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On Friday, the Nasdaq hit a new high again, and Nvidia simultaneously set a historic record. Many people have been waiting for the US stock market to crash for years, but the index and leading stocks keep hitting new highs. I want to ask everyone: when overseas core assets continue to rally, do you still insist on the view that the US stock bubble is about to burst? In the face of the trend, should we wait for a crash or align ourselves with the strong? Also, to friends holding A-shares, do you still hope for the market to open after the holiday? Just asking if you’re feeling panic yet 📊 Short-term Market Analysis (15 minutes - 1 hour): Extremely low volume, brewing for a breakout · Price Performance: After a sharp drop from 87,239 to 83,826 in the previous phase, the market has entered a "dead time," with the current price hovering quietly around 84,800. · Technical Patterns: · 15-minute level: Moving averages (MA5/10/20/30) are all tightly clustered near 84,800. Bollinger Bands are extremely narrow (upper band 84,861, lower band 84,742). MACD is almost flat near the zero line (DIF 44.1, DEA 47.9). This pattern is a classic calm before the storm, with a breakout possible at any moment. · 1-hour level: MACD forms a golden cross below the zero line (red bar 95.8), indicating bearish momentum exhaustion and a technical rebound demand. However, due to extremely low volume (only 1.7 BTC), the rebound strength is weak, with resistance at the 85,000-85,200 range. · Short-term Key Levels: Support at 83,800, resistance at 85,200. 📉 Mid-term Trend (4 hours - 1 day): High-level pullback stabilizing, moving averages intertwined · 4-hour level: Price is enclosed by various moving averages (MA5: 84,693, MA10: 84,995, MA20: 84,562), MACD shows a death cross but the green bar is shortening (-62.3). The "double top" resistance at previous high 87,374 remains, representing a correction phase after a sharp rise and fall. · Daily level: · The daily chart shows a low-volume doji star, with bullish moving average alignment (MA5, MA10, MA20) still intact. Strong support lies at the daily MA20 (82,730) and the middle Bollinger Band. · Daily MACD death cross is diverging downward (DIF 1887.3, DEA 2021.9, green bar -269.2), indicating the daily-level correction is not yet complete and requires time to regain space. 🚀 Long-term Trend: Mid-stage consolidation in a bull market · VanEck clearly states "Bitcoin is in the early stage of a bull market, with long-term targets aligned with gold," setting the tone for the long-term trend. · However, short-term bearish disturbances exist (Fig. 2: Bitdeer sold 292.3 BTC this week; Fig. 1: stablecoin market cap shrank, liquidity weakened). · Overall, the long-term trend remains a bull market dominated by bulls. The current weakness is a normal wide-range consolidation after a failed rally. 87,400 is a strong mid-term resistance, and 82,400-83,000 is strong mid-term support. 💡 Comprehensive Trading Suggestions · Spot Traders: The long-term outlook is bullish; hold your base positions. If the price dips to 82,500 - 83,000 (near daily MA20), it is an excellent opportunity to add or replenish positions. The current 84,800 level is a middle ground; large purchases are not recommended. · Futures Traders: · Avoid heavy positions: Due to the extreme narrowing of Bollinger Bands on 15-minute and 1-hour charts, a large volatility event (spike or one-sided move) is imminent, with high risk of simultaneous long and short liquidations. · Right-side trading: Patiently wait for a breakout. A volume breakout above 85,200 allows light long positions (target 86,000); a valid breakdown below 83,800 allows light short positions (target 82,500). · Strict stop-loss: Leverage is recommended to be controlled within 5x, with wider stop-loss space to guard against malicious spikes during late-night liquidity droughts. I'm not positioning during the weekend, but I'm already looking at scenario's on Bitcoin for next week. This drop to the downside left two big gaps, so orders probably need to be filled there before a potential bigger drop. So if we test the 85.7K-86.7K region before testing 82K, I'm definitely looking for short triggers. 82K is still a valid POI for intraday/swing long opportunities. Especially since we're now engineering more and more liquidity beneath the 82.5K lows. Time to reset this weekenMade a box of profit on oil, is there still a chance to add to my short position at 1900? Storage, which has been soaring since February this year, is undergoing a major correction. Even with Micron's earnings report out, it didn't rally, indicating no big money is entering the market. Everyone is afraid of a high price; just one piece of news could push it back below 1000. I've only entered a starter position. I believe the storage correction in Q4 will be significant, and I plan to take a big hit on it.This load-bearing column has already settled down by a full three centimeters, yet those who don't understand engineering are still shouting to cap the top! Just came down from a twenty-meter-high scaffold, the cement dust on my gloves hasn't even been wiped off, I took out my phone to check my position, and I was stunned right under the tower crane. An 823% profit rate slammed onto the screen like a steel stamp. I rubbed my eyes three times, thinking the reflection from the safety helmet had dazzled me. In my life working on construction sites moving bricks and mixing mortar, I've never seen such a pouring speed. After the joy, cold sweat covered my back. Those who work in construction know best: if the building rises too steeply or the sand-to-gravel ratio is off, a surge often means the foundation hasn't been properly compacted but is forcibly raised. A strong wind could cause the whole thing to collapse at any time. When the trend pushes you to the sky, not even the tower crane can stop it, but if this money isn't converted into real steel and