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BTC was still chatting about 90,000 a couple of days ago, and today it directly dropped to 81,000, the hits are loud and clear. But I think this is not a fundamental collapse, it's leverage being forcibly squeezed out. Over 1 billion USD liquidated in 24 hours, mostly longs. High leverage betting on a rise, once a key level breaks, chain liquidations trigger a stampede to exit. It's not that BTC suddenly lost value, it's that those borrowing to gamble got forcibly liquidated.
This is different from the 19 billion in October last year. Back then, funding rates were over 20% annualized, scorching hot; this time it's only about 7%, and liquidation intensity is just about one-ninth of last September.
So why the drop? Money got expensive. The Fed's September minutes leaned hawkish, with a 85% chance of a rate hike in December; 10-year US Treasury yields at 5.3%, oil prices above 104 pushing inflation. Risk assets are definitely taking a hit.
I see around 80,000 as the psychological line for bulls. If it holds, it's a shakeout; if not, liquidation orders around 75,000 might queue up. JPMorgan says about 50 billion USD more will come in this year, big money hasn't withdrawn, but short-term won't rush to buy.
In my opinion, first unload the leverage, hold spot and don't panic. Those liquidated were forcibly closed, not actively bearish. Selling only means margin was insufficient, not that BTC is failing. After this wave of forced liquidations passes, the market will be much cleaner.
$ETH $SOL $BTC [James Butterfill: Digital asset fund inflows slow down due to uncertainty, bond market drivers may surpass the Federal Reserve]
CoinShares Head of Research James Butterfill stated that since mid-July, digital asset funds have cumulatively inflowed $11.1 billion, but recent inflows have slowed, reflecting uncertainty. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has risen above 5.3%, and the 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5.7%, both at their highest levels in over twenty years. The probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October has dropped from 71% to 23%. James Butterfill believes the importance of the bond market may exceed that of the Federal Reserve, and that a Bitcoin breakout needs to be driven by fiscal logic.
$BTC $BTC This pullback, the most frustrating thing is not being stuck, but missing the entry by 100 points.
Yesterday, after closing the short at 83600 from 85550, I kept watching the market. Unexpectedly, BTC kept dropping, falling from above 86,000 on the 4-hour chart all the way down to 80351, that low was really brutal.
I had placed a long order at 80200 in advance, planning to catch a rebound after the sharp drop. But the lowest point only reached 80351, 151 points short, and then the price bounced back to around 81800.
It’s honestly regretful. If the order had been filled, there would at least be a chance to ride some of the rebound now.
But thinking calmly, an unfilled order doesn’t necessarily mean the judgment was right; a rebound doesn’t necessarily mean the bottom is in.
The most obvious change in the market now is the fast drop, a rebound at the low, but there’s still resistance near 84000 above. Next, I want to see if around 80300 can hold and whether the rebound has sustainability, rather than rushing to go long just because of a single green candle.
The most tormenting part of trading isn’t losing money, but missing out on making money by a little.
But the market won’t give me another chance just because I missed the order by 151 points.
This trade is missed and that’s that. Next time, I’ll wait for the price to reach the planned level before acting.
Brothers, when you encounter situations where you almost get filled but then the market moves away, do you chase in or keep waiting? Today's market showed an extremely extreme 20/80 split. BTC and SOL experienced significant pullbacks, but NEAR had a completely independent performance. The overall account is shrinking, but the position structure is still within my risk control model.
$BTC (Base position pullback, testing the defense boundary)
Average position price 84,044, current price 82,824.
Current unrealized loss 724.05U, return rate -29.46%.
BTC fell below 83,000, which is the main source of the account's pullback. But no trend goes straight up unilaterally; base positions enduring volatility is normal.
$SOL (Position isolation, controlling risk exposure)
Average position price 117.41, current price 115.85.
Current unrealized loss 56.87U, return rate -26.93%. Margin rate 28.43%.
This trade once again proves the value of "position isolation." Although it followed the market correction, its liquidation line is at 112.90, very close. $LAB can reach 0.06 and I'll eat it—I’m watching you make a fuss
This LAB is acting up again, pumping 15% in one go, now at 0.0539 pretending to be dead.
Just now at 0.0548, it was obvious some big holders were secretly selling off.
You ask if I dare to chase? I’m not taking the bag.
To be blunt, the selling pressure above can smash people into meat paste.
Want to hit 0.06? Fine, go ahead, if it does, I’ll eat my keyboard on live stream.
I’ll just sit below 0.05 with a small stool, watching the drama unfold.
If you really manage to push it up hard, I’ll do a handstand and applaud you. $ETH Ethereum pulled back from 2432 to above 2500 today, rising 2.6% intraday. But just a few hours ago, the market went through a massacre.
In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.193 billion, with over 190,000 people liquidated. Long positions liquidated $1.055 billion, shorts only $138 million, longs were massively harvested.
The largest single liquidation happened on Ethereum, $19.98 million, wiped out in one shot.
Then I saw something even more absurd.
A giant whale holding 28,716 Ethereum long positions was liquidated, worth $69.69 million. After being liquidated, he didn’t run, but doubled down. He currently still holds 78,955 Ethereum longs, worth $196 million. The new liquidation prices are $2299 and $2286.
Liquidated once, not satisfied, keeps holding on. The liquidation price is just below, less than $200 away.
How is this different from me?
When I was liquidated on CORE before, I had the same mindset. Losing but unwilling to accept it, adding more, holding on, getting liquidated again. The difference is they lost tens of millions, I lost a few hundred U. But essentially, it’s the same action: not giving up.
