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#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
On September 24, according to TradingBeats monitoring, among today's large volume transactions, 7 addresses completed multi-million dollar long position liquidations, with 6 involving BTC and 1 involving ZEC. The related positions cumulatively closed long trades worth about $356 million today.
After liquidation, 4 addresses showed no further transactions and still hold about $37.73 million USDC in their accounts; the other 3 addresses continued switching between short and long positions or retained other long positions.
I believe that although multiple addresses cashed out profits and exited today, indicating a short-term pullback, I still maintain a bullish market view and do not consider shorting. The bull market will not rise in a straight line; each pullback may provide new entry opportunities. What we need to do is manage positions well, cut losses timely during trading, and maintain good risk control.
$BTC $ETH Fortitude has increased DCG's credit line from $26 million to $50 million, but what the market really needs to focus on is not the expansion of financing, but that about $31 million of this is expected to be issued in the form of ZEC, and the company has clearly stated it will sell these ZEC to pay for the purchase of 9,000 mining machines as well as data center and power facility construction.
This means that ZEC may face a potential institutional-level selling pressure in the future, and the sellers are not retail investors but mining companies that need to continuously liquidate funds for expansion.
This situation has two sides: in the long term, Fortitude increasing investment in mining machines and infrastructure indicates institutions are still investing in the Zcash ecosystem; in the short term, the "take ZEC → sell ZEC → convert to USD for expansion" model may continuously increase market supply.
Therefore, this news should not be simply interpreted as positive. What really needs to be watched is: when will the ZEC corresponding to the $31 million enter the market, and can the market absorb this selling pressure.
If the selling pressure is quickly absorbed, it indicates strong capital absorption capacity; if trading volume is insufficient, ZEC's short-term volatility may significantly increase.
What do you think, is Fortitude paving the way for Zcash's long-term expansion, or will it first put pressure on ZEC's price?$ETH didn't go out at noon, ordered a rice bowl, and while waiting for the delivery, just slumped in the chair zoning out.
The phone lit up, the ETH 100x short position was still held tightly, +279.65%, entered short at 2764, marked at 2687, made this much with 100x.
Actually, no technical skill involved, just didn't move; if the market didn't change, I didn't move either. The delivery guy called saying he's almost here, I said okay, hung up and kept watching the market.
No analysis, no teaching, whether to earn more or less is up to the market. First, eat, then after I'm full, see how it moves, waiting for the next signal. $BTC $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ Polygon基金会CEO宣布，销毁1亿枚$POL （约占总供应1%）的合约已就绪，社区任意一人即可触发，后续还能每季度销毁，POL今年已处通缩状态。 👉🏻短期影响 消息一出，市场情绪立刻被点燃。 销毁直接减少流通量，相当于给代币来了波“供应收缩”，容易带动短线炒作。 尤其社区触发的设计很有参与感，容易形成话题热度。 1%的量不算夸张，短期更多是情绪驱动，价格可能冲一波后回落，千万别指望一夜暴涨。 👉🏻长期影响 这才是重点。 一次性销毁后，还能每季度继续烧基础费用积累的POL，等于把网络使用量直接转化成持续通缩。 加上Polygon今年一直通缩、TPS提升到5000、收入也不错，供应端压力会慢慢减轻。 如果生态继续活跃，需求跟上，通缩叙事就能持续支撑币价。 （由于）年增发还在，销毁力度最终还得看实际网络活跃度。 👉🏻综合判断 整体偏利多。 供应减少是实打实的利好，尤其是社区可触发、可季度执行的机制，让通缩更可持续。 短期情绪利好，长期看则有助于改善代币经济模型。 但也别神话，销毁只是工具，真正决定长期走势的还是生态落地和使用量。 👉🏻新手启示 别一看到“销毁”就上头。 This round, $SOL has outperformed the broader market by a large margin, backed by a calculable multiplier.
Over a 30-day period, SOL's beta against BTC is 1.41, the highest level in the past six months. In mid-August, this figure was 1.04. The correlation between the two in the same window is 0.86. The broader market explains 74% of its intraday volatility.
The amplification is bidirectional. Using a six-month window, on days when the market rises, SOL gains on average 1.42 times; on days when it falls, it drops on average 1.40 times. Shortening to the recent 90 days, the figures are 1.43 and 1.41, almost the same on both sides.
The annualized volatility over the past 30 days is 70.9% for SOL and 43% for BTC, a multiplier of 1.65. Extreme daily amplification is even more intense: on 11 days when the market rose over 3%, SOL averaged a 6.3% gain; on 7 days when it fell over 3%, it averaged a 5.2% loss.
Holding SOL is essentially holding a leveraged exposure to the broader market. When the market rises 1%, SOL on average rises 1.41%. The correlation remains high, and the multiplier continues to increase — it is now being used as an accelerator for the broader market.#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
When BTC and ETH both pull back, ZRO can still rise 11%. This kind of counter-trend strength is worth watching but not worth chasing directly.
OKX morning market shows ZRO around $1.55, up 11.2% in 24 hours, with platform trading volume about $215 million; the 7-day increase is close to 50%. Meanwhile, BTC and ETH are both falling, and funds are clearly actively seeking a few assets that can maintain strength.
The fundamentals are not completely blank. LayerZero recently completed formal verification of Jolt bytecode extension, and Anchorage Digital also chose LayerZero as the stablecoin cross-chain infrastructure. However, these developments can explain the attention but do not mean every buy today can be attributed to the same news.
I am more concerned whether it can hold steady near 1.55, and whether trading volume significantly shrinks when it retests the 1.43–1.45 range. Staying flat at a high level with volume contraction on pullback indicates funds are willing to stay; once volume expands and it falls below 1.40, the counter-trend rise is more likely the last acceleration before crowded trades loosen.
There is another easily overlooked number: even after the rise, ZRO is still about 79.5% below its historical high. Being far from the high does not mean the upside is inherently safe.