concrete in the bank, it's just a construction blueprint that can become invalid at any moment. Looking at the current $XRP chart, the price is hovering around 1.49. The lower Bollinger Band near 1.478 provides a fairly solid concrete cushion. The daily RSI is around 49, neither up nor down, like a bare wall just stripped of its formwork—strength barely passable, but the load-bearing index is still uncertain. If the foundation here can be stabilized, there's room to build scaffolding upwards, but if the foundation is pierced, there's a deep pit below. The entry point must be precise; even half a centimeter off can easily cut the main rebar: - Target: $XRP 🟢 - Entry: 1.475 - 1.495 - TP1: 1.560 - TP2: 1.620 - SL: 1.435 Once the load-bearing wall cracks beyond the stop-loss line, the entire structure is instantly scrapped. #CoinMoveAlertThe reason behind DOGE's rebound in September does not lie in DOGE itself, but in stablecoins. New money entering the crypto market follows a fixed path: first converting into USDT or USDC and staying within the exchange, then flowing into risk assets when the opportunity arises. Therefore, changes in stablecoin market capitalization become a leading indicator to observe capital willingness. September's data confirmed this path. USDT's market cap increased by $2 billion in a single month, $LAB either has one less zero or one more zero, this sideways trading with no clear direction is really boring, stuck for more than half a year, it's simply frustrating, if it doesn't work out just delist it and be done with it.#美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% At the same October meeting, five sources gave five different numbers. ▪️ October unchanged: CME 71.8%, the other four sources cluster between 81.7% and 85% ▪️ Converted to rate hikes: CME 28.2%, interest rate swap market only gives 17% ▪️ The difference between highest and lowest is 13.2 points, all referring to the same October 28 meeting ▪️ It is neither a survey nor a forecast, but derived from 30-day federal funds futures prices The disagreement is not about whether to hike rates in October, but about this percentage which is a division — the denominator is the number of days remaining after that meeting. CME’s ruler measures 30-day federal funds futures, price equals 100 minus the average rate for the month. To read whether there will be a hike, you have to compare the rates for the days after the meeting. The September meeting was mid-month, leaving half a month after. This time it’s set for the 28th, with 31 days in October, leaving only 3 days after the meeting. This percentage is used daily to explain Bitcoin’s price moves. Yet it itself has five different answers from five sources. The fewer days divided, the greater the fluctuation of the same price is magnified. Which ruler do you trust more? Just saw the $TRUMP team transfer out 81.87 million tokens, cashing out 249 million USD. Guess what happened to the coin price? It rose by 0.19%. Damn. A selling pressure of 249 million USD slammed down, yet it didn't hit a new low. My first reaction wasn't "awesome," but a chill down my spine. This market is unusually strong. I've seen this "bad news can't move the price" script before, usually followed by a pump to trap those trying to catch the dip. I really dare not touch $TRUMP, I don't The most impulsive aspect of the market is not the breakdown or breakout, but the stories of "90% win rate" and consecutive take-profits. Kraken public market data shows $BTC around 84.84K, with a 24-hour range of approximately 83.86K–85.24K, and the price remains in the narrow middle range; signals like "early October long win rate" and "$ENA 2–5x" appearing in the window lack sufficient public verification, so I do not treat them as facts. My personal market observation is: 84K remains a defense level, 85K is a short-term confirmation; between these two boundaries, I would rather miss out than chase. If the close stands above 85K and the pullback does not break below, then consider following the trend; if it breaks below 84K, I will wait for a rebound confirmation first and will not catch a falling knife just because of a "new high imminent" claim. I pay more attention to whether volume expands and whether the pullback shrinks, rather than the target prices in screenshots. Without verifiable catalysts, I will not include specific opportunities in this round. Will you wait for 85K to be reclaimed, or wait for a rebound after 84K is lost? This is for information sharing only and does not constitute investment advice.In September, the US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, far below market expectations. After the data was released, BTC quickly surged to around $87,000, but after pushing up, it was pressed back down. To be clear, the market is not lacking bullish sentiment right now, but the selling pressure above $87,000 is indeed significant. My current view on Bitcoin $BTC is quite clear: the short-term trend is still somewhat strong, but don’t rush to treat it as a one-sided bull market. The key point going forward is whether the $87,000 level can truly be held above. If it breaks through with volume and the pullback holds steady, I believe there is room for the market to continue moving upward; but if it repeatedly fails to break higher, then it will likely continue to consolidate and grind. Also, don’t forget the macroeconomic aspect. Employment is clearly cooling down, and if CPI and PCE continue to decline, the Fed’s policy expectations will ease, making the funding environment increasingly favorable for BTC. Combined with continuous ETF inflows, this is the signal I truly value. Whether $87,000 can be broken through and held above are key points to watch going forward 👀 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 🔥 The core driving force behind this round of rally: institutional reallocation amid valuation dislocation This rally is not driven by regulatory policy benefits—the