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More than 72.7K CORE has already been permanently removed from circulation across Q1–Q3 2026: • Q1 — 15,516 CORE • Q2 — 27,264 CORE • Q3 — 29,933 CORE And Q4 has already accumulated 5,883+ CORE waiting to be burned — with that figure continuing to increase. 📉 The mechanism is what matters: Staking → Network activity → Fees → Burns → Reduced supply Price action can grab attention, but the bigger signal is whether the network keeps generating real activity and fees that translate into permanent s我們來整理一下操作上可以怎麼做吧 看法依舊不變，點位也都一樣。價格以 23:18 左右的 1H 截圖為準；週日晚上成交偏少，盤中的晃動看看就好。 ━ 比特幣（原計畫，僅供參考） 做多 83,000～83,500 止盈 86,000 加碼 81,000 停損 78,000 態度：能止盈就一定要跑，不給新的進場 深夜約 85,320，OKX 23:00 那根最高 85,468.3 ━ 以太幣 空單 2,780 附近，風控各自掌握 多單 2,650 輕倉，2,600 加碼 多單停損：跌破 2,400 深夜約 2,698.5，跟下午差不多 ━ Solana 做空 120 附近 加碼 125 停損 140 深夜約 121.86，碰到 121.9～123.3 紅區下緣 ━ 狗狗幣 做空 0.1 加碼 0.11 停損 0.12 深夜約 0.0942，站上 0.0932 的 EQH ━ 瑞波幣 做多 1.5 附近 止盈 1.57 → 1.63 加碼 1.45，或再低到 1.4 停損：跌破 1.3 深夜約 1.5069，在 1.5 上方一點 OKX 帳戶多空比（傍晚 17:00 → 深夜 23:00）：Today’s market reaction gave both crypto and US equities a small boost, but the bigger story is how quickly the economic picture has changed. ① The September backdrop has shifted At the September meeting, the Fed had just delivered a 25bp rate cut, while the debate was still centered on what policy would look like next. Then October employment data came in much weaker, with payrolls rising by only 29K. Expectations for another hike also dropped sharply. That’s a major change in just a few weeks.$BTC Bitcoin has twice come close to breaking new highs, perhaps this position on the chart is exerting pressure on it!
I just checked the K-line trends at various levels, and as I was about to summarize, I found a particularly interesting detail.
That is, on the monthly K-line level, the Bollinger Band middle track price was around 87300 in September. In October, the price is around 87360.
The Bollinger middle track price has always been the dividing line between bulls and bears, and the monthly Bollinger middle track is even more critical for long-term trends.
Last month, the coin price broke through the middle track but soon lost it and fell back below the middle track. Last night, the coin price also experienced a rise but fell short of the middle track, never breaking through.
The fact that large selling pressure appeared twice coincidentally at this position indicates that either bearish or bullish funds are pressing the price here, and it is generally believed that the price cannot go higher.
Therefore, if the price approaches this position again, I think the effect will basically be similar to the previous two times.
Not only might the indicator at this point attract bearish suppression, but the dense cost zone of trapped positions above is also one of the factors that deter bulls. Moreover, the price has been rising continuously without a deep pullback or shakeout, with too many bullish profit-taking positions. Many factors are unfavorable for the price to break through to a higher level.
I believe it will be difficult to break through this position in the short term. Even if it does, it is likely to be a false breakout mainly for testing.
Monthly Bollinger middle track price 87360, previous high 87600, dense trapped position cost zone 88000-89000, the lowest price in previous months rose by 50%, just around 87000. Many data points lie ahead and need to be digested. Even if this position breaks through, it will be hard to hold in the short term.
But after calculating, there is only about a 2% space above before reaching this difficult-to-break point, which may not satisfy profit expectations. So, according to my trading habits, I would not chase it.
The above is just my personal opinion for reference only! $UNI spot trading fees go to LPs and the treasury, no fee switch for UNI; perpetual open interest is 1.295 billion, volume ratio 11.9x, this derivatives business is the real liquidity and revenue engine.
Regulatory options have gone through three rounds, the real valuation support comes from on-chain real usage; breaking through 10.2 opens up space, currently 9 is the central oscillation.
