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Morning Review: Bitcoin surges to 87,000, I’m taking another look at these four small coins
At exactly 9 o'clock, the outside is already bright. Bitcoin pulled straight up to 87,000 overnight, and the total crypto market cap has climbed back above 3 trillion. I brewed a cup of tea and reviewed these four small coins again.
$HYPE around 95.42, up 2.48% for the day. Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual exchange, with 97% of protocol revenue used for buybacks. Bitcoin’s rise pulled it up as well; among small coins, it has the strongest support. Morning volume is average; I’m watching the 95 level closely.
$BICO around 0.0224, down 0.40%. Biconomy, focused on account abstraction. While Bitcoin hit 87,000, it’s still in the red. The sector is solid, but no funds are willing to enter, completely missing the rally. No volume in the morning; I’m watching if 0.022 can hold.
$BEAT around 0.0863, down 1.67%. Audiera, a micro-cap speculative coin, dropped 99% from its high, with a market cap of only 25 million and volatility over 100%. Even with Bitcoin at 87,000, it keeps falling—this one’s untouchable. No volume in the morning; I’m eyeing 0.086.
$RE around 0.458, down 1.71%. DeFi insurance small RWA, 71 million market cap, daily volume 5 million, the thinnest liquidity. While Bitcoin is at 87,000, it’s falling instead of rising; when it should move, it stays weak. No volume in the morning; I’m defending the 0.45 line.
Looking at these four, Bitcoin is dancing solo while small coins diverge. The strong ones have buyback support; the weak ones can’t even get a sip. No volume in the morning, so I’m observing first, not taking action The price is hugging the upper band of the Bollinger Bands in the short term with only 0.2% breathing room left. This is not an offensive posture; it's like being pinned on the sidelines, ready to be exchanged out at any moment.
The current situation for $JITOSOL is: a slight 1.97% increase in 24 hours, the short-term RSI has pushed up to 66.4—just a breath away from the overbought zone, while the long-term RSI is only 50.4. In the mid-game phase, both sides have equal forces; whoever advances recklessly will lose first. The short-term Bollinger Band price position is at 87%, with the lower band 1.4% away and the upper band 0.2% away—this is a typical "asymmetric space" scenario, no path upwards but a 1.4% breathing room downwards. The mid-term Bollinger Band is only at 51%, indicating this is just a pawn sprinting through, not a full-scale attack.
So this is not a buy signal; it’s setting up a reverse sacrificial bait to lure the opponent.
My tactical combination is: do not chase the high; wait for it to finish the last move of initiative. Entry is set at 98.38, 1.4% above the current price—letting the opponent move their piece into the square I have calculated. Target 1 is 94.55, a 2.5% retracement; Target 2 is 94.03, a 3.1% retracement. These two points are not arbitrarily drawn but are the inevitable landing spots after the short-term Bollinger Band lower band is breached.
But the real experts look at the endgame ledger: stop loss is set at 108.25, 11.6% above the current price, while the maximum take profit is only 3.1%. Using an 11.6% risk to gain 3.1% is like exchanging a rook for a pawn—this is a complete loss on the force ledger. Therefore, this strategy must be controlled by position size: light positions crossing the river, quick in and out, never lingering in battle. Heavy positions on this combination are like sending yourself into a doomed endgame.
📉 Short:
Entry: 98.38 (current price +1.4%)
Take Profit 1: 94.55 (-2.5%)
Take Profit 2: 94.03 (-3.1%)
Stop Loss: 108.25 (+11.6%)
Endgame judgment: The bulls in the short term have reached a deadlock with no moves left, while the bears only need one step. The real winner is not the one who shows strength in the mid-game but the one who has already calculated twenty moves ahead and knows how many pieces remain in whose hand before making a move. #strategyplaybook#BTC surged to $87000, total crypto market cap returns to 3 trillion #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #Earnings Watcher: Costco Q4 earnings to be announced soon
BTC has been consolidating near 86,000 for almost a day. Last night's bullish candle was strong, but there is no obvious profit-taking visible on the chart, and selling pressure is unusually light. Current quotes: BTC 86434, ETH 2773, SOL 119.
Price is sideways, but capital is not idle. BTC spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $433 million yesterday, ETH attracted $144 million; SOL ETFs accumulated about $60.7 million inflow this week, with $47.6 million contributed in a single day. Meanwhile, yesterday's rally also liquidated about $470 million worth of short positions. Capital is flowing in, shorts are retreating, but price hasn't moved — such divergence usually doesn't last long.
Tonight's outlook:
· BTC: Anchored at 87000. Stabilizing near 86000 allows light long positions; if 86000 breaks, exit and wait. After breaking 87000, focus on how the 86000–87000 range evolves.
· ETH: Relatively resilient. The 2700–2800 range is where orders are willing to wait; breaking 2600 means admitting error and exiting; after breaking 2700, look to 2800, then 2900.
Sideways movement itself is not bad. Capital is quietly warming up, shorts are quietly retreating, what the market lacks is not direction but a trigger point. $BTC $ETH $SOL #CME plans to launch BCH and UNI futures
Just saw: CME plans to launch Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Uniswap (UNI) futures on October 19, including standard and micro contracts, pending regulatory approval.
The key point is not "two more futures," but the signal:
• BCH: A veteran payment coin, entering CME means traditional capital now has a compliant hedging channel
• UNI: DeFi governance token included in regulated derivatives framework, which is more significant than the price increase
• Contract specs: BCH 250/25 coins, UNI 10,000/1,000 coins, allowing retail investors to play Micro contracts
CME has already added ADA / LINK / XLM / AVAX / SUI this year, now adding BCH+UNI shows institutions want not only BTC/ETH but also altcoins on the compliant shelf.
Short-term, don’t rush blindly:
• Watch if BCH can break $300
• If UNI can’t hold $8, the sentiment may easily fade
• Futures launch ≠ immediate surge, but will amplify volatility
My personal judgment:
"CME listing" is becoming a valuation anchor for altcoins; those not listed on CME will be compared against it instead.SanDisk has already risen 644% this year
But Wall Street believes the AI storage rally is not over yet!
$SNDK has risen 644% this year, and many people's first reaction must be: Can it still go higher at such a level?
Rosenblatt just started covering SanDisk, immediately giving a buy rating and a $2400 price target.
The logic is not simply the "AI concept."
AI data centers are raising requirements for NAND capacity, performance, durability, and supply stability. SanDisk and Kioxia jointly developed BiCS8 and BiCS10 NAND, and have already signed multi-year supply agreements with 8 major customers.
More importantly, the price. The market expects the average NAND selling price to rise more than 20% in the third quarter.
So I have been bullish on SanDisk not because of how much it has risen, but because AI is turning storage from a cyclical product back into one of the most critical infrastructures in data centers. $SNDK
Now the stock price has surpassed $1800, and $2400 is becoming Wall Street's new target.
#闪迪纳入标普100，焦点转向AI需求 On September 23, UNI hit $10.85, rising 18% in 24 hours.
The community started celebrating: "The RWA sector leader is taking off."
But don’t get ahead of yourself.
Today, no sugarcoating—let’s get real.
Since the Fee Switch officially launched on V4 on July 27, Uniswap’s average daily protocol revenue surged from $118,000 to $318,000, an increase of about 2.7 times.
Among this, Robinhood Chain single-chain daily contribution is $168,000, accounting for more than half of the protocol’s total chain revenue.
As of September, Uniswap has burned about 112 million UNI, which is 11.2% of the maximum supply.
These numbers are real. Revenue is rising, burning is accelerating, the flywheel is spinning.
But where is this revenue coming from?
Over 99% of Robinhood Chain’s trading volume is driven by meme coin speculation.
FalconX reports that meme coins account for over 80% of decentralized exchange trading volume. After excluding settlement trades like ETH and WETH, meme coins make up nearly 86% of the remaining volume.
