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【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜BTC September 23】
【Top 10 Crypto Traders' Highlights Today｜BTC September 23】
Within 24 hours, 3 verifiable viewpoints were identified, not reaching ten. Main theme: BTC is not about chasing highs, but about whether the market can accept above 83000.
Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) original view: BTC weekly structure breakout, about 83000 must hold, otherwise it will turn into liquidity grab. Editorial inference: current price about 86091, as long as it does not fall back below 83000, the breakout remains valid.
BigCheds (@BigCheds) original view: publicly discussing "BTC bottom is in." Editorial inference: leaning towards bottom confirmation, but still needs a pullback for validation.
Trader XO (@Trader_XO) original view: don’t just focus on downside space, also consider missing out on upside without position; define risk first then express position. Editorial inference: if 85080 holds, treat as consolidation upward; after retaking 86700, first look at 90000; if volume is insufficient, wait for pullback confirmation first to avoid heavy position chasing in the middle of the range.
Invalidation: breaking below 83000 and unable to quickly recover. Risks: contracts have funding rates, slippage, forced liquidation, and leverage losses. #BTC #ETH #OKB$SUI From the trend perspective, SUI is currently in a pattern of short-term strong breakout and medium-to-long-term pressure, with the price operating in the $1.00-$1.08 range, a 7-day increase of over 43%, but still down more than 70% from its historical high.
Driving factors include: CME futures launch and multiple institutional ETF applications bringing compliance endorsement; Hashi project advancing AI agents and Bitcoin financialization narrative; gas-free stablecoin transfers and confidential transfer functions implemented, highlighting ecological differentiation.
However, risks are also significant: circulation rate is only about 41%, with approximately 64 million tokens unlocking monthly causing continuous selling pressure; TVL has dropped from a peak of 2.6 billion to about 650 million, with user retention below 8%; three mainnet outages in May exposed stability vulnerabilities.
Support below is at $0.99, breaking which may retest $0.80; resistance above is at $1.20, and a breakthrough could challenge $1.60.The crypto community is watching Costco's earnings report, but not for retail—it's for the Federal Reserve's remote control.
Costco doesn't deal with Bitcoin or accept cryptocurrencies, but its checkout data is precisely the most accurate thermometer for gauging U.S. consumer sentiment.
The logic chain is straightforward:
Roast chicken and toilet paper are selling like hotcakes → Americans are still spending freely → Consumer demand holds up → Inflation stickiness won't go away → The Fed's rate cuts get delayed → Bitcoin and altcoins, which rely on liquidity, fall first as a sign of respect.
Conversely, if the earnings report shows weak same-store sales and shrinking average transaction value → Consumer cooling signals confirmed → The market immediately bets on earlier rate cuts → Expectations for U.S. dollar liquidity ease → Risk assets might actually see a "bad news is good news" rush.
So crypto folks are watching Costco's earnings not to see how many chickens it sold, but to see if Americans' wallets are still strong and whether the Fed's liquidity tap will loosen.
$BTC
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Under the sun, there is nothing new; today's market is merely a reprint of the currency over-issuance on the eve of the Roman Empire's decline.
I am brushing away the sedimented layers of ash on the $SOL market surface. The current price of 118.54 USDT is exactly hanging on the fault edge between the Bollinger Bands' upper band at 118.91 and lower band at 116.28. How similar is this scene to the debt crisis of the Athenian city-state in the 4th century BC? The frenzy of greed and the fear of collapse intertwine on the same stone tablet, the direction as blurred as cuneiform eroded by wind and sand.
I do not trust a single-dimensional periodization of history, so before the geological structure is clarified, betting on both sides is the survival strategy. A 3x long leverage to resist possible violent rebounds, a 3x short leverage to guard against cliff-like collapses, with the total position fully hedged and locked. I am like an excavator moving through a dark ancient tomb, eager to dig out legendary coins yet nervously afraid of triggering a collapse trap, allowing no shame of one-sided losses.
Is this the foundation of a new dynasty, or the last low moan before the destruction of Pompeii? Only when a large bullish candle breaks through the upper band with volume, or a decisive bearish candle smashes through the foundation, will I personally dismantle the locked position clamps and unleash one-sided slaughter.
- Target: $SOL 🟢
- Entry: 117.50 - 119.50
- TP1: 124.80
- TP2: 128.50
- SL: 114.20
The inscriptions on bronze vessels have long revealed the cycles of human nature; the fault line is right beneath our feet, and those who blindly bet one-sidedly will ultimately become burial offerings on pottery shards.
#StrategyPlaybook 🏛️🔍$BCH From the trend perspective, BCH is currently in a short-term strong rally while still under pressure in the mid-to-long term. The price has returned to the $330-340 range, with a 24-hour increase of over 25%.
Driving factors include: Grayscale submitting a BCH spot ETF registration application to the SEC, CME Group planning to launch BCH futures on October 19, and rising expectations for institutional entry; the price breaking above the 20/50-day moving averages, confirming a short-term bullish technical structure; Layla upgrading to support smart contracts and NFC payments, partially restoring the ecosystem narrative.
However, risks are also significant: Stochastic RSI is above 86, indicating deep overbought conditions; the daily chart is still suppressed by the 200-day moving average (around $317), and the mid-to-long-term trend has not yet reversed; both ETF and futures await regulatory approval, with the risk of "buy the rumor, sell the fact" looming; actual trading activity is insufficient, DeFi scale is far smaller than Ethereum's, and the "digital cash" narrative is diluted by stablecoins and the Lightning Network.
Support below is at $317-320 (200-day moving average), and a break below may retest $266-270; resistance above is at $347 (24-hour high), and a breakthrough could challenge the $360-380 range.Strategy increased holdings again, Treasury simultaneously added positions
On-chain never lies.
News: Chips are being taken away
Strategy added 950 BTC last week at an average price of $79,670, bringing total holdings to 846,000 BTC with a cumulative cost of $63.8 billion and an average price of $75,416. Simultaneously, Strive also bought 1,355 BTC. Together, the two increased holdings by 2,305 BTC, all purchased below $80,000, while Bitcoin touched $86,000 on Monday. The picture is clear: companies are quietly accumulating near their cost line, while the market is still hesitating whether to break through.
ETF is also gaining momentum. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $1.97 billion in April, the highest since last November, and the Ethereum ETF recorded $356 million.
On the $ETH side, BitMine bought another 27,562 ETH last week, bringing total holdings close to 5.98 million ETH, accounting for 4.9% of circulating supply. The key is the structure—5.07 million ETH are staked, accounting for 85% of holdings. With a staking yield of 2.62%, the annualized income can reach up to $334 million. They are not betting on price but generating cash flow with ETH. Tom Lee’s phrase is interesting, calling the 5% holding target the “Alchemy of 5%” — alchemy.
$UNI is quieter. Three newly created wallets withdrew 782,100 UNI from Galaxy Digital, Bybit, OKX, Binance, and Gate, worth about $6.97 million. New addresses, dispersed sources, withdrawals on-chain—this set of actions is not the rhythm of short-term players.
