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2009年10月5日，New Liberty Standard 发布了已知最早的 BTC/USD 汇率： 💰 1 BTC ≈ $0.00076 也就是 $1 ≈ 1,309.03 BTC 有趣的是，当时这并不是市场交易价格，而是根据挖矿成本计算出来的。其核心逻辑是：估算高性能 CPU 一年的耗电量、电价以及当月的比特币产出，从而得到一个理论价值。 ⚡ 一周后，2009年10月12日，这个价格迎来了第一次真实的法币交易验证： Martti Malmi 通过 New Liberty Standard 出售 5,050 BTC，获得 $5.02。 换句话说，当时几美元就可以买到数千枚 BTC。 🍕 而更传奇的是——距离后来著名的 Bitcoin Pizza Day，还有整整229天。 从 $0.00076 到今天的数万美元，比特币走过的并不只是价格上涨，更是一段从实验性数字货币走向全球金融资产的历史。 如果当年你用 $1 买下 1,309 BTC，现在会是什么概念？👀 #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #BitcoinHistory #Satoshi #BTCUSD #Cry$ZAMA perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.08816, currently at 0.08363, floating profit +102.76%.
The logic is simple: repeated failed attempts to rally near 0.088, every rebound was quickly crushed, the upper shadows grew longer, and buying pressure clearly exhausted. Once volume broke below 0.086, confirmed on the right side, entered short. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.09. The decline was very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Now moving the stop loss to 0.085 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 0.08, can hold a bit longer. $ZEC $SOL #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 【On-Chain Trading Update｜xyz:XYZ100】
Monitored address 0x0742 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: 30,964.98 USD
▪ Transaction amount this time: 247,719.85 USD
▪ Leverage: 30x$ZEC perpetual 50x short position, opened at 1312.95, now at 1285.55, floating profit +104.34%.
Didn't overthink it: the previous consolidation lasted long enough, the 1310 level was repeatedly confirmed as valid, the top pattern is very clear. Entered as soon as a high-volume bearish candle appeared, following the trend, not emotions. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1340. The drop was fast and steady, giving no chance for a second entry.
Locked in a safety cushion at 1295 first. My personal judgment is that there will be buying support around 1250; then I'll watch the volume to decide whether to exit or hold, without guessing the bottom in advance. $BTC $ETH #ZEC现货ETF连续3日流出，NU7升级临近 Daily transfer volume on x402 a payment standard built for AI agents jumped to $223,180 on October 2, the highest since April. Algorand accounted for roughly 72% of that activity. This landed just three days after the White House proclaimed the "era of Super Intelligence."
The angle: AI agents paying each other onchain isn't a narrative anymore. It's producing measurable volume. Worth watching if you want to cover the AI + payments intersection before it gets crowded.
#OKXNOW:LiveStartingSoon $OPN Just switched the software to the background, and it suddenly dropped sharply. Is it playing hide and seek with me? Before I could react, the profit had already come out on its own.
When the screen was full of green, no one was buying OPN or OPN going up at all; the sell pressure was tight and heavy. Entered short at 0.05820, held all the way to 0.05719, +34.36% gave the answer directly. The earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is truly satisfying.
Put the big chunk into the pocket first, close 80% of the position. Protect the remaining 20% at cost price; if it continues to drop, let the profit run. Take profits when it's time.
Hold as long as the trend is intact, exit once it breaks the level, don’t get emotionally attached.
Being out of position is not a sin; opening random positions is the mistake.
Waiting for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify immediately. Chasing highs easily leaves you stuck at the peak.
$SOL $BNB 别急着看谁涨得最猛，那通常是行情后段才有的错觉。 真正该问的是：现在这段，是启动、延续，还是已经悄悄走到分歧了？ 我盯盘时有个习惯，先不看涨幅榜，而是看钱经过谁。BTC 在 84K 附近晃，它依然是全场的中枢，这点没变。ETH 摸到 2.7K 附近，说明风险偏好确实有往外扩的苗头，但还没到全面开花的程度。SOL 靠生态和升级撑着动能，XRP 吃的是 ETF 叙事，而 TRUMP 完全是另一类物种，它对消息极度敏感，波动经常脱离常规节奏。 如果把这段行情当成一个阶段来判断，我更倾向它处在延续和分歧之间。启动期的特征是 BTC 先稳住、ETH 跟涨、山寨随后补，现在 BTC 的中枢地位还在，ETH 在试探上方，SOL 和 XRP 各有各的故事，这像是延续。但分歧的信号也藏在这里：每个标的的上涨理由都不一样，说明资金还没形成统一的风险偏好，更像各买各的。 偏多的路径很清楚。只要 BTC 守住这个区间，ETH 带量突破阻力，SOL 和 XRP 跟上形成共振，那行情就有机会从少数标的扩散到更大范围，山寨的补涨窗口也会打开。这种时候，早期布局的人吃的是扩散红利。 但风险恰恰在于，很多人会把这种结构The city night deepens, and many short-term opportunities are hidden in the nighttime market fluctuations.
