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Many people think that once an asset is "on-chain," it's considered a success, but that's actually just the first step.
The real challenge lies in the subsequent steps:
Whether it can be counted as client assets by futures brokers, accepted as collateral by clearinghouses, and included within banks' regulatory capital frameworks.
Currently, discussions in the U.S. have delved deeply into backend processes like client fund management, collateral, and capital measurement, indicating that tokenization is evolving from "being visible in a wallet" to "being included on the balance sheet."
The gap between these two stages is the true entry barrier for institutional capital.
To assess the prospects of an RWA project, it's more reliable to see how far it has progressed in these backend processes than to look at how many tokens it has issued.The main structure has topped out, but the curtain wall anchor points are failing—$IMX right now is like a building that must immediately have a stop-work sign hung.
A 24-hour rise of 3.56% looks like another floor was added on top, but when I flipped to the last page of the structural calculation book: the short-term RSI has climbed to 68.2, right at the overbought warning zone, and the 1-hour level has directly triggered a sell signal; the mid-term RSI is only 52.8, and the two load stages are completely out of sync in vibration mode. What does this mean? The upper floors are desperately adding more construction, while the lower shear walls show no response—a typical eccentric stress condition. When the wind load presses down, the cantilever end will collapse first.
The Bollinger Bands make it even clearer: the short-term price has already reached 111% within the band, with only 0.3% clearance left at the upper band, meaning the steel beam has hit the red line; another 0.3% up and it will hit the wall; the lower band still has a 3.4% buffer. The mid-term price is at 89%, with only 0.5% clearance at the upper band and 4.4% buffer at the lower band. Both models give the same conclusion: the upward structural margin has been completely consumed, and the live load on the floor is fully pressing on the most unfavorable span.
My handling plan: do not chase the high, wait for a first pullback to the design elevation before taking action.
📉 Short:
Entry: 0.13 (current price +2.7%)
Take Profit 1: 0.12 (-6.2%)
Take Profit 2: 0.12 (-4.2%)
Stop Loss: 0.14 (+13.2%)
The stop loss leaves a 13.2% buffer from the current price, which I deliberately set as a seismic joint—because the short-term RSI hasn’t truly broken 70 yet, the main force could still add another floor to lure buyers. But as long as the risk exposure is kept within the structural allowable stress, this pullback is a clean window for dismantling and modification.
What truly determines the project’s value is never drawn on the renderings. The white paper is just a design drawing; there are plenty of people who can make it look pretty. What decides whether this building can stand for twenty years is the foundation depth, the reinforcement ratio of the load-bearing walls, the concrete curing records, and the construction discipline of the development team. I recognize $IMX’s ecological blueprint, but the reinforcement ratio on this current floor cannot support the current elevation.
If the elevation doesn’t match, then dismantle.$DOGE REJECTED AT 0.10589 — AND IT SHOWS.
After tapping that high, price dropped fast and now sits at 0.09525, down 0.56% today. Weekly gain holds at +8.90%, 90-day up 27.83%. That wick taught me rejections punish latecomers hard. Is this consolidation building a base, or a pause before more downside?
#CostcoBeatsMicronNext UNI and ARB just got hit as the market pulled back ~3%. My take: $UNI looks more like a market-driven pullback. Strong DEX positioning + fee generation give it a clearer fundamental story. $ARB is different. The ecosystem remains important, but token unlocks can add extra supply pressure and make the downside more violent. I’m not blindly buying red candles. I’d rather see support hold + volume return + BTC stabilize before adding risk. UNI = watch the fundamentals. ARB = watch the supply. #UNI #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ 🤔
On the surface, this seems contradictory. Textbooks say that rate hikes drain liquidity, risk-free yields soar, and non-yielding assets like BTC should collapse. But in reality, BTC has indeed held firm around 83,000 instead of crashing.
Why? Three fundamental logics have changed.
First, the buying structure this time is different. Now BTC is backed by ETFs, corporate treasuries, and national strategic reserves. These funds buy coins not for short-term speculation but to hedge sovereign currency credit risk. With US debt surpassing 40 trillion and growing, it actually strengthens BTC’s long-term narrative.
Second, the market has priced this in advance. Rate hike expectations have been speculated on for over half a year; the leverage that needed to exit has already done so, leaving more stable holders. After the negative news landed, the panic was less than expected.
Third, selling pressure from miners and long-term holders is very light. On-chain dormant supply has hit a record high, with large amounts of BTC locked in cold wallets not participating in circulation. The actual tradable supply is much less than before.
But resilience does not mean an immediate surge.
Rate hike pressure remains, US Treasury yields are still high, and no large off-exchange capital is entering aggressively. The market will likely consolidate sideways to digest this. Spot holders with base positions should hold steady; contract traders shouldn’t go heavy long just because of “resilience.” Until a clear direction emerges, sudden spikes will teach a lesson.
BTC’s resilience is a good thing, but don’t mistake resilience for fuel. ⚖️
Do you think BTC can withstand this rate hike cycle?👇$BTC Cross-chain bridges get hacked, and in the end, the project team and the bridge team sue each other in court. Is this new?
Not new.
But what's interesting this time is that KelpDAO directly sued LayerZero and its co-founders together.
To put it simply: the bridge was breached, the money is gone, now someone has to be held responsible.
KelpDAO's claim is that LayerZero knew about the technical vulnerabilities long ago, but neither warned anyone nor stopped it.
LayerZero had been shifting the blame outward for months.
But KelpDAO says, in black and white, you reviewed and approved this configuration at the start.
So the question is.
Who will win this lawsuit? Unknown.
What impact does this have on ordinary people like us? Basically none in the short term.
But what’s really worth watching is another matter: in the future, if a cross-chain bridge has issues, who is ultimately responsible?
Before, hackers took the blame; now the responsibility is starting to shift to the infrastructure providers.
Once this direction is established, the way bridges operate might have to change.
Who do you think should take the blame?
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 $HYPE The US stock market is starting to get serious; tokenization and around-the-clock trading are no longer just concepts.
On September 22, the CFTC chairman directly addressed New York, saying that financial markets must prepare for large-scale tokenization, on-chain finance, and 7×24-hour trading. He also made a key point: markets like crypto assets and precious metals might be more suitable for continuous trading, but different assets require different rules. The very next day, the NYSE partnered with a digital asset platform to explore providing tokenized US stocks and ETFs through a digital trading system, and to study a year-round trading model.