much-anticipated "Clear Act" has yet to make substantial progress. The core logic behind the rally is very straightforward: relative dislocation of asset valuations. Latest data as of September 28: Over the past 12 months, the US stock S&P 500 has risen more than 18%, with valuations reaching a high range in recent years, while Bitcoin has cumulatively dropped 26% over the same period. Even after the September rebound, the price is still more than 30% below the all-time high of $126,000 set in 2025; Institutional investors view Bitcoin as a low-valuation alternative asset to hedge against the risk of overvalued stocks, directly driving rapid capital inflows. In the last week of September, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a weekly net inflow of $2.4 billion, hitting an 11-month high. This year, ETFs have turned from net outflows to net inflows for the first time. Currently, all approved ETFs have cumulative holdings exceeding 1.2 million coins, with BlackRock alone holding over 450,000 coins and continuing to increase its position; Fidelity's Global Macro Head Jurrien Timmer clearly pointed out that Bitcoin has hovered around the $60,000 support zone for nearly a year, consistent with the historical time pattern of bear market bottoms. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's valuation Z-score relative to gold has shifted from negative to positive, which is a very clear bottom signal in the past three cycles. $BTC $ETH $SOL $ZEC $HYPE $XRP $DOGESisters, 1300 can't hold, the 1200 defense battle has begun. As mentioned before, the trend of $ZEC has completely reversed. Now it’s a continuous decline with the downtrend expanding. Why do I dare to keep holding? Because look at the current contract long-short ratio. Long positions account for 51.63%, shorts only 48.37%. What does this data indicate? It means most retail investors now think the bottom is in and it’s time to buy the dip, but this is actually the biggest trap. This is also why retail investors keep getting harvested. Everyone knows altcoins have no bottom. The manipulators exploit retail investors’ mentality of “it’s dropped so much it should rebound” to repeatedly harvest profits. You think you’re buying the dip, but you’re actually taking over at mid-slope. Looking at the trend, ZEC dropped from 1417 straight down to 1270, the 1300 round number didn’t even struggle, it broke through directly. MA5, MA10, MA20 are all in bearish alignment, MACD is continuously expanding below the zero line. Every rebound is firmly suppressed by the moving averages, and 1200 below is the next psychological barrier. My short position has been held since 1656, with a floating profit of 1000%, but I’m in no rush to exit. Targets are 1200 and 1100 below. For those wanting to short, don’t rush to chase around 1296 now; wait for a rebound to around 1320 to 1350 to try a light position, set stop loss above 1420, and first target 1200. No need to go heavy, set take profit properly, the risk-reward ratio is very favorable. Hold your short positions firmly, don’t get off lightly! $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% Nonfarm payrolls in the US increased by only 29,000 in September, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Nonfarm data fell far short of expectations, yet gold and BTC declined instead; the market is playing out a second-layer logic. Employment data was weak, which theoretically should lower rate hike expectations. The market briefly surged when the data was released, but after the US stock market opened, US Treasury yields rebounded and the trend reversed. The market no longer trades only on short-term rate cut expectations but instead worries about rising crude oil prices and fiscal deficits causing long-term inflation pressure, pushing up long-term term premiums and suppressing interest-free assets. Going forward, focus can be placed on crude oil, long-term bond yields, and the US dollar. $ETH $BTC $ZEC #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 $UNI is around $9.20, and the tokenization narrative is getting harder to ignore Recent data shows Uniswap v3 + v4 captured roughly 60% of tokenized-stock DEX volume, with the market expanding rapidly Now add permissioned pools and new institutional infrastructure being built around Uniswap v4 The interesting part for me isn’t the current hype — it’s whether Uniswap becomes core liquidity infrastructure as more traditional assets move onchain That’s the next phase I’m watching[Old Leek Observation] $KMNO Binance Wallet has once again injected real money into Solana DeFi. This time it's Kamino. Binance Wallet announced: Providing a $150,000 reward to Kamino's RockawayX RWA USDC pool. The event lasts 60 days, and users can participate with a minimum subscription of 100 USDC. Note that what's really interesting here is not the $150,000. But rather: Binance Wallet is directly connecting RWA funds with Solana DeFi. Kamino itself is a lending and liquidity protocol on Solana. Now with the addition of RWA yield products, Binance Wallet is also directly providing traffic and yield incentives. KMNO is currently still around $0.04. It fell back from around $0.048 a few days ago, and there has been no obvious news-driven pump. So what I want to focus on more is: After this event starts, whether Kamino's capital scale and on-chain activity can truly pick up. If the funds really come in, KMNO will have a second phase story. Entry: $0.0395–$0.0410 Take profit: $0.043 / $0.046 / $0.050 / $0.055 / $0.062 Stop loss: $0.0375 $STRK surged 11.2%, but I lean bearish, expecting 0.05047 to be reached $STRK hit CoinGecko trending, surging 11.2% in 24h, current price 0.0486, I’m inclined to short. It jumped from 0.0408 to 0.0505 intraday; the sharper the rise, the more I doubt its follow-through. Being bearish is not nitpicking. Daily RSI at 62.0 is slightly strong, MACD just formed a death cross above zero line yesterday with expanding red bars, indicating