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Day 4 of being out of the market. $114 million in short positions were liquidated, and I didn’t chase a single one.
First, let’s talk about the most counterintuitive number today: $140 million liquidated across the entire network in 24 hours, with shorts accounting for $114 million, or 81%.
Yesterday, it was longs liquidated for $306 million. In 48 hours, the liquidation structure flipped twice. Bulls just got shaken out, now the bears are getting shaken out — this isn’t a trend, it’s leverage mutually destroying each other.
The largest single liquidation further illustrates the issue: Binance’s ETHUSDT, $5.63 million. The hardest hit isn’t Bitcoin, it’s Ethereum.
Looking at volume and price: OKX reports 24h trading volume of 53.994 billion, up 20.11%; total network volume 109.6 billion, up 30.54%; open interest rose to 154.4 billion, up 3.24%.
Increased volume, added positions, and rising prices look healthy. But BTC ETFs have still seen a net outflow of $258 million in the last 30 days. No spot money is coming in; the rise is all leverage. This is a short squeeze, not a reversal.
Another signal not to ignore: SOL fell 0.13% against the trend today. Real rallies spread; this one hasn’t.
ZEC also deserves a mention. Grayscale’s Zcash ETF saw a net outflow of $93.6 million last week — the first weekly outflow since listing. ZEC dropped from 1,690 to 1,300, then rebounded to 1,346 today — the rise is a rebound from oversold conditions, not a new story.
The macro fuel is ready: September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000; the probability of a rate hike in October dropped to 13.8%; 10Y US Treasury yield at 5.277%. But before the November 3 midterm elections, liquidity will only get thinner and volatility higher.
My judgment is straightforward: chasing longs above 86,000 is just buying for yesterday’s shorts. Let’s first see if 84,770 holds; if it breaks, it’s a fake breakout.
Day 4 out of the market, I’m still waiting. Have you added positions above 86,000?
#BTC #ETH #SOL #ZEC #MarketAnalysis
$BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute any investment advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile; please control your position size and bear your own risk.No vision, can't hold on, the profit this time is as thin as paper, but I love it to death. When others are running away, I see $ETH funds quietly entering the market. The repeated test at 2,680.46 didn't break down, so I judged this as the final shakeout and went long directly.
Sure enough, 2,733.78 came out, pocketing +198.92%, it was worth the wait. The rhythm this time was just right; from bottoming out to starting up, those who held on throughout are winners, while those who got off midway probably have bruised egos.
You need a strategy before the market opens, discipline during trading, and reflection afterward. The money you make is the realization of your understanding; the money you lose is the flaw in your understanding. This saying is very practical in contracts.
Take profits when you should, reduce your position by 75%, keep the remaining 25% at cost price for protection, let profits run as much as possible, but don't let unrealized gains turn into losses. Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leads to standing idle. Wait for the next shot, the opportunity is still there, no need to be impatient.
$DOGE $SNDK #贝森特：The rise in US Treasury yields aligns with the global trend
This statement from Bassett might be more noteworthy than just the simple rise in US Treasury yields.
On October 5th, US Treasury Secretary Bassett said that the rise in US Treasury yields aligns with the global trend.
On the surface, it seems like just a statement about the bond market, but for the crypto market, the core impact is liquidity.
US Treasury yields rise → US dollar assets become more attractive → global funding costs increase → risk asset valuations come under pressure → high-volatility assets like BTC face short-term pressure.
Especially now that the US Dollar Index has surpassed 102, if US Treasury yields and the dollar continue to strengthen in sync, the suppression on BTC will be more obvious.
But this should not be simply understood as "yields rise, BTC must fall." If the yield increase mainly comes from economic resilience rather than uncontrolled inflation, the stock and crypto markets may not weaken immediately.
My judgment is that, in the short term, what really needs to be watched is whether US Treasury yields and the dollar can resonate and rise together.
If the 10Y US Treasury yield continues to rise, the US Dollar Index remains strong, and BTC capital flow starts to weaken, then BTC's rebound potential will be significantly limited; conversely, if yields spike then fall back and the dollar weakens, risk assets are more likely to regain liquidity support.
Next, focus on: 10Y US Treasury yield, US Dollar Index, BTC spot capital flow.
These three variables might be more important than simply looking at the candlestick charts.From the current position, 82,500 is still about 5% away. Considering that BTC has already risen 2.33% in the past 24 hours, this support level seems somewhat distant, which has led the market to develop an expectation of "rise first, then fall" in advance. He believes that the selling pressure near 87,000 may come from whales taking profits, and points out that whale holdings have decreased by about 30,000 BTC in the past week, which is worth approximately 2.52 billion USD at the current price. This number is indeed significant, but in the context of the entire circulating supply of BTC, the proportion is actually limited. Therefore, using this data alone to explain the resistance near 87,000 is logically somewhat insufficient. On-chain data can tell us that the BTC balance of large addresses has indeed decreased, but whether these coins were sold, transferred to exchanges, or moved to other wallets cannot be directly determined from balance changes alone. So, equating "whale balance decrease" directly with "whales are profit-taking sales" still lacks a layer of confirmation. Currently, I am more focused on two follow-up scenarios: ① If BTC can retake 87,000 and further stabilize, then the current selling pressure is more likely just short-term noise, and the market structure has not been broken. ② If BTC subsequently really retests 82,500, and whale holdings still do not show a significant rebound, then 82,500 is worth close attention to see if it can become a new support area. At this stage, rather than prematurely predicting a top,The on-chain divergence among the three tokens WLD, CT, and SAND is very obvious. $WLD whales have a nominal long-short ratio of 404.15%, with 202 whales holding long positions. The average long entry is 0.5021, most are in floating profit, while shorts are generally trapped. The candlestick stands firm above the short-term moving average, showing a strong oscillation. $CT whales have a long-short ratio of 130.09%, with more longs but most are at a loss. The chip distribution is very divergent. As a newly listed token, its market fluctuates violently, trading volume is gradually shrinking, and uncertainty is very high. $SAND data is the opposite, with whales holding more short positions. Among 156 shorts, most are profitable. After a surge, it has pulled back, closing with a bearish daily candle, showing short-term selling pressure.
