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BTC and ETH: Optimism is in the distance, patience is in the present
For the mid-to-long term of BTC and ETH, I remain cautiously optimistic, but there is no need to rush in the short term; oscillations and shakeouts may repeat.
Currently, the macro environment is neutral: the economy is neither bad enough to force easing nor strong enough to make the Fed continue tightening, so the market lacks a clear main theme. Therefore, even if there is good news, the market often struggles to sustain momentum, and funds tend to take profits in the short term.
$BTC remains the stronger side. Multiple pullbacks have held above 82,000, with clear institutional support at lower levels and a healthy market structure; however, selling pressure above 85,000 is significant, so in the short term, it will likely fluctuate repeatedly between 83,000 and 84,000. ETH had a larger previous gain, but its mid-to-long-term potential is slightly weaker than BTC. It has strong support around 2,650, but there is consistent resistance above 2,700.
Capital flows are also diverging: BTC spot ETFs are seeing inflows again, while ETH funds continue to flow out. There is no need to guess the direction next; wait for news to develop and ETF funds to keep flowing back, then follow the trend once a clear signal is given. Optimism is warranted for the mid-to-long term, but patience is needed in the short term.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 10.5 Monday Gold Morning Review
Gold prices have formed a "double top" reversal pattern within the strong resistance zone at the 4220 level. Previous two attempts to break through encountered strong selling pressure.
Currently, we will closely watch whether gold prices will break below the key level of $4100.
I believe gold may test the support area between 4070 and 4050.
Resistance is above at 4180–4205.
The next resistance level is 4250–4280.
Downside target prices are 4100, 4070, and 4050 respectively. $XAU Funds are starting to pick their seats
Today's peculiarity is not in the rise or fall, but in the fact that funds no longer move in unison and are starting to choose their own directions.
BTC: Being suppressed does not mean weakness
With rising expectations of interest rate cuts, BTC has not taken off accordingly, indicating that there is still selling pressure between 85,000 and 87,000. Today, first watch if 85,000 can hold; if it does, then aim for 87,000. Only by truly breaking through 87,000 will there be a new story ahead; otherwise, it will remain a range-bound consumption.
ETH: Waiting for BTC to lend a ladder
ETF, institutional, and staking logic are still in place, but 2,700 seems like a ceiling. As long as BTC doesn't hold it back, once ETH recovers 2,700, its catch-up potential might be smoother than BTC's. On the downside, first watch for support between 2,630 and 2,650.
ZEC: Heat and risk squeezed at the same table
It is no longer just ordinary volatility. Previous sharp rises, whale holdings, and short-term funds moving in and out quickly all overlap. The heat hasn't dissipated, which is an advantage; but too much heat is also a risk. It can still steal the show, but may not be suitable for everyone.
In a nutshell: BTC decides whether the overall market can rise, ETH is responsible for the catch-up rally, and ZEC is responsible for raising the heartbeat. For the first two, watch the candlesticks; for the last one, it's best to also check your position and blood pressure. Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$AXS short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0689%, price -0.37%, open interest -0.52%. Decline accompanied by position reduction, new positions have not yet matched; holding short positions through settlement at the current rate, funding fees will lower the breakeven price.
$SAND short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0524%, price -0.27%, open interest +0.26%. Decline synchronized with position increase; holding short positions through settlement at the current rate, funding fees will lower the breakeven price.
$PUMP negative funding rate is at a near seven-day low for the same period: current 4-hour rate -0.0102%, price -0.54%, open interest +1.03%. Decline synchronized with position increase; holding short positions through settlement at the current rate, funding fees will lower the breakeven price.$BTC Sunday pump: sustainable or just a wick fill? 👀 Price is back at ~86K, right in the zone I flagged for a wick-fill. Friday's daily candle left a long upper wick, and this is the area it needs to trade through to fill it. What matters now isn't the pump itself, it's the reaction: → Rejection here, with the daily closing back under the wick = likely just an imbalance fill → Daily close accepted above 86.5K = the push higher could continue Daily close is in under 3 hours, so I'm watching thatMeow wants to see a clearer issue: once the project is up and running, what exactly do token holders get? There's a lively business and continuous buying support for the coin price, but there's still a way to go in between.
