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我們來看一下狗狗幣的部分。 現價約 0.0979。今天跟著山寨一起彈了兩個多趴，日線高點大概到 0.099 附近，離我們要的位置已經很近了，但還沒真的碰到。 狗狗的做法很簡單：只要到 0.1，我們就去空它，止損壓在 0.12。現在 0.098 左右還差一點點，不要在下面提前追空，等它到 0.1 再動手。價格到了就開，沒到就等，這沒有什麼好猶豫的。 止盈的部分，跟 Solana 一樣，我真的很難給大家建議，看個人自己的造化。重點是止損 0.12 一定要先掛好，破了就砍，不要拖到 0.15 才醒。 之前在 0.101 附近開的空單，今天高點還沒碰到那邊，剩下那一半照原本的止盈止損繼續拿著就好。 多單的部分，還是回落到 0.08 附近的區間底才考慮。 籌碼面上，狗狗沒有像比特幣那樣的 ETF 日流數字可以看，主要跟著山寨情緒跟合約槓桿走。OKX 上狗狗永續資金費率在 0.01% 左右，是正常水位；未平倉量比早上稍微多一點，大約 10.2 億顆，槓桿有在慢慢回來。情緒幣上來噴、下來也快，到位空的時候倉位不要太重。 消息面上，它跟大盤、山寨情緒連動很高，今天這波是跟著 Solana、瑞波一起彈，$ONE looks increasingly abandoned.
After the August exploit that reportedly forged ~3T ONE and forced a 140K+ block rollback, trust in the chain took another major hit following the 2022 Horizon bridge hack.
TVL has collapsed from around $1B to roughly $150K, while on-chain activity and fees have nearly disappeared.
With the migration to Ethereum, shrinking market cap, and validators exiting, the L1 economy looks severely weakened.
For now, the fundamentals offer little reason for optimism. BTC pulled back after surging to $87,400: a shakeout or a failed breakout?
The daily trend remains bullish, with the 4-hour chart currently testing support. The $88,000 resistance is strong, but it’s too early to conclude the rebound is over.
This rally was driven by ETF spot buying and short stop-losses, not just contract spikes. Open interest declined during the pullback, funding rates briefly turned negative, and high-leverage longs were cleared; ETFs still saw net inflows, and exchange balances did not increase significantly. This looks more like profit-taking and high-level rotation rather than a concentrated institutional exit.
Technically, the daily chart remains above short-term moving averages, and the uptrend structure is intact; however, the 4-hour highs are lower, volume hasn’t expanded, and bulls have shifted from offense to defense.
Key zones to watch:
$83,000–$84,000 is the first support; holding here could lead to a rebound to $86,000 and then retesting $87,400–$88,000;
$80,000–$82,000 is the lifeline; a break here is normal for a shakeout, but if it breaks and fails to recover on a rebound, weakness will set in;
Only a volume-backed hold above $88,000 can open the $90,000–$92,000 range.
On the macro side, US stock risk appetite hasn’t fully deteriorated yet, but the 10-year US Treasury yield has risen above 5%, and high interest rates continue to limit BTC’s upside.
In the coming days, expect consolidation first, then a directional choice. Watch $82,000 for support; if missed, wait for a pullback confirmation; the bias is bullish but that doesn’t mean every level is a buy.
$ETH $SOL $BTC $AKE No big picture, can't hold on, this wave of profit is as thin as paper, but I love it to death.😎
When the market was just crushed in the early session, AKE had strong sell orders, low trading volume, and obvious resistance above, a typical sign of a continued decline. When others were running, I suggested following the trend to short, opened a short position at 0.05149, not perfect but good enough.
Then the answer came directly: 0.03637, short position +587.29% profit in hand, worth the wait, really satisfying. The earlier hesitation, the drop was ruthless, big gains.
The premise of compounding is survival; the shortcut to getting rich is often going to zero.
Hold as long as the trend is intact, run when it breaks, don't fall in love with the market.
Position management: first close 80%, keep 20% at cost price for protection, don't let profits become uncomfortable if it rebounds. Now is not the time to rush, chasing shorts easily gets stuck halfway, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, opportunities remain, don't be anxious.💥
$ETH $LAB A reminder of a signal many overlook but that can overturn risk assets: the Japanese yen.
Tonight, the USD/JPY briefly fell below 157, dropping over 1% intraday. Behind the yen's sharp rise is often a carry trade unwind—money borrowed cheaply in yen to buy global risk assets starts to pull back. The global stock crash in August last year was triggered by a yen carry unwind.
High-beta assets like $BTC are always the first to be thrown off in such deleveraging. I'm not saying there will be a crash tonight, but this tension must be kept taut. Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve; moves from the Bank of Japan can equally decide the fate of your positions. Are you watching the yen?🚨 $ETH — $1.154B LIQUIDATION INTENSITY ≠ $1.154B LOST! 👀
That $1.154B represents positions at risk—not realized losses or guaranteed sell orders.
📊 ETH range: $2,576 ↔ $2,822
⚠️ Large leveraged positions are stacked across the zone.
📉 If ETH approaches $2,576, forced liquidations could increase selling pressure and potentially trigger further liquidations below.
🧠 Key takeaway:
Liquidation intensity = potential positions at risk, not money already lost.
#FedHikesBTCResilience A reminder of a signal many overlook but that can overturn risk assets: the Japanese yen.
Tonight, the USD/JPY briefly fell below 157, dropping over 1% intraday. Behind the yen's sharp rise is often a carry trade unwind—money borrowed cheaply in yen to buy global risk assets starts to pull back. The global stock crash in August last year was triggered by a yen carry unwind.
High-beta assets like $BTC are always the first to be thrown off in such deleveraging. I'm not saying there will be a crash tonight, but this tension must be kept taut. Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve; moves from the Bank of Japan can equally decide the fate of your positions. Are you watching the yen?One key point: the $API3 50M figure looks more like an estimate than an exact amount. Based on the entry prices and quantities provided, the combined entry notional comes to approximately $312.6M, before accounting for current mark prices, margin requirements, trading fees, or funding costs. Key levels to monitor: - ETH: Short entry around $2,337, with liquidation near $4,000 — approximately +71% above the entry level. - BTC: Short entry around $74,443, with liquidation near $146,000 — roughly +CORE's Twitter scoop on the evening of 9.25: all positive news remains at the expectation stage
On the evening of September 25, after browsing CORE's official X, there was no major announcement that shook the scene; it was all reposted content, basically continuing the momentum from the overseas roadshow.