On-chain usage is the bottom, position at 40%. Defend 8.7 to push to 10.2, reduce positions if it breaks 8.3. UNI’s story is not based on fee switch, but on that 11.9x perpetual volume on-chain.Starting capital: 40U Target: 15,000U Current profit: +156U Crypto market today: BTC is back from the dead, ETH is holding the line, ZEC is cooling down, and SOL is pretending nothing happened. 😅 🟠 $BTC — Resurrection BTC spent the weekend moving sideways around $84.8K–$85K before briefly jumping above $87K after the latest US jobs data. Then Treasury yields bounced sharply and took some of that momentum away. ETF flows are also sending mixed signals — inflows one day, outflows the next, then I’ve opened a full-size short on $PUMP worth 280,000 USDT. The whales have been pushing this thing higher and higher without giving bears much breathing room. But every rally eventually gets tested. $PUMP is currently around $0.00615, while today’s high reached roughly $0.00648. That’s a huge move from the $0.0039 area. Every dip has been met with buyers almost immediately. I’ll admit it — the chart is strong. But that’s exactly why I’m getting cautious. When everyone starts believing “every pulI haven’t gone broke, but I’ve paid an extremely expensive price for my mistakes. And I’ve learned one thing the hard way: A mistake is tuition. Repeating the same mistake is a choice. 1️⃣ Buying a home with too much leverage I put down roughly 30% and financed the remaining 70%. The problem wasn't simply taking a mortgage — it was buying an expensive property at the wrong time and at an inflated price. The down payment disappeared, the property value fell, and the monthly mortgage became a consLet's take a look at the DOGE section. My view remains unchanged, and the three key levels are the same. The volume was still low late Sunday night, so this update covers the changes in the evening. 【Trading Suggestion】 Direction: Short Entry: 0.1 Add-on: 0.11 Stop loss: 0.12 Around 11 PM, the price was about 0.0942, roughly 1% higher than 0.0932 at 5 PM. It's still about 6% away from 0.1, so no action is needed until then. 【Technical Analysis｜1H】 Binance DOGE perpetual, 1-hour chart, around 23:18. The latest K candle opened at 0.09395, high 0.09455, low 0.09394, current price 0.09425. The EQH that was pressing down around 0.0932 in the evening has been broken above at night and now lies below the price. There is a red P above the latest K candle at about 0.0947. Below are two price marks at 0.09315 and 0.09264, with a narrow blue band between them. The first red supply zone above remains 0.0963–0.0980, labeled as Strong High at the top, with another level above at 0.1024 to 0.1043. Looking down, the Weak Low is around 0.0900, and below that, the blue zone ranges from 0.0861 to 0.0884. OKX hourly chart: the candle at 10 PM from 0.0Good morning, fam ☀️
Day 39 of my 500U compounding journey, and total assets have now reached around 3,000U.
$ETH has been relatively quiet this weekend, but the low volume is what really stands out to me.
Trading volume is sitting near $1.5B, one of the lowest levels I’ve seen throughout this journey.
Low volume combined with tight price action usually tells me the market is waiting for a catalyst.
I’m already heavily positioned, so I’m not chasing anything here. All three are compressing around their MACD zero-line zones, which means the next 24–48 hours could be important. I wouldn't rush into a position here. The daily candle close is what matters. 🟠 $BTC — 84,900 84,433 is the short-term line in the sand. Hold above it → bulls still have room. Daily close above 85,513 → potential confirmation of a bottoming structure, with 88,000 as the next upside area. Lose 84,433 → watch 82,800, followed by 80,811. 🔵 $ETH — 2,690 2,680 is the key level. RSI is eLet's take a look at the Solana section. To be clear: the outlook remains unchanged, and the price levels are the same. On Sunday night, volume hasn't returned yet; this is a late-night data update. 【Trading Suggestion】 Direction: Short Entry: Around 120 Add-on: 125 Stop loss: 140 Around 11 PM, the price was about 121.86, nearly one point higher than the 120.9 in the evening. The price is still near the short position range around 120; the plan itself has no additions or reductions. The add-on point at 125 is still more than three points away, and 140 is even further; no need to worry about this kind of push on a holiday night. 【Technical Analysis｜1H】 Binance SOL perpetual, 1-hour timeframe, screenshot around 23:18. This candle opened at 121.81, high 122.07, low 121.60, current price 121.88, already reaching the lower edge of the red zone. That red supply zone ranges approximately from 121.9 to 123.3, with the Weak High line above around 123.7. The red P that was above the price in the evening has already been surpassed at night. Below are two narrow blue bands: one roughly from 119.0 to 119.4, the other from 119.6 to 119.9. Further below, a large blue area extends roughly from 117 to 118.3, with a strong low point at about 116.2. OKX hourly chart: eveningBinance invests $100 million in Circle, deepening USDC collaboration
A $100 million investment, 5-year partnership, 2-year lock-up period — the interests between Binance and USDC issuer Circle are further intertwined.
• Investment in Circle: Binance contributed $100 million, subscribing to approximately 1.237 million common shares at $80.84 per share.
• Continued promotion of USDC: On September 17, both parties reached a new 5-year cooperation agreement, replacing the previous agreements signed in November 2024 and August 2025. Circle pays Binance monthly incentive fees based on the proportion of USDC held through the agreed wallet infrastructure services; Binance conducts USDC promotion activities on its platform.
• 2-year share lock-up: From the delivery date, Binance and its affiliates are generally prohibited from selling, transferring, or hedging these shares, though the agreement allows exceptions for terminating commercial cooperation under specific circumstances.
The highlight of this deal is the simultaneous binding of equity and promotional benefits: Circle leverages Binance’s users and trading scenarios to expand USDC usage; Binance gains promotional incentives and also holds equity in Circle.
However, for Circle, channel expansion also incurs costs. If the revenue from new USDC business does not cover the incentive fees, growth in scale may not translate into profit growth.
What’s worth watching next is how much sustained capital retention and real usage this 5-year agreement can bring to USDC.
$CRCL There are over 2,000 $CP holding addresses, what are you all expecting A burn sounds impressive when you see the number by itself, but context matters. $CORE has a total supply measured in billions of tokens, so the real question isn't: “How much was burned?” It's: “Is the amount burned actually greater than the amount being added to circulation?” That's the part many people leave out. 🔥 Burns reduce supply. 🔓 Unlocks add supply. If scheduled unlocks continue to exceed the number of tokens being permanently removed, circulating supply can still expand despite theI'm Cige. Next week, markets will get the September meeting minutes from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Everyone will be looking for clues about the next move in interest rates. But I wouldn't overestimate the minutes. The key issue is simple: The minutes describe a decision made weeks ago — while the market is trading today's data. Since that meeting, US employment data has weakened significantly. September payroll growth came in at just 29K, while unemployment rose to The 0.16% life-or-death line, BCH and SOL both doubled, this market has my heart about to stop!