$ZRO $BTC $ETH 这个“永生果蝇”，到底是不是真的在链上运行？ 上一篇我说过，我准备把市面上的“永生果蝇”项目一个个拆开。 今天先查第一个。 我找到一个叫 Immortal Fruit Fly 的项目。 先不谈币价，也不谈它有没有投资价值。 我们只问一个问题： 它到底有没有做技术？ 目前公开资料里，有几个地方值得注意： 🧠 1. 它不是只做一个“果蝇头像” 项目 GitHub 公开了完整代码仓库，包括合约、脑模拟器、Web 前端和验证工具。 项目方称，他们使用 FlyWire 果蝇神经连接组数据，并模拟 139,248 个神经元。 ⛓️ 2. 部分神经回路确实尝试放到 EVM 上运行 项目公开的 FlyBrain 合约中，有一个由 155 个真实果蝇神经元组成的方向环路。 项目方称，这部分神经回路可以直接在 EVM 中运行，而不是单纯把一张图片或一个结果放到链上。 这个区别其实很重要。 因为： “链上有一个果蝇 NFT” 和 “果蝇神经状态参与链上计算” 完全是两回事。 💾 3. 它还在做“状态继承” 项目方设计的机制是： 果蝇运行 → 保存脑状态 → 计算 hash → 写入链上 → 更换身体 →$USELESS 10x short, +149.55%.
Opened at 0.35185, mark at 0.29925. Nearly 15% drop, 10x leverage amplified to 149%.
After stagnation at a high level, it turned down, structure is clear, position followed. No analysis, no prediction, just execution.
Unrealized profit is the result, not the process. The position is still open, waiting for the next move. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ The first time I bought $BTC was last winter at midnight
Hiding under the covers with my fingers freezing and trembling
After buying, I stuffed my phone under the pillow
My heart was pounding like a drum
The next morning I woke up to see it had risen a little
So happy I ate two extra buns for breakfast
Later it dropped back and I cursed myself for being impulsive
During that time at work, I was often distracted
Secretly checking the phone during meetings
When the boss asked what I was doing
I said checking the time
But I was actually watching the market
In between, I tried $ETH
Heard people say it’s stable
I never really understood where the stability was
The sideways market was the most frustrating
Like water that never boils
Selling felt like missing out
Holding felt like risking a drop
Some in the group shouted trade signals
I followed a couple of times
Once I bought high
Once I sold low
But I paid fees diligently
Eventually, I got lazy and stopped following
There was also $SOL that stuck in my mind
It surged so fast it was scary
And the pullback came without warning
That loss really hurt
Lying in bed staring at the ceiling for a long time
The next day I turned off leverage
Only playing with spare money
No borrowing, no all-in
Smaller positions
Sleeping more peacefully
Now when others shout trade signals, I just watch
When they show profits, I just smile
Use cold wallets when needed
Write down seed phrases on paper and hide them well
When family asks if I made money
I just say I’m still learning
Don’t get cocky when winning
Don’t borrow when losing
No more watching the market every day
Just dollar-cost average a bit and leave it there
Read the news when I have time
If not, just pretend to be dead
There are no wizards in this field
Surviving is already good
Holding on is a skill
Being empty-handed is also a skill
Don’t always think about turning it all around in one shot
First think about not getting wiped out in one wave
Money lost is tuition
Money earned is not wasted recklessly
That’s roughly the lesson I’ve learned #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ Multicoin再次转入HYPE，两个交易情景要盯紧 9月24日，Lookonchain监测到，Multicoin Capital再次向Coinbase Prime存入13.03万枚HYPE，价值约1215万美元。自7月28日以来，累计转入约423万枚HYPE，总价值约2.85亿美元。
这条消息不能简单理解成“转入=卖出”，但持续向交易平台转入，意味着潜在可卖筹码增加，短线必须防范兑现压力。
接下来我更关注两个情景，触发条件要明确：
**情景一：兑现压力释放。**触发条件是：①后续继续出现千万美元级别HYPE转入交易平台；②HYPE反弹无法突破前高/关键压力位；③成交量放大但价格不涨，甚至出现放量下跌；④最终有效跌破短线支撑。满足“转入增加+价格走弱+放量破位”，才更容易确认卖压正在释放。
**情景二：强势承接。**触发条件是：①继续出现大额转入，但HYPE没有明显下跌；②回踩关键支撑后快速收回；③现货成交量放大并突破短线压力位；④突破后能够站稳，而不是冲高回落。满足“持续转入+价格抗跌+放量突破”，说明市场承接资金正在消化潜在卖压。
个人判断：**钱包转账只是预警，价格才是确认。*$ZEC Trading Strategy: Short on the Rebound
【Strategy Entry Points】
· Entry: Short when the rebound is resisted in the 1535-1550 range (near MA10 resistance and the downtrend line)
· Target: First watch the previous low at 1480; if broken effectively, hold until 1440
· Stop Loss: Set at 1570 (above MA20)
【Core Data and Rationale】
1. Extreme chip distortion: nominal long-short ratio as high as 936% (longs 402 million U, shorts only 42 million U); average long price 1045, unrealized profit 124 million U (profit ratio 58.78%). Long positions are extremely crowded and vulnerable to being harvested.
2. Technical breakdown on the chart: 1-hour level waterfall drop from 1680, MA20 (1570) and MA10 (1518) formed a death cross diverging downward. Currently, around 1519, volume contracts and consolidates sideways, identified as a bearish continuation trap.
3. Resistance and risk-reward ratio: dense trapped positions exist above 1535-1550; funding rate remains positive (0.0100%), longs have not been cleared. Shorting on the rebound offers a better risk-reward than betting on a reversal.
Summary: Long positions are crowded and technicals have broken down. Wait for the rebound to the resistance zone to set up short positions and patiently await profit realization.Bull market signal for the 5th time, 3.5 million $BTC still sleeping
A friend new to the circle asked me if this signal is solid.
What he said: Analysts say the short-term holders' cost has crossed above the long-term holders' cost, momentum has changed.
Why it matters: This has happened 5 times in history, sounds like a bull market seal.
But what I think: Those 3.5 million coins have been lying dormant for 10 years, and each month adds another 8,000 to 30,000 coins.
This is not a bull market confirmation, this is old coins basically not recognizing this price.
The signal is for newcomers, old coins vote with their feet.
As someone holding long-term, I only dare to watch, not chase.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 #CME拟推BCH与UNI期货 $BTC #BTC pullback after a surge, has market rotation begun?
After BTC surged and then pulled back, there's a signal to watch out for — the market might be shifting gears.
According to the latest Glassnode data, the market cycle signal has turned to "altcoins taking the lead." In the past week, 72.5% of tracked assets outperformed BTC. NEAR, UNI, ZEC have all clearly strengthened recently, some with their own positive catalysts. Meme coins like PEPE, WIF, DOGE are also rallying together.