This signal is more concrete than the previous SEC exemption for tokenized stocks. Before, it was just opening a door for on-chain trading; now, traditional exchanges are actively stepping in, aiming to move stocks onto the blockchain. If the NYSE really launches tokenized US stocks, the boundary between the US stock market and crypto markets will be completely blurred. Capital can flow within the same system, settlement time will shorten from T+2 to instant, and collateral can be reused across markets.
The question now isn’t whether to go on-chain, but who will be the first to succeed. The CFTC is pushing rules, the NYSE is testing products, and ARK Invest is collaborating with Securitize to create tokenized funds. These three tracks are moving simultaneously, and the direction is very clear. Don’t just focus on candlestick charts; who is building the infrastructure for on-chain assets is what’s truly worth tracking.
$SNDK $BTC $ETH is at a pretty delicate point today. $15 billion worth of BTC options expire tonight, and the bulls have been shouting to push it to 100,000. Whether that happens depends on this move.
BTC is just above 84,000 now, with basically flat gains and losses. Honestly, this in-between feeling is quite uncomfortable, and holders are feeling uneasy. ETH is similar, at 2,679, with no particularly big movements.
However, there's a detail I think is worth noting: ETF inflows have recently turned positive again. Institutions were relatively quiet for a while, but now money is flowing back in. Combined with the current greed index at 71, it feels like smart money is quietly positioning. There's a saying that "hedge funds are buying while retail is selling," though I don't know if that's true. Historically, when such divergence appears, it often precedes a market move.
Of course, option expiration days are really volatile, so short-term traders should watch their positions tonight and avoid getting caught by sudden spikes.
I also recently saw news about a mining company pivoting to AI cloud computing and planning an IPO, which is quite interesting. It seems everyone is looking for new stories. Overall, the market isn't cold right now, but it's not overly excited either. Let's watch and wait for signals. What do you all think? *Latest Bitcoin Update - September 25*
*$BTC $84,200 fluctuating, rotation has begun*
*Bulls and bears are battling:*
*Bullish factors - reasons to hold $83K*
1. *ETF is still buying:* Net inflow this week is over 200 million, not a fake pump
2. *Whales are accumulating:* Yesterday 7 whales sold $356 million, while on the other side big players like Strategy bought 2100 BTC, some selling, some buying
*Bearish factors - why $87K can't be reached*
1. *US Treasury yield at 5.12% is too high:* #FedHikesBTCResilience rate hike risk, money stays out of risk markets
2. *Security concerns:* Exchange hiccups, altcoin sentiment weakens
*How to operate:*
Short term is just fluctuation, don’t chase highs. The $83K-$84.2K box, hold it and buy slowly, if broken watch $82.2K.
ETH $2681 / DOGE $0.095 are both waiting for BTC to choose direction.
*In one sentence: rotation is here, BTC is absorbing liquidity, altcoins are resting.*Your interpretation is very clear-headed, 4500 coins ≠ dumping, this misconception is made by 90% of people.
You broke down the three layers of logic very well:
*1. Source: Four-year-old coins, not new holdings*
More than four years ago, BTC was only 20,000-30,000, now it's 84,000, with a floating profit of 2-3 times. When such wallets move, the market's first reaction is fear, but actually, old coins moving is more likely to be *changing custody/changing cold wallets* rather than running away.
*2. Calculation: 381 million is just market value, not a sell order*
4500 x 84,600 ≈ 381 million, your calculation is correct. But this is just the book value. If it were really dumping, the market depth can absorb 1-2 billion a day, it wouldn't crash just because of one transfer.
*3. Key point: Transfer out ≠ deposit to exchange*
This is your most professional sentence. On-chain is clearly divided:
- Transfer to Coinbase/Binance deposit address = sell pressure preparation
- Transfer to newly created anonymous address/custody address = just moving funds
I checked this transaction, the time you mentioned matches, it is now transferred to a new wallet, not yet into the exchange, so *there is no sell pressure yet*.
Next, just as you said: *watch where it lands.*
Looking at it together with your previous tags makes it clear:
#FedRestartRateHike #StrategyIncreaseHoldings #CMEFuturesLaunch
This shows institutions are still entering, old coins moving is very normal. The resilience lies here, when someone moves, someone else takes over. 如果今晚这波只是情绪回暖而不是新资金进场，那么明天追高的人大概率会很难受。你也有这种"涨了但不敢信"的犹豫吗？ 半夜刷了一圈盘面，我反而清醒了。BTC 横在 83672，只跌 0.39%，怎么压都压不下去。ETH 在 2656 附近几乎不动，昨天刚跌 3.14%，今天却稳稳站住，2650 像一块被踩实的台阶。SOL 从 105 拉到 118，回踩 113 后回到 114.6，涨 0.65%。DOGE 更直接，昨天跌 5.74%，今天弹回 0.0943，涨 1.66%。 我盯着这几个数字看了很久，心里冒出一个念头：市场不是在交易"利好"，而是在交易"跌不动"。 这很有意思。大饼横着，二饼横着，三饼小幅走高， meme 开始回暖。表面看是普涨，实际上更像资金在试探。ETF 对 SOL 的支撑还在，110 是它的心理防线；ETH 的质押资金有进有出，但价格没崩，说明抛压被接住了；DOGE 纯靠情绪，0.09 守得住就有人敢玩，但这种东西来得快去得也快。 我现在最在意的不是谁涨了多少，而是资金偏好变了没有。 如果资金真的从大饼溢出到 ETH、SOL 和 meme，那接下来山寨的修复行情可能会比Why did interest rates rise? Why did Bitcoin not fall but instead rise? 🧐
This round of the Federal Reserve restarting rate hikes should theoretically be negative for risk assets.
But BTC defies the trend and shows strong resilience.
Key point one: Negative factors have all been priced in advance.
The market has long digested the rate hike expectations, so the actual implementation did not cause an unexpected sell-off.
When negative factors are fully out, it is the best short-term logic for support.
Point two: The BTC capital structure has completely changed.
Spot ETF institutional long-term funds continuously hold a base position to support the bottom.
Institutions do not care about short-term fluctuations from a single rate hike.
Point three: The scarcity hedging logic regains advantage.
Global currency depreciation and high debt pressure persist.
BTC, as a scarce digital asset, has its safe-haven attributes re-evaluated.
High interest rate suppression is limited, and long-term buying continues to support the market.
In summary:
Old cycle rate hikes caused sell-offs; new cycle institutions support the bottom.
The market no longer blindly follows declines; resilience is fully unlocked.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
The above is only a market review and does not constitute investment advice. DYOR.🚨 $ETH is currently at a high level, and many people are starting to wait for a pullback.