From the candlestick perspective, WLD is in a pullback consolidation phase, more suitable for buying on dips; CT’s new token chips have not settled, only suitable for small position speculation; SAND surged then pulled back, so caution is advised in the short term. Overall subjective view: WLD leans bullish, CT remains on the sidelines, SAND leans bearish.
WLD attack level 0.6020, defense level 0.5610
CT attack level 0.5110, defense level 0.4620
SAND attack level 0.0772, defense level 0.0701BTC 震荡走强。周末两日回落震荡后，昨夜 BTC 再度向上发起进攻，目前已经来到 8.65 前高附近。短期重点关注能否突破 8.73 的前高阻力，并刷新本轮反弹新高。 经过约两周的高位震荡，BTC 通过“时间换空间”的方式不断消化高点带来的压力。如果后续能够继续向上突破，需要重点观察突破后的上涨力度。如果只是缓慢上涨，市场仍可能再次出现高点预警信号。 另外，继续关注前期热门品种 ZEC、HYPE、NEAR 等能否跟随上涨。如果这些品种能够形成普涨，市场可能迎来新一轮行情。目前 ADA 涨幅相对领先。 更多分析请关注本周一中午的周报，关注不迷路#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $ADA $SNDK Dizi's short-term support is at 1695-1700, 1675-1680, 1640-1650. It is currently experiencing a narrowing decline with fluctuations. At the current position, the short-term risk-reward ratio is not very favorable, so it is better to wait a bit longer. Building positions for the mid-to-long term is okay.#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $103 million on October 1, following a previous nine consecutive trading days of net inflows totaling about $3.1 billion that ended on September 30. On October 2, it saw another net inflow of about $31.7 million, marking two consecutive trading days of resumed net inflows. In contrast, the Ethereum spot ETF has experienced net outflows for four consecutive trading days since September 29, with a net outflow of about $17.3 million on October 2, totaling approximately $135 million over the four days. Previously, BTC and ETH saw synchronized capital inflows followed by synchronized outflows, but this capital flow trend has diverged again.Why I strongly advise against setting stop-loss orders frequently. People tend to set them impulsively. Here are my reasons.
1. I believe humans actually have two judgment systems. One is the logical thinking and analysis system we pride ourselves on. The other is a mysterious subconscious system.
2. Why do I advise against frequent stop-loss settings? Because doing so constantly keeps you in your comfort zone. It keeps telling your subconscious, "It's okay to make mistakes this time. I have a stop-loss, so the loss won't be big. At worst, I can C2C."
3. When the subconscious keeps hearing "It's okay to be wrong this time," its heightened sensitivity to dangerous market conditions gets suppressed. Yes, it's heightened sensitivity. Because it no longer needs to step up and act, since the owner has an automatic stop-loss. This sensitivity gets worn down through repeated stop-loss triggers. Even worse, the heightened sensitivity can be completely suppressed.
4. Speaking of heightened sensitivity, the subconscious is a mysterious thing that can't be proven. So why mention it? Mainly because the logical judgment and market analysis we usually rely on are not trustworthy. The main reason is that the market information we receive is incomplete and fragmented. Sometimes the information we see is deliberately released by certain capital players to mislead us. It's very deceptive. So inevitably, we need to seek a high-sensitivity system.
5. Therefore, try to train your feelings beyond logical judgment. Don't impulsively C2C. First big event: On Friday, the SEC officially approved the Chicago Board Options Exchange to list the first batch of 3x leveraged cryptocurrency ETPs, covering Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas. Although they cannot be publicly traded immediately and still need to go through the registration process, the direction is very clear — regulators are opening new channels for institutional funds.
Second: Crypto funds saw a net inflow of $3.55 billion in a single week, setting the largest weekly inflow record in 2026, with funds mainly flowing into Bitcoin. This is not retail chasing; it is large capital systematically allocating.
Third: A Bitcoin address dormant for 13.1 years has been activated, holding 801 BTC worth $68.29 million. For 13 years, this person has held since Bitcoin was under $100, and now that they are awake, will they sell or continue to hold?
The major resistance at 86,557 for Bitcoin has been broken through the 85,000 to 86,000 selling pressure barrier. Uptober is not just a slogan; real money is flowing in.
#BTC #ETH #SEC #Uptober #cryptocurrency Besent said that the rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with a global trend. What he means is that this round of changes cannot be attributed solely to the U.S.; bonds in other countries are also being repriced.
This explanation makes sense, but after hearing it, I don't feel that financing pressure has eased.
If only U.S. interest rates were rising, companies and investors could at least compare financing conditions with other markets. Now that long-term rates are rising in many places simultaneously, finding cheaper alternative funding may also become more difficult. For those needing long-term loans, "everyone is more expensive" is hardly a consolation.
Fiscal officials worry about whether the U.S. is being singled out by the market, but corporate financial officers are concerned about the cost at which the next debt issuance can be made. These two issues can coexist; there is no need to choose one to negate the other.
In the crypto market, high interest rates may not immediately suppress BTC, but they will change the conditions under which capital is willing to take risks. Project financing, listed companies issuing bonds to buy coins, and investors' valuations of future cash flows all cannot avoid this cost.
I do not accept interpreting "global trend" as "nothing to worry about." It can explain the background of the rise but will not reduce interest for any borrower. What is more worth following up on is which institutions still have financing room and which have already begun to cut back on investment.
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Seeing BTC ETF inflows resume and ETH ETF outflows continue, some immediately conclude: institutions are selling ETH and buying BTC.
This explanation sounds plausible, but the fund flow statements do not tell us who redeemed ETH and who subscribed to BTC. The two sides may belong to different investors, different product arrangements, or even different risk budgets. Opposite directions cannot be directly combined into a single swap transaction.
