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#BTC whale sell pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks
Whales have stopped dumping, ETFs are still buying: Is this BTC rally not a fake rebound?
Many haven't caught on yet, but the market logic has already changed.
What was the biggest fear before? Old whales transferring coins to exchanges to distribute at high levels, no matter how much ETFs buy, it gets absorbed. Now it's different — the volume of whale transfers to exchanges continues to decline, on-chain sell pressure is clearly weakening, early large holders seem more like "holding steady" rather than "selling on rallies."
On the other hand, the US spot BTC ETF has had net inflows for three consecutive weeks. Although last week's pace was much more restrained compared to the 20 billion surge in September, "continuous positive inflows" are more important than a "single-week spike": it shows institutional funds are not just passing through but continuously accumulating between 85,000 and 87,000.
Simply put, the market is shifting:
Old coins move less, new institutions are slowly building positions.
Sell pressure retreats, buying advances, so the price naturally dares not drop sharply.
But don't get carried away:
🔹 87,400 is the weekly breakout confirmation level
🔹 84,000–85,000 is the support zone
🔹 Breaking below 82,000 means the story resets
My personal view:
Whales not dumping + ETF continued inflows = medium-term bullish bias;
But until the daily chart breaks key resistance, chasing the rally is less advisable than waiting for a pullback.
Are you holding to wait for a breakout, or sitting out to watch?It has been exactly 364 days since the last Bitcoin peak.
This number holds some mystical significance in the crypto community. BlockBeats compiled the patterns from the past 10 years: from the 2015 low to the 2017 high was about 1064 days, from the 2017 high to the 2018 low about 364 days; from the 2018 low to the 2021 high again about 1064 days, and from the 2021 high to the 2022 low still about 364 days.
The last peak was on October 7, 2025. Following this rhythm, today would theoretically be the "bear market bottom day," and the next phase should be a new upward cycle.
Analysts have already started calling the top: alicharts expects BTC to reach $190,000 and ETH to $8,800; Peter Brandt says the market has likely seen the cycle low, raising his end-of-2029 target from $250,000–$300,000 to $300,000–$600,000; trader Killa predicts BTC will break its all-time high between April 26 and August 2, 2027.
A reminder: four cycle samples are too few, patterns do not guarantee outcomes, and the date might just mean continued sideways trading. At the time of writing, OKX shows BTC around 85,850, fluctuating between 84,980 and 86,720 in 24 hours.
Not investment advice.
$190,000, $300,000, or $600,000 — which level do you bet this Bitcoin cycle will top at?
$BTC Ethereum developers pushed a last-minute software fix ahead of today’s Glamsterdam Sepolia testnet upgrade. The fix addresses a configuration issue so the test can properly evaluate a major increase in Ethereum’s block capacity.
The Sepolia test is scheduled for 13:53:36 UTC today (Oct. 6), testing a 200M gas limit. This is not the Ethereum mainnet launch—the mainnet date is still undecided. FIL 1.19｜ICP 3.44｜NEAR 5.16｜AVAX 11.24｜HYPE 93.21
The five resilient strong coins today are moving together. FIL surged the most, sealing the day with an 11% gain to claim the top spot; ICP rose 4%, NEAR ended up 1.5%, AVAX nearly 2%, and HYPE held up with a 1% gain. In recent days, capital has clearly favored coins with real income, resembling rotation rather than a crash. FIL holding 1.05 aims for 1.4; ICP 3.2 is the lifeline; NEAR 4.9 is the watershed; AVAX 10.8, if not broken, can still push to 12; HYPE 88 is a dense chip area. Roles: FIL is storage; ICP is AI; NEAR is intent; AVAX is subnet; HYPE is perp. If BTC holds steady at 85K tonight, strong coins can all breathe a sigh of relief. $FIL L $ICP #SEC提出《加密资产监管》草案，CLARITY法案9月审议 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Ethereum developers pushed a last-minute software fix ahead of today’s Glamsterdam Sepolia testnet upgrade. The fix addresses a configuration issue so the test can properly evaluate a major increase in Ethereum’s block capacity. Did nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the K-line had already done the work for me. During the intraday bottoming, I watched $SHAZ; several rebounds were weak and soft, with insufficient support, heavy false bullish signals, and clear pressure at the high level.
At that time, I advised not to rush to buy SHAZ, to open a short position since there was resistance above, volume didn't keep up, and no one was supporting the rise. While everyone was still watching, I placed the short order first and waited for it to deflate on its own, which is much more comfortable than chasing it.
Battle results: from 48.77 to 48.13, a return of +12.91%, nailed it. The wait was worth it; those in the car should have woken up laughing.
Don't lose patience in the consolidation and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
Don't get greedy with profits, don't despair over pullbacks.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price for protection; if it continues to drop, let the profits run, but don't give back profits on the rebound. Move again when the next signal appears; the market is not short of opportunities, but it lacks patience.
$SNDK $XRP Brothers, I found something strange. $SOL dropped 1% in 24 hours, but the trading volume was only 60% of usual.
The drop isn't severe, but the volume disappeared first.
It's like a vegetable market where the stalls are still set up, but everyone has left. It's not that no one wants to buy; both buyers and sellers are just too lazy to move. I usually don't dare to act recklessly during this kind of low-volume gradual decline. Before the direction is clear, entering just means providing liquidity for others.