After $AT surged, the upward momentum weakened, repeatedly testing the upper resistance without breakthrough. I placed a short order at 0.1402 to play the pullback.
The market's bullish intent faded, profit-taking intensified, and the price retraced, confirming the previous judgment.
Currently, bears dominate, but a retaliatory rebound could occur at any time. Leveraged trading carries high risk, so position management must never be relaxed. $SNDK $SOL #OKXNOW直播：即将开启！ 🔥OKX partners with the parent company of the NYSE to pave the way for securities on the Blockchain
According to Bloomberg, OKX has allied with ICE (Intercontinental Exchange - the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange NYSE) to establish a joint venture named OKXICE
This joint venture has officially filed with the SEC to obtain a license to launch a US Stock trading platform in the form of Tokenized Stocks directly in the US market.
The initial plan is to launch tokenization for shares of 63 companies listed on the NYSE 📍 My current favorite trading strategies
Plan A: Breakout Long
BTC effectively breaks above $87K → Do not chase on the first candlestick, wait for a pullback to $87K to hold, then consider going long.
· Stop loss: placed below the breakout structure
· First target: $89K
· Second target: around $90K
· Position size: start light, add after confirmation
Plan B: Breakdown Short
If $84K is clearly broken down and the rebound cannot retake $84K, consider shorting.
· First target: $82K
· Second target: around $80K
· If price quickly recovers above $84K, exit short positions promptly.
🔵 ETH Contracts
Do not rush ETH ahead of BTC now.
Break and hold above $2,800 → bullish signal strengthens.
If BTC has already broken $87K but ETH still cannot hold above $2,800, do not go heavy long just because "ETH is cheap."
⚠️ The most important rule for contracts
Currently in a breakout critical zone, the most likely scenario is:
$87K false breakout → bulls chase in → quickly slammed back to $85K. $FIL perpetual 50x long position, opened at 1.0623, currently at 1.0885, floating profit +123.42%.
Just betting on a bottom reversal: 1.06 tested three times without breaking, volume increasing stepwise, very standard bottom characteristics. Enter at the moment the bullish candle pulls up, never guessing the bottom prematurely. 50x leverage, stop loss at 1.05. This wave moved very cleanly, almost no pullback.
For now, hold steady and let the bullets fly a bit. Keep 1.08 as the defense line to protect the principal, wait for a clear signal around 1.12 before deciding to add or reduce, no rush. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 🚨 A $212M whale account is carrying serious risk, with 18.4x overall leverage and just 0.6% available margin. $SOL is the biggest position: a $149M short currently down around $2.66M, while funding gains of $405K offer limited relief. $XRP holds a $754K unrealized profit, $DOGE and $WIF are slightly down, while $TON leads with a $342K profit. The main risk remains the massive $SOL short. With such high leverage and a thin margin buffer, even a small adverse move could create major pressure.$PONS Did nothing, just went to the restroom, and when I came back, the K-line had already done the work for me😅
During the intraday plunge, everyone was looking for reasons to rebound, but PONS clearly lacked support, the bull trap was too obvious, and the volume was fake. Before the market fully started, I had already set the direction: bearish, around 0.4252 is the entry point, don’t be fooled by that red K-line.
Got it.
From 0.4252 to 0.3737, the account gained +242.7%, this wave was worth the wait, the earlier hesitation was real, but the outcome is really sweet.
Panic comes from lack of plan, losses come from overthinking.
First close 80%, move the stop loss of the remaining 20% closer to the cost price, if it continues to drop let the profits run, if it rebounds don’t give back the profits. Take profits when you should, brother, watch your gains.
Now is not the time to rush, wait for the next shot, the market is not short of opportunities, it lacks patience, I’ll call out when the signal appears.
$DOGE $BTC The July financial report still showed a loss of $8.22 billion, but this quarter Strategy turned around and earned back $21 billion.
Saylor just disclosed: Driven by Bitcoin's over 40% rise in Q3, Strategy's digital asset book gains for the third quarter were about $21 billion, returning to profitability. As of October 4, it held approximately 848,000 BTC, valued at about $72.6 billion at that time, along with about $5.7 billion in USD assets. (Reported by ChainCatcher)
Note that it previously announced it might opportunistically sell Bitcoin, raising up to $1.25 billion to replenish USD reserves, pay preferred stock dividends and interest, or repurchase shares. After that, the pace of buying coins clearly slowed, with only 334 purchased last week.
My view: The $21 billion is unrealized book profit, not realized gains. At the time of writing, OKX BTC was about 85,140, just dropped back near 85,000; for every $10,000 price fluctuation, its book value swings about $8.5 billion.
Not investment advice.
