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"87,000 can't be broken, it's just distribution."
$BTC has repeatedly hit 87K but was pushed back each time. The more it repeatedly tempts bulls, the more it looks like distribution rather than a breakout.
Short-term remains bearish; if 87K is not broken, no chasing longs; $ETH is similarly pressured at 2,750–2,800, with the rebound considered a weak correction.
Wait for a real volume breakout before considering a change in direction.
#ThisWeekTheFedWillReleaseSeptemberMinutes
#BTC spot ETF inflows return, ETH funds continue outflows
#OKXNOW:24x7MarketEra
#FedSeptemberMinutes
#SolanaStocksTop4.4B $BTC is not lacking room to rise now, but rather a confirmation.
It has already touched $86,634 intraday, but is currently still fluctuating around $85,500.
A truly strong move is not just piercing $86,600, but breaking through and holding above it, then continuing to push toward $87,500.
If it fails to surpass $86,600 for a long time and instead falls below $85,100, then we need to re-examine the area around $84,500.
Before the key level is confirmed, any direction is just a guess.ETH smashed through 2700 straight down to 2610, dragging the altcoins down with it today
The real weak point today isn’t Bitcoin; Bitcoin is still struggling around 84000. Ethereum has already dropped -3% all the way down to 2612, with a 24-hour low of 2590. It broke through the 2700 psychological level it had been defending for days, and even the lower Bollinger Band at 2610 is barely holding.
Once it fell, the ecosystem below started a chain reaction of crashes. ARB, LDO, IMX—these L2 and DeFi tokens all started at -7%, and INJ dropped directly by -8.8%. It’s the classic scenario of ETH sneezing and the entire altcoin market catching a heavy cold.
My understanding is that this move is essentially a deleveraging after the good news has been priced in: with such poor non-farm payroll data and full expectations of easing, risk assets didn’t rise but fell instead. This indicates that the good news had been overbought earlier, and funds are now using the macro excuse to squeeze out long positions. The RSI has already hit around 20, which is oversold, but oversold conditions in a downtrend only allow for a small bounce and don’t indicate a bottom.
Next, watch two signals: one is whether the 2590 24-hour low can hold; if it breaks, the downside space will open up. The second is whether after the Fed minutes at 2 AM tonight, volume can push it back above 2625 or even 2700. If it can’t get back up, then a weak rebound should be treated as a window to reduce positions.
$ETH #Ethereum
Not investment advice, DYOR.Nearly $410 million liquidated across the entire network in the past hour, with long positions liquidated totaling $398 million. The largest single long liquidation was worth $26.64 million, an Ethereum long, and another long liquidation worth $11.74 million was Bitcoin. The pullback trend (5F downward segment) given in last night's evening class exceeded expectations~
$BTC #BTC whale sell pressure weakens, ETF funds see net inflow for three consecutive weeks
Glassnode data confirms that the trend of BTC whales net transferring to exchanges, which lasted for over 3 months, has officially ended. For a long time, whales continuously moved chips to exchanges, acting as a Damocles sword hanging over the market, with a constant potential sell pressure suppressing the market. Now this trend has reversed; whales no longer consistently move chips to exchanges, and the potential selling pressure has clearly eased.
On the other hand, institutional buying is continuously entering the market. According to SoSoValue statistics, the US Bitcoin spot ETF has recorded net weekly inflows for three consecutive weeks, with the most recent week seeing a net inflow of approximately $241 million.
On one side, whale selling momentum slows down and sell pressure decreases; on the other, ETF institutional funds keep entering to absorb supply. One decreases while the other increases, signaling a critical change in the capital flow.
However, it is important to view this objectively: this is merely a marginal improvement in the capital structure and does not mean the market will immediately start to rally. Whales stopping transfers to exchanges only means they are no longer actively preparing to sell, not that they are suddenly buying heavily; the ETF’s weekly inflow of $241 million is moderate, not a massive buying spree.
Whether the market can break out of its range still requires continuous monitoring of two points: whether whales begin net accumulation and whether ETF fund inflows can continue to expand. Market bottoms often form during this process of slowly clearing bearish factors and quietly accumulating buying power. The next wave for $BTC might depend on the $86,600 level.
The price is currently still around $85,500, with no clear breakout from the consolidation range.
For bulls to continue upward, they must first break through $86,600 and preferably hold above it after the breakout. If successful, $87,500-$88,000 will be the key short-term targets.
Conversely, if $85,100 doesn't hold, the next support to watch is $84,500.
So my current strategy is clear: follow the breakout upward, defend on the breakdown, and avoid chasing in the middle of the range.$ONE A round of emotional rally has ended, the main force is gradually unloading, I have positioned short orders at high levels, with a floating profit of 497.09%, continuing to hold with 10x leverage.
This type of small-cap coin's rise relies entirely on short-term capital inflows; once the funds withdraw, it is difficult to see a strong reversal.
Operation points: upper resistance at 0.0024, lower support at 0.0018.
Operation advice: take profits on short positions in batches and exit, do not close all positions at once. Consider light short additions if the rebound is weak, strictly with stop-loss; avoid long positions, bottom-fishing carries huge risks.
Small-cap contracts frequently experience spikes; leverage trading must strictly avoid heavy positions to maintain position safety baseline. $BTC $ETH $ETH touched 2800 but was immediately pushed back down, leaving the bulls in a bit of an awkward position now.