Regarding $INJ, what I think is worth studying is the relatively concrete connection between ecosystem revenue and the token.
According to the official community buyback mechanism, participants hand over INJ and receive ecosystem revenue assets proportionally, and the handed-over INJ is then burned.
This gives something to track: how much revenue is actually distributed and how many tokens are burned. However, having a burn mechanism doesn't directly imply the price must rise. When revenue is low, the burn intensity might be limited; when the market sells a lot, it might not be enough to offset.
I prefer to look at the actual results each period, which is more useful than just talking about deflation.
For $ARB, I won't directly count ecosystem development as token holder income for now.
Its official core positioning is as a governance token, allowing holders to participate in protocol-related decisions.
Governance has value, but to judge the coin price, we still need to ask: why do new users need to buy this coin, and what reasons do they have to hold it long-term?
If new token uses or revenue arrangements appear later, we need to distinguish whether they are just discussions, have been approved, or are already implemented.
$OP has still slightly dropped about 1% in the last 24 hours, and the price hasn't shown obvious upward momentum for now.
In the future, when I see news of ecosystem expansion, I will look one step further: where does the growth ultimately land, and can it create token demand?
If this relationship is still unclear, I won't just count "more and more cooperation" as potential upside in the price.#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
This shift is more worth paying attention to than simply looking at which of BTC or ETH has risen more.
On October 1st, the US spot BTC ETF recorded a net inflow of about $103 million, ending the previous day's outflow of $149 million; meanwhile, the ETH ETF continued to see an outflow of about $55.4 million.
What’s more interesting is that ETH hasn’t been without buyers all along.
In the previous week, the ETH ETF attracted about $690 million in funds, but then experienced outflows for three consecutive trading days, totaling about $118 million from September 29 to October 1.
This reveals a very clear capital divergence:
BTC has regained support, while ETH has temporarily not kept up.
This does not mean that funds have completely left ETH.
It’s more like the market, amid ongoing macro uncertainty, is starting to prioritize BTC, which has stronger liquidity and higher institutional consensus.
So what’s truly worth watching next is not how much BTC ETF inflow there was today.
But rather one question:
When will the capital returning to BTC be transmitted back to ETH?
If BTC continues to attract funds while the ETH ETF keeps seeing outflows, then this round of capital preference may still be concentrated.
Conversely, if ETH funds turn positive again, it would more likely indicate that market risk appetite is truly beginning to spread.
BTC looks like it has funds returning now.
ETH is still waiting for funds to come back.
$BTC $BTC We don’t have to go down directly from here btw. I wouldn’t mind something like this for Bitcoin.
Lil last pump to $88/90k before the big correction lasting something like 1 or 2 months going into the end of the year.
This is the window when imo swing longs should be partially closed to add back lower.The ancient BTC whale that had been dormant for 13 years has awakened, but its move carries deeper meaning.
BTC has risen above 85,000, and the market's attention is fully on this old address. However, it only transferred out 0.001 BTC, worth about 85 dollars. Holding assets worth 115 million dollars, it only made a small test transfer — this is a private key test, not a sell-off.
Meanwhile, the whale group continues to increase their holdings: in the past 10 days, addresses holding 10–10,000 BTC have increased their holdings by 41,025 BTC, with a total holding of 13.64 million BTC, accounting for 67.93% of the circulating supply. Retail wallets are basically inactive, even continuing to exit.
Institutions are also taking action: Strategy has increased holdings by 1,665 BTC at an average price of 85,681 dollars; ETF funds continue to flow in, and the coin price has already surpassed the ETF average cost line of about 83,000 dollars.
The ancient whale is only testing the private key to confirm asset security; the new generation of whales and institutions are the ones genuinely entering the market to accumulate. What do you think of this signal?SOL stuck at $120, leverage squeezed into a cluster, direction unclear—don’t guess yet
The most dangerous thing for SOL right now isn’t a drop or a rise, but that the leverage around $120 has already started to "squeeze into a cluster."
Current price is about $120, with little overall volatility in the past 24 hours, but the open interest in contracts remains near $7 billion, indicating a large amount of leveraged funds are still pressed in this price area, and no one has left.
