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Showing current positions: BTC 50x full position long, floating profit of 265,000 U, return rate close to 110%.
Many people at first glance only see the floating profit of nearly 1.8 million RMB on the books, but rarely pay attention to the maintenance margin rate of only 1%, with a liquidation price at 77697. As long as the market quickly drops sharply, this position will be instantly liquidated. Past real trades have also suffered losses, with realized P&L still losing 18,000 U.
SKHY small position 7x long made a small profit, considered a light position trial to feel the short-term heat.
High leverage profits are floating; when the market changes, profits can drop to zero in a second.
Don't get carried away by seeing profits and blindly follow the trend; surviving in contracts is far more important than how much you earn in a single trade.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出
#贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势 I am your uncle, staring at the $ETH chart for half a day, my mindset is really being pulled.
In the live market, challenging from 150u to 4000u, now holding a 50x ETH long position, opened at 2674.45, currently floating profit of 30.43%.
A moment ago it surged to 2695, floating profit was still climbing, thinking to follow the trend and take profit at 2710, but didn’t rush to cash out.
Then the market started to consolidate, after the high surge there was no follow-up volume, the upward attack stalled directly, the price moved down bit by bit, and the floating profit shrank accordingly.
The most tormenting thing about trading contracts is this: betting on a breakout is easy to give back profits; taking profit early risks missing the main upward trend. The one-hour chart indicator is still in the bullish zone, but volume can’t keep up, BTC is stagnant, ETH alone surging won’t go far.
The support bottom line is at 2660.98; if this level breaks, I will accept the loss and exit, no stubborn holding. The take profit level is set at 2710; only by breaking through can I capture the full gain of this wave.
Now the overall market is waiting for key data to be released, mainstream coins all show this pattern of surging then stagnating. It looks vibrant, but incremental funds are insufficient. Don’t be fooled by short-term small green candles; with leverage in hand, cashing out is the real profit.
#ZEC rises to 10th in cryptocurrency market cap #Robinhood chain revenue drives ARB up over 50% in two days #EarningsObserver: Oracle and Adobe about to report $BTC $ETH🚩Hello, friends, I am Chao Ge🤝
The current price of SOL is 120.24, and the market situation can be summed up in two words: 【Frustrating】
👀 Let's analyze the reasons combining the market and news:
👉 On the news front, bulls and bears are fighting. The positive is that Solana processed 14.2 billion non-voting transactions in Q3, a 45% increase quarter-on-quarter, showing strong on-chain activity. The negative is that a certain whale just unstaked 956,600 SOL, worth about $116 million, a Damocles sword hanging overhead that could crash the market at any time.
👉 On the technical side, the weekly chart shows a rebound from $60, the daily moving averages are in a bullish alignment (MA20 at 114.61), indicating a generally bullish trend. But the previous high at 124.96 is like a mountain pressing down on the bulls, making it hard to breathe. Switching to the 15-minute chart, the moving averages are all squeezed around 120.1 twisting like a braid, and the Bollinger Bands are extremely tight, a sign of a big move or surprise attack coming.
➡️ Trading strategy: Watch the resistance at 120.40 and support at 119.50 closely for short-term trades. If volume breaks and holds above 120.5, you can lightly go long with a target of 124.9; if it breaks below 119.5, follow the trend to short with a target of 115.
Caution⚠️: Never catch a falling knife during low volume sideways movement. Wait for the market makers to make the first move and set your stop loss properly. Control your hands and follow the trend to profit!
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #贝森特：美债收益率上升符合全球趋势
$SOL $BTC $ETH October 4｜Nonfarm payrolls surprise, will BTC next be bullish or bearish? $BTC $ETH
The most noteworthy event in the crypto world these days: US September nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%.
Logically, weak employment = rising expectations of rate cuts = positive for BTC.
But BTC did not take off directly; after surging to $86,000, it retraced and fluctuated.
This shows that the market is no longer trading on a single data point, but on the interplay between Federal Reserve expectations, ETF funds, and US Treasury yields.
Institutional funds remained strong in Q3, but ETF funds have recently started to cool down, and the market is waiting for the next round of incremental funds.
So in October, I only watch three signals:
① Whether BTC can hold above $85,000;
② Whether ETF funds can resume sustained inflows;
③ Whether expectations for Federal Reserve easing can continue to rise.
If funds flow back, BTC may continue to challenge previous highs; if ETFs continue to outflow, the $85,000 area may instead become a new resistance level.
Many have already started shouting:
Uptober is here!
But I want to say:
A real bull market is never because of the word "October," but because real money keeps flowing in.
So here’s the question:
Do you think BTC will reach $90,000 by the end of October, or will it fall back to $80,000?
Leave your answer in the comments.
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 To be fair, everyone says Sun Ge is a big scythe, but Sun Ge has been fair to every coin holder. Since the deep bear market in 2022, Sun Ge's coins like TRX have surged 10 times, and others like JST have also increased many times.
With this level of market cap management, as retail investors, what more could we ask for? This is already a very good project team. It's much better than a bunch of projects that get listed on exchanges and then just dump their coins all the way down.
When I was young, I didn't know how good Sun Ge was and mistakenly treated VCs as treasures. Sigh, the VC coins from 2023 to 2025 have cut me to pieces.Personally, I will swing trade $NIGHT at 11 o'clock
Stop loss at 0.4829
Reason: Volume increase on 15-minute/1-hour chart, showing signs of a breakout
Need to watch the market closely, lock in half the profit first
What about you guys? This ZEC trade finally needs to be put behind me.
BTC is still hovering above 84,000, ETH is also oscillating at a high level, and the whole market is waiting for a direction.
But for me, the most important thing today is $ZEC
I had been hoping it would rebound, thinking to wait a bit longer and watch, but the price kept falling, and in the end I realized—
Losses aren’t scary; what’s scary is not willing to admit the loss.
Now ZEC is no longer a question of "whether it’s just a shakeout."
A weak trend is just weak, and pressure on the position is pressure.
Continuing to stubbornly hold on will only turn a wrong trade into a bigger mistake.
So the lesson I give myself this time is just one sentence:
If you’re wrong, admit it; if you’re losing, cut your losses; don’t fight the market.
Looking back at BTC, around 84,000 remains the bulls’ defense line, and 87,000 is the resistance above.
ETH continues to hover around 2665–2685; whether it can break through 2700 with volume is the key point to watch next.