According to the fully disclosed data from Farside on October 1, BTC spot ETF net inflows were about $102.7 million, and ETH net outflows were about $55.4 million. The divergence indeed exists, but the underlying buying and selling motives require more evidence.
My expectations for ETH cannot be supported by "BTC has risen, so it should be its turn." Catch-up gains are a trading hypothesis, not a promise someone must fulfill for you. ETH needs its own reasons to gain new allocations and cannot keep proving itself by borrowing BTC's capital heat.
Conversely, BTC subscriptions do not mean every holder is betting on a short-term surge. Some may just be adjusting portfolio proportions, and after buying, neither chase the rally nor participate in altcoin rotations.
This round of fund divergence deserves serious attention. What I dislike is that a few lines of subscription and redemption data end up being interpreted as a definite institutional psychological activity.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 This week, when looking at the central bank meeting minutes, what I fear most is someone taking the phrase "inflation risks remain elevated" out of context and then the whole screen starts shouting that the next rate hike is certain. The minutes record discussions from several weeks ago, reflecting the information officials had at that time, which is not exactly the same as today.
The Federal Reserve usually releases the minutes three weeks after the decision, and the European Central Bank will release its meeting accounts on October 8. During this period, new employment data, energy prices, and market interest rates may all change the assessment. Taking the most hawkish sentence from an old meeting out of context can easily lead to misjudging the timeline.
I am more concerned about what conditions the officials set for themselves at that time: how weak does employment have to be for them to reconsider tightening? Is the rise in energy prices seen as a short-term shock or something that might spread to other prices? These conditions are much more useful than the labels "hawkish" or "dovish."
Also, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, facing the same round of energy disruptions, do not have to take the same path. Their respective demand, employment, and financing environments differ, so mechanically applying conclusions is too simplistic.
The minutes are worth reading, but there is no need to rush to comment on the first breaking news. First, align the dates of the discussions with the dates of new data, then judge which views are still valid.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 ETH current price is 2733, with a high touching 2740. I'm watching the OKX order book; this asset is quite resilient today. A few days ago, it was stuck around 2650, but today it directly broke above 2700. ETH has finally had a moment to shine.
I glanced at the order book; buying and selling are quite active in the 2720-2730 range, but the selling pressure has been completely absorbed, so the price is holding firm. Volume has clearly increased compared to a few days ago, with funds tilting towards ETH. BTC is hovering around 86400, while ETH is making its own moves—this divergence is interesting. However, 2740-2750 is a barrier; if it breaks through without volume, it can be pulled back anytime. Don't chase just because it's near the high.
Key levels for $ETH:
Support: 2700-2720, as long as it doesn't break on a pullback, it's still strong; if it breaks, watch 2680.
Resistance: 2740-2750, only with volume to break through can we look at 2800-2850; if it can't hold, expect a pullback.
My strategy: If it pulls back near 2700 with shrinking volume and stops falling, I'll lightly buy in with a stop loss below 2670; if it directly rushes to 2750 without volume, I'll reduce some short-term positions to take profits. ETH is stronger than BTC this round, but it's been cautious lately. I'm not in a hurry to believe it can independently strengthen; I'll wait to see if it can hold above 2740 first.$BTC price is slowly rising, but the volume is insufficient. Last night, late at night, Bitcoin price broke through 86900, but the trading volume for the whole day was not high!
Although we are currently in a bull market, when it comes to trading volume, it doesn't look like a bull market at all.
The monthly trading volume has sharply declined since April this year. Although the price has risen now, the trading volume is still not ideal!
This indicates that the liquidity of this bull market is not very good.
It is even worse than the trading volume during the bear market!
Institutional big players are locking up and holding chips, waiting for other institutions to push the price up. The current price is mainly dominated by ETFs and treasury companies focused on strategic intentions; others are mostly just riding along.
The higher the price goes, the greater the risk for institutions and ETFs entering later, because there is a possibility of short-term holding the bag.
From previous trends where negative news caused price increases and positive news caused price drops, the news no longer holds the pricing power for Bitcoin.
The current pricing power lies in the capital. If the capital cannot increase sufficiently, it will be difficult to support the pressure from the unlocking of trapped positions above!
According to relevant statistics, a large number of investors are looking for break-even points above 88000, and unlocking is imminent!
Therefore, there is a risk of a short-term pullback.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 10.5 Gold Ramblings:
Yellowfish's head volume stabilizes above 4100, with the hourly level strongly breaking through the upper Bollinger Band, indicating a short-term slightly strong oscillation. The short-term shows a slightly bullish oscillation with overbought indicators. The MACD golden cross and price breaking above the upper band indicate bulls are dominant. If there is no major positive news to continue pushing, the price may oscillate at a high level near 4160 or pull back to the middle band to confirm support; if news resonates, it is expected to challenge 4200.
Bulls: Pay attention to the opportunity to stabilize on a pullback in the 4148-4150 area. With favorable news, you can lightly go long, with a stop loss reference below 4138.
Bears: If the price stagnates above 4160 and the news is quiet, beware of a short-term overbought correction; avoid blindly chasing highs.
The above is personal sharing and does not constitute any investment advice.
In important matters, strive to be a genius; in unimportant matters, be content to be lazy! $XAUT
##美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 The testnet has moved first, how far can the mainnet be?
$ZEC's NU7 upgrade has just been activated on the testnet at block height 4465026.
Here’s my judgment: this news has no direct impact on the price, but it is a positive factor for sentiment.
What does testnet activation mean? Simply put, new features run first in a risk-free environment, and only after successful testing will they be deployed on the mainnet.
What’s really worth watching is when the mainnet will catch up. That’s when the funds will be willing to tell the story.
At this stage, don’t rush just because you see the word "upgrade." There are who knows how many patches between the testnet and mainnet.