848,000 BTC, $21 billion unrealized profit in Q3, for Q4 do you bet on continued gains or a turnaround to losses?
$BTC $AKE Perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.03418, currently at 0.03145, floating profit +159.74%.
The logic is simple: repeated failed attempts to rally near 0.034, each rebound quickly crushed, with increasingly long upper shadows, clearly showing buying exhaustion. Once volume broke below 0.0325, confirmed on the right side, entered short. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.035. The decline was very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Now moving the stop loss to 0.032 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 0.029, can hold a bit longer. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC 100x short, floating profit 140.04%, although the rocket in the chart is blasting off happily. I suggest not changing your avatar to a success coach just yet, because BTC hasn't closed and the sentiment isn't off work.
This wave is a rally followed by insufficient buying, obvious pressure, and short-term weakness. I shorted near 86280, profiting from the retracement after the chasing funds let go, not because of any grudge against BTC.
Handling is simple: protect cost, move stop loss, take profits in batches, and let the remaining position be. Don't get emotional with 100x leverage; a single opposite move can turn "teacher is bullish" into "teacher, don't go." Only those who know how to close positions deserve to show charts; those who don't, the charts are just evidence. $BTC $ETH This time ZEC finally softened!
$ZEC
Babala opened a short at 1340, and now the price has dropped to around 1286, temporarily securing a floating profit of 54 points.
Previously, ZEC always moved against the overall market, unable to fall, rising quickly, giving the shorts a hard time. But after this drop below 1300, the short-term structure has indeed started to change.
1300 was originally an important support level; now that it’s broken, it will turn into the first resistance. If the rebound can’t close back above 1300, it means selling pressure isn’t over yet. Next, watch if 1280 can hold.
If 1280 continues to fail, the next key level is around 1250; but if it quickly pulls back to 1300 and reclaims 1320, then beware that this might just be a stop-loss sweep downward, not a true trend reversal to bearish.
Babala’s short at 1340 is currently in a comfortable position, but everyone has seen ZEC’s volatility—dozens of points can be pulled back at any time.
This time, no rush to call victory; first watch 1280, if it breaks then look at 1250.
After being tormented for so long, finally the shorts get a breather.$HYPE perpetual 50x long position, opened at 89.463, now at 92.559, floating profit +173.03%.
The idea is very simple: the bottom consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that the chips have settled. A single high-volume bullish candle directly pulls the price up from 89.5, a typical start signal, go long, not short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 88. The trend goes straight up, giving no comfortable entry points.
At this position, I plan to take half the position off the table first, move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 91.5 to let profits run. If 95 can break through with volume, continue holding; if it can't break through, close all positions. $SNDK $XRP #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
➤Today's follow-up question: When faced with a sudden surge in an asset, can you hold off placing orders for 24 hours?
Who can resist the temptation when the market suddenly spikes? Control yourself and don't rush in to grab a piece of the pie.
I used to rush in and get hit repeatedly, which caused my mindset to collapse and my funds to dwindle. Usually, a sudden surge hides huge traps waiting for you to fall into.
The main reasons for getting mentally worn out from chasing the market up and down are:
1. The market is very volatile; if you enter at the wrong time, you might get liquidated immediately, or get stuck if you enter in the opposite direction.
2. Not timing the entry correctly during the rise; rushing in without knowing whether to go long or short at the peak.
3. Poor control of position size and leverage; even if the direction is right, large positions and leverage can lead to liquidation.
After trading for so long and taking so many hits, I learned from these lessons and summarized two key points to reduce such situations:
1. Don’t rush into the market; patiently wait for support and resistance levels to appear. Enter only when the market stabilizes. There’s no need to enter quickly. Make good use of limit orders and take-profit/stop-loss functions, and use pending orders to enter. If you’re wrong, accept the loss.
2. Control your mindset; this is very important. Stop trading after two consecutive mistakes. Refuse to place emotional trades. If you can’t control yourself, open a contract cooldown period to calm down and adjust your mindset. $BTC $ETH $ZEC The night is deep, the city falls silent, and the night session often releases accumulated adjustment forces.
$SENT has seen continuous rallies in the past few days, with prices moving out of reasonable ranges and volume starting to lag behind the gains, choosing to establish a short position at 12.868.
Sell orders keep pouring in above the market, high-position chasing funds are trapped, and prices gradually decline to realize the expected correction.