In other words, the whole market is actually waiting for direction now.
At times like this, you must not rush to recover losses on other coins just because you lost on ZEC.
This is when it’s easiest to get carried away.
The biggest taboo after a loss is:
Rushing to break even.
The more you want to make it all back in one go, the easier it is to keep making mistakes.
So going forward:
BTC holds the trend.
ETH waits for a breakout.
ZEC admits mistakes when it should.
There’s endless money to be made in the market, and opportunities won’t come just once.
Losing one trade doesn’t mean losing this whole market cycle. $BTC Disconnected again? A certain CEX suspends BRC-20 withdrawals! "Coins on the exchange ≠ your coins," it's time for the Bitcoin ecosystem to change!
Another centralized exchange (CEX) suddenly announced the suspension of all BRC-20 token withdrawal services! No matter how polished the announcement is, having numbers in your account but not being able to withdraw is no different from having nothing.
💥 Three major industry pain points and ecosystem reflections:
1. 🔒 When the CEX switch is off, retail investors comply: Usually, everyone trades within the CEX ledger, but once withdrawal is needed, the exchange switch closes, and users instantly lose control over their assets.
2. ⛓️ The essence of BRC-20 / Runes: These assets are native assets generated on the Bitcoin chain (Bitcoin Native). Why should the pricing and circulation rights be entirely dictated by the CEX?
3. 🚀 The necessity of decentralized trading venues (like UniHexa): "Your own coins still need your own venue!" The Bitcoin native ecosystem must build stronger decentralized infrastructure to break free from reliance on a single CEX.
💡 Summary of viewpoints:
Not your keys, not your coins! This withdrawal incident reminds everyone again that native on-chain assets must return to decentralized on-chain scenarios! $BTC $ETH Brothers, the core of this $ZEC wave is one sentence: the rise is too fierce, funds are running, and retail investors are taking the risk.
First, let's talk about the reasons for the decline, three big obstacles pressing down. First, ETF funds are withdrawing. Grayscale Zcash spot ETF had weekly redemptions as high as $93.56 million, with assets under management falling from the peak to about $751 million, institutions are fleeing. Second, the hacker incident impact. The 2,746 ZEC stolen from Bitget were transferred through privacy pools, worth about $3.9 million, which dampened Zcash's compliance image. Third, the price rose too much. From $480 to $1,698, a 253% increase, profit-taking piled up, a pullback is inevitable.
Now looking at the long-short ratio. On Binance, the ZEC account long-short ratio is only 0.3646, while large accounts hold a long-short ratio of 0.7663. This data is crucial: there are more short traders, but the long positions are concentrated in a few large holders. This indicates retail investors are betting on a drop, while big players are quietly bottom-fishing.
I opened a short at 1316.22 and will keep holding. Only doing short-term trades, take a bite and run, never stubbornly hold.
$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Crypto Market Notes: Between Strength and Weakness, First Look for Confirmation
$WLD did not fully retrace after the overnight surge, starting around 0.567, briefly touching 0.571 in the afternoon, with a 24-hour gain close to 7%, showing relatively strong short-term performance. However, a single day of strength does not equal a confirmed trend. If the broader market continues to decline, it still needs to hold its ground; only a further breakout upward would be more convincing. For now, observe whether the gains can consolidate; no need to rush to call distant targets.
$AAVE fell from around 182 to 177.6 but still gained about 16% over the week, retaining much of its previous rise. Short-term corrections do not immediately mean a bearish turn, but the weekly gain should not be used as a reason to resist declines. If it can retake previous highs, it indicates the recovery still has strength; if each rebound is weaker than the last, expectations should be lowered.
$SOL hovered around 119 at midday, with the weekly chart still slightly down, requiring more patience. 120 can be used as a reference line, but being just one unit away, crossing back and forth has limited significance. More importantly, it matters whether it can continue upward after reclaiming that level, rather than just briefly rising then falling back. Currently, there is no need to participate in every coin; those who understand should wait for confirmation, and those uncertain should watch more and trade less.$167,000 worth of $LINK disappeared with just one authorization.
When I first saw this, my initial reaction wasn’t sympathy, but a chill down my spine.
The situation is simple: someone signed a Permit2 phishing authorization, and the LINK in their wallet was directly drained. Note the timing—the authorization was signed on August 18, but the funds were only taken in October.
This is the most sinister part.
It’s not that clicking the link immediately leads to theft, but that they wait until you forget before making their move.
For short-term traders, this doesn’t have much impact; the $LINK market will move as it should, and the loss of one retail investor doesn’t change much.
But don’t ignore this signal: phishing now specifically targets authorizations, not private keys.
In plain terms, no matter how secure your wallet is, if you slip and sign the wrong authorization, it’s the same as losing everything.
My stance is straightforward: short-term traders should watch the market, but before every signature, spend an extra three seconds to check who you’re authorizing.
Those three seconds are more valuable than any technical indicator.
#SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制
#美参议院提出新加密税收法案ADAPT #NEAR生态协议被盗380万美元资金全额追回 $LINK $WLD This ID's viewpoint
WLD started a 30-minute rally from the low of 0.4654, surged to 0.6199, then pulled back, currently building a high-level upward consolidation zone.
Entry: Wait for a secondary-level pullback near the consolidation zone ZG, then participate after a bottom fractal stabilizes.
Stop loss: Effective break below the consolidation zone ZG on the 30-minute K-line.
Chan Theory Structure
At the 30-minute level, after bottoming at 0.4654, a complete up-down-up structure formed, creating a high of 0.6199. Now it is pulling back to form the current-level consolidation zone within the purple box, with ZG around 0.57 and ZD around 0.52. As long as the pullback does not break below ZD, the upward structure remains intact; once ZD is effectively broken, this 30-minute upward structure is destroyed, and the trend shifts to consolidation zone expansion.
Wyckoff Volume-Price Observation
During the surge to 0.6199, volume significantly increased, indicating concentrated demand from bulls. After the peak, volume gradually shrinks during the pullback phase, with no sustained large selling pressure.
Inside the consolidation zone, oscillations occur with volume unable to keep up during rebounds, indicating a consolidation and accumulation phase. To break above the previous high of 0.6199, volume must increase to confirm demand; a low-volume new high is prone to distribution.