To be honest, $ZEC has already been somewhat active recently; this kind of news is like adding fuel to the fire, not the match that lights it.
My stance: somewhat positive, but not chasing. Wait until the mainnet schedule is announced.
The plain truth is, testnet activation is for developers to see, not for the market to react to.
#ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 $ZEC #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
On October 1st, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $103 million, reversing the previous day's outflow of $149 million; in contrast, the ETH ETF continued to experience an outflow of $55.4 million that day.
ETH was not without funds previously, having recorded an inflow of $690 million last week, but then faced three consecutive days of capital flight, with a cumulative outflow of $118 million from September 29 to October 1.
This clearly shows a divergence in capital flows: funds are returning to BTC, while ETH has not kept pace.
It's not that funds have completely abandoned ETH; amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, institutions prioritize BTC for its stronger consensus and better liquidity as a hedge.
Going forward, the focus should not be on single-day inflow numbers, but on one core observation: when will BTC's capital return transmit to ETH?
If BTC continues to attract funds while ETH ETFs keep seeing outflows, capital will keep clustering around BTC; only when ETH funds turn positive again will it indicate a broad market risk appetite.
In summary: BTC funds have already returned, while ETH is still waiting for capital to come back.
$BTC The HYPE long position opened at $38.68 has a floating profit of about $71.13 million as of today.
Onchain Lens tracked that SMARTESTMONEY (0x082e…ca88) on Hyperliquid holds about 1.38 million HYPE longs with 5x leverage, with a position value of approximately $125 million. The opening price was about $38.68, and at the time of writing, OKX HYPE is around 91, more than doubling the price.
This position wasn’t taken lightly: funding fees paid are about $6.3 million, with historical cumulative profits of about $63.22 million. The liquidation price is about $76.34, roughly 16% away from the current price. (Data from ChainCatcher)
Floating profit ≠ realized profit; single account snapshots can change at any time. Not investment advice. $HYPE 🔓 Major Token Unlocks to Watch | Oct. 5–11
Several major token unlocks are scheduled for this week, potentially adding selling pressure and increasing volatility across the crypto market. 👀
📅 Key Unlock Schedule:
🔹 $ENA (Oct. 5): 172M tokens (~1.88%), worth $41M
🔹 $HYPE (Oct. 6): 3.75M tokens (~1.69%), worth $339M
🔹 $MOVE (Oct. 9): 165M tokens (~3.8%), worth $1.7M
🔹 $BABY (Oct. 10): 136M tokens (~4.6%), worth $1.8M
#DailyOrbit $NEAR is close to resistance, what evidence is most lacking for a breakout
$NEAR is up 2.44% in 24 hours, currently priced at 4.951, only 2.00% away from the 1-hour resistance at 5.05. This kind of position often creates an illusion: a brief intraday break above is mistaken for a completed breakout. The truly meaningful answer is whether it can hold above after breaking through.
Putting emotions aside, the information given by the structure is very specific. The 1-hour EMA20 is at 4.8966, currently bullish; the 4-hour EMA20 is at 4.861, also bullish. The short-term cycle exposes changes, the long-term cycle limits imagination. When both align, beware of overcrowding; when they conflict, beware of whipsaws. You cannot just pick the side that favors you.
Position is more honest than adjectives. The current price is about 4.24% above the 1-hour support at 4.741 and about 2.00% below the resistance at 5.05. Putting these two distances together reveals which side requires more evidence. Looking only at the price change can easily mistake the space already traveled as space yet to begin.Starting with a chart, the following content is purely my own speculation 😂
Bitcoin has been grinding for two days straight, then suddenly started to lift this morning, but altcoins didn't follow at all.
Is Bitcoin preparing for a "sudden attack"?
In the past two days, Bitcoin kept oscillating back and forth, and I was wondering why I never thought about doing ultra-short-term trades with such big intraday volatility before.
But truly changing trading strategies isn't that easy.
Although it seems like there's been a lot of volatility these days, the market has been dragging on slowly, making it hard to catch the rhythm for ultra-short trades.
In the end, it's still a battle with myself.
Watching the market consumes time and energy, yet I didn't seize a single good entry point.
But precisely because of this recent struggle, I think I finally understand:
Why my wallet hasn't been completely drained by the market recently.
At least I haven't rushed recklessly or chased orders crazily, which helped preserve some principal and rhythm.
No matter how the market tosses and turns, first protect the floating profits left from last month's contracts.
And finally, the same old saying:
The actual profits in your wallet are the true report card of your trading.$ZEC On Sunday, 10/04, sharing my personal real P&L report! 🫡 I never hide or cover up wins or losses. Although my 【real trading】 overall record is painfully bad, being honest and transparent is more important than skill! 📅 First Sunday of October: Lost 64u, mainly because ZEC rebounded and rose, BTC and ETH also rose slightly, $PUMP even more excessive, surging 12%. 💀 July positions, I've been holding hard: Main heavy position 【SHORT】 held for 44+2 days... 📊 First 4 days of Oct: P&L, 2 winsOUSD, this new stablecoin, has launched on Solana with a $1 billion liquidity commitment, but don't attribute all of it to this chain's account just yet.
The five founding companies have committed to overall liquidity. According to the official mint sampling at 10:01 on October 5, Solana holds about 68.01 million tokens; the Bridge reserve page updated at 9:50 shows a total on-chain issuance of approximately 666 million tokens.
The issuance volume is not liquidity that can be traded at any time, nor does it equal the money used to buy SOL. Visa and Mastercard have joined, so the lineup is indeed impressive; I am more interested in seeing how much payment is actually settled on Solana.
Source: Solana Foundation announcement on September 30, Bridge reserve page; all times are Beijing time.