ETH has rallied from around 2400 to 2800 in this wave, and there is definitely capital buying in, but the problem is becoming increasingly clear: the sell pressure around 2800 is too heavy.
Several attempts to break through have failed to hold, and today it directly dropped to around 2600 with a noticeable increase in trading volume. Moreover, the futures market remains very active, with ETH futures trading about $30.2 billion in 24 hours, while spot trading is only $2.2 billion, and open interest is still at $34.1 billion.
ETFs are also starting to show divergence. From September 21 to 25, there were continuous large net inflows, with a peak single-day inflow of $270 million, but on October 1, 2, and 5, there were consecutive outflows, with $50.8 million flowing out again on the 5th.
The biggest issue for ETH now is that the price has already surged once, leverage remains, but spot buying momentum is weakening.
I wouldn’t turn bearish just because of this single drop, but the short-term outlook has clearly shifted from "continuing to push to 2800" to "first proving whether 2600 can hold." If 2600 holds, the bulls still have the right to push towards 2800; if 2600 breaks, this rally needs to be reassessed.$ETH short position, 100x leverage, entered at 2683.06, floating profit 259%. This trade is a standard swing operation. ETH oscillated between 2680-2750 for two days, then broke below 2683 with volume, so I decisively followed with a short.
Why use 100x? Because when Ethereum's trend is clear, the drop is fast; 100x leverage helps prevent stop hunting and allows capturing the breakout.
Now the mark price is 2613, close to the first target, I plan to reduce the position by half and move the stop loss of the remaining position to the entry price. For swing trading, you need to know how to take profits and hold positions. The target is 2500; if it breaks, continue, no greed, no fear. $BTC $ZEC #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 In the past 24h, $ETH total liquidations were about $177M, with long liquidations around $166M. On the $BTC side, the long-short liquidation ratio also shows a clear deleveraging trend. It seems the market thinks the previous rise was too fast, and as the price pulls back, the longs get hit first. Ajian does not see this as a signal of a bearish market shift; it's more likely that when longs move from "light position observation" to "high leverage trend confirmation," even a slight macro or capital flow weakness triggers a chain liquidation. Such liquidations can sometimes be part of the market becoming healthier again, because only when excessive leverage is cleared can spot buying more easily reprice, provided that $2.5K-$2.6K can reestablish support Sold, sold at the moment you most want to post on your Moments $WLD's initial surge created a large amount of short-term bubbles. Short positions were laid out by capturing reversal turning points at high levels. Currently, the short positions have an unrealized profit of 652.02%, held with 50x leverage, opening average price at 0.6035, mark price at 0.5248.
Short-term speculative sentiment is fading, bulls are taking profits in concentrated sell-offs, and the overhead trapped positions continue to exert pressure, causing the price to steadily decline.
Operation points: upper resistance at 0.55, lower support at 0.50.
Operation advice: take profits on short positions in batches to lock in gains.
If the rebound meets resistance at 0.55, you may lightly continue shorting with a stop loss at 0.562; bottom-fishing for longs is not recommended as downward pressure remains.
50x high leverage causes strong volatility, and the coin is prone to sudden spikes; be sure to operate with light positions and strictly adhere to risk control. $BTC $ETH #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Don't just focus on $BTC today; the four signals truly worth watching in the market are:
① Federal Reserve Minutes
The September meeting minutes will be released today, with the market focusing on inflation, employment, and rate cut divergences. If the wording leans hawkish, risk assets may come under pressure.
② HYPE Unlock
This round involves about 3.75 million tokens, roughly $330 million in scale, with reports that they were handed over OTC to a single institution. The key short-term focus is on subsequent selling pressure.
③ ETH Glamsterdam
The Sepolia testnet launched on October 6, and the upgrade narrative continues to heat up; whether ETH can hold 2650 and retest 2750 is the short-term focus.
④ Altcoin Unlock Wave
Multiple batches of tokens will still be released this week. Early October unlocks exceed $1 billion in scale, with altcoins continuing to face supply pressure and potential for increased divergence.
In short: first watch the Federal Reserve, then the direction of BTC, and finally observe whether ETH and HYPE can drive altcoins.
The longer the consolidation, the more likely volatility will amplify. Don’t rush to be led by short-term candlestick movements. $BTC $ETH#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要
Recent U.S. economic data shows clear divergence:
September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, unemployment rate rose, and the job market continues to cool; however, the ISM Services PMI Price Index rose to 74.0, with service sector inflation rising again. The core contradiction currently is "weakening employment + stubborn inflation."
The September FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 02:00 Beijing time on October 8. The market's key focus points are:
1. The committee's attitude toward inflation above the 2% target
2. Discussion on how long restrictive interest rates will be maintained
3. Whether there is still a possibility of further rate hikes
4. The trade-off regarding downside risks to employment
Currently, BTC and ETH have already experienced a pullback, with risk assets reacting early to risk aversion sentiment.
The policy inclination revealed in the minutes will directly determine the short-term direction of the crypto market: a hawkish signal will further suppress the market; if a rate cut expectation is signaled, it is expected to drive risk asset recovery.
Going forward, pay close attention to the degree of divergence in officials' views, as this will amplify market volatility. Risk control is essential in operations. Got schooled by the market again this morning.
Last week's review already said,
Don't open a supermarket in hard mode,
But I just didn't listen.
Last night I opened three positions (QNT, ZEC, DOGE, etc.),
This morning there was some floating profit,
Saw a small rebound in BTC,
So I went long again.