So what does this mean for the crypto space? I'll break it down in two layers.
First, money is spreading out. After BTC surged to 87,000 and then pulled back, the money hasn't left; it's rotating into other coins. This is a common signal that market sentiment has recovered to a certain stage. Before, BTC was carrying the market alone, but now other coins can keep up, showing that investors are getting bolder.
Second, whether this spread can sustain is still uncertain. The 72.5% ratio is high, but whether it can hold depends on BTC's performance. If BTC continues to pull back, altcoins won't hold up either. If BTC stabilizes around 82,000 to 83,000, then the rotation rally has a chance to continue, and an altcoin season might really be coming.
Let's watch patiently. My current view is that a pullback is likely, with a higher chance of going down, but some stability is possible. Opportunities are always there; just seize one. $BTC $ETH $ZAMA's trend can't be said to just resemble ONE's; it might as well be called exactly the same.
Whether it can avoid replicating ONE's trend depends on these next couple of days. Previously, when ONE was at 0.0025, I couldn't hold and had to close my position. Looking back now, I really regret it. If I had held on, I wouldn't have lost hundreds of points and might have even gained two or three hundred points. I was too cowardly.
So, this $ZAMA position must be held. The opening price of 0.83 is much better than ONE's position. If it rises again, I'm considering adding more short positions. I have a strong feeling ZAMA will have a big drop.
Because ZAMA is riding the hype of the privacy coin sector, if the leader ZEC experiences a major pullback, it's impossible for ZAMA not to fall. Now it depends on whether ZEC gives me that opportunity.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 A surge of 3.26% within one hour, but the current price has retreated back near the low point of that hour. According to OKX public data at 13:58 (UTC+8), $CVC spot is quoted at 0.03068, up 6.94% in 24 hours, with a range of 0.02681—0.03400.
The last full hour rose from 0.03098 to 0.03199, with a trading volume of about 194,400 USDT, an increase of 136.88% compared to the previous period; however, the current price is already below the close of that hour and close to the 0.03069 low. Volume and price expanded simultaneously, but the follow-through after the breakout has not yet been confirmed.
OKX currently only has CVC spot, no CVC-USDT perpetual contracts, so the funding and open interest logic from other platforms cannot be directly applied. Only if it reclaims 0.03199 and breaks through 0.03400 with volume can continuation be justified; if 0.03069 is breached and trading volume continues to increase, be cautious of a pullback to the 0.02681 range after the surge, and do not chase the rally. I believe you understand that the position of the stop loss is crucial. Using a looser stop loss will help you achieve trading success faster than stubbornly using a tight stop loss.
Why you should set a looser stop loss and its important significance. I have noticed a common phenomenon: many traders can correctly judge the market direction but are always stopped out too early, sometimes just before the market is about to move in the direction they predicted. Does this feel familiar? The root cause of this tragedy is that traders set their stop losses too tight, too close to the current price. The conclusion is: when it comes to stop losses, the "magnitude" of the stop loss is critical.
It should be noted: tight stop losses do have applicable scenarios in certain trading styles and specific market environments. But focusing on daily-level trading with holding periods of several days to weeks, the first thing to understand is that the market has inherent average volatility ranges daily and weekly. This volatility can be intuitively reflected by the ATR (Average True Range) indicator. When we trade on daily and weekly charts, we must understand the normal market volatility range, and the core purpose is to set the stop loss outside this volatility range.
If the stop loss falls within the normal volatility range, it is meaningless — this means that the market's normal daily fluctuations alone are enough to stop you out.
$BTC $ETH $ZEC #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ #财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布 📰 [Analyst: Bitcoin Market Momentum Has Shifted, Historical 5th Bull Market Confirmation Signal Appears]
BlockBeats reports that on September 24, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that the cost basis of Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) has confirmed crossing above the active long-term holders (LTH) cost basis, indicating a shift in market momentum. Based on this, he judges that the Bitcoin bull market is confirmed. This is the 5th time in history this signal has appeared, but he emphasizes that the indicator may still produce false signals. "Active LTH" is defined as long-term held supply that has moved at least once in the past 7 years, to exclude long-term dormant or illiquid BTC. Currently, over 3.5 million BTC held for more than 10 years remain dormant, representing this portion of supply...
Veteran players will be moved by seeing this on-chain cost basis crossover indicator for the fifth time, but its nature is a lagging confirmation; by the time it lights up, the market has often already moved significantly. What really needs attention is the speed of new money entering and the spot market's absorption capacity. Don't treat a single indicator as gospel. How is the sentiment on your side—adding positions or waiting? 👇👇👇
$BTC $ETH $XAU After losses, stubbornly holding without stop-loss is a huge pitfall that most traders fall into. In the early stages of losses, they always think the market will quickly reverse, unwilling to admit their judgment was wrong, constantly comforting themselves that it's just a temporary unrealized loss, reluctant to cut losses. Small losses gradually amplify, eventually evolving from minor drawdowns into large losses that severely damage the account. By the time it becomes unbearable, the losses are irreparable. Later, I strictly set a rule for myself: unconditionally exit when reaching the stop-loss point, without any illusions. Stop-loss is not admitting defeat; it is a tool to control losses. Admit judgment errors, exit timely, preserve capital, and wait for the next opportunity. Accept failure in trading and admit mistakes promptly to prevent small errors from turning into catastrophic disasters.The first time I bought $BTC was on a summer night during a power outage
My phone had only 10% battery left
I squatted in the hallway and placed the order
My palms were sweaty after buying
When the power came back, I didn’t dare to check
I only opened the app the next morning
It had risen a little
I smiled like I had found money
When it dropped back, I scolded myself for acting too fast
During that time, I couldn’t even enjoy my meals
Secretly checking my phone at work
Locking the screen quickly when the boss passed by
Later I slowly understood
The most tormenting thing about this isn’t the ups and downs
It’s that you always want to get rich immediately
In between, I held some $ETH
Heard people say it’s a bit more stable
I never really understood where the stability was
The sideways trading period was the hardest
Like water in a pot that never boils
Selling was scary because of missing out
Holding was scary because of falling
People in the group shouted directions
I followed a couple of times
Once bought high, once sold low
Paid fees quite frequently
Later I got lazy to follow anymore
There’s also $SOL that I still remember
It surged so fast it was scary
The pullbacks didn’t even warn
That loss hurt my heart
Lying in bed at night staring at the ceiling
Thinking for a long time
The next day I turned off leverage
Only played with spare money
No borrowing, no all-in
Smaller positions
Sleeping more peacefully
Now when others shout orders, I just watch
When they show off profits, I just smile
Use cold wallets when needed
Write down seed phrases on paper and hide them well
When family asks if I made money
I just say I’m still learning
Don’t get cocky when winning
Don’t borrow when losing
No more staring at the market every day
Just dollar-cost average and leave it there
Check the news when I have time
Pretend to be dead when I don’t
There are no geniuses in this field
Surviving is already good
Holding on is a skill
Being empty-handed is also a skill
Don’t always think about turning it all around in one shot
First think about not getting wiped out in one wave
Consider lost money as tuition
Don’t spend the profits recklessly
That’s roughly the lesson I’ve learned #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？
#财报观察员：好市多Q4财报即将公布
#美债收益率全面走高，高利率为何难降？ After consecutive $PUMP profits, people are most prone to becoming arrogant. After several successful trades in a row, an illusion arises that you have already seen through the market and your judgments won’t be wrong, unconsciously increasing position sizes and relaxing risk control standards. I went through this phase; after several weeks of consecutive profits, my mindset drifted, I underestimated risks, and stopped strictly setting stop losses. The market quickly taught me a lesson—a big loss wiped out all previous gains. This experience made me firmly remember that short-term profits are just a resonance of luck and market conditions, and do not represent invincible personal ability. No matter how much you earn, risk control standards must not be lowered even a bit. Stay humble and respect the market. The market is always more complex than we imagine, and vigilance can never be relaxed at any time.The manipulator can't push it up anymore, right?