The official account reposted a partner's post, saying that communication with US banks is still ongoing, mainly discussing BTC-Fi compliance integration and institutional custody solutions. Note that these are just negotiations, with no signing or implementation announcements yet.
On the developer side, the DApp has version updates; native BTC staking can participate in a new round of testing, which is laying groundwork for SatPay, still in the testing phase.
Community admins in the comments were chased by overseas users asking about token unlocks and mainnet performance, only saying the roadmap won't change, but still cannot give a clear launch date for SatPay.
Now the overseas community is split in two, with completely opposing views.
The bulls' logic is straightforward: business talks in the US haven't stopped, the BTC-Fi story is still alive. The market retraced to the 0.02335 SuperTrend support on the 15-minute chart, price held, and they believe it's just a consolidation phase waiting for news to trigger a move.
⚠️ All news is still in the expectation fermentation stage, with no concrete results yet, combined with token unlock selling pressure, the narrative-driven market has high uncertainty. $BTC #OKX星球话题来啦 我們來看一下以太幣的部分。 現價約 2,694。今天小漲一點，過去 24 小時高點大概到 2,740 附近又回來。看日線，它跟比特幣一樣，還在前面突破之後的修正裡面，沒有走出明確方向。 這邊沒有特別的訊號出來，我的建議就是再觀察一下，不要輕易操作。大框架沒變，多單還是等區間底部，大概 2,400 到 2,500 再考慮，價格回到那個開單空間才進，止損一起掛好；沒回來就等，不用急。 它跟比特幣連動很高，大盤在回調修正，它就跟著修。這種時候最容易手癢想做點什麼，但位置沒到，進去就只是在賭方向。等得住，才有機會在好位置上車；今天山寨在輪動，以太只是小漲，也不用因為別人漲就跟著急。 籌碼面上，美國現貨以太幣 ETF 最新落定的是 9 月 24 日，淨流入大約 6,600 萬美元，連續第五個交易日流入；9 月 25 日的數字還沒出來。合約這邊，OKX 上以太永續資金費率小幅偏正，在正常範圍，沒有過熱。承接還在，但資金面偏多跟現價能不能開單，還是兩件事，不要因為看到流入就急著追。 消息面上，美債殖利率跟美元都在高檔，市場對 Fed 繼續升息的預期還沒散，這會壓著風險資產。另外 Bitget 被盜的Don't just focus on the crypto circle, look up and check out the neighboring AI and storage sectors.
Tonight, the US stock storage sector broadly rose, with Micron, SanDisk, and SK Hynix all soaring. Bank of America also raised AMD's target price from 620 to 720. Hot money is getting more and more hyped in the AI narrative, and this is like grasshoppers on the same rope as $BTC — the same batch of risk appetite money, rising together and falling together.
What I fear most when playing cards is everyone at the table going All in on the same hand. The more aggressively AI stacks up, once funding costs can't hold, the sharper the pullback will be. This isn't a call to short, but a reminder not to treat this wave as risk-free. Are you adding or reducing your AI stocks?PMI surged to 58.4, directly wiping out rate cut expectations. The 10-year bond yield topped around 5.11, and BTC, as a non-yielding asset, is being drained. After breaking below 85,000, the massive long liquidation cluster above 86,184 has been pierced, and the liquidation map clearly leans bearish.
Just turned into a backstreet and parked the car sideways, a collection SMS popped up again, I pressed the screen off and continued watching the market.
The MACD green bars shortening only indicates deceleration, RSI is still in the neutral zone, so it’s not oversold at all, meaning limited rebound space. Current price is around 83,307; a rebound to 84,200–84,800 is a short entry zone. Place stop-loss defense above 86,200; if it effectively stands back above the liquidation cluster, admit the mistake and exit.
Take profit first looks at 81,000; if broken, then 79,500. After breaking below 82,500, don’t chase shorts; wait for a rebound to enter again.
$BTC
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
@OKX星球 Something worth watching today if you're trading SOL:
A significant portion of Solana options open interest is expiring.
Reported key strike areas include $90, $105 and $125.
SOL is currently around $118.
That puts the $125 area particularly close to the current market.
Don't treat options expiry as a guaranteed directional signal.
Instead, watch how price behaves as liquidity around these levels changes.Tonight's group teaching process post sharing.
This time, the Bitcoin $BTC trend is judged through the resistance of the trading system and the large structure. Many people can't find a basis for making trades here, and there are various opinions on where the resistance is. I hope this article will be helpful to you.
This method has traces of Chan theory, considered a kind of Chan theory, along with some classical retracement analysis.
(This type of analysis often merges trends and better follows the large structure, which is also the reason for the analysis below.)
First, let's look at the main resistance zone, see Figure 3. My current target is to try an extremely small entry range around 81800, with a stop loss of about 400.
Let's look at the large structure for the reason. We can see that we merge small trends into a large trend, which fits the situation from both the 4-hour level and the daily chart (Figures 1 and 2). At this time, the front of the blue line is the highest point, and then the market progresses on the large structure, only reaching the second highest point. In the recent days' large structure, the bulls are in a slightly weak phase.
This also fits pure naked K analysis. After the initial large bullish candle on the 4-hour chart in Figure 1, several bullish candles successively shorten, then the bears test, bulls counterattack, then the pullback is still resisted, followed by bears gaining strength.
Note that currently, the weekly large structure and the daily overall still favor the bulls, so this is viewed as a retracement to find a reliable support for going long.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ $XAU
The market slightly lifted but lacked follow-through, shorted midway at 4295, stopped at 75, 20 points, 4000-dollar support zone! Last fall, an old classmate pulled me into a group chat.
Every day someone posted screenshots,
saying how much they earned today.
I kept watching and got itchy hands,
secretly bought some $BTC.
Right after buying, it started to drop.