Well, I went long, so I went long.
Why open such a big position?
One big bearish candle,
Knocked me down,
Stop loss hurts so much!
This time again is the moment to test discipline.Strange, the US stock market hits new highs, and a whale has hoarded 87,000 $BTC, so why isn't it rising?
Keep in mind, there's been a net increase of 86,702 $BTC over three weeks, with holdings reaching a new high since late April. The last time this happened, BTC soared.
Gold $XAUT peaked in January and then dropped 26%, while BTC has rebounded over 40% from the June low, indicating investors are treating BTC as a risk asset.
Under these circumstances, BTC should be more tightly correlated with the Nasdaq, so it should have risen yesterday.
Technical: The triangle convergence is approaching the apex, 85,000 is the MA7/14 combined support, 86,700-87,000 is a continuous resistance selling zone; yesterday's liquidations of 154 million long and short positions were almost evenly split, showing no market consensus.
Everyone, pay attention to the wording of tonight's minutes. I feel there is still some chance for a rise, so don't rush to jump the gun.
If it breaks below 83,500, I'll consider this rebound topped out and reduce positions to exit; if it breaks above 87,200, then this wave isn't over yet, and we can look toward the 89,300 area. $BTC quickly fell below the $84,000 mark in a short time, with a 24-hour drop of over 2%, reaching a low of $83,500.
The sharp decline triggered massive forced liquidations. In the past hour, the total liquidation amount across the network approached $410 million, with long position liquidations reaching as high as $398 million, accounting for over 97%. The largest single liquidation was an Ethereum long position worth $26.64 million.
Cause analysis: triple pressure combined
1. Technical aspect
Bitcoin failed its third attempt to break the $87,000 integer level and retreated, breaking the previous on-chain support zone defended by buyers. As the leader, BTC's pullback triggered overall selling pressure. Due to a higher beta coefficient, $ETH plunged 3.78% from its high within 24 hours, a significantly larger drop than BTC's 1.2% in the same period.
2. Macro aspect
· Capital rotation to AI stocks: Market funds are flowing from crypto assets to AI-related stocks. Despite Nvidia, the AI leader, having declined for several consecutive days, funds continue to tilt towards it.
· Weakened rate cut expectations: Strong labor market data and rising energy prices have reduced market expectations for a near-term Fed rate cut.
3. Market sentiment
After the price broke key support, exchanges automatically liquidated leveraged long positions, and forced sell orders further pushed prices down, triggering more liquidations and forming an accelerating downward cycle. Long positions dominated about $384 million of liquidations, indicating that the previous bullish market sentiment was "crowded and fragile".
$SOL That one is real — good catch at 1 AM. Infinex did announce on Oct 4 integrating NEAR Chain Signatures and NEAR Intents, adding BTC, DOGE, XRP access through one interface without separate bridges/wallets. 41d7 And NEAR Intents itself does connect 31 chains and 100+ assets — so your line "previously only transfers and tipping, now can work across 31 chains" is accurate in spirit. It's not Infinex building 31 bridges, it's routing via NEAR's chain-abstraction layer. 41d7 Your take is spot on: priThe era of major L2 collapses has arrived. Just a couple of days ago, Blast announced its shutdown, and today we see the announcement of Penguin Chain Abstract ceasing operations.
It is foreseeable that Penguin Chain will not be the last L2 to collapse. I checked all L2s' 24-hour revenue using surf and found that Penguin Chain surprisingly ranks sixth among all L2s, with OP, ZK, and Linea all ranking lower.
At present, only Base, PoL, RH, and Arb seem relatively safe; other chains face the risk of collapse. For the brothers holding tokens of these chains, the first priority is to be aware of the risks—sell when you should.The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for the 23rd consecutive month
According to the latest central bank data, gold reserves reached 77.47 million ounces at the end of September, an increase of 740,000 ounces month-on-month, marking 23 continuous months of gold accumulation. This is not short-term speculation but a long-term strategy for diversifying national foreign reserves, aimed at spreading single currency risk, hedging geopolitical and exchange rate fluctuations, and valuing gold's safe-haven properties.
My view: Multiple central banks worldwide are simultaneously continuing to buy gold. The underlying logic is de-dollarization and reserve restructuring, providing long-term support for gold prices. However, it should be clear that central banks are long-term investors; they will not stop or aggressively increase holdings based on short-term gold price fluctuations. This news does not mean gold prices will surge immediately.
For the crypto market, a stronger gold market indicates that safe-haven funds prefer hard assets. In the long term, this will resonate emotionally with BTC's "digital gold" narrative. But the short-term market focus remains on U.S. Treasury yields and inflation data. Do not heavily leverage or open contracts based solely on this news. Maintain low leverage and avoid chasing news-driven market moves.
Key points to watch: U.S. Treasury yield trends, global central bank gold purchasing pace, and changes in geopolitical conflicts.
What do you think? Will central banks' continued gold accumulation keep driving strength in the hard asset sector? $XAU Half an hour into the morning, it dropped 1,700, $BTC broke out of the three-day consolidation range.
Current market conditions show BTC at $83,867, down 2.1% in 24 hours.
At 9:45 it was still at $85,296, before hitting a low of $83,577 just before 10:15.
The closing prices for the previous three days were all between $85,200 and $85,800; this time it broke through yesterday's low of $84,980 and the October 4 low of $84,550 in one go.
