroughly mastering the two core assets BTC and ETH.
If you find the volatility insufficient, adjust the leverage within your own risk tolerance instead of recklessly amplifying returns.
Large-cap assets have better liquidity and deeper markets, and compared to small-cap altcoins, the risks of extreme manipulation and slippage are usually lower.
For beginners wanting to practice technical analysis, gold $XAU is also a worthwhile asset for long-term study.
As for those small-cap altcoins, they might bring a quick fortune, but they can also go to zero just as fast.
The most important thing in trading is never to try to make money everywhere, but to earn money you understand within your own circle of competence.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 I was in a pretty bad mood today, but checking my account made me feel a bit better—at least the effort wasn't wasted. Yesterday afternoon, the market fluctuated repeatedly; $FLOCK kept falling just short every time it tried to surge, with clear resistance above and volume never catching up. I warned about the pressure at high levels; the rebound was a chance to short.
Entered short at 0.07391, current price 0.06370, +275.74% profit realized. Those on board must be waking up smiling.
Closed 80% of the position, keeping 20% at cost price as protection. If it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don't give the profits back.
Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair on pullbacks. Being out of the market isn't a sin; opening positions recklessly is the mistake.
For friends who haven't entered yet, listen to me: don't chase now, wait for the next signal before moving.
$BNB $DOGE Let's take a look at the Solana section. As before: the view hasn't changed, all price points remain the same. Liquidity is low during the holiday, so this afternoon I'll update the price and data again. 【Operation Suggestion】 Direction: Short Entry: Around 120 Add-on: 125 Stop loss: 140 Around 5 PM, the price was about 120.9, still within the short position range near 120. This is just to explain the current price position; the plan content has no additions or reductions. The add-on at 125 and stop loss at 140 are still far away, and with thin weekend volume, there's no need to change the approach due to a few cents' fluctuation during the session. 【Technical Analysis｜1H】 Binance perpetual 1-hour chart, snapshot taken around 17:16. Latest price 120.90, this candle opened at 120.93, high 121.00, low 120.76, another narrow small candle. The recent few candles have a red P mark above, around 121.7, price hasn't touched it yet. The red zone above from 121.8 to 123.3 remains unchanged, the mark at 122.42 is still inside; the Weak High line is roughly drawn at 123.8. The green price label below changed from 119.08 to 119.54, attached to a narrow blue band around 119.0 to 119.9. Further below is a whole blue area extending from 116.2 to 118.3, the lower edge is the "Strong Low". OKX's 1-hour...$AXS — Damn, the shakeout is getting brutal! 📉 AXS is taking a serious beating, and the price action suggests that larger players may be aggressively moving and unloading positions. 💡 But there’s an important level to watch. The chart shows strong support around 1.24, with the latest candle forming a noticeable lower wick after the sell-off. That suggests buyers are still defending this zone. My setup: 🎯 Entry: 1.2454 🛑 Stop-loss: 1.21 🎯 First target: 1.32 Don’t get greedy, and most importaMy current judgment is:
Phase B has not been broken, and it is healthier than at 84K yesterday.
But it cannot yet be said that it has re-entered the "accelerated main rise."
Currently it belongs to:
87K surge → 84K pullback → 85K recovery
This is a relatively standard high-level oscillation/pullback confirmation process after a breakout.
The three most important positions for BTC now:
85K
This is the current central axis.
Holding above 85K indicates that the selling pressure near 84K yesterday is being digested.
85.7–86K
This is the next confirmation level.
If BTC breaks through and holds here again, I will start to lean towards:
The 84K pullback has ended → challenge 87K again.
87.2–87.4K
This is the real breakout threshold at present.
If it surges here again and can effectively break through, then Phase B will be significantly strengthened.
I am now reordering the probabilities:
First: Continue to rise
Probability: currently the highest
Path:
85K
→ 85.7K
→ 86K
→ 87K
→ 87.4K breakout
Once 87.4K is truly broken, the market structure will change.
Next, I will watch:
88.5K → 90K → 92K
Even after 90K, market sentiment will change significantly.
Second: Continue sideways
This is actually very normal.
For example:
83.8–86.5K
Oscillate back and forth for a few days.