Brothers, checking my account late at night, I was almost sent off by these red numbers. Although the account is in the red, my heart is panicking. $BCH and $SOL are really fighting hard, but they have also pushed me to the very edge of the cliff.
Position update:
BCH: The true war god! Full position 10X, entry 261.02, mark 317.89, unrealized profit +177.04U, ROI as high as +178.68%! From almost zero in the deep water zone to nearly doubling now, I have truly and clearly written this "living on the edge of death" script!
SOL: Absolutely the main force! Full position 20X, entry 115.63, mark 121.80, unrealized profit +163.39U, ROI +101.47%. The trend remains strong, firmly supporting the account's base.
$ETH: Still that stubborn drag, full position 5X, entry 2718.24, mark 2697.90, slight loss -16.54U (-3.77%), completely ignoring it. $ETH $SOL $BCH
To speak from the heart: the two main positions combined have an unrealized profit of over 340U, with returns both over 100%, doesn't that feel great? But just one glance at that line — overall margin ratio, 0.16%!
What does 0.16% mean? This isn’t just walking a tightrope, it’s dancing on the Grim Reaper’s desk! 0.16%, brothers, if the market shakes even a little, or a tiny needle is inserted, this 300+ U profit along with the principal will instantly evaporate, and you might not even get time to close the position!
Having gone from 0.39% to 0.29%, and now down to 0.16%, I’ve completely transformed from the terror of "waking up at midnight to check forced liquidation" to now "selective blindness." As long as I don’t look at that ratio, I pretend this position doesn’t exist! Anyway, the profits from BCH and SOL are thick enough, at worst I just pretend this round never happened; as long as I don’t get liquidated, I haven’t lost yet!
Every time I’m crazily testing the edge of the cliff, this is probably the truest portrayal of a contract gambler.
Brothers, do you think this 0.16% position can still be held? Should I cut positions immediately to save my life, or keep my eyes closed and play dead to gamble on a big bull market?
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 As the lights come on, directly facing the long and short battles on the market.
In early October, $JTO repeatedly tested the low points without breaking, with volume shrinking on the pullback and expanding on the rebound, improving the volume-price structure. Opened a long position at 0.5518 with 50x leverage, seizing the opportunity of the bottom reversal.
The position's floating profit is 103.29%, with a mark price of 0.5632; the planned rebound rally has been realized as expected.
Short-term bullish momentum has somewhat diminished, with increased long-short divergence; the market may retest support on a pullback, so blindly adding positions is not advisable. $ETH $SAND #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 $PUMP This time I didn't buy at the lowest point; instead, I followed the strong momentum after the breakout. Entered around 0.006054, and after it pulled up to around 0.00633, the unrealized profit has already reached 2.30 times.
Several consecutive 4-hour candlesticks pushed the price up from around 0.004, with the most obvious change being the volume expanding and MACD turning red again, indicating this rally isn't just a single spike pull. The price has now reached around 0.00660, and short-term profit-taking is definitely increasing.
I won't chase to add positions at this level. As long as it doesn't fall back below around 0.0060, the strong momentum is still intact. If it can break through 0.00660, there is still room to expand further. Conversely, if volume increases at the high level but the price can't rise, I will protect profits first. Altcoins can rise quickly but will also be crushed mercilessly. $BTC $SOL #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Lately, I've been paying less attention to just the price changes of BTC and ETH.
Instead, I first look at one data point:
Has the liquidity of Stablecoins returned?
The latest data shows that the total market cap of stablecoins has surpassed $310 billion again, with over $1 billion in liquidity added in a short time.
For me, this is more worth focusing on than daily price fluctuations.
Because often, before the market starts moving, the funds have already begun to flow.
So recently, when looking at hot topics, I always first pay attention to:
• Whether Stablecoin is continuously growing;
• Whether on-chain transactions are increasing in volume;
• Which sectors are starting to attract funds;
• What large wallets have been doing recently.
I usually check these data first on Ave.ai.
Price tells you what has happened in the market.
Capital flow often tells you where the market might go next.
When you look at the market recently, do you pay more attention to candlestick charts or capital flow? Bro, look at the daily chart first. 👀 $3,000 isn't just another number. There’s a huge amount of historical supply sitting around that area. ETH previously fell from roughly $3,400 to $1,700, leaving plenty of holders who never got a clean exit. So what happens if price finally returns to $3K? Some trapped holders may simply think: “I'm finally back to breakeven — sell.” That creates overhead supply. And if leveraged traders pile in around the obvious resistance, volatility can become even moreThree Key Questions About ETH
What’s most worth watching about ETH right now isn’t whether it’s up or down, but this: the price is approaching a critical level, but are volume and capital really keeping pace?
First question: Why is the price stuck around 2700?
ETH is currently about $2700, up roughly 0.6% in 24 hours, but there’s still clear resistance between $2775 and $2800. Without volume support here, a breakout would have limited significance.
Second question: Is the market actually adding positions?
The total open interest in contracts across the network is about $18.9 billion, with no significant increase in the last 24 hours; funding rates are also close to neutral. Simply put, both longs and shorts remain restrained, with no side clearly rushing ahead.
Third question: Why is capital somewhat fragmented?
This year, ETH spot ETFs have seen cumulative inflows of about $1.5 billion, but recently some ETFs have experienced outflows, indicating that long-term capital interest remains, while short-term capital hasn’t continued chasing prices.