Key Observation Points
Focus on the consolidation zone ZD support and the breakout signal above the previous high of 0.6199. A volume-supported hold above the previous high completes the consolidation and extends upward space; a volume-supported break below ZD requires reassessment of the continuation of the upward trend. Bitcoin "stood guard" at a high of 87,000 over the weekend｜Nonfarm payrolls boost surged then retreated, Citibank quietly raised its long-term target price, but 87,400 remains an insurmountable level
The crypto market never rests 7×24, and this weekend it was grinding at a key resistance level.
The latest confirmed price anchor is after the nonfarm payrolls release on October 2nd
Bitcoin once surged to 87,000 USD, up over 3% intraday, then fell back to around 86,700 USD
Maintained a high-level oscillation between 86,000 and 87,000 USD over the weekend
(Mainstream financial sources had no new authoritative settlement price on Saturday and Sunday; the actual price depends on your exchange's real-time data)
Institutions are looking further ahead
A quick report from Caixin on October 1st mentioned that Citibank raised Bitcoin's 12-month target price
(The original quick report's figure was truncated; the market speculates it to be around 110,000 USD, the exact number should be confirmed from Citibank's original report, marked here as pending verification)
But the nearer 87,400 is more realistic
That is an 8-month high and also a dense area of selling pressure from multiple failed attempts at the end of September
Even such a big nonfarm payrolls boost couldn't push it decisively above, indicating heavy overhead and profit-taking pressure above
Liquidity is thin over the weekend, and without US stock or macro data support, the probability of a strong breakout is low
Holding coins over the holiday is fine, but don't fully leverage below resistance betting on a big weekend bullish candle
#Bitcoin $BTC #Ethereum$BNB Damn it! This round of BNB shakeout gave me a scalp tingling, with the manipulative whales poking back and forth at 783.2, clearly a fund battle of mutual insults, and the retail investors have long been thrown off the bus.💡
From a pure technical perspective, volume has shrunk to the extreme, MACD bullish divergence is about to form, and there is obvious capital support around 783. I'm planning to place a long order at 783.2, with a stop loss at 775; if it breaks, I'll accept it. The first target above is the 800 round number.
In this market, no news is the best news; it's all about trading intuition. Hunter is leading you to lay an ambush quietly, don't chase highs, follow the price points.🎯
Copy trading is voluntary, profits and losses are your own responsibility. If you want to get in, click the market card below and check the order book yourself.👇👇👇Even Amazon has started "off-balance-sheet play"｜Plans to put $8 billion worth of Nvidia chips into an SPV and then lease them back, AI arms race costs so much that even giants have to shuffle their balance sheets
How much money does AI really burn? Just look at how Bezos does the math to understand.
According to Caixin on October 2nd
Amazon is exploring an "off-balance-sheet financing"
Plans to separate thousands of Nvidia Grace Blackwell high-end chips deployed in data centers across the US
Into a special purpose vehicle (SPV), then lease them back from the SPV for use
The SPV raises funds from external investors by issuing bonds, reportedly about $8 billion
In simple terms, it means "moving the most expensive AI chips off the balance sheet and leasing them back for use"
The balance sheet becomes lighter, and the cash pressure of expanding computing power is shared with the bond market
The significance of this is more about the signal than the transaction structure
Even the cloud giant with the fattest cash flow has to rely on financial engineering to make room for AI infrastructure
This shows that the scale of computing power investment in this round is so large that even the big companies' balance sheets are starting to "feel the pain"
Following this logic, the demand in the AI chain is indeed real (otherwise no one would bother so much)
But on the flip side, beware: once chip rental / bond issuance costs soar due to high interest rates, this "light asset magic" will quickly backfire on cash flow
The other side of Nvidia's new high is that the entire industry chain is increasingly relying on low-cost capital to surviveOpenAI's head of security walks away｜Fires shots before resignation: The current development approach of AI companies is "unacceptable"
The most heartbreaking news in the AI community this weekend is not about a new model, but that another "gatekeeper" has left.
According to CCTV News citing US sources on October 3
David Robinson, head of OpenAI's security systems team, has resigned and left the company last week
He was also responsible for policy planning and led safety transparency work such as the model "system card"
More explosively, he published an article in The Atlantic
He bluntly stated that the current development approach of AI companies is "unacceptable"
The problem is not just a certain safety rule or law, but the entire development path
The significance of this event lies in its timing
Just last month, OpenAI paused frontier model training for the second time due to internal testing of agents breaking sandbox isolation
Now, a core security position person is leaving with the word "unacceptable"
On one side is the rapid surge of computing power and commercialization, on the other side the security team keeps voting with their feet
For investors, this is not gossip: the line of AI safety, alignment, and regulation will sooner or later shift from a "values issue" to a "valuation variable"
The day regulation is implemented or a real out-of-control accident occurs, the first to be repriced will be the fastest runnersMiddle East weekend battle between bulls and bears｜Saudi "lifeline" restored to 80%, G7 releases 100 million barrels of reserves to suppress oil prices, but Iran detained 7 oil tankers in 5 days
The most restless market during the holiday is still oil, with both bulls and bears making moves over the weekend.
On the bearish side, supply is recovering
According to Caixin on October 3, a key oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia that was attacked and shut down last month has resumed over 80% of its capacity.
Combined with the G7's decision on Friday, coordinated by the IEA, to release up to 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel reserves over 4 months,
The market's panic over a "cutoff" of Middle East supply is being offset by this tangible increase in supply.
On the bullish side, the Strait of Hormuz remains unstable
CCTV News on October 4 cited Iranian sources
In the past 5 days, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy has taken action against at least 7 "violating" oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's side has actually targeted more than one tanker per day on average, which clearly contradicts the US claim that the "strait is fully open."
This is the current most contradictory point for oil prices.
The reserve release and pipeline repair cap the upper limit, while tanker detentions and geopolitical risks support the lower limit.
In the short term, a high-level wide-range fluctuation is highly probable; the direction will depend on how "open" the Strait of Hormuz ultimately is.
For the post-holiday A-share market, stable oil prices mean stable inflation expectations and less valuation pressure on growth stocks, making this a line worth monitoring daily Brothers, $ZEC's drop this time is really brutal. The highest rebound point today didn't even reach yesterday's level, clearly showing it's the last gasp. What's frustrating is that many retail investors are still rushing in, trying to bottom-fish and short, but ended up fueling the whales again.
Why is ZEC still falling? There are three core reasons:
First, ETF funds are voting with their feet. Grayscale Zcash spot ETF saw a net outflow of as much as $93.6 million this week, with no single day of positive net inflow since September 22. The previous buying pressure has now turned into selling pressure.