Market situation: Price hasn’t awakened yet
Bitcoin rose 13.6% in April, marking the best monthly performance in a year, but has not effectively broken the $80,000 resistance, currently fluctuating around $77,000. On-chain exchange net positions remain negative, deepening from -14,850 $BTC on April 12 to -70,988 $BTC on April 21, confirming chips are indeed leaving. Ethereum repeatedly tested $2,400, falling back to $2,287 after the fourth failed attempt in April; the triple top pattern is tough for short-term bulls. $UNI is even heavier, stuck in a narrow range near $3.2, sharply contrasting with those large on-chain withdrawals.
But don’t rush to break out.
Strategy only bought 950 BTC this time, slower than before. Cash balance dropped from $1.3 billion to $1.05 billion, bullets are thinning. BitMine’s continuous buying logic relies on staking yields; if yields decline, this flywheel will slow down. Whether ETF inflows continue also depends on macro conditions.
The logic of these three directions is actually consistent: removing chips from circulating supply. But no one can precisely predict when the price will react after chips are taken away.
Hold spot firmly, don’t chase highs.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 ETH surged to 2800 then pulled back: Four main reasons and key observations
1. 2800 is a dense chip pressure zone
Between 2750–2820, a large amount of trapped positions and take-profit orders accumulate, creating heavy selling pressure above. Short-term funds find it difficult to absorb, so the surge is immediately hammered back.
2. Bullish profit-taking and short squeeze momentum exhausted
Profits accumulated during the rise lead bulls to concentrate on taking profits after hitting resistance. Short positions near 2800 are basically cleared, the short squeeze ends but no new buying follows, so the surge with low volume quickly retracts.
3. Marginal tightening of macro liquidity
Simultaneously, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounds and USDJPY rises, causing the market to reprice the Bank of Japan's hawkish risk. The attractiveness of zero-yield assets declines; ETH is more elastic than BTC, resulting in a sharper pullback.
4. Weak fundamental expectations for ETH
BTC spot ETFs are the main driver of the market, while ETH ETF approval remains uncertain, making institutional funds more cautious. When facing resistance, funds prioritize taking profits on ETH and flowing back to BTC.
Conditions for a true breakout: volume expansion and stable hold above 2820; US Treasury yields falling, USDJPY not sharply dropping; continuous net inflows into ETH ETFs; light selling pressure when retesting 2800.
This time is a false breakout: surge with low volume, surge of sell orders at 2800, short squeeze exhaustion, no spot buying relay, rapid pullback.
Follow-up focus: retest of 2670 support, failure if broken; closely watch ETH ETF funds, 10-year US Treasury yields, USDJPY; pay attention to the proportion of leveraged longs—the heavier the longs at high levels, the stronger the pullback. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 $SOL From the trend perspective, SOL is currently in a strong bullish breakout pattern, with the price returning above $115, a 7-day increase of about 17.7%, and a 30-day increase exceeding 33%.
Driving factors include: SIMD-0525 upgrade reducing slot time to 250ms, improving network throughput; spot ETF net inflows for 12 consecutive weeks, Bitwise BSOL attracting $47.62 million in a single week; record 5.2 billion on-chain non-voting transactions in August, tokenized stock holders surpassing 850,000; Alpenglow upgrade expected to enhance performance narrative.
However, risks are also significant: daily RSI reaches 84, deeply overbought; price approaching the previous high resistance zone near $120, with considerable profit-taking pressure; FTX liquidation selling pressure and 4.7% annual inflation rate constitute ongoing supply pressure; if the broader market pulls back, the high Beta characteristic will amplify the decline.
Support below is focused on $110-111; breaking below may retest $102-105; resistance above is at $120, and a breakthrough could challenge $130-135. 1 million USD, Raydium jumped in first
Raydium exchanged 1 million USD from its treasury into USDv.
The data looks like this: USDv is a fully backed stablecoin issued by Solomon, backed by US short-term Treasury bonds.
What is it betting on: Solomon chose Raydium as the main liquidity pool, and the yields are shared with LPs and traders.
In simple terms, it’s putting its own money to endorse the partner.
The stablecoin’s yield comes from Treasury bonds, not from new money, which is more honest than many projects.
Launched on September 23, a one-time opt-in, no lock-up, no staking.
What I admire is not the 1 million, but that it dares to tie the treasury and the partner together.
If it were you, would you let the project team use the treasury to back a stablecoin that hasn’t even launched yet?
#Apple、Google招聘稳定币相关人才，或进军加密支付？
#美债短端供给或增万亿美元 #欧洲央行上线代币化结算平台 $HYPE $DOGE From the trend perspective, DOGE is currently in a short-term strong rebound driven by leverage, with the price returning above $0.10 and a 7-day increase of about 22%.
Driving factors include: Bitcoin breaking through $85,000 triggering massive short squeezes and capital rotating into high Beta assets; net inflows recorded in DOGE-related ETFs, improving market sentiment; technical breakthrough of the 200-day moving average, triggering trend-following capital entry.
However, risks are very significant: 7-day RSI reaches 93, indicating an extremely overbought state; open interest surged 16% in one day to $1.49 billion, dominated by leveraged funds rather than spot accumulation; $0.10 is a key psychological resistance, and if the short squeeze buying weakens without real demand, there is a risk of a rapid pullback.
Support below is at $0.087 (200-day moving average), breaking which would invalidate the trend; resistance above is at $0.10, and a breakthrough could challenge the $0.105-$0.110 range.Here's a counterintuitive truth: exiting the market is itself a position.
These days, the screen is full of profit-making effects, $BTC breaking 80,000, $SOL once surging over +9%, and the comment section is full of "got on board and made a killing," but I haven't moved a finger. Some say I missed out, some say I'm cowardly. But after trading for a long time, you realize the most expensive emotion isn't the pain of losing money, it's the itch of watching others make money—FOMO pushes you to jump in at the hottest, highest, and least safe point, only to become the last one holding the bag.
I'm empty-handed not because I have no opinion, but because I'm unwilling to pay this premium for the "sense of participation." Missing out just means less profit; chasing highs and hitting the top can mean real loss. These two are fundamentally different.
Can you tell the difference between "missing out" and "losing money"?Is this market trend specifically designed to deal with all kinds of resistance?
When you short, it pumps; when you go long, it dumps.
Now I want to go flat, is it about to take off again?
Is the dog whale monitoring me through my phone? 🤯
BTC is hovering around 86200, touched 87350 yesterday,
33-week high, now resting at 86000.
MVRV crossed above the 365-day line; if it holds, watch for 126200,
but don’t dream too early, hold your ground first.
ETH at 2742, up 0.14%,
pressed down by BTC, market dominance dropped to 11.45%,
contract open interest broke 17 billion, leverage funds rushing in,
shorts getting liquidated, RSI at 64,
hesitating below 2800, only a breakout can trigger a wave.