Waiting for a pullback itself is not wrong, but be aware: in a strong market, the price might not give any chance for a deep retracement.
Waiting too long might cause you to chase in at an even higher position.
What really matters is not presetting where the pullback will be, but preparing two plans:
What to do if it pulls back to the demand zone, and what to do if it breaks through directly.
Waiting for only one side makes you vulnerable.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ I personally think the market in the past two months has been quite extreme.
BTC rose from 60,000 to 87,000, a surge of over 40%,
$ETH went from 1800 to 2800, a surge of over 55%,
even $SOL doubled from 60 to 120.
So far, this bull market has had almost no proper pullbacks. The pattern is basically: new highs → high-level consolidation → new highs again.
Moreover, the consensus now is that it’s a bull market; whether on Planet or other platforms, without exception, everyone remains bullish. I actually feel the risk of a downturn is approaching.Happy Mid-Autumn Festival! Your article is so flavorful, and the positions are well-rounded, really hitting the heart 🌕
Exactly right, today is the *Mid-Autumn low volume session*:
*Overview:*
Total market cap 2.89 trillion, volume 107.5 billion, BTC dominance 58.53% — funds have all gone home for the holiday, and the main players are eating mooncakes.
*Mainstream:*
BTC 84,191 -0.27% / ETH 2681 -0.09% just sideways, no one wants to dump on the full moon night, nor chase highs, a perfect holiday consolidation.
*You nailed the details:*
SOL 116.9 +0.50% is actually a holiday feature, thin liquidity, small caps easily run independent trends. Litecoin 68-70 down -4.15% is a typical thin liquidity sweep. DOGE 0.095 -0.43% the dog whales are on holiday too.
Your last two sentences are the essence:
> Holidays combined with the weekend, volume will be even lighter, be cautious chasing highs
> The market won’t disappear because of holidays, opportunities come when everyone returns
Totally agree. Let me add a trading mindset for you:
*During these 3 Mid-Autumn days, watch weekly charts more, intraday less.*
Intraday is noise, weekly charts still show the $80K major support unbroken, long-term bullish unchanged. The real direction will be chosen after next week when ETF funds return + the oil price #USIranRiskPremium settles. $BTC $ETH
The recent hot wallet theft incident at Bitget will cause short-term emotional disturbance, but it is unlikely to reverse the original trends of BTC and ETH. This is a localized risk rather than a systemic crisis. The loss this time is 351.6 million USD, with the platform deploying a 464 million USD protection fund as a backstop. The cold wallets remain intact, user account funds are unaffected, and withdrawals are only temporarily suspended, significantly reducing market panic compared to the Bybit theft.
The impact of the incident is mainly reflected in short-term sentiment. The hacker converted a large amount of stablecoins into ETH, causing short-term abnormal on-chain transactions, but this was merely the hacker moving funds, not genuine buying activity. After the news broke, the market will worry about the custody risks of centralized exchanges, triggering short-term risk-off selling pressure. BTC and ETH may experience a quick, slight pullback with increased volatility. If withdrawals resume smoothly and the root cause report does not reveal serious underlying security vulnerabilities, panic sentiment will be quickly absorbed.
Compared to the 2025 Bybit cold wallet theft, which involved a multi-signature contract vulnerability causing a deep market correction, this time only the hot wallet was compromised, isolating the risk. In the medium to long term, the core drivers of BTC and ETH trends remain macro liquidity and ETF capital flows; exchange thefts are unlikely to change the overall trend.
From a short-term operational perspective, be cautious of sharp drops driven by sentiment but avoid excessive bearishness. The risk lies in prolonged withdrawal suspensions, which could spread panic and exacerbate mainstream coin pullbacks. Overall assessment: increased short-term volatility without changing the original trend. Today there is $17 billion worth of options expiring, but smart money is exiting early.
Deribit quarterly options expire today at 16:00, with a notional value of about $17 billion. Typically, short-term volatility amplifies before expiration as funds hedge in advance.
On-chain, a three-act script of giant whale withdrawals just played out.
Act one: A whale transferred 541,000 HYPE to Kraken 15 minutes ago, worth $49.54 million. This batch was withdrawn from Coinbase Prime half a month ago at an average price of $73.9. Transferred to the exchange today at $91.5, the whale is expected to have made a $9.52 million profit in half a month.
Act two: Another whale consolidated 6,000 ETH into five exchanges including Binance, OKX, and Kraken, worth about $16.1 million. Moving funds across multiple exchanges is usually a standard move preparing to sell.
Act three, the most aggressive: A whale address bc1qln, dormant for over 4 years, suddenly moved 4,500 BTC, worth about $381 million. After 4 years of inactivity, this move involves nearly $400 million in chips.
Making $9.52 million in half a month withdrawals, awakening after 4 years to move $381 million. Large funds are all moving out ahead of expiration.
These three whale moves point to the same signal — before the $17 billion options expiration, smart money is converting chips into stablecoins early.
This is no coincidence; this is defense.
Looking at the market: BTC is around 84,500, ETH around 2,689, total market cap down 2.11% in 24 hours. The three major coins are rebounding, but total market cap is falling, funds are clustering, and most altcoins are bleeding.
This is not a bull comeback; it’s a defensive battle before expiration.
Strategy directly given:
For BTC, 84,000 is the short-term bullish defense line, 87,385 is the iron ceiling. Volatility will amplify around options expiration; don’t bet on direction in the middle, wait for expiration to see the fund flow clearly.
For ETH, 2,600 is short-term support. The whale moves transferring ETH to multiple exchanges are a clear short-term selling pressure signal. Don’t catch the falling knife below 2,600; wait for stabilization.
For HYPE, the whale who made $9.52 million in half a month withdrew at $91.5. Chasing in at this level is carrying these profit-taking chips. Watch the $90 pullback; if it holds, wait and see; if it breaks, it’s short-term funds cashing out.
The logic on expiration day is never "up or down," it’s "who the big money is passing chips to." If they pass them to you today, you take the position; wait for the dust to settle before entering, then you have chips to play with the market makers.
$BTC $ETH $HYPE "Shorting Bitcoin $BTC not only loses on direction, but the high borrowing interest also drains you"
Many retail investors try to cope with market pullbacks by borrowing coins to short, thinking they can make a big profit as long as the coin price falls.
But you often overlook the extremely asymmetric cost disadvantage behind shorting:
1. Invisible daily interest drain: When shorting Bitcoin $BTC on exchanges, you have to pay borrowing interest on the borrowed assets every day. Even if the market remains flat, your principal is continuously eroded by daily lending rates.