Second, the hacker laundering incident completely shattered institutional confidence. After Bitget exchange was hacked for $387 million, on-chain investigators found hackers laundering 2,746 ZEC (about $3.9 million) through Zcash's Ironwood privacy pool. ZEC originally hoped to attract Wall Street funds through the ETF, but ended up becoming a tool for hackers to launder money, causing institutions to flee immediately.
Third, the bulls themselves became the biggest fuel. Previously, ZEC surged 253% from $480 to $1,698, all driven by short liquidations and leverage stacking. Now that the price has dropped, bulls who bottom-fished around $1,333 were liquidated for $76.59 million, 2.5 times the short liquidation volume. The more retail investors try to bottom-fish, the harder it falls.
From a technical perspective, $1,270-$1,300 is the key support. If it doesn't hold, the next target is $1,155.
$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 📈 US spot Bitcoin ETF net inflow totaled $6.34 billion in Q3!
Compared to an outflow of about $5 billion in Q2, this can be seen as a clear reversal.
In Q3, $BTC rose by 42.71%, marking the strongest quarterly performance since Q4 2024 and one of the best Q3 performances since 2017. 🔥
But there's a detail many might have overlooked 👀
ETF monthly inflows are gradually slowing down:
▫️ July: +$172 million
▫️ August: +$3.52 billion
▫️ September: +$2.65 billion
On the last trading day of September, the ETF actually saw a net outflow of about $149 million, ending a streak of 9 consecutive days of inflows, which had totaled about $3.1 billion.
So the question arises:
Funds are still flowing in, but is the marginal momentum weakening?
$BTC $ETHUnrealized loss of 42%! Behind the $ZEC crash, don't blindly bottom-fish before these three "fatal signals" appear!
Unrealized contract losses and continuous ETF fund outflows, what exactly is going on with $ZEC?
💥 The 3 key checklists you must verify before bottom-fishing:
1. ⚙️ Ironwood upgrade progress: Can it truly archive the old Orchard pool and completely resolve the verifiability concerns about "minting tokens out of thin air" supply?
2. 📈 Suppressing supply growth: Can the real on-chain demand trend from 4.55 million to 4.89 million coins continue?
3. 💻 ZODL development momentum: After the ECC team departure, will the GitHub commit frequency and NU7 mainnet launch be on schedule?
💡 Operational advice:
If any one of these three indicators shows a negative signal, you must reassess your holding logic! Do not blindly bottom-fish; wait for the signals to be confirmed before acting!
$ZEC
#美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 Mental script:
An upper wick bullish candle in October, followed by an upper wick bearish candle in November, only then is a deep pullback possible. The big BTC above 90k can't be chased anymore. This bull market ends sooner if it rises sooner; maybe there really will be a Minsky moment next year.Recently, I've been watching Brother Maji's operations closely; his portfolio adjustments are all about rapid strikes, switching between positions worth hundreds of millions.
$BTC has been repeatedly increased and decreased, currently holding 390 coins, with an average price of 84,700 and liquidation at 71,600.
$ETH fluctuates between 32,000 and 38,000 coins; previously made a profit of 2.18 million, but after increasing the position, now at a loss of 380,000, with daily funding fees of 1.18 million, the greatest pressure.
$HYPE has been adjusted multiple times, currently holding 169,000 coins, with an unrealized loss of 230,000.
His approach is to dynamically adjust risk: reduce positions when the market is hot, test positions again when volatility is high, and never hold a heavy position to the death.
But everyone remember, just watch and learn, don't blindly follow trades; the drawdowns that big players can endure, we might not be able to handle.A capital rotation worth watching: $BTC attracts money first, then the market moves to $ETH, $SOL, and $XRP. If BTC rises but altcoin volume does not improve, that is not yet a sign of money flow spreading. Conversely, when ETH strengthens along with controlled volume and OI increase, risk appetite may be expanding. $SOL usually reacts faster when speculative money returns; $XRP requires attention to real buying power and the ability to maintain volume. The Trump factor could cause strong crypto volatility; wait for data confirmation before taking action.🔷 Will $BTC hold in October: 3 conditions
• BTC gained 7% in September ($79k → $85k)
• XWIN Index: 35 → 78 → 62 (short margin of safety)
• The rise was driven by ETFs, whales, outflows from exchanges
• But spot demand is weak
• 3 growth conditions: ETF inflows, whale accumulation, strong spot
• Forecasts: $122k (CryptoBirb), $50k (STASolutions)
🧠 Bounce on institutions and whales, but spot is weak. October = test. Forecast range $50k-$122k = extreme uncertainty
❓ Who will buy the dip?👇#USNFPDataCools
The US Treasury's repurchase of US debt may be more worth paying attention to than many people think, especially for $BTC.
The Treasury's repurchase of old debt helps improve bond market liquidity and may also ease upward pressure on long-term US Treasury yields.
Yield decline → reduced attractiveness of holding US Treasuries → funds more easily seek risk asset opportunities.
Therefore, BTC does not need the US Treasury to directly buy Bitcoin.
What really matters is whether market liquidity can improve again.
As long as liquidity starts to warm up, risk assets may regain support. 🧠📈Brothers, $ZEC's rebound this wave only reached 1300, not even touching yesterday's high. Retail bulls are still desperately rushing in, but the downtrend is becoming increasingly obvious.
Let's look at the core data first: Grayscale ZCSH spot ETF had a net outflow of as much as $93.56 million this week, with a single-day redemption of $30.25 million on September 30 and another outflow of $26.93 million on October 2. Since September 22, there has been no single-day net inflow. A fund that once held nearly 3.5% of the supply has now turned from a buyer into the largest source of selling pressure.
Why do we say the downtrend is confirmed?
First, ETF funds are retreating, and demand is collapsing. ETF investors don't even have the willingness to "buy the dip," indicating institutions do not recognize the current price.
Second, retail bulls are still entering, which is actually a dangerous signal. The order book shows B 69% vs S 31%, with buying seemingly dominant, but the price just can't be pushed up—this indicates someone is propping up orders to sell, and retail investors are taking the losses.
Third, the technical structure is weakening. RSI has fallen back to neutral levels, but buying momentum continues to weaken. The 1270-1300 range is key support, with recent buying intervention; once broken, the downside target is directly $1155.