So the core contradiction for ETH today is clear: the price is holding, but volume and positions haven’t expanded in sync.
Key resistance above is at $2800, with support in the $2610–$2650 range.
What’s really worth watching tonight might not be which way ETH moves, but which side first rallies volume and capital together.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $ETH 🔥BTC Evening Watch｜No guessing on rise or fall, wait for confirmation
$BTC is fluctuating around $84,800, with a 24-hour trading volume of about $9.5 billion, and market sentiment remains greedy.
Funds have not formed a unified force; although there are still buy orders for the spot ETF, incremental inflows have slowed.
Bulls are waiting for a strong volume to hold above 87,000 to open up upward potential; bears are closely watching the 84,000 support—if volume breaks down below it, short-term bullish confidence will be damaged.
No need to bet on direction in advance; focus on volume-price resonance: 84,000 for support, 87,000 for breakout quality. The consolidation pattern continues, and the bull-bear battle is just beginning. #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
⚠️Market observation only, not trading adviceThe enthusiasm of large institutions buying BTC has cooled down. Last week, $2.39 billion entered the market, but early this week it has dropped to about $83 million, showing a significant shrink in inflows. Institutional funds in ETH have retreated for three consecutive trading days, totaling about $118 million, and SOL has also seen small outflows.
A ledger shows where the money went this week. On Wednesday, institutions sold about $149 million, bought back about $103 million on Thursday, and made a small purchase of about $31.7 million on Friday. ETH has had net outflows for three consecutive days, with no obvious capital return.
In short, after BTC rose to $85,000, institutions did not chase to accelerate buying; the upward momentum is still insufficient. To hold steady at $87,200, large institutions need to make substantial new purchases.
$ETH $BTC $SOL
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Brothers, today when I opened my account, I finally breathed a sigh of relief. At last, I don't have to endure that torment of half seawater and half flame anymore. Both long and short positions on BTC and ETH turned green, and DOGE's short position barely held steady. Overall floating profit is over 100 U. This rally in the market finally let me have a taste of the soup. Position update: $BTC: Finally the tough big brother! Full position 20X leverage, entry price 84,407.31, mark price 84,886.50$ETH is all about sideways consolidation and holding the base positions.
According to the cycle, this time is also close to the bottoming phase and the start of a bull market.
But I still want to wait; the market often surprises before consensus is reached.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Why does weak subjectivity require a recent checkpoint?
Proof of Work can compare historical chains based on cumulative work, but Proof of Stake must guard against a special case: early validators who exit and withdraw their stake might still use old keys to forge a long alternative history. New nodes that have been offline for a long time only see the signatures themselves and may not know that these signers have already exited, so a recent state confirmed by multiple parties is needed as a synchronization starting point.
This state is the weak subjectivity checkpoint. Nodes first confirm that a certain recent state root belongs to the recognized main chain, then independently verify subsequent blocks from there. It does not rely on a company telling the network the answer every day, but acknowledges that after long offline periods, a small amount of social information must be obtained. Multiple clients, block explorers, and independent nodes can cross-check to reduce the risk of a single source acting maliciously.
For the security of $ETH, weak subjectivity is not a hidden flaw but an explicit handling of the long-term attack surface in Proof of Stake. Node operators should know where the checkpoint comes from and avoid trusting only one download source; ordinary holders should not misunderstand it as the network being arbitrarily decided by humans at any time. Trust is limited to the synchronization entry point, and after entering the correct history, nodes still verify independently according to protocol rules.$PEPE
Near flat price, why can't a low unit price reduce risk?
The 24-hour range observed today is 0.000004218—0.000004334, with a window change of about +0.14% and a trading volume of approximately 6.04 million USDT.
Near flat price does not mean there is no risk in between. A low price per coin does not reduce the percentage loss of the same amount of capital, and the number of coins held has no necessary connection to profitability.
If it subsequently breaks above 0.000004334, holds on a pullback, and trading volume cooperates, I will raise my judgment on continuation; if it falls below 0.000004218 and the rebound cannot recover, I will lower my judgment. The above boundaries come from this observation window and need to be rechecked after market changes.$BTC at 85,000 is like a heavy brick pressing down, making it hard to breathe.
BTC is now fluctuating between 84,800 and 85,300, rising 0.2% to 0.8% in 24 hours, seemingly red but actually treading water. The 24-hour range is 84,513 to 85,409, a swing of 900 dollars in a day, with the market holding its breath for a big move.
Spot ETFs saw a net inflow of 82.9 million dollars this week, a cliff-like brake compared to 2.39 billion the previous week, with enthusiasm cooling faster than the coin price. On October 1, it rebounded with 102.7 million, and on October 2 added another 31.7 million. BlackRock's IBIT alone took in 195.6 million, while Fidelity's FBTC ran 60.7 million in the same period. Money is rotating within ETFs rather than net new inflows.
The real variable is macroeconomic. September's nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below expectations, cooling market bets on further rate hikes in October. The Nasdaq even hit a new intraday high. Although this is positive, BTC didn’t follow, indicating this is a "bearish exhaustion sideways" phase, not driven by buying pressure.
The short-term hard resistance is at 85,409, and support at 84,513 is the last line of defense. Breaking below 84,000 would break this sideways range downward. The government shutdown is entering its second week, nonfarm data is all guesswork, and the direction is like a blind box.
BTC stuck at 85,000 is like pressing the wrong elevator floor button—no momentum going up, unwilling to come down, just waiting for the wind to blow. $SAND has been a bear's ATM these past two days! 50x short positions grabbed 169.33%, precisely shorted at 0.08061, current mark price 0.07786, the entire drop was eaten up!