The 1-hour candle at 9 o'clock closed at $84,388, already below the two lows.
This drop was actually premeditated.
Since October 2, the highs have dropped from $87,238 to $86,994, then down to $86,694.
On October 6, Bitcoin ETF net outflows were 1,059 units, and Fed's Daly said further tightening might be needed.
No one is buying at the highs; the first to be sold off are leveraged long positions.
By around 10 o'clock in the 1-hour period, the total liquidations across the network were about $370 million, with BTC accounting for $102 million.
Looking below, first watch the October 1 low of $83,169.
The daily candle closed below $84,550, breaking this consolidation range; further down is the September 28 low of $82,557.
A rebound back above $84,980 would mean this morning's drop is recovered.$ETH just took a dive that might be even more worrisome than $BTC!
Around 10 o'clock, ETH suddenly accelerated its decline, following BTC's rapid drop from the highs. What’s really worth noting is that ETH’s recent capital flow has actually been weakening continuously.
The latest data shows that the US spot ETH ETF has seen net outflows for 5 consecutive trading days, with about $50.76 million outflow on October 5 alone, and a total outflow of approximately $206 million over the past 5 days. Institutional funds are steadily withdrawing, significantly weakening the buying support for ETH.
At the same time, active selling in the derivatives market is also increasing. Recent market data indicates that ETH’s leverage ratio has dropped to about a 7-month low, but sellers remain quite aggressive. In other words, this is not just retail panic; spot funds are retreating while contract funds are deleveraging simultaneously.
This also explains why when BTC just plunged, ETH’s volatility was further amplified.
I’m not in a hurry to judge whether ETH has peaked yet; the key is whether it can quickly reclaim the level it just broke below. If BTC stabilizes and ETH can rapidly recover its losses, this might just be a leverage washout; but if the rebound remains weak and ETF outflows continue, short-term pressure on ETH may not be fully relieved.
What do you think— is ETH currently undergoing a washout, or are funds really starting to withdraw? At this level, would you dare to buy in? #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 🔷 ETF $ETH : outflow $37M, Citi target $3,028
• Friday: $37M outflow from Ethereum ETF
• ETHA: record $20M outflow in one day
• Since the beginning of October: outflow of ~$93M
• Last week: outflow of ~$138M
• Citi: 12-month target $3,028 (+12%)
• Average entry price: $3,300 (+22% from current)
• BitMine: 5.07M ETH ($13.8B), staking $363M/year
• CFTC: rules for leveraged trading
🧠 Issue: average entry price $3,300 (+22%) = selling pressure
❓ Will it overcome the outflow pressure?👇Sell-off wave + coin theft scandal double hit! $SOL hemorrhaged 1.4 billion, short position layout above 120 rebound is timely
Direction: Short
Entry range: 120.0–121.5
Take profit target: Around 114.0
Personal view: SOL's previous high at 124.99 has long resisted breakthrough, ecosystem negative news continues; trader Frogman's wallet was stolen with about 4 million USD assets, exchanged into ETH, BNB, and SOL then dispersed and transferred, market confidence shaken; capital flow score -87, 15-day net outflow of 1.444 billion, bears dominate, rebound likely to face pressure.
Position basis: Net outflow across 1D to 15D, over 970 million outflow in 12h; heavy short liquidations concentrated at 122-125 resistance but difficult to break through, light short positions at 120.0–121.5 resistance zone on rebound, target 116.0–114.0. #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 Big Brother Maji just reshuffled a $151M whale portfolio 👀
$BTC increased from 409 → 456 coins, adding 47 below $85K, while $ETH remains the biggest position at 34,100 coins.
BTC is now profitable, but the heavy leverage still makes this a high-risk setup. Watch the whale, but don’t blindly follow. #BTC #ETH
#NvidiaRecordHigh #MicronAIMemoryOutlook Yi Lihua: Bitcoin Has Not Broken Key Levels, Altcoins Have Fully Retraced
Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital, wrote an analysis of the current market. He had previously warned about the risk of a retracement. His view is clear: $BTC has not yet broken key support, but the altcoin sector has already started a full retracement.
He mentioned that a month ago he predicted BTC would face a retracement near 86,000. Most of the bull market is a consolidation phase; sharp rallies are only brief stages. There is no market that only rises without falling. Even if this retracement is relatively large, it is a normal pullback within the bull market. He advises against frequent trading and not forcing to catch every move, but to save ammunition and wait for high-certainty opportunities.
My view: This is a typical bull market divergence, with Bitcoin resisting declines while altcoins lead the sell-off. Capital is first withdrawing from high-volatility altcoins and flowing back into BTC for safety.
At this stage, do not blindly bottom-fish altcoins in futures contracts. Once altcoin sell-offs start, their declines will far exceed BTC’s. Focus closely on BTC’s key support; if Bitcoin breaks down, altcoins will face a secondary crash. Control leverage, reduce frequent order openings, and patiently wait for stabilization signals.
What do you think? Is this altcoin retracement a short-term shakeout or the end of the market rotation?$ETH
At the current position, my view on ETH remains bearish.
From the 4-hour timeframe, the price has been oscillating around 2695 for a long time but has never truly stabilized above 2700. There is noticeable resistance around 2704–2725, especially near 2720, where previous rallies quickly fell back, indicating significant selling pressure there.
Looking at the 15-minute timeframe, the trend is even clearer. After ETH broke below around 2682, it rebounded to 2699 but quickly pulled back again, showing some support below but persistent selling pressure above.