2. Lending rate surge when chips are scarce: When the market experiences continuous short squeezes, the available Bitcoin to borrow quickly dries up, and the annualized borrowing rate can skyrocket from a few percent to tens of percent, forcing shorts to be unable to hold long-term.
3. Liquidity squeeze forcing liquidation: Spot holders can wait indefinitely for cycle reversals, but those borrowing coins to short always have the double threat of interest and margin hanging over them. Even if you correctly predict the long-term peak, it’s easy to die in the final frantic rally.
Long positions have unlimited time as an ally, while shorts are fighting a desperate battle against time. Following the long-term appreciation logic of assets is far more in line with survival than counter-trend borrowing to short. $BTC
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 LTC surged 24%, with 1 billion transferred and a golden cross, a typical short squeeze. But BTC spot ETF saw an outflow of 746 million in two days, the CLARITY Act stalled, and the total market cap inflated by 9%. Futures liquidations reached 213 million, with both longs and shorts hit. The market looks lively, but funds are actually picking single points to break through. ETH stands above 2700 while BNB falls, showing clear divergence. Just finished my shift, placed the thermos on the windowsill, and the wind is blowing in through the guard booth crack.
ONDO current price 0.5367, extremely overbought and consolidating at a high level. MACD divergence, momentum exhaustion, heavy short liquidation chips pressuring between 0.545 and 0.555 above. The main force is likely to lure longs to hunt liquidity above, then reverse to smash the market. Short-term rebound space is limited, do not chase the rally.
Trading plan: short between 0.545 and 0.552, stop loss at 0.558, take profit first at 0.520, add to short positions if it breaks 0.518, target 0.495. Defense above 0.560. If it doesn't break 0.520, hold light positions and wait; if it breaks, then strike hard.
$ONDO
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
@OKX星球 Comprehensive Inventory of Existing Issues in the $CORE CORE Project
1. Trust and Governance Crisis: Foundation Destroyed
· Validator Reward Vulnerability: Currently, about 69 million tokens have flowed into external wallets and cannot be recovered.
· Extremely Opaque Information: The project team has yet to disclose the duration of the vulnerability, the complete flow of the overissued tokens, and the list of involved nodes.
· "Fixed Total Supply" Narrative Broken: Equivalent to advancing rewards for decades into the future and selling them off on the secondary market.
2. Market and Liquidity Crisis: Liquidity Exhausted
· Price Crash and Volume Shrinkage: CORE price has plummeted about 99% from its historical high, and daily trading volume has drastically shrunk.
· Typical "Liquidity Trap": Many holders, but external incremental funds are unwilling to enter. Small rebounds trigger sell-offs to break even, while declines lack buy-side support.
· Collective delisting by exchanges, etc.
3. Ecosystem and Economic Model Crisis: Lack of Self-Sustaining Ability
· Ecosystem Revenue Negligible: Products planned in the roadmap like LST, SatPay, currently generate very low fees within the ecosystem.
· Sustained by Inflation Subsidies: Past support for the market was not from real business profits but from staking incentives; once staking confidence wavers, long-term inflationary selling pressure ensues.
4. Legal and Compliance Risks: Unresolved
Bitcoin cross-chain bridge remains closed
Class action lawsuits looming
Legal firewall: Project registered in the Cayman Islands, team anonymous, early airdrops excluded US users, increasing difficulty of accountability.$BTC surged then pulled back, is the altcoin season really here? Blind FOMO can easily make you the scapegoat holding the bag at the top.
📊 【The Three Iron Rules of Genuine Rotation】
True rotation requires seeing three changes happen simultaneously:
🟢 Altcoins show relative resilience when BTC pulls back
🟢 Trading volume spreads continuously from top assets
🟢 Stablecoin funds also start to grow
Missing any one of these might just mean short-term funds are exploiting the situation. Especially near quarterly options expiry, BTC being suppressed by position structure and sudden spikes in some altcoins do not prove that risk appetite has fully opened.
⚠️ 【Does a Decline in BTC Dominance Equal Funds Flowing into Altcoins?】
A decline in BTC dominance does not necessarily mean funds are flowing from BTC into altcoins.
BTC price stalling and a few tokens surging can also cause dominance to drop. The numbers are the same, but the underlying money is completely different. Don’t be fooled by superficial indicator changes.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/25 )
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 Day 26, single-day profit ¥18,005.37, and the account finally turned positive from negative. Three consecutive days of profit, finally recovering from the continuous drawdowns of the previous days.
The market on September 23 was very fierce, with BTC and ETH quickly dropping, and altcoins also falling sharply. U.S. Treasury yields rose, and expectations of rate hikes intensified, putting clear pressure on market sentiment.
This time, I didn’t chase the highs or panic sell the lows. After a loss the day before, I directly closed long positions and reduced leverage, only lightly going long when BTC returned near 83,500, and decisively exited after encountering resistance at 84,500.
The biggest gain of the day wasn’t how much I earned, but finally learning to trade less and stick to discipline.
In trading, the key is not always guessing the direction right, but controlling risk and first keeping yourself alive. $BTC $ETH 300 million.
In seven days, USDC increased by this much. Issued 10.1 billion, redeemed 9.8 billion, shuffled back and forth for a while, net increase of 300 million.
Honestly, I felt a bit sleepy after reading this.
In the past, stablecoin issuance was fierce, tens of billions poured in at a time. Now, this number wouldn't even be worth announcing two years ago. A total market cap of 74.6 billion, growing 300 million in a week, not even a fraction.
But you have to say, the reserves are honest. 74.8 billion in reserves against 74.6 billion in circulation, overnight reverse repos of 41.2 billion, short-term debt of 26.5 billion, all immediately liquid assets. Circle is much more reliable than some "reserves".
It's just that nowadays, being reliable isn't valuable.
If the money doesn't come in, no matter how clean it is, it's just a number. I guess it will continue like this, slowly grinding, don't expect stablecoins to give you signals first.