The trading logic is very clear: resistance at the 0.08 round number, a double top formed on the daily chart, volume shrinks and breaks support.
The real background is that the metaverse concept has cooled recently, the overall market is weak, and SAND is falling in resonance with the trend.
Next, it is recommended to take profits in batches between 0.075-0.077, don't get attached with 50x leverage, secure your capital and set stop losses.
If it rebounds to 0.08 but fails, you can keep a base position; if it breaks down, then wait and see. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $ZEC $BTC #贝森特：The rise in US Treasury yields aligns with the global trend
Core two-layer market logic
1) Traditional bearish logic (mainstream)
Global yields rise together → risk-free returns increase, raising the opportunity cost of holding cryptocurrencies, suppressing risk asset valuations, funds favor bonds, overall bearish for the crypto space.
2) Special hedging logic (differentiated scenario)
If the market interprets: global sovereign debt pressures increase simultaneously, sovereign credit collectively questioned, triggering currency devaluation trades, funds flow into hard assets like Bitcoin for hedging, which is bullish for BTC.
Breakdown by coin impact
Bitcoin BTC
• Benchmark beta asset.
• Scenario A (market accepts Besent’s view): excludes US sovereign crisis narrative, returns to rate tightening logic → bearish, under pressure and correction.
• Scenario B: market focuses more on global synchronized high rates and global debt pressure → hedging logic effective, BTC has safe-haven buying, oscillates and resists decline.
Ethereum ETH
More elastic than BTC.
• If yield rise dominates the market, ETH falls more than BTC;
• If hedging narrative develops, ETH’s rebound will also be stronger than BTC.
• ETH is also dragged down by ETF outflows, facing greater upward resistance.
ZEC (privacy coin) double overlay
1. Macro level: follows the overall market; under rising rate environment, small coins face more selling pressure than BTC and ETH.
2. Additional constraint: global yield rise = Europe tightening too, EU regulatory scrutiny on privacy coins will tighten simultaneously, adding another layer of regulatory risk suppressing ZEC.
Three scenario forecasts (reference for gains/losses)
Scenario 1: Market accepts Besent’s view (highest probability)
Market understands: it’s just a global interest rate cycle, not a US debt default.
• BTC: oscillating weak, -2% ~ +1% range, hard to rally strongly
• ETH: -3.5% ~ +1.5%, more volatile
• ZEC: -5% ~ +2%, high risk of sharp dips
Overall: oscillating weak, rebound height limited, difficult to have a strong one-sided rally
Scenario 2: Ignore reassurances, trade global debt risk (low probability bullish)
Market focuses on “all global sovereign yields rising,” trading sovereign credit risk.
• BTC: +2%~+5%
• ETH: +3%~+7%
• ZEC: +4%~+9% (small coin most elastic, but quick rise and fall)
Scenario 3: Yields continue to surge rapidly (clear bearish)
Long-term yields continue to break higher, liquidity tightening expectations strengthen.
• BTC: -4%~-7%
• ETH: -6%~-10%
• ZEC: -8%~-14%, privacy small coins suffer the steepest sell-off
Summary subjective view
Besent’s speech mainly serves to dispel the “US debt crisis” bullish narrative, without changing the reality constraint of high interest rates.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC 表面全是买买买，可我的仓位表却在提醒我别被热闹牵着走。 当利好密集到让人手痒时，真正该问的是：我现在的风险预算，撑得住一次假突破吗？ 今天刷到的消息确实漂亮。Visa稳定币年化结算量突破200亿美元，美联储和欧洲央行要公布9月会议纪要，仓位报告显示57%的人偏乐观。BlackRock的IBIT一个月买了15.7亿美元BTC，总持仓超过80万枚，美国现货ETF本周净流入约8290万。大资金30天囤了7.5万枚BTC，超过4万枚被转出交易所。Citi也把12个月目标从8.2万上调到11.3万。 但我盯着这些数字时，第一反应不是追，而是检查自己哪里可能犯错。 偏多逻辑很顺：供给在收紧，机构在吸，主权基金甚至卖金换BTC，情绪偏暖但还没到极端。这种结构下，回调容易被买走，山寨的弹性可能滞后于BTC和ETH，因为资金先照顾确定性。 可风险也藏在这里。ETF流入是周度数据，周中可能反复；57%乐观意味着预期已经部分计价，会议纪要若偏鹰，短线回撤会很快。大额转出交易所不全是囤币，也可能是托管迁移。Citi的目标价是12个月，不是下周。 所以我今天只做三件事： - 把追高的仓位砍掉一半，留子弹给回踩。Even though it's all an increase, some coins have already regained lost ground, while others are still far behind, meow 😼.
$TAO's recent performance is like this: although the price has returned to around 306, with a nearly 5% increase in 24 hours, looking strong, if you extend the timeframe to a week, the increase is actually only about 2%. Comparing these two numbers side by side makes the logic behind it very clear: this shows that TAO actually experienced a significant pullback in the past few days, and only just barely recovered the weekly-level decline on the most recent day.
This rebound strength is indeed commendable, indicating that there is capital supporting from below. However, saying that the next major upward wave has already started is still premature. For the upcoming market, what deserves more attention is not how fast it rises, but whether the price can steadily hold at this relatively higher level after the upward momentum slows down. If the market stalls and the price quickly falls back, giving up all the gains, then this rise at best is just a "dead cat bounce" type of rebound, not a true reversal. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 According to data from the past 10 years (2016 - 2025), Bitcoin's average increase in October is nearly 18%.