During that time, I even smoked less.
At night, lying in bed, I kept wanting to check my phone.
After nearly three months of endurance,
I finally broke even.
Quickly sold it,
made enough for a hotpot meal.
I became more sensible.
Now I only use spare money to buy $ETH.
If it drops, I don’t add more.
If it rises, I don’t chase.
The calls in the group,
I treat them like comedy.
If they were really that accurate,
I’d be quietly making money myself.
I also tried $SOL,
it’s really fast,
my heart couldn’t keep up.
Held it for two days and sold.
Sleep well at night.
This stuff,
playing with spare money is fine.
Borrowing money to rush in is a trap.
Don’t always think about getting rich overnight.
First, think about what to do if you lose everything.
I rarely check the market now.
Work when I should work,
sleep when I should sleep.
Earnings are luck,
losses are tuition fees.
Living steadily is better than anything else.#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 我們來看一下比特幣的部分。 現價約 83,890。今天整體是漲跌互見，比特幣這邊反而小跌一點，過去 24 小時大概在 83,400 到 85,300 之間震。看日線，它還是在前面衝高之後的回調、修正裡面，沒有走出新的方向。 這邊沒有特別的訊號出來，所以我的建議就是再觀察一下，不要輕易操作。大方向的框架沒變：這波上漲要說結束，還是要看真正跌破 74,000，在那之前不輕易看空；多單的話，還是在 78,000 或 80,000 附近埋伏，價格回到那邊才進，止損一起掛好。現價在中間，不追多，也不急著空。 回調本身不可怕，可怕的是在沒有訊號的地方一直進進出出，被來回洗到心態崩。沒訊號，不動也是一種操作。 今天盤面比較有表現的是山寨，Solana、瑞波、狗狗都有彈，比特幣反而在休息。這不代表比特幣轉弱，比較像資金在輪動；但也不代表它等一下就會跟上，一樣看位置說話，不要因為山寨漲就急著去追大餅。 籌碼面上，美國現貨比特幣 ETF 最新落定的是 9 月 24 日，淨流入大約 1.9 億美元，連續第六個交易日流入；9 月 25 日美東這一天還沒收完，數字還沒出來，先不硬湊。合約這邊，OKX 上比特幣永When looking at the rebound, don't just focus on how many points it has risen; first see who is leading the rally and whether volume is supporting it.
Today $SOL led the rebound with over a 4% gain, $ETH followed with a 1% rise, but $BTC basically moved sideways — this is not a healthy broad rally, it's capital searching for elasticity in altcoins while the leaders haven't taken over. Be especially cautious with rebounds on low volume; a rebound without volume support is mostly just bears catching their breath, not a trend reversal.
My principle is simple: if the rebound structure isn't confirmed, I don't change direction. Wait for it to gain volume and hold steady before talking about a reversal. Do you think this wave is a rebound grab or a catch of a falling knife?This wave of $SOL is rising a bit slowly, moving a small step each day, just like clocking in for work. I checked this morning, it was green, but just a tiny bit green.
Many people dislike the slow pace and grumble while switching to chase coins with explosive gains. I’m not switching. When it’s really time to sell, the market won’t look like this; there will be volume spikes, sharp rallies, screens full of profit-taking posts, and retail investors lining up to buy. This slow grind means chips are slowly changing hands, from those who can’t hold to those who can. No one is dumping large amounts downward, which is a good thing.
A few years ago, I used to chase the sharp rallies, feeling pumped like I was on a rocket. But I always ended up standing on the peak, getting cut right before dawn. Later, I learned to be smarter and only go for these slow grinds. The rise is slow, but every bit of profit is kept.
Grinding markets test patience more than vision. The candlestick charts look boring, but chips are changing hands daily, making the base stronger and stronger. Those eager to make quick money have mostly left; those remaining plan to hold for a while. Selling pressure is getting lighter, making the subsequent rise easier.
For those itching to do T trading, a word of advice: in grinding markets, nine times out of ten, you’ll lose chips on the wrong trade, gaining a little but losing a big position.
$SOL is currently in this kind of grinding phase. When the day comes with volume surges and big bullish candles, and screens are full of profit posts, then it’s not too late to talk about selling. For now, holding is better than anything else.$ENA missed out! Frustrating!! I studied it a while ago and even mentioned in a post that $ENA might perform well later, but I still couldn't make up my mind to go long and missed this rapid surge. Looking back now, it has already risen 300% from the bottom, and the bullish momentum is still strong. The outlook remains optimistic, but the current cost-performance ratio isn't as good, and chasing the high risks getting stuck. The key factor for whether it can continue to rise will depend on whether there is any positive news soon, but being stuck in this awkward position of neither high nor low is really a bit uncomfortable! WAY Tracking｜Yesterday observed support at 1,500, ZEC has returned to 1,590 today: Is it time to chase now?
Yesterday I mentioned that although the news around ZEC is mostly positive, the real key is not to rush in but to see if anyone is willing to support around 1,500 on the pullback.
The lowest point today was about 1,491, without a direct collapse, then it rebounded back to around 1,590. This indicates initial buying interest around 1,500 and confirms the direction observed yesterday.
But this does not mean it’s safe to chase longs now.
ZEC’s intraday volatility remains high, with resistance in the short term around 1,600–1,620. If it breaks above but cannot hold, it’s easy to see another spike and drop; plus, BTC is still consolidating around 83,800, so even if ZEC is strong, it’s hard to be completely unaffected by the overall market.
I will be watching two scenarios next:
🟢 After a pullback to 1,530–1,550, it holds and then strengthens again.
🟡 Breaks through 1,620 and does not immediately fall back, confirming resistance has turned into support.
If it falls below 1,500 and the rebound is weak, be cautious that yesterday’s support was just a short-term bounce.
Tonight at 20:30 there is the US durable goods orders report, and at 22:00 consumer confidence and inflation expectations data. Before the data release, rather than chasing prices in the middle of the range, it’s better to wait for the market to show a clear direction.
Will you wait for a pullback, wait for a breakout, or want to chase now?
The above is market observation and does not constitute investment advice.