Ethereum ETFs are also running. Eight consecutive trading days of net outflows, BlackRock alone withdrew $71.12 million yesterday, with cumulative outflows exceeding $640 million. Institutions are running, whales are holding, retail investors are getting liquidated.
I even lost 0.35 U.
Let’s discuss in the comments, with Ethereum pulling back from 2432, do you think this is a rebound or a bull trap? Folks, this drop in Bitcoin really breaks the heart 😭.
Simply put: oil prices and US Treasury yields are both soaring, the Fed is not easing, institutional ETFs are massively withdrawing funds, plus long leverage is cascading (nearly 1 billion blown up).
Right now, don’t rush to catch the falling knife, keep a close eye on the 81900 level in the short term; breaking below that will hurt. Let’s wait for the Fed meeting and see if ETF funds can come back. Hold tight, watch more, act less～🥺
This is just my personal observation, not financial advice.
$BTC #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 The characterization of this wave of decline: multiple negative factors resonating
BTC dropped sharply from above $85,000 to an intraday low near $80,400, with over $1 billion liquidated across the network within 24 hours, of which longs accounted for more than 90%, and nearly 190,000 people were liquidated. This is not caused by a single factor:
High U.S. Treasury yields are a structural suppression. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains around 5.30%, with a real yield of about 2.92%. Before bearing Bitcoin's volatility risk, investors can already obtain considerable returns from government bonds, continuously squeezing Bitcoin's risk premium.
FOMC minutes are hawkish. The September meeting minutes show that 19 officials unanimously support rate hikes, with most considering another hike before the end of the year appropriate. Although the market believes there is an 81.7% probability of no change in October, the probability of at least one hike in December remains 85%.
ETF funds saw significant outflows. On October 8, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had net outflows of about $244 million, with Fidelity's FBTC leading single-day outflows at $197 million, marking the second consecutive day of large outflows.
Geopolitical tensions push up oil prices. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, Brent crude oil rises to about $105 per barrel, reigniting inflation expectations. $BTC $ETH $ZEC #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Nearly $1 billion ran off from ETFs in October
Brothers, institutional money is running away. Only 9 days into October, the combined net outflow of US BTC and ETH spot ETFs is about $986 million, and breaking $1 billion is just a matter of these few days.
Let's see who's running: On Wednesday (October 7), BTC spot ETFs had a single-day outflow of about $485 million, the largest single-day outflow since June 25, with BlackRock's IBIT alone running about $208 million. ETH is even worse, with spot ETFs having net outflows for 8 consecutive trading days, totaling about $641 million, and ETH alone outflowed about $579 million in October.
Looking at on-chain data: Short-term holders transferred over 50,000 BTC to exchanges within 24 hours, nearly 60% of which were transferred at a loss. ETF redemptions combined with spot inflows to exchanges are putting pressure on the market from both sides.
In plain terms: BTC is currently around 82,700, looking stable, but the faucet is still flowing out. Only when money flows back in will the price have real support.
What do you think? Is this outflow just a temporary retreat before returning, or is it just the beginning? Let's discuss in the comments.
Risk warning: The market is highly volatile, please control your positions. For reference only, not investment advice.
#Bitcoin #ETFI am the mid-term intelligence guy
To ease everyone's tension, let's look at some off-topic news
Just saw a major on-chain/judicial intelligence.
Raheim Hamilton, co-founder of the an web Empire Market, was directly sentenced by the Chicago Federal Court to 40 years in prison and fined 5 million USD. He operated the platform from 2018 to 2020, with drug sales totaling nearly 375 million USD, all conducted through cryptocurrency.
Here’s the key point: he agreed to surrender about 1230 $BTC, 24.4 ETH, and three properties.
In the long term, this kind of forced confiscation is positive, as selling pressure will be locked down by regulation. Don’t be misled by short-term emotions.
Another co-founder, Thomas Pavey, pleaded guilty last year; sentencing is still pending.
$ETH
$OKB
#BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 In this round of US crypto regulatory progress, there is an official's own reminder that is much more honest than the interpretation of "full liberalization."
In the statement on October 5, the CFTC Chairman clearly acknowledged that regulators cannot indefinitely replace Congress in legislating. Within existing authority, rules can be advanced first; for more comprehensive market regulatory powers, a legal framework from Congress is still needed.
I support doing what can be done first. The industry has waited too long; projects need to know how to design products, and institutions need to know who is responsible when problems arise. Every time progress is reduced to "which coin benefits," it actually overlooks the most practical role of rules: allowing participants not to repeatedly guess how their business will be treated.
But procedures cannot be skipped either. The SEC's adjustment of the crypto asset custody framework is currently a proposal and still needs to go through steps such as public consultation. Announcing direction, forming final rules, and obtaining clear legal authorization have time gaps. Business arrangements of enterprises can only correspond to the regulations effective at that time.
This time, I am more willing to expect policy continuity: the business set up today will still know what requirements to operate under tomorrow. Clear regulation is certainly welcome, and the industry should cherish the stage of participating in feedback. Simply shouting "all regulatory barriers are gone" is easy but does not help those who really want to launch products. Letting the rules be implemented is more important than prematurely celebrating the rules.
#美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 A website being down does not mean Ethereum has stopped running
Many people first encounter $ETH through wallet pages, market data interfaces, and RPC services. If any one of these times out, they might think "the chain is broken." But application availability and protocol activity are two different things: a website might be affected by DNS, CDN, or frontend failures, RPC providers might throttle requests, yet Ethereum nodes continue producing blocks and transactions can still be broadcast through other entry points.