So, I won’t chase longs right now.
If the price rebounds to the 2698–2705 range, consider looking for short opportunities with a stop loss above 2712. On the downside, first watch the 2686–2682 support; if 2682 is effectively broken, the next target could be around 2665.
Of course, if ETH can break out with volume above 2705 and truly hold that level, I will immediately adjust my view. Then, the upside could continue to 2725 or even 2750.
In summary:
Failure to hold above 2705 → continue bearish bias;
Break below 2682 → further downside space opens;
Volume breakout and hold above 2705 → bearish view invalidated, shift focus to 2725–2750.
The most important thing now is not to guess the direction but to wait for key levels to be confirmed Bitcoin is dropping sharply with high volume, do not catch the falling knife ⚠️
🟢 Trading plan:
Direction: Long
Condition: 1-hour candle closes back above 83900
😭 Stop loss: 83500
🎯 Take profit: 85500-87400
Otherwise, wait for a drop near 82800, observe price action before entering
If conditions are not met, stay out and wait, do not bottom-fish prematurelyOnly those who are truly short sellers pay special attention to one detail: market sentiment and funding rates.
Currently, the Fear and Greed Index has reached 73, which is clearly in the greed zone, and the market generally believes there is still room for the price to rise.
But if you look at the funding rates, the situation is not that extreme. Most assets maintain a mild positive funding rate, with no obvious signs of excessive crowding. The market movement over the past day has mostly been shorts being continuously squeezed out.
What does this indicate?
Although sentiment is somewhat heated, leverage has not been wildly accumulated, and the market has not yet reached a state of extreme long crowding.
For shorts, this is actually a rather delicate position.
The awkward part is that there is currently a lack of sufficiently clear top signals, so you cannot simply judge the market peak based on elevated sentiment alone.
But the comfortable part is here—there is no need to rush into shorting.
As long as the market has not shown extreme position concentration, it is difficult for an out-of-control short squeeze to occur, which would instantly put huge pressure on shorts.
Therefore, regarding the short plan for $ETH, I currently prefer to wait rather than hastily increase positions.
What truly deserves focused attention is when market sentiment further pushes to extremes, funding rates noticeably heat up, and leverage begins to severely crowd.
Before that signal appears, be patient.
Don’t chase shorts, don’t get carried away, wait for the opportunity that truly belongs to the shorts.The scarcity of DOGE is hidden in the corners of on-chain data. The nominal circulating supply is about 156 billion coins, but after excluding the portion that can never be accessed, the real tradable supply might only be between 110 to 130 billion.
On-chain archaeology provides three clues. First is the exchange graveyard: In 2016, Cryptsy's collapse took away about 1.3 to 1.6 billion DOGE, and in 2014, MintPal was hacked resulting in a loss of about 120 million coins. These coins lie in wallets with no claimants, with private keys lost along with the platforms. Second are dormant addresses: A large number of mining addresses from 2013 to 2014 have had no outgoing transactions for ten years, and the corresponding hard drives or paper wallets have long been discarded or lost. Third are zombie accounts: Tens of thousands of old addresses that only receive but never send coins, with no one able to prove the owner still remembers the private key.
Adding these up, the estimated loss rate of early supply falls between 15% and 25%. Structurally, it is even more critical: $DOGE adds about 5.26 billion coins annually, with the inflation rate diluted year by year as the total supply grows, but lost coins never return. The nominal unlimited issuance corresponds to the continuous accumulation of supply loss. The market prices DOGE at 156 billion, but the actual circulating chips are much tighter. This gap between the book value and reality means DOGE's long-term scarcity narrative is underestimated—understanding this is more useful than focusing on short-term fluctuations. $BTC is lagging behind, others rise but it doesn't
On October 7, $BTC was around $85,700.
US stocks hit new highs, gold strengthened, it dipped slightly by 0.15%.
What does this number mean:
The second time in a week it tried to reach 87,000 but failed.
Just $500 short of the late September high of 87,400.
Where did this money come from:
Since October 1, whales have increased holdings by 14,335 coins.
Working backwards, about $1.22 billion.
87,000 above is a threshold, 85,000 below has been repeatedly confirmed.
Moving averages are still bullish, the structure is intact.
Failing to break through means someone is continuously selling at this price.
Who the seller is doesn't matter, what matters is they haven't finished selling yet.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入
#Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC Citi recently raised its 12-month ETH forecast to $3,028, citing stronger crypto activity, macro conditions and renewed ETF inflows—but that’s a longer-term forecast, not today’s target. Many people still dismiss DOGE as "infinite inflation," but they overlook one detail: it has a fixed annual issuance of 5 billion coins, and the larger the supply, the lower the inflation rate. The current circulating supply has exceeded 150 billion coins, diluting the new issuance to just over 3%, and this number will only continue to decline.
More importantly, there is loss. Every year, a batch of coins is permanently lost due to forgotten private keys or damaged hard drives, estimated to be between 1 to 2 billion coins, nearly one-third of the new issuance. With coins lost and issued, DOGE's actual inflation may only be between 2% and 2.5%.
To put this into perspective: the US dollar M2 has maintained a higher expansion rate for years, and many emerging market fiat currencies still have double-digit annual inflation rates. DOGE's purchasing power curve is actually much smoother.