#ZEC #BTC #WAY追蹤 #交易風控 #OKX今天这盘面，说实话有点群魔乱舞的意思，小市值拉起来一个比一个狠，但能不能接住是另一回事。 $QI 24h +201.2%，一天翻两倍，这种走势我不追，典型的资金盘节奏，进去就是给前面的人抬轿子，看戏就行。 $PHA 24h +45.0%，隐私赛道又被人翻出来炒了，涨得挺急，但这种老币突然暴动，多半是消息面驱动，追高要小心。 $ARK 24h +25.2%，这货沉寂很久了，突然拉这么一下，我看就是超跌反弹加蹭热点，持续性存疑，别上头。 $XPL 24h +19.8%，新面孔开始有资金关注了，涨幅不算夸张，可以放观察位，但别急着冲。 $QNT 24h +17.5%，老牌跨链概念，走得比较稳，这种涨法反而踏实点，回踩可以看看。 $CHIP 24h +16.8%，小币种跟风拉升，量能一般，典型的板块轮动尾声票，我不碰。 $NEAR 上CoinGecko趋势榜了，公链老将最近动作不少，热度回来了但价格还没大动，值得盯一下。 $EDEL 也在趋势榜上，新项目热度冲得猛，这种刚冒头的要防一手出货，别当接盘侠。 $ONDO 趋势榜常客了，RWA叙事一直有人买单，基本面还行，回调是机会不是风险。 $BPTonight, the USD/JPY fell below 157, and the three major US stock indices opened higher. The comment section is once again shouting "risk-on is back, $BTC is about to take off." For those who play cards, they are most wary of such a one-day tailwind.
My bearish foundation these past two days has never been a certain candlestick, but the interest rate environment: the 10-year US Treasury yield is still above 5%, and money is flowing into the "risk-free 5%". A one-day dollar pullback and stock market rally cannot change this underlying level.
What really needs attention is not whether it rose today, but when interest rates will truly turn around. Until then, I only regard the rebound as a rebound. What do you think, is this a reversal or just a breather? 今天下午4点（UTC 08:00），Deribit上$159亿的比特币期权已经正式结算完毕（篇96、99、101已详细分析到期前的结构）。现在真正的问题是：期权到期之后，BTC通常会怎么走？ 第一，历史数据给出了清晰的统计规律。 官方知识库中"比特币期权交割日对价格的影响"条目提供了关键数据：交割完成后对冲压力解除，市场出现"Gamma释放"，价格回归原有趋势或基本面驱动，短期扰动通常在3-5个交易日内消化。 更关键的是方向性规律：看涨期权占优时交割后上涨概率约63%，看跌期权主导时下跌概率约58%；牛市中大额交割后多延续涨势，震荡或回调期易现短期下跌但难改中长期趋势。 本次到期的结构是：看涨/看跌比0.69（看涨占优）、55%的看涨期权已处于实值状态、最大痛点75,000远低于现价84,000+——按历史规律，交割后上涨的概率约为63%。但这里有一个重要前提："牛市中"。当前BTC处于什么阶段？从58,525的6月低点反弹至87,381（+49%），刚突破50周均线（Galaxy Research确认），Tom Lee宣布"牛市已至"（篇99）——如果市场接受"牛市"定性，那么63%If only every trade could be profitable… Three trades. Three completely different outcomes: One took profit. One is being held stubbornly. And one is still sitting deep in the abyss. $ETH short: I admit defeat. Entered at 2696, closed at 2676, locking in +67% / +18U. After three consecutive short trades, this time I finally chose to take the profit. With 100x full position, the profit isn’t huge—barely enough for a hotpot meal. 😂 But profit that’s actually in your pocket is still profit. Then I already rehearsed with this 1099-DA thing last year in advance.
At the time, I was quite optimistic: the exchange reports income, I just fill in the cost basis on my side, and the profit and loss would automatically come out, saving a lot of trouble.
But the result was, the form only showed the sale amount, and the cost column was left blank.
I spent the whole night going through hundreds of transaction records—gas fees, cross-chain, airdrops, swaps—I had to reconcile everything myself, one by one.
The IRS said brokers won’t report cost basis until 2026, which means for the next two tax seasons, retail investors still have to act as their own market makers and do their own bookkeeping.
The lesson is: don’t expect the platform to calculate everything clearly for you; in the end, you have to handle all the on-chain stuff yourself.
Let’s see if next year’s form really adds a cost column.
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 $HYPE Last summer, my cousin pulled me into a group chat.
Every day, someone was posting profit screenshots.
I kept watching and got itchy hands.
Secretly bought some $BTC.
After buying, it started to drop.
During that time, I even quit milk tea.
Lying in bed at night, I kept wanting to check my phone.
Later, after almost two months of endurance,
I finally broke even.
Quickly sold it off,
made enough for a spicy hot pot meal.
I became clear-headed.
Now I only use spare money to buy $ETH.
If it drops, I don’t add more.
If it rises, I don’t chase.
The calls in the group,
I treat them like comedy.
If they were really that accurate,
I’d have quietly made a fortune myself.
I also tried $SOL,
it’s really fast,
my heart couldn’t keep up.
Held it for two days and sold.
Sleep well at night.
This stuff,
playing with spare money is fine.
Borrowing money to rush in is a trap.
Don’t always think about getting rich overnight.
First, think about what to do if you lose it all.
I rarely check the market now.
Work when I should work,
sleep when I should sleep.
Profits are luck,
losses are tuition fees.
Living steadily is better than anything else.#财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒
#美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温
#Muse加速扩张，MetaAI投入或迎来变现 One important distinction: the $API3 50M figure appears to be rounded/estimated. Using the entry prices × quantities you provided gives roughly $312.6M of entry notional, before considering current mark price, margin, fees, or funding.
What I would watch
ETH: $2Z ,337 short → liquidation around $4,000. That's roughly +71% from entry.