The 120 level looks okay, but without volume support, it's just paper-thin. I'll hold onto what I have for now, neither adding nor cutting, and wait for the volume to come back before making a move. $SOL Just said it would flip and it flipped, SUI directly dumped in one wave, gained a bit during the day but gave it all back, current price $1.19 down over 4%, Move system is just that volatile. BTC is watching the 85K midline, if it breaks, the whole market will be under pressure; ETH support at 2650, if broken look at 2600; SUI's slow decline is the most frustrating, don't get hyped just because it turns red briefly, ecosystem coins have the most retail investors and are easiest to be manipulated. Watch key levels closely, spikes are meant to kill aggressive traders. If SUI holds 1.15, it can still target 1.25, if broken it will return to 1.1 to consolidate. Liquidity is thin intraday, don't place orders too fully, wait for daily close to confirm direction before acting. $SUI #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% Smart money is withdrawing, and you're still rushing in? On-chain data shows institutions are reducing positions in high-level tokens, whales are hoarding BTC spot, and retail investors are chasing memes. Three different actions in the same market make it clear who is taking the risk. XRP dropped nearly two points today to 1.50, Ripple's cross-border payment corridors are still expanding, underlying demand is real, but short-term it is dragged down by the broader market. The strategy is straightforward: don't chase longs if XRP faces resistance at $1.55, watch for support at $1.45 before considering entry; without volume support, it's just false fire; wait for BTC to hold above 85K before following, don't get ahead of yourself. The worst is buying in when smart money is taking profits, becoming liquidity for others to exit. $XRP #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% History is rhyming and is now rhyming back.
In October 39 years ago, the same flavor: the US stock market had just hit a historic high, long-term bond yields were soaring, the Federal Reserve was still raising rates, the shadow of inflation was looming closer, and the Japanese bond market was also in severe turmoil. On October 19, 1987, everyone suddenly rushed to the exit at the same time—the Dow plunged 22.6% in a single day, and the S&P 500 dropped 20.5% in one day.
Today's puzzle is almost a replica: the Nasdaq just hit a historic high, the 10-year US Treasury yield touched 5.35% intraday, the 30-year reached 5.70%, the Fed just raised rates to 3.75%-4.00% in September; Japan's 30-year government bond yield is 4.235%, directly hitting a historic high; the US ISM Services Price Index also rose to 74.
On the stock market side, money is still crazily pricing growth and AI, the higher it goes, the more it feels fine; on the bond market side, prices have already started pricing in higher inflation and interest rates in advance, making money more expensive.
Of course, history does not repeat itself exactly. But the most alarming signals are already on the table: either the bond market or the stock market has miscalculated.Data shows that a major holder increased their unrealized gains position on HYPE today instead of cashing out, which is very telling. The operation is quite the contrast: no profit-taking, instead adding to HYPE and reducing other high-level AI tokens, betting that this on-chain perpetual DEX leader will continue to strengthen. HYPE: spot price at $93.21, up nearly one point, average entry at 88, current unrealized gains; how to interpret: this native order book chain's real trading volume and fee income are directly used for buyback and burn, making the underlying traffic hard currency. Deleveraging bets by shifting positions to the strongest moat within the sector, don't stubbornly hold weak coins. #OKX星球话题来啦 $HYPE #标普领投Kaiko，布局链上数据标准 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC is fine now, big brother, stop rising, let me unwind my hedged altcoin short positions please Many friends have asked why StarkNet suddenly crashed more than 9% today. Let me explain briefly, don’t rush. First, some common sense: STRK is currently priced at $0.0519, dropping sharply today from 0.057 directly below 0.05, which looks scary. What’s the core issue? The ZK Rollup technology narrative is solid, but the problem lies in the token unlocking pressure not yet fully absorbed, combined with the overall market pullback. High Beta small coins are the first to be hit hard. Its sharp drop doesn’t mean the logic has collapsed; it just means the token distribution is weak. Once the unlocking slope slows down and TVL genuinely climbs, confidence will return. This kind of spike mainly hits leveraged positions; spot holders shouldn’t panic sell. No rush, wait for weekly chart recovery. $STRK #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Last night I listened to Green Hair's live stream, and indeed, shorting shorting shorting can make some profit. In this kind of volatile market, a slight change in pattern can ruin everything; you can't rely on fate, so you just have to honestly do short-term trades.
Suddenly in my sleep, I felt that BTC might be entering an uptrend. Now it's dragging on, enduring, breaking new highs, then pulling back, and breaking new highs again. The pace is slow, but the structure is there.
ETH didn't break 2640 last night and then went up. Judging by this momentum, it might push to 2800, then pull back. Let's wait and see first, don't rush to chase.
Was there anyone who made some profit in last night's big move? I took small bites, not greedy, as long as there's profit.
$ETH $BTC #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 The operational approach remains unchanged: one side with mainstream leaders, the other with low-positioned established public chains; the barbell strategy is the most stable. Spot: Hold AVAX, which rose nearly 2% today to $11.24. The Avalanche subnet narrative is repeatedly mentioned on the institutional side, with real developers and enterprises onboarding steadily. On-chain real transaction counts have never stopped; Contracts: Long AVAX positions, targeting the $12 resistance level, with stop-loss set below $10.8—if broken, exit without holding stubbornly. Some other positions previously tested had poor data, so no additional investment was made, but the outcome was unexpected—AVAX proved so strong today that minimizing losses is winning. The strategy is laid out here; everyone judge for themselves. Slow is fast. $AVAX #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% $SPCX rocket successfully reached 170, unexpectedly surged overnight. At this position, long positions can consider reducing some holdings, and keep the rest to see if it can push to 180 tonight. Previously, the call to go long at 146.3 surged all the way to 170 with almost no resistance.