USELESS at 0.295, down 2.26%,
but jumped from 0.184 to 0.284 in 24h,
playing with heartbeats.
Some got 3x returns from 0.06,
purely sentiment-driven, no fundamentals,
don’t be the last one holding.
Total market cap back to 3 trillion?
The brighter the fireworks, the more you should check your pockets.
Stay flat to stay safe, let the empty city strategy play out.
Personal rant, not investment advice.
$BTC $DOGE $ETH
#BTC财库优先股融资升温
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $BTC From the trend perspective, BTC is currently in a consolidation pattern following a strong rebound, trading above $86,000, with a 7-day increase of over 13%, reaching an 8-month high.
Driving factors include: the CLARITY Act being blocked and the negative impact of interest rate hikes leading the market to shift towards a "policy and liquidity recovery" narrative; spot ETF funds turning positive again, BlackRock IBIT single-week net inflows hitting a record high; the SEC introducing "innovative exemption" rules for tokenized stocks, marginally improving regulation; price reclaiming the 50-week moving average, triggering trend-following capital inflows.
However, risks are also significant: the Fear and Greed Index at 78, indicating extreme greed; derivatives open interest exceeding $156 billion, with longs accounting for about 71%, showing a crowded leverage structure; options open interest at the $90,000 strike price reaching $2.7 billion, facing considerable profit-taking pressure if breached.
Support below is at $83,000, with a break possibly retesting $78,400; resistance above is at $87,000, with a breakout likely to test the $90,000 level. #ZEC38KShortClosed 🐋🔥 A ~$35M ZEC short loss may NOT be the full story. A Garrett Jin-linked wallet reportedly closed around 38K $ZEC shorts near ~$1.46K, while ZEC pushed toward the ~$1.53K area during the unwind. But the bigger clue 👀👇 🐋 ~202K $ZEC spot reportedly remains ⚡ Massive short exposure removed 📈 Funding surged during the squeeze 🛠️ NU7 upgrade narrative is approaching ⏳ Faster block times could become a new catalyst This makes the trade look more like a hedge + leverage play Don't just watch the price when monitoring the market, watch the fuel. This wave of $BTC has been squeezing shorts all the way up from below 80,000, relying on the diesel of shorts being forcefully liquidated in succession. But the data has been changing these past two days: the 24-hour liquidation structure, which was a complete bloodbath for shorts a few days ago, is gradually shifting to a balance between longs and shorts — indicating that most of the shorts that could be squeezed out have basically been burned off.
At the same time, open interest has also started to slightly decline, especially for $ETH and $SOL, with leverage quietly exiting. Fuel running out + price stagnation are characteristics that appear at tops, but note — these are "characteristics," not "triggers."
I've always said, don't just short naked at the top just because of overbought conditions; that's like using yourself as diesel. If you really want to act, wait for a 4-hour candle close to confirm a breakout. Now? Keep waiting. What confirmation signals are you watching for?#SOL continues its upward momentum, with capital and on-chain demand resonating. This heat is spilling over to high-volatility small-cap assets like BSB. However, BSB's short-term and long-term trends are clearly conflicting. My judgment is: short-term bullish bias, mid-term still constrained, so be cautious when chasing highs.
Current price is 0.10756, just 0.01% below the 24h high, with a solid 1-hour uptrend structure; but the 4-hour trend remains downward, 7.28% below the high. The buy-sell strength ratio is 0.80, with the top 10 sell orders at 1074 outweighing buy orders at 861, indicating real selling pressure above. Funding rate is slightly positive at 0.0342%, with open interest at 11.888 million coin-based contracts. Bullish sentiment is warm but not extreme. Trading volume is 1.295 million, not very strong.
Strategy-wise, consider light long positions on a pullback to 0.10427, with a stop loss at 0.10163 and a target of 0.11109; if volume breaks above 0.10924, chase longs with a stop loss at 0.10681 and a target of 0.11632. Keep position size under 20%, only trade short-term until the 4-hour trend turns bullish, and avoid prolonged battles.
——This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wishing you successful trading.——
$BSB#SOL continues its upward momentum, with capital and on-chain demand resonating
#SOL continues its upward momentum, with capital and on-chain demand resonating $BSB The global expectation of rising high interest rates is putting pressure on risk assets, with CL, as a highly volatile product, taking the brunt. I judge the short-term bias to be bearish but expect a recovery demand after a deep drop. Looking at the market, it fell 2.8% in 24 hours to 89.57, with highs and lows at 93.81 and 88.68 respectively, trading volume at 20,224,000, and a zero funding rate indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears. Open interest remains at 440,000 without withdrawal, the order book buy/sell ratio is 0.88 with sellers slightly dominant, declining over 1 hour but rising over 4 hours, price distance from the 4-hour low is only 0.07%, and support near 88.68 is worth watching. Strategically, lightly buy on a pullback to 88.75 with a stop loss at 87.95 and a target of 91.65; if a rebound to 92.35 is resisted, then short with a stop loss at 93.15 and a target of 89.85, keeping position size within 20%.
— For personal opinion only, not investment advice. Wishing you successful trading. —
$CL#OKX Prophet: Will Costco's quarterly earnings beat expectations?
#全球高利率预期再升温 $CL Let's talk about something outside the crypto circle but currently boosting it. Today, Trump said that the U.S. will rename "Artificial Intelligence" to "Super Intelligence"; OpenAI launched GPT-6, Microsoft is cutting Copilot to half price and pushing AI "super applications." Wall Street money has been pouring aggressively into risk assets these past two days. $BTC holding steady at high levels is largely riding this AI tailwind.
But a reminder: tailwinds eventually come with a bill. These companies' massive capital expenditures haven't yet shown up in their profit statements, but valuations have already been driven sky-high. When the market starts to settle this account, the first to be thrown off are usually those assets that are just riding the hype with the weakest fundamentals — many altcoins in the crypto space fall into this category.
Borrowed gains depend on who ultimately takes over. How long do you think this AI hype can last? The recent bear market has been shorter and less brutal than before — which says something about demand: the market is holding up better.
What if 2021 wasn’t the template? What if that bull run was just an exception, and we’re now simply back to the kind of performance $BTC naturally shows across cycles? $ETH
Shorter drawdowns, firmer bottoms, more durable demand. This isn’t weakness. This is maturity. The macro environment is supporting it too — institutions haven’t exited, liquidity is shifting, and the halving still matters. $SOL
If this is the old $BTC returning — the kind of $BTC that climbs more steadily and smoothly through cycles with less drama — then patience will win. Hold through the noise. This might be a return to normal, not a broken cycle.$SNDK
This wave really makes people's scalps tingle. From 1742 to 1908, a big bullish candle in 15 minutes, 1.2 billion U traded in 24 hours, the dog whales didn't even give the shorts time to react. The internal sell-off news, the 10b5-1 plan set in May, the negative news was already fully priced in, the landing actually became the starting gun. The AI storage hard logic is indeed top-notch, 600% within the year is not an exaggeration, NBM long contract locked until 2027, HBF also has wafers, fundamentals are solid.