On August 30, Robinhood Chain’s application layer revenue was $2.66 million, of which 88% came from GMGN, Pons, and Uniswap—highly concentrated in token issuance and speculative activities.
What does this mean?
The bulk of Uniswap’s fees earned on Robinhood Chain come from meme coin players.
The Pons platform has issued over 250,000 tokens cumulatively, with about 58,000 daily active users. Memecoin.Fun raised $3.5 million to develop similar products.
The token issuance factories are producing frantically, and Uniswap is collecting tolls like crazy.
What does this have to do with the "RWA sector"?
Tokenized stocks: launched, but no one is trading them.
The total value of tokenized stock holdings on Robinhood Chain is about $150 million.
Sounds decent? Consider this:
NVIDIA tokenized stock attracted about 74,000 holders, making it the platform’s most popular asset.
$150 million ÷ 74,000 ≈ $134 per holder on average.
$134. Less than 1,000 RMB.
This is not institutional allocation; it’s retail investors playing around.
Tokenized stocks are currently only available to users in the EU and EEA; US users cannot use them.
The RWA story is sexy, but what’s really running on-chain are the underdogs.
Analogy warning: Solana’s yesterday is Robinhood Chain’s today.
In January 2025, Solana’s meme coin frenzy peaked with weekly revenue hitting $55 million.
Two months later, the meme bubble burst. Solana’s weekly revenue plummeted 93% to $4 million. TVL was halved from $12 billion to $6.4 billion. SOL dropped 58% from $293.
"Meme-driven revenue → revenue supports valuation"—this model has already played out on Solana.
The outcome? Narrative fades, revenue cliffs, price halves.
Robinhood Chain is on the same path now, just with a sexier story—"RWA."
Robinhood Chain’s 90-day gas subsidy ends on September 29.
During the subsidy, user transactions were almost free. This is one of the core reasons for the surge in trading volume.
Once the subsidy stops, transaction costs return to normal levels.
If trading volume halves then and RWA real demand doesn’t pick up—
The 32x revenue multiple won’t hold.
Uniswap charges 0.465% fees per dollar traded here, much higher than its 0.214% rate on other networks. Tokenized stocks trade in Uniswap’s highest fee category, which explains the high fees.
But the problem is: tokenized stock trading only accounts for about 4.1% currently.
96% of the flow is still meme and speculation. You use a 4% story to support 100% valuation?
UNI’s deflationary model is real. The cash flow from the fee switch is real. Robinhood Chain’s traffic is real.
But you must know what you’re buying.
When you pay for the "RWA sector leader" narrative, make sure you’re not buying a "meme chain fee token."
RWA needs institutional allocation, long-term holding, real settlement demand. Not token factories and underdog turnover.
The gas subsidy ends on September 29, the first time to verify the truth.
Look at the data then. Don’t listen to stories.
$UNI $BTC $ZEC #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 #CME plans to launch BCH and UNI futures
CME Group officially announced plans to launch BCH and UNI futures on October 19, including standard contracts and micro contracts, pending regulatory approval. Once the news broke, BCH and UNI quickly surged in the short term, with the market interpreting this as a signal that traditional finance is further embracing alt assets.
CME's continuous expansion of its crypto derivatives product line means that institutions, besides BTC and ETH, will also have compliant channels to hedge and take exposure on BCH and UNI. This is beneficial in the long term for enhancing the market recognition and liquidity of these two tokens.
Personal view:
Short-term benefits are easily realized in advance, so this should be closely watched. The launch of futures not only facilitates institutions to go long but also provides large capital with compliant tools to short. Historically, when CME launches new products, there is often a pattern of "price rising on expectations, then pulling back after launch."
This event represents a step toward industry standardization but does not mean prices will continue to rise unilaterally. Going forward, focus on the progress of regulatory approval and changes in capital flows before and after launch. Do not rely solely on positive news to chase prices.The CLARITY Act, hearing that name again.
The last time it made the news, I actually looked it up. Back then, a bunch of people were shouting "regulatory spring is coming." And then? Nothing, it got stuck in Congress with no progress.
Now the CEO of Moon Inc comes out saying he hopes the next Congress after the midterm elections can pick it back up.
Note the wording—hopes. Not "expected," not "soon," but hopes.
He also casually mentioned that the SEC’s attitude is positive, DTC custody assets can be tokenized, and tokenized stocks are already listed on Nasdaq and NYSE.
Sounds lively. But these are things already implemented, which is a different matter from whether CLARITY will pass.
A stalled bill, can it pass just by changing Congress? Midterm elections change people, not positions.
I’m more inclined to treat it as a long-term story.
If you really ask, will the next Congress sit down and make it their first priority?
#欧洲央行上线代币化结算平台
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ $ZEC $BTC In the past 24 hours, BTC has slightly closed higher, with the price steadily operating around the 86000 level. The cumulative increase over the past four days exceeds 13%, successfully returning to the high range seen at the beginning of the year. Technically, it has firmly stood above the 365-day moving average, which the market interprets as a confirmation signal of a bull market cycle, fully opening the mid-term bullish trend.
However, the biggest feature of today's market: bullish momentum is slowing, volumeless rallies, and high-level divergences appearing.
The previous one-sided short squeeze rally has ended, funds no longer blindly pushing prices up, and profit-taking at high levels is obvious. The market has shifted from a "one-sided rise" to a trend continuation consolidation mode.
Unlike the pure bearish crush of previous days, the past 24 hours have shown a dual liquidation pattern of longs and shorts across the network. High-level chasing bulls and low-level stubborn shorts are both being cut, indicating overheated market leverage sentiment and a strong short-term need for shakeout.
Intraday strong resistance: 87000–87300
Today's two rallies both faced pressure and fell back, marking the strongest short-term bottleneck. A volume breakout is necessary to open the upward space of 89000–90000; volumeless probes are all bull traps.
Intraday consolidation center: 85800–86200
Today's core support range, also the current balance point of long-short contention. The price continues to operate above this range, representing that the bullish strong structure remains intact.
Short-term strong support: 84200–84500
This round broke through the neckline support, also the lifeline of the bullish trend. As long as it does not effectively break down, all pullbacks are healthy shakeouts. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Reward contract bugs, forward hard forks, ghost sell pressure—CORE incident as a final warning for BTCFi
⚠️This article is based solely on publicly available on-chain information and does not constitute any investment advice
The CORE incident on 8.31 is not just a security accident of a single public chain, but a final warning to the entire BTCFi sector. Many have been brainwashed by the grand narrative of "Bitcoin hash power endorsement," mistakenly believing that binding BTC hash power equates to comprehensive security. However, CORE’s triple blow: reward contract vulnerabilities, forward hard fork compromises, and permanently lingering ghost tokens, has exposed the inherent contradictions at the foundation of BTCFi.
1. Reward contract bug: hash power only manages the ledger, it cannot control token issuance logic
The root cause of the incident was not the underlying hash power being compromised, but a logical flaw in the node reward distribution contract. Malicious validator nodes could repeatedly claim block rewards, mining tokens that were originally meant to be released slowly over decades in a short time.
Bitcoin hash power only guarantees that once transactions are on-chain, the ledger is immutable and double-spending is prevented. But how many tokens are issued and when is governed by upper-layer business code; hash power does not perform logical verification. Even with top-tier Bitcoin hash power, a single contract bug can directly break through a carefully designed token release model.
This is a common blind spot in BTCFi projects: they aggressively promote BTC hash power consensus but downplay the audit risks of upper-layer smart contracts and reward mechanisms.
2. Forward hard fork: under a dilemma, only a "stop the bleeding but not cure the root" fix is possible
After the crisis broke out, the project team chose a forward hard fork to patch the reward code and close the loophole of repeated reward claims, allowing the network to continue producing blocks and technically stop the bleeding.
But this was a compromise: no rollback of historical blocks and no destruction of the already circulated 69 million excess tokens.