The remaining one is Sandisk $SNDK, which also tested 1681 last night and successfully broke below 1700. Short positions are still being held.
The hardest to trade is $BTC Bitcoin, consolidating sideways at a high level, repeatedly triggering stop losses. Crypto is getting harder to trade, not as certain as US stocks.A common signal across multiple coins: today, those resisting the market downturn are all coins with "real income." ASTER rose over 2% to $0.7414, with Dexe's perp DEX fee buyback narrative being the strongest; RENDER rose over 2% to 2.06, reflecting real demand for decentralized computing power leasing; QNT rose over 1.5% to 257, supported by institutional cooperation for its enterprise-grade interoperable Overledger. The commonality among the three: they all have underlying cash flow and are not purely sentiment-driven. But the shared risk is that all are at relatively high levels compared to the broader market, and if BTC breaks the 83.6K support, these high-valuation assets will also fall sharply. Until the direction is clear, stay patient and don't mistake the moat for a safety net. $ASTER $RENDER $QNT #特朗普媒体链上转账2628BTC，性质未披露 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 AI inference costs have dropped 99.99% in one year, and I was stunned the first time I saw this number.
Simply put, for the same performance work, last year it cost 10,000 yuan, and this year not even one yuan is needed.
Wood Sister uses this to make a point: OpenAI's revenue grew from 20 billion to 70 billion, demand wasn't crushed by low prices, but rather was fed and expanded.
In the past, people feared deflation, thinking that cheap things meant no one would buy.
Her logic is the opposite: when prices drop to a certain level and usage grows enough to support volume, companies actually make more profit.
I agree with half of this story.
The direction isn't new, but AI's cost reduction speed is indeed more intense than the early internet days.
The question is how long it will take to transmit this to the real economy, no one can say for sure.
In the crypto world, it's more direct; the AI narrative has long been tied to crypto, and funds that truly believe in this will sooner or later look for targets in computing power, data, and Agents.
Let's keep an eye on it first, don't rush to treat deflation as a bullish factor to speculate on.
#Anthropic拟11月启动IPO，目标于感恩节前上市
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 $ZEC LIT and NEAR have taken off.
BTC is still tying its shoelaces in place.
$LIT around 3.994, up 9.5%.
Positions increased by 14.4%.
Price and leverage are surging together.
There is selling pressure near $4.14.
Is the funding rate chasing longs?
Easy to hit profit-taking.
Others are full, you pay the bill.
$NEAR around 5.249, up 8.4%.
Positions only increased by 1.6%.
Spot is driving.
NEAR Intents September fees hit a yearly high.
Above $5.37 needs volume to continue.
No volume?
Rally turns into gasping.
$BTC around 85,500.
Down 0.7% in 24 hours.
Below EMA20 at 85,713.
RSI about 45.
Positions reduced by 1.4%.
Leverage did not follow the rebound.
Two attempts to push 87,000, then fell back.
Spot demand is weak.
Like dating:
Met twice, no follow-up.
OKX smart money is 55.5% bullish on BTC.
Total positions increased by about 1.05 million.
Average long cost 86,012.
Action:
Close above 86,050 on the hourly and hold on pullback.
Light long position.
Stop loss at 85,620.
Target 86,800.
About 1.7R.
Break below 84,900 first?
Cancel longs.
Wait for support to reform.
Just venting.
Not investment advice.
$LIT $NEAR $BTC
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$API3 Short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -1%, price +0.59%, open interest +8.2%. The rise is accompanied by increased positions; holding shorts through settlement faces both adverse price movements and funding fee expenses.
$AEON Short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0649%, price -1.32%, open interest -1.78%. The decline is accompanied by reduced positions; new positions have not yet matched; holding shorts through settlement at the current rate, funding fees will lower the breakeven price. SOL current price is $119.81, down more than one and a half points below 120, the technical level just retreated from the 120 mark, volume is decent but not strong. Core logic: Solana's high throughput narrative remains, meme and DeFi ecosystem activity on-chain is visibly active, and the expectation of spot ETF approval provides mid-term support. Mid-term analysis: Hold mid-term positions steadily, watch closely the 125 level, if it holds, look towards 135; if it falls below 115, it returns to a consolidation range, waiting for the next trigger. Before the ETF expectation materializes, avoid heavy bets on direction, buying the dip is safer than chasing highs. Position management is more important than guessing direction, keep ammunition for pullbacks to be more comfortable, don't stubbornly hold in weakness. $SOL #标普领投Kaiko，布局链上数据标准 #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 ICP rose more than four points today to $3.44. The "world computer" narrative of Internet Computer has been brought up again, but it needs to be viewed dialectically. On the optimistic side: it is backed by native capabilities of on-chain hosting and AI inference, and the community has recently been promoting on-chain large models, making the narrative highly recognizable; on the pessimistic side: the token unlocking schedule has not been fully digested, the real TVL is still small compared to ETH L2, and the price increase is mostly driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals. Don't blindly buy this kind of coin; only consider it if the 3.2 support level holds on a pullback, chasing highs is easy to get trapped. No matter how good the narrative is, you have to look at the chip structure. Don't let FOMO lead you astray. Before the direction is clear, be patient and wait for the weekly close confirmation before taking action. $ICP #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% 🔥 Keep an eye on these 3 main threads in crypto tonight: BTC ETH $SOL
1️⃣ The Strait of Hormuz remains in a "highly threatened forced passage" state. From October 3 to 5, multiple vessels were hit by unidentified projectiles, and an oil tanker was ordered to turn back by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. OPEC+ also decided to keep production unchanged in November. Oil prices remain high, inflation and liquidity concerns persist, which short-term suppress BTC and ETH; but once geopolitical tensions ease, risk appetite recovery could come quickly.