You can't blow me up.
If you have the ability, keep pushing.
I just don't believe that after $ETH drops from 2788 and rebounds,
you can still wipe out my forced liquidation line at 2825 in one go.
—
$ETH dropped from 2788 to 2633 in one hour,
and the rebound never firmly held above 2700.
Short-term indeed shows signs of weak upward momentum,
but the weekly structure hasn't completely turned bearish yet.
The 2775 to 2825 range remains a key resistance zone,
and your forced liquidation price is exactly at 2825.
This 100x short position is really not at a point to be stubborn.
—
$ZEC has still risen 10.2% over seven days,
with a trading volume of 1.77 billion USD,
indicating that funds haven't fully exited.
If 1500 holds, a further rebound is possible.
Look first to 1600 and 1650 above.
If it breaks below 1500, then watch 1450.
Chasing shorts at this level is easy to get cut repeatedly.
—
$OKB has still risen 3.7% over seven days,
total supply is only 21 million tokens.
Around 115 is the first support.
Only by reclaiming 125 can it have a chance to push to 130.
I still prefer holding this coin in spot.
—
ETH really can't push up in the short term.
If it can't hold 2700, expect further pullbacks.
But if it reclaims 2720 firmly, beware of a second short squeeze.
The manipulator can't push it up doesn't mean they can't spike it once.
#BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？
#美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ $BTC fell 2.76% intraday to 84,085.6. I judge that the downward momentum has peaked, and a short-term rebound is underway. The liquidation structure in the last hour is key: 25 short positions were forcibly closed, while only 1 long position was closed. The price is not far from the intraday low, yet it is the shorts who were forced out. This indicates that new short leverage following the downtrend is being squeezed out, and the bulls have not conceded. The fuel for the decline has shifted from the bulls to the bears. The options side aligns with this: the put/call volume ratio of 0.65 is significantly lower than the put/call open interest ratio of 0.84, showing that new funds are biased toward bullishness and are not adding protection. DVOL at 36.9 indicates the options market is not pricing in a panic-driven continued drop. Funding rates have been close to zero for three consecutive periods, indicating overall leverage is not crowded; this is just background information. I expect the rebound to first return to the upper half of the intraday range. The condition to turn bearish is if the price effectively breaks below the intraday low of 83,450.1, at which point the rebound judgment is invalidated and the outlook turns bearish. 🔥🔥🔥 "Survival Guide for Pullbacks: From Dreams of Getting Rich to Taking a Deep Breath"
$BTC calmly holds at 84,000, $ETH adds some at 2,680, $DOGE at 0.09... just pretend you didn’t see it. The market actually cooperated with a broad small dip: BTC down about 2.1%—2.9%, ETH down about 2.4%—2.95%, DOGE partially down 7%—9%, with over $500 million liquidated in contracts, bulls taking the brunt, like a gym full of people pulling muscles together.
The Fear & Greed Index still sits at 71 "Greed," which is very crypto: prices have already fallen, but sentiment is still shouting "buy the dip, bulls will return." The 5-year US Treasury yield broke 5%, the chance of rate hikes is priced at 70%, and with risk-free rates rising, BTC as an "interest-free old-timer" naturally gets criticized first for opportunity cost. ETH, as a high-volatility player, gets trimmed by institutions first when rates tighten; DOGE is even more extreme, a sentiment coin with leverage, like bungee jumping without a cord.
My current trading philosophy is simple: treat BTC as stored gold beans, don’t rant about it on social media when it drops; treat ETH as a compute power ticket, watch gas fees and ecosystem on pullbacks, don’t bet your life on a single day; put only pocket money into DOGE, treat gains as jokes and losses as memes. This pullback teaches us—don’t argue with macro, don’t compete over liquidations, don’t pretend to be Buffett at greed level 71. Close the app, have a drink, come back to brag at 87,000, and your heart will live at least ten years longer.After $ETH ETH's rapid drop yesterday, it is currently in a weak rebound phase. However, as long as spot funds continue to support, this round of decline can temporarily be defined as a leverage cleanup following the main rise, rather than a mid-term trend reversal. That said, the 1-hour MACD remains below the zero line with moderate rebound volume, so short-term recovery is not yet complete.
The current key levels to watch are 2663—2690—2725. 2663 is the first support, 2690 has already completed a support-resistance flip; if volume increases and it holds above 2690, the rebound could further target 2725. 2725 is the critical neckline resistance after this decline; only by firmly holding above 2725 can the short-term structure truly strengthen again, with subsequent targets at 2760 and 2806.
Conversely, if 2690—2725 continues to face pressure and forms a 1-hour stagnation, especially if it breaks below 2663 again, beware of a second round of leverage cleanup. The downside first targets 2649, with core defense around 2608. If 2608 shows a clear stop to the decline on 15-minute/1-hour charts and volume contracts before expanding again, it can be considered a position to re-enter some long orders; but if 2608 is effectively broken and the rebound fails to recover, this adjustment is no longer just a normal leverage cleanup and requires lowering the expectation for the continuation of the main rise.