weakening momentum at the peak; funding rate 0.00005 is neutral, long-to-short account ratio 1.182, longs are not leveraged, so the rally lacks ammunition; on the US stock side, Coinbase-related crypto stocks average -1.15%, sentiment hasn’t caught up with the coin price. Resistance above: 0.05047 (24h high) Support below: 0.04075 (4h SAR) The overall market is still in an offensive phase (fear-greed index 67), but STRK has risen 75.86% in 30 days, with a 30-day percentile of 0.912, clearly overextended—if the rebound fails to break 0.05047, that’s a shorting opportunity; breaking below 0.04075 accelerates downside. At 0.0486 I’ll short directly, cut losses above 0.05047, take profit at 0.04075 on pullback. Going to watch the market, follow me for the next signal. $STRK $BTC1/4 Cooling employment supports short-term risk appetite, but ETF funds are still diverging, and a comprehensive strengthening of the four coins has not yet been confirmed. At 20:30 Beijing time on October 2, the US September non-farm payrolls were released: actual increase of 29,000, expected 90,000, previous value revised to 133,000; 61,000 below expectations. 2/4 From September 28 to October 2, net flows of ETFs covered by Farside, amounts in USD: • BTC: provisional net inflow of 82.9 million. • ETH: provisional net outflow of 118 million. • SOL: net inflow of 800,000. • HYPE: net inflow of 3.4 million. BTC and ETH on Friday still lack IBIT, ETHA, ETHB data; provisional amounts may be adjusted. 3/4 After data release, the dollar weakened, US stocks rose, but US Treasury yields first fell then rose. The market's reaction to weak employment is not unilaterally dovish. My judgment: short-term risk appetite improvement may support the four coins; mid-term, BTC needs to verify the sustainability of inflows, ETH needs to observe reversal of redemptions, SOL and HYPE need to be verified in combination with on-chain funds, usage, and revenue. High yields remain a risk. 4/4 Follow-up observation: after ETF data is completed, can funds continue to flow in and resonate with yield declines and enhanced spot buying? Data query: Beijing time October 4; ETF dates according to source trading days. $BTC $ETH $SOL I've been watching a data point these past two days: $BTC exchange 30-day net flow has reached -38,000 coins. In other words, in the past month, 38,000 more BTC have flowed out of exchanges than flowed in. But what about the price? It's still hovering around 84,000. This is quite annoying. Based on past experience, this continuous outflow of coins at least indicates that large funds are not frantically depositing coins into exchanges. What's more interesting is that the total stablecoin supply has now reached $311.9 billion, increasing by about 1% over 30 days. The subsequent market is likely to continue fluctuating, so vigilance is needed again and again #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 #非农降温难压美债收益率，长期利率压力仍在 #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 $SAND Before going to sleep, I saw this kept not dropping, so I casually bought over ten thousand dollars worth. Woke up in the morning with a full harvest, almost breaking even😭The higher the price rises, the more the smart money shorts $SAND surged another 20% in just over a dozen hours. The market looks lively, but the backend data tells a different story. At midnight, the long positions were 543 versus 232 shorts, with longs clearly dominant. After the price pulled up, longs didn’t follow; instead, they quietly withdrew 19 contracts. Meanwhile, the shorts surged by 100 people at once, pushing total positions to 6.68 million U, completely overtaking. The price is rising, but the main force is aggressively adding shorts. This signal couldn’t be clearer—the rally is not seen by the main players as a buying opportunity but as a perfect spot to build short positions and hammer the market. Retail investors chase the rally, while smart money opens shorts based on position. One watches the candlesticks excitedly, the other watches the chip layout. I’ve rarely seen anyone make big money at the peak, but I’ve seen too many chasing highs and standing guard. So I don’t hesitate on this trade; I keep adding to my short position heavily, siding with smart money, just waiting for the main force to close the net and smash the market. Of course, position management is position management, risk control is risk control. Smart money can be wrong too, but their win rate and positioning are much better than retail. I look at the odds, not emotions. $BTC $ETH $SNDK #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Morning Brief: Waiting for BTC to Pull the Trigger The market looks like a relay race, with BTC still running the first leg. Current price is 84129, up 1.26% intraday, repeatedly knocking on the 85000 level. ETF net inflows have ranked last for 9 consecutive days, PCE leaning dovish brings some warmth, but the 5.6% US Treasury yield still caps the ceiling. Whether it breaks or not depends on volume: high volume pushes upward, breaking the upper boundary of the range; low volume means continued consolidation. If it doesn't move, the whole market struggles to rally. ETH is the quietest at 2682, moving sideways. ETF flows have shifted from inflows to outflows, with institutional preference clearly tilting towards BTC; rising staking rates indicate long-term holders haven't left, but short-term bleeding makes 2700 a tough resistance and 2650 a defense line. SOL is at 119.35, up 0.94%, hovering around the 120 threshold for two days. NFT and DeFi recovery along with improved ETF inflows provide a positive backdrop, but what's missing is BTC's starting signal. If BTC breaks through, SOL is expected to catch up, with 128 in sight after stabilizing above 120. OKB at 121.29, up 1.07%, is the most stable among platform tokens, supported by lock-ups, buybacks, and overseas stablecoin plans. RE at 0.49028 slightly up, with 0.45 as the floor, thin market cap