This distinction is especially important during periods of high market volatility. Congestion in a single wallet and a single RPC simultaneously can make users mistakenly believe their assets are frozen; if they have access to alternative RPCs, block explorers, and local signing methods, they can first verify the on-chain status before deciding whether to proceed.
Of course, alternative entry points themselves must be trustworthy; unfamiliar websites found through temporary searches may pose greater risks.
Decentralization does not guarantee that every interface is always online, but that if one service fails, the system still has other verifiable paths. When evaluating $ETH infrastructure, I value fault isolation and replaceability more than a frontend that has never reported an error. The protocol continuing to operate is the fundamental resilience; whether users can find another secure entry point determines if this resilience can truly be perceived.Today is Friday, after tonight, we will see how the recovery goes on Saturday and Sunday. No one can be sure if there will be a "double bottom," but if I were the market maker, I wouldn't allow a double bottom. If it happens, I would definitely push for a new low (to stop out those who bought at the previous low) and then quickly recover (forcing those who missed out to open short positions). The rise always starts with doubt and ends in celebration.
Because this phase is a "volatile downtrend," the key levels left behind during this process are now "connected." Starting from 826/828, upwards are 831/834, then 838/844. If the bulls are strong, they will normally defend 821~823; if weak, it will retest around 816. According to the "Fibonacci cat" calculation, the previous low multiplied by 1.03 means that after the 4-hour close is above 828.12, the downtrend stops + a new rebound begins. If it doesn't close above, this is the start of a new pullback. Right now, the price is just around this level, so it's worth observing more. For safety, you can wait for the daily close above this price, then buy on the pullback to continue going long.
I have a feeling, at the latest after CPI, there will be a rally. This is not based on any evidence, just a "fit" based on history and experience. If it rises, consider it good luck and a correct guess. If it doesn't, we all take the hit together.
I held onto the spot position I took last night and don't want to exit for now; I'll keep watching.
There is no market that only falls without rising, nor one that only rises without falling. When the time is right, buy slowly and in batches.
$ETH $SOL $BTC Today, these two short positions on ETH and ZEC really broke my defense.
I opened a short on ETH at 2499 in the early morning, and it kept dropping. At the peak of floating profit, I was even planning to treat myself to a good meal, but I didn’t exit. I thought I’d hold on a bit longer, then got too tired, threw my phone aside, and fell asleep. When I woke up, the price had returned to my cost price, and all the profit was gone. I stared at the chart for a few minutes, felt it wouldn’t go down further, so I closed the position with just a tiny profit.
The ZEC trade was the same. I opened a short at 1219, it dropped to a low of 1111, and I had nearly $100 floating profit but didn’t exit out of greed. The result was the same as ETH: a big player made a deep V pullback to 1232, so I stopped out at breakeven. After sleeping, all the profit was gone. It was like a roller coaster ride, I’m exhausted.
In the end, taking profits is much harder than cutting losses. Next time, I’ll lock in most of the profits first and then manage the rest. 😮💨
$ETH $ZEC #ETH触及2500美元后震荡 #ZEC跻身前十，机构化进程提速 #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
Personal review, not investment adviceWhen evaluating public chain projects, you can't just look at what the whitepaper says.
Take ACO as an example. The whitepaper's planned direction includes not only the underlying public chain but also modules like DEX, DApp, social content, cross-chain, and community governance.
For these modules to form a complete ecosystem, it involves not only technical development but also product experience, user adoption, and synergy among applications.
Therefore, when researching such projects, you can separate a few questions:
1. How is the development progress of the underlying infrastructure?
2. Are the planned applications actually implemented?
3. Are there real users and genuine usage demands?
4. Is the subsequent roadmap advancing according to the public plan?
The whitepaper can help us understand the project's design concept, but ultimately it needs to be verified by actual progress.
The above content is for project research communication only and does not constitute investment advice. What wind is blowing $LAB? I checked the market and found that LAB's surge today is purely a capital game, a plate that has already been hammered to pieces. Whoever chases now is just taking the bag. The simultaneously activated STRK and MAGIC are the same—pure short-term sentiment, don't get carried away!
What foundation does LAB have? Insiders control over 95% of the tokens, and team-related wallets deposited nearly 100 million tokens to exchanges during the pump. The founder previously ran RAVE and SIREN with the same pattern: pump up, attract retail investors to chase, then crash overnight. This rise from the bottom is essentially a self-rescue short squeeze after an oversell.
Looking at $STRK STRK, it relies on strkBTC incentives and mainnet upgrades as dual catalysts. But on October 15, 127 million tokens will be unlocked, and the RSI has long been overbought. This pump is just pushing the price up before the unlock; once the new chips are released, retail investors buying at the high will be cannon fodder.
MAGIC $MAGIC has risen more than twenty points, but its core TVL has already dropped to zero, and on-chain activity cannot support this increase. It's purely momentum trading, with leveraged open interest accounting for over 60% of market cap. Once buying power falters, the reversal will be very sharp.
The top gainers in the pump list are either backed by solid fundamentals or pure sentiment plays; LAB and STRK clearly belong to the latter. Especially STRK, don't touch it before the unlock. Protecting your principal is more important than anything. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 @OKX星球 The first time I bought crypto was when a colleague mentioned it in the hallway.
He said just hold $BTC and don’t mess with it.
I went home and downloaded the app.
Stayed up late trying to pass the facial recognition but kept failing.
My hands were shaking when I was depositing money.
The next day after buying, it went green (down).
I cursed myself for being too quick.
When it bounced back a bit, I felt pretty good about myself.