Currently, bears hold the upper hand, but this type of asset has strong rebound momentum, so do not be careless and strictly adhere to your exit plan. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 $BTC took a look around the live rooms, over seventy percent are bullish, and another twenty percent expect consolidation, very few are bearish. I mentioned in a previous post that when at the top, don't be fooled by big bullish candles; the structure is deceptive. This is why, even though it's clearly an ascending triangle, I still lean bearish. The market makers basically fooled two groups: those who don't understand technicals see the big bullish candle from yesterday and think it will keep rising; those who understand technicals know this is clearly an ascending triangle breakout structure. So it's clever; the market is like this—it won't let the majority make money. Also, that big bullish candle was probably deliberately pushed by the market makers just before the 8 o'clock close. Why didn't it drop before 8 but started to fall sharply at noon? Think about it carefully!!!Looking back at this passage from Teacher Long:
When the original intention of trading changes from making money to learning as an expense, you can then determine your maximum loss range (tuition fee), and within this limited loss budget, find ways to trade without losing money to plan your strategy. Very likely, as you play, you will end up earning the money back.
To make money, you first need to find the fun in the game, but this fun must not be too closely tied to your wins or losses. It's like interacting with a girl—if she smiles at you, you're happy; if she's indifferent, you're sad. You'd better rethink: is there anyone in this world who will always smile at you?
The market is the same; it prefers to make your account bleed every day with crying and tantrums...
At the beginning of the year, I rushed in recklessly based on feelings and superficial knowledge. As a buyer, I lost over fifty thousand; as a seller, not understanding the rules, I was liquidated for over twenty thousand, stepping into every pitfall. Later, I calmed down to deeply study the mechanisms, ignoring profits and losses, only calculating Greek letters and trading logic. When my mind was no longer led by volatility, my account quietly recovered within a month or two.
Previously, focusing on wins and losses caused my account to bleed daily; later, focusing on logic, only questioning the correctness of Greek letters and risk control. When the joy of trading changed from "betting on ups and downs" to "solving puzzles," my account unconsciously leveled up.
Trading has never been simply about going long or short. Focusing on doing the right thing, account growth is merely a byproduct of cognitive improvement.$PONS perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.4094, now at 0.3726, floating profit +179.77%.
The logic is simple: repeated failed attempts to rally near 0.41, every rebound is quickly crushed, upper shadows getting longer, clearly showing buying exhaustion. Once volume breaks below 0.39, confirm on the right side, enter short. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.42. The decline is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Now moving the stop loss to 0.385 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 0.35, can hold a bit longer. $DOGE $SNDK #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 The second culprit: North Korean hackers' $3.9 million "blood-stained ZEC" pins the privacy narrative to the pillory
This is the most underestimated and also the most fatal piece of news in this ZEC plunge.
On September 24, Bitget exchange was hacked, with stolen assets reaching $387 million, marking the largest exchange security incident in 2026. Bitget's CEO publicly stated that the IP addresses and attack patterns highly matched those of North Korean hacker groups.
Then, on September 30, on-chain investigator ZachXBT discovered that addresses related to the Bitget hack transferred about 2,746 ZEC (worth approximately $3.9 million) into Zcash's Ironwood privacy pool—where sender, receiver, and amount are all hidden.
Do you understand the weight of this signal?
For a crypto asset just included by Grayscale into an ETF and eager to establish a good reputation on Wall Street, this is the most fatal PR disaster. ChainCatcher's analysis is extremely restrained but precise: "This hack incident is very likely not the trigger for today's drop, and the $3.9 million scale is relatively limited, but it certainly didn't help. $ZEC $BTC $ZEC #OKXNOW直播：即将开启！ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 " "ETH: 2574—2815, Leverage Minefield"
Ethereum contract positions are being squeezed by two forces: near 2815 above, there is a dense cluster of short liquidations, with about $497 million in short positions waiting to be cleared; near 2574 below, the long defense line is equally fragile, with nearly $497 million in long positions possibly being swept. This range acts like a fuse; once the price breaks out, chained liquidations will amplify volatility, causing a sharp surge or plunge.
What’s more troublesome is the concentration of external variables. The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meeting minutes, as well as U.S. Treasury yield data, could suddenly disrupt risk appetite, causing spikes that directly pierce the upper or lower boundaries. At such times, directional judgment has a low success rate because both longs and shorts can become liquidity targets.
Spot holders are relatively calm, but contract traders face the risk of leverage being repeatedly liquidated. Rather than betting on a breakout, it’s better to control position size and leverage first; in this minefield, surviving is more important than guessing the right direction. $ETH $BTC $SOL
#本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 $HYPE looks stable at 90 today, but on October 7 there is a $320 million team unlock hanging overhead, and such a drop never gives a warning.
HYPE is currently priced at $90.4, up about 1.3% in 24h, with a market cap of around 20 billion and a circulating supply of about 2.2 billion tokens; on-chain perpetuals across 40 currencies have an open interest of $12.55 billion, with HYPE's own open interest at $1.84 billion.
Hyperliquid Labs will unlock and allocate about $320 million worth of HYPE to the team on October 7, which is a looming selling pressure rather than just a paper risk; on-chain perpetual trading volume in October breaking one trillion is real infrastructure.