If they had chosen rollback and destruction, although ghost tokens could be cleared, it would mean the project team had the power to rewrite the on-chain ledger, directly destroying the "immutability" decentralized foundation and potentially causing chain splits; meanwhile, tokens had circulated multiple times, making it impossible to distinguish hacker loot from innocent secondary market buyers, and a blanket destruction would cause huge disputes.
Ultimately, the project preserved the decentralization narrative at the cost of passing the economic loss caused by the bug onto all token holders.
3. Ghost sell pressure: lingering tokens become the root cause of permanent valuation discounts
After the hard fork, 69 million low-cost ghost tokens remain in the circulating market with no lock-up constraints and can be sold on exchanges at any time.
Institutional investors evaluate assets based on predictable, stable token release curves. The timing and scale of these tokens’ sell-offs are completely unpredictable, making the risk unquantifiable and leading institutional risk control to outright reject.
Thus, CORE falls into a unique predicament: the ecosystem has 125 DApps, EVM compatibility, and a large retail base, enabling short-term pulse rallies when sector sentiment arrives; but lacking long-term institutional support, every rally provides a window for ghost tokens to cash out. The market surges quickly but can crash just as fast.
4. Final warning to the BTCFi sector
1. Hash power narrative does not equal a security guarantee. When evaluating BTCFi projects, contract audits, reward logic, token economic models, and token cleanliness must not be deprioritized compared to hash power promotion. Underlying consensus security and upper-layer token issuance security are two completely independent matters.
2. Decentralization is not without cost. Once business code errors occur, under the immutability principle, the economic consequences of bugs must be borne by the entire community. There is no perfect crisis solution; all choices come with huge costs.
3. Ecosystem data can be inflated and should not be judged by surface metrics alone. DApp counts, TVL, and on-chain addresses are often mining incentive-driven superficial data; the ecosystem lacks native revenue and has no fundamental support against large sell pressure.
Marx said one step of practical action is better than a dozen programs. Project announcements can only soothe emotions; there is no substantive resolution for ghost tokens. For BTCFi investors, the biggest reminder from the CORE incident is: do not blindly trust the hash power halo; code and token economics are the true lifelines of a public chain.
Strategic insights
CORE is only suitable for very small position short-term speculative trading on sector pulse rallies, with strict stop-profit and stop-loss settings; long-term heavy positions are strictly prohibited. Monitor large ghost token transfers, BTC staking volume, and BTCFi sector trading volume closely; once large token transfers occur, prioritize reducing positions to avoid risk.
Summary: Reward contract bugs expose upper-layer code risks; forward hard forks can only stop the bleeding but cannot eliminate ghost sell pressure. The CORE incident proves that the greatest risk in the BTCFi sector has never been hash power attacks, but contract vulnerabilities and token economic collapse hidden by narratives.
End-of-article interactive question: For future BTCFi new public chains, how should reward mechanisms be designed to avoid repeating the tragedy of CORE’s ghost tokens?The Nasdaq has hit a new high, has risk appetite come back again?
The Nasdaq reached a historic high, with AI and chips continuing to lead the way, and $AMD even breaking into the trillion-dollar market cap club. Oil prices have fallen, but the 10-year US Treasury yield remains high. This round of gains is clearly not just because "money is cheap"; the market is still competing for the AI growth story.
With US tech stocks so hot, Crypto is also starting to move. BTC has climbed back above $86,000, the US spot BTC ETF saw nearly $1 billion in net inflows in a single day, and the ETH ETF also had about $270 million inflows.
Here’s the issue: US stocks have already announced new highs, but BTC is still catching its breath halfway.
This shows that risk appetite has indeed returned, but the first stop for funds is still assets with earnings support like AI and chips. Crypto now looks more like it’s following with a catch-up rally.
If we really want to stay bullish going forward, we need to see if this wave of funds can spread from US tech stocks to BTC, and then further to ETH and altcoins. Only when funds start looking outward for returns will there truly be a chance."UNI's $10 'Gold Content' Test: $9.24 Million Fees Collected in One Day, Is This Valuation Expensive or Not?"
UNI touched $10.85 today.
Three months ago, this coin was still stuck at $2.31.
It has nearly quadrupled.
But I don't want to talk about candlesticks. I want to do some math with you.
First, look at a set of numbers.
Robinhood Chain's single-day trading volume is $1.95 billion.
Of that, $1.75 billion went through Uniswap pools.
Uniswap on Robinhood Chain collected $9.24 million in fees in 24 hours.
$9.24 million. In one day.
Convert this amount into valuation.
$9.24 million × 365 days = approximately $3.37 billion annualized fees.
But this is the total fees paid by users; the Uniswap protocol only takes a small portion.
After the fee switch was activated in July, the protocol's daily income soared from $118,000 to $318,000.
Annualized at this rate, Uniswap earns about $116 million in protocol revenue per year.
What about UNI's current market cap?
About $5.9 billion.
$5.9 billion ÷ $116 million = about 51 times annualized revenue multiple.
Is 51 times expensive?
Compare it to Visa.
Visa, the global payment monopoly, takes a cut from every card swipe, with a P/E ratio around 31 and a price-to-sales ratio around 14.
A company that has dominated global payments for decades is valued at 31 times earnings.
Uniswap, a decentralized exchange, is valued at 51 times revenue multiple.
Is it expensive? It depends on your perspective.
If you think Uniswap is just "another trading platform," then 51 times is indeed pricey.
But if you understand it as "the settlement layer for all on-chain asset trading" —
Visa handles fiat payments, Uniswap handles tokenized stocks, RWA, stablecoin swaps, and cross-chain asset flows.
The growth trajectories are on completely different scales.
Visa's 14.7% annual growth is considered excellent. Uniswap's revenue tripled in three months.
The only real question worth tracking: can this $116 million be sustained?
On September 29, Robinhood Chain's 90-day gas fee subsidy expires.
Currently, users trade at zero cost.
Once the subsidy ends, trading costs will shift from "free" to "real money."
This is the first real stress test for Uniswap's protocol revenue.
If trading volume halves, fee income halves, burn rate slows, and the flywheel slows down —
the 51 times valuation instantly becomes "ridiculously expensive."
But if trading volume withstands the subsidy withdrawal, it means users aren't here for "free," but for "assets" —
then this flywheel is real.
To be blunt:
UNI rose from $2.31 to $10.85, with 80% of the increase happening after the fee switch was implemented on July 27.
The market isn't speculating on "governance expectations."
The market is pricing "real revenue."
For five years, UNI was criticized as "zero cash flow" and "the most useless governance token."
Now it burns tens of thousands of dollars of UNI daily, using real protocol revenue.
This is not narrative; this is accounting.
So, is 51 times expensive or not?
It depends on whether you believe one thing —
Three years from now, global stocks, bonds, real estate, and private equity will all be traded on-chain as tokens, and the trading layer will be Uniswap.
If you believe it, 51 times is not expensive.
If you don't, 51 times is a bubble.
$BTC $ETH $UNI #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 The current market is a mix of bulls and bears, with institutional buying still fierce, but an undercurrent of old holders cashing out is also stirring. A key battle over $BTC pricing power is unfolding.
📊 Bull camp: Institutions and ecosystem flourishing comprehensively
▶ ETF frenzy: US spot BTC ETFs saw a single-day net inflow of as much as $999 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing over $380 million. Strong inflows in Q3 directly offset 92% of outflows from the first half of the year, showing clear institutional accumulation intent.
▶ Treasury strategy ramp-up: Strategy bought another 950 BTC, pushing total holdings to 846,000 BTC, becoming a steadfast spot lock-up party.
▶ Financial integration: Coinbase launched a 5.1% fixed-rate USDC loan, Moscow Exchange also introduced perpetual contracts, post-quantum security is advancing, and traditional finance is accelerating integration with on-chain ecosystems.
⚠️ Bear resistance: Old holders cashing out and hash rate decline
But potential challenges cannot be ignored. Glassnode shows weekly ETF net outflows of about $300 million; short-term holders sold 47,600 BTC near 88,000 for profit; a 14-year-old wallet liquidated 4,427 BTC (about $342 million); real hash rate has dropped 18.3% from its peak.