But the price is now hugging the upper Bollinger band at 1898, the short-term heat is intense. Chasing longs at this position is like catching a flying knife with your eyes closed. Personal opinion: take profits on low-position longs in batches, don't FOMO into empty positions, wait for a pullback to 1870-1874 to stabilize before watching; admit defeat if it breaks below 1840, and only consider entering again after holding above 1909.Recently, $ZEC has been really strong, surging to around 1628 in 4 hours, +5.5% intraday, +30% in 7 days, and even more impressive +650% in 180 days.
But now I'm actually hesitant to chase.
Because $BTC has returned to around 85,000 in the past two days, and $ETH is also recovering, but ZEC's momentum is clearly much stronger than BTC and ETH.
I've been burned by this kind of market before: seeing strength and chasing, only to have a single pullback wipe out the profits.
Now I'd rather wait. If ZEC really has sustained capital inflow this time, we shouldn't just watch if it can break through 1628, but also see if there's support around 1500 on a pullback.
The biggest fear for a strong coin isn't slow growth, but everyone thinking "it can still go up" and rushing in together.
I'd rather earn less for a while than provide liquidity to the market again. At the evening close, the account still had one leg missing—holding no positions overnight. The comment section started nagging again, "The empty god only watches." So let me explain what actually happened in today's market: $BTC hovered around 86,000 all day, with almost zero change in 24 hours, while $ETH and $SOL slightly closed in the red. The parabolic squeeze from the past two days has shifted from "accelerating" to "stalling."
If you understand poker: when the flop doesn't match your hand, the best move isn't to chase hard but to ease off and wait for the next card. Right now, the community cards aren't cooperating—bullish momentum is fading, but the bears haven't confirmed a breakdown. At this point, going all in is just guessing on both sides.
I'd rather stay empty-handed and save my bullets for when the cards become clear. Do you think this is just a breather or a market top?US short-term Treasury supply may increase by trillions of dollars, and liquidity expectations loosening often first benefit high-beta altcoins. KAITO rose today but seems more like a sentiment recovery rather than an independent trend. I tend to be cautiously bullish. Looking at the market, the price has risen steadily from the low of 0.3425, currently at 0.3682, approaching the daily high of 0.3691. Both the 1-hour and 4-hour charts show an upward structure; the buy-sell ratio is 1.52, with buy orders at 57,000 outweighing sell orders at 38,000. The funding rate is only 0.0050%, with open interest at 12.916 million coins. Sentiment is warm but not overheated. Strategically, lightly buy on a pullback near 0.3604, with a stop loss at 0.3512 and a target of 0.3868; if volume breaks through 0.3715, increase positions and move the stop loss up, keeping total position within 20%.
— This is only a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Wish you successful trading. —
$KAITO #AMD market cap surpasses $1 trillion, chip stocks rally collectively
#美债短端供给或增万亿美元 $KAITO Shorting these past few days has been really brutal……
Back when I first traded crypto, the first thing I did was look at the K-line charts, but now I increasingly feel that what really matters might be the financial reports and cash flow.
Why?
Tether can earn $491 million a month, Circle about $200 million, Hyperliquid around $60.6 million, and Pump.fun can also make about $54.4 million.
These projects make money in completely different ways, but they share one thing: they don’t just tell stories every day, there are real people paying.
In the past, the market rose based on whoever had the strongest narrative, but now people are starting to do the math—how much revenue? How’s the cash flow? Is the business model sustainable?
And my biggest takeaway recently is: don’t fight the trend.
Shorting various coins these days has repeatedly taught me a lesson. The more I hold short positions, the more uncomfortable it gets, yet the market keeps pushing up wave after wave.
Could the bull really be here?
I’m even starting to waver now: instead of staring at K-lines every day looking for shorting opportunities, maybe it’s better to just hold some spot quietly and wait for Bitcoin to hit $100,000?
Of course, $100,000 is just my personal target, not a guarantee it will happen.
But at least this market cycle has taught me one thing:
K-lines can deceive you, emotions can deceive you, but real income and cash flow at least deserve a serious look.
Brothers, if it were you, would you still dare to continue
$BTC
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 21Shares is not "telling stories" this time; they are directly putting ZEC and ETHFI into traditional brokerage accounts.
21Shares has launched physically-backed Zcash ETP and ether.fi ETP on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, allowing investors to gain exposure to ZEC and ETHFI through traditional brokerage accounts without having to custody the tokens themselves. For ZEC, this is more like a direct expansion of a compliant channel; for ETHFI, the reach has increased, but the trading volume and net capital inflow are the things to watch next.
If real trading volume doesn't materialize after listing, the market sentiment, no matter how hot, might just be a temporary buzz. Conversely, if capital keeps flowing in, the scarcity narrative of ZEC and the traditional account coverage of ETHFI will be easier to reprice. Would you rather first see the institutional buyability of ZEC or the volume expansion of ETHFI?I took this Microsoft news to ask a friend who just entered the circle what he thought, and he said this was positive for AI. I thought so at the time too, but later realized I was looking at the wrong place.
Microsoft is increasing the Copilot discount while launching a super app; the mechanism is that it wants to grab user scale. The discount means the revenue per user is being squeezed, and the super app means it wants to hold the entry point in its own hands. This chain of transmission will first squeeze out small and medium tool vendors who make money by selling AI subscriptions.
The verification signal I’m watching is the growth rate of paid Copilot seats in Microsoft’s next quarterly report. If the discount increases but seat growth does not rise, it means they are not grabbing new users but subsidizing the existing base. There is currently no direct evidence for this step.
#AI降速争议未退，算力投入继续加码
#闪迪纳入标普100，焦点转向AI需求 #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 $ZEC ZEC up 25 times in one year, do you still dare to chase it?
Don't rush to get on board just yet.
How crazy has ZEC been recently?
The current price has reached around $1530, with a market cap of about $26 billion, breaking into the top ten by market cap among all coins.
It just broke $1000 on September 4, surpassed $1300 on September 16, and then continued to surge to $1568.
In one year, it has increased nearly 25 times!
Here comes the question—
After such a huge rise, why is capital still flowing in?
Is this rally driven by fundamental upgrades, or is it just capital pushing the price higher and higher?
Let's look at the first tailwind.
The NU7 upgrade passed with a high vote, reducing block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, further improving privacy transaction speed.
The second tailwind is the community's support for the halving mechanism.
Over 98% of votes support retaining the Bitcoin-style halving mechanism, and the market has started to label ZEC as the "privacy version of Bitcoin."
The third tailwind comes from capital.
Grayscale's ZEC spot ETF has already surpassed $400 million in size.
Technical upgrades, halving narrative, plus ETF capital—these three forces combined make it hard for ZEC not to heat up.