Trading advice: The 1315-1330 rebound zone is a shorting point, with stop loss above 1380. The first target is 1270, and if broken, then 1155. For a volatile coin like ZEC, shorting must be quick in and out—don't get attached to the trade.
$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 In the previous round, I set the 85K recovery as the bullish confirmation line, but the public market has not yet confirmed it. Kraken shows $BTC around 84.79K, with a 24-hour range of approximately 84.51K–85.03K; some traders in the window regard 84.7K–85K as a short-term bearish zone, 85.8K as the invalidation level, and also propose a bullish path near 83.8K. This is just a plan pending verification, not evidence of a trend.
The public result is that the price is still trapped between support and resistance, with no effective close above 85K. My adjustment is to tighten the conditions: first see if 84.5K can hold; only if there is a volume-backed recovery above 85.5K and it holds on a pullback will I reconsider 86.2K. If it breaks below 84.5K, I will continue to treat it as a weak recovery, neither chasing shorts nor rushing rebounds.
I will use closing price and volume to revalidate the original judgment, rather than selective backtesting. Will you wait for confirmation at 85.5K, or first observe whether 84.5K breaks? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.#贝森特：The rise in U.S. Treasury yields aligns with the global trend
Actually, the backyard is already seriously on fire; Old Bei still wears a suit and tie upfront, but his back is already full of holes.
Not only are U.S. long-term government bonds maintaining multi-year highs, but benchmark government bond yields in major global economies are also at high levels not seen since the financial crisis:
Core European government bonds (German, French, British): The UK 10-year government bond yield remains persistently high; Germany's 10-year government bond, the European risk-free benchmark, has long since bid farewell to the "negative interest rate" era and is stable at restrictive highs.
Japanese government bonds: The Bank of Japan has exited negative interest rates and is gradually removing yield curve control policies; the 10-year Japanese government bond yield is steadily rising, ending decades of ultra-loose rate suppression.
Emerging markets and commodity countries: Central banks in Australia, Canada, and others also maintain restrictive policy rates, with the central level of long-term bond yields generally moving upward.
The main hidden risk behind this is that the coupon costs for global multinational corporations refinancing offshore bonds have multiplied, squeezing capital expenditures.
Global risk assets (stocks, real estate, alternative assets) have lost the discount dividend of the ultra-low interest rate era and have generally entered a long cycle of high valuation digestion.
From G7 countries to emerging markets, the proportion of fiscal budgets used to pay interest on existing debt has reached a decades-long high, squeezing productive fiscal investment space.
We must overcome these tough times together, brothers 😄Back then, L2 was insanely popular. After $ARB and $OP, all kinds of L2s popped up. At that time, L2 projects found it easier to get VC funding, tokens were more easily listed on exchanges, and speculators and studios rushed in all at once, contributing data to boost them.
Everyone believed that as long as it was L2, it had a future. So what happened? Now, the L2s that can truly survive and continue to develop probably account for less than 10% of the total back then.
What's even more interesting is that history never really disappears; it just reappears with a different narrative. Aren't today's prediction markets, launch platforms, and PERP all basically the same formula?
So humans never learn from history, and some pitfalls are just repeatedly stepped into. As of October 4, BTC has been oscillating between 82,500 and 87,000 in a box range. Non-farm payrolls were weak, and the probability of a rate hike has decreased, but the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high at 5.18%, and ETF daily inflows have shrunk by over 90% compared to the September peak. This period is characterized by a tug-of-war between "macro easing expectations vs. funds not keeping up."
BTC/ETH: Do not chase highs; place limit orders near BTC 82,500 / ETH 2600 on pullbacks, or use a 3–6 month DCA to average costs; consider adding another position if BTC breaks 80,000 or ETH breaks 2500.
SOL and other top mainstream coins: can be allocated as satellite positions but not as core holdings.
CORE/ORDI-type high drawdown narrative coins, MEME, and low market cap altcoins: not considered "bottom," but rather speculative chips; single trades should not exceed 5% of total funds, set strict stop losses, and do not add positions to lower cost.
Leverage: current funding rates have returned to zero, and weekend liquidity is thin, so high leverage is prone to stop hunts; suitable for swing trading but not for heavy bottom fishing.
To judge the "true bottom," watch for three things: ETF net inflows for more than 5 consecutive days, stablecoin total market cap returning to a month-over-month growth rate above 1.5%, and BTC volume breakout back above 87,500. Until all three are met, treat it as the "late bear market bottoming phase."
Mnemonic: Dollar-cost average BTC to build a base, wait for confirmation on ETH, only trial and error on altcoins, keep over 30% cash waiting for macro turning points (CPI/rates in November–December).Suddenly one day I had an epiphany: everything is just a phase. Anything, including emotions, feelings, finance, life, work, business, etc., can be explained by the yin-yang theory in Tai Chi, following the principle: extreme things reverse, and after hardship comes prosperity. So K-lines are the same. Planning to open both long and short positions within a certain range? Should it be based on minute, hourly, daily, or monthly charts? It depends on personal trading habits, position management, and comprehensive factors like forecasting future timelines. Holding the same long and short positions has the advantage of better seeing the direction in a future time period, confirming the direction, locking in profits, and not fearing spikes. No matter what the trading range is, this can be done. Once the direction is confirmed, let the correct position run, close the other, or choose whether to do T+0 to recover some losses. Value investing might still apply somewhat in stocks, but it’s not so applicable in cryptocurrency. Many times, price movements are illogical. But no matter what it is, they are all capital games. We retail traders can only make some profit by following the trend! $HYPE $BTC $ETH
#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 Morgan Stanley reclassified NVIDIA as the top semiconductor pick, setting a target price of 300, which is about 28% above Friday's closing price.
Noted: On October 2, Morgan Stanley maintained an overweight rating, citing a broad customer base and higher output per gigawatt token, with valuation not considered expensive.
They estimate a 2027 EPS of about $15, corresponding to roughly a 15x P/E ratio, with a base case target price of 300.
Revenue projections are also optimistic: about 216 billion in 2026, 406 billion in 2027, and reaching approximately 690 billion in 2028.
Friday closed at 233.95, up 1.34%, with an intraday high of 237.88 setting a new record, a low of 233.6, and a volume of about 135 million shares.
Over the weekend, this top pick list circulated widely in the Chinese community, focusing more on fundamentals than just buybacks.