(Source: OKX Planet 09/23 09:13)
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Continue holding short positions on $SKHYNIX, watching if the short-term previous low can be broken; if it breaks, it means the mid-downtrend channel will be formed. The upper limit of this rebound's amplitude is already insufficient, so the odds favor short positions.
$SNDK has also reached a short-term resistance area. After breaking through the consolidation box and continuing upward to hit the resistance, a divergence is formed, so the odds for short positions arise here as well.
Yesterday, the Nasdaq index broke to a new high, which will drive some aggressive funds to participate wildly. At this position, be cautious of chasing highs.
There are again a bunch of positive news releases: a six-nation meeting, US-Iran negotiations, which could further support the short-term upward trend and help it form. Let's watch and analyze. News is lagging behind the market, so the short-term operation plan will be adjusted based on the market situation.
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ 100,000 TPS is a long-term capacity, not a promotional figure for tomorrow's mainnet.
Ethereum's roadmap materials describe full Danksharding as pushing overall scalability to over 100,000 transactions per second. But this number depends on multi-phase upgrades, L2 execution, and data availability working together; it is not a single-chain throughput that will directly appear on the block explorer after the next mainnet upgrade.
Treating a long-term goal as a current feature creates false expectations. Ethereum chooses layered scaling: the mainnet provides security and data, while L2 executes a large volume of transactions. End users see the capability of the entire system, not all transactions crammed into one huge block.
The cost of this approach is that the experience can easily become fragmented, with assets and users scattered across different L2s. After capacity increases, interoperability, wallets, and unified settlement must keep pace; otherwise, even with high numbers, usage remains troublesome. Scaling is not just about throughput.
Whether $ETH benefits from the 100,000 TPS target depends on whether these transactions continue to use Ethereum's data, security, and settlement. The long-term figure can guide the way, but real valuation still depends on whether each step creates verifiable demand. Capacity without users is an empty lane; users without settlement connections may not necessarily benefit ETH.
Breaking down overall throughput helps avoid masking liquidity and experience fragmentation with a nice total number.The price of $HYPE has reached around $97, just a step away from $100
Seeing the hype price reminds me of the post about hype on June 5, 2026, where sentiment and capital drove hype to potentially reach $100
Hype has surged significantly, so from the current perspective, it seems "hype" was sold "early"
But personally, I think it was still a relatively good trade to close 🤔 At that time, due to Hayes' public sell-off, it triggered a decline and market downturn; hype far exceeded previous historical highs, all factors for selling
More importantly, $ETH and $BTC are at relatively low levels, and ETH and SOL are more attractive, with "cyclical" and certain characteristics 🤔 So selling "hype" to exchange for liquid capital is a relatively reasonable trade
If funds are willing to flow in later, and hype liquid buyback efforts increase, with more channels for capital inflow, it is expected to promote further hype price increases. If the momentum is strong, selling pressure is low, and buyback and burn continue, triple-digit hype might become the "norm" 🤔
#波动雷达：币种异动观察
@OKX星球 @米妮Minnie_OKX $ADA
Rising about 2.2% in a single day, is ADA catching up or is the trend changing?
While BTC consolidates at a high level, ADA outperforms some major coins, which looks more like capital seeking low-level elasticity. Catch-up rallies can be quick but may not have long-term fundamental support.
If the price raises its lows, and spot trading and on-chain activity increase simultaneously, the trend quality will improve.
If it only rises when major coins pause, and BTC weakens quickly once it pulls back, this is still high Beta rotation. Catch-up rallies can be traded, but sustainability must be verified by new demand.#BTC surged to $87000, and the total crypto market cap returned to 3 trillion
Last night's move was driven by news, not by adding positions.
Once the news broke, the price moved first, sentiment followed, and leverage pushed it further. It looked lively, but spot volume might not be able to keep up, and ETF and treasury buying didn't expand simultaneously. This kind of rally is fast but shallow: front-running before the news lands, and after it lands, the positive effect often fades, leaving those chasing the move as liquidity providers.
Adding positions is most risky at times like this. The rise is sharp, making stop-losses hard to set; when a pullback comes, leverage gets liquidated first. What you think is a chance to get in is actually paying for the news.
Strategy: don't chase overnight sharp rallies, wait for a pullback to confirm; consider scaling in only if key support holds; hold spot positions firmly, keep leverage in check, and continue to avoid data windows. The market is negotiated, and positions must be supported by structure. Without structure, don't act hastily. $MUBARAK current price 0.07586, 24h +62.93%, trading volume 96.2M USDT, 30 K-line amplitude 58.37%; horizontally within the same sector, $TUT 24h +14.86%, trading volume only 10.1M, $XRP 24h +5.44%, amplitude 7.26% — all with bullish moving average alignment (MA5>MA20), MUBARAK's increase and volume are several times that of the others, and the funding rate +0.0375% is also the highest among the three, indicating that leveraged bulls are actively adding positions rather than passively following the rise. This is the strongest relative performer in this round of small-cap sectors.
Technical aspect: MA5=0.076484 crossing above MA20=0.073092 maintaining a golden cross, price standing above the short-term moving average; but MACD histogram -0.001138 is still negative, RSI 63.5 has not entered the overbought zone, indicating a high-level consolidation after a volume breakout rather than exhaustion. Bollinger upper band 0.088299 is the first resistance above, lower band 0.057885 corresponds to the breakout starting point. Fear and Greed Index at 71 is in the greed zone, risk of chasing highs exists, it is advisable to wait for a pullback that does not break the moving average before entering.
The direction is bullish. 最近UNI的走势，让很多人看傻了。 从8月底的3.16美金，一路拉到今天的10.85美金，30天涨幅145%，90天涨幅270%。24小时再拉15%，直接突破前高。一个老牌DeFi蓝筹，怎么突然就变成了本轮行情的领涨龙头？ 很多人只看到涨了，不知道背后真正的逻辑。今天我把UNI这轮上涨拆透，看完你就知道后面该怎么应对。 一、核心催化剂：SEC开了一扇门，Uniswap是唯一持证上岗的人 9月17日，美国SEC发布了一份"创新豁免"声明，建立了一个为期五年的临时监管框架，允许符合条件的代币化美股通过许可AMM（自动做市商）在链上交易。 这句话翻译成人话就是：华尔街的股票，可以合规地搬到区块链上交易了。 这个消息出来之后，UNI直接从6.63拉到8.49，单日涨28%。为什么市场第一反应是买UNI？ 因为Uniswap v4在今年7月就推出了Permissioned Pools（许可池）功能，专门对接合规机构，已经和Superstate、Securitize、Dowgo这些RWA公司合作。SEC这次的框架，本质上就是在给Uniswap v4的许可池模式发"合规通行证"。 注意一个细节： UBTC专治各种不服，别再被K线牵着走
82000这个位置，多少人信誓旦旦地空进去？前几次都在这里摔下来，散户形成了肌肉记忆，以为历史会简单重复。结果呢？主力反手一拉，直接干到87000，空头集体爆仓。这不是行情，这是心理战。
机构深谙人性：先让你尝几次甜头，再把你的“经验”变成陷阱。等你终于相信82000是铁顶，它偏要捅破；等你在75000抄到底部，它偏要砸穿。K线是画给散户看的剧本，每一个“支撑”和“压力”，都可能是引你上钩的饵。
我算看明白了：别在人多的地方开单。下次如果真回调，75000看着像底，但那大概率是给你挖的坑。真正值得分批接多的，反而是70000附近——那个让大多数人绝望、不敢伸手的位置。
这次亏麻了，但也彻底清醒：市场不缺机会，缺的是不跟风的大脑。以后再也不乱开单了，宁可错过，不做错。
$BTC 教会我的，不只是止损，更是别信K线画的“共识”。
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #美联储官员密集发声，加息还要持续多久？ 1 million UNI tokens were withdrawn from Coinbase two hours ago.