Even appearing as:
85.8 → 84.2 → 85.5 → 84.7 → 86
No need to be too nervous $BTC Let's take a look at the Ethereum section. The outlook remains the same, and the key levels are still the same set, unchanged. On Sunday afternoon, volume is naturally low during the holiday; this article is simply to supplement the data. 【Operation Suggestions】 Short position: set up around 2,780 Short stop loss: none was given initially, risk control is up to everyone to manage Long position: light position around 2,650 Add to long position: 2,600 Long stop loss: break below 2,400 Around 5 PM in the afternoon, the price was about 2,698. About 80 points away from 2,780, about 50 points from 2,650, neither side has been reached yet. Weekend trading is thin; a fluctuation of 10 to 20 points during the session doesn't mean much. Follow the plan according to whichever price level it reaches. 【Technical Analysis｜1H】 Binance perpetual 1-hour chart, snapshot taken around 17:16. Latest price 2,698.22, this K-bar opened at 2,699.16, high 2,699.57, low 2,696.49, a very short small black K-bar. The previous two bars tried to push up, with the wick roughly touching 2,707, then sold back below 2,700. The price is now pressing above the green line at 2,691.47, with a BOS label next to it. Below the green line are two layers of blue: upper layer about 2,671–2,685, lower layer 2,650–2,667, Strong Low around 2,648. The red zone from 2,740 to 2,788 is still overhead, inside that 2📋 $BTC Weekly Review: Range approximately 82,900 to 87,200, ended the weekend at 84,900, almost flat for the week
PCE, ADP, and Nonfarm triple hit, the market took a roller coaster ride, net gain for 7 days only about 0.5%
Why is the 87,000 barrier so hard to break?
📈 Price Card:
· Weekly range approximately 82,900 to 87,200｜Weekend about 84,900｜7 days about +0.5%
· 87,000 has been a resistance level for most of this year (21Shares)
🗓️ Three major events this week:
1️⃣ PCE cooling: BTC surged to 85,639 then retraced
2️⃣ ISM Price Index 77.9, 10-year US Treasury yield surged to 5.34%
3️⃣ Nonfarm only increased by 29,000: BTC surged to 87,239 then retraced
💰 ETF Funds:
BTC +82.9 million (last week +2.39 billion)｜$ETH -118 million｜$SOL +800,000
⚙️ Contracts: Open interest about 53.6 billion USD, weekend liquidations only about 4.24 million USD, market is quiet
🔮 Next week: Whether BTC can close above 87,000, whether ETF volume will pick up again, changes in December rate hike expectations.
What do you think about BTC next week?
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Woke up and still see this crazy coin hovering around 1300. After swinging in dozens of directions in a day, it finally settled here. Looks like the dog whales are doing quantitative trading to accumulate during the sideways movement. My short position opened at 800 probably won't break even until who knows when. I've been stuck for over a month and haven't dared to make any moves. Sideways trading is just torture; those who aren't firm have already cut losses and left. But I insist on being theTrump's "Trillion-Dollar Red Envelope": A High-Stakes Gamble with Triple Bubbles
Trump has once again proposed a $5,000 "citizen dividend" plan. If the Republican Party sweeps both chambers, 240 million American adults will share a $1.2 trillion cake. This is not only the largest stimulus since the pandemic but also an extreme test of market sentiment.
If the plan is implemented, a short-term frenzy will sweep through three types of assets: Bitcoin will be the first to benefit, as expectations of liquidity flooding will reignite the scarcity narrative; gold, as a traditional inflation hedge, will regain favor amid concerns over the dilution of the US dollar's credit; US stocks may see a flood of retail investor funds, but caution is needed against a valuation cliff after the "good news is fully priced in."
However, this high-stakes gamble hides three paradoxes: first, restrictions on funds for "domestic consumption" may push inflation higher, creating a wage-price spiral; second, the legality of bypassing Congressional approval is questionable, with many uncertainties in execution; third, US debt has already exceeded $35 trillion, and adding another $1.2 trillion will exacerbate the risk of fiscal deficit monetization.
The market may initially rise out of respect, but smart money is already calculating: when the stimulus tide recedes, who will catch the bubbles propped up by liquidity? Trump's "red envelope" feels more like a strong stimulant—short-term euphoria, long-term scars. For traders, going long on volatility may be wiser than chasing asset price highs themselves.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 A 0.16% margin rate feels like dancing on the edge of a knife. 🔪 If I don’t lock in some profits soon, tonight is going to be another sleepless night. Listen to the advice: reduce the position, protect the capital, and stay alive. Brothers, the moment I saw 0.16% in my account, I honestly felt a cold sweat. It had already fallen from 0.39% → 0.29% → 0.16%. I was basically pushing myself closer and closer to the liquidation line. Position Update $BCH — The comeback king! Full position, 10x lever$ZEC [Note on Figure 1: ZEC daily candlestick chart, current price 1323.48, 24-hour increase of 1.62%. This wave started near 249, peaked at 1695.50, then pulled back from the high, currently in a high-level correction phase. The chart shows previous buy and sell markers from the back-and-forth battle between bulls and bears.]
This round of ZEC is a super bull market driven by the privacy narrative, with a violent surge followed by a high-level pullback. The daily indicator KD has entered a low position, offering a short-term opportunity for oversold recovery, but overall it remains a high-level consolidation after a major bull run. Resistance above is in the 1400-1695 range, with support near 1206 below.