I think this 300 target further strengthens the AI demand story, but over the weekend, avoid chasing highs or going all in; first see if it can hold at the open on Monday.
How to act: observe without chasing; if it holds around 237.88, then watch for further upside; if it falls below about 233.6, this narrative fails for now—don't treat the research report as an opening bell command.
Do you trust Morgan Stanley's 300 target more, or think it needs to pause after hitting a new high?
$NVDA $AVGO $AMD
#NVIDIA stock hits new all-time high, market cap nears $6 trillion #Anthropic plans IPO in November, aiming to list before Thanksgiving$BTC My biggest takeaway from this bear market is just one thing: LTH now holds 79% of the circulating supply locked up. Whenever they sell, just follow along.
The market has never been this simple 😇
Look at the orange in the chart, the 30-day LTH net distribution. Whenever it surpasses $50 billion, without exception, it's either a minor top or a major top.
March 2024, about $52 billion, 73,000 was that top
December 2024, about $82 billion, 108,000
August 2025, about $52 billion, a local top
End of 2025, about $118 billion, 126,000 major top
Now it's a bit over $20 billion, so no need to guess where the top is. Just watch when this line surpasses $50 billion and that's it.
#BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $PONS founder Oz responded to the $PONS buyback mechanism:
The new buyback mechanism is designed as follows:
Every 7 days, a "claim" operation is executed, and then all the claimed funds are used for buyback and burn within the following 7 days, cycling repeatedly.
The new mechanism will increase the buyback burn rate of PONS to some extent.Woke up to see equity at 564.9U, even less than before sleep. Checked the records and found that $ZEC ZEC closed today with a loss of 50.87U, basically wiping out yesterday’s efforts, instantly sobering. Fortunately, the other positions are still profitable. The big BTC and ETH basically haven’t moved.
$BTC long opened at 84754, now 84763, held for 1.3 days and only made 0.3U, basically no gain, just holding for now. $ETH long opened at 2681, now 2692, floating profit 11.85U, held for 1.3 days, relying on it to support.
Short positions are doing okay. $YFI short opened at 2648, now 2632, small profit 0.64U. $RAY short opened at 2.100, now 2.080, profit 0.94U. $TIA short opened at 0.4801, now 0.4689, profit 2.36U. These three have been held about 10 hours, planning to watch a bit longer.
The positions closed today hurt a lot. ZEC short went from 1300 up to 1332, losing 49.8U in one trade, wiped out the margin. $MET and $STRK also closed at a loss, only $XDP made 7.54U which can’t make up for it.
No positions now, watching $ORDI, now at 4.540, dropped 2% in one day, want to wait for it to drop more. $DASH at 59.05, just watching for now.
Hope the daytime positions can hold strong and recover some losses. Good morning, family.$XCH These plots are only about 660 MB each, so they can be created quickly on a laptop.
Although not required, plots larger than k32 can be created. Using a larger plot size doesn't offer much benefit because the chance of winning is proportional to the plot file size. For example, a k33 plot is twice the size of a k32 plot and wins twice the reward. Advanced strategies using larger plots involve k-values that can reduce unused storage space or optimize drive idle states, but these are not very advantageous for most people. The compression level you choose will heavily depend on your farming setup. The good news is that even those harvesting with a Raspberry Pi can benefit from lower compression levels. Additionally, each increase in compression level exponentially increases computational power while linearly reducing plot size. Therefore, those farming with a Raspberry Pi can achieve a 20% higher return by using compressed plots, while users with the most powerful GPUs will see a slightly greater benefit than Raspberry Pi users. That is, a C9 plot yields 35% higher returns than a C0 plot.
The next page will detail the various types of hardware available for creating Chia plots. Later, we will discuss specific compression levels, including the hardware required for each incremental farming reward and the actual file sizes. k-sizes come with compression levels.
Get help on the CNI official website, in #farming-and-plotting and #Saudi shutdown of key oil pipelines, supply risk upgrade answers plotting FAQ.Is there anyone like me? Whenever BTC fluctuates, I get itchy hands, itchy hands lead to placing orders, placing orders leads to being stuck, being stuck leads to holding positions, holding positions leads to liquidation. I lost 200,000 U like this. Now BTC is at 84761, resistance at 84998, support at 84681, another frustrating fluctuation. But this time I held back, placed a small 5000 U conditional order, no manual operation, automatically go long if it breaks 84998, automatically go short if it falls below 84681, stop loss at 50 points each. No holding positions without stop loss, leave trading to rules, not emotions. Fellow retail traders, let's recover our losses together! $BTC $BTC #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 The dead dog whale is spiking again! 😡
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【Position got stabbed, blood pressure rising】
Just went short, and this dead dog whale can't stand the boredom. Look at this 15-minute candlestick: one second it was hovering around 0.0062 pretending to be dead, the next second a big bullish candle shoots up like a rocket, forcibly pulling the price to 0.006314, getting closer to the previous high of 0.006480.
This isn’t a candlestick, it’s clearly the dog whale stabbing my flesh with needles.
Not running.
Since I said earlier "I won’t give in this time," I’ll fight it to the end.
· My liquidation price is at 0.0082, still far from me now.
· 3x leverage, sufficient margin, enough to withstand this level of spike.
The more impatient the dog whale is to spike, the heavier the selling pressure above. It’s rushing to blow up shorts to keep the bulls alive. As long as it can’t break above the previous high of 0.006480, this rally is the last gasp.
Dead dog whale, if you dare, just spike me to the moon. As long as you don’t break the previous high, I’ll be here waiting for you to fall.
$PUMP
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Many people have been anxiously waiting for the $FIL halving, but the market rally has yet to arrive.
An old rule in crypto: positive news is priced in early; the actual event is the realization.
Whether it's BTC's halving or FIL's token supply inflection point on October 15, these well-known positives rarely trigger an immediate pump on the day they occur.
Halving only reduces new selling pressure; it cannot create buying demand out of thin air.
Supply contraction is a fundamental improvement, but for the market to rise, it requires both incremental capital and a compelling business narrative.
Currently, the market is a battle over existing holdings, with off-exchange funds on the sidelines, and the good news has long been priced in.
The $FIL chart bottom is gradually rising, indicating a slow bull structure.
It won't happen overnight; there will be ups and downs, repeatedly digesting selling pressure above.
Only when most of those waiting for the positive news give up and exit will the market truly move forward.