BTC: $74,443 short → liquidation around $146,000. That's roughly +96% from entry.#FedHikesBTCResilience #CostcoBeatsMicronNext #USTreasuryYieldsRise 今天凌晨，一个比BTC期权到期更重大的事件正在债券市场上演——但它几乎没有被加密圈注意到。 第一，美国30年期国债收益率触及5.446%，创2004年6月以来最高水平。 今日头条转载环球市场播报确认了这一数据：20年期美债收益率升至5.560%（+0.71%），10年期升至5.195%（+0.62%），5年期5.066%（+0.78%）。整条美债收益率曲线正在同步上移至20年来未曾见过的水平。 更值得警惕的是：费城联储主席保尔森今天（9月25日）公开表示，"若经济走势符合预期，美联储可能需要进一步加息以推动通胀回归2%目标。"这是继威廉姆斯（篇93）之后，第二位FOMC委员在一周内明确释放加息信号。保尔森是2026年的FOMC投票委员，她支持上周的25bp加息，并认为"在通胀持续高企、回落进展有限的背景下，风险平衡已发生变化"。CME FedWatch现在显示10月加息概率接近75%。 第二，日本国债市场同步"崩溃"。 21经济网今天报道：日本10年期国债收益率一度升至3.115%，创1996年8月以来30年零1个月的新高。 日本共同社指出，这是受美国长期国债收益率上升影响，市场担忧原去年牛市的时候，我做 SOL 就亏了5万多。老婆受不了每天无休止的争吵，最后我们离婚了。 今天再看看自己的持仓： IP：亏损 8,000 CORE：亏损 8,000 CFX：亏损 10,000 SOL：又亏了 58,500 每天熬夜盯盘，脑子里想的只有两个字：回本。 可没想到，亏损的窟窿却越补越大。 我曾经以为自己是在交易，实际上却是在拿人生赌博。 因为不甘心接受已经发生的亏损，被沉没成本困住，最后把自己的生活也搞得一团糟。 兄弟们，千万不要走我的老路！ 高杠杆和死扛亏损仓位，只会让你一步步陷入深渊。 现在，我只想找一份稳定的夜班工作，踏踏实实地赚钱，慢慢把欠下的债还清。 钱没了可以慢慢挣，生活也可以重新开始。 活着，比什么都重要。 $BTC $SOL #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布9.25 $BTC Data Overview
Long and short positions both suffer! Before the $15.6 billion options expiration, the 84,000 defense line repeatedly changed hands.
Current price around 84,600-85,200 USDT, 24h increase about +0.3%~+2.0%, intraday dipped to 82,945 before a V-shaped rebound, with a high point reaching 85,239. 24h total network liquidations about $335 million, bulls account for 63% ($213 million), shorts liquidated $122 million, both sides suffered large-scale liquidations, with 82,597 people liquidated.
Macro pressure continues to intensify. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.207%, the 30-year touched 5.47%, both hitting multi-year highs, with the October rate hike probability rising to 67.5%-75%. Multiple Federal Reserve officials collectively hawkish overnight.
ETF net inflows for 6 consecutive days. On September 24, net inflow was $190.7 million, IBIT led with $162.6 million, totaling about $2.84 billion over 6 days. Binance single-day net outflow exceeded 13,800 BTC, platform reserves dropped from 705,000 to 685,000 BTC in 4 days.
Today's focus: $15.6 billion options expiration. About 182,000 contracts settle today at 8:00 UTC, put/call ratio 0.71, maximum pain point at 76,000. Coinglass shows that breaking above 88,267 triggers short liquidation intensity of $1.401 billion; falling below 80,259 triggers long liquidation intensity of $1.345 billion.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #Muse accelerates expansion, MetaAI investment may usher in monetization. Folks, Meta's moves at the Connect conference are no longer just about hyping the AI concept; they are genuinely paving the way to monetize AI.
Let's first look at what they've done. They launched the standalone AI device Muse Charm, integrated Muse into smart glasses, and added service connections with retail giants like Walmart, Best Buy, and Gap. JPMorgan directly stated that Muse has the potential to become the most widely used consumer AI application after ChatGPT. Driven by this expectation, Meta's stock price has strengthened significantly since September, with its market value approaching $2 trillion.
Let me translate the core logic behind this for you. Previously, people worried that Meta's AI efforts were a bottomless money pit. Now, by combining hardware and services, they've turned the AI Agent into an entry point that helps you shop. You say a command to the glasses or small device, and it places an order for you at Walmart. This is no longer just a chat tool; it directly links traffic and transactions.
But don't just look at the thief eating the meat and ignore the thief getting hit. The market has already priced in very high expectations for Meta's AI investment returns, so the risk of overvaluation is right in front of us. The most critical next step is whether the Muse ecosystem can truly generate solid revenue through subscription fees or transaction commissions. Selling hardware alone cannot support a $2 trillion valuation.
This also reflects on our crypto circle. The deep integration of AI and consumer hardwareEarnings Observer: Walmart's Results Released, Oracle Takes Over
Walmart's earnings report laid out the resilience of U.S. retail on the table. Total revenue reached 172 billion, up 6.8%, e-commerce business grew by 22%, and gross margin also improved. People are still spending, just more selectively; inflation stickiness won't dissipate quickly, so the Fed's rate cut pace will be delayed, and BTC will remain trapped in the interest rate expectations cage in the short term.
Next week is Oracle's turn. It tests another line: whether cloud infrastructure and AI orders can continue to translate into revenue. Last quarter, Oracle grew by 4%, Microsoft Cloud by 3%, and the cloud computing sector has already priced in optimistic sentiment. If Oracle's earnings exceed expectations and the AI infrastructure narrative continues to heat up, the computing power and electricity logic behind BTC will also benefit. If it falls short, tech stocks will be pressured, and BTC won't escape the correlation.
Currently, BTC is tugging around 92,000, with dense selling pressure between 95,000 and 96,000 above, and 90,000 as a short-term defense line below. Walmart proved consumption hasn't collapsed, implying a high probability the Fed will hold steady in November, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains pressured above 4.8%. In this environment, it's difficult for BTC to break out into a one-sided trend. Oracle's earnings report is the next trigger point, but don't rush to bet before the data lands. Wait for the direction to become clear before making a move. $BTC $ETH $SOL
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
What pushed BTC down was not the rate hike, but an economic data report.