2️⃣ Solana's on-chain tokenized stock trading volume exceeded $4.4 billion in September, hitting a record high. This is not just an ecological narrative but an acceleration of traditional financial assets moving on-chain. The SEC has granted temporary exemptions, opening regulatory space for tokenized stock trading.
3️⃣ OKX and NYSE parent company ICE have formed a joint venture, OKXICE, and have applied to the SEC to launch a tokenized US stock trading platform, initially covering 63 companies including Nvidia and Apple. If realized, on-chain US stock trading could shift from narrative to real traffic entry.
💥 My judgment:
In the short term, BTC and ETH need to guard against shocks from macro and geopolitical factors; but in the medium to long term, RWA, tokenized stocks, and stablecoins are becoming new incremental narratives in the crypto market. The SOL line is especially worth watching. The next bull market may not just be about trading coins but trading "financial assets on-chain."
SOL #BTC #ETH #RWA #TokenizedStocks #CryptoMarket
$BTC $ETH $ZEC REEF was chased directly; the current price is $0.000688, up more than two points today. Small caps in the Polkadot ecosystem were ignited by funds today. With smaller market caps, funds can push prices up easily, and these kinds of tokens are most driven by sentiment. But a surge is always followed by a crash. Prepare to set up short positions at the high point, but don’t rush to short; wait until it can’t push higher before acting. Don’t catch the top. The waterfall drop comes faster than the rise, so be cautious. Take profits first before thinking about reversing positions; don’t get carried away. If the overall market weakens, these small caps won’t even be able to escape. For REEF, watch 0.00075 this round, with a stop loss below 0.00065. If it breaks below, accept it and don’t hold stubbornly. Small cap coins have thin liquidity, so don’t place orders too fully; spikes are designed to kill greed. Keep it up, everyone; rhythm is more important than direction. $REEF #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 After the good news is out, the market doesn't move—this happens often, no need to overreact.
Whether the news is valuable can be seen in the order book during the first half hour after it lands. Whether buyers step in, whether there's support on the pullback—all is written in the trades. What matters is the orders placed; no matter how flashy the headline is, it can't replace that. The thickness of the order book can't be faked; all orders are real money. Who's buying, who's selling—it's all clear when laid out.
The trades in the few minutes after the news lands are the most honest. If buy orders are thin and sell orders keep pressing down layer by layer, you can dismiss that news at a glance. Whether someone supports the pullback is more direct than any analysis. If someone supports it, $SOL still has the confidence to move up.
During the hype half-day, the orders at the forefront often come from people chasing the news; after buying, they just wait for the next louder news. Whether it's selling off or adding positions, the real moves are hidden in the trades. Just watching the hype won't reveal the truth. The orders chasing the news stay there, turning into someone else's counterparty.
Those who get lured in impulsively end up with a higher cost than others, get annoyed after holding for a couple of days, sell reluctantly, and then blame the market for being weak.
Turning off all notifications except price alerts can save most of the impulsiveness. Only react when the price moves; if it doesn't, just ignore it and press your phone less.
Next time you see big news, first check the trades in those few minutes after it lands, then decide whether to act.Markets that never close this is probably the part of OKX NOW that interests me most.
Traditional markets were built around opening bells, closing times and weekdays. Crypto changed that expectation completely: once you get used to markets operating 24/7, waiting for Monday morning suddenly feels a little outdated.
Personally, I think the bigger opportunity goes beyond crypto. If more traditional assets eventually move onchain, we could be heading toward a world where trading, settlement and moving money become much less restricted by market hours.
That doesn’t mean every market needs to trade every second. Liquidity, regulation and investor protection still matter.
But I do think the direction is becoming clearer:
Finance is slowly moving from “market hours” toward “market access.”
And if tokenization, onchain settlement and digital money keep developing together, 24/7 markets may eventually feel normal rather than revolutionary. 👀
That’s one idea from OKX NOW I’ll definitely be watching.
#OKXNOW:24x7MarketEra $BTC Sis's current holdings are so real: half is emotional expectation, half is a stubborn persistence
Breaking down the three positions reveals the reality for many traders:
‑ DOGE｜50X full position long, opened at 0.09451, currently a slight floating profit of +6.72%, holding steady with the MEME hype to maintain some confidence;
‑ CORE｜10X full position long, holding 5 million tokens, bought from 0.02383 until now, floating loss of -83.26%, still holding on hard waiting for the cycle to pay off;
‑ UNI｜50X full position long, similarly deeply trapped, floating loss of -427.59%, high leverage amplifies every pullback multiple times.
Many only focus on the loss numbers, but there are actually two completely different mindsets here:
✅ DOGE is a short-term emotional trial, entering quickly and ready to exit anytime;
✅ CORE is held with faith, betting not on one or two days of news, but on the delayed market wave after the ecosystem continuously matures.
But the key pitfall is here: applying the mindset of holding coins long-term directly into leveraged contracts.