Burning remains real money, but the $320 million unlock combined with high open interest means a pullback to 85 is normal; 92-95 is the psychological top, and failing to hold it means another wave of supply release.
Overbought conditions are not over yet, with a position cap at 30%. Hold 85 to push to 92, reduce positions if it breaks 81. HYPE is close to its historical high, with the $320 million Damocles sword hanging underneath on October 7.$ZEC has fully opened short positions, the ETF is now in a vicious cycle with unlimited outflows, completely lacking the momentum to support a rise, repeatedly crashing directly from 1360, this wave is targeting 1150.$CT perpetual 20x short position, opened at 0.4828, currently 0.4098, floating profit +302.40%.
Didn't overthink it: the previous consolidation lasted long enough, the 0.48 level was repeatedly confirmed as valid, the top pattern is very clear. Entered as soon as a high-volume bearish candle appeared, following the trend not the sentiment. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.495. The drop was fast and steady, giving no chance for a second entry.
Locked in a safety cushion at 0.43 first. My personal judgment is that there will be buying support around 0.38; then I'll watch the volume to decide whether to exit or hold, without guessing the bottom in advance. $SOL $DOGE #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 My 10x long is underwater again after BTC failed to hold the $87,000 level. Entry remains $86,460, with $BTC around $86,130 after rejecting $86,994. The 1H EMA20 is near $85,892 with RSI around 57. BTC remains above the EMA, but selling pressure is building. Key levels: • Reclaim $86,480 → $86,800–$87,000 • Hold $85,900 → recovery remains possible • Lose $85,700 → $85,300 next Open interest is up ~2.5% while funding continues rising, so chasing the upside could become risky if price stays weak. 接下来一两天，我更倾向$PEPE继续震荡。周末的反弹还没完全跌回去，但10月5日冲高后又回落，连周日高点都没守住，再往上走恐怕没那么顺。 截至北京时间10月6日00:05，OKX的PEPE/USDT现货约0.000004391，比10月5日盘中的0.000004573高点低了约4%。前面涨到了周日高点0.000004445上方，现在又跌了回来。突破后没站稳，这是我觉得它还要整理的主要原因。 不过，周末以来低点抬高的走势还没被破坏。如果这次回落跌破0.00000435附近，反弹就更容易继续回吐；要是重新站上0.000004573并守住，继续上涨的可能性就会增加。这两个位置对应这段UTC日线的盘中低点和高点，日线还没收盘。 ETF申请确实有新进展。Canary在10月2日提交了PEPE ETF的S-1/A修订稿，截至这次查阅，SEC该基金的最新披露仍是这份文件。但招股书明确写着注册生效前不能出售份额，种子买币的数量和金额也还空着。只凭这份修订稿，没法确认基金已经买了多少PEPE。 市场可以提前炒ETF预期，但我们也不知道这波上涨里有多少人是冲着ETF来的。眼下能确认的是申请有了更新、价格冲$AMD Many people ask why AMD keeps rising and when it will fall. Here's my take.
The fundamentals show profits, AI computing power expectations remain, and the long-term monthly and weekly charts are all in bullish alignment. Trend funds are clustered together. Even if indicators remain overbought, the price can continue to rise sluggishly; overbought does not mean an immediate top.
Key signals: I won't blindly guess the top.
Resistance is at the previous high of 645, the short-term watershed is 620, and the most important bullish lifeline is 594, which is the weekly 5-day moving average.
My judgment: Currently in the late stage of the rise, most likely oscillating repeatedly between 620–645, with back-and-forth bull traps.
To confirm a major downtrend, two core conditions must be met simultaneously: a weekly KDJ death cross and a valid break below 594.
Before breaking below, any short positions are counter-trend bets and can easily be stopped out by rallies.
Without signals, be patient and wait. Only when the trend truly breaks is there a high risk-reward opportunity.
Do you think AMD can still reach new highs?
#AMD财报超预期，增长已被透支？ BTC and ETH surged then pulled back; next, watch if the support can hold
#BTC
In the short term, BTC should first observe support around 85,000–85,200. If it holds and recovers above 86,000, there is still a chance to test 86,800–87,000 again; if it breaks down and the rebound fails to recover, then attention should turn to around 84,700.
#ETH
ETH has returned to the 2680 level. Whether it can stabilize here is more valuable than a single spike: if it holds and recovers above 2,720, there is a chance to challenge 2,740–2,750 again; if it continues to lose 2,700, next watch 2,680–2,690, and below that is 2,650.