Mild inflation combined with passive deflation—this combination was not designed by any committee, yet $DOGE unintentionally approaches what economists call an "ideal currency": predictable supply and a floor to depreciation. For holders, what really needs attention may not be the issuance, but the underestimated power of the rules themselves. 🧧🧧🧧 Why are my hands so itchy! $ETH is still a bit high at this position… @OKX星球
24-hour liquidation data shows bulls are facing concentrated liquidations but have not yet entered a stage of complete despair.
✅ Liquidation data: - Total BTC liquidations 54,370,400, long liquidations 39,490,800, 2.6 times that of shorts
- Total ETH liquidations 22,011,600, long liquidations 14,257,000, significant selling pressure from bulls
- Total SOL liquidations 5,425,400, long liquidations 4,004,900, bulls suffering greater losses
Market rhythm: 4–12 hours is the main window for stop-loss sweeps, many long holders bottom-fishing are liquidated; 1-hour level liquidation scale is clearly contracting, short-term panic momentum is gradually weakening.
Core logic: The more thoroughly high-leverage long positions are cleared at high levels, the lighter the selling pressure on the market. Currently, it is just prioritizing clearing long leverage, not a one-sided continuous decline. After leverage positions are digested, the market is expected to catch a breather.
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 $BTC $ZEC BTC vs ZEC: transparency vs privacy, two answers to the same problem. BTC posts every transaction on a public ledger pseudonymous, but traceable.
ZEC hides sender, receiver, and amount via zk-SNARKs. Its shielded pool now holds 5.16M ZEC (31% of supply), and shielded transactions hit 59.3% of all activity in Feb 2026.
The NU7 upgrade cuts block times from 75s to 25s on Nov 5. Which model wins?
$BTC $ZEC The National Day holiday is coming to an end, and BTC's current volatility has yet to show a clear direction.
$BTC is around 85.8K, with obvious resistance near 87K; multiple attempts to break higher have been pushed back. In the short term, I prefer to sell high within the range and will not chase longs until it firmly holds above 87K; support is first expected near 84.5K. Recently, the US 10Y Treasury yield remains around 5.3%, so macro pressure has not fully eased.
$ETH is around 2.7K, with resistance near 2750 as well. Whether it can break through following BTC is key.
$OKB, on the other hand, has shown independent strength, recently surging to around $139, with noticeably increased capital attention.
The first wave of the post-holiday market will focus on whether BTC can truly hold above 87K.
This is my personal review for reference only; please pay attention to stop losses and DYOR.$BTC's recent drop! Quite severe! Nearly $2000 down in one hour! Oversold, is it time to bottom-fish?
No, no, no!
I think it's still too early to bottom-fish now! Because based on one data point, I believe the reasoning is not sufficient.
BTC OI: 29.91K!
With the price plummeting, normally the OI should also drop accordingly! But overall it hasn't fallen much, indicating that leveraged funds haven't been cleared out yet.
So, judging oversold conditions and bottom-fishing purely based on RSI at this position, I think the argument is somewhat unconvincing.
The lower boundary at 83,500 is the Donchian lower band, which will form a strong support here. If this level holds and the price rises above 84,000, with OI declining simultaneously, that would be my favorite structural change, because in that case, this round of decline is just short covering.
However, if it breaks below 83,500 and OI does not decrease, that is a dangerous signal! I really do not recommend bottom-fishing then, because new OI entries are likely shorts, which can easily lead to a second liquidation.
Now it depends on how 83,500 is confirmed! If it holds, watch OI changes; if it doesn't, watch volume.
If there is a volume-driven drop, then look further down to the strong support previously formed at 82,800.
If that level is also broken, it is very likely to enter a deep retracement phase, with breaking 80,000 being a high probability. After all, there are too many long positions with profits, and for the market to rise further, they will become a significant resistance!
It's a simple reality: a large number of long profit-takers, selling to take profits once, and shorts selling again! To stabilize the price, double the capital is needed to absorb the selling. Therefore, a deep retracement that washes out many profit positions and raises the average holding cost is more conducive to the price breaking upward to higher levels again!
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only! 最近看到一组数据，市场的一个变化值得关注：鲸鱼向交易所转币的行为明显降温，而美国现货 BTC ETF 已经连续三周出现资金净流入。 Glassnode 数据显示，此前持续了三个多月的“鲸鱼向交易所净转入”趋势已经结束。简单来说，就是过去那些频繁把 BTC 转进交易所、存在潜在卖出意图的大资金，现在明显减少了这类操作。 与此同时，截至10月2日，美国现货 BTC ETF 已连续三周录得净流入，上周大约流入 2.41 亿美元。 一边是鲸鱼卖压减轻，另一边是机构资金持续进场，从资金流向来看，市场环境确实正在往相对积极的方向变化。 不过，这里有两个重点需要注意： 第一，卖压减弱 ≠ 新一轮疯狂买盘出现。 鲸鱼减少向交易所转币，只能说明潜在抛售压力下降，并不能直接证明这些大资金已经开始大规模买入。 ETF虽然连续三周净流入，但上周约2.41亿美元的规模，相比过去单日接近10亿美元级别的流入仍然算不上特别强。 所以目前这个信号偏利好，但还不足以单独支撑一轮大级别上涨。 第二，短线压力有所缓解，但别急着期待直接起飞。 卖方压力下降，意味着 BTC 下方的承接环境可能会更稳定，82,000美元附近的支Brother Maji's operations these days are simply legendary!