But problems also arise.
After a 188% rise in one month, can you still chase it?
After surging to 1568 last night, growth stalled, and the short-term has clearly entered a high volatility zone.
Can 1568 be broken?
If it breaks 1800, will capital continue to chase?
If it can't break through, can the 1300 to 1400 range become a new support zone?
So what’s really worth watching now is not just "Can ZEC still rise?"
But—
After this explosive rally, is capital still passing the baton, or is it already preparing to cash out?
The elasticity of privacy coins can be large, and the speed of pullbacks can be just as fast.
Next, whether the 1568 level can truly hold might be the key observation point for the next phase of the market. Good morning, let's break down the structure of the departure segment. Currently, the departure segment as a whole is a three-level departure structure at the 30-minute level. The top part has already formed a five-minute level and is in the process of extending. If it can quickly break upward away from the central pivot, I think a significant reduction in position is needed, but keep a small portion of the position to observe the strength of the five-minute departure segment, because we need to guard against the possibility of the five-minute level dropping to form a larger central pivot. Unless the upward momentum is strong enough to form a third five-minute central pivot, which is a high requirement, it’s better to keep a smaller position. Another variation is the current structure under the five-minute level, and the third variation is the continuous extension of the central pivot, that is, a sideways consolidation to expand into a larger level. Currently, I am still fully invested. Yesterday, I just happened to do a small long position using borrowed margin, and I am still holding coins waiting to see which form the trend will take to expand the level. I have broken down the current structure of the departure segment of the four-hour level central pivot.dy been withdrawn by attackers and transferred to external wallets remain permanently in circulation, known in the market as ghost chips. Why did the project team choose no rollback and no destruction? The project’s consideration essentially involved a trade-off between the "public chain decentralization narrative" and the "interests of secondary market token holders." 1. Fear of being accused of centralized ledger tampering The fundamental blockchain principle is that once the ledger is oExtreme Greed Index at 78, yet $ONDO fell 3.69% against the trend, which is the most abnormal detail on today's market — a drop instead of a rise at an extreme sentiment level indicates limited willingness of bulls to buy near the current price. However, the decline is strictly capped below the upper Bollinger Band at 0.440153, resembling a low-volume pullback rather than a trend reversal.
The moving average structure remains bullish: MA5=0.4374 is above MA20=0.43363, with short- and mid-term MAs maintaining a bullish alignment. The price at 0.4413 stands above both lines; a pullback without breaking them is considered a healthy turnover. The MACD histogram +0.0009359 is still above the zero line, indicating bullish momentum is alive, though the histogram slope is slowing. Combined with an RSI reading of 57.0, which is neutral to slightly strong, this suggests a continuation of the uptrend rather than a topping signal. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing between 0.427107 and 0.440153, with the price running close to the upper band. A breakout requires volume support, but the 24h trading volume is only 32.2M USDT, clearly insufficient to sustain a strong rally.
The funding rate of +0.0050% shows bulls have a slight premium but are not overheated, diverging from the extreme greed index. This is the point I care about most: high sentiment without leverage frenzy actually favors a shakeout before another rise.Compare this: Last time BTC was around 86000, it later surged above 87000. Now it's 86180 again, with resistance at 87000 and support at 85070. Will history repeat? I don't know. But I have a small 5000U long position, stop loss at 85070, reduce position at 87000. Losing 200,000U and recovering, history won't simply repeat, but it will rhyme. $BTC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Brothers, after BTC and ETH surged, they started to catch their breath; someone is selling above 86,000
$BTC $86,140 | $ETH $2,752
Bitcoin fell slightly by 0.5% in 24 hours from a high of $87,350 to around $86,140. Ethereum, after surging to $2,763, faced pressure and retreated to $2,752, down about 0.9%. In the past 24 hours, the entire network liquidated $1.03 billion, with shorts accounting for $840 million and longs only $190 million. This rally is a typical short squeeze—shorts stubbornly held above 80,000, and BTC’s surge triggered a chain liquidation.
ETF inflows nearly reached $1 billion in a single day, but ETH’s trend looks different.
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $999 million in one day, a new high since 2026, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounting for $381 million. Arkham data shows BlackRock’s two ETH ETFs bought a total of $1.01 billion in Ethereum over the past 20 trading days, with ETHB having inflows on 13 of the last 14 days. However, Ethereum ETFs had a net outflow of $141 million yesterday, with none of the nine products seeing net inflows; Fidelity’s FETH led outflows with $63.4 million. BlackRock is buying while others are selling—internal institutional divisions are widening.
CryptoQuant points out that BTC has broken above the 365-day moving average, targeting $126,200
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 A few days ago, I said I would open a $PONS trial position to feel the market's strength.
I didn't expect the strength to be this fierce.
Yesterday, looking at PONS's various indicators, compared to the peak some time ago, protocol revenue, buyback and burn, and new coin issuance—all these indicators have dropped significantly. I simply dare not add to my position!
At first glance, it actually rose so much. The main problem is that after moving to the secondary market, the entire logic and capital flow have changed; you can't use the old mindset.
If you do, you'll get hit.$XRP bill veto drops 10%, but $XRP's ETF is quietly accumulating — three sets of divergence data
(Alternative ① 13-year lowest RSI, coinciding with next month's 1 billion token unlock ② XRP current price 1.57, both bulls and bears are pretending to sleep)
$XRP has bounced from 1.29 to 1.53–1.57 these past two days. On the surface, it looks like a rebound following the broader market, but breaking down the data, its structure is completely different from BTC.
Divergence One | Price plummets, capital surges
On September 15, the "CLARITY Act" failed in the Senate 50:49 (60 votes needed), and XRP dropped from 1.40 to 1.29 that day, down about 10%.
After the same day: Franklin Templeton's XRPZ absorbed $3.5 million in a single day, accounting for 100% of the net inflow that day, with a September total of about $483 million. The total net inflow for all spot XRP ETFs is about $1.66–1.7 billion, with the week of August 28 seeing a single-week high of $110 million, marking seven consecutive weeks of positive inflows.
The bill is gone, but the money hasn't left. This is XRP's strongest card — seven US ETFs hold nearly 1 billion tokens.
Divergence Two | Lowest RSI in 13 years
The two-week RSI dropped to 33.5, the lowest since XRP's 13-year listing, even lower than during the 2018 bear market, the March 2020 liquidity crisis, and the 2022 FTX collapse.
But note: an extreme RSI only means "selling pressure has been fully tested," not a reversal signal. To confirm a trend, it must stand back above the 50-week moving average (around 1.52 or higher).
Divergence Three | Spot vs Futures, 5x difference
Single-day futures volume is $5.71 billion, while spot is only $1.36 billion. This rally is leverage-driven — after BTC broke 84,000, about $300 million of XRP shorts were forcibly liquidated within an hour, which is passive buying, not active allocation.
Binance XRP futures open interest returned to 307.7 million tokens, exceeding the 304.4 million before the vote.