During that time, I was often distracted at work.
My boss stood behind me and I almost threw my phone.
Later I tried $ETH.
Wanted to learn how to bridge chains like others.
The fees were painfully expensive.
Chose the wrong network once and lost a small amount instantly.
Didn’t even eat dinner well.
Then I heard people talking about $SOL.
They said it’s fast and lively.
I tried a little to test the waters.
Didn’t dare to buy much.
Being cautious actually meant less loss.
Now the rules are simple.
Play only with spare money, don’t borrow to invest.
If you make a profit, take some out to have a good meal.
If you lose, don’t add more, just close the app and sleep.
Calls in the group are just jokes.
Don’t envy others’ profits.
Just watch the cursing.
No trading at midnight.
Once added position at dawn,
Woke up to find it shrunk.
Since then, no trading after 11 PM.
Don’t risk your life for this.
Work well and eat well.
No matter how lively the market is, it’s better to sleep soundly.
These are lessons learned the hard way.
No big philosophy,
Just remember this. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049
#霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% Today's market showed an extremely extreme 20/80 split. BTC and SOL experienced significant pullbacks, but NEAR had a completely independent performance. The overall account is shrinking, but the position structure is still within my risk control model.
$BTC (Base position pullback, testing the defense boundary)
Average position price 84,044, current price 82,824.
Current unrealized loss 724.05U, return rate -29.46%.
BTC fell below 83,000, which is the main source of the account's pullback. But no trend goes straight up unilaterally; base positions enduring volatility is normal.
$SOL (Position isolation, controlling risk exposure)
Average position price 117.41, current price 115.85.
Current unrealized loss 56.87U, return rate -26.93%. Margin rate 28.43%.
This trade once again proves the value of "position isolation." Although it followed the market correction, its liquidation line is at 112.90, very close. $AVAX
AVAX dropped more than 9%, how was the previous independent rally disproved?
This morning's 24-hour spot observation window: range 9.714—11.198 USDT, change -9.17%, trading volume about 10.63 million USDT.
The observed price is at the lower end of the range, and the decline also exceeds BTC; the previous lead did not sustain steadily. An independent rally requires repeated verification and cannot label the asset permanently based on a single rise.
If the market remains stable but continues to break lows, withdraw the leading explanation; if the highs and lows move up again and relative strength recovers, then observe anew.$BTC continues to adjust, currently trading around 82000, with a 24-hour decline of about 1.5%. ETH has fallen below the 2500 mark, and mainstream coins generally follow the decline.
Sentiment has further weakened, with the Fear and Greed Index dropping to 58, down 5 points from yesterday. The 7-day average is 66, still in the greed zone but declining for several consecutive days. In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network is about $1.191 billion, with long position liquidations at $1.056 billion, accounting for nearly 89%. Nearly 192,000 people have been liquidated, with long leverage facing large-scale clearing. The funding side is also under pressure, with spot ETF net outflows of about $485 million in a single day, the largest single-day redemption since the end of June. The cumulative fund flow in October is a net outflow.
From the chart perspective, 81500 to 82000 is a short-term support area; if broken, the psychological level of 80000 is expected below. The resistance zone has shifted to 83000 to 83500; until it recovers above this, any rebound is still considered a weak correction. On the macro side, the Federal Reserve's September minutes released a hawkish signal, which will suppress the overall performance of risk assets.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 Today's market showed an extremely extreme 20/80 split. BTC and SOL experienced significant pullbacks, but NEAR had a completely independent performance. The overall account is shrinking, but the position structure is still within my risk control model.
$BTC (Base position pullback, testing the defense boundary)
Average position price 84,044, current price 82,824.
Current unrealized loss 724.05U, return rate -29.46%.
BTC fell below 83,000, which is the main source of the account's pullback. But no trend goes straight up unilaterally; base positions enduring volatility is normal.
$SOL (Position isolation, controlling risk exposure)
Average position price 117.41, current price 115.85.
Current unrealized loss 56.87U, return rate -26.93%. Margin rate 28.43%.
This trade once again proves the value of "position isolation." Although it followed the market correction, its liquidation line is at 112.90, very close. $NEAR This wave is not a crash, it's just a pullback caused by too much increase, because recently there has been no black swan event for it, and the overall bull market trend is still intact:
Why say it's not because the fundamentals are bad, but because it rose too smoothly? Because it nearly doubled in three weeks, rising nearly 80% in 30 days, with almost no decent pullbacks in between.
The chips are stacked in the hands of bulls at high levels, and a change in sentiment can easily trigger profit-taking by bulls.
Of course, $NEAR had a $3.8 million vulnerability, but this is not the main reason, because it was quickly controlled and is insignificant compared to the market cap.
What really amplified the decline was the concentrated bulls combined with chained conditional orders hitting the market.
Moreover, its counter-narrative is still being amplified. Bitwise's CIO said it belongs to the blockchain of AI, and it nearly doubled in the same quarter. The narrative has not been falsified, it was just prematurely exhausted by leverage.
Of course, don't rush to bottom-fish now; wait until it falls to the right level. Buying at a cheaper price is more comfortable. Although I usually buy mainstream coins myself, I see many bloggers also planning to bottom-fish it, and it is worth holding long-term!$ETH 2500 ETH, do you still dare to touch it?
Here's the conclusion first: those who dare are already calculating their positions, while those who don't are still asking in groups, "Is it going to zero?"