but resilient. In short: BTC must pull the trigger first before the smaller players dare to charge. Today, watch the volume, not the sentiment. [Old Leek Observation] Binance Wallet has injected real money into the TRON ecosystem today. TRONCarnival Season 3 officially launched: $2 million worth of rewards. The event starts on October 4 and runs until December 3. The main participants are the $TRX, $JST, $SUN, and USDD pools on JustLend. The really interesting part of this is not how big the $2 million is. But rather: Binance Wallet is directly driving traffic to TRON DeFi. TRX is still around $0.336, barely moving in the past few days. If the funds brought by the event start to increase significantly later, the first things worth watching are not the promotions, but: Whether JustLend's TVL, TRX on-chain activity, and TRX trading volume rise together. This current position is much more comfortable than chasing coins that have already been pumped. Entry: $0.332–$0.337 Take profit: $0.345 / $0.355 / $0.368 / $0.382 / $0.400 Stop loss: $0.324 🔥 Maji pushed the longs back down to 152 million, but the really interesting part isn't this number. The market adjusted today, and he first cut some BTC, ETH, and HYPE, losing about $190,000 in a single trade, then gradually started to buy back. Later, he even added about 60 more BTC. Currently, the total long exposure is about 152.7 million USD: About 26.7 million in BTC, ETH directly accounts for about 103.8 million, HYPE about 16.3 million, and PUMP about 5.9 million. The structure is actually very clear: BTC + ETH are the base positions, HYPE + PUMP add flexibility. But don’t interpret “daring to hold heavy positions” as “guaranteed profit.” Margin usage is about 85% now, unrealized drawdown is about 1.3 million USD, and leverage and position size will also amplify losses. So what’s really worth watching is not how bold he is, but what happens next: Will he keep buying on the dip, or start withdrawing when it rises? What the whale does is his business; for ordinary people, the most important thing is not to turn themselves into liquidity. $ETH $BTC $HYPE $PUMP The above is just personal market observation and does not constitute trading advice. The setup looks different now $SOL is around $119, sitting just below the $123–$125 resistance zone after cooling from the recent push higher For me, $116–$118 is the first area to watch on a pullback Lose that zone and $113 comes into focus, with $105–$104 as the deeper support area But reclaim $125 cleanly and the whole short-term structure changes I’m waiting for the level to confirm before forcing a trade$PUMP altcoins really don't even bother to pretend anymore; after killing the bulls, they immediately turn around and kill the shortsSeptember's jobs miss (29K vs 90K expected, unemployment to 4.2%) is still driving crypto. $BTC jumped from $83K to $87,250 as October hike odds crashed from ~73% to 25%, Fed-pause bets now at 85%. October's historically Bitcoin's strongest month, and this report supercharged that tailwind. But one strategist's warning stands: weak data isn't automatically bullish — a real growth scare could still drag risk assets down with it. #USNFPDataCools Nonfarm payrolls are relatively weak: only 29,000 new jobs added, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The market did not move uniformly up or down; instead, it clearly showed a division between strong and weak sectors. DOGE is at 0.09249, down 2.77%. Sentiment-driven funds are retreating, price is approaching support, with limited room for trial and error. If the support breaks, the pullback could accelerate. ZEC is at 1292.41, down 5.82%. Previously strong positions are starting to loosen; the key level has become a dividing line between bulls and bears. Holding it means consolidation; losing it opens downside space. SK Hynix is at 1372.7, down only 0.17%. As a semiconductor proxy, its resilience is more supported by the industry cycle than short-term sentiment. Under the same market conditions, there are three reactions: thematic retreat, strong catch-up decline, and solid resistance. In this differentiated market, I prefer to observe first, waiting for support confirmation and volume contraction before acting. If participation is necessary, only use small positions, treat breakouts as discipline, and do not treat speculation as faith. This is only a personal review record and does not constitute investment advice. #Nonfarm #DOGE #ZEC #SKHynix $ATOM ATOM, the next "cross-chain settlement layer" chosen by Wall Street? When Wells Fargo chooses to build cross-border tokenized deposits on Cosmos, and 17 institutions join the Partner Network, ATOM is no longer just a "cross-chain coin." IBC connects 115+ networks, processes over $50 billion in transactions, and 200+ chains are built using the Cosmos SDK. The Osmosis proposal cancels inflation and uses revenue to buy back ATOM, LSM unlocks liquid staking, and IBC v2 is about to connect Solana and EVM. From "inflation-driven" to "revenue-driven," ATOM is completing a thrilling leap in value capture. This is not short-term speculation; it is a long-term revaluation of infrastructure. #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Account Position Divergence Radar｜Last 15 Minutes $SAND top accounts are more bullish, but position size is more bearish: account long-short ratio is 1.23, position ratio is 0.95; the difference in the proportion of the two types of long positions has expanded by 1.08 percentage points. There are more bullish accounts, but a long position size advantage has not yet formed.Honestly, I'm not reading too much into this week's ETF numbers. $BTC funds pulled in just $259-280M, a real step down from last week's $2.4B surge, even bleeding $150M on October 1 alone. $ETH held up slightly better at $110M net despite its own $14M outflow same day. Neither's falling apart, both stayed green. But the pace cooling this fast tells me last week was the outlier, not