If calculated based on this average, from the current position, roughly $8,300 - $86,000, theoretically it could reach around $98,000.
However, in these ten years, the only Octobers with significant surges were October 2017 and October 2021.
October 2017: +47.8%
October 2021: +39.9%
The years with slight declines were only October 2018 and October 2025.
October 2018: -3.8%
October 2025: -3.7%
The 10-year average is pulled up by those two big surge years.
In most other years, the average increase is only about 10%.
This October has just started, and the third quarter already surged over 42%.
Meanwhile, the spot ETF has attracted over $6 billion, but inflows ended after 9 consecutive days at the end of September.
Therefore, what truly determines whether this month will close green is whether Bitcoin can firmly hold $86,000, and whether the ETF can continue to attract funds.
Historical data is only a reference, not the script for this month.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 In this market cycle, the difference in choosing which coin to invest in is significant. It cannot be summarized simply as "altcoin recovery."
$WLD has risen about 21% in a week and about 4% in 24 hours, showing a notably strong short-term performance.
At times like this, it's easiest for people to shift from "wait for a pullback" to "if you don't buy now, it'll be too late."
It's now close to 0.60; this round number can be observed, but you can't just assume a big surge after a breakout because the numbers look good.
If it quickly falls back after crossing, those who chased in will start to hesitate; if the pullback isn't deep and it can continue pushing upward, that is more convincing.
It's good to be optimistic, but controlling your position size is very important, meow.
$AAVE has risen nearly 25% in the past week and about 38% in a month, showing outstanding performance this week.
It didn't continue to surge today because it's the weekend and it has already risen for a while, so a pause is allowed. What really needs attention is whether the next pullback will erase several days' worth of gains.
Slowing down and stalling need to be distinguished by subsequent price action; don't rush to conclusions just because the gains have narrowed.
$DOGE basically hasn't risen in a week and has slightly fallen in the last 24 hours, temporarily not keeping up with this strong rally.
Those holding it might be more anxious, especially seeing other coins continuously rising.
But switching coins out of impatience might just mean switching when others are resting.
My judgment is to first acknowledge its current weakness, then watch for any new signs of strength. Continuing to hold requires reasons, and switching positions temporarily also requires reasons.Saylor tweeted tonight: More orange than ever
Is this a large-scale buy-in of Bitcoin?
Whether he buys or not seems to have little impact on the overall market trend,
but if he sells a large amount of Bitcoin, that would be somewhat stimulating.
I've written many articles about him, but never clearly explained his story.
There is a listed company whose main business (software) has long been abandoned.
Now it only does one thing: buys Bitcoin, continuously.
The coins on its books are worth more than the company itself.
Interestingly,
its stock sells for more than the coins it holds.
Paying over 10% more.
Why?
Because it can keep borrowing money and then use that money to buy coins.
What’s expensive in the market is not the coins it holds,
but this channel of borrowing and buying repeatedly.
Looking at this skillset, we mainly focus on three things.
First, where the money to buy coins comes from.
If it’s self-earned, it’s saving; if borrowed, it’s gambling.
Second, when the borrowed money must be repaid.
If it must be repaid within a year, and the price doesn’t cooperate, it has to cut losses.
If repayment is due in ten years, then it can endure.
Third, how high the interest on the borrowed money is.
The higher the interest paid, the more people are recalculating its risk.
Putting these three together, its strategy becomes clear:
Use long-term money borrowed at high interest to buy non-yielding assets.
Seeing this, you’re probably thinking, how can this keep going?
This system can only work under one premise:
The price of BTC keeps rising. 66 billion USD borrowed to fuel AI.
Grant Cardone pointed out something: giants like Meta, Google, and Amazon are relying on issuing high-yield bonds to support AI investments, with coupon rates as high as 9.75%.
In plain terms, they’d rather pay such expensive interest than risk falling behind in the AI race.
But from another perspective, who is buying these bonds?
Buyers aren’t driven by faith, but by that 9.75% return.
If AI’s execution falls short of expectations, interest rates will have to drop — at that point, will money still flow in so cheaply?
If tech stocks start calculating this, and risk appetite tightens, highly volatile assets like those in the crypto space are often the first to be drained.
This won’t have much short-term impact, but emotionally it’s a hidden risk.
The giants borrow money to fight a war of expectations. When expectations loosen, the first to run are never them, but the onlookers.
What do you think, if this AI narrative cools off, can $BTC hold up on its own?
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 $BTC To start with the conclusion: $H100 has been listed on OKX perpetual for two days, and the price is still fluctuating between 2.55 and 2.84 — this is not sideways trading, but the price discovery after listing is not yet complete.
On October 2, OKX announced the listing of $H100 perpetual (along with ACN, NKE, BWET, SECZ in the same batch). I checked the 4-hour trading volume over these two days: the first candle had 16,628 contracts, the second day 24,106 contracts, then gradually shrinking to 14,463 contracts, and the latest candle only 2,500 contracts.
What does this volume shrinkage curve indicate? The initial market makers and arbitrageurs have already set up the liquidity framework at the early stage of listing, but real speculative funds have not yet entered — everyone is waiting for a directional signal.
Compared to $ACN listed in the same batch (with trading volume over 3,000 contracts), $H100’s liquidity is clearly thinner. What does thin liquidity mean? Volatility will be amplified. If you pick the right direction, the elasticity is large; if you pick the wrong one, the pullback will be quick.