What's the current situation? ETH has fallen below 2500, dropped another 4% in 24 hours, slipping down for three consecutive days. Even more intense, there's $1.35 billion long liquidation waiting below 2500, while short liquidation above is less than $1 billion. The meaning is clear: if it crashes down, more longs get liquidated; if it pulls up, shorts get hurt.
ETF has had net outflows for six consecutive days, running away with $400 million. Institutions are withdrawing, retail investors are holding on, and big players are running — whales holding between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH have sold 150,000 ETH in two weeks. To put it bluntly, even the rats on the ship are starting to jump.
So it depends on who you are:
For short-term traders, around 2500 is a meat grinder; easy to get in, hard to get out, with $1.35 billion liquidation waiting below, don't be stubborn.
For long-term holders, Standard Chartered is calling for 4000, you decide. Anyway, it's already halved from the year's high, you might say it's cheap, but it could get cheaper.
For onlookers, grab a seat, whether 2500 can hold is way more interesting than watching a drama. #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 Today's market showed an extremely extreme 20/80 split. BTC and SOL experienced significant pullbacks, but NEAR had a completely independent performance. The overall account is shrinking, but the position structure is still within my risk control model.
$BTC (Base position pullback, testing the defense boundary)
Average position price 84,044, current price 82,824.
Current unrealized loss 724.05U, return rate -29.46%.
BTC fell below 83,000, which is the main source of the account's pullback. But no trend goes straight up unilaterally; base positions enduring volatility is normal.
$SOL (Position isolation, controlling risk exposure)
Average position price 117.41, current price 115.85.
Current unrealized loss 56.87U, return rate -26.93%. Margin rate 28.43%.
This trade once again proves the value of "position isolation." Although it followed the market correction, its liquidation line is at 112.90, very close. $ETH's cost lines for both longs and shorts are all squeezed at 2530; this is the critical lifeline for Ethereum!
Looking at the smart money, the average cost for the bulls is 2530, and for the bears it's 2527. The cost lines for both sides are almost at the same position. Currently, the price is below this line, with the bulls overall losing more than 12 million, while the bears are making over 11 million.
How tough is this line? Once the price rebounds near 2530, the bulls finally break even and their first reaction is to sell. The bears, acting as market makers to defend their cost, immediately add to their shorts. They sell to get out of their positions while defending the line with shorts. Both selling pressures hit the same spot, making it extremely difficult for Ethereum to break through.
The lifeline is right above; those standing below it are the winners. Brothers, before the price touches this line, hurry and short in!$STRK
STRK has recently seen a significant rise, mainly driven by narrative rather than already implemented business benefits, so investment should still be cautious.
On October 8, StarkWare founder Eli Ben-Sasson said the team is seriously considering making Starknet independent from Ethereum to become a standalone L1, aiming to create a "fully quantum-resistant" network by 2027, earlier than the Ethereum timeline he mentioned for the end of 2029. This is not yet a governance-approved plan, just under consideration. After the news broke, STRK surged against the trend, rising over 40% within 24 hours, with the price around $0.07 and a market cap of about $500 million. Contract positions expanded significantly, futures trading volume was several times that of spot, while spot net inflow was very small.
There were also several earlier events in the same round:
- StarkWare released a quantum-resistant roadmap and conducted experimental quantum-resistant signature transfers on the mainnet, with fees around 6 cents. Full deployment is not yet complete.
- Around October 2, strkBTC incentives were added, waiving bridge fees for the first 100 BTC bridged in, and small faucets and staking were launched.
- Around October 5, the mainnet upgraded to v0.14.4, capable of handling larger proofs, paving the way for future privacy and complex contracts.
- Staking amount exceeded 800 million STRK, with TVL roughly tripling from last year's low.
On-chain revenue remains very thin. According to DefiLlama, protocol revenue in recent quarters has mostly been in the hundreds of thousands of dollars range, far from supporting this price surge. So this round is more like a trade narrative around quantum resistance plus independent L1, with no voting on the plan and no actual detachment from Ethereum yet.Crypto used to feel like its own universe.
Now BTC reacts to:
Fed policy
bond yields
the dollar
ETF flows
global liquidity
That's both good and bad.
More institutional relevance.
More macro sensitivity.
Would you rather have BTC this way or the old way?Which coins are trapped
$CP September new coin, peaked at launch, going long means being trapped, trading volume plummeted, slowly becoming a hidden coin
$BEAT June speculative coin, peaked at $11, now dropped to $0.09, still some residual hype, and a group of dreamers haven't left
$BSB April speculative coin, peaked at $2.6, now dropped to $0.1, trading volume plummeted, slowly becoming a hidden coin
I'm still trapped in these three coins, not because I won't sell but because they've dropped so low, and the capital cost is minimal so I just hold on, what if?#ChanTheoryPerspective $BTC $ETH
Just opened 1 short position on BTC at 8.26 and 20 short positions on ETH at 2502. From the 5-minute perspective, there have already been 3 segments, with a slight triple divergence. However, the combined 30-minute yellow and white lines are crossing upward for the first time, and the 4-hour yellow and white lines are about to form a golden cross downward. So personally, I believe BTC price will rise to around 8.36, and ETH to around 2570. These two levels are central pivot points and also resistance levels of the moving averages. But since the market is not controlled by oneself, to avoid missing out, I opened a small position first. If the price reaches the expected levels, I will consider opening a heavy short position based on the market situation.The RWA narrative isn't exciting because “everything becomes a token.”
It's exciting because blockchain could change HOW existing assets move.
Settlement.
Ownership.
Access.
Trading hours.
That's a much bigger idea than another altcoin launch.
Agree?💰 A hacker stole $55 million and spent it on Pokémon cards and ancient coins.