The key is that there are liquidation chips both above and below the current price. Above $120, the short liquidation zone is clearly concentrated; below $119, longs also lurk with a batch of potential liquidation positions. This means SOL is like a stretched rubber band—the longer the price stays here sideways, the easier it is for the market to accumulate new leverage. Once the price moves quickly, liquidations could further amplify volatility, causing a cascade.
Spot funds also haven’t given a clear direction. The Solana spot ETF recently saw continuous outflows, then shifted back to slight inflows, with funds swinging back and forth, showing an ambiguous stance.
So don’t rush to guess the direction now. Focus on $118–$119 below and $122–$125 above. What’s really worth watching is which side’s leverage gets liquidated first after SOL moves away from $120.
The most intriguing part of the current market isn’t the price itself, but this pile of positions that haven’t exploded yet. On the macro side, U.S. September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, BTC and ETH spot ETFs simultaneously turned to outflows, overall capital heat cooled down, making it even harder for SOL to stand alone. Key signals: BTC and SOL begin synchronized recovery
Yesterday: BTC 84K, SOL 119
Now: BTC 85.1K, SOL 120
This is healthier than BTC pulling up alone. If BTC rises while SOL remains weak, it indicates funds are still defensive. Now that both are warming up together, it means risk appetite is returning.
But one last step is needed:
BTC must firmly hold above 86K
SOL must break through 121–122 $BTC We don’t have to go down directly from here btw. I wouldn’t mind something like this for Bitcoin.
Lil last pump to $88/90k before the big correction lasting something like 1 or 2 months going into the end of the year.
This is the window when imo swing longs should be partially closed to add back lower.This is the combined magnitude of the 3 major corrective impulses within each phase. I’ve already explained how these phases work, but there is another important detail I want to point out. In the 2022 structure, we saw that the summary of the 3 corrective impulses in Phase 1 was relatively similar to the summary of the 3 corrective impulses in Phase 2 — but not exactly the same. 2022 Structure Phase 1: -38.66% + -32.08% + -25.57% = ~96% combined Phase 2: -20% + -41% + -45% = ~106% combined So, Over the past night, the market continued to swing back and forth. BTC briefly touched 85120 at midnight but didn't even get a chance to hold steady, being pushed back directly to 83140. Whenever it rebounded to a key level, selling pressure emerged, indicating that the trapped positions above and short-term profit-taking are both exiting. On the 15-minute chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are still tangled and trending downward. Although MACD shows a slight golden cross signal, the momentum is completely insufficient, and the short-term structure remains weak. For now, watch if 83200 can hold; 83800 above is the emotional watershed—only a volume-backed break below it qualifies for looking at 84200 and 84600. If it breaks below 82800, don't stubbornly hold long positions; first see if there is support around 82500. ETH, on the other hand, is relatively more resistant to decline. As of the time of writing at 10.5 5:32, the price is around 2705, with the three short-term moving averages starting to converge, and MA20 supporting at 2695. The 2720 level is right ahead; once effectively broken, the next targets are 2745 and 2760. Structurally, ETH currently stands above all major moving averages, with the 200-day moving average still far below at around 2119 providing strong support. But note, the retail long-short ratio has reached 2.76, with 73.4% of positions betting on the long side. This level of crowding is high, and historically, such times often require a wave of stop-loss clearing before continuing upward. On the macro front, the 10-year US Treasury yield remains above 5.28%, with risk-free returns higher than the expected returns of many altcoins, suppressing the willingness of large funds to enter. This is also why BTC at 8We discussed this yesterday, and now we're probably seeing some flatlining this Saturday with some potential movement on Sunday. I'm not positioning during the weekend, but I'm already looking at scenario's on Bitcoin for next week. This drop to the downside left two big gaps, so orders probably need to be filled there before a potential bigger drop. So if we test the 85.7K-86.7K region before testing 82K, I'm definitely looking for short triggers. 82K is still a valid POI for intraday/swing lon$BNB Damn it! This shakeout is really brutal. BNB was slammed down to 793.5, and the group chat is full of wails—how many people got thrown off the train? 😂
Looking at the candlesticks, the big players are dumping money downwards, but the volume hasn't increased, a classic fake fall trick. The manipulative whales are up to no good this time, clearly trying to scam you out of your chips.