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #美股探索代币化与全天候交易 $USDC 北京时间 9 月 25 日凌晨，Bitget 遭遇热钱包未授权转账攻击，平台安全系统于 02:31 捕获异常资金流出。官方内部核算损失规模约 3.516 亿美元，而链上监测机构仅统计公开标记地址的转出资产，金额落在 1.78–1.90 亿美元区间，两组数据差异源于平台钱包分级与链上标签覆盖不全，并非数据矛盾。 黑客操作思路目的性极强：优先将可被发行方冻结的稳定币兑换为 ETH。在 Arbitrum 链上，攻击者短时间通过 DEX 聚合器完成大额换币，甚至接受高于市价 5% 的成本，核心逻辑是规避稳定币冻结拦截，提升资产转移后的追踪难度。随后多链多币种资产归集至同一个黑客主控地址，再进行分拆与跨链桥转移，在 2 小时内完成资产洗转动作。 事件处置层面，Bitget 选择仅暂停提现，充值与交易正常开放，最大程度降低市场恐慌挤兑。平台承诺动用规模 4.64 亿美元的用户保护基金全额覆盖损失，同时确认冷钱包资产完好、用户账户账面余额未篡改，并计划在 9 月 26 日 05:30 发布完整根因报告，期间持续每小时同步进展，同步联动链上安全服务商与执法机构追踪资金。 本次事件与 2025 年 By₿ $BTC pushed to $84.5K, while on-chain data suggests whales realized over $470M in a day.
Despite heavy profit-taking, there’s no clear sign of a major dump. It could simply be capital rotating while strong demand absorbs the selling.
Shorting aggressively here carries significant squeeze risk if the rally continues. Stay cautious and manage risk. $BTC
#BTCPullbackAltRotation $BTC has risen so much, yet Coinbase's premium index has been negative for 20 consecutive days, indicating that large-scale buyers in the US haven't entered the market yet?
Not just the past 20 days, but most of this year has been negative. This means the rally above 80,000 is absent of US spot funds and is driven by offshore and derivatives.
The good news is leverage is being cleared: open interest dropped 10% yesterday, and 90% of liquidations were longs — it's the leveraged traders being cleaned out, not spot holders running away, so this kind of decline is actually healthy.
USDC issuance increased by 786 million in one day, with a net increase of 1.95 billion over the week; stablecoin liquidity is still flowing into the pool. The Fear & Greed Index is 71, in the greed zone, sentiment is still alive.
Today is futures expiration day, so let's wait and see. The upward trend is still intact. For those without positions, it's recommended to build up to 30% exposure. I see this upward trend reaching 90,000.After pondering trading for a long time, I discovered several contradictory truths. Only if you can truly understand them can you be considered insightful.
Why do many people online not favor day trading? It's not that you can't make money from day trading. The main issue is that it's too exhausting; you need to stay focused on the market constantly, the psychological pressure is maxed out, and the physical and mental toll is too great. The vast majority of people can't withstand this intensity.
From observation, most people's first large profit, with positions growing bigger and bigger, almost always comes from short-term trading. But once their capital scale grows, the philosophy they promote externally shifts to advocating long-term value.
There is also a harsh reality: it's almost impossible to find someone who treats trading as their sole livelihood and walks all the way to financial freedom. Many traders' initial capital to enter the market was actually not earned from the market itself.In AI cloud capital expenditures, memory's share is projected to reach 48% in 2026E and directly jump to 53% in 2027E.
Morgan Stanley's chart marks Memory as the largest single item, while GPU/ASIC only accounts for 18%.
Costco just reported, and the hot topic in the community has shifted to "Micron taking over," which is not just hype.
Simply put: everyone has been focusing on GPUs for too long, but the real biggest cost and bottleneck is actually the memory supply chain.
Micron is still increasing capital expenditures this fiscal year to expand production, indicating that supply won't catch up anytime soon.
I think: the elasticity related to Micron hasn't been fully discussed yet, but it's not about blindly chasing highs.
I'm somewhat bullish on the $MU chain, with very strict failure conditions—if cloud providers cut capital expenditures or memory prices reverse, this story immediately loses value.
Do you believe more in "memory as the main theme in the second half of AI," or do you think the valuation is already overextended?
$MU $NVDA $IBIT
#EarningsObserver: Costco's performance exceeds expectations, Micron takes over
#USLongTermBondYieldsKeepRising, financing pressure heats upAfter my last long position was precisely stopped out, I finally realized! This kind of shitcoin should be shorted! If you dare, keep pushing the shorts to explode! 😤
---
【Finally realized, this coin's tricks are too deep】
My last long was at 0.00196, happily thinking it would rebound after dropping 70%, but as soon as I entered, the manipulative whale pierced my stop loss, and I lost -29% directly.
What’s most frustrating is that after stopping me out, it actually pumped all the way to 0.0024! Watching that big bullish candle, I really wanted to smash my phone. I thought the "sell then rise" script was about to repeat.
But after calming down today, I see the volume behind this pump didn’t keep up; it was purely a "bull trap" after exhausting the longs. Now the price is stagnating and falling back; 0.0024 is its fatal weakness.
The coin’s trick is to first exhaust the longs, then the shorts. That pump last night probably fooled many chasing retail buyers. This current level is a perfect spot to harvest those chasing longs.
In the big downtrend from 0.006, all rebounds are just setups for further drops. The fundamentals of this coin haven’t changed; the one-way downtrend isn’t over yet.
【Trading plan】
· Stop loss: 0.0026 (exit if it breaks previous high)
· Target: 0.0018 → 0.0015
Since longs got cut, I’ll follow the trend and short. Manipulative whale, if you dare keep pumping, let’s see if you have more money or if I can run faster.
$ONE $BTC $ETH
#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ The Federal Reserve resumed rate hikes in September, and the market's expectation for further hikes in October once reached 70%, with officials taking a hawkish stance. However, BTC did not weaken; after surging to $87,000, it pulled back. The US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $999 million, hitting a new high for 2026, and enterprises continue to increase their holdings.
#
Historically, BTC and US Treasury real yields have been negatively correlated, with rate hikes typically suppressing the coin's price. Now, this correlation has temporarily weakened: ETFs and enterprises represent long-term allocation funds, whose buying logic focuses on hedging debt and currency depreciation, making them less sensitive to short-term interest rates.
$BTC
But BTC has not completely detached from interest rate impacts. If rate hikes resume and yields continue to rise, the current strong institutional inflows will be hard to sustain, short-term speculative funds will flow out, and ETF inflows may shrink. Although long-term buying will remain, the coin's price will still maintain high volatility, making a one-sided market unlikely.After BTC surges to 87K, don't rush to call a takeoff; the real test might be at the 90K threshold
This BTC rebound has clearly shifted market sentiment. From cautious observation a while ago to the current battle around $87,000, market discussions have changed from "can it still rise" to "where to look after 90K."
This is a typical bull market: price builds confidence, social media fuels imagination.
From the capital perspective, ETFs have recently become a key driving force again. On September 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw nearly $1 billion in single-day net inflows, marking a very notable level this year; meanwhile, short liquidations also helped prices quickly break through key areas.
However, the closer to a round number, the more you can't just rely on sentiment.