A former cybersecurity specialist hacked the crypto platform Uranium Finance and stole tens of millions of dollars.
Interestingly, he spent a significant portion of the money on collectibles.
However, five years after the crime, he was finally identified, arrested, and found guilty. In total, the man could face up to 30 years in prison.U.S. stocks opened collectively weaker, with the Nasdaq 100 QQQ opening lower, down 0.53%, and the S&P 500 SPY also declining by 0.31%. High-leverage growth ETFs sold off more sharply, with KORU, INTW, and SOXL plunging significantly, and the semiconductor sector under clear pressure.
Currently, the question is whether this pullback in growth stocks is a short-term digestion or a trend weakening. The major indices fell moderately, but leveraged semiconductor and Korean broad-based ETFs saw amplified declines, indicating rapid capital withdrawal from high-risk growth assets, which are highly elastic and leading the sell-off.
The position is very clear. The major indices only experienced a slight pullback without breaking key levels; however, leveraged semiconductor ETFs like SOXL faced concentrated selling pressure, indicating a decline in market risk appetite.
Mapping this to the crypto market, the collective pressure on growth assets will indirectly weigh on BTC's long sentiment. We won't see a direct heavy short position just because U.S. stocks fall, nor will the sector panic selling be ignored due to modest index declines. Whether this sentiment transmission from U.S. stocks continues depends on whether the semiconductor sector further widens its losses. #SpaceX拟购频谱拓展移动通信 #黄金ETF创纪录吸金，高利率仍压制金价 #Securitize推出12只链上美股 $BTC $ETH $SOL
Trading crypto without considering cycles and macro factors will always lead to chasing highs and selling lows. The core underlying logic of the crypto market is the BTC four-year halving cycle plus U.S. Treasury yields and liquidity; all market rises and falls revolve around these two points.
BTC’s complete four-year cycle is divided into four stages: accumulation, rally, distribution, and decline. The halving does not immediately trigger a bull run; it usually starts with a pre-heating bottom formation, then gradually initiates the main rally after the halving. The bull market lasts 12-18 months, followed by a long-term correction and bottoming phase. Accurately understanding the current stage helps avoid the pitfalls of buying at highs and selling at lows.
U.S. Treasuries and interest rates act as the market’s liquidity switch. When Treasury yields rise and interest rates are hawkish, capital prefers stable assets, liquidity in crypto tightens, and large one-sided rallies are rare, mostly showing oscillation and divergence; when rates cool down and liquidity loosens, incremental funds enter, allowing the market and sectors to sustain trending rallies.
Currently, the market is in a cycle transition period, with macro interest rate expectations fluctuating repeatedly. BTC has no clear breakout, and overall the market is oscillating with accumulation and structural rotation. There is no full bull run nor deep downside space.
Short-term price moves depend on candlesticks, medium-term profits and losses depend on macro factors, and long-term wealth depends on cycles. Operating in line with cycles and liquidity is much more stable than frequent trading.
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #跟着OKX打卡2049 The first time I bought $BTC was when a colleague mentioned it in the hallway.
He said just hold on and don’t move it around.
I went home and downloaded the app.
Stayed up late trying to pass the facial recognition but kept failing.
My hands were shaking when I was depositing money.
The next day after buying, it went green (down).
I cursed myself for being too quick.
When it bounced back a bit, I felt pretty good about myself.
During that time, I was often distracted at work.
My boss stood behind me and I almost threw my phone.
Later I tried $ETH.
Wanted to learn how to switch chains like others.
The fees were painfully expensive.
Chose the wrong network once and lost a small amount of money directly.
Didn’t even eat dinner well.
Then I heard people talking about $SOL.
They said it was fast and lively.
I tried a little to test the waters.
Didn’t dare to buy much.
Being cautious actually meant less loss.
Now the rules are simple.
Play only with spare money, don’t borrow to invest.
If you make money, take a bit to have a good meal.
If you lose, don’t add positions, close the app and sleep.
Calls in the group are just jokes.
Don’t envy others’ profits.
Just watch the cursing.
No trading at midnight.
Once added positions at dawn,
Woke up to find a cut in my holdings.
Since then, no trading after 11 PM.
Don’t risk your life for this.
Work well and eat well.
No matter how lively the market is, it’s better to sleep soundly.
These are lessons learned from mistakes.
No big philosophy.
Just remember this. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出
#跟着OKX打卡2049
#霍尔木兹通航降至两月低位，油价跳涨4% #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 $BTC 🔥 19:0 Raise rates by 25bp, interest rate stays at 3.75%–4.00%: the market slashed the October rate hike probability from 70% to 20% — this was the most provocative "hawkish on the surface, dovish at heart" night
Breaking down the September minutes into three sentences:
19 people unanimously voted to raise rates by 25bp → outwardly hawkish
Majority think "one more hike by year-end is appropriate," some think "restriction is insufficient" → verbally still hawkish
But some want to "wait for employment + inflation data before moving" → hands have already pulled back
So a strange scene appeared:
Post-September meeting, October rate hike pricing was 70% → now 20%.
It's not that the Fed turned dovish, but "hawkish wording + softening data + 29k nonfarm payrolls" scared the market into a wait-and-see stance.