the new baseline. #USNFPDataCools $CORE Recently, I saw their tweet saying that in the coming months they will gradually hand over the remaining block production roles to independent validators! Guess what kind of scheme this is? Here are my personal views! Everyone has different opinions, hopefully it's not like this! First, Satpay has been promoting since the beginning of the year that it would launch in June, but due to other reasons it was postponed to July, then August.The most vulnerable link has never been the price, but who controls the rhythm. You think you're watching the K-line, but actually the market is watching whose position moves first? These past couple of days, I've been repeatedly reviewing the on-chain actions, and the more I look, the more interesting it gets. A certain top player started reducing positions when BTC was still stable around 53,000, gradually lowering to about 36,000, avoiding the most panic-stricken period. When the market showed signs of restarting, they dared to buy back, pushing above 54,000 before stopping again. ETH is even more delicate; the unrealized profit peaked at over 2 million, but they insisted on unloading some at the peak, then slowly replenished around 37,000 as it fell. HYPE followed a similar script, from 200,000 to 226,000, then shrinking to 179,000, and recently adjusting positions again. This is not about guessing direction; it's about treating positions like breathing. The current issue is that non-farm payrolls only increased by 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, and spot ETFs for BTC and ETH simultaneously turned to net outflows. These signals combined mean that short-term pricing is already trading on the "growth slowdown plus capital outflow" combination. When risk appetite contracts, the first to be drained is the altcoin buying depth, then ETH's elasticity, and finally BTC feels the real selling pressure. So you'll see sector strength quietly shifting; themes that rose sharply earlier start to stagnate, while defensive positions are reconsidered. The bullish path is not impossible either. If ETF outflows are just temporary rebalancing rather than sustained withdrawals, and unemployment rises actually strengthen rate cut expectations, then BTC may still stabilize first after sentiment recovers, with ETH and quality altcoins following.$WLD was at 0.567 last night, touched 0.571 this afternoon, up about 7% in 24 hours. This time it didn't give back all the gains, showing some short-term resilience. But a single day of strength doesn't mean the trend has turned bullish. If the market dips again, it needs to hold and raise the lows again to be more convincing; for now, watch if the gains can hold steady. $AAVE dropped from around 182 last night to 177.6, still up about 16% for the week, and previous gains haven't been wiped out. A pullback doesn't mean an immediate downturn, but weekly gains don't guarantee no drops either. If it can get back near last night's level, it means recovery is ongoing; if each rebound is weaker, expectations should be lowered. $SOL was around 119 at noon, still slightly down for the week, so patience is more suitable here. 120 is worth watching, but being just one dollar apart, repeated crossing has limited reference value. What we want to see is a sustained recovery after reclaiming, not just a brief rise followed by a fall. There's no need to touch every coin now; wait for confirmation on those you understand, and avoid frequent moves on unclear ones. $ATOM ATOM is transforming into the "settlement layer for traditional finance on-chain." IBC connects 115+ chains; Cosmos SDK is adopted by 200+ projects; the Partner Network includes 17 institutions such as BitGo and Galaxy Digital, and Wells Fargo is also using its technology to advance tokenized deposits. Token economy reforms are taking effect: inflation has dropped from 20% to 10%, LSM enables staked ATOM to be liquid, and Osmosis plans to use protocol revenue for buyback and burn. As RWA and CBDC become the main narratives, ATOM may be an undervalued cross-chain hub. Only those who understand the structure can hold through the next cycle. #BTC, ETH spot ETFs are simultaneously seeing outflows, cooling capital enthusiasm #The US-Iran situation remains tense, G7 to release up to 100 million barrels of reserves #OKX.ai: One person is a world-class company $BTC needs to close below 83800 on Friday to operate; otherwise, it will sweep the 87000 level, and this sweep could rise to 91000. There is a small trading opportunity around the 87000 range. Additionally, if the Friday closing price is above 87700 USD, an increase to 91000 will be seen, establishing a trading position for an upward trend. Unless the weekly close is above 87700 USD, the bias is downward. $ETH price touched the 2740 USD range and was rejected. It is now almost exactly at the lower edge of the recent 4-hour range. The important area now is 2645-2660 USD; holding this and reclaiming 2690-2700 USD means the price still has the potential to push back to the high point of the range. However, if the 4-hour candle cleanly closes below 2645 USD, the situation will change. In that case, 2610 USD will be the next key area. It is not yet a breakout pattern; this range is deciding whether this pullback is just a reset or the start of a weaker trend. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #美伊局势持续紧张，G7将释放最多1亿桶储备 #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #财报观察员：美光上调指引，存储需求继续走强 Revenue, EPS, and gross margin all exceeded expectations this quarter. The company itself lowered the gross margin guidance for the next quarter. ▪️ Q4 revenue 54.23 billion (expected 51.49 billion), adjusted gross margin 87.0% (expected 86.2%) ▪️ Next quarter revenue guidance 61.5 billion, EPS 38.15 both higher than expected; gross margin only 86.25%, lower than the expected 86.7% ▪️ The roughly 1 billion USD difference is due to employee incentive compensation accrued in Q4, advancing inventory in manufacturing ▪️ Inventory days 129, 9 days more than last quarter; once this batch is sold, the cost will be reflected in the gross margin The disagreement is not about whether AI storage can still rise, but the only line in this guidance that goes down is not due to demand, it’s self-imposed. The CFO said this is the low point for gross margin in fiscal 2027, and it will rise quarter by quarter with prices afterward. But the market focus is on this figure. The demand side is fully written: over 75% of 2027 capacity is already locked, and the supply-demand ratio in 2027 and 2028 will be tighter than in 2026. The company says this figure will recover on its own, but the market first remembers that it has dropped. Which side do you believe? $HYPE returned to around 88.7 in the evening, slightly higher than 87.85 in the late afternoon, but still hasn't reached 90. I think we can now look at a recovery; it's still too early to expect a strong comeback. Next, if it approaches 90, the key is to see whether buyers are willing to continue pushing it up. A quick surge followed by a retreat is completely different from holding steady and then moving higher. After a drop from a high level, during the rebound there may be sellers wanting to exit; whether this selling pressure can be absorbed is more important than how far it is from the round number. $LINK hasn't changed my view yet. It was 13.96 in the late afternoon and 13.85 in the evening; although the change isn't big, the expected upward recovery hasn't appeared. For now, watch more and act less; don't give the price more patience just because you're familiar with the project. If it can really reclaim 14 later and gradually move higher, then it's time to raise expectations. We can't count on an unrealized rise now. $DOGE remains around 0.093 in the evening, not much different from the afternoon. With this performance, I won't rush to be bullish just because it hasn't dropped further temporarily, nor will I assume a big drop based on this small fluctuation. Wait for a clearer move first, then see if there's support on any pullback. When the market is stagnant, it's easiest to get bored and look for opportunities, but the price doesn't move far while your position gets heavier. #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 On October 3rd, Solana ecosystem Stonk launched the "community coin" model: users holding top Meme coins like USELESS and PENGU can proportionally share 33% of the newly issued Meme coin holder rewards. In my opinion, the clever part is turning "holding coins passively" into "earning rent from holding coins"; the old Meme holders finally get a kind of retirement fund. 🤣 $BTC $ETH $PENGUFrom the current on-chain core data, ETH bullish momentum has basically faded, with concentrated outbreaks of marginal bearish signals, and short-term downside risks continue to increase. First, the beacon chain staking exit queue continues to climb, with a large number of validators applying for unlocks. Although it won't cause a sudden dump, the continuously accumulating unlocked supply forms a long-term potential selling pressure, and every small rebound triggers profit-taking sales, severely suppressing the rebound height. Second, the market's high-level profit-taking sentiment is strong, and realized profits on-chain remain at a high level. During this rebound, whales and medium-to-long-term holders have gradually cashed out profits in batches, main holding chips continue to loosen, the market's selling pressure sources are abundant, and the bullish chip structure continues to deteriorate. From the capital flow perspective, bearish signals are clear. ETH has recently shifted from long-term net outflows from exchanges to sustained net inflows. On-chain funds recharging exchanges represent increased spot selling willingness, with more chips waiting to be sold on the market, which is a typical signal of a market top and pullback, and spot selling pressure is continuously accumulating. At the same time, market buying is severely lacking, with almost no new whale accumulation behavior on the market, and no incremental funds to absorb selling pressure. Coupled with increased frequency of long position liquidations in contracts, once key supports break, it will trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations, forming a negative feedback loop for price decline. Overall, currently, the loosening of on-chain chips, accumulation of unlocked selling pressure, capital outflows, and drying up of buying demand form four major bearish resonances. The on-chain trend clearly weakens, with no bottom stabilization signals at this stage, and a high probability of continued weak downward movement in the market. #ETH On-Chain Analysis #Ethereum Market BTC made a sharp surge, pulling the market from the 83,000–84,000 range up above 86,000, ETH is holding around 2,730, and SOL has returned to 123. The index moved, but the funds are selective; the next battle is not about a breakout, but about support after a pullback. $BTC is around 86,600, with 85,500–86,000 turning into the first support level. If it holds, watch 87,000–87,500; only a volume-backed close above 87,500 will bring 89,000–90,000 into view. After a sharp rise, chasing the tail end is the biggest risk. $ETH is around 2,732, with 2,700–2,710 as initial support. 