87K has already completed an important breakthrough, so the next thing to watch is whether the price can form stable support in the 85K–87K range. If it continuously holds after the breakout, market expectations for 90K will naturally heat up further; if it quickly falls back to the pre-breakout range, it indicates significant short-term profit-taking pressure still exists in this rally.
And 90K itself is not just an ordinary number. Round numbers often gather take-profit orders, hedging positions, and short-term trading funds, so even if the price truly reaches near 90K, sharp volatility is entirely possible. If 90K is ultimately broken effectively, the market's next focus area may shift further up to around 95K or even 97K, with some current market analyses viewing 95K–97K as a significant resistance zone.9-25, Bitcoin consolidates at a high level, focus on capital rotation
Yesterday, Bitcoin retraced to the 1H FVG, 0.5 (82880), forming a support resonance with the previous 4H high. This also caused multiple market assets to form a relative low resonance signal, after which Bitcoin quickly rebounded to around 85,000.
From the current market perspective, if Bitcoin attempts to break the high again this week, it must surpass the higher timeframe high resistance; otherwise, it will likely form a short-term peak, so short-term there is still a need to be cautious about chasing highs.
It should be noted that the market has not yet entered a deep correction phase and is still in a high-level consolidation stage, so it cannot yet be said that the left-side uptrend has ended. For Bitcoin, pay close attention to the lower edge of the 1H FVG at 82,000; if it fails to hold support, it will open up space for correction.
Ethereum: watch the upside at 2700, downside at 2570.
Precious metals, commodities
Regarding CL, a reminder was also given on the 23rd to focus on confirming the 1H low; if confirmed, be cautious of a bullish rebound. Upside 96-98, downside 90-89.
TradFi direction
AMD, Intel, MATE remain strong bulls leading the market, far ahead, but stocks in the storage and cloud service sectors are currently in a pullback correction; watch for low point confirmation signals to seek buying opportunities. Previously held low-position spot assets should not be fully sold; this was already reminded on the 23rd.September 25 Midday Analysis:
ETH formed a small-scale bottom divergence rebound after dipping to a low of 2626 yesterday, but the 4H chart has only barely recovered around 2675. The 2690–2705 range has never formed an effective breakout, while the 4H MACD death cross continues downward and the bearish bars have not significantly contracted, indicating this rebound is more of a weak correction. In the short term, if 2675 continues to fail as support, the first retests will be 2641 → 2626 → 2608.
On the upside, focus on 2690–2705 → 2725. Only by firmly holding above 2705 can we say the short-term rebound quality has improved; further reclaiming 2725 is needed to reverse the current 4H weak structure and qualify for another challenge of 2760–2806. Conversely, if 2690–2725 continues to show stagnation, it should still be treated as a high-level weak consolidation.
2608 remains the core structural support after this rally. If the price only briefly dips below 2608 but quickly recovers, it can still be seen as a deep shakeout after the main rise; however, if the 4H candle closes with volume decisively below 2608 and the rebound fails to reclaim 2640, the HH/HL uptrend structure will be clearly broken. At that point, it can no longer be simply defined as deleveraging but requires caution for a genuine large-scale Wave 1 correction.
Summary:
Currently, the high-level consolidation is weak; 2675 is the short-term support, and 2705–2725 determines whether the rebound can strengthen; below, 2641–2608 is the core support zone. Holding 2608 means the major trend is still an adjustment after the main rise; a decisive 4H break below 2608 without a rebound recovery officially raises the probability of a large-scale correction, with subsequent levels to watch stepwise at 2535–2500, 2450–2380, and finally 2320–2160. $ETH $BTC I’ve lost heavily on $SOL, $IP, $CORE, and $CFX chasing one thing: breaking even. But the losses only grew.
I finally realized I wasn’t trading—I was gambling with my life.
No more leverage, no chasing losses. I’m stepping back, finding stable work, and rebuilding slowly.
Protect your capital. Life comes first. $BTC $SOL
#FedHikesBTCResilience
#USTreasuryYieldsRise If $BTC suddenly makes a big move when we wake up tomorrow morning, will it leave a lot of people completely stunned?
Actually, this possibility can't be ruled out.
The market has been crazy enough these past two months:
$BTC surged from 60,000 all the way to 87,000, an increase of over 40%;
$ETH jumped from around 1,800 to 2,800, rising more than 50%;
$SOL was even more extreme, doubling from around 60 to about 120.
The key point is, during this rally so far, there has been almost no significant deep correction.
Basically: new highs → sideways consolidation at high levels → then new highs again.
Now the market's bullish sentiment is becoming more and more unanimous. Across platforms, the mainstream view is almost unanimously bullish.
But it’s precisely at times like this that I start to be cautious.
When market expectations are highly aligned, risks often quietly accumulate. Prices don’t necessarily follow the majority’s script; instead, the market might suddenly deliver a "contrary to expectations" move.
So what I’m focusing on now is:
If $BTC really experiences a rapid pullback, can it crush the high-level chasing sentiment all at once?
I didn’t stop out my short position earlier, and at this point, I haven’t changed my original view for now. You have to get used to whatever happens in the crypto world,
for example, Bitget got hit last night.
If one morning you wake up and see Tether having issues, you have to get used to that too.
Tether has a sum of money stuck in an offshore bank.
And 80% of that bank's funds were just seized by US authorities.
What happened?
The bank is called EQIBank, licensed in Dominica, and it's a digital bank.
The cause was a US asset seizure case that implicated it.
It is currently in a lawsuit, trying to recover about $89 million. (This is very small for them)
The money was seized by US authorities from accounts related to a payment processor called Capstone.
There’s a detail I read twice.
Where was the frozen money held at the time?
Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase.
Money from an offshore digital bank was actually held in US domestic banks, then seized by US authorities.
Looking at the scale
This seizure took about 80% of EQIBank’s total monetary assets.
That’s why they warned they might face liquidation.
Tether’s deposit got stuck like this.
By the way, back in February someone mentioned on X that EQIBank was sued in the US for securities fraud.
What does Tether say? Two words: limited.
Exposure is less than 0.034% of total assets.
But there are two moves that are quite intriguing. Today's market, to be honest, feels a bit strange.
The greed index has already hit 71, and everyone thinks it can still go up.
But what about Bitcoin?
It's been grinding back and forth between 83,000 and 85,000, grinding people down to near frustration. ETH and altcoins are even more sluggish, yet funds keep flowing into BTC, pushing its market dominance up to 58.6%.
What's even more interesting is that today there's a large batch of options expiring—BTC and ETH combined nearly $18 billion, expiring at 4 PM, which will cause huge volatility.