At 10.07 each, that's just over ten million dollars.
Just after breaking the year's high, someone moved a large amount out of the exchange in one go.
This scene is very familiar to me.
Every time the price rises and people start shouting "bullish comeback," someone quietly moves their coins.
Do you think they are putting them into a cold wallet for safekeeping?
Or are they moving them out first, waiting for a better price to move them back in?
I don't know.
But to be honest, at this time and volume, this is not something retail investors would do.
What frustrates me is that such moves often speak before the candlestick chart does.
Money is moving, which means someone is already preparing for the next step.
As for where it’s going, keep an eye on whether there are similar withdrawals afterward.
If it’s just this one, it might be a portfolio reshuffle.
If a second or third withdrawal follows, then it gets interesting.
#CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $UNI Brothers really have money: they just spent 10 million USD
Today $UNI broke through $10, hitting a new high for the year.
Just saw an address that directly withdrew 1 million UNI to a wallet. The withdrawal price was $10.07, worth 10.07 million USD.
But what's really interesting is the operation track of this wallet:
One day ago: first withdrew $80 worth of ETH for gas
Then: withdrew 1 UNI as a test
9 hours ago: maybe he forgot, withdrew 10 UNI as another test
3 hours ago: suddenly withdrew 1 million UNI
From testing 1 UNI to entering with 1 million, less than a day passed.
What does this mean?
First, this is a new wallet. No history, no other assets, directly holding 10 million UNI. This kind of "clean" position building usually means someone is making a clear allocation.
Second, tested twice before acting. 1 UNI, 10 UNI, both small probes. After confirming no issues, directly moved 1 million UNI. This is not impulsive, it’s a prepared move.
Third, withdrawn from an exchange. Chips flow from exchange to self-custody, reducing short-term selling pressure.
Combined with UNI’s recent narrative: SEC tokenized stock exemption landing, Uniswap’s permission pool being named, the market is repricing UNI’s role in tokenized securities.
This brother is ready to hold long!The Federal Reserve previously raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but the subsequent rate path was not as hawkish as the market had feared. CryptoTicker believes this actually pushed risk assets higher, with Bitcoin strengthening accordingly; at that time, over $445 million in crypto shorts were liquidated, including more than $230 million in Bitcoin shorts. The most important point here is not "why a rate hike is actually bullish for Bitcoin," but the expectation gap. The market never trades just on the rate hike itself, but on "whether the actual policy is more hawkish or more dovish than previously priced in." When investors had already prepared for a more aggressive tightening path, and the final policy signals were not as strong, risk appetite was restored instead. Bitcoin thus returned above $80,000. But macro factors can only explain why buying began to recover. They cannot explain why BTC was then able to consecutively break through $82,000, $84,000, and even $87,000 within a few hours. What truly caused the market to "accelerate upward" was the derivatives market. #新手必看：这里有你需要的一切 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 $BTC 9.23 Has the bull market arrived?
1. I do not think a new bull market has started at all. If weaker, it is a mid-bear market rebound, ending around 94000; if stronger, it is the last extension of this bull market, similar to the 2021 pattern where 64000 was halved to 30000 before reaching a new high of 69000 again;
2. $BTC 94000-98000 is the watershed. If it can break through 98000, it has the potential to follow the 2021 pattern; if it cannot break through, the rebound is over. Some short positions might be able to be relieved, just wait. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 Previously, funds were all rushing into $BTC, but now things are starting to look a bit different.
On September 22, spot ETFs continued to see inflows:
$BTC +364.4 million
$ETH +71.34 million
$SOL +28.87 million
The cumulative inflows have reached $56.52 billion for BTC, $13.59 billion for ETH, and $1.47 billion for SOL.
The big brother still takes the largest share, but ETH and SOL are clearly starting to attract capital attention as well.
This is actually more interesting than just seeing large inflows into BTC alone.
Because when funds no longer focus on just one direction, the market's trading space begins to slowly open up.
If ETH and SOL can continue to absorb funds, and BTC does not show obvious deceleration, then the market structure might be richer than a simple BTC-only rally.
But we shouldn't be too optimistic here.
The biggest risk in capital rotation is that it looks lively but is actually just short-term switching.
So what I want to watch next is:
Whether BTC is stable, whether ETH can follow, and whether the highly elastic strongman $SOL can hold the funds.
Only if these three signals appear simultaneously will the market really be interesting.
The above is just my personal market record and does not constitute trading advice.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #BTC There are no significant large sell orders above until $90K.
There are also no significant large buy orders below until $81K.
This means that whichever direction it breaks through, it could move very quickly.
If it goes up first, resistance before $90K is light, making acceleration easier. Brothers, recently researching income in the crypto space, I found something outrageous.
The ones that can truly make sustainable profits might not be the coins we watch daily on the K-line, but the underlying crypto infrastructure.
As long as it can continuously generate cash flow, this thing is basically a money printing machine.
The most extreme example is Tether, with $183.3 billion in user funds, heavily allocated to short-term government bonds and reverse repos, earning $491 million directly in one month. This is no longer storytelling; it's real cash flow.
Circle is also strong, making $200 million a month, mainly from government bond interest and cross-chain business.
Hyperliquid earns $60.6 million a month, and even more impressively, about 99% of the fees are used to buy back and burn HYPE.
Pump.fun also makes $54.4 million a month, continuously earning from token issuance fees and matching fees.
These four projects have completely different ways of making money, but they all point to the same thing: cash flow.
In the past, the market liked to hear stories; whoever had the sexiest narrative was easier to follow.
Now more and more people are starting to ask:
Are you actually making money?
So now when I trade coins,
I no longer dare to just look at the K-line.
The K-line tells you the price,
but income tells you whether the project has the ability to sustain itself.
Brothers, when choosing projects,
do you care more about the story or how much money it can make every month?
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ 🚨 ETF funds are redefining the supply and demand structure of the crypto market
On September 22, spot crypto ETFs continued to show net inflows: approximately $364 million for BTC, about $71.34 million for ETH, and around $28.87 million for SOL. The cumulative inflows have reached approximately $56.52 billion, $13.59 billion, and $1.47 billion respectively.
From the capital diffusion from BTC → ETH → SOL, it seems the market focus is gradually extending from a single leading asset to more mainstream assets. If this trend continues, it may indicate that the scope of market capital participation is expanding, and liquidity is showing more obvious diffusion.
Meanwhile, as ETFs continue to absorb spot supply, the real question for the market is: as tradable chips keep decreasing, how much new capital will the next price discovery need to push the market to break through new ranges?
📊 Capital flows are changing, and the market structure deserves ongoing observation.
#BTC #ETH #SOL #CryptoETF #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Solana #CryptoMarketThe three major mainstream coins have shifted from weak recovery to short covering + ETF capital inflow. What needs more caution now is not an immediate major pullback, but the market misinterpreting the short squeeze as a new trend, chasing and adding positions around 86,000, 2,760, and 119.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
BTC: Reclaimed the long-term moving average, the strongest structure repair in nearly 300 days. Supports at 85,200, 84,000, 83,000; resistances at 86,800, 87,400, 88,000-90,000. The original short concentration zone from 83,000-86,000 has turned into short-term support. Medium-term bias is bullish, but the current price is better suited for waiting for a pullback rather than chasing highs.
ETH: On-chain and institutional funds continue to accumulate. Supports at 2,700, 2,640-2,560; resistances at 2,800, 2,890, 3,000. 2,700 is a key dividing line: if held, 2,800-3,000 can still be tested; if broken, look for support around 2,640.
SOL: ETF inflows present, contract positions proportionally high. Supports at 114, 110-107; resistances at 120, 123-125. Maintaining strength above 114; a break below requires caution for a pullback. Leverage heating up faster than spot demand.
Crypto total market cap returns to 3 trillion.
Today's focus: US PMI data, and the meeting window between Trump and Xi Jinping.