Summary: Hold 2663 to target 2690→2725; holding above 2725 means bulls regain control. Failure to break 2725 and a drop below 2663 warns of a second rapid cleanup, with focus on waiting for support at 2608.Institutional coin deposits do not mean they are going to sell
Multicoin has deposited another 130,000 $HYPE tokens to a certain platform.
Worth 12.15 million USD.
Where did this money come from:
Since July 28, it has deposited a total of 4.23 million tokens.
Adding up to 285 million USD, done in batches.
How is this number calculated:
4.23 million tokens divided by 130,000 tokens, about 32 times.
They move out week by week, not dumping all at once.
Depositing to the platform just means putting the coins there.
Whether they place orders or sell, the data does not show.
Seeing large transfers in and assuming a drop is the most common misinterpretation by outsiders.
If they really act, it’s also in batches, not a single dump.
#Strategy再度增持，财库同步加仓 $HYPE $SKHYNIX 50x short, +131.24%.
To be honest, shorting at 1367.7 was a bit lucky, now marked at 1331.8, it looks like a big profit, but with 50x leverage, every minute and second is nerve-wracking.
Still holding, no showing off or teaching, this money is all virtual until it's cashed out. Continuing to watch the market. $BTC $ETH #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ BTC Market Analysis: $BTC ｜9.24
The 4-hour chart still shows a downtrend structure, with a double top near the previous high; the 1-hour chart has returned to the lower edge of the range. Around 84,000 is the short-term long defense zone. For now, Lao Bai is watching for a rebound within the range; if 83,500 is lost, this judgment will be withdrawn.
Trading Strategy:
Long positions near 84,000: continue holding, stop loss at 83,458. On the rebound, first observe the performance at the upper edge of the range; do not treat the short-term recovery as a trend reversal.
Right-side short positions: short if the 1-hour breaks below 83,500 and fails to recover on the rebound.
Stop loss: 84,500
Target: around 82,200
Left-side long positions: after probing 81,500–82,200, observe for a stop in the decline before entering again.
Stop loss: 80,788
Target: 83,000–83,500
The 4-hour direction has not yet turned strong. Especially when entering longs near 82,200, the risk-reward ratio to the first target is low; if the position is not good, just give up. #BTC冲高回落，市场轮动开始了吗？ #美伊恢复接触，风险溢价会降吗？ A day when the entire market saw $545 million liquidations and altcoins all dropped 3%, $ARB couldn't escape either, only falling 1.29%. It looks resilient, but that's actually because there wasn't much room left to fall. This coin has dropped 49.89% over 90 days, but gained 6.31% in the last 7 days, lying low at the bottom waiting for a wind to come.
The chain's market cap is $1.7B, with 24-hour trading volume at $470M. The numbers aren't bad, but no one is giving it a narrative. The 123.5M token unlock on September 23 (1.24% circulating) has already landed, and the market remained calm, indicating selling pressure was anticipated and absorbed early.
Robinhood Orbit's $3.2M daily trading volume is the only card ARB holds, but ARB still hasn't captured revenue—money goes into the treasury, not the holders' wallets. This is a longstanding issue shared with UNI.
ARB is spending time at the low level without independent catalysts. The unlock is over, and in the short term, there are neither risks nor bright spots. $BTC ｜$ETH ｜$ZEC: When the tide recedes, the narrative is the reef
$BTC slipped from 87.4K to 84.37K, $ETH retreated from 2.81K to 2.68K. $ZEC fell even more sharply—dropping from 1680 USD straight down to 1497 USD, evaporating 8.11% in a single day.
This is not a collapse, but a reclaiming of pricing power. The market had previously run too fast, stuffing too many expectations into the price; now it is simply paying back borrowed time.
Looking at the longer term: $BTC still holds a 41.09% gain over three months, $ETH maintains 71.13%, and $ZEC has recorded an astonishing 259.37% increase. The pullback only shaved off the thinnest layer of the bubble.
The real question has never been "where is the bottom," but rather: when unrealized gains are extracted, who still has a reason not to sell?
$BTC’s answer is written on the balance sheet—it is the asset institutions cannot bypass. $ETH’s answer lies in its ecosystem—on-chain activity, staking yields, and Layer2 cash flows form a self-reinforcing cycle. And $ZEC’s 259% looks more like an emotional pulse of a privacy narrative: the biggest gainer, also the most dependent on the freshness of its story.
Profit-taking is a touchstone. It does not create value, it only exposes value. When the tide recedes, the naked swimmers are revealed, but the reef remains.
What the market takes back is the reward; what remains is the true weight of the narrative.Greed Index 71, COTI volatility 16% but only negative funding rate — is this rebound an opportunity or a trap?
$COTI current price 0.01612, 24h up 3.80%, but MA5 is still below MA20, MACD histogram is negative, RSI only 47.1, typical weak rebound structure. What is truly worrisome is the volatility: 30 candlesticks amplitude about 16.25%, combined with Greed Index 71 in the greed zone, meaning long buyers are crowded and pullbacks will be fast and deep. Funding rate -0.0417% indicates shorts are paying fees, there is short squeeze momentum in the short term, but this is not evidence of a trend reversal.
Positioning advice: single trade risk exposure no more than 2% of total capital, stop loss must be placed below Bollinger lower band 0.01573, because breaking below confirms rebound failure.
Direction: light long position (rebound play, not trend long).
Entry: 0.01590–0.01615 (close to current price and upper edge of Bollinger lower band, avoid chasing highs).
Take profit 1: 0.01658 (near MA20, moving average resistance).
Take profit 2: 0.01742 (Bollinger upper band, if RSI rises simultaneously then scale out).
Stop loss: 0.01568 (break below Bollinger lower band, structure invalid).
Exit signals: price breaks below 0.01573 and MACD histogram continues to expand negative, or RSI falls back below 40, exit unconditionally.Bitcoin ETFs added $999 million in one day.
That's close to 12,000 BTC. But ETF demand is only part of what’s driving this move.
Here’s what happened:
Spot demand was strong. Shorts were squeezed, with $345 million worth of Bitcoin short positions liquidated in a single day, further pushing the price up.