What this means for crypto:
10Y yield still holds at 5.28%, bond yields not easing, don't believe in BTC above 82K as a main rally
10/14 CPI = last trump card before 10/27–28 FOMC:
CPI beats expectations → no hike in October but 85% chance of hike in December returns, BTC retests 80.8K / 75K
CPI soft → 0% in October, December uncertain, BTC closes at 83K targeting 84.1K (20-day MA) → 87.2K
Now the pricing logic has changed: "whether to hike or not" is not important, "hiking later" is the lifeline for risk assets
Fed: I unanimously vote to hike, but I can also stay put.Today's market showed an extremely extreme 20/80 split. BTC and SOL experienced significant pullbacks, but NEAR had a completely independent performance. The overall account is shrinking, but the position structure is still within my risk control model.
$BTC (Base position pullback, testing the defense boundary)
Average position price 84,044, current price 82,824.
Current unrealized loss 724.05U, return rate -29.46%.
BTC fell below 83,000, which is the main source of the account's pullback. But no trend goes straight up unilaterally; base positions enduring volatility is normal.
$SOL (Position isolation, controlling risk exposure)
Average position price 117.41, current price 115.85.
Current unrealized loss 56.87U, return rate -26.93%. Margin rate 28.43%.
This trade once again proves the value of "position isolation." Although it followed the market correction, its liquidation line is at 112.90, very close. 🚨 4.33 MILLION $BTC are sitting in reused Bitcoin addresses.
According to Glassnode data reported on October 8, this represents approximately 21.5% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.
But the bigger concern is quantum computing.
When a Bitcoin address is reused after spending, its public key can remain exposed on the blockchain.
The total supply with exposed public keys, including older address types, has reached 6.26 MILLION $BTC around 31.2% of the total supply. Don't mistake a recovery for a reversal; CPI is the final judge ⚖️
This rally looks more like a position adjustment rather than a trend restart. BTC struggled from 81,000 back to 82,000, ETH rebounded from 2400 to 2500, while XAUT steadily strengthened due to safe-haven buying. On the surface, there's broad gains, but at the core, there's divergence: crypto relies on sentiment repair, gold relies on credit hedging. 🤔
Although the Fed's tone is soft, the market hasn't truly relaxed. The probability of no action in October remains high, indicating funds are still waiting for data to materialize. More importantly, recent leverage liquidations left wounds: ETH liquidations exceeded 300 million, BTC over 200 million, nearly 1 billion USD across the market. The small rebound after bloodshed lacks volume support and the structure hasn't been repaired. 📉
ETH remains weak: deeper declines, ETF fund outflows, staking yields lack appeal, so the rebound is just a breather. BTC is relatively resilient but driven only by short covering. XAUT diverges from crypto trends, indicating safe-haven and risk funds are moving separately. 🟡
Therefore, before the CPI release, price moves could just be noise. The rebound is better suited for portfolio adjustment rather than chasing highs. The real referee hasn't blown the whistle yet. ⏳
$BTC $ETH $XAU #9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息 #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 When the screen is full of liquidations, what are the cycle traders calculating?🤔
The Fed minutes are still pending, but the market has already surrendered. The September interest rate is stuck at 3.75%-4%, yet most officials still want to raise it again by year-end. As soon as expectations emerge, leveraged long positions collapse en masse—the market never leaves a seat for gamblers.
BTC failed to break through 87,000, retreating to around 83,000, opening at 82,900. The 82,000-83,000 range is the short-term lifeline: hold it, and it’s still a range; lose it, and 80,000 is just around the corner. ETH is the weakest, dipping to 2,550; once it breaks short-term, there’s no safety net. SOL slid to 115, dropping two or three points daily; the spot ETF has seen net outflows for three days. If 114-115 breaks, there’s a pit below. When BTC shakes, altcoins get buried first.
News is the fuse, but bulls always like to shake people out first. Clearing out swing chips is often the old rule before cycle acceleration. Some panic and surrender, others watch calmly and keep records: is this considered blood-stained chips?🩸
Support is a scale, not faith. Don’t rush to pass death sentences before it breaks down.📉
$BTC $ETH $SOL
#9月FOMC纪要公布，多数官员倾向再加息
#ETF仍在流入，BTC为何下跌？ If there is no AI, quantum computers cracking digital currency may still be far off. The combination of quantum computing and AI is currently the most disruptive long-term potential risk in the crypto industry, threatening the cryptographic foundation of asset ownership. The window for the industry to transform is shrinking.
The vast majority of mainstream public chains struggle to upgrade and transform; however, STRK, with its unique architecture of STARK proofs plus native account abstraction, has forged a low-cost, non-destructive, full-chain post-quantum upgrade path, becoming a benchmark example for the industry to address the quantum+AI threat and providing a model for the secure evolution of the entire blockchain infrastructure.
No matter how high BTC’s price rises or how many people buy it, if a full upgrade to quantum resistance is not achieved quickly, unpredictable catastrophic risks do indeed exist? $BTC $ETH $TRUMP
83,000 is the lifeline for the short whales. If they can't suppress it, it will trigger a chain of liquidations, becoming fuel for a bullish surge.
Honestly, it's a bit dangerous. If it rallies above 83,000, a $200 million liquidation will occur, and BTC will surge straight up. Let's see if the bears can push it down.$BTC dropped from 82713.3 to 82353.1 in 3 minutes, this pullback was very fast, current price is 82526.5. After a short-term continuous surge, it turned into a rapid retracement.
Now watching if the bottom at 82353.1 can hold. The price rebounded to recover part of the decline, no direct sustained deep drop, but the high at 82713.3 could not be maintained, and selling pressure above has already appeared.
The position is very clear. The short-term high above is 82713.3; only by reclaiming this level will the uptrend continue; the first support below is between 82400 and 82353.1, breaking below here will lead to further short-term decline.