Today BTC is holding steady above 85,000. If the market continues to stabilize, the price discovery window for these newly listed coins will close faster.
Are you paying attention to $H100 now? $H100$TRUMP The logic behind my short position here is actually very simple. After the price surged to around 2.25, several rebounds failed to truly absorb the selling pressure above, and the momentum has shifted from a strong rally to a weakening consolidation.
After entering near 2.141, the current price has dropped to around 2.04, with unrealized profits reaching 2.26 times. The 4-hour chart shows continuous decline, MACD remains weak below the zero line, and volume has not shown any clear active buying.
The only short-term risk to watch for is repeated tugging around 2.00, which has been a contested level multiple times recently. If the drop is too aggressive, a rebound is likely to come first.
What concerns me more now is the strength of the rebound. If the price cannot hold steadily between 2.05 and 2.08, the bearish momentum remains. Only if it reclaims above 2.14 would this downtrend show a clear sign of change. $BTC $ZEC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 🔥 方向对了，为什么你还是没赚到钱？ 今天花旗把比特币12个月目标价从8.2万美元直接上调到了11.3万美元，上调幅度接近34%。BTC现在在85,000美元附近盘整，而链上数据告诉我们：长期持有者周度已实现利润几乎翻倍，但整体成交量依然低迷，市场还没有出现真正的广泛参与。 看到这个数据，我想起OKX星球创作者周报里一位博主说过的话： “市场最难的地方往往不是让你完全看错，而是让你方向大致没错，却很难把利润真正留下来。” 这句话扎心吗？扎心就对了。 三季度比特币涨了42.71%，创下近9年同期最佳表现，但年初至今却仍然累计下跌约4%。什么意思？意思是很多人在年初看对了方向，却在中间的震荡里被甩下了车。 我自己也经历过。6月底在57,735挂了多单，差一千块钱没成交，然后看着行情一路反弹上去。踏空的感觉比亏钱还难受——亏钱的时候你至少知道自己错在哪，踏空的时候你连错在哪都说不清楚。 现在市场处于什么阶段？Glassnode的判断是“初步上行阶段”，但量能不足。8.5万到8.55万美元有卖压墙，7.72万美元是关键支撑位。简单说：方向大概率向上，但过程会很磨人。 这种行情下，最容易犯的错Btc bull flag structure shows a false breakout upward, breakout failed, daily chart has a top divergence, price still remains within a large range consolidation, no clear direction yet.
Avoid frequent trading in the middle of a volatile market, strictly no chasing the rally.
Rebound to the upper resistance zone 8.65-8.7 is a priority shorting area, stop loss set at 8.75.
Watershed: 83000-82500, a valid break below signals further decline; holding above means continued range-bound oscillation, watch out for false short traps.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $BTC $ETH [Old Chive Observation] #MichaelSaylor hints at increasing BTC holdings
Michael Saylor just sent another signal.
He shared Strategy's BTC Tracker with only one sentence:
"More orange than ever."
Currently, Strategy holds 847,666 BTC, with an average cost of about $75,437/BTC.
More importantly, the last time Strategy disclosed an increase was right after Saylor released a similar Tracker:
On September 28, they bought 1,665 BTC, spending about $143 million. So what the market is waiting for now is not just a "bullish on BTC" statement, but whether we will see another new BTC purchase tomorrow. There is no confirmation yet that Strategy has bought in. But if this signal is realized, the next day will see another purchase worth over $100 million. $BTC $BTC Long and Short Crowding List｜Last 15 Minutes
$SAND short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0392%, price -0.83%, open interest +0.82%. Decline and increased positions are synchronized; holding short positions past settlement at the current rate, the funding fee will lower the breakeven price.
$AXS short side unit time holding cost is relatively high: current 4-hour rate -0.0391%, price -0.58%, open interest +0.43%. Decline and increased positions are synchronized; holding short positions past settlement at the current rate, the funding fee will lower the breakeven price.
$STRK negative rate is at a near seven-day same-period low: current 4-hour rate -0.0077%, price -0.24%, open interest +1.93%. Decline and increased positions are synchronized; holding short positions past settlement at the current rate, the funding fee will lower the breakeven price.Let's analyze the big brother's slick moves.
Big bro Maji was decisive this round, PUMP was completely cleared out, keeping the total position steady at $146 million. Marginal positions were cut, scattered funds gathered back, clearly holding back for a new move.
$BTC: 378 coins, average price 84,700, floating profit of 152,900. Liquidation price dropped to 65,200, defense line much steadier. Recently repeatedly selling high and buying low, timing is spot on.
$ETH: 36,000 coins, average price 2,688, floating profit back to 610,000. But burning 1.23 million daily in sky-high funding fees, liquidation price pressed down to 2,495. Profits remain, defensive pressure still high, all relying on a strong foundation.
$HYPE: Position reduced to 174,000 coins, average price 89.72, slight profit of 65,200. Liquidation price dropped to 45, risk fully released.
After clearing PUMP, the $146 million portfolio now only holds the three core assets: BTC, ETH, and HYPE. Cutting marginal positions and concentrating defense on the mainstream shows he doesn't want to spread funds thin now. With the market fluctuating back and forth, better to keep bullets ready and wait for a clear direction before making a move.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 #贝森特：The rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with global trends
🔥 Brothers, with this statement, Bassent has fully revealed the bottom cards of the U.S. Treasury market.