And there was little resistance along the way. URPD shows almost no historical activity between $80,000 and $85,000, allowing Bitcoin to break through quickly. Now, Bitcoin is testing the next major resistance zone: $85,000 to $95,000.
The result: Bitcoin surged from $81,146 to $86,600, a single-day gain of +6.7%.
Spot ETF demand + short liquidations + very low historical supply.
Now the focus shifts higher. BTC needs continued ETF inflows to break through this area. But the Coinbase premium gap has turned negative, indicating that US spot demand has cooled off. All eyes are on the US trading session to see if ETFs can deliver another strong trading day. $BTC $ETH $SOL 据报道，他增加了对 $MU、$NBIS、SOXX ETF 以及 $PLTR 的空头押注。与此同时，Nasdaq-100 正处于历史高位附近。 核心逻辑很明确：Burry 正在押注这一轮AI与存储芯片热潮可能进入降温阶段，尤其担心内存芯片景气度已经被市场过度定价。 📌 高位不代表马上反转，但当指数创新高、部分芯片股估值同步拉升时，波动风险也在快速累积。 接下来重点观察：芯片股成交量、AI资本开支预期，以及 $MU 的业绩与指引能否继续支撑当前估值。 #MichaelBurry #Micron #MU #SOXX #Palantir #AI芯片 #半导体The stagnation indicated yesterday quickly turned into a leverage cleanup, with $BTC's trend sharply reversing downward, currently priced at 84,466.90.
This correction is essentially a futures long liquidation. Statistics show long liquidations reached $280 million, open interest contracts shrank by 1.8% in one day, funding rates instantly turned negative to -0.0005%, and the active buy/sell ratio dropped to 0.95. Notably, the long-to-short ratio of contracts surged from 0.94 to 1.16, indicating retail investors are buying against the trend. On-chain, exchanges still saw a net outflow of 16,907 BTC in one day, with a 7-day supply decrease of 0.46%, and the spot market has not panicked or fled.
Structurally, the 4H RSI has dropped from a high to 39.8, and the price is currently closely hugging the 4H EMA20 at 84,433.18. If it can consolidate here, it still represents a settling of chips after a rally; if it falls to the 4H EMA50 at 82,192.12, the short-term breakout structure will be invalidated.
Although long leverage has been cleaned out, the ratio of long positions has abnormally surged. Do you think this is a turnover after deleveraging, or will retail investors rushing to bottom-fish trigger a second wave of liquidation?
#BTC #ContractChips #MarketAnalysis
Personal observation, not investment advice, please assess risks yourself. Ethereum ETF single-day net inflow of $104.64 million, is ETH's capital flow starting to strengthen?
On September 23, the US spot Ethereum ETF saw a net inflow of $104.64 million. This figure is more noteworthy for short-term ETH trading than a simple price rebound.
The reason is simple: continuous ETF net inflows = traditional funds increasing ETH exposure through spot channels → spot buying pressure strengthens → market selling pressure is partially absorbed → price is more likely to form upward elasticity.
For short-term trading, I pay more attention to whether "capital flow + price" resonate. If the ETF continues to maintain net inflows while ETH breaks through short-term resistance with increased volume, it indicates that the capital is not a one-day pulse but is continuously adding positions, which significantly increases the certainty of trend trading.
Conversely, if the ETF has continuous inflows but ETH price does not rise, or even shows volume expansion without price increase, it is necessary to be cautious that the upper-level chips may be realizing profits.
Regarding capital rotation, if BTC remains stable and ETH ETF continues to attract funds, market capital may further tilt from BTC to ETH, and then possibly spread to L2, DeFi, and other high Beta assets.
My personal judgment: the most important significance of this $104.64 million is not the amount itself, but whether it can become a continuous inflow. Single-day data only indicates that funds have started to replenish; continuous inflows over several days are more qualified to be considered a trend signal.
Short-term focus: ETF net inflow → ETH trading volume → key resistance levels → ETH/BTC strength
If all four signals improve simultaneously, the ETH trend line is worth close attention Reasons for BTC volatility range in recent two years, reference for judging quality at each price level
2024.1
38000→47000
SEC approves BTC spot ETF, combined with halving expectations, institutional funds enter
2024.4
42000→73000
Bitcoin halving, continuous ETF inflows, MicroStrategy keeps increasing holdings
2024.11
60000→76200
US presidential election, market expects relaxed crypto regulation, risk appetite rises
2024.12
76000→107800→89000
Due to regulatory positive expectations and short squeeze; after surge, bulls take profits, leveraged positions liquidate and fall back
First half of 2025
89000→124500
Policy benefits, continuous net ETF inflows, rising expectations of interest rate cuts
2025.10
126250→87000
Global risk aversion, high-level leveraged chain liquidations, profit-taking funds exit
2025.11–12
94000→86000
Inflation higher than expected, interest rate cut expectations lowered, ETF turns to net outflows
2026.2
86000→62800
Market expects Fed to maintain high interest rates, dollar strengthens, ETF continuous outflows
2026.6
Lowest 57000
Interest rate cuts continuously delayed, market panic chips loosen
2026.8
57000→78000
US long-term bond yields decline, liquidity expectations improve, low-level short squeeze
2026.9
78000→86000Structurally, 2633 is the most recent bottom for $ETH; if it breaks, it will test 2562 (the low on 9/20), which is the last line of defense for this rally. On the upside, 2787-2806 is a strong resistance zone, and a rebound to 2700-2720 will face pressure. Drawing lines, the swing high on 9/21 and the secondary high on 9/23 form a descending resistance line. As long as this line is not broken, $ETH is dominated by bears in the short term.
Smart money is pulling back.
Looking at open interest (OI) explains why chasing longs is not advisable. $ETH's OI has declined for two consecutive days from the peak of 6.46 billion on 9/22: 102 million outflow on 9/23, and another 194 million outflow on 9/24, bringing OI back to 6.17 billion. The funding rate dropped from 0.0086% on 9/21 to 0.0053% on 9/24—bullish enthusiasm is cooling but not yet frozen, indicating some are still betting on a rebound but risking being trapped.
$BTC is even more decisive; on 9/24 alone, OI outflow was 886 million, totaling 1.145 billion over two days, and the funding rate plummeted to 0.0001%. Smart money is not foolish; after the rise, they take profits first. Those remaining are retail traders hoping to catch a bottom but afraid of being trapped.This profit is currently saved in the photo album
In the crypto world, there are trading experts whose accounts are still on a roller coaster, but their photo albums have already started a celebration party. Every time there is unrealized profit, the first reaction is not to manage the position, but to quickly take a screenshot, fearing that the money won't stay on the phone for more than three seconds.