A risk that must be marked on the calendar: October 1.
Ripple releases 1 billion tokens monthly from custody, with about 32.6–37.5 billion tokens queued. The release on September 1 did not crash the price (this is the bulls' strongest evidence), but if the same scale hits again next month, who will be the buyer?
Key levels: 1.5 is this week's lifeline; breaking below opens the way to 1.00; first resistance above is 1.64, then 2.00–2.70 (2025 high zone), historical high at 3.65.
One question: RLUSD scale has grown to $2.44 billion, a 41% monthly increase, but nearly half is on Ethereum — does this compliance dividend belong to XRP or Ripple the company? Share your thoughts in the comments.
#XRP #Ripple #ETF #OnChainData #MarketAnalysis
Data sources: Glassnode, CryptoQuant, Binance Futures data, SoSoValue, Farside. As of September 23, for information organization only, not investment advice. Can a single moving average determine if a trend is healthy? Yes, but you need to look at the "alignment" rather than the "golden cross."
$BCH Currently, this is a typical example of a bullish alignment: MA5=339.74 is higher than MA20=306.08, and the price 344.8 stands above both moving averages, indicating that short- and mid-term costs are rising in sync and the trend structure is intact. However, the healthiness is discounted — RSI=82.2 has entered the overbought zone, the upper Bollinger Band at 370.484 is the current ceiling, and after a 24h surge of 29.19%, the price is running close to the upper band. The fear and greed index at 78 shows extreme greed, and the funding rate of +0.0100% indicates bulls are paying to hold positions, meaning the cost of chasing highs is relatively high.
A reusable method is: use moving averages to check direction, RSI to check position, and Bollinger Bands to check space. Only when all three resonate can it be called a healthy trend; if moving averages are bullish but RSI breaks 80 and price hugs the upper band, it means "trend exists but position is expensive," so the approach is to wait for a pullback rather than chase. MACD histogram +2.787 is still bullish; a pullback that does not break MA5 is a buying opportunity.
In terms of operation, I am biased bullish but do not chase highs: entry reference is 335–341 (pullback to MA5 line), take profit 1 at 356 (reduce position near previous high), take profit 2 at 370 (Bollinger upper band), stop loss at 322 (breaking below the MA20 upper buffer zone, trend structure fails).ETH｜SNDK｜ZEC Trend Outlook
ETH 2790 range: Currently testing the 2800 supply zone. Historical structure indicates liquidity needs to be absorbed here. After a breakout, resistance levels are at 3063 and 3391, with a flag pattern target of 3520. Peter Brandt suggests a long-term resistance at 5000; after breaking through, the target is 8600. The key support below is 2550; breaking below increases the risk of retesting 2000. A whale OTC address has increased holdings by 4500 ETH, with a position of 37,000 ETH at an average price of 1922, currently floating a profit exceeding 30 million.
SanDisk SNDK around 1874: Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a buy rating and a target price of 2400, believing NAND is transitioning from a commodity to a key component of AI infrastructure, reasoning that the surge in data volume drives demand for density and durability. Consensus target price is 2166, with 28 out of 33 analysts rating it buy or strong buy.
ZEC around 1492: Up over 70% in 30 days, currently in a price discovery phase after a bullish triangle flag breakout. Next targets are 1700 to 1850, with a mid-term target of 2200. Trader Taiki's framework: ZEC currently represents about 1.8% of BTC market cap; first profit-taking zone is 3% to 4%, with a bull market scenario at 20% corresponding to 20,000. Around 1600 is short-term resistance; holding above confirms the breakout.
This does not constitute investment advice, DYOR.#ZEC38KShortClosed A $35M loss might not tell the whole story
A Garrett Jin-linked wallet closed its entire ~38K ZEC short, helping ZEC climb ~2.7% during the unwind. But here's what caught my attention: it reportedly kept ~202K ZEC spot.
That suggests the short may have been partly a hedge, not simply a failed bearish bet.
With NU7 approaching and funding still elevated, ZEC's next battle may be less bulls vs bears and more leverage vs fundamentals.
$ZEC Morning roundup📝
$HYPE continues to surge, $BICO slightly rebounds, maintaining a pattern of one profit and one loss.
$HYPE: Full position 20x long, entry at 73.897, current price 97.003, unrealized profit +3470.40U, return rate 476.86%. The giant whale bulls still hold absolute dominance, long-to-short ratio at 326.11%, 1041 traders holding long positions, with 95.29% of longs in profit, funds remain bullish.
$BICO: Full position 8x long, entry at 0.03495, current price 0.02274, unrealized loss -1233.18U, return rate -429.86%. Slight rebound, but short positions still outweigh longs, rebound strength is weak.
Margin ratio for both positions is 3.81%, still in a high-risk zone. HYPE is continuously expanding unrealized profits with the trend, while BICO remains deeply trapped. Overall account is profitable on paper, but vigilance is necessary under high leverage; unrealized profits are not realized gains, and if the market reverses, both positions face strong liquidation risk. Plan to gradually realize some HYPE profits to reduce overall account risk and no longer hold high-risk positions.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 #BTC surged to $87000, and the total crypto market cap returned to 3 trillion. The Gulf Six countries most desire the reopening of the Strait for navigation, which aligns with the conditions set by Iran, increasing the probability of a diplomatic breakthrough.
However, Trump's dual-track approach of "negotiating while threatening" means the geopolitical premium on oil prices will not dissipate immediately. The real support for this rebound comes from ETF funds, with nearly $1 billion inflow into BTC in a single day—the largest since October 2025—indicating institutions are voting with real money.
The ETH range of 2710 to 2760 remains the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. If ETF inflows continue, breaking above 2760 to challenge 2800 is worth watching; otherwise, caution is needed for a potential pullback risk.
#Strategy increased holdings again, the treasury simultaneously added positions #Trump will meet with the Gulf Six countries, a critical juncture for the Iran situation $BTC $ETH $DOGE Everyone is talking about BSC-related tokens being too difficult to play, prone to dilution, insider trading, or having too many Christmas trees. In my opinion, you must avoid tokens that everyone is jumping on, like Niulai and Marscoin this time. Marscoin was listed on spot first, followed by Niulai.
But on X, you can clearly see that Niulai's CX voice is very loud, appearing everywhere, with everyone saying it will definitely pump. However, I chose Marscoin, which not many people talked about, and as a result, Marscoin is now pumping much stronger than Niulai, with its market cap surpassing Niulai by more than 20%.
The main force pumping the price is not doing charity; the goal is to make money. Tokens that retail investors are all on have too much selling pressure, and no one wants to manipulate them. You must choose tokens with light positions and ride with the main force; making some profit is good enough. I'm just a passenger, not the driver, and I know this very well.$BCH surged in one day, CME to launch futures on October 19 — but the last time this happened was with Cardano
(Alternative ① Double catalysts dropping, is this BCH wave a pie or a trap? ② Don’t just look at the gains, this BCH historical comparison chart is more valuable)
The hottest coin yesterday. $BCH surged in a single day, with gains ranging from 19% to 27% depending on data sources and snapshot times (current price reported at $327–336, 7-day gain over 21%).