Spot can afford to wait for the right moment, contracts cannot. Even if the margin looks safe now, long periods of sideways grinding and frequent spikes mean time itself is an invisible huge cost.
Now, relying on the small profit from DOGE to continuously subsidize the torment of the other two positions; holding onto the hype window on one side, while desperately waiting for the day to break even on the other.1. Bonds are sending the most concerning signals. The 10-year Treasury yield just rose to 5.35%, the highest since 2002; the 30-year yield is also around 5.66%. This is significant pressure on growth stocks and crypto. 2. Nasdaq is at a peak while the “cost of money” is rising. Nasdaq just hit a new high, Nvidia also reached a peak, but the bond market is selling off. This is a divergence worth watching: stocks are very enthusiastic but the long-term interest rate environment is not fully supportive. 3. BTC is quite sensitive to the marketTop Pitfall in Chain Scanning: Applying One Set of Screening Criteria Rigidly to All Meme Coins
① Newly Created Stage: Still in Private Trading, Always Prioritize Risk Screening
The odds look tempting at this stage, but the chance of falling into a trap is also the highest. Candlestick charts have no reference value here, so don’t bother looking.
The primary task is to screen for exit scams: Rug pull risk, bundled trading accounts, excessive insider holdings—immediately pass if any are found.
At least have reliable smart money or KOL wallets entering; if no professional funds come in, it means insiders don’t favor it.
Narrative hype is secondary; first confirm this is not a harvesting trap.
② About to Reach Full Listing Stage: Very Short Window, Compete on Capital Consensus
Public trading is about to open, and the time you get is often only a few minutes to an hour.
The focus is not on a single KOL buying in, as a single wallet can easily be a setup.
A truly effective signal: multiple independent wallets with a stable profit record simultaneously positioning, forming a capital alliance.
It’s best to cross-check wallet transaction history to judge if the funds are real.
③ Already Open Trading Stage: Don’t Chase the First Wave Pulse, Only Watch the Second Phase Support
Tokens are already publicly traded, and the first wave of price surge has mostly been cashed out.
Liquidity improves, but chasing highs is the easiest way to get trapped. Don’t chase the rapid price surge.
Key observation: after price pullback, is there new capital willing to take over? Can the trading volume hold steady?
In summary:
Newly created, prioritize risk screening;
About to reach full listing, compete on capital consensus and reaction speed;
Already open trading, avoid pulse surges, focus on pullback support strength On Tuesday the 6th, the next-day Bitcoin rebound failed to continue the bullish trend after recovering the morning's decline. After the US stock market opened, there was heavy selling pressure at high levels, with bulls and bears exchanging control. The 852 support level held firm, initiating a consolidation scenario, shifting the previous 852-830 range to 865-852.
Looking at today's market, Bitcoin's triangle pattern was broken downward, and the hourly chart shows lower highs and lower lows. It is now retesting the 852 support; as long as this support holds, it won't test the low at 84951. Despite a slow intraday decline, if the support holds, nothing significant will happen, and the price will continue to consolidate between 852 and 865. Once broken, the low will not hold, and the next support is at 843. This path would indicate a trend of lower lows, increasing the risk of market deterioration. Ideally, Bitcoin should recover back inside the triangle to end the morning's gradual decline. For those looking to go long, watch the 852 level for entry.
In summary, Bitcoin's pullback to the 852 level has not effectively broken down, so short-term longs can be considered with targets at 865 and 873. A volume-backed breakdown with a failed rebound to recover the right side for shorting points to a downside target of 843. Be sure to set stop losses! $BTC $ETH #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 # BTC巨鲸抛压减弱、ETF连续三周净流入：数据在说谎，还是你在骗自己？ 过去一周，两条消息在币圈刷屏：Glassnode宣布BTC巨鲸向交易所净存入的趋势已经停止，超过三个月的“砸盘”告一段落；美国现货比特币ETF连续第三周净流入，累计吸引约38亿美元。主流叙事迅速统一：抛压减弱，机构进场，比特币剑指十万。 但如果你把这两条消息拆开看，会发现一个令人不安的事实：数据没有说谎，但解读数据的人可能在骗你。 先看巨鲸“抛压减弱”的真相。Glassnode确实说了净流入趋势停止，但仔细看时间线——这个趋势在8月下旬就结束了，资金流此后持续为负。也就是说，这个“利好”是一个多月前就发生的事。更有意思的是，分析师Ali Martinez在10月1日指出，过去一周比特币巨鲸持仓量减少了约3万枚BTC，价值约25.2亿美元。这意味着，在“抛压减弱”的叙事传播的同时，巨鲸实际上在减持。Glassnode自己也承认，卖出压力比巨鲸更广泛：成本基础在97000美元附近的1至2年买家，以及成本在89000美元附近的6至12个月买家，都在持续抛售。这些“水下”持有者最容易在价格回升时接近盈亏平衡点退出，他们Strategy, which holds BTC, disclosed a digital asset revenue of $20.91 billion for Q3, but don't directly interpret this as selling coins and receiving $20.9 billion in cash.
This is still the company's estimate, unaudited and unreviewed. In the same October 5 announcement, there was an amount already paid out: from September 28 to October 4, $142.5 million in preferred stock dividends and debt interest were paid from the USD reserves.
As of October 4, they held 848,000 BTC, and the bill was still paid in USD. When reading news about the "revenue" of a coin-holding company, I think it's important to look at where the cash comes from and where it is spent.