Personal opinion, not investment advice.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美国加密税收与BTC储备法案获推进 The altcoin season is getting closer.
The OTHERS/BTC exchange rate has once again reached that long-standing descending trendline, which has been suppressing altcoins since 2022.
Now it’s at a critical point:
Break through and hold → Altcoins will take off directly
Rejected → Continue sideways consolidation at the bottom
Note, the breakout has not happened yet.
But after so many years of sideways movement, once the weekly candle cleanly closes above this trendline, the strength of altcoins will completely reverse.
A breakout wave will directly change the landscape.人是好赌的。 一旦用赌的逻辑来决策，方式就完全不一样 你告诉一个人，订阅费10美金 他会比功能、比竞品，思来想去要不要开通。 但是你告诉他，付100美金进一场抽奖，只要参与就送会员，箱子里有可能是150，也可能是80。 他愿意赌一把。 包在里面的那10美金订阅，眼都不眨。 币圈很多产品，其实都在用这套逻辑。 1/ 我们常常不是拒绝付钱 而是会拒绝确定性支出 赌的钱和正儿八经花的钱是两种账户。 如果把产品费用包进一个赌的入场券，转化逻辑立刻就变了。 大家计算的是能不能赚到5倍，10倍，有亏损风险？那我-20%止损，要抽点水？只要有10倍机会尽管抽。 2/ @UsePaid 你告诉我直接打钱给名人，不存在的。 但是机制换成——发一个币，一定的交易手续费给某个X帐号，这个币叙事好，有高倍可能，那抽就抽呗。 付款这个事情还在，只是被写成了“顺便的、还能参与一场流动” 钱从打赏变成了下注。 名人从收款方，变成了叙事锚点。 3/ 慈善也是，你告诉我这个三天饿九顿的兄弟向Giggle Academy捐点钱，疯了吧。 但是有10倍机会就不一样了。 公益是外壳，投机是引擎，外壳让付款变得正当，引擎让付款FLNC plummeted 15.36% in a single day on September 17, closing at $7.66, and further dropped to $7.27 by September 22. The main reasons are threefold:
① Cliff-like downgrade of earnings guidance: The company sharply lowered its full-year revenue forecast for fiscal 2026 from about $3 billion to about $2.4 billion, a reduction of approximately $600 million; adjusted EBITDA deteriorated drastically from an original loss of about $10 million to a loss of about $200 million, a worsening of $190 million.
② SEC officially intervenes with investigation: The company disclosed that the SEC is investigating its revenue recognition methods and internal control reporting. Regulatory investigation is the "upstream" issue among all problems because it directly determines the credibility of the $2.4 billion revenue figure and $200 million EBITDA data.
③ Delay in capacity ramp-up at Houston factory: Management blamed the delay on the capacity ramp-up at the Houston contract manufacturing plant and did not provide a revised timeline for full production.
---
🏦 Institutional ratings: Intensive downgrades, huge divergence in target prices
After the plunge, multiple institutions acted quickly, with astonishing rating and target price adjustments:
Institution Rating Change New Target Price
Baird Hold → Sell $3.00
RBC Capital Maintain Sector Perform $4.00
Piper Sandler Maintain Underweight $5.00
BNP Paribas Maintain Underperform $5.00
Mizuho Maintain Underperform $6.00
Jefferies Buy → Hold $7.00
Goldman Sachs Buy → Neutral $9.00
J.P. Morgan Maintain Neutral $8.00
Among 22 analysts, the consensus rating is "Hold," with an average target price of about $10.84, but the lowest target price is only $3.00 and the highest is $23, a rare divergence in recent years.
From a technical perspective, the 52-week low is $3.46, which is the most important current psychological and technical support level. The RSI(6) has dropped to 34.00, close to the oversold range, indicating a possibility of a short-term technical rebound. The daily candlestick chart shows short-term support near $7.01.
However, caution is warranted:
· Baird’s target price is exactly set at $3.00, below the 52-week low, implying some institutions believe the stock price may hit new lows
· Jefferies’ report points out that FLNC faces "execution risk and liquidity pressure," and if the Houston factory delay continues and the SEC investigation escalates, the probability of the stock price approaching the $3-4 range will significantly increase
· The current stock price of $7.27 still has about 52% downside to $3.46; given FLNC’s Beta and high volatility characteristics, this is not out of reach
Currently, I personally choose to gradually buy a small amount with low leverage and low position during this divergence. $FLNC Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $1 billion yesterday, and together with Ethereum, the total inflow is nearly $1.3 billion!
This data reveals that the core market driving force has undergone a phase shift:
Previously, the price rose from 76 to around 82, mainly driven by the liquidation of on-exchange derivatives causing a short squeeze, with the price increase triggered by passive buying from short stop-losses being hit.
Looking at last Friday's inflow data, $2 billion has flowed in within just two working days...
This confirms that real off-exchange funds are forcefully pushing up the bottom, not purely leverage-driven. Such inflow volume is quite rare compared to the past two years.
The only concern now is whether the buying pressure will be overextended in the coming days, making a slowdown in inflows more likely, but currently, no top structure has appeared.$BTC This is what a real bull market should look like.
BTC's intraday high reached 87,350, the highest since January 29. It started September with a gain of over 10%, the strongest September since 2012. The trading volume is backed by real money.
On Monday, the US spot BTC ETF saw a single-day net inflow of $999 million, the largest single-day inflow in 2026. IBIT alone took in $381 million, ARKB $289 million, and FBTC $239 million, with these three products accounting for 91% of the day's volume. The cumulative net inflow over three weeks is about $3.8 billion, the strongest three weeks this year. Leverage is also clean, with about $1.03 billion liquidated across the network, of which $840 million were short positions. BTC shorts were liquidated by $536 million, a typical market turnover after short sellers are cleared.
But don't get carried away. On-chain MVRV has just climbed back above the 365-day moving average, a signal that only appeared at the bull market starts in 2019 and 2023. CryptoQuant says holding above 1.62 could see $126,200. However, the Fed just raised rates by 25 basis points, which is macroeconomically unfavorable.
Technically, watch if 86,000 can hold as support; if it holds, challenge 88,000 to 90,000. If it breaks 85,000, don't chase the highs. Going forward, keep an eye on whether ETF inflows continue; if there is a single-day net outflow, the sentiment will change.
The narrative is real, liquidity is strong, but don't fight hard before 90,000 in the short term. During the early morning market refresh, CORE quietly dipped a bit further, and several people in the group popped up asking the same question at the same time. Why are you still not leaving after such a drop? Actually, I've answered this question many times myself. It's not that I don't want to move, it's that after I move, I don't know where to go. Switching positions means afraid of a rebound right after selling, holding tightly and being tormented daily by candlesticks, eventually turning into a strange numbness. On the chain, stake when needed; if it rises, it's luck; if it doesn't, just keep hanging on. It sounds like giving up, but behind it lies a signal many people haven't thought about carefully. The weakness of old narrative coins like CORE isn't just its own problem. It's more like a mirror reflecting the most awkward asset in cross-market interactions. When BTC is stable at a high level, funds prioritize holding onto certainty, while ETH and mainstream Layer 2s absorb the money with narrative, ETF expectations, and institutional stories. Further down is CORE, which has both community obsession and lacks new buying interest. It falls not because something major has happened, but because no one is willing to price it at this level. This is the harshest part of cross-market linkage. When US stock risk appetite rebounds and BTC holds its key range, counterfeit investors should catch their breath. But the reality is, money first flows to the safest place, then to the most imaginative place. The coins in the middle—those that once had stories but no catalyst now—are caught on both sides, unable to enjoy the safe-haven premium or speculative premium. CORE is now caught in this gap. There are also bullish paths. If BTC can continue to hold steady and ETWhen others panic and you dare to go long, you deserve to make money this week.
A week ago, the Fear and Greed Index was stuck at 44, the market was lying in the neutral zone, with widespread selling pressure; no one dared to touch long positions, and short positions kept piling up. On September 22, the index surged to 78, jumping into extreme greed territory. Dogecoin rose 12% in a single day, and $5.66 million worth of short positions were liquidated that day, not a single one left.