$SOL The meeting minutes can roughly focus on three scenarios to see who is most sensitive to the news👇 🟢 Dovish bias: More concerned about employment, signaling a pause in rate hikes BTC has a chance to test from around 85.2K to 86K; ETH may be more resilient, focusing on the 2,740→2,807 range. Although ZEC might also rise, European AML and privacy coin regulatory expectations may still suppress its valuation. If ZEC cannot firmly hold 1,530, even a short-term rebound would seem like a "false strength," making it hard to outperform ETH. 🔴 Hawkish bias: Inflation remains stubborn, rate hike expectations reheat BTC may fall back to around 83.8K or even 82.8K; ETH, as a high Beta asset, usually experiences more pronounced volatility than BTC. ZEC could face the most pressure: on one side, macro liquidity tightening; on the other, privacy coin regulatory expectations—these two factors combined. If 1,476 is breached, the downside could extend to around 1,420, with a drop potentially much larger than mainstream coins. ⚪ Neutral: Basically repeats previous statements, no new information BTC may continue to fluctuate around 84.5K, ETH oscillates between 2,650–2,700, and ZEC may range between 1,480–1,530, clearing high-leverage positions. Currently: BTC focuses on the 10-year US Treasury yield; ETH focuses on BTC sentiment and capital flow; ZEC needs to watch both the "Federal Reserve + European regulation" lines simultaneously. Sensitivity ranking for tonightBTC broke through $86,000, with concentrated short covering driving a market rebound, but funds still clearly favored BTC and a few major mainstream coins. Currently, the market is better defined as: BTC-led risk appetite recovery rather than a full-blown altcoin rally. 📊 BTC breaks through $86,000, market sentiment heats up again As of 09:43 HKT: BTC: $86,706, 24h +2.30% ETH: $2,724.65, 24h +1.23% SOL: $121.05, 24h +0.89% Total crypto market cap: about $2.926 trillion BTC market share: 59.38% Fear and Greed Index: 70, Greed previous value 65. The biggest change today was: BTC broke through $86,000 again, driving up ETH and SOL. However, BTC's gains were significantly higher than ETH and SOL, and BTC's market share further increased to 59.38%. This indicates that although the market is rebounding, new risk appetite is primarily concentrated in BTC. Altcoins have already seen some spread. ADA rose in the past 24 hours: +8.04%, DOGE: about +3.66%, XRP: about +2.26%. All three outperformed SOL. This indicates that funds have started rotating from BTC to some large altcoins, but the current spread is still limited. So it cannot yet be defined as: Altseason. A more accurate structure is: BTC leads the gains → largeIs buying BTC in October really easy to make money? This time, will the "October market" regain its momentum?
Every October, discussions about "BTC's October rally month" heat up again in the market.
Some have analyzed the performance of October over the past 13 years, finding that BTC closed higher 10 times, with a median monthly gain of 12.73%. However, in October 2025, BTC actually dropped by 3.69%, breaking the streak of consecutive gains since 2018.
Looking at historical data alone, October is indeed a notably strong month.
But the problem is, frequent past gains don’t guarantee a rise this year.
The market never has a guaranteed script; black swan events and sudden market moves can happen anytime.
Also, don’t simply interpret "average October gains" as:
Buy at the start of the month → price keeps rising → profit by month-end.
Reality is often more complicated. Even if the monthly close is up, there can be significant drawdowns along the way. If you buy at a bad entry point, your account could remain in a floating loss for a long time.
So, historical data can be used for reference and study, but not directly to calculate your own returns.
October’s historical performance is indeed worth noting, but what really determines whether you make money is your entry point, position sizing, and trading rhythm.
After all, buying at a high point means that even if the overall trend is eventually correct, it may take a long time to break even.
Looking at history can boost confidence, but trading can’t rely on history alone.📈 $BTC short-term trend continues to be strong
Currently, BTC price is around $86,058, with short-term bulls in control.
Technical structure:
- MA5: 85,594
- MA10: 85,426
- MA20: 85,236
- Current price stands firmly above all three moving averages, maintaining short-term bullish momentum;
- MA5 > MA10 > MA20, moving averages show a bullish alignment;
- Price previously broke through the 85,500–85,600 range and has consecutively closed with bullish candles, indicating continued short-term buying support.
🎯 Next focus: resistance above
86,100–86,200 is the most critical short-term resistance zone currently.
If the hourly chart can effectively close above this zone and continue to hold, then the following levels can be watched:
➡️ 86,500
➡️ 87,000
➡️ 87,238 previous high
The area around 87,238 is a strong resistance level. If BTC breaks through with volume and confirms holding above, the short-term market may open further upward potential.
Current strategy remains: watch for continuation on breakout, watch volume on rallies, and avoid chasing at key resistance levels. Many people lose money trading $BTC because they are too impatient.
For short-term trading, focus on three levels: $85,000, $86,800, and $87,300. Being above $86,800 is not enough; to really strengthen, it needs to break through $87,300 with volume support.
If the price falls back near $85,000, pay close attention to whether the buying can hold; if it breaks below $84,700, be prepared for a larger correction.
My strategy is: don’t chase the first breakout candle, don’t rush to bottom-fish on pullbacks, wait for signals from direction and volume before acting.