Source: Strategy 8-K on October 5.
$BTC No more talk, let's get straight to the practical trade. This $OKB long position opened at 124.96, marked at 130.54, with a floating profit of 89.3%, 20x leverage. BTC tried to surge but failed and came back to consolidate, while OKB went its own way, starting near 125 and running above 130. Sometimes platform tokens behave like this—they don't follow the big coin's frenzy, but resist during drops and push during stability. There's nothing mysterious, it's just that funds seek certainty within the exchange ecosystem. I followed and added longs, profiting from that resilience phase. Now, no hype, no chasing, no adding. Holding a 20x position, the biggest fear is mistaking floating profit for skill. First, let this trade become a "non-losing trade," then think about what’s next. Only those who can steadily move forward will succeed. An interesting phenomenon is starting to appear in the Crypto market:
Old coins can tell new stories again
ZEC is the most obvious example.
A privacy coin that has existed for many years,
suddenly becomes the focus of market attention again.
At the same time,
NIGHT in the ADA ecosystem is also rapidly rising.
This shows that Crypto has a very special asset attribute:
It does not have as strict a lifecycle as traditional stocks.
When a company gets old, its valuation logic may end.
But as long as a Token finds a new narrative,
the market can completely reprice it.
What’s interesting about Crypto this time is:
Old projects can always come back.#BTC whale sell pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks
🔥$BTC whales are no longer dumping, ETFs have been pouring money in for three consecutive weeks. On the surface, this is a hardcore bullish signal confirming a "double bottom," but why does the market still look dead stagnant?
Because between "whales not selling" and "market takeoff," there is a whole macro liquidity drain machine.
The 30-year US Treasury yield is stuck stubbornly at 5.6%, and the October 15 tax season looms overhead. Large funds need to prepare cash for taxes, and off-exchange funds are being drawn away by high interest rates. The money ETFs are buying just happens to absorb the original sell pressure from whales, which is not enough to push the market to take off.
The current moves by institutions, frankly, are called "dollar-cost averaging the base position"—buy a little when it dips, but never chase the highs. Just look at how Bitcoin is lingering around 85,000; the on-exchange market is still a zero-sum game with extremely tight liquidity.
This market is all about endurance.
Hold your spot base in spot, don’t rush to add positions just because ETFs are flowing in; firmly avoid contracts during this period, as flash crashes can drive people crazy; keep some USDT on hand, wait until the tax season’s coin-selling tax payment wave completely passes. If the market really crashes deeply, that will be our golden window to enter and pick up discounted chips with blood.
Whales are lying low, institutions are slowly accumulating. Do you think Bitcoin can rely on this force to surge to 88,000 in the short term? Let’s discuss in the comments. $BTC Micron raised its guidance and storage demand is strengthening, indicating that risk appetite is spilling over from tech stocks to the crypto sector, but UNI failed to keep up today. I judge it to still be weak and oscillating in the short term. On the four-hour chart, it has retraced more than 17% from the previous high; on the one-hour chart, it is 4.35% below the high and only 2.06% above the low, so the bearish momentum is not yet over. Currently, below 8.861, 8.747 is the recent low; if this level breaks, it will open the downside space. On the upside, 9.183 is the primary resistance. The trading volume is only 11.07 million, insufficient to support the rebound, so the bounce lacks strength. The funding rate is 0.0094% but accompanied by a price decline, meaning bulls are still passively holding positions. The open interest of 5.741 million coin-margined contracts shows selling pressure has not been fully released. However, the top ten order book bids are 10,000 versus 8,233 asks, with bids slightly dominant, indicating short-term support. Strategy-wise, lightly short near 9.05 with a stop loss at 9.22 and a target of 8.68; if it pulls back to 8.75 and stabilizes, go short-term long with a stop loss at 8.61 and a target of 8.95. Keep position size under 20%, exit immediately if the level breaks.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$UNI#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 $UNI 10.6 BTC Today Silk Road
$BTC has rebounded and recovered after this dip, currently consolidating around 855.
On the hourly chart, the price pulled back to the 850 low before bouncing up; the short-term MA7 moving average provides support, but the MA25 moving average above at around 857 acts as the first short-term resistance.
The market is now in a tug-of-war phase after a low-level rebound. The bulls have temporarily stabilized the market, but the rebound volume has not continued to expand, so the momentum to push higher is insufficient. Don't rush to chase the bulls just because of the rebound; this round is more of a corrective consolidation after a decline, not a reversal to strength.
Trading strategy:
Layout positions in the 855–860 range on the rebound, target 865, first goal 852, if broken look to 844.
But be aware, the moving average resistance above remains; this rise is just a pause after the decline. The easiest pitfall in a choppy market is blindly chasing orders.
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 #美债长端收益率再创新高，30年期逼近5.7% Earnings Observer: Micron raises guidance, storage demand continues to strengthen, which directly benefits the sector where SKHYNIX operates, but my overall judgment is that the positive impact has already been priced in, so it is not advisable to chase the rally currently.
Down 3.5% in 24 hours to 1330.7, with a turnover of only 46,000. The 1-hour and 4-hour trends are both downward, still 5.68% below the 4-hour high, with weak rebound; funding rate at 0.1031% is relatively high, longs are crowded, open interest at 34,000 indicates leverage positions have not yet been cleared, buy orders at 218 slightly outweigh sell orders at 207 but cannot withstand selling pressure. 1320.2 is today's low; if broken, look for 1305.3.