The ones who recorded this turnaround in their ledgers were four giant whale wallets. Before the breakout happened, they had already placed $5.59 million in long positions; as the market turned up, unrealized profits followed into their accounts. They didn’t guess the bottom, nor did they wait for confirmation; they just reached out while others were staring blankly at loss screenshots.
The $DOGE line has never been prepared for by bystanders. Those who build positions in the panic zone don’t earn luck, but the segment others dare not catch. The market never gives a heads-up before paying out rewards; it only recognizes positions.$NEAR is currently the weakest among the three, with a short-term bearish bias, but it is close to the lower Bollinger Band support, making it suitable to wait for a rebound rather than chase the downside.
A horizontal comparison makes it very clear: $XRP is up 5.33% in 24h, with MA5 crossing above MA20, RSI at 64.8, making it the only strong bullish arrangement among the three; $PHA, although down 10.83% in 24h, still maintains a bullish moving average structure, with a positive MACD histogram, indicating a sharp drop without breaking support; meanwhile, $NEAR is down 2.91% in 24h, with MA5=4.3606 having crossed below MA20=4.4161, RSI at 48.5 below the bullish-bearish dividing line, and MACD histogram at -0.01881 clearly bearish, making it the only coin among the three with both "moving average + momentum" weakness, confirming relative weakness.
However, bears should not be overly excited. The current price of 4.332 is close to the lower Bollinger Band at 4.2474, with a 30-candle amplitude of 12.53%, indicating a compressed volatility range and limited room for further downside; meanwhile, the funding rate remains at +0.0100%, meaning long positions' cost has not been wiped out, and the fear and greed index at 71 is in the greed zone, with sentiment not yet turning to panic, implying a rebound could happen at any time. The better strategy is to wait for a rebound near the MA5 area around 4.36 before shorting again, rather than chasing the drop at 4.33. While others are still watching whether BTC breaks 87,000, $XRP quietly rose over 20% this week, breaking 1.6.
This coin has won all it could this year: the SEC lawsuit is completely resolved, seven US spot ETFs have been launched one after another, and Ripple has also obtained conditional approval from the National Trust Bank. Institutions are genuinely entering; cumulative XRP ETF inflows have nearly reached 1.7 billion USD.
But Ripple releases 100 million from custody every month, with 200 to 300 million actually entering circulation, at a speed two to three times that of ETF inflows. This Damocles sword is always hanging; don’t forget it just because the price is happily rising.
My own strategy: I hold a base position but won’t fully load up. I won’t chase above 1.5; I’ll wait until the logic of custody selling pressure smooths out. For now, I’m just going along with the market trend; I’ll consider adding positions only after a true breakout above the previous high. After $BTC price broke through the dense short zone of 82,000 to 86,000 USD, liquidations were triggered:
· Liquidation scale: Over 1 billion USD worth of shorts were liquidated within 24 hours; earlier, when breaking through 85,000 USD, the daily short liquidation ratio reached as high as 86% (648 million USD).
· Typical cases: Address 0xc3ed was liquidated 4 times consecutively within 14 hours, losing about 32.55 million USD, and after each liquidation, it re-shorted and was liquidated again. Another address 0xec0b had its 122.88 BTC short position fully liquidated.
· Market maker activity: Wintermute reduced shorts by 738 BTC net during this period, recording a loss of about 2.09 million USD, but after 10:30, it re-added small short positions, indicating ongoing high-frequency exposure adjustments.
Capital pattern: Shorts still slightly dominant
· The overall 24-hour long-short ratio is 0.972, meaning the value of short positions still slightly exceeds that of long positions.
· Mainstream exchanges are consistently bearish: Binance 0.9099, Bybit 0.9857, Hyperliquid 0.994.
After the squeeze, some traders began actively establishing new short positions, betting on a rebound top:
· Analyst Killa plans to establish short positions in the 89,000 to 94,000 USD range, hedging about 50% of BTC exposure, with stop-loss set above 97,000 USD. Recently, the big names in the crypto circle have started collectively turning bullish again. Saylor said "Just buy Bitcoin," CZ posted a cryptic tweet, and Musk shared a Bitcoin-related meme.
Many people saw the big names speaking up and rushed in with full positions. But let me tell you, $BTC is now at 86478, with resistance at 86800 right ahead. Is chasing long at this level really worth the risk-reward?
When I used to lose 200,000 U, I loved following the big names' trade calls. If they said buy, I bought; if they said go all in, I went all in. In the end, they made money and I lost because their cost basis was much lower than mine.
Now I've learned my lesson. I open positions with 5000 U, listen to the big names but trade according to my own system. Short at resistance around 86800, go long if it stabilizes at 86078, set stop losses properly, and don't hold losing positions. The big names' signals are references, not orders.
Remember, trading is your own business; if you lose money, no one will bear it for you. $BTC #6 weeks until the 2026 midterm elections. If we take the closing price on midterm election day as the starting point, how do the returns look for holding the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 for one year?
◦ S&P 500: Since 1950, 19 times up, 0 times down, average gain +15.4%
◦ Nasdaq 100: Since 1985, 10 times up, 0 times down, average gain +33.8%
Why do midterm elections have such magic?
Mainly because before the election, the market discounts uncertainty around taxes, regulation, and control of Congress. After the results, the policy path becomes clearer, risk premiums decline, and valuations begin to recover.
Of course, historical patterns do not guarantee the future, but the repeated validation over several decades at least suggests that the 12 months following midterm elections may be the most important window in the U.S. four-year political cycle for stocks.
Let's also take a look at BTC's situation —
◦ Bitcoin: Since 2009, 4 times up, 0 times down, median gain +68.6%
BTC is a bit more special. The bear markets in the four-year halving cycle coincided with midterm elections: 2018 overlapped with the bear market after the 2017 bull run; 2022 coincided with rate hikes and the bear market bottom amid Luna and FTX crashes. The 2022 election day happened to coincide with the FTX crisis outbreak, causing BTC to drop 10% that day with an unusually low starting point, which further amplified the gains in the following year Above $BTC 86k: Nearly $1 billion inflow in a single day for ETFs, but don't overlook these three contradictory signals
First, the bulls are strong:
On September 21, the US spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $998.95 million in one day, the largest since October 2025, with IBIT at $381 million, ARKB at $289 million, and FBTC at $239 million.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) bought 950 coins in the week of September 20, at an average price of $79,670, holding 846,000 coins.
Bloomberg's Seyffart estimates the average cost for ETF holders is about $81,722 — after the price surpassed this, holders are overall profitable for the first time since January this year, temporarily removing the wall of selling pressure from break-even.
But these three points are rarely mentioned:
1. Short squeeze contribution is too large. About $612 million was liquidated in the past 24 hours, with shorts accounting for 87% (about $535 million). Passive buybacks will be exhausted, and who takes over afterward is the real question.
2. Overheated sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index is at 78, in the "Extreme Greed" zone. At the same level, entering at 50 and entering at 78 have completely different tolerance levels.
3. Net outflow for the entire 2026 remains. Although nearly $1 billion in a single day is impressive, as of September 21, the cumulative net outflow for US spot BTC ETFs in 2026 is still about $450 million. Single-day data is insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.
My approach: no leverage, no chasing breakouts; watch the $81,722 cost line closely, hold if it holds.September Summary:
22 days in September, with 17 days of profit-taking and 5 days of stop-loss so far.
Last night, the US stock market was lively again, but the excitement was theirs, and the divergence is real.
The Nasdaq hit a new all-time high, up 0.45%, the Dow fell 0.36%, and the S&P was basically flat. Among the seven major tech stocks, three rose and four fell. Apple's market cap briefly surpassed $5 trillion intraday but couldn't hold by close. Storage chips showed strength, with SanDisk up 6.81% and Micron up 5.00%.