▪️ On 9/24, stronger-than-expected business activity data pushed the 10-year US Treasury yield to 5.196% (the highest since 2007)
▪️ October rate hike pricing rose from 40.1% to 69.7%; BTC hit an 8-month high of 87,397 on 9/21
▪️ On 9/24, BTC dropped 3.8%, longs were liquidated for 270 million; on the same day, ETF net inflows were 190.7 million
The divergence is not about whether BTC has become insensitive to interest rates, but that the money hit by rates and the money not hit are not the same. The liquidated positions are borrowed funds, while the incoming funds are cash on the books.
From 9/17, six days of zero ETF outflows: 9/21 single-day 999 million, 9/22 still 715 million. But the cumulative amount until 9/23 only turned positive for the first time in 2026, about 320 million.
So the question "Can institutional funds maintain the rhythm?" is off: this is not a rhythm, it is wiping out more than nine months of accounts at once. The only thing that can break six consecutive positives is: the first net outflow.
There will be another rate hike landing. Are you betting that the allocation side can withstand it, or that the first net outflow will come first?🔥 The most common mistake these days is mistaking "consolidation" for "an imminent trend reversal."
🧠 BTC has not yet completed a valid breakout, so my approach is simple: if the range isn't broken, continue trading within the range; watch the upper boundary for breakout strength and the lower boundary for support strength, and do not preemptively bet on a trend before confirmation.
📈 $ETH is currently the line I prefer to keep observing for bullish momentum. The long position of 【70 ETH】 currently has an unrealized profit of about 【19,990U】, with key support at 【2626】. If the short-term holds above 【2670】, first target is 【2706】; only after a volume breakout will I look toward 【2750—2800】; if it falls below 【2626】, the bullish logic needs to be reassessed.
🟢 ZEC is in a strong consolidation. As long as 【1500】 holds, short-term upward moves can be watched; after breaking 【1655】, look for further upside; if a pullback occurs, it is better to wait for support around 【1530—1500】 rather than chasing the rising candles.
📉 SNDK’s structure is relatively weak, with clear selling pressure after the rally. Focus first on the 【1700】 support; only consider extending to 【1900】 after reclaiming 【1800】; if it breaks below 【1700】, it’s better to stay out and wait for new opportunities.
🎯 So my core principle now is: if the range isn’t broken, don’t bet early; after breakout confirmation, follow the trend. **Markets happen every day, but high leverage leaves no room for mistakes. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ " 截至目前，OKX现货 ONDO 报价 $0.5482，24小时涨幅达到 27.34%。 同期 BTC 和 ETH 小幅下跌，ONDO 的上涨主要集中在 Ondo 宣布 Intelligent Portfolios 之后，呈现出明显的独立行情特征。 1️⃣ 从单一证券上链到资产配置上链 首批产品包括： BLKHIon： 打包收益型配置 BLKDIGon： 平衡增长型配置 BLKGRWon： 高增长型配置 这些产品将不同配置策略整合为单一代币。 底层持仓、资产权重以及定期再平衡信息均可在链上查看，同时支持转移或接入 DeFi。 RWA 的产品形态正在从“单一证券上链”向“资产配置上链”演进，但实际需求规模仍有待验证。 2️⃣ BlackRock 的角色与产品限制 BlackRock 仅提供非全权委托的模型投资策略，并不负责产品发行、管理或运营。 产品由 Ondo 执行，仅向获批地区符合资格的非美国投资者开放。 3️⃣ 关键问题：ONDO 代币能否捕获价值？ 更重要的是，目前 ONDO 主要承担治理功能。 新投资组合产生的申购规模和费用，并不会自动流向 ONDO 代币持有者。 因此，产品增长表面红彤彤，底下却在悄悄换座位 🍓 这波上涨，真的是风险偏好回来了，还是只是少数币在撑场面？ BTC摸到2700附近的高点，但更大级别的85000始终没碰到，振幅偏大、方向向上。我手里只留了五分之一仓位，中途其实动过全清的念头，结果睡过去没看，醒来发现已经回本还有浮盈。这种"侥幸守住"的感觉，比赚钱本身更值得记一笔。 真正让我在意的不是BTC，是ZEC。弹性大、波动大，我打算用五分之一仓位做短线，一边买一边找机会空。这种打法本身就说明一件事：现在的钱不是在无差别扩散，而是在挑弹性最好、故事最顺的那几个点集中下注。 看多的一侧很清晰。趋势向上，大级别没破位，山寨里像ZEC这种高波动品种开始有人愿意接，说明愿意承担风险的边际资金还在场内。只要BTC不跌回关键区间，板块强弱会继续轮，强势品种先走。 但风险也藏在这里。BTC冲高但够不到更高整数关口，振幅放大往往意味着多空分歧在加大，而不是单边笃定。如果领涨的只是少数高弹性币，而BTC和ETH没有跟上，那这不是风险偏好扩散，更像是一次收缩后的局部抱团。一旦龙头歇脚，弹性最大的那个往往也跌得最快。 我自己的节奏是：仓位不重，不追高，把ZEC当短21% of Americans are stuck waiting for tax forms
New IRS regulations have been implemented: exchanges only report how much you sold, not your cost basis.
The data looks like this: trades in 2025, brokers report income but not cost. Cost basis will only be added in 2026.
What are they betting on: that you can’t calculate it correctly and end up paying tax twice. Even if you don’t receive a 1099-DA, you still have to report it, says the IRS.
Common pitfalls for retail investors: waiting for forms leads to extensions, and even when forms arrive, some parts are still missing.
Who is the counterparty? It’s the platform that charges you fees but doesn’t provide your cost data.
My position is small; I’ve been liquidated and held on, but taxes are harsher than liquidation. Liquidation means losing money; this means losing money and having to pay tax on it again.
#稳定币新规推进，支付结算加速落地
#美股探索代币化与全天候交易 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 $HYPE Friday night session flow report — ETF inflows continued for another day, but $BTC on this 1H chart moved down first.
SoSoValue recorded a net inflow of about 191 million USD into spot ETFs on 9/24 Eastern Time, marking the sixth consecutive day; IBIT led with about 163 million, FBTC followed with about 12.86 million, totaling roughly 2.8 billion USD over six days. However, OKX spot's daytime high touched 85258, now hovering around 83840, with the 24h low still at 83387 — money is coming in, but the price has left some behind.