Discipline first: light short positions at rebound to 1348.5, stop loss at 1361.2, target 1298.7; if volume increases and stabilizes above 1372.4, reverse to long, stop loss at 1358.9, target 1402.6. Single position size not exceeding 5%, exit unconditionally if stop loss is hit.
— For personal reference only, not investment advice, wishing you successful trading. —
$SKHYNIX#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强
#财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 $SKHYNIX #SpaceX stock price rebounds, hitting a new high since July# Risk appetite warming drives crypto sentiment, but BSB's trend is clearly disconnected, and I remain cautious on the mid-term.
The contradiction is very obvious: 1-hour level is rising, 6.51% above the low, while the 4-hour level is falling, 11.36% below the high. Current price is 0.101, down 2.9% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of only 568,000, order book top 10 buy/sell ratio at 0.25, heavy selling pressure. Funding rate at 0.0089% is relatively low, with open interest at 11.918 million, bullish sentiment is not enthusiastic.
Short-term can lightly speculate on a rebound: buy on pullback to 0.09985, stop loss at 0.09672, target 0.10583. For mid-term, wait for resistance near 0.10624 to try short, stop loss at 0.10938, target 0.09715. Single position no more than 5%, exit immediately if broken.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you smooth trading. —
$BSB#SpaceX stock price rebounds, hitting a new high since July
#SpaceX stock price rebounds, hitting a new high since July $BSB Yesterday there were three setups: one was immediately pierced after opening, one was only realized today after grinding,
Now the short-term bandwidth is compressed again to less than 20 points, with three lines pressing between 2708 and 2710. Volume has shrunk to only one-sixth of usual, bulls hold positions, but the price just can't rise.
In this narrow-range oscillation, wait for volume to return before discussing direction.
🧭 Key levels
· Main battlefield: 2700±10
· Resistance: 2720, 2747
· Support: 2682, 2660
🎯 Intraday operation reference
Pullback buy
· Entry: near 2690 bottoming
· Stop loss: 2682
· Target: 2706 → 2710
Rebound short
· Entry: around 2720 stagnation
· Stop loss: 2733
· Target: 2700 → 2692
Breakdown follow (aggressive)
· Entry: lose 2692 and don’t recover
· Stop loss: 2702
· Target: 2660 → 2654
At this narrow range, usually one side breaks first. Follow whichever side moves first.
Watch 2690 closely. If it holds, hold out until above 2710; if lost, test 2682.
$ETH #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
⚠️The above content is personal opinion only and does not constitute investment advice.
Be flexible with key levels, control position size, take profits and stop losses timely, and pay attention to data timeliness. $CP You can tell from my funding fees; anyway, I've already been running at break-even 0.1265, and now looking at it, haha. This is the funding fee, holding for 4 days lost 120 USD... Even if it stays sideways for a month, it would cost several hundred dollars. Actually, this kind of altcoin is stable and is a favorite of big capital. They first open short positions, then buy spot, earning annualized yield.#BTC whale selling pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks, risk appetite is warming but has not transmitted to CL, funds are abandoning stagnant rising varieties. My judgment is weak oscillation and lack of rebound strength. The hourly chart fell 4.40% breaking support, the four-hour chart retreated 9.38% from the high point, both short and long cycles are moving downward. The 24h dropped 1.4% to 88.3, with heavy selling pressure above 91.26; turnover is only 15,004,000, funding rate is zero, and open interest is 458,000 showing bulls are unwilling to pay fees, sentiment is cold. But the top 10 order book shows 74,000 bids against 56,000 asks, bid-ask ratio 1.32, there is support at low levels, and the cost-effectiveness of short covering declines. The divergence is "can't fall but also can't rise." Strategy one: lightly go long at 88.35, stop loss at 87.62, target 89.86, exit if broken; strategy two: short if rebound is resisted near 90.15, stop loss 90.88, target 88.55. Total position controlled within 20%, stop loss not moved.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice, wish you smooth trading. —
$CL#BTC whale selling pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks
#BTC whale selling pressure weakens, ETF funds have net inflows for three consecutive weeks $CL $BTC daily. Stuck in a tight range between 85,225 and 81,302.
Resistance: 85,225. Break above → 90,592 → 97,932.
Support: 81,302. Lose it → 76,212.
I'm waiting for the breakout. Who's buying this range, and who's waiting for the flush?
Not a signal. Manage your risk.
#BTC87KCryptoCap3T $LIT
Despite the strong surge in LIT, it is still some distance from the peak; is the profit-taking worth watching?
Today's early spot 24-hour observation window: range 3.63—4.1425 USDT, change +9.72%, trading volume approximately 21.08 million USDT.
The window's increase is close to 10%, but the observed quotes did not stick to the highest price. Early buyers' profits and high-level buyers' pullbacks can coexist; the overall increase cannot replace the experience of all participants.
If the pullback quickly erases the gains, the momentum explanation weakens; if after adjustment it maintains a higher low and retests the upper boundary with reduced selling pressure, I will raise my judgment on continuation.$MMT I was about to go to the forum to rant, but then I checked my balance and decided against it; the market is always right.
During the intraday plunge, when everyone else was running, I placed a short at 0.1891. The reason was simple: insufficient support, weak rebound, every rally lacked strength. With this kind of structure, a drop was just a matter of time.
MMT went from 0.1891 to 0.1782, +116.34% steadily landing in my account. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly satisfying.