In the market, patience is not about missing opportunities but avoiding paying for uncertainty.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 BTCFrom the current cycle position, the market still shows clear bullish and bearish divergences. 🟢 Bullish view: The bottom is basically established Some institutions believe that BTC has experienced about 11 months since the cycle peak, with a maximum decline of about 52%. Although this is not as deep compared to the average retracement of 70%–85% in past cycles, as institutional funds gradually enter, Bitcoin's overall volatility is also decreasing. Meanwhile, the continuous increase in ETF holdings and the steady decline in exchange BTC reserves indicate that market chips are gradually concentrating in the hands of long-term holders. According to this logic, the previous downturn may have already completed its bottoming process, and the market is entering a new upward phase. 🔴 Bearish view: Macro pressures are not fully relieved Another faction believes that the current phase is more like a continuous accumulation stage by institutions, with macroeconomic uncertainties still present and liquidity conditions not fully easing. Therefore, it is not easy for BTC to stabilize above $100,000 in the short term. Even if there is a temporary breakthrough, a subsequent pullback is possible. Ongoing volatility and macro liquidity remain important factors limiting BTC's further rise. ⚖️ In summary The current market consensus is relatively close to: The bottom area has most likely formed, but it will take time to truly break through $100,000. The probability of falling back below $60,000 is relatively low, but the possibility of directly starting a one-sided surge is also not high. A more realistic path might be to first oscillate repeatedly in the $76,000–$88,000 range, through $NEAR is still within the range, no rush to take sides yet
The current price is still between the previous high and low points, so it can't be considered a breakout or a breakdown. The high and low points from the past few hours are 4.973 / 4.858 USDT, and the just closed 5-minute candlestick is at 4.941 USDT. The recent 15-minute trading volume hasn't shown a significant increase, indicating that neither bulls nor bears are exerting obvious strength at this position; it's more of a wait-and-see.
Next, we still need to see if the closing price can provide a clearer position. If the close returns above the previous high, this neutral view should shift more bullish; conversely, if the close falls below the previous low, then consider a bearish bias. Before either of these situations occurs, there's no need to change the judgment based on intraday fluctuations.Good morning, $GRASS This short position has already reached a 15% return, which is quite comfortable.
The market is currently fluctuating up and down, clearly consolidating, and it feels like that big bearish candle isn't far off. I'm just waiting, whenever a decent big bearish candle appears, I'll take profit and exit immediately.
Is anyone else watching $GRASS? How much further do you think it can drop, or is it time to run? Let's discuss your thoughts in the comments. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $BTC Today's key BTC price levels
According to today's market:
🟢 First support: $86000–86600 Short-term bulls' first defense line.
🟢 Second support: $84800–85300 The most important pullback buy zone today.
🟢 Third support: $83100–84000 Falling here means a clear short-term structural weakness.
🔴 First resistance: $87300–87500 The most important resistance level today.
🔴 Second resistance: $88700–88900 The next target after breaking 87.4K.
🔴 Strong resistance: $89300–89500 Watch after breaking 88.8K.
My priorities today:
🥇 First choice: Buy on pullback near $85K
🥈 Second choice: Break above $87400 and confirm pullback to buy
🥉 Third choice: Fake breakout near $87400 to short
Currently, it is not recommended to heavily chase longs directly in the $86700–87000 area because BTC has risen continuously, RSI is at a high level, and around 87.4K is exactly previous high resistance.
The macro environment is still relatively friendly to risk assets: after weaker employment data, the market's probability of a rate hike in October has clearly decreased; however, ETF inflows have recently slowed significantly, so the fundamentals are bullish but not a risk-free one-sided bull market. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Currently, BTC and ETH are showing very strong momentum! I should have closed my position when BTC stabilized above 85,000 early last night! Unfortunately, I got a bit carried away and impulsive yesterday, going against my own opening and closing principles. Looking at BTC's ETF weekly inflows exceeding 2 billion USD and Q3 crypto funds seeing tens of billions of dollars flowing in, these factors also contribute to BTC's strength! But what we need to note is that funds have not withdrawn. However, no one is willing to chase high and take on the risk! Plus, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high. Looking at the current support levels, I now define BTC support around 84,000 and resistance near 87,000. For ETH, support is around 2,660 and resistance near 2,780. For now, I will observe the direction before choosing to trade!$PUMP is really disappointing, it formed a double bottom again, and around 4 o'clock it pulled back near 0.0635, now it's like this again, and the long positions basically haven't decreased. Reduced 99% of the position at 0.06373, but I have a feeling this move isn't over yet.Good morning everyone, a new week and a new beginning. Currently, Bitcoin is still rebounding, and the bulls are gathering strength again. The upper target is around 87400–87500; if it can break through and hold steady, I believe there is still room for the rebound to continue upward. Conversely, if it surges up but then falls back, it will continue to oscillate within the 82500–87500 range. From the weekly chart perspective, my overall bullish view remains unchanged. The market has returned to the lower edge of the weekly box between 85000 and 94000 from last November to this January, so pay close attention to whether 85000–86000 can hold. If it holds here, there is still a chance to continue upward this week. First, watch the resistance at 91000; if it breaks through further, then look toward around 94000. While bullish, if the lower edge does not hold, adjustments should be made when necessary. Today's contract trading strategy: BTC: Buy on dips, focus on around 86000, take profit references at 87500 and 89000. ETH: Buy on dips, focus on around 2700, take profit references at 2770 and 2880. SOL: Buy on dips, focus on around 120, take profit references at 123.5 and 127.45. When the price reaches these points, also consider the current trend; do not enter just because the price hits the level. Set stop losses in advance according to your actual position and the proportion of principal loss you can bear. Regarding spot trading, I continue to maintain my previous view: overall bullish, buy in batches on dips. For those who have not started building positions, I personally think it is still worth watching for pullbacks.Conclusion first: $FET 24h +16.1% is not a sentiment-driven pump, but a typical sideways accumulation with volume explosion structure, where 4H volume first shrinks to a low level then expands 2.5x to break through the $0.245 resistance.
Data: FET-USDT-SWAP rose from $0.2243 to $0.2604 in 24h, high $0.2646, with OKX perpetual contract volume around $414M.
From 10-03 20:00 to 10-04 12:00, five 4H volumes went from 66K → 153K → 348K → 147K → 422K contracts, average volume about 227K. The 4H candle at 10-04 16:00: open $0.2453 → high $0.2603 → close $0.2574, volume 1.13M contracts = 4.97 times the average of the previous five 4H volumes. At 10-04 20:00 volume shrank to 798K, holding above $0.25 without breaking.
Background: BTC +2.1%, ETH +1.1%. This $FET candle broke through the $0.22-$0.24 sideways box since late September, with funding rate and open interest rising simultaneously, indicating real money is accumulating.