Two real catalysts, neither baseless:
① CME official announcement: On September 22, CME confirmed it will launch BCH and UNI futures on October 19. Standard contract is 250 BCH (exposure about $69,000), micro contract 25 BCH.
② Grayscale filing: On September 11, submitted revised S-3/A, seeking to convert Bitcoin Cash Trust into a spot ETF, planned to list on NYSE Arca.
But I want to pour cold water, and this cold water is more worth your attention than the gains 👇
Futures launch is never a one-way positive.
· Bitcoin’s first CME futures: launched December 2017, right at the peak of that cycle
· Cardano futures: launched February this year, price still at five-year lows months later
The logic is simple — while the compliance channel opens, the short-selling threshold is also lowered. Banks and asset managers can enter to hedge, which also means shorts get a legitimate ammo depot.
Technical indicators are already warning
Stochastic RSI hit 100, single-day amplitude as high as 22.06%, intraday volatility 7 times the usual. More importantly: daily price remains under the 200-day moving average (about $316) — this is a long-term trend, not something a single big bullish candle can overturn.
Traders Union analyst Anton Kharitonov said: excessive optimism may trigger sharp profit-taking, "beware of sudden reversals in this overheated structure."
What to watch: changes in open interest after October 19. Institutions really building positions → trend continuation; light trading → this wave is just emotional venting.
So here’s the question: do you think derivatives compliance is a plus or minus for BCH? Comment below, I’ll pick some serious replies to discuss further.
#BCH #BitcoinCash #CME #Grayscale #Altcoins
Data sources: CME Group official announcements, Traders Union, various market platforms. As of September 23, for information organization and personal judgment only, not investment advice. $BCH Focus on these few crypto stocks
BSC direction:
① $GENIUS, currently the most complete narrative crypto stock launchpad. Meme paired with tokenized stocks, fees automatically accumulate stocks, and once enough is gathered, you can unwrap into real stocks to vote or even acquire. The story is the most coherent, with GENIUS rising over 40% on its launch day.
② $BNCB, the tokenized version of BNC (Nasdaq BNB Treasury Company) in bStocks. Directly linked to the BNB micro-strategy narrative, it is the most recognizable underlying asset in the BSC crypto stock ecosystem.
Robinhood direction:
③ $PONS, a leading on-chain launchpad, with market cap rising from 20 million to 200 million in August, currently the most trafficked entry point on Robinhood Chain.
④ $DELTA, a liquidity infrastructure protocol that provides concentrated liquidity and market-making depth for all trading pairs. The protocol takes a cut from LP fees for buyback and burn, a straightforward logic: the larger the on-chain crypto stock trading volume, the more fees it earns.
⑤ $GSTOCK, an on-chain target directly related to tokenized stocks, expanding alongside the crypto stock narrative.
The common feature of these targets is: they are not the crypto stocks themselves, but the shovel sellers after crypto stocks start trading.
If crypto stocks 2.0 really take off, funds won’t just buy stock tokens; they will definitely overflow into launchpads, market-making protocols, and liquidity entry points. Many people rush in when they see the top gainer in the 24-hour increase list, which is a typical misconception—coins that surge dramatically in a single day are often bought at the emotional peak. What you should really look at is the relative strength within the same sector: who is increasing volume, who has crossed above the moving averages, and who still has room for a catch-up rally.
$BROCCOLI714 current price 0.02542, 24h +24.67%, trading volume 14.4M USDT, MA5=0.025402 has crossed above MA20=0.0244395, RSI=61.9 not yet overbought, 30 candlesticks amplitude 29.78%. Compared horizontally with the concurrently active $ETH (24h -0.64%, amplitude only 3.32%) and $ARB (24h -2.59%, amplitude 12.14%), BROCCOLI714 clearly has superior volatility and capital attention, making it relatively strong within the sector. But note that the MACD histogram is -7.804e-05, still in a bearish state, indicating that this rally has not yet been fully confirmed by momentum indicators, so chasing the high carries significant risk.
The strategy leans toward buying on a pullback rather than chasing at the current price. Entry reference is 0.0244–0.0250, the support zone between MA20 and MA5, because this area is also close to the dense trading zone above the lower Bollinger Band at 0.0214583, and RSI 61.9 still has room to rise after a pullback.Iran passes a "new law" on the Strait of Hormuz—a 20%+ seizure fine for transiting ships, yet Trump says the momentum is "strong." Today's most contradictory signal: Iran is legislating to tighten strait controls, while Trump says "there is strong momentum to reach an agreement." First, the Iranian parliament has passed new legal provisions for the Strait of Hormuz. Wallstreetcn reported this morning: Iran's parliamentary National Security Committee has approved new legal provisions related to the Strait of Hormuz, with core provisions including: (1) ships violating strait passage regulations will be temporarily detained until the fines are paid, in addition to paying a fine equivalent to 20% of the cargo's value; (2) Iran will establish a dedicated branch of the judiciary to ensure compliance; (3) The Iranian armed forces will report on enforcement every three months. This is not a verbal threat, but a legislative act—meaning Iran is upgrading its control over the Strait of Hormuz from a "military means" to a "legal system." Second, Trump's early morning statements were "outrageously optimistic." Jintou.com captured a series of statements from 3:35 to 3:43 a.m. on Trump: "Iran is on strong momentum to reach an agreement," "We believe the war with Iran may end after the midterm elections or even before then," "I think Iran will do some good things," and "Facilitating the smooth resumption of oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz." These statements stand in stark contrast to the reality of Iran's new law on the strait—collecting "tolls" through legislation while saying "an agreement is almost reached." Third, oil prices are in this contradictory signalIs the current macro setup actually supportive of the speculative rotation into $XRP and $DOGE, or are traders misreading a temporary liquidity flush for a structural trend? The honest answer is that both narratives have merit right now, and the distinction hinges on stablecoin flows rather than headline sentiment. When on-chain stablecoin minting tracks with spot exchange inflows, it creates a thin but genuine supply of dry powder that fuels retail-driven speculative assets. When that minting dToday's most contradictory set of signals: Iran is legislating to tighten control over the strait, while Trump says "there is strong momentum toward reaching an agreement." First, the Iranian parliament has passed new legal provisions for the Strait of Hormuz. Wallstreetcn reported this morning: Iran's parliament's National Security Committee has approved new legal provisions regarding the Strait of Hormuz, with core provisions including: (1) Vessels violating strait passage regulations will not only be fined 20% of the value of the goods but will also be temporarily detained until the fines are paid; (2) Iran will establish a dedicated branch of the judiciary to ensure compliance; (3) The Iranian armed forces will report on enforcement every three months. This is not a verbal threat, but a legislative act—meaning Iran is upgrading its control over the Strait of Hormuz from "military means" to a "legal system." Second, Trump's early morning statements were "outrageously optimistic." Jintou.com's news captured a series of statements from 3:35 to 3:43 a.m.: "Iran is gaining momentum to reach an agreement," "We believe the war with Iran may end after the midterm elections, or possibly before then," "I think Iran will do some good things," and "Facilitating the smooth resumption of oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz." These statements stand in stark contrast to the reality of Iran passing a new law on the strait—legislating a "toll" while saying "an agreement is almost reached." Third, oil prices continued to decline amid these contradictory signals. WTI fell intraday to 89.16 (-2.01%), and Brent dropped to 93.6Two US stock earnings reports are currently testing the strength of this BTC rebound.