At 793.5, which is a dense support zone from before, I placed an order to catch it. Stop loss set at 780; if it breaks, I accept it. Looking up first at 820, will talk if it holds above that. Don’t fomo chase the highs, and don’t panic sell.
The premise for not losing in this move is—you have to dare to act when others are panicking. I secretly laid a trap; you decide what to do. 👇👇👇
The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile; please make decisions cautiously and bear your own profits and losses.We discussed this yesterday, and now we're probably seeing some flatlining this Saturday with some potential movement on Sunday. I'm not positioning during the weekend, but I'm already looking at scenario's on Bitcoin for next week. This drop to the downside left two big gaps, so orders probably need to be filled there before a potential bigger drop. So if we test the 85.7K-86.7K region before testing 82K, I'm definitely looking for short triggers. 82K is still a valid POI for intraday/swing lon🔥 The closer BTC gets to a breakout, the more it tests trading discipline.
🟠 $BTC has once again approached around 85000, with bullish sentiment clearly warming up.
But don’t forget, a breakout isn’t successful just by touching the resistance level.
There are only two real signals:
Price holds steady, and volume follows.
If there is a volume-backed breakout above 85000 and the key area holds, the market has a chance to continue challenging higher levels.
But if it spikes up and then quickly falls back, breaking the support near 84500, this rally might just be an emotional pump.
Capital flow also shows divergence:
BTC ETFs are seeing inflows again, institutional allocation demand is rising;
ETH ETFs are still experiencing outflows, indicating more cautious capital choices.
The market isn’t without opportunities now, but it’s filtering for truly strong assets.
Don’t fear missing a breakout, and don’t ignore false breakouts.
First, consider the worst outcome, then wait for the best opportunity.
Watch volume for breakouts, watch support for pullbacks.
The above is just my personal market notes and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH Capital is rotating, not retreating
Recently, the capital flow in crypto ETFs has not been a one-sided decline but shows clear differentiation. Bitcoin ETFs still maintain net inflows, indicating that allocation demand has not disappeared; Ethereum ETFs have cooled recently, with rising cautious sentiment; Solana ETFs' momentum has cooled down, with short-term enthusiasm waning.
This looks more like an "internal rotation": funds are withdrawing from temporarily strong assets to seek directions with better cost performance or narrative support. The difference in heat among assets does not equal an overall market downturn. As long as there is no large-scale, sustained net outflow, the market may still maintain a bullish structure amid rotation.
Price is the result, capital flow is the clue. Price tells us how the market reacts, while capital flow reveals where the money is going. In the short term, BTC's resilience remains the wind vane; whether ETH and SOL can attract capital again will determine if the rotation spreads. For investors, rather than chasing the heat of a single ETF, it is better to observe whether capital forms a healthy cycle among assets. The overall market may not rise synchronously, but structural opportunities still exist. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $BTC
Price will have swept 97K and be trading in the 90Ks within the next couple of months...
As I keep repeating, this bull market will likely be a 30% quicker version of the previous one, since this is the first time the bear market has lasted only 266 days instead of 365 and ended roughly 20% shallower.
This could lead to a new ATH around July 2027 and a macro top around mid-2028.Since Friday’s dump, price has been slowly chopping higher while traditional markets are closed. Looking at the data behind the move, you can see that this pump is mainly being driven by perp longs entering the market, which is not a good signal. I expect price to pump around the new weekly open, retesting the golden Fibonacci level of the recent dump + the uptrend, followed by bearish continuation. My main targets are the liquidity clusters below the recent major lows at $82.500 and $80.000. I’$BTC 📈
Zone of interest got hit ✅
But no reaction, no trade confirmation = no trade ❌
We saw aggressive short selling into session VWAP getting absorbed.. not the kind of price action we want to sell into.