My judgment is that the short term is still viewed as a downward consolidation with fluctuations; the direction needs to wait for a breakout confirmation. Whether the rebound can continue depends on the pullback after breaking resistance; whether the correction deepens depends on the rebound after losing support. The above price levels are observation zones and do not necessarily represent definite bottoms or resistance points. The issue with TLT is hard to explain in just a sentence or two. If you must buy, I personally think buying a small amount in batches might be okay, but don't rush to go heavy. The 30-year yield is currently around 5.6%, and TLT is near its one-year low. The coupon itself has a buffer of over 5%, so from a long-term perspective, this yield level is attractive. However, the main reason for the long-end rise is the term premium (fiscal deficit, Federal Reserve policy uncertainty), which is hard to predict when it will peak. Technically, it still shows a continuing downtrend pattern. So if you buy, it's better to keep the initial position small, add more as the yield steps up, and plan in advance how long you can hold and how much drawdown you can tolerate. TLT's current volatility is almost close to stocks, so it can't be used as a hedge against stocks. These are just some personal thoughts and views, not investment advice.【On-Chain Trading Activity｜SUI】
Monitored address 0xf374 opened a long position:
▪ Execution price: $1.19
▪ Transaction amount this time: $150,484.23
▪ Leverage: 5x
Note: This address has earned over $21,000 in profit in the past 30 days, with a return rate of +21.04% The ETF capital flow is the core "buyer list expansion" for ZEC rising from 480 to 1698. When the ETF changed from "daily net buying" to "daily net selling," the path for ZEC to fall from 1698 to 1316 was already laid out.
The first culprit: the ETF changed from "buying 100 million daily" to "selling 30 million daily."
Look at a set of data, and you will instantly understand why ZEC couldn't hold on.
Grayscale's Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) had a weekly net outflow of $93.56 million, setting the worst record since its launch. Assets under management fell from a peak of $979 million to $751 million.
Daily data is even more alarming: on September 30, a single-day net outflow of $30.25 million. On October 2, another $26.93 million left. From late September to early October, multiple trading days saw redemption volumes steady between $26 million and $30 million.
Do you understand this rhythm?
It's not a "slow cooldown," it's a "redemption queue." In mid-September, ZCSH was still the crypto ETF with the strongest net inflow, grabbing $98.2 million in a single week, once accounting for 32.5% of all spot crypto ETF trading volume. And now? The same fund has become the leader of the redemption queue. $ZEC $BTC $ETH #OKXNOW直播：即将开启！ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #霍尔木兹仍未开放，OPEC+维持11月产量不变 How do you view this drop?
Today's market was indeed unfriendly, with $BTC, $ETH, and $ZEC all showing significant pullbacks. The core reason is not a single negative factor, but a combination of macro interest rate pressure + deleveraging + ZEC's own excessive prior gains.
BTC and ETH are more driven by macro factors and leverage; the key is whether US Treasury yields can fall back and whether BTC can reclaim the $86,000–$87,000 range.
ZEC looks more like deleveraging after a prior surge; it should not be simply understood as a complete trend reversal, but short-term volatility and liquidity risks are clearly higher.$MUBARAK perpetual 20x long position, opened at 0.063765, currently at 0.075781, floating profit +376.88%.
The idea is very simple: the bottom consolidates with extremely low volume, volatility is crushed to the floor, indicating that the chips have settled. A single volume-increasing bullish candle directly pulls the price up from 0.064, a typical start signal, go long, not short. 20x leverage, stop loss at 0.062. The trend goes straight up, giving no comfortable entry point.
At this position, I plan to take profit on half of the position first, and move the stop loss of the remaining half up to 0.072 to let the profit run. If 0.08 can be broken with volume, continue holding; if it can't hold above, exit completely. $BTC $ETH #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 ETH's quiet period: 2727 is not dull, it's a compressed spring
ETH is stuck at 2727, appearing sluggish on the surface, but the market is far from calm. 24-hour trading volume is 3.148 billion U, with little price movement; this doesn't mean no one is trading, but that someone is absorbing. Volume exists, price is stable, which often means chips are changing hands.
More importantly, the moving averages: EMA5, 10, and 20 are squeezed between 2710–2720, like three ropes twisted together. The longer they stick, the closer the breakout. Below, 2680 is EMA20 and also a short-term psychological line; if it doesn't break, the structure remains intact. On the upside, first watch 3000, with Citibank's 3028 as a landmark, not a final destination.
So the current “slowness” feels more like energy buildup. Institutions are quietly accumulating near 2720, while retail investors are still guessing tops and bottoms. The strategy is simple: above 2680, look for opportunities on pullbacks; if it breaks down, reassess. $SAND perpetual 50x short position, opened at 0.07388, currently 0.06752, floating profit +430.42%.
The logic is simple: repeated failed attempts to rally near 0.074, every rebound is quickly crushed, upper shadows getting longer, clearly weakening buying pressure. Once volume breaks below 0.072, confirm on the right side and enter short. 50x leverage, stop loss at 0.076. The decline is very smooth, no chance for a rebound.
Now moving the stop loss to 0.070 to lock in profits. If volume breaks below 0.065, can hold a bit longer. $BTC $ETH #OKXNOW直播：即将开启！ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 🚨 9 DAYS OF SIDEWAYS ACTION — AND BTC STILL CAN’T BREAK $87K. THAT’S NOT A GOOD SIGN.