The following process is quite professional: cut the position, amplify the rate of return, adjust the brightness, then add a caption like "Patience will be rewarded." Just as the copy is finished, the market has already taken back your reward for you.
The most awkward moment is when a friend sees the screenshot and asks, "Dinner on you since you made money?" You can only explain, "You can choose the meal first, the money is still in the transaction history."
Thus, a spectacle appears on the phone: the photo album is responsible for profits, the account is responsible for fluctuations, and the chat history is responsible for stubbornness. Each department does its own thing, and at the end of the month when reconciling accounts, you find only the storage space has steadily decreased.
If there were a "Best Top Exit Award," the screenshot button should get a lifetime achievement award. It always accurately records the highlight moment, then leaves the rest of the story to the person involved.
Next time someone says, "Let me show you my record," remember to first confirm: are they opening the trading app or a photography portfolio?
Do you have a profit screenshot you can't bear to delete, but when you open the account, you can't bear to look a second time?
#CryptoDaily #TradingMindset #ScreenshotTakeProfit 🟠 $BTC + 🔵 $ETH + 🟢 $ZEC | 1H Key Observations
BTC surged to $86.6K then pulled back, currently retesting the $83.6K–$84K support zone; ETH is around $2.67K, and ZEC has retreated to about $1.44K. The short-term market has shifted from a strong breakout to high-level consolidation with noticeably increased volatility.
📊 Three confirmation signals: Price + Volume + OI
🟠 BTC → Market Direction Anchor
Holding $83.5K–$84K → Structure still has room for repair
Reclaiming $85K → Watch the $87K–$89K range
🔵 ETH → Market Breadth
Whether it can stabilize near $2.65K will reflect if mainstream funds continue to follow BTC. Recently, ETH broke through the key resistance near $2,661.
🟢 ZEC → High Beta / Rotation Thermometer
ZEC previously broke above $1,650 but then showed a clear pullback, indicating profit-taking in high-risk assets is increasing.
🚀 BTC stabilizes + ETH/ZEC volume picks up again → Market diffusion may strengthen
⚠️ BTC stabilizes but ETH/ZEC continue weakening → May indicate only localized strength 真正值得关注的，不是BTC短线横盘本身，而是 ETH与SOL能否在BTC震荡期间持续走强。 如果成交量同步放大，这可能意味着资金正在从防守转向更高Beta资产。 但如果只有价格反弹、量能跟不上，仍需警惕假突破。 📊 现在盯紧：成交量 + 相对强弱 + BTC区间结构，不要只看K线。 #BTCPullbackAltRotation #USIranRiskPremium #TokenizedStocks24_7Today, let's experience what it's like to be a "BTC whale"—even though I actually only made $27 😂 and spent hours watching candlesticks, the final profit was just enough to buy a burger meal + iced coffee. But honestly: even if you earn little, you still make money—green is green. 🟢 The most addictive thing in the market is always thinking you'll make more on your next order, but in pursuit of so-called big profits, you end up returning the money you've already received back to the market. 📰 New Market Trends: BTC has recently fluctuated at a high level in the $83,000–$86,000 range, with short-term volatility noticeably increasing. As leveraged funds keep coming in and out, small positions can also experience rapid profit and loss changes. So today's takeaway is simple: you don't have to catch every big market; controlling risk and steadily making profits is also worth celebrating. Today's profits can be bought for burgers and coffee. Tomorrow I'll continue to watch the market, but I'm not in a hurry to prove I'm a 'whale.' 🐳☕ #BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoNews #CryptoTrading #TradingDiary #BTCTreasuryFundingRise #CryptoMarket NFA｜DYOR$BTC This wave, the roller coaster is confirmed.
#BTC surged then pulled back, has market rotation started?
Yesterday's high was $87,237, today's low $83,444, with a 24-hour amplitude close to $4,000. Currently at $83,974, down 2.72% in 24 hours.
In the past 12 hours, the whole network liquidated $389 million, with longs accounting for $352 million, shorts barely hurt.
US Treasury yields surged to 5.11%, oil prices peaked, US stocks retreated, risk appetite suppressed. BTC slid from 87,000 to 84,000, with almost no decent rebound.
83,400–83,600 is the first support; holding it keeps the recovery structure intact; if lost, look at 82,000–81,000. Still up 10.58% over seven days, cannot be directly considered a trend reversal. Glassnode: Long-term holders' largest supply is at 84,000–85,000; gains or losses will decide whether it runs to 96,700 or falls back to 77,000.
The roller coaster isn't scary; what's scary is not knowing which car you're in.
This is not investment advice, crypto risk is extremely high, participate rationally.
$ETH $ZEC
#Will risk premium decrease as US-Iran contacts resume?
#EarningsWatcher: Costco Q4 earnings report coming soon Recently, I have整理ed some views on altcoins.
I believe that in this bull market, the market will reward true diamond hands who can hold on, and altcoins are very likely to迎来 a trend rally. Currently, there is a lot of market divergence, but I actually think this is a good thing: divergence creates opportunities, while consensus requires caution. Instead of arguing about right or wrong, it's better to focus on position sizing and risk control.
Looking back at the 2020–2021 bull market, BTC's maximum increase was about 16 times, while altcoin market caps rose nearly 85 times at their peak. From 2023 to 2025, BTC continues to rise, but altcoins have been oscillating for a long time. In the last cycle, BTC broke through first, and altcoins followed a few months later; this time it's different—BTC has not yet broken its historical high, but some altcoins have already started to strengthen first.
I have always believed that a major BTC bull market cannot happen without altcoins. Now the market has projects like Polymarket and Hyperliquid with real applications, stablecoins are beginning to enter real life, and new narratives such as US stocks on-chain and crypto-stock trading are continuously being implemented.
Among them, HYPE's token buyback through transaction fees is a typical case of value capture. Projects like UNI, ENA, and PONS are also continuously developing new narratives.
After years of consolidation, I still insist: this round of altcoins is very likely to develop a trend rally. Strong players like $UNI, $NEAR, $ZEC, ENA, PUMP, LIT, etc., may have future resilience beyond many people's expectations. $29.3B routed. $842M in one week. One token nearly doubled.