So we simply wait for the next trade trigger…Let’s look at the bigger picture first. In May, BTC reached the $80,500–$81,700 gray zone and was sharply rejected. In September, price stayed below this zone for weeks. Eventually, BTC broke through with a strong daily candle, turning the old resistance into new support. After the breakout, BTC climbed to $87,358. For around 10 days now, it has been moving between $82,700 and $87,358. We’ve seen two wicks above $87K, but no daily close above it yet. Volume has also been dropping. When price kee$BNB Damn it! This BNB chart is driving me crazy, outside it's quiet with no one making a sound, but inside the market it's dog-eat-dog with everyone biting each other. At the 793.4 level, funds are stubbornly pushing up, clearly the dog traders are holding sickles waiting for the retail investors to stick their necks out. 🔥
The K-line has been sideways with low volume for a long time, suddenly a spike down then instantly pulled back up—if this isn't a shakeout, what is? The old trick to scare the timid into selling their chips. I don't care about the outside noise, I only trust the signals from the chart.
My idea is simple: accumulate in batches around 793.4, set stop loss at 783.5; if it breaks, accept the loss and leave, don't talk to me about faith. Above, first see if it can hold steady at 810.
Whether you dare to secretly ambush a move here is up to you. Control your position size, always bring a stop loss, don't come asking me what to do later. 💡
This content is only my personal review and does not constitute investment advice.
👇👇👇I am the mid-term intelligence guy.
Let me analyze the potential risks currently facing $BTC for everyone.
Glassnode says that people in the 89,000 and 97,000 cost zones are cutting losses;
Ali points out weakness before 87,200, whales selling over 30,000 coins during the rise, with support seen at 82,500
Kalshi gives only a 14% probability of breaking 100,000 by 2026, sentiment is cold.
Bitdeer sold out 292 coins, a 16-year-old whale transferred over 5,000 coins, all signals of cashing outOriginally wanted to cut losses as a sacrifice, but the sacrifice didn't happen, and the meat cooked itself. This morning when I opened the market, $HYPE gave me a surprise directly. This long position went up from 87.924 to 90.852, with a paper profit of +166.39%, feeling unreal in a good way.
When I was watching that lower shadow line at dawn yesterday, I felt the buying was unusual. Even though it was pushed down, someone kept buying, and the volume kept increasing. I told my brother at the time that not going long here would be disrespecting the market, and it really didn't disappoint.
Risk control is done upfront, that's called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action. Don't be greedy for the last bit this time, take profit on 75% first, and move the stop loss of the remaining 25% to the cost price, letting the profit run on its own. If it can't run, at least you won't spit out the meat already in your mouth.
Even if you only make one point, as long as you can take it away, it's yours; any floating profit beyond that belongs to the market. For those who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me: now is not the time to rush in. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. There will be more opportunities later, wait for my next signal.
$DOGE $BTC Impermanent loss for LPs comes from relative price changes rather than protocol fees.
After providing two assets to an AMM, the pool automatically adjusts the position ratios as trades occur. When $ETH rises significantly relative to the other asset, the LP gradually sells ETH and buys the other side; the opposite happens when it falls. Compared to simply holding both assets, this rebalancing can result in a lower final value, known as impermanent loss. It is not a secret deduction by the protocol but a position change caused by the market-making formula.
Fees can offset part of the loss but cannot guarantee full coverage. When trading volume is high, prices fluctuate back and forth, and eventually return close to the original level, fees may prevail; in a strong one-sided trend with volatility beyond the concentrated range, LPs may suffer relative losses and stop earning fees. Nominal annualized returns are often estimated based on recent trades and cannot replace judgment about future price paths.
Before joining a pool, you should clearly decide if you are willing to automatically execute "sell when up, buy when down." If your goal is simply to hold $ETH long-term, LPing does not inherently enhance returns; if you can manage ranges, understand counterparty flows, and bear rebalancing, then it is a market-making strategy. The term "impermanent" does not mean losses will necessarily disappear; the difference becomes real upon exit.🟢 New all-time high: Can you imagine that Nvidia's market cap is approaching the $5.7 trillion mark? The stock recently hit a new record level at $237.88, supported by terrifying quarterly revenues nearing $100 billion (with a 100% year-over-year growth rate). 🔴 The real story is not just "computing power": while everyone focuses on the processing and AI gap, the real secret lies in the company's absolute dominance strategy being executed: 🟩 Direct stock support: The board approved a massive $150 billion share buyback programThe funding rate of the $WIF perpetual contract turned extremely negative once the price hit 0.2492. The market's short leverage was severely overloaded, but the spot selling pressure had already weakened, which is a typical sign of a short squeeze.