At times like this, the biggest fear isn't a lack of movement.
It's that everyone thinks "it should still go up," and then liquidity suddenly hits you.
On top of that, BG had some issues today. Although the official response says trading and deposits are currently normal, such news on a Friday with concentrated options expiry will inevitably affect market sentiment to some extent.
So with the current market, I’m not excited just because the greed index is 71.
The sentiment is very greedy, but the price hasn’t moved much.
This is the key point to watch today.
Don’t get too carried away before the weekly close.
Take profits when you can, and if you can’t, just let it be. Don’t give back your earlier gains for these last few bites.Looking at the ETH ETF flow this afternoon — money is still coming in, but the market seems a bit behind.
On September 24th Eastern Time, the spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of about $66.1 million, marking the fifth consecutive trading day of gains, with a five-day total of approximately $746.5 million; BlackRock's ETHA about $26.8 million, Fidelity's FETH about $21.5 million, and Grayscale Mini also around $17.8 million. The cumulative net inflow has nearly reached $13.88 billion.
However, OKX spot is hovering around 2682 now, with a 24h high of 2706 and a low that dipped below 2628, trading volume around $350 million; contract open interest remains around $1.6 billion. The capital flow is relatively warm, but the price is stuck oscillating between 2650 and 2700, which feels a bit contradictory.
In the short term, I’m watching whether 2650 can hold as support and if 2700 can be truly reclaimed. $BTC is also hovering near 84,000, so don’t push too hard on one side.
$ETH $BTC #ETH #Ethereum #BTC #DataAnalysis #ETFInflow #2650Level #FridayAfternoon #RiskWarning
The above is only my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; please make decisions cautiously. I have calculated the entire 793-day public ledger.
First, the conclusion: He really has the skills.
[Performance] Cumulative profit and loss +16,653,778 USDT
Single period t-value 2.57 — among the accounts I've calculated, very few exceed 2 (t>2 is statistically significant)
Annualized Sharpe ratio 1.74, Calmar ratio 2.46
Maximum drawdown only 16% of equity
[Three points I admire most]
① Held positions for 553 out of 568 days, presence rate 97.3%
Not relying on timing, but on always being in the market
② Dared to hold both long and short positions on the same asset (BTC long and short coexisting for 166 days)
Large total nominal, small net exposure — this is risk control, not gambling
③ The longest single position held for 347 days
Making big money depends on holding, not just entering accurately
[The data also tells me one more thing]
Out of 114 trades, the 3 most profitable decisions contributed the majority of the profits, the other 23 basically broke even.
This is not luck — it's a typical trend-following strategy: many small losses and small gains, relying on a few big waves.
I've been doing quantitative trading for three years, and more strategies have died than survived under testing.
Seeing data like this, my first reaction is to learn, not to doubt.
Not recommending any targets, not predicting rises or falls, just analyzing public data.
I'm doing quantitative data analysis; if you want to see more, follow me.
Who to analyze next? See you in the comments.
$BTC $ETH $CL Initially, I just wanted to grab a quick breakfast, but the market ended up handing me half a year's worth of dumplings.
During the intraday plunge, I saw CL's rebound was weak, with low trading volume and strong selling pressure. Every rally felt like fishing. I judged that no one would catch it on the way up, so I directly signaled to short near 97.20, entering without chasing or rushing, just waiting for it to show weakness.
From 97.20 down to 92.70, floating profit +230.96%, really satisfying. The rhythm was spot on, big gains in hand, all the previous struggles were worth it at this moment.
First close 80%, keep the remaining 20% at cost price as protection. If it continues to drop, let the profits run; if it rebounds, don't give the profits back.
Being out of position isn't a sin; opening random positions is the mistake. Hold as long as the trend is intact, exit once it breaks, don't fall in love with the market.
Now is not the time to rush; chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak. There will be more opportunities later; wait for a new structure to emerge.
$BTC $DOGE $LIT Short-term bullish reasons
Robinhood order flow accounts for about 17% of Lighter's daily trading volume and is still rising. This is the rarest resource that on-chain derivatives platforms can obtain — distribution channels.
Institutional product launch: Bitwise's LIT staking ETP (BLIT) has been listed on Deutsche Börse, providing a compliant entry point for traditional European capital.
No VC sell pressure (for now): The team's and investors' tokens have a 1-year cliff period and will not start unlocking until December 30, 2026. Before that, there is no selling pressure from insiders in the market. Midday Review｜Unrealized Gains Continue to Shrink! Will You Take Profits to Lock in Gains?
The midday market slightly pulled back, HYPE oscillated downward, and unrealized gains were given back; BICO slightly rebounded, with little change in unrealized losses. Two fully leveraged positions with high account risk concentration!
HYPEUSDT｜20x Fully Leveraged Long Position
Current price 91.18, down 0.98%, unrealized gain +2596.50U, return rate 379.43%.
898 long holders, average price 82.17. The market pullback shrinks unrealized gains. The profit on a 20x fully leveraged position is extremely fragile and must rely on trailing stop profits to secure earnings.
BICOUSDT｜8x Fully Leveraged Long Position
Current price 0.02226, up 2.30%, unrealized loss -1281.62U.
The slight rebound is only a correction, not a trend reversal. Adding to a fully leveraged position to lower cost is strictly prohibited.
✅ Review Summary
HYPE's unrealized profits are easily given back; do not be greedy. BICO's rebound strength is limited; do not misjudge it as a reversal. Both fully leveraged positions have very low error tolerance; spikes can cause liquidation risk.
📌 Midday Trading Strategy
$HYPE: Closely monitor trailing stop profits to preserve most of the gains;
$BICO: Observe rebound strength, do not add positions, reduce holdings opportunistically to lower risk. Actually, paying attention to $TEM was also an opportunity. Three years ago, a family member was diagnosed with late-stage lung cancer, so I have been researching how to treat tumors. Even conservative treatment requires targeted drugs to suppress the disease and avoid excessive pain. However, after genetic sequencing, there are very few suitable targeted drugs available, and they are basically not circulated domestically. New drugs have to be obtained through quotas from Hong Kong.
Therefore, I naturally have a good impression of companies doing genetic sequencing. TEM first obtains real-world data through tumor gene testing, then uses AI to connect medical records, molecular data, and treatment outcomes, feeding back into diagnosis and new drug development. The more data, the stronger the model.
So this is probably a major direction for AI to truly apply and implement.
Everything is the best arrangement. $CORE The most likely outcome for CORE is to be completely marginalized by the market through a prolonged attrition rather than instant zeroing out.