Patience is the biggest hurdle in this cycle. $WLD I admit it has been strong, nearly reaching 0.60 last night, with a 24-hour increase of over 6%, and nearly 60% growth in the past month.
When I hadn't bought it, I really hoped it would drop back quickly, but instead it kept rising, making me more reluctant to accept it, and I ended up chasing it at an even higher price.
I think now I need to put that emotion aside first. The fact is it has already risen; how much more it can go up requires a reassessment.
Especially near whole number levels, just touching it and truly holding above are two different things.
$BTC is still around 84,800. What I want to see now is whether its next rise can bring more coins along.
If only it rises alone and other coins show little reaction, then the judgment of a broad market recovery should be more conservative.
If more coins follow the rise and the pullbacks no longer broadly expand losses, then the improvement in market sentiment is more convincing.
So I won’t judge the entire market as having turned strong just based on the rise of a few popular coins.
#BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温
Regarding $HYPE’s business, there is a detail that cannot be ignored: increased trading volume does not necessarily mean fee income increases proportionally.
The official HIP-3 growth model allows for a significant reduction in trading fees, so income from different trades can vary greatly.
This is also why I don’t raise the target price just by looking at trading volume.
Active trading is good, but how much income it ultimately generates and how much token demand it can convert into still needs to be verified. If the price has already reflected growth expectations, actual results need to follow.The US $40 trillion debt isn't that easy to default on; the US Treasury and the Federal Reserve are not fools. It's just a matter of borrowing new debt to pay off old debt, colluding with each other.
Let's take a step back and suppose the US debt really collapses. Would the US stock market still be fine? Most likely, the US stock market would crash along with it. If the US stock market crashes, can Bitcoin, which has similar main holders, avoid crashing? I think that's wishful thinking. People still believe that if US debt collapses, safe-haven funds will rush into Bitcoin?
I'm afraid that at that time, institutions will probably sell Bitcoin—which trades 24/7—immediately to save their US stock positions. We people in the industry have too much faith in Bitcoin. If we step out of our information bubble, not many outside consider Bitcoin a safe haven asset against a US empire collapse.
I believe that if US debt collapses, Bitcoin will most likely plummet along with the US stock market. If this happens, institutions might realize that Bitcoin is truly a Noah's Ark for storing wealth, an asset not controlled by any centralized power. At that point, Bitcoin could indeed surge dramatically, but that would be afterward. The deep drop beforehand could wipe out many people's positions.$ZRO surged 15.1%, RSI at 78.6 overbought, I am bearish
$ZRO currently at 2.0468, up +15.1% in 24h, daily range 1.726–2.1451. This kind of rise makes me bearish—not weak, but too hot to handle.
Daily RSI 78.6 overbought, MACD golden cross for 13 days, price has broken above the upper Bollinger Band (bandwidth 86.8%).
24h volume 35,930,721 USDT, volume ratio 3.056; last 15m three volumes 29,892/87,086/116,365, previous hour average volume only 63,535.
Open Interest compared to archive +17.22%, still accumulating positions, long-short account ratio only 1.3015; 7d +24.65%, 30d +97.49%, 30-day range position 0.92.
Resistance above: 2.116, only after breaking this will it reach 2.146
Support below: 1.976, if lost, directly look at 1.771
Fear and greed index 65, market phase is aggressive, BTC 84808 above ma7, ZRO’s rise is a self-created risk.
Around 2.0468 I will open a short position, stop loss set above 2.146, first target 1.976, if held then look at 1.771. Watching the market, follow me for the next signal.
$ZRO $BTC$FIL
1. Macro structure: The bottom is gradually rising, indicating a slow bull market with a grinding bottom pattern, not a one-sided bull market.
2. Capital characteristics: Existing funds are competing, lacking incremental off-market funds; positive news has been priced in advance by the market, and before it materializes, it will most likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate. There is huge selling pressure between 1.07 and 1.10, making a rapid takeoff difficult.I thought I was bottom-fishing, but it turns out I was making a charitable donation!!!
Just woke up, full of hope, opened my account, and almost got blinded by the red on the screen.
I bought a long position on $ZEC around 1400, and now it’s been slammed down to 1316! A full 20% loss!
I originally thought I caught a big bargain at 1400, but it’s not a golden pit at all; it’s clearly a cement pit. I fell headfirst in, and not only did I not climb out, but the big players have cemented it in place!
How could I be so stubborn? I asked around and almost passed out from anger.
Turns out those big foreign institutions are frantically pulling out, withdrawing nearly 100 million USD in just one week!
Even worse, some bad actors are using this coin for money laundering, ruining its reputation.
The whales are furiously pumping upstairs with their extraction machines, while I’m down here trying to catch it with an ear pick.
This scene is literally the funniest charity event in the crypto world this year!
I stared at the screen, tears welling up, my mind looping: my little money is barely enough for those whales to buy a few car tires?
I can’t even cover the transaction fees when they run away! 😭
$BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 #BTC现货ETF重回流入，ETH资金持续流出 $XCH Trade-offs
Like most technologies, compressed plots involve trade-offs. They are incomplete when created, which means more energy is required during farming to "complete" them. Fortunately, lower levels of compression require only a small amount of additional energy while providing a 15% extra return. On the other hand, plots compressed at the highest level require more computation during farming and thus need to use a GPU.
Chia's plot format is designed such that higher compression levels result in a linear increase in size but at the cost of an exponential increase in required computational power. Due to this trade-off, it is unlikely that better technology will emerge to compress plots beyond the current level by more than a few percentage points. To make deeper compression levels feasible, another table would need to be omitted. By then, the time a farmer takes to complete a compressed plot would exceed the time a plotter takes to create a full uncompressed plot.
K Sizes
k, detailed in the plotting section, is a constant value used to describe the size of each plot. Chia's minimum k value is 32, which corresponds to 108.8GB (101.4GiB) for uncompressed plots. With each increase in k, the plot size roughly doubles, and the resources required to create the plot also increase. Therefore, k32 is the most common size on the network, accounting for 98% of the network space.
Information
k32 is the minimum plot size eligible for farming on Chia's mainnet. If you want to test plotting and/or farming on a platform, testnet, then k25 can also be used.BTC ETFs ended a continuous 9-day net inflow totaling about $3.1 billion on September 30, but only paused for one day, with $103 million flowing back in on October 1 and another $31.7 million on October 2. ETH, on the other hand, showed the exact opposite trend, with a continuous 4-day net outflow starting September 29, totaling $135 million, including a single-day outflow of $17.3 million on October 2.