Don’t lose patience in the volatility and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided market.
Here’s a quick note on the operation: first take profit on 80%, then move the stop loss for the remaining 20% to the break-even point; if it continues to fall, let the profits run. Take profit when you should.
If you missed it, don’t chase; wait for a new structure to emerge. The market isn’t short on opportunities, it’s short on patience.
$ETH $ADA Middle East energy shipping risks are heating up, with two key straits disrupted, risk aversion sentiment spilling over to suppress the crypto market, and MMT following the pullback. I judge the short-term bias as bearish, but the 4-hour level has not yet broken, indicating a high-level shakeout rather than a trend reversal.
From the capital perspective, the current price is 0.1781, down 5.8% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of 742,000 and a funding rate of only 0.0050%, showing a clear cooling of bullish sentiment. The 1-hour chart is declining but only 0.39% above the low, with support at 0.1748; the 4-hour chart is still rising, 13.95% above the low, and the open interest of 8.43 million coin-margined contracts indicates shorts have not significantly increased positions. The order book buy-sell ratio is 1.00, with both sides locked in a stalemate; 0.1835 is short-term resistance.
Strategically, lightly short on a rebound to 0.1823, stop loss at 0.1857, target 0.1746; if it pulls back and stabilizes at 0.1749, consider reversing to a short-term long, stop loss at 0.1723, target 0.1802. Position size controlled within 20%, strictly exit on break.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$MMT#中东能源航运风险升温，两大关键海峡受扰
#中东能源航运风险升温，两大关键海峡受扰 $MMT After the rise, what matters is whether it can hold.
When the market warms up, the biggest fear is mistaking a pulse for a trend. $SUI is around 1.19, with about a 50% increase this month and about 4.5% this week. The numbers look good, but 1.20 is the key observation point: first see if it can reclaim that level, then see if the pullback can hold. Just touching it once doesn't count. If it can't even hold here, the short-term trend should be considered weak; no matter how big the monthly gain is, it can't replace the current buying momentum.
$ENA rebounded over 4% in 24 hours, but the weekly chart still shows a slight drop of about 0.6%, so the recovery is not yet complete. What it lacks is not a reason to rise, but follow-up buying. Sentiment can push the first wave, but sustained buying is needed to push the second wave. If it gives back gains at the slightest pullback, the quality of this rebound will be discounted.
$DOGE returned to around 0.0947, about 5% away from 0.10. Round number levels always excite people prematurely, but the market has no obligation to hit them exactly. First, see if the upward momentum can continue; don't mistake a pleasing number for a guaranteed target.
The excitement belongs to intraday trading; holding the level belongs to after-hours. The rebound can be watched, but more attention should be paid to who is buying on the pullback.
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 Middle East energy shipping risks are heating up, with two key straits disrupted, risk-off sentiment suppressing risk assets, $SNDK weakening along with the broader market. I judge the short-term bias as bearish but approaching oversold territory. The price has fallen back from the 1743.4 high, with 1-hour and 4-hour moving averages both trending down; it has dropped 10.46% from the 4-hour high. The 1682.5 low is the last line of defense, with rebound resistance at 1721.6. The buy-sell ratio is 0.98, slightly favoring sellers; the funding rate of 0.0141% remains positive, indicating bulls have not significantly withdrawn. Open interest at 51,000 shows limited divergence. Operationally, one can lightly short at 1697.3 with a stop loss at 1712.8 and a target of 1671.4; if it pulls back to 1668.3 and stabilizes, one can reverse to a short-term long with a stop loss at 1655.9 and a target of 1704.6, with single position size not exceeding 5%.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you smooth trading.——
$SNDK#中东能源航运风险升温，两大关键海峡受扰
#中东能源航运风险升温，两大关键海峡受扰 $SNDK $XRP's current market rally is a typical pulse surge driven by positive expectations. The market continuously speculates on related compliance and ETF rumors, spreading a large amount of bullish sentiment. Short-term funds have concentrated entry, pushing the price steadily upward. According to market data, this rally is mainly driven by short-term speculative funds rather than long-term capital deployment, and the momentum weakens after incremental funds take over.
The overall trend can be divided into three phases: expectation-driven surge, high-level oscillation with stagnation, and cooling off with a decline in expectations. The characteristic of this news-driven market is strong upward explosive power but weak sustainability. Market turning points often occur when bullish sentiment is at its peak. The essence of news-driven market moves is capital speculation; once expectations are fully priced in, the market tends to reverse with large volatility. 【Old Leek Observation】 $SUI
🔥 SUI has a major catalyst tomorrow: an on-site attempt to break the 6 million+ TPS record. The Sui Basecamp kicks off tomorrow in Singapore.
The most worth-watching event isn't the regular conference, but Mysten Labs' live challenge to Sui's TPS record. The current record is 6,086,766 TPS, and they plan to break it again tomorrow.
At the same time, the main themes of this conference are clear:
AI Agent + Automated Payments + Stablecoins + RWA
Also, on October 1st, Sui joined the Linux Foundation Decentralized Trust to participate in setting open standards for tokenized assets.
SUI is still around $1.20, without any exaggerated pre-pump.
Entry: $1.18–$1.22
Take Profit: $1.27 / $1.34 / $1.42 / $1.52 / $1.65
Stop Loss: $1.12
If the TPS test and conference content exceed expectations tomorrow, $1.27 will be the first resistance level. If it spikes directly, do not chase; wait for a pullback to buy again.