NEAR Intents just posted its strongest cross-chain week yet, including a record $300M+ day. $NEAR responded with a ~92% weekly run before volatility hit hard.
The clue isn’t only the candle: July 2025’s entire Intents volume was ~$406M. Last week alone did more than twice that.$BTC 回落至 $84.6K 附近，较 $87K 高点明显降温，短线重新测试买盘承接区域。 $ETH 回撤至 $2.65K，高位杠杆开始释放，但关键支撑仍值得关注。 $SOL 暂报 $114，虽然同步走弱，链上活跃度和资金关注度仍保持在较高水平。 过去24小时加密市场约有 $5.2亿仓位被清算，此前追涨的高杠杆多头遭遇集中出清。 但真正值得观察的是：现货资金是否继续进场。 机构ETF资金流此前明显改善，BTC冲高后出现回撤，并不自动意味着趋势反转，更需要看后续成交量、ETF净流入以及 $84K–$82K 区域的承接力度。 如果买盘重新出现，$87K 可能再次成为关键突破位； 如果支撑持续失守，市场可能进入更长时间的震荡整理。 现在比猜下一根K线更重要的，是观察杠杆降温后，真实资金有没有回来。 👀 #BTCPullback #AltRotation #BTC #ETH #SOL #CryptoMarket$HYPE spot ETF had a net outflow of about $1.58M on September 23, all coming from BHYP, which stands in stark contrast to the protocol revenue of Hyperliquid, as the protocol is still generating income while ETF funds are flowing out. In Ajian's view, the long-term value of HYPE undoubtedly relies on income from the trading platform, but its short-term value will still be affected by ETF, unlocks, OI, and funding. When trading HYPE, please be sure to distinguish between these two logics Main focus $ETH | Strategy: short selling, high-altitude operation, fasten your seatbelt
$ETH short selling, set orders at $2,700-$2,710 to catch the rebound short, stop loss at $2,760, target first at $2,635 then $2,562, 10x leverage. From the high of 2806 hammered down two days in a row to 2672, the big bearish candle on 9/23 crushed the bulls to the ground—"Chinese people can fly," $ETH also thought it could fly, but it was pulled back by gravity at 2787. Funding rates are dropping, smart money is withdrawing, don’t stubbornly bottom-fish.
$BTC big brother falls first out of respect
$BTC is playing the same drama as $ETH this week: on 9/18 a huge bullish candle pulled from 76256 to 80863, on 9/21 surged to the top at 87385, on 9/23 directly smashed from 87247 down to 83450, closing at 84355. On 9/24 it continued shrinking to 83862. The harshest is $BTC funding rate dropping from 0.0068% on 9/22 to 0.0001% on 9/24—the bulls don’t even want to pay interest to run away. OI dropped a total of 1.145 billion USD in two days, 87385 is a strong resistance, until it breaks through $BTC is bleeding at the high level. 昨天我就提前提醒过这一点，所以这次没有继续追高，已经分批减掉大部分 $BTC 和 $ETH 仓位，先把利润和风险控制放在第一位。 但 $OKB 我反而开始关注了。 原因很简单：这一轮市场反弹过程中，$OKB 的表现明显没有完全跟上主流资产的节奏。如果资金继续向交易所平台币和生态资产轮动，$OKB 后续可能存在补涨空间。 当然，补涨不等于一定上涨，关键还是看成交量、资金流入以及突破后的持续性。 现在更重要的不是猜下一根K线，而是观察资金下一步到底往哪里走。 $BTC 负责方向，$ETH 观察市场广度，$OKB 则重点关注补涨逻辑。 不追高，等确认。Four major events happened simultaneously last night: PMI 58.4 + cold response to government bond auction + Barr hawkish comments + oil price breaking $100
The 10-year US Treasury yield jumped 14bp to 5.113%, breaking 5% for the first time since 2007.
But breaking it down: 80-85% of the increase comes from real interest rates, inflation expectations only moved 2bp. The market is not panicking about inflation, it is recalculating the discount rate.
AI divergence explains everything: Google -3.8%, NVDA -1.4% (longest forward cash flow), META +1.0% (new products realized in the near term). The ones being hit are AI companies without cash flow, not AI itself.
BTC dropped to $83,744 but ETFs saw net inflows exceeding $1.7 billion for two consecutive days. Institutions haven't withdrawn, leverage is moving first.
Looking ahead to the next week for PCE and non-farm payrolls: continued overheating = another round of shakeout; data cooling = interest rates peak = Nasdaq starting point. 🟠 $BTC / 🔵 $ETH — Key turning point, don't just look at the price 👀
BTC surged then pulled back to around $84K–$86K, while ETH consolidated near $2.65K–$2.75K. What truly deserves attention now is not just the price movement of individual coins, but the relative strength between BTC and ETH.
📊 BTC/ETH rising → BTC continues to dominate the market
📉 BTC/ETH falling → ETH's relative performance starts to strengthen
🔥 Latest market catalyst: The US spot BTC ETF recently saw nearly $1B net inflow in a single day, which remains an important support for BTC's current strength; meanwhile, some profit-taking occurred at high levels, causing BTC to pull back short-term to about $84K.
📍 Key zones BTC: $86K → $84K → $81K
ETH: $2.75K → $2.65K → $2.55K
🧠 Trading logic: Price breakout ≠ trend confirmation. If BTC continues to strengthen and BTC/ETH ratio rises simultaneously, it indicates capital still favors BTC; if BTC moves sideways while ETH starts to outperform, capital rotation toward ETH and high Beta sectors may occur.
⚠️ Geopolitical risks and US Treasury yields may still amplify short-term volatility, so don't judge the trend solely by chasing a single big bullish candle.
Direction is important, but ratio + volume matter too Another family member shorted the storage stock cxmt on hyperliquid and ended up losing 10.42 million USD, with funding fees alone costing 5.24 million USD.
Cxmt, although it opened with a very high market cap, is still not something to short. Spcx opened with an even higher market cap and many people shorted it; even if they made money, I wouldn't envy them.
Now, whether it's the stock market, precious metals like gold and silver, or crypto assets, no matter how high the opening or market cap, I won't short.
In my understanding, the cost-effectiveness of shorting is really too low; even if the market cap goes to zero, you only make one times your money. But if the price rallies and you don't cut losses and keep holding, no matter how much money you have, there's always a risk of liquidation. Because the upside has no ceiling, no one knows how high the market cap can surge when market sentiment and FOMO explode.