I directly used 50x leverage to go long at 0.2492 and push the price up. As the high-leverage short positions were liquidated in a chain reaction, the mark price smoothly rose to 0.2558, capturing a 132.42% profit.
The extreme negative funding rate is the fuel for a sentiment reversal. The rate has rebounded somewhat now, but the structure has turned bullish. Be cautious of a shallow pullback followed by a second long opportunity. $BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 Capital Thermometer: BTC has a floor, ETH is on the sidelines, ZEC relies on sentiment
After the non-farm impact, the BTC spot ETF did not see institutions rushing to exit; overall holdings remained stable, with a slight net inflow recently, laying a "non-slip mat" for the rebound. However, the inflow intensity has narrowed compared to the previous euphoric phase, with no large single-day or continuous position increases, indicating that funds are merely repairing, not launching a strong attack.
ETH spot ETF is relatively cold. Small outflows and sporadic inflows alternate, with institutions more like spectators on the sidelines, lacking sustained large orders. Without strong catalysts, ETFs struggle to bring incremental volume, so ETH can only follow BTC more, resulting in weaker rebound elasticity.
ZEC has no corresponding ETF, so there is naturally no ETF fund inflow or outflow to discuss. Its price is driven by retail investors and contract funds in the secondary market: rises depend on narrative, declines lack institutional support. Without ETF backing, volatility is often more intense than BTC and ETH, and drawdowns can suddenly amplify.
Summary: BTC has returning support, ETH funds are more cautious, ZEC is purely speculative. Currently, it is a restorative inflow, not a full-blown frenzy. This is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 $AT perpetual contracts precisely touched the upper boundary of the descending channel at 0.135, coinciding with a previous dense chip concentration resistance zone. Technically, the 1-hour moving averages are diverging downward, exerting pressure, and there is a severe volume-price divergence.
After confirming the stagnation signal at the 0.135 resistance level, I decisively opened a 20x short position. The price then retraced along the channel's midline, reaching 0.1259, with a floating profit of 134.81%.
Trading is about position, not emotion. There is slight support around 0.125 currently, but if the rebound cannot hold above 0.13, the bearish trend will still dominate. $DOGE $SNDK #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #Besent: The rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with the global trend. Folks, what Besent is basically saying is, U.S. Treasury yields are high, so no need to panic.
The 10-year yield has hit 5.34%, the highest since 2002, and the 30-year yield is also at a 20-plus-year high. Despite poor nonfarm payrolls, yields only dipped slightly before bouncing back. What does this mean? It means the mountain weighing on risk assets can't be moved in the short term. $GRASS perpetual contracts precisely touched the upper boundary of the descending channel at 0.725, coinciding with a previous dense chip concentration resistance zone. Technically, the 1-hour EMA144/169 moving averages diverge downward to suppress, and there is a severe volume-price divergence.
After confirming the stagnation signal at the 0.725 resistance level, I decisively opened a 20x short position. The price retraced along the channel's midline, reaching 0.6935, with an unrealized profit of 86.89%.
Trading is about position, not emotion. There is slight support around 0.69 currently, but if the rebound cannot hold above 0.70, the bearish trend will still dominate. $BTC $ETH #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 VanEck: Bitcoin is taking gold's "job," and a 59% market share is just the beginning
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck, stated that Bitcoin may continue to expand its share of global asset allocation in the future. Quantum computing is a long-term risk but not enough to justify selling.
First, let's look at market share. Bitcoin's share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen from 40.83% in 2022 to about 59%, with a market cap of $1.7 trillion, BTC in today's rise managed to restore stable uptrends on the hourly and 1.5-hour timeframes. And it has already moved strongly upward along these trends. Thus, all the bears' gains from Friday's decline have been absorbed precisely by these trends. Although initially, Friday's dump of -2.4% against the backdrop of positive US labor market data looked promising for a decline. At the same time, there is another important signal from Sunday - BTC, ETH, and 23 other assets from the TOP-200 showed three potential high marks on the 4-hour timeframe. There are two Brothers, let's not criticize the market makers tonight, just talk a bit about the real market logic.