In plain terms: the surge in U.S. Treasury yields follows the global trend. Translated into everyday language — don’t expect the Treasury or the Fed to forcibly suppress interest rates anymore; we all have to gradually get used to a high interest rate environment.
This is definitely a long-term constraint for the crypto world. Think about it, the 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields stuck at a high level of 5.6% means the world’s safest asset can earn big returns just by holding it. Capital chases profits; with such high risk-free returns, who still has the leisure to take risks in crypto? Bitcoin hovering around 85,000 and unable to break higher ultimately means there’s no fresh liquidity outside the market, and inside the market it’s all leverage cutting each other.
But let’s not be overly pessimistic.
Bassent’s statement is actually about managing expectations. He’s telling the market: stop fixating on rate cuts, the U.S. economy is aiming for a "soft landing," and high interest rates are the new normal. This shows the U.S. Treasury is choosing to tough it out under debt pressure.
The current strategy is simple, don’t get caught up in grand macro narratives:
Hold your spot positions firmly; as long as institutional ETFs keep buying slowly, the bottom support remains, don’t easily give up your chips.
Contract traders must control their hands; during this high interest rate standoff, macro news causes extremely fierce spikes up and down, and both longs and shorts are prone to repeated liquidations.
Hold your USDT tightly, be patient, wait until the market truly adapts to the high interest rate norm, or until long-term bond yields finally peak and fall back — that will be the signal for a major rebound in risk assets.$ETH Recently, what is worth paying attention to is not the single-day increase, but whether there is a sustained capital inflow. If $BTC remains stable at a high level, and ETH starts to consistently outperform BTC, this kind of capital rotation is often more noteworthy than a single large bullish candle.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
#VanEck：比特币或继续扩大市场份额 $FLOCK I was just complaining to a friend about this week's market, but now I have to take back my words, it's a bit awkward.
Last night before bed, FLOCK rebounded but no one took over, the support was insufficient, and the resistance above was obvious. I suggested trying a short position. Entry price 0.07391.
Woke up to see the current price at 0.06463, a return of +251.38%. This profit feels good; the earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly satisfying.
Take profits on 80%, move the stop loss on the remaining 20% to the cost price for protection, let the profit run if it continues to drop, don't be greedy for the last bit.
Don't lose patience in the consolidation and then try to regain dignity in a trending move. Risk control done upfront is called being rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive action. Now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, there will be more opportunities ahead.
$ADA $ZEC $ZEC
✅ Scenario A: Bulls charge again
Holding above 1337.83, bulls make another push to challenge the high at 1346. Once broken, the upside space opens up.
❌ Scenario B: Rally followed by pullback and correction
Support at 1330.33 fails, price pulls back to 1323 (SAR), further looking toward SuperTrend support at 1313.
👉 Let's discuss your views:
1. Do you think 1346 is the phase top for this wave?
2. With ZEC consolidating at a high level, do you lean more toward an upward breakout or a pullback for accumulation first?
3. After this rally with a long upper shadow and choppy price action, could this be another two-way stop-loss sweep? #ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 #OKXNOW：未来已至，重磅内容正在揭晓 $BTC is stagnant near 85,000 USD, but the activity of large on-chain addresses is anything but calm.
In the past 10 days, whale and shark addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have quietly accumulated 41,025 BTC, pushing total holdings to 13.64 million BTC, accounting for 67.93% of the circulating supply, directly reclaiming the highest level since the mid-August rally. During the same period, retail addresses holding less than 0.01 BTC barely moved, remaining flat.
More subtle is the situation on the exchange side.
The total BTC balance on exchanges has dropped to about 2.68 million BTC, the lowest since 2023. The inflow-to-outflow ratio has continuously declined to 0.97, indicating a net outflow of funds from exchanges, with a net outflow of 6,762 BTC in the first week of October alone. Coins are leaving trading platforms, but the price remains sideways; this structural migration of supply is more worth watching than any bullish candle on the chart.
There is another signal not to be ignored — the concentrated awakening of dormant addresses. On October 4, an address that had been dormant for 13.1 years holding 801 BTC suddenly activated, worth 68.29 million USD. On the same day, another ancient whale from 13 years ago moved 1,346 BTC, with a cost basis of only 240,000 USD, realizing a floating profit of over 100 million USD. Old money is testing, new money is accumulating; the directions may not be the same, but both are active.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 Stop oscillating, ETH: A monologue about cleansing and struggle
Can you stop oscillating? ETH.
Watching the candlestick break through from 2530 to 2700, this smoothness is rare. The 2700 to 2800 range is basically a battleground for bears, with liquidations, stop losses, and short covering triggering a domino effect that further pushed the price up. Honestly, this rally didn’t require much effort; the market sentiment was just ignited like that.
But as someone who’s been through the market grind, I know very well: if this bull market wants to truly take off, the trend won’t be so smooth. To go far, the main players have to be a bit "mean." They need to push down to the 2450 or even 2300 range to completely clear out those high-leverage bulls shouting "bull market is back." After all, where would you latecomer "retail traders" comfortably make money so easily?
Right now, my average holding price is 2685.11. Looking at the red and green on the chart, I feel mixed emotions. The day before yesterday’s non-farm payroll data was released, and the market expected earth-shattering volatility, but what happened? Only a 1.11 amplitude. Although the low once dipped to 2648, I didn’t profit from it. For risk control, I even closed my BTC profit position a few days ago.
Trading is like this, full of regrets and struggles. While we look forward to trends, we also fear their reversals. #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要