Regarding positions, currently holding short positions with stop loss placed above 82713.3. Will not close shorts immediately after a small rebound, nor will aggressively add shorts after a drop. Whether this pullback has ended depends on if the low at 82353.1 can hold. #BTC现货ETF创近三个半月最大单日净流出 #BTC现货ETF大额流入后转负 #美CFTC推进加密市场规则，SEC拟调整托管框架 Top 25 $PUMP pumpfun deployers:
> Launched 770k tokens
> Extracted $128 million from the trenches
> Only produced 6 tokens with a market cap over 20 million
This $128 million was extracted by just 25 developers🔥 الارتفاعات الحالية لأكبر 3 رابحين اليوم مدفوعة بـ عواطف قصيرة الأجل وليس بأساسيات متينة. إليك التحليل الفني والأساسي الشامل لمخاطر هذه العملات: 📌 1. Starknet ($STRK) — فخ الارتفاع قبل الفتح الكبير 🏗️ القطاع: شبكات الطبقة الثانية (Layer 2). 🔓 البيانات الأساسية: سيتم فتح وإصدار أكثر من 60 مليون رمز خلال 6 أيام فقط! ⚠️ السيناريو المتوقع: هناك محاولة واضحة من صُنّاع السوق أو الفرق للتلاعب بالسعر ورفعه لأعلى مستوى (Pump) قبل الفتح، بهدف التصريف على المستثمرين الأفراد عند إغراق السوق بالرموز الجI think we shouldn't consider government coins entering Coinbase Prime as an official dump; depositing into custody does not equal selling. In the past three days, related wallets have deposited about 17,733 BTC (approximately $1.48 billion, Lookonchain); spot price is about $82,422 (Beijing 18:41, Coinbase).Today's market showed an extremely extreme 20/80 split. BTC and SOL experienced significant pullbacks, but NEAR had a completely independent performance. The overall account is shrinking, but the position structure is still within my risk control model.
$BTC (Base position pullback, testing the defense boundary)
Average position price 84,044, current price 82,824.
Current unrealized loss 724.05U, return rate -29.46%.
BTC fell below 83,000, which is the main source of the account's pullback. But no trend goes straight up unilaterally; base positions enduring volatility is normal.
$SOL (Position isolation, controlling risk exposure)
Average position price 117.41, current price 115.85.
Current unrealized loss 56.87U, return rate -26.93%. Margin rate 28.43%.
This trade once again proves the value of "position isolation." Although it followed the market correction, its liquidation line is at 112.90, very close. Are we completely blind to the real macro trend? 🤯
Everyone is panicking over $484M ETF outflows and a $82,500 BTC support test. But check the real chart:
While retail gets shaken out by 3% funding rate flushes, Corporate Treasury supply just hit an all-time low. Illiquid supply is screaming that a massive supply shock is being engineered right in front of us.
This isn't a dump. It's a massive wealth transfer.
Are you panic-selling to Wall Street, or are you buying their fear? 👇
$BTC #Crypto$CP
LOL, the official Twitter has been banned twice, and this is the third account!
The latest official Twitter still has a blue checkmark, at least use a gold checkmark, come on, so stingy.
- @OpenProtocolFND: about 26,200. This is currently the only account still posting announcements, registered in June, blue check verified.
- @cluster_korea: about 1,980. Korean community account, the profile links to the above account.
- @ClusterProtocol: no recent posts found, current follower count not readable. Previously captured data showed 0 followers, consistent with the "old account being suspended".
- @CodeXero_xyz: also no searchable posts, current follower count not readable, matches the community's report of suspension.
So the ones still active and matching the project are mainly the foundation account with about 26,000 followers and the Korean community account with about 2,000 followers. The two old brand accounts are currently inaccessible.Today's market showed an extremely extreme 20/80 split. BTC and SOL experienced significant pullbacks, but NEAR had a completely independent performance. The overall account is shrinking, but the position structure is still within my risk control model.
$BTC (Base position pullback, testing the defense boundary)
Average position price 84,044, current price 82,824.
Current unrealized loss 724.05U, return rate -29.46%.
BTC fell below 83,000, which is the main source of the account's pullback. But no trend goes straight up unilaterally; base positions enduring volatility is normal.
$SOL (Position isolation, controlling risk exposure)
Average position price 117.41, current price 115.85.
Current unrealized loss 56.87U, return rate -26.93%. Margin rate 28.43%.
This trade once again proves the value of "position isolation." Although it followed the market correction, its liquidation line is at 112.90, very close. #BTC spot ETF records the largest single-day net outflow in nearly three and a half months. This large redemption indicates that institutional funds that had been continuously entering the market are now cashing out collectively, signaling a short-term weakening of risk appetite. The core reason behind this is macro pricing: long-term U.S. Treasury yields remain high, the Fed's hawkish expectations are intensifying, and the rebound in oil prices is fueling inflation concerns. Institutions are choosing to reduce their high-volatility BTC exposure ahead of time.
It is important to distinguish: a large single-day outflow ≠ a complete trend reversal, but it is a significant warning. If it is just a one-time portfolio adjustment and net inflows quickly resume afterward, it can be understood as profit-taking; however, if continuous outflows persist over multiple days, it means incremental buying is fading, and the market previously supported by ETF funds will come under pressure, making the market more prone to volatility and weakness.
Capital sentiment will also transmit to the entire crypto sector, exerting linked pressure on ETH and various altcoins.
Going forward, focus on two points: first, whether continuous redemptions will form; second, whether U.S. Treasury yields and Fed-related expectations ease. Only with capital inflows can market confidence be restored. $BTC $ETH $ZEC