After the AI sector cooled down, FET is the first leader to reestablish the trend with 4H volume. Do you think FET can lead the AI sector for another run? $FET $BTC PUSHES HIGHER, BUT DISCIPLINE MATTERS MORE.
I'm watching BTC at 86,661 after a 24h range of 84,790–86,994. Up 3.78% on 7D, yet 87,238 is the 4h swing high ahead. I'd rather respect that level than chase strength.
How do you manage risk near prior highs?
#BTCETHETFFlowsDiverge If I had obediently followed big brother's steps, I wouldn't have ended up hanging from a tree. 😭😭😭
"Big Brother Maji's New Move: Clearing PUMP, Adding BTC, Total Position Back to 156 Million"
Big Brother Maji really hasn't been idle. Just after clearing out PUMP, the funds immediately shifted to BTC, with the overall position rising from 146 million back to 156 million. The previous few moves were spot on; whether this one continues depends on the rebalancing details:
$BTC: Position increased from 378 coins to 504 coins, adding 126 coins; average price 84,800, floating profit rose to 220,000, liquidation price moved up to 70,600. Almost all spare funds are pressed into the mainstream, position clearly increased.
$ETH: Still holding 36,000 coins without change, but floating profit shrank to 450,000; daily funding cost burns 1.24 million, liquidation price at 2,493. Profits are being given back, but he is still holding firm.
$HYPE: Slightly increased to 175,000 coins, floating profit over 90,000, liquidation price 46. Not much change, no action for now.
The strategy this round is clear: cut PUMP, reposition heavily back into BTC, indicating big brother thinks this level is worth a gamble. Next, it depends on whether BTC's rebound can hold steady; we'll watch as it unfolds.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 Bitwise CIO emphasizes the institutional appeal of $XRP: its long history and familiar financial use cases help increase advisors' confidence in its sustainability. This indicates growing interest from “smart money” in assets with real-world utility and regulatory clarity.
Is XRP ready for broader adoption within institutional circles? FET surged 12% in one day, touching 0.265 this morning. I think this is a rotation within the AI coin sector, not due to any positive news specific to it, so I’m not chasing it.
What I observed: On 10/4, Binance daily price rose from 0.2259 to 0.2531, with a high of 0.265 this morning, nearly a 4-month high.
The lowest was only 0.1192 on 8/17, so it has more than doubled since then.
Grayscale’s report on 10/2 said the AI coin sector rose 54% in September, while the entire crypto market only rose 24%.
Leading the way is NEAR, which surged 183% in one month.
FET itself also rose nearly 50% in September, but I haven’t found any official partnership or upgrade announcements in recent days.
My view: This money is following the sector trend; when NEAR pauses, FET will likely pause as well.
The 50-day moving average on the daily chart is still below the 200-day moving average, so the long-term trend hasn’t reversed yet.
What to do: Observe and don’t chase. If it stabilizes above 0.265, then watch the previous high of 0.289 from 6/1. If it falls below about 0.25, this rally is considered invalid.
Do you think there will be a second wave for AI coins this round, or has the rise already finished in September?
$FET $NEAR $TAO
#BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH funds continue to outflow #Federal Reserve and European Central Bank to release September meeting minutesMany people rush to go long when they see the fast and slow lines form a golden cross, but often end up buying at a short-term high and get shaken out by a pullback. Today, I'll share a technical detail: after a golden cross, don't chase immediately; wait for the price to pull back near the fast and slow lines before entering, which greatly increases the success rate. I once lost 200,000 U because I chased heavily right after seeing a golden cross, only to stop out on a pullback. Currently, $BTC is at 86642, the fast and slow lines have formed a golden cross upwards, resistance is at 86963, support at 86000. The strategy is to wait for a pullback to the 86200-86300 range to lightly try going long, stop loss at 86000, first target 86963, if broken then look at 87500. Open a position with 5000 U, do not hold through losses and always use stop loss. Remember this phrase: don't chase the golden cross high, get on board after the pullback. $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 On October 2nd, the SEC officially approved the rule change of the Cboe BZX exchange, allowing Volatility Shares' 3x Bitcoin futures ETF (and products like Ethereum) to be listed. This product tracks 3 times the daily return of the futures benchmark, is not spot-based, and can only be officially traded after registration takes effect. 👉🏻Short-term impact When such news breaks, market sentiment usually heats up first. The launch of leveraged tools means more short-term funds have an official channel to amplify BTC volatility. In the short term, this may boost sentiment, cause funds to flow back into spot, and prices are likely to experience a pulse-like surge. But don't forget, trading hasn't truly started yet, registration hasn't taken effect, so before the positive effects are realized, it's normal to see a rise followed by a pullback and some choppy consolidation. 👉🏻Long-term impact This represents a further relaxation by US regulators on crypto leveraged products. The introduction of 3x futures ETFs can attract more traditional funds and institutions to test the waters, increasing overall market liquidity. In the long run, with more tools available and relatively lower participation thresholds, it is beneficial for the maturation of the BTC ecosystem. However, leveraged products have daily resets and compounding decay, which can accelerate price swings during high volatility, potentially amplifying overall market fluctuations. 👉🏻Comprehensive judgment Overall, this is slightly bullish. Regulatory approval plus the launch of new tools constitutes a medium- to long-term structural positive. It is not like a spot ETF that directly supports buy orders, but it indirectly enhances market activity and attention. Short-term sentiment is likely to be boosted, and medium- to long-term it helps sustain capital inflows. 👉🏻Tip for beginners Leveraged ETFs are not "guaranteed 3x profits" The heat of the sectors rotates, and the relative strength of coins is always in dynamic competition 🔄
No asset can always dominate the focus of funds; narratives rotate, and the rankings of strength and weakness will be rewritten.