On the crypto side, BTC is around 86443, up slightly 0.64% in 24 hours; ETH is at 2760, up 0.21%. Gold futures at 4395, Brent crude oil retreated to 99.12.
SanDisk received a buy rating from Rosenblatt with a target price of $2400, a strong boost for the storage sector. Apple's intraday surge to $5 trillion shows investors still have confidence in tech giants, but the close below that level indicates significant profit-taking pressure.
UBS's view is worth noting: the AI theme still has support from application growth, commercialization, and capital expenditure, but the market now demands actual revenue, profit, and cash flow realization; storytelling alone is no longer enough. In the short term, watch tonight's PMI and tomorrow's summit between Trump and Xi Jinping, as these two events will impact interest rates, tech stocks, and risk appetite.
Do you think Apple can hold above $5 trillion? #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $BTC $ETH $ZEC #闪迪纳入标普100，焦点转向AI需求 Unrealized profits are just numbers; only when funds arrive is it a real gain.
Withdrawing funds is often more challenging than opening a position.
I once saw a seasoned trader who wasn’t defeated by the market but got caught offline: he transferred U, and the next day his card was frozen, losing all his money.
Since then, I only believe in one thing: making profits is a skill, but safely securing them is a win.
A few withdrawal rules:
1. Use official channels
Prioritize major exchanges' C2C; fees may not be the lowest, but there’s platform protection and appeal channels.
Private trades risk losing contact if something goes wrong.
2. Choose merchants by data
Check transaction count, registration time, and positive feedback rate; if any are poor, switch.
Avoid new accounts and abnormally high prices.
3. Withdraw large amounts in batches
Don’t withdraw 100,000 U at once; splitting into several transactions is safer and helps explain fund sources.
Inconvenience is a cost; frozen cards are the price.
4. Keep records throughout
Screenshot and save every order in and out.
When the bank asks, provide evidence directly to save time explaining.
A friend who kept records in advance had the bank verify and release funds immediately.
It’s not luck; it’s proactive risk control.
Remember:
Use official channels, withdraw in batches, keep proof. Withdraw when appropriate, don’t rush, don’t gamble privately. #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 First, look at $1INCH, current price 0.10383, slightly up 1.61%. DeFi has actually been quite stable this round, slowly climbing from the 0.06 bottom without any particularly exaggerated violent spikes. RSI is 69.57, not yet extremely overbought, EMA7 (0.099) provides good bottom support. This pattern suits patient holding, but the current price is a bit far from the moving average, so those who haven't entered yet are not advised to chase directly; it's safer to wait for a pullback near 0.10 to stabilize before buying in batches.
Next, $0G, current price 0.2436, up 3.35%. It's in the AI sector, with news pushing an "AI computing power financial layer Compute Finance." The trend is a typical deep drop followed by a rebound, slowly grinding up from 0.13. There is a lot of trapped volume in the 0.35-0.40 range above, and now at 0.24 it's stuck awkwardly in the middle. Those holding should hold along EMA7 (0.226), sell if it breaks down; those without positions should wait and watch, waiting for a breakout above the previous high or a confirmed pullback.
Finally, a key reminder about $ONE, current price 0.0048, plummeted 14.51%. According to news, since the beginning of the month when the mainnet shutdown was announced, it has been continuously crashing. Previously it surged from 0.0005 to 0.006 in a speculative run, but now it has completely returned to its original state. Daily RSI is 80.91, extremely distorted. For coins with fundamental problems like this, never think that a big drop is a "bottom-fishing opportunity." Catching this kind of move is like catching a flying knife; the whales are unloading without limits. Absolutely do not touch it Here's some data for everyone: $BTC current price is 86478, 24-hour high is 86800, low is 85070, with a volatility exceeding 2000 points. But do you know that most of the trading volume within these 2000 points is concentrated in the 600-point range between 86100 and 86700?
What does this mean? It means most people are trading back and forth within this range, chasing highs and cutting losses, paying a lot in fees, but barely making any money. The real winners are those who trade at the edges of the range—shorting near 86800, going long near 86078, and then waiting.
When I used to lose 200,000U, I was one of the majority, busy trading in the middle of the range, effectively working for the exchange. Now I've learned my lesson: I open positions with 5000U only at the edges, set stop losses properly, don't hold losing positions, and firmly avoid the middle range.
Data doesn't lie; what lies is your emotion. $BTC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 This wave of ZEC, the idea from the day before yesterday still stands.
Around 1450, I gave an early signal to go long,
this morning the highest already reached 1652.
Now around 1616.
In two days, from 1450 to 1650.
This is what I have always said:
Hindsight is meaningless.
What really matters is whether you publicly disclosed your position before the market rose.
I mentioned 1450,
I also waited early around 1410–1430.
If the market doesn't reach 1410, then lightly enter at 1450.
Looking back now, isn't position more important than opinion?
I don't need to make up a story after the market moves.
What I thought at the time, what I did at the time, I lay it out directly.
The rest, let the candlesticks speak for themselves.$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？ #ZEC巨鲸3.8万枚空单平仓，亏损超3500万美元 The three major cryptocurrencies have recovered from a slow decline, shifting towards short covering and ETF inflow resonance. The main risk now is not an immediate pullback, but mistaking the short squeeze for a new trend and continuing to chase longs at 86,000, 2,760, and 119.
Today's focus is on the US PMI and the follow-up developments of the Trump-Xi meeting window.
$BTC has reclaimed the long-term moving average, marking the most substantial structural strengthening in nearly 300 days.
Support: 85,200, 84,000, 83,000
Resistance: 86,800, 87,400, 88,000–90,000
View: The 83,000–86,000 range was previously a dense short zone, now turned into short-term support. Medium-term bias is bullish, but better to wait for a pullback rather than chase highs.
$ETH On-chain chips and institutional buying are still consolidating.
Support: 2,700, 2,640–2,560
Resistance: 2,800, 2,890, 3,000
View: 2,700 is a key watershed. Holding above it allows repeated tests of 2,800–3,000; breaking below calls for attention to support near 2,640.
$SOL ETF funds are entering, but contract positions are relatively crowded.
Support: 114, 110–107
Resistance: 120, 123–125
View: Maintaining a strong structure above 114; breaking below risks deeper pullbacks. Leverage heating up faster than spot demand is the main hidden risk.
#BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿
#美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 Iran's Bitcoin settlement dream was shattered by a sanction decree 🧊
The U.S. Treasury has added Iran's BitBank to the sanctions list. The reason is straightforward: assisting the Revolutionary Guard in transferring hundreds of millions of dollars in Bitcoin.
Last week, Iran just started using BTC for foreign trade settlements, and many were shouting "global adoption has arrived." I said then, don't rush; the real issue is whether USDT will be frozen. Now the answer is out—not freezing, but directly sanctioning the channels.
Bessent's remark is worth pondering: "Bitcoin payment channels are not exempt from oversight by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control." To translate: if you use BTC to circumvent, I will sanction those who help you circumvent.
Iran is being forced. The dollar channels are blocked, making it increasingly difficult to receive money and buy goods, so they have to bring BTC to the foreign trade table. But BTC is not an invisibility cloak; its ledger is public. The U.S. can precisely target BitBank, indicating that on-chain tracking has matured enough to follow the trail. This is not settlement freedom; it's a higher-dimensional cat-and-mouse game.
Next, Iran will either switch platforms, go underground, or return to the negotiation table. Meanwhile, Trump is sanctioning exchanges on one hand and negotiating ceasefire terms in the Gulf on the other, playing both hard and soft tactics.
BTC is now at 86,265, and the price hasn't reacted to this. But the real question is not whether it falls today, but whether using BTC for cross-border settlements in the future will be more convenient or more dangerous?
When transparency becomes a weapon, privacy becomes a necessity. ZEC, NEAR, and others might be the next chapter.
$BTC $ETH #BTC冲高$87000，加密总市值重返3万亿 #美伊3小时会谈释放积极信号？