BTC surged to $87,000, and what might next impact the crypto space may not be which blockchain upgrades again, but the earnings reports of Costco and Micron.
Costco will announce its results in the early hours of September 25 Beijing time. The market is not only watching how much it sold but is more focused on membership renewal rates and profit margins. If consumers continue to spend, it indicates resilience in the US economy. If membership growth slows, caution is needed as high interest rates may already be suppressing consumption.
Micron will report on October 1 early morning. The market expects its quarterly revenue to exceed $50 billion, but what truly determines the trend is whether AI server demand for memory can continue and how long high gross margins can be maintained.
One report looks at whether ordinary people dare to spend money; the other looks at whether tech companies still dare to invest heavily in AI.
If both consumption and AI demand are strong simultaneously, US stock risk appetite may continue to support BTC$BTC. If both cool down together, this crypto rebound will lose external support.
Of course, these two earnings reports cannot directly decide BTC’s rise or fall, but they reveal whether the market is still willing to pay for high-risk assets.
Costco sells memberships, Micron sells memory, I buy BTC.
If the first two companies perform poorly, expectations can be lowered.
If my returns are poor and I can’t make money, I can only lower my living standards.
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 今天凌晨到早间，三位美联储官员轮番登台，但市场听到的是一团"矛盾信号"。 第一，巴尔金（里士满联储主席）：最耐人寻味的"骑墙派"。 财联社今天凌晨报道，巴尔金在巴尔的摩演讲中说了三句关键的话：（1）"通胀降温不会一蹴而就，供给侧冲击已由'暂时性'演变为持续性压力"；（2）"目前尚不清楚是否需要进一步加息"；（3）"劳动力市场并未过热，甚至并不特别紧张"。这三句话组合在一起的含义是：经济还行、通胀还在、但加不加不知道。 这是典型的"数据依赖"模式——巴尔金今年没有FOMC投票权，但他的措辞代表了美联储内部的"中间派"态度。 第二，柯林斯（波士顿联储主席）：明确的鹰派。 华尔街见闻今早报道，柯林斯表示"通胀维持在2%以上的可能性更高，加息将有助于使通胀回到目标"。这与巴尔金的"骑墙"形成了鲜明对比。同时，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的讲话则聚焦于美债集中清算的技术性议题，未就货币政策发表评论——这本身也是一种信号：美联储"三把手"选择不在这个敏感时刻释放任何方向性信息。 第三，对BTC的含义：美联储内部"分裂"本身就是利好。 如果美联储内部对加息方向无法形成统一共识，那么10月再次加息的概率将维持表面都在涨，真正的问题其实藏在联动里。 BTC、ETH、SOL一起走强，就代表行情稳了吗？ 我一开始也差点被这种"全面开花"的画面骗到。$BTC 站上85K，支撑82K到84K，阻力87K到90K；$ETH 回到2.7K上方，支撑2.65K到2.7K，阻力2.775K到2.825K；$SOL 守住115，支撑110到113，阻力119到122。看起来是三个一起转强，但细看节奏，BTC更像锚，ETH和SOL是跟着情绪往上顶，并不是各自走出独立叙事。 这里容易误判的点是：把联动当成确认。跨市场一起抬头，很多时候只是风险偏好短暂回暖，美元、科技股、宏观预期稍微松一点，加密就同步反弹。问题是，这种联动上涨最怕的不是跌，而是"只有价格在动，承接没跟上"。BTC在87K到90K这一段如果反复冲不上去，ETH靠近2.8K、SOL靠近120时的卖压就会显出来，山寨的追高情绪也会先退。 偏多的路径也很清楚：BTC稳住84K上方，ETH不丢2.7K，SOL守在113以上，那$90K、$3K、$120就会变成市场共同盯着的确认位。一旦BTC先破90K，ETH和SOL的补涨会更顺，风险偏好会从主流币往高bet145 billion in massive volume dumped, why did Bitcoin soften instead?
($BTC shorts liquidated over 1 billion, bulls lining up to push above 86,000 ② The night Bitcoin surged to an eight-month high, I only focused on three numbers)
Overnight $BTC touched $87,381 during the US trading session, an eight-month high. Today in the Asian session, it retreated to around 85,100–86,500.
The strange thing is the volume: 24-hour trading volume broke $145 billion, a record high (Matrixport), nearly 50% higher than the peak in March this year.
Massive volume + stagnation, these three sets of position data explain it 👇
1｜The fuel for this rally is almost burned out
Coinglass: Over the past 24 hours, the entire market liquidated more than $1 billion, with shorts accounting for about $840 million. Glassnode puts it more bluntly—this round mainly came from short liquidations rather than new long positions. Shorts between 82,000–86,000 have been cleared out; mechanical buying is one-off.
2｜But leverage hasn’t retreated; instead, it shifted direction and accumulated
Alphractal: Among open interest contracts, longs account for 71%, shorts only 29%, the biggest imbalance since the peak in October last year. Perpetual open interest surged to nearly $160 billion, the highest since late October last year.
BTC Markets sums it up: Short squeezes usually blow up open interest, but this time they didn’t—positions were immediately replaced, traders are chasing the rally, not deleveraging.
3｜Three walls above, $7.7 billion bet there
Deribit: Open interest at 90K is about $2.7 billion, 95K about $2.7 billion, 100K about $2.3 billion, totaling $7.7 billion. Less than 5% away from 90K.
A closer wall is the 83,000–86,000 supply zone, with about 1.07 million BTC cost-basis pressure here (Glassnode).
The only judge line I watch: 84,000. It’s the breakout level this round; holding it = a regime shift, breaking below = this was just a short squeeze.
Finally, here’s a contradictory data point for you to debate: ETF net inflow on September 21 was $999 million (largest in 11 months), but cumulative inflow by September 18 was only $313 million, less than a tenth of August; Coinbase premium is still −0.028. Is this money allocation or arbitrage?
Do you think 84,000 will hold? Share your position strategy in the comments.
#Bitcoin #BTC #MarketAnalysis #OnChainData #LongShortBattle
Data sources: Coinglass, Glassnode, Deribit, Alphractal, Matrixport, Farside. As of Asian session September 23, for personal review only, not investment advice.