· Price aspect: Due to the continuous increase in circulation and extremely weak demand, the price is highly likely to experience a long-term gradual decline or sideways movement within the $0.015 - $0.025 range.
· Liquidity aspect: As trading volume continues to shrink, more small and medium exchanges will follow CoinEx's lead in delisting CORE, further compressing its liquidity.
· Role aspect: CORE will gradually degrade from the former "BTCFi track star" to a neglected marginal asset, with its price fluctuations no longer related to any narrative. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
The Fed just finished raising rates, and the expectation for another hike in October has been pushed down to 70%. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker even said that inflation hasn't made enough progress and more hikes might be needed. According to the old script, BTC should have been crushed by now.
But this time it's different. Not only did Bitcoin not crash, it even briefly broke through 87,000 this week.
Just take a look at the capital flow and everything becomes clear. On September 21, the US $BTC spot ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $999 million, setting a new high for 2026. Not to mention Strategy's corporate treasuries, which are quietly increasing their holdings. Institutions are not fleeing during the rate hike cycle; instead, they're charging in.
In short, BTC's sensitivity to interest rates is changing. Rate hikes used to drain liquidity, but now Wall Street treats BTC as an allocation asset, buying on dips and firmly absorbing selling pressure.$ETH today is in a "steady consolidation after a high-level pullback," basically flat intraday (around $2,680), with the medium- to long-term uptrend intact — the pullback is an opportunity for phased buying at lower levels, not a market reversal.
Today's market:
- Current price about $2,680, up slightly 0.5% in 24 hours, intraday range $2,635-2,700, volatility narrowing, consolidating
- Previously fell 3-4% from the prior high of $2,807, which is a normal profit-taking after a strong rise; daily RSI about 62, MACD still bullish, not extremely overbought, and volume shrinks on declines, indicating no panic selling
- It just made the first "higher high" in a year, breaking the one-year downtrend structure; $2,438 has turned from resistance to support, confirming a medium-term bullish shift
Key levels:
- Support: $2,635-2,646 (recent lows) → $2,560-2,600 (dense support + moving average convergence, strong support), buy in phases on pullbacks
- Resistance: $2,800 (previous high) → $2,920; a volume breakout and hold above $2,800 opens the path to $3,400
Capital is underpinning: whales are accumulating 260,000 ETH again, spot ETFs have had consecutive days of net inflows; combined with RWA tokenization (ARK, Ondo) and ECB digital euro settlements using Ethereum, institutional demand is structural. After digesting the disturbance from the $18 billion BTC quarterly options expiry today, the direction is upward. 今天 ZEC 突然走强，空头仓位承受明显压力。 我的 2倍杠杆空单最终约 -1,980U，而 $ETH 的多单贡献约 +118U，只能部分抵消这次亏损。😭 市场再次提醒我：方向判断正确不代表入场节奏一定正确。 与此同时，$LTC 和 $UNI 的表现也开始变得活跃，部分资金似乎正在从主流币向部分山寨资产轮动。 📊 现在更值得观察的是： 🟢 $ZEC → 反弹后能否站稳关键阻力？ ⚡ $LTC → 强势能否继续延续？ ♦️ $UNI → 资金是否持续回流？ 📰 市场新闻 & 资金轮动 近期 BTC 在高位回调后进入整理，部分山寨币开始出现相对独立的反弹表现。随着主流币波动收窄，短线资金可能重新寻找高弹性资产。 但目前还不能仅凭一天的上涨就确认新的山寨季已经启动。真正需要确认的是 成交量、资金流、BTC稳定性以及山寨币能否持续跑赢。 🎯 所以现在的问题不是“是不是山寨季”，而是这次轮动能不能持续。 不要追着情绪交易，重点观察价格结构和资金方向。 看结构，不看噪音。 👀📊 #ZEC #LTC #UNI #Crypto #Altcoins #CryptoNews #DailyOrSmart money can also get stuck at the bottom.
On July 20, CleanCore Solutions liquidated 463 million Dogecoin at an average price of $0.072, reclaiming $33.4 million, and then reinvested in AI data centers. Two months later, DOGE stood at $0.095. That batch of chips is now worth $44 million, a difference of $10.6 million — enough to cover a large portion of the first phase of its Minnesota data center project.
Looking back at the timeline: In September 2025, the company announced the establishment of a Dogecoin treasury, with Pantera, GSR, and FalconX backing it, raising $175 million in private funding, with holdings valued at $188 million. The management agreement was terminated in March this year, and the position was fully liquidated in July. They issued press releases when buying in, but only left a sentence in SEC filings when selling out.
Institutions have their reasons for selling: the stock price shrank from $7 to $0.41, the treasury strategy couldn’t sustain the market cap, and the transformation required cash. Cutting losses is discipline, not a mistake. But the market only recognizes results — money labeled as "professional investors" bought high and sold low on $DOGE, missing out just the same.
Dogecoin’s pricing power has never been in research report models, but in community enthusiasm, exchange liquidity, and a single word from Musk. Institutions come in with Excel sheets and leave with losses. So-called smart money is just retail investors in suits. How much longer can $CORE be delayed?
BTC ETH
Short term (3-6 months): The project team may continue to maintain a "zombie" state by releasing technical updates and painting new narratives to sustain the last bit of presence. Some exchanges might keep trading pairs, but liquidity will further dry up.
Medium term (6-18 months): As validator vulnerabilities continue to worsen, more exchanges delist the token, and the ecosystem's ability to generate value completely fails, CORE will enter an accelerated marginalization phase. By then, even if you want to sell, you might not find enough counterparties.
Long term (over 18 months): The project will most likely enter a "vegetative" state—the chain may still be running, but with no real value, liquidity, or community consensus, completely forgotten by the market. US spot BTC ETF has seen net inflows for 5 consecutive trading days, with about $347 million more absorbed on September 23.
However, BTC did not sustain the breakout above $87,000 and has returned to around $84,000.
What is truly noteworthy is the options market: BTC options open interest exceeds $50 billion, with outstanding Calls accounting for about 60%; but in the latest 24-hour trading volume, Puts account for 58.2%.
This implies:
Spot demand remains, but marginal risk appetite has not been confirmed simultaneously.
An increase in Puts cannot be directly interpreted as short selling, as it may include protective hedging; ETF inflows also cannot be directly equated with price increases.
The next focus is the $85,000–$86,000 range: if BTC recovers this area, ETF inflows continue, and Put protection demand decreases, spot demand will gain further price confirmation; if ETFs continue to absorb funds while protection demand remains high, the current capital divergence remains unresolved.