BTC has been hovering around $85K–$86K for nine straight days. Every time it tries to push higher, sellers step in and knock it back down. Meanwhile, volume keeps drying up.
Look at the bigger picture: BTC rallied from $62,368 to $87,399, but now it’s struggling to make the next move.
Personally, I’m not convinced this is healthy accumulation.
#DailyOrbit BTC Technical Analysis: 85000-87000 is the current main battleground between bulls and bears
Upper resistance:
87000 (8-month high, core resistance after failed breakout) → 89205 Bollinger Band upper band → 90000 psychological level → 92000 strong resistance
Lower support:
84887 immediate pivot support → 84701 secondary defense → 84372 strong daily support
If the daily closes below 84372, it will test SMA20 (82809)
82500 has a $13.25 million buy wall as a bottom support.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #Solana tokenized stocks September trading volume exceeded $4.4 billion🔥 BTC and ETH look similar, but derivatives reveal different signals!
🟠 $BTC is currently fluctuating around 85000, with relatively stable prices and no obvious market panic. In contrast, $ETH is still hovering near 2700, with spot performance clearly weaker than BTC.
🔵 But what really deserves attention is the derivatives data: ETH funding rates are nearly twice that of BTC, and open interest continues to increase. Simply put, ETH traders are using more leverage; although the price hasn't moved much on the surface, positions underneath are getting increasingly crowded.
🟣 This is actually a contrast that requires caution. Weak price doesn't mean low risk; when leverage keeps piling up, if the market suddenly reverses, ETH could experience a more severe long-short squeeze. Especially in a high funding rate environment, the cost of chasing gains will also rise.
🟢 So now, for BTC, the focus is on whether the trend can continue; for ETH, besides watching the price around 2700, more attention should be paid to funding rates and open interest changes. If the price doesn't rise but leverage keeps increasing, beware of "looking stable but actually fragile."
🟡 In short: prices show the surface, derivatives reveal the fundamentals. ETH isn't weak enough to ignore for now, but the higher the leverage, the less you can take it lightly.
#OKXNOW直播：即将开启！ #本周美联储将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 ENA is still up about 4%, but the 23:00 hour positions have increased by about 528% compared to 24 hours ago, while in the last hour they have actually dropped about 10.6%.
As of 23:43 Beijing time, OKX spot is around $0.2468, with a 24-hour high of $0.2627 and a low of $0.2344, a volatility of about 12.1%; spot trading volume is about $10.52 million, with the best bid-ask spread around 0.004%.
The current funding rate is 0.005%, with perpetual contracts trading at a discount of about 0.03% compared to spot. My judgment is that a large amount of leverage has indeed flowed in during the wide fluctuations, but the recent one-hour position decline indicates that high-level positions have begun to exit. It now looks more like intense turnover rather than a clear acceleration.
The easiest misjudgment is to directly interpret a large increase in positions as new longs; position volume only indicates an increase in open interest and cannot confirm direction. If prices continue to weaken and positions rise again, it could actually amplify the pullback.
Next, watch $0.2627 and the midpoint of the range at about $0.2486. If it retakes the midpoint and tests the previous high with a still moderate funding rate, the strong structure will be more complete; if it continues to stay below the midpoint, the recent deleveraging has not yet formed effective support.
$ENA $USELESS This is not a rebound; it's like CPR for my short account, right? When the screen was full of green, I almost closed the software, but it kept scrolling down on its own.
During the intraday plunge, every time USELESS surged, it was just short of breath; the rebound was really weak. I directly opened a short at 0.23169, judging it as a strong bull trap. Then it steadily dropped to 0.22301, netting +37.33%, feeling good.
Took profits on 80% first. Moved the stop loss to the cost price for the remaining 20%, so even if it rebounds, don’t give back the profits. This rhythm feels really comfortable.
Don’t lose patience in the consolidation and then try to regain dignity in a one-sided move.
Risk control done upfront is called rational; cutting losses after losing is called decisive.
Don’t rush to chase shorts now, wait for the next shot. The market isn’t short of opportunities, it’s short of patience.
$ADA $SNDK #ThisWeekTheFedWillReleaseSeptemberMeetingMinutes
Tonight the ISM Services PMI came out at 54.9, below the expected 55.7 and down 0.8 points from last month's 55.4. The data isn't bad, still in expansion territory, but the growth rate is slowing. Over the past four months, this index has been fluctuating between 54 and 55.4, showing no clear trend, just range-bound oscillation.
At 2 a.m. Friday, the Fed will release the September meeting minutes. The key in these minutes is not what was said at the time, but how it compares to current data. When the meeting happened in September, the nonfarm payrolls hadn't been released yet, and employment data wasn't as weak as it is now. So the officials' assessments of inflation and employment in the minutes may differ from current market expectations. This gap is the source of volatility.