He precisely escaped the top at high levels and dared to decisively enter at low levels, with the total open position fluctuating between 141 million and 165 million, making this wave's rhythm very worthy of review 📊
$BTC
Initially holding 536 coins, with a slight loss, then decisively reducing to 369 coins, perfectly escaping the top.
After the market warmed up, he made a big increase back to 546 coins, then reduced again to 405 coins to realize profits.
Latest holding is 378 coins, average holding price 84,700, liquidation price 66,000, the long-short rhythm is very well timed.
$ETH
Latest holding is 36,500 coins, average holding price 2688, liquidation price 2500, but the funding fee is a bit risky, reaching 1.23 million USD.
It would be good if one day he comes to $CORE to short as well 😅😅😅
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 The entire market is waiting for the Fed minutes on the 8th, but the real big money may have already been positioning quietly, while on the surface it looks calm.
Retail investors are currently almost entirely focused on the midnight release of the minutes on the 8th, worried about changes in rate cut expectations, so they dare not enter the market easily and have even started concentrated shorting to hedge.
But the current market situation is somewhat unusual:
BTC has been oscillating narrowly around $85,400 for a long time, while ETH is basically holding near $2,700, with overall volatility even compressed below 0.3%.
This movement is like being supported by a "steel plate" underneath; even after the violent fluctuations caused by the non-farm payroll data, the price has not clearly broken downwards.
From the market performance, big money may not be waiting on the sidelines but is using this calm before the storm to slowly wear down market patience, accumulating positions through high-frequency order placements and repeated trades within a narrow range, while clearing out weak short-term positions.
Everyone is now waiting for the "boot to drop," but the more the market waits in unison, the more cautious one should be about a sudden upward breakout before the news actually lands.
My target expectations:
BTC: $88,000
ETH: $3,000
Key defense levels:
BTC: $83,000
ETH: $2,400
If the price subsequently breaks below the corresponding defense levels effectively, the strategy fails; cut losses and exit promptly, do not stubbornly fight the market.
#ThisWeekTheFedWillReleaseSeptemberMinutesWhy the big drop? Three words: money left.
On the same day, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both hit record highs, gold rose above $4,169, and oil prices fell below 100 — risk assets are celebrating, but the crypto circle is left out. The AI concept's benefits were fully absorbed by the US stock market; Bitcoin has no earnings report, no narrative, and can only watch.
ETFs have also shifted: ARKB saw a single-day net outflow of 85.2 million, while BlackRock's IBIT is the only major buyer (+69.9 million).
The deeper rope is interest rates. Although the 10-year US Treasury yield fell from 5.33% to 5.26%, it remains at a 24-year high — with risk-free returns above 5%, who still wants to hold non-yielding coins overnight?
Plus, with the Fed minutes coming tonight, no one dares to add positions before the direction is clear.
Good news: whales have scooped up 14,335 BTC since October 1. Holding the 83,000–85,000 range is a shakeout; breaking it would be truly ugly.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 目前我的观点依旧偏空，也想再给各位空头一点信心。我在 86600 附近的空单已经拿了两天，结合现在的盘面，我的判断主要有以下几点： 1、向上突破，反而可能是诱多 目前 BTC 走的是一个逐渐收敛的三角结构，按照技术形态来说，理论上向上突破的概率并不低。 结合前面第一次触及 87300 附近的位置来看，现在已经进入三角收敛的第 15 天，距离结构末端大概还有 6 天。 所以接下来这几天，不排除突然出现一波快速拉升，甚至冲到 88800—92000 一带，然后再迎来一轮快速回落。 这也是我目前比较倾向的剧本：先拉后杀，先制造突破预期，再完成反向下跌。 2、越接近三角末端，越要防突然下杀 最近两天大家应该都能明显感觉到，BTC 的震荡区间正在不断缩窄，波动越来越小。 这种长时间压缩，往往意味着大行情正在酝酿。 所以现在最忌讳的就是每天在这个小区间里来回追多追空，刚做多就跌，刚做空又拉。 真正的突破一旦出现，可能就是直接走出一根大行情，根本不给你反复上下车的机会。 尤其是越接近三角形末端，越要提防突然出现的快速下跌。 3、为什么我依旧偏空？ 换个角度，从主力的思维去理解现在的盘面。 前一轮 B$PONS is a half-baked project. The project team is like a headless fly running around, constantly changing the game rules and protocol mechanisms whenever they get an idea. They always think that just because they started a stall selling spicy strips and made a lot of money, they are invincible kings who can just rebrand and cater to capital for compliance. They believe that improving hygiene and selling organic burgers with fancy, high-end ingredients will get them into the big leagues, but unfortunately, all the customers who used to line up to buy spicy strips have completely disappeared. In a brutal battlefield like Launchpad, where traffic is sovereignty, any innovation that cannot bring sustained user and transaction growth—no matter how grand the technical narrative—is doomed to be rejected by users and become worthless from the market's actual demand perspective...The selling pressure on $BTC is easing, but it's not yet time for a full bullish outlook.
Glassnode data shows that the trend of whales transferring coins to exchanges has weakened after several months; meanwhile, BTC spot ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive weeks, about $241 million last week.
This indicates two things:
Selling pressure is decreasing, but it doesn't mean whales have started buying aggressively.
ETFs continue to attract funds, which is somewhat positive for support levels below, but the strength is not yet enough to drive a major bull market.
In the short term, BTC's support around 82K may be more stable, but to break through 85K–86K, genuine incremental capital needs to enter.