$BTC is repeatedly bottoming between 83,000–85,000, the on-chain chip concentration signal is somewhat like the 62,000 segment in early August. Only by breaking above 85,000 will the upward space truly open. $ETH has reached the end of a symmetrical triangle, 2,700 is the last gate, whales are quietly accumulating, but there is heavy selling pressure above 2,722. ZEC pulled up then retraced 21%, ETF outflows are suppressing sentiment, 1,200 is the key support. $DOGE has all moving averages squeezed at 0.09, the active buy-sell ratio is only 0.80, a typical structure of retail holding and smart money distributing.
After the non-farm payroll surprise, the probability of a rate hike in October has fallen below 50%, and the macro environment is slowly warming. All four coins are waiting for a breakout; before the direction emerges, move less and watch more.
Brothers, which one are you holding now? Let's chat in the comments.👇
$BTC $ETH $ZEC $DOGE
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $NEAR
Today it rose by 3.56%, gradually moving upward among public chains.
Contract holdings increased by 3.6% in 24 hours, with 60.6% of large accounts on the long side, and a fee rate of 0.01%, not overheated.
Current price is 4.921; if it holds, there is still room to grow, if it falls, better to wait and watch, don't chase aggressively. $NEAR
$NEAR ETF attracted $8.3 million in inflows in one week, $LINK only rose 1.2%: I'm bullish
Wow, this data from 1 hour ago is solid: Chainlink spot ETF net inflow reached $8.3 million in one week, the best since August, yet $LINK price only climbed from 14.154 to 14.213. Institutions are buying ahead, the market hasn't fully woken up — at this level, I'm directly bullish.
The ETF buys spot exposure, so share expansion equals real money locked in. Since the ETF launch, there have only been two days of net outflows; continuous buying structurally reduces circulating supply.
On the chart, daily RSI is 59.3, slightly strong; MACD golden cross above zero line for 12 days; MA7 crossed above MA30 for 13 days, short-term moving averages in bullish alignment; fear and greed index at 65, market in attack phase, with 45 up and 16 down across the market.
In derivatives, funding rate is 2.971e-05 neutral; long-short account ratio 1.7832, no excessive speculation; volume ratio 0.319, low volume slow rise.
Resistance above: 14.219
Support below: 14.142
Breaking below 14.142 would directly falsify the event logic — if it doesn't break, this is my position: enter on a pullback to 14.142 without breaking, stop loss at 13.98, add position on volume breakout above 14.235 to target extension.
I'm watching the chart closely, follow me so you won't miss the next signal.
$LINK $BTCSUSHI
Once the DeFi king SUSHI, now only earning tens of thousands a week? A thorough breakdown of income & profit logic!
✅ Is there any income?
Yes! SUSHI has verifiable real on-chain protocol income. It is a veteran AMM DEX, with revenue coming from user trading fees. But the scale is very small, completely unable to keep up with the current leading tracks, and cannot enter the top 10 on-chain income list. Active Trading Radar｜Last 15 Minutes
$BTC final segment active trades shifted from predominantly buying to predominantly selling: overall active buying was 61.7%, last five minutes was 34.1%, with a price change of -0.04% during this segment. The shift in trades has not yet corresponded to a significant price rise or fall; the recent price net change is limited.10.5
The price is pumping! The price is pumping!
Over the weekend, BTC rose from 84000 to 86000. The dog whales always like to pump the price in the Monday morning session, and BTC broke through 86000.
Don't rush, pay attention to the resistance at 86800. If it breaks through and holds, it may reopen the bullish trend.
If it repeatedly faces pressure at this level, it is most likely just a rebound after a correction.
Don't look for opportunities, but wait for opportunities.
Risks often come from one's own impatience.
Opportunities are born from calm and decisive execution.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 I really can't stop laughing, fam!
$SAND, you haven't dropped at all.
Why are you still slowly climbing?
The funding rate is almost killing me.
The returns are still negative 180%.
Almost 200%.
Why are you so disgusting?
If I just closed my position and you drop tomorrow,
That would really piss me off.
Stop rising.
My stop loss is set at 0.09.
Drop quickly!
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $NIGHT NIGHT The early session rebound clearly lacks momentum, with heavy selling pressure above.
I've been watching the market closely, and when I saw the price touch the previous high again but fail to break through, then start to form a long upper shadow, I judged that a top was very likely formed.
At 0.050869, I decisively opened a 20x short position, perfectly timing this cliff-like drop.