For BTC, in the short term, it will follow the expectation gap. If the minutes are hawkish, emphasizing stubborn inflation and more hikes this year, BTC will face pressure around 85,000. If the minutes are dovish, starting to discuss employment downside risks, BTC could test 87,000.
But honestly, one set of minutes won't change the trend. Nonfarm payrolls have clearly cooled, and the probability of a rate hike in October has long dropped. The market is now more focused on upcoming inflation and employment data, not the usual lines in the minutes.
From a trading perspective, don't stay up late gambling on the minutes. They often cause spikes in the early morning, only for prices to revert by the time you wake up. Keep positions light, wait for signals, and don't scare yourself.
I'm Brother Ci, think it over. $BTC $ETH $ZEC $BTC spot ETF net inflow reached $2.4 billion in a single week, with BlackRock's IBIT accounting for nearly half of that. Over the past month, it has accumulated purchases exceeding $1.57 billion, with holdings surpassing 800,000 BTC. Institutions are buying a fair amount, but the price can't even hold above 87,000. The problem lies in the capital structure—since May, the total market value of USD stablecoins has shrunk by about $14 billion, with only a slight rebound after September. Institutions are buying, but the overall market's "dry powder" is decreasing, and incremental funds can't support a one-sided rally. Glassnode characterizes this trend as "speculative and lacking real trading volume support," which is exactly what this means.
The spot $ETH ETF saw a net outflow of about $138 million last week, with funds rotating from ETH to BTC.
$SOL has the most solid capital among the three types. In September, SOL spot ETF net inflows exceeded $271 million, with nearly $200 million inflows in August as well, totaling over $478 million in three months. The staking rate reached 70%, with more than 442 million SOL locked. More importantly, the on-chain ecosystem—tokenized stock holders reached 1.2 million, with 775,000 added in September alone. Funds are bypassing BTC and ETH, flowing toward SOL, which has real ecological applications.
BTC is not short of institutional buying, but it lacks overall liquidity. ETH's upgrade narrative is diluted by controversies over its supply mechanism. SOL has developed an independent structure through ETF capital inflows and ecological lock-ups. Understanding where the funds are flowing is more important than just watching the price. 🚨 Tomorrow could be an interesting day for $ETH and $ZEC. Don’t just watch the price—watch the upgrades.
On October 6, both $ETH and $ZEC are expected to enter important upgrade testing phases.
First, $ETH 👇
Glamsterdam is set to activate on the Sepolia testnet, with a focus on ePBS, BAL, and several Gas mechanism changes.
In simple terms: Ethereum is continuing to work on making the network faster and more efficient. ⚙️
#DailyOrbit $BTC Bitcoin Ethereum Market Analysis
On Monday, Bitcoin filled the upper shadow from two weeks ago before the weekly close, indicating that the major price center of gravity has shifted upward again. Setting aside short-term shakeouts,
the weekly K-line trend is very strong, and the bearish divergence has basically been fully digested, with only the final acceleration wave left to catch the top. Therefore, it is necessary to keep some long positions; this round's high point may reach $89,000 or even $91,000.
ETH is currently in a structurally balanced consolidation window between bulls and bears. Technically, the bullish arrangement is intact but momentum has completely stalled; $2,780 is the key pivot point determining direction; the ETF inflow intensity is much weaker than Bitcoin.
Operation advice:
Buy in batches on pullbacks to 83,000-85,000 $CT Just switched the software to the background, and it suddenly popped up, is it playing hide and seek with me?
When the screen was full of green light, I looked at CT, the selling pressure was strong, trading volume was low, insufficient support, and the rebound was weak. I judged at that time that no one would catch it on the way up, the short position logic didn't change, it actually felt more solid.
Smashed from 0.5063 to 0.4095, +382.77%, really satisfying, the short position was realized, this profit feels good, can treat myself to a nice meal, it was worth the wait.
First take 80% off the table, keep the remaining 20% at cost price protection, move the stop loss to the cost price, if it continues to drop, let the profit run, don't be greedy for the last bit.
The premise of compounding is staying alive, the shortcut to getting rich often leads to zero. The money earned is the realization of your understanding; the money lost is the flaw in your understanding. For friends who haven't gotten on board yet, listen to me, now is not the time to rush, wait for a more comfortable position in the next round, I will notify you immediately.
$SOL $DOGE The Nasdaq and U.S. Treasury bonds keep hitting new highs, but the crypto market seems indifferent, with pressure above and support below, making the recent market cautious and hesitant.
$OKB is today's leading gainer, boosted by two major positive news: 1. OKXICE has applied to the SEC to launch a tokenized stock trading platform; 2. Tomorrow, October 6th, is the OKX NOW new product launch event. The market has oscillated upward from the 121 support level to the recent high of 128.