[Note on Figure 2: Screenshot of ZEC 20x short grid strategy, running for 44 days, the strategy has paused after exceeding the range, with a total investment of 45.1 and a significant cumulative loss.]
This is the big pitfall I previously fell into: a 20x leveraged short grid. I was bearish on its valuation long-term but underestimated the damage caused by a strong one-sided trend. The grid logic is to arbitrage in a range-bound market; when faced with such a trending bull market, the grid range is directly broken, and leverage quickly amplifies floating losses.
Many traders' biggest enemy is the unwillingness to admit mistakes. Holding a subjective long-term bearish view, they go straight to high-leverage shorts, ignoring short-term trends. Even if the long-term logic is correct, without the short-term trend, high leverage can severely damage the account.
In the environment of 5% US Treasury yields, privacy coins are a strong thematic speculation without stable cash flow, entirely driven by capital sentiment. Once the market starts, the price increase can far exceed expectations, making high-leverage shorting against the trend extremely risky. To put it simply, the news is that Trump is once again emphasizing his midterm promise to give everyone $5000, and this time he's even more determined. If this really comes true, it would be like helicopter money being dropped; the extra liquidity has to flow into something, and large-cap assets like $BTC and $ETH would definitely be the prime targets.
This directly relates to my two core holdings. I opened a long position on $BTC at 84754 with 100x leverage; and a long on $ETH at 2681.3, also 100x. Currently, one has an unrealized profit of 8 USD, the other 15 USD—not much, but with high leverage, what’s most needed is a grand narrative that can change the overall market sentiment and capital flow to drive it. If the market buys into this "big liquidity injection" expectation and starts trading on it, then these two positions of mine could see more than just small gains; it might trigger a major upward wave. I plan to hold tight and let the bullets fly.
However, there’s always another side. If the market thinks it’s just empty talk, or this news has already been priced in, then it’s useless. The most direct signal to watch is the price: if $BTC can’t even hold the current 84985 level and starts dropping, or if $ETH can’t push above 2695 and just fizzles out, that means no one is really paying attention to this, it’s pure noise. My high-leverage longs are actually more dangerous in such times, so I have to be ready to exit at any moment.
Don’t let the news lead you by the nose; watching how the price moves is what really matters. Good afternoon, family.Let's take a look at the Bitcoin section. To conclude: my view remains the same, and the price levels have not changed at all. Liquidity is naturally low on weekends; this afternoon's article mainly provides the latest data update for everyone. 【Trading Suggestion】 Direction: Long (original plan, now just for reference) Entry range: 83,000–83,500 Add-on point: 81,000 Stop loss point: 78,000 Take profit point: 86,000 Current stance: If you can take profit, definitely exit; no new entry calls. The 2 PM candle first touched 85,000, closed above it at 3 PM, and around 5 PM hovered near 85,103. However, there is still about a 900-point gap to the 86,000 take profit. Weekend trading volume is thin; one or two large orders can easily push the price up or down. I won't use this kind of movement as a new signal. For those still holding positions, if the price reaches the take profit, close it; for those without positions, these numbers are purely for reference, and no entry is called in this article. 【Technical Analysis｜1H】 This afternoon's chart is Binance perpetual 1-hour, captured around 17:16. The latest price on screen is 85,103.5; the current candle opened at 85,063.1, high 85,103.6, low 85,004.4, with a very small body. The green line at 84,472.5 from noon has been replaced; now it is the green price mark at 84,677.3, supported below by a blue band roughly between 84,500 and 84,700.These two small bullish candles may look like stabilization, but don’t be fooled. Look at the past four days of price action together, and the behavior of the major players becomes much clearer. At around 2:30 PM on October 1st, $ETH suddenly began dropping through several consecutive 5-minute candles without any obvious catalyst. After spending so long consolidating at elevated levels, this was the first clear instance of aggressive selling pressure. A move like that can be more revealing than Day 34, October 3rd, single-day loss of -2,156.67 yuan. Account cumulative profit and loss -2,156.67 yuan, starting October with two consecutive days of losses. $BTC $ETH
On this day, Bitcoin consolidated around $84,000, Ethereum fell below $2,680, down 1.15% in 24 hours. Major coins showed clear divergence, not a one-sided market, more like high-level rotation. The total market capitalization was about $2.89 trillion, down 3.15% in 24 hours, trading volume expanded by 26.3% compared to the previous day, but market cap actually declined—an increase in volume with a drop in market cap indicates selling pressure remains, local rebounds do not equal broad gains.
However, the macro environment is undergoing drastic changes.