Current price is 0.045159, floating profit +224.49%. This textbook "double top" decline is absolutely not to be missed. $BTC $SNDK
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #FedECBMeetingMinutes Minutes matter less as a replay of September than as a test of how durable policymakers' inflation concern was before the latest US jobs data. The Fed's 25 bp move makes language around further hikes especially useful: emphasis on optionality could leave markets viewing the softer employment reading as room to wait, not a decisive turn. 🐋 Big Brother Machi added margin to his 144 million large position: ETH dropped and he increased his position
#BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH funds continue to outflow
Latest on-chain data shows Big Brother Machi’s total exposure is about 144 million USD, but on Monday he made a new move—deposited 500,000 USDC into Hyperliquid to top up margin for his ETH long position.
$BTC 409 coins · 40X full position, worth about 35.22 million USD. BTC dropped from 86,868 to 84,800, so this part of Big Brother’s unrealized profit is shrinking but still safe. He reduced from 569 to 409 coins, having taken some profits above 85,000.
$ETH 33,950 coins · 25X full position, worth about 92.56 million USD. This is his largest position and the reason for topping up margin—ETH dropped from 2,755 to 2,679, close to his cost line. Instead of cutting positions, he added funds to hold, showing confidence at this level.
$HYPE 180,000 coins · 10X full position, worth about 16.16 million USD. He aggressively increased from 88,000 to 180,000 coins, betting against the trend that HYPE will continue to rise after 90. Currently slightly down by 88.8, but he hasn’t moved.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Big Brother has won 10 consecutive trades on PUMP in 5 days earning 1.34 million, now topping up margin to hold ETH; this move is worth watching.🚨 BTC IS SHOWING A CLASSIC WYCKOFF PATTERN
I’ve been tracking the 4H structure, and the current price action is starting to resemble a Wyckoff Distribution schematic
We’ve already seen the Phase A, Phase B, then UT/UTAD sequence, with the move toward $87K fitting the potential UT/UTAD area
The rejection that followed is now the important part
If this is indeed Phase C, the next step should be a series of SOWs and LPSYs - each rebound failing lower as support gradually gets lost The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the Cboe BZX rule change (SR-CboeBZX-2026-065) on October 2, 2026, allowing six 3x leveraged products under Volatility Shares to be listed, including 3x $BTC, 3x $ETH, as well as gold, silver, crude oil, and natural gas.
These products are designed as commodity trusts aiming to achieve three times the daily price movement of the reference asset before fees. PUMP just generated $55.5m in protocol revenue over 30 days. Flipped hyperliquid. Sitting right behind tether and circle. While most of the market was bleeding through late september, pump's 50% programmatic buyback engine kept absorbing float regardless of broader conditions. Whale accumulation on top of constant spot buybacks forced a supply squeeze. +30% on the week before the defillama stats even hit. Now consolidating around $0.0062 after the rejection. Setup from here: $0.0062 holds — favo2.5 million USD is just the smallest positive news for HYPE
Today's news about HYPE, just one headline is enough to catch attention:
HyperLink completed a 2.5 million USD funding round, and last month the routing transaction volume already reached 254 million USD, with the next phase targeting directly 10% of Hyperliquid's trading volume.
But the more critical part is actually on the other side.
The first AQAv2 yield of 14.58 million USDC has already arrived, and will subsequently enter the Assistance Fund, used to buy back HYPE.
So looking at these two together:
On one side, the Hyperliquid ecosystem continues to expand trading volume; on the other, the USDC reserves generate yield that starts converting into HYPE buyback demand.
And all this news is within the last 24 hours.
So the 2.5 million USD seen today might really be the smallest piece of good news for HYPE.
What to watch for HYPE going forward is no longer just the price, but whether trading volume, USDC yield, and buybacks can continue to connect.
$HYPE #波动雷达：币种异动观察 CORE has completely decoupled from the broader market; what exactly is causing the decline? Are long-term holders starting to panic and flee?
On the market front, CORE spot trading volume is only 2.719 million, with contracts at 6.4349 million. When market sentiment warms, CORE fails to attract overflow capital, and buying demand is completely exhausted. The contract and spot prices are almost at parity (0.02175 vs. 0.02171),