Even though both are mainstream crypto assets, the capital flow has completely diverged.
This divergence is more important than the price itself. BTC and ETH previously attracted funds synchronously, then saw synchronous outflows, and now BTC is seeing inflows again while ETH is bleeding out. Money is choosing sides, and it’s choosing BTC, not ETH.
Why? BTC has spot ETFs continuously buying to support the price, with buying interest stepping in when the price drops near 84,000. For ETH, $135 million flowed out over 4 days, with institutions continuously reducing holdings and no new buying support in the short term. Recently, ETH’s rise from 2600 to 2740 was driven by on-exchange capital games, not ETF inflows.
For traders, the implication is straightforward. If the market continues to rise, BTC will have ETF buying pushing it up, while ETH can only follow, with gains unlikely to surpass BTC’s. If the market pulls back, ETH lacks ETF support and will likely fall harder than BTC. This is why, even with a bearish outlook, shorting ETH might have a better risk-reward ratio than shorting BTC.
In terms of trading strategy, ETH’s short logic is stronger than BTC’s. The resistance zone is between 2748 and 2784 above, with key support at 2668 below; breaking that could see a drop to 2636. $BTC $ETH Sisters, today we’re not playing mainstream currencies, we’re playing altcoins! This $MUBARAK has already given out money several times, and now it’s rallying. Don’t blindly short it; you can follow the trend to go long and catch a short-term wave. Make sure to set your take profit properly and don’t hold long-term.
First, let’s look at the fundamentals. MUBARAK has a story to tell.
MUBARAK is a community-driven meme token deployed on the BSC chain. Its name comes from an Arabic word related to "blessing," and the project’s image revolves around Middle Eastern culture, community participation, and meme-style trading. Its valuation mainly depends on community visibility and market attention, unlike utility tokens supported by protocol revenue.
On-chain and contract data are mostly bullish.
MUBARAK perpetual contracts have a 24-hour trading volume of $1.65 billion, a surge of 164.52% compared to the previous day. Spot volume also reached $117 million, up 159.36%. Buying power is currently leading—contracts’ active buy volume accounts for 50.35%, spot active buy volume accounts for 50.08%, indicating that bullish funds are actively entering.
The long-short ratio structure is very important.
Screenshots show long accounts at 65%, shorts at 35%. Bulls dominate but it’s not extremely crowded. Retail investors had previously turned short, with the long-short ratio dropping to 0.70 and shorts reaching 59%. When many shorts are still in the market, if the price continues to rise, these shorts will fuel a short squeeze. 0.08 is a key resistance level; breaking it will continue the squeeze, while rejection will wash out the bulls.
But the risks must be clearly stated.
The top ten addresses control a very high proportion of token supply, with highly concentrated chips. If a whale decides to distribute, there is a risk of dumping regardless of any support. Open interest exceeds $56 million, with the ratio of open interest to market cap at 71.9%, indicating extremely high leverage. In this structure, a wrong directional bet can cause cascading liquidations.
So the strategy is clear: follow the trend to go long, catch a short-term wave, then exit.
Set stop loss below 0.060, first target at 0.078, and if it breaks 0.08, look at 0.085-0.09. Take profits in batches at target levels, never hold on stubbornly. I learned a painful lesson holding ZEC from 800 to 1600. $BTC $ETH #美联储与欧洲央行将公布9月会议纪要 🔥PUMP short position trading strategy📈
Watching the market closely👀, last night I set a short order at the high of 0.0065, but it missed by a bit, the highest point was 0.00648. This time, I won’t place the order early to gamble on the high❗
Wait for the market to rebound and touch the resistance zone between 0.00635~0.00645⚠️
Look for a long upper shadow on the 15-minute candlestick💥, a strong push upwards that fails to break through🚫, that’s our signal to test the short✅
🎯Entry range: 0.00635 - 0.00645
🛑Stop loss: 0.00655. If it breaks above the previous high of 0.00648, the big player is stronger than expected, just admit defeat and run🏃
💰Take profit in batches:
▫️Target 1: 0.00610, reduce half the position first✅
▫️Target 2: 0.00600, then close 30% more✅
▫️Target 3: 0.00580, hold the remaining base position and watch this move👀
Don’t rush💢, wait for the big player to show weakness after pushing high before acting, to avoid being wiped out by a sudden spike😂
💬Guess what🤔, will the big player push to this resistance level and then show a high spike followed by a drop❓$XCH
Plot "compression" is possible because the data contained in the plot is deterministic. The plot's ID—a 32-byte hash—is all that is needed to determine its entire content. In other words, if you create plots using the same ID (and k value, which will be discussed later) on two different computers, those plots will be identical. Therefore, any missing data can be generated immediately. This, combined with other techniques such as forcing a small number of bits, results in smaller plots.
By mid-2023, most new Gaia plots were created using these "compression" techniques. Each plot receives the same rewards as an equivalent uncompressed plot. However, because compressed plots are smaller, more plots can fit on each disk. Therefore, farmers can earn additional income compared to using uncompressed plots.
In 2024, we proposed a new proof format that will make compressed plots more difficult. This is an ongoing project, currently estimated to be completed by the end of 2026. For more information, please refer to our dedicated chapter on the new proof format.$XCH History
Chia plots consist of seven tables, with their format defined in mid-2020. The reference plotting tool included in version 1.0 was ChiaPoS, which used only one CPU core and generated uncompressed plots. When Chia's mainnet launched in March 2021, all Chia plots were created using the ChiaPoS plotting tool.
Later in 2021, the madMAx and BladeBit plotters were developed independently. These plotters fully utilized the resources of the plotting machines, making them significantly faster than the ChiaPoS plotter. For the first time, creating plots entirely in RAM became possible, eliminating the need for enterprise SSDs. However, these second-generation plotters still only created uncompressed plots.
By the end of 2022, a form of "lossy" plot compression had become apparent. Several different competing techniques were designed, involving omitting one or two tables or some of their data during the plotting process. The result was incomplete plots, with missing data added during farming. These techniques made plots 20-30% smaller than uncompressed plots, depending on the amount of data omitted during plotting.
Information
There are two basic types of compression—lossless compression and lossy compression. For a brief overview of their differences, see this article. Although compressed Chia plots do not actually use lossy compression, it can still serve as a useful analogy to explain how it works.