2,750 is the short-term gate; only a break and hold above it can we talk about 2,780–2,800. If it falls behind, it indicates funds still favor BTC. $SOL is around 121–123, with 120 as the defense line. The upper range 123–124 will be tested first; if it holds, then look at 125–128. Current ranking: BTC eyes 86,000, ETH eyes 2,750, SOL eyes 124. A strong rise today doesn’t mean a win; only if the breakout level can be defended tomorrow can it be considered truly strong. Thanks to the market finally giving back some old blood Continuing to work tonight Took a look at the chart below This data just makes me mentally exhausted But finally recovered some today +1360.1 Went from -7600 down to -8827 then pulled back The curve is finally turning upward Feels good October started off okay 1st +968 2nd -7600 3rd +1400 Big ups and downs But today is finally in the green This wave of short positions The timing was pretty good SAND dropped from 0.082🔥 Should you buy the dip when BTC falls? Don't rush to use up all your bullets! Currently BTC is 84810, ETH is 2679. I actually think the real focus shouldn't be on "whether this is the bottom now," but on whether key levels are holding. As long as BTC 82000 and ETH 2400 lines are not broken, the pullback can still be understood as a redistribution of chips. But there's absolutely no need to go all-in around 84800. Split your bullets, test with small positions at the current price; if BTC continues to drop to 83500-82000, then consider increasing your holdings. The most important final rule: If BTC breaks below 82000 and ETH falls below 2400, the bottom-fishing logic is invalid. At that point, don't be stubborn, and definitely don't keep buying more as prices fall. True bottom-fishing is not "holding on at all costs," but daring to catch the fall and also daring to admit mistakes. When the market offers opportunities, accumulate chips; when the logic is broken, preserve your capital. Don't let one bottom-fishing attempt use up all your bullets halfway up the mountain. The above is just my personal market notes and does not constitute trading advice. $BTC $ETH #美国9月非农仅增2.9万，失业率升至4.2% #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 If you can make profit 1500 USD per week which is 10,000 RMB what worries would you still have? Xiao Ma feels no longer any material worry, but new troubles have come. No need to fear losses, but must always stay tense and maintain state, with emotions reduced to indifference. Freed from financial difficulties, have to learn to adapt to highly restrained life and find joy outside trading. Because becoming genius trader comes from very little sleep, extreme discipline, endless loneliness, top-lev$ZEC again sideways trading day today. Two possible scenarios for continuation after sideways: Scenario 1: Breakdown (higher probability, short-term trend weak) - Trigger: Two consecutive 1H candles close below 1300, with slight increase in volume; - Target: First target 1270, if broken look for previous low 1222; - Logic: 7-day continuous weakening, bullish funds exhausted, sideways is downtrend consolidation, after shakeout will continue decline. Scenario 2: Rebound upwards (requires volume suPlaced a shallow order, let's see $ZEC long at 1225 with stop loss at 1160-1085 Take profit at 1400 and above (I'm not very optimistic about this coin, so take profit at 1400) Around 1225 is the Fibonacci 0.328 retracement level, usually there will be a pullback; the stop loss is at the gap area, and the take profit is also derived from Fibonacci Damn, what big whale? Clearly big sucker! This guy started building position a year ago (June-Aug 2025) at avg price $3040 for 6500 $ETH. At worst, underwater by over $9.55M! If it were us, we'd probably be losing sleep long ago. After holding for a year, this guy ultimately couldn't take it anymore. Today, directly deposited 6595 ETH (about $17.57M) into exchange, cutting losses and stopping bleeding. Final assets shrank 12.3%, with real loss $2.443M upon exit. This move so real — survived darkI am mid-term intelligence guy. Data focus: $BTC options expiry 30,500 contracts, Put Call Ratio 1.07, max pain 82,000, notional 2.63B; $ETH expiry 116,000 contracts, PCR 1.17, max pain 2,660, notional 320M. First week after quarterly settlement, BTC oscillated around 85k for over a week, rebounded on settlement day, with bullish large volume activity. Volatility-wise, main term IV dropped vs last week and two weeks ago, at low level for this bull; Monthly realized vol similar, risk premium decr"Layering is not diversification, it's betting on five fronts" BTC and ETH spot ETFs are flowing out simultaneously, cooling down capital enthusiasm. Many people split their positions into five layers, thinking it balances offense and defense. In fact, dividing into five layers does not equal risk diversification; it's betting on five directions at once. BTC follows capital trends, ETH relies on staking yields, XRP aims for rotation, GRASS captures hot topics, and the last layer chases breaking news. Each layer must independently match the market trend; a mistake in one layer drags down the whole. True drawdown control is never about the number of layers, but how much each layer can lose. Before layering, setting stop-losses for each layer is far more important than how you divide them. When capital cools down, don't create a false sense of security with layering. If you don't understand, move less and wait until ETFs reverse and prices stabilize. #BTC、ETH现货ETF同步转流出，资金热度降温 #Strategy再购BTC，多家财库同步增持 #SEC加密资产托管新规，拟放宽机构自托管限制 $BTC $ETH $ONE has risen steadily from a low of 0.00184 and is now standing at 0.00218. The MACD shows a bullish crossover below zero, and the CVD indicates continuous net capital inflow. Looking at the market, the bulls are indeed gathering strength. But honestly, the RSI6 has already surged to 73.9, indicating short-term overbought conditions. The resistance at 0.00221 is strong; previous attempts to break through were pushed back twice. 1. I won’t take action unless it breaks above 0.00221; chasing a high is like catching a flying knife. 2. Once there is a volume breakout above 0.00221 and a successful retest without breaking down, I will go long to ride the rally, with a tight stop loss at 0.0020. 3. If it rallies but stalls, I will immediately short to capitalize on a fake breakout pullback. In this market, it’s not about who rushes faster but who lasts longer. Only act after the breakout is confirmed. No shooting the eagle without seeing the rabbit!
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