Spot 24h trading volume is about 480 million U. First, let's see if 83500/83380 can hold; above that, 84500 needs to be reclaimed before moving forward. $ETH is around 2690, so don't recklessly add leverage on either side.
$BTC $ETH #BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #DataAnalysis #ETF #CapitalInflow #FridayNightSession #RiskWarning
The above is only personal observation and does not constitute investment advice. Contracts carry risks; enter the market cautiously.#霍尔木兹重开现转机，油价风险溢价会降吗？
A breakthrough appears in the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, will the oil price risk premium decrease?
On September 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi confirmed during the UN General Assembly that a new negotiation draft had been submitted to the US, proposing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days on conditions including cessation of all hostile actions, unfreezing about $12 billion in assets, lifting oil sanctions and maritime blockade. US-Iran negotiation representatives are discussing a phased agreement in New York, with the core being "navigation in exchange for unfreezing."
The market has already reacted in advance. Brent crude oil intraday losses widened to 2.3%, falling below $98/barrel; WTI dropped 2.5% to $92.25. Analysts say that as expectations for Gulf supply restoration rise, the market is easing some geopolitical risk premiums.
But the premium decline is sentiment-driven, not structural. Both the US and Iran "are unwilling to make the first concession," with the US claiming to "hold the advantage and is in no rush to reach an agreement," and Iranian officials admitting the possibility of diplomatic resolution is "very small." Brent still retains a larger maritime route premium than WTI because the supply disruption risk at Hormuz has not truly disappeared.
Sentiment can be repriced in a day, but supply restoration requires both sides to actually sign. What do you think? Let's discuss in the comments. $BTC $ETH $ZEC 🔥 After $BTC dropped back near 【84,000】, one data point is actually more worth watching than the candlestick chart — ETF funds are still flowing in.
📊 On September 24, the net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs totaled about 【$191 million】, maintaining positive inflows for the 【6th consecutive day】; among them, BlackRock IBIT contributed about 【$163 million】. The cumulative inflow over six trading days has already exceeded 【$2.8 billion】.
🧠 What does this mean? At least it indicates that after BTC retreated from around 【87,000】, institutional demand for ETF funds has not shown a clear reversal for now. The price is adjusting, but allocation funds have not withdrawn in sync; this divergence between the two is worth continued observation.
⚠️ However, there is one detail that cannot be ignored: the single-day ETF inflow has dropped from nearly 【$1 billion】 on Monday down to 【$191 million】 on Thursday. So a more accurate way to put it now is "funds are still entering," rather than "buying pressure is getting stronger."
🛡️ The real key going forward is whether price and funds can resonate. If BTC stabilizes and ETFs continue to flow in, it shows support remains; if the price continues to weaken and ETFs start to flow out, the logic is completely different.
🎯 So this time I won’t just focus on the phrase "institutions are buying." Fund flows are clues, but price is the final confirmation.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ 🔥 BTC has retreated from above 【87,000】, and the price is cooling down, but a batch of funds has not yet left.
💰 On September 24, the US spot BTC ETF continued to record a net inflow of about 【$191 million】, marking 【6 consecutive trading days】 of positive inflows. Even more astonishing, BlackRock alone absorbed about 【$163 million】 in a single day, with one ETF taking up the vast majority of that day's increase.
🧩 This creates a very interesting contrast: BTC is falling from a high level, but ETFs have not simultaneously seen large-scale withdrawals. At least this indicates that the current price correction has not immediately caused this portion of funds to change their allocation direction.
⚠️ But don't rush to interpret this as "Wall Street blindly bullish." Although the cumulative inflow over these 6 days exceeds 【$2.8 billion】, the daily inflow has been declining for three consecutive days. Funds are still coming in, but the buying momentum is slowing down.
🎯 So what I’m more focused on now is this: whether ETFs can continue to maintain net inflows during BTC’s pullback. If the price keeps falling and funds start to flow out continuously, that will be a real warning signal.
👀 Brothers, do you think institutions are accumulating on dips, or is ETF money just temporarily unable to withdraw? $BTC #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 Mid-Autumn Festival sixth gold short position, took profit on the 4306 long position and reversed to short, all six trades closed.
In the afternoon, gold hit 4306, entered short immediately.
At 4295, took profit as planned, pocketed 7911 oil.
11 points range, closed at the target.
This trade is interesting: the previous long position just took profit at 4306, then reversed to short at the same level.
Not guessing the top, just acting on the signal, switching between long and short without hesitation.
The market doesn't take holidays, neither does discipline.
How many trades did you make today? Let's chat in the comments. $XAU #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 9/25 $ZEC Real-time Overview
① Current price about $1,590, 24h increase 3.2%~8.8%, the highest gain among major coins; market cap 26.3 billion ranks 9th
② Reason for increase: short squeeze driven—short positions liquidated from $710K to $2.37M in a single hour, no long liquidations, a typical short squeeze; correlation with BTC only 0.26, showing an independent trend
③ Key levels: resistance at 1,605 → 1,700~1,750; support at 1,488 is the critical line (with about 44 million long leveraged positions below), if broken look for 1,220
④ Suggestion: up 98% in 30 days, RSI 63 still relatively high, daily chart shows bearish divergence. Do not chase the high. Holders should take profits in batches around 1,600; new entries wait for a pullback to 1,488 to stabilize before entering lightly, exit if broken.