US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below the expected 90,000, with July and August revised down by a total of 60,000. After the data release, the probability of a rate hike in October dropped sharply from 70% a week ago to 14%-25%. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Jefferson and New York Fed President Williams both stated "no rush to raise rates again," and the market quickly lowered rate hike bets.
At the same time, the SEC proposed a new crypto asset custody framework allowing investment advisors and funds to self-custody digital assets under certain conditions, seen by the market as a substantial positive for institutional entry. Citi even raised Bitcoin’s 12-month target price sharply from $82,000 to $113,000, and Ethereum’s target from $2,240 to $3,028.
The macro is warming up, but I am losing money.
The reason is simple—I chased long positions near $84,500, betting that the nonfarm data would drive BTC to break through. But after Bitcoin surged to $87,000, it quickly pulled back, and I was stopped out during the retracement. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $349 million, with long liquidations reaching $307 million, accounting for 88%. Bitcoin long liquidations were $71.26 million, Ethereum long liquidations $65 million. I am just a speck of dust in those over $300 million.
Thirty-four days have passed. From the roller coaster in September to the consecutive losses at the start of October, Bitcoin rose 7.33% cumulatively in September, Ethereum nearly 10%, yet my cumulative profit and loss over two months remains negative. Rate hike expectations are cooling, institutional target prices are rising, ETH spot ETFs have net inflows exceeding $800 million in nearly 30 days—all signals say "the big picture hasn’t changed," but my positions have never waited for the day the direction materializes.
What these 2,156 yuan taught me is not how to judge direction, but to survive until that day before the direction arrives. Elon Musk talks about intelligence, while the crypto world is busy with secret codes 😂
He did indeed change AI to SI in a previous public speech, but mentioning that term is completely different from recommending Super Inu.
Looking at this news flash, I think what people are trading is not "this project suddenly became valuable," but rather "will others rush in when they see these two letters?"
It's not about researching artificial intelligence, but about studying the associative ability of the next group of people.
I don't deny that such hot topics present trading opportunities. But just because the abbreviation coincides doesn't mean it's connected to Musk, nor does it mean the project suddenly gained technology, users, or revenue.
What I am most wary of is buying while fully aware it's just riding the hype, then after buying, seriously analyzing "Is Musk hinting at something?" Initially intending a short-term trade, but ending up fabricating a long-term story for your position.
He can change topics at no cost, but when we follow, it's real money on the line.
With these celebrity-driven Meme waves, will you ride the emotional surge or just watch others profit?Of course, here’s a rewritten version that sounds more natural and like a real trader’s post:
Although I’ve made 467% profit shorting $ZEC, I’m not going to force a bearish stance just for the sake of shorting.
Instead, I want to remind the bulls out there: there’s probably no need to panic in the short term.
Let’s look at some data.
According to the latest CoinGlass data, the long-short ratio among Binance’s top traders has reached 1.6172, showing that whales are clearly more bullish; meanwhile, retail traders have a long-short ratio between 0.85 and 1.16, with shorts actually accumulating.
Simply put:
Whales are leaning bullish, retail traders are chasing shorts.
In this setup, a short squeeze rebound in the short term can’t be ruled out — it might first flush out the short chasers before deciding the next direction.
But note, my medium- to long-term bearish view on $ZEC remains unchanged.
Fundamental pressures still exist: insider selling, regulatory expectations, ETF capital outflows, and other issues haven’t been truly resolved.
So my approach is clear:
Respect the capital signals in the short term, but remain bearish in the medium to long term.
I won’t close my shorts just because there might be a short-term rebound, but if prices rise, I’ll consider rolling and adjusting my positions.
For longs that are stuck, it’s actually a good opportunity to reduce positions during the rebound — don’t mistake a single bounce for a trend reversal.
Until the bottom is confirmed, it’s better to be slow than to chase hastily.
The market is always changing; follow the money, not the emotions.
$BTC $SOL
#FedECBMeetingMinutes Less than 3 years ago, the SEC was still fighting over a plain spot Bitcoin $ETF. Now it has cleared the exchange rules for 3x $BTC and $ETH products. Kinda wild how fast this changed.
To me, the bigger signal is not the leverage itself. It’s that $BTC is being folded into the same product machine as gold, oil and natural gas.
These funds still need effective S-1 registrations before trading starts, so they’re not live yet. But the direction is hard to miss.Yesterday, a brother messaged me privately. He told me he had lost three months’ worth of salary on $ZEC and asked me if I thought he should keep holding. I didn’t reply. Because three months ago, I was the one holding on. I know that feeling all too well—the middle-of-the-night wake-ups, grabbing the phone to check the price, palms sweating, heart racing, wondering whether tomorrow will be even worse. So today, with my two short positions showing around +434% floating profit on $ZEC and +88% on