So right now, it looks more like a buildup rather than a takeoff.
#OKXNOW:24x7MarketEra
#FedSeptemberMinutes
#MicronAIMemoryOutlook The stop loss was hit by just 0.00001, but I held on and moved the stop loss up today.
Today's movement of SAND confirmed a saying: "If the stop loss isn't triggered, it will definitely rise."
My long position cost is 0.06695, with a stop loss set at 0.0648. After a whole day of fluctuations, the price dropped to a low of 0.06481, just 0.00001 away from my stop loss. I was indeed very nervous at that moment, but I didn't manually close the position because I knew: if this level is true support, it won't break; if it breaks, the stop loss will take me out.
As a result, the price rose as expected in the morning session, breaking the previous high.
But then the major coins suddenly plunged, with $BTC $ETH $ZEC all diving, and my position started to hesitate. At this point, I made a decision: move the stop loss from 0.0648 up to 0.0677 to lock in profits and ensure this trade won't lose money.
The logic now is simple:
· If SAND can "stand out alone" and continue to rise, I hold the profits and watch the previous high.
· If dragged down by the major coins, the stop loss at 0.0677 will take me out at breakeven, so I won't lose.
The hardest part of trading is not just picking the right direction, but holding through the fluctuations and actively defending when risk comes.
Waiting quietly for the flowers to bloom. 🎪 Wednesday Morning Circus: Three Small Coins Each Playing Their Own Role
$HYPE 93.237, performing as the tightrope walker. It climbed from 88 to 93 in two days, with 97% of revenue used for buybacks holding the floor. It lingered at 93 for two days with no sell-off, indicating buyers are holding below. The 95 wall hasn't been tested yet; only when it is will we know how strong it is. Don't rush to sell or chase this morning, wait for direction.
$DOGE 0.09586, playing the clown. Just 4% away from 0.1, the meme coin's momentum blew for two days then stopped. Whether 0.095 holds will decide if it can reach 0.1 this week; if not, it will drop back to 0.093 to continue performing. Don't take meme coins too seriously, just watch.
$ASTER 0.7394, acting as the mime. A decentralized perpetual contract DEX, it follows the market rebound but lacks independent momentum. 0.75 is a hurdle; if it passes, look to 0.8, if not, it will keep grinding. Liquidity is average this morning, avoid placing orders to prevent being stopped out.
#BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 Three small coins this morning: HYPE aiming for 95, DOGE eyeing 0.1, ASTER grinding at 0.75. Don't get ahead of yourself before the meeting minutes, avoid trading this morning.Today, as soon as I opened it, I saw $ETH dipping to 2600. Yesterday I said there was no support except 2650, and it looks like the 2650 support was easily broken.
Don't rush to buy the dip yet; this drop is not enough to end most long profit-taking or low-leverage long players.
If you want to bottom-fish, you should do so with a light position.
If the bulls have no intention to defend 2600, then tomorrow it will definitely test 2550.
At that time, see if the bulls will have a wick to retest; you can gradually buy long between 2530~2550.
Stop loss at 2520.
#OKXNOW：开启全天候市场新时代 #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC巨鲸抛压减弱，ETF资金连续三周净流入 别急着说山寨季来了，这波更像一次很挑食的偏好试探。 你看到的强势，是真扩散，还是只集中在少数名字上？ BTC 在 84.6K 附近横着，ETH 贴着 2.68K，SOL 在 119.5 上下慢慢走强。表面看是大哥稳住、二哥和三弟接力，但我更在意的是：这轮并没有全面开花，涨势偏温和，成交量也没给出很夸张的确认。也就是说，市场现在交易的不是"风险偏好全面回归"，而是"愿不愿意为少数高弹性资产多付一点溢价"。 偏多的路径其实不复杂：BTC 只要不跌回区间下沿，ETH 和 SOL 继续跑赢，就会让场外资金产生一种错失感，先回流到主流，再慢慢外溢到有叙事、有生态、有交易深度的板块。SOL 的强势尤其关键，它代表的是高风险偏好的那一端有没有真的醒过来。如果它能在 120 上方站稳，同时 ETH 守住 2.6K 中段，山寨的情绪会明显比现在更敢做。 但风险也藏在这里。BTC 横盘不代表安全，它可能只是把波动让给了别人。一旦 BTC 向下破位，ETH 和 SOL 现在的相对强势很容易被解读成"补跌前的最后一跳"。而且这轮涨幅本身不大，没有放量突破之前，所谓板块轮动更像存量资金在挑位置，不是增量资金在铺Many new projects immediately claim they will surpass Ethereum. But building a complete ecosystem is not just about copying code; community and trust are the hardest to replicate. $ETH $BTC I'm preparing to short around 85,400.
Not expecting a crash, but betting on a short-term pullback.
In recent days, the 86,400–86,800 range has seen multiple attempts to rally suppressed, with a high of 87,239, indicating selling pressure above.
Now back near 85,459, short-term momentum is starting to weaken.
If 85,000 breaks → look at 84,000, then 83,100; if volume picks up and it climbs back above 86,800 → cut losses immediately.
I'm increasingly reluctant to guess the top, waiting for the market to give a signal before acting.
Repeated pullbacks near 87K—do you think it's building strength for a breakout, or is high-level capital starting to take profits?
#OKXNOW:24x7MarketEra
#FedSeptemberMinutes
#SolanaStocksTop4.4B