$BTC $ETH #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 迁移到以太坊，或许只是 L1 经济体系彻底失败后的一种“体面退场”。 1️⃣ 8月跨分片漏洞事件 据原文描述，8月的跨分片漏洞被利用，导致约3万亿枚 ONE 被伪造，相当于流通供应量的200倍。 团队不得不回滚超过14万个区块，严重冲击了整条链的信任基础。 这也是继2022年 Horizon 跨链桥遭朝鲜黑客攻击、近1亿美元资产被盗之后，Harmony 再次面临的用户信任危机。 2️⃣ 链上经济活动几乎归零 TVL 从峰值10亿美元暴跌至15万美元，基本接近于零，链上每日手续费收入也微乎其微。 这一次，关闭旧链并全面迁移至以太坊，看起来更像是一种更体面的放弃方式。 基本面已经严重恶化，团队未来是否还会继续投入资源，也成为市场关注的问题。 链上经济活动几乎停滞，市值缩水至数千万美元级别。 验证者关闭节点，并领取总计137万美元的补偿资金，转而成为治理参与者。 结语： 对于 $ONE 持有者而言，当前的生态状况无疑令人担忧。 旧链关闭、经济活动萎缩、信任受损，未来能否通过以太坊迁移重建生态，仍存在很大的不确定性。 不要忽视风险，也不要仅凭过去的辉煌对未来抱有过高期待。 #ONE #Harm"Using Held Bitcoin $BTC as Contract Margin? Beware the "Multiplier Effect" of Double Crashes"
Many exchanges support "coin-margined contracts" or "cross-margin with multiple coins," allowing retail investors to directly convert their held Bitcoin $BTC spot into USD as margin for opening positions.
Many retail investors think this lets them hold spot while profiting from swings, but they overlook the death spiral behind it:
1. Collateral value depreciation: When the market plunges sharply, your long position itself incurs losses, while the Bitcoin spot used as margin also plummets in value simultaneously.
2. Forced liquidation line passively advances: If stablecoins are used as margin, the liquidation line is fixed; but when BTC is used as margin, the worse the coin price drops, the less your total margin becomes, and the liquidation line actively moves toward the current price like a magnet.
3. Double breach leaves nothing: A sudden sharp drop not only wipes out the contract losses but also causes the originally intended long-term held Bitcoin spot collateral to be forcibly deducted and auctioned by the system.
If you want to hold Bitcoin $BTC long-term, honestly separate your spot holdings. Never use your core collateral as margin for any leveraged trading.
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒 #美债长端利率持续攀升，融资压力升温 今晚 8 点，约 17.6 亿枚（原流通约 63%）团队/投资人悬崖解锁开闸，而且这只是跑到 2028 年 9 月的月度释放第一枪。 本来预期会砸盘，但盘面偏不按常理：解锁前就从 0.09 附近暴力推到 0.1255，24h 一度涨近 25%，成交约 1.96 亿枚；截至 21:30，OKX 现货回落到 0.110 一带，高点仍是那根 0.12557。 看懂这波预期差，盯三个细节： 不是轧空：合约资金费率大概就 0.005%，盘上没什么拥挤空头可爆，更像现货在抢筹码。 锁仓故事还没落地：官方想靠 Plasma One / Aurora 锁一年换权益来吸抛压，但新增浮筹量级摆在那，链上还没看到能对得上的净沉淀。 团队筹码悬着：早盘团队地址转出约 3 亿枚，二级市场暂时没砸出来，不等于不会砸。 交易逻辑很简单：利空落地不崩，要么是借流动性拉高派发（Exit Liquidity），要么是锁仓预期暂时托住了盘。 别被大阳线冲昏头-重点看 0.10 突破位回踩。 卖单墙堆起来、跌破 0.10，更像诱多出逃。 踩稳了，再谈锁仓叙事能不能续命。【BTC 83,857｜87K Pullback, 83K Begins to Take Control of the Pace】
BTC has pulled back from above 87K to around 83K, digesting much of the previous rapid surge. What's interesting now is that ETF funds are still flowing in, but the price hasn't continued to rise, indicating that short-term bulls and bears are rebalancing.
Key short-term focus is on 82.8K–83.5K. If this range holds and BTC climbs back above 85K, there is still a chance to retest 86K–87K; if 82.8K is decisively broken, watch for a pullback to 81K–82K.
Another point to note today: September 25 is the quarterly BTC options expiration date, with a notional size close to $16 billion, which could further amplify short-term volatility.
Regarding contracts, it’s not appropriate to assume the bottom just because BTC is at 83K. First, check if support holds; 83K is a buffer zone for bulls, while losing 82.8K means the correction may not be over yet. #美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？
This is only a market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. $BTC FIL
The Web3 storage sector is approaching a milestone tokenomics turning point: On October 15, 2026, the vesting period for the team shares of Protocol Labs and the Filecoin Foundation will officially end. This event will directly reduce the annual new issuance of FIL by about 75%, reshaping the fundamental token supply. It marks a watershed moment in Filecoin's tokenomics. After years of team share vesting concluding, 75% of new supply will be cut, significantly lowering inflation levels. Moving forward, whether the network can transition from low inflation to deflation depends on the actual adoption speed of AI storage and commercial data storage. The supply-side scenario is ready, and the demand-side outcome is being written by the entire ecosystem. The narrower the oscillation, the more agonizing it is; the breakout is all the more decisive.
BTC and ETH keep playing dead, the market pressure is strong, but they refuse to reveal their cards early.
This round of back-and-forth tug-of-war has already lasted five days.
$ETH hovers around 2618, when it touches 2656 some sell off, and when it dips to 2592 it gets bought back up. I’m still holding my long at 2632, sold half at the high yesterday, and bought back in on the support retest today, continuing to grind with it.
$BTC is even more ridiculous, fluctuating repeatedly between 79,000 and 81,000. Those chasing longs are stuck at 80,600, shorts missed the opportunity at 78,400, the back-and-forth is confusing. If by tomorrow morning it still can’t find direction, a batch of people will start doubting themselves based on the chart.
$SOL is doing its own thing, up 3 points from 148 to 153. Strong assets never care about the overall market mood; the stronger the surge, the fiercer the pullback. In this market, I just watch and don’t act.
Recently, the one-sided market kept teaching lessons back and forth, and these days of sideways trading are roasting longs and shorts alike. Ultimately, the biggest fear in a consolidation zone is frequent switching of sides—you just turn bullish and it dips slowly, you just turn bearish and it rallies sharply, and in the end your account is all lost to slippage.
No rush to add positions, keep holding longs.
Until the range breaks, all fluctuations are just tests.
The longer the sideways, the fiercer the breakout.
Bears don’t give up, bulls don’t quit, waiting for the market to reveal its cards. $BTC $ZEC $SOL
#美联储重启加息，BTC为何仍有韧性？ #财报观察员：好市多业绩超预期，美光接棒