$ETH, as the ecological foundation, has outstanding bear market resilience, but during thematic outbreaks, its gains often lag behind L2; $ARB, when the L2 market explodes, shows full elasticity, but funds quickly withdraw after the narrative cools down; $LINK, as oracle infrastructure, has long-term stable demand but rarely experiences short-term continuous surges.
Do not fixate on sector labels, and do not assume that one type of coin is always stronger than another.
Former sector leaders will also enter prolonged sideways trading after funds switch.
You can be optimistic about the underlying value of the sector in the long term, but in trading, you must dynamically adjust positions following the heat of funds.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
#英伟达股价再创历史新高，市值逼近6万亿美元 A brief overview of three coins.
$USELESS: Whale long-short ratio is 170.56%, with more long whales dominating and longs showing slight floating profits. After a round of pullback on the daily K-line, it entered consolidation, with MA5 supporting the price. Attack level at 0.2470, defense level at 0.2350. Subjectively leaning towards waiting and watching, consider action after a breakout.
$ONE: Whale long-short ratio is 138.76%, most long whales are at a loss, shorts have slight profits. The daily downtrend is slowing, oscillating at a low level to form a bottom. Attack level at 0.002180, defense level at 0.001990, leaning towards trying long positions to play oversold recovery.
$AKE: New coin, whale long-short ratio is 152.54%, both sides have large floating losses, with significant chip divergence. The daily line continues downward, bears still dominate. Attack level at 0.03580, defense level at 0.03220, subjectively bearish, watch for opportunities to sell on rebounds. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 BTC vs ZEC: two different whale plays right now.
BTC broke $86,000 (+1.66%) on Oct 5, with wallets holding 10–10K coins adding 41,025 BTC in 10 days now at 13.64M coins (67.93% of supply), highest since mid-August.
ZEC sits near $1,336 after a 19% weekly drop, yet a single whale accumulated 65,158 ZEC (~$91.13M) across six wallets. One is breaking out, the other is being quietly hoarded.
$BTC $ZEC Teacher A's live trading record | Dollar-cost averaging SOL Day 275, profits finally hit a new high 💰
📅 Check-in day: Day 275
💰 Current holdings: 129.87128798 SOL
📈 Current profit and loss: +41.00% (spot profit about +30,464 CNY)
📊 Current price: ~121.25 USDT
Honestly speaking: from a 5% floating loss on Day 226, when commenters asked "Is it time to run?", to today's new profit high — during those dozens of days, I did nothing but kept going.
The current market is not easy; the daily chart repeatedly tests around 124.96, with short-term support at 117.58 below. The monthly chart shows a historical high at 295.90, which is actually still halfway up the mountain. ⛰️
My strategy is simple:
1️⃣ Buy according to plan regardless of rise or fall.
2️⃣ Buy more when it falls, buy less (or hold) when it rises.
3️⃣ Keep a buffer in the trading account, basically leave the earning coins untouched, let the interest roll itself.
In this market, surviving longer is more important than making quick profits.
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 If you are also in a "seemingly no progress" phase, don't rush to deny yourself.
Any friends also dollar-cost averaging SOL? Raise your hand in the comments! 🙋
OKX #SOL #DollarCostAveragingCheckIn #LiveTradingRecord #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Rallying and calling it a bull market, dropping and calling it a bear market? If the range isn't broken, just keep trading back and forth. This morning I woke up and took profit on both trades.
The most interesting thing about this market is that when it rises a few hundred points, everyone shouts "bull market is here" and "charge"; when it falls a few hundred points, everyone shouts "bear market is here" and "it's over." Constantly contradicting themselves, isn't it exhausting?
Looking back at this week, the non-farm payrolls unexpectedly hit 29,000, and BTC surged to 87,000. How many people chased the high shouting the bull market is coming? I shorted at the peak, and then Saudi Arabia made a move at night, directly pushing it down to 83,000.
After the drop, what do I think? The geopolitical conflict is only temporary, 83,000 hasn't been broken, the range is still intact, so I reversed to go long again.
Opened a long on $BTC at 84366, took profit at 85799 this morning, gained over 1,400 points; opened a long on $ETH at 2675, took profit at 2730, gained over 50 points. Woke up this morning and saw both trades safely took profit, feels good!
Why dare to trade back and forth? Because the range hasn't been broken. BTC is between 83,000 and 87,000, ETH between 2650 and 2800, this range has lasted nearly two weeks with no effective breakout. Before the break, the lower boundary is for longs, the upper boundary is for shorts, simple, straightforward, but effective.
Don't get carried away by market sentiment. When everyone is hyped, stay calm; when everyone is panicking, be greedy. Opportunities come from waiting, not chasing. Before the range breaks, just honestly trade back and forth, take profits and run, don't expect to get rich in one bite.
Secure your gains, what you hold in hand is real. Next week's CPI is the real factor to break the range; until then, keep trading. 🇺🇸 $ZEC -focused policy group Pretty Good Policy for Zcash has registered its first lobbyist, executive director Divij Pandya, per Punchbowl.
$BTC $ETH $BTC Damn! I've been watching it closely for two days, and it kept consolidating sideways slowly. Just when I was losing patience, it suddenly broke upwards late at night!
Yesterday I expressed many times that the market is almost entirely in a bullish trend. Although there is still significant resistance above, the overall bullish market structure has not been broken.
Even though it's a bullish market now and the price has risen above 86500, with the possibility of forming a sideways consolidation, I still maintain my original view that the upside is limited.
The reason is that Bitcoin's price has not had a deep pullback since the lowest point, and the profit-taking positions are huge.
Above 88000 is the area where the trapped positions from last year's bull market start to concentrate.
There is heavy selling pressure above 77000, with trapped positions beginning to unload.
Since last week, ETFs have had inflows and outflows, with a net increase of only about 50 million USD, so incremental funds are insufficient.
With many big obstacles weighing down, the current Bitcoin market still lacks the motivation for a continued big rally.
I still believe it can rise in the short term, but very limited.
Always be prepared for the risk of a pullback.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only!
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额